As we count down the days until pitchers and catchers report to Ft. Myers, I'm going to run a series of columns this week detailing some of the less high-profile story lines worth following in the 2012 season. We've heard plenty about the redemption quests of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span and Francisco Liriano; in the coming days I'll be examining some other factors that could significantly impact the 2012 season. Today, I look at the pitch that turned around an embattled southpaw's career and could continue to entrench him as one of the game's best relievers.
After averaging just 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings over the first five seasons of his MLB career, Glen Perkins made the switch to full-time setup duties last year and the difference was night and day. In 61 2/3 innings at the back end of the Twins' bullpen, Perkins struck out 65 batters, good for a 9.5 K/9 rate that was superior to any seasonal mark he'd put up since splitting the 2006 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A as a 23-year-old.
Improved health and the freedom to let loose in shorter relief stints aided an increase in velocity across the board for Perkins, but while his fastball gained a few ticks, his most impressive pitch was a devastating slider, which showed remarkably more bite than we've ever seen from it in the past.
According to the PitchFX data available at Brooks Baseball, Perkins threw his slider a total of 440 times between 2008 and 2010, inducing only 47 swings-and-misses (10.7 percent). Last year, his much improved version garnered 60 whiffs on 276 deliveries, spiking his rate to 21.7 percent. That included a 27.6 percent swinging miss rate on two-strike counts, where the spinner was a dominant and very frequently used weapon.
Perkins' supremely effective slider enabled him to completely neutralize right-handed hitters, making him one of the few left-handed relievers in the league worthy of trust against batters from either side of the plate in late-inning situations. If his mastery with that offering continues, we could see him closing games before long.
Showing posts with label perkins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label perkins. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Finding Nathan's Replacement
The biggest question created by the departure of Joe Nathan is, obviously, who is going to fulfill his role as closer for the Twins.
This is an organization that has highly valued the ninth-inning job over the years, as evidenced by their willingness to hand Nathan a $47 million extension back in 2008, and later by their willingness to trade for and subsequently overpay established closer Matt Capps to be Nathan's fallback plan.
I would guess that the front office considers the closer position less of a priority at this point, given the likelihood that the team will not contend next year, but this is still not a decision I expect to be taken lightly. As I see it, there are four options for proceeding:
1) Promote Glen Perkins.
Perkins has certainly done plenty to earn consideration. He was one of the most dominant relievers in the American League this year, posting a 2.48 ERA with an excellent 65-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61 2/3 innings as a setup man.
What the Twins have to ask themselves is whether they're comfortable removing the southpaw from a role in which he was so wildly effective. As the Twins' de facto bullpen ace for much of the season, Perkins was frequently called upon to get more than three outs, to dispatch lefty hitters (whom he held to a .589 OPS) and to work out of sticky situations.
Perkins would not be utilized as optimally in the closer role, where he'd generally be facing whatever batters happened to be due up in the ninth, with a clean slate and with a lead ranging anywhere from one to three runs. All of those tricky spots he worked out of last year would go to someone else.
If the Twins believe Perkins is capable of repeating what he did in 2011, I think they're better off leaving him where he's at.
2) Re-sign Matt Capps.
I know, I know. This is an unthinkable option. But really, it's not.
In an interview with KFAN's Paul Allen yesterday, pitching coach Rick Anderson called out Capps as a potential replacement, saying "I wouldn't give up on a guy like him so quick." Anderson pointed out that the right-hander's struggles this season were largely attributable to a forearm injury that he pitched through, and it's a fair point.
When he's been healthy, Capps has generally been a good enough reliever to adequately handle closing duties, and he has the kind of makeup and accountability that Twins coaches like to see. He showed signs of returning to normal late in the season season, and if he could be signed for significantly less than he earned in 2011, he wouldn't be the worst option as a late-inning counterpart to Perkins.
There's no question that the Twins would have a tough time selling this one to the fans, though.
3) Sign another free agent.
There are a number of closers out on the market, which is one reason the loss of Nathan is easier to bear. On the high end, you've got guys like Ryan Madson, Heath Bell and Francisco Cordero, all of whom the Twins are likely to pass on due to cost.
But then you've got a number of intriguing buy-low candidates. One example is Jonathan Broxton, the formerly dominant Dodgers closer who was limited to 12 innings this year by injury but is still only 27. Another example is Brad Lidge, the slider-flinging right-hander from Philly who pitched only 19 innings but turned in a 1.40 ERA with lots of strikeouts.
4) Acquire a replacement via trade.
The Twins have already flirted with this option, as they were reportedly close to a deal with the Nationals in July that would have brought Washington's young closer Drew Storen to Minnesota. Joe Christensen said a week ago that he wouldn't rule out the possibility of those talks being rekindled, but Ryan may also turn his attention to another closer that is apparently being made available: Andrew Bailey of the Athletics.
ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted this week that the odds of Bailey being traded "appear to be about 100 percent." Like Storen, he's a young right-handed reliever with dominant numbers and several years of team control remaining. Bailey is four years older than Storen and he experienced some elbow problems this spring, but those factors should make him easier to acquire.
Of course, another option is that the Twins follow the route they did with Nathan, identifying a quality setup man in another organization who hasn't yet been established as a full-time closer. The Rays pulled this off quite successfully with Rafael Soriano in 2010.
Whichever direction they choose to take, the Twins will be wise not to invest a huge amount of money into the closer position considering the various uncertainties that surround this club in the short term. With Terry Ryan at the helm, I feel a lot more confident about their ability to do so successfully than I did before.
This is an organization that has highly valued the ninth-inning job over the years, as evidenced by their willingness to hand Nathan a $47 million extension back in 2008, and later by their willingness to trade for and subsequently overpay established closer Matt Capps to be Nathan's fallback plan.
I would guess that the front office considers the closer position less of a priority at this point, given the likelihood that the team will not contend next year, but this is still not a decision I expect to be taken lightly. As I see it, there are four options for proceeding:
1) Promote Glen Perkins.
Perkins has certainly done plenty to earn consideration. He was one of the most dominant relievers in the American League this year, posting a 2.48 ERA with an excellent 65-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61 2/3 innings as a setup man.
What the Twins have to ask themselves is whether they're comfortable removing the southpaw from a role in which he was so wildly effective. As the Twins' de facto bullpen ace for much of the season, Perkins was frequently called upon to get more than three outs, to dispatch lefty hitters (whom he held to a .589 OPS) and to work out of sticky situations.
Perkins would not be utilized as optimally in the closer role, where he'd generally be facing whatever batters happened to be due up in the ninth, with a clean slate and with a lead ranging anywhere from one to three runs. All of those tricky spots he worked out of last year would go to someone else.
If the Twins believe Perkins is capable of repeating what he did in 2011, I think they're better off leaving him where he's at.
2) Re-sign Matt Capps.
I know, I know. This is an unthinkable option. But really, it's not.
In an interview with KFAN's Paul Allen yesterday, pitching coach Rick Anderson called out Capps as a potential replacement, saying "I wouldn't give up on a guy like him so quick." Anderson pointed out that the right-hander's struggles this season were largely attributable to a forearm injury that he pitched through, and it's a fair point.
When he's been healthy, Capps has generally been a good enough reliever to adequately handle closing duties, and he has the kind of makeup and accountability that Twins coaches like to see. He showed signs of returning to normal late in the season season, and if he could be signed for significantly less than he earned in 2011, he wouldn't be the worst option as a late-inning counterpart to Perkins.
There's no question that the Twins would have a tough time selling this one to the fans, though.
3) Sign another free agent.
There are a number of closers out on the market, which is one reason the loss of Nathan is easier to bear. On the high end, you've got guys like Ryan Madson, Heath Bell and Francisco Cordero, all of whom the Twins are likely to pass on due to cost.
But then you've got a number of intriguing buy-low candidates. One example is Jonathan Broxton, the formerly dominant Dodgers closer who was limited to 12 innings this year by injury but is still only 27. Another example is Brad Lidge, the slider-flinging right-hander from Philly who pitched only 19 innings but turned in a 1.40 ERA with lots of strikeouts.
4) Acquire a replacement via trade.
The Twins have already flirted with this option, as they were reportedly close to a deal with the Nationals in July that would have brought Washington's young closer Drew Storen to Minnesota. Joe Christensen said a week ago that he wouldn't rule out the possibility of those talks being rekindled, but Ryan may also turn his attention to another closer that is apparently being made available: Andrew Bailey of the Athletics.
ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted this week that the odds of Bailey being traded "appear to be about 100 percent." Like Storen, he's a young right-handed reliever with dominant numbers and several years of team control remaining. Bailey is four years older than Storen and he experienced some elbow problems this spring, but those factors should make him easier to acquire.
Of course, another option is that the Twins follow the route they did with Nathan, identifying a quality setup man in another organization who hasn't yet been established as a full-time closer. The Rays pulled this off quite successfully with Rafael Soriano in 2010.
Whichever direction they choose to take, the Twins will be wise not to invest a huge amount of money into the closer position considering the various uncertainties that surround this club in the short term. With Terry Ryan at the helm, I feel a lot more confident about their ability to do so successfully than I did before.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Three-Bagger: Perkins, Heroes & Rookie Whiffs
* Glen Perkins surrendered the game-winning homer to Brandon Inge on Saturday night, continuing a troubling trend of poor performance for the lefty. He's has been charged with at least one earned run in nine of 16 appearances since the beginning of August.
It seems fair to speculate that Perkins may be wearing down here late in the season. He worked almost exclusively as a starter in the minors and has never experienced this type of workload before.
Perkins had never pitched in more than 39 games in a prior season; Saturday's appearance was his 59th this year.
* Michael Cuddyer earned praise from several local scribes a couple weeks ago when he heroically asked into the lineup for a meaningless game after taking a pitch to the wrist the night before. Since the plunking, Cuddyer has gone 4-for-34 (.118) with 10 strikeouts, and now the wrist has been bothering him enough that he hasn't played in a week.
Meanwhile, Joe Mauer, who sat out to let a sore neck heal at the same time Cuddyer was playing through a debilitating wrist injury, is back in the lineup and producing. He even a caught a game in Detroit over the weekend -- his first time since August 20th.
Turns out resting might actually be the smart approach with certain injuries rather than toughing it out and playing hurt in order to satisfy some ridiculous tenet of machismo. Imagine that.
* In his first 19 major-league plate appearances, Joe Benson has three hits and seven strikeouts. I wrote last week that whiffs figure to be a major issue for the promising young outfielder.
It seems fair to speculate that Perkins may be wearing down here late in the season. He worked almost exclusively as a starter in the minors and has never experienced this type of workload before.
Perkins had never pitched in more than 39 games in a prior season; Saturday's appearance was his 59th this year.
* Michael Cuddyer earned praise from several local scribes a couple weeks ago when he heroically asked into the lineup for a meaningless game after taking a pitch to the wrist the night before. Since the plunking, Cuddyer has gone 4-for-34 (.118) with 10 strikeouts, and now the wrist has been bothering him enough that he hasn't played in a week.
Meanwhile, Joe Mauer, who sat out to let a sore neck heal at the same time Cuddyer was playing through a debilitating wrist injury, is back in the lineup and producing. He even a caught a game in Detroit over the weekend -- his first time since August 20th.
Turns out resting might actually be the smart approach with certain injuries rather than toughing it out and playing hurt in order to satisfy some ridiculous tenet of machismo. Imagine that.
* In his first 19 major-league plate appearances, Joe Benson has three hits and seven strikeouts. I wrote last week that whiffs figure to be a major issue for the promising young outfielder.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Right at Home
Perkins is nasty.
That's not a critique of my favorite late-night breakfast haunt, it's a commentary on the performance of Twins' reliever Glen Perkins, whose emergence as a reliable setup man has stood out as one of the team's few bright spots this year.
I certainly didn't see it coming. Entering this season, Perkins had a 4.81 career ERA and 1.44 WHIP -- not the kind of numbers that scream "late-inning relief." Over the past three years, he had allowed 332 hits in 269 innings.
The 2010 season was a tumultuous one for Perkins, who toiled his way to a 4-9 record and 5.81 ERA in Rochester. He didn't fare any better during his time in Minnesota, posting a 5.82 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 21 2/3 big-league innings.
Yet, the Twins' coaching staff saw something they liked in the southpaw while he worked out of the bullpen as a September call-up, enough so that they tendered him a contract and essentially guaranteed him a spot in this year's renovated relief corps.
Perkins jumped out to a fast, yet unsustainable, start for the Twins. Over his first nine appearances, he allowed no runs on five hits over nine frames but struck out only three of the 31 batters he faced. The lefty's success in spite of an abysmal 10-percent K-rate came on the wings of a .192 BABIP, and even if your name's Mariano Rivera you don't sustain a sub-.200 BABIP.
Perkins' luck was bound to catch up with him, and it has. In 10 appearances since, he has a .400 BABIP. Yet he has continued to excel, with a 1.42 ERA and .615 opponents' OPS during that span, thanks to a huge spike in punch-outs. In those 10 appearances, Perkins has fanned 18 of 50 hitters. That's more than one out of every three.
Perkins, a former first-round pick, was considered a top prospect while coming up through the minors but it's sometimes been hard to tell while watching him work out of the major-league rotation. As a starter, he's battled injuries and mostly survived as a left-handed junk-baller. But Perkins seems to have found a home in the bullpen, where his fastball has elevated to the mid-90s and his confidence continues to grow.
The success has prompted some Twins fans to wonder whether a return to the rotation might be in order, but make no mistake: Perkins is right where he needs to be. The Twins deserve credit for figuring that out, even if it it took a few years to do so.
That's not a critique of my favorite late-night breakfast haunt, it's a commentary on the performance of Twins' reliever Glen Perkins, whose emergence as a reliable setup man has stood out as one of the team's few bright spots this year.
I certainly didn't see it coming. Entering this season, Perkins had a 4.81 career ERA and 1.44 WHIP -- not the kind of numbers that scream "late-inning relief." Over the past three years, he had allowed 332 hits in 269 innings.
The 2010 season was a tumultuous one for Perkins, who toiled his way to a 4-9 record and 5.81 ERA in Rochester. He didn't fare any better during his time in Minnesota, posting a 5.82 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 21 2/3 big-league innings.
Yet, the Twins' coaching staff saw something they liked in the southpaw while he worked out of the bullpen as a September call-up, enough so that they tendered him a contract and essentially guaranteed him a spot in this year's renovated relief corps.
Perkins jumped out to a fast, yet unsustainable, start for the Twins. Over his first nine appearances, he allowed no runs on five hits over nine frames but struck out only three of the 31 batters he faced. The lefty's success in spite of an abysmal 10-percent K-rate came on the wings of a .192 BABIP, and even if your name's Mariano Rivera you don't sustain a sub-.200 BABIP.
Perkins' luck was bound to catch up with him, and it has. In 10 appearances since, he has a .400 BABIP. Yet he has continued to excel, with a 1.42 ERA and .615 opponents' OPS during that span, thanks to a huge spike in punch-outs. In those 10 appearances, Perkins has fanned 18 of 50 hitters. That's more than one out of every three.
Perkins, a former first-round pick, was considered a top prospect while coming up through the minors but it's sometimes been hard to tell while watching him work out of the major-league rotation. As a starter, he's battled injuries and mostly survived as a left-handed junk-baller. But Perkins seems to have found a home in the bullpen, where his fastball has elevated to the mid-90s and his confidence continues to grow.
The success has prompted some Twins fans to wonder whether a return to the rotation might be in order, but make no mistake: Perkins is right where he needs to be. The Twins deserve credit for figuring that out, even if it it took a few years to do so.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher
Yesterday, I broke down the starting rotation, which I deemed to be "the club's strongest and deepest position." Today we look at a unit that falls on the opposite end of the spectrum. Unless you're engaging in starry-eyed optimism, it's tough to view the bullpen as a strength for the Twins as we enter the 2011 season. They lost several quality relief arms during the offseason and signed no one to replace any of them, so much will hinge on a return to form from Joe Nathan and the emergence of several unproven hurlers in unfamiliar roles.
Fortunately, the bullpen is certainly an area that can be improved over the course of the summer through in-season acquisitions, but that means parting with assets when there were a number of established relief pitchers available for nothing but a few million dollars (or less) during the offseason.
Let's take a look at how the bullpen shapes up as we enter the 2011 season:
Joe Nathan
2010 Stats: Did not pitch
After missing the 2010 season with Tommy John surgery, Nathan entered spring training this year under the pretense that he would have to earn back a closer role that had been held by incumbent Matt Capps. As it turns out, the basis for the coaching staff's evaluation on this matter was not performance, as Nathan has been awarded closing duties despite allowing nine runs on 10 hits over 7 1/3 innings this month with four walks and only three strikeouts. Those numbers are certainly concerning coming from someone who hasn't pitched in a year after undergoing a serious elbow operation, but the Twins like what they've seen in terms of velocity and command from Nathan so hopefully their confidence is well warranted. If not, they do have the luxury of Capps waiting in the setup role.
Matt Capps
2010 Stats: 73 IP, 42 SV, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB
The Twins gave up too much to get Capps at the trade deadline last July and this year they're paying him too much money. What's done is done, though, and at this point we're better off appreciating what he provides to the bullpen. Nathan's status will remain a question mark until we've seen him successfully close out several games, and should his spring training struggles persist Ron Gardenhire won't hesitate in shifting the proven Capps into the role. That's not a good scenario, since someone else would have to fill Capps' role as top right-handed setup man and no other candidate for that role has much experience pitching high-leverage relief innings in the majors.
Jose Mijares
2010 Stats: 32.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 28/9 K/BB
The 2010 season was a forgettable one for Mijares. Injuries limited him to about half of his normal workload, and when he was on the field he often lacked his typical sharpness. This year, the lefty is reportedly adding a two-seam fastball to his repertoire, which should improve his results against right-handed hitters (a vital skill in a bullpen that already includes two other left-handers). Mijares came to camp looking trimmer this year; if healthy, he should be a quality late-inning option throughout the season.
Kevin Slowey
2010 Stats: 155.2 IP, 13-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 116/29 K/BB
Setting expectations for Slowey the reliever is not easy. We know that he's a good pitcher, and it's not hard to see his outstanding control being a real asset in the bullpen. Then again, he's made only four relief appearances in his major-league career after serving as a starter almost exclusively throughout the minors, so this is new territory for the righty. How will he handle being called on to throw in tight late-game situations? Will pitching in one-inning stints allow him to add a few ticks to his 89-mph fastball? Will his secondary stuff be maximized? Slowey certainly has the potential to succeed in relief, but like many other members of this unit he's a question mark.
Glen Perkins
2010 Stats: 21.2 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 14/5 K/BB
As a 28-year-old who's out of options and hasn't been effective since the 2008 season, Perkins seemed like a lock to be non-tendered this offseason. Instead, the Twins gave him a contract and now a spot in their bullpen. The team has cited Perkins' solid performance while pitching in relief last September as a key reason for retaining him, but -- even looking beyond the fact that opponents hit .326 against him during that minuscule 12-inning sample -- this seems awfully short-sighted. Perkins doesn't miss bats, has been bad against lefties and has always been a guy who's allowed a lot of base runners. I don't get it.
Dusty Hughes
2010 Stats: 56.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 34/24 K/BB
The Twins were very impressed when they faced Hughes as a left-handed reliever for the Royals last year. It's not hard to see why; when playing against Minnesota the southpaw allowed only three runs on nine hits over 13 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he'll no longer be able to face the Twins and against all other opponents Hughes posted a 4.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 28-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 43 innings. In other words, he wasn't very good, and it was his first extended look in the majors as a 28-year-old who'd been fairly unspectacular in the minors. Dedicating two spots in a questionable bullpen to pitchers like Hughes and Perkins strikes me as an extremely bizarre decision.
Jeff Manship
2010 Stats: 29 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 21/6 K/BB
Rounding out the bullpen at the onset of the 2010 season will be Manship, a guy who spent some time there last season. In his big-league career, the right-hander has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, which aren't exactly the kind of numbers that inspire late-inning confidence. Manship has been quite hittable ever since reaching reaching the highest levels (he's allowed 260 hits over 209 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors) and unless that changes he won't be particularly useful. It will be interesting to see how Gardenhire elects to utilize him.
Fortunately, the bullpen is certainly an area that can be improved over the course of the summer through in-season acquisitions, but that means parting with assets when there were a number of established relief pitchers available for nothing but a few million dollars (or less) during the offseason.
Let's take a look at how the bullpen shapes up as we enter the 2011 season:
Joe Nathan
2010 Stats: Did not pitch
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| Charles Krupa, AP |
Matt Capps
2010 Stats: 73 IP, 42 SV, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB
The Twins gave up too much to get Capps at the trade deadline last July and this year they're paying him too much money. What's done is done, though, and at this point we're better off appreciating what he provides to the bullpen. Nathan's status will remain a question mark until we've seen him successfully close out several games, and should his spring training struggles persist Ron Gardenhire won't hesitate in shifting the proven Capps into the role. That's not a good scenario, since someone else would have to fill Capps' role as top right-handed setup man and no other candidate for that role has much experience pitching high-leverage relief innings in the majors.
Jose Mijares
2010 Stats: 32.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 28/9 K/BB
The 2010 season was a forgettable one for Mijares. Injuries limited him to about half of his normal workload, and when he was on the field he often lacked his typical sharpness. This year, the lefty is reportedly adding a two-seam fastball to his repertoire, which should improve his results against right-handed hitters (a vital skill in a bullpen that already includes two other left-handers). Mijares came to camp looking trimmer this year; if healthy, he should be a quality late-inning option throughout the season.
Kevin Slowey
2010 Stats: 155.2 IP, 13-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 116/29 K/BB
Setting expectations for Slowey the reliever is not easy. We know that he's a good pitcher, and it's not hard to see his outstanding control being a real asset in the bullpen. Then again, he's made only four relief appearances in his major-league career after serving as a starter almost exclusively throughout the minors, so this is new territory for the righty. How will he handle being called on to throw in tight late-game situations? Will pitching in one-inning stints allow him to add a few ticks to his 89-mph fastball? Will his secondary stuff be maximized? Slowey certainly has the potential to succeed in relief, but like many other members of this unit he's a question mark.
Glen Perkins
2010 Stats: 21.2 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 14/5 K/BB
As a 28-year-old who's out of options and hasn't been effective since the 2008 season, Perkins seemed like a lock to be non-tendered this offseason. Instead, the Twins gave him a contract and now a spot in their bullpen. The team has cited Perkins' solid performance while pitching in relief last September as a key reason for retaining him, but -- even looking beyond the fact that opponents hit .326 against him during that minuscule 12-inning sample -- this seems awfully short-sighted. Perkins doesn't miss bats, has been bad against lefties and has always been a guy who's allowed a lot of base runners. I don't get it.
Dusty Hughes
2010 Stats: 56.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 34/24 K/BB
The Twins were very impressed when they faced Hughes as a left-handed reliever for the Royals last year. It's not hard to see why; when playing against Minnesota the southpaw allowed only three runs on nine hits over 13 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he'll no longer be able to face the Twins and against all other opponents Hughes posted a 4.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 28-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 43 innings. In other words, he wasn't very good, and it was his first extended look in the majors as a 28-year-old who'd been fairly unspectacular in the minors. Dedicating two spots in a questionable bullpen to pitchers like Hughes and Perkins strikes me as an extremely bizarre decision.
Jeff Manship
2010 Stats: 29 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 21/6 K/BB
Rounding out the bullpen at the onset of the 2010 season will be Manship, a guy who spent some time there last season. In his big-league career, the right-hander has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, which aren't exactly the kind of numbers that inspire late-inning confidence. Manship has been quite hittable ever since reaching reaching the highest levels (he's allowed 260 hits over 209 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors) and unless that changes he won't be particularly useful. It will be interesting to see how Gardenhire elects to utilize him.
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Bullpen Dreams
One of the most annoying parts of the offseason is that we, as fans, are often given so little to work with that we are forced to dissect and interpret quotes that -- in their original context -- might bear very little meaning.
When asked about the state of the Twins' bullpen yesterday, Bill Smith gave a rather unsettling answer:
I don't mean to draw any unflattering Tim Brewster comparisons, but in the above quote Smith sounds like a used car salesman. Who does he think he's fooling? Pat Neshek and Glen Perkins spent most of 2010 in Triple-A because they were both completely ineffective and neither has proven to be fully recovered from their latest injuries. A "competitive" Joe Nathan is not exactly the jolt needed for a bullpen containing nothing but question marks past Matt Capps and Jose Mijares. The unit, as it currently stands, is exceedingly thin even if Nathan returns at full strength. And as Neshek's 2010 campaign proved, that first year back from Tommy John surgery can bring its share of tribulations.
There's no Danny Valencia caliber player ready to step into the Twins' bullpen and make us all forget about Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier. It's possible that Anthony Slama -- a strikeout machine with questionable control -- could make a positive impact, but the organization has never seemed all that high on him and it's telling that Smith would rather mention Perkins, who has compiled a 5.71 ERA between the majors and minors over the past two seasons. Beyond Slama, the Twins have zero relief prospects in the organization with the kind of numbers that would indicate they're ready to step in and handle late-inning duties for the big-league club.
I'm sure Smith must realize the gravity of the team's bullpen situation, so most likely I'm just over-analyzing a harmless early December quote. Still, for the sake of my blood pressure Bill, please refrain from making similar comments in the future.
When asked about the state of the Twins' bullpen yesterday, Bill Smith gave a rather unsettling answer:
"Sometimes your best bet, rather than go out and get a third baseman, your best bet is to bring up Valencia and give him a chance," Smith said. "And we always like to do that. We love to bring players out of our system if they can help us win."My hope is that this is one of those offhand remarks that doesn't accurately reflect the mindset of the front office. Because if Smith and Co. are remotely comfortable with the bullpen pieces they currently have in place, they're out of their minds.
He added, "Perkins and Neshek and Nathan are three guys that would be great wild cards for us, because Perkins and Neshek pitched all season in Triple-A, or most of the season in Triple-A, and Nathan not at all."
"So if we can get Nathan back, competitive, to anywhere close to where he was, if we can get Neshek back to where he was several years ago -- and this would be the second year after Tommy John surgery. And Perkins threw the ball well in September, and had some stints of throwing the ball very well in Rochester."
I don't mean to draw any unflattering Tim Brewster comparisons, but in the above quote Smith sounds like a used car salesman. Who does he think he's fooling? Pat Neshek and Glen Perkins spent most of 2010 in Triple-A because they were both completely ineffective and neither has proven to be fully recovered from their latest injuries. A "competitive" Joe Nathan is not exactly the jolt needed for a bullpen containing nothing but question marks past Matt Capps and Jose Mijares. The unit, as it currently stands, is exceedingly thin even if Nathan returns at full strength. And as Neshek's 2010 campaign proved, that first year back from Tommy John surgery can bring its share of tribulations.
There's no Danny Valencia caliber player ready to step into the Twins' bullpen and make us all forget about Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier. It's possible that Anthony Slama -- a strikeout machine with questionable control -- could make a positive impact, but the organization has never seemed all that high on him and it's telling that Smith would rather mention Perkins, who has compiled a 5.71 ERA between the majors and minors over the past two seasons. Beyond Slama, the Twins have zero relief prospects in the organization with the kind of numbers that would indicate they're ready to step in and handle late-inning duties for the big-league club.
I'm sure Smith must realize the gravity of the team's bullpen situation, so most likely I'm just over-analyzing a harmless early December quote. Still, for the sake of my blood pressure Bill, please refrain from making similar comments in the future.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Glen Perkins is Not a LOOGY
Middle school students associate the word "loogie" with a big wad of spit laced with mucus. Baseball fans are more familiar with the spelling LOOGY and the acronym for which it stands: Lefty One-Out GuY. This refers to a left-handed pitcher whose sole duty in the bullpen is coming in to retire tough left-handed hitters. While these relievers don't always strictly follow the usage pattern that the LOOGY label would suggest (often they face multiple batters in a game), it's clear what their specialty is.
The Twins have largely relied on two pitchers to fill this role in the 2010 season: Jose Mijares and Ron Mahay. While Mahay has been effective against left-handed hitters, most people (rightfully) do not view him as a particularly reliable option in high-leverage situations so Mijares has been the go-to guy when multiple left-handed hitters have been due up with the game on the line.
Unfortunately, Mijares injured his knee while trying to make a play at first base in last night's game and is headed for the disabled list. Since left-hander Glen Perkins had already been called up to the big-league roster as a spot starter for Wednesday's game, the prevailing wisdom as that he should be moved to the bullpen as Mijares' short-term replacement.
However, this cannot be emphasized enough: Perkins is NOT a candidate to become a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen.
That's because, despite the fact that he throws with his left arm, Perkins has proven over a lengthy period of time that he is simply not an asset against left-handed hitters.
Over 117 innings with Triple-A Rochester this season, Perkins has allowed a .327 batting average against lefty hitters, compared to .305 for righties. His strikeout rate against righties during that span (7.56 K/9IP) has actually been markedly better than his strikeout rate against lefties (4.76 K/9IP).
The trend is not unique to this season. In his minor-league career, Perkins has allowed a .277 average against left-handed batters as opposed to .254 against righties. His K-rate against righties is 8.29 compared to 7.71 against lefties. While his control has been slightly better against left-handers (3.29 BB/9IP to 3.00), the difference is negligible.
Those patterns have also been reflected during Perkins' major-league time, during which he has allowed a .327 average and .857 OPS against lefties, versus a .283 average and .786 OPS against righties. In 286 big-league innings, Perkins has posted a solid 107-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio against right-handers, while the ratio against lefties is an ugly 40-to-30.
I'll point out that right-handers have always been able to hit Perkins harder (69 of the 82 home runs he's allowed in his pro career have come against righties), but the statistics make it clear that Perkins is far from dominant against left-handed batters.
With his 6.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in Triple-A this year, Perkins doesn't belong on a big-league roster to begin with. But if the Twins are thinking he might be an asset as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen in the absence of Mijares, they're sadly mistaken.
It's just irresponsible to overlook the mounds of evidence suggesting that Perkins is far less effective against lefties than righties, regardless of which arm he throws with.
The Twins have largely relied on two pitchers to fill this role in the 2010 season: Jose Mijares and Ron Mahay. While Mahay has been effective against left-handed hitters, most people (rightfully) do not view him as a particularly reliable option in high-leverage situations so Mijares has been the go-to guy when multiple left-handed hitters have been due up with the game on the line.
Unfortunately, Mijares injured his knee while trying to make a play at first base in last night's game and is headed for the disabled list. Since left-hander Glen Perkins had already been called up to the big-league roster as a spot starter for Wednesday's game, the prevailing wisdom as that he should be moved to the bullpen as Mijares' short-term replacement.
However, this cannot be emphasized enough: Perkins is NOT a candidate to become a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen.
That's because, despite the fact that he throws with his left arm, Perkins has proven over a lengthy period of time that he is simply not an asset against left-handed hitters.
Over 117 innings with Triple-A Rochester this season, Perkins has allowed a .327 batting average against lefty hitters, compared to .305 for righties. His strikeout rate against righties during that span (7.56 K/9IP) has actually been markedly better than his strikeout rate against lefties (4.76 K/9IP).
The trend is not unique to this season. In his minor-league career, Perkins has allowed a .277 average against left-handed batters as opposed to .254 against righties. His K-rate against righties is 8.29 compared to 7.71 against lefties. While his control has been slightly better against left-handers (3.29 BB/9IP to 3.00), the difference is negligible.
Those patterns have also been reflected during Perkins' major-league time, during which he has allowed a .327 average and .857 OPS against lefties, versus a .283 average and .786 OPS against righties. In 286 big-league innings, Perkins has posted a solid 107-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio against right-handers, while the ratio against lefties is an ugly 40-to-30.
I'll point out that right-handers have always been able to hit Perkins harder (69 of the 82 home runs he's allowed in his pro career have come against righties), but the statistics make it clear that Perkins is far from dominant against left-handed batters.
With his 6.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in Triple-A this year, Perkins doesn't belong on a big-league roster to begin with. But if the Twins are thinking he might be an asset as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen in the absence of Mijares, they're sadly mistaken.
It's just irresponsible to overlook the mounds of evidence suggesting that Perkins is far less effective against lefties than righties, regardless of which arm he throws with.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Wednesday Notes
A few notes in preparation for tonight's Sox/Twins tilt:
* Tonight, Glen Perkins takes the hill in a key game against the White Sox. Chicago will counter with the outstanding southpaw John Danks, so this is about as lopsided a pitching match-up as the Twins have seen all year. If they can find a way to win, I'll be extremely impressed. If not, the Twins will still have a decent shot at taking the series with Francisco Liriano toeing the rubber tomorrow night.
* I like Scott Baker, but one thing that has always driven me mad about his approach to pitching is his tendency to throw utterly hittable pitches on an 0-2 count. Last night, with the Twins leading 5-0, Baker left such a pitch up and over the plate to Carlos Quentin and Quentin drilled it over the fence for a three-run homer. At the time, it looked like a huge mistake for Baker, though his offense took any possible heat off his shoulders by continuing to crush Sox pitching all night. Nevertheless, the issue remains prevalent for Baker, who has allowed a .389 slugging percentage on 0-2 counts this year, compared to the major-league average of .214.
I, personally, am of the opinion that 0-2 pitches should rarely be anywhere near the strike zone. Sadly, it doesn't seem as though coaches in the Twins organization instill the same philosophy.
* I was honored when Rob Neyer approached me last autumn with a proposal to join his SweetSpot Network over at ESPN.com. Honored because I know Rob doesn't take such decisions lightly, and the fact that he felt this little old blog was up to snuff for his elite network meant a lot to me.
As such, I'm very pleased to see a couple bloggers I've started following with increased interest recently gaining similar recognition from Neyer. The Common Man (not to be confused with KFAN's mid-day host) and Bill from The Daily Something are now joining forces at The Platoon Advantage, which becomes -- to my knowledge -- the first non-team-specific SweetSpot blog.
If you enjoy smart, irreverent baseball analysis, I strongly recommend adding The Platoon Advantage to your daily reading list.
* I was featured in an interview over at TwinCitiesSpark.com earlier this week. If you're interested, you can click on over and learn more than you'd ever like to know about this blog's origin, history and impact on my life.
* Tonight, Glen Perkins takes the hill in a key game against the White Sox. Chicago will counter with the outstanding southpaw John Danks, so this is about as lopsided a pitching match-up as the Twins have seen all year. If they can find a way to win, I'll be extremely impressed. If not, the Twins will still have a decent shot at taking the series with Francisco Liriano toeing the rubber tomorrow night.
* I like Scott Baker, but one thing that has always driven me mad about his approach to pitching is his tendency to throw utterly hittable pitches on an 0-2 count. Last night, with the Twins leading 5-0, Baker left such a pitch up and over the plate to Carlos Quentin and Quentin drilled it over the fence for a three-run homer. At the time, it looked like a huge mistake for Baker, though his offense took any possible heat off his shoulders by continuing to crush Sox pitching all night. Nevertheless, the issue remains prevalent for Baker, who has allowed a .389 slugging percentage on 0-2 counts this year, compared to the major-league average of .214.
I, personally, am of the opinion that 0-2 pitches should rarely be anywhere near the strike zone. Sadly, it doesn't seem as though coaches in the Twins organization instill the same philosophy.
* I was honored when Rob Neyer approached me last autumn with a proposal to join his SweetSpot Network over at ESPN.com. Honored because I know Rob doesn't take such decisions lightly, and the fact that he felt this little old blog was up to snuff for his elite network meant a lot to me.
As such, I'm very pleased to see a couple bloggers I've started following with increased interest recently gaining similar recognition from Neyer. The Common Man (not to be confused with KFAN's mid-day host) and Bill from The Daily Something are now joining forces at The Platoon Advantage, which becomes -- to my knowledge -- the first non-team-specific SweetSpot blog.
If you enjoy smart, irreverent baseball analysis, I strongly recommend adding The Platoon Advantage to your daily reading list.
* I was featured in an interview over at TwinCitiesSpark.com earlier this week. If you're interested, you can click on over and learn more than you'd ever like to know about this blog's origin, history and impact on my life.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
The Fall of Glen Perkins
In 2008, we saw the foundation being built for the future of the Twins' rotation. Johan Santana and Carlos Silva had departed in the previous offseason, and young hurlers like Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn were stepping up to pick up the slack while Francisco Liriano embarked upon his comeback from Tommy John surgery. One entrenched figure in that '08 group, though, has seen his stock drop dramatically to the point that he's now not much more than an afterthought.
After an impressive rookie campaign in 2008, Glen Perkins opened the '09 season with three consecutive eight-inning gems and appeared poised for an outstanding sophomore year. Then, the wheels came off. Perkins struggled over the next few months, battling injuries and posting a 7.34 ERA over his next 15 appearances (14 starts). When he was sent to Triple-A in August, Perkins and his agent cried foul, claiming that the demotion was a ploy to delay his arbitration clock and rob him of future earnings. The Twins, who certainly had legitimate reason to send Perkins down given his terrible performance, were clearly annoyed by the accusations. When the Twins assembled a vast array of past and present players late in the season for a ceremony to bid farewell to the Metrodome, Perkins did not attend. Many saw it as a foregone conclusion that the lefty, a Stillwater native and University of Minnesota alum who had seemed destined to play out his career as a Twin, would be dealt during the offseason.
Perkins wasn't dealt, perhaps due to a lack of demand, and he entered spring training this year ostensibly vying for the fifth spot in the Twins rotation. It's impossible to say whether or not the Twins truly viewed him as a candidate for that spot, but Perkins did himself no favors by performing poorly in Grapefruit League play before being sidelined by yet another injury, and he found himself in the minors to start the season. Things have continued to cascade for him there. After allowing two runs over three innings in his first start for Rochester, Perkins was pounded on Monday night, allowing seven runs (five earned) on seven hits over just 3 1/3 innings. Perkins' ERA with the Red Wings now sits at 9.95, and it's tough to imagine at this point that he'd be even third or fourth in line to be called upon should one of the Twins' current starters falter or suffer an injury.
The Twins have a tough call on their hand with Perkins. He seems to be languishing in this organization. Whether due to confidence problems, lingering injuries or some other combination of issues, the 12-game winner with the Twins in 2008 can no longer seem to get Triple-A hitters out. At age 27, Perkins' career may hang in the balance. With Blackburn's arm hurting and the Twins dealing with some injuries in the bullpen, the opportunity definitely exists for him to get back onto the major-league roster and resurrect his career. But first, he needs to get on track in Rochester. Despite all the bad blood that seems to now exist between him and the Twins organization, I'm really hoping Perkins gets another chance -- if not here, then elsewhere.
After an impressive rookie campaign in 2008, Glen Perkins opened the '09 season with three consecutive eight-inning gems and appeared poised for an outstanding sophomore year. Then, the wheels came off. Perkins struggled over the next few months, battling injuries and posting a 7.34 ERA over his next 15 appearances (14 starts). When he was sent to Triple-A in August, Perkins and his agent cried foul, claiming that the demotion was a ploy to delay his arbitration clock and rob him of future earnings. The Twins, who certainly had legitimate reason to send Perkins down given his terrible performance, were clearly annoyed by the accusations. When the Twins assembled a vast array of past and present players late in the season for a ceremony to bid farewell to the Metrodome, Perkins did not attend. Many saw it as a foregone conclusion that the lefty, a Stillwater native and University of Minnesota alum who had seemed destined to play out his career as a Twin, would be dealt during the offseason.
Perkins wasn't dealt, perhaps due to a lack of demand, and he entered spring training this year ostensibly vying for the fifth spot in the Twins rotation. It's impossible to say whether or not the Twins truly viewed him as a candidate for that spot, but Perkins did himself no favors by performing poorly in Grapefruit League play before being sidelined by yet another injury, and he found himself in the minors to start the season. Things have continued to cascade for him there. After allowing two runs over three innings in his first start for Rochester, Perkins was pounded on Monday night, allowing seven runs (five earned) on seven hits over just 3 1/3 innings. Perkins' ERA with the Red Wings now sits at 9.95, and it's tough to imagine at this point that he'd be even third or fourth in line to be called upon should one of the Twins' current starters falter or suffer an injury.
The Twins have a tough call on their hand with Perkins. He seems to be languishing in this organization. Whether due to confidence problems, lingering injuries or some other combination of issues, the 12-game winner with the Twins in 2008 can no longer seem to get Triple-A hitters out. At age 27, Perkins' career may hang in the balance. With Blackburn's arm hurting and the Twins dealing with some injuries in the bullpen, the opportunity definitely exists for him to get back onto the major-league roster and resurrect his career. But first, he needs to get on track in Rochester. Despite all the bad blood that seems to now exist between him and the Twins organization, I'm really hoping Perkins gets another chance -- if not here, then elsewhere.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Who You Calling Crazy?
Earlier today, La Velle E. Neal III had a post on his blog detailing the current status of the Glen Perkins situation. This is a hot topic, because Perkins entered the offseason as one of the Twins' most viable trade candidates given his repeated run-ins with the front office during the past season, but there hasn't been much indication that the left-hander is drawing a lot of interest.
In his post, Neal references trade talks that the Twins had with the Padres earlier this winter involving Perkins and third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff. Neal notes that the Padres were looking for more than Perkins as a return, and credits the Twins for backing off. He then goes on to make a couple of rather befuddling statements.
First: "Perkins and Kouzmanoff are similar players in that they are still looking for their breakthrough season."
I guess that's technically true. Neither Perkins nor Kouzmanoff has had a truly great season as of yet, despite the fact that both were highly regarded as prospects. However, when looking at the total body of work from both players it's easy to see that Kouz is far more accomplished. In three seasons since becoming a full-time player, he has posted a .263/.309/.436 hitting line; while that doesn't seem particularly impressive at first glance, one must note that he's doing his hitting in the league's most pitcher-friendly ballpark in San Diego. OPS+, which accounts for park effects, puts Kouzmanoff at 103 over that span -- and he's been consistent, with marks of 103, 100 and 100 over the past three years, respectively. Since an OPS+ of 100 is considered average, that puts Kouz as an average to above-average hitter in each of the past three seasons. Once his quality defense is factored in, we find that Kouzmanoff has been a pretty darn good player during his three years as a starter with the Padres.
Conversely, Perkins has a had a rather mucky major-league career thus far. After compiling a handful of relief appearances during the 2006 and 2007 seasons, Perkins joined the Twins rotation in 2008. In two seasons as a starter with the Twins, he has amassed a 4.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 247 1/3 innings. Using ERA+, which is essentially the pitcher's version of the OPS+ metric we used for Kouzmanoff above, Perkins comes in with an 85 mark over those two years, putting him well below average. Whereas Kouzmanoff, at his worst, has essentially been an average hitter, Perkins topped out with a 95 ERA+ in 2008.
Once you add in the fact that Perkins has a long history of injuries -- some of which remain causes for concern -- and had well publicized spats with his team's front office throughout the past season, there's little question which of the two players currently holds more value. The idea that the Padres were out of line for requesting more than Perkins in return for Kouzmanoff is pretty specious, and it's a shame that Neal is perpetuating it.
In that same vein, Neal goes on to make the following comment: "Suggestions that the Twins should have added Alexi Casilla to the deal are crazy."
You can make the argument that Perkins and Casilla is too much to give up for Kouzmanoff, but crazy?? While he's still young, Casilla holds a .244/.301/.314 hitting line over nearly 1,000 major-league plate appearances. With the exception of a strong stretch in the middle months of the 2008 season, he has not shown any ability to produce at the big-league level, and he has consistently garnered poor ratings on the defensive side. Casilla maintains some upside thanks to his quality minor-league track record, but at this point it's tough to view him as anything other than a potential utility infielder, and the Twins have plenty of those lined up. On top of everything, I'm fairly certain he's out of options, and given that there may very well be no room for him on the Twins' roster come April, unloading him for a player that can help the team this year could be something of a coup.
I'm not all that keen on Kouzmanoff. He's a low-OBP guy and the Twins are currently in need of players who can get on base. But when beat writers are indicating to fans that opposing general managers are trying to scam the Twins by asking for Perkins and Casilla in a trade, they're planting the wrong types of ideas in people's heads. From an objective standpoint, neither of those players has very much trade value at this point.
In his post, Neal references trade talks that the Twins had with the Padres earlier this winter involving Perkins and third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff. Neal notes that the Padres were looking for more than Perkins as a return, and credits the Twins for backing off. He then goes on to make a couple of rather befuddling statements.
First: "Perkins and Kouzmanoff are similar players in that they are still looking for their breakthrough season."
I guess that's technically true. Neither Perkins nor Kouzmanoff has had a truly great season as of yet, despite the fact that both were highly regarded as prospects. However, when looking at the total body of work from both players it's easy to see that Kouz is far more accomplished. In three seasons since becoming a full-time player, he has posted a .263/.309/.436 hitting line; while that doesn't seem particularly impressive at first glance, one must note that he's doing his hitting in the league's most pitcher-friendly ballpark in San Diego. OPS+, which accounts for park effects, puts Kouzmanoff at 103 over that span -- and he's been consistent, with marks of 103, 100 and 100 over the past three years, respectively. Since an OPS+ of 100 is considered average, that puts Kouz as an average to above-average hitter in each of the past three seasons. Once his quality defense is factored in, we find that Kouzmanoff has been a pretty darn good player during his three years as a starter with the Padres.
Conversely, Perkins has a had a rather mucky major-league career thus far. After compiling a handful of relief appearances during the 2006 and 2007 seasons, Perkins joined the Twins rotation in 2008. In two seasons as a starter with the Twins, he has amassed a 4.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 247 1/3 innings. Using ERA+, which is essentially the pitcher's version of the OPS+ metric we used for Kouzmanoff above, Perkins comes in with an 85 mark over those two years, putting him well below average. Whereas Kouzmanoff, at his worst, has essentially been an average hitter, Perkins topped out with a 95 ERA+ in 2008.
Once you add in the fact that Perkins has a long history of injuries -- some of which remain causes for concern -- and had well publicized spats with his team's front office throughout the past season, there's little question which of the two players currently holds more value. The idea that the Padres were out of line for requesting more than Perkins in return for Kouzmanoff is pretty specious, and it's a shame that Neal is perpetuating it.
In that same vein, Neal goes on to make the following comment: "Suggestions that the Twins should have added Alexi Casilla to the deal are crazy."
You can make the argument that Perkins and Casilla is too much to give up for Kouzmanoff, but crazy?? While he's still young, Casilla holds a .244/.301/.314 hitting line over nearly 1,000 major-league plate appearances. With the exception of a strong stretch in the middle months of the 2008 season, he has not shown any ability to produce at the big-league level, and he has consistently garnered poor ratings on the defensive side. Casilla maintains some upside thanks to his quality minor-league track record, but at this point it's tough to view him as anything other than a potential utility infielder, and the Twins have plenty of those lined up. On top of everything, I'm fairly certain he's out of options, and given that there may very well be no room for him on the Twins' roster come April, unloading him for a player that can help the team this year could be something of a coup.
I'm not all that keen on Kouzmanoff. He's a low-OBP guy and the Twins are currently in need of players who can get on base. But when beat writers are indicating to fans that opposing general managers are trying to scam the Twins by asking for Perkins and Casilla in a trade, they're planting the wrong types of ideas in people's heads. From an objective standpoint, neither of those players has very much trade value at this point.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Manship Has Landed
After complaining of shoulder pain several times over the past few weeks, Glen Perkins finally landed on the disabled list yesterday, although he and the team are still unsure as to what specifically is afflicting his ailing left shoulder since a recent MRI exam revealed no structural damage. Filling Perkins' vacant roster spot will be Jeff Manship, who was called up from Triple-A after going 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in eight starts as a member of the Rochester rotation. Manship will initially serve as a long reliever.
Last week I lamented that the Twins' "unaddressed bullpen has predictably caused plenty of problems for the Twins this year, and yet the team has done nothing to augment the unit other than calling up mediocre former minor-league starters like Sean Henn, Bobby Keppel, Brian Duensing and Kevin Mulvey." You can now add Manship to that list. I like the 25-year-old right-hander's long-term potential, but at this point he's not likely to be a whole lot more effective than Duensing or Mulvey. I suspect the reason he was called up, instead of someone like Rob Delaney or Anthony Slama who has the potential to be an actual difference-maker in the bullpen, is that Manship can be called upon to jump into the rotation should the struggles of Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak or Francisco Liriano continue (though Liriano took a very promising step last night against the Royals, which pleased me immensely).
Even accounting for his recent successful run in Rochester, Manship has posted a 4.08 ERA and 137-to-66 strikeout to walk ratio over 202 2/3 combined innings between Double-A and Triple-A. This after compiling a 2.42 ERA and 221-to-57 strikeout-to-walk ratio between rookie ball and two levels of Single-A. That might seem like a serious regression, but it's hardly unusual for college pitchers like Manship to dominate the early levels of the minors before getting a wake-up call against superior hitters at Double-A or Triple-A, and Manship's decreased strikeout rate and increased hittability in the upper levels certainly don't doom his chances to succeed as a big-league pitcher. One thing he has continued to do well, for instance, is induce ground balls and limit home runs. Manship has allowed only 20 long balls in 444 2/3 minor-league innings, including only three in 126 innings this year.
At the very least, Manship certainly figures to be a better performer than Perkins has been lately. Since the start of July, Perkins has yielded 28 earned runs on 50 hits over 29 1/3 innings spread across seven outings (six starts). During that span, he has posted a lousy 10-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and opponents have hit .376/.410/.556 against him. It seems quite clear that his ailing shoulder has impeded his performance -- which up to that point had been adequate -- and yet many fans continue to skewer him. In tweets, blog comments and message board postings I've perused over the past couple days, I've observed numerous people essentially labeling Perkins a wuss for putting himself on the DL (which appears to be what has happened here, for all intents and purposes). The guy battles through pain and tries to contribute for a couple months, then when it becomes clear that he's not helping the team's cause he pulls himself from the rotation, and yet in both instances he's a coward? Cut him some slack.
The Twins are still very much alive mathematically in the AL Central race, but with the way they've played lately, a playoff berth is looking like a less and less feasible possibility. It's starting to appear that the rest of this season might be best spent getting a look at what the Twins have in their Triple-A system and figuring out which players might be able to contribute to next year's cause. If that's the case, handing some big-league playing time to the likes of guys like Manship and Mulvey isn't a bad idea.
Last week I lamented that the Twins' "unaddressed bullpen has predictably caused plenty of problems for the Twins this year, and yet the team has done nothing to augment the unit other than calling up mediocre former minor-league starters like Sean Henn, Bobby Keppel, Brian Duensing and Kevin Mulvey." You can now add Manship to that list. I like the 25-year-old right-hander's long-term potential, but at this point he's not likely to be a whole lot more effective than Duensing or Mulvey. I suspect the reason he was called up, instead of someone like Rob Delaney or Anthony Slama who has the potential to be an actual difference-maker in the bullpen, is that Manship can be called upon to jump into the rotation should the struggles of Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak or Francisco Liriano continue (though Liriano took a very promising step last night against the Royals, which pleased me immensely).
Even accounting for his recent successful run in Rochester, Manship has posted a 4.08 ERA and 137-to-66 strikeout to walk ratio over 202 2/3 combined innings between Double-A and Triple-A. This after compiling a 2.42 ERA and 221-to-57 strikeout-to-walk ratio between rookie ball and two levels of Single-A. That might seem like a serious regression, but it's hardly unusual for college pitchers like Manship to dominate the early levels of the minors before getting a wake-up call against superior hitters at Double-A or Triple-A, and Manship's decreased strikeout rate and increased hittability in the upper levels certainly don't doom his chances to succeed as a big-league pitcher. One thing he has continued to do well, for instance, is induce ground balls and limit home runs. Manship has allowed only 20 long balls in 444 2/3 minor-league innings, including only three in 126 innings this year.
At the very least, Manship certainly figures to be a better performer than Perkins has been lately. Since the start of July, Perkins has yielded 28 earned runs on 50 hits over 29 1/3 innings spread across seven outings (six starts). During that span, he has posted a lousy 10-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and opponents have hit .376/.410/.556 against him. It seems quite clear that his ailing shoulder has impeded his performance -- which up to that point had been adequate -- and yet many fans continue to skewer him. In tweets, blog comments and message board postings I've perused over the past couple days, I've observed numerous people essentially labeling Perkins a wuss for putting himself on the DL (which appears to be what has happened here, for all intents and purposes). The guy battles through pain and tries to contribute for a couple months, then when it becomes clear that he's not helping the team's cause he pulls himself from the rotation, and yet in both instances he's a coward? Cut him some slack.
The Twins are still very much alive mathematically in the AL Central race, but with the way they've played lately, a playoff berth is looking like a less and less feasible possibility. It's starting to appear that the rest of this season might be best spent getting a look at what the Twins have in their Triple-A system and figuring out which players might be able to contribute to next year's cause. If that's the case, handing some big-league playing time to the likes of guys like Manship and Mulvey isn't a bad idea.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Perkins to Pen: The Right Move
When the Twins acquired Carl Pavano from the Indians on Friday to help stabilize a struggling rotation, debate immediately turned to which current Twins starter would be supplanted. It was quickly clear that the two candidates for a demotion to the bullpen were Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins, who have both struggled in recent starts while also battling various arm ailments.
That question was put to rest, at least for now, when the Twins announced that Perkins would be undergoing an MRI for his aching left shoulder and that the team will be "moving forward without him in the rotation." Liriano will draw another start in the second or third game of the Twins' upcoming series against the Royals, and will get at least one more chance to work past his severe command problems.
For some who have been pushing for Liriano's demotion to the bullpen (Sinker, Twins Geek, SBG and ubelmann, among others), I'm sure this comes as disappointing news. I tend to disagree -- I think the Twins have made the right move here, for a few reasons.
First, let me say that I agree with one of the main arguments in support of sending Liriano to the bullpen instead of Perkins, which is that Liriano is more likely to improve that unit. Many point to Liriano's strong secondary pitches and his .206/.292/.335 opposing line the first time through the batting order as reasons that the hurler has a good chance to succeed as a reliever. Those are both perfectly valid points and I fully connect with them.
But, I just think the Twins need Liriano in the rotation more right now. The Twins have gotten Quality Starts in only seven of their past 20 games, and all too often the bullpen hasn't even been put in position to hold a lead. Liriano has been frustrating to watch as of late, to be sure, but prior to his past two starts he had posted a solid 3.83 ERA in eight turns since the beginning of June, and had completed at least six innings in six of those games. It's also worth noting that this is the same, post-surgery Liriano who posted a 2.74 ERA and 60-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the Twins after returning to the big-league club in early August last season. Liriano was a big part of the reason the Twins were able to hang with the White Sox and force a 163rd game last year, and they'll need him to find that form -- or something close to it -- if they're going to make a similar push this season.
If Liriano can gain some semblance of command over his fastball, he can still perform like a top-of-the-rotation starter; he proved that last year. That's a pretty big "if," but the Twins are 5.5 games out of first place and fading fast, so it's simply something they're going to have to hope for. Liriano has the stuff to miss bats and has the talent to dominate good lineups. This team is going to need him in order to make the playoffs, much less win a series there.
Moreover, I just don't trust Perkins right now. It kind of stuns me that so many people are calling for Liriano's removal from the rotation considering how Perkins has looked in his most recent outings. Two of his past three starts -- a 1 IP, 8 ER performance against Oakland and a 4 IP, 8 ER performance against the Angels -- were worse than any outing Liriano has had this season. I actually think Perkins is a solid pitcher when healthy, but I did not for one second believe he was healthy even prior to the news that he was being scheduled for a "precautionary" MRI.
I've heard people mock Perkins for the way he seemingly comes out and complains about shoulder pain after every loss ("How convenient!"), but there is legitimate reason to believe that he's been pitching through some serious pain. Perkins has dealt with shoulder issues frequently throughout his pro career, and during that pro career he had not thrown more than 150 innings in any season prior to last year, when he racked up about 180. There is every reason to believe that this significant workload increase has taken a toll on his already problematic shoulder, and that this injury is now causing him serious issues. If he were to remain in the rotation, my sense was that Perkins would either be overly susceptible to disastrous outings like the ones mentioned above, or he'd end up on the disabled list. I just don't see him lasting as a starter for the remainder of this season.
The Twins' bullpen has been a sore point all year, but right now the rotation is a greater concern. On too many occasions, the Twins' starters have not been giving the team any reasonable chance at winning. It might be a stretch to believe that Liriano is going to turn things around and find anything resembling the form he showed during the final two months of last season. But we also know he's capable of it, and if he's healthy (which is far from certain given that he missed his most recent start due to forearm soreness), there doesn't seem to be any real physical reason he can't perform in a similar manner down the stretch this season.
It's a long-shot. But I certainly like Liriano's chances of providing above-average production as a member of this rotation in the final seven weeks of the season than a sore-shouldered Perkins who, even at full health, is probably about a league-average starter.
That question was put to rest, at least for now, when the Twins announced that Perkins would be undergoing an MRI for his aching left shoulder and that the team will be "moving forward without him in the rotation." Liriano will draw another start in the second or third game of the Twins' upcoming series against the Royals, and will get at least one more chance to work past his severe command problems.
For some who have been pushing for Liriano's demotion to the bullpen (Sinker, Twins Geek, SBG and ubelmann, among others), I'm sure this comes as disappointing news. I tend to disagree -- I think the Twins have made the right move here, for a few reasons.
First, let me say that I agree with one of the main arguments in support of sending Liriano to the bullpen instead of Perkins, which is that Liriano is more likely to improve that unit. Many point to Liriano's strong secondary pitches and his .206/.292/.335 opposing line the first time through the batting order as reasons that the hurler has a good chance to succeed as a reliever. Those are both perfectly valid points and I fully connect with them.
But, I just think the Twins need Liriano in the rotation more right now. The Twins have gotten Quality Starts in only seven of their past 20 games, and all too often the bullpen hasn't even been put in position to hold a lead. Liriano has been frustrating to watch as of late, to be sure, but prior to his past two starts he had posted a solid 3.83 ERA in eight turns since the beginning of June, and had completed at least six innings in six of those games. It's also worth noting that this is the same, post-surgery Liriano who posted a 2.74 ERA and 60-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the Twins after returning to the big-league club in early August last season. Liriano was a big part of the reason the Twins were able to hang with the White Sox and force a 163rd game last year, and they'll need him to find that form -- or something close to it -- if they're going to make a similar push this season.
If Liriano can gain some semblance of command over his fastball, he can still perform like a top-of-the-rotation starter; he proved that last year. That's a pretty big "if," but the Twins are 5.5 games out of first place and fading fast, so it's simply something they're going to have to hope for. Liriano has the stuff to miss bats and has the talent to dominate good lineups. This team is going to need him in order to make the playoffs, much less win a series there.
Moreover, I just don't trust Perkins right now. It kind of stuns me that so many people are calling for Liriano's removal from the rotation considering how Perkins has looked in his most recent outings. Two of his past three starts -- a 1 IP, 8 ER performance against Oakland and a 4 IP, 8 ER performance against the Angels -- were worse than any outing Liriano has had this season. I actually think Perkins is a solid pitcher when healthy, but I did not for one second believe he was healthy even prior to the news that he was being scheduled for a "precautionary" MRI.
I've heard people mock Perkins for the way he seemingly comes out and complains about shoulder pain after every loss ("How convenient!"), but there is legitimate reason to believe that he's been pitching through some serious pain. Perkins has dealt with shoulder issues frequently throughout his pro career, and during that pro career he had not thrown more than 150 innings in any season prior to last year, when he racked up about 180. There is every reason to believe that this significant workload increase has taken a toll on his already problematic shoulder, and that this injury is now causing him serious issues. If he were to remain in the rotation, my sense was that Perkins would either be overly susceptible to disastrous outings like the ones mentioned above, or he'd end up on the disabled list. I just don't see him lasting as a starter for the remainder of this season.
The Twins' bullpen has been a sore point all year, but right now the rotation is a greater concern. On too many occasions, the Twins' starters have not been giving the team any reasonable chance at winning. It might be a stretch to believe that Liriano is going to turn things around and find anything resembling the form he showed during the final two months of last season. But we also know he's capable of it, and if he's healthy (which is far from certain given that he missed his most recent start due to forearm soreness), there doesn't seem to be any real physical reason he can't perform in a similar manner down the stretch this season.
It's a long-shot. But I certainly like Liriano's chances of providing above-average production as a member of this rotation in the final seven weeks of the season than a sore-shouldered Perkins who, even at full health, is probably about a league-average starter.
Saturday, August 08, 2009
Pavano
If there's one thing capable of prompting a Saturday post on this blog, it's a post-deadline waiver trade for a mediocre veteran starting pitcher. So let's get to it.
The Twins acquired Carl Pavano from the Indians yesterday in return for a player to be named later. The 33-year-old right-hander will add that ever-valuable veteran presence while jumping into the rotation and creating additional depth in what has become a paper-thin starting pitching corps. R.A. Dickey gets a one-way ticket to Rochester to create room on the 25-man roster.
First, I'll say that I actually don't mind Pavano. When the Indians signed him this offseason for $1.5 million plus incentives, I spoke rather glowingly of the move, giving the following brief analysis:
The relatively impressive peripherals don't change the fact that Pavano has been fairly hittable this year, and given the fact that he's 33 and has never been much better than average in his career (with the exception of a season or two), it's not likely that he'll step in and change the fortunes of the Twins rotation. What he does do is add much-needed depth to a pitching staff that was one more Glen Perkins shoulder flare-up or Francisco Liriano control meltdown away from turning to Kevin Mulvey as a starter. That in and of itself makes this a pretty good move, particularly when you consider that the Twins aren't likely to end up losing anything of much value in the deal. The PTBNL is probably conditional based on Pavano's performance, but will likely end up being an older farmhand whose chances of making a serious impact at the major-league level are minimal.
Now we turn to the predominant question at hand: who will Pavano replace in the rotation? It's almost certainly going to be one of the Twins' struggling lefty starters; Pavano will start tonight in place of Perkins, but Ron Gardenhire has stated that the team has yet to make a decision whether Liriano or Perkins will be the odd man out in the long run. Twins Geek seems to think Pavano replacing Liriano is a foregone conclusion, and Howard Sinker was strongly advocating for Liriano's dismissal from the rotation on his blog just the other day. I disagree with both of them. But that's a matter that I'll tackle another day -- probably Monday.
The Twins acquired Carl Pavano from the Indians yesterday in return for a player to be named later. The 33-year-old right-hander will add that ever-valuable veteran presence while jumping into the rotation and creating additional depth in what has become a paper-thin starting pitching corps. R.A. Dickey gets a one-way ticket to Rochester to create room on the 25-man roster.
First, I'll say that I actually don't mind Pavano. When the Indians signed him this offseason for $1.5 million plus incentives, I spoke rather glowingly of the move, giving the following brief analysis:
I’m not a big fan of Pavano, but he’s 33 years old and has a history of pitching well. If he stays healthy, he can probably [be] counted on for close to league average production; if he doesn’t stay healthy, the Indians aren’t on the hook for much money at all. This is what a low-risk veteran signing should look like. When you hear complaints about the Twins handing $5 million to Livan Hernandez and $3 million to Ramon Ortiz, this is why.Pavano has indeed stayed relatively healthy, and while his production up to this point doesn't look all that good at a glance (9-8 record, 5.37 ERA), it's worth noting that he has performed better than his results would indicate. The mention of Hernandez in the above quote seems apt, since I would basically describe this year's version of Pavano as a rich man's Livan. He has given up a lot of hits and home runs (.299 BAA with 19 HR allowed in 125 2/3 innings) but he actually hurls a respectable fastball which averages over 90 mph, and he has posted a solid 88-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio while limiting baserunners to a large degree thanks to his quality control. His 4.15 xFIP suggests that if he keeps pitching the way he has up to this point, he'll probably be good for an ERA lower than 5.37 from here on out.
The relatively impressive peripherals don't change the fact that Pavano has been fairly hittable this year, and given the fact that he's 33 and has never been much better than average in his career (with the exception of a season or two), it's not likely that he'll step in and change the fortunes of the Twins rotation. What he does do is add much-needed depth to a pitching staff that was one more Glen Perkins shoulder flare-up or Francisco Liriano control meltdown away from turning to Kevin Mulvey as a starter. That in and of itself makes this a pretty good move, particularly when you consider that the Twins aren't likely to end up losing anything of much value in the deal. The PTBNL is probably conditional based on Pavano's performance, but will likely end up being an older farmhand whose chances of making a serious impact at the major-league level are minimal.
Now we turn to the predominant question at hand: who will Pavano replace in the rotation? It's almost certainly going to be one of the Twins' struggling lefty starters; Pavano will start tonight in place of Perkins, but Ron Gardenhire has stated that the team has yet to make a decision whether Liriano or Perkins will be the odd man out in the long run. Twins Geek seems to think Pavano replacing Liriano is a foregone conclusion, and Howard Sinker was strongly advocating for Liriano's dismissal from the rotation on his blog just the other day. I disagree with both of them. But that's a matter that I'll tackle another day -- probably Monday.
Thursday, July 02, 2009
Game Notes
With their 5-1 victory over the Royals yesterday, the Twins sealed a fourth consecutive road series victory and moved two games above .500 for the first time all season. With the Tigers losing in Oakland by the same score, the Twins moved within three games of first place and will have a chance to vault into a first-place tie this weekend, when they face the Tigers at the Metrodome.
Glen Perkins picked up the victory in yesterday's game, though he was none too dominant. The left-hander allowed just one run over seven innings, but did surrender 10 hits while managing only one strikeout. It has been a very up-and-down year for Perkins; he was dominant over his first three starts, fairly wretched over his next five before going on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, and has pitched quite well since returning from the DL. This breaks down to some pretty interesting month-by-month splits:
April: 4 starts, 2.48 ERA, 0 HR allowed
May: 4 starts, 10.00 ERA, 6 HR allowed
June: 4 starts, 2.67 ERA, 1 HR allowed
Perkins' shoulder issues cropped up in May so it's pretty easy to excuse his performance during that month; during April and June his results have been fantastic. I don't think Perkins is as good as those April/June numbers suggest, and a fly ball pitcher who strikes out as few batters as he does is bound to hit rough patches even when healthy, but it's hard not to be encouraged but what we've seen from him. All in all, I think Perkins' current .500 record and 4.38 ERA are fairly indicative of the type of pitcher he is, but that's just dandy production from a dirt-cheap No. 5 starter.
Offensively, the Twins were hardly overwhelming but they got the job done. Joe Mauer broke out of his recent mini-slump by reaching base in all five of his plate appearances. Michael Cuddyer ripped his 12th homer and walked twice, and continues to look very much like the 2006 version of himself. The rest of the team was pretty quiet offensively, going just 4-for-31 with zero extra-base hits, which marks a continuation of a disturbing offensive trend for the Twins.
During the nine-game road trip they just completed, the Twins averaged only 4.1 runs per game. That the team still managed a very good 6-3 record during that span is certainly a testament to how well the pitching staff performed, but that type of run production isn't going to cut it going forward. Hopefully the return to the Metrodome this weekend will jolt some life into this offense.
Glen Perkins picked up the victory in yesterday's game, though he was none too dominant. The left-hander allowed just one run over seven innings, but did surrender 10 hits while managing only one strikeout. It has been a very up-and-down year for Perkins; he was dominant over his first three starts, fairly wretched over his next five before going on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, and has pitched quite well since returning from the DL. This breaks down to some pretty interesting month-by-month splits:
April: 4 starts, 2.48 ERA, 0 HR allowed
May: 4 starts, 10.00 ERA, 6 HR allowed
June: 4 starts, 2.67 ERA, 1 HR allowed
Perkins' shoulder issues cropped up in May so it's pretty easy to excuse his performance during that month; during April and June his results have been fantastic. I don't think Perkins is as good as those April/June numbers suggest, and a fly ball pitcher who strikes out as few batters as he does is bound to hit rough patches even when healthy, but it's hard not to be encouraged but what we've seen from him. All in all, I think Perkins' current .500 record and 4.38 ERA are fairly indicative of the type of pitcher he is, but that's just dandy production from a dirt-cheap No. 5 starter.
Offensively, the Twins were hardly overwhelming but they got the job done. Joe Mauer broke out of his recent mini-slump by reaching base in all five of his plate appearances. Michael Cuddyer ripped his 12th homer and walked twice, and continues to look very much like the 2006 version of himself. The rest of the team was pretty quiet offensively, going just 4-for-31 with zero extra-base hits, which marks a continuation of a disturbing offensive trend for the Twins.
During the nine-game road trip they just completed, the Twins averaged only 4.1 runs per game. That the team still managed a very good 6-3 record during that span is certainly a testament to how well the pitching staff performed, but that type of run production isn't going to cut it going forward. Hopefully the return to the Metrodome this weekend will jolt some life into this offense.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Rough Starts
Here are the basic pitching statistics for the Twins' five current starters as of today:
Francisco Liriano is 0-4 with a 7.06 ERA
Scott Baker is 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA
Nick Blackburn is 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA
Kevin Slowey is 2-0 with a 5.89 ERA
Glen Perkins is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA
Shoddy, underperforming starting pitching early in the season -- this feels vaguely familiar. On April 24, 2006...
Johan Santana was 0-3 with a 4.81 ERA.
Brad Radke was 2-2 with a 7.50 ERA
Carlos Silva was 1-3 with an 8.33 ERA.
Kyle Lohse was 1-1 with an 11.57 ERA
Scott Baker was 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA
Now, this comparison is obviously to be taken with a grain of salt since the differences between the rotation that opened the 2006 season and the Twins' current stable of starting pitchers are vast. The point of bringing up these stat lines is to remind everyone that there's a recent local precedent for almost roundly underwhelming starting pitching performances out of the gate, and it doesn't necessarily doom an entire season.
In '06, Silva and Lohse never really rebounded from their poor starts, as Silva went on to post an 11-15 record and 5.94 ERA while Lohse was booted from the rotation and later traded to the Reds with a 7.07 ERA. Baker fell off after his solid start and was also eventually removed from the rotation. Yet, Santana came back strong and ended up winning the Cy Young Award and Radke -- a pitcher with notable similarities to a few members of the current staff -- also rebounded to become a key contributor the team's amazing second-half run.
What the 2009 Twins lack is a Francisco Liriano -- or, to a lesser extent, a Boof Bonser -- who can step in from the minors and energize the rotation. Therefore, internal improvement will be the key factor for this current group. Based on their career histories and the way they finished last year, there's little reason to believe that Liriano and Baker will continue to pitch this poorly unless there are underlying health issues. Meanwhile, Slowey already showed signs of getting back on track with a very strong showing last Saturday, and he'll look to continue that progress tomorrow night against the Indians.
I'd be lying if I said I weren't somewhat concerned with the dud performances the Twins' starting pitchers have been putting forth on most nights, but I also have a very difficult time believing this nearly team-wide slump is going to last. These guys are too talented to continue getting hit this hard. Hopefully the turn-around begins tonight in Cleveland.
Francisco Liriano is 0-4 with a 7.06 ERA
Scott Baker is 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA
Nick Blackburn is 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA
Kevin Slowey is 2-0 with a 5.89 ERA
Glen Perkins is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA
Shoddy, underperforming starting pitching early in the season -- this feels vaguely familiar. On April 24, 2006...
Johan Santana was 0-3 with a 4.81 ERA.
Brad Radke was 2-2 with a 7.50 ERA
Carlos Silva was 1-3 with an 8.33 ERA.
Kyle Lohse was 1-1 with an 11.57 ERA
Scott Baker was 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA
Now, this comparison is obviously to be taken with a grain of salt since the differences between the rotation that opened the 2006 season and the Twins' current stable of starting pitchers are vast. The point of bringing up these stat lines is to remind everyone that there's a recent local precedent for almost roundly underwhelming starting pitching performances out of the gate, and it doesn't necessarily doom an entire season.
In '06, Silva and Lohse never really rebounded from their poor starts, as Silva went on to post an 11-15 record and 5.94 ERA while Lohse was booted from the rotation and later traded to the Reds with a 7.07 ERA. Baker fell off after his solid start and was also eventually removed from the rotation. Yet, Santana came back strong and ended up winning the Cy Young Award and Radke -- a pitcher with notable similarities to a few members of the current staff -- also rebounded to become a key contributor the team's amazing second-half run.
What the 2009 Twins lack is a Francisco Liriano -- or, to a lesser extent, a Boof Bonser -- who can step in from the minors and energize the rotation. Therefore, internal improvement will be the key factor for this current group. Based on their career histories and the way they finished last year, there's little reason to believe that Liriano and Baker will continue to pitch this poorly unless there are underlying health issues. Meanwhile, Slowey already showed signs of getting back on track with a very strong showing last Saturday, and he'll look to continue that progress tomorrow night against the Indians.
I'd be lying if I said I weren't somewhat concerned with the dud performances the Twins' starting pitchers have been putting forth on most nights, but I also have a very difficult time believing this nearly team-wide slump is going to last. These guys are too talented to continue getting hit this hard. Hopefully the turn-around begins tonight in Cleveland.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Quick and Painful
Yesterday, Glen Perkins finally answered the Twins' call for a strong outing from a starting pitcher. In fact, he went above and beyond, tossing eight innings of one-run ball. Unfortunately, the rest of the team didn't show much appreciation, delivering a punchless performance against Jarrod Washburn and dropping the series finale 2-0 to finish with a split in their opening set against the Mariners.
The game was reminiscent of so many we've seen from this team before. Going against a mediocre left-hander, the Twins could never string together any type of rally, managing just five hits (zero for extra bases) and failing to move a runner past first base until the eighth inning. If there was one positive to be drawn from the game, it may have been that those who cut out of work to head over to the Metrodome had plenty of time to go back to work and finish their day (then again, maybe that's not really a positive). The contest barely ran longer than two hours thanks to the quick work of Washburn, who posted a 4.69 ERA last season and a 6.60 ERA this spring.
A series victory would have been nice entering this weekend's series at U.S. Cellular, where Twins pitchers surrendered a 928 OPS and 6.80 ERA last season. As it stands, the Twins will have a tough time leaving Chicago with a winning record. Tonight they'll be trotting out R.A. Dickey, who has a 6.31 career ERA as a starter, and on Sunday the White Sox will start Mark Buehrle, a much tougher lefty than Washburn. I'm confident that the Twins will get on track and start rattling off some wins at some point, but I'd be surprised if it were this weekend.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Stretching Your Money
Recently, the White Sox signed Gavin Floyd to a four-year, $15.5 million deal with a $9 million option for 2013. If those terms sound familar, it's because they are basically identical to those of the contract the Twins handed Scott Baker earlier this month: four years, $15.25 million with a $9.25 option for 2013.On the surface, the two pitchers may seem similar. Both put up solid numbers last year, with Floyd going 17-8 and posting a 3.84 ERA in Chicago while Baker went 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA for the Twins. On closer inspection, however, we see that Baker was the better pitcher last year, and has been a far better pitcher in general.
Baker struck out 141 batters while issuing only 42 walks for a 3.4 K/BB ratio that easily trumped Floyd's 2.1 ratio. Baker's 1.18 WHIP -- which ranked fifth in the AL -- bested Floyd's 1.26. And while Baker struggled a bit with the long ball, allowing 20 home runs in 172 1/3 innings, Floyd was worse, as he coughed up 30 gopher balls in 206 1/3 frames.
The most important thing to note, though, is that while the disparity between the numbers posted by these two players last year is not necessarily huge, Baker's 2008 season looks much less like a fluke in the context of his overall career. Last year, Baker was backing up a solid 2007 campaign in which he'd gone 9-9 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, whereas Floyd had gone 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.48 WHIP that season. For his big-league career, Floyd holds a 4.98 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, while Baker stands at 4.27 and 1.29.
A quick look at the FIP (a measure which strips away extraneous circumstances and accounts only for events which a pitcher has direct control over: namely strikeouts, walks and homers) for both players in 2008 reveals the gap between performance and results. Baker's FIP was 3.85, suggesting that a bit of luck was involved with his 3.45 ERA. Floyd's FIP was 4.78, suggesting a larger gap in performance and results. Floyd's runs against average was 4.67, meaning that a whole bunch of unearned runs came across the plate against him that weren't reflected in his ERA. His home run per fly ball rate was the lowest it's been in four years, meaning that if we normalized that figure out to the rest of his career, he'd have surrendered even more than 30 bombs, a tally which already ranked second in the AL.
It seems fair to say that Baker's successful results last year were the result of pitching very well. Floyd's successful results had more to do with good run support and luck. With that being the case, a better comparison for Floyd on the Twins' staff might be Glen Perkins.
Like Floyd, Perkins was a very nice prospect coming up through the minors who has seen his strikeout rate dip since reaching the majors (though the drop-off has been much steeper in Perkins' case). Also like Floyd, Perkins pitched over his head last year, going 12-4 with a 4.41 ERA despite allowing an 837 OPS and finishing with a 5.24 FIP. As pitchers, the two are fairly similar -- both allow a fairly high number of baserunners, both give up a lot of fly balls (and a lot of homers) and neither strikes many people out. Perkins is younger and less experienced so he may have more room to grow, but Floyd probably is the better pitcher as things currently stand. Going forward, I'd say the two have a similar outlook. Either one is capable of putting together a quality season, but both have significant flaws that can catch up with them at any time. Both these possibilities were on display last season, as each starter pitched fairly well over the first half of the season but got worse as the year went on.
Anyway, all this wordy analysis is a long-winded way of making a simple point: within the past month or so, the Twins have signed their Opening Day starter and presumptive ace to the same contract that the White Sox handed a pitcher who aligns much more closely with the Twins' No. 5 starter. I'm not saying that necessarily means that Baker is underpaid, or that Floyd is overpaid, but it's the way these things work. And from the Twins perspective, it's a pretty sweet deal.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher
I took part in an AL Central preview podcast last week in which Seth Stohs interviewed bloggers from each division team and got their thoughts on the division. When talking about the Twins, the part of the team that nearly everyone mentioned first was the starting rotation. Fans of other teams (and the other teams themselves, I'm sure) greatly respect the Twins' stable of starting pitchers, and with good reason. It's a young and talented group that is very solid one-through-five; in fact, their weakest link is a hard-throwing left-hander who was formerly a top prospect and who just posted a 4.41 ERA in his rookie season.
Regression and injuries are bound to occur, but entering the season, the rotation appears to be the Twins' strongest unit. The depth behind these five is fairly questionable, but if everyone can stay on the field and continue to improve, this group has the potential to carry the Twins into October. Let's take a look at each member of The Fab Five:
Scott Baker
2008 Stats: 172.1 IP, 11-4, 3.45 ERA, 141 K / 42 BB, 1.18 WHIP
At the beginning of the 2007 season, Baker was an afterthought in the minds of most Twins fans, as he was coming off a putrid 2006 campaign and had become lost in the shuffle behind guys like Johan Santana, Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva, Kevin Slowey, Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson. Two years later, hes slated to be the team's Opening Day starter, and with good reason. Throughout the 2008 season, Baker was the Twins most steady and reliable starter. While he might not match his 3.45 ERA from a year ago, he should continue to be a rock at the top of the Twins' rotation.
Francisco Liriano
2008 Stats: 76 IP, 6-4, 3.91 ERA, 67 K / 32 BB, 1.40 WHIP
When he first joined the Twins' rotation in 2006, Liriano had a pretty spectacular stretch, going 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over his first 10 starts. Last year, when he rejoined the Twins' rotation in August after spending three months in the minors, Liriano brought back fond memories, going 5-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his first eight starts. Of course, last year's Liriano wasn't quite as electric as the rookie version, and his overall season last year wasn't nearly as amazing due to the struggles in April and late September, but Liriano reminded us all that he's capable of dominating major-league hitters even after undergoing Tommy John surgery. A full season of performance anywhere close to the level he pitched at in August of last year, and Liriano is an ace type pitcher and a terrific complement to Baker atop the rotation. Frisco's surgically repaired elbow held up through 199 1/3 total innings last season; we'll be crossing our fingers and hoping it can survive a similar workload this year.
Kevin Slowey
2008 Stats: 160.1 IP, 12-11, 3.99 ERA, 123 K / 24 BB, 1.15 WHIP
Slowey might be the starter I'm most excited to watch this year. He had his hiccups in his first full season last year, but also tossed a few absolute gems (two shutouts and a 12-strikeout performance against Oakland come to mind). Slowey is not a fireballer and he lacks great secondary stuff, but he's one of the most poised and intelligent pitchers I've seen. He'll always give up a fair number of homers, but as long as he can continue to limit their damage by keeping runners off the bases (his WHIP would have ranked fourth in the AL last year had he not narrowly missed qualifying), he'll be successful.
Glen Perkins
2008 Stats: 151 IP, 12-4, 4.41 ERA, 74 K / 39 BB, 1.47 WHIP
2008 Stats: 193.3 IP, 11-11, 4.05 ERA, 96 K / 39 BB, 1.36 WHIP
It was a surprise to most that Blackburn made the Twins' rotation out of spring training last year. It was probably a surprise to all that he stayed there for the whole season, posting solid numbers and leading the team in innings. Aside from his excellent walk rate, nothing on Blackburn's stat sheet jumps out at you. He had a .500 record and a middling strikeout rate. He gave up a fairly high number of hits and gave up some homers. His ERA was exactly league average. Yet, getting that kind of production over 200 innings from the back end of your rotation -- particularly from a guy who had zero experience in a big-league rotation -- has plenty of value, which is why Blackburn received a few Rookie of the Year votes. Blackburn must now prove that his successful '08 season was not a fluke, but with his ability to attack the strike zone and induce ground balls at a solid rate, he's hardly a major concern.
Regression and injuries are bound to occur, but entering the season, the rotation appears to be the Twins' strongest unit. The depth behind these five is fairly questionable, but if everyone can stay on the field and continue to improve, this group has the potential to carry the Twins into October. Let's take a look at each member of The Fab Five:
Scott Baker
2008 Stats: 172.1 IP, 11-4, 3.45 ERA, 141 K / 42 BB, 1.18 WHIP
At the beginning of the 2007 season, Baker was an afterthought in the minds of most Twins fans, as he was coming off a putrid 2006 campaign and had become lost in the shuffle behind guys like Johan Santana, Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva, Kevin Slowey, Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson. Two years later, hes slated to be the team's Opening Day starter, and with good reason. Throughout the 2008 season, Baker was the Twins most steady and reliable starter. While he might not match his 3.45 ERA from a year ago, he should continue to be a rock at the top of the Twins' rotation.
Francisco Liriano
2008 Stats: 76 IP, 6-4, 3.91 ERA, 67 K / 32 BB, 1.40 WHIP
When he first joined the Twins' rotation in 2006, Liriano had a pretty spectacular stretch, going 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over his first 10 starts. Last year, when he rejoined the Twins' rotation in August after spending three months in the minors, Liriano brought back fond memories, going 5-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his first eight starts. Of course, last year's Liriano wasn't quite as electric as the rookie version, and his overall season last year wasn't nearly as amazing due to the struggles in April and late September, but Liriano reminded us all that he's capable of dominating major-league hitters even after undergoing Tommy John surgery. A full season of performance anywhere close to the level he pitched at in August of last year, and Liriano is an ace type pitcher and a terrific complement to Baker atop the rotation. Frisco's surgically repaired elbow held up through 199 1/3 total innings last season; we'll be crossing our fingers and hoping it can survive a similar workload this year.
Kevin Slowey
2008 Stats: 160.1 IP, 12-11, 3.99 ERA, 123 K / 24 BB, 1.15 WHIP
Slowey might be the starter I'm most excited to watch this year. He had his hiccups in his first full season last year, but also tossed a few absolute gems (two shutouts and a 12-strikeout performance against Oakland come to mind). Slowey is not a fireballer and he lacks great secondary stuff, but he's one of the most poised and intelligent pitchers I've seen. He'll always give up a fair number of homers, but as long as he can continue to limit their damage by keeping runners off the bases (his WHIP would have ranked fourth in the AL last year had he not narrowly missed qualifying), he'll be successful.
Glen Perkins
2008 Stats: 151 IP, 12-4, 4.41 ERA, 74 K / 39 BB, 1.47 WHIP
Perkins will probably slot as the Twins No. 4 starter due to Ron Gardenhire's preference to alternate righties and lefties in the rotation (even though this doesn't really matter -- there will be two consecutive right-handers no matter what alignment he chooses), for all intents and purposes he enters the season as the team's fifth starter. He's probably the guy worth worrying about most; with his high hit rate, low ground ball rate and paltry strikeout rate, his 12 wins and 3.96 ERA entering September last year seemed like the stuff of smoke and mirrors. Sure enough, over the season's final month he posted a 7.45 ERA while allowing 33 hits and seven homers in 19 1/3 innings. I remain bullish on Perkins though, and while he's not destined to post outstanding numbers if he pitches the way he did last year, by continuing to make adjustments he can certainly hold up as a quality back-of-the-rotation starter. It'd be great if he could remember how to miss bats the way he did in the minors, where he struck out more than a batter per inning.
Nick Blackburn2008 Stats: 193.3 IP, 11-11, 4.05 ERA, 96 K / 39 BB, 1.36 WHIP
It was a surprise to most that Blackburn made the Twins' rotation out of spring training last year. It was probably a surprise to all that he stayed there for the whole season, posting solid numbers and leading the team in innings. Aside from his excellent walk rate, nothing on Blackburn's stat sheet jumps out at you. He had a .500 record and a middling strikeout rate. He gave up a fairly high number of hits and gave up some homers. His ERA was exactly league average. Yet, getting that kind of production over 200 innings from the back end of your rotation -- particularly from a guy who had zero experience in a big-league rotation -- has plenty of value, which is why Blackburn received a few Rookie of the Year votes. Blackburn must now prove that his successful '08 season was not a fluke, but with his ability to attack the strike zone and induce ground balls at a solid rate, he's hardly a major concern.
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Crunch Time
As many of you have probably noticed, posting has been a bit thin around here as of late. Mr. Mosvick has been dealing with interviews and all sorts of other law school related stuff down in Virginia. Meanwhile, I've been handling a move into a new place (which left me without Internet for a while) and have also been dealing with a heavier workload than ever over at Rotoworld as many of the site's baseball writers switch over to football coverage. Things have been hectic.
Of course, the Twins' play has not exactly inspired me to go out of my way and write about them. After a poor road trip in which the team blew lead after lead and failed to gain ground on the White Sox, the Twins dropped two more winnable games at home against the Tigers this weekend, losing another game in the standings and falling to 2.5 games out with 19 left to play.
They Twins have their work cut out for them. They're not closing out games and the White Sox keep pulling off these improbable victories (thank you K-Rod, for choosing such an appropriate time to blow a save on Saturday). Yet, all is not terribly grim. The Twins open a three-game series against the Royals tonight, while the White Sox battle through a four-game set in Toronto against a hot Blue Jays team. The Twins MUST take care of business in this series against KC, because afterward they launch another difficult road trip -- this time a 10-gamer that will take them through Baltimore, Cleveland and Tampa Bay -- and if things don't go well during this stretch the much-hyped series against the White Sox on September 23-25 might not end up carrying a whole lot of meaning.
Here are some notes as we enter this intense final stretch...
* For a second consecutive start on Sunday, Glen Perkins was staked a relatively comfortable lead only to watch it disappear in the middle innings. In his previous start, Perkins allowed the Blue Jays to close a four-run gap to one by surrendering back-to-back homers in the fifth inning. On Sunday, he coughed up a 4-2 lead in the sixth inning by allowing the Tigers to go homer-double-single-double-flyout-walk before being removed with one out and the go-ahead run on second. Craig Breslow entered and immediately allowed that runner from second to score, giving the Tigers a lead they would not relinquish.
We have long expressed concern on this blog that Perkins seemed like the most likely among the Twins' group of young starters to see some regression as the season went on. He has now surrendered four-plus earned runs in six of his past nine appearances (though he has sprinkled a pair of eight-inning shutout performances in there), and has given up 11 home runs during that span. His issues seem especially prominent in the later innings. This may be a result of opposing lineups adjusting to Perkins the second or third time through the order, or it may be a result of Perkins wearing down as the game goes on. The latter explanation wouldn't be terribly surprising, since Perkins has now totaled 175 2/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors this year, which is foreign territory as he's never come anywhere close to throwing that many innings in a pro season before.
* Bobby Korecky, Philip Humber and Jose Mijares are up to help the Twins bullpen, but they haven't been called on much up to this point. Korecky and Humber have each made on appearance (and neither were impressive) while Mijares has yet to take the hill for the Twins.
With nearly every reliever in the Twins' bullpen struggling, one might suggest that the team might as well hand the ball to these inexperienced hurlers, each of whom finished strong in their respective minor-league campaigns. Yet, as Korecky and Humber displayed when they were both shelled in Thursday night's game against the Blue Jays, these guys are just as capable of getting knocked around as any of the veterans in the pen. What this team needs is for Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain and Dennys Reyes to buckle down and start reliably getting some outs.
* American League MVP candidates have been dropping like flies. With potential front-runners Ian Kinsler and now Carlos Quentin likely to miss the rest of the season, Justin Morneau's chances at capturing the award for a second time in three seasons greatly improve. While his home run total isn't terribly impressive, Morneau is hitting for a very good average and has been a run-producing machine, as indicated by the three four-RBI efforts in his past seven games. If the Twins can rally and win the division while Morneau continues to do his thing over the final three weeks of the season, I think Morneau's chances of winning the MVP are very, very good. Milton Bradley and Josh Hamilton have both had a tremendous offensive seasons but may see their consideration wane due to the Rangers' unimpressive placement in the standings. Dustin Pedroia, who leads the league in hitting, should also be a top contender. Cliff Lee, a shoe-in for the Cy Young, should also get some MVP votes. The fact that the Indians have been disappointing certainly has nothing to do with him.
* On a final note, I'll mention that last Thursday's column was the 1,000th post on this blog. Hooray us!
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Another opportunity lost
There was some mystery to the Twins offense last night. Whats the mystery here? The mystery is discovering how the Twins offense managed to score five runs against the Blue Jays last night, in a loss nonetheless, without a single extra-base hit. One run can across on a wild pitch, another on a sacrifice fly, and one more on a two-out single by Delmon Young. In total, though, the Twins had nine singles and two walks, but still seemed lucky to get the five runs they did, even though their two stolen bases also helped them.
Of course, while the offense didn't pack too much punch in providing a solid amount of run support, the pitching staff's failure may be the bigger story of the loss. In a game in which a win would have given the Twins the lead in the AL central, the pitching staff was the true culprit, allowing 17 hits and three walks for a total of 20 baserunners while giving up seven runs. Therefore, the pitching staff was also somewhat lucky in that they didn't manage to give up more runs, helped by the Blue Jays offense leaving seven baserunners in scoring position with two outs.
Five of the Blue Jays hits went for extra-bases, including three home runs, two off of starter Glen Perkins, who did not look very good at all. Perkins' line is quite ugly: 5 innings, 10 hits, 4 earned runs, one walk, and one strikeout. In other words, Perkins was constantly putting on baserunners, getting hit hard, and was not showing any dominance at all. This may be somewhat closer to the real Perkins fans should expect, since his season stats are anything but impressive.
Sure, Perkins has a 12-3 record, but anyone reading this site knows that we do not consider a win-loss record to be that helpful in evaluate a pitcher's success, his future potential, or his efficiency. In 136 2/3 innings, Perkins has given up 160 hits, 20 home runs, and 62 earned runs (for a 4.08 ERA) while striking out 64 and walking 34. The walk rate is fine and above average, but a strikeout rate of 4.31/9 is terrible and a 1.39 WHIP is bad as well.
Fans should note that Perkins' xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) is 4.94, well above his current ERA, which that Perkins has certainly be lucky and regression towards the mean should not be surprising. In fact, if there is one young pitcher he seems bound to disappoint fans, at least somewhat, its Perkins, because he has the worst peripherals of anyone in the rotation and stats like xFIP suggest that fans should lower their expectations. Unfortunately, it comes at a bad time, as the Twins have often been in close games like yesterday's lately that they have lost.
Of course, I cannot put the blame purely on Perkins' woeful starting pitching. Boof Bonser also gave up a two-run home run in relief and Matt Guerrier continued to get beaten around, giving up three hits and a run in just 2/3 innings. (In fairness, he had 5 1/3 scoreless innings before last night, so he hasn't been utterly hittable of late, but his second half regression is hardly a secret) But the remedies to continue winning are simple and hard at the same time: the Twins need more consistent punch and the offense isn't going to win many games without hitting extra-base hits, but the pitching staff also needs to do its job more consistently. Its too bad, then, that it still appears that in some instances, fans may need to lower expectations and face some stubborn realities.
Of course, while the offense didn't pack too much punch in providing a solid amount of run support, the pitching staff's failure may be the bigger story of the loss. In a game in which a win would have given the Twins the lead in the AL central, the pitching staff was the true culprit, allowing 17 hits and three walks for a total of 20 baserunners while giving up seven runs. Therefore, the pitching staff was also somewhat lucky in that they didn't manage to give up more runs, helped by the Blue Jays offense leaving seven baserunners in scoring position with two outs.
Five of the Blue Jays hits went for extra-bases, including three home runs, two off of starter Glen Perkins, who did not look very good at all. Perkins' line is quite ugly: 5 innings, 10 hits, 4 earned runs, one walk, and one strikeout. In other words, Perkins was constantly putting on baserunners, getting hit hard, and was not showing any dominance at all. This may be somewhat closer to the real Perkins fans should expect, since his season stats are anything but impressive.
Sure, Perkins has a 12-3 record, but anyone reading this site knows that we do not consider a win-loss record to be that helpful in evaluate a pitcher's success, his future potential, or his efficiency. In 136 2/3 innings, Perkins has given up 160 hits, 20 home runs, and 62 earned runs (for a 4.08 ERA) while striking out 64 and walking 34. The walk rate is fine and above average, but a strikeout rate of 4.31/9 is terrible and a 1.39 WHIP is bad as well.
Fans should note that Perkins' xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) is 4.94, well above his current ERA, which that Perkins has certainly be lucky and regression towards the mean should not be surprising. In fact, if there is one young pitcher he seems bound to disappoint fans, at least somewhat, its Perkins, because he has the worst peripherals of anyone in the rotation and stats like xFIP suggest that fans should lower their expectations. Unfortunately, it comes at a bad time, as the Twins have often been in close games like yesterday's lately that they have lost.
Of course, I cannot put the blame purely on Perkins' woeful starting pitching. Boof Bonser also gave up a two-run home run in relief and Matt Guerrier continued to get beaten around, giving up three hits and a run in just 2/3 innings. (In fairness, he had 5 1/3 scoreless innings before last night, so he hasn't been utterly hittable of late, but his second half regression is hardly a secret) But the remedies to continue winning are simple and hard at the same time: the Twins need more consistent punch and the offense isn't going to win many games without hitting extra-base hits, but the pitching staff also needs to do its job more consistently. Its too bad, then, that it still appears that in some instances, fans may need to lower expectations and face some stubborn realities.
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