In the Win Column

Spring training is in full swing and the Twins have finally won a game, defeating the Red Sox 8-2 yesterday in the third consecutive meeting between the two clubs. Interestingly, after struggling to score runs through their first three exhibition games, the Twins managed to bring eight men across the plaet on a day where they trotted out this intimidating starting lineup:

1. Denard Span, CF
2. Nick Punto, 2B
3. Michael Cuddyer, RF
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Jason Kubel, LF
6. Mike Redmond, C
7. Brian Buscher, 3B
8. Jon Knott, DH
9. Adam Everett, SS

Knott homered for the Twins, while Everett and Cuddyer chipped in with doubles. Livan Hernandez got the start and tossed two innings, giving up a double to David Ortiz and a home run to Mike Lowell on an 83 mph fastball.

Here are some notes on various topics as we work our way toward Opening Day:

* The battle for the starting center field job is one of this spring's most interesting storylines. Yesterday, Span got the start in center field and went 1-for-5. Pridie replaced Cuddyer in right field midway through the game and went 2-for-2 with a two-run single and a stolen base. Gomez sat the game out and is 1-for-6 this spring.

* Several Twins fans have been taking guilty pleasure in the fact that Johan Santana was roughed up in his spring debut with the Mets on Friday afternoon. I find this somewhat puzzling. Torii Hunter seems to get a free pass from everyone around here, despite the fact that his behavior on his way out of Minnesota was questionable at best. The majority of fans I talk to seem to wish him well in Los Angeles, and I have little doubt that he will receive a standing ovation in the Metrodome when he steps into the batter's box on March 31.

I'm sure there are people who disagree with me, but I thought that Santana acted with class and composure this winter. While it was relatively clear that he wanted out, Santana never demanded a trade outright, nor did he ever really speak ill of the organization. It was doubtlessly frustrating for him to see his name tossed around in so many different rumors during the offseason, but for the most part he kept his mouth shut (something Hunter could never seem to do) and kept to himself.

I respect Santana immensely, as a player and as a person, and I wish him all the best in New York. Despite his shaky first outing, I fully expect that he will find great success with the Mets.

* Reading this article in yesterday's Star Tribune was pretty painful. Here's what Ron Gardenhire had to say about Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young:

Gomez led off the first inning with a single against Red Sox starter Jon Lester and stole second on the next pitch.

In his next two plate appearances, Gomez came up with runners on base and took some tenacious swings that left Gardenhire chuckling. "I really think he swung so hard that the bat broke before the ball got there," Gardenhire said. "... He's a little bit of a free spirit."

Gardenhire met with Gomez on Saturday and encouraged him to keep being aggressive. "He took it to heart," Gardenhire said. "He looks at me and says, 'Boy, I like this guy.'

"He was hacking; nothing wrong with that. I like the way he plays. He's pretty fast, and he can be pretty exciting."

Young swung at more pitches last year (1,484) than any player in baseball. But he took the first six pitches he saw for balls Saturday, drawing a first-inning walk that loaded the bases, and then ripped a run-scoring single in the second inning.

Instead of pleading for more patience, as Young's former team did in Tampa Bay, the Twins have asked him to stay aggressive.

"All the on-base percentage [stats] and all those things -- he's dangerous when he lets that thing fly and gets fastballs," Gardenhire said. "We're going to want him to swing this year more than taking a lot of pitches and watching them go by.

"And I think he'll be more than willing to let them fly."

In my mind, Jacque Jones and -- to a lesser extent -- Hunter never really reached their full potential as Twins, because they were free swingers who never developed any plate discipline. Apparently the Twins didn't learn a lesson, because Gardenhire doesn't seem to have any interest in preaching patience to Gomez or Young, both of whom have displayed poor on-base skills throughout their careers thus far. This is unfortunate. I'm not trying to say that a player can't be great without the ability to take walks -- Kirby Puckett and Tony Oliva come to mind as guys who did just that -- but boy, does it help... particularly for a guy like Gomez who projects to hit at the top of the order.

The Blame Game

Having passed his physical and reached agreement on a contract that will make him the richest pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana is now officially a member of the New York Mets. In return, the Twins have received a package of prospects that is almost unanimously being labeled as underwhelming. This development has Twins fans desperately seeking a deserving party upon which to pin blame in a situation that seemingly has not been handled very well. I've seen numerous articles leveling scathing criticism against everyone from Carl Pohlad to Bill Smith to Santana himself. My thinking on the subject is that while several people probably could have acted in a way that would have led to better results, no one was completely out of line here. The Twins were put in an unfortunate situation and the result is that they've lost their franchise player for a relative pittance. It's a shame, but I don't think anyone is specifically at fault.

First, let's talk about Santana. Fans seemed to have turned on him for the way he acted during this debacle, claiming that he abused his leverage and backed the Twins into a corner with his self-imposed deadline. We may never know how Santana truly felt or what he actually said behind closed doors, but reading between the lines I think it's fair to say that he didn't particularly want to pitch in Minnesota. It seems clear that Santana's preference was to move into a larger market to showcase himself, and ideally I think he wanted to move to the National League where the lineups are weaker and where he'll be able to bat. This made the Mets a natural fit.

As a fan of the Twins and a proud resident of Minnesota, the thought that Santana was anxious to move elsewhere is somewhat hurtful. But is it really a reason to hold resentment against him? If his preference is to pitch in New York, then he's well within his rights to try and arrange it. Some have accused him of being disloyal for trying to force his way out from a team that helped him become the pitcher he is today, but he did provide the Twins with five years of phenomenal performance, and he was never an open distraction in the clubhouse or unfriendly toward fans. If he wanted to move on, I think we owe it to him to respect his wishes. He was patient throughout the entire offseason, and I don't really see how he is out of line for wanting a resolution now that we're weeks away from Spring Training.

Now, on to Pohlad. In the wake of this trade, the wealthy Twins owner has been painted by numerous scribes as a greedy monster who coaxed a stadium out of the fans only to pocket his earnings and let the team's stars walk when they become expensive. I am far from a Pohlad defender, but I find this criticism to be unfair, at least when applied to the Santana situation.

For the reasons I mentioned above, I'm skeptical that Santana would have signed an extension with the Twins even if they had made an offer that rivaled the contract the Mets gave him. But even if he would have, would it really have been wise for the Twins to hand him such a contract? Signing pitchers to long-term deals is always a risky venture, and committing over $130 million to a guy who will soon enter his 30s could be suicide for a middle-market team like the Twins. Perhaps Santana is worth $25 million as long as he is the best pitcher in baseball, but will he remain the best pitcher in baseball as he ages into his mid-30s? Maybe, but that is far from guaranteed. I think that the Twins' decision not to extend Santana has less to do with a lack of financial resources and more to do with intelligent baseball management. And, in fairness, the team did just sign Justin Morneau to a six-year mega-deal, so it's not as if Pohlad has slammed the wallet shut.

Finally, many have focused their criticism on the general manager Smith for failing to get a package that includes even one true top prospect for Santana. I've frequently seen it written that Smith "overplayed his hand," when negotiating with the Yankees and Red Sox, only to eventually have them pull their offers. Yet, I can nearly guarantee that had Smith accepted one of those team's offers back in December (assuming the reported offers were legitimately on the table), there would be droves of fans and analysts criticizing Smith for acting too quickly and lacking the patience to create a bidding war which could force a better package out of one of the teams. Smith took a risk by playing the waiting game, and in the end it didn't pay off, but I hardly think one can hold it against him.

I'm more than a little disappointed by the package received for Santana, but I can't say I'm angry at any particular person about it. There's just nowhere to justifiably point a finger. The Twins made a competitive offer, Santana wanted to move on, and so Smith made the best deal he could. As I said when analyzing the trade last Wednesday, I'm not entirely sure that trading Santana for this package will ultimately be more beneficial to the team than keeping him for another year and collecting draft picks as free agent compensation, but I have to trust that the Twins see something in these Mets prospects.

A Cold Day in Minnesota

The Twins have been known to surprise us before. Who would have thought that the prospects received back in the Frank Viola trade would help push them to a World Series championship just two years later? Who could have known that the prospects brought over in the Chuck Knoblauch deal would help form the foundation for putting them back into contention after a horrible dry spell in the late '90s? How could anyone have predicted that two of the relatively unknown pitchers received back in the A.J. Pierzynski trade would transform into elite All-Stars, while the third became an important member of the rotation?

Let's face it, the Twins have a track record of success when trading away star players amidst their primes, even if the results initially seem heavily skewed in favor of the other team. Maybe that will be the case with yesterday's deal that likely sends Johan Santana to the Mets in return for four unspectacular prospects. Unfortunately, that seems rather unlikely.

According to reports, the Twins made a final offer to Santana for five years and $100 million. Santana turned the offer down, and he and his agent pressured the Twins to make a decision as soon as possible. With the Red Sox and Yankees both reportedly having backed off with their offers, Bill Smith was forced to take what he could get from the Mets. It ended up being a package that includes center fielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber.

All that's left is for Santana to pass a physical and for the Mets to reach an agreement with the left-hander on a contract extension for the deal to become official. Since Santana is in tip-top shape and the Mets have the fiscal resources to give him the kind of money he's seeking, it seems very likely that this deal is as good as done.

There was really no way the Twins were going to get equal value for the best pitcher in baseball, and each of the rumored offers from the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets was underwhelming in its own way. Yet, almost each of those deals included at least one player who could be considered a relatively sure bet to produce at the major-league level, a quality which this Mets package lacks. Perhaps it is unfair to compare this package to the rumored superior deals from the Red Sox and Yankees (or even the rumored superior deals from the Mets that included Fernando Martinez and/or Mike Pelfrey) and to accuse Smith of overplaying his hand. After all, there were continual rumblings that Yankees' GM Brian Cashman was unwilling to part with Phil Hughes, and many believed that Boston's only real interest in this sweepstakes was keeping Santana out of the Bronx. Additionally, it is entirely possible that the Mets were never truly considering parting ways with Martinez or Pelfrey. Still, it seems awfully hard to believe that this is the best offer the Twins officially received for Santana, and it's not clear to me that this course of action will be more beneficial to the team than simply hanging onto Santana for another year and taking the draft picks when he departs for free agency following the 2008 season.

In fairness, the players received from the Mets in this deal aren't bad. There's just a lot of questions surrounding them. I first discussed the players involved in the deal a couple weeks ago, when Joe Christensen first reported that the Mets had made the offer. When breaking down the players, I noted that I'm higher on Gomez than most, but that he will need to overcome his alarming plate discipline issues and gain some power to develop into a solid major-league starter. Gomez is a superb athlete with the ability to steal 60+ stolen bases and he has the tools to become an excellent defender in center field with more experience. He could be a star, but he has a long way to go. He was overwhelmed in the majors last year and would likely start this season in Rochester.

I imagine that the Twins view Guerra as the type of pitcher who could eventually transform into a Santana-type talent. At age 18, he has already developed a plus change-up, which will likely become more effective as he adds velocity to his fastball. But there are major concerns. His breaking pitches aren't strong, he's already experienced some shoulder issues, and he still doesn't turn 19 until April, which makes him fairly difficult project. Scouts view Guerra as the type of pitcher who could develop into a star in the major leagues, but he has so many hurdles yet to overcome before that point that it's very difficult to factor him into the Twins' plans, short-term or long-term.

The other two pitchers in the deal, Mulvey and Humber, don't project as anything more than middle-of-the-rotation starters, but then again they also seem like the types of players that could end up surprising us, given the Twins' history. Mulvey is probably being underrated by some -- he has had success at each stop in the minors and reached Triple-A last year in just his first professional season. Unfortunately, it's difficult to get excited about him because he lacks a dominating arsenal. Humber was a terrific pitcher in college and a first-round draft pick, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2005 and has been unspectacular since then. Humber does know how to pitch, however, and he's a guy I could see making a name for himself in the Twins' bullpen.

In order for this deal to really work out for the Twins, Gomez and Guerra need to take some significant strides and make good on their considerable potential. Mulvey and Humber aren't likely to separate themselves from the numerous solid pitching prospects already littering the Twins' system, but if they can, it would certainly be an added bonus and would take the heat off of Smith in what appears to be a situation that could have been handled a lot better. The odds aren't necessarily stacked against these four players becoming productive contributors to the Twins, but the fact that the package lacks a relative sure bet like Hughes or Ellsbury, or even Martinez or Jon Lester, makes the swap a rather disappointing one from the Twins' standpoint. Smith has traded an exclamation point for several question marks, and in dealing Santana he has also likely mortgaged the Twins' chances of competing in 2008 with an eye toward the future. Time will tell whether the gamble pays off, but I'm not overly optimistic.

Update: Santana to the Mets

Sorry to be a little late on posting this. Many sources are reporting that the Twins and Mets have agreed to a trade that will send two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana to the Mets in return for a package of four prospects. That package includes outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. The deal is reportedly dependent on the Mets negotiating a contract extension with Santana.

It's awfully tough to feel remotely positive about this trade as a Twins fan. Full analysis tomorrow.

New York, New York (and Notes)

Let me start out today's post with a personal note that is somewhat relevant. On Thursday morning, I will be heading to New York for a short three-day trip. In and of itself, that's not all that exciting (well, for me it is because I've never been to The Big Apple), but what spices things up is that I'll be there on Super Bowl weekend as the Giants prepare to take on the Patriots in the year's biggest sporting event. Not only that, but it seems like there is a very good chance that Johan Santana will be traded to a New York team within the next week. I think it would be utterly crazy to be in New York at the time a trade was pulled off to send Santana to the Yankees or Mets. I'll walk around Times Square wearing my Santana jersey and I'll be sure to share what types of reactions or comments I get.

Anyway, a few notes from over the weekend:

* From the Department of Double Takes, check out this statement that the Pioneer Press' Charley Walters made when wrapping up a blurb predicting that Santana will be traded within the next ten days:

It's clear that Santana, acquired in a Rule 5 minor league draft trade deal in 1999, has become a baseball mercenary who doesn't care where he pitches as long he's paid the optimal amount.

I had to read this a couple times because it came out of nowhere within the context of the article. I wouldn't say that Walters' charge is "clear" at all -- at least it is not evidenced by anything he wrote in the article. Perhaps behind closed doors, Santana truly is the type of disloyal and greedy mercenary that Walters makes him out to be, but none of the quotes Santana has given to the media have really illustrated anything to that effect.

* Along with Walters' seemingly unsubstantiated jab at Santana, yesterday's edition of the Pioneer Press also featured an encouraging update on the progress of Francisco Liriano courtesy of Phil Miller. Says Frisco:

"There is nothing to tell anymore, because my arm feels great now. I can't say it hurts this much, or I still have this work to do, anything like that," Liriano said. "I think I'm ready to go, right now. There is no soreness, no pain, nothing. It's the same every time I throw - there's nothing for me to say because I can pitch normally."

The article goes on to state that Liriano is now throwing all of his pitches -- including the worrisome slider -- without pain and that he has no plans of making changes to his mechanics.

It's certainly great to hear these things, but I must confess I'm a little wary of taking Liriano's personal medical judgments at face value. As many will recall, Liriano downplayed the significance of his elbow issues during the 2006 season, and it later came to light that he was pitching through some serious pain. Hiding his injury may have worsened the problems for Liriano. With that, said, if what he's saying now is true, and he can continue to pitch pain-free through spring training and into the season, the Twins might have their ace after all even with Santana gone. That'd be great, because as much as I like Scott Baker, the idea of having him featured as the team's No. 1 starter is a bit frightening.

* I didn't make it to TwinsFest this weekend, but I've heard from people that were there and encountered Boof Bonser that the slimmed-down right-hander was barely recognizable. Apparently Bonser responded to challenges from his coaches to lose some weight and shed 20 lbs during the offseason. After a disappointing 2007 campaign, a rebound year for Bonser could be crucial to this rotation.

* Speaking of TwinsFest, be sure to check out the Curlz and Curveballs blog for a nice series of photos from the couple's Friday night trip to the Metrodome gathering.

* Here's a name to add to the long list of people who are fully aware that Michael Cuddyer should not be playing center field: Michael Cuddyer. It seems that the only name not on that list could well be that of the Twins' manager.

Friday Notes

Happy Friday! It's back to school for me next week as I embark upon what will potentially be my last semester at the University of Minnesota, but for now here are a few notes on various Twins-related topics.

* ESPN.com's Buster Olney opined in the Wednesday edition of his daily blog that the best option for Bill Smith and the Twins would be to hang onto Johan Santana, even if extending him is not a possibility. Says Olney:

If I was in Smith's shoes, I'd keep Santana. Because to trade him would be to forgo the opportunity to contend in 2008, when the Twins have a chance to be a good team, with Francisco Liriano returning, with Joe Nathan closing, with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young hitting in the middle of their lineup.

This is a good and -- I think -- often overlooked point. The Twins could potentially have one of the strongest groups of hitters in the middle of their lineup of any team in the American League this year. Olney doesn't even mention Jason Kubel, who in my mind could be the best hitter among the aforementioned group in 2008. Many people look at the big acquisitions by Detroit this winter and a Cleveland team that is mostly intact from its playoff run in 2007, and write off the Twins as a third-place team at best. While that may be where I'd pick the Twins to finish if I were ranking the AL Central teams right now, I think the Twins are are a lot closer to competing for a playoff spot than many people think as long as Santana is leading their rotation.

* Twins minor-league guru Dianna of the blog Rookie Whites noted yesterday that Twins' prospect Jose Mijares was in a traffic accident early Sunday in which he suffered a fracture in his left elbow that required surgery. Dianna relays that while "the operation was deemed a success," it will be two or three months before Mijares is able to throw again. Later in the day, Joe Christensen confirmed the report with Bill Smith, who stated that Mijares could be out of action four to six months.

Being that Mijares is a left-handed pitcher, it's disturbing to hear that he damaged his left elbow in the accident. Mijares is a highly intriguing prospect in that, while he has struggled mightily with control over the course of his career, he has electric stuff that has been compared to Francisco Liriano and many feel that if he can conquer his command issues he can develop into a dominant major-league reliever. He had been showing marked improvement in his control while playing in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he held a 1.86 ERA over 37 appearances. Mijares is only 23, but this incident could cause a considerable lag in his development, which is unfortunate given that the Twins need him to put things together as quickly as possible. There is a good possibility that Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon and Dennys Reyes will all be gone after the 2008 season, leaving a need for some young players to step in and restock the bullpen. Here's hoping Mijares experiences a speedy recovery.

* File this headline under "Obvious."

* Earlier this week, Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus put together a list of nine young players who are "breakout candidates" in 2008. Fifth on the list is Kubel, about whom Sheehan has this to say:

• Jason Kubel: While playing in the Arizona Fall League in 2004, Kubel, then 22 and considered one of the best hitting prospects in the game, suffered a devastating knee injury that cost him the entire 2005 season. Although he came back and played in ’06, he wasn’t remotely the same hitter. Most notably, Kubel’s post-injury strikeout rate has been much higher—147 in 835 PA, versus 193 in 1770 PA prior to the injury. That’s not just a result of playing at higher levels: that’s evidence of damage to the engine.

  What we saw in ’07 was Kubel finally get back to the hitter he was before the injury. In the season’s first two months, Kubel struck out 33 times and walked 11 in 165 PA. In the next two months, those numbers were 21/10 in 148 PA: a big drop in strikeout rate and K/BB. Over the last two months: 25/18 in 153 PA. Kubel, a disciplined hitter coming through the minors, regained that discipline in ’07. His batting average and power followed. He’s 26 this season, and may actually be the Twins’ best hitter during it; better than Morneau, better than Mauer.

These are the same trends I've noted with Kubel, which is a major reason I'm expecting big things from him in the upcoming season (as you may have gathered). Another fact that isn't mentioned here about Kubel is that despite some of his struggles last season, he consistently drove the ball hard. Kubel finished the season with a line-drive percentage of 22.1; that is considerably better than the rest of the team's hard hitters, such as Mauer (17.9%), Morneau (15.9%), Cuddyer (18.7%) and Torii Hunter (14%). In fact, if Kubel had enough at-bats to qualify, he would have tied Jorge Posada for sixth in the AL in LD% last year.

What's depressing? The only 2007 Twin that actually ranked in the Top 25 in the AL in LD% was the now-departed Jason Bartlett, who ranked 19th at 20.1 percent. What makes that less depressing? Brendan Harris and Delmon Young ranked 10th and 11th, respectively.

* Sticking with Sheehan's article, as interesting as it was to see Kubel's name halfway down the list of breakout candidates, I was perhaps even more intrigued by the player listed below him:

• Melky Cabrera. Cabrera went backwards in ’07, but not by enough for concern. Remember that he is just 23 years old and has more than 1100 plate appearances in the majors, with average to average-plus defense (good physical tools, but very raw, takes bad routes) and a very good 129/96 K/BB. He is a mature player offensively, patient at the plate and fair on the bases (25-for-35 stealing in his career). One interesting quirk is his G/F ratio, which is 1.63 for his career and was a whopping 1.81 last season. Cabrera is listed at 5’11” and 200 pounds. He’s not Willy Taveras, but rather a player who should be developing power and learning how to drive the ball, rather than hitting the ball on the ground 60 percent of the time.

  I’m reminded of Alex Rios, who doesn’t look a thing like Cabrera. Rios was largely disappointing in 2004 and 2005, hitting just 11 homers in more than 900 at-bats, with an isolated power of 117. The problem: Rios was hitting the ball on the ground too much, a 1.82 G/F in those two seasons. Starting in ’06, Rios put the ball in the air more than half the time, and became a star. When you look at Cabrera’s body, his established control of the strike zone, and his ability to hold his own at a young age, you recognize that all it’s going to take is for him to start elevating the ball. Cabrera may not get there in 2008, but he’s going to pop 80 extra-base hits and slug .500 in a season very, very soon.

Cabrera, who has been mentioned frequently in Santana trade rumors, gets bashed by a lot of fans for reasons I cannot surmise. He reached the major leagues as a 20-year-old in 2005, and has held his own in the big leagues over 1,024 at-bats with a .275/.340/.388 line. Many Twins fans seem to be sour on him because he posted an unimpressive .718 OPS last year, but it is essential to note that he was only 22 years old for most of the season and playing in a fairly high-pressure environment in New York.

I'm a fan of Cabrera, and while he doesn't profile as a superstar, I certainly think he can be an above-average outfielder in the major leagues for many years. That's a big part of the reason that, in my mind, the reported Yankees' offer of Phil Hughes+Cabrera+prospect is by far the best one on the table for Santana at this point.

Meet the Mets

Joe Christensen had an article in the Star Tribune yesterday reporting that the Mets may be the most likely eventual destination for Johan Santana, noting that they have reportedly offered the Twins a package that includes outfielder Carlos Gomez along with pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber.

I've always felt that the Mets were a logical trading partner, in that they have a greater need for Santana than the Yankees or Red Sox and thus may be willing to take their offers one step further than either of those clubs. Furthermore, there is little doubt that the Twins would rather send their star left-hander to the National League so as to avoid being forced to face him a couple times during the regular season and -- more frighteningly -- in the AL playoffs.

Christensen reports that the Twins have "told the Mets they'd have a done deal if New York would add prized outfield prospect Fernando Martinez." That's not exactly a minor toss-in, as Martinez is the Mets' top prospect and one of the better outfield prospects in baseball. Yet, if the Mets can make that happen, this is potentially an exciting package with a lot of upside. Martinez reached Double-A last season and held his own despite being just 18 years old, which is extremely impressive. He has tools that scouts rave about; then again, he has only accumulated 563 professional at-bats at this point, and he hasn't put up any jaw-dropping numbers as of yet (which is understandable, given his age), so making him the centerpiece of a Santana deal is a risky proposition.

As for the package the Mets have reportedly already offered, it has some potential but probably isn't significantly better than the offers the Yankees and Red Sox have made. I'm higher on Gomez than most and I like his chances to turn into a Jose Reyes type player. At 22, he's one of the fastest players in all of baseball, which makes him a very exciting player to watch, and I believe he'll build on his patience and power, both of which are fairly meager at this point. The lack of plate discipline is particularly alarming, as he'll never be able to put his blazing speed to good use unless he can get on base at a decent rate, but he is young and raw.

Along with Gomez, Guerra is the other enticing piece in the Mets' reported offer. A Venezuelan right-hander who won't turn 19 until April, Guerra has already put in a full season at Advanced Single-A, posting decent numbers against older and more experienced hitters. At 6'5" and 220 lbs., Guerra is an imposing figure on the mound and he brings a very good changeup which could become even more effective as he adds velocity to his fastball. Of course, Guerra is still at least a couple years away, and judging teenage pitching prospects is always a tricky task, so naturally there is a lot of risk involved with making him the centerpiece pitcher in a Santana deal.

Mulvey and Humber, the two others mentioned in the package, are decent pitchers who I don't believe will develop into above-average major-leaguers. The Twins already have numerous similar pitchers in the shape of guys like Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Jeff Manship -- guys who can put the ball in the strike zone consistently but lack exceptional stuff. I'd prefer to see the punchless Twins get more offense out of a Santana deal than one speedy center field who could well become the next Juan Pierre, which is why the Mets' offer isn't overly appealing unless Martinez is involved.

At this point, with the offers that are reportedly on the table, I still feel that the Yankees' package is the best. Phil Hughes remains the best player mentioned in any trade discussions, Melky Cabrera provides a solid young outfielder, and the additional prospect or two added to the deal would help stock the Twins' system. The Mets, however, appear to be serious bidders, and if they can adjust their deal a bit and find a way to include both Gomez and Martinez, they might be the club that comes out on top in these lengthy Santana Sweepstakes.

---

On an aside, if you're interested in reading what Mets fans are saying about this proposed deal, you can check this post and its comments over at Metsblog.com.

Back To Work

I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday! I don't have much to write about today, because this is quite simply a quiet time for the baseball world, but I thought I'd at least write up a quick post to let you all know I didn't die of mistletoe poisoning.

The only real story that continues to get ink regarding the Twins is the Johan Santana saga. It doesn't seem like a deal is particularly near, but rumors continue to float around regularly. Murray Chass of the New York Times wrote yesterday about the implications of baseball's luxury tax, relating it to the prospect of the Yankees acquiring and signing Santana. Chass mentions this interesting tidbit:

At one point, the Twins were said to be holding out for Hughes and Ian Kennedy, another of the Yankees’ attractive triumvirate of major league-ready young pitchers (the untouchable Joba Chamberlain being the third), but the Yankees wouldn’t give up both, so the Twins asked instead for [Jeff] Marquez, a 23-year-old right-hander.

A 23-year-old who struck out just 5.45 batters per nine innings in Double-A last year, Marquez is far from a great prospect. Chass mentions later in his article that the Yankees' GM Brian Cashman "wants to hold on to the young pitchers." With that being the case, I don't see why the Twins are really pushing for arms. Getting Kennedy would be nice, but the Twins' organization is already stocked with marginal pitchers like Marquez -- they have very little use for him. I'd much rather see them acquire a hitter with some upside as the third piece behind Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera in a deal with the Yankees.

On another note, I hunkered down during the long weekend and paged through a book I received several weeks ago to review. It's called "The Best Arguments in Minnesota Sports," and it is written by Pioneer Press scribe Bob Sansevere. Basically it is just a list of 100 different debatable topics with regards to each of Minnesota's sports teams -- from the Vikings to the Twins to the T-Wolves and so forth. I'm not the biggest Sansevere fan and I certainly found myself disagreeing with a few of the stances he takes in the book (Jack Morris is more deserving of a Hall of Fame spot than Bert Blyleven??), but it's an entertaining read. Check it out if you're cooped up in the house on a snowy day and bored.

The Offseason Thus Far

At this point last December, Terry Ryan had made the following offseason roster moves: picked up Torii Hunter's option, picked up Carlos Silva's option and signed free agent Jeff Cirillo to a one-year contract to serve as a backup 1B/3B/DH. As exciting as that flurry of activity was, I think it's safe to say that it pales in comparison to the list of moves Bill Smith has made here in his inaugural winter at the helm of the Twins. Already he has pulled the trigger on a blockbuster deal to bring Delmon Young to Minnesota, signed a pair of free agents who are slated to be starters in the infield, and gotten the Twins involved in trade talks with numerous clubs regarding ace pitcher Johan Santana. At this point, it appears likely that the Twins will have new starters manning at least five positions in 2008, and that's the type of shakeup that was needed for an offense that was one of the league's most stagnant in 2007.

Smith has been aggressive to be sure, but that's not to say I'm wild about the moves he's made. I felt that the Twins gave up too much talent in the trade with the Rays. Adam Everett (or "Neverhitt," as we'll likely be calling him in a few months) is a wonderful defensive player but does nothing to solve this team's offensive problems. Mike Lamb is certainly an upgrade offensively at third base, but there are serious questions about his defense and his ability to produce in the lineup as a regular. Craig Monroe will make more money than any mediocre fourth outfielder rightfully should. With all that being said, I'm not overly upset about any of the moves Smith has made and I think they all fit into an intelligent overarching plan that will give the Twins a chance to compete next year but is more aimed at putting the team in position to succeed in the long-term.

To me, the Twins' chances of competing next season are almost completely dependent on whether or not Santana is traded. Despite the tough nature of the AL Central these days, it'd be hard to count out a Twins team with a talented young rotation led by baseball's most dominant starting pitcher. The Twins can be especially dangerous if their offense is above-average, which would be possible with great campaigns from Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Young to go along with competent performances elsewhere. If Santana is gone, it's tough to see this team hanging around with the big boys, unless Francisco Liriano is a lot better than I expect him to be.

In most circles, it seems like a foregone conclusion that Santana will be dealt, likely within the next couple weeks. I'm a little skeptical at this point. Unless one of the bidding teams ups its offer, I could see the Twins hanging onto Santana and re-evaluating in July. And as much as I've been opposed to that notion in the past, perhaps it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.

I guess my feelings about the overall job Smith has done so far this offseason can best be described as lukewarm. He's still got some work to do, and he's got plenty of time to do it. We'll see what else he has up his sleeve.

All Quiet on the Midwestern Front

I realize it's December in the middle of Minnesota, but I think I just saw a tumbleweed roll by outside. Not much going on in Twins-land right now.

I don't have much to write about today. The Santana trade talks have seemingly quieted down for the time being, and it's tough to analyze any of the Twins' other pressing issues until that situation gets sorted out. I've heard Brandon Inge's name mentioned as a possible third base solution for the Twins... going to have to give that one a big fat no. He's basically Nick Punto with more power -- not worth the money he'll make or the prospect the Twins would have to give up to get him.

Several Mets fans showed up in the comments section on Friday's post and gave some first-hand viewpoints on the prospects being mentioned in Johan Santana trade rumors. If you haven't read through them, it's definitely worth checking out.

Have a good Tuesday. I know I will... officially less than one week left of school this semester!

Wrapping Up a Long Week

This has been a crazy week for Twins fans. The Johan Santana rumors were flying non-stop for about 72 straight hours, and at several points it seemed that a deal was imminent. Yet, here we are; the Winter Meetings have come and gone, and Santana is still a Twin for the time being. I'm of the opinion that Bill Smith's patience in this situation is a good thing. The deals that have reportedly been proposed have been extremely underwhelming, and I have to imagine that some team is going to come to its senses and cough up some real value in order to bring in the best pitcher on the planet. That said, the Twins need to make a decision on Santana in the near future, because the rest of the their moves this offseason will be dictated by what happens with him.

Anyway, here are some notes to wrap up this hectic week:

* Our pal Aaron Gleeman, who kept a running string of Santana updates on his blog on Wednesday and Thursday, noted on Wednesday evening that La Velle E. Neal III had said "it appears unlikely a deal will be reached this week." This prompted Gleeman to state that "the past 72 hours appear to have been a whole lot of nothing. Well covered, widely read nothing, but still nothing."

Not sure I'd agree with that last part. The Santana Saga has been widely read, to be sure, but "well covered"? I'm not real satisfied by the way this whole situation has been covered by the national media. Does reporting every small, unsubstantiated rumor and watching it get picked up by several outlets and subsequently blown out of proportion really constitute good coverage? I wouldn't say so.

I am actually quite satisfied with the way Neal covered the Winter Meetings. As a Twins' beat writer, you might expect him to be the most active reporter in pumping out Santana rumors, but he kept fairly quiet and reserved. I saw many people accuse him of being overly slow or sparse in his coverage, but I'm glad he chose not to contribute to the hysteria by running every unsubstantiated rumor on his blog.

From this point forward, I've chosen to take basically everything I hear regarding Santana with a grain of salt, unless I'm hearing it from a source I truly trust (like Neal). That way, I don't have to get worked up about fabricated rumors of a horrendous three-way deal that would result in the Twins getting Dan Haren and essentially nothing else for Santana. Yuck.

* In yesterday's column I previewed the Rule 5 draft, writing blurbs about the two players I was most worried about seeing the Twins lose: Yohan Pino and Garrett Guzman. Thankfully, Pino is safe, but unfortunately Guzman was grabbed up by the Washington Nationals. If he sticks with the Nats, it's not a crippling loss, because Guzman really doesn't project as anything more than a fourth outfielder at best, but the Twins are not an organization that can afford to be letting quality hitting prospects go for free. Aside from Guzman, the Twins also lost outfielder Rashad Eldridge, and pitchers R.A. Dickey (whom they had just recently signed), Tim Lahey, J.P. Martinez, and Joshua Hill. Guzman, Lahey and Dickey were selected in the major-league portion of the draft, meaning they will need to spend the entire season on the drafting team's 25-man roster or be sent back to the Twins.

* The Dodgers agreed to terms with center fielder Andruw Jones yesterday on a contract worth about $36 million over two years. With the addition of Jones, the Dodgers seemingly have an overloaded outfield, which would perhaps make it more palatable for GM Ned Colletti to part with Matt Kemp, who has always been my favorite player associated with the Santana rumors. Of course, the Dodgers have reportedly been very quiet in the Santana sweepstakes, and there are major questions about whether they would be willing to pony up the cash to sign the star left-hander long-term. Still, my dreams of a Santana-for-Kemp and Clayton Kershaw swap will continue to dance faintly.

* New York Mets GM Omar Minaya told the Associated Press that he thinks he has the players to bring in Santana, even without trading star shortstop Jose Reyes. Most people are skeptical about the Mets' ability to put together a worthy package without Reyes, but I'm pretty high on outfield prospects Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez (especially Gomez). The big downside with the Mets is that they lack high-end pitching prospects that might help offset the loss of the Twins' ace.

Nothing Yet

I heard on multiple occasions yesterday that a deal with the Red Sox was in the final stages of completion. It never materialized. I'm not unhappy about this, because I found the rumored deal (which was said to contain Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson and possibly Ryan Kalish) to be quite unsatisfactory. If it comes down to it and that's truly the best offer the Twins receive, I guess they have to take it, because it's almost certainly more value than they'd be able to acquire with the draft picks they'd receive when Santana leaves as a free agent next year. Still... we're talking about the best pitcher in baseball, right? That package doesn't even compare favorably to the one the Rangers got from the Braves for Mark Teixeira last season.

All of this might not even matter anyway. It seems like the Tigers basically have the division locked up for the next several years after pulling off this doozy.

Deal Or No Deal?

Johan Santana is still a Twin as I write this on Monday night. Of course, considering the nature of the current negotiations, I feel like that might change by the time I wake up in the morning.

The annual Winter Meetings are in full swing, and Santana is the hot topic. Numerous details about the Twins' talks with the Yankees and Red Sox have been popping up courtesy of various news outlets: Santana will not accept a trade during the 2008 season, Santana will not accept a trade to any team other than New York or Boston, the Yankees have imposed a 24-hour deadline at which point they will withdraw their offer (that deadline passed last night), so on and so forth. All these publicized details from what are supposed to be private trade discussions make me feel like getting back into my The Departed state of mind from last Friday and paraphrasing Sergeant Dignam: these negotiations have more leaks than the Iraqi navy.

Most of the details that have been leaked have been pretty weakly attributed ("a Twins official"; "a person familiar with the player's thinking"; etc.), so I'm not inclined to take a whole lot of these rumors too seriously. Yet, Yankees head honcho Hank Steinbrenner didn't feel the need to mask his identity when he came out and made the following comments to the New York Times:

“I don’t want to continue this dog-and-pony show, playing us against the Red Sox,” Steinbrenner said. “I’m not going to participate in that. This is our best offer. Minnesota knows it’s our best offer. Everybody knows it is.

“We need to get this done. If we don’t, I certainly won’t be upset about keeping Hughes and Cabrera. I definitely won’t. I don’t think Minnesota wants to be stuck negotiating with just one team.”

. . .

“How can I go any higher?” Steinbrenner said. “What do they want — Hughes, Kennedy and Cabrera? I can’t do that kind of thing. It’s crazy. It’s suicidal. In the past 20 or 30 years, teams have always asked more from the Yankees than they have of anybody else, and that’s going to stop. I’ve made the best offer Minnesota is going to get, and the fact is, it’s an offer we can go away happy and they can go away happy.”

Joe Christensen labeled Steinbrenner's comments "blatant tampering," which was also my first thought when I read them, at least given my understanding of how the league's tampering policies work. I'll be disappointed if Steinbrenner is not disciplined for his comments.

There's a reason people dislike the Yankees, and this is a big part of it. They try to impose their will and intimidate all the smaller market clubs. What exactly gives Steinbrenner and the Yankees the leverage to impose a deadline (on Dec. 3, no less)? They are the buyers in this situation, not the sellers. The Twins have no obligation to trade Santana, as much as Steinbrenner seems to be acting like they do. If he wants to withdraw his deal -- which is far from overwhelming -- then so be it. After the way the Alex Rodriguez situation played out just over a month ago, I don't think anyone is buying into this deadline business anyway.

This period of uncertainty is excruciating for Twins fans, and doubtlessly even more so for the beat writers who have to try to keep tabs on all the rumors flying around. That said, it seems that for the time being it is in Bill Smith's best interest to remain firm and be patient. The decisions he makes here will be crucially important to the future of the franchise. He can't afford to let himself get played by the Big Bad Empire.

Monday Notes

A smattering of notes to help pass the time here in the early stages of the offseason...

* I've heard rumors floating around for a while that the Twins have some interest in free agent Tony Clark as a designated hitter candidate, and on Friday La Velle E. Neal III confirmed those rumors on his blog. Clark is 35 and has not had more than 349 at-bats in a season since 2001, so he's hardly an option as a regular, but he's at least mildly intriguing as a part-time DH option.

Like Craig Monroe, Clark has some power but lacks on-base skills. He's gotten on base at an above-average rate exactly once in the past five years, but he did slug .511 last year and in 2005 he hit .304/.366/.636 with 30 home runs and 87 RBI over 130 games.

He's reported to be looking for deal in the area of two years, $4 million. That sounds like something the Twins could afford.

* The Star Tribune's resident geezer, Sid Hartman, wrote in Sunday's edition that the Twins have offered Johan Santana a five-year deal worth $93 million. Considering the source, I'm hesitant to give this bit of news much credence, but in any case it seems like a logical starting point for negotiations from the Twins' perspective. There's little doubt that Santana would reject such an offer, but it's far from an insult.

* I heard rumors from people with "inside sources" last week that Torii Hunter was going to be signing a six-year deal with the Rangers on Friday. Obviously those rumors were false because such a deal never materialized; nevertheless, I continue to believe that Hunter will eventually end up in Texas. Such a deal would make sense, considering the Rangers' history of handing out foolishly lengthy contracts (see: Rodriguez, Alex).

Golden Geese

The American League Gold Glove winners were announced yesterday, and Twins fans will notice one very familiar name along with a welcome new one.

Torii Hunter brought home the award for a seventh consecutive time, while Johan Santana won his first Gold Glove at the pitcher position. Is Hunter really still one of the top three defensive outfielders in AL? I'm skeptical. But I have little doubt that Santana is the league's top defensive pitcher -- his ability to fly off the mound and use his athleticism to make plays is unmatched by any pitcher I watched this year. I'm glad to see him recognized by these oft-misguided voters.

There's No Such Thing as Santana's Clause

There will be number of interesting storylines for Twins fans to follow this offseason. Bill Smith has plenty of things on his plate in his first few months as general manager; Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva are both eligible to become free agents and there are several holes on the offense that seemingly need to be filled from outside the organization. The player whose fate I will be following with the most interest over the next few months, though, is Johan Santana.

Santana is under contract with the Twins through next season, but I would contend that Smith absolutely must make a decision on the left-handed ace this offseason. Whether that means trading Santana or extending his contract, the Twins need to make a move on way or the other because doing nothing could prove tremendously costly.

I already have my doubts about whether the Twins can realistically afford to re-sign Santana, but if it's going to happen, it will need to happen soon. I am quite positive that if the two sides have not reached an agreement by the start of next season, Santana will wait to test free agency, which will almost certainly push him out of the Twins' price range.

If it becomes clear that Santana will not be in Minnesota past the 2008 season, a trade is the only logical avenue for the Twins. Santana told Star Tribune beat writer La Velle E. Neal III earlier this week that he'd be willing to waive his no-trade clause, which eliminates a major stumbling block in any potential efforts to deal him. As Joe Christensen notes on his blog, we are likely to see a ridiculous number of trade rumors involving Santana over the next few months, most of which will have no basis in reality. For his part, Christensen says he thinks there is only about a "1-in-5 chance" that the Santana will be traded between now and next spring. I would presume that the likelihood is a little higher than that, but I suppose I could be wrong.

In my heart, I'm not really rooting for Santana to get traded. He's a very likable guy, a historically great pitcher, and a lot of fun to watch. If Smith can find a way to get a contract extension worked out this winter that makes sense and keeps the Twins in a position where they'll be able to surround Santana with enough talent to win throughout the life of his contract, I'll be a very happy camper. The problem is that I really can't see that happening.

In my mind, the absolute worst thing that could happen would be for the Twins to hang onto Santana for another year, miss the playoffs, and then collect a pair of draft picks next winter when he signs a mega-deal with some big-market franchise. Unfortunately, considering this organization's history, it's probably the most likely outcome.

Offseason Wish List

The upcoming offseason is going to be a hugely important one for newly appointed general manager Bill Smith and the Twins organization. After a disappointing 2007 campaign, the team will look to rebound while sorely needing to improve in several areas and at the same time dealing with several sticky contract situations.

Today I am going to break down the moves that I would make this offseason if I were in Smith's shoes. I'll have to do some guesswork in terms of what it would take to acquire certain players via trade and the amounts that free agents would sign for, but I think that for the most part the numbers are realistic and the moves are feasible.

Considering the Twins' history of being quiet in the offseason, I doubt that all (if any) of these moves will be made, but I wanted to show how the Twins can make a rebuilding effort during the offseason while remaining very competitive in 2008.

If you find any of these moves to be ridiculous, or have some thoughts of your own, I'd love to hear your ideas.

***

1) Let Torii Hunter walk.

As much as we all love Hunter, it's just not feasible to hand a huge long-term contract to a guy that will turn 33 next season. By letting Hunter walk, the Twins will receive two high picks in next June's draft as compensation.

Of course, Hunter's departure would leave a major hole in center field, which will be addressed with the next move...

2) Trade Johan Santana to Dodgers for OF Matt Kemp and SP Clayton Kershaw.

I talked about this rumored trade yesterday, noting that the deal "would certainly be enticing." While it's difficult to think about the Twins parting with their best player and one of the best pitchers of this generation, I find it unlikely that the Twins will be able to re-sign Santana for the type of money he'll be able to get.

If the Twins can't re-sign Santana, we have to start considering which is more valuable: one more year of Santana or a couple stud prospects and an extra $13.25 million in payroll next season. All things considered, I'd have to lean toward the latter. Santana is my favorite Twin, but if he's going to be gone after next year anyway and you have a chance to get a phenomenal pitching prospect and an MLB-ready 23-year-old who can play center field, I think you've got to jump on it.

3) Trade Anthony Swarzak and Oswaldo Sosa to Rockies for 3B Garrett Atkins.
I'm not going off of any particular rumors with this trade proposition; I sort of just made this one up myself, so it's possible I don't know what I'm talking about. What I do know is this: the Rockies have a very nice 3B prospect named Ian Stewart knocking at the door in Triple-A, and as such Atkins is expendable to them. I also know that Swarzak and Sosa are very good prospects, and that Sosa's ground ball tendencies would play well in Coors Field.

This would be a tremendous deal for the Twins. They'd solve their long-standing issues at third base with an excellent right-handed hitter in Atkins. And while they'd be losing arguably their best pitching prospect in Swarzak, the Twins could absorb that hit having acquired Kershaw in the Santana deal.

Would the Rockies make this deal? I know that their organization is always looking for pitching, although they might be looking for more major-league-ready talent having turned themselves back into contenders this season. Still, if I was in charge down in Colorado this is certainly an offer I'd consider.

4) Sign Barry Bonds to one-year, $18 million deal.
Alright, this one might seem like a bit of a stretch. But, here's my reasoning:

We know that Bonds won't be playing in San Francisco next year, as the Giants officially ruled out that possibility recently. We think he still wants to play somewhere next year, preferably as a designated hitter since he'll be 43 and has bad knees. Minnesota would make sense for Bonds for a couple of reasons: 1) there is a huge need for a DH here; and 2) it's not a huge market so he'd be able to stay out of the spotlight to some degree, which I'm guessing would appeal to him given his hatred for the media. He also would probably like to join a team with realistic championship aspirations, as opposed to, say, Texas.

With Hunter and Santana both departing, the Twins would have a ton of extra money to work with next season. The beauty of a one-year contract is that there is very little risk involved. Even if Bonds drops off due to old age or is hampered by injuries, the Twins will have no commitment past the 2008 season. Additionally, getting that big salary off the books after one year would allow the Twins to work on extending guys like Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer. Bringing the Home Run King to Minnesota would almost certainly have a positive effect on ticket sales, and Bonds's presence in the No. 3 spot could completely change the complexion of the Twins' lineup. From competitive and financial standpoints, this acquisition is almost a no-brainer.

The question is whether the Twins would be willing to make the logical gamble on Bonds. Would this generally conservative front office be willing to look past the dark cloud that hovers over Barry's head and see the positives he would bring? And, more importantly, could an organization that has always greatly valued personality bring itself to bring in one of the worst clubhouse characters in baseball history?

Incidentally, while I have been pondering this idea for some time now, Joe Christensen wrote a story for the Star Tribune today indicating that the Twins may give consideration to signing Bonds.

5) Re-sign Carlos Silva for three years/$21 million
I feel weird suggesting this, because up until this point I have consistently said that the Twins should let Silva walk this offseason without thinking twice. However, if all the above situations were to play out, I think it would be wise to re-up Silva as long as he's still willing to give a hometown discount. With Santana gone, it would be nice to have a guy with some experience to help anchor what would be a very young rotation. No doubt Ron Gardenhire would like to have his veteran presence.

This deal supposes that Silva is still willing to give the Twins a discount, which may be less likely with his buddy Santana gone. If Silva is looking for around $10 million/season, which I have hypothesized he could get on the open market, then it would be best to show him the door.

***

With all of these moves, here is how I'd envision the Twins' 2008 roster coming out of spring training:

STARTING LINEUP
1. Jason Bartlett, SS
2. Joe Mauer, C
3. Barry Bonds, DH
4. Garrett Atkins, 3B
5. Justin Morneau, 1B
6. Michael Cuddyer, RF
7. Jason Kubel, LF
8. Matt Kemp, CF
9. Alexi Casilla, 2B

BENCH
Mike Redmond, C
Nick Punto, IF
Brian Buscher, IF
Lew Ford, OF
Jason Tyner, OF

STARTING ROTATION
1. Francisco Liriano, LH
2. Matt Garza, RH
3. Carlos Silva, RH
4. Scott Baker, RH
5. Glen Perkins, LH

BULLPEN
Joe Nathan, RH
Pat Neshek, RH
Matt Guerrier, RH
Dennys Reyes, LH
Boof Bonser, RH
Juan Rincon, RH

NOTES:
There is some room for change with the bullpen and rotation. Even though Bonser struggled in a relief appearance earlier this week, I like the idea of him utilizing his stuff out of the bullpen. I chose Perkins as the No. 5 starter, but that spot could just as easily go to Kevin Slowey. If Liriano has a setback or one of the youngsters struggle, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing are waiting in Triple-A to step in. I picked Casilla as the starting second baseman, but it seems Punto could end up in that spot; either way, the other one starts the season as a versatile bench player and pinch-running option.

By my admittedly quick and sloppy calculation, the payroll on this roster adds up to around $70 million, which is right around where they are this year.

So what do you think? Am I out of my mind or does plan of action make some sense?

Santana's Last Start as a Twin?

On Sunday, much was made of Torii Hunter playing in what was likely his last home game at the Metrodome. Yesterday, Johan Santana made his final start of the 2007 season against the Tigers. While not overly likely, it is very possible that the start was Santana's last in a Twins uniform.

Numerous rumors have popped up recently regarding the possibility of Santana being dealt this offseason. He is on the verge of entering the final year of his contract with the Twins, and will likely command upwards of $20 million per season in his next deal. While losing the best pitcher in the game would be a blow for the Twins, the cheap young talent that would certainly come back in a trade might set the team up for success over the next several years, and in the end a trade could turn out to be beneficial in the long run.

The potential deal that seems to have the most weight to it right now is a rumored one with the Dodgers that would bring back outfielder Matt Kemp and starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw. I'd prefer any deal with the Dodgers to include stud third base prospect Andy LaRoche, but a package of Kemp and Kershaw would certainly be enticing. Kemp is an athletic young outfielder who has hit .338/.373/.530 as a 22-year-old in the majors this year and could replace Torii Hunter in center. Meanwhile, the 19-year-old lefty Kershaw is considered by many to be the best pitching prospect in the game.

It's difficult to weigh the positives and negatives of such a deal. The Twins would be getting an immediate inexpensive answer in center field, as well as a dominating lefty who could potentially replace Santana as the team's ace somewhere down the line; yet, they'd be losing a historically great pitcher and the possibility of a devastating Santana/Liriano one-two punch at the top of the rotation next season.

Santana's outing yesterday was cut short by a long rain delay, and he ended up pitching just three unimpressive innings. It seems like a fitting end to what has been Santana's worst season as a full-time starter (although, in fairness, still a great season by any standards). The thought of that nondescript three-inning performance being Santana's last as a Twin seems surreal, but it's probably something that's worth keeping in mind as we head into the offseason.

Handicapping the AL Cy Young Race

At one point during the FOX broadcast of the Twins/White Sox game on Saturday, a graphic came up displaying the candidates for the American League Cy Young Award. The players listed on FOX's graphic were Chien-Ming Wang, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander. I found this list rather curious, as it contained two players that, in my opinion, don't belong anywhere near the top five (Wang and Verlander) while excluding two players whom I would rank in the top four (Kelvim Escobar and Johan Santana). Neither Wang nor Verlander ranks in the top ten in the AL in ERA, but both play in big markets and get lots of run support, two factors which I suspect have fueled their hype. This list isn't the only one that has had me scratching my head.

Kevin Hench contributed an article to FoxSports.com this weekend outlining his top ten Cy Young contenders in the AL, and he somehow managed to leave Santana completely off the list. Much like in 2005, Santana seems to be getting widely ignored despite having the credentials to be a top contender.

As usual, baseball writers everywhere seem to be putting way too much stock into that W statistic while ignoring many others that are much more indicative of a pitcher's success.

With about three weeks left in the season, here's my list of the top five Cy Young contenders in the AL as I currently see them.

5. Dan Haren: 196 IP, 14-7, 3.03 ERA, 168 K / 50 BB, .240 BAA, 1.18 WHIP
Haren got off to a great start and was the American League's starting pitcher in the All-Star game, but he has seen some expected regression in his numbers. After going 10-3 with a 2.30 ERA and .205 BAA before the All-Star break, Haren is 4-4 with a 4.46 ERA and .298 BAA since. He should be judged on his season as a whole, and the overall numbers are still good (especially the ERA, which still leads the league by a hair), but his peripherals are underwhelming and I suspect he'll continue to decline a bit here in the final weeks of the season.

4. Kelvim Escobar: 180.1 IP, 16-7, 3.04 ERA, 150 K / 60 BB, .242 BAA, 1.23 WHIP
Escobar has had a very surprising season, putting himself right in the mix as a Cy candidate despite holding a career ERA above 4. Escobar was terrific between the months of July and August, going 6-3 with a 2.01 ERA during that span. His peripheral numbers aren't great, and he has struggled with his control at times, but Escobar has come up big for the Halos this year and he definitely deserves to be in this conversation.

3. Josh Beckett: 181.2 IP, 18-6, 3.27 ERA, 173 K / 36 BB, .245 BAA, 1.14 WHIP
My guess is that Beckett will end up winning the award, because he plays in Boston and leads the league in that pesky Wins statistic. And I don't mean to disparage Beckett by ranking him third, because he is having a career year and he has been crucial to Boston's success. Yet, Beckett's numbers don't sufficiently wow me enough to consider him top Cy material. He ranks seventh in ERA and in strikeouts, fourth in WHIP, eighth in opponents' batting average, and sixth in opponents' OPS. He has also had some durability issues, and ranks just 18th in the AL in innings pitched.

2. Johan Santana: 201 IP, 15-11, 3.09 ERA, 213 K / 46 BB, .224 BAA, 1.06 WHIP
I just can't figure how anyone can possibly not consider Santana to be at least among the top three contenders in this race. It's true that he's having a down year by his standards, but his numbers are still excellent in relation to his peers. Santana ranks third in ERA, second in strikeouts (he'll likely be first soon, since Erik Bedard is now done for the season), second in BAA, and fifth in opponents' OPS. He's not even all that far off the lead in Wins, as he trails the leader Beckett by just three. A lot of people hold it against Santana that he has given up a league-leading 30 home runs, but who cares how he's giving up runs as long as he's not giving up very many? I think it's a testament to his skill that he can give up so many homers and still give up so few runs overall.

1. C.C. Sabathia: 220 IP, 17-7, 3.15 ERA, 185 K / 33 BB, .260 BAA, 1.14 WHIP
This is an instance where I am going to look past the numbers to some extent. Sabathia isn't going to blow anyone away with his ERA, strikeout rate or batting average against, but he has been an absolute workhorse for the Indians this year. He leads the league in innings pitched by a fairly wide margin, and is averaging over seven innings per start. He leads the league in hits allowed, but that tends to happen when you rack up so many innings. He has offset the high number of hits by allowing just 33 walks for an infinitesimal BB/9 rate of 1.35. It pains me to pick Sabathia, because I really don't like him, but he's been the class of the AL this year in my opinion.

Late Bloomers

We've seen it all too often this season. The Twins fell behind early and sputtered their way through inning after inning without pushing a run across. The starter stumbled a bit early, and it looked like it would be his undoing as the Twins' bats snoozed. With his team trailing 4-0 heading into the seventh inning, it looked like Johan Santana was headed toward his 10th loss on the season.

Suddenly, the bats awakened. Justin Morneau broke out of his home run slump with his first dinger in over a month, and Jason Kubel followed up with a two-run homer of his own just a few minutes later. The Twins manufactured two more runs in the eighth, and added two more on a two-run shot from Torii Hunter in the ninth. In total, they scored seven runs on 10 hits (six for extra bases) in the final three innings of the game, taking advantage of a weak and depleted Baltimore bullpen. To quote Diamond Joe Quimby, "that was unexpected."

It was the Twins' second come-from-behind victory in as many days, but this one was much different from Thursday night's sampling. Last night, the Twins' bats were resilient. They came to life and started driving balls all over the place, as opposed to Thursday night where the Orioles basically handed them the game on a silver platter. This one was a victory that was earned. And it was especially sweet that the Twins were able to take the lead in time to get a win for Santana, who was owed a favor or two by this offense.

Coming off perhaps the best outing of his career, Santana wasn't overly sharp last night. He gave up four runs on three homers, but to his credit he hung in there and pitched seven innings, keeping the Twins in the game and leaving the door open for their eventual comeback. He also struck out seven while walking just one. With his 14th win, Santana moves into a tie for third place in the AL in victories. He's not on top of the list of Cy Young contenders at this point, but he's at least keeping his name in the conversation.

Tonight, the Orioles will be starting right-hander Radhames Liz, who will be making his major-league debut. Liz makes the jump directly from Double-A, where he had gone 11-4 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Liz has posted good strikeout rates throughout his minor-league career and was allowing an opponents' batting average of .204 this season. Those are good numbers to be sure, but at 24, he is somewhat old for Double-A, and his control is suspect. If the Twins' hitters show some patience, they should be able to have success against the kid. Meanwhile, it would be nice to see Matt Garza bounce back after getting roughed up in his last outing.

A win could actually be meaningful. As much as the Twins should be out of the playoff race at this point, they're now only 5 1/2 games out of first place after Cleveland's loss in Kansas City last night, and the Twins play the Indians six times in their next 11 games. The Twins are still a real long-shot at this point, but at least they control their own destiny to some extent.