An Easy Option

This offseason will carry plenty of difficult decisions for the Twins' front office, but they got one of the easier ones out of the way yesterday when they declined Joe Nathan's $12.5 million option for 2012.

The move officially consummates a contract that the closer originally inked prior to the 2008 campaign. Over the life of his four-year pact, Nathan pitched 181 innings with a 2.49 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 206-to-54 strikeout-to-walk ratio. When healthy, he remained one of the league's best relievers, but he also missed the entire 2010 season due to injury and went through some rough patches while working his way back in 2011.

It's a cautionary tale for handing expensive multi-year contracts to aging relievers -- one the Twins will have to bear in mind as they contemplate their next step with Nathan. After collecting his $2 million buyout, he'll hit the free agent market and he should have no trouble finding suitors. Despite a 4.84 ERA this past season, Nathan finished strong and posted encouraging peripherals (8.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP).

Losing their longtime closer would be a tough blow for the Twins, who desperately need effective arms at the back end of their bullpen. Yet, there are two major factors working in their favor. One is Nathan's age; he'll turn 37 next month, which, in combination with his surgically repaired arm, could be seen as a red flag. Another is that the free agent market for relievers is considerably deep.

Joining Nathan in the free agent pool are names like Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, Francisco Cordero, and Frank Francisco. All are hard-throwing righties with a history of closing, and all are younger than Nathan.

With this depth of competition, the Twins' all-time saves leader will probably have to settle for a two-year deal where the total money is close to the $12.5 million he would have made with his option.

So it's easy to see why the Twins bought out Nathan's 2012 season, even though it cost them a couple million. It's also easy to see why they should make a hard push to bring him back anyway.

Contemplating Cuddyer and Kubel

Only two American League teams (Oakland and Seattle) have hit fewer home runs than Minnesota this year. After hitting just one homer at Target Field over the weekend while the visiting White Sox clubbed seven, the Twins are on pace to barely edge the 100-homer mark as a team. If they fail to reach triple digits, it would be the first time since 1980 that it's happened for this franchise.

Yes, the Twins are amidst a rather distressing power drought. And unfortunately, the outlook going forward is none too bright.

Jim Thome is not likely to return next year. There's a good chance Delmon Young will be non-tendered or traded. And no player in the Twins' farm system can safely be projected as more than a 15-HR guy in the majors.

These factors add urgency to the decisions involving Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel in the upcoming offseason. Both slugging outfielders are eligible to become free agents, and losing the two of them could prove devastating for an organization that is already desperately short on pop.

Unsurprisingly, the Twins have made it clear that they intend to pursue Cuddyer, with reports suggesting that they've already uncharacteristically tried to open negotiations midseason by offering a two-year, $16 million extension.

Cuddyer and his agent smartly turned down that offer, knowing his outstanding season amidst the Twins' meltdown in 2011 has raised his price tag. Assuming he finishes strong, I'd be surprised if Cuddyer were asking for any less than three years and $30 million once he hits the open market. He can probably get it somewhere. Hopefully not here.

I appreciate all the things Cuddyer brings as a member of this team, but the Twins are already in bad shape with some bulky contracts and handing an expensive three-year deal to a 33-year-old who's never put together consecutive good seasons is bad business.

If it comes down to a choice between the two, the Twins would probably be better off re-upping Kubel. While he, like Cuddyer, has looked great at the plate this season, Kubel has missed significant time due to injury so his stock won't be quite as high.

Prior to this year, Kubel had played at least 140 games in three straight seasons, averaging 23 home runs and 91 RBI. While his platoon splits have been a chronic issue (one that's showing signs of improvement), Kubel's bat has been at least as good as Cuddyer's and he's also three years younger.

If the Twins want to loosen the purse strings and re-sign both outfielders, so be it. But keeping Cuddyer with a hefty contract at the expense of Kubel would be a mistake. In fact, outbidding any other motivated GM for Cuddyer's services will likely backfire in the long run, worsening an already murky financial situation.

Unless Cuddy is willing to accept a hometown discount, the Twins ought to offer arbitration, let the Type A free agent walk and use the draft picks next year to replenish a depleted minor-league system.

One Year for Liriano is a Mistake

It's probably no secret to people who read this blog often, but I'm a huge Francisco Liriano fan. While I feel nervous about what to expect from a number of Twins players this season, I feel supremely confident that Liriano will be one of the top pitchers in the American League.

He's 27, he's four years removed from surgery and -- for the first time in his Twins career -- he's had a full offseason to rest up. No rehab from injury, no winter ball. Liriano's arm should be as strong as ever this year, and that should help him last deeper into games and avoid wearing down at the end of the season again.

In 2010, Liriano was one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, but his ERA and win/loss record stayed in check -- in part due to an inflated batting average on balls in play. His unremarkable core numbers have made him something of a well-kept secret, but that secret is likely to get out this year if his BABIP normalizes and he keeps racking up the strikeouts and ground balls.

If that's the case, the Twins may be missing their last chance to lock up the left-hander at a reasonable rate by opting for a one-year deal to avoid arbitration. I've been calling a long-term contract for Liriano the team's top priority since last August, but it seems that -- like with so many things this offseason -- the Twins brass sees it differently than me.

While chatting with fellow TwinsCentric blogger Seth Stohs at Twins Fest, Bill Smith acknowledged the downside of going year-to-year with Liriano: "We definitely recognize the risk in doing that and if he has another big year, it will cost us some money."

I don't presume the Twins want to cost themselves money, so the above quote indicates to me that they're not fully confident in the durability of Liriano's arm. I have a hard time understanding why, given that he's averaged 175 innings in his three seasons since Tommy John surgery and was hitting 96 mph in the playoffs last year, but I guess they have more insight on the subject than me. It's fair to say his arm is fragile; he had a lengthy injury history prior to his torn ligament (part of the reason the Twins got him so cheaply) and does go through periodic dead arm spells.

But those facts are all the more reason for Liriano to accept a multiyear deal right now and guarantee himself the first big payday of his career. Hammering out a contract with Liriano two years from free agency and coming off a good-not-great season gives the Twins an opportunity to negotiate from a position of leverage, but for whatever reason they seem perfectly willing to pass on it. I suppose I shouldn't get too worked up about it -- it's not my money -- but I wonder about the implications if Liriano goes on to enjoy a healthy and spectacular 2011 campaign, as I expect he will.

With core numbers that match his ace-caliber peripherals, he would become a much hotter commodity, viewed around the league in the same category as David Price, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee. And, with only one more year standing between Liriano and free agency, leverage will have shifted largely to his side. At that point, the Twins will face the difficult decision of meeting the potentially exorbitant demands of Liriano's agent, or risking the loss of another prime-aged lefty ace.

Of course, if Liriano doesn't have a great year, these points are mostly moot and it probably ends up being a fine decision. I admit that my opposition to this course of action is completely vested in the notion that he'll take another step forward this year, which could easily be wrong. Maybe he'll get hurt. But injuries are almost impossible to predict for pitchers. When the Twins handed totally unnecessary long-term contracts to Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, both of those pitchers seemed to be in fine health, but neither has had a fully healthy or productive season since inking the dotted line. Given an opportunity to gain similar cost certainty with Liriano, a far more irreplaceable asset, it appears they'll opt to let things play out year-by-year, gambling that the southpaw won't continue his ascent and price himself right out of their budget.

Between Baker, Blackburn, Joe Mauer, Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer, the Twins have handed out a lot of bloated contract extensions to their own players in recent years that haven't turned out to be particularly team-friendly (at least so far). Liriano's situation struck me as a chance to buck that trend. Whiffing on the opportunity to reach a long-term pact with the only ace-caliber pitcher in the entire organization on somewhat team-friendly terms while his value is superficially low hits me as another misguided decision in an offseason that has featured far too many.

The Mauer Factor

As most people reading this are probably aware, I've been fairly critical of the Twins this offseason. They have parted with some valuable players, taken dangerous gambles on Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka, overpaid Matt Capps by several million dollars, and invested a great deal of hope in two aging veteran free agents after outstanding seasons they'd be hard-pressed to recreate.

But, I will confess that I'm probably being a bit too hard on the Twins this winter. I've been unimpressed by their frugal approach over the past few months, but the truth is that they actually made the biggest blockbuster move of any team this offseason. They just did it a year early.

Cliff Lee's $120 million contract with the Phillies wouldn't have been the largest handed to a free agent this offseason had the Twins not swooped in early with an eight-year, $184 million mega deal for Joe Mauer. We might not have fully appreciated it at the time because it took place in spring training, wedged between a very active offseason and the opening of a new stadium, but the Mauer deal was monumental.

Many fans are already speaking about the celebrated extension begrudgingly, and it's true that Mauer's $11.5 million raise going into 2011 (equivalent to the price of an elite free agent) is a big reason they've been restricted in their offseason activities. Maneuvering around that $23 million makes for some tough decisions, and while I don't necessarily agree with the way the front office has addressed those decisions I can at least understand them a little better.

While fans in Philadelphia are absolutely ecstatic about their prized offseason acquisition (if I hear "FOUR ACES!" one more time I'm going to lose it), Twins fans seem almost ambivalent about Mauer. That's because his signing took place a year ago, and his 2010 campaign was far less extraordinary than the one before it.

But I'm thinking positive here. The Twins have not done a lot to help themselves this offseason, and on paper they look to me like the division's third-best team right now, but Mauer is the biggest reason I would never dream of counting them out in the AL Central.

It's true that Mauer didn't perform like a $23 million player last season, but we shouldn't let his drop from superhuman to merely great make us forget that a year ago he was widely viewed as one of the two best position players in all of baseball. He endured one injury after another last summer and his numbers undoubtedly suffered because of it, but he got his knee fixed up with a minor surgery at the end of the season and enters 2011 as one of the team's few key players without major health concerns.

If he can stay healthy and produce at the level he did in 2009, Mauer can effectively carry the club. That 2009 team that surrounded him was flush with flaws; several holes in the lineup and no starting pitcher with an ERA under four. It was the gargantuan five-month season from Mauer that tipped the scales in a hard-fought struggle with Detroit for the division title, and that performance rightfully earned the catcher MVP honors.

As I see it, this 2011 Twins team is a distilled version of the one before it, with several question marks and little in the way of depth to prevent disaster should dominos fall the wrong way. I've made no secret of the fact that I'm a bit down on them, but I'll never count the Twins out.

Not as long as they have the Mauer factor.

Bill Smith's Greatest Weakness

Overall, Bill Smith's body of work as Twins general manager has been impressive. He took over at an extremely unenviable time, facing the task of letting two of the most popular and talented players in franchise history -- Torii Hunter and Johan Santana -- depart while keeping the team competitive. While that first winter was not a particularly strong one, Smith's Twins did surprisingly come within a game of the playoffs in 2008 and they won the division in each of the next two years.

The Twins front office under Smith has shown clear competency in a number of areas. These include targeting quality players in trades when their value is at a low point (JJ Hardy and Carl Pavano come to mind), acquiring valuable pieces through free agency (an area where Terry Ryan consistently struggled), drafting and being aggressive on the international market.

One area where Smith and Co. have not been particularly adept, however, is extending the contracts of their own players.

I'm not talking about the big fish. The heaping salaries of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan are hard to stomach now, obviously, but no one could have predicted they'd suffer the type of major injuries they did. One can question the wisdom of paying Joe Mauer $23 million annually for the better part of the next decade, but it was a fair contract and the Twins would have been ravaged if they hadn't locked the MVP up after '09.

What I take issue with is some of the extensions Smith has given lesser players on the roster, and specifically the timing of those extensions. While he's shown an ability to bring in external players at bargain prices because their value is down, he tends to negotiate contracts with his own players when their value is superficially high.

Denard Span and Nick Blackburn, both of whom signed long-term deals buying out all their arbitration years prior to this season, are good examples. Each of these players performed in '08 and '09 at a level that far exceeded their minor-league track record. Blackburn's numbers seemed particularly difficult to sustain, as it doesn't take a hardcore sabermetrician to understand that when you constantly pitch to contact and don't draw ground balls at a particularly dazzling rate, you're liable to get blown up.

Both those players took major steps backwards this season, which shouldn't have come as an enormous surprise based on their histories and tendencies. Yet, the team is now locked into paying them both over the next 3-4 years at a rate based on their performance in the first two seasons. If Span and Blackburn continue to decline, they'll keep being paid as strong producers due to contract extensions that were totally unnecessary given that both were under team control for several more years.

Nick Punto represents another example of badly timed extension. If the team wanted to keep him around (which you'd have to guess they always did), they could have handed him a low-money extension after his historically dismal 2007 season. Instead, they waited until he put together a solid effort in '08 -- his last year under contract -- and had to pay him $8.5 million over two years to keep him from exiting via free agency. As a result they've had to pay him $4 million in each of the past two years to put up a sub-.630 OPS while characteristically battling injuries.

And then there's the Michael Cuddyer contract. This stands out to me as Smith's most egregious and baffling move yet. It's not so much the contract itself -- a three-year deal worth $24 million -- I have a problem with, although one could certainly question handing him such a sizable deal after a very pedestrian 2007 campaign. It's the stipulation regarding the club option. It had to be exercised five days after the end of the 2009 World Series, meaning the Twins had to decide whether or not they would pay Cuddyer $10.5 million in 2011 before seeing what he did in 2010.

I can't recall ever seeing a contract structured like this before. I can see why Cuddyer's agent would push for it, knowing that Cuddyer would be moving past the age of 30 in 2009 and understanding that the team might be more likely to activate the lucrative option after that season than after his 2010 season where age could start taking a greater toll on the right fielder's performance. What I don't understand is why in the world Smith would agree to it.

Was it really a deal-breaker? Was Cuddyer going to turn down an extension that paid him an average of $8 million annually after a relatively mediocre season because the club option was to be exercised after the final guaranteed year of the deal, as with any normal contract? By structuring the deal like this, Smith opened himself to the possibility that Cuddyer would have a great '09 campaign, making the option look like a no-brainer and prompting the team to activate it, then follow up with a poor 2010 season that cast doubt on his future productivity. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened and now the Twins are forced to pay Cuddyer's hefty salary next year when under normal circumstances they'd have the option of letting him walk or negotiating a new deal.

I like most of what Smith has done, but the burdensome long-term contracts of players like Span, Blackburn, Punto and Cuddyer stand as glaring examples of a pervasive weakness. This winter, he'll once again have the opportunity to extend the contracts of several players. I mentioned Francisco Liriano as a top priority on Wednesday, and players like JJ Hardy, Alexi Casilla and Kevin Slowey are also candidates for extensions.

I can only hope that the front office shows better judgment in handing out such extensions this winter, because unlike the Yankees, this team simply isn't equipped financially to deal with a multitude of poorly concieved contracts.

Ace in the Hole

I've touched briefly on the subject of a contract extension for Francisco Liriano a couple times, both in a guest post on Rob Neyer's SweetSpot blog at ESPN.com back in early August and in my offseason blueprint which appears in the GM Handbook.

Today, I'd like to delve a little deeper into the matter, as I feel that it is arguably the team's top priority this winter.

One of the main talking points among fans frustrated by the Twins' early playoff exit is the need for a legitimate ace to head the rotation. Fans watched the Twins' starters helplessly bow to the Yankees' potent hitters during the ALDS while Cliff Lee has shredded every lineup he's faced in helping carry the Rangers to a World Series berth, so that reaction is understandable.

However, many people seem to have a vague and mystical conception of what an "ace" is. It's not Liriano, they say, because while he was one of the league's most dominant pitchers this year (fifth in the American League in strikeouts, sixth in ground ball rate, best home run rate in baseball), he wasn't consistent enough, didn't pitch deep enough into games, and -- most importantly -- didn't come through in the postseason.

The problem is that you can count on one hand the number of pitchers who would satisfy that definition of an ace. There's only one Cliff Lee, folks. And while you can add Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and perhaps a few others to the list of consistently dominant starting pitchers who have outstanding postseason track records, these guys don't grow on trees. They are extremely tough to come by.

Take a look at a couple top Cy Young contenders in the AL and how they performed in the playoffs this year. CC Sabathia was not at all sharp, posting a 5.63 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over three starts. David Price went 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA for the Rays. Liriano's first five innings against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS were probably better than any stretch of pitching by either of those two this October.

Things came unraveled for Liriano in the sixth inning against a good offense, but that happens often to pitchers in the playoffs, even the ones that can legitimately be labeled aces. And while Liriano's inconsistency and inefficiency on the mound are marks against him, let's not forget that this was his first full, strong season since Tommy John surgery and he's still only 27 years old (younger than any pitcher I've mentioned in this article, save for Price and Lincecum). It's hardly fair to assume we've seen the best of him.

Aces are exceedingly difficult to come across and Liriano gives the Twins their best shot at having one over the next several years, so it's imperative that they keep him under team control. He's entering his second year of arbitration this offseason, so the Twins have the option of either continuing to go year-to-year with him or offering a multi-year deal.

In the Handbook, I suggest that the Twins sign Liriano to a three-year, $21 million deal. They pay him $4 million in 2011 (a bit less than he'd probably get through arbitration), $7 million in 2012 and buy out his first season of free agency in 2013 for $10 million. For a pitcher capable of the Liriano's dominance, that's a bargain, and considering his history of arm troubles I have to think that the southpaw would jump at the financial security. The downside, for him, is that if he starts to flourish his big payday comes one year later (when he'll still only be 31 -- younger than Lee is now) and the upside is that he's guaranteed $21 million no matter what happens to his arm.

It seems clear that Liriano wore down at the end of the year. Halfway through September, he was 14-7 with a 3.28 ERA, positioning himself as a sneaky Cy Young contender, but over his final four starts (including the playoffs) he went 0-3 with a 7.58 ERA. Given that Liriano racked up such a large workload between winter ball, spring training, the regular season and the playoffs, that shouldn't come as a huge surprise. But it doesn't really affect his long-term outlook, and in fact, the experience of logging all those innings may ultimately be beneficial for his arm strength. Now that he can finally spend an offseason resting rather than rehabbing or pitching in winter ball, I suspect he'll come out better than ever next season.

If that happens, he'll be a lot more expensive a year from now. Bill Smith would be wise to show foresight and buy low on the left-hander. The reward far outweighs the risk.

Cut the Capps

When the Twins traded for Matt Capps at the trade deadline, I didn't hate the move.

I didn't love it, but since the reaction to the swap among Twins fans was overwhelmingly negative, I spent a lot of time defending it. Despite his success in the first half, the Twins saw something in Jon Rauch that led them to believe he'd soon become a liability in the closer role (his subsequent slump suggested they were right), so they wanted a proven commodity. Sure, the Twins overvalued Capps' standing as an established closer and gave up a better prospect than they maybe should have, but I accepted the move for three principal reasons: 1) I don't think they could have gotten a much better player for Ramos; 2) in my mind, the probability that the team will heavily regret dealing Ramos when they did is quite low; and 3) I liked the statement that the move made.

It was that last one that I felt most strongly about. We're so used to seeing the Twins play it conservative at the deadline, protecting their future assets at the expense of bettering their present chances. Now, they were dealing one of their top prospects and taking on significant salary with the hopes of ensuring that a bullpen derailment would not impede their budding momentum. Very often has a prospect panned out to be less than we'd hoped; very often, also, have we looked back at the end of a season and said, "Maybe that one extra piece at the deadline would have made the difference."

So the Twins made their bold move. But they did so for another reason, one that they were perfectly transparent about the time, but that I didn't spend much time thinking about then.

"Having him for 2011 was critical," [Bill] Smith said. "We would not have had interest in having him for just two months."

As you'll find when reading through your copy of the Offseason GM Handbook, the bullpen becomes a quagmire of tricky decisions for the Twins' front office this winter. I didn't need the headache while focusing on the Twins' 2010 season, so I hadn't spent much time thinking about it. Now that I've turned my gaze to the offseason and started breaking down the numbers, I've reached one inescapable conclusion:

The Twins would be insane to bring back Matt Capps.

He's under team control for 2011 because he's entering his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. He was non-tendered by the Pirates following a crummy 2009 campaign (5.80 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .324 opponents batting average, just 27 saves in 32 chances), and he earned only a modest $1.2 million raise on his $2.3 million '09 salary when the Nationals signed him this season because of it.

This year, however, Capps put up some of the finest numbers of his career, and scored big in areas that arbitrators put a lot of weight into. Specifically, those areas are ERA (2.47) and saves (42, fifth-best in MLB). While I certainly don't think he's as bad a pitcher as many opponents of his acquisition make him out to be, Capps is at best merely a good reliever and those numbers unquestionably overstate his value.

Unfortunately, that's the type of lens through which arbitration judges are likely to view Capps. The market has been established. For instance, the Giants have Brian Wilson locked up for $8.5 million in 2012, which would be his last year of arbitration, and that contract was signed before he notched an MLB-leading 48 saves this year. Jonathan Papelbon just earned over $9 million in his second year of arbitration. Looking at these numbers, it's not hard to imagine Capps at least doubling his $3.5 million salary in 2011.

Meanwhile, relievers of similar quality to Capps who don't carry the closer label tend to make only a couple million per year. And regardless of how you weigh the value of having an established guy in the closer spot, there's a good chance the Twins won't be using him in that role with Joe Nathan returning.

In the best case scenario, they'd be paying Capps upper-echelon closer money (which they're already paying Nathan, to a higher degree) to be a solid setup man. If you're going to spend that kind of money on a guy who'd fill a setup role and serve as an insurance policy for Nathan, you're much wiser using it to bring back Brian Fuentes who figures to be only slightly more expensive if at all. He's a better pitcher and more useful if Nathan can close. Or you can save a few million and take your pick from the deep pool of strong relievers hitting the market this winter.

I have spent enough energy defending Capps. He served his duty very effectively after being acquired and was a fine -- if ultimately meaningless -- addition to the Twins this season. If he's back next year at $7 million, though, his acquisition will ultimately do more harm than good.

Could Pavano Be a Bargain?

During the offseason, the Twins committed to retaining free agent Carl Pavano by offering him arbitration, which he accepted. Pavano took the offer because he knew he'd stand to make around $7 million and that was probably more than any free agent contract would pay him given that he'd finished the prior season with an ERA north of five.

Some Twins fans reacted with appall at the price tag for Pavano. At $7 million, he'd be making more than twice as much as anyone else in the rotation, and one would have a hard time arguing that he was the team's best starter. While he'd pitched some big games for the Twins down the stretch after being acquired from the Indians in August, there was no denying that his overall results on the season were ugly. He led the league in earned runs allowed and opposing hitters ran up a .294 average and .466 slugging percentage against him.

Now he was going to become the Twins' highest-paid starter, by a long shot. It's not the first time the right-hander has found himself locking into a controversial contract.

Following a 2004 season in which he won 18 games for the Marlins, Pavano signed a monster deal with the Yankees, one that would pay him $40 million over four seasons. The contract was an unmitigated disaster for the Yankees, as Pavano battled injuries throughout his time in New York and totaled just 145 (below-average) innings over the life of the four-year deal. His name became a running joke in New York.

However, Pavano has been remarkably durable since signing his one-year make-good deal with the Indians prior to last season. He made 33 starts and piled up 200 innings last year, and he's been healthy and strong so far this year. What's even better are his results: Pavano is 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He sports the league's best strikeout-to-walk ratio and has issued fewer walks than any other qualifying starter in baseball. Given that he's putting up almost the same numbers so far that he did in that 2004 season, one which made the Yankees deem him worthy of a mega-deal, $7 million could end up looking like a bargain. This isn't necessarily just a lucky surprise.

The smart observer did not look at Pavano's 2009 season and see a bad pitcher with a 5.10 ERA who was getting obscenely overpaid through arbitration. They saw a veteran pitcher who was plagued by bad luck but who did well with everything he had direct control over. He ranked fourth in the AL in strikeout-to-walk ratio, joining elite hurlers Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander and A.J. Burnett in the top five. He posted his highest strikeout rate since 2001, when he was 25. He showed increased velocity across the board. He pitched more innings in that one season than he did over his entire four-year stay in New York.

Few people seem to realize this, but Pavano is about six months less far removed from undergoing Tommy John surgery than Francisco Liriano. Given that Liriano seems to be rounding fully into shape about three years after the surgery, it wouldn't be terribly surprising if Pavano can continue to pitch the way he did during his prime this season. Many are simply assuming Pavano's hot start is a mirage, and it's true that he'll always be susceptible to the occasional dud performance, but his supporting peripherals are encouraging and in my mind there's no reason the 34-year-old can't keep up at this pace.

If he does, that $7 million will look like money well spent.

Morneau is Cleaning Up

I'll be honest, I was a little worried about Justin Morneau this spring. He'd struggled through the latter portion of the 2009 campaign due to a back injury which ultimately forced him to watch the final weeks of the regular season (and the Twins' playoff series against the Yankees) from the bench. Rather than medical treatment for his fractured vertebrae, Morneau was told by doctors to simply rest and let the ailment heal on its own. We've seen this approach fail plenty of times in the past. Morneau also underwent wrist surgery during the offseason.

Spring training did little to alleviate my fears that Morneau may experience some after effects from the injuries that ruined the end of his 2009 season. He hit just .160 in Grapefruit League play, striking out 10 times while drawing only three walks. Morneau's worst season as a big-leaguer up to this point had come in 2005, after an offseason filled with various health issues, and there was legitimate reason to worry that he might be headed for a down year in 2010.

Thus far, Morneau has thoroughly squashed any such concerns. He left last night's game with a strained back, which is somewhat alarming, but the Twins insisted that his removal was strictly precautionary and that he will be fine. Hopefully that's true, because up to this point he's been an absolute monster amidst the Twins' lineup, batting .352 through his first 20 games while getting on base literally almost half the time and providing solid power with four homers, five doubles and a triple. The fast start is nothing new for Morneau, who is a career .298/.375/.540 hitter in the month of April, but he's doing things this year that we've never seen from him before.

Most intriguing has been Morneau's extremely impressive plate discipline; early in his MLB career, he would generally strike out about twice as often as he walked, which is fairly normal for a power hitter of his ilk. In recent years, he's seen that ratio draw closer to even, but in this young season he has already drawn 20 walks while fanning only 14 times (three of those coming last night). That's the type of K/BB ratio that would make even Joe Mauer jealous. Morneau has definitely been more discerning at the plate, as he is swinging at only 40.7 percent of total pitches offered, down significantly from his career rate of 49.7 percent. That includes a chase rate (swings at pitches out of the zone) of 25.4 percent, down from 29.4 for his career. It seems that Morneau is clearly benefiting from the overall improvement in the Twins' lineup -- pitchers are less inclined to throw him strikes and he's taking advantage by laying off more pitches. If this trend can continue it will be a huge boost for the offense, since Morneau (and others) constantly being on base is a big part of the reason the Twins have scored so many runs despite struggling to come up with big hits in scoring opportunities.

The early success of the Twins' first baseman looms especially large in light of the contract Ryan Howard signed with the Phillies on Monday. The five-year, $125 million extension will pay Howard an annual salary even higher than Mauer, and easily shatters the six-year, $80 million deal that Morneau signed prior to the 2008 season.

There's no denying Howard's amazing productivity when it comes to home runs and RBI, but it seems that those two categories are the sole basis for his towering contract. Going back to 2006, when both he and Morneau were named MVP of their respective leagues, Howard has amassed a hitting line of .277/.376/.584 while Morneau has turned in a .294/.369/.520. Now, Howard does have a significant edge in runs batted in (588 to 485) and homers (201 to 122) during that span, but the former is partially explainable by the fact that Howard has generally been playing in better lineups and given more opportunities to drive in runs, while the latter is partially offset by Howard's being far more prone to strike out (he's fanned 780 times compared to just 366 for Morneau). Sure, Howard's homers are nice, but do they make him worth almost $12 million more per season than Morneau?

Aside from their numbers not being all that different, there are other factors that make Morneau look like an enormous bargain in light of Howard's new deal. Chief among them is the age difference between the two players. When Morneau signed his six-year extension with the Twins, he was just 26 years old and clearly amidst his prime. Howard is 30 -- a year and a half older than Morneau is even now, two years into his deal. When you account for the fact that Howard seems unlikely to age well given his body type and historical comparables, it's easy to see which team is going to be feeling better about their first baseman's current contract in a couple years.

Even if Morneau doesn't continue to get on base at a .500 clip.

Eight More Years

That sound you heard yesterday in the late afternoon? That was the sound of an entire state breathing out one huge sigh of relief.

Yankees fans can stop drooling with anticipation. Red Sox fans can stop formulating theoretical trade packages. Mets fans can let any glimmers of hope die and go back to wallowing in misery.

Joe Mauer is staying in Minnesota.

The Twins announced yesterday that they'd signed their 26-year-old homegrown MVP to an eight-year contract extension that will keep Mauer at Target Field through 2018. The catcher will make $23 million per season over the life of the $184 million deal, which includes a full no trade clause.

Jittery fans and bored newspaper columnists had been stirring up some anxiety over the past few weeks, but ultimately there was little reason to believe this deal would not get done. While premature announcements from a couple of prominent local sports personalities proved false, there Twins organization's confidence that this extension would eventually get hammered out was clear on almost every report on the subject. With a new stadium opening this year and fan interest at the highest point been it's been in recent memory, the Twins were not going to let Mauer get away.

With the contract officially signed, the Twins have locked up the reigning MVP throughout his prime years. Mauer is the best player in the American League and he's not even 27 yet, so the benefits of this deal figure to be huge over the next several years. Of course, there's room to question whether Mauer will still be worth $23 million at the age of 34 or 35. There's also room to question how drastic the impacts of dedicating such an enormous percentage of the team's total payroll to one player will be; the Twins are setting an all-time high in payroll this year at $96 million, and Mauer's $23 million would account for 24 percent of that.

But those are discussions for another day. While it's not without its downsides, this is a move that needed to be made. Mauer staying in Minnesota is good for baseball and certainly good for Minnesotans.

The final piece of offseason drama has offically been settled. Now, can we get this season started?

Finally, a quick word from today's sponsor...

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False Alarm, Very Real Hope

Citing a source close to the situation, WCCO's Mark Rosen reported yesterday that the Twins and Joe Mauer had come to agreement on a 10-year contract, with the financial terms undisclosed. The rumor hit the Internet and predictably spread like wildfire; the phrase "Twins & Joe Mauer" had become a trending topic on Twitter within minutes of the first report I saw. This, of course, led numerous other baseball reporters to check in with their own Twins-related sources, who unanimously declared that Rosen's report was not in fact accurate and no deal was officially in place.

Not surprising. The report seemed a little odd, mainly due to the length. I was told by some that I was stretching it when I predicted that the Twins would strike an eight-year deal with Mauer this winter. A 10-year contract would not only be unprecedented in Minnesota Twins history, it would be pretty close to unprecedented in baseball history. Only two players have ever signed deals of such an exorbitant length, and they're both currently on the Yankees' payroll. Considering his youth, his talent and his extraordinary list of accomplishments already, it would hardly be absurd for Mauer to join Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter as the only players to ever receive decade-long baseball contracts, but for the Twins to be the team handing out such a massive pact? Tough to imagine.

Nevertheless, yesterday proved a promising one for Twins fans. That's because even though multiple reporters shot down Rosen's report after checking in with their own team sources, the denials consistently came with caveats that a deal is close to being done, or that team officials are confident a deal would get done. The Twins have a massive PR department in place; if the organization was not completely confident this extension was going to get done -- and soon -- they would be trying harder to downplay expectations of fans. (Think back to Torii Hunter and Johan Santana.) I've seen no indication that they're trying to do this.

Even if a deal didn't become official yesterday, I find myself more confident that the Twins will announce an extension within the next few weeks and that Mauer's future here in Minnesota will be ensured.

Very Comfortable

Last week, John Bonnes sat down with Twins general manager Bill Smith for an interview about the upcoming offseason. The interview, which serves as an addendum for the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook (if you've already purchased a copy, you'll be receiving the interview transcript in full, and of course you'll also get the entire interview included if you buy a copy from this point forward), covered a variety of topics, but today I'm going to focus on a particular portion of the conversation that lasted only a few seconds but may have provided one of the most compelling takeaways.

The Twins have a number of issues to tackle this offseason, but one pretty clearly rises above all others, and that's sorting out the Joe Mauer situation. The likely AL MVP and franchise cornerstone has just one year remaining on his current deal, and could become unaffordable to the Twins if he's able to venture into free agency next winter. I wrote a lengthy essay covering this topic for the Handbook, and ultimately concluded -- as I'm sure most fans have -- that working out a contract extension with Mauer during this offseason is absolutely imperative and should rank as Smith's No. 1 priority.

It was a topic that needed to be broached in the TwinsCentric interview, but Smith has been extremely tight-lipped when the matter of Mauer's contract has come up over the past few months. Seemingly realizing this, Bonnes was very cautious in approaching the subject during the interview, opening his line of questioning by saying, "I'm not sure how much I really want to get into this, but I want to ask a little bit about the Mauer extension." Smith quickly interjected, stating that Bonnes "may want to get into it deeply, but I'm not going to."

And so, John rerouted. "Well, let me ask one question that's not really about the contract," he said. "If an extension doesn't get done by spring training, do you feel comfortable going into next year with Mauer as a walk-away free agent?"

"Well, he's a player signed through 2010," Smith retorted.

Bonnes pressed on. "But for instance, Santana was a player signed for the next year as well..."

Finally, Smith relented and answered the question. "If we think Joe Mauer wants to stay here long-term, yes, we feel very comfortable going into next year."

It could be that Smith responded in this manner only to avoid backing himself into any sort of corner. Still, "very comfortable"? I wrote extensively in my essay for the Handbook about the perils of entering next season without a new contract for Mauer. His impending free agency would serve as an extremely unwelcome distraction as the team tries to build positive public sentiment in Target Field's inaugural season. And, of course, if Mauer makes it to the end of the year without an extension, the New Yorks and Bostons of the world will be able to jump into the bidding, which could put the Twins in a highly precarious position.

So, if indeed the Twins feel that Mauer wants to stay here long-term, it's hard to imagine that they'd actually be comfortable entering next season without a new deal in place. Which brings us to the other question raised by Smith's comment: what if the Twins don't get the sense that Mauer wants to stay?

Being a rather timid St. Paul native with countless ties to this area, it seems highly unlikely that Mauer would be opposed to forging a long-term deal with the Twins. But I suppose it is possible that he has his sights set on the huge money and increased national exposure that would come along with a move to a larger market. Or perhaps he doesn't feel that the Twins will ever be willing to take the steps needed to win a championship. It was a combination of those factors that seemingly fueled Johan Santana's desire to move elsewhere.

If the Twins get the sense that Mauer would like to test the free agent market, one has to believe Smith would not be "very comfortable" at all entering the 2010 season saddled with the risk of losing his star catcher at the end of the year for only a pair of draft picks, and the general manager essentially admitted that fact by including that big old "if" in his answer.

My Offseason Blueprint

The following is featured in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, and you can check out that document in order to see how I came up with the payroll figures and to read more about some of the names listed. But I thought I'd post this here to rev up the conversation about potential moves for the Twins this offseason. Agree? Disagree? What would you do?

***

1) Let free agents Orlando Cabrera, Ron Mahay, Joe Crede and Mike Redmond walk.

2) Re-sign free agent Carl Pavano for two years, $12M.
This might be a conservative estimate for what Pavano could command after he proved himself healthy and relatively effective during the 2009 season, but he did settle for only $1.5M plus incentives this past season so a two-year deal averaging $6M might be palatable, especially since he seemed to enjoy playing with the Twins. He adds much-needed veteran depth to the rotation and is a strike-thrower in Rick Anderson’s mold.

3) Reach arbitration agreements with Boof Bonser ($900K), Matt Guerrier ($2.8M), Francisco Liriano ($2M), Pat Neshek ($750K), Carlos Gomez ($1.5M) and Brendan Harris ($1.1M).
These are the median salary agreements we’ve estimated. They might be a little conservative or aggressive in some cases, but for the most part this should give an idea of what to expect.

4) Non-tender Jesse Crain.
Crain recovered from some early struggles to come back strong late in the season, but he will be expensive in arbitration and is the odd man out in a suddenly crowded bullpen picture.

5) Trade Delmon Young for prospects.

Young’s big late-season offensive push may have upped his value, making this the perfect time to deal. I’m not convinced the power he flashed over the final weeks of the season is for real,
and the Twins need to settle on three outfielders so they don’t have the same playing time issues next year. See what you can get for Young and cut ties.

6) Trade pitchers Glen Perkins and David Bromberg to Brewers for shortstop J.J. Hardy.
Perkins had a rough year but maintains value as a young left-handed starter with major-league experience and a strong minor-league track record. Bromberg is one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects who finished the 2009 season in Single-A. It’s a steep price, but Hardy’s young and arbitration eligible so he won’t come cheap even coming off a down year.

7) Sign free agent second baseman Placido Polanco for two years, $9M.
Unlike shortstop, the free agent market for second basemen is deep this year so players won’t have a ridiculous amount of leverage. Polanco is 34 so he’d likely have to settle for a short-term commitment, and he’s a great contact hitter with a sterling defensive reputation who Ron Gardenhire would love to throw at second base and in the two-spot in the order.

8) Sign Mike Sweeney for one year, $1M.
Sweeney signed a minor-league deal with the Mariners last year where he enjoyed a solid season, and says he wants to return for another year. He seems like a good fit with the Twins, where he can take some DH at-bats against lefties, spell Justin Morneau at first on occasion and serve as a pinch-hitter.

9) Give Joe Mauer eight-year, $150M extension.
The same deal mentioned in my essay earlier in this book. The deal wipes away the 2009 season of Mauer’s current contract and starts anew. The annual salary is a shade under $20M, which is less than he’d be able to get in free agency, but the hope is that the security and comfort provided by the length of the deal sway Mauer.

2010 Opening Day 25-Man Roster:

STARTING LINEUP

C: Joe Mauer ($16M)
1B: Justin Morneau ($14M)
2B: Placido Polanco ($4.5M)
3B: Brendan Harris ($1.1M)
SS: J.J. Hardy ($5.5M)
LF: Denard Span ($450K)
CF: Carlos Gomez ($1.5M)
RF: Michael Cuddyer ($8.5M)
DH: Jason Kubel ($4.1M)

(Approx $54M)

BENCH

C: Jose Morales ($450K)
IF: Mike Sweeney ($1M)
IF: Nick Punto ($4M)
OF: Jason Pridie ($450K)

(Approx $6M)

ROTATION

SP: Scott Baker ($3M)
SP: Carl Pavano ($6M)
SP: Kevin Slowey ($450K)
SP: Francisco Liriano ($2M)
SP: Nick Blackburn ($450K)

(Approx $12M)

BULLPEN

CL: Joe Nathan ($11.25M)
RP: Matt Guerrier ($2.8M)
RP: Jon Rauch ($2.9M)
RP: Jose Mijares ($450K)
RP: Pat Neshek ($750K)
RP: Boof Bonser ($900K)
RP: Brian Duensing ($450K)

(Approx $19.5M)

TOTAL 2010 PAYROLL: $91.5M

SUMMARY:
The payroll rises drastically, by about $20 million. Arbitration raises, along with Mauer’s new contract, have taken their toll, and you’ve got to pay to upgrade the paltry production in the infield. While this is a major payroll leap, the Twins seemed headed for a $90 million payroll around this time back in 2007, at which point they boasted a $71M payroll after having increased spending for three straight years. Twelve major-league teams had a payroll over $90 million in 2009, and with their brand-new stadium the Twins should be joining that upper half in spending.

This lineup has the potential to be a significant improvement over the 2009 unit, but much depends on Hardy bouncing back. That’s a better gamble than getting adequate regular production from Punto or Alexi Casilla (who opens the season in the minors). People surely won’t be excited about the prospect of Harris and Punto splitting time at third, but the upgrades in the middle-infield should offset this and hopefully Danny Valencia will be ready to take over at some point during the season. Jason Pridie serves as a defensive replacement and pinch runner while Punto returns to his super sub role. The bullpen features three or four reliable late-inning guys (depending on how Neshek looks); Bonser and Duensing are available for long relief and are potential options to step into the rotation should anyone stumble or get hurt.

A Win For Bill Smith

Not many people are going out of their way to compliment Bill Smith right now. The Twins are on their way to a second-place finish in what was an eminently winnable division, and that has a lot to do with Smith's inability to get decent value back in the Johan Santana and Matt Garza trades, as well as his inability to find adequate talent to surround the team's outstanding offensive core.

There is one offseason move, however, that Smith deserves credit for, and that's the Joe Crede signing.

Now, I'm not saying Smith deserves credit for simply signing Crede. I don't think that the acquisition was all that elemental to the team's limited success this season. Crede -- who apparently is done for the year -- will have played in just over half the team's games while providing a pitifully low AVG/OBP along with sporadic power. Was Crede better than a platoon of Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher, or whatever other internal options the Twins might have produced? Probably, mostly because of his defense. But I have a hard time viewing him as any sort of great, hugely meaningful acquisition.

What Smith deserves credit for is signing Crede to the right type of contract. By all accounts, Crede's notoriously devious agent Scott Boras was initially seeking at least $7 million guaranteed for his client's services in 2009. Many fans were on board with simply splurging and giving Crede the contract right away, noting that the Twins were under budget and likely wouldn't have ended up spending that extra money anyway. While both those things might have been true, I opposed such a signing because to me, a bad contract is a bad contract and those should never be advocated. Smith seemingly felt the same way, because he waited out Boras for several weeks until the price for the oft-injured third baseman came down. Finally, Boras' attempts to play the Twins against the Giants (neither of whom seemed to be adamantly interested in signing Crede) failed and Smith was able to tab Crede to a one-year deal worth only $2.5 million guaranteed, with playing time incentives that could bring him to his originally desired $7 million total.

Crede was reasonably healthy over the first couple months of the season, but as was almost inevitable he broke down after a few months and will likely end the year having appeared in fewer games than he did last year with the White Sox. While he was able to earn about $1.5 million in incentives on top of his base salary, he'll come about $3 million short of the $7 million sum he was reportedly seeking initially. That $3 million may not seem like much to the casual fan who sees millions of payroll dollars thrown around all over the place, but the Twins are a frugal team -- let's not forget that they were willing to take a huge PR and negative clubhouse hit just to shed a few million dollars by trading Luis Castillo at the 2007 deadline. Had they been locked into Crede for his original demand, would the Twins have been as willing to take on the extra salary of guys like Carl Pavano and Jon Rauch, both of whom could be contributors on next year's club as well?

In the end, it's tough to be overly upset about what Crede gave the 2009 Twins, as long as your expectations were properly scaled. He hit some home runs, he played some good defense, and he'll end up missing a huge chunk of the year. From a fan's perspective, it might not matter much whether he was providing this production for $7 million or $4 million. From the front office's perspective, it could matter quite a bit.

Stretching Your Money

Recently, the White Sox signed Gavin Floyd to a four-year, $15.5 million deal with a $9 million option for 2013. If those terms sound familar, it's because they are basically identical to those of the contract the Twins handed Scott Baker earlier this month: four years, $15.25 million with a $9.25 option for 2013.

On the surface, the two pitchers may seem similar. Both put up solid numbers last year, with Floyd going 17-8 and posting a 3.84 ERA in Chicago while Baker went 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA for the Twins. On closer inspection, however, we see that Baker was the better pitcher last year, and has been a far better pitcher in general.

Baker struck out 141 batters while issuing only 42 walks for a 3.4 K/BB ratio that easily trumped Floyd's 2.1 ratio. Baker's 1.18 WHIP -- which ranked fifth in the AL -- bested Floyd's 1.26. And while Baker struggled a bit with the long ball, allowing 20 home runs in 172 1/3 innings, Floyd was worse, as he coughed up 30 gopher balls in 206 1/3 frames.

The most important thing to note, though, is that while the disparity between the numbers posted by these two players last year is not necessarily huge, Baker's 2008 season looks much less like a fluke in the context of his overall career. Last year, Baker was backing up a solid 2007 campaign in which he'd gone 9-9 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, whereas Floyd had gone 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.48 WHIP that season. For his big-league career, Floyd holds a 4.98 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, while Baker stands at 4.27 and 1.29.

A quick look at the FIP (a measure which strips away extraneous circumstances and accounts only for events which a pitcher has direct control over: namely strikeouts, walks and homers) for both players in 2008 reveals the gap between performance and results. Baker's FIP was 3.85, suggesting that a bit of luck was involved with his 3.45 ERA. Floyd's FIP was 4.78, suggesting a larger gap in performance and results. Floyd's runs against average was 4.67, meaning that a whole bunch of unearned runs came across the plate against him that weren't reflected in his ERA. His home run per fly ball rate was the lowest it's been in four years, meaning that if we normalized that figure out to the rest of his career, he'd have surrendered even more than 30 bombs, a tally which already ranked second in the AL.

It seems fair to say that Baker's successful results last year were the result of pitching very well. Floyd's successful results had more to do with good run support and luck. With that being the case, a better comparison for Floyd on the Twins' staff might be Glen Perkins.

Like Floyd, Perkins was a very nice prospect coming up through the minors who has seen his strikeout rate dip since reaching the majors (though the drop-off has been much steeper in Perkins' case). Also like Floyd, Perkins pitched over his head last year, going 12-4 with a 4.41 ERA despite allowing an 837 OPS and finishing with a 5.24 FIP. As pitchers, the two are fairly similar -- both allow a fairly high number of baserunners, both give up a lot of fly balls (and a lot of homers) and neither strikes many people out. Perkins is younger and less experienced so he may have more room to grow, but Floyd probably is the better pitcher as things currently stand. Going forward, I'd say the two have a similar outlook. Either one is capable of putting together a quality season, but both have significant flaws that can catch up with them at any time. Both these possibilities were on display last season, as each starter pitched fairly well over the first half of the season but got worse as the year went on.

Anyway, all this wordy analysis is a long-winded way of making a simple point: within the past month or so, the Twins have signed their Opening Day starter and presumptive ace to the same contract that the White Sox handed a pitcher who aligns much more closely with the Twins' No. 5 starter. I'm not saying that necessarily means that Baker is underpaid, or that Floyd is overpaid, but it's the way these things work. And from the Twins perspective, it's a pretty sweet deal.

Cost Control

The beauty of a five-man pitching rotation comprised entirely of young, controllable pitchers was evident on Saturday when the Twins signed Scott Baker to a four-year, $15.25 million contract. The deal is not huge news -- the Twins are simply gaining cost certainty over the next four years, a span during which Baker was under their control anyway. This contract will probably save them some money over the arbitration route and the $9.25 million team option for Baker's first year of free agency is very nice, but the magnitude of this signing certainly is not on par with, say, the Justin Morneau contract last offseason.

It's good to see the Twins being proactive with Baker, who was a logical candidate to be first member of the rotation to receive a long-term deal since he's closer to free agency than everyone other than Francisco Liriano, who still carries some injury concerns. Baker will deservedly be the Twins' Opening Day starter on April 6, and on the open market a pitcher of his caliber would likely cost at least $10 million per season. The fact that the Twins will pay just over $15 million to him over the next four years combined and will face similarly inexpensive commitments with the rest of the team's starters leaves them with plenty of money to spend elsewhere. And of course the most important place for that money to be directed is very clear.

Time to get to work on a new contract for Joe Mauer.

The Cost of Mauer

When the American League Most Valuable Player voting results were released earlier this week, Justin Morneau found himself runner-up by a relatively thin margin, an indication that without his season-ending slump he may have found himself with a second MVP trophy in three years, an immense honor for the 27-year-old first baseman of humble origins.

Of course, there's nothing too surprising about Morneau's success on the MVP ballots in 2006 and 2008. A slugging first baseman with big RBI totals playing for a successful team and hitting in a lineup where his power numbers stand out immensely, Morneau is the type of player BBWAA voters have long drooled over.

Yet, lost in the impressiveness of Morneau's top finishes on the MVP voting is the impressive feat of his teammate, Joe Mauer, who crept up to a fourth-place finish this year after placing sixth in 2006. Mauer's rise in the vote doesn't necessarily reflect improved production (his numbers in '06 were, in fact, markedly better), nor does it necessarily reflect a diminished field of competition (the 2006 ballot featured a similarly unremarkable crop). Instead, I think Mauer's two-slot rise in the ballot illustrates two trends: an advancement in the way the voters think, and Mauer's continual ascension as a national celebrity.

Some might be a bit reluctant to accept that first point, but hear me out. While there are still some stubborn folks on the voting committee -- such as Tom Boswell and Evan Grant -- who are stuck focusing on the narrowly defined MVP qualifications of yesteryear, I've seen noticeable progress in recent years as beat writers and columnists who were raised on a few simple statistics have been more and more open to delving deeper and giving serious credibility to the advanced metrics that tell us so much more about a player's performance. More and more, I see writers taking positional value and defense into account, and putting increased value into numbers like on-base percentage and OPS, while putting less credence into intangibles like leadership and clutchness. I think we saw that this year, with Dustin Pedroia and Albert Pujols capturing the honor in their respective leagues. Both were not really traditional candidates; Pedroia, the second baseman without big power, and Pujols, the transcendent hitter whose team handily missed the playoffs.

More than that though, I think Mauer's improved voting results can be attributed to the fact that he's more nationally known. He's now won two batting titles. He started the All Star Game for the AL this year and reeled in his first Gold Glove. Nationwide, I think people are starting to appreciate more and more what an exquisite and unique player he is.

The question now, with just two years remaining on his current contract, is how this widely perceived increase in value will play out when it comes to negotiating a contract. When Mauer's agent meets with members of the Twins' front office to discuss a potential contract extension, is Mauer viewed as the patient, singles-hitting catcher who gets on base to set up the team's true MVP-caliber slugger? Or is he viewed as one of baseball's most valuable players whose contributions at a weak offensive position make him a rare and highly valuable asset?

The question is important, because these contract discussions could start taking place during this offseason, if they haven't already. For while the Twins can certainly wait until next offseason to enter real contract negotiations, extending him now -- with the star catcher still two full years away from sniffing free agency -- might be cheaper, and as we saw with the Johan Santana situation that unfolded last winter, dealing with a highly coveted player who is entering his last season before hitting the open market can cause some real headaches.

So just how much would it cost to extend Mauer? Unfortunately, there's no good baseline to go by. There are a few catchers around the league who are on Mauer's plane, such as Russell Martin, Brian McCann and 2008 NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, but all of these players are young and none of them have signed free agent contracts as of yet. It's difficult to judge what Mauer's comparative value is on the current market.

If he wants, Mauer can pretty easily argue that he's the most irreplaceable member of the Twins' roster, both from a production and public-relations standpoint, and as such he could command a staggering contract in the neighborhood of $18 million a year over an extended period. People should think twice before expecting that the St. Paul native will offer a friendly hometown discount, as he's never really done so before (both his initial signing bonus and his current four-year contract were pretty much market value). One has to expect that, at the very least, Mauer will be looking at a five or six-year extension with an annual salary exceeding $15 million. That's a major investment, and a fairly risky one when you consider Mauer's injury history and the very real possibility that he could need to be moved from behind the plate at some point (a move which would substantially lower his value). Is it worth it?

My answer: yes. And I say that without really having any clue what terms Mauer and his agent will be commanding. I'd say that the Twins No. 1 priority over the next two years should be making sure they can lock up Mauer to a long-term deal, even if the expense is exorbitant. It is extremely rare that a player with such a combination of offensive skill, defensive aptitude, quality character and immense fan appeal comes along, and losing him for unwillingness to pay is simply not something this organization can afford to do.

The year of 2010 marks the beginning of a new era in Twins baseball as the team begins play in Target Field. The increased revenue provided by this stadium should go directly toward making sure that Mauer is out there on that field in a Twins uniform for the better part of the next decade. The novelty of a new ballpark wears off after a couple years, and eventually people will stop buying tickets just to come see it. But people will always pay to go out and see a historically great player, which Mauer seems well on his way to becoming.

Keeping Everyone Happy

Following the announcement of the Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer contracts on Friday afternoon, Aaron Gleeman posted an analysis on his blog that was -- judging by the reaction in his comments section -- perceived as a rather negative take on the deals. Gleeman's argument is that the $104 million that the team has collectively committed to the two players is quite risky when you take into account that neither player has proven that he can consistently provide more than slightly above-average production for his position. Gleeman did note that keeping relatively young and talented players in Minnesota is "obviously a positive thing," and I doubt he intended for his analysis come off as negative as many people took it, but I think it's fair to say that he is less than thrilled with the contracts.

As usual, Gleeman's analysis is accurate, and I agree with the core of his argument. On multiple occasions here, I have labeled Cuddyer as a fairly mediocre right fielder (which has often raised some debate), and Morneau's hitting line last year was pretty much in line with his career line, which is nothing special for a first baseman. (On an aside, I am fairly confident that Morneau will be a significantly above-average hitter over the life of his contract -- in his case I think it is fair to put more stock into the past two seasons while overlooking his atrocious 2005 campaign to some degree.)

With all that being said, I think that the scope of Gleeman's analysis was a bit narrow. Looking strictly at the statistics and the Twins' payroll situation, it's fairly easy to view these signings as a potentially dangerous risk that may have not been overly savvy. Yet, aside from simply locking up two young players who can hit, these signings accomplish a pair of other important tasks: they please fans and they please players. Those might seem like ambiguous and perhaps unimportant goals, and they're not easily analyzed because they are difficult to qualify, but I think they are important, particularly considering the Twins' current situation.

Just as the construction on a new stadium in downtown Minneapolis starts to hit its stride, the Twins are saying goodbye to some of their most popular players. This offseason, the Twins have parted ways with Torii Hunter, and now appear to be on the verge of dealing Johan Santana. Both of these decisions came about due to money, and with the new stadium being put in place and the revenue in Major League Baseball rising, fans can easily get a bad message. Bill Smith and the Twins felt that they needed to make a statement and show that this team is willing to spend money and compete, and so they did so by signing a few core players to some fairly large contracts. Is there risk associated with these contracts? Naturally, but during his tenure as general manager Smith has not shown a major aversion to risk, which is something I respect.

Letting a fan favorite who was the team's best hitter last year walk in free agency is a significant risk, but the Twins seemingly made little effort to re-sign Hunter. Trading the team's best young healthy pitcher for a toolsy but unproven 22-year-old outfielder is a significant risk, but Smith dealt Matt Garza for Delmon Young. And signing a first-baseman who is coming off a relatively mediocre campaign to the largest contract in team history is a significant risk, but the Twins now owe Morneau $80 million over the next six years.

These moves have carried some risk, to be sure, but I would argue that they are necessary risks and that the upside in each of these moves has far outweighed the downside. Losing Hunter might hurt this year and perhaps next year, but I think most would agree that he will not be worth $18 million in 2011 or 2012. Young is almost certain to develop into at least a solidly above-average hitter, even if he never makes good on the Manny Ramirez comparisons. And while perhaps Morneau's true self is not the MVP-caliber hitter he was in 2006, he is a great bet to provide above-average production and very good power to the middle of this lineup over the next six years. That's worth a lot in a lineup that lacks punch and an organization that has very little on the horizon in terms of promising power hitters. In his article, Gleeman rightfully notes that it shouldn't be overly difficult to identify inexpensive players that can provide solid production at power-hitting positions through various means, but it cannot be taken for granted that the Twins simply have not been able to do this. Having a guy like Morneau locked up is important for that reason.

Cuddyer's contract is reasonable, in terms of years and cost, and I think that's a pretty difficult contract to criticize. Morneau's contract is a lot larger, and that seems to be where critics are leveling most of their concern. Over the last four years of the deal, Morneau will be making a significant amount of money -- $14M/yr between the 2010 and 2013 seasons. Yet, these most expensive seasons all come with the Twins' new ballpark in place, and as long as the league's revenues continue to rise and the free agent marketplace continues to escalate, there's more than a good chance that those salaries will look like a bargain by that time.

With players complaining about a lack of commitment to winning, and fans scratching their heads over an inexplicable lack of spending, the Twins needed to make a statement, and they did so with these contracts. There's risk, but it is an acceptable amount and it is not likely to cripple the team's payroll anytime soon. Whether or not they were incredibly smart, these signings illustrate a commitment to winning to players and fans that should make everybody happy.

You Better Lock It Up!

As the annual TwinsFest celebration kicked off at the Metrodome yesterday, the Twins made a move to generate some excitement by announcing long-term extensions for Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer. Morneau's deal is the largest in club history, spanning six years and totaling $80 million. Cuddyer's deal is considerably shorter, registering at three years/$23 million with a club option for a fourth year worth $10.5 million.'

Let me start off by saying that I'm pretty happy with both of these signings. When analyzing the arbitration-eligible Twins last week, I advocated that the Twins stick with a one-year commitment to Cuddyer; yet, it's tough to take issue with this contract. The years and money are both reasonable, and I love the club option for a fourth year. At worst, Cuddyer is probably about a league-average right fielder, and if he can find his 2006 form and revert back into that type of hitter, the Twins can activate the fourth year and perhaps get a bargain.

Then there's the Morneau deal. I think one can easily make the argument that the Twins are overpaying for Morneau. Over the course of his career, he has really only been an average first baseman overall, and it seems dumbfounding that he can collect a contract worth $80 million when the comparably valuable Joe Mauer signed for $33 million just a year ago. With all that being said, Morneau is a very good hitter and I am fairly optimistic that he'll be an above-average first baseman over the length of this contract. He is one of the team's top hitters, and in a system as sparse on bats as the this one, locking him up for the next six years is an important step. Moreover, I think that this contract sends a positive message to the players and fans.

With baseball's revenue rising and a new stadium on the horizon, the Twins have money to spend. They committed a nice big chunk of it yesterday to a pair of important members of the team. I think both of these players have more upside than downside, and it's tough to see these contracts really coming back to hurt the time. A nice, aggressive move by Bill Smith. Now, we see what effect the moves have on the Johan Santana situation.