During his entire career with the Twins, Joe Nathan was a testament to Terry Ryan's genius. Francisco Liriano, and to a lesser extent Boof Bonser, have had their moments, but Nathan was the prize gem acquired in what is widely viewed as Ryan's greatest move as a general manager.
Over a span of six years, Nathan was one of the two or three best closers in the league. He was a lights-out force at the back end of the Twins' bullpen, never succumbing to the sporadic down years that plague most relief pitchers in the majors. And Ryan managed to net this elite arm in return for one year of A.J. Pierzynski.
Now, one of the players that defined Ryan's previous tenure as GM is the first to exit under his latest. Last night, Nathan signed a two-year deal, $14.5 million with the Rangers.
The parting of ways makes sense from both perspectives. At age 37, Nathan's top priority is understandably winning. The Twins' chances of being legitimate a World Series contender within the next two years are suspect at best, whereas the Rangers will be a favorite out of the gates after falling a game short of glory this season.
Meanwhile, while team president Dave St. Peter tweeted last night that the Twins were never given a chance to match the offer, it doesn't really make a difference. Two years and $14 million was around the maximum that they could have afforded to offer, and Nathan probably would have required more -- perhaps significantly more -- to re-up, given the realities being faced here.
With so many needs left to address, it wasn't in the the Twins' best interests to make that kind of substantial investment in an aging reliever with a surgically repaired arm, even if he is the franchise's all-time saves leader.
Brace yourself, because Nathan won't be the last Terry Ryan success story to walk away this offseason. Michael Cuddyer is almost surely gone -- another victim of financial constraints -- and Jason Kubel could easily follow.
Then, Ryan will face the tall task of rebuilding the solid foundation he constructed in the early-to-mid 2000s, with limited funds and little in the way of tradable assets. This figures to a multi-year project.
As such, can you blame Nathan for heading south?
Showing posts with label nathan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nathan. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
An Easy Option
This offseason will carry plenty of difficult decisions for the Twins' front office, but they got one of the easier ones out of the way yesterday when they declined Joe Nathan's $12.5 million option for 2012.
The move officially consummates a contract that the closer originally inked prior to the 2008 campaign. Over the life of his four-year pact, Nathan pitched 181 innings with a 2.49 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 206-to-54 strikeout-to-walk ratio. When healthy, he remained one of the league's best relievers, but he also missed the entire 2010 season due to injury and went through some rough patches while working his way back in 2011.
It's a cautionary tale for handing expensive multi-year contracts to aging relievers -- one the Twins will have to bear in mind as they contemplate their next step with Nathan. After collecting his $2 million buyout, he'll hit the free agent market and he should have no trouble finding suitors. Despite a 4.84 ERA this past season, Nathan finished strong and posted encouraging peripherals (8.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP).
Losing their longtime closer would be a tough blow for the Twins, who desperately need effective arms at the back end of their bullpen. Yet, there are two major factors working in their favor. One is Nathan's age; he'll turn 37 next month, which, in combination with his surgically repaired arm, could be seen as a red flag. Another is that the free agent market for relievers is considerably deep.
Joining Nathan in the free agent pool are names like Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, Francisco Cordero, and Frank Francisco. All are hard-throwing righties with a history of closing, and all are younger than Nathan.
With this depth of competition, the Twins' all-time saves leader will probably have to settle for a two-year deal where the total money is close to the $12.5 million he would have made with his option.
So it's easy to see why the Twins bought out Nathan's 2012 season, even though it cost them a couple million. It's also easy to see why they should make a hard push to bring him back anyway.
The move officially consummates a contract that the closer originally inked prior to the 2008 campaign. Over the life of his four-year pact, Nathan pitched 181 innings with a 2.49 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 206-to-54 strikeout-to-walk ratio. When healthy, he remained one of the league's best relievers, but he also missed the entire 2010 season due to injury and went through some rough patches while working his way back in 2011.
It's a cautionary tale for handing expensive multi-year contracts to aging relievers -- one the Twins will have to bear in mind as they contemplate their next step with Nathan. After collecting his $2 million buyout, he'll hit the free agent market and he should have no trouble finding suitors. Despite a 4.84 ERA this past season, Nathan finished strong and posted encouraging peripherals (8.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP).
Losing their longtime closer would be a tough blow for the Twins, who desperately need effective arms at the back end of their bullpen. Yet, there are two major factors working in their favor. One is Nathan's age; he'll turn 37 next month, which, in combination with his surgically repaired arm, could be seen as a red flag. Another is that the free agent market for relievers is considerably deep.
Joining Nathan in the free agent pool are names like Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, Francisco Cordero, and Frank Francisco. All are hard-throwing righties with a history of closing, and all are younger than Nathan.
With this depth of competition, the Twins' all-time saves leader will probably have to settle for a two-year deal where the total money is close to the $12.5 million he would have made with his option.
So it's easy to see why the Twins bought out Nathan's 2012 season, even though it cost them a couple million. It's also easy to see why they should make a hard push to bring him back anyway.
Friday, October 07, 2011
What's Cuddyer Worth?
The Twins have three long-time staples hitting the free agent market this offseason, making it the biggest organizational crossroad since 2007, when the contracts of Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva expired.
The team had to let both those players go, while also trading Johan Santana, because in all three cases the contract demands were exorbitant. That's how it tends to go when 29 other teams are in the negotiating mix. With Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan all set to shop themselves this winter, some tough decisions lie ahead for the brain trust at Target Field.
Unlike 2007, the Twins are equipped financially to bring back all three players, although doing so might consume the bulk of their spending money. With a daunting variety of areas to address, as I outlined on Wednesday, it seems unlikely that all three players will be retained. I suspect that one or even two of these familiar faces will land elsewhere.
Of the three, Kubel is probably most expendable. Losing his reliable righty-mashing ability would sting, but the Twins -- ideally -- already have two middle-of-the-lineup left-handed bats on the roster and he's coming off a pair of underwhelming seasons. On the flip side, his injury hampered season might keep him affordable.
Nathan would be tougher to lose. The Twins are bereft of quality right-handed relief arms, and Matt Capps almost certainly won't be back. The team will clearly decline Nathan's $12.5 million option for next year but might be able to get him back on a two-year deal at the same price. If not, there will be quite a few alternatives on the market.
Cuddyer is the guy that the Twins really don't want to let get away. He's generally considered the clubhouse leader and is cherished by coaches, teammates and fans alike. He's the team's best outfield power bat, and his ability to play first has been invaluable with Justin Morneau's ongoing injury issues. If you remove Cuddyer from the roster, the best remaining right-handed bat might be… Danny Valencia? Trevor Plouffe? Not good.
Unfortunately, of the three players discussed here Cuddyer has the most leverage entering this offseason. He's coming off a very solid campaign in which he posted an .805 OPS with 20 home runs while making his first All-Star team. He might just be the second-best right-handed bat on the market behind Albert Pujols.
The Twins reportedly offered Cuddyer a two-year, $16 million extension during the season, but they had to know that wouldn't come close to getting it done. Given his high rank within the free agent class and his sterling reputation, Cuddyer should be able to get three or even four years at an average of $10 million or more.
At that point, the Twins need to look past their affinity for him and honestly assess how they think his game will age. Locking into a contract that assures a potentially declining 36-year-old big money down the line is not a situation the Twins need to get themselves into.
My guess? The Twins' best offer will be a three-year deal, at maybe a little over $30 million, with a team option for 2015. If Cuddyer won't budge on a guaranteed fourth year, I'd guess he'll be playing for another team next season.
The team had to let both those players go, while also trading Johan Santana, because in all three cases the contract demands were exorbitant. That's how it tends to go when 29 other teams are in the negotiating mix. With Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan all set to shop themselves this winter, some tough decisions lie ahead for the brain trust at Target Field.
Unlike 2007, the Twins are equipped financially to bring back all three players, although doing so might consume the bulk of their spending money. With a daunting variety of areas to address, as I outlined on Wednesday, it seems unlikely that all three players will be retained. I suspect that one or even two of these familiar faces will land elsewhere.
Of the three, Kubel is probably most expendable. Losing his reliable righty-mashing ability would sting, but the Twins -- ideally -- already have two middle-of-the-lineup left-handed bats on the roster and he's coming off a pair of underwhelming seasons. On the flip side, his injury hampered season might keep him affordable.
Nathan would be tougher to lose. The Twins are bereft of quality right-handed relief arms, and Matt Capps almost certainly won't be back. The team will clearly decline Nathan's $12.5 million option for next year but might be able to get him back on a two-year deal at the same price. If not, there will be quite a few alternatives on the market.
Cuddyer is the guy that the Twins really don't want to let get away. He's generally considered the clubhouse leader and is cherished by coaches, teammates and fans alike. He's the team's best outfield power bat, and his ability to play first has been invaluable with Justin Morneau's ongoing injury issues. If you remove Cuddyer from the roster, the best remaining right-handed bat might be… Danny Valencia? Trevor Plouffe? Not good.
Unfortunately, of the three players discussed here Cuddyer has the most leverage entering this offseason. He's coming off a very solid campaign in which he posted an .805 OPS with 20 home runs while making his first All-Star team. He might just be the second-best right-handed bat on the market behind Albert Pujols.
The Twins reportedly offered Cuddyer a two-year, $16 million extension during the season, but they had to know that wouldn't come close to getting it done. Given his high rank within the free agent class and his sterling reputation, Cuddyer should be able to get three or even four years at an average of $10 million or more.
At that point, the Twins need to look past their affinity for him and honestly assess how they think his game will age. Locking into a contract that assures a potentially declining 36-year-old big money down the line is not a situation the Twins need to get themselves into.
My guess? The Twins' best offer will be a three-year deal, at maybe a little over $30 million, with a team option for 2015. If Cuddyer won't budge on a guaranteed fourth year, I'd guess he'll be playing for another team next season.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Three-Bagger: Morneau, Nathan, & Span
* The biggest star for the Twins in their abbreviated sweep over the Indians this past weekend was Justin Morneau, who returned from an extended battle with the flu and went 4-for-8 with four RBI. Though he seemed lost in his first couple weeks of action before falling ill (to be expected after an eight-month hiatus), Morneau looked more like his old self in the Cleveland series, coming through with big run-scoring hits in key situations and consistently hitting the ball with authority -- even on fouls and outs.
Jason Bay, another Canadian who had his 2010 season ended in July by a concussion, went deep for the Mets on Saturday, marking his first homer since suffering the brain injury. We're still waiting for Morneau to achieve that milestone, but it can't be far off with the way he was crushing the ball on Saturday and Sunday.
* After struggling in his first handful of appearances, Joe Nathan was relegated to to a low-leverage role in the bullpen. The ninth inning of Saturday's game, with the Twins leading by seven runs, fit the bill.
Jason Bay, another Canadian who had his 2010 season ended in July by a concussion, went deep for the Mets on Saturday, marking his first homer since suffering the brain injury. We're still waiting for Morneau to achieve that milestone, but it can't be far off with the way he was crushing the ball on Saturday and Sunday.
* After struggling in his first handful of appearances, Joe Nathan was relegated to to a low-leverage role in the bullpen. The ninth inning of Saturday's game, with the Twins leading by seven runs, fit the bill.
It wasn't exactly a save situation, but Nathan slammed the door on Cleveland with his most impressive outing this season. He retired the side in order while striking out two, including Orlando Cabrera on perhaps the best slider I've seen him throw all year.
This one outing hardly has me declaring Nathan fit to retake a late-inning role, but it's a step in the right direction. Building confidence with performances like this might be as important as anything to the right-hander's recovery.
* One of the most frustrating aspects of the Twins' slow offensive start has been their allergy to walks. After ranking fourth in the American League in free passes last year with largely the same group of hitters, they entered this past weekend ranked dead last.
Perhaps no one has been more emblematic of this lack of patience than Denard Span. The leadoff man is hitting the ball well, with a .318 average through 20 games, but he's drawn only five walks in his first 90 plate appearances – less than 6 percent.
Year | BB% |
2008 | 12.1 |
2009 | 10.3 |
2010 | 8.5 |
2011 | 5.6 |
As you can see from the table above, Span's ability to take walks has steadily declined since he debuted in the majors four years ago.
As of today, his OBP sits at .356 thanks to a robust batting average. That’s an acceptable mark for a leadoff man, but it appears as though the days of Span getting on base at a .390 clip are over, and if he can’t keep sneaking grounders through the infield with regularity his OBP could dip to mediocre depths.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Return on Investment
After losing 11-0 last night to an Orioles team that had dropped eight straight, the Twins sit at 6-11 on the season. They have been outscored 83-50 in 17 games, averaging less than three runs per contest. They rank last in the major leagues in runs, walks, home runs and OPS.
Things are as grim as can be.
They will get better. Even with the injuries and the presence of offensive black holes like Alexi Casilla and Drew Butera, the Twins are not going to remain the worst-hitting team in baseball for long. They're too talented.
But the inevitability of improvement for their mind-numbingly bad offensive start does nothing to erase the more legitimate long-term concerns that have manifested in the early going.
In analyzing the 2011 squad as the season approached, the one thing that most deeply concerned me was the precariousness of the club's principal investments. Yes, the Twins pumped payroll up to an all-time high $112 million, but much of that money was tied up in significant question marks.
It wasn't the cheap role players like Casilla and Butera who would determine this team's fate. It was the hobbled veterans whose bulky salaries forced the team to part with quality players like Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, not to mention the entire bullpen.
So far, those pricy question marks have not fared well.
Joe Mauer, earning $23 million, struggled to a .554 OPS with one-extra base hit in nine games before landing on the disabled list with a bizarre assortment of ailments. There's no firm timetable in place for his return.
Justin Morneau, earning $14 million, has admirably returned to the field after a long battle with post-concussion syndrome, but has not been at all effective. He managed 11 hits -- no homers -- and three walks in 56 plate appearances before missing the last three games with the flu.
Joe Nathan, earning $11.5 million, also earns respect points for his recovery from serious injury, but it is evident that he does not belong on the major-league roster at this point. He is only hurting the club by occupying a spot in a bullpen that is already lacking trustworthy options.
The underrated Michael Cuddyer, earning $10.5 million, owns a .608 OPS with no homers, and still hasn't driven in one run in 16 games.
Those four players account for nearly half the payroll, and none have yielded any meaningful production up to this point. Throw in the struggles of moderately expensive players like Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Delmon Young and Matt Capps, and it shouldn't be difficult to see why the team is struggling so mightily.
The front office invested a lot of money into this 2011 roster and so far they've been ripped off by the hideous product on the field. Hopefully these players can get over their illnesses, rust, slumps and mental blocks in a hurry, because these dismal performances are getting harder to watch for fans and harder to justify for a $112M team that should be amidst a window of contention.
Things are as grim as can be.
They will get better. Even with the injuries and the presence of offensive black holes like Alexi Casilla and Drew Butera, the Twins are not going to remain the worst-hitting team in baseball for long. They're too talented.
But the inevitability of improvement for their mind-numbingly bad offensive start does nothing to erase the more legitimate long-term concerns that have manifested in the early going.
In analyzing the 2011 squad as the season approached, the one thing that most deeply concerned me was the precariousness of the club's principal investments. Yes, the Twins pumped payroll up to an all-time high $112 million, but much of that money was tied up in significant question marks.
It wasn't the cheap role players like Casilla and Butera who would determine this team's fate. It was the hobbled veterans whose bulky salaries forced the team to part with quality players like Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, not to mention the entire bullpen.
So far, those pricy question marks have not fared well.
Joe Mauer, earning $23 million, struggled to a .554 OPS with one-extra base hit in nine games before landing on the disabled list with a bizarre assortment of ailments. There's no firm timetable in place for his return.
Justin Morneau, earning $14 million, has admirably returned to the field after a long battle with post-concussion syndrome, but has not been at all effective. He managed 11 hits -- no homers -- and three walks in 56 plate appearances before missing the last three games with the flu.
Joe Nathan, earning $11.5 million, also earns respect points for his recovery from serious injury, but it is evident that he does not belong on the major-league roster at this point. He is only hurting the club by occupying a spot in a bullpen that is already lacking trustworthy options.
The underrated Michael Cuddyer, earning $10.5 million, owns a .608 OPS with no homers, and still hasn't driven in one run in 16 games.
Those four players account for nearly half the payroll, and none have yielded any meaningful production up to this point. Throw in the struggles of moderately expensive players like Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Delmon Young and Matt Capps, and it shouldn't be difficult to see why the team is struggling so mightily.
The front office invested a lot of money into this 2011 roster and so far they've been ripped off by the hideous product on the field. Hopefully these players can get over their illnesses, rust, slumps and mental blocks in a hurry, because these dismal performances are getting harder to watch for fans and harder to justify for a $112M team that should be amidst a window of contention.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Loyalty
Among sports franchises I've followed, the Twins stand out as the most boldly loyal. They promote from within, they've had two managers in the past 25 years, and they treat the players they like very, very well.
Loyalty is by no means a negative trait. To the contrary -- it's likely a big part of the reason that the Twins are held in such high regard around the league. But there is such a thing as "loyal to a fault," and I think we've seen it play out in the way Joe Nathan's return has been handled.
Nathan deserves a great deal of respect for his demeanor, determination and work ethic over the past year. When he learned last March that he was ticketed for Tommy John surgery, he immediately set his sights on retaking the closer position at the outset of the 2011 season.
Without a doubt, Nathan did everything in his power to expedite his recovery. When spring training got underway this year, he was there on the mound, throwing to live batters, just like he said he would be. Sort of amazing.
But, looking past the heartwarming story, there was little to suggest Nathan was ready to be pitching high-leverage relief innings in the major leagues. Still just 12 months removed from a surgery that normally takes at least 16 for full recovery, Nathan was throwing with noticeably decreased velocity and spotty command in exhibition play.
His spring training numbers showed it. In nine appearances, the right-hander was blown up for nine runs on 10 hits and four walks, managing only three strikeouts.
Yes, spring training numbers usually should be taken with a grain of salt, but Nathan was fighting for a job. Even looking beyond the hits and walks, the fact that he was able to notch only three strikeouts in nine appearances while trying to prove he had the stuff to close games should have been an immediate red flag. But when the time came, Ron Gardenhire and Co. made the decision everyone expected. They awarded Nathan the closer role over Matt Capps, who'd been vastly superior.
It took no more than one appearance this season for the casual baseball observer to recognize that Nathan didn't have it. His fastball sporadically dipped under 90 MPH, he repeatedly missed his spots, and his breaking pitches lacked consistent bite. As the season has progressed, things have unfolded about as you would expect, given these issues.
Nathan, once a strikeout artist, has managed to whiff only three of the 27 batters he has faced. He's walked five and allowed six hits -- including a monster home run in Saturday's game that tagged him with his second blown save in a span of three days.
After the game, a humbled Nathan volunteered for a demotion. He'll settle into a low-leverage role that minimizes the damage he can do while he tries to figure things out. That doesn't really do any favors to a bullpen that's already short on trustworthy late-inning options.
Capps' move into the closer role will obviously open up more high-leverage spots in the seventh and eighth innings. Gardenhire makes it sound as though many of those opportunities will go to Glen Perkins, another player to whom the Twins have been fiercely loyal -- almost to a baffling degree.
Loyal to a fault? We'll see.
Loyalty is by no means a negative trait. To the contrary -- it's likely a big part of the reason that the Twins are held in such high regard around the league. But there is such a thing as "loyal to a fault," and I think we've seen it play out in the way Joe Nathan's return has been handled.
Nathan deserves a great deal of respect for his demeanor, determination and work ethic over the past year. When he learned last March that he was ticketed for Tommy John surgery, he immediately set his sights on retaking the closer position at the outset of the 2011 season.
Without a doubt, Nathan did everything in his power to expedite his recovery. When spring training got underway this year, he was there on the mound, throwing to live batters, just like he said he would be. Sort of amazing.
But, looking past the heartwarming story, there was little to suggest Nathan was ready to be pitching high-leverage relief innings in the major leagues. Still just 12 months removed from a surgery that normally takes at least 16 for full recovery, Nathan was throwing with noticeably decreased velocity and spotty command in exhibition play.
His spring training numbers showed it. In nine appearances, the right-hander was blown up for nine runs on 10 hits and four walks, managing only three strikeouts.
Yes, spring training numbers usually should be taken with a grain of salt, but Nathan was fighting for a job. Even looking beyond the hits and walks, the fact that he was able to notch only three strikeouts in nine appearances while trying to prove he had the stuff to close games should have been an immediate red flag. But when the time came, Ron Gardenhire and Co. made the decision everyone expected. They awarded Nathan the closer role over Matt Capps, who'd been vastly superior.
 |
| (Steve Nesius, AP) |
It took no more than one appearance this season for the casual baseball observer to recognize that Nathan didn't have it. His fastball sporadically dipped under 90 MPH, he repeatedly missed his spots, and his breaking pitches lacked consistent bite. As the season has progressed, things have unfolded about as you would expect, given these issues.
Nathan, once a strikeout artist, has managed to whiff only three of the 27 batters he has faced. He's walked five and allowed six hits -- including a monster home run in Saturday's game that tagged him with his second blown save in a span of three days.
After the game, a humbled Nathan volunteered for a demotion. He'll settle into a low-leverage role that minimizes the damage he can do while he tries to figure things out. That doesn't really do any favors to a bullpen that's already short on trustworthy late-inning options.
Capps' move into the closer role will obviously open up more high-leverage spots in the seventh and eighth innings. Gardenhire makes it sound as though many of those opportunities will go to Glen Perkins, another player to whom the Twins have been fiercely loyal -- almost to a baffling degree.
Loyal to a fault? We'll see.
Monday, April 04, 2011
Oh, Canada
The Twins don't match up very well against power-hitting teams in homer-friendly stadiums. This has been the case throughout recent years, and will likely remain true as long as they continue to emphasize pitching to contact and swinging for singles.
Last year the Twins went 3-6 against the Blue Jays, and over the offseason the front office only increased its emphasis on the aforementioned dynamics, so I hardly expected the team to fare well in its season-opening series against the Blue Jays in Toronto.
Still, I don't think anyone was anticipating the sort of hideous effort the Twins put forth in their first two games of the season. After a winter full of bad news, things had finally started to come together at the end of spring training for this group. Everyone had finally gotten healthy just in the nick of time, and the majority of key players had looked extremely sharp in exhibition play.
It seemed as though this team was ready to jump out of the gates and take some people by surprise. Instead, the Twins were blown out 13-3 on Friday and held to one hit in a 6-1 defeat on Saturday. They looked stunningly bad in every aspect of the game: starters failed to complete even five innings, defenders blundered repeatedly, relievers allowed deficits to grow, and hitters looked totally clueless.
The Twins salvaged the series by squeaking by in a 4-3 win yesterday, but it's tough to be encouraged by much of what we saw on opening weekend. Some thoughts:
* The short-term reaction to yesterday's game is to be relieved that the Twins escaped Toronto with a win. The long-term reaction is to be perturbed by how shaky Joe Nathan looked in closing out the victory.
Nathan entered with a two-run lead after Denard Span homered in the top of the ninth to provide some extra breathing room. That insurance run would prove crucial, as Nathan labored through his first save chance since 2009, allowing one run on two hits and two walks while throwing 31 pitches (only 15 of them strikes). Two of the outs Nathan recorded were line drives tracked down by sprinting outfielders at the warning track.
Facing the Blue Jays in Toronto in his first official outing since Tommy John surgery is certainly a tough assignment so I'm tempted to cut Nathan some slack, but what's most worrisome is the actual quality of his pitches. His fastball, which regularly sat in the mid-90s prior to surgery, topped out at 91 mph and on occasion failed to even reach 90. His breaking pitches, snappy and precise prior to surgery, registered in the low 80s and bounced before reaching home plate multiple times.
Nathan is only 12 months removed from having a ligament replaced in his elbow, and for most pitchers it takes longer than that to fully regain velocity and command. If his work in spring training and Sunday's regular-season debut are any indication, those capacities haven't returned yet for Nathan. It's not clear whether he can be effective in the closer role -- or even a late-inning relief role -- without them.
* The Twins have shown a lot of confidence in Nathan throughout his recovery process.
During the offseason, they let Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes all walk as free agents, trusting that the departures would be largely offset by Nathan's return.
After Nathan struggled through spring training, posting a 9.72 ERA with more walks than strikeouts, the Twins continued to show confidence in him by awarding him the closer role despite Capps' almost flawless performance in Grapefruit League play.
Yesterday came Ron Gardenhire's boldest vote of confidence yet. Nathan had loaded the bases and thrown over 30 pitches in the bottom of the ninth, and the Jays had left-hander Adam Lind stepping into the box. Dusty Hughes was warm in the bullpen, ready to relieve the beleaguered closer, but Gardenhire remained in the dugout, leaving Nathan on to face Lind.
That confidence paid off, as Nathan induced a weak grounder to first to end the game, but one is left asking: should Nathan continue to pitch this way, how long will Gardy's confidence remain intact?
* In his final plate appearance yesterday, Tsuyoshi Nishioka stood with the bat on his shoulder with two strikes and watched at least two pitches from Rauch clip the strike zone. Fortunately for him, home plate umpire Paul Schrieber was apparently feeling generous and Nishioka ended up on first base with a walk rather than in the dugout with his sixth strikeout in three games.
The Japanese import has looked out of his element against major-league pitching early on. At the plate, he's been tentative, seemingly unaware that umpires at this level will call strikes on the edge of the zone. Many of the balls he put in play over the weekend came on weak contact created by defensive swings.
Regardless of all the enthusiasm created by a superficial spring training hit streak, a slow start should be the expectation for Nishioka. As with any rookie playing in the majors for the first time, he must adjust to a learning curve, and the transition is made more difficult by a new culture and -- in many ways -- a new style of playing the game.
* As one of his most avid supporters, I take no pleasure in saying that Francisco Liriano looked dreadful in his season debut on Saturday. His results weren't quite as disastrous as Carl Pavano's dud on Opening Night, but Liriano was able to work through only 4 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on four hits (two homers) and five walks while striking out three. Only 44 of the southpaw's 90 pitches met the strike zone. No one is going to be blaming this one on bad luck.
I'm not terribly concerned about Liriano's shoddy command; that's not uncommon for power pitchers early in the season (see Jon Lester's debut for the Red Sox). More alarming was the lack of bite on his pitches. His fastball sat several ticks lower than we typically saw it last season and was ineffective in setting up the slider, which itself was inconsistent in location and velocity.
When he's on top of his game, Liriano makes a living on mixing mid-90s heaters with biting sliders -- overpowering pitches that often miss the zone but induce a lot of whiffs. This style could be referred to as effectively wild. When the offerings are lacking as they were on Saturday afternoon, there's nothing effective about his wildness.
* Pavano was absolutely crushed on Friday night, but here's a fact to keep in mind. In his third start last year, the veteran righty allowed seven runs on 11 hits over 3 1/3 innings against the Royals (yes, the Royals). He followed that up with four straight quality starts in which he pitched at least seven innings. Pavano is susceptible to the occasional bombing, but he should be fine going forward.
* The Twins don't match up very well against power-hitting teams in homer-friendly stadiums. Have I said that before? Well it's a bitter truth as the club now heads to New York for a four-game series against the Yankees.
With no break in sight (the Twins don't have an off day until the 11th), the back end of Gardenhire's bullpen is worn down. The team's been very vocal about protecting Nathan's arm early in the season, and he threw a lot of pitches yesterday. Meanwhile, Jose Mijares and Matt Capps have appeared in consecutive games. It will be interesting to see how the manager deploys relievers over the next couple days, especially if he faces tight late-game situations.
Last year the Twins went 3-6 against the Blue Jays, and over the offseason the front office only increased its emphasis on the aforementioned dynamics, so I hardly expected the team to fare well in its season-opening series against the Blue Jays in Toronto.
Still, I don't think anyone was anticipating the sort of hideous effort the Twins put forth in their first two games of the season. After a winter full of bad news, things had finally started to come together at the end of spring training for this group. Everyone had finally gotten healthy just in the nick of time, and the majority of key players had looked extremely sharp in exhibition play.
It seemed as though this team was ready to jump out of the gates and take some people by surprise. Instead, the Twins were blown out 13-3 on Friday and held to one hit in a 6-1 defeat on Saturday. They looked stunningly bad in every aspect of the game: starters failed to complete even five innings, defenders blundered repeatedly, relievers allowed deficits to grow, and hitters looked totally clueless.
The Twins salvaged the series by squeaking by in a 4-3 win yesterday, but it's tough to be encouraged by much of what we saw on opening weekend. Some thoughts:
* The short-term reaction to yesterday's game is to be relieved that the Twins escaped Toronto with a win. The long-term reaction is to be perturbed by how shaky Joe Nathan looked in closing out the victory.
Nathan entered with a two-run lead after Denard Span homered in the top of the ninth to provide some extra breathing room. That insurance run would prove crucial, as Nathan labored through his first save chance since 2009, allowing one run on two hits and two walks while throwing 31 pitches (only 15 of them strikes). Two of the outs Nathan recorded were line drives tracked down by sprinting outfielders at the warning track.
Facing the Blue Jays in Toronto in his first official outing since Tommy John surgery is certainly a tough assignment so I'm tempted to cut Nathan some slack, but what's most worrisome is the actual quality of his pitches. His fastball, which regularly sat in the mid-90s prior to surgery, topped out at 91 mph and on occasion failed to even reach 90. His breaking pitches, snappy and precise prior to surgery, registered in the low 80s and bounced before reaching home plate multiple times.
Nathan is only 12 months removed from having a ligament replaced in his elbow, and for most pitchers it takes longer than that to fully regain velocity and command. If his work in spring training and Sunday's regular-season debut are any indication, those capacities haven't returned yet for Nathan. It's not clear whether he can be effective in the closer role -- or even a late-inning relief role -- without them.
* The Twins have shown a lot of confidence in Nathan throughout his recovery process.
During the offseason, they let Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes all walk as free agents, trusting that the departures would be largely offset by Nathan's return.
After Nathan struggled through spring training, posting a 9.72 ERA with more walks than strikeouts, the Twins continued to show confidence in him by awarding him the closer role despite Capps' almost flawless performance in Grapefruit League play.
Yesterday came Ron Gardenhire's boldest vote of confidence yet. Nathan had loaded the bases and thrown over 30 pitches in the bottom of the ninth, and the Jays had left-hander Adam Lind stepping into the box. Dusty Hughes was warm in the bullpen, ready to relieve the beleaguered closer, but Gardenhire remained in the dugout, leaving Nathan on to face Lind.
That confidence paid off, as Nathan induced a weak grounder to first to end the game, but one is left asking: should Nathan continue to pitch this way, how long will Gardy's confidence remain intact?
* In his final plate appearance yesterday, Tsuyoshi Nishioka stood with the bat on his shoulder with two strikes and watched at least two pitches from Rauch clip the strike zone. Fortunately for him, home plate umpire Paul Schrieber was apparently feeling generous and Nishioka ended up on first base with a walk rather than in the dugout with his sixth strikeout in three games.
The Japanese import has looked out of his element against major-league pitching early on. At the plate, he's been tentative, seemingly unaware that umpires at this level will call strikes on the edge of the zone. Many of the balls he put in play over the weekend came on weak contact created by defensive swings.
Regardless of all the enthusiasm created by a superficial spring training hit streak, a slow start should be the expectation for Nishioka. As with any rookie playing in the majors for the first time, he must adjust to a learning curve, and the transition is made more difficult by a new culture and -- in many ways -- a new style of playing the game.
* As one of his most avid supporters, I take no pleasure in saying that Francisco Liriano looked dreadful in his season debut on Saturday. His results weren't quite as disastrous as Carl Pavano's dud on Opening Night, but Liriano was able to work through only 4 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on four hits (two homers) and five walks while striking out three. Only 44 of the southpaw's 90 pitches met the strike zone. No one is going to be blaming this one on bad luck.
I'm not terribly concerned about Liriano's shoddy command; that's not uncommon for power pitchers early in the season (see Jon Lester's debut for the Red Sox). More alarming was the lack of bite on his pitches. His fastball sat several ticks lower than we typically saw it last season and was ineffective in setting up the slider, which itself was inconsistent in location and velocity.
When he's on top of his game, Liriano makes a living on mixing mid-90s heaters with biting sliders -- overpowering pitches that often miss the zone but induce a lot of whiffs. This style could be referred to as effectively wild. When the offerings are lacking as they were on Saturday afternoon, there's nothing effective about his wildness.
* Pavano was absolutely crushed on Friday night, but here's a fact to keep in mind. In his third start last year, the veteran righty allowed seven runs on 11 hits over 3 1/3 innings against the Royals (yes, the Royals). He followed that up with four straight quality starts in which he pitched at least seven innings. Pavano is susceptible to the occasional bombing, but he should be fine going forward.
* The Twins don't match up very well against power-hitting teams in homer-friendly stadiums. Have I said that before? Well it's a bitter truth as the club now heads to New York for a four-game series against the Yankees.
With no break in sight (the Twins don't have an off day until the 11th), the back end of Gardenhire's bullpen is worn down. The team's been very vocal about protecting Nathan's arm early in the season, and he threw a lot of pitches yesterday. Meanwhile, Jose Mijares and Matt Capps have appeared in consecutive games. It will be interesting to see how the manager deploys relievers over the next couple days, especially if he faces tight late-game situations.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher
Yesterday, I broke down the starting rotation, which I deemed to be "the club's strongest and deepest position." Today we look at a unit that falls on the opposite end of the spectrum. Unless you're engaging in starry-eyed optimism, it's tough to view the bullpen as a strength for the Twins as we enter the 2011 season. They lost several quality relief arms during the offseason and signed no one to replace any of them, so much will hinge on a return to form from Joe Nathan and the emergence of several unproven hurlers in unfamiliar roles.
Fortunately, the bullpen is certainly an area that can be improved over the course of the summer through in-season acquisitions, but that means parting with assets when there were a number of established relief pitchers available for nothing but a few million dollars (or less) during the offseason.
Let's take a look at how the bullpen shapes up as we enter the 2011 season:
Joe Nathan
2010 Stats: Did not pitch
After missing the 2010 season with Tommy John surgery, Nathan entered spring training this year under the pretense that he would have to earn back a closer role that had been held by incumbent Matt Capps. As it turns out, the basis for the coaching staff's evaluation on this matter was not performance, as Nathan has been awarded closing duties despite allowing nine runs on 10 hits over 7 1/3 innings this month with four walks and only three strikeouts. Those numbers are certainly concerning coming from someone who hasn't pitched in a year after undergoing a serious elbow operation, but the Twins like what they've seen in terms of velocity and command from Nathan so hopefully their confidence is well warranted. If not, they do have the luxury of Capps waiting in the setup role.
Matt Capps
2010 Stats: 73 IP, 42 SV, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB
The Twins gave up too much to get Capps at the trade deadline last July and this year they're paying him too much money. What's done is done, though, and at this point we're better off appreciating what he provides to the bullpen. Nathan's status will remain a question mark until we've seen him successfully close out several games, and should his spring training struggles persist Ron Gardenhire won't hesitate in shifting the proven Capps into the role. That's not a good scenario, since someone else would have to fill Capps' role as top right-handed setup man and no other candidate for that role has much experience pitching high-leverage relief innings in the majors.
Jose Mijares
2010 Stats: 32.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 28/9 K/BB
The 2010 season was a forgettable one for Mijares. Injuries limited him to about half of his normal workload, and when he was on the field he often lacked his typical sharpness. This year, the lefty is reportedly adding a two-seam fastball to his repertoire, which should improve his results against right-handed hitters (a vital skill in a bullpen that already includes two other left-handers). Mijares came to camp looking trimmer this year; if healthy, he should be a quality late-inning option throughout the season.
Kevin Slowey
2010 Stats: 155.2 IP, 13-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 116/29 K/BB
Setting expectations for Slowey the reliever is not easy. We know that he's a good pitcher, and it's not hard to see his outstanding control being a real asset in the bullpen. Then again, he's made only four relief appearances in his major-league career after serving as a starter almost exclusively throughout the minors, so this is new territory for the righty. How will he handle being called on to throw in tight late-game situations? Will pitching in one-inning stints allow him to add a few ticks to his 89-mph fastball? Will his secondary stuff be maximized? Slowey certainly has the potential to succeed in relief, but like many other members of this unit he's a question mark.
Glen Perkins
2010 Stats: 21.2 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 14/5 K/BB
As a 28-year-old who's out of options and hasn't been effective since the 2008 season, Perkins seemed like a lock to be non-tendered this offseason. Instead, the Twins gave him a contract and now a spot in their bullpen. The team has cited Perkins' solid performance while pitching in relief last September as a key reason for retaining him, but -- even looking beyond the fact that opponents hit .326 against him during that minuscule 12-inning sample -- this seems awfully short-sighted. Perkins doesn't miss bats, has been bad against lefties and has always been a guy who's allowed a lot of base runners. I don't get it.
Dusty Hughes
2010 Stats: 56.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 34/24 K/BB
The Twins were very impressed when they faced Hughes as a left-handed reliever for the Royals last year. It's not hard to see why; when playing against Minnesota the southpaw allowed only three runs on nine hits over 13 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he'll no longer be able to face the Twins and against all other opponents Hughes posted a 4.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 28-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 43 innings. In other words, he wasn't very good, and it was his first extended look in the majors as a 28-year-old who'd been fairly unspectacular in the minors. Dedicating two spots in a questionable bullpen to pitchers like Hughes and Perkins strikes me as an extremely bizarre decision.
Jeff Manship
2010 Stats: 29 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 21/6 K/BB
Rounding out the bullpen at the onset of the 2010 season will be Manship, a guy who spent some time there last season. In his big-league career, the right-hander has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, which aren't exactly the kind of numbers that inspire late-inning confidence. Manship has been quite hittable ever since reaching reaching the highest levels (he's allowed 260 hits over 209 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors) and unless that changes he won't be particularly useful. It will be interesting to see how Gardenhire elects to utilize him.
Fortunately, the bullpen is certainly an area that can be improved over the course of the summer through in-season acquisitions, but that means parting with assets when there were a number of established relief pitchers available for nothing but a few million dollars (or less) during the offseason.
Let's take a look at how the bullpen shapes up as we enter the 2011 season:
Joe Nathan
2010 Stats: Did not pitch
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| Charles Krupa, AP |
Matt Capps
2010 Stats: 73 IP, 42 SV, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB
The Twins gave up too much to get Capps at the trade deadline last July and this year they're paying him too much money. What's done is done, though, and at this point we're better off appreciating what he provides to the bullpen. Nathan's status will remain a question mark until we've seen him successfully close out several games, and should his spring training struggles persist Ron Gardenhire won't hesitate in shifting the proven Capps into the role. That's not a good scenario, since someone else would have to fill Capps' role as top right-handed setup man and no other candidate for that role has much experience pitching high-leverage relief innings in the majors.
Jose Mijares
2010 Stats: 32.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 28/9 K/BB
The 2010 season was a forgettable one for Mijares. Injuries limited him to about half of his normal workload, and when he was on the field he often lacked his typical sharpness. This year, the lefty is reportedly adding a two-seam fastball to his repertoire, which should improve his results against right-handed hitters (a vital skill in a bullpen that already includes two other left-handers). Mijares came to camp looking trimmer this year; if healthy, he should be a quality late-inning option throughout the season.
Kevin Slowey
2010 Stats: 155.2 IP, 13-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 116/29 K/BB
Setting expectations for Slowey the reliever is not easy. We know that he's a good pitcher, and it's not hard to see his outstanding control being a real asset in the bullpen. Then again, he's made only four relief appearances in his major-league career after serving as a starter almost exclusively throughout the minors, so this is new territory for the righty. How will he handle being called on to throw in tight late-game situations? Will pitching in one-inning stints allow him to add a few ticks to his 89-mph fastball? Will his secondary stuff be maximized? Slowey certainly has the potential to succeed in relief, but like many other members of this unit he's a question mark.
Glen Perkins
2010 Stats: 21.2 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 14/5 K/BB
As a 28-year-old who's out of options and hasn't been effective since the 2008 season, Perkins seemed like a lock to be non-tendered this offseason. Instead, the Twins gave him a contract and now a spot in their bullpen. The team has cited Perkins' solid performance while pitching in relief last September as a key reason for retaining him, but -- even looking beyond the fact that opponents hit .326 against him during that minuscule 12-inning sample -- this seems awfully short-sighted. Perkins doesn't miss bats, has been bad against lefties and has always been a guy who's allowed a lot of base runners. I don't get it.
Dusty Hughes
2010 Stats: 56.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 34/24 K/BB
The Twins were very impressed when they faced Hughes as a left-handed reliever for the Royals last year. It's not hard to see why; when playing against Minnesota the southpaw allowed only three runs on nine hits over 13 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he'll no longer be able to face the Twins and against all other opponents Hughes posted a 4.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 28-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 43 innings. In other words, he wasn't very good, and it was his first extended look in the majors as a 28-year-old who'd been fairly unspectacular in the minors. Dedicating two spots in a questionable bullpen to pitchers like Hughes and Perkins strikes me as an extremely bizarre decision.
Jeff Manship
2010 Stats: 29 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 21/6 K/BB
Rounding out the bullpen at the onset of the 2010 season will be Manship, a guy who spent some time there last season. In his big-league career, the right-hander has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, which aren't exactly the kind of numbers that inspire late-inning confidence. Manship has been quite hittable ever since reaching reaching the highest levels (he's allowed 260 hits over 209 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors) and unless that changes he won't be particularly useful. It will be interesting to see how Gardenhire elects to utilize him.
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
Joe Nathan and History
Joe Nathan is saying all the right things as he attempts to come back from Tommy John surgery.
Upon learning last spring that he'd be spending the next year rehabbing from one of baseball's most serious medical procedures, Nathan pledged to return at full strength in 2011. Every step of the way, he has remained positive, hopeful and determined in his demeanor. He's backed up his words, too. The right-hander hasn't reported any setbacks in his recovery, and was so confident while throwing a bullpen session at Target Field last Friday that he asked his manager to step into the batter's box for a few pitches.
During an interview with ESPN 1500 later in the weekend, Nathan reiterated that his goal is to be the team's closer this year. There's nothing surprising about that, and -- like Twins fans everywhere -- I'm pulling for him.
My interest was piqued by a comment Nathan made in the same interview, when discussing his future outlook: "Before (the surgery) I didn't know how many more years there were. But now that I've had this I feel like this is something that could let me go for another five, six, seven more years."
Now, that's obviously a very optimistic estimation for the 36-year-old reliever. Coming back from Tommy John surgery at this age is one thing, but coming back and pitching effectively for another five, six or seven years?
It's hard to imagine. But if there's one guy who could pull it off, it's Nathan. He's a fiery competitor with a tremendous work ethic, and he'd avoided injury almost completely over his first six years as Twins' closer.
So, for the sake of today's column, let's say Nathan manages to make good and close for another six years, pitching effectively through the age of 41 like fellow closer and recent retiree Trevor Hoffman was able to. Not only would this be an impressive personal feat and one of the great Tommy John success stories of all time, it would also place Nathan among the top statistical closers in baseball history, with a case for the Hall of Fame.
Let's say Nathan averaged 35 saves per season over the next six years. (In his first six years as Twins' closer, he averaged 41.) That would give him 457 career saves and place him fourth on the all-time list, behind only Hoffman, Mariano Rivera and Lee Smith.
It's difficult to guess how Hall of Fame voters will view closers in a decade, when Nathan would become eligible, but big save totals have certainly aided some cases (Hoffman and Rivera are widely considered locks and Smith has received as much as 45 percent of the vote despite being far less dominant than Nathan by other measures).
It's odd to think of Nathan as a Hall of Fame pitcher, because while he's clearly been one of the game's best closers, it doesn't seem like his service in the role has spanned enough time for him to be considered one of the all-time greats. And it hasn't. He's only closed for six years and he's 36, which is why his suggestion that he'd like to do it for another six or seven seems extreme.
The man likes to dream big and set his sights high. I respect that. But for now, he can aim for a more immediately attainable goal: the Twins' all-time save record, held by Rick Aguilera. Nathan is only nine short, and if all goes well he'll own it by the All-Star break.
Then, he can shift his gaze to 450 and the Hall of Fame. Knowing what we know about Nathan, I'd expect nothing less.
Upon learning last spring that he'd be spending the next year rehabbing from one of baseball's most serious medical procedures, Nathan pledged to return at full strength in 2011. Every step of the way, he has remained positive, hopeful and determined in his demeanor. He's backed up his words, too. The right-hander hasn't reported any setbacks in his recovery, and was so confident while throwing a bullpen session at Target Field last Friday that he asked his manager to step into the batter's box for a few pitches.
During an interview with ESPN 1500 later in the weekend, Nathan reiterated that his goal is to be the team's closer this year. There's nothing surprising about that, and -- like Twins fans everywhere -- I'm pulling for him.
My interest was piqued by a comment Nathan made in the same interview, when discussing his future outlook: "Before (the surgery) I didn't know how many more years there were. But now that I've had this I feel like this is something that could let me go for another five, six, seven more years."
Now, that's obviously a very optimistic estimation for the 36-year-old reliever. Coming back from Tommy John surgery at this age is one thing, but coming back and pitching effectively for another five, six or seven years?
It's hard to imagine. But if there's one guy who could pull it off, it's Nathan. He's a fiery competitor with a tremendous work ethic, and he'd avoided injury almost completely over his first six years as Twins' closer.
So, for the sake of today's column, let's say Nathan manages to make good and close for another six years, pitching effectively through the age of 41 like fellow closer and recent retiree Trevor Hoffman was able to. Not only would this be an impressive personal feat and one of the great Tommy John success stories of all time, it would also place Nathan among the top statistical closers in baseball history, with a case for the Hall of Fame.
Let's say Nathan averaged 35 saves per season over the next six years. (In his first six years as Twins' closer, he averaged 41.) That would give him 457 career saves and place him fourth on the all-time list, behind only Hoffman, Mariano Rivera and Lee Smith.
It's difficult to guess how Hall of Fame voters will view closers in a decade, when Nathan would become eligible, but big save totals have certainly aided some cases (Hoffman and Rivera are widely considered locks and Smith has received as much as 45 percent of the vote despite being far less dominant than Nathan by other measures).
It's odd to think of Nathan as a Hall of Fame pitcher, because while he's clearly been one of the game's best closers, it doesn't seem like his service in the role has spanned enough time for him to be considered one of the all-time greats. And it hasn't. He's only closed for six years and he's 36, which is why his suggestion that he'd like to do it for another six or seven seems extreme.
The man likes to dream big and set his sights high. I respect that. But for now, he can aim for a more immediately attainable goal: the Twins' all-time save record, held by Rick Aguilera. Nathan is only nine short, and if all goes well he'll own it by the All-Star break.
Then, he can shift his gaze to 450 and the Hall of Fame. Knowing what we know about Nathan, I'd expect nothing less.
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Bullpen Dreams
One of the most annoying parts of the offseason is that we, as fans, are often given so little to work with that we are forced to dissect and interpret quotes that -- in their original context -- might bear very little meaning.
When asked about the state of the Twins' bullpen yesterday, Bill Smith gave a rather unsettling answer:
I don't mean to draw any unflattering Tim Brewster comparisons, but in the above quote Smith sounds like a used car salesman. Who does he think he's fooling? Pat Neshek and Glen Perkins spent most of 2010 in Triple-A because they were both completely ineffective and neither has proven to be fully recovered from their latest injuries. A "competitive" Joe Nathan is not exactly the jolt needed for a bullpen containing nothing but question marks past Matt Capps and Jose Mijares. The unit, as it currently stands, is exceedingly thin even if Nathan returns at full strength. And as Neshek's 2010 campaign proved, that first year back from Tommy John surgery can bring its share of tribulations.
There's no Danny Valencia caliber player ready to step into the Twins' bullpen and make us all forget about Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier. It's possible that Anthony Slama -- a strikeout machine with questionable control -- could make a positive impact, but the organization has never seemed all that high on him and it's telling that Smith would rather mention Perkins, who has compiled a 5.71 ERA between the majors and minors over the past two seasons. Beyond Slama, the Twins have zero relief prospects in the organization with the kind of numbers that would indicate they're ready to step in and handle late-inning duties for the big-league club.
I'm sure Smith must realize the gravity of the team's bullpen situation, so most likely I'm just over-analyzing a harmless early December quote. Still, for the sake of my blood pressure Bill, please refrain from making similar comments in the future.
When asked about the state of the Twins' bullpen yesterday, Bill Smith gave a rather unsettling answer:
"Sometimes your best bet, rather than go out and get a third baseman, your best bet is to bring up Valencia and give him a chance," Smith said. "And we always like to do that. We love to bring players out of our system if they can help us win."My hope is that this is one of those offhand remarks that doesn't accurately reflect the mindset of the front office. Because if Smith and Co. are remotely comfortable with the bullpen pieces they currently have in place, they're out of their minds.
He added, "Perkins and Neshek and Nathan are three guys that would be great wild cards for us, because Perkins and Neshek pitched all season in Triple-A, or most of the season in Triple-A, and Nathan not at all."
"So if we can get Nathan back, competitive, to anywhere close to where he was, if we can get Neshek back to where he was several years ago -- and this would be the second year after Tommy John surgery. And Perkins threw the ball well in September, and had some stints of throwing the ball very well in Rochester."
I don't mean to draw any unflattering Tim Brewster comparisons, but in the above quote Smith sounds like a used car salesman. Who does he think he's fooling? Pat Neshek and Glen Perkins spent most of 2010 in Triple-A because they were both completely ineffective and neither has proven to be fully recovered from their latest injuries. A "competitive" Joe Nathan is not exactly the jolt needed for a bullpen containing nothing but question marks past Matt Capps and Jose Mijares. The unit, as it currently stands, is exceedingly thin even if Nathan returns at full strength. And as Neshek's 2010 campaign proved, that first year back from Tommy John surgery can bring its share of tribulations.
There's no Danny Valencia caliber player ready to step into the Twins' bullpen and make us all forget about Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier. It's possible that Anthony Slama -- a strikeout machine with questionable control -- could make a positive impact, but the organization has never seemed all that high on him and it's telling that Smith would rather mention Perkins, who has compiled a 5.71 ERA between the majors and minors over the past two seasons. Beyond Slama, the Twins have zero relief prospects in the organization with the kind of numbers that would indicate they're ready to step in and handle late-inning duties for the big-league club.
I'm sure Smith must realize the gravity of the team's bullpen situation, so most likely I'm just over-analyzing a harmless early December quote. Still, for the sake of my blood pressure Bill, please refrain from making similar comments in the future.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Cut the Capps
When the Twins traded for Matt Capps at the trade deadline, I didn't hate the move.
I didn't love it, but since the reaction to the swap among Twins fans was overwhelmingly negative, I spent a lot of time defending it. Despite his success in the first half, the Twins saw something in Jon Rauch that led them to believe he'd soon become a liability in the closer role (his subsequent slump suggested they were right), so they wanted a proven commodity. Sure, the Twins overvalued Capps' standing as an established closer and gave up a better prospect than they maybe should have, but I accepted the move for three principal reasons: 1) I don't think they could have gotten a much better player for Ramos; 2) in my mind, the probability that the team will heavily regret dealing Ramos when they did is quite low; and 3) I liked the statement that the move made.
It was that last one that I felt most strongly about. We're so used to seeing the Twins play it conservative at the deadline, protecting their future assets at the expense of bettering their present chances. Now, they were dealing one of their top prospects and taking on significant salary with the hopes of ensuring that a bullpen derailment would not impede their budding momentum. Very often has a prospect panned out to be less than we'd hoped; very often, also, have we looked back at the end of a season and said, "Maybe that one extra piece at the deadline would have made the difference."
So the Twins made their bold move. But they did so for another reason, one that they were perfectly transparent about the time, but that I didn't spend much time thinking about then.
The Twins would be insane to bring back Matt Capps.
He's under team control for 2011 because he's entering his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. He was non-tendered by the Pirates following a crummy 2009 campaign (5.80 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .324 opponents batting average, just 27 saves in 32 chances), and he earned only a modest $1.2 million raise on his $2.3 million '09 salary when the Nationals signed him this season because of it.
This year, however, Capps put up some of the finest numbers of his career, and scored big in areas that arbitrators put a lot of weight into. Specifically, those areas are ERA (2.47) and saves (42, fifth-best in MLB). While I certainly don't think he's as bad a pitcher as many opponents of his acquisition make him out to be, Capps is at best merely a good reliever and those numbers unquestionably overstate his value.
Unfortunately, that's the type of lens through which arbitration judges are likely to view Capps. The market has been established. For instance, the Giants have Brian Wilson locked up for $8.5 million in 2012, which would be his last year of arbitration, and that contract was signed before he notched an MLB-leading 48 saves this year. Jonathan Papelbon just earned over $9 million in his second year of arbitration. Looking at these numbers, it's not hard to imagine Capps at least doubling his $3.5 million salary in 2011.
Meanwhile, relievers of similar quality to Capps who don't carry the closer label tend to make only a couple million per year. And regardless of how you weigh the value of having an established guy in the closer spot, there's a good chance the Twins won't be using him in that role with Joe Nathan returning.
In the best case scenario, they'd be paying Capps upper-echelon closer money (which they're already paying Nathan, to a higher degree) to be a solid setup man. If you're going to spend that kind of money on a guy who'd fill a setup role and serve as an insurance policy for Nathan, you're much wiser using it to bring back Brian Fuentes who figures to be only slightly more expensive if at all. He's a better pitcher and more useful if Nathan can close. Or you can save a few million and take your pick from the deep pool of strong relievers hitting the market this winter.
I have spent enough energy defending Capps. He served his duty very effectively after being acquired and was a fine -- if ultimately meaningless -- addition to the Twins this season. If he's back next year at $7 million, though, his acquisition will ultimately do more harm than good.
I didn't love it, but since the reaction to the swap among Twins fans was overwhelmingly negative, I spent a lot of time defending it. Despite his success in the first half, the Twins saw something in Jon Rauch that led them to believe he'd soon become a liability in the closer role (his subsequent slump suggested they were right), so they wanted a proven commodity. Sure, the Twins overvalued Capps' standing as an established closer and gave up a better prospect than they maybe should have, but I accepted the move for three principal reasons: 1) I don't think they could have gotten a much better player for Ramos; 2) in my mind, the probability that the team will heavily regret dealing Ramos when they did is quite low; and 3) I liked the statement that the move made.
It was that last one that I felt most strongly about. We're so used to seeing the Twins play it conservative at the deadline, protecting their future assets at the expense of bettering their present chances. Now, they were dealing one of their top prospects and taking on significant salary with the hopes of ensuring that a bullpen derailment would not impede their budding momentum. Very often has a prospect panned out to be less than we'd hoped; very often, also, have we looked back at the end of a season and said, "Maybe that one extra piece at the deadline would have made the difference."
So the Twins made their bold move. But they did so for another reason, one that they were perfectly transparent about the time, but that I didn't spend much time thinking about then.
"Having him for 2011 was critical," [Bill] Smith said. "We would not have had interest in having him for just two months."As you'll find when reading through your copy of the Offseason GM Handbook, the bullpen becomes a quagmire of tricky decisions for the Twins' front office this winter. I didn't need the headache while focusing on the Twins' 2010 season, so I hadn't spent much time thinking about it. Now that I've turned my gaze to the offseason and started breaking down the numbers, I've reached one inescapable conclusion:
The Twins would be insane to bring back Matt Capps.
He's under team control for 2011 because he's entering his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. He was non-tendered by the Pirates following a crummy 2009 campaign (5.80 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .324 opponents batting average, just 27 saves in 32 chances), and he earned only a modest $1.2 million raise on his $2.3 million '09 salary when the Nationals signed him this season because of it.
This year, however, Capps put up some of the finest numbers of his career, and scored big in areas that arbitrators put a lot of weight into. Specifically, those areas are ERA (2.47) and saves (42, fifth-best in MLB). While I certainly don't think he's as bad a pitcher as many opponents of his acquisition make him out to be, Capps is at best merely a good reliever and those numbers unquestionably overstate his value.
Unfortunately, that's the type of lens through which arbitration judges are likely to view Capps. The market has been established. For instance, the Giants have Brian Wilson locked up for $8.5 million in 2012, which would be his last year of arbitration, and that contract was signed before he notched an MLB-leading 48 saves this year. Jonathan Papelbon just earned over $9 million in his second year of arbitration. Looking at these numbers, it's not hard to imagine Capps at least doubling his $3.5 million salary in 2011.
Meanwhile, relievers of similar quality to Capps who don't carry the closer label tend to make only a couple million per year. And regardless of how you weigh the value of having an established guy in the closer spot, there's a good chance the Twins won't be using him in that role with Joe Nathan returning.
In the best case scenario, they'd be paying Capps upper-echelon closer money (which they're already paying Nathan, to a higher degree) to be a solid setup man. If you're going to spend that kind of money on a guy who'd fill a setup role and serve as an insurance policy for Nathan, you're much wiser using it to bring back Brian Fuentes who figures to be only slightly more expensive if at all. He's a better pitcher and more useful if Nathan can close. Or you can save a few million and take your pick from the deep pool of strong relievers hitting the market this winter.
I have spent enough energy defending Capps. He served his duty very effectively after being acquired and was a fine -- if ultimately meaningless -- addition to the Twins this season. If he's back next year at $7 million, though, his acquisition will ultimately do more harm than good.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
A Lost Link
There haven't been many constants for the Twins over the past six years. A look back at the 2004 roster seems like a study in ancient history. Doug Mientkiewicz, Luis Rivas, Cristian Guzman and Corey Koskie manned the infield. Michael Cuddyer had not yet established himself as a regular. Joe Mauer entered the season without a major-league at-bat to his credit. Johan Santana was just finally becoming a full-time member of the rotation.
Yes, it was a different era in Twins baseball. But it was also the year Joe Nathan, who'd been acquired from the Giants during the previous offseason, took over as the team's closer. And in the six years since, he has been one of the most consistent forces in baseball, annually posting elite numbers from the closer position while remaining remarkably healthy and durable.
Between 2004 and 2009, Nathan never appeared in fewer than 64 games and never pitched fewer than 67 2/3 innings. He never posted an ERA higher than 2.70, and never posted a WHIP higher than 1.01. He's had his blips from time to time, but for the most part Nathan has been a model of consistency.
In those six years, he racked up a whopping 246 saves, the highest total of any closer in baseball during that span. That figure places him just eight short of the Twins' all-time saves leader, Rick Aguilera, so Nathan seemed certain to claim his place in the franchise history this year.
Now, that won't happen this season. And it might not happen at all.
After experiencing pain in his elbow during his first spring training appearance last week, Nathan flew back to Minnesota, where imaging scans revealed a "significant tear" in his ulnar collateral ligament. While he and the team have suggested that the closer will wait a couple weeks for the swelling to go down before making a decision on his future, there is almost no chance that Nathan will avoid Tommy John surgery. At the age of 35, bouncing back from this serious procedure will be difficult for Nathan. Not only is his 2010 season likely done, his future as a major-leaguer could be in grave doubt. That's pretty heartbreaking, not only because the Twins owe him $24.5 million in guaranteed money on his current contact, but also because he is truly one of the good guys in baseball and one of the last remaining links to that previous era in Twins history.
For now, though, the Twins can't afford to look at the big picture and sulk. They'll need to determine who will pick up the slack this year in the absence of Nathan, who has converted 91 percent of his save opportunities since taking over closing duties in '04. While a closer-by-committee approach based on match-ups and who's available may be the most desirable solution, La Velle suggests that the Twins are unlikely to follow this path and my guess is that he's right. Ron Gardenhire will likely try to settle on an individual replacement for Nathan who can regularly be called upon in most instances to close out the ninth inning when the Twins lead by three or fewer runs.
Nathan has been one of baseball's elite closers over the past several years and no one the Twins can call upon internally will come close to filling the void he leaves in the bullpen. Yet, in a sense, the timing of this injury is as good as it possibly could be. The Twins enter this season with more relief depth than they've had in past years, and the injury comes early enough in spring training that they'll have plenty of time to weigh their options and formulate a plan before the season starts. There are a number of guys who could be called upon to overtake the closer reigns for the 2010 season, so I'll break down the candidates in order of likelihood of winning the job:
1. Jon Rauch
Rauch possesses many of the traits Gardenhire is likely to look for in a replacement closer. For one thing, he's a veteran, with 356 major-league appearances spanning seven seasons. He also has closing experience, having filled that role with the Nationals for a period of time during the 2008 campaign. After joining the Twins last year, he posted closer-type numbers, posting a 1.72 ERA while striking out 14 batters over 15 innings. Yet, that small sample hides the fact that Rauch's strikeout rate dropped overall last year (he fanned just 35 batters in 54 1/3 innings in Arizona prior to being traded) and that he has a tendency to get hit hard, having allowed a .425 slugging percentage while coughing up 17 homers over the past two years. Tall, tattooed and mean-looking, Rauch has the imposing look of a closer and seems the favorite to get save opportunities early in the year. There's no guarantee he'll stick in that role, though.
2. Jesse Crain
Those who recall watching Crain pitch over the first half of last season -- when his performance got so bad that he was demoted to the minors -- might be a bit baffled to see him rank second on this list. But after being recalled in July, Crain posted a 2.91 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a measly .217 batting average and .292 slugging percentage. While he's not a strikeout artist, he has proven capable of missing bats (7.3 K/9 over the past two seasons) and he had plenty of closing experience in the minors, where he was groomed to become a late-inning dominator. If Crain can pick up where he left off last season, he'll be the best candidate to fill in for Nathan. Of course, given his inconsistency since returning from shoulder surgery, that's no given.
3. Pat Neshek
When he first broke into the league, Neshek was about as dominant as Nathan. In 2006, the quirky right-hander posted a 2.19 ERA and 53-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 37 innings. He carried that success forward into his first full season with the Twins, dominating as eighth-inning setup man during the first half of the '07 campaign, but he wore down late in the year and the next spring he felt his UCL go pop, requiring Tommy John surgery (sound familiar?). Neshek hasn't pitched in a big-league game since early 2008 and we all know how difficult the initial return from TJ surgery can be (paging Francisco Liriano), so he seems like a longshot to even make the Opening Day roster this spring. Still, he's looked sharp in exhibition play and it would be no surprise to see him get a shot at closing out games somewhere along the line.
4. Matt Guerrier
Guerrier was Mr. Eighth Inning last year and he handled the job well, posting a 2.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while effectively bridging the gap to Nathan on a regular basis. This would suggest that he ought to be first in line to step in for the fallen closer. Yet, Guerrier seems perfectly suited for the role he has been in for the past couple years. His durable arm has racked up more appearances over the past three years than any other big-league pitcher, and as a guy who used to start and work in long relief he's capable of tossing multiple innings. Certainly, Guerrier has the resume to suggest he could be effective in a ninth-inning role, but I think the Twins would be doing themselves a disservice by removing him from his current spot. I suspect Gardenhire would feel the same way.
5. Francisco Liriano
Given that he has some of the filthiest stuff of anyone on the staff, Liriano has frequently been brought up as a candidate to move to the bullpen, where he ostensibly could unleash the full power of his arsenal in shorter stints. Indeed, Liriano's mid-90s fastball and dirty slider could make him a natural fit in the closer spot, but if he has truly regained his confidence and command he's too much of an asset in the rotation to be removed. If Liriano experiences problems similar to the ones that plagued him last year and is wearing down by the fifth inning in his starts, we could see the Twins give him a shot to close out games. But I'm hoping that won't happen.
6. Jose Mijares
In 72 big-league innings, Mijares has registered a 2.12 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .206 batting average -- very nice numbers. However, Gardenhire requires a situational left-handed specialist and Mijares fits that role perfectly with his tremendous numbers against lefties (not to mention his mediocre numbers against righties). He could get some chances to pitch the ninth when opposing lineups are sending a couple left-handed hitters to the plate, but outside of that I'd be extremely surprised to see him notch many saves this season.
After Nathan's struggles in the playoffs last year, I was frustrated by fans who focused on his late-season issues while overlooking how amazingly well he'd pitched over the first five months of the season, not to mention his previous five years in a Twins uniform. Now, with Nathan gone, those same fans will come to realize what they'd been taking for granted in their rants. For the vast majority of his career in Minnesota, Nathan has been close to automatic in the ninth inning. And while I'm confident the pitchers above can do an adequate job of replacing his contributions, none of them will be able to fully fill his shoes. Panicky fans who are suggesting that Nathan's loss suddenly makes the Twins a far worse team are grossly exaggerating the effect of a dominant closer on the win/loss column, but there Nathan's absence will be noticeable.
Sometimes you don't miss a good thing until it's gone.
Yes, it was a different era in Twins baseball. But it was also the year Joe Nathan, who'd been acquired from the Giants during the previous offseason, took over as the team's closer. And in the six years since, he has been one of the most consistent forces in baseball, annually posting elite numbers from the closer position while remaining remarkably healthy and durable.
Between 2004 and 2009, Nathan never appeared in fewer than 64 games and never pitched fewer than 67 2/3 innings. He never posted an ERA higher than 2.70, and never posted a WHIP higher than 1.01. He's had his blips from time to time, but for the most part Nathan has been a model of consistency.
In those six years, he racked up a whopping 246 saves, the highest total of any closer in baseball during that span. That figure places him just eight short of the Twins' all-time saves leader, Rick Aguilera, so Nathan seemed certain to claim his place in the franchise history this year.
Now, that won't happen this season. And it might not happen at all.
After experiencing pain in his elbow during his first spring training appearance last week, Nathan flew back to Minnesota, where imaging scans revealed a "significant tear" in his ulnar collateral ligament. While he and the team have suggested that the closer will wait a couple weeks for the swelling to go down before making a decision on his future, there is almost no chance that Nathan will avoid Tommy John surgery. At the age of 35, bouncing back from this serious procedure will be difficult for Nathan. Not only is his 2010 season likely done, his future as a major-leaguer could be in grave doubt. That's pretty heartbreaking, not only because the Twins owe him $24.5 million in guaranteed money on his current contact, but also because he is truly one of the good guys in baseball and one of the last remaining links to that previous era in Twins history.
For now, though, the Twins can't afford to look at the big picture and sulk. They'll need to determine who will pick up the slack this year in the absence of Nathan, who has converted 91 percent of his save opportunities since taking over closing duties in '04. While a closer-by-committee approach based on match-ups and who's available may be the most desirable solution, La Velle suggests that the Twins are unlikely to follow this path and my guess is that he's right. Ron Gardenhire will likely try to settle on an individual replacement for Nathan who can regularly be called upon in most instances to close out the ninth inning when the Twins lead by three or fewer runs.
Nathan has been one of baseball's elite closers over the past several years and no one the Twins can call upon internally will come close to filling the void he leaves in the bullpen. Yet, in a sense, the timing of this injury is as good as it possibly could be. The Twins enter this season with more relief depth than they've had in past years, and the injury comes early enough in spring training that they'll have plenty of time to weigh their options and formulate a plan before the season starts. There are a number of guys who could be called upon to overtake the closer reigns for the 2010 season, so I'll break down the candidates in order of likelihood of winning the job:
1. Jon Rauch
Rauch possesses many of the traits Gardenhire is likely to look for in a replacement closer. For one thing, he's a veteran, with 356 major-league appearances spanning seven seasons. He also has closing experience, having filled that role with the Nationals for a period of time during the 2008 campaign. After joining the Twins last year, he posted closer-type numbers, posting a 1.72 ERA while striking out 14 batters over 15 innings. Yet, that small sample hides the fact that Rauch's strikeout rate dropped overall last year (he fanned just 35 batters in 54 1/3 innings in Arizona prior to being traded) and that he has a tendency to get hit hard, having allowed a .425 slugging percentage while coughing up 17 homers over the past two years. Tall, tattooed and mean-looking, Rauch has the imposing look of a closer and seems the favorite to get save opportunities early in the year. There's no guarantee he'll stick in that role, though.
2. Jesse Crain
Those who recall watching Crain pitch over the first half of last season -- when his performance got so bad that he was demoted to the minors -- might be a bit baffled to see him rank second on this list. But after being recalled in July, Crain posted a 2.91 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a measly .217 batting average and .292 slugging percentage. While he's not a strikeout artist, he has proven capable of missing bats (7.3 K/9 over the past two seasons) and he had plenty of closing experience in the minors, where he was groomed to become a late-inning dominator. If Crain can pick up where he left off last season, he'll be the best candidate to fill in for Nathan. Of course, given his inconsistency since returning from shoulder surgery, that's no given.
3. Pat Neshek
When he first broke into the league, Neshek was about as dominant as Nathan. In 2006, the quirky right-hander posted a 2.19 ERA and 53-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 37 innings. He carried that success forward into his first full season with the Twins, dominating as eighth-inning setup man during the first half of the '07 campaign, but he wore down late in the year and the next spring he felt his UCL go pop, requiring Tommy John surgery (sound familiar?). Neshek hasn't pitched in a big-league game since early 2008 and we all know how difficult the initial return from TJ surgery can be (paging Francisco Liriano), so he seems like a longshot to even make the Opening Day roster this spring. Still, he's looked sharp in exhibition play and it would be no surprise to see him get a shot at closing out games somewhere along the line.
4. Matt Guerrier
Guerrier was Mr. Eighth Inning last year and he handled the job well, posting a 2.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while effectively bridging the gap to Nathan on a regular basis. This would suggest that he ought to be first in line to step in for the fallen closer. Yet, Guerrier seems perfectly suited for the role he has been in for the past couple years. His durable arm has racked up more appearances over the past three years than any other big-league pitcher, and as a guy who used to start and work in long relief he's capable of tossing multiple innings. Certainly, Guerrier has the resume to suggest he could be effective in a ninth-inning role, but I think the Twins would be doing themselves a disservice by removing him from his current spot. I suspect Gardenhire would feel the same way.
5. Francisco Liriano
Given that he has some of the filthiest stuff of anyone on the staff, Liriano has frequently been brought up as a candidate to move to the bullpen, where he ostensibly could unleash the full power of his arsenal in shorter stints. Indeed, Liriano's mid-90s fastball and dirty slider could make him a natural fit in the closer spot, but if he has truly regained his confidence and command he's too much of an asset in the rotation to be removed. If Liriano experiences problems similar to the ones that plagued him last year and is wearing down by the fifth inning in his starts, we could see the Twins give him a shot to close out games. But I'm hoping that won't happen.
6. Jose Mijares
In 72 big-league innings, Mijares has registered a 2.12 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .206 batting average -- very nice numbers. However, Gardenhire requires a situational left-handed specialist and Mijares fits that role perfectly with his tremendous numbers against lefties (not to mention his mediocre numbers against righties). He could get some chances to pitch the ninth when opposing lineups are sending a couple left-handed hitters to the plate, but outside of that I'd be extremely surprised to see him notch many saves this season.
After Nathan's struggles in the playoffs last year, I was frustrated by fans who focused on his late-season issues while overlooking how amazingly well he'd pitched over the first five months of the season, not to mention his previous five years in a Twins uniform. Now, with Nathan gone, those same fans will come to realize what they'd been taking for granted in their rants. For the vast majority of his career in Minnesota, Nathan has been close to automatic in the ninth inning. And while I'm confident the pitchers above can do an adequate job of replacing his contributions, none of them will be able to fully fill his shoes. Panicky fans who are suggesting that Nathan's loss suddenly makes the Twins a far worse team are grossly exaggerating the effect of a dominant closer on the win/loss column, but there Nathan's absence will be noticeable.
Sometimes you don't miss a good thing until it's gone.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Cuddyer vs. Nathan: Who's Expendable?
The Twins' increased budget in the upcoming 2010 season has been a popular topic of conversation in many circles, and this blog has been no exception. But, as reports leak out that appealing free agents such as Orlando Hudson are seeking multi-year deals, it is pertinent to look ahead at how the team's payroll will shape up in 2011.
Travis Aune of the blog Travis Talks had a nice post earlier in the week examining this very subject. Travis lists out projected salary commitments for the 2011 season, and while he had to employ some guesswork (Joe Mauer's salary, various arbitration figures), his estimates seem reasonable. Even accounting for the subtracted salaries of Nick Punto, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Carl Pavano, who will be free agents, Travis arrives at an estimated total of $91 in commitments to 18 players. Depending on how high you believe the club's overall payroll will go next year (and Travis' estimate of $100 million seems fair), this doesn't leave a whole lot of money to fill the remaining spots on the 25-man roster.
This is most likely the reason the Twins have shied away from aggressively pursuing players like Hudson and Adrian Beltre, who clearly fit a need but are hesitant to settle for a one-year deal. The fact that the Twins were apparently willing to offer $5 million to Jarrod Washburn for this year suggests that Bill Smith is still willing to spend a bit more on the 2010 roster but is wary of the increase in commitments the following year.
If the Twins want to have a bit of financial flexibility to address holes in 2011 with something other than cheap rookies, they may need to dump salary in order to clear out some space. And as we look at the team's current contracts, there are two very obvious candidates for such a move: Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan, who will both be in the final guaranteed year of their lucrative contracts.
Cuddyer, whose '11 option was activated just after the conclusion of this past season, is scheduled to make $10.5M next year. And Nathan, who will be entering the final guaranteed year in his deal (though his does possess a $12.5M club option for 2012 with a $2 million buyout), will make $11.25M. Clearing either of those commitments from the books would create a significant amount of space to address other areas.
So now we have to ask ourselves: if it came down to it, which guy would we rather see go? I like both Cuddyer and Nathan and would prefer to have them both on the team, but if we're being realistic about finances there's no question that dealing one of them would be a logical move, particularly if they perform well this year and maintain solid trade value.
There are a number of considerations to weigh as we contemplate this decision. Which player is more valuable to the team, both on the field and off it? Which can be more easily replaced? Which will bring back more in a trade?
There really aren't any easy answers to these questions and opinions are sure to differ. As far as value, the Win Probability Added (WPA) metric suggests that Nathan has been worth an average of about 3.6 wins per season to the Twins over the past three years, whereas Cuddyer rings in at an average of 0.48 wins per season -- which was his exact figure last year. I'll note that I think WPA tends to exaggerate the value of closers, but that's a substantial gap nevertheless. Meanwhile, Wins Above Replacement pegs Nathan as having been worth 6.2 total wins over the last three years; Cuddyer 4.3. It's also worth noting that Nathan has shown a far greater ability to stay healthy.
It's difficult to quantify Cuddyer's value to the lineup overall as a threatening right-handed power hitter who can slot between Mauer and Justin Morneau, but at the same time it's difficult to quantify Nathan's value as a steady and dominant high-leverage reliever in a bullpen that has experienced its fair share of turnover and turmoil over the years.
Who's more replaceable? That question is even tougher than the last. The Twins have shown great aptitude with taking quality relievers and turning them into all-star closers over the years -- with Nathan and Eddie Guardado serving as prime examples -- but no one currently on the team looks like anything close to a slam-drunk replacement. Meanwhile, it isn't easy to find prime-aged right-handed hitters who can belt 30 homers on the cheap, although -- despite my pal Twins Geek's allusions to the contrary -- players of Cuddyer's ilk (weak defensive corner outfielders who can hit for power) are generally available at a reasonable cost. Marlon Byrd and Jack Cust are but two examples who have signed on the cheap already this offseason.
As far as trade value is concerned, that's really too sticky a topic for me to even dive into right now. Considering their price tags, only contending teams are likely to show interest in players like Nathan and Cuddyer, so the value of these two players on the trade market will likely be dictated by how many contending teams have needs at the positions they play. And again, much depends on how both players perform this year.
Cuddyer and Nathan were both key contributors to the Twins' past two AL Central title runs and are both well-liked core players. Yet, letting one of the two go after this season (or perhaps even during it, depending on the circumstances) is is an option that should at least be sitting in the back of our minds. Because even with the payroll boost that has come along with the new stadium, the Twins are headed for a tight budget in 2011 and could be in trouble if more holes emerge than the ones they've currently got.
Travis Aune of the blog Travis Talks had a nice post earlier in the week examining this very subject. Travis lists out projected salary commitments for the 2011 season, and while he had to employ some guesswork (Joe Mauer's salary, various arbitration figures), his estimates seem reasonable. Even accounting for the subtracted salaries of Nick Punto, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Carl Pavano, who will be free agents, Travis arrives at an estimated total of $91 in commitments to 18 players. Depending on how high you believe the club's overall payroll will go next year (and Travis' estimate of $100 million seems fair), this doesn't leave a whole lot of money to fill the remaining spots on the 25-man roster.
This is most likely the reason the Twins have shied away from aggressively pursuing players like Hudson and Adrian Beltre, who clearly fit a need but are hesitant to settle for a one-year deal. The fact that the Twins were apparently willing to offer $5 million to Jarrod Washburn for this year suggests that Bill Smith is still willing to spend a bit more on the 2010 roster but is wary of the increase in commitments the following year.
If the Twins want to have a bit of financial flexibility to address holes in 2011 with something other than cheap rookies, they may need to dump salary in order to clear out some space. And as we look at the team's current contracts, there are two very obvious candidates for such a move: Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan, who will both be in the final guaranteed year of their lucrative contracts.
Cuddyer, whose '11 option was activated just after the conclusion of this past season, is scheduled to make $10.5M next year. And Nathan, who will be entering the final guaranteed year in his deal (though his does possess a $12.5M club option for 2012 with a $2 million buyout), will make $11.25M. Clearing either of those commitments from the books would create a significant amount of space to address other areas.
So now we have to ask ourselves: if it came down to it, which guy would we rather see go? I like both Cuddyer and Nathan and would prefer to have them both on the team, but if we're being realistic about finances there's no question that dealing one of them would be a logical move, particularly if they perform well this year and maintain solid trade value.
There are a number of considerations to weigh as we contemplate this decision. Which player is more valuable to the team, both on the field and off it? Which can be more easily replaced? Which will bring back more in a trade?
There really aren't any easy answers to these questions and opinions are sure to differ. As far as value, the Win Probability Added (WPA) metric suggests that Nathan has been worth an average of about 3.6 wins per season to the Twins over the past three years, whereas Cuddyer rings in at an average of 0.48 wins per season -- which was his exact figure last year. I'll note that I think WPA tends to exaggerate the value of closers, but that's a substantial gap nevertheless. Meanwhile, Wins Above Replacement pegs Nathan as having been worth 6.2 total wins over the last three years; Cuddyer 4.3. It's also worth noting that Nathan has shown a far greater ability to stay healthy.
It's difficult to quantify Cuddyer's value to the lineup overall as a threatening right-handed power hitter who can slot between Mauer and Justin Morneau, but at the same time it's difficult to quantify Nathan's value as a steady and dominant high-leverage reliever in a bullpen that has experienced its fair share of turnover and turmoil over the years.
Who's more replaceable? That question is even tougher than the last. The Twins have shown great aptitude with taking quality relievers and turning them into all-star closers over the years -- with Nathan and Eddie Guardado serving as prime examples -- but no one currently on the team looks like anything close to a slam-drunk replacement. Meanwhile, it isn't easy to find prime-aged right-handed hitters who can belt 30 homers on the cheap, although -- despite my pal Twins Geek's allusions to the contrary -- players of Cuddyer's ilk (weak defensive corner outfielders who can hit for power) are generally available at a reasonable cost. Marlon Byrd and Jack Cust are but two examples who have signed on the cheap already this offseason.
As far as trade value is concerned, that's really too sticky a topic for me to even dive into right now. Considering their price tags, only contending teams are likely to show interest in players like Nathan and Cuddyer, so the value of these two players on the trade market will likely be dictated by how many contending teams have needs at the positions they play. And again, much depends on how both players perform this year.
Cuddyer and Nathan were both key contributors to the Twins' past two AL Central title runs and are both well-liked core players. Yet, letting one of the two go after this season (or perhaps even during it, depending on the circumstances) is is an option that should at least be sitting in the back of our minds. Because even with the payroll boost that has come along with the new stadium, the Twins are headed for a tight budget in 2011 and could be in trouble if more holes emerge than the ones they've currently got.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Overreactions
Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse had an article in yesterday's paper laying out his offseason plan for the recently eliminated Twins. The first two steps on his list (both plastered on the title of the column): Trading Joe Nathan, demoting Carlos Gomez.
My problem with Reusse's suggestions isn't so much that they are unreasonable; one can make an argument that this is the right time to move Nathan and it's certainly fair to say that Gomez needs some more time in Triple-A. My problem is that I fully believe Reusse -- like many other Twins fans -- is basing his current convictions on the small sample size provided by the past week's playoff series against the Yankees. Had Gomez batted .400 and made a game-saving catch during the series, or had Nathan pitched lights-out in his two appearances, I sincerely doubt we'd be seeing the columnist clamoring for their dismissal from Minnesota. That's not a good way to make personnel decisions.
Many people are frustrated with the handful of players who are perceived to be heavily responsible to the Twins' defeat. In particular, I've seen plenty of folks directing vitriol at Nathan, and the "Trade Nathan" bandwagon seems to be gaining steam on numerous fronts. But it's important to keep in mind how heavily the deck was stacked against the Twins and many of their players in this series. Yes, Nathan blew an opportunity for the Twins to even the series on Friday night by blowing a two-run lead in the bottom of the ninth. But it's not like he gave up a walk-off grand slam to David Eckstein. Nathan was facing the heart of baseball's best lineup in a hostile stadium. He walked one of the league's elite offensive players -- a likely top three MVP finisher -- and then gave up a home run to one of the most accomplished hitters in baseball history. It was tough, but it happens, and Nathan was hardly the only closer to struggle in the first round of this postseason.
It sort of astonishes me that this unfortunate turn of events has so quickly caused fans to sour on a guy who turned in a 2.10 ERA and 11.7 K/9 rate while notching 47 saves this season. Are people really forgetting that there was a stretch this year where Nathan went 24 straight appearances without allowing a run? That he was the steady rock for much of the year in an often erratic bullpen? He seemed to wear down at the end of the year, yes, but Nathan can still pitch and his contributions this season were absolutely elemental to the team's success. He remains one of the game's very best closers in spite of some rough patches against an offensive juggernaut in New York.
Laughably, Reusse's candidates for replacing Nathan are Jose Mijares -- who was playing over his head for much of the year and who looked worse than almost any Twins reliever over the final week -- and Pat Neshek -- who hasn't thrown a pitch since early 2008. If Twins fans are annoyed now by having a mostly dominant closer who gives up a couple runs every now and then, I hate to think how they'd react to the number of ninth-inning leads that would slip away under that inferior pairing. It's almost like we've become spoiled around these parts; Nathan has been so good for much of the year that any team he gives up a lead it gets blown wildly out of proportion. An outside observer would have no trouble noticing that Nathan was one of the very best in the league this year at converting slim ninth-inning leads into victories, just like he has been in past years. It is unfortunate that a couple of his rare misfires had to come at such inopportune times, but no pitcher is perfect.
The Twins have performed terribly in the postseason ever since 2003. This understandably causes fans to grow exceptionally frustrated when they are forced to suffer through another quick first-round exit. But understand that while Nathan did blow that Game 2 save and subsequently allow a couple crucial insurance runs across in Game 3, he was facing a powerhouse offense that any pitcher is liable to get nailed by. Understand that while Gomez struggled at the plate and made a costly baserunning error, he was just a kid who'd barely played over the past month, in over his head on the biggest of stages and in the harshest of environments. Understand that while Jason Kubel looked completely overwhelmed at the plate in this series, he drew unfavorable starts against two tough left-handed pitchers along with one of the league's best right-handed strikeout pitchers. That while Nick Punto committed a rather inexcusable error on the basepaths, he had been a key contributor over the rest of the series.
There's a tendency to dwell on the negatives at a time like this, but the Twins did hold their own in that series, largely thanks to some stellar contributions from Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, Joe Mauer, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer. The challenges those players faced should only be magnified by the struggles experienced by some of their teammates, and those strong performances should not be forgotten.
The time will come during this offseason to make many important decisions about the future of this ballclub. But don't let the disappointing outcome of a three-game series shade your viewpoint on these decisions too much.
Thursday, September 03, 2009
Ugh
I was going to write up a nice, long, thoughtful post for today, but the conclusion of yesterday's game sapped me of all motivation. What a painful loss. The Twins battled their way to a 2-0 lead with two outs in the ninth inning only to watch Joe Nathan implode, delivering the worst performance in his six-year career as Twins closer at an extremely inopportune time. Throwing away such a brilliant outing from Brian Duensing (7 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K) makes the loss all the more difficult to swallow, because one really has to wonder how many more outings like that the Twins are going to get from him this season.
There's reason to worry about Nathan, who simply hasn't looked like himself in recent outings -- if he is going to be a liability for the final month of the season, the Twins won't have much of a chance. Of course, rebounding from such a heartbreaking loss will be enough of a challenge in and of itself.
There's reason to worry about Nathan, who simply hasn't looked like himself in recent outings -- if he is going to be a liability for the final month of the season, the Twins won't have much of a chance. Of course, rebounding from such a heartbreaking loss will be enough of a challenge in and of itself.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Checking In On Joe Nathan
Joe Nathan was selected to the AL All-Star team this year for the fourth time in six seasons since coming over to the Minnesota Twins. While it has gone unnoticed by many, Nathan is actually having a dazzling season and he's been especially effective as of late.
In 35 appearances this year, Nathan has notched 22 saves while posting a 1.35 ERA and 43-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 33 1/3 innings. He has posted a ridiculous 0.75 WHIP, which would stand as the best figure of his career, and is holding opposing hitters to a .157 batting average.
In his past 19 appearances, Nathan has pitched 18 2/3 innings and allowed zero runs, seven hits and two walks. He's struck out 28 during that span, and gone a perfect 16-for-16 in save opportunities. That's really about as close to perfect as a relief pitcher can possibly be.
Particularly encouraging are Nathan's strikeout numbers this year. Take a look at this K-rate trends since his first year as Twins closer:
Year (Age): K/9 IP
2004 (29): 11.1
2005 (30): 12.1
2006 (31): 12.5
2007 (32): 9.7
2008 (33): 9.8
2009 (34): 11.6
The dip in strikeout rate over the past couple years seemed to indicate that Nathan was losing a bit of his stuff as he moved into his 30s. That's hardly abnormal and far from disastrous, but still a bit troubling as far as his future outlook is concerned. This year, Nathan has ramped his strikeout rate back up to an elite level and as a result hitters are struggling to reach base against him more than ever.
When the Twins handed Nathan a four-year contract extension prior to last season, many fans grumbled, reasoning that his annual average of $11.75 million was too much money to give a reliever likely to throw more than 70 innings per year. I was always very supportive of the move. Nathan's value as a stable rock at the back end of the Twins' fluctuating and sometimes maddeningly inconsistent bullpen is tough to quantify. But I'll try anyway...
In spite of its ineffectiveness at times this season, the Twins bullpen still ranks fourth in the AL with a 3.76 ERA. If you remove Nathan's contributions, Twins' relievers have combined for a 4.16 ERA -- that'd rank 10th in the league. With the exception of Matt Guerrier (who has also had a sneaky great season), no Twins reliever other than Nathan has a WHIP lower than 1.32.
Nathan currently stands 33 saves short of Rick Aguilera, the Twins' all-time leader in that category. He almost certainly won't get there this year, but barring injury, by the time he finishes his current contract he will almost undoubtedly be reputed as the greatest Twins closer of all time (if he's not already).
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher
Today I’ll wrap up the Position Analysis series by breaking down perhaps the most concerning unit on the Twins. In 2008, the bullpen was a glaring weakness for this club, particularly late in the season when many meaningful ballgames were lost in the late innings. During the offseason, Bill Smith did little to actively upgrade the relief corps, and it seems that the Twins will mostly be relying on internal improvement. They’ll need a lot of that, since they’ll be without Dennys Reyes, Boof Bonser and Pat Neshek.
A look at the five bullpen locks, as well as the folks vying for the final two spots:
The Closer: Joe Nathan
2008 Stats: 67.2 IP, 39 SV, 1.33 ERA, 74 K / 18 BB, 0.90 WHIP
Nathan is just 55 saves shy of Rick Aguilera’s franchise-leading career total.
While the rest of the Twins’ bullpen trudged through a difficult 2008 season, Nathan went ahead and put together one of his best seasons to date, posting the lowest ERA of his career while allowing less than one baserunner per inning and racking up 39 saves. Nathan has been one of the most consistent relief pitchers in baseball over the past five years and if he stays healthy, there’s little question that he’ll remain automatic in the ninth inning. If his shoulder flare from a week ago eventually turns out to be something serious, the Twins may be in trouble.
Setup Man: Jesse Crain
2008 Stats: 62.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 50 K / 24 BB, 1.37 WHIP
All in all, Crain’s 2008 campaign should be viewed as a success. Coming back from major shoulder surgery, the right-hander showed mid-90s velocity on his fastball and posted numbers fairly similar to the ones from his last year prior to the injury. Unfortunately, Crain’s success got lost in the bullpen’s struggles, and he was hit hard in some key situations. He’s looked good this spring so the hope is that he can become a reliable eight-inning guy in front of Nathan. If he can’t, the Twins lack compelling alternatives.
Lefty Specialist: Craig Breslow
2008 Stats (w/ Indians & Twins): 47 IP, 1.91 ERA, 39 K / 19 BB, 1.13 WHIP
Breslow was one of the most pleasant surprises of last season, posting a 1.67 ERA and holding opponents to a .180 batting average over 38 2/3 innings after being snagged from the Indians in May. Breslow was particularly effective against left-handers but pitched well against righties as well, making him a much better option than Dennys Reyes. Breslow has had success everywhere he’s been in the majors, but has only accumulated 75 /13 career innings and so must prove that he can repeat his performance from last year. I’m optimistic.
Middle Reliever: Matt Guerrier
2008 Stats: 76.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 59 K / 37 BB, 1.59 WHIP
In 2007, Guerrier ranked fourth in the AL with 73 appearances. In ’08, he tied for first in the league with 76 appearances. All this work seems to have caught up with Guerrier, who struggled a bit toward the end of ’07 and completely broke down late last year. Through much of his career, Guerrier has proven capable of posting solid numbers, so the Twins will have to hope that he can rebound this year and show that his arm isn’t shot.
Middle Reliever: Luis Ayala
2008 Stats: 75.2 IP, 5.71 ERA, 50 K / 24 BB, 1.45 WHIP
In and of itself, the Ayala acquisition this offseason wasn’t necessarily a bad move. The problem is that Ayala is basically in the same boat as Guerrier -- both have been successful pitchers earlier in their careers, but both pitched very poorly last year. When you’re trying to assemble an improved bullpen, relying on multiple pitchers with mediocre stuff to rebound from dreadful seasons is probably not the wisest strategy.
The final two bullpen spots are not set in stone, so here’s a quick look at the contenders and the favorites to fill each spot…
Second Lefty
Jose Mijares
2008 Stats: 10.1 IP, 0.87 ERA, 5 K / 0 BB, 0.29 WHIP
Mijares was a breath of fresh air last fall when he joined the Twins as a September call-up and shut down the competition in his first big-league stint, allowing just one run on three hits and no walks over 10 1/3 innings. Yet, anyone who has followed Mijares’ minor-league career surely worried that the 23-year-old was pitching over his head. He’d consistently struggled to find the strike zone throughout the minors, yet didn’t issue a single walk during his time with the Twins. Reality has caught up in a hurry. After getting kicked off his winter league team due to attitude problems and showing up at Twins camp out of shape, Mijares has struggled badly with his control and gotten hit hard in exhibition play. He’s a real long-shot to make the team out of spring training, but still has electric stuff and should arrive in Minnesota at some point this year.
Brian Duensing
2008 Stats (AAA): 138.2 IP, 5-11, 4.28 ERA, 77 K / 34 BB, 1.33 WHIP
With Mijares losing his grip on the bullpen role of second left-hander, Duensing has emerged as a surprise contender. He has pitched very well this spring and holds a 3.46 career ERA in the minors. I openly wondered last spring how Duensing would find a way to the major leagues onto the Twins’ big-league roster considering how far back he was in the starting pitching pecking order, but this might be his best shot. He’s earned it. He’s not a dominator, but possesses the capability to deliver quality innings in low-pressure situations.
Favorite: Duensing
Long Reliever
Philip Humber
2008 Stats (AAA): 136.1 IP, 10-8, 4.56 ERA, 106 K / 49 BB, 1.42 WHIP
Overall, Humber’s 2008 stat line looks pretty mediocre. However, he showed clear improvement over the course of the season, which is something you like to see from a young pitcher still just a couple years removed from Tommy John surgery. In April and May, Humbers strikeout rate was way down, his walk rate was way up, and he allowed opposing hitters to bat around .300 against him. But in June, his K-rate shot up, the walk rate dropped off a cliff, and the BAA dropped by about 30 points. Those trends continued through the rest of the season, and in August Humber had his best month, holding opponents to a .237 average while posting a solid 3.66 ERA and 37-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio before finishing the season with the Twins in September. Humber has a good arm, has pitched well this spring and is out of options, so he’s basically assured a spot on the Opening Day roster. With his nasty curveball, he could ultimately develop into a strong middle reliever.
R.A. Dickey
2008 Stats (w/ Mariners): 112.1 IP, 5-8, 5.21 ERA, 58 K / 51 BB, 1.56 WHIP
People seem to get excited about Dickey because he throws the knuckleball, but it’s worth noting that the guy has a 5.57 career ERA and has never finished a big-league season with an ERA under 5.09. A closer look at the numbers shows that he’s been far more reliable as a reliever than as a starter, but in general he just hasn’t been a good pitcher over the course of his career. It’s nice to have a guy like him stashed in Triple-A, and that’s the role he should serve coming out of the spring.
Jason Jones
2008 Stats (AA): 148.2 IP, 13-7, 3.33 ERA, 91 K / 49 BB, 1.31 WHIP
The Twins apparently saw something they liked in Jones since they selected him out of the Yankees’ system in the Rule 5 draft, but it’s tough to say what that was. He’s a 26-year-old with barely any experience above Double-A and thoroughly average numbers throughout the minors, and he has hardly been lights out this spring. He’ll probably either be returned to the Yankees or kept in the minors in return for a minor prospect.
Favorite: Humber
A look at the five bullpen locks, as well as the folks vying for the final two spots:
The Closer: Joe Nathan
2008 Stats: 67.2 IP, 39 SV, 1.33 ERA, 74 K / 18 BB, 0.90 WHIP
Nathan is just 55 saves shy of Rick Aguilera’s franchise-leading career total.While the rest of the Twins’ bullpen trudged through a difficult 2008 season, Nathan went ahead and put together one of his best seasons to date, posting the lowest ERA of his career while allowing less than one baserunner per inning and racking up 39 saves. Nathan has been one of the most consistent relief pitchers in baseball over the past five years and if he stays healthy, there’s little question that he’ll remain automatic in the ninth inning. If his shoulder flare from a week ago eventually turns out to be something serious, the Twins may be in trouble.
Setup Man: Jesse Crain
2008 Stats: 62.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 50 K / 24 BB, 1.37 WHIP
All in all, Crain’s 2008 campaign should be viewed as a success. Coming back from major shoulder surgery, the right-hander showed mid-90s velocity on his fastball and posted numbers fairly similar to the ones from his last year prior to the injury. Unfortunately, Crain’s success got lost in the bullpen’s struggles, and he was hit hard in some key situations. He’s looked good this spring so the hope is that he can become a reliable eight-inning guy in front of Nathan. If he can’t, the Twins lack compelling alternatives.
Lefty Specialist: Craig Breslow
2008 Stats (w/ Indians & Twins): 47 IP, 1.91 ERA, 39 K / 19 BB, 1.13 WHIP
Breslow was one of the most pleasant surprises of last season, posting a 1.67 ERA and holding opponents to a .180 batting average over 38 2/3 innings after being snagged from the Indians in May. Breslow was particularly effective against left-handers but pitched well against righties as well, making him a much better option than Dennys Reyes. Breslow has had success everywhere he’s been in the majors, but has only accumulated 75 /13 career innings and so must prove that he can repeat his performance from last year. I’m optimistic.
Middle Reliever: Matt Guerrier
2008 Stats: 76.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 59 K / 37 BB, 1.59 WHIP
In 2007, Guerrier ranked fourth in the AL with 73 appearances. In ’08, he tied for first in the league with 76 appearances. All this work seems to have caught up with Guerrier, who struggled a bit toward the end of ’07 and completely broke down late last year. Through much of his career, Guerrier has proven capable of posting solid numbers, so the Twins will have to hope that he can rebound this year and show that his arm isn’t shot.
Middle Reliever: Luis Ayala
2008 Stats: 75.2 IP, 5.71 ERA, 50 K / 24 BB, 1.45 WHIP
In and of itself, the Ayala acquisition this offseason wasn’t necessarily a bad move. The problem is that Ayala is basically in the same boat as Guerrier -- both have been successful pitchers earlier in their careers, but both pitched very poorly last year. When you’re trying to assemble an improved bullpen, relying on multiple pitchers with mediocre stuff to rebound from dreadful seasons is probably not the wisest strategy.
The final two bullpen spots are not set in stone, so here’s a quick look at the contenders and the favorites to fill each spot…
Second Lefty
Jose Mijares
2008 Stats: 10.1 IP, 0.87 ERA, 5 K / 0 BB, 0.29 WHIP
Mijares was a breath of fresh air last fall when he joined the Twins as a September call-up and shut down the competition in his first big-league stint, allowing just one run on three hits and no walks over 10 1/3 innings. Yet, anyone who has followed Mijares’ minor-league career surely worried that the 23-year-old was pitching over his head. He’d consistently struggled to find the strike zone throughout the minors, yet didn’t issue a single walk during his time with the Twins. Reality has caught up in a hurry. After getting kicked off his winter league team due to attitude problems and showing up at Twins camp out of shape, Mijares has struggled badly with his control and gotten hit hard in exhibition play. He’s a real long-shot to make the team out of spring training, but still has electric stuff and should arrive in Minnesota at some point this year.
Brian Duensing
2008 Stats (AAA): 138.2 IP, 5-11, 4.28 ERA, 77 K / 34 BB, 1.33 WHIP
With Mijares losing his grip on the bullpen role of second left-hander, Duensing has emerged as a surprise contender. He has pitched very well this spring and holds a 3.46 career ERA in the minors. I openly wondered last spring how Duensing would find a way to the major leagues onto the Twins’ big-league roster considering how far back he was in the starting pitching pecking order, but this might be his best shot. He’s earned it. He’s not a dominator, but possesses the capability to deliver quality innings in low-pressure situations.
Favorite: Duensing
Long Reliever
Philip Humber
2008 Stats (AAA): 136.1 IP, 10-8, 4.56 ERA, 106 K / 49 BB, 1.42 WHIP
Overall, Humber’s 2008 stat line looks pretty mediocre. However, he showed clear improvement over the course of the season, which is something you like to see from a young pitcher still just a couple years removed from Tommy John surgery. In April and May, Humbers strikeout rate was way down, his walk rate was way up, and he allowed opposing hitters to bat around .300 against him. But in June, his K-rate shot up, the walk rate dropped off a cliff, and the BAA dropped by about 30 points. Those trends continued through the rest of the season, and in August Humber had his best month, holding opponents to a .237 average while posting a solid 3.66 ERA and 37-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio before finishing the season with the Twins in September. Humber has a good arm, has pitched well this spring and is out of options, so he’s basically assured a spot on the Opening Day roster. With his nasty curveball, he could ultimately develop into a strong middle reliever.
R.A. Dickey
2008 Stats (w/ Mariners): 112.1 IP, 5-8, 5.21 ERA, 58 K / 51 BB, 1.56 WHIP
People seem to get excited about Dickey because he throws the knuckleball, but it’s worth noting that the guy has a 5.57 career ERA and has never finished a big-league season with an ERA under 5.09. A closer look at the numbers shows that he’s been far more reliable as a reliever than as a starter, but in general he just hasn’t been a good pitcher over the course of his career. It’s nice to have a guy like him stashed in Triple-A, and that’s the role he should serve coming out of the spring.
Jason Jones
2008 Stats (AA): 148.2 IP, 13-7, 3.33 ERA, 91 K / 49 BB, 1.31 WHIP
The Twins apparently saw something they liked in Jones since they selected him out of the Yankees’ system in the Rule 5 draft, but it’s tough to say what that was. He’s a 26-year-old with barely any experience above Double-A and thoroughly average numbers throughout the minors, and he has hardly been lights out this spring. He’ll probably either be returned to the Yankees or kept in the minors in return for a minor prospect.
Favorite: Humber
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Chips on the Shoulder
Pitching a baseball has been described as the most violent action in all of sports. As such, it's no surprise that arm injuries are so common among big-league pitchers. The Twins have their share of experience with devastating arm injuries with Francisco Liriano having sat out the 2007 season after Tommy John surgery and Pat Neshek set to do the same this year. They are lucky to enter the 2009 season with all five members of their rotation seemingly healthy, but in the bullpen, concerns are brewing.
The question that begs asking: will shoulder injuries become a nightmare for the 2009 Twins? They've struck two of the team's right-handed bullpen arms in recent years, and now questions have surfaced surrounding the closer. We can't forget that shoulder issues are not far in Glen Perkins's rearview mirror.
Jesse Crain appears fully recovered from the shoulder operation he underwent in 2007, but Boof Bonser is set to miss the upcoming season after having shoulder surgery of his own. Now, Joe Nathan has announced that he's withdrawing from the World Baseball Classic due to some shoulder issues. The problem is currently being labeled a sore acromioclavicular (AC) joint and there is no indication that it is serious, but given my worrisome nature when it comes these matters, the news that Nathan has been feeling discomfort when throwing immediately sent pings of terror to my very core.
Nathan is among the most important and irreplaceable players on the Twins roster, and losing him for any extended portion of time could seriously jeopardize the team's chances of contending in '09. The loss of its last remaining true right-handed power arm could spell doom for a bullpen already shrouded in questions and concerns.
Of course, I must repeat that the reports that have come out so far don't give any true cause for alarm and I'm probably just worrying too much. Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of this news is that with Nathan abandoning Team USA, my obligations as a Twins fan almost force me to cheer for Canada in Saturday's match-up. Hopefully that's the worst thing to come out of this.
The question that begs asking: will shoulder injuries become a nightmare for the 2009 Twins? They've struck two of the team's right-handed bullpen arms in recent years, and now questions have surfaced surrounding the closer. We can't forget that shoulder issues are not far in Glen Perkins's rearview mirror.
Jesse Crain appears fully recovered from the shoulder operation he underwent in 2007, but Boof Bonser is set to miss the upcoming season after having shoulder surgery of his own. Now, Joe Nathan has announced that he's withdrawing from the World Baseball Classic due to some shoulder issues. The problem is currently being labeled a sore acromioclavicular (AC) joint and there is no indication that it is serious, but given my worrisome nature when it comes these matters, the news that Nathan has been feeling discomfort when throwing immediately sent pings of terror to my very core.
Nathan is among the most important and irreplaceable players on the Twins roster, and losing him for any extended portion of time could seriously jeopardize the team's chances of contending in '09. The loss of its last remaining true right-handed power arm could spell doom for a bullpen already shrouded in questions and concerns.
Of course, I must repeat that the reports that have come out so far don't give any true cause for alarm and I'm probably just worrying too much. Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of this news is that with Nathan abandoning Team USA, my obligations as a Twins fan almost force me to cheer for Canada in Saturday's match-up. Hopefully that's the worst thing to come out of this.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Nathan's Deep Impact
Cliff Lee is having an amazing year for the Indians. At this point, he seems like nearly a shoe-in for the American League Cy Young Award. If he wasn't, the front-runner would likely be Francisco Rodriguez, who has already notched 50 saves this year and seems likely to break Bobby Thigpen's single-season record of 57.
But, as Mr. Mosvick discussed on Tuesday, Rodriguez has not been the best closer in the AL this year. Not even close. K-Rod's gaudy save total has caused people to overlook the incredible things Mariano Rivera has been able to do this season at the age of 38, and also to overlook perhaps the most valuable reliever in all of baseball: Joe Nathan.=
The Angels have completed a lot of victories this year with Rodriguez on the mound. Yet, his value is overstated, as his save total has more to do with the fact that his team has played in a lot of close victories than any particular level of dominance on his part. Moreover, Rodriguez's presence on his team can hardly be viewed as crucial; in fact, he might not even be the best reliever on bullpen. Darren Oliver and Scot Shields both hang right with Rodriguez in terms of ERA and WHIP, and 24-year-old Jose Arredondo (Rodriguez's heir apparent) has muzzled hitters with a 1.18 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .189 BAA here in his rookie campaign. If Rodriguez wasn't effectively closing out these games for the Angels, someone else would be.
This is not the case for the Twins. We've all watched games slip away again and again with relievers not named Nathan on the mound, so one must ask: where would this team be without its newly re-signed closer? The answer is that they probably would not be anywhere close to first place.
Win Probability Added is a fun little statistic that measures a player's contributions to his team and gives credit when he is able to deliver in situations that more strongly affect the outcome of a ballgame. Nathan leads all American League relievers in WPA at 4.28. He holds a substantial lead over the next man down the list, Oakland's Brad Zeigler (3.76) and is well ahead of the fifth-ranking Rodriguez (3.29) and sixth-ranking Rivera (3.19). Oh, and the next Twin on that list after Nathan? Matt Guerrier, at 47 (0.50).
The importance of closer role in baseball generally tends to be overrated, but great relievers who can reliably shut down opposing offenses in high-leverage situations are not. Nathan has been the best in the league in this regard.
A player's importance to his respective team is not really taken into account when it comes to Cy Young consideration the way it is with the Most Valuable Player award. But, if it was, Nathan would have to be one of the very top choices for the honor in the AL. Few players at any position have been as integral to their team's success as he has been while closing out victories for the Twins. Because his raw stats (1.11 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 36 saves, 62/13 K/BB) are highly impressive, Nathan will likely end up among the top five vote-getters for the Cy Young Award for the third time in five years, which is pretty darn impressive for a closer.
Extending their closer's contract continues to look like one of the best decisions made by the Twins this past offseason. It's pretty scary to think about where this team would be right now without him.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Reversal of Fortunes
At the end of last week, things seemed pretty down for the Twins. After a brutal three-game sweep at Yankee Stadium, things started out poorly against the Indians in Cleveland on Friday, when the Twins lost a close game 5-4. For starting pitcher Livan Hernandez, it wasn't exactly a case of bad luck, as he allowed 15 baserunners in eight innings, including 12 hits, four of which went for extra-bases. For the Twins hitters, until Justin Morneau's ninth-inning. two-run homer, swung with futility against lefty Cliff Lee, striking out 10 times and walking no times, managing only two runs against the Cy Young contender.
However, luck did turn around the last two games. The Twins greeted Fausto Carmona's return to the mound with a fervant onslaught, eviscerating Carmona's pitching for 9 runs in just 2 2/3 innings, with seven hits and three walks, including a Brian Buscher three-run blast to knock Carmona out of the game. In total, the Twins offense managed 15 hits and four walks Saturday night, the stars being Buscher, with his 3-for-5 night and five RBI, Delmon Young, who went 3-for-5 with two RBI, and Justin Morneau, who went 2-for-3 with a double, two walks, and two runs scored.
Yesterday, the Twins offense didn't blow anyone out of the water, but they did rally in a very encouraging way. With the game tied in the ninth and lefty closer Rafael Perez on the mound, Morneau, who came into the game 1-for-8 against Perez, belted a game-winning double to center. Jason Kubel followed up with his own RBI single off the lefty. Anytime the Twins lefties hitters are doing that well against a tough lefty pitcher, then you know that things are looking up for the team. Here are a few other notes on the weekend:
* Yesterday's game also featured plenty of good pitching. Nick Blackburn bounced back from a rough start against the Yankees that featured some ugly defense by getting the opposite play behind him. Blackburn went seven innings, allowing only four hits and a walk while striking out three, lowering his ERA to 3.68. Of course, the two amazing catches by Denard Span certainly helped things. Span had quite the weekend in center field filling in for Carlos Gomez, who hurt himself Friday night making his own spectacular, athletic catch before hurting a disk in his back when he collided with the wall.
* Beyond the great starting pitching and the stellar defense of Span, one depressing statistic still lurks. Joe Nathan picked up his 28th save yesterday and with a scoreless inninig, dropped his ERA to a eye-popping 1.05. That goes along with a 0.91 WHIP and a 47/11 K/BB ratio in 42 2/3 innings. What is the problem? The continued underuse of Nathan, who has only three appearances in nine games since the return from the All-Star game. Nathan remains on pace for only 65 innings, so it is about time that Gardy starts to get slightly more flexible in his use, as Nathan could easily survive 70 or even a few more innings just fine, while increasing the Twins chances of winning in any close game.
* Lost in the 11-4 offensive shelling of Saturday night was good pitching from both Scott Baker and most of the Twins bullpen. Any improvement in the bullpen is good news for Twins fan, though its not all that meaningful that Brian Bass or Craig Breslow had solid scoreless innings in low-pressure situations. That is in fact the only places they have had much success this year. Baker, on the other hand, continues to show up as the Twins ace. Baker only pitched five innings Saturday, but he did manage to dominate many Indians hitters, striking out five. Overall, his numbers look impressive across the board, with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, a .242 BAA, and a 81/18 B/KK ratio in 96 innings. Easily, the B/KK ratio is the most impressive statistic for a young pitcher, as it bodes very well for his future.
Today, the Twins will start an important four-game series against the White Sox at the Metrodome, starting with a matchup of Kevin Slowey and Mark Buerhle tonight. Hopefully, the Twins bats keep up some success against lefties and that may well happen, since the Twins have hit Buerhle well this year, with 16 hits and two homers in 13 2/3 innings against him this year, giving him a 5.27 ERA against the Twins so far in 2008.
However, luck did turn around the last two games. The Twins greeted Fausto Carmona's return to the mound with a fervant onslaught, eviscerating Carmona's pitching for 9 runs in just 2 2/3 innings, with seven hits and three walks, including a Brian Buscher three-run blast to knock Carmona out of the game. In total, the Twins offense managed 15 hits and four walks Saturday night, the stars being Buscher, with his 3-for-5 night and five RBI, Delmon Young, who went 3-for-5 with two RBI, and Justin Morneau, who went 2-for-3 with a double, two walks, and two runs scored.
Yesterday, the Twins offense didn't blow anyone out of the water, but they did rally in a very encouraging way. With the game tied in the ninth and lefty closer Rafael Perez on the mound, Morneau, who came into the game 1-for-8 against Perez, belted a game-winning double to center. Jason Kubel followed up with his own RBI single off the lefty. Anytime the Twins lefties hitters are doing that well against a tough lefty pitcher, then you know that things are looking up for the team. Here are a few other notes on the weekend:
* Yesterday's game also featured plenty of good pitching. Nick Blackburn bounced back from a rough start against the Yankees that featured some ugly defense by getting the opposite play behind him. Blackburn went seven innings, allowing only four hits and a walk while striking out three, lowering his ERA to 3.68. Of course, the two amazing catches by Denard Span certainly helped things. Span had quite the weekend in center field filling in for Carlos Gomez, who hurt himself Friday night making his own spectacular, athletic catch before hurting a disk in his back when he collided with the wall.
* Beyond the great starting pitching and the stellar defense of Span, one depressing statistic still lurks. Joe Nathan picked up his 28th save yesterday and with a scoreless inninig, dropped his ERA to a eye-popping 1.05. That goes along with a 0.91 WHIP and a 47/11 K/BB ratio in 42 2/3 innings. What is the problem? The continued underuse of Nathan, who has only three appearances in nine games since the return from the All-Star game. Nathan remains on pace for only 65 innings, so it is about time that Gardy starts to get slightly more flexible in his use, as Nathan could easily survive 70 or even a few more innings just fine, while increasing the Twins chances of winning in any close game.
* Lost in the 11-4 offensive shelling of Saturday night was good pitching from both Scott Baker and most of the Twins bullpen. Any improvement in the bullpen is good news for Twins fan, though its not all that meaningful that Brian Bass or Craig Breslow had solid scoreless innings in low-pressure situations. That is in fact the only places they have had much success this year. Baker, on the other hand, continues to show up as the Twins ace. Baker only pitched five innings Saturday, but he did manage to dominate many Indians hitters, striking out five. Overall, his numbers look impressive across the board, with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, a .242 BAA, and a 81/18 B/KK ratio in 96 innings. Easily, the B/KK ratio is the most impressive statistic for a young pitcher, as it bodes very well for his future.
Today, the Twins will start an important four-game series against the White Sox at the Metrodome, starting with a matchup of Kevin Slowey and Mark Buerhle tonight. Hopefully, the Twins bats keep up some success against lefties and that may well happen, since the Twins have hit Buerhle well this year, with 16 hits and two homers in 13 2/3 innings against him this year, giving him a 5.27 ERA against the Twins so far in 2008.
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