Hardly a Breakout Night

Delmon Young picked up his first extra-base hit since April 22 in last night's 4-2 win over the Rockies. He had two of them, in fact, as he doubled twice in a 3-for-4 effort. That's not to say the left fielder's night was all that encouraging.

Young's biggest problem this year has been an inability to get the ball up off the ground, as his ground ball percentage of 62.7 ranks him second in the AL behind Julio Lugo. Despite the three-hit game last night, this issue persisted. His first hit was a dribbler to second base which he beat out for a single, while his doubles were both hard hit grounders down the baselines (one to left and one to right).

Some have mused that perhaps playing in the thin Colorado air will help Young finally hit his first home run, but I think he'd have to be playing on the moon to get any of these hits over the fence.

The Truth About Boof

I was going to spend today's post writing about a costly lack of fundamentals that caused the Twins to lose three straight games against the Blue Jays this week, thus putting a disappointing cap on a homestand that started out so promisingly. But instead, there's another topic I'd like to delve into. And that is Boof Bonser.

After his latest poor outing on Wednesday night, fans are turning on Bonser in droves. For whatever reason, it seems like much of the fan base has always had it in for Boof, and his latest three-game slump has brought complaints to a fever pitch. The Twins generally have a fairly intelligent and patient group of followers, so I have to say I'm a little surprised by what I view as an extremely unfair fan response to Bonser's struggles. Not only would a demotion to the bullpen or minors for Bonser be reactionary and unwarranted, it would be downright stupid.

Bonser's last three starts have been ugly, there's no doubt about it. During that span, he has allowed 16 earned runs over 16 innings for a 9.00 ERA. Yet, it seems to me that the fans who are complaining loudly about Bonser's performance this year are either plagued by short-term memory or are actively choosing to ignore the good things he's done. Over his first six outings of the season, Bonser tossed five Quality Starts, though he gained only two wins thanks to some lousy run support. Bonser finished the month of April with an ERA under 4.

Even with his past three starts taken into account, Bonser's numbers for the season really aren't that bad when you take a deeper look. Yes, he is 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA, but his case illustrates a perfect example of why win/loss record and ERA are not the most telling measures of a pitcher's performance, in spite of the fact that they are the ones most often quoted in the media.

Let's compare the performances of Bonser and the team "ace" Livan Hernandez on the season. As I mentioned, Bonser has a 2-5 record and an ugly 5.37 ERA through nine starts, whereas Hernandez has surprised everyone by going 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA over the same number of starts. Looking at those numbers, one could easily conclude that Hernandez has been the better pitcher. But taking a look at some more intuitive statistics, we'll find that this isn't necessarily true:

	Bonser	Hernandez
IP	52	57.2
K/BB	33/15	21/11
HR Allowed	5	9
Opp. OPS	700	820
FIP	3.92	4.21
xFIP	4.48	4.59

Bonser and Hernandez have both gotten roughly two strikeouts for each walk, but opposing hitters have slugged just .390 against Bonser, as opposed to .485 against Hernandez. This is a big part of the reason that fielding-independent statistics like FIP and xFIP indicate that the two pitchers have been a whole lot closer in performance than their win-loss record or ERA will tell us.

Now, to be fair, I'll note that Bonser is likely to start giving up more home runs, because his current 7.8 percent home run/fly ball rate is unsustainably low (Hernandez's is 13.1), but it's also worth noting that Bonser is currently only inducing ground balls at a 38.4 percent rate after posting percentages of 45 and 41.7 in his first two seasons, so we can expect him to cut down on the fly balls to some degree. Meanwhile, Hernandez's current 42.7 percent ground ball rate is likely to come down given that he hasn't posted a GB% over 40 since 2004. Moreover, I suspect that Bonser's K-rate will rise at least a bit, while Hernandez isn't real likely to start missing any more bats with his 85-mph "heat."

All of this is a very long-winded way of saying that Bonser has not pitched as poorly as his numbers indicate, and that there's actually a pretty good argument that he has pitched at least as well as Hernandez. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not one of the people that swears by statistics like FIP and DIPS to the point where I blissfully ignore reality. Hernandez has allowed fewer runs and has helped the Twins win more games, and he deserves commendation for that. But there is plenty of reason to believe that the hefty Cuban is due for some decline while Bonser improves, so one month from now I think we could very easily be hearing the same cries of outrage directed at Hernandez. And I hope people will be counting their lucky stars that Bonser wasn't sent down to Rochester.

Slowey Slowly Getting There

Last night, Kevin Slowey struck out the side in the top half of the first and went on to cruise for a few innings before giving up a pair of RBI doubles with two outs in the fourth. Slowey recovered and pitched a 1-2-3 fifth, but in the sixth, after being worn down by a 15-pitch at-bat against Scott Rolen, he left a pitch out over the plate against Matt Stairs which was driven over the baggy in right field. That was the end of Slowey's night, his final line: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K.

Through three starts, Slowey sits with an 0-3 record and a 5.79 ERA. But, things aren't as bad as they seem. Opposing hitters are only batting .241 against him, and he has an 11-to-2 strikeout to walk ratio in 14 innings this season. Over three outings, his ERA has gone from 8.10 to 6.48 to 5.79. He has good peripherals and he's a good pitcher. The ERA will continue to come down.

One other note: after they both homered last night, Carlos Gomez and Jason Kubel have eight home runs between them. They also have eight walks between them. Sigh.

Ever-Growing Gomez

As a kid at the ballpark, I was always most fascinated by speedy players who could put the ball in play and fly down the first base line. I remember being very fond of Cristian Guzman in his early days, marveling his ability to beat out routine grounders to shortstop and fly around second base to turn a textbook double into an exhilarating triple.

As I've aged and learned more about the game of baseball, I've come to realize that players who are exciting and athletically gifted sometimes do not produce enough to actually be considered "good." Nevertheless, Carlos Gomez is a player that I've always gotten giddy about. From the moment his name began to pop up in Johan Santana trade rumors, I felt pings of excitement. Back in December when Mets GM Omar Minaya told the Associated Press that he felt he could be a player in the Santana Sweepstakes, I said that while most people would likely be skeptical of a Mets package that didn't include shortstop Jose Reyes, "I'm pretty high on outfield prospects Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez (especially Gomez)." In the comments section for that post, I mentioned that Twins fans "would love having [Gomez] here -- he's a lot of fun to watch."

As the offseason progressed, Gomez's inclusion in a package for Santana became more and more realistic. On Jan. 10, Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune wrote an article mentioning that the Mets had offered Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey for Santana (a fine piece of reporting by Christensen to nail the exact package nearly three weeks in advance of the actual trade). In analyzing the proposed package, I had the following to say about Gomez:

I'm higher on Gomez than most and I like his chances to turn into a Jose Reyes type player. At 22, he's one of the fastest players in all of baseball, which makes him a very exciting player to watch, and I believe he'll build on his patience and power, both of which are fairly meager at this point. The lack of plate discipline is particularly alarming, as he'll never be able to put his blazing speed to good use unless he can get on base at a decent rate, but he is young and raw.

When Bill Smith pulled the trigger on a trade that sent Santana to the Mets for the aforementioned package, I was a bit underwhelmed with the overall return for baseball's best pitcher. Nevertheless, I was clearly glad to see Gomez's name included in the deal.

Through the first 37 games of the 2008 season, the experience of watching a 22-year-old Gomez start regularly has been everything I'd expected it to be: exciting, frustrating, humorous, torturous. He has struck out more than seven times as often as he's walked, his .299 on-base percentage is brutally inadequate for a lead-off hitter, and he's had some line drives eat him up in center field while also air-mailing numerous throws to the infield. Yet, at the same time, Gomez is tied with Justin Morneau for the team lead in extra-base hits, he is tied for the American League lead in stolen bases, and he's displayed terrific range in center field while making several Web Gem catches.

Since being benched for a day after striking out four times in an 0-for-5 effort against Oakland on April 22, Gomez has batted .333/.382/.529 with 12 runs scored and eight RBI in 12 games. The strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span (11-to-3) was still far from desirable, but Gomez has shown some improvement.

I've bristled in the past when people have suggested that Gomez should be sent down to the minors. In part that is because I feel there's no logical basis for that argument, but a part of it is also that I truly enjoy watching the kid play. Even beyond his exciting style of play, there are a lot of little things to like about Gomez, from his exaggerated throwing motion to his humorous accent; from his lighthearted cockiness to the way he grabs and steadies his helmet as he flies out of the batters box on a hit.

Gomez is a project, and he's certainly far from a finished product. But his tools are on display on a nightly basis, and watching him play is something I look forward whenever I sit down to watch a Twins game. Putting aside the poor on-base skills, the botched bunt attempts and the numerous fundamental mistakes, Gomez is a tremendously gifted athlete with a lot of upside, and watching him play brings me back to a time when the game seemed a whole lot more simple. And maybe a little more fun.

A Wild Weekend

Perhaps the best part about the Twins series with the Red Sox this weekend is that it isn't over yet.

These have just been some fun games to watch. On Friday night, the two teams battled all night long, but eventually it appeared that Boston would come out on top when they sent their dominating closer out to protect a one-run lead in the ninth. The Twins spoiled Jon Papelbon's save though, putting runners on second and third and then getting a game-winning hit from the most unlikely of suspects, Mike Lamb. (Lamb carried some momentum into the next two games, going 4-for-7 on Saturday and Sunday.) On Saturday, the Twins got six great innings from Glen Perkins, who was making his first major-league start, but he surrendered a pair of homers to start the seventh and those ended up sealing a loss for him and the team. On Sunday, the Twins jumped out early against Tim Wakefield, but the Red Sox and their punishing offense kept coming back and wouldn't let the Twins get comfortable. In the ninth inning, it looked like Boston might get some payback for Friday night by coming back against Joe Nathan, but the Twins closer ended up working out of a jam and shutting the door on a 9-8 Twins victory.

I truly think that the Red Sox are the class of the American League. Prior to the season, I bet a friend 10 dollars that they'd be in the World Series. (Granted, that's not exactly a lot of money, but he didn't give me any odds.) Their roster is basically intact after winning the World Series last year, and they've certainly played like champions thus far, with a 24-15 record entering yesterday's contest. The fact that the Twins have played relatively evenly with this Boston club over the first three games of this series is impressive to me.

I've been thoroughly entertained with this series up to this point. Tonight's 6 o'clock match-up pits the veteran Livan Hernandez against the young gunner Clay Buchholz. Hopefully this game can prove to be a fitting finale for this crazy series.

When It Rains, It Pours

It's been a roller-coaster of a week for the Twins. During the weekend, they pulled off an impressive sweep over the high-powered Tigers at the Metrodome, extending a win streak to five games and launching themselves into first place in the division. Then, on Tuesday, they played their worst game of the season in Chicago, coming within two outs of being no-hit by Gavin Floyd and falling 7-1. They came back the next night with a phenomenal effort -- a 13-1 victory over the White Sox highlighted by a Carlos Gomez cycle and nine unexpectedly wonderful innings from Livan Hernandez. Last week, the Twins-coaster took a violent dive. The 6-2 Twins loss was tough to take, but it was nothing compared to the cringing pain undoubtedly felt by each fan when Pat Neshek walked off the field in the eighth inning with an elbow injury.

I wasn't watching the game when Neshek's injury occurred (you know, last week of classes), but reports indicate that he felt a pop, and while chatting later in the evening with Aaron Gleeman, he mentioned to me that Neshek's expression was "more like disgust than pain." Those signs all point to Neshek likely being out for a very long time, which is bad news for this baseball team. After a rough start to the season, Neshek was settling in and starting to look more like the dominant force he has been for most of the past two seasons; he was almost certainly the team's best reliever behind Joe Nathan.

As much as I'm a huge fan of Neshek, I've always viewed him as something of a ticking time bomb. His delivery just seemed so dangerous to me -- he throws almost completely with his arm and really snaps his elbow. This is interesting, because he actually started throwing in this style as a result of another injury suffered in his high school days. He's gotten by just fine on his new delivery up until now, but yesterday's sickening "pop" has the unfortunate makings of a career changer. Whether the elbow injury came about as a result of his mechanics or was simply a freak injury is awfully difficult to say, but for the time being I'll just cross my fingers and hope that his season isn't over.

Neshek is almost assuredly headed for the disabled list, so it will be interesting to see who the Twins bring up. There are a few options in Rochester, ranging from Ricky Barrett to Carmen Cali to Mariano Gomez. Cali is far from exciting, but Barrett and Gomez are both pitching well this year, and either one would potentially provide the Twins with a solid additional lefty out of the pen to complement Dennys Reyes. It's also possible that Glen Perkins could wind up in the bullpen upon Scott Baker's return from the DL, in the event that Perkins has some success during his upcoming stint in the Twins rotation.

Neshek's absence will mean that another right-handed reliever is going to need to step up and become a contributor in the late innings. Matt Guerrier, who has brought his ERA down from 9.53 to 3.44 over his past eight appearances, is certainly the most likely candidate considering his success last year in the late-innings role. But it would sure be nice if a guy like Juan Rincon or Jesse Crain could raise their game and become a reliable option.

The Twins bullpen suffered a major blow yesterday. Neshek's injury hits hard because I know him to be a really nice guy, and of course he is a member of the blogosphere. I hope that the injury is less serious than it first appeared and that he's able to rejoin the team at some point this summer. And while he's gone, I hope the bullpen can hang together, because from the looks of it, late leads for the Twins just became a lot less safe.

An Odd Little Game

Now that's how you get back on track.

One day after nearly being no-hit by Gavin Floyd, the Twins came out and pummeled the White Sox 13-1 last night. The game was delayed for nearly two hours due to a rain-storm, but those who stayed up and stuck around were treated to some interesting sights. Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle, Livan Hernandez tossed a complete game, Nick Punto drove in five runs... indeed, this one featured plenty of peculiar occurrences.

Much will no doubt be made of Gomez's cycle, which was pulled off in reverse order (home run, triple, double, single) and was the Twins' first since 1986. Personally, I don't find hitting for the cycle to be a huge accomplishment as much as a neat little statistical anomaly, but I'll admit that it's pretty cool and a perfect exemplification of the things that make Gomez such an exciting player. After watching the Twins consistently push their "piranha" approach, it's nice to see a player who bases his game on speed but can actually hit for some power. Since being benched for one game after striking out four times in a game against the A's on April 22, Gomez has batted .433 with an .867 slugging percentage. His hitting line for the season is up to a respectable .282/.306/.427. Still think he should be sent to the minors, Corey? :-)

The Twins picked up some offensive steam against the Tigers over the weekend, but hit a wall in their first game against the White Sox. It was great to see them break out again last night. Today Kevin Slowey makes his first start since April 3. Should be interesting to see how he fares.

Apologies for the abbreviated post today, but I'm amidst my last week of college and I'm a bit overwhelmed.