Bert Blyleven: It's About Time

I've got nothing new for today, but please enjoy the following guest post on Bert Blyleven and the Hall of Fame, provided by supporter of this blog PokerJunkie.com. I realize now that I never discussed Bert's induction in this space, so feel free to share your own thoughts in the comments section. 

What would you call a pitcher in today's game with a minimum of 13 wins a year for his career?   How about one that averages 11 completed games a year for his career?  What if this player during his prime was averaging over 200 strikeouts a season and had a career average of 168 strikeouts per year?  What if this same player had a career ERA of 3.31?  For many teams, this would be their ace, and in some years, this player would be the superstar of the league.  At the end of such a career, you would likely expect this player to be a first ballot Hall of Famer.  Unfortunately, it took the BBWAA 14 years to induct former Twin Bert Blyleven into the Hall of Fame.  They finally got it right when they inducted the former pitching great into the hall, and it is about damn time.

Bert Blyleven was elected into the Hall of Fame earlier in the month after garnering 79.7 percent of the vote from the BBWAA.  It takes 75 percent in order to be inducted, and this honor had been a long time coming.  Blyleven won 287 games over his 22 year career, a stint that saw him throw 60 shutouts, 3,701 strikeouts, and an astounding 242 completed games.  His 3,701 strikeouts is fifth all-time.  A gambler that plays poker online would have bet on Blyleven being in the Hall before now, but that was not the case.

Sadly, a combination of factors have led to his not being inducted before now.  First, he played in an era that saw the emergence of many all-time great pitchers: Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Gaylord Perry, Rollie Fingers, and Jim Palmer, to name a few.  Next, while Blyleven had tremendous numbers, they just weren't as impressive in many cases as some of the other greats.  He also failed to win 300 games, and for many writers, that was one of the key stats for a pitcher to get into the Hall. 

Interestingly enough, the one thing that I personally think helped Blyleven's case the most was the Steroid Era.  I realize some of you just gave me a confused look.  However, just look at some of the recent players that were up for election that would have likely made it into the Hall over Blyleven if not for steroids.  Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmiero and  Jeff Bagwell are the best examples of those who were left out this year either because of direct involvement with steroids or perceived involvement.  Most of the players from that era would have been better off to gamble on Texas Hold em than on steroids.

How did this help Blyleven?  There was nothing about Blyleven's career that ever even hinted that he did anything wrong.  He went out start after start and put up very good numbers.  Granted, newly popularized stats such as WHIP did indeed help his cause.  However, in a year where you had a lot of candidates that played in a questionable era, this gave the Hall the chance to put someone in that may not be up to certain writers standards, but one whose stats were above repute.

Scouting the Enemy: Q&A with IIATMS

Jason Rosenberg and his stable of writers do a terrific job of covering the Yankees over the site It's About the Money, Stupid. The blog is a member of Rob Neyer's SweetSpot Network, and with good reason -- they offer the type of cogent, even-handed analysis that many might not typically associate with New York sports.

I strongly recommend checking out Jason's ALDS series preview, and after you're done with that you can scroll down and read my brief Q&A session with the IIATMS crew here. I asked Jason and his gang five questions that I felt might help illuminate some aspects of the opponent for Twins fans. Make sure you head over to the IIATMS blog later today to check out my answers to their own five questions.

NTB: Many people don't seem to realize what a disappointing season Derek Jeter had, by his standards at least. From your vantage point, are his reduced numbers simply the result of a down year or is he showing his age? Give us a synopsis on his season and rate your confidence in him heading into the ALDS.

IIATMS: Anyone who got within 100 yards of IIATMS knows about Jeter’s disappointing season. We KNOW that something is off with Jeter this year. When we look at his stats, the one that jumps out is a 65.7% ground ball rate, by far the highest in baseball for anyone with at least 300 ABs (there are only three other players with at least 300 ABs and a GB% over 60%). Jeter’s always had a high ground ball rate (career average of 57%), but 65.7% seems extreme, particularly coupled with a career-low line drive percentage of 16.1% and a career-high O-Swing percentage (percentage of balls swung at outside of the strike zone) of 28.2%. These stats confirm what we think we saw all year: Jeter did not make the same kind of ball contact as in prior years, nor did he have the same kind of plate discipline. Is age a factor? Of course age is a factor, he’s 36 years old. But this also may have been an off-year for Jeter, as suggested by his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). BABIP fluctuations are supposed to be mostly a matter of luck. Jeter’s 2010 BABIP is .307, which is better than normal for most players but 50 points below his career average. So, chalk up Jeter’s 2010 to a combination of factors, and figure that (subject to the small sample size) Jeter is probably a better player than he showed this year, but not as good as he was before this year.

NTB: Mark Teixeira's splits this season are striking to me. The switch-hitter's OPS was about 140 points higher from the right side, which bodes well for your club with the Twins starting southpaws in Games 1 and 3. I also notice that Teixeira's OPS was 240 points lower on the road than at home, which obviously doesn't bode nearly as well. What do you make of these splits?

IIATMS: Don’t try to figure out Mark Teixeira. Just don’t. We’ve given up trying. Yes, his 2010 OPS number is down about a hundred points from last year’s near-MVP level, but a year for this guy is either too small or too large a sample size. We’re not sure. Yes, he was more productive from the right side in 2010, but he’s not predictable here either. In 2009, his OPS was 40 points better from the left side; in 2008 he was 92 points better from the left side; in 2006 he was 125 points better from the right side. You tell us what that means. We’re listening. More significant to us is his OPS fluctuation from month to month: .559 in March/April of this year, 1.160 in July, .694 in September/October. But somehow, the guy always seems to make a contribution. For example, Teix manages to draw walks when he can’t get hits – in his combined March/April and September/October, he had more walks than hits. When we make a list of the things we’re worried about for this October, Teix doesn’t make our top 20. (And by the way, thanks for not asking us to explain why Teix’s 2010 UZR was worse than Adam Dunn’s.)

NTB: Give us a breakdown of the Yankees bullpen. Mariano Rivera struggled a bit late in the season but he had another great year and is a postseason legend. Beyond him, however, this doesn't appear to be one of the better groups in baseball. Is there a lefty specialist that you'd trust against the likes of Joe Mauer and Jim Thome late in a game?

IIATMS: Our relief corps got better as the year went on. They ended with a 3.47 ERA (0.02 better than the Twins). Our FIP is not great at 4.06, but blame that on Mo Rivera, whose FIP is usually higher than his ERA (this year a full point higher). The addition of Kerry Wood at the trade deadline was a huge help down the stretch (0.69 ERA, .160 BA against, 10.73 K/9). We don’t expect Wood to be that good in the post-season, but he doesn’t have to be that good to help get us to Mo. As for our LOOGY? That would be household name Boone Logan, a guy whose mere appearance warming in the bullpen used to trigger a spasm of hate tweets in Yankeedom. Only Logan ended the season with an ERA under 3. Against lefties he had a K/9 of over 12 and a FIP of 1.87. He also got better as the year went on: he allowed just one earned run in 13 innings of pitching in July and August. That’s not bad for a LOOGY, and no, we don’t trust Logan versus Joe Mauer in a high-leverage situation. If you know of a LOOGY who IS effective against Joe Mauer, please let us know who that LOOGY is, and we’ll sign him to an eight-figure free agent contract before Wednesday. Only kidding. We wouldn’t do that. So there wouldn’t be any harm in recommending a LOOGY to us. You can trust us.

NTB: What are your thoughts on the Yankees' playoff rotation? CC Sabathia is obviously a horse. Andy Pettitte has owned the Twins historically but carries injury concerns this October. Phil Hughes strikes me as a wild card. Unless they're up in the series 2-1, is there any chance the Yanks don't go back to Sabathia on short rest for Game 4?

IIATMS: We haven’t seen the Yanks’ projected starting rotation, but we think the Yanks will go back to CC in game 4 even if the Yanks ARE up 2-1. The Yanks’ starting rotation consists of a Cy Young runner-up, two question marks, and a threesome that seemed to fight down the stretch for the honor of being left off the post-season roster. We haven’t seen a Yankees-announced post-season rotation yet, but we’ve penciled CC in for three days’ rest in every post-season series in which the Yankees manage to play. CC may need half of 2011 to rest up from what we plan to do to him in the remainder of 2010.

NTB: Finally, give us one key reason the Yankees could win this series and one reason they could lose it.

IIATMS: Same key reason both times: starting pitching. If the Yanks can hold you guys to an average of 4.5 runs a game, then we like our chances. If not, then we’ll be spending much of the post-season making goo-goo eyes at Cliff Lee.

Huge thanks to all the people over at IIATMS for their thoughtful answers. I'm sure we'll be hearing from them again over the course of this series. A few more notes to take you through this final agonizing day before we get this thing started...

* If I did a live, interactive Twins chat here on the blog within the next few days, is that something that people would be interested in participating in?

* One cool aspect of the increased interest in the Twins this year as a result of the new stadium and the quality product on the field is all the new independent apparel that has sprung up. I'm sure you're all familiar with Parker's DiamondCentric label, which has released a number of humorous player-related t-shirt designs including the ever-popular Thome Is My Homey (now available as a hooded sweatshirt).

If you haven't yet, I strongly recommend checking out the "Let's Get Denarded" shirts from the clothing line Seventh.Ink. I got my hands on one of these t-shirts last week and was extremely impressed with its quality; the slick design is printed on American Apparel, so they're actually really nice threads. Please go pay my friends at Seventh.Ink a visit and order your t-shirt or hoody in time for the playoffs!

* Finally, TwinsCentric and a number of other Twins fans will be gathering at at Park Tavern in St. Louis Park for Game 3 of the ALDS, which takes place in New York on Saturday night starting at 7:30 CT. Please join us!

Wasting No Time

Any concerns I had that Bill Smith and the Twins would become complacent in addressing lineup holes this offseason after enjoying a successful overall season offensively in 2009 were quickly assuaged on Friday morning when the club announced that they'd traded Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. As a relatively young shortstop who remains controllable for two more years and who has historically hit for power while playing great defense, Hardy seemed destined to be a hot commodity this winter after Milwaukee had made clear that he'd be available. Smith wasted no time in taking the 27-year-old infielder off the market, completing a swap just as the Yankees were parading through New York City to celebrate their World Series victory -- still only two days old.

That the Twins were interested in Hardy comes as no huge surprise. He's a very logical fit for this team and was in fact the very top player listed among our potential trade targets in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. Here's what I wrote about Hardy there:

Age: 27 (DOB: 8/19/82) | Contract Status: Arb Elig
2009 Stats: .229/.302/.357, 11 HR, 47 RBI

With the free agent market for shortstops looking exceedingly thin and the Twins lacking any legitimate prospects at that position, it appears that the only way to make a meaningful upgrade might be through a trade. Teams generally aren’t willing to part with capable young shortstops that are competent at the dish and in the field, but Hardy may be an exception. He is coming off a dismal offensive year, but he had averaged 25 homers and 77 RBI in the two seasons prior and he’s only 27 years old. Plus, he rates quite well defensively. The Brewers have a major-league ready SS prospect in Alcides Escobar, so they may be willing to deal Hardy even though his value is down. They’d likely seek big-league ready pitching in return.

Here's a more in-depth scouting report on Hardy, courtesy of Kyle Lobner from the Brewers blog Brew Crew Ball (you can also read a take on the trade from that blog here):

The Twins are getting a solid defensive shortstop in Hardy, but his potential contribution as an offensive player is unknown at best. After having two above average seasons in 2007 and 2008, including an All Star appearance in 2007, Hardy's stat line at the plate declined dramatically in 2009, when he posted a .659 OPS, the lowest of his major league career, with a .229/.302/.357 line.

A fair portion of Hardy's struggles last season can probably be attributed to luck: Hardy hit .264 on balls in play last season, down from .280 over the course of his career, and only connected for home runs on 8.3% of his fly balls, down from his 11.2% career total. However, it's hard to blame all of Hardy's struggles on luck: His line drive percentage has dropped in each of the last four seasons, from 19% in 2006 all the way down to 13.9% last season. Hardy had some tough luck early, hitting a lot of line drives at defenders, but never seemed to recover or make the adjustments necessary to regain his stride. He also doesn't take many pitches; his career walk rate is just 8.3% and his career OBP is .323.

Even if Hardy doesn't bounce back offensively, he's a very good defensive shortstop. FanGraphs has him listed as saving 29.7 runs in the field over the last three seasons, good for roughly three wins. There's another interesting note in those numbers, though: Hardy saved 14.8 runs in 2007, 8.2 in 2008 and 6.7 in 2009. While Hardy's 30 runs saved over the last three seasons ranked sixth among major league shortstops during that span, his 6.7 last season was outside the top ten. His UZR/150 over the last three seasons have been 16.7, 8.5 and 8.8.

You might think a guy as defensively gifted as Hardy would have to have some pretty notable athletic ability but you'd be wrong, at least when it comes to running speed. Hardy might be one of major league baseball's slowest shortstops. He frequently looks like he's dragging an anchor behind him on the basepaths, and struggles to take the extra base in situations where a runner with average speed would get in easily. He also only turned 7 ground balls into infield hits in 2009 - that 4.5% was the sixth lowest among shortstops with at least 460 PAs.

Hardy will likely get a raise in arbitration, even if it is a small one, and made $4.65 million in 2009. With that said, the Brewers' decision to demote Hardy to AAA for 20 days in August pushed his arbitration clock back a year, and he'll be under the Twins' control for two more seasons, should they decide to hang onto him.

Many were surprised that the pitching-starved Brewers didn't move Hardy in return for a young starter (I had suggested Glen Perkins, whose name may or may not have come up in these discussions depending on who you listen to), but Gomez fills a need as well. With Mike Cameron departing, the Brewers were looking for another strong defensive center fielder, and they'll hope that with regular playing time in 2010 he can start to realize his offensive potential while tracking down everything between left and right.

Reaction to this trade from Twins fans has been overwhelmingly positive, and with good reason. As mentioned in my writeup from the Handbook and in Lobner's report, Hardy had been an excellent hitter during the two seasons prior to 2009. It is, however, difficult to ignore the struggles that the shortstop experienced during this past season. There was no major injury to explain away his dismal hitting, and with a strikeout rate that has jumped for three straight seasons, there are some who believe his drop-off last year was no fluke. If he is unable to improve somewhat significantly on his disappointing production in '09, Hardy will hardly be the dramatic upgrade this team is looking for at the bottom of the lineup. But the Twins certainly seem confident that he can rebound, and his power potential is very intriguing for a club that hasn't gotten a .400 slugging percentage from the shortstop position since 2001 and hasn't had a 20-HR hitter there since 1979.

The loss of Gomez is being downplayed by many who have grown tired of his mental mistakes and offensive ineptitude, but his departure is not insignificant. Twins' pitchers allowed the highest fly ball percentage of any team in the majors this year, and that doesn't figure to change significantly next season. In trading Gomez, the Twins seem to be committing to an outfield alignment of Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer, which represents an incredibly vast downgrade from the Span/Gomez/Cuddyer alignment. Hardy is a better defensive player than anyone the Twins trotted out at shortstop this season, but given the nature of this pitching staff, swapping out Gomez for Hardy will likely lead to an overall drop in defensive proficiency.

Of course, Gomez's slick glove doesn't do much good when he's stuck on the bench, and Gardenhire seemed to have made up his mind on which young outfielder he was going to commit to by the end of the year. In September and October, as the Twins made a furious dash for the playoffs, Young started in the outfield 26 times; Gomez only eight. For better or for worse, Gomez had become the fourth outfielder on this club, and any time you can trade a reserve player for a starting shortstop you've done pretty well for yourself.

Hardy is a nice addition with the potential to provide serious power from the bottom of the lineup (or perhaps the No. 2 spot, if Gardenhire feels so misguidedly inclined) while likely upgrading the team's defense at one of the most important spots on the field. Gomez's departure also seemingly finalizes the club's outfield situation, effectively putting an end to the tired Gomez vs. Young debates. Second base and third base remain uncertain, along with at least one spot in the pitching rotation, so Smith's work is hardly done. But, less than a week into the offseason, he has already gotten a running start on his work for this pivotal offseason. Meanwhile, he has very quickly put to rest any worries that he'd be sitting on his hands as the team prepares to defend its AL Central title in the first year at Target Field.

Smith deserves credit for this bold, aggressive move. Even if it does mean that one of my very favorite Twins players will be suiting up across the border next season.

Guest Post: Everett vs. Tolbert

Nick's Note: Good game last night, but I just don't have time write about it, so I'm going to present you with this guest post submitted by frequent reader and occasional contributor Corey Ettinger. I will note that I'm a little skeptical of the numbers he presents, because I think that a) Everett is not nearly the defender he was in Houston anymore, which may be because of age or because of a shoulder ailment; and b) I think Ettinger is probably underrating Tolbert by putting him on Brendan Harris' level defensively. Nevertheless, it's a well-written article, so I'll leave you to formulate your own opinions based on the evidence provided. Thanks Corey!

***

Matt Tolbert is playing out of his mind right now, and if you're the Twins, this is clearly a good thing. His play is even causing a groundswell among the fan base to make him the starter at shortstop and I think this is something that needs to be addressed. In one camp, you have people who like the fact that Tolbert should be a better offensive player over the course of the season. The other camp believes that Adam Everett can save as many or more runs with his glove. Let's break it down:

Name	Lifetime AVG	Lifetime OBP	Lifetime SLG	AVG H	AVG BB	AVG TB	AVG 2B	AVG 3B	AVG HR	Runs Created
Everett	.246	.298	.355	135	30.41	195	25.80	3.54	8.86	55.14
Tolbert	.280	.345	.404	154	46.44	222	29.57	7.70	7.70	74.49

So over the course of a season, Tolbert is good for an additional 19.35 runs. That's pretty significant. If you consider that the Twins averaged 4.43 runs per game last year, that's an additional 4.37 wins that Tolbert bring to the team. Of course, that also presumes that Tolbert can translate those minor-league numbers into major-league numbers. While it is far from impossible for him to do so, I think many would say the odds are against that given the traditional growth rates of players transition from the minor leagues to the major leagues.

Now is where things get a bit tricky and I'm prepared to admit that defensive statistics are not my forte, but using some pretty simple logic-based calculations, I think we can fairly easily translate Everett's effectiveness into a sort of reverse runs created. Let's say, runs prevented. Also, as a caveat to anyone who is interested in really understanding defensive metrics, PLEASE look into buying a copy of The Fielding Bible; its written by some of the greatest minds in sabermetrics and is a MUST for anyone who is interested in understanding precisely how defense impacts a game. Furthermore, even if you aren't going to buy the book, I strongly recommend reading the excerpts posted on their website.

The system they use is called +/-, and essentially, after charting every single ball put in play, they determine based on ball speed, location, vectoring, etc... how many more (or less) balls a player converts into an out than the average. Players who get to balls below the average receive negative ratings. Adam Everett led all shortstops in the major leagues from 2005-2007 with a +92 rating (Jason Bartlett was second with a +45.) While I'd love to use these stats, it's not possible since Matt Tolbert's numbers aren't available. So we need to find another way of doing this. Getting back to setting up our own system...

First, I'll be using The Hardball Times fielding stats. A basic fielding stats primer: ZR= Zone Rating BIZ= Balls in zone. Plays = # of balls in a players zone fielded (Plays/BIZ=UZR) OOZ= Outs made on balls out of a fielders zone. Since shortstops don't really have any effect on triple and homeruns, and only have a very small degree of effect doubles, I'm going to presume that every out that a fielder doesn't make, counts for a single. In order to ensure the closest approximations possible I'm going to use the data available from Everett's past 5 seasons. In Tolbert's case, I only have a sample size of nineteen innings. Clearly this presents a major statistical dilemma, but I can only work with the information available to me.

As a precursor, I'll be using an average total balls in zone for the shortstop position over a 162 game season of 420. That will effect a players AVG Plays as well as thier AVG OOZ plays. Obviously the last shortstop to play 162 games in a season was Miguel Tejada (and before him Cal Ripken Jr) but guys who do are rare. And neither Everett nor Tolbert will do so. But it gives us an important baseline to work from.

Name	AVG BIZ	AVG Plays (420*ZR)	AVG OOZ	Total
Everett	420	369.60 (.880)	77.90	447.50 (448)
Tolbert	420	326.76 (.778)	¹37.00	363.76 (364)

¹: Brendan Harris' 2007, a player I think Tolbert compares well to. I had to make an arbitrary decision since Tolbert has yet to record an out from outside of his zone. Harris created one out of zone out per 20.29 innings last year. Tolbert having played 19 innings and not yet made an OOZ play was the nearest comparison given Tolbert HAVING made an OOZ play.

This shows us that Everett creates 84 more outs over the course of a season than Tolbert. Given that there are 27 outs per game you COULD say that means Everett's glove wins 3.11 more games per year than Tolbert's.

But now we need to plug this into 2007 hitting data. Last year the average major-league hitter batted .268/.336/.422. Over a 550 at-bat season that comes to 147 hits, 185 times on base (H+BB). Therefore, the average batter would've had ~38 BB. A .422 SLG works out to 232 total bases. If Everett prevents 84 more outs per season, that means he prevents 84/9 (9.33) outs (# of additional out/batters = Individual batters share of additional outs created) per batter.

Plugged into the same basic RC formula we used above, this "standard" hitter who had been averaging a RC of 72.99 would now be averaging an RC of 66.75. Now, since Everett's defense is in play over 9 batter over the course of a season, that negative variation of 6.24 becomes multiplied by 9 to equate to 56.16.

Everett has a 56.16 Runs Prevented rating over Matt Tolbert. That would equate to 12.54 wins given the Twins average allowed runs of 4.48 per game.

Of course so much of this is speculative. We don't know if Tolbert can duplicate his minor league numbers and my study of the fielding stats is wildly simplistic. But I think the study is fairly accurate, and I'd be happy to discuss it with anyone who might be interested. The final results show that Tolbert's 4.37 additional wins due to his bat (over Everett's) do not make up for Everett's additional 6.24 wins from his glove over Tolbert's.

The New Players: A First-Hand Perspective

The Twins acquired three new players in last week's trade with Tampa Bay. Most baseball fans are at least familiar with the players' names, but beyond the stats, stories and scouting reports, most of us don't know a whole lot about Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. To get a better idea of what types of positives and negatives these players bring with them, I went straight to the source, getting in contact with a Rays blogger to get some hometown perspective.

R.J. Anderson, senior columnist for the blog DRays Bay, was kind enough to get back to me with the following first-hand report on the newest Minnesota Twins:

It’s surreal to see the words “Delmon Young traded,” and not have it written as a rumor; it wasn’t long ago Delmon made his debut, hitting a home run against the White Sox after being pegged in his first at-bat. It felt like a turning point in the franchise’s otherwise pitiful history; this was our golden child – the real one, not Rocco Baldelli or Josh Hamilton or Toe Nash – no this was the real deal. In the past year plus he’d flash his arm – perhaps the best in the league – and his doubles stroke, but also his lack of plate discipline. I know some Twins fans have asked if he can play center, the answer is no! His arm is rendered nearly useless and he doesn’t have the range for it; far too many balls were misplayed by Young in center. He’s got a bit of an attitude issue as well, Joe Maddon benched him for not running out a groundball late in the year, and I believe some reports had him sticking his head into the Twins’ daycare of all places and saying “We just kicked your daddies’ asses!” early on in the season. In the past he infamously threw a bat and stated that he wanted to put in his “six and bolt,” but after that hasn’t had any discipline taken on him. On the field if he just learns to take a better approach at the plate he can become very special, but until he does that Twin fans might get a bit irritated with Delmon coming up against a pitcher who’s walked two straight with the bases loaded and seeing him ground into a double play on the first pitch – something he did quite a bit last year. If he works out the Rays will look like fools.

Harris was a very nice surprise; acquired from the Reds last January for cash he was a dark horse to make the roster but did just that when Jorge Cantu – coincidently with the Reds now – was sent to Durham. He showed some pop in limited action before taking over for the putrid Ben Zobrist at shortstop. Harris is what Joe Magrane referred to as a “trooper”; he doesn’t do anything overly well, but does a lot of stuff decently. I think he was a bit overexposed last year – hence his second half collapse – but otherwise shouldn’t bust next year. Defensively he really shouldn’t be at shortstop, and he’s only slightly better at second; he tries, which is good, but sometimes busting ass doesn’t equate to being good – overall I liked him better than Wigginton and I’d say he’s pretty much a wash with Bartlett with Minny getting the better hitter.

Pridie is a former second round pick with loads of tools, his BABIP for this year seems to indicate he’s not .900 OPS good, but he’s certainly better than Jason Tyner – and I love Jason Tyner – I’ve never seen him field, but all indications are he’s a major league center fielder. I’d like to think he’ll be at least league average and more valuable than putting say Steve Finley in center.

Thanks, R.J.! And everyone should make sure to check out DRays Bay for some good perspective on the trade from the other side.

The World We Live In

The world of baseball is an amazing and interesting place for a person to find themselves swept into. Whenever your love of the game develops, be it at 2, 20, or 40, this game we cherish can provide so much to so many.

For the casual fan it gives us a place to come together with friends; an opportunity to enjoy people playing a game that seems so simple that anyone, even you, could partake. For me, it provides hope that if I were given a uniform, placed in left field, and as long as a ball wasn't hit in my general direction, I could pass for a Major League player for as much as a full inning. No such disguise could be possible on a basketball court or a football field. It's a chance for a father to connect with a son, a place for college kids to share a dog and a beer, a place for older couples to spend an evening together watching the game they love. In 2006 we as fans were spoiled to have watched something even more enjoyable than the game itself -- we had a chance to see it at its finest. We marveled at simple execution at the plate and on the bases, and reveled in brilliant plays in the field. We watched with the unabashed joy of a child as grown men played "for the love of the game." Clutch base hits, timely pitching, career seasons, and brilliant rookies dazzled us and gave us something incredible to remember. The problem with a season like that however, is that there is always a "next season," and it can never live up to the lofty expectations created the year before.

Really, we as fans were doomed long before this season ever finished. Actually, the downward spiral began on the last day of last year's regular season. As the Twins won a hard-fought game against the hated White Sox, 40,000 fans sat for another hour to watch with breath held as the Tigers and Royals battled into extra innings. It was an incredible evening to be a part of... besides winning the game, the numerous chants of, "lets go Royals," that emerged from what is likely one of the tamest fan bases in all of baseball, and left no doubt that the day could hold in store something very special, and indeed it did. As the Royals singled home the winning run a city exploded, cheering on a team that never quit, that always seemed to come through and who, with characters like Mike Redmond, Nick Punto, and Jason Tyner playing significant roles, gave very average people reason to feel very proud. The fans cheered, the team rounded the stadium slapping high-fives reveling like school boys in what even they knew to be a very rare accomplishment. Terry Ryan was brilliant. The man had brought in Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan and they were all performing wonderfully. Ron Gardenhire was looking like a genius by moving journeyman Nick Punto to third base, and -- though he was far from prototypical -- his hustle, infield hits, and timely bloopers to left kept getting him on base and driving in runs. Heck, even the Pohlad family and organization had finally won us a new stadium which we could look forward to.

Then came this year and its lofty expectations. With the reigning MVP, Cy Young, Batting Champion, and perennial Gold Glover Torii Hunter all returning, it made most believe that even without rookie phenom Fransisco Liriano, this team could win it all....

Then reality hit. Hard.

It hit in the form of multiple injuries to star catcher Joe Mauer. It tumbled in like Michael Cuddyer rounding second base. It blew in like the breeze carrying yet another one of Justin Morneau's lazy pop-ups into foul territory for yet another easy out. I could go on with the lame similes, but I think you get the point. With pretty boy Mauer either out of the lineup or marginally effective and his promised power nowhere in sight, and with the likes of retreads Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz in the rotation the club stumbled out of the gate. They continued to stumble despite the season-long brilliance of Torii Hunter's bat, the reemergence of Carlos Silva as a capable Major League pitcher, and the long overdue promise of Scott Baker. When our 'little guys' got on base, the big guys struck out. When the middle of the order was racking up hits, they found there was no one rounding third. When Johan or Baker, or Silva, or Garza, or well, almost any of the Twins starters turned in a gem, the offense went to sleep. When the offense decided to pour it on, the pitching staff fell apart. Even our usually lights-out bullpen has faltered more than once.

The collapse hasn't ended on the field of course, things seem to be coming apart everywhere, including the clubhouse and front office. In terms of on-the-field decision making, many fans who once viewed Gardenhire as a possibly flawed but competent manager, now have reason for unabashed hatred with his insistence on playing the impotent Nick Punto, and unwillingness to give regular playing time to guys like Kubel, Buscher, and Casilla who will certainly have to be part of our future for at least the next season or two. Then there is the blame to be handed out to Terry Ryan, who I will forever defend as probably one of the two or three finest General Managers in baseball... possibly in all of sports. That said, in the past two seasons he's taken the extremely limited payroll he's had to work with, and done precisely nothing with it. Perhaps even worse. From the re-signing of Rondell White, to the contracts handed to the likes of Batista, Castro, Rincon, Ortiz and Ponson, amongst others, its starting to look like its been a while since he made a really GREAT move. Then of course there was the Castillo deal, one which was probably forced by ownership to cut payroll in what they saw as a lost season (notice the immediate waiving of Cirillo and trade of Ortiz that followed soon there after) and brought nearly nothing back for someone who was a talented player. Of course, being that few teams other than the Mets were interested, and they could put the screws to Ryan by simply sticking with Ruben Gotay who has been a revival, Ryan was left with little choice but to jettison a quality player.

I said all of that to say this:

It's OK.

While the Twins of 2006 gave us an incredible season, and the Twins of 2007 have invented new ways to lose, the truth of who this team is likely lies somewhere in the middle. While many predict gloom and doom for the offense next year, I think it is likely, almost to the point of mathematical certainty, that they will outscore this years squad by ~30 runs, even without Torii Hunter. This team still has boat-loads of talent, and what's most promising has been the performance of two players who were either irregular contributors, or ineffective at the beginning of this season. I speak of course of Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel, whom I could make compelling arguments for as the teams 2nd and 3rd best players since June 1st. Both have hit near .300 with some pop, and Kubel in particular has shown a significantly improved eye at the plate, but I guess Mr. Nelson told you all about that yesterday didn't he? Combine that with a serviceable showing from Brian Buscher and rebound years that see the Twins trio of stars Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer play closer to their potential, and you have a significantly stronger, significantly more consistent, deeper lineup. If the Twins manage to sign a player like Mike Cameron (who's splits away from the pitchers haven of Petco Field have been pretty solid) to temporarily fill the hole left in center while a viable solution (be it the hated Span, the promising Joe Benson, or the exciting Ben Revere) develops, or another player presents himself then the blow of Hunter leaving will be significantly lessened.

On the other end, a full season of a bullpen that includes Perkins, Reyes, Crain, Guerrier, Neshek and Nathan should be as good or better than this season, when injuries too often forced the team to rely on players like Carmen Cali, Julio DePaula, Ramon Ortiz, etc... Combine that with a rotation that looks to be remarkably strong with Santana, Liriano, Baker, Garza, Slowey, and Bonser (who will likely find a new home in long relief) and you've got the makings of a very strong team. Will it be enough for us to overcome the Indians, and Tigers for a playoff spot? Well, that remains to be seen. But what seems certain to me is that this team is not dead. And that Torii Hunter's leaving will not doom our offense. And that Gardenhire isn't nearly as stupid as his constant playing of Nick Punto has made him look. Or for that matter, that Nick Punto's bat isn't AS BAD as his batting average suggests.

Does this club have weaknesses? Yes. The minor league hitting depth is weak to non-existent. Certain players in the lineup aren't ideal and there are holes that could stand to be filled with higher level players. Gardenhire isn't perfect (though I can't think of WAY worse options) and Bill Smith will almost certainly fail to live up to his predecessor. But in the reality of the world we live in, this is a team that can never fill all those holes the way we'd like. We'll never have an owner who goes George Steinbrenner to win, and stars like Johan, Hunter, Mauer, and Morneau will someday always command a higher salary than we'll be able to spend. But there is another reality, and it includes this team not being nearly as bad as it's seemed this year. It also includes a reality where this team can stay competitive well into the future given savvy trades, intelligent drafting, and sound leadership.

Likely this isn't the article that The Nicks envisioned when they asked me to contribute this week, surely they expected something more... objective. Something that discussed the Twins 14 strikeouts, the fact that they were one-hit through 5 innings by Javier Vazquez, the injury to Baker, the continued hammering of Boof Bonser, or in general what was yet another brutally pathetic performance. But after watching todays debacle, and hearing the complaints voiced by dozens, if not hundreds of the Twins faithful throughout this season, this article seemed appropriate to me. I leave you today with the words of wisdom handed down to me from my father, a Cubs fan: "There's always next year."

The New Guy/Sunday Delight

Salutations loyal readers of Nick and Nick, or as I like to call it, N squared, two scoops (should that be capitalized as a proper noun?), the Nicks, etc... My name, in case you've somehow failed to guess, is Corey and I hail from a long defunct blog called Minnesota Sports Guys. While you'll certainly find that my writing skills are not of the caliber of Mr. Nelson (N1), nor my analytical knowledge of the game on par with Mr. Mosvick(N2), I hope I can bring my own bit of flavor to this fine site. In speaking with N1, he asked me to do a few things;

1) To avoid blatant speling eroors.
2) To make sure to post-date my pieces.
3) Introduce myself and let people know that I'll be dropping in from time to time.

Well, I'll try to avoid number one, but I'm no journalism/English major, and I think I can manage the post-dating. As for the final bit, I'm hoping that I can become a bit of a regular here on the weekends, offering my insight, and imparting knowledge (or at least crude opinions), upon this amazing audience.

With that, lets dive into post #1.

With our beloved Twins squabbling along offensively, manager Ron Gardenhire reportedly called his family physician who advised that the Twins take 3 doses of Baltimore relievers and call him after the series. Well, it would appear they've proven to be the perfect medicine as the team has scored 20 runs in the first three games of this four game set. By comparison, the Twins had scored 118 runs in the previous 37 games. So, essentially in 3 games, this team recorded 14.5% of its post All-Star break runs. Obviously thats fantastic in one sense, and terribly pathetic in another.

But, we've certainly seen some very good things other than just the string of run support. Hunter is getting hot, and when he does he has the ability to carry a team. Kubel has continued his hot August streak with his average on the month now at .385. Since June he's hitting .275 and has hit 8 of his 10 homeruns; hopefully Gardenhire will eventually get the message and stop platooning him with Tyner/White, as his batting average against lefties isn't significantly worse than it is against righties this season. While his slugging percentage is far worse, I'm convinced its more a symptom of limited at-bats than it is a problem with his approach. The only real concern I have is his strikeout rate which is alarmingly high against lefties, 30.3% vs 15.6% against righties.

Bartlett too is in the midst of a huge revival as he's hitting .311 this month and .282 since June. What's more, he's clearly benefited from the move up to the two-spot in the order, hitting .292 in that position, once again begging the question, "If so many fans knew this was such a logical move, why did it take Gardenhire so long?"

Obviously the biggest question though is why does Gardenhire, despite other healthy options which have at least shown promise, insists on continuing to play Nick Punto. Last night was yet another of so many examples -- with Buscher at third and Bartlett at short, it's like Gardenhire was just begging and pleading for some reason to use Punto over Casilla. I'm not certain what his rationale was, Casilla has been worse against righties than lefties, but seriously, how much worse can he be than Punto? Seriously.

Other than those rants though, the big news of tonight's game was Mauer's limping into third base. From my apartment here in St. Paul I think I could hear the collective groan of Twins Nation as Dick Bremer called out what is now becoming an all too familiar refrain, "and Mauer is hurt..." Watching the play it doesn't look like anything too serious, and Ms. Thesier, our friendly local beat writer, said it was just hamstring tightness, so I doubt he'll miss serious time.

Today our guys have an afternoon contest against Mr. Eric Bedard who will be countered by our very own (and very impressive) Scott Baker. With a good game from Baker that keeps us in the contest, winning a fourth game could be possible against this beaten, battered, and embarrassed bullpen. That would be just what the doctor ordered indeed.