Straightening Out the AL Cy Young Race

Recently, there's been growing debate surrounding this year's American League Cy Young race. The three most popular candidates are David Price, C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez, all of whom are having outstanding years. One could argue that a few other starters deserve to be part of the mix, including our own Francisco Liriano, but for today we'll stick with the trio mentioned above. Let's compare some key numbers for those three hurlers:

Pitcher A: 217 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.4 K/9IP, 2.8 BB/9IP, .653 opp OPS

Pitcher B: 186.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.1 K/9IP, 3.5 BB/9IP, .640 opp OPS

Pitcher C: 225.2 IP, 2.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.5 K/9IP, 2.5 BB/9IP, .599 opp OPS

Undeniably, all three of these pitchers are having terrific seasons, but it should be clear from those numbers who's been best. It's Pitcher C, and it's not even close. He's markedly better than both of his opponents in every single category.

One factor that is not reflected above, however, is the situation surrounding all three players. Pitcher A (Sabathia) pitches for a playoff-bound team with an elite offense, and as a result, his win-loss record sits at 19-6. Pitcher B (Price) works under similar circumstances, and sports a 17-6 record.

Meanwhile, Pitcher C -- which is obviously Hernandez -- plays for a last-place team with a historically terrible offense. This has led him to an 11-11 record despite his spectacular performance on the mound. On 12 occasions this year, Hernandez has pitched seven or more innings, allowed two or fewer earned runs, and come away with a no-decision or a loss. This has happened to Sabathia and Price a combined total of six times.

The Cy Young Award is meant to go to the best pitcher in the league, and there's zero doubt that Hernandez has pitched far better than Sabathia or Price this year. Yet, because of the flawed logic that goes into the voting process, he could well finish third in the voting. That's because the writers who vote on this award have historically weighed W/L as the most important measure of success, despite it being the statistic over which a pitcher has least control.

Sadly, some of the leading voices in the baseball community have been trying to lead fans astray on this matter. Yesterday, Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com posted an article in which he suggests that Hernandez doesn't merit consideration for Cy Young honors due to the fact that he isn't pitching for a playoff-bound team. An excerpt from Morosi's column:

There’s an award for a pitcher such as Hernandez. It’s called the ERA title. Not the Cy Young Award, as voted on by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

To be the best, one must do what Sabathia and Price have all season — compete against the best lineups, in postseason-type atmospheres, before crazed crowds at hitter-friendly ballparks.

Of course, as I pointed out above, Hernandez leads his opponents in not only ERA, but essentially every measurement of pitching aptitude other than win/loss record. I'd certainly disagree with Morosi's second assertion; I'd argue that "to be the best" one simply must be better than everyone else. Hernandez has been. And, ironically, Morosi last year supported the case of rightful Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, who of course pitched a ton of playoff-type games in Kauffman Stadium for the last-place Royals.

In a chat on ESPN.com yesterday, Joe Morgan stated that it's "a joke" that there is even debate about this year's Cy Young race, proclaiming that "the name of the game is to win and [Sabathia has] won," all while ignoring the fact that Sabathia pitches for the top scoring offense in the league while Hernandez pitches for a team whose OPS this year is lower than Nick Punto's career mark. Then he made some point about Cliff Lee not winning games since being traded to Texas while ignoring the fact that Lee has been battling a back injury since switching clubs.

The Baseball Writers Association of America, which votes on the Cy Young Award, hit an all-time low for me back in 2005 when they selected Bartolo Colon over Johan Santana in a situation that was eerily similar to this year's Sabathia/Hernandez juxtaposition. Santana rated significantly better than Colon in essentially every metric other than W/L record, and yet Colon coasted to an easy victory based solely on his 21 wins and his team's success.

The BBWAA seemingly showed that they'd finally moved away from their fixation on win/loss record last year when they awarded Greinke with the Cy Young despite his 16-8 record (not to mention Tim Lincecum in the NL, who finished with just 15 wins). This year, they will undo all that progress if they hand it to the undeserving Sabathia while punishing Hernandez for the crappy offense Seattle's front office put together.

I want to care about the Cy Young Award. I really do. It's an important part of the way the game's history will be written and one day it may be the deciding factor in a Hall of Fame case. (Does anyone doubt that Bert Blyleven would have been inducted long ago if he had a few Cy Youngs sitting on his shelf?)

Unfortunately, it's getting harder and harder to care when the voters show so little consideration for the numbers that actually indicate how well someone has pitched. And to see respected national figures like Morosi and Morgan present the kind of woefully misguided arguments linked above is disheartening, to say the least.

Handicapping the AL Cy Young Race

At one point during the FOX broadcast of the Twins/White Sox game on Saturday, a graphic came up displaying the candidates for the American League Cy Young Award. The players listed on FOX's graphic were Chien-Ming Wang, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, C.C. Sabathia and Justin Verlander. I found this list rather curious, as it contained two players that, in my opinion, don't belong anywhere near the top five (Wang and Verlander) while excluding two players whom I would rank in the top four (Kelvim Escobar and Johan Santana). Neither Wang nor Verlander ranks in the top ten in the AL in ERA, but both play in big markets and get lots of run support, two factors which I suspect have fueled their hype. This list isn't the only one that has had me scratching my head.

Kevin Hench contributed an article to FoxSports.com this weekend outlining his top ten Cy Young contenders in the AL, and he somehow managed to leave Santana completely off the list. Much like in 2005, Santana seems to be getting widely ignored despite having the credentials to be a top contender.

As usual, baseball writers everywhere seem to be putting way too much stock into that W statistic while ignoring many others that are much more indicative of a pitcher's success.

With about three weeks left in the season, here's my list of the top five Cy Young contenders in the AL as I currently see them.

5. Dan Haren: 196 IP, 14-7, 3.03 ERA, 168 K / 50 BB, .240 BAA, 1.18 WHIP
Haren got off to a great start and was the American League's starting pitcher in the All-Star game, but he has seen some expected regression in his numbers. After going 10-3 with a 2.30 ERA and .205 BAA before the All-Star break, Haren is 4-4 with a 4.46 ERA and .298 BAA since. He should be judged on his season as a whole, and the overall numbers are still good (especially the ERA, which still leads the league by a hair), but his peripherals are underwhelming and I suspect he'll continue to decline a bit here in the final weeks of the season.

4. Kelvim Escobar: 180.1 IP, 16-7, 3.04 ERA, 150 K / 60 BB, .242 BAA, 1.23 WHIP
Escobar has had a very surprising season, putting himself right in the mix as a Cy candidate despite holding a career ERA above 4. Escobar was terrific between the months of July and August, going 6-3 with a 2.01 ERA during that span. His peripheral numbers aren't great, and he has struggled with his control at times, but Escobar has come up big for the Halos this year and he definitely deserves to be in this conversation.

3. Josh Beckett: 181.2 IP, 18-6, 3.27 ERA, 173 K / 36 BB, .245 BAA, 1.14 WHIP
My guess is that Beckett will end up winning the award, because he plays in Boston and leads the league in that pesky Wins statistic. And I don't mean to disparage Beckett by ranking him third, because he is having a career year and he has been crucial to Boston's success. Yet, Beckett's numbers don't sufficiently wow me enough to consider him top Cy material. He ranks seventh in ERA and in strikeouts, fourth in WHIP, eighth in opponents' batting average, and sixth in opponents' OPS. He has also had some durability issues, and ranks just 18th in the AL in innings pitched.

2. Johan Santana: 201 IP, 15-11, 3.09 ERA, 213 K / 46 BB, .224 BAA, 1.06 WHIP
I just can't figure how anyone can possibly not consider Santana to be at least among the top three contenders in this race. It's true that he's having a down year by his standards, but his numbers are still excellent in relation to his peers. Santana ranks third in ERA, second in strikeouts (he'll likely be first soon, since Erik Bedard is now done for the season), second in BAA, and fifth in opponents' OPS. He's not even all that far off the lead in Wins, as he trails the leader Beckett by just three. A lot of people hold it against Santana that he has given up a league-leading 30 home runs, but who cares how he's giving up runs as long as he's not giving up very many? I think it's a testament to his skill that he can give up so many homers and still give up so few runs overall.

1. C.C. Sabathia: 220 IP, 17-7, 3.15 ERA, 185 K / 33 BB, .260 BAA, 1.14 WHIP
This is an instance where I am going to look past the numbers to some extent. Sabathia isn't going to blow anyone away with his ERA, strikeout rate or batting average against, but he has been an absolute workhorse for the Indians this year. He leads the league in innings pitched by a fairly wide margin, and is averaging over seven innings per start. He leads the league in hits allowed, but that tends to happen when you rack up so many innings. He has offset the high number of hits by allowing just 33 walks for an infinitesimal BB/9 rate of 1.35. It pains me to pick Sabathia, because I really don't like him, but he's been the class of the AL this year in my opinion.

Second Half Magic

For some reason, there is a group of people--we'll call them "crazy"--who believe that Johan Santana is not having a year worthy of another Cy Young and that there is "something wrong with him." Obviously, this is absurd, but clearly it has some power and enough people believe it, as it took Jim Leyland (and not the players' vote) to get Johan Santana on the All-Star roster. You heard that correctly. Somehow, all the opposing hitters that Santana has been mowing down for years now decided that he just wasn't himself this year and voted others, like Josh Beckett, ahead of him.

Sure Beckett is having a good year, but the only advantage he has (how surprising!) is that he has one more win with 11. Otherwise, Santana has a better WHIP (1.03 to 1.10), a better BAA (.215 to .234), more strikeouts (125 to 83), and the better ERA (2.75 to 3.38). In fact, with last night's win, Santana is now third in the AL in ERA, second in strikeouts (to Erik Bedard), tied for fourth in wins, is fourth in WHIP, and is fifth in innings pitched. Really, the only number that stands out as a negative for Santana is the 17 home runs he has allowed.

The point of this isn't too far fetched: Santana is poised for the best year of his career with his current numbers, as his pre-break numbers surpass last year's (2.95 ERA, 9-5 record) and are far above those of 2005 (3.98, 7-5) and 2004 (3.78, 7-6). Santana's competition is a lot stiffer this year, at least so far, as Dan Haren, C.C. Sabbathia, John Lackey, and Justin Verlander are all having worthy years and Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie would be if not for the Orioles awful bullpen that accounts for his 4-2 record.

Thankfully for Santana, not only are his other numbers (ERA, WHIP, etc.) picking up, but his run support has been much better as of late. In the last four games Santana has started, the Twins have scored a total of 33 runs. In yesterday's game, the Twins managed to get offense out of the recently struggling Jason Kubel and the unlikely Luis Rodriguez as well as from Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau. Eight hits isn't terribly impressive, but getting five extra-base hits is a huge improvement for a Twins team that normally struggles to hit anything but singles most of the time.

With ample run support the rest of the way and his usual second-half magic, Santana should be set to compete for his third Cy Young award. The real question for the Twins is whether or not the team, which currently sits at a 43-40 record that leaves them 7 1/2 games behind the Indians in the AK Central and 5 1/2 games behind Detroit for the Wild Card, can make another second half push. With Kevin Slowey on the mound this afternoon taking on the so-far disastrous import Kei Igawa and the White Sox on the docket for this weekend, the Twins have the chance to put themselves in a good position by the All-Star break.