Wasting No Time

Any concerns I had that Bill Smith and the Twins would become complacent in addressing lineup holes this offseason after enjoying a successful overall season offensively in 2009 were quickly assuaged on Friday morning when the club announced that they'd traded Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. As a relatively young shortstop who remains controllable for two more years and who has historically hit for power while playing great defense, Hardy seemed destined to be a hot commodity this winter after Milwaukee had made clear that he'd be available. Smith wasted no time in taking the 27-year-old infielder off the market, completing a swap just as the Yankees were parading through New York City to celebrate their World Series victory -- still only two days old.

That the Twins were interested in Hardy comes as no huge surprise. He's a very logical fit for this team and was in fact the very top player listed among our potential trade targets in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. Here's what I wrote about Hardy there:

Age: 27 (DOB: 8/19/82) | Contract Status: Arb Elig
2009 Stats: .229/.302/.357, 11 HR, 47 RBI

With the free agent market for shortstops looking exceedingly thin and the Twins lacking any legitimate prospects at that position, it appears that the only way to make a meaningful upgrade might be through a trade. Teams generally aren’t willing to part with capable young shortstops that are competent at the dish and in the field, but Hardy may be an exception. He is coming off a dismal offensive year, but he had averaged 25 homers and 77 RBI in the two seasons prior and he’s only 27 years old. Plus, he rates quite well defensively. The Brewers have a major-league ready SS prospect in Alcides Escobar, so they may be willing to deal Hardy even though his value is down. They’d likely seek big-league ready pitching in return.

Here's a more in-depth scouting report on Hardy, courtesy of Kyle Lobner from the Brewers blog Brew Crew Ball (you can also read a take on the trade from that blog here):

The Twins are getting a solid defensive shortstop in Hardy, but his potential contribution as an offensive player is unknown at best. After having two above average seasons in 2007 and 2008, including an All Star appearance in 2007, Hardy's stat line at the plate declined dramatically in 2009, when he posted a .659 OPS, the lowest of his major league career, with a .229/.302/.357 line.

A fair portion of Hardy's struggles last season can probably be attributed to luck: Hardy hit .264 on balls in play last season, down from .280 over the course of his career, and only connected for home runs on 8.3% of his fly balls, down from his 11.2% career total. However, it's hard to blame all of Hardy's struggles on luck: His line drive percentage has dropped in each of the last four seasons, from 19% in 2006 all the way down to 13.9% last season. Hardy had some tough luck early, hitting a lot of line drives at defenders, but never seemed to recover or make the adjustments necessary to regain his stride. He also doesn't take many pitches; his career walk rate is just 8.3% and his career OBP is .323.

Even if Hardy doesn't bounce back offensively, he's a very good defensive shortstop. FanGraphs has him listed as saving 29.7 runs in the field over the last three seasons, good for roughly three wins. There's another interesting note in those numbers, though: Hardy saved 14.8 runs in 2007, 8.2 in 2008 and 6.7 in 2009. While Hardy's 30 runs saved over the last three seasons ranked sixth among major league shortstops during that span, his 6.7 last season was outside the top ten. His UZR/150 over the last three seasons have been 16.7, 8.5 and 8.8.

You might think a guy as defensively gifted as Hardy would have to have some pretty notable athletic ability but you'd be wrong, at least when it comes to running speed. Hardy might be one of major league baseball's slowest shortstops. He frequently looks like he's dragging an anchor behind him on the basepaths, and struggles to take the extra base in situations where a runner with average speed would get in easily. He also only turned 7 ground balls into infield hits in 2009 - that 4.5% was the sixth lowest among shortstops with at least 460 PAs.

Hardy will likely get a raise in arbitration, even if it is a small one, and made $4.65 million in 2009. With that said, the Brewers' decision to demote Hardy to AAA for 20 days in August pushed his arbitration clock back a year, and he'll be under the Twins' control for two more seasons, should they decide to hang onto him.

Many were surprised that the pitching-starved Brewers didn't move Hardy in return for a young starter (I had suggested Glen Perkins, whose name may or may not have come up in these discussions depending on who you listen to), but Gomez fills a need as well. With Mike Cameron departing, the Brewers were looking for another strong defensive center fielder, and they'll hope that with regular playing time in 2010 he can start to realize his offensive potential while tracking down everything between left and right.

Reaction to this trade from Twins fans has been overwhelmingly positive, and with good reason. As mentioned in my writeup from the Handbook and in Lobner's report, Hardy had been an excellent hitter during the two seasons prior to 2009. It is, however, difficult to ignore the struggles that the shortstop experienced during this past season. There was no major injury to explain away his dismal hitting, and with a strikeout rate that has jumped for three straight seasons, there are some who believe his drop-off last year was no fluke. If he is unable to improve somewhat significantly on his disappointing production in '09, Hardy will hardly be the dramatic upgrade this team is looking for at the bottom of the lineup. But the Twins certainly seem confident that he can rebound, and his power potential is very intriguing for a club that hasn't gotten a .400 slugging percentage from the shortstop position since 2001 and hasn't had a 20-HR hitter there since 1979.

The loss of Gomez is being downplayed by many who have grown tired of his mental mistakes and offensive ineptitude, but his departure is not insignificant. Twins' pitchers allowed the highest fly ball percentage of any team in the majors this year, and that doesn't figure to change significantly next season. In trading Gomez, the Twins seem to be committing to an outfield alignment of Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer, which represents an incredibly vast downgrade from the Span/Gomez/Cuddyer alignment. Hardy is a better defensive player than anyone the Twins trotted out at shortstop this season, but given the nature of this pitching staff, swapping out Gomez for Hardy will likely lead to an overall drop in defensive proficiency.

Of course, Gomez's slick glove doesn't do much good when he's stuck on the bench, and Gardenhire seemed to have made up his mind on which young outfielder he was going to commit to by the end of the year. In September and October, as the Twins made a furious dash for the playoffs, Young started in the outfield 26 times; Gomez only eight. For better or for worse, Gomez had become the fourth outfielder on this club, and any time you can trade a reserve player for a starting shortstop you've done pretty well for yourself.

Hardy is a nice addition with the potential to provide serious power from the bottom of the lineup (or perhaps the No. 2 spot, if Gardenhire feels so misguidedly inclined) while likely upgrading the team's defense at one of the most important spots on the field. Gomez's departure also seemingly finalizes the club's outfield situation, effectively putting an end to the tired Gomez vs. Young debates. Second base and third base remain uncertain, along with at least one spot in the pitching rotation, so Smith's work is hardly done. But, less than a week into the offseason, he has already gotten a running start on his work for this pivotal offseason. Meanwhile, he has very quickly put to rest any worries that he'd be sitting on his hands as the team prepares to defend its AL Central title in the first year at Target Field.

Smith deserves credit for this bold, aggressive move. Even if it does mean that one of my very favorite Twins players will be suiting up across the border next season.

Twins Trade Gomez for Hardy

Bill Smith made his first big offseason splash today, sending Carlos Gomez to the Brewers in return for shortstop J.J. Hardy, who was a suggested trade acquisition in my offseason blueprint. The deal swaps two players who both saw their value drop with rough seasons in 2009, though surely Hardy has proven more at the major-league level.

My initial reaction is that I'm very sorry to see Gomez go, as he was a personal favorite, and I'm very concerned about the team's outfield defense over the next few seasons. But perhaps the writing was on the wall during a month of September in which the Twins were making a fierce charge and Gomez was seeing virtually no playing time.

I'll have plenty more analysis of the move, and a more thorough breakdown of Hardy, on Monday.

Overreactions

Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse had an article in yesterday's paper laying out his offseason plan for the recently eliminated Twins. The first two steps on his list (both plastered on the title of the column): Trading Joe Nathan, demoting Carlos Gomez.

My problem with Reusse's suggestions isn't so much that they are unreasonable; one can make an argument that this is the right time to move Nathan and it's certainly fair to say that Gomez needs some more time in Triple-A. My problem is that I fully believe Reusse -- like many other Twins fans -- is basing his current convictions on the small sample size provided by the past week's playoff series against the Yankees. Had Gomez batted .400 and made a game-saving catch during the series, or had Nathan pitched lights-out in his two appearances, I sincerely doubt we'd be seeing the columnist clamoring for their dismissal from Minnesota. That's not a good way to make personnel decisions.

Many people are frustrated with the handful of players who are perceived to be heavily responsible to the Twins' defeat. In particular, I've seen plenty of folks directing vitriol at Nathan, and the "Trade Nathan" bandwagon seems to be gaining steam on numerous fronts. But it's important to keep in mind how heavily the deck was stacked against the Twins and many of their players in this series. Yes, Nathan blew an opportunity for the Twins to even the series on Friday night by blowing a two-run lead in the bottom of the ninth. But it's not like he gave up a walk-off grand slam to David Eckstein. Nathan was facing the heart of baseball's best lineup in a hostile stadium. He walked one of the league's elite offensive players -- a likely top three MVP finisher -- and then gave up a home run to one of the most accomplished hitters in baseball history. It was tough, but it happens, and Nathan was hardly the only closer to struggle in the first round of this postseason.

It sort of astonishes me that this unfortunate turn of events has so quickly caused fans to sour on a guy who turned in a 2.10 ERA and 11.7 K/9 rate while notching 47 saves this season. Are people really forgetting that there was a stretch this year where Nathan went 24 straight appearances without allowing a run? That he was the steady rock for much of the year in an often erratic bullpen? He seemed to wear down at the end of the year, yes, but Nathan can still pitch and his contributions this season were absolutely elemental to the team's success. He remains one of the game's very best closers in spite of some rough patches against an offensive juggernaut in New York.

Laughably, Reusse's candidates for replacing Nathan are Jose Mijares -- who was playing over his head for much of the year and who looked worse than almost any Twins reliever over the final week -- and Pat Neshek -- who hasn't thrown a pitch since early 2008. If Twins fans are annoyed now by having a mostly dominant closer who gives up a couple runs every now and then, I hate to think how they'd react to the number of ninth-inning leads that would slip away under that inferior pairing. It's almost like we've become spoiled around these parts; Nathan has been so good for much of the year that any team he gives up a lead it gets blown wildly out of proportion. An outside observer would have no trouble noticing that Nathan was one of the very best in the league this year at converting slim ninth-inning leads into victories, just like he has been in past years. It is unfortunate that a couple of his rare misfires had to come at such inopportune times, but no pitcher is perfect.

The Twins have performed terribly in the postseason ever since 2003. This understandably causes fans to grow exceptionally frustrated when they are forced to suffer through another quick first-round exit. But understand that while Nathan did blow that Game 2 save and subsequently allow a couple crucial insurance runs across in Game 3, he was facing a powerhouse offense that any pitcher is liable to get nailed by. Understand that while Gomez struggled at the plate and made a costly baserunning error, he was just a kid who'd barely played over the past month, in over his head on the biggest of stages and in the harshest of environments. Understand that while Jason Kubel looked completely overwhelmed at the plate in this series, he drew unfavorable starts against two tough left-handed pitchers along with one of the league's best right-handed strikeout pitchers. That while Nick Punto committed a rather inexcusable error on the basepaths, he had been a key contributor over the rest of the series.

There's a tendency to dwell on the negatives at a time like this, but the Twins did hold their own in that series, largely thanks to some stellar contributions from Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, Joe Mauer, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer. The challenges those players faced should only be magnified by the struggles experienced by some of their teammates, and those strong performances should not be forgotten.

The time will come during this offseason to make many important decisions about the future of this ballclub. But don't let the disappointing outcome of a three-game series shade your viewpoint on these decisions too much.

Word From Up Top?

Having watched Ron Gardenhire manage this team for the past seven years, we've grown pretty familiar with his tendencies and preferences. We know his tactics, we know how he likes to fill out a lineup, we know how he likes to utilize his bullpen. We also definitely know that there is a particular type of player that Gardenhire especially likes, and that he is generally much more likely to have a longer leash with players who fall into this mold.

Gardenhire, much like the Twins as an organization, values good defensive players. He likes guys that play hard and hustle. If he likes a player, you'll frequently hear him refer to that player as "scrappy," or you'll see him talk about how the player "battles his tail off." Gardenhire also likes players who have a positive influence in the clubhouse. Offensive production often takes a back seat to these factors in the mind of the Twins' manager, which is why Nick Punto remained a regular player for the entirety of his disastrous 2007 season. It's also why Matt Tolbert has immediately seized the starting second base job and second spot in the lineup while Brendan Harris still must fight for playing time. I've always figured that Gardy's affinity for this type of player is based on the fact that he himself was a light-hitting hustle guy when he played in the big leagues.

Given Gardenhire's historical tendencies, I'm having a very difficult time understanding why he has seemingly elected to make Delmon Young his starting left fielder while relegating Carlos Gomez to a bench role as a fourth outfielder and late-game defensive replacement. Obviously I think Gomez should be the team's starting center fielder, and I don't suspect that Gardenhire would agree for the same reasons. I doubt he's aware that Wins Above Replacement (a statistic which incorporates both offense and defense) shows Gomez as an above-average player up to this point, with his advantage over Young being roughly equivalent to Justin Morneau's advantage over Michael Cuddyer. I also doubt that Gardenhire knows -- or cares -- that there are articles out there concluding that Denard Span is worth 37 runs over Young in left field. But being that Gomez plays fantastic defense, hustles all over the field, maintains an enthusiastic clubhouse demeanor and is built to do all the little things (bunting, stealing, etc.), it baffles me that Gardenhire is choosing to bench Gomez in favor of Young, who doesn't seem to embody any of those qualities. There's one theory I keep coming back to: he's not.

During the offseason, it was widely reported that the Twins were aggressively shopping Young. Several reporters who covered the winter meetings got the sense that the chances of Young being on the Twins' Opening Day roster this season were outweighed by the chances he wouldn't be. Of course, he didn't end up being moved, and the reason for that could very well be that no other general managers were offering much for the former top prospect, who was coming off his second straight disappointing major-league season.

So, perhaps the Twins are still interested in moving Young. And perhaps the knowledge that Young has no chance of ramping up his trade value while sitting on the bench has motivated Bill Smith and the front office to influence Gardenhire's decision-making process. If regular playing time could put Young on some sort of hot streak, it might pique the interest of teams searching for a right-handed bat.

There are plenty of smart people who disagree with my opinion that Gomez should be ahead of Young on the outfield depth chart, and there have been a number of reasonable points used in support of that particular view. But none of these reasons seem like the type that would be used by the Gardenhire that I've come to know. I've got to believe there's more going on here than meets the eye.

Demote Gomez?

Now that Alexi Casilla has been sent to the minors, there have been many calls amongst Twins fans for a follow-up move: a demotion for Carlos Gomez. Howard Sinker went on the record for this cause back in mid-April, and now it seems that everywhere I look -- be it Twins Geek, Seth Speaks, Bleacher Bums, or any number of message boards and comments sections -- fans are clamoring for Gomez to be shipped to Rochester.

I disagreed with Howard a few weeks ago and I still disagree with this sentiment now -- perhaps even more so.

Gomez could probably benefit from some time in Triple-A, I get that. But given that the Twins haven't exactly been playing stellar baseball lately, their main concern at this point ought to be putting the best possible team on the field. Since sending Gomez down would mean regular playing time for Delmon Young, the question becomes which player makes the team better. I think it's almost impossible to argue that point in Young's favor right now.

Clearly, Gomez is a far more valuable defensive player. I've discussed that fact ad nauseum and I don't think there's much debate about it. Certainly, opinions differ as to how much more valuable he is in the field, but there's no denying that the Twins' defense is better with Gomez in center and Denard Span in left than with Span in center and Young in left. Personally, I think that the latter configuration is significantly worse and far more straining on the pitching staff. Others don't believe the gap is that large, or that important.

So, with Gomez clearly bringing more value defensively and on the basepaths, Young needs to be outhitting him in order to justify his spot in the lineup. Is he? Not really -- not by a substantial margin anyway.

Prior to last night's game, Young's OPS was a whopping 10 points higher than that of Gomez. That margin increased a bit with Young's three-hit game last night, but of course all three hits were singles. Young has only two extra-base hits this season (Gomez has five); combine that with a lack of patience and his batting average is about as empty as they get. In spite of his solid .288 average, Young's OPS stands at 671 after last night's game -- bad for anyone, but terrible for a poor-fielding corner outfielder.

One might point to recent trends as the reason Young deserves playing time over Gomez. After all, they might note, Young has eight hits in his last 20 at-bats. But that angle doesn't work, because Gomez has nine hits in his last 20 at-bats. And while all of Young's eight hits were singles, Gomez has mixed three doubles in. AND while Young has posted a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span, Gomez struck out only four times while walking twice.

I don't doubt that some time in Rochester might do Gomez a bit of good, but the Twins have now lost five of their past six games and they need to be focused on putting the players on the field who will help them win. I'm not seeing anything to convince me that Young is helping the team more than Gomez right now. Apparently Ron Gardenhire is, because Gomez has started only three of the Twins' last 13 games. While he was away from the team for a couple days to be with his wife, who was giving birth to their first child, that remains a ridiculous rate of play for the still-developing 23-year-old.

If Gardy is going to relegate Gomez to the bench, then he should be sent down to the minors so he can play regularly. But the plain and simple fact is that Gomez should be starting, and Young should be the fourth outfielder.

Tuesday Notes

Lately it seems I've been spending all my time breaking down prospect performances, marveling at Joe Mauer's greatness and complaining about Alexi Casilla, so today I'll get caught up on a wide range of Twins-related topics with a bunch of notes...

* For those who wonder why I put so much value into Carlos Gomez's center field defense, Sunday's game provides a good example.

In the seventh inning, with the Twins leading 5-3, Luis Ayala came in to relieve Scott Baker with two on and nobody out. Ayala promptly surrendered a line drive to deep left center field, and the ball sailed past the outstretched glove of a diving Denard Span. Two runs scored, tying the game. In the next inning, Jose Guillen hit a liner to deep center; Span again chased the ball but had it bounce of his glove and off the wall for an RBI double. Now, this is just my opinion, but I believe that both of these balls would have been caught were Gomez in center field. That's not a dig against Span, who made a hell of an effort on both plays, but Gomez's range is unparalleled among players on this team and I've seen him run down balls hit to those areas on numerous occasions.

So, that's three runs that may have been prevented from scoring if Gomez were in the game, and perhaps the difference between a win and a loss. Now, given that neither of these plays occurred with two outs in the inning, it's entirely possible that all those runs would have scored anyway. All of these hypotheticals and probabilities are part of what makes defense so difficult to measure and value.

* Of course, we wouldn't be talking about who could hypothetically catch these monstrous 400-foot line drives if Ayala and R.A. Dickey weren't allowing them in the first place. The Twins bullpen has been rather disastrous so far, and these two are clearly looking like the weakest links. It's early yet, but Ayala has thus far proven to be a horrible signing and there's not much reason to hope he'll improve a whole lot. In spite of his misguided "sinkerballer" label, Ayala has induced ground balls at a mediocre 41.9 percent rate while opponents have slugged .556 against him.

Dickey, meanwhile, has remarkably allowed 10 of 12 inherited runners to score while posting a 2.19 WHIP and 10-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13 2/3 innings. His vaunted rubber arm hasn't even been particularly useful, as he's appeared just four times in the Twins past 14 games and totaled just five innings during that span. It's awfully tough to see what value Dickey has for this team, which is why I was somewhat frustrated when the Twins demoted and risked losing Philip Humber to waivers a couple weeks ago in order to preserve Dickey's spot on the big-league roster.

* Gomez was held out of the Twins' starting lineup for the sixth time in the past seven games last night, while Alexi Casilla once again started and batted second. Baffling.

Gomez has gotten off to a rough start offensively this year, but Casilla's been considerably worse. It's inexplicable that Ron Gardenhire is showing so much confidence in one while burying the other. It can't be that Casilla is doing "the little things," as he cost the Twins a game on Saturday night with a careless error in the field, and last night hit into an infuriurating double play because he failed to run to first base on a popped-up bunt attempt.

Casilla was only moderately more productive at the plate than Gomez last season, and Gomez brings much more defensive value when he's in the lineup. There's no reason Casilla should getting such preferential treatment.

* While Baker worked through six innings of hitless ball to start Sunday afternoon's game, I observed multiple fans complaining about Dick Bremer repeatedly making mention of the no-hit bid on the television broadcast. I find it somewhat amusing that rational, adult baseball fans -- even the statistically oriented ones who I'd hardly describe as traditionalists -- can get so worked up over a silly superstition.

I can buy into the idea that some superstitions may yield actual benefits. If a player wears the same "lucky socks" for every night game, perhaps on some deep mental level it gives them an extra measure of comfort or confidence while they're playing. But the notion that a pitcher's bid for a no-hitter can be sabotaged by a random announcer in the press box or a random fan in the stands mentioning the fact that he hasn't allowed a hit yet is downright ridiculous. Bremer is a commentator and his job is to talk about what's happening in the game, not ignore the biggest storyline in observance of an arbitrary superstition.

* Seth Stohs has been on a roll lately when it comes to recruiting podcast guests. Last Thursday, he had Glen Perkins sit in as co-host for the MN Gamenight show. Last night, for his own SethSpeaks.net weekly podcast, Seth was able to recruit Pat Neshek, Democrat and Chronicle scribe Jim Mandelaro (an authority on the Twins' Triple-A affiliate), and -- most impressively -- me.

OK, obviously I'm the least impressive name on that outstanding list of guests, but both shows are definitely worth listening to for Seth and the other guys. Check them out.

On Gomez and the Bullpen

Sorry for the lack of blogging this week, but the team's play over the last few days hasn't exactly inspired me to find time in what has been a busy schedule to write about them. Scott Baker's much-anticipated return on Wednesday night turned out to be a dud (reminding us that spring training performances aren't always totally without significance) and the Twins dropped three of four at home against the Blue Jays while getting outscored 31-13. Ouch.

Today I'll address a couple things that have been popular subjects of conversation amongst Twins fans here early in the season: Carlos Gomez and the bullpen.

First, let's talk about Go-Go. He's started his season with another of his signature slumps, managing just three hits in 29 at-bats for a dreadful .103/.133/.207 hitting line. Howard Sinker yesterday suggested that the Twins send Gomez to Triple-A to work on his swing, reasoning that "there’s no way (other than the “give him time, he’ll snap out of it” speech) that playing Gomez regularly can be justified right now."

Well, that's not really true. Given the fly ball tendencies of the Twins pitching staff, one could argue that center field is the most important defensive position on the field for this team (aside from catcher). And Gomez covers more ground in center than perhaps any other player in the league. Right now, Gomez is serving what I'd call the "Adam Everett role" -- that is, playing stellar defense at a crucial position while offering next to nothing offensively -- but in his prime Everett was a pretty valuable player. And we know Gomez is capable of doing more than Everett with the bat.

In spite of his offensive struggles, Gomez has still looked very good in center field. And sending him to Rochester leaves the Twins with an outfield alignment (per Sinker's suggestion) of Jason Kubel, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer against right-handers, or the latter two and Delmon Young against left-handers. Those are both humongous defensive downgrades from the Span-Gomez-Cuddyer alignment, and would saddle an already struggling pitching staff with another disadvantage. Improving the offense is an important task right now, but by removing Gomez as a regular the Twins would be addressing this issue at the expense of another important task, which is getting better results from their pitchers.

I don't doubt that Gomez would probably benefit from some time in Triple-A, but his presence on this team remains important even when he's struggling with the bat, and the idea that he serves the Twins no benefit right now is simply false. He's been a huge liability in the lineup up to this point, but I'm confident he'll turn it around and I have a hard time singling him out when so many of this team's hitters are struggling. His utility right now is in run prevention, which is no less important than run scoring.

Speaking of run prevention, it figured to be a major strength for the Twins this season but they haven't done a very good job of it thus far, allowing an average of 6.2 runs per game over their first 11 contests. Certainly, that falls heavily on the starting rotation, which has been roundly underwhelming with the exception of Glen Perkins. But these kids are going to bounce back. They are too talented to pitch like this for much longer, and last night's game looked like a solid step in the right direction for Francisco Liriano.

The larger concern is the bullpen. Joe Nathan and Jesse Crain have looked good, but outside of them it seems that nobody in this bullpen can be relied upon to get any outs. Last night, Ron Gardenhire turned to the bullpen in a one-run game after getting six solid innings from Liriano only to watch Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow and R.A. Dickey combine to surrender seven runs in a disastrous seventh inning. Guerrier had pitched pretty well in his first few outings but reverted to 2008 form last night as his ERA ballooned to 8.44 ERA. Breslow has apparently forgotten how to find the strike zone -- he's thrown 39 pitches this year and only 16 of them have been strikes. Dickey looks like every bit the hittable junk tosser he has been throughout his career. Luis Ayala pitched decently last night but has been extremely unimpressive overall with a 7.36 ERA and .394 opponents' batting average.

The struggles of mop-up guys like Dickey and Philip Humber aren't overly concerning, but Guerrier, Breslow and Ayala are being relied upon as key components of this bullpen, and if their struggles continue, the Twins are going to have to start looking at replacement options. In Rochester, Jose Mijares has gotten his season off to a strong start, allowing just one hit and zero walks over his first 5 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, in New Britain, Rob Delaney has allowed three hits while posting a 9-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 5 1/3 innings, and Anthony Slama has allowed one hit in four innings with a 7-to-1 K/BB ratio. It's still very early, obviously, but all three of these relievers have good arms and are coming off great seasons, so there's little reason to think they won't continue to succeed. If they can keep dominating while the big-league bullpen continues to struggle, the Twins should not hesitate to recall Mijares, or to promote Slama and/or Delaney to Triple-A... or perhaps even straight to the majors.

Position Analysis: Center Field

Likely Starter: Carlos Gomez
2008 Stats: .258/.296/.360, 7 HR, 59 RBI

Gomez is already an elite fielder, but must add more offense to become a star.

Potential Backups: Denard Span, Jason Pridie

I've made no secret of it: Carlos Gomez is my favorite Twin. That affinity is probably based more on emotion than logic. Sure, I think there's a tremendous amount of value in his ability to cover more range in center field than perhaps any other player in the league. And of course I can't help but love the potential packed into his athletic frame. But more than anything, I just find Gomez to be an immensely entertaining person. His quotes in the paper frequently crack me up. He is perpetually smiling on the field. His awesome speed allows him to flag down balls in the outfield that seem uncatchable, and to beat out the throw to first on seemingly routine plays.

Yep, I am a huge fan of Gomez. But there is no overlooking his gaping flaws, and it's impossible not to worry that they will continue to prevent him from blossoming into the incredible player who could ideally become.

Gomez's approach at the plate last season was atrocious. He struck out nearly six times for every walk, making his 3-to-1 ratio in the minors look downright reasonable, and went down flailing at that same down-and-away breaking ball seemingly once or twice per game. After going 16-for-18 on stolen bases in his first 32 games, he went just 17-for-26 in his final 121 games. Most troublesome were his painful, prolonged slumps at the plate, most notably a 30-game stretch in June/July where he hit .183/.219/.237, prompting a demotion from the lead-off spot to the No. 9 slot in the order.

On the bright side, Gomez did seem considerably more comfortable hitting in the nine-hole, where he posted a .286/.328/.400 while striking out at a slightly lower rate and stealing bases more successfully. Gomez is set to open the season batting last in the order, so hopefully he's able to show similar comfort and produce the same way he did last year.

If Gomez can keep his batting average up in the .280 range while adding a bit of power (something he's shown signs of this spring) and playing the same fantastic defense he did last year, he will be a very valuable asset for this team. If he fails to make strides offensively, his defensive value still makes him a deserving regular. He's got a long ways to go before he reaches the superstar status, but in my mind there's no question that Gomez deserves to be the starting center fielder for the Twins.

And that's not just because he's so fun to watch.

Predicted 2009 Hitting Line: .275/.320/.390, 12 HR, 45 RBI

Taking the Lead

In nine seasons since the turn of the century, the Twins have posted a winning record seven times and made the playoffs four times while watching their players hoist two Cy Young Awards and one MVP. During this run, the Twins have found a great deal of success and featured many great players. Yet, one thing has always seemingly been missing, and it is a quintessential component of any quality baseball club. The Twins have had their dominant aces, their automatic closers, their outstanding No. 3 hitters and their run-producing cleanup men, but during this span they have always been unable to pinpoint a true, great leadoff hitter.

Since they traded Chuck Knoblauch after the 1998 season, locating a true, prototypical leadoff man has been a difficult task for the Twins. A great leadoff hitter ought to possess a specific set of skills. He should be patient and willing to take pitches. He should have great speed, so that he can move himself into scoring position with steals and score from second on singles. Most importantly, he should be able to reach base at an exceptional clip so he that he is frequently aboard for the team's most productive hitters in the middle of the lineup. A little power doesn't hurt, but isn't generally considered a requirement. In general, the leadoff man should just be a great hitter, because ultimately he'll get more chances to bat than any other player in the lineup.

When the Twins began their successful run at the beginning of the decade, their leadoff man was Cristian Guzman. Guzie had some success in those days, but with his poor .299 on-base percentage in 2000 and his mediocre .337 OBP in 2001, he was hardly the ideal candidate to receive the most at-bats on the team. Late in the '01 season, the Twins handed the leadoff gig to Matt Lawton, and he was actually pretty well-suited for it. Unfortunately, his time there was short, as he was shipped to the Mets in return for Rick Reed during the following offseason.

In 2002, the Twins inserted Jacque Jones in the leadoff spot. Jones had a very nice offensive season that year, batting .300/.341/.511, but as a free swinger with impressive power and a lack of top-end speed, he looked much more like a No. 3 hitter than a leadoff man. Jones held the top spot in the lineup throughout the '02 campaign and into 2003, but midway through that season the Twins determined that they needed a change at the top. So they traded Bobby Kielty for Shannon Stewart, who had spent the past five seasons as a high-caliber leadoff man for the Blue Jays. Stewart provided a jolt for the '03 Twins, getting on base at a .384 clip while hitting for solid average and power down the stretch. Stewart continued as an effective leadoff hitter in 2004, batting .304/.380/.447, but he was limited to just 92 games due to a foot injury. And while Stewart's offensive production was very good in his early days with the Twins, the excellent speed he'd shown earlier in his career was gone; Stewart was just 9-for-16 on stolen base attempts in 157 games between 2003 and 2004.

Injuries continued to derail Stewart in 2005 and his production took a dive. He spent most of the year in the leadoff spot, but saw his OBP dropped to .323 as his once-impressive plate discipline evaporated. After posting a 36-to-25 strikout-to-walk ratio with the Twins in 2003 and a 44-to-47 K/BB in 2004, Stewart fanned 73 times while drawing just 34 walks in '05. At the end of the season, the Twins were once again in search of a quality leadoff hitter.

Terry Ryan sought to solve the problem that winter by trading a pair of prospects for Luis Castillo. Earlier in his career, Castillo had been almost the perfect embodiment of a prototype leadoff hitter. Capable of batting from both sides of the plate, Castillo had a patient approach that routinely yielded on-base percentages in the high-300s, and was also an elite base-stealer as well as a Gold Glove defender. Yet, by the time the 30-year-old Castillo had joined the Twins, his knees had worn down and he was no longer the player he once was. In 2006, Castillo got on base at a .358 clip while swiping 25 bases -- solid yet unremarkable numbers for a leadoff man. In 2007, Castillo's knees were in even worse shape. He continued to display a good eye at the plate, but was visibly hobbled running down the first base line and had turned into an extreme chop hitter with virtually no power. The Twins dumped him midway through the season, allowing Jason Bartlett and Alexi Casilla to split leadoff duties down the stretch, though neither performed well enough to seize the spot.

Last year, the Twins opened the season with Carlos Gomez manning the leadoff slot. A tremendous athlete with potential to hit for power and perhaps more footspeed than any other player in the league, Gomez had some of the attributes one would look for in a top-of-the-order bat, but his complete lack of patience at the plate and his inability to reach base at even a respectable rate made him a poor candidate for the job.

By mid-July, Gomez's on-base percentage was hovering around .280 and it was clear to just about everyone that the time had come for a change at the top of the lineup. A replacement came in the form of Denard Span, who took the job and ran with it. After taking over leadoff duties on July 22, Span batted .282/.375/.424. In his major-league debut last season, Span displayed all those skills associated with a prototypical leadoff man. He displayed great patience and discipline, racking up nearly as many walks (50) as strikeouts (60) in 93 games. He flashed impressive speed, stealing 18 bases on 25 attempts. He even flashed some power, clubbing 29 extra-base hits in 347 at-bats. All this as a 24-year-old rookie still acclimating to big-league play.

Span enters the 2009 season as the de facto leadoff man. What remains to be seen is whether he can be a long-term fixture in that spot, or whether he'll fizzle out or be dealt to another team, as have nearly all his predecessors. There is some reason to be conservative in projecting Span, who carries a mostly underwhelming minor-league track record. Yet, Span's abrupt turnaround shows signs of legitimacy. After four unimpressive months in Triple-A to start the 2007 season, Span hit .330/.420/.417 with a notable increase in plate discipline, and he carried that momentum forward into an outstanding full 2008 campaign. While one should remain cautious in assessing Span's future, there is plenty of reason for optimism.

The Twins have had an awfully difficult time finding a legitimate player to fill their leadoff role, but in Span they might have a consistent, reliable option over several years. That's something they've lacked since Knoblauch's departure, and could be a key to taking the Twins lineup to the next level.

One Half Game

In this season, who would have ever thought that a victory as big as last night's would come down to an exceptional performance from the bullpen, highlighted by a guy with a 5.96 ERA and a 23-year-old with six innings of major-league experience? Maybe it shouldn't be that surprising. After all, this has been a year of unexpected contributions for the Twins. But now this crazy season has led the Twins here: half a game out of first place with four left to play, and in position to overtake the division lead with a win tomorrow night.

Bouncing back from a pair of rough starts (which, it should be noted, both came on the road against solid offenses), Blackburn tossed five innings of two-run ball in the biggest game of his career. He was hardly dazzling, as indicated by the eight hits and two walks allowed, but he squirmed out of some sticky situations and handed a lead over to the bullpen.

And there we stood. In what amounted to a must-win game, the Twins were looking to their bullpen -- a unit that has been the bane of every fan's existence all year -- to protect a one-run lead for four innings.

Ron Gardenhire hardly went the conventional route. No Matt Guerrier. No Jesse Crain. No Dennys Reyes. Instead, he called upon Craig Breslow, Boof Bonser and Jose Mijares to bridge the gap to Joe Nathan. And you know what? The plan worked splendidly. The four relievers combined for four innings of one-hit, shutout ball, fending off the Sox and carrying the Twins to victory despite the offense's inability to add any insurance runs.

Gardenhire deserves signficant credit for the way he's managed in this series. He went against his better judgment in Game 1, playing Jason Kubel over Michael Cuddyer despite Cuddyer's far superior career numbers against Javier Vazquez. That move played huge dividends, as Kubel went on to have a monster night and lead a power attack from the Twins offense. Last night, Gardy went with an unconventional cast of relievers -- three guys who weren't members of the bullpen at the onset of the season -- to pitch perhaps the three most important innings of the season up to this point. And all three came through in flying colors.

The play of the game, though, came in the ninth inning after all three of those hurlers had put in their work. With Nathan on the hill trying to slam the door, A.J. Pierzynski ripped a line drive into the left-center field gap. Off the bat, this ball seemed unquestionable destined to fall in for at least a double. But as the camera flashed to that outfield, Carlos Gomez came streaking across the screen. Somehow, someway, Gomez reached up and snagged the liner in full stride. Considering the significance and the degree of difficulty, I can say without hyperbole that it was one of the very greatest catches I have ever seen.

Which is funny, because just about an hour earlier, I'd been a guest on Seth Stohs live podcast (which you can listen to here, if you're so inclined) and in response to a question about Gomez and his 2009 outlook, I made an emphatic point that a great deal of the center fielder's value was tied up in his phenomenal defense. It seems like poetic justice that just a few innings later he reinforced my point by making such a fantastic, perhaps season-saving catch.

Just an awesome game. And tonight the Twins can finish their improbable rise to first place by completing the sweep. They'll get a much more favorable match-up with Kevin Slowey squaring off against Gavin Floyd. And, in a devastating example of poetic injustice, I won't be able to watch it. Nor any of what figures to be a colossally important series against the Royals this weekend. For this morning at 6:10 am I will be boarding a plane and, as the Dropkick Murphys would say, "shipping up to Boston." It figures that when the four most exciting regular-season games in my memory take place, I'll be thousands of miles away on a trip I planned long ago. But I'll be keeping a watchful eye from the East Coast, and I'll be back with a full report on everything come Monday morning.

The Twins have muscled their way right back into the thick of the race with a couple magical games at the Metrodome over the past two days. But the journey is far from over, and now is not the time for complacency to set in. They need to maintain the fire that they've shown over the past two games, both tonight and over the weekend.

I will return from Boston on Sunday evening. I sure hope there will be some more Twins baseball for me to watch.

Top to Bottom

Carlos Gomez got his first full major-league season off to a pretty decent start this year. Through the first two months, he was batting .282/.315/.411, and along the way he'd stolen 17 bases and hit for the cycle on one occasion. He had been an igniter at the top of the Twins lineup, gaining a great deal of fanfare and seemingly earning his way into Ron Gardenhire's favor.

Things have been rough for Gomez since the end of May. Entering last night's game, he had hit .207/.244/.271 since June 1, striking out more than six times for every walk and getting thrown out stealing as often as he successfully swiped a bag during that span. Gomez's horrendous on-base percentage had become a liability at the top of the lineup, and with Denard Span returning to the Twins as an on-base machine, Twins fans became more and more irritated with Gardenhire's refusal to make a lineup adjustment.

Gardenhire steadfastly stood by his lead-off hitter for quite a while, claiming he didn't want to damage the excitable 22-year-old's confidence, but last night the manager finally relented and slid Gomez down to the ninth spot in the batting order while penciling in Span as the lead-off hitter.

The results weren't exactly game-breaking. The Twins lost 8-2, continuing their ineptitude at Yankee Stadium. Yet, Span reached base in three of his four plate appearances, going 2-for-3 with a walk. He took pitches and worked ahead in the count in three of his four trips to the dish. Simply put, he looked like a much better fit in the lead-off spot than Gomez. Of course, that much was obvious when you simply compared the two players' on-base percentages.

Swapping Span's and Gomez's spots in the lineup isn't going to make an earth-shattering difference in the team's offensive production. But, it is a very logical move and one that I'm glad to see Gardenhire finally make. Gomez can feel a little less pressure batting at the bottom of the lineup, while Span can put his on-base skills to use by batting directly in front of the team's best hitters.

Weekend Wrap-Up

Yesterday the Twins had an opportunity for a four-game sweep of the Tigers on the road that would have been a wonderful way to enter the All-Star break. Of course, given that beforehand the Twins probably would have been happy to come away from this tough seven-game road trip with four wins, winning three out of four after being swept in Boston is certainly a good thing to go into the break with.

With that, I think several observations should be kept in mind:

* While the Twins offense sputtered against Justin Verlander yesterday, they also managed to beat around two lefties they have historically struggled against in Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson, while also winning against the up-and-coming Armando Galarraga. Key players had outstanding series -- most notably Justin Morneau. Morneau went 8-for-15 with a home run, three doubles, four runs scored and five walks. It was both impressive and enjoyable to see Morneau have much better at-bats against the types of lefties he has struggled against in the past.

* In total, the Twins scored 18 runs over the four-game series and certainly were in all the games. Its tempting to look at the fact that all the wins were close ones (7-6, 6-5, 3-2) and think that could show some luck, but the ways the games were won should keep fans excited. For instance, in Friday's win, the Twins hitters showed much better patience, taking a total of seven walks between Morneau, Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel, Nick Punto, and Denard Span. If the Twins hitters are showing better patience, it bodes much better for sustainability than a high average in situational hitting. Of course, when it comes to patience, no one on the Twins has been in the same vicinity as Mauer, as he drew four walks over the series to give him a total of 53 and an on-base percentage of .418 (Isolated Discipline of 0.96 as well). That puts him on pace for an amazing 95 walks and gives him the second best OBP in the AL. Pretty impressive, but then again, he's an All-Star for a reason. (Unlike other All-Star catchers who happen to be "captains.")

* The Twins also did see some good pitching from young guys like Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins. Blackburn took the loss yesterday, but he didn't pitch poorly by any means. Seventy out of his 108 pitches were strikes and he got through seven innings having given up only five hits and two walks while striking out four. Blackburn's stats don't jump out at you too much, but the 3.65 ERA and 1.27 WHIP are good, while the 64/18 K/BB ratio is even better.

* Glen Perkins also had a good start, even as his peripherals have projected him to start struggling soon. Perkins wasn't amazing in Friday's win, but he did have a Quality Start, going 6 2/3 innings, giving up six hits and two runs with two walks and two strikeouts. The 95 hits he's given up in 78 1/3 innings isn't particular good, and neither is the 1.46 WHIP, .301 BAA, or the lack of strikeouts. However, he has been a solid starter this year and if he can be good for Quality Starts, there is no reason to get down on him too much yet.

* If there is one not-so-positive thing to take from this weekend, it's Carlos Gomez's offense. It only seems to haven gotten significantly worse. He went 1-for-18 with an RBI and 5 strikeouts in the series and did not draw a single walk. His line is now down to .253/.287/.351. A 638 OPS is bad enough, but a .287 OBP for a lead-off hitter is just hideously awful. Perhaps the All-Star break will do him some good, but it would be better if the break did some good for Gardenhire's decision making so he can finally do everyone a favor and remove Gomez from the leadoff spot. Of course, in an effort not to be too much a downer, I am certainly not forgetting any of the good plays Gomez has made in center recently; but, in fairness, even in that area Gomez has not been all good, all the time. It's time to make the move everyone else has been calling for and move Span or even Alexi Casilla to the lead-off spot.

* Lastly, in a bit of separate news, Morneau has filled out the roster for Home Run Derby participants. While many fans may react negatively to this, since there is an idea that somehow the Derby is an awful thing that has ruined many a baseball player, I just do not accept this premise. Players may alter their swings for it, but they just as often do that to put on shows during batting practice. That is all the competition really is: just a glorified batting practice session. Players like Miguel Tejada and Bobby Abreu didn't start going downhill because of the silly Derby. Tejada was older then most believed and was never a truly elite home run hitter to begin with and Abreu at the time had already shown signs of slowing down. So, in brief, don't fear Twins fans; Morneau will be fine. Instead of worrying, enjoy the show and hopefully he makes it to the second round.

***

If you're bored, head over to the White Sox blog Life in the Cell, where Nick Nelson has written a guest post giving Sox fans a mid-season report on the Twins.

A Crucial Victory

Kevin Slowey was the victim of another big inning yesterday, as the Tigers tagged him for five runs in the fourth inning to put the Twins in a 6-2 hole. Slowey's day was done after 3 2/3 innings, and Ron Gardenhire was forced to hand a four-run deficit against a powerful offense to his recently shaky bullpen. It certainly appeared that the Twins were on their way to a fourth straight loss, but instead, the offense resiliently battled back and the bullpen came through with some huge performances, and the Twins were able to score a 7-6 victory thanks to Justin Morneau's go-ahead solo homer in the top of the 11th.

This was a big, big win for the Twins. The team needed to regain some confidence after a 13-run loss in the series finale against the Red Sox, and the Tigers had been rapidly gaining ground in the AL Central. Here are some notes on the game, as well as some other Twins-related stuff:

* After coughing up 17 runs on 20 hits over six innings in the Boston series, the Twins bullpen rebounded in a major way yesterday as five relievers combined for 7 1/3 scoreless innings. This allowed the Twins offense to get back into the game after Slowey had put the team in a significant hole by letting in six runs over 3 2/3 innings of work.

I saw a lot of overreaction to the struggles of the Twins relief corps over the past few days. A bullpen lacking dominant power arms is bound to have bad stretches from time to time, and I think that's something that a lot of fans lost sight of with the performances provided by Pat Neshek, Dennys Reyes, Juan Rincon and others over the past several years. This isn't a bad bullpen, but it's surely not a great one, which isn't something we're used to around these parts.

* My favorite blog these days is the one maintained by Kansas City columnist Joe Posnanski. One running feature that Joe has on his blog is the "Banny Log," in which he chronicles the season of young right-hander Brian Bannister by breaking down his every start. Posnanski finds Bannister to be an interesting specimen in that he is a soft tosser with relatively unimpressive stuff who has to find creative ways to get major-league batters out. In a recent Banny Log installment after Bannister had gotten shelled by the Cardinals, Posnanski started off with the following:

The less said about this outing, the better … Brian Bannister just never did get the feel. Banny has this theory that for every 10 starts — he has two games where everything is working, two games where nothing at all is working, and the way for him to be successful pitcher is to make the most of those other six starts. Well, this was clearly one of the two bad games.

I found that interesting, and I think there are some distinct similarities between Bannister and Slowey. While Slowey has better stuff than Bannister does, neither is going to blow big-league hitters away and both must rely on locating exquisitely well and outwitting batters in order to have success. I have a lot of optimism about Slowey's future, but I do think he's the type of pitcher who will -- from time to time -- get off track and be susceptible to big innings like the ones he suffered yesterday and the start before that.

* I've made no secret of my affinity for Carlos Gomez, but even I'm going to start losing it if he stays in the leadoff spot for much longer. After going 0-for-4 in yesterday's game, Gomez has now gone hitless in his past 14 at-bats, and has reached base at a terrible .268 clip since the beginning of June. Meanwhile, Denard Span is on a mission to prove that his hot start to the season is no fluke. After reaching base in all five of his plate appearances yesterday by going 4-for-4 with a walk, Span now sports an absurd .590 on-base percentage in 10 games since rejoining the Twins roster at the end of June. He's shown very good plate discipline and unexpected proficiency against left-handers since being recalled, and has also looked much more comfortable in right field than he did during his first stint with the big-league club.

It's rare that a player completely overhauls his game at the age of 24 with five minor-league seasons under his belt, but it's certainly not unprecedented, and Span appears to be doing just that. He possesses little power, and throughout most of his entire professional career up to this point, he's been unable to excel in the other key areas of the game in order to make up for that. He'd shown mediocre on-base skills, posted poor base-stealing rates despite his speed, and during the past two seasons struck out about twice as often as he walked. Yet, over the past calendar year or so, he has made key adjustments and shown a much better approach at the plate.

Span has still only made 62 plate appearances with the Twins this season, so we're dealing with a small sample size, but combined with his strong second half in Rochester last year and his torrid start there this year, I'm loving what I'm seeing from this young man. There's no question that he should be batting first in this lineup right now.

* After going 5-for-5 with a homer and two doubles yesterday, Morneau is now batting .324/.387/.515 with 13 home runs and 68 RBI. This season is shaping up an awful lot like his MVP campaign in 2006...

* And on a final exciting note, Francisco Liriano tossed seven scoreless innings in Rochester last night, striking out eight while allowing just three hits and a walk. Over his past three starts, Liriano has pitched 20 innings without allowing a run, and has given up 10 hits and three walks while striking out 24. After working on some changes to his mechanics, the Twins have let Liriano go back to his old three-quarter arm slot, and as a result he's starting to look a whole lot more like his old dominating self. Of course, this raises concerns over him reinjuring that elbow, but for now let's just bask in his awesomeness and hope that the Twins are seriously considering subbing him in to the rotation in place of Livan Hernandez as soon as we get past the All-Star break.

Boy, I am feeling a lot better about this team than I was 24 hours ago...

Ever-Growing Gomez

As a kid at the ballpark, I was always most fascinated by speedy players who could put the ball in play and fly down the first base line. I remember being very fond of Cristian Guzman in his early days, marveling his ability to beat out routine grounders to shortstop and fly around second base to turn a textbook double into an exhilarating triple.

As I've aged and learned more about the game of baseball, I've come to realize that players who are exciting and athletically gifted sometimes do not produce enough to actually be considered "good." Nevertheless, Carlos Gomez is a player that I've always gotten giddy about. From the moment his name began to pop up in Johan Santana trade rumors, I felt pings of excitement. Back in December when Mets GM Omar Minaya told the Associated Press that he felt he could be a player in the Santana Sweepstakes, I said that while most people would likely be skeptical of a Mets package that didn't include shortstop Jose Reyes, "I'm pretty high on outfield prospects Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez (especially Gomez)." In the comments section for that post, I mentioned that Twins fans "would love having [Gomez] here -- he's a lot of fun to watch."

As the offseason progressed, Gomez's inclusion in a package for Santana became more and more realistic. On Jan. 10, Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune wrote an article mentioning that the Mets had offered Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey for Santana (a fine piece of reporting by Christensen to nail the exact package nearly three weeks in advance of the actual trade). In analyzing the proposed package, I had the following to say about Gomez:

I'm higher on Gomez than most and I like his chances to turn into a Jose Reyes type player. At 22, he's one of the fastest players in all of baseball, which makes him a very exciting player to watch, and I believe he'll build on his patience and power, both of which are fairly meager at this point. The lack of plate discipline is particularly alarming, as he'll never be able to put his blazing speed to good use unless he can get on base at a decent rate, but he is young and raw.

When Bill Smith pulled the trigger on a trade that sent Santana to the Mets for the aforementioned package, I was a bit underwhelmed with the overall return for baseball's best pitcher. Nevertheless, I was clearly glad to see Gomez's name included in the deal.

Through the first 37 games of the 2008 season, the experience of watching a 22-year-old Gomez start regularly has been everything I'd expected it to be: exciting, frustrating, humorous, torturous. He has struck out more than seven times as often as he's walked, his .299 on-base percentage is brutally inadequate for a lead-off hitter, and he's had some line drives eat him up in center field while also air-mailing numerous throws to the infield. Yet, at the same time, Gomez is tied with Justin Morneau for the team lead in extra-base hits, he is tied for the American League lead in stolen bases, and he's displayed terrific range in center field while making several Web Gem catches.

Since being benched for a day after striking out four times in an 0-for-5 effort against Oakland on April 22, Gomez has batted .333/.382/.529 with 12 runs scored and eight RBI in 12 games. The strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span (11-to-3) was still far from desirable, but Gomez has shown some improvement.

I've bristled in the past when people have suggested that Gomez should be sent down to the minors. In part that is because I feel there's no logical basis for that argument, but a part of it is also that I truly enjoy watching the kid play. Even beyond his exciting style of play, there are a lot of little things to like about Gomez, from his exaggerated throwing motion to his humorous accent; from his lighthearted cockiness to the way he grabs and steadies his helmet as he flies out of the batters box on a hit.

Gomez is a project, and he's certainly far from a finished product. But his tools are on display on a nightly basis, and watching him play is something I look forward whenever I sit down to watch a Twins game. Putting aside the poor on-base skills, the botched bunt attempts and the numerous fundamental mistakes, Gomez is a tremendously gifted athlete with a lot of upside, and watching him play brings me back to a time when the game seemed a whole lot more simple. And maybe a little more fun.

An Odd Little Game

Now that's how you get back on track.

One day after nearly being no-hit by Gavin Floyd, the Twins came out and pummeled the White Sox 13-1 last night. The game was delayed for nearly two hours due to a rain-storm, but those who stayed up and stuck around were treated to some interesting sights. Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle, Livan Hernandez tossed a complete game, Nick Punto drove in five runs... indeed, this one featured plenty of peculiar occurrences.

Much will no doubt be made of Gomez's cycle, which was pulled off in reverse order (home run, triple, double, single) and was the Twins' first since 1986. Personally, I don't find hitting for the cycle to be a huge accomplishment as much as a neat little statistical anomaly, but I'll admit that it's pretty cool and a perfect exemplification of the things that make Gomez such an exciting player. After watching the Twins consistently push their "piranha" approach, it's nice to see a player who bases his game on speed but can actually hit for some power. Since being benched for one game after striking out four times in a game against the A's on April 22, Gomez has batted .433 with an .867 slugging percentage. His hitting line for the season is up to a respectable .282/.306/.427. Still think he should be sent to the minors, Corey? :-)

The Twins picked up some offensive steam against the Tigers over the weekend, but hit a wall in their first game against the White Sox. It was great to see them break out again last night. Today Kevin Slowey makes his first start since April 3. Should be interesting to see how he fares.

Apologies for the abbreviated post today, but I'm amidst my last week of college and I'm a bit overwhelmed.

Hacking: Nothing Wrong With It?

Back in early spring training, Ron Gardenhire was quoted in a Star Tribune story as making statements that were dismissive, if not downright encouraging, of the free-swinging tendencies displayed by new acquisitions Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young. About Gomez, Gardenhire said, "He was hacking; nothing wrong with that." About Young: "All the on-base percentage [stats] and all those things -- he's dangerous when he lets that thing fly and gets fastballs ... We're going to want him to swing this year more than taking a lot of pitches and watching them go by."

After reading the story, I had the following reaction:

In my mind, Jacque Jones and -- to a lesser extent -- Hunter never really reached their full potential as Twins, because they were free swingers who never developed any plate discipline. Apparently the Twins didn't learn a lesson, because Gardenhire doesn't seem to have any interest in preaching patience to Gomez or Young, both of whom have displayed poor on-base skills throughout their careers thus far. This is unfortunate. I'm not trying to say that a player can't be great without the ability to take walks -- Kirby Puckett and Tony Oliva come to mind as guys who did just that -- but boy, does it help... particularly for a guy like Gomez who projects to hit at the top of the order.

More than three weeks into the season now, it seems that Gomez and Young embraced their manager's acceptance of their aggressive natures at the plate. Gomez and Young have swung at 55 and 56 percent of all pitches, respectively, to lead all Twins offensive regulars. The results haven't been as positive as Gardenhire may have estimated back in March.

In 89 plate appearances this season, Gomez has struck out 24 times while drawing just two walks. In conjuction with his low batting average, this has worked out to a .247 on-base percentage, which is nothing short of horrendous and which renders the offensive advantage he gains with his excellent speed essentially moot. Young is a better contact hitter and has struck out just 13 times, but he has drawn only three walks in 83 plate appearances for a .277 OBP.

The hope is that swinging away freely would at least allow these sizable hitters to show some power, but that has not been the case. Neither player has hit a home run, and neither possesses a slugging percentage higher than .316.

Teaching plate discipline is an exceedingly difficult task, and in some cases it is simply impossible. Once batters reach the major leagues, their tendencies at the plate are already ingrained, and often it just isn't feasible for a hitting coach to completely transform the style of hitting that has made these players successful enough to reach the highest level of competition in the first place. Yet, I found it bothersome that Gardenhire was so eager to endorse -- rather than make a modest effort to assuage -- these players' free-swinging tendencies during the spring, and now we're finding out just why such a plate approach can be faulty. You can get by being a free swinger if you've got the raw ability of a Vladimir Guerrero or an Alfonso Soriano, but at this point Young has been unable to catch up with major-league fastballs and Gomez has been unable to recognize unhittable breaking pitches. Both of these flaws could eventually be ironed out through experience, but for the time being, it's difficult to imagine that these players will have any success in the near future while sticking with that overly aggressive approach.

Thoughts From the Opener

Boy, tough to find anything not to like about last night's game. The Twins won 3-2, got a number of strong performances, and played good fundamental baseball. They left a ton of runs on the bases by going just 3-for-15 in scoring opportunities, but fortunately three was enough on this night thanks to some great pitching.

It's always a struggle to organize one's thoughts after taking in the first meaningful baseball game in several months, so here are a smattering of random thoughts about last night's game:

* The story of the game, of course, was Carlos Gomez. The new center fielder led the game off with hard-hit double down the third base line, and finished 2-for-3 with a walk and two stolen bases. Aside from showing his tremendous speed on the base-paths, he also flashed it in the outfield where he nearly overran a couple fly balls that initially looked like they might drop in for hits.

I had a feeling that Gomez's Opening Day performance would either be really good or really awful, and promised myself not to make much of it either way. Certainly, Gomez will have plenty more nights like last night where he just dominates a game with his athleticism, but there is little doubt that he will also have nights where he frustrates us with the questionable decision-making and lacking fundamentals that come along with being a 22-year-old in his first full major-league season.

Still, Gomez's performance illustrated exactly why I have always felt he was the best candidate to come north as the starting center fielder. While the flaws in his game will no doubt show themselves over the coming months, Gomez is physically mature and an extremely exciting weapon to have in the lineup. I look forward to seeing what he brings tonight.

* Of course, the other big performer last night was starting pitcher Livan Hernandez. Like many, I was skeptical when Ron Gardenhire announced that Hernandez would be the team's Opening Day starter, but the veteran delivered seven innings of two-run ball against a fairly potent Angels lineup. Hernandez was far from dominant, rarely topping 85 miles per hour on the radar gun and recording just one strikeout, but he allowed just seven hits and no walks.

Keeping in mind that Ramon Ortiz had a 2.57 ERA at the end of April last year, I will say that Hernandez's outing was impressive and encouraging. He pitched to contact and kept the ball low in the zone all night long, which is exactly what he'll have to do in order to succeed considering his lack of quality pitches. I'm sure there will be nights where he fails to keep the ball down and gets ugly results, but if he can continue to do the things he did last night with some regularity, he may end up being a more useful player than many of us imagined.

* Staying on the topic of Hernandez, have you ever seen a pitcher look as bored and lethargic as he does on the mound? It looked to me like the guy was rushing through the game so he could get to the clubhouse and take a nap. Pretty humorous, I thought.

* Some other new Twins had themselves some solid Minnesota debuts. Brendan Harris went 2-for-4 (although one of his hits a was a double that was a gift from the roof). Mike Lamb went 1-for-3 with an RBI and a walk. Delmon Young went 2-for-4 with a stolen base, and lived up to his reputation by swinging at just about every pitch he saw.

* In his first game with the Angels, Torii Hunter went 0-for-4 and struck out against Joe Nathan in the ninth inning. Being that I'm not one of Hunter's biggest fans these days, I was pretty satisfied with that outcome.

* Unfortunately, not all was well in last night's game. In his infinite wisdom, Gardenhire elected to start Craig Monroe in the DH spot over Jason Kubel. I know many are probably sick of hearing me stick up for Kubel, but this is the kind of unspeakably illogical management from Gardy that makes my blood boil. If there's one thing we've learned about Monroe over the course of his career (and especially the past three years), it's that he CAN NOT HIT RIGHT-HANDED PITCHING. He is a .249/.296/.425 career hitter against righties, including .194/.247/.308 last year. There is simply no reason that a healthy Kubel should ever be benched in favor of Monroe against a right-handed pitcher. Doing it against a guy like Jered Weaver, who is particularly tough on right-handed hitters, is especially ill-advised; and doing it on Opening Night doesn't exactly send a positive message that Gardenhire views Kubel as his regular DH.

Predictably, Monroe went 0-for-3. The guy can serve a useful purpose on this team, and I don't really have a problem with him in general, but I'm quickly going to start to hate him if Gardy continues to misuse him. Kubel better be in the lineup tonight against Jon Garland or I'm going to blow a gasket. [/end rant]

Catching Up

Alright, there is just so much going on right now that I'm going to have to push back the Position Analyses for Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher until tomorrow and Thursday. I've been very removed from things lately, as I spent last week soaking in the sun down in Orlando (I actually wrote all of last week's Position Analysis pieces the week before; if no one noticed then I guess I did a decent job!), so there are a few things I'd like to delve into.

The biggest news, of course, is the Twins' signing of closer Joe Nathan to a four-year extension that will keep him in Minnesota until at least 2011, with an option for 2012. Between 2008 and 2011, Nathan will make $47 million, or an average of $11.25 million per year. Considering the type of money that Mariano Rivera and Francisco Cordero have gotten lately, Nathan's deal seems like a decent bargain; and most importantly, the contract includes only a limited no-trade clause (Nathan can select three teams to which the club cannot trade him), so if push comes to shove he can remain a valuable trading piece down the line.

Many people are grumbling about this deal, reasoning that Nathan is less valuable than players like Torii Hunter and Johan Santana who were let go during the offseason and that closers in general are overrated and not deserving of this type of money. I tend to find both of these lines of reasoning rather dubious. The Twins could not have reasonably afforded to pay Hunter or Santana the huge money they were seeking so there's no way this can be viewed as an either/or situation; and, while the closer position itself (mostly just the save statistic) might be overrated, dominant relievers who pitch extremely well in high-leverage situations are not. I'm of the belief that the Twins needed to retain Nathan in order to maintain a strong and reasonably deep bullpen, because with Eduardo Morlan out of the picture, this organization does not have much in the pipeline when it comes to power bullpen arms.

Aside from locking up Nathan, the Twins also made an official decision on their center field situation yesterday by cutting Denard Span and Jason Pridie from the big-league camp. Indeed, as I have long anticipated, Carlos Gomez will open the season manning center for the Twins. This is certainly something I'm supportive of, in part because I think Gomez has the tools and attitude to be able to learn and develop in the big leagues, and in part because as a fan I'd simply much prefer watching him than Span.

The Twins also cut Philip Humber and Brian Buscher yesterday, indicating that Matt Tolbert will make the club as a utility infielder (okay...?) and that Nick Blackburn and Brian Bass will hang on, one as a long reliever and one as a starter. The team has suggested that Francisco Liriano will open the season in the minors, despite his strong outing on Sunday afternoon.

So, unless something changes, this is what we can expect the team's 25-man roster to look like on March 31:

C: Mauer

1B: Morneau

2B: Harris

SS: Everett
3B: Lamb

LF: Young

CF: Gomez

RF: Cuddyer

DH: Kubel

C: Redmond

IF: Punto

IF: Tolbert

OF: Monroe

SP: Hernandez

SP: Bonser

SP: Baker

SP: Slowey

SP: Blackburn

CL: Nathan

RP: Neshek

RP: Rincon

RP: Reyes

RP: Crain

RP: Guerrier

RP: Bass

I would have liked a better final bench option than Tolbert, but none of those decisions are going to make me rip my hair out. Let's see what these boys can do.

Position Analysis: Center Field

Likely Starter: Carlos Gomez
2007 Stats: .232/.288/.304, 2 HR, 12 RBI

Gomez's game is raw and ripe with flaws, but he may get to work on them in the bigs.

Potential Backups: Jason Pridie, Craig Monroe, Denard Span

With Torii Hunter out of the picture, the Twins hoped to figure out a steady answer in center field by the start of the 2008 season. Despite trading for two center field prospects during the offseason, the Twins don't appear particularly close to figuring things out.

Showing improvement after a rough start this spring, Carlos Gomez appears to be the front-runner in the battle to start in center on Opening Day. A 22-year-old who came over as the sole position player in the Johan Santana trade, Gomez had been rushed through the Mets system and appeared in 58 games for the Mets last year, appearing in mostly the corner outfield spots. Gomez struggled and posted a paltry .592 OPS while striking out in nearly 20 percent of his at-bats, but he was only 21 years old and did miss a sizable chunk of the season with a broken hand.

Widely viewed as one of the league's fastest players, Gomez is a toolsy defender and a legitimate threat on the basepaths when gets aboard. He also projects to hit for power with his big 6-for-4 frame. The problem with Gomez is that he's basically all projection at this point; he hasn't hit particularly well in the minors (which is understandable since he's been rushed and hasn't been given much time to adjust at any level) and doesn't appear truly ready to be starting in the big leagues. Yet, the Twins are likely to eager to showcase some of the talent they got back in the Santana trade, and Gomez might be the best option considering the alternatives.

Jason Pridie, who had a breakout year in Tampa Bay's system last year that included a .914 OPS over 63 games at Triple-A, is more polished than Gomez and might be a better option for the center field spot in the short-term. However, Ron Gardenhire has made clear that he views Pridie as a backup and role player, and the battle for the starting job seems to be between Gomez and Denard Span at this point.

Span has had the best spring of the three, but is a significantly inferior prospect to either Gomez or Pridie. A first-round pick in 2002, Span has moved through the Twins' system at a reasonable pace despite a failure to produce anywhere, and his lack of legitimate plate discipline or any power whatsoever make him a marginal roster candidate. He possesses some of the same tools as Gomez -- namely, defense and speed -- but Gomez is the better player and has a much brighter future. It has become fairly clear that Span doesn't have much of a future as a major-league player, whereas Gomez is a top prospect with the tools to blossom into a star. Whether the former Met will realize that potential remains to be seen, but it would certainly be more entertaining for Twins fans to watch him grow and adjust this year than to watch Span try and beat out weak grounders.

Predicted 2008 Hitting Line for Gomez: .265/.315/.390, 10 HR, 55 RBI

Twins 8, Reds 6

The Twins entered the bottom of the ninth trailing the Reds 6-4 in yesterday's exhibition match-up, but a two-run homer from Randy Ruiz tied the game and another two-run homer from Chris Basak one inning later gave the Twins a victory. Granted, neither of those players are likely to make the Twins' roster out of spring training, nor is the team's pitcher of record (Mariano Gomez, who tossed a pair of scoreless innings), but there were some encouraging signs from players who are indeed in the Twins' plans this year.

Carlos Gomez, who is in a three-way battle for the starting center field job, got the start and batted lead-off. He went 1-for-2 with an RBI double, a walk, and a stolen base. Alexi Casilla, who started at shortstop, also stole a pair of bases. Ron Gardenhire has not been timid about sending those two speedsters when they've reached first base so far this spring; I have to wonder whether this represents a fundamental change in the manager's usually conservative philosophy, or whether he's just letting them fly because it's early spring. Time will tell.

Joe Mauer went 1-for-3 with an RBI double and is hitting .500 this spring. Glen Perkins got the start and pitched two innings, allowing a run on two hits and two walks with no strikeouts. He seems to be struggling a bit. Philip Humber, who was roughed up in an outing against Concordia College about a week ago, tossed a perfect seventh.

Tomorrow afternoon the Twins look to raise their spring winning percentage to .500 as they face off against Tampa Bay, and then on Wednesday they will face the the Yankees in a game that will be televised nationally on ESPN.