On Free Agent Shortstops

As they look ahead to next season, the Twins know that there are a lot of areas on the roster they should probably address.

Here is a resource, http://www.sportsmanagementcolleges.net, for those of you who want to get into the management side of sports.

The rotation is plagued by ongoing injury concerns. Joe Mauer's ability to remain at catcher is in question -- same with Justin Morneau and first base. The outfield is in a serious state of flux, with Denard Span battling concussion symptoms while Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel prepare to test free agency.

It'd be nice to add players at all these positions during the offseason, so as to build a foundation of depth that might prevent a similar disaster next season. There's one spot, however, where upgrading ought to be a mandate rather than a luxury. That position is shortstop.

Even if all the players mentioned above heal splendidly during the winter months -- which frankly would border on miraculous -- the Twins still won't have a player in the organization that they can feel comfortable about starting at one of the most important positions on the field. The Tsuyoshi Nishioka experiment is looking at this point like a complete bust, and while I believe Trevor Plouffe will figure things out eventually he's done himself no favors during this erratic late-season audition.

Without a doubt, the Twins are going to need to acquire someone to at least compete with Plouffe and Nishioka for a starting job next spring. Unfortunately, shortstop is always one of the toughest positions to address in free agency and that's certainly true this year. I sorted through the options in my research for the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, and suffice to say that the crop drops off very sharply after Jose Reyes.

One could certainly make a case that the Twins, who will have some money available this offseason and could use an exciting shape-up, would be wise to make a run at Reyes. He's a premier player at his position and he's wrapping up an excellent campaign.

Unfortunately, there are two things about him that should be viewed by Twins fans as red flags. One is his injury history; he's missed 191 games over the last three years. The other is his lack of outstanding power. It's extremely tough to find shortstops with good pop, but the problem is that a Reyes contract would consume money that the Twins -- who have hit the third-fewest home runs in baseball this year -- might have otherwise used on re-signing Cuddyer or Kubel, or on acquiring another power bat.

The Twins are probably best served by looking to the trade market and trying to find a buy-low candidate, like the Orioles did last year with J.J. Hardy. Free agency offers more in terms of solid depth than legitimate starters. If depth is the goal, though, the Twins might consider turning their gaze to a familiar face.

Nick Punto has been limited to 59 games for the Cardinals this year because of injuries, but when he's played he's been productive, batting .258/.373/.379 with an excellent 20-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio while bringing plenty of value with the glove as usual. His suspect health is obviously a sticking point, but if he comes as cheap as he did for St. Louis last winter ($750K), what's the harm in bringing him aboard? You don't sign him and designate him as your starting shortstop, but he's very handy to have around and for all grumbling about him from Twins fans over the years, there's no question that the team missed him this season.

It may be that Punto is only an incremental upgrade over the likes of Matt Tolbert, but perhaps incremental upgrades are what the front office should be focusing on. Fans yearn for that Reyes-like offseason home run, but what this season revealed is that the club's second tier of players is in a state of disrepair. What happens with the top-level guys like Mauer, Morneau and Span will happen, but either way the rest of the roster needs to get better, with stronger depth across the board.

Adding a player like Punto would help accomplish that. As far as finding a starter at shortstop, it doesn't look like free agency is the answer.

Saying Goodbye

Nick Punto has been a fixture for the Twins ever since being acquired alongside Carlos Silva in a 2003 trade. Over the past seven years, perhaps no player has incurred more wrath than the fan base than Punto, who undoubtedly earned more playing time (2,707 plate appearances) and money (over $14 million) than his ability warranted during his tenure in Minnesota.

As anyone who's played on a baseball team will attest, being in the manager's good graces can be very beneficial. Punto knows this better than anyone. For whatever reason, Ron Gardenhire seemed entranced with him, perhaps seeing some of his old self in the versatile, hustling, light-hitting infielder. Without a doubt, Punto's value was overblown by the Twins' coaching staff -- and, perhaps as an extension of that, the front office.

For that reason, it's curious that the Twins were unwilling to bring him back at a point where it would have seemingly made sense to do so. The Twins and Punto officially parted ways on Friday, when the free agent signed a one-year, $700,000 contract with the Cardinals.

Punto was surely stretched as a starter, so it was frustrating to see him paid (and often times played) like one over the past several years. But he's a quality defender at no less than three different positions. Players like that aren't easy to find. He's a good backup and not a bad fallback option to have on the roster; after all, Punto's best seasons ('06, '08) have come when he's started as a backup and stepped in for a struggling or injured starter. Given the uncertainty surrounding the Twins' infield this season, a player with that history would be valuable, especially at the price the Cards got him for.

That the Twins were willing to let Punto walk over such an insignificant price indicates that they feel the 33-year-old's assets -- namely, defense and foot speed -- are ready to decline, though there wasn't much evidence of that last year. Matt Tolbert, on the surface, looks like a decent enough replacement, but the modest difference in price wouldn't seem to override the sizable difference in big-league track record.

Punto's exit is widely being met with glee by fans. He'll probably be remembered more for his historically awful 2007 campaign and his third base overrun in the '09 ALDS than his numerous highlight reel plays, but that's the nature of the beast.

If the Twins were ready to move on, I'm willing to assume that he's done as a useful player. I can't imagine them parting with him over $700K, in their current situation, unless they thought that was the case. As such, I'm not exactly feeling sweet sorrow over this parting.

Nevertheless, it wasn't such a bad run, all things considered.

Bill Smith's Greatest Weakness

Overall, Bill Smith's body of work as Twins general manager has been impressive. He took over at an extremely unenviable time, facing the task of letting two of the most popular and talented players in franchise history -- Torii Hunter and Johan Santana -- depart while keeping the team competitive. While that first winter was not a particularly strong one, Smith's Twins did surprisingly come within a game of the playoffs in 2008 and they won the division in each of the next two years.

The Twins front office under Smith has shown clear competency in a number of areas. These include targeting quality players in trades when their value is at a low point (JJ Hardy and Carl Pavano come to mind), acquiring valuable pieces through free agency (an area where Terry Ryan consistently struggled), drafting and being aggressive on the international market.

One area where Smith and Co. have not been particularly adept, however, is extending the contracts of their own players.

I'm not talking about the big fish. The heaping salaries of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan are hard to stomach now, obviously, but no one could have predicted they'd suffer the type of major injuries they did. One can question the wisdom of paying Joe Mauer $23 million annually for the better part of the next decade, but it was a fair contract and the Twins would have been ravaged if they hadn't locked the MVP up after '09.

What I take issue with is some of the extensions Smith has given lesser players on the roster, and specifically the timing of those extensions. While he's shown an ability to bring in external players at bargain prices because their value is down, he tends to negotiate contracts with his own players when their value is superficially high.

Denard Span and Nick Blackburn, both of whom signed long-term deals buying out all their arbitration years prior to this season, are good examples. Each of these players performed in '08 and '09 at a level that far exceeded their minor-league track record. Blackburn's numbers seemed particularly difficult to sustain, as it doesn't take a hardcore sabermetrician to understand that when you constantly pitch to contact and don't draw ground balls at a particularly dazzling rate, you're liable to get blown up.

Both those players took major steps backwards this season, which shouldn't have come as an enormous surprise based on their histories and tendencies. Yet, the team is now locked into paying them both over the next 3-4 years at a rate based on their performance in the first two seasons. If Span and Blackburn continue to decline, they'll keep being paid as strong producers due to contract extensions that were totally unnecessary given that both were under team control for several more years.

Nick Punto represents another example of badly timed extension. If the team wanted to keep him around (which you'd have to guess they always did), they could have handed him a low-money extension after his historically dismal 2007 season. Instead, they waited until he put together a solid effort in '08 -- his last year under contract -- and had to pay him $8.5 million over two years to keep him from exiting via free agency. As a result they've had to pay him $4 million in each of the past two years to put up a sub-.630 OPS while characteristically battling injuries.

And then there's the Michael Cuddyer contract. This stands out to me as Smith's most egregious and baffling move yet. It's not so much the contract itself -- a three-year deal worth $24 million -- I have a problem with, although one could certainly question handing him such a sizable deal after a very pedestrian 2007 campaign. It's the stipulation regarding the club option. It had to be exercised five days after the end of the 2009 World Series, meaning the Twins had to decide whether or not they would pay Cuddyer $10.5 million in 2011 before seeing what he did in 2010.

I can't recall ever seeing a contract structured like this before. I can see why Cuddyer's agent would push for it, knowing that Cuddyer would be moving past the age of 30 in 2009 and understanding that the team might be more likely to activate the lucrative option after that season than after his 2010 season where age could start taking a greater toll on the right fielder's performance. What I don't understand is why in the world Smith would agree to it.

Was it really a deal-breaker? Was Cuddyer going to turn down an extension that paid him an average of $8 million annually after a relatively mediocre season because the club option was to be exercised after the final guaranteed year of the deal, as with any normal contract? By structuring the deal like this, Smith opened himself to the possibility that Cuddyer would have a great '09 campaign, making the option look like a no-brainer and prompting the team to activate it, then follow up with a poor 2010 season that cast doubt on his future productivity. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened and now the Twins are forced to pay Cuddyer's hefty salary next year when under normal circumstances they'd have the option of letting him walk or negotiating a new deal.

I like most of what Smith has done, but the burdensome long-term contracts of players like Span, Blackburn, Punto and Cuddyer stand as glaring examples of a pervasive weakness. This winter, he'll once again have the opportunity to extend the contracts of several players. I mentioned Francisco Liriano as a top priority on Wednesday, and players like JJ Hardy, Alexi Casilla and Kevin Slowey are also candidates for extensions.

I can only hope that the front office shows better judgment in handing out such extensions this winter, because unlike the Yankees, this team simply isn't equipped financially to deal with a multitude of poorly concieved contracts.

To Walk or Not to Walk?

Some looked at the big spike in Nick Punto's walks last year and saw a mirage. Why would pitchers not throw strikes to a hitter with a .284 slugging percentage? Surely, one would think, that Punto's heightened walk rate -- he was issued a free pass in 13.8 percent of his plate appearances after compiling a 9 percent rate over the first eight seasons of his big-league career -- must be a fluke.

Others figured that perhaps the versatile middle infielder had developed a repeatable skill, crouching in the batter's box to shrink his strike zone and laying off nearly every pitch that didn't come through that zone. Punto was flustering pitchers who were by no means afraid to throw him strikes.

So far in this young season, it appears that the first camp was correct. Punto has drawn only four walks in 66 plate appearances this year, translating to a 6 percent walk rate which is well below his career average. The drop-off hasn't been all bad though, as Punto has raised his batting average to .276 while accumulating a somewhat respectable .362 slugging percentage. If Punto could start drawing walks at a rate somewhere close to where he was last year, he'd actually be a pretty valuable contributor at the bottom of the lineup, but right now his .308 on-base percentage is suppressing his offensive value. We'll see if the walk rate rises at all in the coming months.

On the other end of the spectrum, there's Justin Morneau. After drawing his league-leading 29th walk yesterday, Morneau holds an otherworldly 20.1 percent walk rate. That easily crushes his 12.2 percent rate from a year ago, which had at that time established a career high. Unlike with Punto last year, the rationale behind walking Morneau is easy to understand: he's been a monster. He's batting .357 and his 1.138 OPS leads the American League.

By laying off more pitches (58.3 percent) than ever before in his career, Morneau is taking advantage of other teams' fear of throwing him strikes and putting himself on base at a higher rate than any other player in baseball. This development in his game has boasted his overall productivity and has him in line for an MVP-caliber season. We'll see if he can keep it up.

And if he does, let's hope it's contagious. Because that's something Punto could stand to catch.

Position Analysis: Third Base

Likely Starter: Nick Punto
2009 Stats: .228/.337/.287, 1 HR, 38 RBI

Punto will rely on his keen eye at the plate to buoy his offensive game.

Potential Backups: Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert

Much like second base, the hot corner has becoming a revolving door for the Twins over the past handful of seasons. Since Corey Koskie's departure, the Twins have auditioned Michael Cuddyer, Tony Batista, Nick Punto, Mike Lamb, Joe Crede, Brendan Harris, Brian Buscher and others at third base and have never come up with very strong results.

Not surprisingly, third base is shaping up to be the weakest position on the field for the Twins this year. Rather than signing or trading for an established regular to replace the departed Crede, it appears that the Twins will install some combination of Punto and Harris at third this season. Neither of the two figures to be much of an offensive contributor, but they both have their strengths and since they will likely be occupying the ninth spot in the lineup most days, expectations will be fairly low.

Punto is the favorite to man third on Opening Day and draw the majority of starts at the position. How come? Well, for one thing, despite his poor overall performance last year he finished the season strong and was a key contributor in the team's late surge. That helps, particularly since Ron Gardenhire has a tendency to find any reason he can to defend Punto's regular presence in the lineup. In addition, Punto will make $4 million this year, and the Twins likely aren't too keen on paying that kind of money to a bench player.

Punto has molded himself into a walk-taking machine, which helps offset his weak bat. Despite posting terrible numbers in the batting average and slugging percentage columns, Punto managed a respectable .337 on-base percentage last year thanks to a team-leading walk rate. If Punto can stick with this approach (and he has already drawn three free passes in 12 plate appearances this spring) he should avoid being a liability in the nine-hole even if his bat doesn't experience its usual even-year resurgence.

Of course, Punto's greatest value comes in the field, where his outstanding mitt makes him an asset. He's a strong defender all around the infield, but third base rates statistically as Punto's best position, as he has amassed a UZR/150 of 19.9 in nearly 1800 innings there. For reference, Crede's career number in that category is 10.2.

With the Twins' bench shaping up to be relatively thin this season, Gardenhire may look to utilize Punto's versatility by moving him around the field to fill in elsewhere frequently. On these days, and days where Punto is simply on the bench, Harris figures to be called upon at third. While he's not a real strong defender, third base is probably Harris' best defensive position and he's certainly got a more potent bat than Punto. While somewhat useless against right-handed pitching, Harris holds a .302/.348/.403 career line against southpaws so it's obvious when he should be in the lineup.

In the even that both Punto and Harris struggle (which is hardly unthinkable), the Twins' fallback plan will be Danny Valencia, who is slated to open the season in Rochester. The 25-year-old needs to demonstrate improved plate discipline and steady glovework at Triple-A before the organization will be ready to give him a stab at the big-league job, but it would hardly be surprising to see him manning the hot corner at Target Field in the later months of the season.

Early on, though, it appears that the best recipe for the Twins will be a combination of Punto and Harris at third. With more groundball-heavy pitchers on the mound -- such as Nick Blackburn and (hopefully) Francisco Liriano -- the Gardenhire should opt for Punto, who can team with J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson to form the rangiest infield we've seen around here in some time. With lefty pitchers toeing the rubber for the opposition, Harris stands out as the best option.

The two aren't likely to make anyone forget about Koskie, but they don't need to. If Punto and Harris can take care of all the balls hit at them while getting on base enough to turn the lineup over, they'll be adequate.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Punto: .240/.335/.305, 2 HR, 40 RBI

Distinctly Punto

There are a lot of things that can be said about Nick Punto. (And today, I'm sure a lot of things will be said.) But one undeniable truth is that he plays the game about as hard as anyone in the league. Type his name into a Google image search and you'll find picture after picture of him diving face-first into a base, falling over after fielding a ball and making an off-balance throw while fully horizontal, or sliding hard into a base to break up a double play. A grimace routinely adorns his face in these photos as he exerts his full energy to make things happen on the field. At times this wreckless style has played against Punto -- unnecessary slides into first base and a lengthy history of injuries come to mind -- but it's hard not to respect a guy who is seeking to get the most out of his relatively limited skill set and help the team win at all costs.

I've had an up-and-down relationship with Punto, to be sure. I was one of his most staunch defenders early on, routinely arguing with folks over at SBG and other places about his potential value to the club, and I felt vindicated after he took over third base duties from Tony Batista in 2006 and pieced together a very strong campaign while helping push the Twins to a postseason berth. Of course, Punto followed up that season with one of the worst offensive showings in major-league history in 2007, causing him to wear thin with most Twins fans, including myself. Many have never forgiven him for that brutal season, and over the past two years I've seen more vitriol directed toward Punto than any other player from local fans.

To me, Punto is what he is at this point: a versatile player who can provide a lot of value to a club if utilized correctly but who is stretched in an everyday role. Too often, Ron Gardenhire has struggled to find the proper role for Punto, letting his unabashed adoration for the utility man's aforementioned maximal effort cloud sound managerial judgment. At times it became incredibly painful to see Punto's name continually written into the lineup during that '07 season, and the same can be said for last year, when he posted similarly terrible offensive numbers.

But, through it all, Punto has been a stout defender around the field and a consummate teammate. When he's going good offensively, he can be a solid contributor with the bat, and recently he has evolved his plate approach and become a much more patient hitter. Punto's diminutive size and hunched batting stance provide opposing pitchers with a reduced strike zone; this combined with his willingness to watch a lot of pitches has turned Punto into something of a walk-taking machine. From July 1 to the end of the season last year, Punto walked in 15.8 percent of his plate appearances (it should go without saying that none of those walks were intentional). For comparison, Joe Mauer drew unintentional walks in 9.2 percent of his plate appearances during that same span. Given that Mauer possesses one of the league's most discerning eyes and was amidst an MVP season that had pitchers routinely trying to pitch around him, that's awfully impressive.

Punto's outstanding ability to draw free passes enabled him to post a respectable .337 on-base percentage last year despite a dreadful .228 batting average and .284 slugging percentage. If he can rebound to some degree in the latter categories this year -- as he did in 2006 and 2008 -- while maintaining his new found ability to draw walks at an excellent rate, Punto can become a quality offensive contributor and an asset to the lineup when his defense is factored in.

What's nice is that the pressure on Punto this year is exceedingly low. While he figures to draw regular starts at third base -- an offense-oriented position -- he'll be batting ninth in a lineup that looks to be pretty strong one-through-eight. The average AL No. 9 hitter batted just .245/.305/.349 last season, and that mark certainly seems achievable for Punto (albeit with a higher figure in the OBP column and a lower figure in the SLG column). Plus, Brendan Harris' presence gives the Twins a solid backup option -- which they lacked at third base in 2007 and at shortstop for much of 2009 -- and should allow Punto to move around the field and capitalize on his defensive versatility.

By no means is Punto a great player, and many teams around the league wouldn't even view him as a starter. But he has a distinct style and he plays hard, which is why I've always enjoyed watching him and why I've been in his corner more than most folks during his tenure with the Twins. It's very possible that he'll break his even/odd year trend and put forth another dud offensive season this year, but there are encouraging trends to be drawn from his second half last season. With his strong glovework and his patient plate approach, he seems poised to be a valuable contributor to this team even if his offensive game doesn't return to the level it was at in '06 and '08. And if it does return to that level, fans should have no trouble forgiving that disastrous 2007 campaign, or his final gaffe last October that left fans with a sour taste in their mouths:

For better or for worse, Nick Punto will be throwing his body around and doing all he can to help the team win this season. Just as he always has.

Perpetual Punto

It's amazing how predictable some things are.

During the All-Star break, I put together a bit of a rant about Nick Punto. I railed on his ghastly play up to that point in the season, and lamented that "no matter how poor his performance gets, he will seemingly always maintain a starting role on this club." Lo and behold, despite having batted just .226 since the day I wrote that article, Punto has started 15 of the team's 18 games. And while the acquisition of Orlando Cabrera would have seemingly nudged the underperforming Punto out of his starting job at shortstop and onto the bench, the move has instead only slid Punto over to second base, where he has started three of the team's four games since Cabrera's arrival.

Meanwhile, Brendan Harris has started just one of the Twins' past six games, and since Ron Gardenhire remains steadfastly opposed to letting him play second base, it appears that Harris has been essentially banished from any type of middle-infield duty. I guess that's what he gets for outhitting Punto by 56 points while posting a better fielding percentage than either Punto or Cabrera at short.

In the previously linked rant, I noted that Punto had "kept his offensive game afloat to some degree with a respectable .319 on-base percentage, buoyed by an impressive walk total of 32," adding that he had drawn an impressive 10 walks in 33 July plate appearances at that point. Yet, I went on to opine that there was no way this would last, stating that "there's simply no reason for pitchers to throw him anything but strikes until he shows he can actually hit them with any type of authority." In 59 plate appearances since then, Punto has drawn four walks and posted a .276 on-base percentage. In his past 37 plate appearances he's drawn exactly one walk, good for a .250 on-base percentage.

Predicting this outcome doesn't make me any sort of masterful prognosticator. This turn of events was pretty easy to foresee, which makes it all the more frustrating that Gardenhire willfully elects to ignore basic facts in order to keep writing his favorite pet into the starting lineup. I am not easily driven to frustration with matters like this, but this team is in the middle of a pennant race and needs all the help it can get; Gardenhire's stubborn refusal to take Punto out of the starting lineup is driving me close to insanity. Benching Harris in favor of Punto against left-handed pitchers -- as Gardy has the past two nights -- is particularly inexcusable, considering that Harris is batting .306 against southpaws this year and holds a solid 787 lifetime OPS against them.

I'm not saying Harris is having a great year, and I'm not saying he's the answer at second. But he is at the very least a competent hitter and if he's starting over Punto, this lineup suddenly has only one real hole. Does this trade-off lead to a defensive downgrade? Sure, but the negative effects can be reduced when Harris plays on days that a fly ball pitcher is on the mound, and certainly no one is saying that he needs to be starting every game. I don't buy that Harris' difficulties turning a double play here and there are going to cost the Twins more than Punto's constant rally-killing at-bats.

If the Twins truly want to stop second base from being a liability before this season is over, their best bet might come in the form of Steve Tolleson or Mark Grudzielanek. Until one of those players is deemed ready for major-league action, though, Gardenhire must discontinue his habit of starting Punto there every single day. Punto has his merits, but he's better served as a utility player and Harris' performance has not warranted a permanent benching when the alternative options are taken into account.

Defenseless

I had already completed and posted yesterday's entry by the time Monday night's game came to its stunning and absurd conclusion, so nothing about that game was featured on this page yesterday. Yet, since that 14-13 loss is likely to go down as one of -- if not the -- most memorable of the season, and since last night's game was rather unremarkable, I figured I'd take the opportunity to vent a bit about the epic meltdown for today.

Clearly, there were numerous reasons the Twins managed to cough up their 10-run lead and lose a game they seemingly had wrapped up in the second inning, and they stretch well beyond the terrible call at home plate that led to the contest's final out. Nick Blackburn and the ragtag bunch of Triple-A relievers the Twins sent out to the mound all pitched terribly, which is particularly inexcusable considering the fact that they were facing a terrible offense in an extremely pitcher-friendly park. And while it's tough to blame the offense much in a game where they put 13 runs across, Twins hitters did fail to come through in some key late scoring opportunities.

But the weakness that stood out most to me in this abomination of a ballgame was the Twins defense. They sent out an incredibly weak fielding unit that did not feature arguably the team's three best defenders (Carlos Gomez, Joe Mauer and Joe Crede) and did feature a bunch of liabilities including Brendan Harris at third, Alexi Casilla at second, Delmon Young in left and Mike Redmond at catcher. They paid for it. The number of bloop hits, infield singles, missed catches and skipped throws to first base in this game was mind-blowing.

Justin Morneau had one of the finest offensive games of his career, but was a calamity on the field on Monday night. He missed an easy catch in foul territory and uncharacteristically failed to scoop up several short-hopped throws. Harris let more than one playable grounder skip past him at third. And Nick Punto had a hugely disappointing game at shortstop.

I know I just ranted about Punto last week so I hate to get on his case again, but I've grown increasingly disenchanted with his defensive ability at shortstop. I still think he's a heck of a defensive second baseman, but after having watched him man shortstop regularly over the past few weeks I've come to conclude that he simply doesn't have the arm to play the position. His range is good, particularly to his left, and he flashed that on a dazzling diving play he made behind second base in the game. But the number of popgun throws he made in that ballgame was maddening. His throws routinely bounced in front of Morneau at first, even on plays where Punto had time to set his feet. It was no isolated incident -- this is something I've picked up on several times this season. Say what you will about Harris' sub par range and poor defensive reputation, but the guy at least has the arm to make strong throws from the hole and to beat runners on weakly hit balls. I'm not seeing that from Punto, and as a result he has become a bit of a liability when playing at short.

There are a lot of factors that played into the Twins' collapse on Monday night, but many of those were fluke-ish in nature. Blackburn's method of cosntantly pitching to contact caught up with him in a big hurry. Bobby Keppel picked the wrong time to give up just his second home run in 70 innings this season. Jose Mijares, similarly, picked the wrong time to get solved by left-handed hitters for the first time this season. And the home plate umpire -- a Triple-A fill-in -- managed to put himself in the exact wrong position to view the final play at home plate. For the most part, these things just can't be helped; so goes the game of baseball.

But, the Ron Gardenhire set his team and his pitching staff up for trouble by sending out a roundly underwhelming defensive alignment. Prior to the season, I figured that one of the Twins' greatest strengths would be an improved defense led by the likes of Gomez, Crede, Mauer, Punto and Denard Span. But when all those guys are either not playing or being used at positions for which they are ill-suited, the Twins are in position for trouble. That's just what happened on Monday night.

Madness

As we move past the All-Star break and embark upon the baseball season's unofficial second half, local discussion will increasingly center on what the Twins can do to make up their four-game deficit in the AL Central standings and mount a late charge that results in a division championship. This club has some glaring weaknesses which will almost certainly need to be addressed if they are to make a run over the final two-and-a-half months of the season. Whether it's through trades, promotion or lineup tweaking, those who aren't helping this team win need to be replaced by better producers. One particular player on the roster has stood out to me more and more as a chief example of this: Nick Punto.

This isn't an easy article for me to write, because in all honesty I don't mind Punto. In the past, I have defended him against staunch criticism from local fans and writers. I was one of the seemingly few people who thought the contract he received from the Twins this past offseason was a reasonable one. I understand the value that a player with his skillset can bring to the table. He's versatile, he's got a good glove, he takes a patient approach at the plate, he is a consummate teammate and he hustles his ass off at all times. He's the type of player I enjoy watching.

But there's simply no way around the fact that he's been terrible this year. He entered the All-Star break with a .201 average, and over the first 63 games of the season he has managed a whopping four extra-base hits (all doubles), leading to a .234 slugging percentage. During his disastrous 2007 campaign, Punto hit .210 with a .271 slugging percentage.

Now, Punto has kept his offensive game afloat to some degree with a respectable .319 on-base percentage, buoyed by an impressive walk total of 32. In the month of July, Punto has worked 10 walks in 33 plate appearances, which has enabled him to reach base at an excellent .394 clip in spite of a paltry .130 batting average. Now, I will say that it simply blows my mind that opposing pitchers have thrown the ball out of the strike zone often enough for Punto to walk in nearly one-third of his plate appearances this month in spite of the fact that he's shown almost zero ability to hit the baseballl; but, I just can't believe it's going to last. There's no doubt that Punto has shown a keen eye at the plate and an ability to lay off pitches out of the zone, but there's simply no reason for pitchers to throw him anything but strike until he shows he can actually hit them with any type of authority.

If Punto were an elite shortstop who brought the type of defensive value that Adam Everett did in his prime, the situation could be viewed a bit differently. But Punto is merely a good defensive player, as both fielding metrics and observation will attest.

The troubling thing about Punto is that no matter how poor his performance gets, he will seemingly always maintain a starting role on this club. He has started in each of the Twins past 12 games and has basically been written into the starting lineup whenever he's been healthy enough to play over the past couple months. The recent recall of Alexi Casilla from the minors would seemingly indicate that Punto -- who has been starting at second base regularly -- could be nudged to the bench, but there've been indications that he'll now take the lion's share of playing time at shortstop.

Never mind that Brendan Harris -- who has been far from spectacular offensively in his own right -- holds an OPS that is more than 150 points higher than Punto's. Never mind that in the final game before the All-Star break, Harris smacked three extra-base hits, which is of course one less than Punto has managed in 223 plate appearances this year. Never mind that Harris has held his own defensively at shortstop and actually rates very similarly to Punto there according to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) this season, in an admittedly small sample size. In the eyes of Ron Gardenhire, it seems that Punto simply must be a regular player.

Gardenhire continually reminds us of his warped view of Punto. In a Sid Hartman column printed from Sunday's Star Tribune, Gardy rattled off a number of over-the-top quotes inflating Punto's value to a ballclub, intimating that he has been one of the team's most valuable players because of his defense and claiming that when "everybody else does their job in the lineup, Nick Punto is fantastic."

At some point, members of the Twins organization have to start wondering if this man is delusional. Under no circumstances is a .234 slugging percentage "fantastic." And even if that type of production were tolerable in a lineup where everyone else is hitting, the simple fact is that this lineup already contains a several black holes as is. Punto's contributions are not "fantastic" and they are not helping this team win -- far from it.

Yet, there doesn't seem to be much doubt that Punto will play out the rest of the year as a regular starter. I generally like Gardenhire as a manager for several reasons, but his tendency to run the team based on personal feelings and preferences is beyond maddening. It's downright unprofessional. The situation that is unfolding with Punto is tantamount to an unqualified employee in another line of work receiving undeserved promotions because he sucked up and worked his way into the good graces of his boss. I can't imagine that the majority of people in the Twins' front office or even players on the team have a hard time seeing that Punto is clearly better suited as a utility man at this point in time; at what point does an organizational desire to win games override Gardenhire's stubborn fixation?

The Twins need to get better production from the middle infield, specifically from second base, where they've gotten a miserable 519 OPS this year. I doubt that replacing Punto with Casilla at second is going to provide the type of meaningful jolt this team could use, and I'm nearly certain that inserting Casilla at second while sliding Punto to short to displace Harris -- who's been the team's only competent hitter at a middle-infield spot this year -- will not help the situation at all.

The Twins must look to the minors or to other major-league rosters in order to address this frustrating dilemma. And whoever they call upon to help must dislodge Punto from his starting spot. Even if that means that someone has to go forcefully remove the lineup pencil from Gardenhire's hands.

Position Analysis: Shortstop

Likely Starter: Nick Punto
2008 Stats: .284/.344/.382, 2 HR, 28 RBI

Punto must prove he can hold up as an everyday regular.

Potential Backups: Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert

Last year, the average major-league shortstop batted .272/.327/.391. That puts Nick Punto’s 2008 production right around average, and when his above-average defense is taken into account, he’s a quality starter at short.

Of course, Punto keeping his numbers at that comfortably average level is hardly a given. No one has forgotten about that 2007 season in which he painfully amassed 536 plate appearances while batting .210/.291/.271, posting a miserable 52 OPS+ and an astonishing -26.5 VORP. Punto’s paltry numbers were especially ugly that season because he posted them while playing a more offense-oriented position, but clearly if his production approaches that level this year even while playing shortstop he won’t cut it as a starting player.

Fortunately, there’s little reason to believe Punto has another 2007 in him. His .284/.344/.382 line from last season was extremely similar to his .290/.352/.373 line from 2006, and I think those stat lines set a fair baseline for his performance. Punto has to prove he can hold up as an everyday player over the course of the season, and it’s possible he’ll take a step back and post numbers slightly lower than the 06/08 variety, but I’m pretty bullish on his ability to adequately fill the role of starting shortstop and No. 8 hitter.

One thing to keep an eye on with Punto is his health. He has a style of play that is conducive to injuries (the head-first slides into first base being a great example) and has had a reputation as being rather injury-prone in the past. Punto’s done a pretty good job of staying healthy over the past couple seasons, but should he go down the Twins aren’t very strong on backup options. The offensive difference between Punto and Brendan Harris or Matt Tolbert might not be terribly large, but the defensive gap is considerable, which is a major concern at the most important infield position.

It seems clear that the main reason the Twins re-signed Punto and handed him the starting shortstop job is for his defensive ability. We’ve seen time and time again what he can do with the glove, so the key will be for him to maintain his defensive proficiency while hitting enough to avoid becoming a liability, the Twins should be set for serviceable production from the shortstop position.

Predicted 2009 Hitting Line for Punto: .270/.335/.370, 3 HR, 45 RBI

And Your 2009 Starting Shortstop Is...

Nick Punto.

The Twins inked Punto to a two-year deal yesterday, just after Ron Gardenhire had told reporters, “If we sign Nick Punto, he would be my starting shortstop.” Guess that takes care of that.

Punto’s contract will pay him $4 million over each of the next two seasons, with a $5 million team option for 2011 that can be negated with a $500K buyout. The deal seems reasonable and shouldn’t hurt the Twins much financially.

There is a large segment of fans out there who remain disenchanted with Punto after his dismal 2007 campaign and are no doubt disgusted to hear that he’ll be around for at least two more years with the promise of a spot in next season’s Opening Day lineup. Realistically, though, Punto is a pretty reasonable option. The free agent crop for shortstops is quite weak, and the J.J. Hardy/Yunel Escobar trade rumors were never very realistic. When it gets to the point that Jack Wilson is being looked at as a viable target, you know the market is bare.

I expressed my concerns about the defensive makeup of the left side of the Twins’ infield on Wednesday, and now the team can take comfort in the fact that they’ll at least have a steady defender at shortstop. It’s difficult to predict what kind of offensive performance Punto will put forth, but I find it likely that he'll hit enough to avoid being a total liability at a middle-infield position.

This signing ostensibly allows the Twins to turn their attention to third base, although there really isn’t a whole lot out there at this point. Adrian Beltre reportedly now has the Twins on his no-trade list, providing another obstacle in what already was a pretty unlikely trade scenario. The rest of the names being bandied about -- such as Garrett Atkins and Kevin Kouzmanoff -- are not particularly inspiring. Mark DeRosa is intriguing, but I question whether the Cubs are really shopping him and, if they are, whether the Twins have the right pieces to bring him in. I would not be at all surprised to see the Twins stick with a Brendan Harris/Brian Buscher platoon in 2009.

Rolling into 2009 with the same group of infielders as the they sported last year is a pretty questionable plan for the Twins given how flawed those players are, but I’m starting to think that -- for better or for worse -- management wants to go forward with the guys who brought the team within a game of the playoffs last year.

***

I’ll touch on yesterday’s Rule 5 draft very briefly. I don’t want to talk about it much because, frankly, I find the Rule 5 draft to be mind-boggling. Most of the decisions make no sense to me. The Twins had a chance to recoup a valuable asset when Eduardo Morlan remained available at their 14th pick, but they passed on him and instead selected the Yankees' Jason Jones, a 26-year-old with only 11 innings of experience above Double-A and a very mediocre minor-league track record. If the Twins didn’t want to take a risk on Morlan, that’s fine, but I don’t see any wisdom in bringing in a low-upside guy like Jones when the big-league bullpen is already inhabited by Philip Humber and Boof Bonser, both of whom figure to be much better relievers than Jones this year. The Twins must either plan on swinging a deal to bring Jones into the organization as a minor-leaguer, or else they don’t expect either Humber or Bonser to be around much longer. Or they saw a soft-tossing right-hander who throws strikes, got needlessly excited and threw logic out the window.

Compounding my confusion over the Rule 5 draft is the that opposing clubs passed over numerous viable prospects left off the Twins’ 40-man roster, and the only guy to get selected was Jose Lugo, a 24-year-old lefty reliever who posted a 4.04 ERA in Ft. Myers last year and who I’ve never heard of before.

Position Analysis: Shortstop

Likely Starter: Adam Everett

2007 Stats: .232/.281/.318, 2 HR, 15 RBI

The odds that Everett made solid contact with this ball are, sadly, not good.

Potential Backups: Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Brendan Harris

Adam Everett has never been much of a hitter, but even by his standards, the numbers he put during an injury-shortened 2007 campaign were pretty brutal. He was hitting just .232 in mid-June when he collided with Houston left fielder Carlos Lee while chasing a pop fly and broke his right leg.

The Twins acquired Everett, a .248/.299/.357 career hitter, as a free agent during the offseason to replace Jason Bartlett, who was sent to Tampa Bay as a part of the package that brought in Delmon Young. Everett has been one of the league's worst regular hitters over the past several seasons, and there is little reason to believe it's going to get any better with a change of scenery. Houston's ballpark, with its short left-field porch, is notoriously friendly to right-handed hitters and probably helped him attain his modest power (he averaged about eight homers per season in the four seasons prior to 2007). With the switch to a bigger park, Everett might lose some of that power, which is really his only offensive value. He doesn't hit for average, he doesn't take walks and he's not particularly speedy (he did swipe a career-high 21 bags in 2005, but he's 31 and coming off a leg injury).

What might surprise you is that Everett's career OPS, .656, is actually identical to the OPS the Twins got from their shortstop position last year. That's not to say that Everett is as good of a hitter as Bartlett -- he's not; Bartlett got off to a slow start last year and the team's overall SS stats were dragged down considerably by Nick Punto's utterly awful .136/.211/.160 line at the position. But the fact of the matter is that as long as he can hit somewhere close to his career average (which is far from a given), Everett won't provide a major offensive downgrade at shortstop. What he will almost certainly do is provide a major defensive upgrade.

The reason Everett has stuck around for so long, and the reason he was able to score a $2.8 million one-year deal from the Twins during the offseason, is that he is an absolute stud defensively. While he has never won a Gold Glove (just another mark against the award's legitimacy), nearly every defensive metric rates Everett as one of the best defensive players in all of baseball over the past five years. There may be some reason for concern that Everett's range will be reduced as a result of his '07 injury, but he's a steady shortstop who makes all the plays.

If Everett gets hurt or if his offensive contributions are unbearably bad, Nick Punto can step in and would probably provide a slight offensive upgrade and a slight defensive downgrade. I'll be more interested to see how Alexi Casilla does in Triple-A and whether he makes an appearance at the position. Casilla had a rough season in 2007, but he's still got a lot of talent and I still believe this team views him as their future shortstop.

Everett is going to be a hole in the lineup, and it's unlikely that even the most stellar defense will be able to fully offset the horrendous offensive numbers he is likely to produce, but one can't underestimate the value of a top-notch defender at a position as crucially important as shortstop.

Predicted 2008 Hitting Line for Everett: .240/.290/.345, 5 HR, 40 RBI

Position Analysis: Third Base

Likely Starter: Mike Lamb

2007 Stats: .289/.366/.455, 11 HR, 40 RBI

Lamb could well reverse a long-standing trend of ineptitude at third.

Potential Backups: Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Macri

Third base was an absolute disaster for the Twins last year,when the team got a collective .236/.308/.323 hitting line from the position thanks in large part to Nick Punto's historically bad season. Seeking to solve the long-standing issues at the position (the Twins haven't gotten an OPS over .712 from third base since Corey Koskie left following the '04 season), the Twins went out and signed free agent Mike Lamb to a multiyear contract.

Lamb should undoubtedly provide an instant upgrade. A .281/.339/.427 career hitter, Lamb is coming off a pair of very good seasons and at age 32 he isn't terribly old. The Cal State-Fullerton product spent his first four major-league seasons with the Rangers before traveling to Houston, where he has spent the past four years.

Lamb was a solid hitter with the Rangers, putting up OPS figures of .701, .760 and .765 in his first three seasons before having his fourth cut short by injury. Yet, he truly kicked his game up a notch after latching on with the Astros, where he posted OPS totals of .867, .703, .836 and .819 during his four-year tenure. The improvement is undoubtedly in part due to playing in the Astros' hitter-friendly park, but certainly the park tilts a lot more toward righty hitters than lefties, so that is probably not the sole explanation.

What I find most interesting about Lamb is his split against lefties and righties. While in Houston, Lamb was consistently shielded against southpaws, never making more than 60 plate appearances against them in a season. However, it is worth nothing that his career OPS against lefties is just 23 points lower than righties (.770 to .747). His numbers against left-handed pitchers have been sporadic throughout his career -- he's had seasons where he has hit them well and others where he struggled mightily against them. This all makes it very difficult to judge his proper usage. I'd say that based on the evidence it seems like there's a decent chance he could hold his own against southpaws this year, but if not, it would be nice to have a right-handed hitter who could slide in and start against tough lefties. Brendan Harris would be a nice candidate to do so.

Because he was held out of the lineup against left-handers so often, Lamb wasn't truly a full-time player in Houston, never amassing more than 421 plate appearances in a season. The Twins probably expect him to be something close to a full-time player this year, which he really hasn't been since his rookie year in Texas when he appeared in 138 games. Since Lamb's failure to reach 500 plate appearances since that rookie season has had more to do with managerial strategy than a lack of durability, I see little reason to believe he won't be capable of handling full-time duty.

The largest problem with Lamb is that he is very limited defensively, so we should expect to see Punto frequently taking over at third base as a late-game replacement, as well as getting occasional starts when a groundball pitcher like Francisco Liriano is on the mound. Harris can also play some third, and as I mentioned he'd make a good platoon partner. If Brian Buscher makes the roster, he'd likely see some action at the position as well, but my guess is that he would serve more as a left-handed bench bat and injury safeguard than a true backup third baseman, since his skill set is incredibly redundant with Lamb's.

Even if Lamb can't put up the type of outstanding numbers he did in three of his past four years with Houston, he's still likely to provide the Twins with a fairly massive upgrade at third base. For the first time in four years, it's looking like the hot corner will not be a major concern.

Predicted 2008 Hitting Line for Lamb: .280/.345/.430, 10 HR, 50 RBI

Position Analysis: Second Base

Likely Starter: Brendan Harris
2007 Stats: .286/.343/.434, 12 HR, 59 RBI

Harris will need to hit well enough to make up for his sub par defense.

Potential Backups: Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Matt Macri

Without question, second base is the most uncertain position I have previewed so far. For starters, while we can be certain that Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau will be the starters at catcher and first base barring injury, it is far from a sure thing that Brendan Harris will be playing second base on Opening Day. Ron Gardenhire has been rotating players at second base regularly throughout spring training and hasn't given much of a hint as to who might be the leading contender. Beyond that, while we can reasonably expect that Mauer and Morneau will both put up numbers this year that fall somewhere between their excellent 2006 and disappointing 2007 campaigns, it is far more difficult to predict what type of production the Twins will get from second base, regardless of who the starter is.

I have maintained since the start of camp that Harris is the most likely candidate to get the lion's share of at-bats for the Twins at second base. While his defense leaves much to be desired, Harris was strong offensively with the Rays last year, and was an important component of the trade that sent Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan to Tampa Bay during the offseason. There is even more pressure for Harris to step up and be a productive starter at second after Gardenhire's revelation that he views Jason Pridie, the third player to come over in the trade along with Harris and Delmon Young, as a "role player" rather than a potential starter. If it turns out that the Twins gave up a young arm with ace potential, a starting shortstop and a top closer prospect for one starter and two backups, the Rays trade could end up looking like a flop, particularly if Young doesn't make major strides this year. All of which is to say that the general manager Bill Smith has got to be pushing for Harris to start and succeed.

So if Harris is the starter, as I suspect, what type of production can be expected? Last year Harris posted a .777 OPS which was solidly in line with the AL average for second basemen (.755) and would be a tremendous improvement over the .640 OPS the Twins got from the position last year. At 27 years old, there's plenty of reason to believe that Harris could repeat that type of production, or perhaps even improve on it. He was a .294/.365/.458 hitter in the minors, and has always displayed fairly decent plate discipline, so it's probably fair to say that the guy is a legitimate major-league hitter.

What is alarming is the fact that, since being drafted by the Cubs back in 2001, Harris has shuttled between six different organizations, and prior to last year had failed to appear in more than 20 games in a season with the same big-league club despite continually posting solid numbers in Triple-A. Clearly, these teams are seeing something they don't like. Maybe it's his defense. Whatever the case, it gives reason for concern. Still, Harris played in 137 games for Tampa Bay last year and hit consistently all year (with the exception of a rough August).

Of course, as long as Nick Punto is on the roster and Gardenhire is the skipper, No. 8 will get at-bats. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Punto won the starting job out of spring training, but with the abhorrent .210/.291/.271 hitting line he put up last year over a ridiculous 536 plate appearances, I think the manager is going to have a hard time writing Punto's name in the lineup too often regardless of his affection for the scrappy little tail-battler. The good news is that Punto basically has to be better at the plate than he was last year, and he remains an excellent defensive player who can sub in for the range-less Harris as a late-game replacement while also filling in as a starter from time to time.

Meanwhile, Alexi Casilla seems to be the guy that everyone forgot. Casilla was one of the organization's top prospects following an excellent 2006 campaign that saw him start in Single-A Ft. Myers and finish in Minnesota, but many fans seem to have soured on him after a poor 2007 season during which he was mediocre in Triple-A and Punto-like in Minnesota. It was a very tough year to be sure, but we can't forget the talent that Casilla -- still only 23 -- possesses. He could be a factor at some point this year, although I think it's more likely that he'd do so at shortstop.

Predicted 2008 Hitting Line for Harris: .275/.340/.450, 14 HR, 70 RBI

Sticking Up For the Little Guy (Apparently)

First of all, I'd like to send out some props to everyone who has continued to stop by this blog regularly as this disappointing season winds down with little excitement. Traffic has remained relatively steady here in the final month of the season, which I really wouldn't have expected. The fact that people are still stopping by and commenting tells me that they're still following the Twins even though the team has been out of the race for quite a while now. I'm impressed with that. In particular, I'd like to thank everybody who commented on yesterday's post. There were a lot of great thoughts added that illustrated a variety of valid viewpoints, and I think it made for a very interesting discussion.

With that said, I think a lot of people were misinterpreting my position on the Nick Punto situation. To be clear, I don't think Punto should be starting over Alexi Casilla or Brian Buscher for the rest of this season, and I don't think Punto is an ideal choice to start at second base next year. But seeing the way Casilla has played both in the minors and majors this year, how can anybody really argue that he's ready to step in and be a starter on a contending major-league team as things currently stand?

On his blog over at ESPN.com (Insider required), Rob Neyer wrote yesterday about the ridiculousness of Ron Gardenhire handing Punto a starting job next season. At the end of his post, Neyer linked to my article from yesterday and labeled me a "dissenting voice" among the chorus of Twins fans who have been very openly critical, which seems to indicate that Neyer thinks I'm a proponent of Gardy's decision.

To be clear, I'm not supportive of the idea that a guy who has hit the way Punto has this year should be handed a starting job the following season. I just think there are a lot of people overreacting to the news. As I wrote in the comments section yesterday, there are a few reasons why I would be able to tolerate Punto being named the starting second baseman at the outset of the 2008 season: 1) he will be moving to a more important position where his defensive skills will be emphasized and his offensive inadequacies will be less egregious; 2) he is bound to improve at least a little at the plate; and 3) there are no clearly superior options at this point in time. Many people seem to be so blinded by hatred for Punto that they can't help but overlook the fact that Casilla has shown this year that he could probably use some more time in the minors.

In his blog post, Neyer claims that Gardenhire is making a big mistake and compares the situation to the Juan Castro/Jason Bartlett fiasco from last season:

What's amazing to me is that Gardenhire has made this exact mistake before, with Bartlett at shortstop -- remember Juan Castro? -- and he seems absolutely determined to do it again with Casilla and Punto.

In my mind, the situations just don't match up. Last year, Bartlett was a 26-year-old who had hit better than .330 for two straight years in Triple-A. Right now, Casilla is 23, and beyond his brutal results with the big-league club, he did not perform very well in Triple-A this season. It was basically now-or-never for Bartlett last year, whereas Casilla has plenty of time to develop (and has given us plenty of reason to believe he still has developing to do).

I apologize if this post just seems like a reiteration of the things I said yesterday, but I wanted to make my position clear so people don't think I'm some sort of gung-ho Punto supporter. I fully share Aaron Gleeman's opinion that Casilla and Buscher should both be starting regularly for the rest of the season, and I was very annoyed to see neither of them in Gardenhire's lineup last night. However, if Casilla continues to struggle through the rest of the season and again in spring training next year, I really don't see why the notion of starting him back Triple-A in 2008 is all that absurd.

Slowey Sizzles; Punto Starting in '08?

I was very happy to see Kevin Slowey piece together a terrific outing last night. Granted, he was going against a punchless Texas lineup (one which did not include Hank Blalock, Ian Kinsler, Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Sammy Sosa), but it was nonetheless encouraging to see Slowey rack up seven strikeouts (a personal high in his young major-league career) while holding the Rangers to one run on four hits and zero walks over six innings.

Unfortunately, Slowey did not earn a win in spite of his outstanding effort, as another poor relief outing from Juan Rincon put the Rangers in front just one inning after Slowey had left with a 2-1 lead. The Twins later ended up winning when Kinsler (who had entered as a sub) dropped a Jason Bartlett fly ball and allowed Lew Ford to score and seal a 5-4 victory for the Twins.

Now, to change course a bit. According to La Velle E. Neal III, Ron Gardenhire announced yesterday that Nick Punto is currently slated to be the Twins' starting second baseman at the outset of the 2008 season. Here's what the Twins' manager had to say:

“ We already know what we’ve got with Nick,'’ Gardy said. “We know we’ve got a player. And (Alexi Casilla) has all the tools in the world. Nothing’s a given. You have to go out and play. But if we were to start right now I would say Nick would have a head up on him, believe me there. I know what he can do, catch the ball and make all the plays. So he’s got a lead going into spring training, as far as I’m concerned.

“I hope he comes out and has a good spring. I like him in my lineup, somewhere. He makes things exciting. But he’s got to play. Got to come back and rebound, we all know that.'’

Considering my constant ranting lately about Casilla being held out of the lineup, you might think that I'd be furious about this development. But, to be honest, I'm not.

Casilla has been absolutely terrible this year, and there's no masking that fact. He didn't have a particularly good year in Rochester, where he hit just .269/.354/.345, and he's looked completely overmatched in the majors, hitting just .241/.274/.282. In 184 plate appearances with the Twins this year, Casilla has struck out 25 times while managing just eight walks, and in the meantime he has committed countless mistakes in the field and on the basepaths.

At 23, Casilla is young and still boasts plenty of upside, which is why I continue to believe that he should be playing almost every day for the remainder of the season in these meaningless September games. However, once we move on to the beginning of the 2008 season and the games matter again, the manager needs to put the best players on the field, and at this point in time, Punto looks like a better overall option at second base than Casilla. That could very well change between now and next April, and if it does, I hope that Gardy will adjust his plans accordingly.

Punto's 2007 season has been historically bad from an offensive standpoint, and it seems odd that he would be rewarded for such a feat with a starting job next season. Yet, if it comes down to him and Casilla, right now Punto has to be considered the better player solely on the merits of his defensive ability.

Many would no doubt argue that a guy who hits the way Punto has this season is a liability at any position -- that's true. But is it really fair to expect him to keep hitting this way? Punto has hit rock bottom this year, and I certainly expect him to get his numbers back up toward respectability next season. Does that mean I think he's an ideal starter? By no means, and I'd love it if Casilla could step up and establish himself as this team's starting second baseman of the future. Unfortunately, he hasn't done that, and nothing that he's done this season has really indicated to me that he's going to be ready to take over at the beginning of the 2008 season.

Can't Catch A Break

It seemed certain that the Twins would end their four-game losing streak last night when they scored six runs in the top of the ninth inning to break a 4-4 tie against the White Sox in Chicago. Unfortunately, Julio DePaula came in and gave up five runs without recording an out, and Joe Nathan surrendered another run allowing the Sox to tie the game at 10-10.

A.J. Pierzynski eventually drove in the winning run with a single in the 13th inning.

The Twins' offense produced 20 hits, but 18 of them were singles. Meanwhile, six of Chicago's 19 hits went for extra bases. If you're looking for a quick answer as to why the White Sox won the game, look no further.

* One thing that has greatly irritated me about about Ron Gardenhire lately has been his unwillingness to play third baseman Brian Buscher against lefties. Last night, Buscher got a rare start, and in the eighth inning southpaw side-armer Mike Myers came in to pitch for the White Sox. Lo and behold, Buscher worked a 3-1 count and then singled to right against Myers. The hit ended being irrelevant because Chris Heintz grounded into an inning-ending double play in the following at-bat, but Buscher's hit supports my belief that he should at least get a chance to face some lefties in the majors.

* La Velle E. Neal III had a great article in the Star Tribune yesterday chronicling Nick Punto's unintentional quest to become the first player since 1991 to bat under .200 while qualifying for the batting title. The last guy to do it was Rob Deer, who hit .179 over 448 at-bats with the Tigers but also hit 25 homers and drove in 64 runs, which obviously trump Punto's totals of one and 22. When you take into account Punto's total lack of power and the fact that most guys who have hit so poorly have done it in less of an offensive era, an argument could easily be made that Punto is amidst the single worst offensive season in baseball history.

Here was my "favorite" part of Neal's article:

Punto's immediate goal is to make the most of September -- Gardenhire said Punto
will not be benched -- then get to work on a hitting plan that he hopes will
breed success in 2008.

Great management, Gardy. Let's keep wasting at-bats on a guy who's having arguably the worst offensive season of all time in order to "breed success in 2008" -- when he will almost certainly be in a utility role -- rather than giving at-bats to younger and more talented players who actually have a chance to contribute as regulars next season.

* On that happy note, I'll add that the motherboard on my laptop is fried, and so the only computer access I'll have over the next several days will be at work or on my roommates' laptops. That may impede my ability to post regularly, but I'll try and keep up.

I've come to realize that as much as I like the way Apple's products function, they just aren't very well built. I've had my iBook for three years and I've had to replace the hard drive, the keyboard, and now the motherboard twice. I also had an iPod Mini which lasted only a year before succumbing to battery issues. I can assure you, these problems haven't arisen because I treat the devices poorly... I always find something else to throw at the wall when I see Punto's name in the starting lineup.

Wakeup Call?

It's been an awful long wait it seems, but the Twins finally broke out of their offensive funk in the last night's game, winning 11-4 and managing two home runs, their first since the end of July. Of course, it's good news that the offense broke out, but it's unfortunate that the "breakout" game had to come against such a pathetic batch of pitchers. Instead of being a breakout game, it seems that the offense did precisely what it was supposed to do: beating up on bad Kansas City pitching and giving Johan Santana his first victory in some time.

The best thing about last night's victory, offense-wise, was that the Twins 3-through-6 hitters, who had been struggling, had a much better game. Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter went a combined 10-for-20 with eight RBI, six runs scored and five extra-base hits, including home runs from Cuddyer and Hunter (and one from Morneau that was incorrectly called back). Considering the recent struggles of the Twins' most important bats, it's good to see them come alive even if it is against the soft-tossing Odalis Perez.

The lowlight in the victory was no surprise: Nick Punto. He did have a double, a walk and a much-touted sacrifice, but he also made two poor plays in the field, including an embarrassingly bad throwing error. Considering his average is still at .210, there isn't much of an excuse to put him in the second spot in the lineup. While Ron Gardenhire made a good move in putting Jason Bartlett in the leadoff spot instead of Jason Tyner, he followed it with a boneheaded move by not leaving Punto at the bottom of the order. Alexi Casilla is still pretty raw, but I'd rather see Casilla in front of Mauer if need be. Of course, it would be smarter just to move Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, and Hunter up a spot and leave the 7-9 spots as weak as they have been before. If Punto is going to be an atrocious hitter, the least he can do is field and be left in a position where he gets the least at-bats possible. It's the fault of his manager for not making that so.

As for the pitching, Santana surprisingly lacked dominant stuff against the Royals offense, going six innings and allowing eight hits, two walks, and two runs while striking out six. The six strikeouts aren't a bad number, but allowing ten baserunners is very unlike the typical second-half Santana. Hopefully, he starts to be his thoroughly dominant self very soon, but even last night's Santana is still pretty great.

While last night's victory wasn't exactly a convincing wakeup game for the offense, it may have gotten some important bats going and it was another needed victory against a weak opponent. Today, Matt Garza takes on recently acquired right-hander Kyle Davies in the series finale. Davies wasn't particularly great in Atlanta, as evidenced by his 5.76 ERA in the NL, and his first start in the AL wasn't great either, as he allowed five runs in three innings to the Yankees. Davies is homer-prone, as he has allowed 13 home runs in 89 innings, and he walks way too many, as evidenced by his ugly 61/47 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This is another starter the Twins should have success against, if they are patient enough. If they do, then maybe last night really was a rallying cry. Too bad for Twins fans that once there are reasons for optimism, the team goes and makes a ridiculous move like this.

Jay-Bombed

It was a rough night for Johan Santana in Toronto. By surrendering four home runs to the powerful Blue Jays lineup, Santana gave up a season-high six earned runs while failing to complete six innings for just the second time this year. In total, Santana gave up six runs on seven hits while walking two and striking out four over five innings of work. It was his worst outing of the season, and of course it ended up as a loss because, even though Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter combined for four runs on three homers, the rest of the offense was completely ineffective and the Twins would fall 6-4 in the series opener.

* Yesterday, we added a "Bottom of the Barrel" feature to our sidebar to track the ineptitude of the bottom third of the Twins' lineup, since it seems we have been commenting on the poor performance of the Twins' 7-9 hitters almost daily as of late. When I first calculated the results yesterday, the three lineup spots had produced a .192 average and .269 slugging percentage since the All-Star break. Last night's trio went 3-for-11 to raise those numbers slightly, but still the game produced yet another shining example of how utterly worthless the bottom of the lineup has been.

The return of Rondell White in the No. 7 spot predictably did nothing to boost the lineup, as he went 0-for-4. Nick Punto had a pair of singles and Jason Tyner had one as well; however, despite the three hits, the 7-9 hitters still managed to make 11 outs in 11 at-bats thanks to some hideous baserunning.

In the third inning, Punto hit a one-out single, but was caught stealing during the next at-bat. In the fifth, Tyner singled and then Punto hit a grounder that snuck through the infield thanks to a hit-and-run play by the Twins putting Toronto shortstop Royce Clayton out of position. Tyner moved up to third and Punto checked in at first on the play, and the Twins had runners on the corner with no outs, trailing by one run. It looked like the start of a 2006-style "piranha rally," but this year those have been hard to come by and last night was no different. The Twins managed to get zero runs in the inning, as Tyner and Punto both ran into outs on the base-paths on the very next play. Tyner foolishly tried to score from third on a sharp grounder to first by Luis Castillo, and was retired after a short run-down. During Tyner's misadventure, Punto tried to advance from first to third, and he was easily thrown out at third base after Tyner was tagged out.

The Twins entered the ninth inning down by two runs, and Hunter led off the inning with a double. He then moved up to third on a pop-out by Jason Kubel, giving the Twins a runner on third base with one out. And yet, it felt like the game was essentially over because those 7-9 spots were due up. True to form, White struck out and Tyner hit a lazy fly ball to center to end the game.

As you can see, the .200 average and .270 slugging percentage don't even begin to tell how hapless the 7-9 spots in the Twins' lineup have been over the past couple weeks (and for the majority of the season). Here's something to keep in mind: the average major-league player hits around .265 and slugs about .420. Think about how much of a difference it would make to stick even a couple average hitters into the bottom of that lineup.

* Last week I wrote about two relatively simple moves the Twins could make to improve their fledgling offense. One of those moves was calling up Brian Buscher from Rochester to replace Punto as the regular third baseman. In the next seven games after I wrote the article, Buscher went just 4-for-23 (.174) and saw his season average at Rochester drop from .347 to .297. However, between the two games of Rochester's double-header yesterday, Buscher went 5-for-8 with a double, three runs scored and an RBI, bringing his average back up to .321. Meanwhile, Punto has played in every single game since the All-Star break for the Twins and has batted .250/.275/.375 with five strikeouts and one walk.

* Indeed, you have to wonder how many more gaffes Punto can make while maintaining his everyday spot in the lineup. The aforementioned poor hitting line does not tell the whole story; Star Tribune blogger Howard Sinker wrote earlier this week about the numerous mistakes the third baseman has been making in every aspect of the game:

Nick Punto’s .214 batting average is troubling enough, but he’s also managing to make mistake after mistake in other parts of his game — the hustle and defense parts that are supposed to make up for his lack of hitting. Sunday, he failed to tag up at second on Jeff Cirillo’s sacrifice fly and has to return to second when the ball was caught. Saturday, he got picked off second base. Friday, he made a throwing error that allowed the Angels their first run, a throw he never should have tried to make. Thursday afternoon, against Detroit, his was timid on a ground ball that went into left field. That’s four blunders in four games.

You can add last night's costly baserunning mistake to that list. I have always liked Punto and by no means am I trying to demean him with all this, but his play has been absolutely atrocious and he looks like a player who has totally lost his confidence. The fact that he continues to be penciled into the starting lineup each night is unbelievable -- the Twins need to find a way to get him back into his utility role where he can actually be of some value.

Proof

Yesterday's game was only the latest piece of evidence in a growing theory: no matter how many times the Twins get lucky or their big offensive stars have big games to go along with good pitching, none of it will be enough to overcome the massive black hole in the bottom of the horizon. If you speak in the metaphorical language of astrophysics, when the offense reaches the event horizon, there is no looking back.

Who exactly makes up this "black hole" in the lineup? Yesterday, it was quite obvious. The trio of Darnell McDonald, Luis Rodriguez, and Nick Punto probably wouldn't knock fear into a softball pitcher in the local rec league, let alone a major-league hurler. It's true, they went a combined 2-for-7 with a walk, which isn't exactly horrible, but their combined contribution this year is beyond atrocious. You begin with McDonald, who is hitless with a walk in 9 at-bats so far (and a total of 5-for-37 in his MLB career); add Rodriguez, who is 18-for-96 (.188) this year; and finish off with Punto's 67-for-313 (.214) this season. You end up with a hitter, who in 418 at-bats this year, has a .203 average with three home runs, 27 RBI, 14 stolen bases, and 52 walks. That's a hitter with no power, some speed, and some patience. Realistically, you might say you have a one-tool player if not for Punto's defense. Also, as Ubelmann points out on SBG, these hitters (including Garrett Jones and Jason Tyner) hit .179/.258/.250 over the weekend series against the Angels in 31 plate appearances.

Ignoring those seven through nine hitters who are going to do little or nothing, your left with all the pressure on the other hitters. Yesterday, with the inconsistent Jason Kubel going hitless two days after his offensive break-out (sounds just like the team), the pressure was on the remaining five hitters. With Jason Bartlett and Jeff Cirillo being nothing special and Michael Cuddyer being on the DL, the pressure to score runs fell almost entirely into the laps of three players: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Torii Hunter. Reason the Twins lost yesterday? Those hitters went a combined 3-for-12 with one RBI. This is, of course, not in any way to lay the blame on the Twins' best hitters; instead, I am merely pointing out that when these guys don't drive in run after run, the offense tends to do very little, considering the talent around them. This isn't exactly new, as it's been happening all year and most fans are aware of it, but its reached a nexus of sorts in the last week after Cuddyer's injury, when we've seen lineups including Tyner and Jones alongside Punto and McDonald.

With such a huge hole in the lineup, when the pitching isn't pitch perfect, the Twins tend to lose. It's almost funny that announcers Dick and Bert continue to speak about how the pitching needs to continue to be perfect in order to win while praising the Twins' lineup. On this blog, we've pushed the need for a trade, but nothing seems to be coming up and that just makes the situation more critical. Starter Matt Garza had 15 scoreless innings this year (minus one unearned run) before yesterday, when he gave up four runs, three earned, in 5 1/3 innings. Garza wasn't great, but you could easily sense that after his last game, in which he lost despite not giving up an earned run in seven innings against the Tigers, he knew he couldn't rely on his offense, affecting his control early on as the pressure on himself showed immediately.

The Twins naturally have a solution to all this: the great Rondell White was activated from the disabled list yesterday, with Garrett Jones being sent down . Sadly, after all his injury problems this year, it seems doubtful that White will be a major contributor. The good news for Twins fans is he cannot be any worse than Tyner, Punto, McDonald, Jones, or any other of the replacement-level bats the Twins have thrown into the bottom third of the lineup this season. Lets hope White brings some spark to the batting order to support Johan Santana tonight, who faces off against Shaun Marcum and the Blue Jays.