Dangerous Gambles in the Rotation

Teams generally enter every season with a few question marks in the rotation. The Twins, unfortunately, look like they'll head into the 2012 campaign with five.

With each starter slated to occupy a spot in Minnesota's rotation, there is a fair amount of upside and also significant downside. At this point there's no way to know which versions of these various Jekyll-and-Hyde acts we'll be seeing, so all we can do is hope that the Twins can come up heads more often than tails as they seek to improve on a league-worst pitching performance in 2011.

Carl Pavano has officially been tabbed as Opening Day starter – an honor that he's earned since he's the only member of this unit who threw more than 150 innings last year. In 2010 he was a highly effective innings-eater and arguably the most valuable starter on a 94-win team. Last year his results were thoroughly mediocre as he allowed more hits than any other pitcher in the league.

Heads, he remembers how to miss a few extra bats and returns to the form he showed while winning 17 games two years ago. Tails, his performance continues to descend as he ages into his late 30s.

Francisco Liriano was stellar in 2010, picking up Cy Young votes while striking out 200 hitters and earning a Game 1 ALDS start. Last year his ERA never dropped below 4.59 as he battled injuries and control issues that plagued him right up until the end of the campaign.

Heads, he regains his fastball command and helps power the top of a solid rotation. Tails, the problems that haunted him in 2011 remain present, leading to continued inconsistency and frustration before the non-competitive Twins trade him for peanuts at the deadline.

Scott Baker is the only member of this bunch who actually took care of business in 2011, and naturally his season was cut short by persisting elbow problems. Though his first-half success made him a borderline All-Star, he threw only 24 innings after the break.

Heads, Baker finally shrugs off the arm troubles that have plagued him intermittently throughout the past two seasons to pile up 200 frames for the first time since 2009. Tails, his elbow keeps on barking and limits him once again, perhaps leading to surgery.

Nick Blackburn has been a reliable, mid-rotation workhorse when healthy, hurling 400 innings with a 4.04 ERA between 2008 and 2009. Sadly, he hasn't been able to stay healthy since, and recently underwent arm surgery for a second consecutive offseason.

Heads, Blackburn overcomes his flaws and serves as an average, yet valuable, anchor in the No. 4 spot. Tails, the hits keep on coming and he struggles to another shortened and substandard campaign.

Finally, Jason Marquis is the newcomer in this equation. If he repeated his 4.43 ERA posted with the Nats last year, he'd be a decent enough fifth starter. But a 4.55 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the course of a career that's been spent entirely in the inferior NL don't bode well.

Heads, Marquis proves to be a serviceable piece at the end of the rotation, perhaps until a better option emerges in the minors. Tails, he follows the path of former bargain bin veterans like Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez, dropping before the season's halfway through.

It's not often that you see someone flip heads five times in a row, but it happens, and if these five could live up to their potential the Twins would boast a very respectable starting corps.

Unfortunately, these coins appear to be weighted, and not in a good way. Pavano is in the twilight of his career. Liriano had a discouraging run in winter ball. Baker hasn't really been healthy since '09, and neither has Blackburn. Marquis just ain't very good.

I rue the thought of the Twins pitching staff giving up 800-plus runs again this year, and I'm holding out hope that they can turn things around drastically. Given the talent present, it's certain possible.

But I wouldn't bet on those odds. Would you?

The Turbulent Career of Frankie Franchise

I can still vividly recall Francisco Liriano's first start of the 2006 season.

The date was May 19, and the struggling Twins were in Milwaukee to face the Brewers. I was in attendance at Miller Park that day, sitting along the first base line and eager to see the electric 22-year-old southpaw break into the rotation.

It had been a long time coming. Over the first six weeks of a season that saw the Twins stumble to a 10-game deficit in the AL Central, Liriano was a rare bright spot, thoroughly dominating opposing hitters in short bullpen stints.

He excelled that day, hurling five innings of one-run ball while allowing only two singles and facing two batters over the minimum. For good measure, he chipped in an RBI double at the plate. Frankie Franchise had arrived.

He built on that first start and quickly became baseball's most dazzling rookie, figuring prominently into the biggest turnaround in franchise history by nearly guaranteeing a victory every time he took the mound. In 14 starts through the end of July, Liriano went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 105-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 92 2/3 innings, holding opposing hitters to a .162 average and .482 OPS. Meanwhile, the Twins went from seven games below .500 to 17 above.

Liriano was a specimen the likes of which I'd never witnessed as a Twins fan. Sure, I'd seen some great starting pitchers come through; Brad Radke succeeded on pinpoint control, while Johan Santana kept hitters off-balance with a devastatingly deceptive changeup.

But Liriano was pure gas. He unleashed 96 mph fastballs and mixed in a steady diet of biting sliders that whipped across the zone in the upper-80s.

The young Dominican was an absolute joy to watch, and a gleaming beacon of hope for the club's future, so I was heartbroken when he slumped off the mound grasping his elbow after recording six outs against the Athletics in mid-September. He would require the dreaded Tommy John surgery, leading to an arduous road to recovery that featured far more valleys than peaks.

He missed the entire 2007 season while rehabbing. In 2008, he was mostly effective, if underwhelming. In 2009, he was a complete mess, unable to find the strike zone and maddeningly inconsistent. Following the season, he regained his confidence while pitching in winter ball and carried that momentum forward to put together his most complete season in 2010, looking at times very similar to the prodigy that took the league by storm in '06.

But last year, it was back to square one. Liriano's command unraveled, his shoulder barked, his work ethic came into question, and he gradually lost the confidence of his teammates, coaches and fans.

Now, with the 2012 season approaching, the Twins are looking to rebound from a disastrous campaign, and their ability to do so will be highly contingent on Liriano's ability to do the same.

In a rotation littered with mediocre contact pitchers, Liriano stands out as perhaps the one true hope for a dominant front line starter. He was obviously a far cry being that guy last year, so if the Twins are to contend this season they will almost certainly require a massive transformation from their most talented – and frustrating – starting pitcher.

Does he have it in him? Ever the Frankie diehard, I'll choose to focus on the similar metamorphosis that took place from 2009 to 2010 (especially since that offseason, like this one, featured a stint in the Dominican Winter League).

And I'll invariably drift back to that day in May of 2006 when this whole crazy ride began.

The Burden of Blame

It goes without saying that Francisco Liriano has had a disappointing season. His regression from top-of-the-rotation performer to erratic, inconsistent mechanical mess has been a key ingredient in the Twins' remarkable drop-off from a year ago.

Any time a player's performance deteriorates without any clear explanation, people are going to look for somewhere to pin the blame. In this case, many folks have targeted the coaching staff, for having the gall to suggest in spring training that Liriano could stand to be more efficient with his pitches.

In June, after Liriano had turned in perhaps his strongest start of the year against the Rangers at Target Field, Aaron Gleeman wrote a column that linked Liriano's horrible results in April to the Twins asking him to "pitch to contact" earlier in the spring.

Since that brilliant outing, Liriano has lapsed back into the same funk that plagued him in April and throughout the 2009 season, posting a 5.37 ERA with 31 walks over 55 1/3 innings. This should have put to bed any notion that his early issues were caused by the Twins' tinkering.

Yet, earlier this month, during a dreadful outing in which the lefty coughed up seven runs in Anaheim, Phil Mackey made his own attempt to implicitly blame the Twins' coaches for Liriano's problems, posting the following tweet:

Liriano has obviously been terrible this year. But #Twins' inference that he needed to alter his approach from '10 to '11 was ludicrous.

When I asked Mackey to clarify on this "inference," he pointed to his spring training notes, stating that "Liriano discussion centered much around trying to get 'quick outs' and throw 220 innings."

Ah, how irresponsible. Ludicrous, even.

Liriano was awesome last year and no one was a bigger fan of his performance than me. But what's ludicrous is the notion that he had no room for improvement, or that the team deserves to be castigated for bringing those areas to light.

An unwillingness, or inability, to throw the ball in the strike zone early in the count has been a problem for Liriano at different times throughout his career, and was certainly on display during one spring training outing this year when he needed 75 pitches to get through three innings. I believe the team's focus on "pitching to contact" was more a reaction to his erratic tendencies from the moment he showed up (out of shape) to camp than to his 2010 season. It's silly to think that coaches were asking him to make wholesale alterations to his approach after such a dominant campaign.

What's funny is that if Liriano had actually been able to heed the team's advice and throw the damn ball over the plate, he'd likely be having a very good season. His problems are almost 100 percent attributable to an inability to throw strikes. He's among the league leaders in swinging strike percentage and batters haven't been able to do much with his pitches when putting them in play, managing a measly 15.5 percent line drive rate and a sub-average .286 BABIP.

The key issue with blaming Liriano's troubles on the Twins is that he's done the exact opposite of what they asked. He couldn't throw strikes consistently in April and he still can't here in August, as his most recent outing saw him deliver just 53 of 109 pitches in the zone. 

I'm as big of a Frankie apologist as you'll find but it's crystal clear to me that he's created his own problems this season. No one can go out there and throw strikes for him. And if a relatively simple request from the coaches in spring training psyched him out so horribly that he's still out of sorts more than five months later, well, that's on him too.

There are plenty of things the Twins can actually responsibly be blamed for in this mess of a season. How about if we stick with those rather than drawing these kinds of strained causal assumptions?

Liriano's Self-Inflicted Wounds

The Twins have dealt with their fair share of uneven performances from the starting rotation this year. It's safe to say that, outside of Scott Baker, no pitcher has been as consistent as they'd like.

For the most part, that's the nature of the beast. When Nick Blackburn or Brian Duensing turns in an ugly start, it's tough to get too worked up, because most people understand that they're contact pitchers who invariably are going to have stretches where their pitches flatten out or their luck catches up with them.

Francisco Liriano's struggles have been more inexplicable and far more aggravating. Here we have a 27-year-old with an electric arm coming off a breakout season who has basically managed to undo all the positive progress he'd made since returning from Tommy John surgery four years ago.

In what figured to be the defining season of his career, Liriano showed up to spring training with a sore shoulder -- allegedly the result of a failure to keep up with his offseason workout regimen -- and since then the left-hander's campaign has been a hideous mess, spotted with random spectacular highlights.

One of the biggest reasons that I projected a monster year for Liriano was that he suffered from horrible batted ball luck in 2010, which caused his superficial core numbers to underplay his truly dominant performance. If he could simply repeat what he did last year with neutral luck, I pegged him to rank as one of the league's finest starters.

Sure enough, Liriano's BABIP has dropped from .335 in '10 to .280 in '11, and as a result he's averaging only 7.9 hits allowed per nine innings -- his lowest rate since the surgery. Unfortunately, he has more than offset this by completely losing his ability to throw the ball over the plate.

Last year, Liriano threw 64 percent of his pitches for strikes and averaged 2.7 walks per nine innings. He issued more than three free passes in a start only four times all season.

This year, he's throwing only 57 percent of his pitches for strikes and is averaging 5 BB/9IP, which is the worst rate of his career (worse even than his disastrous 2009). He's issued four or more walks in eight starts, including three of his past four.

If he were simply throwing garbage and getting crushed, Liriano's laborious outings would be easier to accept. But what's truly infuriating is that he's actually been pretty damned effective outside of the control problems. He's hitting the mid-90s with his fastball and his slider is as nasty as ever. His swinging strike percentage of 11.9 ranks second in all of baseball. Opponents are hitting line drives only 15.7 percent of the time against him, a career low that helps explain the drop in BABIP.

When Liriano is on, he's almost unbeatable, and we've seen that on a few all-too-rare occasions this year. For the most part, though, he's been completely out of sorts, often seeming to have no idea where the ball is going when it leaves his hand.

The southpaw's self-inflicted wounds are beyond frustrating to watch, and they leave the Twins in a difficult situation going forward. Do they continue to try and help him work through these recurring mental blocks -- a game they've been playing for far too long -- or do they cut bait and let him try to figure things out elsewhere, knowing full well that if he can recapture the command he had a year ago he could easily become one of the most dominant pitchers in the league?

I'm interested to hear what the masses think. I've always been a huge supporter of Liriano, but what I'm coming to realize is that I'm in love with the left arm a lot more than the rest of the package. I'd vote for hanging onto him through next year at least, if only because he remains the organization's sole chance at a true ace in the near future, but at this point I can only shake my head while watching him waste his talent and help crush the Twins' 2011 chances.

The Long Road

"Stuff" is one of my favorite baseball terms. On the surface it seems so rudimentary, yet it's used by scribes, players, coaches, scouts and fans alike. There really is no synonym. While the word in its general usage is as ambiguous as they come, its usage in baseball is acutely specific. You know what it is when you see it. Stuff is what makes the great pitchers great.

Francisco Liriano is one of those hurlers who has always been gifted with incredible stuff. When he first unleashed it on the major leagues back in 2006, hitters were blown away. Despite being just 22, Liriano struck out 144 batters while allowing only 89 hits in 121 innings. It was one of the most dominating rookie performances in memory.

The electricity of Liriano's arm has never been in question, only his ability to keep it running and control its current.

He short-circuited late in that sensational 2006 campaign, with a torn elbow ligament that required Tommy John surgery. We all know how many tribulations have been encountered on the long road back, but through it all Liriano's stuff endured; he continued to throw the ball past hitters even at times when his body ached and his control disappeared (most notably in a 2009 campaign where he went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA but still managed 122 whiffs in 136 innings).

Last season, things finally came together for Liriano, for the first time since his injury. He displayed masterful command of the strike zone, averaging only 2.7 walks per nine innings, and his stuff was just about as good as ever. At age 27, he seemed prepared to resume the path he'd embarked upon when he first rose to the majors back in 2006, which was why I strongly advocated for a contract extension during the offseason.

Of course, I didn't anticipate that Liriano would forget how to throw strikes over the offseason. From the moment he showed up to camp this year, he was a mess, racking up huge pitch counts while struggling to find the zone with even half his offerings. Over his first seven starts this year (including the no-hitter), Liriano walked 27 batters in 35 2/3 innings while throwing just 55 percent of his pitches for strikes.

Ever since the no-hitter, though, Liriano has been pitching with increased confidence, and yesterday at Target Field he appeared to turn a corner. Finally, he looked every bit as dominant as he did when at his best last year, or even in 2006. Facing off against a dangerous Texas lineup, the southpaw attacked the zone with authority, making almost every hitter he faced look hopelessly overmatched.

There was no luck involved with Liriano's no-hit bid, which was broken up by an Adrian Beltre single in the eighth. All afternoon, the Rangers flailed hopelessly at Liriano's darting fastballs and devastating sliders. Through the first seven innings, seemingly every Texas at-bat ended with a strikeout or a weakly tapped grounder.

In two starts since returning from the disabled list, the left-hander has now allowed two runs (one earned), five hits and three walks in 13 innings while striking out 16. It took a while, but finally he seems to be getting back on track.

The same can be said for the Twins, who have now won nine of their last 11, trimming their deficit in the AL Central to single digits for the first time since early May.

With a bevy of key players set to come off the disabled list this week, interleague play (which they've traditionally dominated) approaching, and plenty of home games on the docket, the Twins have to be feeling a whole lot better about their chances than they they did just a couple short weeks ago.

With that said, they've still got a long way to go. In spite of their impressive hot streak, they still have the fewest wins of any AL team, and must pass four clubs to get to the top of the division. Even with the rotation showing significant improvement and the lineup incrementally returning to full strength, that will be a tall task for a team with ingrained flaws.

One thing is for sure, though: their odds will be much, much better if Liriano can keep throwing the ball like he did at Target Field yesterday. Suddenly, this team has an ace again.

Good stuff.

---

A&E Home Entertainment has kindly provided three copies of The Minnesota Twins Vintage World Series Films DVD to give out to readers of the blog. If you're interested, drop me a line at nels2807@gmail.com by 5 pm on Monday with your name in the subject line and I'll include you in a drawing. Great gift for pops with Father's Day approaching.

The First Step

Charles Rex Arbogast, AP

What I'll remember was the smile.

The Twins haven't had much cause for smiling this year. Between the offensive incompetence, the pitching struggles, the constant fielding gaffes, the strange ailments, and the mounting losses, it's been a dire scene.

Francisco Liriano has had more to frown about than most. He had his name bandied about in trade rumors during an offseason in which he failed to come away with a long-term deal, and from the very onset of spring training he's run into nothing but trouble on the mound.

So when Liriano was mobbed by celebrating teammates after putting the finishing touches on last night's no-hitter, it was the grin on his face that really hit home. I've been one of the left-hander's biggest proponents, harshly criticizing the front office for failing to reach an extension with him over the winter, so I've been as upset -- and dumbfounded -- by his early struggles as anyone. To see him, and the team, finally experience a good break was heartwarming.

It wouldn't have been a stretch to say that Liriano was among the most unlikely pitchers in all the majors to deliver a no-no. In 204 professional starts between the majors and minors, he'd never before thrown a complete game. He had failed to record more than 15 outs in four of his five starts this year. His 9.13 ERA ranked as the second-worst in the majors. He'd battled severe command issues all season, and that continued into last night's outing as he issued six walks and threw only 66 of his 123 pitches for strikes.

To be sure, last night's momentous achievement did not signal a turnaround in the southpaw's troubling performance. He might have a badly slumping White Sox offense to thank as much as anything he did himself.

But he can also thank his teammates, and that's the biggest takeaway for this scuffling Twins club. Jason Kubel gave Liriano a lead to protect with a solo home run in the fourth. Danny Valencia made a spectacular stab-and-throw on a grounder down the line in the seventh. Justin Morneau made a great scoop on a throw in the dirt from Matt Tolbert in the ninth -- Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweeted that it was the first time this year Morneau has successfully executed a scoop. It was also perhaps the first time that we've truly seen this team come together.

A dreadful start to the season has had just about everyone in the clubhouse on edge. Last night, Liriano and the Twins finally got to smile. Remembering how to do that could be the first step toward getting things turned around.

Pitching to Contact

Ron Gardenhire drew heat from some baseball analysts and fans prior to yesterday's game for telling reporters he'd like to see Francisco Liriano "pitch to contact" more in order to "become a real pitcher."

This comment embittered many of those who rightfully appreciate the value of strikeouts for pitchers, but to a degree I think it was misinterpreted. Frankly, I don't think the Twins' manager was all that off-base in his remarks, even considering the ugly results Liriano came across in his ensuing outing.

Gardenhire isn't a dope. I don't think it bothers him when Liriano strikes someone out; I think it bothers him when it takes eight pitches to make it happen. If you could pinpoint one flaw in the lefty's performance last season (aside from the exorbitant number of cheap singles he allowed) it would be his inability to pitch deep into games with regularity. In 31 starts, the southpaw threw 191 innings; in just one more start, Carl Pavano threw 221 innings. Top AL starters like Felix Hernandez, David Price, CC Sabathia and Jon Lester all logged well over 200 frames.

There's no question that efficiency has been a far more significant issue for Liriano in this young season. Many will recall a televised spring training start in which he struck out nine over three innings but also threw 72 pitches. In his first two regular-season starts, he constantly tried to nibble the edges of the strike zone. He missed frequently and the walks mounted as he failed to pitch past the fifth inning in both turns.

I think Gardenhire's comments were more a response to these recent struggles than his work last season. I was struck by another of the manager's quotes yesterday, in which he mentioned that Liriano "doesn't understand how good his stuff is."

I've wondered about this. Oftentimes, and especially over his past several outings, Liriano will work too much outside of the strike zone, trying to get hitters to chase and whiff. That's all well and good when he's got it working like he did last year, but it's the exact type of style that can lead to lengthy at-bats and high pitch counts. If he's not getting batters to chase, it will often lead to short, ineffectual outings.

Saying he'd like his top starter to "pitch to contact" is an unfortunate choice of words but what Gardy really means, I believe, is that he'd like Liriano to pitch to the zone. Attack hitters. Make them swing and miss at strikes. And if they make contact, Liriano is one of the game's best ground ball pitchers so damage will generally be minimized.

Key word: generally.

Against the Royals yesterday, Liriano followed his manager's orders and attacked the strike zone. In some respects, the results were exactly what Gardenhire had hoped for; the lefty issued only one walk and entered the sixth inning with only 71 pitches thrown (over 70 percent of them strikes). It was easily his most efficient outing of the year, be it March or April.

Of course, things unraveled in a disastrous fourth inning where Liriano allowed six runs on eight hits, so the overall outing was a poor one. The key takeaway is that seven of those eight hits were singles, and the one double was a grounder that sneaked down the third base line. Many of Kansas City's hits were aided by ugly misplays from the Twins' defense.

Hitting a bunch of singles without mixing in walks or extra-base hits is not an effective method of scoring runs in high volumes. The Royals themselves illustrated this last year, when they ranked second in the American League in batting average but 10th in runs scored thanks to their lack of patience and power.

Telling Liriano to completely abandon his style and throw the ball into hitters' bats is a bad idea, but probably not an accurate depiction of what the Twins are trying to instill. The lefty needs to trust his stuff and attack the zone more aggressively. He took steps toward doing that yesterday, and while the results weren't pretty I have faith that he'll quickly round into shape if he keeps it up and if opposing offenses aren't able to dink and dunk their way to eight-hit innings too often.

With that being said, there's not much Liriano -- or any of the team's pitchers -- will be able to do if the defense continues to play so horribly behind him.

Oh, Canada

The Twins don't match up very well against power-hitting teams in homer-friendly stadiums. This has been the case throughout recent years, and will likely remain true as long as they continue to emphasize pitching to contact and swinging for singles.

Last year the Twins went 3-6 against the Blue Jays, and over the offseason the front office only increased its emphasis on the aforementioned dynamics, so I hardly expected the team to fare well in its season-opening series against the Blue Jays in Toronto.

Still, I don't think anyone was anticipating the sort of hideous effort the Twins put forth in their first two games of the season. After a winter full of bad news, things had finally started to come together at the end of spring training for this group. Everyone had finally gotten healthy just in the nick of time, and the majority of key players had looked extremely sharp in exhibition play.

It seemed as though this team was ready to jump out of the gates and take some people by surprise. Instead, the Twins were blown out 13-3 on Friday and held to one hit in a 6-1 defeat on Saturday. They looked stunningly bad in every aspect of the game: starters failed to complete even five innings, defenders blundered repeatedly, relievers allowed deficits to grow, and hitters looked totally clueless.

The Twins salvaged the series by squeaking by in a 4-3 win yesterday, but it's tough to be encouraged by much of what we saw on opening weekend. Some thoughts:

* The short-term reaction to yesterday's game is to be relieved that the Twins escaped Toronto with a win. The long-term reaction is to be perturbed by how shaky Joe Nathan looked in closing out the victory.

Nathan entered with a two-run lead after Denard Span homered in the top of the ninth to provide some extra breathing room. That insurance run would prove crucial, as Nathan labored through his first save chance since 2009, allowing one run on two hits and two walks while throwing 31 pitches (only 15 of them strikes). Two of the outs Nathan recorded were line drives tracked down by sprinting outfielders at the warning track.

Facing the Blue Jays in Toronto in his first official outing since Tommy John surgery is certainly a tough assignment so I'm tempted to cut Nathan some slack, but what's most worrisome is the actual quality of his pitches. His fastball, which regularly sat in the mid-90s prior to surgery, topped out at 91 mph and on occasion failed to even reach 90. His breaking pitches, snappy and precise prior to surgery, registered in the low 80s and bounced before reaching home plate multiple times.

Nathan is only 12 months removed from having a ligament replaced in his elbow, and for most pitchers it takes longer than that to fully regain velocity and command. If his work in spring training and Sunday's regular-season debut are any indication, those capacities haven't returned yet for Nathan. It's not clear whether he can be effective in the closer role -- or even a late-inning relief role -- without them.

* The Twins have shown a lot of confidence in Nathan throughout his recovery process.

During the offseason, they let Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes all walk as free agents, trusting that the departures would be largely offset by Nathan's return.

After Nathan struggled through spring training, posting a 9.72 ERA with more walks than strikeouts, the Twins continued to show confidence in him by awarding him the closer role despite Capps' almost flawless performance in Grapefruit League play.

Yesterday came Ron Gardenhire's boldest vote of confidence yet. Nathan had loaded the bases and thrown over 30 pitches in the bottom of the ninth, and the Jays had left-hander Adam Lind stepping into the box. Dusty Hughes was warm in the bullpen, ready to relieve the beleaguered closer, but Gardenhire remained in the dugout, leaving Nathan on to face Lind.

That confidence paid off, as Nathan induced a weak grounder to first to end the game, but one is left asking: should Nathan continue to pitch this way, how long will Gardy's confidence remain intact?

* In his final plate appearance yesterday, Tsuyoshi Nishioka stood with the bat on his shoulder with two strikes and watched at least two pitches from Rauch clip the strike zone. Fortunately for him, home plate umpire Paul Schrieber was apparently feeling generous and Nishioka ended up on first base with a walk rather than in the dugout with his sixth strikeout in three games.

The Japanese import has looked out of his element against major-league pitching early on. At the plate, he's been tentative, seemingly unaware that umpires at this level will call strikes on the edge of the zone. Many of the balls he put in play over the weekend came on weak contact created by defensive swings.

Regardless of all the enthusiasm created by a superficial spring training hit streak, a slow start should be the expectation for Nishioka. As with any rookie playing in the majors for the first time, he must adjust to a learning curve, and the transition is made more difficult by a new culture and -- in many ways -- a new style of playing the game.

* As one of his most avid supporters, I take no pleasure in saying that Francisco Liriano looked dreadful in his season debut on Saturday. His results weren't quite as disastrous as Carl Pavano's dud on Opening Night, but Liriano was able to work through only 4 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on four hits (two homers) and five walks while striking out three. Only 44 of the southpaw's 90 pitches met the strike zone. No one is going to be blaming this one on bad luck.

I'm not terribly concerned about Liriano's shoddy command; that's not uncommon for power pitchers early in the season (see Jon Lester's debut for the Red Sox). More alarming was the lack of bite on his pitches. His fastball sat several ticks lower than we typically saw it last season and was ineffective in setting up the slider, which itself was inconsistent in location and velocity.

When he's on top of his game, Liriano makes a living on mixing mid-90s heaters with biting sliders -- overpowering pitches that often miss the zone but induce a lot of whiffs. This style could be referred to as effectively wild. When the offerings are lacking as they were on Saturday afternoon, there's nothing effective about his wildness.

* Pavano was absolutely crushed on Friday night, but here's a fact to keep in mind. In his third start last year, the veteran righty allowed seven runs on 11 hits over 3 1/3 innings against the Royals (yes, the Royals). He followed that up with four straight quality starts in which he pitched at least seven innings. Pavano is susceptible to the occasional bombing, but he should be fine going forward.

* The Twins don't match up very well against power-hitting teams in homer-friendly stadiums. Have I said that before? Well it's a bitter truth as the club now heads to New York for a four-game series against the Yankees.

With no break in sight (the Twins don't have an off day until the 11th), the back end of Gardenhire's bullpen is worn down. The team's been very vocal about protecting Nathan's arm early in the season, and he threw a lot of pitches yesterday. Meanwhile, Jose Mijares and Matt Capps have appeared in consecutive games. It will be interesting to see how the manager deploys relievers over the next couple days, especially if he faces tight late-game situations.

Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

The Twins entered the offseason with five established starting pitchers under their control for 2011. By re-signing Carl Pavano, they upped that number to six and created a logjam of sorts. With jobs guaranteed to the top two starters, Pavano and Francisco Liriano, four pitchers were tabbed to compete for the final three rotation spots during spring training.

As it turns out, all four of those pitchers have performed well this month, so it comes as no shock that the odd man out is Kevin Slowey, a talented right-handed hurler who's had some friction with the organization and was left off the postseason roster despite winning 13 games last year.

While I don't necessarily agree with the decision to start Slowey in the bullpen, his presence there gives the Twins a quick and competent fall-back option should one of the top five starters falter or suffer an injury. Each of the Twins' six starters has a track record of big-league success and the organization also has top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A, so as we enter the 2011 season the starting rotation appears to be the club's strongest and deepest position.

Carl Pavano
2010 Stats: 221 IP, 17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 117/37 K/BB

I don't think Pavano's a better pitcher than Liriano, but the argument can certainly be made that he had a better season in 2010 and there's nothing wrong with giving him the veteran nod as Opening Day starter this year. Pavano has earned the billing with a lights-out spring training, allowing only six earned runs in 25 innings over five starts. His dramatic drop-off in strikeout rate in the waning months last season was somewhat unsettling, but all the Twins need from Pavano is 200 solid innings to make his $8 million salary look like a bargain. His FIP has been right around 4.00 in each of the past two years so that should be his baseline expectation.

Francisco Liriano
2010 Stats: 191.2 IP, 14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 201/58 K/BB

Liriano has become a rather controversial figure here in Minnesota. Debates swirl around whether or not he's a "true ace," whether his occasional struggles are more attributable to bad luck or mental weakness, and whether the Twins would be wise to trade him before supposedly inevitable injuries decimate his value. What should be universally agreed upon is that Liriano is a very talented pitcher whose arsenal is among the filthiest in baseball, and at age 27 he's still just entering his prime years. The lefty was victimized by an abnormally high number of bleeders, bloopers and seeing-eye singles last year, but these things tend to go in cycles. I expect him to be phenomenal in 2011, and when the year's over I expect the front office to be cursing themselves for failing to at least more actively pursue a three- or four-year deal this past offseason.

Brian Duensing
2010 Stats: 130.2 IP, 10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 78/35 K/BB

By virtue of his outstanding performance last year, Duensing was the first "bubble guy" to be awarded a spot in the rotation this spring. He'll pitch fifth sequentially to split up the lefties, but for all intents and purposes Ron Gardenhire views Duensing as his No. 3. That title seems to be more than earned based on the southpaw's core numbers over the past two years (15-5 with a 3.02 ERA) but a deeper glance shows a rather unspectacular 1.98 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a huge disparity in performance against lefties (.502 OPS) and righties (.747 OPS). Opposing managers will undoubtedly be stacking their lineups with right-handed batters, so Duensing will have his work cut out for him. Matching last year's magic will be an exceedingly tall task.

Nick Blackburn
2010 Stats: 161 IP, 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 68/40 K/BB

From an outside perspective, it's tough to understand why Blackburn would have been promised a rotation spot so quickly this spring. Last year he remained one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and for good measure he also posted the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career. The result was a mostly disastrous campaign that saw him demoted to the minors in late July with a 6.66 ERA, though he returned and pitched well down the stretch to finish with a 10-12 record and 5.42 ERA. The key factors in the Twins' decision were Blackburn's previous history as an effective starter (he tossed about 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009), his newly minted long-term contract and his good standing with the manager. While Blackburn's extreme contact tendencies can be hard to stomach, it's tough to downplay his value those first two seasons and the fact that a nagging elbow injury likely contributed to his struggles last year. If he gets bombed over the first couple months, Slowey will be ready to step in.

Scott Baker
2010 Stats: 170.1 IP, 12-9, 4.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 148/43 K/BB

Only 10 American League starters averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Baker last year, and only 11 averaged fewer walks. Not many teams can make a claim like that about their fifth starter, but the truth is that Baker is the team's No. 5 guy in name only -- ultimately there's a very strong chance that he'll end up being a more effective pitcher than either of the two above him here. In order to make his results match his outstanding peripherals, Baker will focus on two things this year: staying healthy and limiting base runners. His elbow bothered him at times throughout the 2010 campaign and continued to cause issues early this spring. And while his fly ball tendencies will always make him somewhat homer-prone, the long balls do a lot less damage when nobody's on base. Last year Baker posted his highest WHIP (1.34) since 2006.

Success vs. Failure

The turning point in Game 1 of last year's ALDS match-up between the Twins and Yankees came in the sixth inning when Curtis Granderson delivered a two-run triple against Francisco Liriano with two outs.

You might recall the situation. The Twins led 3-2 at the time, and Liriano had been dominating for much of the game. At the time Granderson stepped in, Minnesota's starter had pitched 5 2/3 innings, striking out seven while allowing only two runs on five hits. If he could retire Granderson -- who had fared very poorly against left-handed pitchers throughout his career -- Liriano would have had a quality start in the books and sent the Twins into the seventh with a lead.

Unfortunately, that's not how it went down. Granderson drove a ball high off the right field wall, bringing home two runs and knocking Liriano out of the game. The Yankees would go on to win and sweep the series.

Many sour Twins fans look at this event as a failure on the part of Liriano -- further evidence that he buckles under pressure and cannot be trusted in big spots (this analysis, of course, ignores the fact that he shut down the league's highest-scoring offense over the first five innings).

But if you ask a Yankees fan about the play, they'll give you a different viewpoint. Most likely, they'll tell you that it was a great piece of hitting by Granderson, who managed to get the best of a very good pitcher, changing his team's fortunes.

This is a topic I've been wanting to write about for a while: the difference between success and failure. Or, more specifically, the difference between our perceptions of success and failure.

There's a psychological aspect here that tends to cloud fan analysis. When a player on our favorite team reaches an unfavorable outcome -- a batter strikes out, a pitcher gives up a home run, a base runner gets thrown out stealing -- we tend to blame it on him rather than crediting his opponent. The opposite is also true. When Twins fans reminisce about Kirby Puckett's momentous home run in Game 6 of the 1991 World Series, our first thought isn't, "What a crummy pitch by Charlie Liebrandt." Similarly, when we recall Jack Morris' gritty 10-inning performance the next night, most of us don't think, "Boy, the Braves' lineup sure did suck in that game."

So, setting aside our emotional intensity as fans, can we really claim with confidence that Liriano failed in that key spot? He went to his best pitch, delivering a slider that tailed away from the lefty swinger, and Granderson simply went out and got it. It's true that Grandy has had his struggles against southpaws over the course of his career, but he's a good baseball player. He's collected 55 extra-base hits against lefties in the majors, and not every one of those has come on a mistake pitch.

I write this post not to make any specific point, but rather to get people thinking about success and failure in a different way, especially when analyzing specific events. Just because things don't go the way we'd like, it doesn't mean we always have to blame somebody. In major league baseball, and especially in the playoffs, the opposition comprises the most elite players in the world.

Sometimes it's more a matter of the other side succeeding than our own side failing.

Three-Bagger: Pavano, Prospects & Antony

* Ron Gardenhire officially announced yesterday that he has Carl Pavano pegged as his Opening Day starter.

This led to some grumbling from fans who rightfully view Francisco Liriano as the superior arm, but I'm not too bothered by the news. It's possible that the Twins see Pavano as a better pitcher, but their decision to start Liriano in Game 1 of the ALDS last year would suggest otherwise.

More likely, this is a respectful nod to the veteran, akin to Gardenhire's decision to give Brad Radke the Opening Day start in 2005 right after Johan Santana won his first Cy Young Award.

It's also worth noting that Scott Baker was originally slated as the Twins' Opening Day starter in 2009 but missed the assignment due to injury (his replacement, coincidentally, was Liriano), so making this announcement six weeks away from the start of the season guarantees nothing.

* Baseball America released their annual ranking of the Top 100 prospects in baseball yesterday, and four players from the Twins organization made the list. Kyle Gibson was ranked 34th, with Aaron Hicks 45th, Miguel Sano 60th and Joe Benson rounding out the list at 100.

These placements fall in line with my Twins' preseason prospect rankings, where I had those four players ranked first, second, third and fifth, respectively. I did place Ben Revere one spot above Benson on my list, but there's certainly a good argument to be made the other way. Benson undoubtedly holds more upside, but Revere -- in my opinion -- has fewer hurdles to clear before making a positive impact in the majors.

* If you haven't already, make sure to swing by Twinkie Town and check out Jesse Lund's interview with Twins assistant GM Rob Antony. Jesse did a great job with the questions, probing Antony about some of the team's more controversial moves of the offseason. While the answers weren't always fully satisfying, there's definitely some good insight to be gleaned about the organization's thought process.

Great work, Jesse.

Liriano and Work Ethic

Signing Francisco Liriano to a multiyear contract this offseason has long seemed like an obvious move to me, so I was puzzled when the Twins expressed little interest in doing so. I was even more puzzled earlier this month when reports dropped that the team was open to trading the southpaw.

Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Liriano had finally returned to his previous level of filthiness (or at least pretty close) and established himself as the Twins' most dominating and exciting starter since Johan Santana's departure.

And now, the front office was thinking about trading him, with free agency still two years away?

There had to be more to this. I know the Twins don't rely as heavily on statistical analysis as some other clubs, but they're certainly not ignorant to Liriano's relative dominance. Surely they are aware that he was one of the league's most prolific strikeout artists, and that no other pitcher was as stingy with home runs. They weren't asleep while Liriano was breaking off two lengthy scoreless-inning streaks last summer.

The coaching staff knows what a dangerous weapon Liriano is, and that's why the lefty was tabbed as Minnesota's Game 1 starter in the ALDS, even with Carl Pavano coming off a 17-win season.

The Twins are obviously familiar with Liriano's ability, so it seems odd that their attitude toward him this offseason could best be described as "indifferent." Long-term contract discussions between the two sides reportedly went nowhere, and while club officials haven't openly confirmed that they're shopping the left-hander around, they haven't really backed away from the reports of his availability either.

It may be that the Twins are afraid of another major injury. I've been a little baffled by that line of reasoning, since he was mostly healthy last year and has had a full offseason to rest his arm. Then, I came across this bit in La Velle E. Neal's Twins notes for today's Star Tribune, under the scalding header "Failure to exercise is Liriano's issue":

Liriano threw several bullpen sessions in the weeks leading to the start of camp but came down with tendinitis just before he left his native Dominican Republic for Fort Myers. An MRI done in Miami showed no structural damage.

Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson said he asked Liriano whether he did all of his shoulder exercises during the offseason, and Liriano said no.

"He's been doing them here, and now his shoulder is strong,'' Anderson said.

That's a surprisingly direct criticism of Liriano's work ethic. I'm sure other Twins players have failed to keep up with their exercises in the past, but I can't remember ever reading about it. 

Well, actually I can. While I don't feel like digging through newspaper archives to find quotes, I'm pretty sure I've seen Twins officials grumbling about Liriano's work ethic before. Those gripes may have some validity. He showed up noticeably heavier in 2008 when returning from a year-long Tommy John rehab, suggesting he hadn't been working to keep himself in shape while away from baseball. He battled arm fatigue in the latter months of the 2010 season, a recurring issue which has been attributed to his between-start regimen.

I love watching Liriano pitch and would hope to see him do so in a Twins uniform for years to come. I still feel like buying out at least his first year of free agency should have been more strongly considered this offseason, and I still feel like the idea of trading him at this point in time is loony. 

But if quotes like the one Anderson provided above accurately reflect the lefty's work ethic, it's hard to fault the club for being hesitant to commit long-term, or for being perpetually irritated when apparently avoidable injury issues like his current shoulder soreness crop up.

Windows

This winter has been one of the hardest I can remember for the good state of Minnesota. I don't think I'm alone in saying I've been cooped up in the house far more often than I'd have liked over these past several months, unwilling to brave the multi-foot snowfalls and subzero temperatures that have comprised most of our days. A winter that began with a Twins sweep at the hands of the Yankees gave way to miserable seasons from the Vikings and Timberwolves, sprinkled with the stunning success of every team in Wisconsin. It's enough to make a lifelong local sports fan raise his eyebrows while driving past the "Are You Depressed?" billboard.

Yesterday, I woke up, walked to the window, opened up the blinds and looked outside. Suddenly, everything changed. My eyes were instantly drawn to the gushing sunlight and the water dripping from the roof. I didn't even need to step outside to realize that finally, after this maddening and forgettable winter, we were getting our first thaw. The days are getting longer. Summer is quickly approaching.

Like so many seemingly unrelated things, it got me thinking about baseball.

Baseball is, of course, one of the best parts of summer. My excitement this offseason has been tempered by what I view as a baffling course of action from my favorite team's front office, but -- much like this hellish winter -- I feel ready to put it firmly in the rear view mirror. I'm just ready for the boys to start playing some games.

So I was struck hard by this bombshell dropped by Joe Christensen last week, which hits like a blizzard after the melt. While the Twins have weakened themselves over the past few months, one big reason they've still got a shot at a title is Francisco Liriano. He's one of the league's most dominant pitchers, he was their Game 1 starter in the ALDS (delivering a far more impressive performance than Carl Pavano or Brian Duensing) and for now he's exceedingly cheap. 

The Twins have a window for winning a championship, with a number of talented players currently on the roster -- most importantly a prime-aged Joe Mauer. What I loved about last season was that every move the team made, whether trading for J.J. Hardy or signing Jim Thome or trading for Matt Capps, was geared toward maximizing their chance at taking advantage of this window.

By trading Liriano right now for a package of prospects, which Christensen presents as a possibility in drawing comparisons to the Zack Greinke and Matt Garza trades, the Twins would effectively be slamming the window shut on themselves. Hypothetically, they could still compete for a division title, but contending teams just don't trade their best pitcher away.

I'm reminded of the situation that took place four years ago, in Bill Smith's first winter at the reigns. The Twins had turned in a sub-.500 record for the first time in seven years and seemed to be bracing for a bit of a rebuilding period. In an offseason where they'd watched Torii Hunter walk away as a free agent, the front office elected to trade away Johan Santana to the Mets for four prospects, and Matt Garza to the Rays for a package that centered on Delmon Young.

Over the next two years, the Twins surprised. The offense churned and young pitchers stepped up. The Twins came just a game short of a playoff berth in 2008 and sneaked in with an incredible late-season run in '09 before being swept by the Yankees. It's fair to say both those clubs were surprisingly good, but a bit short of greatness.

Two of the biggest flaws on both teams were a lack of front-line pitching and the lack of a passable regular shortstop. Instead of one year of Santana and two years of Garza and Jason Bartlett (who'd have fit those billings incredibly well), the Twins were forced to endure the growing pains of Young and Carlos Gomez, products of the trades. The two young outfielders provided more negative value than positive in those two years, and that swing of production may have been the difference between the Twins taking advantage of their window and failing to do so.

One could argue that dropping hints they're shopping Liriano is the responsible thing to do for the Twins' organization, ensuring that they'll avoid becoming out-leveraged by waiting until the lefty's last year before free agency to talk trade. Some see it as an indication that Smith learned his lesson from the Santana debacle that took place in his first months on the job.

The thing is, if Smith had learned his lesson, he wouldn't be discussing a Liriano trade at all. The southpaw is quite probably the only chance this team has at a truly elite starting pitcher in the next two years, making him one of the organization's most irreplaceable commodities and one of their best hopes for bringing home a championship with Mauer, Joe Nathan, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Carl Pavano, Jim Thome and others all helping contribute.

I'm not saying I would never trade Liriano. Every player has a price. But I find it impossible to believe that any general manager in baseball would give up enough for a pitcher with his track record to make losing him worthwhile. Even as one of the Liriano's most adamant supporters, I was taken aback by rumors that his camp was looking for a three-year, $39 million extension. It shocks me that his agent wouldn't bring a more reasonable offer to the table in order to secure some up-front money for the next few years to insure his client's somewhat fragile arm.

But any pitcher can get hurt, so unless the Twins have specific reason to believe his arm is going to fall off this year (and if that were the case Liriano, who knows his body better than anyone, would be rushing to a long-term contract), there's no reason to even entertain the notion of trading him right now. Maybe in a year, if he inflates his value and holds unreasonable contract demands, but not right now. He's far too important.

When I actually stepped outside yesterday, I was reminded that it was in fact still decidedly chilly, and six-foot piles of snow stretched in every direction. It was a beautiful day, in its own right, but also a reminder that we'll have to keep waiting before the snow is gone and spring is here.

By trading Liriano before the 2011 season even starts, that's the message the Twins' front office would be sending championship-hungry fans.

Keep waiting.

One Year for Liriano is a Mistake

It's probably no secret to people who read this blog often, but I'm a huge Francisco Liriano fan. While I feel nervous about what to expect from a number of Twins players this season, I feel supremely confident that Liriano will be one of the top pitchers in the American League.

He's 27, he's four years removed from surgery and -- for the first time in his Twins career -- he's had a full offseason to rest up. No rehab from injury, no winter ball. Liriano's arm should be as strong as ever this year, and that should help him last deeper into games and avoid wearing down at the end of the season again.

In 2010, Liriano was one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, but his ERA and win/loss record stayed in check -- in part due to an inflated batting average on balls in play. His unremarkable core numbers have made him something of a well-kept secret, but that secret is likely to get out this year if his BABIP normalizes and he keeps racking up the strikeouts and ground balls.

If that's the case, the Twins may be missing their last chance to lock up the left-hander at a reasonable rate by opting for a one-year deal to avoid arbitration. I've been calling a long-term contract for Liriano the team's top priority since last August, but it seems that -- like with so many things this offseason -- the Twins brass sees it differently than me.

While chatting with fellow TwinsCentric blogger Seth Stohs at Twins Fest, Bill Smith acknowledged the downside of going year-to-year with Liriano: "We definitely recognize the risk in doing that and if he has another big year, it will cost us some money."

I don't presume the Twins want to cost themselves money, so the above quote indicates to me that they're not fully confident in the durability of Liriano's arm. I have a hard time understanding why, given that he's averaged 175 innings in his three seasons since Tommy John surgery and was hitting 96 mph in the playoffs last year, but I guess they have more insight on the subject than me. It's fair to say his arm is fragile; he had a lengthy injury history prior to his torn ligament (part of the reason the Twins got him so cheaply) and does go through periodic dead arm spells.

But those facts are all the more reason for Liriano to accept a multiyear deal right now and guarantee himself the first big payday of his career. Hammering out a contract with Liriano two years from free agency and coming off a good-not-great season gives the Twins an opportunity to negotiate from a position of leverage, but for whatever reason they seem perfectly willing to pass on it. I suppose I shouldn't get too worked up about it -- it's not my money -- but I wonder about the implications if Liriano goes on to enjoy a healthy and spectacular 2011 campaign, as I expect he will.

With core numbers that match his ace-caliber peripherals, he would become a much hotter commodity, viewed around the league in the same category as David Price, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee. And, with only one more year standing between Liriano and free agency, leverage will have shifted largely to his side. At that point, the Twins will face the difficult decision of meeting the potentially exorbitant demands of Liriano's agent, or risking the loss of another prime-aged lefty ace.

Of course, if Liriano doesn't have a great year, these points are mostly moot and it probably ends up being a fine decision. I admit that my opposition to this course of action is completely vested in the notion that he'll take another step forward this year, which could easily be wrong. Maybe he'll get hurt. But injuries are almost impossible to predict for pitchers. When the Twins handed totally unnecessary long-term contracts to Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, both of those pitchers seemed to be in fine health, but neither has had a fully healthy or productive season since inking the dotted line. Given an opportunity to gain similar cost certainty with Liriano, a far more irreplaceable asset, it appears they'll opt to let things play out year-by-year, gambling that the southpaw won't continue his ascent and price himself right out of their budget.

Between Baker, Blackburn, Joe Mauer, Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer, the Twins have handed out a lot of bloated contract extensions to their own players in recent years that haven't turned out to be particularly team-friendly (at least so far). Liriano's situation struck me as a chance to buck that trend. Whiffing on the opportunity to reach a long-term pact with the only ace-caliber pitcher in the entire organization on somewhat team-friendly terms while his value is superficially low hits me as another misguided decision in an offseason that has featured far too many.

Three-Bagger: Greinke, Hardy & Speed

"Three-Bagger" is a new feature I'll be running here from time to time. It refers to posts, like the one below, where I briefly cover three different topics rather than dedicating an entire lengthy entry to one subject.

* Joel Sherman of the New York Post and Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com both suggested today that the Yankees aren't interested in trading for Zack Greinke because they don't believe he'd deal well with the pressure of pitching in New York. That's amusing because so many Twins fans have been clamoring for the team to pursue Greinke, reasoning that he'd be the true bulldog "ace" that Liriano isn't. Incidentally, the Yankees have apparently inquired about the availability of Liriano.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'd take Liriano over Greinke as my No. 1 starter on a contending team. That's not to say I wouldn't love to add Greinke to the Twins' rotation, but people who think he'd automatically solve the supposed "ace" dilemma aren't seeing things very clearly.

* Today's bitter J.J. Hardy fact: His .714 OPS last year ranks as the highest for a Minnesota shortstop who played 100-plus games since Cristian Guzman in 2001. For being such a replaceable commodity in the eyes of many, Hardy's production was awfully rare around these parts.

* The Twins supposedly are focused on increasing team speed this offseason. They claim that it's the main reason they've elected to part with both of their starting middle infielders from 2010. Yet, both Hardy and Orlando Hudson rated extremely well defensively, helping contribute to the Twins' No. 6 ranking among MLB teams in UZR. Among those clubs that finished among the top 10 in UZR, five made the playoffs. The Giants, who ranked second, won the World Series. Meanwhile, only one team ranking in the bottom 10 reached the postseason -- the Braves, who were ousted in the first round with ease.

On the flip side, three of the five lowest-ranked teams in stolen bases made the playoffs last year. That includes the Giants, who ranked dead last. Only one playoff team -- the Rays -- ranked among the top five in stolen bases.

If you believe their claims, the Twins' front office seems to think they can improve their 94-win team by subtracting defensive proficiency and adding foot speed. That's a shaky proposition based on the way things played out last year. Whether or not you put much stock into UZR as a statistic, it was clearly more closely correlated with success this past year than stolen bases. 

Of course, I don't really buy the rhetoric from the front office, and believe (and hope) their decisions this offseason have been guided almost entirely by a desire to cut costs.

Ace in the Hole

I've touched briefly on the subject of a contract extension for Francisco Liriano a couple times, both in a guest post on Rob Neyer's SweetSpot blog at ESPN.com back in early August and in my offseason blueprint which appears in the GM Handbook.

Today, I'd like to delve a little deeper into the matter, as I feel that it is arguably the team's top priority this winter.

One of the main talking points among fans frustrated by the Twins' early playoff exit is the need for a legitimate ace to head the rotation. Fans watched the Twins' starters helplessly bow to the Yankees' potent hitters during the ALDS while Cliff Lee has shredded every lineup he's faced in helping carry the Rangers to a World Series berth, so that reaction is understandable.

However, many people seem to have a vague and mystical conception of what an "ace" is. It's not Liriano, they say, because while he was one of the league's most dominant pitchers this year (fifth in the American League in strikeouts, sixth in ground ball rate, best home run rate in baseball), he wasn't consistent enough, didn't pitch deep enough into games, and -- most importantly -- didn't come through in the postseason.

The problem is that you can count on one hand the number of pitchers who would satisfy that definition of an ace. There's only one Cliff Lee, folks. And while you can add Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and perhaps a few others to the list of consistently dominant starting pitchers who have outstanding postseason track records, these guys don't grow on trees. They are extremely tough to come by.

Take a look at a couple top Cy Young contenders in the AL and how they performed in the playoffs this year. CC Sabathia was not at all sharp, posting a 5.63 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over three starts. David Price went 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA for the Rays. Liriano's first five innings against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS were probably better than any stretch of pitching by either of those two this October.

Things came unraveled for Liriano in the sixth inning against a good offense, but that happens often to pitchers in the playoffs, even the ones that can legitimately be labeled aces. And while Liriano's inconsistency and inefficiency on the mound are marks against him, let's not forget that this was his first full, strong season since Tommy John surgery and he's still only 27 years old (younger than any pitcher I've mentioned in this article, save for Price and Lincecum). It's hardly fair to assume we've seen the best of him.

Aces are exceedingly difficult to come across and Liriano gives the Twins their best shot at having one over the next several years, so it's imperative that they keep him under team control. He's entering his second year of arbitration this offseason, so the Twins have the option of either continuing to go year-to-year with him or offering a multi-year deal.

In the Handbook, I suggest that the Twins sign Liriano to a three-year, $21 million deal. They pay him $4 million in 2011 (a bit less than he'd probably get through arbitration), $7 million in 2012 and buy out his first season of free agency in 2013 for $10 million. For a pitcher capable of the Liriano's dominance, that's a bargain, and considering his history of arm troubles I have to think that the southpaw would jump at the financial security. The downside, for him, is that if he starts to flourish his big payday comes one year later (when he'll still only be 31 -- younger than Lee is now) and the upside is that he's guaranteed $21 million no matter what happens to his arm.

It seems clear that Liriano wore down at the end of the year. Halfway through September, he was 14-7 with a 3.28 ERA, positioning himself as a sneaky Cy Young contender, but over his final four starts (including the playoffs) he went 0-3 with a 7.58 ERA. Given that Liriano racked up such a large workload between winter ball, spring training, the regular season and the playoffs, that shouldn't come as a huge surprise. But it doesn't really affect his long-term outlook, and in fact, the experience of logging all those innings may ultimately be beneficial for his arm strength. Now that he can finally spend an offseason resting rather than rehabbing or pitching in winter ball, I suspect he'll come out better than ever next season.

If that happens, he'll be a lot more expensive a year from now. Bill Smith would be wise to show foresight and buy low on the left-hander. The reward far outweighs the risk.

ALDS Game 1 Preview: Yankees @ Twins

Tonight, the Twins and Yankees will commence yet another ALDS face-off. It will mark the fourth time in eight years the two have matched up in the opening round of the playoffs -- same old story, right?

Except, this really isn't the same old story. Each of the past three postseason meetings between these two clubs has resulted in the same outcome -- a relatively comfortable series victory for the Yankees and a disappointing end to the Twins' season. Yet, none of those outcomes should have been particularly surprising, because in each case the Yankees were heavy favorites and clearly the superior team.

Never have the Twins been more disadvantaged than they were last year. They crept into the playoffs after an exciting but exhausting run in the final weeks of the regular-season, capped by a 12-inning marathon victory in Game 163. Emotionally and physically drained, the 88-win Twins traveled to Yankee Stadium to face the well-rested No. 1 seed in the American League.

In my preview of that series, I was appropriately pessimistic, listing the Twins' numerous shortcomings and concluding: "It's tough to imagine the Twins taking this series. In fact, it's pretty tough to imagine them even taking a game." Sure enough, they did not, but that should have come as no surprise and by no means should it have been viewed as some colossal failure on the part of Ron Gardenhire's club.

Similar circumstances have faced Gardy's Twins in each of their past ALDS match-ups with New York. As I mentioned earlier this week, on every occasion the Twins entered the playoffs with the worst record of any playoff qualifier in the American League, while the Yankees have been the league's No. 1 seed with over 100 regular-season wins. This year, for the first time, the Twins hold home field advantage and -- thanks largely to a substantial boost in payroll -- they actually match up pretty evenly with the Bronx Bombers.

Now, that's not to say that this series should be viewed as a cakewalk. The Yankees are a very good team that won 95 games in baseball's toughest division. They led the AL in runs scored, ranked second in OPS and third in homers. They have the game's best closer. Their Game 1 (and probable Game 4) starter is a top Cy Young candidate. As much as the Twins can claim to match up better than ever with the Yankees on paper, they still went 2-4 against them in the regular season after going 0-10 overall last year.

These Twins have much to prove. And winning Game 1 tonight is absolutely vital. Not only does it put Minnesota in the driver's seat -- costing the Yankees one of their two CC Sabathia starts and forcing them to win three of the final four games to move on -- but it helps address a stigma that has followed this team from the Metrodome to Target Field.

I don't doubt that the Twins believe they can beat the Yankees in a series, but let's be honest... they haven't done it in a long time.

Now, to break down tonight's pitching match-up and highlight one key player for each side:

CC Sabathia | 237.2 IP, 21-7, 3.18 ERA, 197/74 K/BB, 1.19 WHIP

Because he won 21 games this season while being backed by the league's best offense, there's a pretty good chance that Sabathia will capture the AL Cy Young Award for a second time in six years. That honor would be undeserved -- for reasons I detailed a few weeks ago -- but he certainly deserves to be in the conversation as one of the league's finest pitchers.

Sabathia excels in just about every aspect of the game. He's almost equally tough on lefties and righties. He boasts a solid strikeout rate and limits walks, hits and home runs. He's a big-framed workhorse who threw 110 or more pitches in 19 starts this season (his opponent in tonight's game surpassed the 110-pitch mark twice).  He seemingly faltered a bit late in the year, posting a 4.11 ERA over his final five starts, but mixed into that stretch were dominant road outings against the Rays and Blue Jays.

If the way Sabathia pitched all season, or the way he pitched for the Yankees in the postseason last year, are any indication, the Twins are not going to be scoring much against the hefty lefty this evening. And since Sabathia routinely completes seven or more innings, the Twins won't be able to rely on mounting their attack against the Yankees bullpen. In order to win, the Twins will need to try and scrape a few runs across against Sabathia and hope for a strong outing from their own guy...

Francisco Liriano | 191.2 IP, 14-10, 3.62 ERA, 201/58 K/BB, 1.26 WHIP

Liriano's stats looked a whole lot better halfway through September, when he was 14-7 with a 3.28 ERA, but he took a loss in each of his final three starts while allowing 12 runs on 17 hits -- five homers -- in 13 1/3 innings.

In spite of the uninspiring finish, Liriano was still one of the most dominating pitchers in the league this year. He was one of only five AL hurlers to notch over 200 strikeouts, posted an elite 53.6 percent ground ball rate and was better at keeping the ball in the park than any other starting pitcher in the majors. Those traits should play well against a Yankee offense that was heavy on homers and hit just .263/.343/.394 against ground ball pitchers. Basically, if Liriano is on top of his game, he can neutralize the strengths of this New York lineup.

The question, of course, is whether or not Liriano will be on top of his game. As mentioned before, he's not pitched well in any of his past three starts, and the fact that his historically fragile arm has now logged over 250 innings this year between the regular season, spring training and winter ball is somewhat worrisome. He also has little experience performing on this type of stage and some believe he gets overly jacked up when pitching in big spots.

Regardless of those factors, Liriano is the guy the Twins want on the mound tonight at Target Field, where he was a significantly better pitcher than on the road this season. If he can come through with a strong performance, he can help dispel two lingering myths -- that he shrivels in the spotlight, and that the Twins can't beat the Yankees.

KEY PLAYER -- YANKEES: Mark Teixeira, 1B

Liriano didn't allow a lot of home runs this year, but when he did, it usually didn't end well. In Liriano's seven starts that resulted in a loss, he allowed seven home runs. In his 21 starts that resulted in a win or no-decision, he allowed two. For a second straight year, Teixeira was New York's top home run hitter, going deep 33 times. As I mentioned in yesterday's Scouting the Enemy piece, the switch-hitting first baseman was also much more dangerous when swinging from the right side, and Liriano gave up all nine of his homers this year to right-handed batters.

KEY PLAYER -- TWINS: Delmon Young, LF

When the Twins have lost in the playoffs, it's been because they haven't scored. They'll have a tough time bucking that trend against Sabathia tonight, but one player who could play a big role is Young, their best hitter from the right side. Young had a breakout campaign, launching 20 homers and driving in 112 runs, and he'll be batting from the clean-up spot tonight. If he can keep his bat hot like it was in the final weeks of the regular season, he could be the difference-maker in the Twins lineup.

Francisco Liriano and BABIP

When Ron Gardenhire announced earlier this week that Francisco Liriano would get the nod in Game 1 of the ALDS, it officially marked an important milestone: After a long road to recovery from Tommy John surgery, the left-hander has finally claimed the No. 1 starter label that he seemed destined for as he torched the minor leagues and dominated in his first tour through the bigs.

Liriano's outstanding season has been crucial to the Twins' success. On a smaller level, it has served as a shining example of why the BABIP statistic is one worth considering whenever a pitcher's numbers don't seem to reflect his performance.

Back in mid-July, when Liriano's ERA had ballooned to a season-high 3.86 in the wake of a thrashing from the Tigers, I remarked that the left-hander is "one pitcher you don't need to worry about." I pointed out that Liriano's .361 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was unsustainably high for any pitcher, particularly one throwing as well as Liriano. He was doing what he needed -- getting ground balls and strikeouts while avoiding walks -- but had unfortunately been victimized by substandard defense and plain old bad luck.

As usual, I took some backlash for suggesting that Liriano's poor results might not be entirely his fault. Many believe that BABIP is a farce, and that if hitters are running up a high batting average against someone it's more than likely the pitchers fault. One commenter snarked, "Sometimes I wonder if you bloggers watch the games." Yet, over time, BABIP has proven to vary randomly for individual pitchers while always remaining steady for the league as a whole. (Major-league pitchers this year have a .298 BABIP. Last year: .299. The year before that: .300. And so forth.)

Liriano's BABIP since I wrote that article? It's .306, right in line with the league norm and drastically lower than the figure he posted over the first-half. Consequentially, Liriano has gone 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA since the All-Star break (compared to 6-7 with a 3.86 ERA prior), and it's not necessarily because he's pitched any differently.

Liriano allowed a lot more singles than he reasonably should have this season, and ultimately it caused him to allow more runs than he probably should have. That will cost him a shot at the Cy Young Award, for which he might have been a front-runner with better luck and run support.

It should not, however, cloud our view of him as one of the game's very best pitchers, and a guy who will give the Twins an advantageous pitching match-up in the first game of the playoffs whether he's facing CC Sabathia or David Price.

A Familiar Story

When Stephen Strasburg came up earlier this season, he took the league by storm. Whereas many young hurlers go through a sometimes lengthy adjustment period against the world's best hitters, Strasburg was immediately transcendent. He amazingly struck out 14 batters without issuing a walk in his major-league debut. As he moved forward, he continued to dominate opposing lineups, racking up strikeouts while turning in quality start after quality start. His stuff was amazing, allowing him to somehow make veteran star players look totally overmatched. The spectacle seemed like nothing I'd ever seen before.

Only, I had seen it before. In 2006, Francisco Liriano joined the Twins rotation with a similar air of dominance. In his first 12 starts, he went 10-2 with a 1.58 ERA and 83-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 79 2/3 innings. He wasn't quite the strikeout machine that Strasburg has been, but with his extreme ground ball tendencies, he was even more dominant than the Nationals phenom. If you don't believe me, compare the numbers.

Of course, Liriano's amazing rookie performance didn't carry the same level of hype as Strasburg, and for some good reasons. Liriano wasn't a No. 1 overall pick who'd rocketed through the minors in just a couple of months. He hadn't been widely labeled as the game's next great pitcher before he even threw a major-league pitch. Indeed, by the time Liriano joined Minnesota's rotation, he had already acclimated himself to the majors as a member of the Twins' bullpen, and had already accumulated nearly 500 innings in the minors whereas Strasburg was a 21-year-old with only 58 innings or professional experience.

Nevertheless, the devastation that struck Minnesota when it was learned late in that dazzling rookie campaign that Liriano had a torn ligament in his throwing arm and would require Tommy John surgery was eerily similar to the shock currently shaking the nation in the wake of Strasburg's own diagnosis this morning. Just like Liriano, Strasburg's torn ligament was discovered just over three months after he stepped into his team's rotation and began dominating. Just like the Twins, the Nationals will be forced to wait at least a year until their budding ace can return to action.

The blow is a little less severe for the Nationals from a competitive standpoint, as they're not tied up in a fierce postseason race like the Twins were and probably didn't have much of a shot at making the playoffs next year either. The blow to Washington's bottom line and fan base morale, however, is far more severe. Strasburg represented a shining beacon of hope for a franchise that has experienced little success in its six-year existence.


As a person who's been through this before, I wish I could offer words of comfort to those Nationals fans who are surely reeling from today's news. Unfortunately, I can't. The wait for Liriano to return to form was lengthy and frustrating. He first attempted to rejoin to the Twins at the outset of the 2008 season but struggled early on and spent several months in the minors while trying to regain his command. He ultimately returned to the Twins and pitched very well down the stretch, but wasn't the dominating force he was pre-surgery.

The 2009 season was a disaster. Liriano's control problems came to a forefront and he continually battle issues both physical and mental before finishing with a 5.80 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. It wasn't until this 2010 season -- a full three years removed from his surgery -- that Liriano has finally started to pitch like the elite starter he was prior to injuring his elbow. He showed that again last night in thoroughly outperforming one of the game's premier pitchers while helping the Twins pick up a big road victory.

That Liriano has finally returned to the front-line ace tier can be viewed as an encouraging sign for Nats fans; that it took as long as it did has to be harrowing. On the bright side, many starting pitchers have been able to make a full recovery from Tommy John surgery in a much shorter time span. Hopefully Strasburg can follow that path.

However, when I look at the stories of Strasburg and Liriano, I see a lot of similarities. For the sake of Nationals fans and baseball as a whole, let's hope the next chapter for Strasburg doesn't follow suit.

Lee and Liriano

As you might have heard, advanced statistics view Francisco Liriano quite highly this year. His combination of a high strikeout rate, high grounder rate and relatively strong walk rate have made him a sabermatrician's dream, as he ranks first in the majors with a 2.33 FIP and second only to Roy Halladay with a 3.00 xFIP (the latter metric penalizes Liriano slightly for what it views as an unsustainably low home run rate).

Of course, Liriano's actual results haven't been quite as strong as those figures would have us believe. He leads Twins starters with a 3.45 ERA but hasn't been quite the innings eater that, say, Carl Pavano has been. (Liriano has completed eight innings in a start only three times this year, while Pavs has done it nine times.)

The ability to regularly pitch deep into games is an extremely valuable skill. It is one that often eludes pitchers like Liriano, who throws very hard and often uses a high number of pitches in an effort to rack up strikeouts. Liriano is great, but he's not necessarily all that efficient, a flaw that is reflected in his less-than-stellar innings total and his unspectacular 1.28 WHIP.

That's what's so thoroughly impressive about the man who will toe the rubber opposite Liriano this evening. Cliff Lee also rates highly in most sabermetric categories, with a 2.55 FIP that ranks third in baseball and a 3.28 xFIP that ranks sixth. But he's also averaging well over an extra inning per start in comparison to Liriano. Lee has hurled seven complete games and averaged nearly eight innings per turn this season.


How does he do it? Durability is certainly a factor; Lee's arm doesn't wear down to the same degree as Liriano and he's routinely been pushed well past the 100-pitch mark this season. The key to Lee's approach, however, is his efficiency, rooted in the fact that he doesn't walk anybody. And I almost mean that literally. He's issued only 11 walks in 174 2/3 innings this year, and in that same span he's struck out 151 batters. That's good for a 13.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio that almost defies belief. The previous single-season record in the K/BB category is 11.0, set by Bret Saberhagen in 1994. Jim Whitney finished at 10.0 in 1884, an no other starting pitcher in major-league history has even managed a double-digit rate. What Lee's doing this year is historically amazing.

Liriano is special too, in his own way. He's one of baseball's best strikeout artists has amazingly allowed only thee home runs in 24 starts this year thanks to his ability to consistently keep the ball on the ground. His stuff is dazzling, but he's been susceptible to lapses in command, especially over the past couple weeks while he's been dealing with a bout of dead arm. Heck, in his last three starts, Liriano has issued more walks than Lee has all season, and as a result Liriano has looked a lot more like the trainwreck who struggled through the '09 campaign than a front-line ace on the same level as Lee.

Hopefully the additional rest Liriano was provided prior to tonight's start helps him pitch more like the guy who has dominated opposing lineups for much of the season. If so, we could be in for a treat as two of baseball's very best southpaws square off.

If not, the Twins will be in for some trouble tonight, and perhaps for the rest of the season.