Three-Bagger: Posey, Home Cooking & Killer

* San Francisco's Buster Posey was crushed in a home plate collision on Wednesday night, and yesterday it was revealed that the catcher sustained a broken bone and sprained ligaments in his leg. It's a very sad situation for the 24-year-old star, who will miss the rest of the season and face a difficult rehab.

This is the second time in the past year we've seen a top young catcher suffer a catastrophic leg injury in a collision (last year Carlos Santana of the Indians, himself 24, busted his knee up on a similar play). It's also another tally against the logic of keeping Joe Mauer at catcher. On top of the exerting routine for his already battered legs, Mauer is at increased risk for this type of mishap as long as he's behind the plate.

While he's been able to avoid any major incidents up to this point in his career, Mauer has hung in there and taken his hits. Disastrous situations like the ones experienced by Santana and Posey have to weigh on the minds of Twins brass as they contemplate their $184 million investment.

* After falling to the Mariners 3-0 on Wednesday afternoon, the Twins dropped to 5-13 at Target Field this season. They've been outscored by 49 runs in 18 home games. Many have pointed to the team's home-heavy remaining schedule as a beacon of light, but the team has actually played worse in front of their own fans than on the road.

This is a shocking development for a franchise that has historically excelled at home . The Twins were notorious for their unique advantage in the Metrodome years and they carried that right over to Target Field last year, posting the league's best home record at 53-28.

You have to go back to the year 2000 to find the last time the Twins were under .500 at home. That team failed to win 70 games.

* The Twins haven't hit many home runs at Target Field this year, but last night's tribute to Harmon Killebrew certainly qualifies as one. Kudos to the organization for a classy memorial commemorating the man who embodies Twins history. Killebrew retired 10 years before I was born and I never had the chance to meet him, but his reputation speaks for itself. I can honestly say I don't think I've ever heard a negative thing about him from anyone who encountered him. That's pretty rare.

Killebrew is a big reason why, even in these darkest of times, I am proud to call myself a Twins fan. May he rest in peace.

The Nicks' Picks 2011

It's that time of year. Time for us all to make our trivial and almost certain-to-be-wrong preseason predictions, so that when the season comes to an end we can look back and chuckle at how clueless we were. To kick off the action, I've jotted down my predictions for various general and Twins-specific outcomes, and I've even enlisted my former blogging partner Nick Mosvick to throw his hat in the ring.

Feel free to submit your own predictions in the comments section.

Nelson's Picks

General

AL West: Athletics
AL Central: White Sox
AL East: Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Yankees

NL West: Rockies
NL Central: Brewers
NL East: Phillies
NL Wild Card: Braves

World Series: Phillies over Red Sox

AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

AL MVP: Robinson Cano
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson
NL Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt

Twins-Specific

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
Twins Top Pitcher: Francisco Liriano
Twins Best Rookie: Kyle Gibson
Twins Most Improved Player: Michael Cuddyer
Bold Predictions: Front office will add multiple relievers from outside before trade deadline; Liriano's ERA will rank among top 3 in AL; Delmon Young will hit 30 home runs.
A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Indians, Royals
Three Keys to Success for the Twins: Good health from core players; emergence of quality relief options in middle innings; continued success against divisional opponents.

Mosvick's Picks

General

AL West: Athletics
AL Central: Tigers
AL East: Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Rays

NL West: Giants
NL Central: Brewers
NL East: Braves
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

World Series: Braves over Red Sox

AL MVP: Carl Crawford
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young: Josh Johnson
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

AL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Drabek
NL Rookie of the Year: Mike Minor

Twins-Specific

Last year, in this category, I produced a spectacularly bad pick by predicting that Brendan Harris would get more at-bats than Delmon Young. Not only did I miss on foreseeing any improvement from Young, I missed on Harris becoming the definition of a replacement-level player, or possibly worse. Nonetheless, I'll get the tires again on Twins-specific bold predictions here:

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
Twins Top Pitcher: Francisco Liriano
Twins Best Rookie: Ben Revere
Twins Most Improved Player: Kevin Slowey
Bold Predictions: Kevin Slowey will lead the staff in ERA, Matt Capps will have more saves than Joe Nathan, Jason Kubel will top 30 home runs
A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Indians, Royals
Three Keys to Success for the Twins: Morneau making a healthy and productive return to the lineup; rookie bullpen arms having success late in the season; getting at least marginal productivity from bench players not named Thome.

Winter of My Discontent

If there's one thing I hate doing as a Twins fan, it's admitting when the White Sox have completely, unequivocally crushed my team. That is what's happening this offseason, and it's been painful to watch it unfold. Chicago's brazen aggressiveness only serves to magnify the lack of activity from a Twins' front office that seems content to watch divisional rivals power up while they power down.

The Sox don't like admitting when they've been crushed by the Twins either, obviously. That's surely what sparked this winter of wheeling and dealing. They went 5-13 against the Twins last season, and were effectively eliminated from contention after being swept at home in a humbling mid-September series.

Whatever the White Sox tried last year, the Twins had an answer. By the end of the season, Ozzie Guillen was basically bowing down to Ron Gardenhire and his magical cast of baseball demigods, who were so great they couldn't manage a single victory in the playoffs.

Chicago GM Kenny Williams is not one to take such blows to his pride lightly. So he set out this offseason to construct a team that would fare much better against the customary AL Central champs.

First, there was the blockbuster signing of Adam Dunn, one of the game's premier power hitters. Less than a week later, the Sox re-signed free agent first baseman Paul Konerko, another elite power hitter coming off a 39-homer year. They also re-upped their catcher, A.J. Pierzynski.

In the bullpen, the Sox bid farewell to Bobby Jenks (apparently due to personality conflicts) but in his place they've signed power righty Jesse Crain away from the Twins. This past weekend, they inked left-handed reliever Will Ohman, who last year posted a 3.21 ERA while holding lefty hitters to a .636 OPS with the Marlins.

Ohman joins a White Sox bullpen that already included dominating portsiders Matt Thornton and Chris Sale, both of whom are closer candidates. With three lefty-stifling southpaws potentially populating his bullpen, Guillen will be in position to start playing match-ups against the Twins' overwhelmingly left-handed lineup as early as the sixth inning.

It would be nice if the Twins had acquired some sort of legitimate right-handed bat to offset that advantage, but they've done no such thing. In fact, the team hasn't really made any positive strides this winter. Through signings and trades, they've added a number of minor-league players (including Tsuyoshi Nishioka, essentially the equivalent of a minor-leaguer), which bolsters organizational depth but does little to combat Chicago's bold roster renovations.

The Twins' salary shedding moves have been far more prevalent. They dealt away their starting shortstop for minor-leaguers because they didn't want to pay him. They've watched their starting second baseman and two of their most valuable relievers from last year, Matt Guerrier and Crain, sign elsewhere because they were too expensive. Little interest has been shown in retaining two other free agent relievers, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes.

The only action from the Twins this offseason that has clearly reflected any kind of determination to defend their spot at the top of the division is a move that hasn't even been made yet: the apparently impending Carl Pavano signing.

While one can argue that this move was an absolute necessity, it's a risky investment clearly aimed at trying to maintain the status quo rather than meaningfully advancing the team's chances at a deep postseason run.

Some will argue that the front office's financially conservative approach to this offseason is the unavoidable result of a payroll that has already swelled up due to a big raise for Joe Mauer and several overly bloated salaries for players under contract (Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Capps, etc.). I'd counter by pointing out that, for one thing, the Twins have nobody to blame for bloated salaries but themselves. Furthermore, payroll isn't really that high, when you think about it.

During their free agent shopping spree, the White Sox have watched their payroll climb to around $120 million, Meanwhile, the Twins are still trying to haggle Pavano's price down so they can stay in the $115 million range. This team is playing in a brand new stadium that sells out every night and their ownership holds no less cash than Jerry Reinsdorf -- is there really any reason at this point that they should be so much less willing to spend?

The point has made been, and will be made again, that there are several weeks left in the offseason and the Twins often wait until February to strike free agent deals, when the market tends to settle down. That's all well and good, but I don't find it acceptable that they've watched so many players that could help the team sign elsewhere while waiting to hunt the bargain bin at the end of the offseason, all because they're handcuffed by their own questionable past decisions. Minnesota taxpayers funded their new stadium and filled it up every night last year; they have the right to expect more than business as usual.

Coming Up Short

One of the most important and immediate decisions that the Twins' front office will face this offseason is whether or not to offer arbitration to J.J. Hardy. There a number of other interesting arbitration cases, but few seem as up in the air as Hardy's. It's not difficult to see why.

Hardy earned $5.1 million in 2010, and is entering his final year of team control. If the Twins offer him arbitration, they will lock up his services for 2011 while also guaranteeing him a raise of at least a million (in the Offseason GM Handbook, we projected his salary at $6.5 million). That seems like a hefty price to pay for a shortstop who characteristically struggled with injuries while posting unspectacular offensive numbers for a second straight year.

This decision represents a gamble of sorts. If Bill Smith decides to offer Hardy arbitration, he's gambling that the shortstop can put together a healthier campaign next year, because it's hard to justify such a large salary for a player that's only going to play 101 games (as he did this year) while putting forth somewhat meager production.

If Smith decides not to offer Hardy arbitration, he's gambling that he can find a better and perhaps less expensive option elsewhere. That could be Alexi Casilla, though I suspect he's currently pegged to start at second base next year with Orlando Hudson set to depart. It could conceivably be Trevor Plouffe, but that's highly doubtful given his pedestrian minor-league track record and lack of big-league success.

Non-tendering Hardy probably seems like a no-brainer to some. He came nowhere close to replicating his 2007/08 production, as many had hoped, and couldn't really stay on the field this year. However, when we compare Hardy's contributions to those of other shortstops across the league, his numbers start to look a whole lot more impressive.

Let's run through the players who led each American League club in games played at shortstop this year. Listed alongside each player are their core offensive numbers, and I'll also include each player's UZR/150 in an effort to get a snapshot of their defensive proficiency, while acknowledging that Ultimate Zone Rating -- like all fielding metrics -- is flawed, especially over a one-year sample. Finally, I'll include their WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, a figure meant to represent the number of wins they contributed over a replacement-level player based on a formula developed by FanGraphs that factors in both offense and defense.

We start with our own guy:

TWINS: J.J. Hardy
101 G, .268/.320/.394, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 12.8 UZR/150, 2.4 WAR

Now, the rest of the AL:

ORIOLES: Cesar Izturis
150 G, .230/.277/.268, 1 HR, 28 RBI, 5.8 UZR/150, -0.3 WAR

RED SOX: Marco Scutaro
150 G, .275/.333/.388, 11 HR, 56 RBI, -3.3 UZR/150, 2.1 WAR

WHITE SOX: Alexei Ramirez
156 G, .282/.313/.431, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 10.1 UZR/150, 3.8 WAR

INDIANS: Asdrubal Cabrera
97 G, .276/.326/.346, 3 HR, 29 RBI, -13.4 UZR/150, 0.5 WAR

TIGERS: Ramon Santiago
112 G, .263/.337/.325, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 16.1 UZR/150, 2.0 WAR

ROYALS: Yuniesky Betancourt
151 G, .259/.288/.405, 16 HR, 78 RBI, -9.2 UZR/150, 0.6 WAR

ANGELS: Erick Aybar
138 G, .253/.306/.330, 5 HR, 29 RBI, -2.6 UZR/150, 0.9 WAR

YANKEES: Derek Jeter
157 G, .270/.340/.370, 10 HR, 67 RBI, -5.4 UZR/150, 2.5 WAR

ATHLETICS: Cliff Pennington
156 G, .250/.319/.368, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 8.8 UZR/150, 3.7 WAR

MARINERS: Josh Wilson
108 G, .227/.278/.294, 2 HR, 25 RBI, -2.9 UZR/150, -0.3 WAR

RAYS: Jason Bartlett
135 G, .254/.324/.350, 4 HR, 47 RBI, -13.8 UZR/150, 0.7 WAR

RANGERS: Elvis Andrus
148 G, .265/.342/.301, 0 HR, 35 RBI, 0.3 UZR/150, 1.5 WAR

BLUE JAYS: Alex Gonzalez (includes second-half numbers w/ Braves)
157 G, .250/.294/.447, 23 HR, 88 RBI, 5.1 UZR/150, 3.4 WAR

So, there you have it. If you were underwhelmed by Hardy's numbers before looking at this list, you're probably not anymore. Despite the fact that injuries limited the Twins' shortstop to 101 games and tainted his overall production when he was able to get on the field, only FOUR shorstops in the Junior Circuit managed a higher WAR.

Now, I'm not going to say that WAR is a perfect stat, but it is cumulative so the fact that Hardy's mark was fifth best in the AL despite his missing close to half the season says something about the state of regular shortstops in this league. There just aren't very many good ones, and very few who can hit for power or play truly outstanding defense. Even though Hardy played in only 101 games and his six home runs were fewer than we'd expect from him based on his history, only four players at his position hit more homers. Just one AL shortstop rated better defensively according to UZR.

Hardy's numbers only look bad when you look at them in isolation and not in the context of his position and league. Darn near every other team in the AL would like to upgrade at shortstop, and the free agent market at that position is exceedingly thin so Hardy would get snatched up very quickly with no real desirable options left over.

It's for that reason that I have always felt, and continue to feel, that bringing back Hardy is a no-brainer, even if the price seems high. I hope Smith and the Twins feel the same way.

Longoria and Price's Comments Bad For Business

When the Twins won their last World Series, I was five years old and more interested in preparing to trick-or-treat (in the midst of what would turn out to be a historical blizzard) than watching baseball.

As most are aware, the Twins followed up their championship season in 1991 with a decade-long lull. These were the formative years of my love affair with baseball. In the mid-90s, I spent many an evening inside that massive silo known as the Metrodome, watching bad teams alongside the few thousand other fans scattered throughout. In those days, you could move from your cheap Upper GA seats to the lower deck behind home plate and the ushers would hardly notice or care.

The last baseball game I ever watched within the confines of the Metrodome was played under circumstances not at all similar to those laid out above. It was October 6th of last year, and the Dome was packed with more than 54,000 raucous fans who'd come out to cheer on the Twins -- now a perennial contender -- as they hosted the Tigers in a tiebreaker that would determine the AL Central Champ.

I've seen it both ways, so I'm all too familiar with the atmospheric differences between a packed house and an empty building. The Twins fed off the energy provided by their fans in that final regular-season game, willing their way to a 12th-inning walk-off victory. Had the ballpark been only half as full, the victory would have probably been about half as sweet for the Twins -- had they won at all.

So, I can feel for David Price when he expresses his disappointment with the underwhelming crowds in Tampa Bay. On Monday night, after the Rays suffered a 4-0 loss to the Orioles, Price remarked on his Twitter account: "Had a chance to clinch a post season spot tonight with about 10,000 fans in the stands....embarrassing."

Evan Longoria voiced similar sentiments after the game. I feel for them. That doesn't mean I agree with what they said.

Whether or not they intended it, the comments from Price and Longoria come off as potshots at their team's fan base. It's unfortunate, because there are a lot of very passionate Rays fans and I've had the opportunity to meet and interact with several of them. If I were one of those fans, I'd be downright pissed off at these remarks.

While I can see where they're coming from, it's difficult for me to be sympathetic to the plight of these players. Price and Longoria are millionaire athletes who have the privilege of doing what they love in front of thousands of people, and getting paid a substantial amount of money to do it. The game in question, a Monday night contest, featured an attendance of over 12,000 people. While that's not anywhere close to capacity at Tropicana Field, it's not a small number. If I were ever given the opportunity to do what I love in front of 12,000 people I'd probably consider it the highlight of my life. And yet, Price and Longoria both refer to it as "embarrassing."

Despite the obnoxious invective spouted by a radical faction of clueless people out there, the low attendance at Rays games is not evidence of Tampa Bay having "crappy baseball fans." It's a matter of circumstance. The Rays play in a city with a poor baseball demographic, in a terrible excuse for a baseball stadium that is hours away from the most densely populated areas.

More than that, though, this team lacks the history and legacy that tend to comprise the very fabric of a fan following. The Rays have only been around for 12 years, and for most of that time they've been very, very bad. When I was a young lad learning about the game of baseball in a mostly empty Metrodome, and hearing stories from my elders about Harmon Killebrew, and reading Kirby Puckett's Be The Best You Can Be for the 100th time, the Rays were not even in existence. They don't have traditions passed from generation to generation, Hall of Fame players or a city with an ingrained sense of allegiance.

My parents both grew up in Minnesota and have always embraced the game of baseball. You might say I was born a Twins fan. Nobody who can legally drive a car right now was born a Rays fan. It takes time to build a loyal and passionate fan base, and it's especially difficult in an area like Tampa Bay which faces the inherent disadvantages I mentioned above.

But complaining about your own fans is not the way to build that loyalty. Price and Longoria should know better. I'm sure that, once upon a time, they themselves were baseball-obsessed kids sitting in a mostly empty ballpark and simply appreciating the game.

I doubt those kids would have minded playing in front of 12,000 people.

Straightening Out the AL Cy Young Race

Recently, there's been growing debate surrounding this year's American League Cy Young race. The three most popular candidates are David Price, C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez, all of whom are having outstanding years. One could argue that a few other starters deserve to be part of the mix, including our own Francisco Liriano, but for today we'll stick with the trio mentioned above. Let's compare some key numbers for those three hurlers:

Pitcher A: 217 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.4 K/9IP, 2.8 BB/9IP, .653 opp OPS

Pitcher B: 186.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.1 K/9IP, 3.5 BB/9IP, .640 opp OPS

Pitcher C: 225.2 IP, 2.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.5 K/9IP, 2.5 BB/9IP, .599 opp OPS

Undeniably, all three of these pitchers are having terrific seasons, but it should be clear from those numbers who's been best. It's Pitcher C, and it's not even close. He's markedly better than both of his opponents in every single category.

One factor that is not reflected above, however, is the situation surrounding all three players. Pitcher A (Sabathia) pitches for a playoff-bound team with an elite offense, and as a result, his win-loss record sits at 19-6. Pitcher B (Price) works under similar circumstances, and sports a 17-6 record.

Meanwhile, Pitcher C -- which is obviously Hernandez -- plays for a last-place team with a historically terrible offense. This has led him to an 11-11 record despite his spectacular performance on the mound. On 12 occasions this year, Hernandez has pitched seven or more innings, allowed two or fewer earned runs, and come away with a no-decision or a loss. This has happened to Sabathia and Price a combined total of six times.

The Cy Young Award is meant to go to the best pitcher in the league, and there's zero doubt that Hernandez has pitched far better than Sabathia or Price this year. Yet, because of the flawed logic that goes into the voting process, he could well finish third in the voting. That's because the writers who vote on this award have historically weighed W/L as the most important measure of success, despite it being the statistic over which a pitcher has least control.

Sadly, some of the leading voices in the baseball community have been trying to lead fans astray on this matter. Yesterday, Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com posted an article in which he suggests that Hernandez doesn't merit consideration for Cy Young honors due to the fact that he isn't pitching for a playoff-bound team. An excerpt from Morosi's column:

There’s an award for a pitcher such as Hernandez. It’s called the ERA title. Not the Cy Young Award, as voted on by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

To be the best, one must do what Sabathia and Price have all season — compete against the best lineups, in postseason-type atmospheres, before crazed crowds at hitter-friendly ballparks.

Of course, as I pointed out above, Hernandez leads his opponents in not only ERA, but essentially every measurement of pitching aptitude other than win/loss record. I'd certainly disagree with Morosi's second assertion; I'd argue that "to be the best" one simply must be better than everyone else. Hernandez has been. And, ironically, Morosi last year supported the case of rightful Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, who of course pitched a ton of playoff-type games in Kauffman Stadium for the last-place Royals.

In a chat on ESPN.com yesterday, Joe Morgan stated that it's "a joke" that there is even debate about this year's Cy Young race, proclaiming that "the name of the game is to win and [Sabathia has] won," all while ignoring the fact that Sabathia pitches for the top scoring offense in the league while Hernandez pitches for a team whose OPS this year is lower than Nick Punto's career mark. Then he made some point about Cliff Lee not winning games since being traded to Texas while ignoring the fact that Lee has been battling a back injury since switching clubs.

The Baseball Writers Association of America, which votes on the Cy Young Award, hit an all-time low for me back in 2005 when they selected Bartolo Colon over Johan Santana in a situation that was eerily similar to this year's Sabathia/Hernandez juxtaposition. Santana rated significantly better than Colon in essentially every metric other than W/L record, and yet Colon coasted to an easy victory based solely on his 21 wins and his team's success.

The BBWAA seemingly showed that they'd finally moved away from their fixation on win/loss record last year when they awarded Greinke with the Cy Young despite his 16-8 record (not to mention Tim Lincecum in the NL, who finished with just 15 wins). This year, they will undo all that progress if they hand it to the undeserving Sabathia while punishing Hernandez for the crappy offense Seattle's front office put together.

I want to care about the Cy Young Award. I really do. It's an important part of the way the game's history will be written and one day it may be the deciding factor in a Hall of Fame case. (Does anyone doubt that Bert Blyleven would have been inducted long ago if he had a few Cy Youngs sitting on his shelf?)

Unfortunately, it's getting harder and harder to care when the voters show so little consideration for the numbers that actually indicate how well someone has pitched. And to see respected national figures like Morosi and Morgan present the kind of woefully misguided arguments linked above is disheartening, to say the least.

In Control

The White Sox lost to the Tigers today, with Manny Ramirez -- whose offensive production since being acquired at the end of August has amounted to seven singles in 24 at-bats -- grounding out to end the game. By dropping three of four in Detroit this week, while the Twins swept the Royals, the Sox have fallen a full six games out of first place in the AL Central with 22 left to play. If you're into sports betting, your money's probably safe on the Twins at this point.

That's not to say this race is over. We can't easily forget that the Twins faced a similar deficit in the standings one year ago and managed to overtake the Tigers with a fierce push in the final weeks. There are plausible ways that Chicago could work there way back into the thick of this race. If, for instance, the Sox were to pick up a game over the weekend (Chicago hosts the Royals while Minnesota travels to Cleveland) and then sweep the Twins at home next week, they'd shave the deficit down to two games.

But let's be realistic and give our team some credit. It would take a significant collapse on the Twins' part to let the Sox move past them, and they've simply given us no reason to believe that's going to happen. This is the hottest team in baseball, led by a strong pitching staff and an intimidating offense.

If the Twins stay even with the Sox over the weekend and take two of three in Chicago next week, their lead will bulge to seven games with 16 left to play. At that point, even if the Twins played .500 ball the rest of the way, the Sox would have to go undefeated to surpass them in the standings. Not happening.

The White Sox still have a chance to make their last gasp within the next week, so it remains a bit too early to count them out. One week from today, though, it might be time for the Twins to start planning out their postseason rotation

A Familiar Story

When Stephen Strasburg came up earlier this season, he took the league by storm. Whereas many young hurlers go through a sometimes lengthy adjustment period against the world's best hitters, Strasburg was immediately transcendent. He amazingly struck out 14 batters without issuing a walk in his major-league debut. As he moved forward, he continued to dominate opposing lineups, racking up strikeouts while turning in quality start after quality start. His stuff was amazing, allowing him to somehow make veteran star players look totally overmatched. The spectacle seemed like nothing I'd ever seen before.

Only, I had seen it before. In 2006, Francisco Liriano joined the Twins rotation with a similar air of dominance. In his first 12 starts, he went 10-2 with a 1.58 ERA and 83-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 79 2/3 innings. He wasn't quite the strikeout machine that Strasburg has been, but with his extreme ground ball tendencies, he was even more dominant than the Nationals phenom. If you don't believe me, compare the numbers.

Of course, Liriano's amazing rookie performance didn't carry the same level of hype as Strasburg, and for some good reasons. Liriano wasn't a No. 1 overall pick who'd rocketed through the minors in just a couple of months. He hadn't been widely labeled as the game's next great pitcher before he even threw a major-league pitch. Indeed, by the time Liriano joined Minnesota's rotation, he had already acclimated himself to the majors as a member of the Twins' bullpen, and had already accumulated nearly 500 innings in the minors whereas Strasburg was a 21-year-old with only 58 innings or professional experience.

Nevertheless, the devastation that struck Minnesota when it was learned late in that dazzling rookie campaign that Liriano had a torn ligament in his throwing arm and would require Tommy John surgery was eerily similar to the shock currently shaking the nation in the wake of Strasburg's own diagnosis this morning. Just like Liriano, Strasburg's torn ligament was discovered just over three months after he stepped into his team's rotation and began dominating. Just like the Twins, the Nationals will be forced to wait at least a year until their budding ace can return to action.

The blow is a little less severe for the Nationals from a competitive standpoint, as they're not tied up in a fierce postseason race like the Twins were and probably didn't have much of a shot at making the playoffs next year either. The blow to Washington's bottom line and fan base morale, however, is far more severe. Strasburg represented a shining beacon of hope for a franchise that has experienced little success in its six-year existence.


As a person who's been through this before, I wish I could offer words of comfort to those Nationals fans who are surely reeling from today's news. Unfortunately, I can't. The wait for Liriano to return to form was lengthy and frustrating. He first attempted to rejoin to the Twins at the outset of the 2008 season but struggled early on and spent several months in the minors while trying to regain his command. He ultimately returned to the Twins and pitched very well down the stretch, but wasn't the dominating force he was pre-surgery.

The 2009 season was a disaster. Liriano's control problems came to a forefront and he continually battle issues both physical and mental before finishing with a 5.80 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. It wasn't until this 2010 season -- a full three years removed from his surgery -- that Liriano has finally started to pitch like the elite starter he was prior to injuring his elbow. He showed that again last night in thoroughly outperforming one of the game's premier pitchers while helping the Twins pick up a big road victory.

That Liriano has finally returned to the front-line ace tier can be viewed as an encouraging sign for Nats fans; that it took as long as it did has to be harrowing. On the bright side, many starting pitchers have been able to make a full recovery from Tommy John surgery in a much shorter time span. Hopefully Strasburg can follow that path.

However, when I look at the stories of Strasburg and Liriano, I see a lot of similarities. For the sake of Nationals fans and baseball as a whole, let's hope the next chapter for Strasburg doesn't follow suit.

Right Idea, Wrong Approach

I begged for the Twins to sign Orlando Hudson two offseasons ago. This past winter, when they actually did sign Hudson, I was ecstatic. I repeatedly called Hudson the team's biggest offseason acquisition and lauded his ability to upgrade this team at the second base position and at the second spot in the batting order.

Thus far, Hudson has been a disappointment to me. Not just because he's failed to produce much on the field and has fizzled out in several key spots already, but also because of some recent comments he made off the field. In an interview with Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, Hudson implied that the main reason players like Jermaine Dye and Gary Sheffield have failed to find work this season is the color of their skin.

It's an outlandish accusation. Sheffield does indeed have a Hall of Fame caliber resume, but he's 41 with a reputation for pushing people the wrong way, and it doesn't take a tenured scout to see that his bat speed has dropped significantly in recent years. Dye, meanwhile, has turned down offers from multiple clubs this offseason. If he were willing to sign a deal that approximated the one Jim Thome got from the Twins, Dye would have been signed by December. (In fact, he probably could have gotten twice as much as Thome, as Dye reportedly turned down a $3 million offer because he didn't want to settle for a fourth outfielder role.) The reason clubs haven't signed black players like Dye and Sheffield -- not to mention white players like Jarrod Washburn and Joe Crede -- is because they don't want to be stuck overpaying aging players with diminishing skills when those players expect to be getting paid for production they're probably no longer capable of.

Of course, Hudson isn't the first guy with Minnesota ties to become vocal on this subject. Torii Hunter has lamented the dearth of African-American players in the game many times in the past, and made some waves earlier this spring when he told USA Today that dark-skinned Latin players are "impostors" who ostensibly give the false illusion that Major League Baseball's lack of black players is not a problem.

As Greg Doyel pointed out in his excellent article on the topic for CBS Sports today, the percentage of African-American players in the majors is nearly identical to the percentage of African-Americans in the overall U.S. population. Doyel also points -- as many others have -- to the expense of playing baseball as a reason that the sport isn't as popular as it could be among youngsters in the inner-city and urban communities. To his credit, Hunter has backed up his passionate words by putting a lot of his own money into helping create more opportunities for inner-city kids to get on the diamond; certainly that's a lot more helpful than making the type of bizarre accusational statements he -- and now Hudson -- have made.

Today, organizations and fans across baseball are celebrating the amazing accomplishments of Jackie Robinson, who broke baseball's color barrier some 60 years ago. It's certainly an appropriate time to discuss the racial issues which undeniably affect all aspects of society, including baseball. Yet, contrary to what my good friend Twins Geek says, comments like Hudson's and Hunter's don't help advance productive discussion. Claiming that major-league front offices across baseball have some sort of collective bias against American-born black players or that the dark-skinned Latin players who are helping increase the game's diversity are frauds only serves to rile folks up and perpetuate racial tensions.

I think that Hudson and Hunter, along with others who have come forth with similar sentiments, have their hearts in the right place. They look around them and see what they perceive as a small and ever-dwindling percentage of black players in the game, and they want to stem the tide. That's something I can absolutely get behind. But there are better and less contentious ways of addressing this important issue that won't cause the same type of defensiveness and divisiveness. Personally, I think that's what Jackie would have wanted. But maybe that's just me.

Turning the Tables

Flash back two years, to the winter following the 2007 season.

Just one year removed from capturing the AL pennant, the Detroit Tigers were boldly making their move. During the winter meetings, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski pulled the trigger on a blockbuster deal with the Marlins that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Motown in return for a gaudy package of prospects highlighted by Cameron Maybin and Adam Miller. The move came just shortly after Dombrowski had acquired Edgar Renteria from the Braves for a pair of quality pitching prospects.

The Tigers were moving cheap, promising players for established commodities, and were showing little concern with the financial repercussions. A busy offseason for Dombrowski ballooned his team's payroll from $95 million in 2007 to $138 million 2008, positioning them as the highest-spending club in baseball outside of the Yankees.

Meanwhile, the Twins' 07/08 offseason consisted of trading away the league's best pitcher and letting one of their core hitters and clubhouse anchors walk. In both instances, the players were deemed too expensive for the Twins to retain on their limited budget. Despite a few second-tier free agent signings, the Twins saw their budget shrink from $71 million in '07 to $56 million in '08, dropping them into the bottom third of all MLB teams in terms of payroll.

Flash back to present. The Tigers, who fell just a game short of the playoffs this season, are amidst an epic firesale. They shipped off one of their core offensive players in Curtis Granderson and a key starter in Edwin Jackson, fresh off a breakout year. They were forced to let key contributor Placido Polanco walk and weren't even able to offer theType A free agent arbitration and collect valuable draft picks because they couldn't afford the risk of having to pay him several million dollars in 2010 should he accept. There are rumors that the Tigers still aren't done shedding salary, with names like Cabrera and Justin Verlander continuing to spring up in trade speculation.

The nation's economic downturn has hit Detroit hard, and its formerly free-spending baseball club is feeling the effects.

Things look significantly brighter here in Minnesota.

The Twins have ramped up spending recently at an unprecedented level. I wrote last week about how the organization has displayed a dramatic increase in willingness to open the wallet over the past year, whether on the international market (Miguel Angel Sano), in the draft (Kyle Gibson), on players acquired via trade mid-season (Jon Rauch/Orlando Cabrera/Carl Pavano/etc.) or offseason moves (J.J. Hardy/Pavano). In its most recent display of fiscal freedom, the Twins elected to tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players. That includes Jesse Crain, who is in his final year of arbitration and could make close to $3 million after earning $1.7 million this past season. The Twins would have had every excuse to non-tender Crain, given that he's coming off a rather unexceptional year and spending several million dollars on someone who figures to be -- at best -- the third or fourth right-handed option out of the bullpen is a luxury that in the past they've shied away from. Yet, Crain possesses solid upside for next year considering his strong finish this season (2.20 ERA in August/September) and his being almost two years removed from shoulder surgery. That he's seemingly being brought back bodes well.

The Twins' payroll is already approaching $100 million, a notion that seemed borderline absurd on Opening Day this season when that figure sat at $65 million. Even with the big increase in spending that we've already seen, the Twins still claim to have interest in signing another infielder. They also still have yet to work out a new contract for Joe Mauer, which many (including myself) believe they will do before spring training opens next year.

So, the Twins are taking on salary, spending big on international talent, going over-slot to sign draft picks, and likely are on the verge of doling out one of the biggest contracts in league history to retain their star player? All while the rest of the division is pawning off expensive stars and selling out the present for the future in order to cut costs? Is this some sort of parallel universe?

Longtime fans from around these parts can be excused for reacting with some confusion, but what we're seeing are the benefits associated with the move to a new park. I'd posit that these drastic increases may also be attributable in part to a less frugal philosophy held by ownership now that power has shifted from Carl Pohlad -- who passed away early this year -- to his sons.

Whatever the combination of causes, this new situation is a sweet one for Twins fans, and one we've never really experienced before. The Twins still fall far short of the truly big-market clubs, but they're now beginning to resemble a team that can hold its own when it comes to acquiring and retaining talent. This might not put an enormous dent in the disadvantage the Twins feel when trying to measure up to the Yankees and Red Sox of the world, but it puts them in excellent position in an AL Central division where at least three teams are pretty clearly in rebuilding mode.

Right before our eyes, we're seeing the transformation of a franchise. Long known as the division's "Little Engine That Could," the Twins are beginning to emerge as financial heavyweights in the AL Central. As the holidays approach, now seems as apt a time as any for fans to appreciate this unfamiliar feeling.

Following Up on Tuesday's Post

I expected that my post on Tuesday would be controversial. Any time one complains about the nature of Major League Baseball's uneven payroll structure, there are bound to be numerous dissenters. What I didn't expect was that Rob Neyer would feature the post on his blog and send a swarm of peeved Yankees fans over here to spout their disapproval.

Of course I'm glad that Neyer saw fit to bring up the discussion over at this SweetSpot blog, and it was nice to see some outsiders voicing their opinions in the comments section here, even if the majority of those opinions basically boiled down to me being a whiny, know-nothing moron from a fly-over state (I <3 NY!).

What disappoints me is that many of these people seemed to miss the central point of the original post. Perhaps that's my fault for not clearly conveying that point. With that in mind, there are a couple key aspects of argument that I'd like to re-emphasize today:

1) This is NOT just about the Twins and Yankees.

I used the Twins and Yankees as examples because I had just gotten done watching a three-game playoff sweep in which the Yankees threw three starting pitchers who made a combined $36 million this year (compared to three Twins' pitchers who made less than $5 million combined) while sporting a lineup whose 2-through-4 hitters earned a combined $72 million -- more than the Twins' entire payroll.

The general sentiment from Yanks fans seemed to be that I was unfairly singling out the Yankees and/or pouting because my team had just lost. Neither of those things were true.

The Yankees are the most prominent example of baseball's imbalanced financial field, given that their payroll is 33 percent higher than any other team, but the same issues apply to any large-market team that holds a marked advantage when it comes to signing free agents, internal players, draft picks or international talent. For the most part, the revenue advantages of these free-spending teams are far more correlated with the size of their market than the quality of their fans or the devotion of their ownership. It's simply unfair that they should be rewarded with a substantial competitive advantage as a result of where they play.

And this isn't whining. I fully expected the Twins to lose, and they lost. I was frustrated when the Yankees bought three of the top free agents last offseason, I was frustrated watching them win 103 games this season largely as a result of that spending spree, and I was frustrated watching them pound an understandably less stacked team in the first-round of the playoffs. My ranting post was the culmination of plenty of pent-up annoyance with baseball's current system, and the fact that it appeared in the aftermath of this playoff sweep is only because I deemed the timing appropriate.

In truth, the Twins probably aren't the greatest example to illustrate my argument, given that they've enjoyed relative success over the past eight years and could have probably defeated the Yankees in this series if not for some bad breaks and terrible baserunning blunders (which our friends from out east were so eager to point out -- repeatedly). But don't tell me that this team would not be in far better shape if they had an extra $100 million in payroll to throw around. Which brings me to my next point:

2) Higher payroll does not guarantee success, but there is no denying that it provides a distinct inherent advantage.

I can't believe how much energy some people spent trying to produce evidence proving that the Yankees' giant payroll doesn't actually provide them with a meaningful advantage. It is not debatable. If spending more did not make a team better and increase its chances of winning, then the Yankees would not run up a $200 million payroll, and other large-market teams wouldn't spend well over $100 million to assemble their rosters. No one has ever claimed that spending a certain amount of money guarantees wins or World Series titles -- and the Yankees have proven that over the past decade -- but there's no question that having the ability to employ significantly more high-paid players provides an advantage. The best players eventually command the most money, and while baseball's system does keep all players relatively inexpensive in their early years, it's damn near impossible to have a roster stacked full of superstars who haven't yet hit arbitration or free agency. It is not, however, hard to have a roster stacked full of superstars when you can flex a $150-$200 million budget.

One can debate how much of an advantage is gained by perpetually sporting a payroll that is more than twice the size of your opponents, but it's simply ignorant to try and argue that this isn't an advantage.

3. This argument should not have anything to do with the Pohlads.

Many, many people pointed out that the Twins' ownership is one of the wealthiest in sports, and that if they really wanted to they could outspend the Yankees in payroll outright, paying for Target Field in its entirety and bailing out the automobile industry while they're at it. But, in the same breath, many of these same people were quick to argue that baseball is a business.

Don't those two statements run somewhat contradictory to one another? If baseball truly is a business, how could anyone expect an owner to put more into their product than they're getting out of it? Look, I was never a big fan of Carl Pohlad and by no means was as a defense of him or the way he operated this franchise. But it's perfectly fair to expect a team in a smaller market's expenses to be commensurate with its revenue, regardless of the owner's worth, and it's also worth noting that most owners of small-market clubs don't have as much money as the Pohlads, which brings me back to my initial point: this ain't about the Twins. It's about baseball, and all of its overshadowed and unfairly disadvantaged small-market clubs.

To close today's post, I would like to highlight two examples from Tuesday's 50-comment maelstrom which I felt most thoughtfully and eloquently supported the two sides of this debate.

The first, which falls into the anti-cap category, comes from an anonymous commenter:

The beauty of baseball is that the very best teams (regardless of payroll) end up playing .630 ball, and they end up playing a bunch of .530 - .600 teams in the playoffs. Unlike the NBA or the NFL, the best teams don't make it to the championship series every year simply because their advantage of the other teams in the playoffs is marginal, and baseball is a game of funny bounces.

Yankees / Twins was hardly a walkover, and it ultimately came down to the Twins making Little League baserunning mistakes and their $11 million closer spitting the bit. Yes, the Yankees had a better team top to bottom and a larger margin for error, but just by the nature of baseball the lesser team had a legitimate chance to win.

In the big picture, MLB wants NY, Boston, LA, etc. to have the very best teams. Successful teams in the largest, most affluent markets = maximum ticketing, concessions, merchandising, TV, and radio revenue + greater global branding opportunities. Common business sense says you probably want 20 million happy fans in New York than 1 million in Kansas City.

But for those niche markets, devise the "AL Central" and "NL Central" where you let a less talented team with a worse record into the playoffs every year. That way, every fan can dream every spring.

But make sure you institute a "Wild Card" so that you get an extra large market team into the playoffs every year while giving niche market teams another hope to grab onto.

The only way to guarantee that this works and to maximize MLB revenues is to make sure you DON'T have a salary cap. What's wrong with that?

The second comes from Bill Lindeke, who probably did a better job of summarizing my argument than I did in one long-winded post and several meandering rebuttals in the comments section:

Nick... I'm a long-time reader of your blog. I fail to understand why people aren't getting your rather obvious point. I suppose the ideology of fandom is that owners are philanthropists, paying players out of personal or civic pride.

The fact is that, unlike other pro sports, baseball has a very imbalanced financial landscape. The reason Yankees fans are so annoying is that they (willfully) blind themselves to this fact.

We all see what we want to see, but the massive payroll discrepancies in baseball are a crying shame. The vast majority of teams have no real shot at winning in the playoffs most years. The fact that baseball still manages to keep a semblance of competitiveness is a testament to the inherent strength and beauty of the game.

(Incidentally. the same argument about inequality would hold true for the Mets or Cubs even though they're consistently mediocre. If all the big-market teams had decent management, baseball's uneven playing field would be truly intolerable, condemning Pittsburgh, K.C., Baltimore, and the rest to lifetimes of baseball purgatory.)

And, just for good measure, I'll republish this doozy, which I think portrays me very accurately:

awwwwww, boo hoo hoo. I'm a sad sack twins fan named Nick who cant seem to understand baseball economics and the idea of "fair" are not a mutual concept. I guess the twins should have just not even showed up bc I mean it was such a foregone conclusion that the big bad yankees would beat them and not even have to swing the bat. The yanks just show up and teams tremble at their massive salaries and just give up. boo hoo hoo. In the words of a great comic book master.....WORST.....BLOG....EVER.

Baseball's Crooked Playing Field

A week ago, the Twins and Tigers played out their respective regular seasons in a thrilling 12-inning tiebreaker at the Metrodome that ultimately ended in a walk-off victory for the Twins. The historical contest was everything a baseball game should be: two evenly matched teams battling one another to the bitter end in a high-stakes, must-win affair. Both the Twins and Tigers had their own sets of strengths and flaws, forcing each team's manager to engage in a lengthy chess match in an effort to work around his roster's weaknesses and put his best players in position to step up and deliver.

The Yankees/Twins ALDS match-up was a different story entirely. The Twins were severely overmatched from the start in this series, because the Yankees are a far, far better team. And that's not because their roster is more smartly assembled or because they are a more well-coached group of players. It's because a nearly unlimited payroll has allowed them to construct what is essentially an All-Star team. Each player in the Yankees lineup is a quality hitter and a legitimate home run threat. Their pitching staff is star-studded. Their bullpen is lethal.

But it's not difficult to see why this Yankees team is so dominant. Just look at who New York's big contributors were in this ALDS series. In Game 1, the Yankees received a dominant start from C.C. Sabathia, who they purchased for $161 million during the offseason. In Game 2, they got another strong start from A.J. Burnett, another spendy offseason rotation addition. That game ended when Mark Teixeira, their $180 million first base acquisition from the past winter, hit a walk-off homer. And the Yankees' biggest offensive game-changer throughout the entire series, Alex Rodriguez, is an admitted steroid user who made $32 million this season. In the end, the Yankees beat up on a far lesser team and got exactly what they paid for during the offseason: a trip to the ALCS with a World Series berth likely to follow. As we are all surely aware (especially after listening to the TBS announcers ogle over them for the entirety of the series), the Yankees are a great team. But, is that really anything for them or their fans to be proud of?

Major League Baseball's failure to create a remotely even playing field is rather egregious, and I think it's pretty sad that at this point it is widely accepted. The Yankees' $201 million payroll is about 33 percent higher than that of the next closest team -- the Mets -- and more than three times that of the Twins.

Whereas focusing their funds in certain areas forces small/medium-market teams to live with weaknesses in other areas, the Yankees are able to spend at will, filling nearly every position with star-caliber players. Whereas small/medium-market teams necessarily must occasionally let in-house talent walk when it gets too expensive, the Yankees are able to retain any player they want to (imagine how differently this series may have shaken out if the Twins still had Torii Hunter and Johan Santana). Whereas small/medium-market teams must build by drafting wisely and uncovering hidden gems on the interational scene, the Yankees are able to flex their financial muscles by plucking prospects whose signing bonus demands put lower-payroll teams out of the picture and by throwing heaps of cash at all the top international talent.

MLB has taken measures to keep big-market teams from gaining too large an advantage over their smaller-market counterparts, but these efforts have fallen laughably short. Without a draft slotting system, an international draft or a salary cap (or at least a luxury tax system that actually gets meaningful results), the big-market teams have pulled away and gained a massive competitive edge. The Yankees are making a mockery out of baseball's system by piling up a $200 million payroll and buying up all the top players on the free agent market.

Obviously, having a massive payroll does not automatically ensure outstanding results. The Mets ranked second in the majors in team payroll this year and were miserable. The Yankees, prior to this ALDS sweep, hadn't won a postseason series since 2004. People point to the fact that baseball has crowned eight different World Champs in the past nine years as some sort of proof that the system is sound and that the league features plenty of parity, but there is no denying that being able to outspend your opponent threefold provides a massive inherent competitive edge. That's just not right.

The Twins have overcome their budget constraints and have enjoyed more sustained success than almost any other small/medium-market team over the past decade or so. They have consistently posted winning records, they've made the playoffs five times in the past eight years, and they gave the Yankees a run for their money in this most recent ALDS series. But the fact remains that the Twins went 0-10 against the Yankees this year and were outhomered 6-0 by New York's cash-soaked lineup during this past series. People look at the Twins' epic struggles against the Yankees over the past eight years or so -- particularly in New York and in the postseason -- and they talk about how the Twins are mesmerized by the Yankee mystique. I'm not sure I buy that. The Twins are just consistently getting beat up on by much better teams. The Yankees don't make the same type of fundamental errors as the Twins in these games because they have better players. That's what money buys you.

As a fan of the Twins, I feel the burden of this remarkable payroll disadvantage, so I can't even imagine how much heavier that burden must weigh for fans of teams like the Royals and Marlins, who've not been lucky enough to escape from the doldrums.

The token response to these complaints is that life isn't fair. Well, baseball isn't life, it's a game. And it sure as hell ought to be fair.

A Look Around the AL Central

I feel bad that I only managed three posts this week, so I figured a Saturday post was in order. We're about nine weeks into the season now, so it seems a good time to take a look at the competition surrounding the Twins in the AL Central.

Coming into the year, it appeared that the Central would be a wide-open division, which is why many Twins fans held optimism about their team's chances in spite of its significant flaws. Thus far, the division has lived up to its billing. Detroit leads the Central with a 28-25 record -- the worst record of any first-place team in baseball -- and only six games separate them from last-place Cleveland.

The Twins currently sit in second place, 1.5 games behind the Tigers. While near the top of the division, the Twins also must keep an eye on the rearview mirror, where the three other Central squads are none too far behind.

Let's take an early-June status check on the four other AL Central teams.

Detroit Tigers: 28-25 (First place)

The Tigers lead the division, but not for the reasons that one might have guessed coming into the year. Their offense, which as recently as a year ago was vaunted as one of the best in the league, has been rather pedestrian. They rank sixth in the AL in runs per game and 10th in OPS. Those figures aren't awful but they certainly aren't good enough to carry what many assumed would be a rather atrocious pitching staff.

Things is, Detroit's pitching has not been atrocious. They've actually been rather excellent. Among AL clubs, only Seattle is allowing fewer runs on average than Detroit. The Tigers' pitching staff ranks second in ERA and second in WHIP, after last year ranking third-to-last in both categories. That's a pretty incredible turnaround, particularly considering that the Tigers didn't do all that much to upgrade their pitching corps during the offseason. The improvement has come about thanks to phenomenal work of their one major offseason rotation addition -- Edwin Jackson, who is 5-3 with a 2.30 ERA -- as well as a resurgent season from Justin Verlander and a strong debut from Rick Porcello. Meanwhile, Armando Galarraga, who was essentially the only reliable starter on this staff last year, has a 5.31 ERA. Go figure.

Chicago White Sox: 25-29 (Third place)

The Sox have held their own this year in spite of seeing some regression offensively. Carlos Quentin has been dealing with some injuries, and hasn't been nearly the force he was last year when in the lineup. The Sox have gotten paltry production from all their infield positions other than first base (sound familiar?). They've struggled to find an answer in center field, although Scott Podsednik is getting the job done for now. Certainly, though, this isn't the menacing Sox lineup we've seen in the past.

As expected, the rotation has been a mixed bag. Mark Buehrle has been fantastic with a 6-2 record and 2.91 ERA, and Bartolo Colon has been surprisingly effective, but Gavin Floyd has regressed bigtime (who could've seen that coming) and Jose Contreras' attempt to come back from an Achillies injury has been disastrous.

This team looks mediocre to me. That's actually better than I expected them to be, but I don't see them as a real threat unless the Twins and Tigers both collapse.

Kansas City Royals: 23-31 (Fourth place)

The Royals got off to an excellent start this year, winning 18 of their first 29 games and clutching the division lead into mid-May. This led many pundits to become prematurely excited and gloat about how you can't sleep on the Royals, and about how this upstart group led by otherworldly ace Zack Greinke was taking the league by storm. The whole while, I stood by my position that, while young and promising, the Royals just do not have enough offensive talent to compete for a division title.

Sure enough, since winning on May 7 to improve their record to 18-11, the Royals have gone 5-20 and have sunk like a rock in the AL Central. They're currently riding an eight-game losing streak. The reason for the fall? Offense. The Royals rank second-to-last in runs scored, second-to-last in home runs and fourth-to-last in team OPS. During their current 25-game slump, the Royals have averaged less than three runs per game. With that type of performance, Greinke won't have enough miracles up his sleeve to keep them out of last place. It doesn't help that the Royals also can't find answers for the back end of their rotation -- they quickly pulled the plug on the Horacio Ramirez experiment but Kyle Davies, Sidney Ponson and Luke Hochevar haven't been meaningfully better.

There are a number of things to like about this team, particularly on the pitching side, but no hitter has an OPS over 800 and they've gotten a .209/.311/.316 hitting line from the cleanup spot. It doesn't take much to see why this team is in the dregs, and still sinking.

Cleveland Indians: 24-33 (Fifth place)

While I might have been right about the Royals, it appears I was dead wrong about the Indians, whom I picked as my division favorite back in March. Looking back, I don't even know what I liked so much about this team. I guess I figured they'd be able to cobble together a decent rotation behind Cliff Lee but that hasn't been the case. Aaron Laffey has been decent in limited duty as a starter and Carl Pavano has been OK after a rough start to the season, but the rest of the this team's starters have been abysmal. No pitcher outside of those three who has made a start for this team has an ERA lower than 6.16. Fausto Carmona, who I expected to have a bounce-back year (and drafted on two fantasy teams), has been a mess and was demoted to rookie ball after being pounded by the Twins on Thursday. Kerry Wood has been let-down in the closer role and as a whole the Cleveland bullpen ranks 12th in the AL with a 4.93 ERA. In spite of Mark Shapiro's efforts to upgrade that unit during the offseason, it continues to be a huge liability.

Offensively, the Indians have been decent, so if they can get their pitching on track they have a chance to make a bit of a run, but up to this point they have been very, very bad. If they're out of first place by double-digits in July we'll undoubtedly be hearing a lot of Cliff Lee rumors.

The Nicks' Picks 2009

Without further ado, mine and Mosvick's predictions for the winners of each division, the World Series and the major postseason awards.

The Nelson Picks

AL East: New York

AL Central: Cleveland

AL West: Los Angeles

AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay

NL East: New York

NL Central: St. Louis

NL West: Los Angeles

NL Wild Card: Phillies

World Series: NY Yankees over St. Louis

AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters
NL Rookie of the Year: Dexter Fowler

The Mosvick Picks

AL East: Tampa Bay

AL Central: Cleveland

AL West: Oakland

AL Wild Card: New York

NL East: Atlana

NL Central: Chicago

NL West: Arizona

NL Wild Card: Phillies

World Series: Tampa Bay over Arizona

AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke
NL Cy Young: Dan Haren

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez

AL Rookie of the Year: David Price
NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin

National League Preview

At this point, given my infrequent appearances at the blog and my lack of recognizability amongst newer readers of this site, I may be a guest blogger at this point. Regardless, those who have read the site for a long time know that I normally do the National League previews before the season and that won't change this year, despite my continuing and sometimes overwhelming law school obligations. Let's begin:

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs
It's true that the Brewers had a great run last year that should make us take them more seriously, but at the same time, they lost some of the principle movers in that run: C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets. In the meantime, the Cubs added last year's OPS leader in the AL, injury-addled and personally troubled Milton Bradley. Even if he only plays 120 or 130 games, he'll add to an already potent offense that includes Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and a decline-phase Derrek Lee. And don't forget the rotation includes Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster.

Player to watch: Sean Marshall, SP
(Marshall should be the 5th starter this year, winning the spot over Aaron Heilman. His peripherals aren't great, but 58 Ks in 65 innings last year looked good. He should be good for double-digit starts and a decent ERA.)

2. St. Louis Cardinals
The Brewers will be competitive for this second spot, but ultimately, I'm not convinced they have enough starting pitching to grab second place and what could be a possible wild-card spot. The Cards will have Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright back and any offense built around Albert Pujols isn't worth worrying about, even if Ryan Ludwick regresses from a breakout season in 2008. The Cards didn't do much in the offseason, but then again, neither did the Brewers.

Player to watch: Chris Perez, RP
(Now that Jason Isringhausen is gone, Perez seems likely to succeed him as the closer. He's a well-regarded relief prospect with a outstanding fastball, if not the greatest control. Don't expect a top ERA, but he should get saves, strikeouts, and a good ERA. Colby Ramus has an argument here, but I'd expect that breakout to come in another year.)

3. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are a team I want to root for, but I'm just not sure that they are much better than a .500 or so team. Sure, they've got lots of hitters, from Ryan Braun to Prince Fielder to J.J. Hardy, but they have holes too, like Bill Hall and the frustratingly ineffective Rickie Weeks. The Brewers also have good young starters like Yovani Gallardo and Carlos Villenueva but they don't have a real ace and have mediocre leftovers like Jeff Suppan and Matt Bush to round out the rotation. More to the point, they don't have an overwhelming relief corps, with lots of big names (Trevor Hoffman, Braden Looper) but little substance.

Player to watch: Rickie Weeks, 2B
(Weeks has been around for a while and has produced plenty of lofty expectations, but he's yet to play a full season and has not shown his five-tools skills outside of good patience and speed. If he doesn't break out this year, he probably never is going to. Don't expect a high batting average (at least, not over .280), but he should hit with more power and show a good eye at the plate. )

4. Cincinnati Reds
Even though the Astros did well enough in the second half last year to finish above .500, I don't think they'll be repeating it this year. What's the difference between the team? The Reds have much better young talent in pitchers like Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey and hitters like Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. Overall, they probably aren't ready to contend, but don't count out the Reds talent-wise.

Player to watch: Johnny Cueto, SP
(Cueto had a very exciting beginning of the year last year, striking out 10 in seven innings while giving up just one hit. Unfortunately, bad control and fly ball tendencies in a hitter's park worked against him over the year. I wouldn't expect a huge drop in ERA, but Cueto should strikeout plenty again and slowly get a hold of his control.)

5. Houston Astros
One word with the Astros: old. Mainstays, like Lance Berkman, are 33 and getting closer to inevitable decline. It is not so much that Berkman and Oswalt and other Astros veterans are going to fall off the cliff (though, clearly Miguel Tejeda has), but that there are no young stars to replace them. There are gaps all over the place on the Astros team -- from the starting rotation to catcher to center field to everyone in the bullpen outside of the closer, Jose Valverde, who is no guarantee himself.

Player to watch: Hunter Pence, OF
(Pence in some respects already had a breakout in his rookie campaign, but he arguably was below expectations last year, despite knocking out 25 home runs. Pence needs to learn the strike-zone better and learn to utilize his speed (11/21 on steals isn't good), things that he has a good chance to show over this next year.)

6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Even the most optimistic of pundits isn't likely to think the Pirates are going to do well this year. They've started to make the right changes, but it's certainly going to take some time. If nothing else, they have a good young starter in Paul Maholm, a good young closer in Matt Capps, and it is possible that given time, Andy LaRoche could show his skills with a full-time job.

Player to watch: Andy LaRoche, 3B
(It's about time LaRoche showed off his skills in the show, given his good numbers in the minors, where he produced a .294/.380/.517 overall. I'm not sure that LaRoche will ever produce that in the bigs, but he should be able to aproach a .265/.350/.450.)

NL East

1. Atlanta Braves
This pick may seem a little preposterous, but I feel as if the Braves have one shot this year with their current roster to make a run at the NL East and I'm not really overwhelmed by the Phillies or the Mets. Both those teams have holes, but the Braves have a potential outstanding rotation with Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Jair Jurrgens, and their lineup includes Chipper Jones, Brain McCann and Kelly Johnson. I'm not impressed by moves like signing Garrett Anderson, but under the leadership of Bobby Cox, I have to think they can make it work.

Player to watch: Casey Kotchman, 1B
(Kotchman had been a disappointment overall for the Angels, considering that he hit .325/.401/.493 in the minors, but has managed only a .269/.336/.413 line in the majors. Kotchman will never be Prince Fielder, but I would certainly expect a better average, better discipline, and decent power in the future.)

2. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have one of baseball's better lineups, despite losing Pat Burrell (sorry, but Raul Ibanez is not the best replacement), but their pitching worries me and the defending champs don't have me convinced. Yes, they have Brad Lidge and Cole Hamels, who are both incredible, but otherwise, I'm not impressed by Joe Blanton, J.C. Romero, and Brett Myers. And I'm pretty sure that eventually, Jamie Moyer will truly show his age. I just don't think he's the second coming of Hoyt Wilhelm. They'll be good with a lineup including MVP candidates like Chase Utley, but not good enough.

Player to watch: Jayson Werth, OF
(This is more a less a cop-out, since Werth hit .273/.363/.498 in 418 at-bats last year. But, the Phillies don't have a lot of good breakout candidates and Werth hasn't had success for a full year. Given a full year, Werth should be able to hit with power and patience again, and possible approach 30 home runs and 100 RBI. Apologies to Terry Tiffee fans everywhere.)

3. New York Mets
The Mets look good on paper and probably have an excellent chance to win the East, but given what has happened in the past, it is awfully hard to ignore the difference between two halves. If the Mets are a schizophrenic team again, then it will be another hard road to the playoffs. And no, I don't think K-Rod makes much of a difference, since he was underwhelming last year despite his guady save stats. I would expect disappointment again.

Player to watch: Jon Niese, SP
(Niese didn't have a good September appearance last year (7.07 ERA, 14 innings), but he's done well enough in the minors (3.04 ERA in the minors last year) that he should be able to have a strong rookie season with a solid K-rate. Otherwise, the Mets don't have any other clear candidates to break out yet.)

4. Florida Marlins
Don't get me wrong; I like the Marlins. Enough so, that as a team filled with young talent, I'd like to have them as a surprise pick. Their rotation is quite impressive: Ricky Nolasco (who seemed to have a great season that no one noticed), Chris Volstad, Josh Johnson, and Anibal Sanchez. But they don't really have a stable bullpen and outside of Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, they don't have any established hitters, which was only exacerbated by the offseason trades of Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham. Still, don't be surprised if they exceed expectations.

Player to watch: Jeremy Hermida, OF
(Hermida was long a top prospect who had a memorable first big-league at-bat and who looked poised to breakout after his 2007 season. However, he disappointed last year, ending up with a .249/.323/.406 line. Hermida is still only 24, has shown solid patience and power in the past and given one more opportunity, he may surprise.)

5. Washington Nationals
The Nats, after their offseason scandal ending with the firing of Jose Rijo and the resignation of Jim Bowden, seem like the most hopeless team in baseball, competing with the Padres and Pirates. Granted, they signed Adam Dunn, but I'm not sure he'll change too much since his on-base skills and powers may be of less in a lineup with little protection. It seems like it may simply be a question of how many games they'll lose. Ultimately, they seem like the hoarding ground for drama queens and headcases like Scott Olsen, Elijah Dukes, Daniel Cabrera, and others. If nothing else, maybe that will add some intrigue?

Player to watch: Elijah Dukes, OF
(He's clearly has some issues, but as many of those as he has, he is also oozing with talent. Speed, power, and patience are all there for Dukes if he can put the package together. He hit .264/.386/.478 in 276 at-bats, so it seems entirely possible that he can display star talent over the year.)

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
I'm making this pick because I'm fairly confident in the natural growth of Arizona's top young hitters, including Chris Young, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson. Additionally, they have some young pitching talent in Yusmeiro Petit and Max Scherzer to go with the phenomenal 1-2 punch of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. And while the relief corps isn't the best, arms like Tony Pena and Jon Rauch should make a successful one.

Player to watch: Chris Young, CF
(I think it would be easy to pick Justin Upton, since he's almost sure to impress, but Young seems more appropriate. He's shown plenty of talent in his two years with Diamondbacks, but he has yet to show the same combination of power, speed, and patience he showed in the minors. His BA/BIP of .300 (actually average of .248) says that he'll some luck to increase his average, but I think he's a solid bet to make a jump this year.)

2. Los Angeles Dodgers
I like that the Dodgers made some solid offseason moves, signing Manny and Orlando Hudson. Overall, that gives the Dodgers a solid lineup, adding them to the likes of Matt Kemp, James Loney, and Russell Martin. However, I'm not as confident about the pitching. Chad Billingsley is an ace at this point and Clayton Kershaw has plenty of talent, but they lost their second best starter (Derek Lowe) and a successful closer in Takashi Saito and are left with options like Jeff Weaver and Randy Wolf.

Player to watch: Matt Kemp, OF
(Kemp was pretty impressive last year, combining 35 steals with 18 home runs and 38 doubles. Somehow, it wasn't noticed and Kemp was considered by some to be a disappointment. Thus, he's still a breakout candidate to me and given the talent he's shown, I think Kemp can hit 20-25 home runs, with a .300 average and 40 steals. Sounds like a stellar talent.)

3. San Francisco Giants
The Giants get this ranking almost purely on the basis of their standout rotation. They have Randy Johnson, who had quite the eye-opening season for a pitcher his age last year (173 Ks, 184 innings), joining Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain in a pitcher's park. Of course, their only other big signing was Edgar Renteria, who was one of the worst everyday players in baseball last year. The Giants won't hit at all, but they'll pitch enough to be in the middle of the pack in the weak NL West.

Player to watch: Matt Cain, SP
(Let me clarify: this is mostly in response to those who think wins are the best way of statistically evaluating a pitcher's contribution to his team. That luck should change at least enough to a "breakout," as he should be able to produce double-digit wins with his talent. Otherwise, Cain can improve on his ERA by reducing a walk-rate that has not moved much at all in his first three full seasons. If he can do that, he'll probably get more strikeouts and we'll see a season representing what we've expected from him since he came up and first tantalized the league with his talent in 2005.)

4. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies certainly have some good players--young pitchers like Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales and hitters like Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki. They also have mainstays like Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe, as well as ancient Rockie Todd Helton, but they really don't have enough pitching or hitting overall to have much success. Despite their success in the 2007 season, after trading their best player Matt Holliday, they appear to be in rebuilding mode yet again.

Player to watch: Chris Iannetta, C
(Iannetta seems poised for a big season from the catcher's position, as he produced a solid .264/.390/.505 line in 388 at-bats, showing great plate discipline and plenty of power for the position. He's only hit .249 so far in the bigs, but he was a .303/.407/.508 hitter in the minors, so it seems reasonable that his average will come up as well this year.)

5. San Diego Padres
I've already tagged them as one of baseball hopeless teams, so it seems clear I do not think much of them. Perhaps scanning the roster will show you why; there just isn't much there to like. Adrian Gonzalez is a very good hitter and would surely look a lot better if he wasn't in the offense-suffocating environment of Petco Park. Of course, I shouldn't underestimate them -- after all, they have David Eckstein on their team and you know all the intangibles he has. Can't measure those with stats.

Player to watch: Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B
(Kouzmanoff should be a DH in the American League, and not just because he's a terrible fielder but also because he was a .292/.329/.473 hitter on road and a .226/.268/.390 hitter at Petco. Forgetting those issues, Kouzmanoff was a .332/.393/.556 in the minors. As with many of these breakout candidates, simply having a good minor league track record doesn't necessarily mean major-league success, so he could end up a bust. However, given that record, it is reasonably to believe that he'll breakout this year. Anyways, are there many other candidates on the Padres you can point to?)

American League Preview

In the days leading up to the start of the season, we always like to preview each league, with brief overviews of each team and a prediction of how each division will shake out. The tradition has been for me to cover the American League and for my former partner to cover the National League, and we'll look to do the same this year if I can coax Mosvick out of his semi-retirement for a day. For today, a look at the three AL divisions:

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Angels won 100 games last year, and didn't lose much of significance during the offseason. They did a fine job of replacing closer Francisco Rodriguez with the acquisition of Brian Fuentes, and Bobby Abreu figures to be an improvement over the departed Garret Anderson. Ervin Santana will open the season on the disabled list, but keep an eye on him when he returns; he's an emerging ace.

Player to watch: Howie Kendrick, 2B

2. Oakland Athletics

I have questions about the A's starting pitching, but their offense figures to see dramatic improvement this season thanks to the additions of Matt Holliday, Orlando Cabrera and Jason Giambi. This is a team that could really surprise some people this season, but their rotation lacks known quantities past No. 1 starter Justin Duchscherer, so they'll need a few hurlers to step up.

Player to watch: Dana Eveland, SP

3. Seattle Mariners

Under new front office leadership, the Mariners are making baby steps toward returning to competitiveness. They have some nice pieces in place offensively, and the Felix Hernandez/Erik Bedard combo at the top of the rotation can be among the best in the league if both stay healthy. Carlos Silva is definitely in line for a rebound year.

Player to watch: Jeff Clement, C

4. Texas Rangers

It's the same old, same old in Arlington. Once again, the Rangers figure to field a quality lineup, but their rotation is hardly inspiring. Their ostensible "ace," Kevin Millwood, has posted an ERA over 5 in each of the past two seasons and there's a lot of mediocrity behind him on the depth chart.

Player to watch: Nelson Cruz, RF

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians

The Central is a wide-open division but right now the Tribe seems best poised to come out on top. The addition of Mark DeRosa fills an infield hole and Kerry Wood could cure a long-standing headache at the closer position. Cliff Lee's regression should be offset by Fausto Carmona's improvement, and Anthony Reyes may be on the verge of a breakout season. If Joe Mauer is out for a significant portion of the season, Grady Sizemore is the division's best position player.

Player to watch: Shin-Soo Choo, RF

2. Minnesota Twins

The Twins are neck-and-neck with the Indians in terms of talent, in my mind, but Minnesota just didn't do much to improve on its areas of deficiency during the offseason, putting them a step behind Cleveland. The bullpen figures to be a problem area and there isn't much reliable depth behind the starting five in the rotation.

Player to watch: Jason Kubel, DH

3. Detroit Tigers

The offense remains potent and I actually see the rotation rebounding quite a bit this year. In fact, a starting five consisting of Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Armando Galarraga, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello could be very solid, though Porcello is likely to open the season in the minors. Still, the bullpen remains a concern -- particularly if Joel Zumaya can't get healthy -- and the combination of advanced age and lack of depth across the roster could spell trouble.

Player to watch: Rick Porcello, SP

4. Kansas City Royals

Like the rest of the AL Central, the Royals are strong at the top of the rotation thanks to Gil Mecehe and Zack Greinke, but they'll have a tough time winning a bunch of games as long as they're relying on guys like Horacio Ramirez and Kyle Davies in the bottom half. I think they'll score more runs this year thanks to improved play from Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, but the lineup in general is still badly lacking on-base skills. The Royals have the divisions best bullpen, but will have a tough time building leads in the first place. A .500 record is in sight, but not a division title.

Player to watch: Billy Butler, DH

5. Chicago White Sox

The Sox are due for a tumble this year. Mark Buehrle and John Danks are the real deal, but I'm not high on Gavin Floyd. Bartolo Colon isn't likely to light the world on fire, nor are any of his potential replacements, so Jose Contreras is a real wild card for this club. Offensively, the White Sox are just another year older.

Player to watch: Matt Thornton, RP

AL East

1. New York Yankees

The Bombers aren't looking to get used to spending their Octobers at home, so they went out and spent ridiculous money this offseason to bring in some top free agents. Unlike the typical Steinbrenner winter splurge, I actually think the Yankees made some good moves this offseason. Mark Teixeira is a tremendous offensive talent, C.C. Sabathia should slot well at the top of this rotation and Nick Swisher is a great fit for this club. A.J. Burnett could prove to be a force if he stays healthy, and if he doesn't the Yankees have some pretty good starting pitching depth to back him up.

Player to watch: Joba Chamberlain, SP

2. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays seemingly came out of nowhere to capture the AL pennant last year, but their formula is not one that is conducive to a one-year wonder. The Rays feature lots of great young offensive talent, boast a rotation that is very strong one-through-five, and play excellent defense. They're probably the second-best team in the AL, but they'll have to settle for a Wild Card while playing in the same division as the Yanks.

Player to watch: David Price, SP

3. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are one of three stellar teams in this division, but I see them as the odd one out because they're just not quite as good as the Yankees or Rays. The Red Sox won't have trouble scoring runs with David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay filling the middle of the lineup, and they boast a strong rotation along with a great bullpen, but to me they don't quite stack up to the two other sluggers in this division.

Player to watch: Jed Lowrie, SS

4. Toronto Blue Jays
There's a pretty substantial drop-off from the Red Sox to the Jays. Toronto has one of the AL's best starter headlining its rotation in Roy Halladay and I like Jesse Litsch, but the back end of this rotation doesn't do much for me and the lineup lacks punch.

Player to watch: Adam Lind, LF1

5. Baltimore Orioles
I was tempted to rank the Orioles ahead of the Jays because I like the young talent they've got assembled on offense. Nick Markakis can be a true star in this league, Adam Jones has tremendous athleticism and Matt Wieters is capable of stealing Joe Mauer's "Best Catcher in the AL Title" as soon as this season. But, this pitching staff is just horrendous. Their No. 1 starter is Jeremy Guthrie, a guy who posted a 3.63 ERA last year and is due for some regression. Adam Eaton and Danys Baez figure to be starters for this team. Yeesh.

Player to watch: Matt Wieters, C

Is KC For Real?

Yesterday, I was perusing my favorite blog -- that of Kansas City Star columnist Joe Posnanski -- and I noticed a series of polls on the right side of the page. There were three polls, asking who the reader thought would win each division in the American League. I skipped straight to the Central Division. While I honestly would probably pick the Indians to win the division right now, I went ahead and picked the Twins anyway. The results popped up, and the Twins ranked second, holding 28 percent of the vote. They trailed the Indians, who held 37 percent. This struck me as totally fair and unsurprising. What did surprise me was the team sitting directly behind the Twins in the polling. It wasn’t the Tigers and it wasn’t the White Sox. It was the Royals.

Now, being that Posnanski is a writer from Kansas City, it stands to reason that a large portion of his readership also hails from KC, which would help explain the results. However, Royals fans have generally been pretty realistic about their team’s poor chances in past years. This team seems to be generating some real excitement, and not just in their hometown. Earlier this week, Star Tribune beat writer Joe Christensen penned an article on his blog in which he opined that the Royals are “quietly turning into a legitimate threat to everyone else in the AL Central.” More and more, the Royals are turning into a popular sleeper pick in the American League, drawing comparisons to the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. Are these claims justified?

When charting the competition in the AL Central back in January, I was critical of the offseason moves made by Royals GM Dayton Moore. That remains true, but there’s no denying that he has pieced together a formidable bullpen. Joakim Soria is absolutely one of the top closers in the league, and their recent signing of Juan Cruz (same old, same old) adds a top-notch setup man to help lock up the final innings. Add in quality veteran left-hander Ron Mahay, hard-throwing righty Robinson Tejeda and the overpaid but serviceable Kyle Farnsworth, and you’ve got the best bullpen in the division.

Alas, the Royals should have no trouble protecting late leads. Of course, that does them little good if they can’t build leads in the first place. Much has been made of the 1-2 punch atop the Royals’ rotation, and while I was once pushing that wagon, I now feel as though the duo of Gil Meche and Zack Greinke has become somewhat overrated. Both have turned into very solid pitchers, but I don't think I'd take those two over Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, and I'm not entirely sure I'd take them over Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona. And I certainly like the back ends of both Minnesota’s and Cleveland’s rotations much more than Kansas City’s. I just have a hard time believing a team that relies on Horacio Ramirez and Kyle Davies as regular contributors in its rotation can realistically aspire to win a division.

Offensively, the Royals just don’t have enough. There are some decent hitters here, but unless someone like Alex Gordon or Billy Butler turns a corner, the lineup lacks any elite talent.

Hyping the Royals as a sneaky pick to win the division is becoming somewhat trendy amongst sportswriters, but it’s just not realistic. Comparisons to last year’s upstart AL Champs are misguided; the Rays were loaded with top-notch talent that had accumulated over many years through strong drafts and savvy transactions. The Royals are a reasonably talented group of youngsters without the depth or star power to make a legitimate splash at this point. In a wide open AL Central, the Royals certainly have a shot at another fourth-place finish and could even sneak up to third, but this isn’t a team built to win a division. Not yet, anyway.