Three-Bagger: Rosario, Kubeddyer & The Handbook

* La Velle posted an update on his blog yesterday that is definitely worth reading. It includes notes on various players and prospects. The most interesting tidbit, from my perspective, was that the Twins are trying minor-league outfielder Eddie Rosario at second base in instructional league, and plan to carry the experiment over to spring training.

Rosario, who turned 20 last month, has played the outfield exclusively in his minor-league career, which thus far has spanned only 118 games. He had a breakout season in the Appalachian Rookie League this year, batting .337/.397/.670 with 21 home runs and 60 RBI in only 67 games.

Between Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales, Oswaldo Arcia and perhaps Miguel Sano, the Twins are overloaded with talented young outfielders that have a chance to help them in the coming years. Rosario's bat is certainly looking legit after he led the Appy League in homers. If the Twins can successfully shift him from an area of organizational strength to an area of extreme weakness (middle infield), it'd be a huge win.

Rosario has played only one full professional season, so a transition to the infield could be easier than it would be for, say, Ben Revere. La Velle noted that the Puerto Rican prospect was "all for" trying second base, and that front office execs Deron Johnson and Mike Radcliff both said Rosario "looked pretty good there during instructional league."

* The same article wonders whether the Twins can afford to bring back both of their long-tenured free agent outfielders this offseason. Jason Kubel has been with the organization for 11 years and Michael Cuddyer for 14 years, so these are decisions that will be taken very seriously.

There are a lot of good arguments for bringing Cuddyer back, and I'd guess that if it comes down to a choice between the two, the Twins are leaning heavily in that direction. However, from a pure baseball standpoint, Kubel sure looks like the better bet to provide good value for the money over the life of a new contract.

After posting an .805 OPS in 2008 and a .907 OPS in 2009, Kubel is coming off a pair of down years where injuries have been an issue. This, combined with his defensive deficiencies and platoon split (which softened this year), will keep him from commanding a king's ransom on the open market. However, even with his reduced productivity over the last two years, his core numbers (.756 OPS, 33 HR, 150 RBI) are very similar to Cuddyer's (.777 OPS, 34 HR, 151 RBI).

Yes, Kubel is another lefty bat and he doesn't offer the same flexibility or leadership that Cuddyer does. But he's also three years younger and he's going to be a whole lot cheaper. It will be interesting to see how those factors weigh on the Twins.

* I'm pleased to finally announce that this year's edition of the TwinsCentric GM Handbook is now available for pre-order. If you lock up your copy now, you'll get a nice discount at 5.99 -- down from the official price of 9.99 -- and you won't have to wait long for your copy, as we'll be dropping the e-book PDF file in your virtual mailbox as soon as the World Series is finished. You can click on the image below to secure yours:

As always, the Handbook puts you in the shoes of the Twins GM and provides all the information you'll need to navigate the offseason and renovate the roster. We've got full run-downs of the free agent market, trade targets, arbitration eligibles, 40-man roster decisions and more, all packed with insight and advice from your TwinsCentric guides.

The GM Handbook has become our flagship product, and I hope that everyone who's interested in a comprehensive preview of this hugely important offseason will pick up a copy. Thanks, as always, for the support.

What's Cuddyer Worth?

The Twins have three long-time staples hitting the free agent market this offseason, making it the biggest organizational crossroad since 2007, when the contracts of Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva expired.

The team had to let both those players go, while also trading Johan Santana, because in all three cases the contract demands were exorbitant. That's how it tends to go when 29 other teams are in the negotiating mix. With Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan all set to shop themselves this winter, some tough decisions lie ahead for the brain trust at Target Field.

Unlike 2007, the Twins are equipped financially to bring back all three players, although doing so might consume the bulk of their spending money. With a daunting variety of areas to address, as I outlined on Wednesday, it seems unlikely that all three players will be retained. I suspect that one or even two of these familiar faces will land elsewhere.

Of the three, Kubel is probably most expendable. Losing his reliable righty-mashing ability would sting, but the Twins -- ideally -- already have two middle-of-the-lineup left-handed bats on the roster and he's coming off a pair of underwhelming seasons. On the flip side, his injury hampered season might keep him affordable.

Nathan would be tougher to lose. The Twins are bereft of quality right-handed relief arms, and Matt Capps almost certainly won't be back. The team will clearly decline Nathan's $12.5 million option for next year but might be able to get him back on a two-year deal at the same price. If not, there will be quite a few alternatives on the market.

Cuddyer is the guy that the Twins really don't want to let get away. He's generally considered the clubhouse leader and is cherished by coaches, teammates and fans alike. He's the team's best outfield power bat, and his ability to play first has been invaluable with Justin Morneau's ongoing injury issues. If you remove Cuddyer from the roster, the best remaining right-handed bat might be… Danny Valencia? Trevor Plouffe? Not good.

Unfortunately, of the three players discussed here Cuddyer has the most leverage entering this offseason. He's coming off a very solid campaign in which he posted an .805 OPS with 20 home runs while making his first All-Star team. He might just be the second-best right-handed bat on the market behind Albert Pujols.

The Twins reportedly offered Cuddyer a two-year, $16 million extension during the season, but they had to know that wouldn't come close to getting it done. Given his high rank within the free agent class and his sterling reputation, Cuddyer should be able to get three or even four years at an average of $10 million or more.

At that point, the Twins need to look past their affinity for him and honestly assess how they think his game will age. Locking into a contract that assures a potentially declining 36-year-old big money down the line is not a situation the Twins need to get themselves into.

My guess? The Twins' best offer will be a three-year deal, at maybe a little over $30 million, with a team option for 2015. If Cuddyer won't budge on a guaranteed fourth year, I'd guess he'll be playing for another team next season.

Contemplating Cuddyer and Kubel

Only two American League teams (Oakland and Seattle) have hit fewer home runs than Minnesota this year. After hitting just one homer at Target Field over the weekend while the visiting White Sox clubbed seven, the Twins are on pace to barely edge the 100-homer mark as a team. If they fail to reach triple digits, it would be the first time since 1980 that it's happened for this franchise.

Yes, the Twins are amidst a rather distressing power drought. And unfortunately, the outlook going forward is none too bright.

Jim Thome is not likely to return next year. There's a good chance Delmon Young will be non-tendered or traded. And no player in the Twins' farm system can safely be projected as more than a 15-HR guy in the majors.

These factors add urgency to the decisions involving Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel in the upcoming offseason. Both slugging outfielders are eligible to become free agents, and losing the two of them could prove devastating for an organization that is already desperately short on pop.

Unsurprisingly, the Twins have made it clear that they intend to pursue Cuddyer, with reports suggesting that they've already uncharacteristically tried to open negotiations midseason by offering a two-year, $16 million extension.

Cuddyer and his agent smartly turned down that offer, knowing his outstanding season amidst the Twins' meltdown in 2011 has raised his price tag. Assuming he finishes strong, I'd be surprised if Cuddyer were asking for any less than three years and $30 million once he hits the open market. He can probably get it somewhere. Hopefully not here.

I appreciate all the things Cuddyer brings as a member of this team, but the Twins are already in bad shape with some bulky contracts and handing an expensive three-year deal to a 33-year-old who's never put together consecutive good seasons is bad business.

If it comes down to a choice between the two, the Twins would probably be better off re-upping Kubel. While he, like Cuddyer, has looked great at the plate this season, Kubel has missed significant time due to injury so his stock won't be quite as high.

Prior to this year, Kubel had played at least 140 games in three straight seasons, averaging 23 home runs and 91 RBI. While his platoon splits have been a chronic issue (one that's showing signs of improvement), Kubel's bat has been at least as good as Cuddyer's and he's also three years younger.

If the Twins want to loosen the purse strings and re-sign both outfielders, so be it. But keeping Cuddyer with a hefty contract at the expense of Kubel would be a mistake. In fact, outbidding any other motivated GM for Cuddyer's services will likely backfire in the long run, worsening an already murky financial situation.

Unless Cuddy is willing to accept a hometown discount, the Twins ought to offer arbitration, let the Type A free agent walk and use the draft picks next year to replenish a depleted minor-league system.

Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

Likely Starter: Jason Kubel

Jim Mone, AP

Potential Backups: Jim Thome

For the purposes of this article, Jason Kubel is the "likely starter" at DH in that he'll probably fill the role on Opening Day, but in truth the position is more dynamic than that. Joe Mauer will invariably make a number of plate appearances there -- probably around 100 -- and Jim Thome can be expected to at least match that number in spot starts. In an ideal world, Delmon Young would also draw occasional DH duty against left-handed pitchers.

So, even if he stays healthy and productive all year, Kubel won't really be a full-time starter at designated hitter. Instead, he'll likely get his fair share of days off and play the outfield occasionally (more than occasionally in the event that either Michael Cuddyer or Justin Morneau goes down at some point).

Kubel's lack of speed makes him a liability in the outfield, so the hope is that both Morneau and Cuddyer can shake off their injury concerns and stay healthy, enabling the 28-year-old native South Dakotan's best asset -- his bat -- to take the spotlight.

In 2009, Kubel was one of the most productive designated hitters in the league, hitting .300/.369/.539 with 28 home runs and 103 RBI while gaining a reputation as one of the baseball's premier clutch hitters (at least until the playoffs rolled around).

The lefty slugger's power and run production numbers remained mostly intact last year, as he blasted 21 homers and drove in 92 runs, but his batting average dropped from .300 to .249. He struggled against southpaws, but that's nothing new; what really poisoned Kubel's performance was a drop-off against right-handers. His ..260/.328/.464 line against them -- while nothing to be embarrassed about -- looked downright human in comparison to his .322/.396/.617 line against them the prior year.

The true Kubel may lie somewhere between his dazzling '09 and his pedestrian '10, but I'm a firm believer that he's closer to the former. He was an incredible talent coming up through the minors, and while it took him several years after knee surgery to rediscover his form, there was nothing illegitimate about Kubel's brilliance in 2009. He was just a hitting machine.

We saw flashes of that last season, but without the same consistency. Maybe it was because of injuries -- he was nagged by a few different ones throughout the year. Maybe it was the new ballpark -- he posted a higher OPS on the road than at home. Maybe it was being forced out of his comfort zone -- Morneau's concussion pushed Kubel into regular outfield duty in the second half.

Whatever the case, I expect better things from Kubel this summer, and while that might be offset somewhat by a slightly less extraordinary season from Thome I still believe we can safely view designated hitter as a bona fide strength for the 2011 Twins. For a position where the sole duty is "HIT!" you can't ask for a much better trio than Kubel, Thome and Mauer.

If you had to find a downside, it would be that all three are left-handed, which brings me back to my belief that Young should be written into the DH spot against particularly daunting southpaws.

Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Kubel: .290/.350/.490, 25 HR, 90 RBI

The Core Four

In 2009, the Twins scored 817 runs, ranking them fourth in the American League. They hit 172 home runs, which -- while below the league average -- marked their highest total in the past six years and an increase of 61 from the prior season.

They managed this relatively gaudy offensive production despite underwhelming performances from such regulars as Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, Joe Crede, Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez.

The lineup's overall success in '09 was keyed by four players that comprised the heart of the lineup: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Each of the four posted an OPS of .862 or higher, went deep at least 28 times and drove in at least 94 runs, transforming an otherwise sub par offense into one of the best in the league.

Last year, the Twins' lineup featured greater balance, but scored 45 fewer runs and hit 30 fewer homers. To pinpoint this drop-off in production we need look no further than those four players.

Mauer struggled with injuries and adjustments to his new home park; his home run total dropped from 28 to nine and his OPS dropped by 160 points. Morneau was tremendous over the first half of the season but didn't play a game after July 7, finishing with career lows in home runs (18) and RBI (56). Cuddyer never seemed to get his power swing going, tallying less than half as many home runs as the previous year (from 32 to 14) and posting the lowest full-season slugging percentage of his career (.417). Kubel saw his OPS drop from .907 to .750.

In my opinion, the lineup has gotten worse around these four players since last year. I see Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka as offensive downgrades from Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, and I have a hard time expecting the same kind of production from the likes of Jim Thome and Danny Valencia.

Even if those auxiliary players don't pan out as the team hopes, though, it doesn't mean the offense can't be more productive overall. If the four players at the heart of the order can move closer to their 2009 levels of production, they can change the entire complexion of the lineup, especially with Delmon Young now adding another legitimate power bat to the mix.

Whether or not these hitters can rebound will be largely dependent on health. It seems fair to say none of the four were completely healthy last year, and unfortunately three of them are already dealing with injury issues this spring that have prevented them from being able to take the field for a game thus far.

If the "Core Four" can put these pesky problems behind them and remain relatively healthy throughout the summer, they could easily be the difference between a mediocre lineup and an upper-echelon one.

The Backup Plan

Thursday marks the deadline for Twins pitchers and catchers to report to camp in Ft. Myers. It's an annual holiday for baseball fans, and this year it will serve as prelude to a very interesting six weeks leading up to the start of the regular season. Rarely has a Twins team entered spring training with as many questions needing to be answered as this one.

How will Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer look after going through minor offseason knee surgeries? How will Scott Baker's arm look after reports of a setback in his recovery from a seemingly minor elbow surgery? Can Joe Nathan return to form just 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery? How will the middle infield and bullpen shake out?

Order the MSP Twins Annual 2011

All important questions, to be sure, but without a doubt the most discussed topic over the next month-and-a-half will be Justin Morneau. Trying to return to baseball for the first time since suffering a concussion over seven months ago, the first baseman will have his every move and word  closely scrutinized, especially with club officials hinting at the possibility that he might not be ready for Opening Day.

Everyone hopes for the best with Morneau this year. But there's a realistic chance that he suffers a setback and the team is forced to open the season without him in the lineup.

It's important that they have a plan in place for that scenario.

Last year, the Twins got by fine without Morneau by sliding Cuddyer to first, Jason Kubel to right, and Jim Thome to regular DH duty. Those players all return this year, but it's awfully optimistic to expect that plan to pay the same kind of dividends, especially if Morneau will be missing months and not weeks.

Cuddyer and Kubel are defensive liabilities when venturing out of their expected roles, and over time such liabilities become magnified. Meanwhile, it's hard to imagine Thome, who will turn 41 this season, playing almost every day without breaking down.

There's really no candidate other than Cuddyer to play first base (which makes one wonder what Ron Gardenhire would do if both he and Morneau were unavailable) but the Twins can limit Kubel's exposure in right field, which will help both his knees and their defense. Jason Repko is available, but Gardenhire will want to avoid writing his punchless bat into the lineup too frequently.

The door would be open for Ben Revere.

If the 22-year-old outfielder has another hot spring (last year he hit .326 in exhibition play) he could put himself in line for a quick call-up should Morneau open the season on the disabled list. Revere could serve as part-time right fielder, representing a massive defensive upgrade over Kubel and an offensive upgrade over Repko (especially against right-handed pitching). This would allow Thome to be used more as a bench bat and occasional DH, increasing his odds of staying healthy and productive throughout the summer.

The Twins would benefit from getting an extended look at Revere in the big leagues. Kubel and Cuddyer will both be free agents after this season, and Delmon Young could be due for another significant pay raise. There's a good chance that the team will have an opening at one or both of their corner outfield spots, and I'm sure the organization would like nothing more than for the inexpensive, speedy and likable Revere to step in. Gaining some valuable experience this year would help prepare him for the challenge.

Revere looked pretty raw in his first sampling of the majors last September, and he has yet to spend any time above the Double-A level in the minors. But, if he looks the part this spring, there's no denying that he's an appealing option should Cuddyer be forced to serve as the team's first baseman.

If he's able to make meaningful contributions to the big-league club less than four years after joining the pro ranks, Revere would go a long way toward proving wrong those of us who doubted the Twins' wisdom when they reached for him in the first round of the 2007 draft.

---

The image in this article is the first page of a story I wrote about Morneau and concussions for the Maple Street Press Twins Annual 2011, which can be ordered here. This is your chance to get it before it even hits newsstands. Thanks to all for the support!

Losing the Fever?

"I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more Kubel."

-Christopher Walken on my sidebar.

I went to a game this summer with an out-of-town friend who'd come to check out Target Field.

He was amazed by the stadium, but sometime during the second inning he paused with alarm while sipping his beer.

"Are the fans booing one of their own players?" he asked.

I was confused. Then I noticed Jason Kubel was batting. "Oh, no," I chuckled, "they're saying KUUUUUUBES."

"I see," he sighed with a sense of relief. "I didn't think Minnesota fans would do that."

If only he could see us now. Kubel went 0-for-8 in the ALDS this year, giving him a 2-for-29 career mark in the playoffs, and now I can barely find a Twins fan who doesn't want him shipped out during the offseason. Granted, Kubel had a fairly substandard season this year, but he did rank second on the team in home runs, and second in RBI. It's not like he wasn't producing. What is wrong with these people?

Due to his anemic postseason numbers, there seems to be some question about Kubel's fortitude. This blows my mind. Kubel, as a major-league player, has an OPS sixty points higher with runners in scoring position than with bases empty. A career .394 hitter with the bases loaded, Kubel has hit seven grand slams. He's delivered some of the most memorable clutch hits of the past two seasons. He single-handedly broke the Yankees' spell over the Twins with a game-winning grand slam against Mariano Rivera in Yankee Stadium. It's silly to think that this man folds under pressure.

So, to what can we attribute Kubel's dismal postseason results? My guess would be circumstances and a lack of luck.

Kubel's first playoff experience came in 2004, when he was a 22-year-old rookie with one whole month of big-league experience under his belt. He went 1-for-7 with a double and an unforgettable late-inning strikeout against Mariano Rivera. Painful, but it's hard to hold that performance against him.

Kubel's next postseason experience didn't come until 2009, when he participated in the first of two consecutive ALDS sweeps against the Yankees. In six games between the two series, Kubel went 1-for-22 with 11 strikeouts. Ugly numbers, no doubt. But four of those six games were started by CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, both outstanding left-handers.

He is miserable against lefties. It's no secret, but it doesn't make him a bad player. He was also arguably the most dangerous hitter in the league against right-handers in 2009, and slugged 19 homers against them this past season even in a down year. Given that around 70 percent of the league's pitchers tend to throw with their right arm, a player like that has plenty of value.

The Twins have a $5.25 million option to retain Kubel's services for next season. Sure, they could buy it out for $350,000 and let him loose. But who's going to make up his 20 home runs in 2011? He's hit at least that many three years in a row and it's not often that the Twins come across players with such consistent power production. What happens if he goes somewhere else (say, to the White Sox, who sorely need a power-hitting DH) and has another season like his spectacular 2009? The Twins would look every bit as foolish as the Sox did this year for letting Jim Thome slip away to a division rival.

I'll concede that Kubel's upcoming salary is somewhat substantial for a player who can't competently field or hit right-handed pitching. If he doesn't improve on his performance from this year, it'd be a poor use of funds. But the Twins are already pumping far more money into Joe Nathan, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer, against all of whom Kubel looks like an incredibly safe bet. We know what the slugging lefty is capable of and earlier this season hometown fans were offended by the thought that he'd be booed at a home game.

Just because he failed to come through in eight postseason at-bats -- most of them unfavorable match-ups -- those same hometown fans are ready to run him out of town? It's a complete overreaction that hopefully will not gain any consideration from the front office.

Not So Easy to Find

Prior to last season, when the Twins handed Jason Kubel a two-year contract extension, Dave Cameron wrote an article over at Fangraphs criticizing the move. The piece asserted that Kubel was essentially a run-of-the-mill designated hitter and that the Twins could find similarly effective options on cheap one-year deals, negating the need for a guaranteed multi-year contract. As an example, he pointed to Eric Hinske, who'd inked a one-year pact with the Pirates around the time the Twins locked up Kubel.

Cameron is one of the brightest baseball analysts in the country for my money, but I found this take to be a rare whiff for him. His logic was flawed in so many ways that I immediately took the opportunity to write up my own column refuting his points. The takeaway:

The reward, which Cameron seems to believe doesn’t exist, is that the Twins have locked up a young, improving, in-house slugger to fill a position that has been a huge liability for them historically, and they’ve done so at a very reasonable price.

Cameron's column seemed completely silly after Kubel broke out last year with a monster campaign in which he posted a .907 OPS while homering 28 times and driving in 103 runs. It was precisely the type of season that many Twins fans (including myself) had long been hoping for.

With Kubel taking a step back this season, Cameron took the opportunity today to pat himself on the back with the following tweet:

Jason Kubel: .335 wOBA, 0.4 WAR. Eric Hinske: .333 wOBA, 0.6 WAR. Maybe I'm not crazy after all...

If I were Cameron, I'd be trying to forget I ever wrote that terribly misguided article, but now he's defending it? After Kubel emerged as one of the league's best designated hitters last year while Hinske posted a mediocre .780 OPS in limited duty between two clubs? Oh, never mind last season... according to Cameron, that was a fluke.

He positions the standout campaign as an anomaly based on the fact that Kubel's 2010 numbers look quite similar to the ones he posted in 2007 and 2008. The thing is, those numbers aren't bad. Kubel's current .774 OPS rates better than the average DH and also ranks him fourth on a Twins offense that has been one of the league's very best this year. This type of performance has essentially been established as Kubel's baseline, and his numbers in 2009 were no more a fluke than Mauer's '09 or Justin Morneau's 2010 (prior to injury). Sometimes good hitters have really good years, and the Twins -- like myself -- were of the belief that Kubel was a good hitter.

My main issue with Cameron, then and now, is that he looks at issues such as this through an isolated, statistical scope while failing to account for any contextual factors. Never mind that Kubel was a minor-league monster who spent several seasons working his way back to form after a devastating knee injury, leading to the underwhelming numbers that Cameron used as a basis for his Hinske comp. Never mind that Kubel's production, even before that breakout '09 campaign, was especially valuable to a Twins club that had often struggled to find legitimate power hitters in years past. (If Kubel hits one more home run this season, he'll become the team's third player to have three straight 20-HR seasons in the past decade.) Never mind that, in spite of Cameron's assertion that competent and inexpensive designated hitters can easily be found each year on the scrap heap, the position had been a liability for the Twins ever since David Ortiz's departure.

Cameron's core point was that a team could potentially get cheaper DH production from a free agent found on a one-year deal, and there's some validity to that. In hindsight, I'm sure you could find a less expensive option with similar production to what Kubel's given the Twins in three of the past four years. But it's awfully hard to predict how players -- especially those who haven't been in your organization -- are going to perform and Kubel seemed like a safe option, having put together two straight strong seasons and having shown the potential for more.

Adam Lind led all qualifying designated hitters in OPS last year and this year he ranks last. There's a reason that Hinske, Cameron's suggested alternative, has not been able to stick with any club for more than a year since 2006. It's a volatile game, and the Twins made a safe bet on Kubel that -- at this point -- looks awfully smart to everyone except Cameron in light of the fact that they would have likely had to pay Kubel quite a bit more this season based on last year's production had they not already locked him up for $4 million.

Perhaps I'm overreacting to this whole situation because I've always been bullish on Kubel and because I find Cameron extremely aggravating to engage in debate because of his blatant air of condescension. But it stuns me that, at this point, a person so intelligent can still try to smugly defend an article that featured this statement as its central premise:

"In what world is Jason Kubel a significantly better player than Eric Hinske?"

The real world, Mr. Cameron, which apparently is not the one you live in.

As Grand as it Gets

Last week, Twins Geek wrote about one of the most memorable regular-season home runs in Twins history, a blast by Harmon Killebrew in 1965 that salvaged a series for the Twins and proved that their talented team could indeed hang with dynastic Yankees, who'd owned the American League over the prior two decades or so.

Sound familiar?

The Twins entered the eighth inning yesterday seemingly headed for a 13th straight loss against the Yankees. They'd come to New York looking to prove their legitimacy in the American League, but over the first two games of the series the Twins had seen their offense fail time and time again to come up with a big hit while the pitchers had folded in the face of a powerful Yankee offense.

So when Mariano Rivera, who hadn't allowed a run all season, stepped in to protect a two-run lead with the bases loaded in the top of the eighth, one hardly could believe good results were in store for the Twins. Their ineptitude with the bases loaded this season had been a trend nearly as frustrating as their longtime problems with the Yankees. They'd amassed a .157 average, with five double plays and only one extra-base hit (a double), in 61 plate appearances with the bases full. The offense had generally been chugging along nicely, but the hitters had continually failed to come up with the big hit in the big situation. Alas, it was difficult to envision that it was going to come against perhaps the game's greatest closer of all time, who'd been invulnerable all year.

Jim Thome pushed a run across for the Twins with a walk, narrowing the lead to one. Fans yawned. Sure, the Twins had scratched out an important run, but they still had not found that elusive game-changing knock. In stepped Jason Kubel, riding a terrible early-season slump -- evidenced by a .224 average with just two home runs -- and 0-for-3 with two strikeouts on the day.

When Kubel drove that Rivera pitch over the wall, it turned a depressing series sweep into a potential momentum builder. Rauch came out to pitch the ninth and let two runners get on base, but rather than folding he stepped up to strike out the top three hitters in the Yankee lineup consecutively, slamming the door shut on a lengthy losing streak in the Bronx.

Now that the Twins have remembered how to get a big hit with the bases juiced and remembered what it feels like to notch a big victory in an East Coast town, we'll see how their demeanor is in Toronto and Boston this week. It'd be no surprise if they walk into Rogers Centre tonight with a bit more swagger, having freshly removed a pair of big monkeys from their backs.

Maybe the Twins keep struggling on the second and third legs of this road trip. Maybe they prove just as snake bit against the Yankees when they face them later this month at Target Field as they have over the majority of the past two years. And maybe the 2010 club's Kubel, Morneau, Mauer, Thome and Cuddyer don't follow the same path as the 1965 club's Killebrew, Mincher, Versailles, Allison and Oliva in leading the Twins to an AL pennant.

But just maybe Kubel's incredible grand slam today will be commemorated in a blog post 45 years from now as the blast that enabled a championship team to turn a crucial corner.

Playing Against the Percentages

I'm generally supportive of Ron Gardenhire. He runs a good clubhouse and you can't argue with the results he's gotten since taking the helm here in Minnesota. With that being said, it is not infrequent that the man makes a completely illogical managerial decision that drives me bonkers. I had been wondering when the first such occasion would arise in this young season; it happened last night, when Gardenhire elected to work Jim Thome into the starting lineup by benching Jason Kubel rather than Delmon Young.

Ervin Santana, who started the game for the Angels, was basically a nightmare match-up for Young. Over the course of his career, Young has hit just .232/.266/.308 against "power pitchers" -- a term referring to hurlers who rank among the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. That's a category that Santana will typically fall into with his nasty stuff and somewhat shaky control. Additionally, Young has posted a weak .715 OPS against right-handed pitchers, while the righty Santana has been substantially more effective against same-handed batters over the course of his career. It was a fairly obvious instance in which Young should have sat.

Instead, Gardenhire decided to bench Kubel, one of the league's premier hitters against right-handed pitching. Last year, Kubel posted a phenomenal 1.014 OPS against righties, and Santana was clubbed by lefty hitters to the tune of .323/.385/.526. Perfect match-up. Yet, Gardenhire didn't see it that way -- likely because Kubel had previously only managed two hits against Santana in a meaningless 14 at-bat sample.

Giving Thome a start at DH last night was a good choice. Doing so by sitting Kubel against a pitcher he was almost ideally suited to face was astonishingly misguided. Some might argue that it's a moot point, given that the Twins won the game in spite of Young's 0-for-4 performance. But the guiding philosophy behind this decision is a significant flaw in Gardy's managerial approach, and one that is likely to manifest repeatedly throughout the season.

Gardenhire's a good manager overall, but he's far from perfect. Last night, we were reminded of that. Fortunately, the Twins still won, reminding us that -- while impactful -- singular lineup decisions don't determine who wins and loses games. The players do. Hopefully Kubel will be back in the lineup to help the Twins win tonight with another right-hander on the hill.

Joy and Pain -- Mostly Pain

The Twins moved back into the win column yesterday with their first comeback victory that I can remember. Joe Mauer continued his incredible August run by homering twice and improving his seasonal hitting line to a ridiculous .383/.448/.653 while Michael Cuddyer chipped in three hits and Delmon Young once again flashed his power stroke by homering, doubling and driving in four. It wasn't exactly the day's biggest Minnesota sports story, but it was still nice to see the Twins show some life and win a game.

Still, there were plenty of negatives to be drawn from the contest. Carl Pavano struggled again, surrendering five runs over four innings (unbelievable how this rotation has become completely incapable of piecing even five-inning starts with any consistency). Worse yet, Jason Kubel exited after fouling a ball directly into the knee he injured and had surgically repaired several years ago. The injury is being labeled as a contusion, but fans are understandably on edge. Kubel was sporting a 1307 OPS in the month of August, making this timing rather unfortunate.

The Twins are in pretty dire straits right now. Three of their original starting pitchers are on the shelf, and La Velle's blog entry from prior to last night's game made it seem like the recall of struggling farmhand Philip Humber was more out of desperation for a usable arm than any thoughts that he's going to realistically help this team win games. At this rate, they're going to have a tough time staying in even third place.

And just for the heck of it, my thoughts on the Brett Favre situation...

As a person who has followed and cheered for the Vikings for much of my life, of course I have historically rued Favre. And of course, like almost any sports fan, I've grown extremely tired of his indecisive "Will I or won't I?" retirement act after each of the past five or so seasons. I hate the way announcers drool over him, I hate the way he carelessly heaves balls into triple-coverage and gets credited for being courageous, and I hate the way every one of his bonehead plays is passed off as the result of a guy "having fun out there." But, I'm a Vikings fan and I want to see this team win, and I have little doubt that his addition makes this a far better football team.

I have always felt -- and continue to feel -- that Favre is a vastly overrated quarterback. To me, anyone who would claim that he's the greatest quarterback ever to play is out of their mind. But let's keep the facts straight here. He is literally the most experienced quarterback in NFL history, he'll have no trouble acclimating to the offensive system employed by the Vikings, he's still seemingly got a pretty good arm, and I trust him a heck of a lot more to make tough plays in key situations than either of the team's current backup-quality options at the quarterback position.

Detractors can point toward Favre's advanced age and well as his injury-hampered performance late last season, but the fact remains that he was excellent in 2007 and quite effective for the first 10 weeks of last season before his arm ailment became an overwhelming issue. That injury was ostensibly corrected by a recent surgical procedure, and even if his body isn't what it once was, I'd still bet almost anything on him being an upgrade over what the Vikings currently boast. Sage Rosenfels is a similarly mistake-prone pocket passer who lacks the experience and talent of Favre, and Tarvaris Jackson is an athletic but hugely flawed player who has shown very little progress since being drafted. Some might say that this Vikings roster is so stacked with talent that they need only a somewhat reliable caretaker at the quarterback position in order to succeed, but I don't trust Rosenfels or Jackson to be even that. And, apparently, neither does Brad Childress.

The Vikings are an extremely well built team right now, with the league's best running back and a dominating defense. Relying on a second-string quarterback like Rosenfels or Jackson to run this machine would have been fairly depressing; Favre has the tools to run this offense smoothly and keep opposing defenses from being able to stack nine players on Adrian Peterson. He's also got plenty of experience in the postseason, where the Vikings were likely to end up regardless of who was taking their snaps (some might take issue with that statement, but I do not think the NFC North is a particularly impressive division).

If all goes well and major injuries are avoided, the Vikings have a great shot at the Super Bowl, and it could well be that Favre is the guy first guy to grab and hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That might make some fans' blood boil, but I'd welcome it. It would be an incredibly unique story in the history of sports and I'd be proud to watch it all unfold. And while many lifelong Vikings fans won't necessarily be all that ecstatic about Favre's individual success, there will be 52 other players on that Vikings roster that shouldn't be forgotten.

Kubel's Vindication

Take a look at American League designated hitters listed by OPS and you'll find a familiar name atop the leaderboard. Jason Kubel's monster year has been overshadowed somewhat by the accomplishments of Joe Mauer -- who in three short months has already set a career high for homers while accumulating league-leading figures in on-base percentage and slugging percentage -- and Justin Morneau -- who leads all AL hitters in home runs and RBI and could even be a legitimate Triple Crown candidate if his average were just a tad higher. Yet, Kubel has developed into one of the league's premier sluggers and finally proven himself as the answer to this organization's long-standing woes at the DH position. It's been a long time coming.

Kubel has traveled a lengthy and difficult road to get to this point. He seemed poised to join Morneau and Mauer as a three-headed lefty-hitting monster several years ago before a devastating knee injury cost him his 2005 season and essentially cost him the following one as well as he battled residual injury effects and struggled to find himself at the plate. During that span, fans grew exasperated with Kubel's inconsistency. Ron Gardenhire became impatient and handed Kubel only sporadic playing time. Without a doubt, there were times when Kubel looked absolutely lost at the plate, and seemed nothing like a guy capable of developing into an elite hitter. But through it all, many people remained confident in Kubel and continued to bear in mind his spectacular minor-league track record and the unfortunate circumstances that had derailed his progression.

Last October, I drew a comparison between Kubel and the notorious "one that got away," David Ortiz. The point of the article was to dissuade notions that trading Kubel was a wise idea in light of the fact that he was a similarly talented hitter who had struggled with injury problems but had shown signs that a major breakout could be on tap. I noted in the article that I didn't expect Kubel to turn into the same type of hitter as did Ortiz -- a fearsome, elite power-hitting DH -- but he has in fact come closer than expected. Not only does Kubel lead all designated hitters in OPS, he also ranks sixth among all American League players in slugging percentage. He won't hit 40 home runs (not this year, anyway), but he's already tallied 40 extra-base hits in 310 at-bats and his immense power is undeniable.

Contemplating Kubel's success also reminded me of an article Dave Cameron wrote for FanGraphs back in January when Kubel signed his new contract with the Twins. Cameron essentially argued that "marginal" hitters of Kubel's caliber were not terribly difficult to find and that the Twins had overpaid substantially to lock up his services. While normally a big fan of Cameron's work, I took issue with the article at the time, pointing out some blatant fallacies in the presented argument, and at this point his take just looks flat-out ridiculous. Imagine what shape the Twins would be in if they had cut Kubel this winter and signed Eric Hinske in his stead. Yikes.

In Games 2 and 3 of their 2006 ALDS series against the A's, the Twins trotted out Jason Tyner as their designated hitter, which they'd done with some frequency during that season. Three years later, they boast a DH who leads the league in OPS at his position, is prime-aged and is locked up for the next two years. They have come a long way from those dark days of DH ineptitude, and they have patience to thank for it.

Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

Likely Starter: Jason Kubel
2008 Stats: .273/.335/.471, 20 HR, 78 RBI

Is this the year Kubel takes the next step?

Potential Backups: Delmon Young, Brian Buscher, Joe Crede

Last year, I expected big things from Jason Kubel. Believing he'd thrive as a regular DH, I predicted that he'd post a hitting line that mirrored his work in the minors while ripping 20 homers and driving in 85 runs. In some ways, my projection was far too optimistic -- obviously Kubel was nowhere close to the .310 average or .380 on-base percentage I foresaw. In fact, his numbers in both those categories were almost exactly the same as the year before, which was disappointing. However, Kubel did make major strides in the power department, matching my 20-homer prediction precisely and coming very close to 85 RBI.

While Kubel's 2008 season wasn't necessarily the coming-out party I'd hoped for, it was in many ways a breakout year. He proved himself as a legitimate power threat in a lineup that sorely lacks pop, and in doing so earned himself a new contract. Yet, in order for Kubel to take the next step and become a truly great hitter, he needs to bring the batting average closer to the level he was at in the minors, where he was a .320 career hitter.

It's possible that this just isn't going to happen. Kubel has transformed into a very different hitter than he was in the minor leagues, one capable of hitting for more power but also one who strikes out far more often and doesn't hit for the big averages. Yet, what if he could maintain the solid power while cutting down on strikeouts and bringing up the AVG/OBP?

One thing that is worth noting about Kubel's 2008 numbers is that -- like his 2007 numbers -- they were marred by a very slow start. On June 1 last year, Kubel held a dismal .238/.285/.384 hitting line. Then, over the last four months of the season, he batted .290/.364/.519 for an 883 OPS -- basically identical to the 880 OPS I predicted. In those final four months, Kubel also cut his strikeout-to-walk ratio to 1.5 after fanning more than three times for every walk in April and May.

Of course, we can't simply ignore the first two months of the season, and indeed it's starting to look like slow starts might be a persistent trend for Kubel (although the torrid spring he's currently having sparks some hope that he can break from that pattern this season). Furthermore, Kubel may not be able to match the career-high 517 plate appearances that he racked up last year since he'll likely be platooned to some degree with Delmon Young. Of course, all it takes is one injury in the outfield for Young to be needed elsewhere, and while Kubel's major-league track record against southpaws isn't pretty, I'm fairly confident he could hold his own against left-handers in the long run and I think he'll get a chance to see more of them if he's hitting well.

It seems like it's been forever since Kubel suffered that devastating knee injury in the Arizona Fall League that nearly derailed his career, but he's still only 26 years old. While the process has been slower than some would like, Kubel has been making steady adjustments and improvements since missing the entire 2005 season, and at times he's shown flashes of the phenomenal hitter that he was as a prospect. The final four months of the 2008 season gave us a prolonged glimpse of that player.

Now, he's right in the middle of his prime, working with a fresh contract, hitting in a lineup featuring some solid bats, and finally working with the full confidence of his manager (I don't think we'll see him benched on Opening Day in favor of Craig Monroe this year). Everything seems set up for Kubel to put together the big year I've been anticipating for some time. I would not be shocked if he finishes with better numbers than Justin Morneau.

Predicted 2009 Hitting Line for Kubel: .295/.365/.490, 25 HR, 80 RBI

Kubel's Contract, Cameron's Comments

The terms of Jason Kubel’s new contract have been disclosed, and they’re even better than I’d anticipated: two years, $7.2 million with a club option for 2011. The Twins will pay Kubel $2.75 million this year, $4.1 million in 2010 and -- should they choose to activate their option -- $5.1 million in 2011. Those terms compare very favorably to the annual salaries I guessed Kubel would make over this three-year deal ($3M/$5M/$7M).

Consider this: the 2009 season is the first year Michael Cuddyer would have been eligible for free agency, and as part of his new contract he’ll be making $6.75 million. Cuddyer has had only one season (2006) in his entire career in which he has posted better offensive numbers than Kubel has in each of his past two. Kubel has improved in each of the past two seasons and is reaching his peak years, so there’s no reason to believe he won’t either sustain or improve his performance over the next three seasons. So, in all likelihood, the Twins will be paying Kubel more than $1.5 million less in his first free-agent eligible season than they are Cuddyer, in spite of the fact that Kubel has pretty clearly established himself as the better hitter. This is a nice contract.

Dave Cameron doesn’t think so. In an article published Wednesday on FanGraphs.com, Cameron asserts that Kubel is basically the same player as Eric Hinske, who signed with the Pirates this week for $1.5 million, and uses this for the basis of an argument that paints Kubel’s contract as a needless risk for the Twins.

Let me first say that I am a huge fan of Dave Cameron. His work at the U.S.S. Mariner is outstanding and he’s truly one of my very favorite baseball bloggers outside of Minnesota. That’s why it pains me to say that he is woefully misguided on this topic.

From a purely statistical standpoint, there is some merit to the Kubel/Hinske comparison. Hinske is a .254/.335/.438 career hitter; Kubel weighs in at .268/.326/.445. Both rate dreadfully in the field, both display some nice left-handed power, both have fairly similar K/BB rates. What Cameron effectively ignores is that Hinske is four-and-a-half years older than Kubel and has nearly 1,800 more major-league at-bats. The only time Cameron makes any mention of the age difference between the two players is in this paragraph:

Yes, Hinske’s five years older, but MLB is full of players with that skillset. Minnesota could have just used Hinske this year, then found his clone next winter, and so on and so forth. Same reward with none of the associated risk that goes with multiyear contracts.

This is a completely baffling sentiment. First of all, five years of age and 1,800 at-bats of big-league experience are not inconsequential. We know what Hinske is by this point, but the fact that Kubel was a minor-league stud who missed a year of crucial development time due to a devastating knee injury and has been steadily improving ever since makes it much harder to judge what he’s capable of. In Kubel, I see a player who is inching closer and closer to the monster hitter he was in the minors. In Hinske, I see a washout whose utility doesn’t stretch beyond left-handed pinch hitter. The two players may share a “skillset” but are likely to be on opposite ends of the spectrum this year as far as how effective their skills really are.

As for Cameron’s suggested plan of using Hinske this year, then finding his “clone” next winter and continuing that path to keep the DH spot filled... it's fine in theory, but it's also something the Twins have shown absolutely no ability to do historically. As easy as it ostensibly is to find decent hitters who can fill the DH role, the Twins went almost half a decade without a competent player in that spot until Kubel’s emergence.

As for the supposed risk associated with the contract, the Twins are paying Kubel about a million more than Hinske will make this year (inconsequential considering their budget surplus) and they’re on the hook for $4.1 million in 2010, which they can pretty easily afford. That’s it. That’s all the risk they’re assuming. They can buy out his option for a paltry $350K in 2011 if his game goes to hell. The reward, which Cameron seems to believe doesn’t exist, is that the Twins have locked up a young, improving, in-house slugger to fill a position that has been a huge liability for them historically, and they’ve done so at a very reasonable price. No need to search the scrap heap on an annual basis for the supposedly ever-present slugging DH that is always available for a million bucks. Those who have followed the Twins are sure to appreciate this luxury, and one would think a person who had to suffer through Jose Vidro as a DH a year ago would appreciate it as well.

Making the Rounds

We're only about a month away from the deadline for pitchers and catchers to report to spring training, yet one hardly gets the feeling that this offseason is winding down with so many free agents remaining unsigned and with the Twins having made virtually no moves to bring in external help up to this point.

In the coming days I plan to touch on a few more of the topics that readers suggested last week when I opened the floor to post ideas, but for today I'm going to get caught up on recent Twins-related news... at least what there is of it.

* La Velle E. Neal III reports that the Twins are moving closer to signing Eric Gagne in what would stand as the team's first legitimate effort to augment its battered bullpen this offseason. Once an elite closer for the Dodgers, Gagne hit an injury wall in his late 20s, pitching only 15 2/3 innings between the 2005 and 2006 seasons due to back and elbow problems. He's been mostly ineffective since returning from Tommy John surgery and was a disaster for the Brewers last year, but the Twins have money to blow and Gagne has plenty of upside if he can get healthy.

There's little downside to handing Gagne a one-year deal, but he's hardly the slam-dunk bullpen upgrade that some were hoping for this offseason.

* Also from Neal, we learn that the Twins have signed Jason Kubel to a two-year deal. That news initially struck me as uninteresting, but an update to Neal's post indicating that the contract also includes a club option for the 2011 season makes me like the signing a lot. Kubel has two years of arbitration remaining, so a two-year deal would have done nothing other than give the team cost certainty over the next couple seasons, since they'd have been in no danger of losing him anyway. The option for a third year puts Kubel under the team's control through his first year of free agency, though since they're not fully committed, they are protected in the event that Kubel's injury problems resurface or his performance takes an unforeseen dive.

I'm convinced that Kubel is going to be a key component of this offense over the next several years; getting him locked up for the next three seasons gives us one less thing to worry about. Terms of the deal have not yet been released, but my guess is that Kubel will earn something like $3 million and $5 million over the next two years, with the option registering somewhere around $7 million.

* Joe Mauer, who underwent a minor kidney surgery this offseason, announced a while ago that he'd be skipping the World Baseball Classic festivities and has now indicated that he may not be ready for the start of spring training. That Mauer is passing on the WBC is hardly disappointing given the strenuous workload a catcher experiences and the importance of his health. I'll admit that I am slightly concerned to hear that he likely won't be ready by the start of spring training. The organization continues to indicate that there is no cause to worry, but far too often I've seen these seemingly small issues linger on for weeks.

As Mauer goes, so go the Twins. In 2005 and 2007 the catcher was limited by injuries and the Twins struggled. In 2006 and 2008 Mauer was a healthy MVP-caliber player and the Twins were a playoff-caliber team. It's almost difficult to imagine the Twins not contending in a season where Mauer is fully healthy and productive.

Jason Kubel: The Next David Ortiz?

When around fans of certain teams, simply saying a particular name aloud can cause a visible cringe or an audible groan. For Red Sox fans, "Bill Buckner" or "Bucky Dent" can get the job done. For Cubs fans, "Steve Bartman." For Giants fans, "A.J. Pierzynski." And the name that will always hit home for Twins fans is David Ortiz.

We all know the story. Ortiz was an under-performing slugger who the Twins elected to release after the 2002 season. Ortiz signed with the Red Sox and exploded. He developed into a perennial MVP candidate and perhaps the best designated hitter in the game. In six years since leaving the Twins, Ortiz has hit .297 while averaging 38 home runs and 121 RBI while helping the Sox to two World Championships and gaining a reputation as baseball's best clutch hitter. Meanwhile, the Twins have run out an assortment of failed designated hitter options -- from Matt LeCroy to Jose Offerman to Rondell White -- while never having any player come particularly close to Ortiz's average home run output.

Finally, for the first time since Ortiz's departure, the Twins look to have a legitimate DH option in Jason Kubel. It has taken the former star prospect some time to find his stroke after losing a year to a knee injury, but this season he finally started to show what he's capable of this year by hitting 20 homers, driving in 78 runs and slugging .471. Yet, for whatever reason, some fans feel that the team can't get rid of Kubel soon enough.

I have perused several message boards and blogs where fans have suggested that the Twins trade Kubel this offseason or hold off on offering him a long-term contract. Have these people learned nothing from the Ortiz fiasco? If comparing the two seems like a stretch, look more closely.

Both Kubel and Ortiz showed signs of being very good hitters while with the Twins, but both struggled with injuries and inconsistency, which caused the front office (and some fans) to sour on them. Take a look at the numbers Ortiz put up in 2002, his last season with the Twins, as a 25-year-old:

412 AB, .272/.339/.500, 20 HR, 75 RBI

Now compare those numbers to the ones Kubel posted this year as a 26-year-old:

463 AB, .272/.335/.471, 20 HR, 78 RBI

After being released by the Twins, Ortiz signed on with the Red Sox and hit .288/.369/.592 with 31 homers and 101 RBI. The following year he hit .301/.380/.603 with 41 homers and 139 RBI. And so forth.

I'm not saying that anyone should expect Kubel to turn into that type of hitter. But I cannot for the life of me understand why such a large faction of the fanbase has it in for him. This is a guy who hit 20 home runs on a team that ranked last in the league in long balls. He's a guy who hit two homers and a triple in the first game of that magnficent and hugely important series against the White Sox at the Metrodome late in the season. And he's a guy that still can improve. Kubel hit .320 in the minor leagues, there is plenty of reason to believe he can raise that average and his OBP and SLG along with it.

As Ortiz taught us, it's important to be patient with young hitters, which is why some people should rethink their eagerness in suggesting that the Twins trade Kubel or Delmon Young this offseason. I am very satisfied with the year that Kubel had and I don't feel that he's necessarily done growing as a hitter, which is why I strongly advocate that the Twins explore signing him to a three-year deal this offseason, thus locking up his remaining years of arbitration as well as his first year of free agency.

This organization doesn't produce hitters of Kubel's caliber often. It's important that the Twins do everything they can to make sure they don't let another one slip away.

Persisting Issues

While the Twins offense poured it on the Mariners yesterday in completing a sweep at the Metrodome, a persisting issue was painfully clear amidst the victory that should be discussed before any other topics: the bullpen.

After Glen Perkins gave up three home runs in the sixth inning, which in and of itself was a disappointment, Boof Bonser came in the game for the seventh, only to promptly serve up three hits and two runs, including a Raul Ibanez RBI double. (Ibanez, by the way, has destroyed Twins pitching this year, at a 13-for-19 clip, with two doubles, two home runs, and 12 RBI.) Bonser was replaced by Matt Guerrier in the eight, who continued his trek to completely unreliable, getting only one out while giving up one hit, two runs, and two walks. Guerrier's ERA now stands at an ugly 4.94, having given up a shocking 12 earned runs in just 5 1/3 August innings and 15 earned runs in 11 post-All Star break innings.

If any one particular member of the bullpen stands out in terms of the current obvious issues, it's Guerrier. But the bullpen's failings didn't stop with Guerrier last night, as Dennys Reyes came in and allowed an inherited runner to score with some help from Brendan Harris' mediocre arm. Of course, once Joe Nathan came in with the bases loaded, the fire was finally put out with a strikeout of Adrian Beltre. Nathan completed a scoreless ninth for his 33rd save, but his dominance is practically a given at this point. Unfortunately, it seems that he is also the only known quantity right now.

Needless to say, the bullpen allowing a 10-4 lead to quickly shrink to 10-8 speaks volumes about the principle issue for the Twins right now. We have often pointed this out on this blog, but it is a persisting issue that cannot be ignored when the problem is slapping the team in the face. Thankfully, the offense was out in full force against a terrible Mariners pitching staff.

The duo of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau powered the lineup over the weekend sweep, going a combined 9-for-22 with two home runs, six walks, eight runs scored, and eight RBI. Now, while Mauer and Morneau's offensive dominance is expected by most Twins fans, we may have lost the biggest offensive star of the weekend in the wake: Jason Kubel. Kubel went 8-for-10 with six RBI, one home run, two doubles, and five runs scored, raising his line to .278/.339/.486.

With high expectations over the years, sometimes Kubel's offensive production has been minimized, but enough cannot be said about a .486 SLG from a Twins hitter not named Mauer or Morneau with the majority of his at-bats coming at the DH position. An .825 OPS is not only impressive for a Twin, but is even more impressive given how offense is down throughout the major leagues.

Granted, the Twins should beat up on what might be the worst team in the majors, but beating up on the Mariners also meant that the Twins managed to tie with the White Sox for first place and stay there. The offensive output was certainly positive, but fans should keep in mind that the persisting bullpen issues haven't even gone away in wins and may remain the major obstacle to the Twins post-season chances.

Still Winning

Over their past three series, the Twins have gone 5-4. That's not a great record when two of the series were against the Mariners and Royals, but here's the bright side: all four games the Twins lost during that span were eminently winnable. In Seattle, the Twins dropped a pair of games after the bullpen blew late leads. The single losses to Kansas City and New York both came in 12-inning affairs. One can fume about the bullpen's ineffectiveness in most of those losses or the team's inability to close out wins, but I think it's a pretty optimistic sign that the Twins were hardly outplayed in any of the losses and -- had they taken care of business -- they quite easily could have gone 8-1 or even 9-0 during that span.

The Twins aren't flashy, but they continue to play well and win. They stepped up to the challenge presented by the Yankees this week, and haven't lost a series at home since early June. Many felt that the Twins' mid-season success was unsustainable, buoyed by fortunately timed hits and starting pitchers performing over their heads. Yet, here they are, just a game out of first place on August 15. And with Francisco Liriano recently joining the rotation and providing a massive upgrade over Livan Hernandez while Delmon Young's bat continues to heat up, these Twins don't seem to be going away. The final six weeks should be very interesting.

Here are some various notes to take you into the weekend:

* Carlos Silva, whom the Twins will face tonight in their series opener against the Mariners, recently ranted to the press about a perceived lack of effort from his teammates. Said Silva (while oddly referring to himself in the third-person):

"Maybe Chief [Silva] has to come and grab somebody in his neck and pin them to the wall," Silva told reporters. "I'm very close to doing that, so write that down.

"Maybe half of the team wants to do the best they can. I can talk about the starting rotation; we want to do our best every time we cross that line, you know?" he said. "But maybe half of the team doesn't have that mentality. They only think to finish strong and to put up the numbers. That's great, but that affects us. As a team, that doesn't work out.

"Instead of moving a runner, they want to get a base hit just because of the numbers. Instead of to get a ground ball, maybe I want to strike him out because of my numbers, you know what I mean? That's what we're doing right now.

"I don't care if we are 40 games behind, we should play better than this."

Silva's accusations are somewhat humorous, considering that as hard as he's supposedly trying he still sports a 4-13 record and 5.93 ERA. But furthermore, it's interesting to note that his brand of leadership involves calling out his teammates publicly rather than airing out complaints internally in the clubhouse. This is a commonality that Silva shares with another supposed clubhouse leader who left the Twins this past offseason -- Torii Hunter.

Hunter, of course, openly complained that other Twins players couldn't play at less than 100 percent, once threw a punch at Justin Morneau, and frequently had quotes in the papers with other veiled shots at his teammates. This type of "leadership" is ineffective and does more harm than good, creating hostility amongst players in the clubhouse.

Even without a clearly defined "team leader," the Twins are still succeeding right now, which is a strong indication that the whole concept is probably overrated. But the team does have quiet leaders -- Morneau, Joe Mauer and Joe Nathan most likely chief among them due to their seniority with the club. And I have not once seen any of these guys come out and complain about their teammates. Instead, they lead by example and if they're airing any grievances, it's happening in the clubhouse and not in the press.

The disruptive brand of leadership offered by players like Hunter and Silva is not missed.

* Considering how many of the Twins' losses this year have come as the result of a bullpen meltdown, what do you think the team's record would be had Pat Neshek remained healthy and effective? This is just a random question and I don't know the answer, but I'd be interested to hear some guesses.

* Adam Everett's recent mini hot streak would seem to have come about with rather ironic timing, seeing as how I spent Monday's post railing on the shortstop and concluding that he should be released post-haste. Prior to sitting out Wednesday's game against the Yankees, Everett had started five consecutive games, going 6-for-17 with a home run and six RBI during that span. Now I'm reading about how Everett is "quickly grabbing hold of the club's starting shortstop job."

The offensive boost has been nice and his run-producing contributions have certainly helped the Twins over the past week, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes and I have little doubt that soon enough Everett will revert to the incapable hitter he has been for the entirety of his career. Moreover, I'm not seeing enough of improvement in Everett's defense to make me believe he has any value at shortstop. While Everett has not committed an error since the one that cost the Twins a victory in their series finale against the Royals on Sunday, he continues to look unimpressive defensively at short. His arm continues to be erratic and even when his throws are on-target, they seem to move in slow motion.

Everett is still displaying solid range and getting to a lot of balls, but that doesn't do a whole lot of good when his arm is so weak. While chatting with Aaron Gleeman earlier in the week, he suggested that if Ron Gardenhire must continue writing Everett into the lineup, perhaps he should consider a position switch to second base. There, Everett's range would still be an advantage, and his poor arm would not be as much of a liability. Everett has played shortstop exclusively throughout his career outside of a late-game appearance at second a couple weeks ago, but there might be some merit to the idea of moving him closer to first base.

Of course, I still think the Twins are better off simply replacing him at short with Brendan Harris (829 OPS since July 1).

* After a horrendous start to the season, Jason Kubel went on a tear in May and June to bring his numbers back to respectability. Now, he has seemingly leveled off. At the end of June, Kubel was hitting .263/.324/.466; he currently sports a nearly identical line of .263/.327/.462. During that span, his batting average has never been higher than .267 and has never been lower than .259. His OPS has fluctuated within a 20-point window. All things considered, it seems fair to say that this is the true Jason Kubel.

If that's the case, there's no reason to be dissatisfied. Those are above-average numbers relative to the average AL designated hitter, and he stands as the third-best hitter on the team. Yet, I still believe that Kubel is capable of more. He might finish the season with numbers similar to the ones he has now, but I don't think he's done growing as a hitter. We'll see.

Return of the Power?

There was something unusual about the Twins victory last night. In the course of beating the Chicago White Sox 10-6 and taking the series 3-1, the Twins got six of their runs on two big two-out hits. Both Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel had huge, three-run homers, with Kubel's giving the Twins the lead for good in the seventh inning when he took Octavio Dotel deep.

Considering that they came into the game 29th in the majors (above the lowly Giants, who have only 61) with just 73 homers (though that number shot up to 28th after this game), getting two huge blasts like that not only feels like an aberration, but is awfully surprising. Of course, it is not surprising in that Morneau and Kubel hit them, considering they are the only two legitimate home-run threats in the lineup, only that the Twins won the way that they did. This should only give fans appreciation for the importance of not only Morneau's bat in the lineup, but Kubel's power, which can be key to offense's success when considering the void in the lineup of any other power source.

Of course, just discussing the power surge and the general offensive display last night would miss some other important storylines:

* Once again, despite some struggles, Scott Baker showed why he is likely the ace of the this staff last night and more than likely has the best stuff of any starting pitcher on the team. Baker went six innings, gave up five hits, four runs, and three walks, but he also struck out eight batters, showing good life on his fastball and an excellent slider that was getting many Chicago hitters to swing and miss. After last night's start, Baker has an excellent and very impressive 7.85 K/9 rate to go along with a outstanding 89/21 K/BB ratio.

* The Twins, not surprisingly, did not make any moves of the deadline. This may upset some fans, and rightfully so, as they did not pursue any of their targets, be it Brian Roberts or Adrian Beltre, with any lasting speed. However, the Twins appear on the verge of finally making one big and key internal move: La Velle E. Neal III reports that the Twins will likely eat the rest of Livan Hernandez's contract and designate him for assignment very soon so that they can make room in the rotation for Francisco Liriano.

Now to some, this might feel as good as a trade, but the fact remains that the Twins should have made this move earlier to say give them a chance for a sweep against their divisional foe this week and be in command of first place, instead of back a half game. Nonetheless, its a very important move to make and is just as exciting as a good trade. There is no way yet to know how effective Liriano is going to be once the move is actually made, but there is no doubt that he will not put up stats that would put him on pace to give up the most hits in a season in three decades.

* On a final note, the White Sox did make a big move of their own yesterday by competing in the headlines with the Manny Ramirez trade when they dealt two marginal players for Ken Griffey, Jr. Some fans may be worried that getting such a prestigious name as Griffey means that the White Sox will now run off with the division, but that is simply not the case. Griffey sports a .245/.355/.432 line this year with the advantage of playing in the Great American Ballpark. Yes, a .787 OPS is nothing terrible, but it's nothing to get excited about either. Griffey, with his diminishing skill-set, has gained patience recently, but with it, he's lost a lot in average and power. Keep in mind that Nick Swisher is batting .230/.348/.404 and he also has 15 home runs this year.

Yes, Griffey could get hot and do a lot for the White Sox, but he's also 38 years old and might be asked to play center field when he is already a sub-par fielder in right. If he was being brought over to DH, maybe it would be different, but the White Sox already have a good DH in Jim Thome. This deal might sound like a lot to think about, but the White Sox probably didn't improve that much and now they just have a lot of invitees to an ongoing game of musical chairs, especially if they think they are going sit a guy with a $60 million contract in Paul Konerko.

Jason Kubel: Free at Last?

I've got to give credit where it's due. I've been a vocal member of the "Free Jason Kubel" movement that has swept over the blogosphere. I was bothered at times by Ron Gardenhire's erratic usage of Jason Kubel last year, I was annoyed when Gardenhire told the Star Tribune this spring that Kubel would be in the lineup "every once in a while," and I was downright flabbergasted when the manager benched Kubel in favor of Craig Monroe against a right-hander on Opening Day solely because Monroe had outhit Kubel over a meaningless slate of spring training games.

Yet, as of late, Gardenhire finally has shown signs of embracing the talented young hitter. Kubel has been in the lineup in nearly every game since being held out of the season opener. He even batted third in one game, and started in right field last night. At the same time, Gardenhire has seemed diametrically opposed to playing Monroe, despite being given ample opportunity to do so with Michael Cuddyer hitting the disabled list. Monroe's start last night was just his second in the last 10 days, and he has routinely been benched in favor of Denard Span since Cuddyer's injury. Gardenhire has shown a frustrating tendency to stick with under-performing, overpaid veterans for far too long in the past (Rondell White anyone?), so it's refreshing to see Monroe being held out of the lineup with the .133/.278/.267 hitting line he carried into last night's game.

Meanwhile, after frequently downplaying Kubel's importance to the team when talking to reporters in the past, Gardy is now making much more encouraging statements to the press. Things like this:

"I've said all along, 'This guy [Kubel] is one of our best hitters,' " Gardenhire said. "It was just a matter of time. Last year, I thought the last month and a half we were starting to see signs of his legs underneath him better and him really being able to get after balls. In Spring Training, we saw him put a lot of good swings out there. I think you are seeing a guy that is coming along and his legs are really underneath him right now."

And this:

"We've got role players, we've got platoon situations, but we've got guys that you want to see get at-bats," Gardenhire said. "And I want to see Kubel. He was swinging good at the end [of last season]; we want to see him swing now."

Kubel has responded to the love from his manager, and entered last night's game tied with Justin Morneau for the team lead in home runs (three) and RBI (11), while hitting .286/.295/.524. After going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts last night, Kubel has fanned 12 times while drawing just one walk in 48 plate appearances, which is concerning, but he's still scalding the ball consistently when he makes contact. Hopefully, the K/BB ratio will start to even out in time.

The Twins finished up a two-game series against the Tigers last night that was just brutal to watch, with the bullpen blowing leads late in both games. Yet, if we search deep we can still find some positives in this Twins team, and Kubel's establishment as a true regular is something that should not go ignored. Considering Gardenhire's history, there is still a fear in the back of my mind that Kubel could find himself back in playing time limbo with a bad two-week stretch, but for the time being, I'm happy to remove the "Free Jason Kubel!" plea from the sidebar.

However, I'm leaving the "Needs more Kubel" graphic there, because well, it just makes me smile. And smiles are something you need when the big bad Tigers tag your bullpen for nine runs in 3 1/3 innings in a two-game sweep. Eep.

(P.S. - Yes, I realize the sidebar graphic in question is obscenely small right now. I'll get around to fixing it later.)