To Trade or Not to Trade?

In November of 2009, Bill Smith set the tone for an extremely active offseason when he traded Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. It was a relatively major deal, and one that turned out well for the Twins, who got a quality -- though injury-shortened -- season from Hardy at shortstop while Denard Span took over in center field.

Of course, Smith's trades haven't always gone so smoothly. With his pattern of buying high and selling low, I can only hope he doesn't invest much money in the stock market. He's dealt away players like Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, Wilson Ramos and Hardy only to watch them thrive elsewhere; meanwhile, acquisitions such as Delmon Young, Matt Capps, Jim Hoey and the entire Johan Santana package have largely fizzled in Minnesota.

But it's not just Smith's history of getting fleeced that has me believing the Twins would be wise to stay away from the trade market this offseason. Based on the current roster composition and state of the franchise, I don't see any players that the team both can and should be dealing away.

Among those with movable contracts, there are few on the major-league roster with meaningful trade value. It's not hard to see the Twins shopping Francisco Liriano this offseason, but they'd be getting rid of him with his value at a low point; as mentioned earlier, this is a habit Smith must get away from. The same goes for potential trade candidates like Kevin Slowey (who's probably as likely to get non-tendered as traded), Danny Valencia and Denard Span.

One could point to Carl Pavano and his $8 million salary as an expendable asset, but the veteran righty led the team in innings pitched by 60 frames this year. With so much ongoing health uncertainty in the rotation, it's tough to argue that Pavano is dispensable unless the return is very appealing.

Of course, the Twins could look to the minors for prospects to package in a trade, but should they really be doing that? While it's not unthinkable that the team could return to contention next year with a lot of good breaks, the front office should really be building with an eye toward 2013 and 2014, when their next wave of organizational talent will be nearing the majors. Trading away from that group for more immediate help simply wouldn't fit with the direction this organization should be going.

The Twins have a lot of needs to fill, but they lack areas of strength from which it would be prudent to trade. Unless Smith can get uncharacteristically creative and pull a rabbit from a hat, I'd prefer to see the club upgrade its roster almost exclusively through free agency.

That can prove a challenging and expensive proposition, but fortunately they'll have some funds to work with this winter.

Twins Trade Gomez for Hardy

Bill Smith made his first big offseason splash today, sending Carlos Gomez to the Brewers in return for shortstop J.J. Hardy, who was a suggested trade acquisition in my offseason blueprint. The deal swaps two players who both saw their value drop with rough seasons in 2009, though surely Hardy has proven more at the major-league level.

My initial reaction is that I'm very sorry to see Gomez go, as he was a personal favorite, and I'm very concerned about the team's outfield defense over the next few seasons. But perhaps the writing was on the wall during a month of September in which the Twins were making a fierce charge and Gomez was seeing virtually no playing time.

I'll have plenty more analysis of the move, and a more thorough breakdown of Hardy, on Monday.

Pavano

If there's one thing capable of prompting a Saturday post on this blog, it's a post-deadline waiver trade for a mediocre veteran starting pitcher. So let's get to it.

The Twins acquired Carl Pavano from the Indians yesterday in return for a player to be named later. The 33-year-old right-hander will add that ever-valuable veteran presence while jumping into the rotation and creating additional depth in what has become a paper-thin starting pitching corps. R.A. Dickey gets a one-way ticket to Rochester to create room on the 25-man roster.

First, I'll say that I actually don't mind Pavano. When the Indians signed him this offseason for $1.5 million plus incentives, I spoke rather glowingly of the move, giving the following brief analysis:

I’m not a big fan of Pavano, but he’s 33 years old and has a history of pitching well. If he stays healthy, he can probably [be] counted on for close to league average production; if he doesn’t stay healthy, the Indians aren’t on the hook for much money at all. This is what a low-risk veteran signing should look like. When you hear complaints about the Twins handing $5 million to Livan Hernandez and $3 million to Ramon Ortiz, this is why.

Pavano has indeed stayed relatively healthy, and while his production up to this point doesn't look all that good at a glance (9-8 record, 5.37 ERA), it's worth noting that he has performed better than his results would indicate. The mention of Hernandez in the above quote seems apt, since I would basically describe this year's version of Pavano as a rich man's Livan. He has given up a lot of hits and home runs (.299 BAA with 19 HR allowed in 125 2/3 innings) but he actually hurls a respectable fastball which averages over 90 mph, and he has posted a solid 88-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio while limiting baserunners to a large degree thanks to his quality control. His 4.15 xFIP suggests that if he keeps pitching the way he has up to this point, he'll probably be good for an ERA lower than 5.37 from here on out.

The relatively impressive peripherals don't change the fact that Pavano has been fairly hittable this year, and given the fact that he's 33 and has never been much better than average in his career (with the exception of a season or two), it's not likely that he'll step in and change the fortunes of the Twins rotation. What he does do is add much-needed depth to a pitching staff that was one more Glen Perkins shoulder flare-up or Francisco Liriano control meltdown away from turning to Kevin Mulvey as a starter. That in and of itself makes this a pretty good move, particularly when you consider that the Twins aren't likely to end up losing anything of much value in the deal. The PTBNL is probably conditional based on Pavano's performance, but will likely end up being an older farmhand whose chances of making a serious impact at the major-league level are minimal.

Now we turn to the predominant question at hand: who will Pavano replace in the rotation? It's almost certainly going to be one of the Twins' struggling lefty starters; Pavano will start tonight in place of Perkins, but Ron Gardenhire has stated that the team has yet to make a decision whether Liriano or Perkins will be the odd man out in the long run. Twins Geek seems to think Pavano replacing Liriano is a foregone conclusion, and Howard Sinker was strongly advocating for Liriano's dismissal from the rotation on his blog just the other day. I disagree with both of them. But that's a matter that I'll tackle another day -- probably Monday.

The Blame Game

Having passed his physical and reached agreement on a contract that will make him the richest pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana is now officially a member of the New York Mets. In return, the Twins have received a package of prospects that is almost unanimously being labeled as underwhelming. This development has Twins fans desperately seeking a deserving party upon which to pin blame in a situation that seemingly has not been handled very well. I've seen numerous articles leveling scathing criticism against everyone from Carl Pohlad to Bill Smith to Santana himself. My thinking on the subject is that while several people probably could have acted in a way that would have led to better results, no one was completely out of line here. The Twins were put in an unfortunate situation and the result is that they've lost their franchise player for a relative pittance. It's a shame, but I don't think anyone is specifically at fault.

First, let's talk about Santana. Fans seemed to have turned on him for the way he acted during this debacle, claiming that he abused his leverage and backed the Twins into a corner with his self-imposed deadline. We may never know how Santana truly felt or what he actually said behind closed doors, but reading between the lines I think it's fair to say that he didn't particularly want to pitch in Minnesota. It seems clear that Santana's preference was to move into a larger market to showcase himself, and ideally I think he wanted to move to the National League where the lineups are weaker and where he'll be able to bat. This made the Mets a natural fit.

As a fan of the Twins and a proud resident of Minnesota, the thought that Santana was anxious to move elsewhere is somewhat hurtful. But is it really a reason to hold resentment against him? If his preference is to pitch in New York, then he's well within his rights to try and arrange it. Some have accused him of being disloyal for trying to force his way out from a team that helped him become the pitcher he is today, but he did provide the Twins with five years of phenomenal performance, and he was never an open distraction in the clubhouse or unfriendly toward fans. If he wanted to move on, I think we owe it to him to respect his wishes. He was patient throughout the entire offseason, and I don't really see how he is out of line for wanting a resolution now that we're weeks away from Spring Training.

Now, on to Pohlad. In the wake of this trade, the wealthy Twins owner has been painted by numerous scribes as a greedy monster who coaxed a stadium out of the fans only to pocket his earnings and let the team's stars walk when they become expensive. I am far from a Pohlad defender, but I find this criticism to be unfair, at least when applied to the Santana situation.

For the reasons I mentioned above, I'm skeptical that Santana would have signed an extension with the Twins even if they had made an offer that rivaled the contract the Mets gave him. But even if he would have, would it really have been wise for the Twins to hand him such a contract? Signing pitchers to long-term deals is always a risky venture, and committing over $130 million to a guy who will soon enter his 30s could be suicide for a middle-market team like the Twins. Perhaps Santana is worth $25 million as long as he is the best pitcher in baseball, but will he remain the best pitcher in baseball as he ages into his mid-30s? Maybe, but that is far from guaranteed. I think that the Twins' decision not to extend Santana has less to do with a lack of financial resources and more to do with intelligent baseball management. And, in fairness, the team did just sign Justin Morneau to a six-year mega-deal, so it's not as if Pohlad has slammed the wallet shut.

Finally, many have focused their criticism on the general manager Smith for failing to get a package that includes even one true top prospect for Santana. I've frequently seen it written that Smith "overplayed his hand," when negotiating with the Yankees and Red Sox, only to eventually have them pull their offers. Yet, I can nearly guarantee that had Smith accepted one of those team's offers back in December (assuming the reported offers were legitimately on the table), there would be droves of fans and analysts criticizing Smith for acting too quickly and lacking the patience to create a bidding war which could force a better package out of one of the teams. Smith took a risk by playing the waiting game, and in the end it didn't pay off, but I hardly think one can hold it against him.

I'm more than a little disappointed by the package received for Santana, but I can't say I'm angry at any particular person about it. There's just nowhere to justifiably point a finger. The Twins made a competitive offer, Santana wanted to move on, and so Smith made the best deal he could. As I said when analyzing the trade last Wednesday, I'm not entirely sure that trading Santana for this package will ultimately be more beneficial to the team than keeping him for another year and collecting draft picks as free agent compensation, but I have to trust that the Twins see something in these Mets prospects.

A Cold Day in Minnesota

The Twins have been known to surprise us before. Who would have thought that the prospects received back in the Frank Viola trade would help push them to a World Series championship just two years later? Who could have known that the prospects brought over in the Chuck Knoblauch deal would help form the foundation for putting them back into contention after a horrible dry spell in the late '90s? How could anyone have predicted that two of the relatively unknown pitchers received back in the A.J. Pierzynski trade would transform into elite All-Stars, while the third became an important member of the rotation?

Let's face it, the Twins have a track record of success when trading away star players amidst their primes, even if the results initially seem heavily skewed in favor of the other team. Maybe that will be the case with yesterday's deal that likely sends Johan Santana to the Mets in return for four unspectacular prospects. Unfortunately, that seems rather unlikely.

According to reports, the Twins made a final offer to Santana for five years and $100 million. Santana turned the offer down, and he and his agent pressured the Twins to make a decision as soon as possible. With the Red Sox and Yankees both reportedly having backed off with their offers, Bill Smith was forced to take what he could get from the Mets. It ended up being a package that includes center fielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber.

All that's left is for Santana to pass a physical and for the Mets to reach an agreement with the left-hander on a contract extension for the deal to become official. Since Santana is in tip-top shape and the Mets have the fiscal resources to give him the kind of money he's seeking, it seems very likely that this deal is as good as done.

There was really no way the Twins were going to get equal value for the best pitcher in baseball, and each of the rumored offers from the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets was underwhelming in its own way. Yet, almost each of those deals included at least one player who could be considered a relatively sure bet to produce at the major-league level, a quality which this Mets package lacks. Perhaps it is unfair to compare this package to the rumored superior deals from the Red Sox and Yankees (or even the rumored superior deals from the Mets that included Fernando Martinez and/or Mike Pelfrey) and to accuse Smith of overplaying his hand. After all, there were continual rumblings that Yankees' GM Brian Cashman was unwilling to part with Phil Hughes, and many believed that Boston's only real interest in this sweepstakes was keeping Santana out of the Bronx. Additionally, it is entirely possible that the Mets were never truly considering parting ways with Martinez or Pelfrey. Still, it seems awfully hard to believe that this is the best offer the Twins officially received for Santana, and it's not clear to me that this course of action will be more beneficial to the team than simply hanging onto Santana for another year and taking the draft picks when he departs for free agency following the 2008 season.

In fairness, the players received from the Mets in this deal aren't bad. There's just a lot of questions surrounding them. I first discussed the players involved in the deal a couple weeks ago, when Joe Christensen first reported that the Mets had made the offer. When breaking down the players, I noted that I'm higher on Gomez than most, but that he will need to overcome his alarming plate discipline issues and gain some power to develop into a solid major-league starter. Gomez is a superb athlete with the ability to steal 60+ stolen bases and he has the tools to become an excellent defender in center field with more experience. He could be a star, but he has a long way to go. He was overwhelmed in the majors last year and would likely start this season in Rochester.

I imagine that the Twins view Guerra as the type of pitcher who could eventually transform into a Santana-type talent. At age 18, he has already developed a plus change-up, which will likely become more effective as he adds velocity to his fastball. But there are major concerns. His breaking pitches aren't strong, he's already experienced some shoulder issues, and he still doesn't turn 19 until April, which makes him fairly difficult project. Scouts view Guerra as the type of pitcher who could develop into a star in the major leagues, but he has so many hurdles yet to overcome before that point that it's very difficult to factor him into the Twins' plans, short-term or long-term.

The other two pitchers in the deal, Mulvey and Humber, don't project as anything more than middle-of-the-rotation starters, but then again they also seem like the types of players that could end up surprising us, given the Twins' history. Mulvey is probably being underrated by some -- he has had success at each stop in the minors and reached Triple-A last year in just his first professional season. Unfortunately, it's difficult to get excited about him because he lacks a dominating arsenal. Humber was a terrific pitcher in college and a first-round draft pick, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2005 and has been unspectacular since then. Humber does know how to pitch, however, and he's a guy I could see making a name for himself in the Twins' bullpen.

In order for this deal to really work out for the Twins, Gomez and Guerra need to take some significant strides and make good on their considerable potential. Mulvey and Humber aren't likely to separate themselves from the numerous solid pitching prospects already littering the Twins' system, but if they can, it would certainly be an added bonus and would take the heat off of Smith in what appears to be a situation that could have been handled a lot better. The odds aren't necessarily stacked against these four players becoming productive contributors to the Twins, but the fact that the package lacks a relative sure bet like Hughes or Ellsbury, or even Martinez or Jon Lester, makes the swap a rather disappointing one from the Twins' standpoint. Smith has traded an exclamation point for several question marks, and in dealing Santana he has also likely mortgaged the Twins' chances of competing in 2008 with an eye toward the future. Time will tell whether the gamble pays off, but I'm not overly optimistic.

Update: Santana to the Mets

Sorry to be a little late on posting this. Many sources are reporting that the Twins and Mets have agreed to a trade that will send two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana to the Mets in return for a package of four prospects. That package includes outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. The deal is reportedly dependent on the Mets negotiating a contract extension with Santana.

It's awfully tough to feel remotely positive about this trade as a Twins fan. Full analysis tomorrow.

The Departed

The title of this post is more than just a reference to one of my (and Mosvick's) favorite movies of all time. It's a reference to the three players the Twins lost in Wednesdays blockbuster swap with the Tampa Bay Rays.

There will undoubtedly be much analysis over the next weeks and months of the players the Twins received in this trade: Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. There will be plenty of that here, too, but for today I think it's important to take a look at the players who have exited the Twins' organization. Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan were Twins property on Tuesday, and now they aren't. What are the possible repercussions of losing these players? How will the team absorb the losses? What is the overarching effect?

Make no mistake, this is not a Terry Ryan type trade. Ryan traded A.J. Pierzynski when he had Joe Mauer waiting in the wings. He traded Bobby Kielty when he had a surplus of outfielders. There are a lot of adjectives that could be attached to Ryan's general style when it came to player transactions, but "risky" would certainly not be one of them.

The rookie GM Bill Smith hasn't been on the job for two full months yet, and already he's stepped out and made a move that is riskier than any Ryan made during his lengthy tenure. Smith was dealing from a surplus by trading a pair of pitching prospects, to be sure, but Garza was the only young pitcher in this organization with ace potential written all over him (aside from Francisco Liriano, who is of course a huge question at this time). Meanwhile, Morlan was the only player in the Twins' minor-league system that seemed to be a legitimate candidate to take over the closer role upon Joe Nathan's likely departure following the 2008 season (that is, if he isn't traded this winter). Bartlett was a good defensive shortstop with speed and a solid approach at the plate -- that's a valuable thing to have in this league.

What is it that compelled the Twins to trade these players? Surely the fact that the Rays wanted them had a lot to do with it, but I think the reasoning goes deeper. For whatever reason, Garza and Bartlett never seemed to be held in particularly high esteem by this organization. Both were held back in the minors by inferior veterans at one time or another. Twins coaches were frequently quoted in the papers with criticisms of the attitudes of both players. Bartlett lacked "leadership," and Garza was not "mature" enough to pitch at the big-league level. Indeed, both players have posted major-league numbers that can be viewed as disappointing in relation to what they did in the minors.

Garza has a great chance of becoming an outstanding major-league starter. He throws hard and possesses good secondary pitches. Yet, he always seemed tentative about throwing anything other than his fastball, and in 2007 his control -- which was stellar in his breakout 2006 campaign -- took a turn for the worse. If Garza becomes more comfortable with his breaking pitches and his changeup, he could team up with Scott Kazmir to give the Rays a formidable top of the rotation. If he doesn't, this will look like a good trade from the Twins' perspective.

I don't buy into the organization's criticisms of Bartlett and I think he'll end up being a pretty good player in Tampa Bay. He was a great hitter for three seasons in Triple-A, and he showed what he was capable of in the big leagues in 2006, when he hit .309/.367/.393. With that being said, I don't think Bartlett will be much more than an adequate hitter with a good glove and the ability to swipe a base. Of course, that could be much more than the Twins are able to field at shortstop next season.

As I stated in yesterday's post, Morlan is where I start to go sour on this deal. Selected in the third round of the 2004 draft, Morlan cruised his way through the lower levels of the Twins' minor league system while usually posting an exceptional ERA and always striking out more than a batter per inning. Morlan has the ability to hit triple-digits on the radar gun, and his stuff is electric. He finished last season with a short stint in Class-AA New Britain, where he would have started the 2008 season. Ideally, Morlan could have been pitching out of the Twins' bullpen by the end of next season; unfortunately, he's now Tampa Bay's property.

Losing a few of these players could come back to haunt the Twins. That's something that never happened to Ryan, which is the nature of a low-risk operation. Then again, who knows... perhaps Garza will flop in Tampa and Morlan will fizzle out in the high minor leagues. For whatever reason, the Twins seem to have a sense of things like this when trading their own players. Pierzynski had a major drop-off in his one season with the Giants, seeing his OPS drop by over 100 points from his last season with the Twins. Travis Bowyer, whom Ryan traded to the Marlins two years ago in exchange for Luis Castillo, experienced immediate shoulder problems and hasn't pitched an inning of professional baseball since he left the Twins.

Twins fans might be frustrated if they see Garza leading the Rays rotation with Morlan closing games for them in a few years. But one thing that we never really learned with Ryan around is that you have to give up talent if you want to give it back. Smith wanted Delmon Young, and he was going to do what it took to make him a Twin.

As Frank Costello said: "No one gives it to you. You have to take it."

Sorting Through the Rays Trade

As you are no doubt aware by now, Bill Smith made his first big move as Twins general manager yesterday, agreeing to a deal with the Rays that sends Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan to Tampa Bay in return for outfielders Delmon Young and Jason Pridie and infielder Brendan Harris.

This is a blockbuster trade, and likely a prelude of things to come. Losing Garza hurts, but the Twins remain likely to bring back a prized pitching prospect in the seemingly inevitable Johan Santana trade.

Meanwhile, the Twins bring in Delmon Young, who turned 22 in September and was viewed for a couple years as the best prospect in all of baseball. Young likely will take over in left field, with Jason Kubel sliding to designated hitter. Tampa Bay took Young, the younger brother of veteran Dmitri Young, with the first overall pick in the 2003 draft, and he subsequently cruised through the minor leagues to make his major-league debut at the age of 20. Debuting with the Rays in the final month of the 2006 season, Young hit .317/.336/.476 over 126 at-bats. In 2007, as a 21-year-old, Young hit .288/.316/.408 with 13 home runs and 93 RBI while playing in all 162 of Tampa Bay's games. That line might not seem very impressive, but for a 21-year-old with only three years of pro experience, it's extremely encouraging. Young hit 20+ home runs in both of his first two seasons in the minors and projects as a solid power hitter with very good speed -- he has the makings of a 30 HR/30 SB type player. He is also an excellent defensive corner outfielder with one of the best throwing arms in the game.

The one downside to Young's game is that he has almost no plate discipline. He has posted a sub par .319 on-base percentage over 192 major-league games, despite a very good .293 batting average. In his 2006 big-league debut, Young drew only one walk in 131 plate appearances, which is mind-boggling. Last year, he drew only 26 walks in 681 plate appearances, registering a .316 on-base percentage despite his solid .288 average. Of course, as long as Young can hit for good average and power, his lack of patience at the plate will not be a debilitating weakness.

It is somewhat surprising to see the Twins go for a player like Young, who has a documented history of losing his temper. In 2006, he was famously suspended for 50 games after throwing a bat at an umpire, and he was also suspended in 2005 after bumping an umpire during an altercation during a Double-A game. Obviously, that kind of thing won't be acceptable, but there's little doubt that Young brings a fiery and competitive attitude which, one could argue, might be a good thing for this laid-back, happy-go-lucky group of Twins players.

Garza-for-Young is clearly the meat of this deal, and I like that part, but there were a lot of other players moved in this swap as well, which is where things start to get a little less rosy. It's a bit surprising to see the Twins part with Bartlett, who was a solid shortstop both offensively and defensively with good speed. Then again, it seems like the organization never viewed Bartlett that highly, and Ron Gardenhire frequently seemed to take issue with the shortstop's attitude. From that standpoint, I suppose it's not overly shocking to see him go. The Rays' desire for Bartlett is puzzling, since their system contains one of the game's top shortstop prospects in Reid Brignac, but perhaps a position change is planned for him.

The Morlan part is where I start to dislike this trade. The original deal would have sent Juan Rincon to the Rays along with Garza and Bartlett, which would've been just fine. Some believed that trading the former dominant setup man right now would have been selling low, but I'm convinced that Rincon is a shell of his former self. He's also due a couple million bucks through arbitration next year, which he won't deserve. Unfortunately, the original deal hit a snag when the Rays had concerns over the medical reports on Rincon's elbow, and Smith ended up subbing in Morlan, who is by far the best relief prospect in the Twins system. Many had Morlan pegged to replace Joe Nathan as closer in 2009. Losing him is a huge hit, and with him in the deal, I feel like the Twins gave up way too much value in this trade.

The infielder that comes back to the Twins is Harris, who is coming off a career year in 2007 in which he hit .286/.343/.434 while playing primarily shortstop for the Rays. Prior to '07, he hadn't been much of a hitter in the major leagues, but at 27 he's still relatively young and considering his good minor league numbers, there's plenty of reason to think he can continue to be at least an average hitter. Whether he'll be doing that at shortstop remains to be seen, but I'll get to that a little bit later.

The final player involved in the deal is Pridie, a center fielder. Many will recognize the name because he was with the Twins in spring training as a Rule V pick in 2006, although he ended up being sent back to the Rays. The fact that the Twins gambled on him in the Rule V, however, tells us that he's a player they've had their eyes on for some time. In Triple-A this year, Pridie hit .318/.375/.539 with 10 home runs in 245 at-bats, which makes him look like an MLB-ready prospect. However, those numbers are a far cry from his career minor-league line of .272/.327/.432, so it's entirely possible that those outstanding stats were something of a fluke. Regardless, they're pretty good for a 23-year-old in the highest level of the minors, and there's little question that Pridie at least has the potential to develop into a major-league regular.

I said at the top of this post that yesterday's trade was a prelude of things to come, because it seems to be laying the groundwork for future moves. Because of that fact, we can't fully evaluate the trade at this point. At first glance, it would seem that Harris was brought in to replace Bartlett at shortstop, while Pridie could fill the vacated center field spot. However, Harris is a poor defensive shortstop and it's probably a stretch to think Pridie will be ready to take over a regular gig in the majors at the start of next season. It now seems clear that if the Twins trade Santana, they'll be looking to bring back a premier young starter to replace Garza, and a very good infielder. Could a Jose Reyes deal be in the works with the Mets? Can Smith pry Robinson Cano from the Yankees? We shall see what else is in store.

Upon the initial word of this trade, I was happy and I felt like the new GM was off to a great start. The fact that he had to throw in Morlan to get the deal done makes it much less impressive. The Twins needed hitting, and to his credit, Smith went out and got one of the most highly regarded young hitters in the game. That's good. The Garza-for-Young swap is a good one for both sides.

The rest of this deal doesn't look nearly as good and could turn out to be a large mistake. Unless Morlan breaks down, Pridie is going to have to turn out to be a pretty special player for Smith to be vindicated on this move.

Update: Twins/Rays Close To Deal

It appears that yesterday's reports of a deal being imminent between Twins and Rays were correct, although not the part about Boof Bonser being involved. A deal is reportedly in place that will send Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon to the Rays in return for outfielder Delmon Young, shortstop Brendan Harris and outfielder Jason Pridie. This is a blockbuster, folks. Much more analysis tomorrow.

Twins Killer Becomes a Twin

The Twins made their first offseason addition yesterday, acquiring outfielder Craig Monroe from the Cubs for a player to be named later. Monroe is a notorious Twins killer, having posted a career line of .322/.356/.544 against Minnesota during his years with Detroit which dwarfs his overall line of .256/.303/.446.

While it's not known yet what the Twins will give up for Monroe, it seems clear that it won't be much of anything. The Cubs were almost certain to non-tender the arbitration-eligible Monroe, so they had no leverage to command anything in a trade.

In that respect, this is a low-risk deal. The big problem here is money. Monroe had a brutally bad 2007 campaign, hitting .219/.268/.370 while making $4.8 million. Entering his final year of arbitration, Monroe would likely make a similar amount next season. Speculation is that the Twins will either try to negotiate a deal that pays him less, or they will non-tender him. This much is certain: despite the fact that they will likely have some money to burn this offseason, the Twins can't afford to pay a fourth outfielder $5 million, nor can they afford to depend on Monroe in any sort of significant capacity if they are serious about fielding a more competitive team in 2008.

The acquisition of Monroe has garnered some Tony Batista comparisons, which is frightening yet understandable:

Craig Monroe (career): .256/.303/.446

Tony Batista (career): .251/.293/.453

There are, however, a number of disinct differences between the two situations. When the Twins signed Batista in December 2005, he was a 32-year-old who was three years removed from any type of real productivity in the major leagues (in fact, he had spent the past season playing in Japan, and not particularly well). Monroe is 30, and while his 2007 campaign was abominable, he had been a steadily solid player for the four seasons prior. Between 2003 and 2006, Monroe's home run totals were 23, 18, 20 and 28. His slugging percentages were .449, .488, .446 and .482.

Monroe does not generally hit for a good average and his on-base skills are obviously lacking, but his power is enticing. His .446 career slugging percentage is no great shakes, but had he posted it for the Twins last year he would have ranked fourth on the team in that category. (Of course, one of those who'd have been above him, Torii Hunter, is on his way out the door.) Monroe has hit 20 or more home runs three times in his five-year career; with Hunter and Rondell White gone the Twins have a total of four 20+ homer seasons among players on their rosters (three of which belong to Justin Morneau).

When Bill Smith made his first move as a general manager by dropping a few lesser players on the team's roster, including Lew Ford, I said that the key would be finding superior players to replace the ones that were dropped. Monroe qualifies as a significant offensive upgrade over the departed Ford as a fourth outfielder. This acquisition could be a good one, but it depends on several conditions. If the Twins plan to pay Monroe anywhere close to $5 million or plan on making him a regular player at any position, then this deal could be a disaster of Batista-esque proportions. If they can get his price down to a couple million bucks while using him as a backup and perhaps a platoon-type at DH or left field, he could be a useful player and a much-needed power threat off the bench.

Off With a Bang

Over the past couple weeks, there have been few headlines relating to the Twins. Those that have revolved around our hometown team have been incredibly dull: Twins activate Joe Nathan's option, Carlos Silva and Torii Hunter file for free agency, etc. Of course, I can't really complain about the lack of compelling activity; we are just two days removed from the end of the World Series and there are several long months ahead for necessary moves to be made.

That didn't stop the division rival Tigers from getting their offseason started in a hurry though. They pulled the trigger on a trade with the Braves yesterday, sending prospects Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez to the Braves in exchange for shortstop Edgar Renteria. The Tigers wasted no time in filling their new hole at shortstop, which was created when the decision was made to move the hobbled Carlos Guillen to first base.

Renteria, 32, is a five-time All-Star who hit .332/.390/.470 with 12 homers and 57 RBI over 124 games in Atlanta last year. He has never hit for a ton of power, but he's still got some speed and is a very solid defensive player. He should prove a nice fit in the Tigers' veteran lineup. In order to get Renteria, the Tigers had to give up a very nice pitching prospect in Jurrjens, who made his major-league debut as a 21-year-old this year after posting a 3.21 ERA over five minor-league seasons. The second prospect included in the deal, Hernandez, is a 20-year-old who spent the entire 2007 season in Single-A. He's far from an established prospect, but he has great speed (74 SB in174 professional games) and could end up being a solid player down the line.

Like with the Gary Sheffield trade last year, Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski has shown that he has no problem letting go of some promising young players with bright futures in order to help the team in the present. This deal might not ultimately end up being a great one for Detroit, but there is little question that it will make them a better team in 2008, which is bad news for the Twins. I very much doubt this is the last we'll hear from Dombrowski; likewise, I suspect that Kenny Williams will be active this winter as he looks to turn the White Sox back into a competitor. The Indians don't need to do a whole lot of tinkering, but I don't expect Mark Shapiro to sit on his hands.

It's going to be a busy offseason in the AL Central. Let's just hope that Bill Smith and the Twins get in on the action so they don't end up left in the dust next year.

Rejoice!

There haven't been many positive things to write about the Twins lately. And frankly, it gets a little dreary writing about slumps and losing streaks and ineptitude day in and day out. So I'm very happy to report that the Twins have won a series for the first time this month, taking back-to-back games from the Mariners after losing the series opener in a heart-breaker. In the last two games of the series, the Twins scored a total of 17 runs, which matched their total from the previous week. Scott Baker delivered yet another excellent performance, but since the Twins' scoring came late in the game, it was Pat Neshek who was credited with the win.

Rondell White hit his first homer of the year. Torii Hunter gave the Twins a lead with an RBI single in the eighth, and then he added some insurance in the ninth with a grand slam. It's definitely pleasant to see Hunter stepping up with some run production in that cleanup spot. Meanwhile, Tommy Watkins got his first major-league hit (he had two hits, in fact), Nick Punto actually managed to execute a sacrifice bunt, and Jason Bartlett went 2-for-3 with a double (he's now hitting .314 with a .510 SLG for the month of August). On top of all that, the Twins managed to trade Ramon Ortiz for a prospect that might actually fill a need in the organization.

Of course, to concentrate on all of these niceties would be to overlook the facts that the Twins went just 2-for-14 in scoring opportunities yesterday, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer combined to strand nine runners while going 2-for-9 with five strikeouts, and the red-hot Bartlett is likely headed to the disabled list with a strained hamstring. Whatever. For today, I'm just going to ignore the negatives and focus on the positives. The Twins have won a couple games in a row, and now they're headed back home to take on a soft Texas team with a weak pitching staff. Hopefully we have some watchable baseball ahead of us this weekend.

By the way, if you're heading out the Metrodome for any of the games this weekend, do me a favor and pick up a copy of GameDay Magazine. I will be contributing to the fine publication for a second time this year, writing up the "Dugout Splinters" insert on the Twins.

Update: Cirillo To Arizona

According to La Velle, the Twins have traded Jeff Cirillo to the Diamondbacks for a minor-leaguer, whose identity is unknown at this time. (Update: La Velle is now reporting that the D-Backs actually claimed Cirillo off waivers, meaning that the Twins will get nothing in return.)

Why? Beats me. They needed to clear a spot on the roster for Michael Cuddyer's return from the DL, but Cirillo is certainly more valuable than, say, Luis Rodriguez.

Update: Castillo To Mets

FoxSports.com and Joe Christensen are reporting that the Twins are nearing a deal that will send Luis Castillo to the Mets. In return, the Twins get two of the things they need least in the world: a struggling catching prospect and a light-hitting minor-league outfielder. The catcher is 23-year-old Drew Butera, who had been playing with Class-AA Binghamton, where he had posted a miserable .439 OPS over 117 at-bats. The outfielder is Dustin Martin, also 23, who was hitting .287/.358/.421 in Advanced Single-A.

Neither of these players look remotely impressive, but I guess that's the going price for two months worth of service from a mediocre veteran second baseman. If any of the details change or any other deals go down, we'll let you know as soon as we do.