Jesse Crain signed a three-year, $13 million contract with the White Sox yesterday, officially ending a seven-year tenure with the Twins that was filled with ups and downs.
"Kenny Williams said I had been a pain in their butt the last couple of years and wanted to get me on their side," Crain told Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press.
I bet I can pinpoint the exact moment that the White Sox decided they wanted to add the right-handed reliever. It was mid-September, and they were facing the Twins in Chicago while clinging to very slim postseason hopes. Trailing by one in the seventh, the Sox had loaded the bases with one out for their No. 4 and 5 hitters. Crain, amidst the best four-month stretch of pitching in his career, unleashed a barrage of nasty sliders and 95 mph fastballs on Paul Konerko and Manny Ramirez, striking them both out to end Chicago's threat and essentially their season.
Two days later, I penned an article about Crain labeling him the team's "bullpen ace." It's what he was for the Twins from mid-May to the end of the year -- a guy you could rely on to come in and get outs in the most sticky of situations. On the surface, that's a very tough piece to lose.
This isn't necessarily a traumatic development, though. In fact, it might ultimately benefit the Twins. They'll get a supplemental pick in the 2011 draft since Crain was a Type B free agent, and meanwhile one of their top divisional rivals is committing $13 million in guaranteed money to a guy who was rightfully being called "Crainwreck" by fans as recently as May of this year.
When Crain's going good, he's a powerful weapon in the bullpen. But he's been prone to stretches of abysmal performance and 2010 was the first time he's posted a WHIP below 1.37 since 2006. He was a non-tender candidate last offseason, had a 7.31 ERA in mid-May of this year and now he's getting a three-year deal in a deep relief market? I'd have liked to bring Crain back, but with the Sox offering a contract like that the Twins were wise not to even consider matching it.
Matt Guerrier also came off the market yesterday, signing a three-year deal with the Dodgers. He's been mostly effective over the past four years but his arm has seen more wear than any other reliever in baseball during that span. While his durability will be missed, it's tough to justify the kind of contract Guerrier got from Los Angeles.
Right now, the Twins' bullpen situation looks bleak, yet I'm probably less concerned about the depth of this unit than the rotation or lineup. The market for relievers is flush this winter, unlike starting pitchers and middle infielders, so the Twins can afford to show patience and wait until January or even February when solid arms will still be available and likely without the need to make dangerous three-year commitments.
Showing posts with label guerrier. Show all posts
Showing posts with label guerrier. Show all posts
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Thursday, September 02, 2010
Gassing Guerrier (Again!)
Something is wrong with Matt Guerrier.
Well, let's backtrack a bit. Last night, Francisco Liriano dueled with Max Scherzer over seven innings in the type of game that bores casual fans but delights hardcores. Both pitchers were at the top of their game; Scherzer mowed down the Twins hitters for nine impressive frames but hiccuped in the sixth inning and yielded a single run, while Liriano executed big pitches and performed well enough to exit after the seventh with a 1-0 lead.
It's a shame that Ron Gardenhire, a man whose bullpen management I typically commend, felt the need to engage in a needless chess match with his relievers that ultimately cost Liriano a win and could have cost the Twins the game.
With Liriano gassed after seven innings, Gardenhire rightfully turned to his best reliever, Jesse Crain, to start the eighth. Crain gave up a lead-off single to Austin Jackson but then got Will Rhymes to pop out on a bunt attempt. With one out and the tying run on first, and lefty-swinging Johnny Damon due up, Gardy decided to flex his managerial muscle and counter the Detroit lefty with one of his own. He turned to Randy Flores. The manager was ostensibly playing the percentages, but Flores has not proven to be a particularly effective weapon against lefties (certainly not more effective than Crain, whose devastating slider baffles hitters from both sides) and Damon doesn't have much of a platoon split.
Gardenhire's move completely fizzled when Jim Leyland subbed lefty-mashing righty Ryan Raburn to face the southpaw. Fortunately, Flores was able to get a strikeout anyway. With MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera stepping in and representing the tying run, Gardenhire elected to turn to Matt Guerrier.
This is where he lost me.
I could understand the reasoning behind Gardy's prior moves in the inning. Tying run on base, you want to get the lefty-lefty match-up, maybe preserve Crain a little bit... sure, you use Flores. But when I saw Gardenhire call upon Guerrier from the bullpen, I shook my head. Guerrier hasn't been effective lately, and he'd worked in three of the team's past five games. Why not let him rest a little? I wondered to myself (and to my tweeps) why the team was unwilling to turn to Matt Capps for a four-out save. They traded one of their best prospects for the guy, you'd think they'd be willing to trust him to come in and get one extra out against the opposing team's best hitter.
As I questioned the decision, I decided to put my perception that Guerrier has been struggling to the test. So I looked up his numbers since the All-Star break. His ERA sat at 4.50 -- not too bad. He'd allowed only 15 hits and five walks in 20 innings, which is actually quite good. Then I looked at this strikeouts. He had four. Guerrier has struck out four of the 76 batters he'd faced since the All-Star break.
He came into the game, walked Miguel Cabrera, gave up a game-tying RBI single to Jhonny Peralta and then got Brandon Inge to ground out and end the inning. That pushes Guerrier's post-break total to 79 batters with only four strikeouts.
Guerrier has never been a strikeout artist, but that type of minuscule whiff rate makes Nick Blackburn look good. It's irresponsible to repeatedly trust a guy that's allowing contact that frequently high-leverage late-game situations. Yet, Gardenhire continues to do it, and did it again last night.
That appearance marked Guerrier's 62nd of the season, which ranks him third in the American League. Guerrier is being used more than almost any other reliever in the league, and he's breaking down late in the season. We've seen this exact story before. More than once.
It's one lesson that Gardenhire just refuses to learn. Brian Fuentes' unavailability puts the Twins' manager in a bit of a bind, but there was no reason he really needed to use Guerrier last night and he should be taking any possible opportunity to rest him because at this point the righty reliever isn't fooling anybody and it's hard to believe his taxed arm isn't running on fumes.
Well, let's backtrack a bit. Last night, Francisco Liriano dueled with Max Scherzer over seven innings in the type of game that bores casual fans but delights hardcores. Both pitchers were at the top of their game; Scherzer mowed down the Twins hitters for nine impressive frames but hiccuped in the sixth inning and yielded a single run, while Liriano executed big pitches and performed well enough to exit after the seventh with a 1-0 lead.
It's a shame that Ron Gardenhire, a man whose bullpen management I typically commend, felt the need to engage in a needless chess match with his relievers that ultimately cost Liriano a win and could have cost the Twins the game.
With Liriano gassed after seven innings, Gardenhire rightfully turned to his best reliever, Jesse Crain, to start the eighth. Crain gave up a lead-off single to Austin Jackson but then got Will Rhymes to pop out on a bunt attempt. With one out and the tying run on first, and lefty-swinging Johnny Damon due up, Gardy decided to flex his managerial muscle and counter the Detroit lefty with one of his own. He turned to Randy Flores. The manager was ostensibly playing the percentages, but Flores has not proven to be a particularly effective weapon against lefties (certainly not more effective than Crain, whose devastating slider baffles hitters from both sides) and Damon doesn't have much of a platoon split.
Gardenhire's move completely fizzled when Jim Leyland subbed lefty-mashing righty Ryan Raburn to face the southpaw. Fortunately, Flores was able to get a strikeout anyway. With MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera stepping in and representing the tying run, Gardenhire elected to turn to Matt Guerrier.
This is where he lost me.
I could understand the reasoning behind Gardy's prior moves in the inning. Tying run on base, you want to get the lefty-lefty match-up, maybe preserve Crain a little bit... sure, you use Flores. But when I saw Gardenhire call upon Guerrier from the bullpen, I shook my head. Guerrier hasn't been effective lately, and he'd worked in three of the team's past five games. Why not let him rest a little? I wondered to myself (and to my tweeps) why the team was unwilling to turn to Matt Capps for a four-out save. They traded one of their best prospects for the guy, you'd think they'd be willing to trust him to come in and get one extra out against the opposing team's best hitter.As I questioned the decision, I decided to put my perception that Guerrier has been struggling to the test. So I looked up his numbers since the All-Star break. His ERA sat at 4.50 -- not too bad. He'd allowed only 15 hits and five walks in 20 innings, which is actually quite good. Then I looked at this strikeouts. He had four. Guerrier has struck out four of the 76 batters he'd faced since the All-Star break.
He came into the game, walked Miguel Cabrera, gave up a game-tying RBI single to Jhonny Peralta and then got Brandon Inge to ground out and end the inning. That pushes Guerrier's post-break total to 79 batters with only four strikeouts.
Guerrier has never been a strikeout artist, but that type of minuscule whiff rate makes Nick Blackburn look good. It's irresponsible to repeatedly trust a guy that's allowing contact that frequently high-leverage late-game situations. Yet, Gardenhire continues to do it, and did it again last night.
That appearance marked Guerrier's 62nd of the season, which ranks him third in the American League. Guerrier is being used more than almost any other reliever in the league, and he's breaking down late in the season. We've seen this exact story before. More than once.
It's one lesson that Gardenhire just refuses to learn. Brian Fuentes' unavailability puts the Twins' manager in a bit of a bind, but there was no reason he really needed to use Guerrier last night and he should be taking any possible opportunity to rest him because at this point the righty reliever isn't fooling anybody and it's hard to believe his taxed arm isn't running on fumes.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Saving Guerrier's Arm
In 2007, Matt Guerrier posted a 2.88 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in the first half. After the All Star break, those numbers inflated to 3.88 and 1.27. The second-half decline may have had something to do with the fact that Guerrier set a career high with 73 appearances, a figure that ranked him seventh in the American League.
In 2008, Matt Guerrier posted a 3.35 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in the first half. After the All Star break, those numbers inflated to 8.88 and 2.09. The ugly second-half numbers included a September and October in which Guerrier went 0-5 with a 10.07 ERA as the Twins chased the White Sox for the AL Central lead. The late collapse may have had something to do with the fact that Guerrier set a new career high with 76 appearances, a figure that tied him for the league lead.
This year, Guerrier has looked sharp for the most part. He pitched an excellent inning to protect a relatively small lead against the Tigers on Tuesday night, and entered last night's game having allowed just 12 hits and three walks over 18 innings. Ron Gardenhire called on Guerrier for the third time in four days last night, and the results were brutal. The reliever coughed up a pair of home runs while recording just one out, and turned a lead into a deficit for the Twins. The appearance in last night's game puts Guerrier on pace to set a new career high with 81.
The evidence seems to pretty clearly indicate that Guerrier's struggles over the past couple years have been the result of overuse. And as much as I'd like to point an accusatory finger at Gardenhire, it's difficult to blame him in this instance. The unfortunate fact is that the ineffectiveness of the rest of the bullpen often leaves Gardenhire with no choice but to trot his top relievers out far more often than he'd like.
Tuesday night's game presents a great example of what I'm talking about. In that game, Gardenhire never should have needed to use Guerrier. Jesse Crain started the seventh and the plan was for him to complete one inning and hand the ball to Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan, who would take care of the eighth and ninth. Unfortunately, Crain couldn't get the job done, as he cut the Twins' lead down to three by surrendering a leadoff homer and then issued a walk before being pulled in favor of Mijares. That Gardenhire was forced to go to Mijares early left the eighth inning open and, with the game still relatively close, Gardy had little choice but to go to Guerrier. It was this type of situation that caused several relievers to get overworked last year. Crain, and others (LUIS AYALA), must step up and get outs.
Of course, if Gardenhire is looking for another right-handed reliever to take pressure off Guerrier and Crain, there's that Joe Nathan guy who has only accumulated 13 innings of work through the team's first 34 games...
In 2008, Matt Guerrier posted a 3.35 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in the first half. After the All Star break, those numbers inflated to 8.88 and 2.09. The ugly second-half numbers included a September and October in which Guerrier went 0-5 with a 10.07 ERA as the Twins chased the White Sox for the AL Central lead. The late collapse may have had something to do with the fact that Guerrier set a new career high with 76 appearances, a figure that tied him for the league lead.
This year, Guerrier has looked sharp for the most part. He pitched an excellent inning to protect a relatively small lead against the Tigers on Tuesday night, and entered last night's game having allowed just 12 hits and three walks over 18 innings. Ron Gardenhire called on Guerrier for the third time in four days last night, and the results were brutal. The reliever coughed up a pair of home runs while recording just one out, and turned a lead into a deficit for the Twins. The appearance in last night's game puts Guerrier on pace to set a new career high with 81.
The evidence seems to pretty clearly indicate that Guerrier's struggles over the past couple years have been the result of overuse. And as much as I'd like to point an accusatory finger at Gardenhire, it's difficult to blame him in this instance. The unfortunate fact is that the ineffectiveness of the rest of the bullpen often leaves Gardenhire with no choice but to trot his top relievers out far more often than he'd like.
Tuesday night's game presents a great example of what I'm talking about. In that game, Gardenhire never should have needed to use Guerrier. Jesse Crain started the seventh and the plan was for him to complete one inning and hand the ball to Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan, who would take care of the eighth and ninth. Unfortunately, Crain couldn't get the job done, as he cut the Twins' lead down to three by surrendering a leadoff homer and then issued a walk before being pulled in favor of Mijares. That Gardenhire was forced to go to Mijares early left the eighth inning open and, with the game still relatively close, Gardy had little choice but to go to Guerrier. It was this type of situation that caused several relievers to get overworked last year. Crain, and others (LUIS AYALA), must step up and get outs.
Of course, if Gardenhire is looking for another right-handed reliever to take pressure off Guerrier and Crain, there's that Joe Nathan guy who has only accumulated 13 innings of work through the team's first 34 games...
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher
Today I’ll wrap up the Position Analysis series by breaking down perhaps the most concerning unit on the Twins. In 2008, the bullpen was a glaring weakness for this club, particularly late in the season when many meaningful ballgames were lost in the late innings. During the offseason, Bill Smith did little to actively upgrade the relief corps, and it seems that the Twins will mostly be relying on internal improvement. They’ll need a lot of that, since they’ll be without Dennys Reyes, Boof Bonser and Pat Neshek.
A look at the five bullpen locks, as well as the folks vying for the final two spots:
The Closer: Joe Nathan
2008 Stats: 67.2 IP, 39 SV, 1.33 ERA, 74 K / 18 BB, 0.90 WHIP
Nathan is just 55 saves shy of Rick Aguilera’s franchise-leading career total.
While the rest of the Twins’ bullpen trudged through a difficult 2008 season, Nathan went ahead and put together one of his best seasons to date, posting the lowest ERA of his career while allowing less than one baserunner per inning and racking up 39 saves. Nathan has been one of the most consistent relief pitchers in baseball over the past five years and if he stays healthy, there’s little question that he’ll remain automatic in the ninth inning. If his shoulder flare from a week ago eventually turns out to be something serious, the Twins may be in trouble.
Setup Man: Jesse Crain
2008 Stats: 62.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 50 K / 24 BB, 1.37 WHIP
All in all, Crain’s 2008 campaign should be viewed as a success. Coming back from major shoulder surgery, the right-hander showed mid-90s velocity on his fastball and posted numbers fairly similar to the ones from his last year prior to the injury. Unfortunately, Crain’s success got lost in the bullpen’s struggles, and he was hit hard in some key situations. He’s looked good this spring so the hope is that he can become a reliable eight-inning guy in front of Nathan. If he can’t, the Twins lack compelling alternatives.
Lefty Specialist: Craig Breslow
2008 Stats (w/ Indians & Twins): 47 IP, 1.91 ERA, 39 K / 19 BB, 1.13 WHIP
Breslow was one of the most pleasant surprises of last season, posting a 1.67 ERA and holding opponents to a .180 batting average over 38 2/3 innings after being snagged from the Indians in May. Breslow was particularly effective against left-handers but pitched well against righties as well, making him a much better option than Dennys Reyes. Breslow has had success everywhere he’s been in the majors, but has only accumulated 75 /13 career innings and so must prove that he can repeat his performance from last year. I’m optimistic.
Middle Reliever: Matt Guerrier
2008 Stats: 76.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 59 K / 37 BB, 1.59 WHIP
In 2007, Guerrier ranked fourth in the AL with 73 appearances. In ’08, he tied for first in the league with 76 appearances. All this work seems to have caught up with Guerrier, who struggled a bit toward the end of ’07 and completely broke down late last year. Through much of his career, Guerrier has proven capable of posting solid numbers, so the Twins will have to hope that he can rebound this year and show that his arm isn’t shot.
Middle Reliever: Luis Ayala
2008 Stats: 75.2 IP, 5.71 ERA, 50 K / 24 BB, 1.45 WHIP
In and of itself, the Ayala acquisition this offseason wasn’t necessarily a bad move. The problem is that Ayala is basically in the same boat as Guerrier -- both have been successful pitchers earlier in their careers, but both pitched very poorly last year. When you’re trying to assemble an improved bullpen, relying on multiple pitchers with mediocre stuff to rebound from dreadful seasons is probably not the wisest strategy.
The final two bullpen spots are not set in stone, so here’s a quick look at the contenders and the favorites to fill each spot…
Second Lefty
Jose Mijares
2008 Stats: 10.1 IP, 0.87 ERA, 5 K / 0 BB, 0.29 WHIP
Mijares was a breath of fresh air last fall when he joined the Twins as a September call-up and shut down the competition in his first big-league stint, allowing just one run on three hits and no walks over 10 1/3 innings. Yet, anyone who has followed Mijares’ minor-league career surely worried that the 23-year-old was pitching over his head. He’d consistently struggled to find the strike zone throughout the minors, yet didn’t issue a single walk during his time with the Twins. Reality has caught up in a hurry. After getting kicked off his winter league team due to attitude problems and showing up at Twins camp out of shape, Mijares has struggled badly with his control and gotten hit hard in exhibition play. He’s a real long-shot to make the team out of spring training, but still has electric stuff and should arrive in Minnesota at some point this year.
Brian Duensing
2008 Stats (AAA): 138.2 IP, 5-11, 4.28 ERA, 77 K / 34 BB, 1.33 WHIP
With Mijares losing his grip on the bullpen role of second left-hander, Duensing has emerged as a surprise contender. He has pitched very well this spring and holds a 3.46 career ERA in the minors. I openly wondered last spring how Duensing would find a way to the major leagues onto the Twins’ big-league roster considering how far back he was in the starting pitching pecking order, but this might be his best shot. He’s earned it. He’s not a dominator, but possesses the capability to deliver quality innings in low-pressure situations.
Favorite: Duensing
Long Reliever
Philip Humber
2008 Stats (AAA): 136.1 IP, 10-8, 4.56 ERA, 106 K / 49 BB, 1.42 WHIP
Overall, Humber’s 2008 stat line looks pretty mediocre. However, he showed clear improvement over the course of the season, which is something you like to see from a young pitcher still just a couple years removed from Tommy John surgery. In April and May, Humbers strikeout rate was way down, his walk rate was way up, and he allowed opposing hitters to bat around .300 against him. But in June, his K-rate shot up, the walk rate dropped off a cliff, and the BAA dropped by about 30 points. Those trends continued through the rest of the season, and in August Humber had his best month, holding opponents to a .237 average while posting a solid 3.66 ERA and 37-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio before finishing the season with the Twins in September. Humber has a good arm, has pitched well this spring and is out of options, so he’s basically assured a spot on the Opening Day roster. With his nasty curveball, he could ultimately develop into a strong middle reliever.
R.A. Dickey
2008 Stats (w/ Mariners): 112.1 IP, 5-8, 5.21 ERA, 58 K / 51 BB, 1.56 WHIP
People seem to get excited about Dickey because he throws the knuckleball, but it’s worth noting that the guy has a 5.57 career ERA and has never finished a big-league season with an ERA under 5.09. A closer look at the numbers shows that he’s been far more reliable as a reliever than as a starter, but in general he just hasn’t been a good pitcher over the course of his career. It’s nice to have a guy like him stashed in Triple-A, and that’s the role he should serve coming out of the spring.
Jason Jones
2008 Stats (AA): 148.2 IP, 13-7, 3.33 ERA, 91 K / 49 BB, 1.31 WHIP
The Twins apparently saw something they liked in Jones since they selected him out of the Yankees’ system in the Rule 5 draft, but it’s tough to say what that was. He’s a 26-year-old with barely any experience above Double-A and thoroughly average numbers throughout the minors, and he has hardly been lights out this spring. He’ll probably either be returned to the Yankees or kept in the minors in return for a minor prospect.
Favorite: Humber
A look at the five bullpen locks, as well as the folks vying for the final two spots:
The Closer: Joe Nathan
2008 Stats: 67.2 IP, 39 SV, 1.33 ERA, 74 K / 18 BB, 0.90 WHIP
Nathan is just 55 saves shy of Rick Aguilera’s franchise-leading career total.While the rest of the Twins’ bullpen trudged through a difficult 2008 season, Nathan went ahead and put together one of his best seasons to date, posting the lowest ERA of his career while allowing less than one baserunner per inning and racking up 39 saves. Nathan has been one of the most consistent relief pitchers in baseball over the past five years and if he stays healthy, there’s little question that he’ll remain automatic in the ninth inning. If his shoulder flare from a week ago eventually turns out to be something serious, the Twins may be in trouble.
Setup Man: Jesse Crain
2008 Stats: 62.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 50 K / 24 BB, 1.37 WHIP
All in all, Crain’s 2008 campaign should be viewed as a success. Coming back from major shoulder surgery, the right-hander showed mid-90s velocity on his fastball and posted numbers fairly similar to the ones from his last year prior to the injury. Unfortunately, Crain’s success got lost in the bullpen’s struggles, and he was hit hard in some key situations. He’s looked good this spring so the hope is that he can become a reliable eight-inning guy in front of Nathan. If he can’t, the Twins lack compelling alternatives.
Lefty Specialist: Craig Breslow
2008 Stats (w/ Indians & Twins): 47 IP, 1.91 ERA, 39 K / 19 BB, 1.13 WHIP
Breslow was one of the most pleasant surprises of last season, posting a 1.67 ERA and holding opponents to a .180 batting average over 38 2/3 innings after being snagged from the Indians in May. Breslow was particularly effective against left-handers but pitched well against righties as well, making him a much better option than Dennys Reyes. Breslow has had success everywhere he’s been in the majors, but has only accumulated 75 /13 career innings and so must prove that he can repeat his performance from last year. I’m optimistic.
Middle Reliever: Matt Guerrier
2008 Stats: 76.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 59 K / 37 BB, 1.59 WHIP
In 2007, Guerrier ranked fourth in the AL with 73 appearances. In ’08, he tied for first in the league with 76 appearances. All this work seems to have caught up with Guerrier, who struggled a bit toward the end of ’07 and completely broke down late last year. Through much of his career, Guerrier has proven capable of posting solid numbers, so the Twins will have to hope that he can rebound this year and show that his arm isn’t shot.
Middle Reliever: Luis Ayala
2008 Stats: 75.2 IP, 5.71 ERA, 50 K / 24 BB, 1.45 WHIP
In and of itself, the Ayala acquisition this offseason wasn’t necessarily a bad move. The problem is that Ayala is basically in the same boat as Guerrier -- both have been successful pitchers earlier in their careers, but both pitched very poorly last year. When you’re trying to assemble an improved bullpen, relying on multiple pitchers with mediocre stuff to rebound from dreadful seasons is probably not the wisest strategy.
The final two bullpen spots are not set in stone, so here’s a quick look at the contenders and the favorites to fill each spot…
Second Lefty
Jose Mijares
2008 Stats: 10.1 IP, 0.87 ERA, 5 K / 0 BB, 0.29 WHIP
Mijares was a breath of fresh air last fall when he joined the Twins as a September call-up and shut down the competition in his first big-league stint, allowing just one run on three hits and no walks over 10 1/3 innings. Yet, anyone who has followed Mijares’ minor-league career surely worried that the 23-year-old was pitching over his head. He’d consistently struggled to find the strike zone throughout the minors, yet didn’t issue a single walk during his time with the Twins. Reality has caught up in a hurry. After getting kicked off his winter league team due to attitude problems and showing up at Twins camp out of shape, Mijares has struggled badly with his control and gotten hit hard in exhibition play. He’s a real long-shot to make the team out of spring training, but still has electric stuff and should arrive in Minnesota at some point this year.
Brian Duensing
2008 Stats (AAA): 138.2 IP, 5-11, 4.28 ERA, 77 K / 34 BB, 1.33 WHIP
With Mijares losing his grip on the bullpen role of second left-hander, Duensing has emerged as a surprise contender. He has pitched very well this spring and holds a 3.46 career ERA in the minors. I openly wondered last spring how Duensing would find a way to the major leagues onto the Twins’ big-league roster considering how far back he was in the starting pitching pecking order, but this might be his best shot. He’s earned it. He’s not a dominator, but possesses the capability to deliver quality innings in low-pressure situations.
Favorite: Duensing
Long Reliever
Philip Humber
2008 Stats (AAA): 136.1 IP, 10-8, 4.56 ERA, 106 K / 49 BB, 1.42 WHIP
Overall, Humber’s 2008 stat line looks pretty mediocre. However, he showed clear improvement over the course of the season, which is something you like to see from a young pitcher still just a couple years removed from Tommy John surgery. In April and May, Humbers strikeout rate was way down, his walk rate was way up, and he allowed opposing hitters to bat around .300 against him. But in June, his K-rate shot up, the walk rate dropped off a cliff, and the BAA dropped by about 30 points. Those trends continued through the rest of the season, and in August Humber had his best month, holding opponents to a .237 average while posting a solid 3.66 ERA and 37-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio before finishing the season with the Twins in September. Humber has a good arm, has pitched well this spring and is out of options, so he’s basically assured a spot on the Opening Day roster. With his nasty curveball, he could ultimately develop into a strong middle reliever.
R.A. Dickey
2008 Stats (w/ Mariners): 112.1 IP, 5-8, 5.21 ERA, 58 K / 51 BB, 1.56 WHIP
People seem to get excited about Dickey because he throws the knuckleball, but it’s worth noting that the guy has a 5.57 career ERA and has never finished a big-league season with an ERA under 5.09. A closer look at the numbers shows that he’s been far more reliable as a reliever than as a starter, but in general he just hasn’t been a good pitcher over the course of his career. It’s nice to have a guy like him stashed in Triple-A, and that’s the role he should serve coming out of the spring.
Jason Jones
2008 Stats (AA): 148.2 IP, 13-7, 3.33 ERA, 91 K / 49 BB, 1.31 WHIP
The Twins apparently saw something they liked in Jones since they selected him out of the Yankees’ system in the Rule 5 draft, but it’s tough to say what that was. He’s a 26-year-old with barely any experience above Double-A and thoroughly average numbers throughout the minors, and he has hardly been lights out this spring. He’ll probably either be returned to the Yankees or kept in the minors in return for a minor prospect.
Favorite: Humber
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Not Enough Bullets
Without question, Delmon Young's game-tying three-run homer against Mariano Rivera in the eighth inning of last night's game was one of the most exciting moments of the season. For that, we should be glad. Unfortunately, the Twins just couldn't find a way to convert on the opportunity afforded by Young and ended up losing to the Yankees in 12 innings.
Young's homer was unexpected to say the least. The Twins seemed downtrodden late in the game. The Yankees batters had been wearing down the pitching staff with long at-bats all night, and had opened up a three-run lead for their near-perfect closer, who was called upon in the eighth inning. Somehow, Young managed to take a Rivera pitch over the baggy in right field, tying the game and handing the incredible Rivera his first blown save of the season.
But that was seemingly all the magic the Twins had up their sleeves. They were unable to capitalize on Young's huge homer, as the offense could must only one single over the next three innings while the Yankees scored three times against Matt Guerrier in the 12th to claim victory.
Certainly, Guerrier's ugly outing continues to cast doubt on his ability to get important outs for this club. The team needed him to step up in Neshek's absence, but recently he's developed into the least effective arm on the roster. Since the All-Star break, Guerrier has posted a 10.64 ERA while allowing 20 hits -- including four homers -- over 11 innings. During that span, he has watched his ERA shoot up from 3.35 to 4.67, while his opponents' batting average has escalated from .241 to .302. It's hard to blame Guerrier for his downfall, as the situation has very likely come about from his extremely frequent use this season, but it's still unfortunate to see one of the team's few reliable bullpen arms turn into a pumpkin. Guerrier's pitches quite clearly had nothing on them last night. Bill Smith is looking more and more foolish for not finding a way to acquire Chad Bradford or LaTroy Hawkins...
But I digress. Guerrier can hardly be handed the majority of blame for this loss. The Yankees offense can't be suppressed for too long, and they were bound to get to someone as long as the Twins' offense kept extending the game by failing to mount a rally.
In spite of the result, this was still an impressive game for the Twins, who showed resiliency battling back in what seemed like a lost cause against the Evil Empire. This could have been a depressing, lackluster nine-inning loss, but instead it turned into a thrilling extra-inning affair in which the Twins simply ran out of bullets. Let's dwell on that positive, and hope the Twins can find a little more ammo to support Kevin Slowey this afternoon.
Young's homer was unexpected to say the least. The Twins seemed downtrodden late in the game. The Yankees batters had been wearing down the pitching staff with long at-bats all night, and had opened up a three-run lead for their near-perfect closer, who was called upon in the eighth inning. Somehow, Young managed to take a Rivera pitch over the baggy in right field, tying the game and handing the incredible Rivera his first blown save of the season.
But that was seemingly all the magic the Twins had up their sleeves. They were unable to capitalize on Young's huge homer, as the offense could must only one single over the next three innings while the Yankees scored three times against Matt Guerrier in the 12th to claim victory.
Certainly, Guerrier's ugly outing continues to cast doubt on his ability to get important outs for this club. The team needed him to step up in Neshek's absence, but recently he's developed into the least effective arm on the roster. Since the All-Star break, Guerrier has posted a 10.64 ERA while allowing 20 hits -- including four homers -- over 11 innings. During that span, he has watched his ERA shoot up from 3.35 to 4.67, while his opponents' batting average has escalated from .241 to .302. It's hard to blame Guerrier for his downfall, as the situation has very likely come about from his extremely frequent use this season, but it's still unfortunate to see one of the team's few reliable bullpen arms turn into a pumpkin. Guerrier's pitches quite clearly had nothing on them last night. Bill Smith is looking more and more foolish for not finding a way to acquire Chad Bradford or LaTroy Hawkins...
But I digress. Guerrier can hardly be handed the majority of blame for this loss. The Yankees offense can't be suppressed for too long, and they were bound to get to someone as long as the Twins' offense kept extending the game by failing to mount a rally.
In spite of the result, this was still an impressive game for the Twins, who showed resiliency battling back in what seemed like a lost cause against the Evil Empire. This could have been a depressing, lackluster nine-inning loss, but instead it turned into a thrilling extra-inning affair in which the Twins simply ran out of bullets. Let's dwell on that positive, and hope the Twins can find a little more ammo to support Kevin Slowey this afternoon.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Mo-Town Meltdown
With two outs in the bottom of the sixth inning last night, all was well. The Twins were up 5-0, the Tigers were stumbling along as they have throughout much of the season thus far, and it appeared that the hometown nine were on their way to an easy victory to open their series in Detroit.
Then, Gary Sheffield reached first on an infield single to third base. It was no big deal -- a weak infield hit that did nothing to indicate that starter Nick Blackburn was not in control. But Sheffield's single was followed by another from Magglio Ordonez. Then another by Miguel Cabrera. Then a double by Carlos Guillen. Ron Gardenhire pulled Blackburn and inserted Matt Guerrier to stop the bleeding, but it was no use. Edgar Renteria drove an RBI single to right, but took too big a turn at first base on the throw home and ended up being tagged out. Nevertheless, when the inning was over, the Tigers had closed their deficit to one run.
Yet, the Twins struck back in the next inning, scoring four runs of their own to increase the lead back to five at 9-4. Again, the game seemed safe. Unfortunately, the Detroit bats had just begun their awakening ceremony, and they were nowhere near done yet. In the bottom of the seventh, Ivan Rodriguez drove a liner to deep right, and while trying to make a leaping catch, Denard Span had it pop out of his glove and over the wall for a solo homer. It was that kind of night for the Twins. Guerrier got three straight ground-outs to escape the inning, but the worst was yet to come.
In the eighth inning, Guerrier and Pat Neshek combined to surrender six runs on two singles, two doubles and two triples. To say that the Tigers hitters were locked in would be an understatement; it seemed that every pitch was being driven into one of the gaps, and it certainly didn't help that the Twins' inexperienced outfielders repeatedly gave Detroit hitters extra bases by taking bad routes and letting balls roll by them to the wall.
When all was said and one, the Tigers had an 11-9 lead. The Twins, demoralized, were set down by Todd Jones in the ninth, completing the toughest loss of the season so far.
The game marked the second time that Guerrier and Neshek have been absolutely pounded, which is more than a little concerning. In six innings this season, Neshek has allowed five earned runs; he didn't allow his fifth earned run until June 24 last season. I was optimistic that Neshek would bounce back from his rough second half last year after hearing that he'd made improved his health during the offseason and after seeing him dominate in the spring, but thus far he has just looked flat. The same goes for Guerrier, who holds a 9.53 ERA after being charged with four earned runs on eight hits last night over just 1 1/3 innings of work.
Being that Guerrier and Neshek were the team's most reliable relievers outside of Joe Nathan last year, this team could be in serious trouble if these issues aren't temporary. I'm still not at the point of panic with either pitcher, because last night they had the unfortunate task of facing a Tigers lineup that was just exploding. (I said in my post yesterday that I was "a little scared" about seeing the Twins face the battered Tigers, and this is exactly what I was talking about.) Here's hoping the two relievers can get on track, because this team simply not succeed if they cannot be relied on to get outs in close games.
I have one final beef, and it is with Adam Everett (a.k.a. Adam Neverhitt). During the disastrous eighth inning last night, Everett helped out the Tigers by committing an error on a routine ground ball, bouncing a ball in the dirt in front of Justin Morneau and helping to extend and inning which the Tigers had already led off with two straight doubles. Everett has a reputation as a defensive specialist who doesn't hit much, and he's certainly lived up to the latter part of that rep with a .185/.214/.222 hitting line thus far. Yet, the error last night (probably the most painful error I have seen a Twin make this year) was his third in this young season, and he's done little to dazzle me and make me believe his defensive proficiency can offset his utter worthlessness at the plate.
There's been talk that Everett has some shoulder problems, and if that's the case, it's difficult to really hold his fielding issues against him. Yet, if he's got a bad throwing shoulder, the impetus is on Ron Gardenhire to keep him out of the lineup. If he can't field up to the best of his ability, there is absolutely no reason he should be playing. There's plenty of blame to go around in a brutal loss like the one the Twins suffered last night, but putting competent and healthy players on the field in the first place would certainly help prevent big innings like last night's eighth.
Then, Gary Sheffield reached first on an infield single to third base. It was no big deal -- a weak infield hit that did nothing to indicate that starter Nick Blackburn was not in control. But Sheffield's single was followed by another from Magglio Ordonez. Then another by Miguel Cabrera. Then a double by Carlos Guillen. Ron Gardenhire pulled Blackburn and inserted Matt Guerrier to stop the bleeding, but it was no use. Edgar Renteria drove an RBI single to right, but took too big a turn at first base on the throw home and ended up being tagged out. Nevertheless, when the inning was over, the Tigers had closed their deficit to one run.
Yet, the Twins struck back in the next inning, scoring four runs of their own to increase the lead back to five at 9-4. Again, the game seemed safe. Unfortunately, the Detroit bats had just begun their awakening ceremony, and they were nowhere near done yet. In the bottom of the seventh, Ivan Rodriguez drove a liner to deep right, and while trying to make a leaping catch, Denard Span had it pop out of his glove and over the wall for a solo homer. It was that kind of night for the Twins. Guerrier got three straight ground-outs to escape the inning, but the worst was yet to come.
In the eighth inning, Guerrier and Pat Neshek combined to surrender six runs on two singles, two doubles and two triples. To say that the Tigers hitters were locked in would be an understatement; it seemed that every pitch was being driven into one of the gaps, and it certainly didn't help that the Twins' inexperienced outfielders repeatedly gave Detroit hitters extra bases by taking bad routes and letting balls roll by them to the wall.
When all was said and one, the Tigers had an 11-9 lead. The Twins, demoralized, were set down by Todd Jones in the ninth, completing the toughest loss of the season so far.
The game marked the second time that Guerrier and Neshek have been absolutely pounded, which is more than a little concerning. In six innings this season, Neshek has allowed five earned runs; he didn't allow his fifth earned run until June 24 last season. I was optimistic that Neshek would bounce back from his rough second half last year after hearing that he'd made improved his health during the offseason and after seeing him dominate in the spring, but thus far he has just looked flat. The same goes for Guerrier, who holds a 9.53 ERA after being charged with four earned runs on eight hits last night over just 1 1/3 innings of work.
Being that Guerrier and Neshek were the team's most reliable relievers outside of Joe Nathan last year, this team could be in serious trouble if these issues aren't temporary. I'm still not at the point of panic with either pitcher, because last night they had the unfortunate task of facing a Tigers lineup that was just exploding. (I said in my post yesterday that I was "a little scared" about seeing the Twins face the battered Tigers, and this is exactly what I was talking about.) Here's hoping the two relievers can get on track, because this team simply not succeed if they cannot be relied on to get outs in close games.
I have one final beef, and it is with Adam Everett (a.k.a. Adam Neverhitt). During the disastrous eighth inning last night, Everett helped out the Tigers by committing an error on a routine ground ball, bouncing a ball in the dirt in front of Justin Morneau and helping to extend and inning which the Tigers had already led off with two straight doubles. Everett has a reputation as a defensive specialist who doesn't hit much, and he's certainly lived up to the latter part of that rep with a .185/.214/.222 hitting line thus far. Yet, the error last night (probably the most painful error I have seen a Twin make this year) was his third in this young season, and he's done little to dazzle me and make me believe his defensive proficiency can offset his utter worthlessness at the plate.
There's been talk that Everett has some shoulder problems, and if that's the case, it's difficult to really hold his fielding issues against him. Yet, if he's got a bad throwing shoulder, the impetus is on Ron Gardenhire to keep him out of the lineup. If he can't field up to the best of his ability, there is absolutely no reason he should be playing. There's plenty of blame to go around in a brutal loss like the one the Twins suffered last night, but putting competent and healthy players on the field in the first place would certainly help prevent big innings like last night's eighth.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Second-Half Performances: Trend or Mirage?
Baseball players frequently put up numbers during the second half of a season that differ dramatically from what they were able to do in the first half. This can be attributed to a variety of factors. Sometimes it is a player who is young, or returning from injury, and improving as he adjusts to the level of competition. In other instances, we find the opposite affect -- that a player's performance will decline in the latter part of the season as opponents discover his weaknesses and adjust to his style of play. And of course, in some cases, the change in production is attributable simply to luck, or to a particularly good or bad stretch of play.
Whatever the case, oftentimes we can look at a player's second half and use it as a predictor as to how he will perform in the next season. It makes intuitive sense that a player is more likely to carry his performance from the latter half a season forward, rather than the early part of the season. With this in mind, let's take a look at some Twins players who saw their performance rise or fall in the second half of 2007, and judge whether or not we can expect those second-half trends to carry over into the 2008 season.
1. PAT NESHEK, RP
First half: 42.1 IP, 1.70 ERA, 52 K/13 BB, opp .129/.205/.243
Second half: 28 IP, 4.82 ERA, 22 K/14 BB, opp .260/.347/.440
MIRAGE
Neshek's drop-off in the second half last season was dramatic, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't somewhat concerned. However, for the time being, I am inclined to label it as a mirage. Before being shut down mid-way through September, Neshek had appeared in a total of 74 games last year. That is a ton for a guy whose previous high for an entire season was 65 (set the previous year). While his innings load (70 1/3) was not that bad, it wears a pitcher down to warm up and enter games that frequently, and indeed Neshek was shelved with two weeks left because his arm had worn down. More than likely, that's why we saw his numbers drop off after the All-Star break. He enters this season with a fresh arm after a winter of rest, and hopefully Ron Gardenhire will be a little less liberal about forcing Neshek to warm up and enter games several nights in a row just to get an out or two.
2. JASON KUBEL, OF
First half: 240 AB, .250/.302/.404, 7 HR, 37 RBI
Second half: 178 AB, .303/.379/.511, 6 HR, 28 RBI
TREND
Kubel seemed out of his element for much of 2006 after missing the entire 2005 campaign in the aftermath of major knee surgery. His struggles carried over into the early part of the 2007 season, where he appeared tentative at the plate and seemed to struggle with his pitch recognition. However, even during the hard times, Kubel always made hard contact, and as he began to regain the plate discipline that he showed throughout the minors, his numbers began to improve rapidly. Prior to the All-Star break last year, Kubel's K/BB ratio was 2.6; afterward, that number dropped to 1.4. The latter number is much more in line with his minor-league K/BB ratio of 1.1, and as such it should be no surprise that his second-half hitting line was extremely similar to this career hitting line in the minors of .320/.385/.499. Expect similar things in 2008.
3. MATT GUERRIER, RP
First half: 53 IP, 1.70 ERA, 37 K/13 BB, opp .183/.246/.253
Second half: 35 IP, 3.34 ERA, 31 K/8 BB, opp .272/.318/.463
TREND
Guerrier has always been a pretty solid pitcher, but I don't think there's really any question that he was playing way over his head in the first half last year. His luck evened out in the second half, when his ERA and opponents' OPS shot way up despite the fact that he improved his strikeout rate considerably and maintained a relatively modest walk rate. Considering his past performance and his age, I think it's much more realistic to expect an ERA around 3.34 than around 1.70 from Guerrier. Fortunately, that's still very solid.
4. JUSTIN MORNEAU, 1B
First half: 322 AB, .295/.364/.581, 24 HR, 74 RBI
Second half: 268 AB, .243/.318/.384, 7 HR, 37 RBI
MIRAGE
Through the first four months or so of the 2007 season, Morneau continued to post numbers very similar to the ones he racked up during his MVP campaign in 2006. Then, in August and September, Morneau completely fell apart. After hammering 28 home runs through the end of July, Morneau managed a measly three home runs during the season's final 56 games. The drop-off in power isn't completely shocking, since we saw the same trend even during his magnificent '06 campaign (albeit to a much lesser degree), but in 2007 Morneau lacked a .342 second-half batting average to offset the power outage. His offensive numbers down the stretch last year were dreadful, and it seems completely inexplicable. As far as I'm aware, he had no major injuries, and the drop-off in production did not come along with a noticeable increase in strikeouts or decrease in walks. With all these facts in mind, I'm inclined to pass off Morneau's dud second half as a really bad two-month stretch, rather than a fundamental decline in ability. Considering the massive contract he recently signed, we'd better hope that is the case.
Whatever the case, oftentimes we can look at a player's second half and use it as a predictor as to how he will perform in the next season. It makes intuitive sense that a player is more likely to carry his performance from the latter half a season forward, rather than the early part of the season. With this in mind, let's take a look at some Twins players who saw their performance rise or fall in the second half of 2007, and judge whether or not we can expect those second-half trends to carry over into the 2008 season.
1. PAT NESHEK, RP
First half: 42.1 IP, 1.70 ERA, 52 K/13 BB, opp .129/.205/.243
Second half: 28 IP, 4.82 ERA, 22 K/14 BB, opp .260/.347/.440
MIRAGE
Neshek's drop-off in the second half last season was dramatic, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't somewhat concerned. However, for the time being, I am inclined to label it as a mirage. Before being shut down mid-way through September, Neshek had appeared in a total of 74 games last year. That is a ton for a guy whose previous high for an entire season was 65 (set the previous year). While his innings load (70 1/3) was not that bad, it wears a pitcher down to warm up and enter games that frequently, and indeed Neshek was shelved with two weeks left because his arm had worn down. More than likely, that's why we saw his numbers drop off after the All-Star break. He enters this season with a fresh arm after a winter of rest, and hopefully Ron Gardenhire will be a little less liberal about forcing Neshek to warm up and enter games several nights in a row just to get an out or two.
2. JASON KUBEL, OF
First half: 240 AB, .250/.302/.404, 7 HR, 37 RBI
Second half: 178 AB, .303/.379/.511, 6 HR, 28 RBI
TREND
Kubel seemed out of his element for much of 2006 after missing the entire 2005 campaign in the aftermath of major knee surgery. His struggles carried over into the early part of the 2007 season, where he appeared tentative at the plate and seemed to struggle with his pitch recognition. However, even during the hard times, Kubel always made hard contact, and as he began to regain the plate discipline that he showed throughout the minors, his numbers began to improve rapidly. Prior to the All-Star break last year, Kubel's K/BB ratio was 2.6; afterward, that number dropped to 1.4. The latter number is much more in line with his minor-league K/BB ratio of 1.1, and as such it should be no surprise that his second-half hitting line was extremely similar to this career hitting line in the minors of .320/.385/.499. Expect similar things in 2008.
3. MATT GUERRIER, RP
First half: 53 IP, 1.70 ERA, 37 K/13 BB, opp .183/.246/.253
Second half: 35 IP, 3.34 ERA, 31 K/8 BB, opp .272/.318/.463
TREND
Guerrier has always been a pretty solid pitcher, but I don't think there's really any question that he was playing way over his head in the first half last year. His luck evened out in the second half, when his ERA and opponents' OPS shot way up despite the fact that he improved his strikeout rate considerably and maintained a relatively modest walk rate. Considering his past performance and his age, I think it's much more realistic to expect an ERA around 3.34 than around 1.70 from Guerrier. Fortunately, that's still very solid.
4. JUSTIN MORNEAU, 1B
First half: 322 AB, .295/.364/.581, 24 HR, 74 RBI
Second half: 268 AB, .243/.318/.384, 7 HR, 37 RBI
MIRAGE
Through the first four months or so of the 2007 season, Morneau continued to post numbers very similar to the ones he racked up during his MVP campaign in 2006. Then, in August and September, Morneau completely fell apart. After hammering 28 home runs through the end of July, Morneau managed a measly three home runs during the season's final 56 games. The drop-off in power isn't completely shocking, since we saw the same trend even during his magnificent '06 campaign (albeit to a much lesser degree), but in 2007 Morneau lacked a .342 second-half batting average to offset the power outage. His offensive numbers down the stretch last year were dreadful, and it seems completely inexplicable. As far as I'm aware, he had no major injuries, and the drop-off in production did not come along with a noticeable increase in strikeouts or decrease in walks. With all these facts in mind, I'm inclined to pass off Morneau's dud second half as a really bad two-month stretch, rather than a fundamental decline in ability. Considering the massive contract he recently signed, we'd better hope that is the case.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
One-Year Deals and Cuddy in Center
Last week I wrote about the Twins' five arbitration-eligible players, noting that I felt it would be wise to lock up two of them -- Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel -- to long-term deals. In the following days, the Twins signed both of those players to contracts, but they were both one-year commitments, with Morneau's being worth $7.4 million and Kubel's worth $1.3 million. The Twins also agreed to a one-year deal with Juan Rincon that will pay him $2.475 million in 2008. That is a relatively small increase from his $2 million salary a year ago, which makes sense given his struggles.
It's disappointing to see the Twins fail to lock down Morneau and Kubel, yet understandable given the uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana and his future with the team. Plus, longer extensions could be reached with either player in the future. As La Velle noted on his blog last week, "Signing Morneau to a one-year deal doesn’t mean they can’t tear up the contract for a long-term deal. They did that exact thing a few years ago with Corey Koskie." I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen with Morneau after the Santana issue gets sorted out, although I doubt they'll look to sign Kubel to a long-term extension this offseason as much as I think it would be a good idea. I can hardly fault the Twins if they remain a little concerned about Kubel's knees.
The Twins now have two arbitration-eligible players remaining: Matt Guerrier and Michael Cuddyer. Guerrier filed for $1.15 million while the club filed for $750,000; I imagine the two sides will reach a deal right around $1 million in the near future. The gap between Cuddyer and the club is larger, as Cuddyer filed for $6.2 million -- $1.5 million more than the team's offer of $4.7 million. Last year, Cuddyer and the Twins very nearly went before an arbitrator, but reached an agreement at $3.75 million at the last second. Given the disparity between the numbers filed by the two sides this year, it seems quite possible that this case could go before an arbitrator, but the Twins are financially in a position where they can easily afford to pay Cuddyer around $5.5 million, so reaching a mid-point would make sense and save a lot of hassle for both sides.
Speaking of Cuddyer, many feathers were ruffled this weekend when Ron Gardenhire had the following quote in a Charley Walters column in the Sunday edition of the Pioneer Press:
It's disappointing to see the Twins fail to lock down Morneau and Kubel, yet understandable given the uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana and his future with the team. Plus, longer extensions could be reached with either player in the future. As La Velle noted on his blog last week, "Signing Morneau to a one-year deal doesn’t mean they can’t tear up the contract for a long-term deal. They did that exact thing a few years ago with Corey Koskie." I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen with Morneau after the Santana issue gets sorted out, although I doubt they'll look to sign Kubel to a long-term extension this offseason as much as I think it would be a good idea. I can hardly fault the Twins if they remain a little concerned about Kubel's knees.
The Twins now have two arbitration-eligible players remaining: Matt Guerrier and Michael Cuddyer. Guerrier filed for $1.15 million while the club filed for $750,000; I imagine the two sides will reach a deal right around $1 million in the near future. The gap between Cuddyer and the club is larger, as Cuddyer filed for $6.2 million -- $1.5 million more than the team's offer of $4.7 million. Last year, Cuddyer and the Twins very nearly went before an arbitrator, but reached an agreement at $3.75 million at the last second. Given the disparity between the numbers filed by the two sides this year, it seems quite possible that this case could go before an arbitrator, but the Twins are financially in a position where they can easily afford to pay Cuddyer around $5.5 million, so reaching a mid-point would make sense and save a lot of hassle for both sides.
Speaking of Cuddyer, many feathers were ruffled this weekend when Ron Gardenhire had the following quote in a Charley Walters column in the Sunday edition of the Pioneer Press:
Torii Hunter's successor in center field for the Twins could be Michael Cuddyer.The idea of Cuddyer playing center field is nothing short of horrifying, given the fact that his range is sub par even for a right fielder. However, I think the reaction to this quote has been a little over-the-top. I realize the information is coming straight from the horse's mouth, but I can't imagine that Gardenhire would ever actually pencil Cuddyer into center field. In such a scenario, it would seem that Craig Monroe would be the full-time DH. That's bad enough as it is, because there's no way Monroe should be counted on as an everyday player, but if that's truly what Gardenhire wants to do, it would make a lot more sense to DH Kubel and have Monroe play center field. That's still far from ideal, and one would hope that the Twins can acquire a legitimate center fielder before the offseason is over, or that Pridie can step up and seize the job in spring training."With Delmon Young in right and Jason Kubel in left," manager Ron Gardenhire said.
That's a consideration of Gardenhire's if minor leaguers Denard Span and Jason Pridie can't convince the manager during spring training that they're ready to succeed Hunter, who left for the Los Angeles Angels via free agency.
"I'm going to talk to Cuddy about it," Gardenhire said.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Extensions
The Twins have several players eligible for arbitration this year, and the time is nearing for the organization to decide on a course of action to take with each of these players. Generally, the way arbitration works is that each player and his agent will come up with a reasonable figure for a 2008 salary, and the team will come up with a different number they find reasonable. At this point, the Twins have three basic options: negotiate to a mid-point figure and sign the player to a one-year deal, take the case before an arbitrator who will decide which figure is more fair, or come to terms on a multi-year contract.
The Twins had six arbitration-eligible players last year, and they reached mid-point one-year agreements with four of them while locking up Nick Punto and Joe Mauer to multi-year deals. This year the Twins will have to make decisions on five arbitration-eligible players. Teams and players usually prefer to avoid going in front of the arbitrator, as the process can damage the relationship between the sides, so we'll rule out that possibility and today I'll look at each of the Twins' arbitration-eligible players on a case-by-case basis to analyze which players merit a multi-year contract (Deal), and which ones would be better served with only a one-year commitment (No Deal).
1. Justin Morneau - 1B
Many were frustrated that the Twins didn't lock up Morneau a year ago following his MVP 2006 campaign, as the team instead settled on a $4.5 million one-year deal to avoid arbitration. Even though Morneau's numbers declined in 2007, his salary is still likely to nearly double here in his second year of arbitration.
Morneau is the Twins' best slugger, and the departure of Torii Hunter makes Morneau's role on this team all the more vital. Locking him up long-term should be a high priority, and fortunately the Twins have the money to make it happen, particularly with Johan Santana's salary likely coming off the books by next year at the latest.
The Twins should do the same thing with Morneau that they did with Mauer last year, locking their young star up with a four-year contract that will buy out his first year of free agency. I'm thinking something along the lines of four years/$50 million would do the trick.
VERDICT: DEAL
2. Michael Cuddyer - RF
After a breakout campaign in 2006 that saw him post an .866 OPS (more than 100 points higher than his previous career high), Cuddyer regressed in 2007, hitting for a solid average and on-base percentage but posting a slugging percentage nearly 70 points lower than his '06 figure while hitting just 16 home runs in 144 games. Overall, Cuddyer was not a bad hitter, but the Twins need him to be a legitimate power threat, and he's been unable to do that over the course of his career with the exception of that 2006 season.
The upcoming season should be a big one for Cuddyer. Hunter is gone, and it's unclear what kind of jump Delmon Young will be able to make, leaving a strong possibility that the Twins will be relying on Cuddyer as their big right-handed stick in the lineup. If he can't produce more power than he did last year, the offense could potentially be in some trouble.
I personally believe that Cuddyer is a pretty mediocre right fielder, and losing him to free agency ultimately would not be the worst thing in the world. The Twins have a pair of good young corner outfielders in Young and Jason Kubel, both of whom will probably be better hitters than Cuddyer in the long run. If Cuddy has a big season and proves that he truly is the type of hitter he was in 2006, then perhaps the Twins can revisit the idea of an extension at a later time; for the time being, another one-year deal is probably wisest.
VERDICT: NO DEAL
3. Jason Kubel - LF
Due to unfortunate circumstances, the Twins haven't gotten much production from Kubel during his cheap serfdom years. Kubel's service clock ran while he missed the entire 2005 season with a knee injury, and continued to run for the following two seasons while he struggled to find his form. However, in the second half last year, Kubel showed the type of promise many fans have been waiting for by hitting .303/.379/.511. My feeling is that Kubel's second half in '07 is a preview of things to come.
I view Kubel as the type of hitter who can ultimately be an anchor in this lineup, be it in left field, right field, or at designated hitter. Since he has yet to piece together a great full season, his price tag will not be overly high. I think the Twins would be wise to sign him to a long-term deal that will buy out his remaining arbitration years and perhaps take him a year or two into free agency. In the end, he could wind up being a great value.
VERDICT: DEAL
4. Matt Guerrier - RP
Guerrier went from solid long reliever to premier setup man last year, posting a 2.35 ERA while frequently pitching in high-pressure situations out of the back of the Twins' bullpen. With the escalating market for relief pitching, the conventional wisdom states that the Twins would be wise to lock him up as quickly as they can. However, seeing as how this is Guerrier's first year of arbitration eligibility, and seeing as how his 2007 season came out of the blue to a large degree, I think the Twins would be wise to stick with a one-year commitment for the time being to see what they've really got in Guerrier. If he proves to be the reliable reliever he appeared to be last year, then next year the Twins should lock him up and solidify his spot as an important member of their 'pen.
VERDICT: NO DEAL
5. Juan Rincon - RP
Rincon has seen his numbers decline for three straight seasons now, culminating in a brutal 2007 campaign that saw the formerly dominant setup man post a 5.13 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Given his unstable performances, there's really no need to try and lock up Rincon beyond this year; in fact, considering that his price tag will likely be around $3 million, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins seriously gave serious consideration to non-tendering him back in December. It would be great if Rincon could recapture his magic in 2008 and return to being a key member of this bullpen, but given his recent trends, it is somewhat difficult to see that taking place.
VERDICT: NO DEAL
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