Rarely has there been a player easier for Twins fans to like than Pat Neshek. The Brooklyn Park, MN native was drafted out of Butler University by his hometown team in the sixth round in 2002. He possesses a well established level of humility and a reputation as a player whose interaction with the fans is unrivaled.
These are all traits that have worked in Neshek's favor, but I think his most endearing characteristic is his uniqueness. Never before have we seen a delivery quite like his, and when he arrived on the major-league scene in 2006 none of us knew quite what to make of it. Neither did big-league hitters, apparently, as Neshek flat-out dominated, debuting in July and posting a 2.19 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and astounding 53-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 37 innings despite working with a fastball that barely edged 90 mph.
For the first half of the next season, Neshek continued to baffle AL hitters with his quirky arm action, delivering pitches from a side-arm slot and following through by hopping toward home plate on his toes (a style he'd adapted after suffering an arm injury in high school).
From his MLB debut on July 7, 2006 through July 7, 2007, Neshek accumulated one full season of pure relief dominance, hurling 79 innings with a 1.94 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 104-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It doesn't get much better than that, and it was startling to see from Neshek, a likable hometown kid who lacked the bulldog mentality, standout velocity or gravity-bending stuff that typifies elite late-inning relievers.
Unfortunately, whatever magic the right-hander was employing for that first year quickly dissipated. Neshek faded in the second half of the '07 season and has never really recaptured his electricity. Since the one-year anniversary of his first outing in the bigs, Neshek has a 4.79 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 47-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 50 2/3 innings.
As spectacular as he was that first year, Neshek walked a fine line with his lack of overpowering stuff and his reliance on a unique release. Eventually, the novelty of his delivery would wear off and big-league hitters would start to adapt; moreover, he needed every last tick of velocity for his approach to work and since suffering a torn ligament in 2008 that required Tommy John surgery, that consistent 90-mph heat simply hasn't been there.
As someone who greatly admires Neshek as a person and loves watching him pitch when he's on top of his game, I was fiercely hoping to see shades of his spellbinding rookie form this spring. Unfortunately, when I had the opportunity to watch him pitch an inning in Ft. Myers, I just didn't see it. His velocity remained stuck in the mid-80s; his once frisbee-like slider continued to lack its previous bite.
Apparently the Twins saw the same thing as they watched Neshek pitch this spring. They placed the righty on waivers on Friday, and this afternoon he was claimed by the Padres. Considering the Twins' huge questions in the bullpen and Neshek's minimal $625,000 salary this year, the move says a lot about the organization's feelings about the side-armer. If they don't make a move to fill his open spot on the 40-man roster (Bill Smith said in the article linked above that it could remain open for "two weeks or six months"), waiving Neshek would really signal a complete and total lack of confidence.
I'll miss Neshek, but it's important to note that despite his amazing performance in the year after he made his major-league debut, he simply hasn't been the same pitcher since. I hope he can resurrect his career in the National League, where fewer hitters have been exposed to his delivery and he'll move further and further away from surgery, but for the time being I'm going to have to trust the front office's evaluation that Neshek was not ready to contribute as a quality member of the Twins' bullpen this season.
The question is, where are those guys going to come from? Neshek, one of the players Bill Smith labeled a "wild card" for a rebuilt bullpen during the offseason, is now gone, and a number of other relief candidates have failed to impress this spring.
While I can't find it in myself to criticize the Twins' brass over letting go of a 30-year-old pitcher who hasn't gotten results in the majors for over three years, Neshek's release does nothing to alleviate my concerns about an increasingly dire bullpen situation that seems to have been completely ignored during the offseason.
Showing posts with label neshek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label neshek. Show all posts
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Bullpen Dreams
One of the most annoying parts of the offseason is that we, as fans, are often given so little to work with that we are forced to dissect and interpret quotes that -- in their original context -- might bear very little meaning.
When asked about the state of the Twins' bullpen yesterday, Bill Smith gave a rather unsettling answer:
I don't mean to draw any unflattering Tim Brewster comparisons, but in the above quote Smith sounds like a used car salesman. Who does he think he's fooling? Pat Neshek and Glen Perkins spent most of 2010 in Triple-A because they were both completely ineffective and neither has proven to be fully recovered from their latest injuries. A "competitive" Joe Nathan is not exactly the jolt needed for a bullpen containing nothing but question marks past Matt Capps and Jose Mijares. The unit, as it currently stands, is exceedingly thin even if Nathan returns at full strength. And as Neshek's 2010 campaign proved, that first year back from Tommy John surgery can bring its share of tribulations.
There's no Danny Valencia caliber player ready to step into the Twins' bullpen and make us all forget about Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier. It's possible that Anthony Slama -- a strikeout machine with questionable control -- could make a positive impact, but the organization has never seemed all that high on him and it's telling that Smith would rather mention Perkins, who has compiled a 5.71 ERA between the majors and minors over the past two seasons. Beyond Slama, the Twins have zero relief prospects in the organization with the kind of numbers that would indicate they're ready to step in and handle late-inning duties for the big-league club.
I'm sure Smith must realize the gravity of the team's bullpen situation, so most likely I'm just over-analyzing a harmless early December quote. Still, for the sake of my blood pressure Bill, please refrain from making similar comments in the future.
When asked about the state of the Twins' bullpen yesterday, Bill Smith gave a rather unsettling answer:
"Sometimes your best bet, rather than go out and get a third baseman, your best bet is to bring up Valencia and give him a chance," Smith said. "And we always like to do that. We love to bring players out of our system if they can help us win."My hope is that this is one of those offhand remarks that doesn't accurately reflect the mindset of the front office. Because if Smith and Co. are remotely comfortable with the bullpen pieces they currently have in place, they're out of their minds.
He added, "Perkins and Neshek and Nathan are three guys that would be great wild cards for us, because Perkins and Neshek pitched all season in Triple-A, or most of the season in Triple-A, and Nathan not at all."
"So if we can get Nathan back, competitive, to anywhere close to where he was, if we can get Neshek back to where he was several years ago -- and this would be the second year after Tommy John surgery. And Perkins threw the ball well in September, and had some stints of throwing the ball very well in Rochester."
I don't mean to draw any unflattering Tim Brewster comparisons, but in the above quote Smith sounds like a used car salesman. Who does he think he's fooling? Pat Neshek and Glen Perkins spent most of 2010 in Triple-A because they were both completely ineffective and neither has proven to be fully recovered from their latest injuries. A "competitive" Joe Nathan is not exactly the jolt needed for a bullpen containing nothing but question marks past Matt Capps and Jose Mijares. The unit, as it currently stands, is exceedingly thin even if Nathan returns at full strength. And as Neshek's 2010 campaign proved, that first year back from Tommy John surgery can bring its share of tribulations.
There's no Danny Valencia caliber player ready to step into the Twins' bullpen and make us all forget about Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier. It's possible that Anthony Slama -- a strikeout machine with questionable control -- could make a positive impact, but the organization has never seemed all that high on him and it's telling that Smith would rather mention Perkins, who has compiled a 5.71 ERA between the majors and minors over the past two seasons. Beyond Slama, the Twins have zero relief prospects in the organization with the kind of numbers that would indicate they're ready to step in and handle late-inning duties for the big-league club.
I'm sure Smith must realize the gravity of the team's bullpen situation, so most likely I'm just over-analyzing a harmless early December quote. Still, for the sake of my blood pressure Bill, please refrain from making similar comments in the future.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Quick Thoughts on Manship and Neshek
Our friend Phil Mackey had a bunch of interesting news tidbits within his latest filing on the ESPN 1500 SportsWire (which you should have bookmarked by now). Most intriguing among these are reports that Jeff Manship seems to be in line to start tomorrow and that Pat Neshek may soon be demoted to Rochester.
Manship's start tomorrow would come in place of Nick Blackburn, who has left the team to deal with a family matter. Manship, who posted a 5.68 ERA over 11 appearances for the Twins last season, may seem like a solid fill-in option based on his 3.48 ERA in four starts for the Red Wings this year, but a deeper look reveals that he hasn't been on top of his game.
While he's done a decent job of keeping runs off the board, Manship has yielded a .316 batting average to Triple-A hitters thus far. He's also getting more outs through the air than on the ground and he's already surrendered four home runs in 20 2/3 innings. Those are bad signs for a guy whose trademark coming up through the minors has been keeping the ball on the ground.
The more suitable candidate to make a spot start for the Twins would be Brian Duensing, but he's not stretched out since he's been pitching out of the bullpen. This is the downside to having your sixth starter working in a relief role; when needed in a pinch, he's not available. The Twins will have to hope that Manship can remain steady and get the job done tomorrow.
I was a bit surprised to read that the club is leaning toward sending Neshek to the minors, given how solid he'd looked over his first handful of appearances, but the move would not be unmerited. Neshek's availability as of late has been limited due to a finger injury and he couldn't throw strikes in his most recent appearance. More worrisome is that his velocity has dropped noticeably; the right-hander is averaging just 86.8 MPH with his fastball and he's showing significantly less faith in the pitch than in the past, having thrown it just 34 percent of the time compared to 45 percent last year and 51 percent in 2007.
A drop in a velocity and an unwillingness to lean on the fastball aren't uncommon traits for a pitcher fresh off Tommy John surgery, but if Neshek isn't at full strength the Twins would be wise to swap him with someone who can be relied upon right now, given that Jesse Crain has looked terrible. Maybe the team will finally give Anthony Slama a look, as the righty has continued to dominate by posting a 1.26 ERA and 18-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding opponents to a .109 average over 14 1/3 innings in Rochester this year.
Manship's start tomorrow would come in place of Nick Blackburn, who has left the team to deal with a family matter. Manship, who posted a 5.68 ERA over 11 appearances for the Twins last season, may seem like a solid fill-in option based on his 3.48 ERA in four starts for the Red Wings this year, but a deeper look reveals that he hasn't been on top of his game.
While he's done a decent job of keeping runs off the board, Manship has yielded a .316 batting average to Triple-A hitters thus far. He's also getting more outs through the air than on the ground and he's already surrendered four home runs in 20 2/3 innings. Those are bad signs for a guy whose trademark coming up through the minors has been keeping the ball on the ground.
The more suitable candidate to make a spot start for the Twins would be Brian Duensing, but he's not stretched out since he's been pitching out of the bullpen. This is the downside to having your sixth starter working in a relief role; when needed in a pinch, he's not available. The Twins will have to hope that Manship can remain steady and get the job done tomorrow.
I was a bit surprised to read that the club is leaning toward sending Neshek to the minors, given how solid he'd looked over his first handful of appearances, but the move would not be unmerited. Neshek's availability as of late has been limited due to a finger injury and he couldn't throw strikes in his most recent appearance. More worrisome is that his velocity has dropped noticeably; the right-hander is averaging just 86.8 MPH with his fastball and he's showing significantly less faith in the pitch than in the past, having thrown it just 34 percent of the time compared to 45 percent last year and 51 percent in 2007.
A drop in a velocity and an unwillingness to lean on the fastball aren't uncommon traits for a pitcher fresh off Tommy John surgery, but if Neshek isn't at full strength the Twins would be wise to swap him with someone who can be relied upon right now, given that Jesse Crain has looked terrible. Maybe the team will finally give Anthony Slama a look, as the righty has continued to dominate by posting a 1.26 ERA and 18-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding opponents to a .109 average over 14 1/3 innings in Rochester this year.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Musing on Spring Performances
The Twins will wrap up their spring schedule down in Florida this week before heading back north and playing a pair of exhibition games against the Cardinals at Target Field over the weekend. This will be followed by a day off on Sunday, with the regular season officially getting underway in Los Angeles on Monday.
Between being out of town and breaking down the entire team position-by-position over the past few weeks, I haven't provided much commentary on what's happening in Grapefruit League play. So today, with the obvious caveat that spring training numbers are to be taken with a half of a grain of salt, I'll peruse some spring training performances and see if any useful insights can be gleaned.
* Yesterday I put out a tweet pointing out that Delmon Young currently leads the team with six extra-base hits this spring, which is an encouraging sign given that many are hoping that the left fielder can turn a corner and start hitting for power here in his age 24 season. As Aaron Gleeman quickly pointed out to me after I posted the tweet, though, Young also hit .361 with a .500 slugging percentage last spring before struggling once the regular season got underway.
No one doubts Young's innate ability, so it shouldn't come as any real surprise that he's been able to succeed in spring training against pitchers who are either rusty, not trying their hardest, not major-league caliber, or some combination of those things.
Ultimately, people are going to see what they want to see in the enigmatic outfielder. Is Young's strong spring a continuation of the improvement he showed late last year during the team's stretch run, or is it just another short-term fluke that won't translate into anything meaningful when the season starts? Unfortunately, I'd tend to lean toward the latter, but I'd love to be wrong.
* Jacque Jones won't be making the team out of spring training, but it's still tough not to be impressed with what he was able to accomplish at the Twins' camp. Given how long he'd been out of the majors and how dreadful the reports I'd received on him from various sources were, I half expected him to be unable to swing a bat. But Jones could certainly swing, as evidenced by his .364/.417/.625 hitting line. Unless another team swoops in to claim him, Jones will open the season in Rochester where he'll be just a phone call away from rejoining the Twins at Target Field. I'd love to see that happen.
* There were two key players I had serious concerns about entering spring training this year, based on injuries that had ended their 2009 seasons. One was Kevin Slowey and the other was Justin Morneau. Slowey has helped to ease my concerns by allowing just four runs on 15 hits over 20 innings while maintaining his pinpoint command, and while Morneau has batted just .184, he has homered twice and ripped three doubles. Since back injuries can really sap a player's power, that's the most important sign to me.
* Team leader in walks this spring? It's a tie between Denard Span and Orlando Hudson, who will be filling the first and second spots in the lineup this year. That's nice to see.
* At the outset of spring training, I had little doubt that Pat Neshek would be opening the season in the minors. He hadn't pitched in a major-league game since May of 2008 and spent all of last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, which would seemingly be an especially big deal for a pitcher with a quirky delivery like his. Yet, Neshek has been terrific this spring. In eight appearances, he has allowed only two runs on five hits over 8 2/3 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. Suddenly, Neshek is a very real candidate to sneak into a bullpen that is now somewhat lacking in right-handed power arms, and he could easily insert himself into the closer conversation.
* The fifth spot in the Twins' rotation is still being framed as an open competition between Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing, but it seems pretty clear who Ron Gardenhire has in mind for the role. Four of Liriano's five appearances this spring have been starts, whereas Duensing has entered as a reliever in three of his four outings. Of course, Liriano also has the gaudy numbers backing him up; in 14 innings, he has fanned 22 batters while issuing only two walks. I'm withholding excitement on Liri-- OK, I can't even say it. I'm really, really excited about Liriano this year.
Between being out of town and breaking down the entire team position-by-position over the past few weeks, I haven't provided much commentary on what's happening in Grapefruit League play. So today, with the obvious caveat that spring training numbers are to be taken with a half of a grain of salt, I'll peruse some spring training performances and see if any useful insights can be gleaned.
* Yesterday I put out a tweet pointing out that Delmon Young currently leads the team with six extra-base hits this spring, which is an encouraging sign given that many are hoping that the left fielder can turn a corner and start hitting for power here in his age 24 season. As Aaron Gleeman quickly pointed out to me after I posted the tweet, though, Young also hit .361 with a .500 slugging percentage last spring before struggling once the regular season got underway.
No one doubts Young's innate ability, so it shouldn't come as any real surprise that he's been able to succeed in spring training against pitchers who are either rusty, not trying their hardest, not major-league caliber, or some combination of those things.
Ultimately, people are going to see what they want to see in the enigmatic outfielder. Is Young's strong spring a continuation of the improvement he showed late last year during the team's stretch run, or is it just another short-term fluke that won't translate into anything meaningful when the season starts? Unfortunately, I'd tend to lean toward the latter, but I'd love to be wrong.
* Jacque Jones won't be making the team out of spring training, but it's still tough not to be impressed with what he was able to accomplish at the Twins' camp. Given how long he'd been out of the majors and how dreadful the reports I'd received on him from various sources were, I half expected him to be unable to swing a bat. But Jones could certainly swing, as evidenced by his .364/.417/.625 hitting line. Unless another team swoops in to claim him, Jones will open the season in Rochester where he'll be just a phone call away from rejoining the Twins at Target Field. I'd love to see that happen.
* There were two key players I had serious concerns about entering spring training this year, based on injuries that had ended their 2009 seasons. One was Kevin Slowey and the other was Justin Morneau. Slowey has helped to ease my concerns by allowing just four runs on 15 hits over 20 innings while maintaining his pinpoint command, and while Morneau has batted just .184, he has homered twice and ripped three doubles. Since back injuries can really sap a player's power, that's the most important sign to me.
* Team leader in walks this spring? It's a tie between Denard Span and Orlando Hudson, who will be filling the first and second spots in the lineup this year. That's nice to see.
* At the outset of spring training, I had little doubt that Pat Neshek would be opening the season in the minors. He hadn't pitched in a major-league game since May of 2008 and spent all of last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, which would seemingly be an especially big deal for a pitcher with a quirky delivery like his. Yet, Neshek has been terrific this spring. In eight appearances, he has allowed only two runs on five hits over 8 2/3 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. Suddenly, Neshek is a very real candidate to sneak into a bullpen that is now somewhat lacking in right-handed power arms, and he could easily insert himself into the closer conversation.
* The fifth spot in the Twins' rotation is still being framed as an open competition between Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing, but it seems pretty clear who Ron Gardenhire has in mind for the role. Four of Liriano's five appearances this spring have been starts, whereas Duensing has entered as a reliever in three of his four outings. Of course, Liriano also has the gaudy numbers backing him up; in 14 innings, he has fanned 22 batters while issuing only two walks. I'm withholding excitement on Liri-- OK, I can't even say it. I'm really, really excited about Liriano this year.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Lost Hope
When news arose on Monday that Pat Neshek would be undergoing an MRI exam of his right elbow after experiencing some discomfort while throwing last week, many Twins fans immediately thought the worst. It seems we've seen this scenario play out a hundred times -- a pitcher tries to rehab a partially damaged ligament only to eventually suffer a setback and learn that surgery is unavoidable. We saw it happen in 2006 with Francisco Liriano, and that's likely why so many fans were unhappy with the team's decision to once again take the rest-and-rehab approach after Neshek originally injured the elbow back in May.
As it turns out, those fears were well-founded. Neshek's imaging scan revealed a fully torn ligament, and the team announced yesterday that he will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire 2009 season.
This news will undoubtedly raise some ire among Twins fans. There were plenty out there who vocally opined that the team should bite the bullet and have Neshek go through surgery immediately; indeed, had this been their course of action the reliever probably would have been able to return sometime around June or July of next year rather than sitting out the entire campaign.
The finger-pointing, though, is ultimately pointless. There's little doubt that both the player and the team strongly preferred to avoid surgery if at all possible, and as Joe Christensen made sure to note in his blog post on the news, when Neshek first suffered the injury "he received a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews, who agreed with the Twins recommendation to rehab the injury, instead of having surgery."
The news that Neshek will be lost for all of next year is gravely disappointing for several reasons. For one thing, he's a great guy and you hate to see anyone as nice, outgoing and helpful to the blogging community go through such an ordeal. Furthermore, he's a great reliever and his return was going to be a key aspect of rebuilding a bullpen that was downright awful this season. Knowing without a doubt that he'll be unable to step in and reclaim that spot as a dominating setup man in front of Joe Nathan clouds matters considerably.
Even without Neshek, there's a chance that the Twins can still field an adequate bullpen with the guys they already have: Nathan, Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, Craig Breslow, Matt Guerrier, Philip Humber and Boof Bonser. The odds of all those guys performing well aren't terribly high though, especially considering how poorly many of them produced during this past season. I held a lot of hope that Neshek could return and provide a significant jolt to the relief corps. Losing that hope is a tough blow.
As it turns out, those fears were well-founded. Neshek's imaging scan revealed a fully torn ligament, and the team announced yesterday that he will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire 2009 season.
This news will undoubtedly raise some ire among Twins fans. There were plenty out there who vocally opined that the team should bite the bullet and have Neshek go through surgery immediately; indeed, had this been their course of action the reliever probably would have been able to return sometime around June or July of next year rather than sitting out the entire campaign.
The finger-pointing, though, is ultimately pointless. There's little doubt that both the player and the team strongly preferred to avoid surgery if at all possible, and as Joe Christensen made sure to note in his blog post on the news, when Neshek first suffered the injury "he received a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews, who agreed with the Twins recommendation to rehab the injury, instead of having surgery."
The news that Neshek will be lost for all of next year is gravely disappointing for several reasons. For one thing, he's a great guy and you hate to see anyone as nice, outgoing and helpful to the blogging community go through such an ordeal. Furthermore, he's a great reliever and his return was going to be a key aspect of rebuilding a bullpen that was downright awful this season. Knowing without a doubt that he'll be unable to step in and reclaim that spot as a dominating setup man in front of Joe Nathan clouds matters considerably.
Even without Neshek, there's a chance that the Twins can still field an adequate bullpen with the guys they already have: Nathan, Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, Craig Breslow, Matt Guerrier, Philip Humber and Boof Bonser. The odds of all those guys performing well aren't terribly high though, especially considering how poorly many of them produced during this past season. I held a lot of hope that Neshek could return and provide a significant jolt to the relief corps. Losing that hope is a tough blow.
Friday, May 09, 2008
When It Rains, It Pours
It's been a roller-coaster of a week for the Twins. During the weekend, they pulled off an impressive sweep over the high-powered Tigers at the Metrodome, extending a win streak to five games and launching themselves into first place in the division. Then, on Tuesday, they played their worst game of the season in Chicago, coming within two outs of being no-hit by Gavin Floyd and falling 7-1. They came back the next night with a phenomenal effort -- a 13-1 victory over the White Sox highlighted by a Carlos Gomez cycle and nine unexpectedly wonderful innings from Livan Hernandez. Last week, the Twins-coaster took a violent dive. The 6-2 Twins loss was tough to take, but it was nothing compared to the cringing pain undoubtedly felt by each fan when Pat Neshek walked off the field in the eighth inning with an elbow injury.
I wasn't watching the game when Neshek's injury occurred (you know, last week of classes), but reports indicate that he felt a pop, and while chatting later in the evening with Aaron Gleeman, he mentioned to me that Neshek's expression was "more like disgust than pain." Those signs all point to Neshek likely being out for a very long time, which is bad news for this baseball team. After a rough start to the season, Neshek was settling in and starting to look more like the dominant force he has been for most of the past two seasons; he was almost certainly the team's best reliever behind Joe Nathan.
As much as I'm a huge fan of Neshek, I've always viewed him as something of a ticking time bomb. His delivery just seemed so dangerous to me -- he throws almost completely with his arm and really snaps his elbow. This is interesting, because he actually started throwing in this style as a result of another injury suffered in his high school days. He's gotten by just fine on his new delivery up until now, but yesterday's sickening "pop" has the unfortunate makings of a career changer. Whether the elbow injury came about as a result of his mechanics or was simply a freak injury is awfully difficult to say, but for the time being I'll just cross my fingers and hope that his season isn't over.
Neshek is almost assuredly headed for the disabled list, so it will be interesting to see who the Twins bring up. There are a few options in Rochester, ranging from Ricky Barrett to Carmen Cali to Mariano Gomez. Cali is far from exciting, but Barrett and Gomez are both pitching well this year, and either one would potentially provide the Twins with a solid additional lefty out of the pen to complement Dennys Reyes. It's also possible that Glen Perkins could wind up in the bullpen upon Scott Baker's return from the DL, in the event that Perkins has some success during his upcoming stint in the Twins rotation.
Neshek's absence will mean that another right-handed reliever is going to need to step up and become a contributor in the late innings. Matt Guerrier, who has brought his ERA down from 9.53 to 3.44 over his past eight appearances, is certainly the most likely candidate considering his success last year in the late-innings role. But it would sure be nice if a guy like Juan Rincon or Jesse Crain could raise their game and become a reliable option.
The Twins bullpen suffered a major blow yesterday. Neshek's injury hits hard because I know him to be a really nice guy, and of course he is a member of the blogosphere. I hope that the injury is less serious than it first appeared and that he's able to rejoin the team at some point this summer. And while he's gone, I hope the bullpen can hang together, because from the looks of it, late leads for the Twins just became a lot less safe.
I wasn't watching the game when Neshek's injury occurred (you know, last week of classes), but reports indicate that he felt a pop, and while chatting later in the evening with Aaron Gleeman, he mentioned to me that Neshek's expression was "more like disgust than pain." Those signs all point to Neshek likely being out for a very long time, which is bad news for this baseball team. After a rough start to the season, Neshek was settling in and starting to look more like the dominant force he has been for most of the past two seasons; he was almost certainly the team's best reliever behind Joe Nathan.
As much as I'm a huge fan of Neshek, I've always viewed him as something of a ticking time bomb. His delivery just seemed so dangerous to me -- he throws almost completely with his arm and really snaps his elbow. This is interesting, because he actually started throwing in this style as a result of another injury suffered in his high school days. He's gotten by just fine on his new delivery up until now, but yesterday's sickening "pop" has the unfortunate makings of a career changer. Whether the elbow injury came about as a result of his mechanics or was simply a freak injury is awfully difficult to say, but for the time being I'll just cross my fingers and hope that his season isn't over.
Neshek is almost assuredly headed for the disabled list, so it will be interesting to see who the Twins bring up. There are a few options in Rochester, ranging from Ricky Barrett to Carmen Cali to Mariano Gomez. Cali is far from exciting, but Barrett and Gomez are both pitching well this year, and either one would potentially provide the Twins with a solid additional lefty out of the pen to complement Dennys Reyes. It's also possible that Glen Perkins could wind up in the bullpen upon Scott Baker's return from the DL, in the event that Perkins has some success during his upcoming stint in the Twins rotation.
Neshek's absence will mean that another right-handed reliever is going to need to step up and become a contributor in the late innings. Matt Guerrier, who has brought his ERA down from 9.53 to 3.44 over his past eight appearances, is certainly the most likely candidate considering his success last year in the late-innings role. But it would sure be nice if a guy like Juan Rincon or Jesse Crain could raise their game and become a reliable option.
The Twins bullpen suffered a major blow yesterday. Neshek's injury hits hard because I know him to be a really nice guy, and of course he is a member of the blogosphere. I hope that the injury is less serious than it first appeared and that he's able to rejoin the team at some point this summer. And while he's gone, I hope the bullpen can hang together, because from the looks of it, late leads for the Twins just became a lot less safe.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Mo-Town Meltdown
With two outs in the bottom of the sixth inning last night, all was well. The Twins were up 5-0, the Tigers were stumbling along as they have throughout much of the season thus far, and it appeared that the hometown nine were on their way to an easy victory to open their series in Detroit.
Then, Gary Sheffield reached first on an infield single to third base. It was no big deal -- a weak infield hit that did nothing to indicate that starter Nick Blackburn was not in control. But Sheffield's single was followed by another from Magglio Ordonez. Then another by Miguel Cabrera. Then a double by Carlos Guillen. Ron Gardenhire pulled Blackburn and inserted Matt Guerrier to stop the bleeding, but it was no use. Edgar Renteria drove an RBI single to right, but took too big a turn at first base on the throw home and ended up being tagged out. Nevertheless, when the inning was over, the Tigers had closed their deficit to one run.
Yet, the Twins struck back in the next inning, scoring four runs of their own to increase the lead back to five at 9-4. Again, the game seemed safe. Unfortunately, the Detroit bats had just begun their awakening ceremony, and they were nowhere near done yet. In the bottom of the seventh, Ivan Rodriguez drove a liner to deep right, and while trying to make a leaping catch, Denard Span had it pop out of his glove and over the wall for a solo homer. It was that kind of night for the Twins. Guerrier got three straight ground-outs to escape the inning, but the worst was yet to come.
In the eighth inning, Guerrier and Pat Neshek combined to surrender six runs on two singles, two doubles and two triples. To say that the Tigers hitters were locked in would be an understatement; it seemed that every pitch was being driven into one of the gaps, and it certainly didn't help that the Twins' inexperienced outfielders repeatedly gave Detroit hitters extra bases by taking bad routes and letting balls roll by them to the wall.
When all was said and one, the Tigers had an 11-9 lead. The Twins, demoralized, were set down by Todd Jones in the ninth, completing the toughest loss of the season so far.
The game marked the second time that Guerrier and Neshek have been absolutely pounded, which is more than a little concerning. In six innings this season, Neshek has allowed five earned runs; he didn't allow his fifth earned run until June 24 last season. I was optimistic that Neshek would bounce back from his rough second half last year after hearing that he'd made improved his health during the offseason and after seeing him dominate in the spring, but thus far he has just looked flat. The same goes for Guerrier, who holds a 9.53 ERA after being charged with four earned runs on eight hits last night over just 1 1/3 innings of work.
Being that Guerrier and Neshek were the team's most reliable relievers outside of Joe Nathan last year, this team could be in serious trouble if these issues aren't temporary. I'm still not at the point of panic with either pitcher, because last night they had the unfortunate task of facing a Tigers lineup that was just exploding. (I said in my post yesterday that I was "a little scared" about seeing the Twins face the battered Tigers, and this is exactly what I was talking about.) Here's hoping the two relievers can get on track, because this team simply not succeed if they cannot be relied on to get outs in close games.
I have one final beef, and it is with Adam Everett (a.k.a. Adam Neverhitt). During the disastrous eighth inning last night, Everett helped out the Tigers by committing an error on a routine ground ball, bouncing a ball in the dirt in front of Justin Morneau and helping to extend and inning which the Tigers had already led off with two straight doubles. Everett has a reputation as a defensive specialist who doesn't hit much, and he's certainly lived up to the latter part of that rep with a .185/.214/.222 hitting line thus far. Yet, the error last night (probably the most painful error I have seen a Twin make this year) was his third in this young season, and he's done little to dazzle me and make me believe his defensive proficiency can offset his utter worthlessness at the plate.
There's been talk that Everett has some shoulder problems, and if that's the case, it's difficult to really hold his fielding issues against him. Yet, if he's got a bad throwing shoulder, the impetus is on Ron Gardenhire to keep him out of the lineup. If he can't field up to the best of his ability, there is absolutely no reason he should be playing. There's plenty of blame to go around in a brutal loss like the one the Twins suffered last night, but putting competent and healthy players on the field in the first place would certainly help prevent big innings like last night's eighth.
Then, Gary Sheffield reached first on an infield single to third base. It was no big deal -- a weak infield hit that did nothing to indicate that starter Nick Blackburn was not in control. But Sheffield's single was followed by another from Magglio Ordonez. Then another by Miguel Cabrera. Then a double by Carlos Guillen. Ron Gardenhire pulled Blackburn and inserted Matt Guerrier to stop the bleeding, but it was no use. Edgar Renteria drove an RBI single to right, but took too big a turn at first base on the throw home and ended up being tagged out. Nevertheless, when the inning was over, the Tigers had closed their deficit to one run.
Yet, the Twins struck back in the next inning, scoring four runs of their own to increase the lead back to five at 9-4. Again, the game seemed safe. Unfortunately, the Detroit bats had just begun their awakening ceremony, and they were nowhere near done yet. In the bottom of the seventh, Ivan Rodriguez drove a liner to deep right, and while trying to make a leaping catch, Denard Span had it pop out of his glove and over the wall for a solo homer. It was that kind of night for the Twins. Guerrier got three straight ground-outs to escape the inning, but the worst was yet to come.
In the eighth inning, Guerrier and Pat Neshek combined to surrender six runs on two singles, two doubles and two triples. To say that the Tigers hitters were locked in would be an understatement; it seemed that every pitch was being driven into one of the gaps, and it certainly didn't help that the Twins' inexperienced outfielders repeatedly gave Detroit hitters extra bases by taking bad routes and letting balls roll by them to the wall.
When all was said and one, the Tigers had an 11-9 lead. The Twins, demoralized, were set down by Todd Jones in the ninth, completing the toughest loss of the season so far.
The game marked the second time that Guerrier and Neshek have been absolutely pounded, which is more than a little concerning. In six innings this season, Neshek has allowed five earned runs; he didn't allow his fifth earned run until June 24 last season. I was optimistic that Neshek would bounce back from his rough second half last year after hearing that he'd made improved his health during the offseason and after seeing him dominate in the spring, but thus far he has just looked flat. The same goes for Guerrier, who holds a 9.53 ERA after being charged with four earned runs on eight hits last night over just 1 1/3 innings of work.
Being that Guerrier and Neshek were the team's most reliable relievers outside of Joe Nathan last year, this team could be in serious trouble if these issues aren't temporary. I'm still not at the point of panic with either pitcher, because last night they had the unfortunate task of facing a Tigers lineup that was just exploding. (I said in my post yesterday that I was "a little scared" about seeing the Twins face the battered Tigers, and this is exactly what I was talking about.) Here's hoping the two relievers can get on track, because this team simply not succeed if they cannot be relied on to get outs in close games.
I have one final beef, and it is with Adam Everett (a.k.a. Adam Neverhitt). During the disastrous eighth inning last night, Everett helped out the Tigers by committing an error on a routine ground ball, bouncing a ball in the dirt in front of Justin Morneau and helping to extend and inning which the Tigers had already led off with two straight doubles. Everett has a reputation as a defensive specialist who doesn't hit much, and he's certainly lived up to the latter part of that rep with a .185/.214/.222 hitting line thus far. Yet, the error last night (probably the most painful error I have seen a Twin make this year) was his third in this young season, and he's done little to dazzle me and make me believe his defensive proficiency can offset his utter worthlessness at the plate.
There's been talk that Everett has some shoulder problems, and if that's the case, it's difficult to really hold his fielding issues against him. Yet, if he's got a bad throwing shoulder, the impetus is on Ron Gardenhire to keep him out of the lineup. If he can't field up to the best of his ability, there is absolutely no reason he should be playing. There's plenty of blame to go around in a brutal loss like the one the Twins suffered last night, but putting competent and healthy players on the field in the first place would certainly help prevent big innings like last night's eighth.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Second-Half Performances: Trend or Mirage?
Baseball players frequently put up numbers during the second half of a season that differ dramatically from what they were able to do in the first half. This can be attributed to a variety of factors. Sometimes it is a player who is young, or returning from injury, and improving as he adjusts to the level of competition. In other instances, we find the opposite affect -- that a player's performance will decline in the latter part of the season as opponents discover his weaknesses and adjust to his style of play. And of course, in some cases, the change in production is attributable simply to luck, or to a particularly good or bad stretch of play.
Whatever the case, oftentimes we can look at a player's second half and use it as a predictor as to how he will perform in the next season. It makes intuitive sense that a player is more likely to carry his performance from the latter half a season forward, rather than the early part of the season. With this in mind, let's take a look at some Twins players who saw their performance rise or fall in the second half of 2007, and judge whether or not we can expect those second-half trends to carry over into the 2008 season.
1. PAT NESHEK, RP
First half: 42.1 IP, 1.70 ERA, 52 K/13 BB, opp .129/.205/.243
Second half: 28 IP, 4.82 ERA, 22 K/14 BB, opp .260/.347/.440
MIRAGE
Neshek's drop-off in the second half last season was dramatic, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't somewhat concerned. However, for the time being, I am inclined to label it as a mirage. Before being shut down mid-way through September, Neshek had appeared in a total of 74 games last year. That is a ton for a guy whose previous high for an entire season was 65 (set the previous year). While his innings load (70 1/3) was not that bad, it wears a pitcher down to warm up and enter games that frequently, and indeed Neshek was shelved with two weeks left because his arm had worn down. More than likely, that's why we saw his numbers drop off after the All-Star break. He enters this season with a fresh arm after a winter of rest, and hopefully Ron Gardenhire will be a little less liberal about forcing Neshek to warm up and enter games several nights in a row just to get an out or two.
2. JASON KUBEL, OF
First half: 240 AB, .250/.302/.404, 7 HR, 37 RBI
Second half: 178 AB, .303/.379/.511, 6 HR, 28 RBI
TREND
Kubel seemed out of his element for much of 2006 after missing the entire 2005 campaign in the aftermath of major knee surgery. His struggles carried over into the early part of the 2007 season, where he appeared tentative at the plate and seemed to struggle with his pitch recognition. However, even during the hard times, Kubel always made hard contact, and as he began to regain the plate discipline that he showed throughout the minors, his numbers began to improve rapidly. Prior to the All-Star break last year, Kubel's K/BB ratio was 2.6; afterward, that number dropped to 1.4. The latter number is much more in line with his minor-league K/BB ratio of 1.1, and as such it should be no surprise that his second-half hitting line was extremely similar to this career hitting line in the minors of .320/.385/.499. Expect similar things in 2008.
3. MATT GUERRIER, RP
First half: 53 IP, 1.70 ERA, 37 K/13 BB, opp .183/.246/.253
Second half: 35 IP, 3.34 ERA, 31 K/8 BB, opp .272/.318/.463
TREND
Guerrier has always been a pretty solid pitcher, but I don't think there's really any question that he was playing way over his head in the first half last year. His luck evened out in the second half, when his ERA and opponents' OPS shot way up despite the fact that he improved his strikeout rate considerably and maintained a relatively modest walk rate. Considering his past performance and his age, I think it's much more realistic to expect an ERA around 3.34 than around 1.70 from Guerrier. Fortunately, that's still very solid.
4. JUSTIN MORNEAU, 1B
First half: 322 AB, .295/.364/.581, 24 HR, 74 RBI
Second half: 268 AB, .243/.318/.384, 7 HR, 37 RBI
MIRAGE
Through the first four months or so of the 2007 season, Morneau continued to post numbers very similar to the ones he racked up during his MVP campaign in 2006. Then, in August and September, Morneau completely fell apart. After hammering 28 home runs through the end of July, Morneau managed a measly three home runs during the season's final 56 games. The drop-off in power isn't completely shocking, since we saw the same trend even during his magnificent '06 campaign (albeit to a much lesser degree), but in 2007 Morneau lacked a .342 second-half batting average to offset the power outage. His offensive numbers down the stretch last year were dreadful, and it seems completely inexplicable. As far as I'm aware, he had no major injuries, and the drop-off in production did not come along with a noticeable increase in strikeouts or decrease in walks. With all these facts in mind, I'm inclined to pass off Morneau's dud second half as a really bad two-month stretch, rather than a fundamental decline in ability. Considering the massive contract he recently signed, we'd better hope that is the case.
Whatever the case, oftentimes we can look at a player's second half and use it as a predictor as to how he will perform in the next season. It makes intuitive sense that a player is more likely to carry his performance from the latter half a season forward, rather than the early part of the season. With this in mind, let's take a look at some Twins players who saw their performance rise or fall in the second half of 2007, and judge whether or not we can expect those second-half trends to carry over into the 2008 season.
1. PAT NESHEK, RP
First half: 42.1 IP, 1.70 ERA, 52 K/13 BB, opp .129/.205/.243
Second half: 28 IP, 4.82 ERA, 22 K/14 BB, opp .260/.347/.440
MIRAGE
Neshek's drop-off in the second half last season was dramatic, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't somewhat concerned. However, for the time being, I am inclined to label it as a mirage. Before being shut down mid-way through September, Neshek had appeared in a total of 74 games last year. That is a ton for a guy whose previous high for an entire season was 65 (set the previous year). While his innings load (70 1/3) was not that bad, it wears a pitcher down to warm up and enter games that frequently, and indeed Neshek was shelved with two weeks left because his arm had worn down. More than likely, that's why we saw his numbers drop off after the All-Star break. He enters this season with a fresh arm after a winter of rest, and hopefully Ron Gardenhire will be a little less liberal about forcing Neshek to warm up and enter games several nights in a row just to get an out or two.
2. JASON KUBEL, OF
First half: 240 AB, .250/.302/.404, 7 HR, 37 RBI
Second half: 178 AB, .303/.379/.511, 6 HR, 28 RBI
TREND
Kubel seemed out of his element for much of 2006 after missing the entire 2005 campaign in the aftermath of major knee surgery. His struggles carried over into the early part of the 2007 season, where he appeared tentative at the plate and seemed to struggle with his pitch recognition. However, even during the hard times, Kubel always made hard contact, and as he began to regain the plate discipline that he showed throughout the minors, his numbers began to improve rapidly. Prior to the All-Star break last year, Kubel's K/BB ratio was 2.6; afterward, that number dropped to 1.4. The latter number is much more in line with his minor-league K/BB ratio of 1.1, and as such it should be no surprise that his second-half hitting line was extremely similar to this career hitting line in the minors of .320/.385/.499. Expect similar things in 2008.
3. MATT GUERRIER, RP
First half: 53 IP, 1.70 ERA, 37 K/13 BB, opp .183/.246/.253
Second half: 35 IP, 3.34 ERA, 31 K/8 BB, opp .272/.318/.463
TREND
Guerrier has always been a pretty solid pitcher, but I don't think there's really any question that he was playing way over his head in the first half last year. His luck evened out in the second half, when his ERA and opponents' OPS shot way up despite the fact that he improved his strikeout rate considerably and maintained a relatively modest walk rate. Considering his past performance and his age, I think it's much more realistic to expect an ERA around 3.34 than around 1.70 from Guerrier. Fortunately, that's still very solid.
4. JUSTIN MORNEAU, 1B
First half: 322 AB, .295/.364/.581, 24 HR, 74 RBI
Second half: 268 AB, .243/.318/.384, 7 HR, 37 RBI
MIRAGE
Through the first four months or so of the 2007 season, Morneau continued to post numbers very similar to the ones he racked up during his MVP campaign in 2006. Then, in August and September, Morneau completely fell apart. After hammering 28 home runs through the end of July, Morneau managed a measly three home runs during the season's final 56 games. The drop-off in power isn't completely shocking, since we saw the same trend even during his magnificent '06 campaign (albeit to a much lesser degree), but in 2007 Morneau lacked a .342 second-half batting average to offset the power outage. His offensive numbers down the stretch last year were dreadful, and it seems completely inexplicable. As far as I'm aware, he had no major injuries, and the drop-off in production did not come along with a noticeable increase in strikeouts or decrease in walks. With all these facts in mind, I'm inclined to pass off Morneau's dud second half as a really bad two-month stretch, rather than a fundamental decline in ability. Considering the massive contract he recently signed, we'd better hope that is the case.
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