* If it seems like Joe Mauer's been hitting the ball into the ground a lot this season, it's because he has. According to FanGraphs, a whopping 80 percent of the catcher's balls in play thus far have been grounders.
It comes as no surprise, then, that his double off the right field wall in the eighth inning Sunday was Mauer's first extra-base hit of the season. Not an encouraging start for a guy who saw his home run total drop from 28 to nine last year.
As Jon Krawczynski notes, the Twins' backstop is trying to work through some early kinks in his swing.
* The Orioles placed J.J. Hardy on the disabled list over the weekend with a strained oblique, just after I posted an article on Friday ridiculing the "injury-prone" label that has been (in my opinion) unjustly attached to him and so many other players.
Naturally, this led to many emails, tweets and comments poking fun at me. There's nothing wrong with that; I can certainly admit that the timing is pretty humorous.
But I think these people are missing the point. I never suggested that Hardy would not get hurt this year -- only that anyone can get hurt. Yes, he's been placed on the disabled list. So has Nick Punto. So has Tsuyoshi Nishioka. So will many other players over the course of the season.
In major-league baseball, injuries are frequent, and that's why it's important to have strong depth.
Hardy is no iron man, that's for sure. But if you're going to try and convince me that he was somehow more predisposed than the average player to suffer a strained oblique -- an ailment that he's never dealt with before -- just because he's experienced a variety of unrelated injuries over the past two seasons, you're not very likely to succeed.
* Trevor Plouffe opened his season at Triple-A by earning International League Batter of the Week honors. The shortstop went 8-for-18 (.444) in Rochester's first four games, hitting three homers and two doubles over the weekend.
If Plouffe keeps up his hot start, he'll increasingly be mentioned as a potential replacement for Alexi Casilla, who's looked dreadful in early action for the Twins. I'd note that while Plouffe's power is intriguing -- especially for a middle infielder -- his on-base skills and defensive aptitude are questionable. Much like with Luke Hughes, we shouldn't allow a brief power-hitting streak to skew our perceptions of him as a ballplayer.
When given his chance to make an impression on the big-league coaching staff this spring, Plouffe hardly took advantage, hitting just .206 while committing a team-high five errors in Grapefruit League play.
Showing posts with label hardy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hardy. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Monday, December 13, 2010
Three-Bagger: Greinke, Hardy & Speed
"Three-Bagger" is a new feature I'll be running here from time to time. It refers to posts, like the one below, where I briefly cover three different topics rather than dedicating an entire lengthy entry to one subject.
* Joel Sherman of the New York Post and Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com both suggested today that the Yankees aren't interested in trading for Zack Greinke because they don't believe he'd deal well with the pressure of pitching in New York. That's amusing because so many Twins fans have been clamoring for the team to pursue Greinke, reasoning that he'd be the true bulldog "ace" that Liriano isn't. Incidentally, the Yankees have apparently inquired about the availability of Liriano.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'd take Liriano over Greinke as my No. 1 starter on a contending team. That's not to say I wouldn't love to add Greinke to the Twins' rotation, but people who think he'd automatically solve the supposed "ace" dilemma aren't seeing things very clearly.
* Today's bitter J.J. Hardy fact: His .714 OPS last year ranks as the highest for a Minnesota shortstop who played 100-plus games since Cristian Guzman in 2001. For being such a replaceable commodity in the eyes of many, Hardy's production was awfully rare around these parts.
* The Twins supposedly are focused on increasing team speed this offseason. They claim that it's the main reason they've elected to part with both of their starting middle infielders from 2010. Yet, both Hardy and Orlando Hudson rated extremely well defensively, helping contribute to the Twins' No. 6 ranking among MLB teams in UZR. Among those clubs that finished among the top 10 in UZR, five made the playoffs. The Giants, who ranked second, won the World Series. Meanwhile, only one team ranking in the bottom 10 reached the postseason -- the Braves, who were ousted in the first round with ease.
On the flip side, three of the five lowest-ranked teams in stolen bases made the playoffs last year. That includes the Giants, who ranked dead last. Only one playoff team -- the Rays -- ranked among the top five in stolen bases.
If you believe their claims, the Twins' front office seems to think they can improve their 94-win team by subtracting defensive proficiency and adding foot speed. That's a shaky proposition based on the way things played out last year. Whether or not you put much stock into UZR as a statistic, it was clearly more closely correlated with success this past year than stolen bases.
Of course, I don't really buy the rhetoric from the front office, and believe (and hope) their decisions this offseason have been guided almost entirely by a desire to cut costs.
* Joel Sherman of the New York Post and Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com both suggested today that the Yankees aren't interested in trading for Zack Greinke because they don't believe he'd deal well with the pressure of pitching in New York. That's amusing because so many Twins fans have been clamoring for the team to pursue Greinke, reasoning that he'd be the true bulldog "ace" that Liriano isn't. Incidentally, the Yankees have apparently inquired about the availability of Liriano.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'd take Liriano over Greinke as my No. 1 starter on a contending team. That's not to say I wouldn't love to add Greinke to the Twins' rotation, but people who think he'd automatically solve the supposed "ace" dilemma aren't seeing things very clearly.
* Today's bitter J.J. Hardy fact: His .714 OPS last year ranks as the highest for a Minnesota shortstop who played 100-plus games since Cristian Guzman in 2001. For being such a replaceable commodity in the eyes of many, Hardy's production was awfully rare around these parts.
* The Twins supposedly are focused on increasing team speed this offseason. They claim that it's the main reason they've elected to part with both of their starting middle infielders from 2010. Yet, both Hardy and Orlando Hudson rated extremely well defensively, helping contribute to the Twins' No. 6 ranking among MLB teams in UZR. Among those clubs that finished among the top 10 in UZR, five made the playoffs. The Giants, who ranked second, won the World Series. Meanwhile, only one team ranking in the bottom 10 reached the postseason -- the Braves, who were ousted in the first round with ease.
On the flip side, three of the five lowest-ranked teams in stolen bases made the playoffs last year. That includes the Giants, who ranked dead last. Only one playoff team -- the Rays -- ranked among the top five in stolen bases.
If you believe their claims, the Twins' front office seems to think they can improve their 94-win team by subtracting defensive proficiency and adding foot speed. That's a shaky proposition based on the way things played out last year. Whether or not you put much stock into UZR as a statistic, it was clearly more closely correlated with success this past year than stolen bases.
Of course, I don't really buy the rhetoric from the front office, and believe (and hope) their decisions this offseason have been guided almost entirely by a desire to cut costs.
Thursday, December 09, 2010
Hardy Trade Cripples Infield Depth
Over the past two years, we've seen the Twins do nothing but spend, spend, spend. During the 2009 season, they added Orlando Cabrera, Jon Rauch and Carl Pavano, taking on salary in each deal. In the ensuing offseason, they traded for J.J. Hardy, retained Pavano at a relatively high price, signed Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome, and handed Joe Mauer one of the largest contracts in baseball history. Last season, they traded for Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes during the summer, again taking on millions in additional salary. Then, at the outset of this offseason, we saw them outbid all other clubs for the negotiation rights to a premier Japanese player, who they intend to sign.
At some point, this ride had to come to a stop. The Twins are obviously enjoying much more financial freedom with the backing of Target Field, but payroll wasn't going to keep escalating forever. Today, we saw it come to a thundering halt with the trade of J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris to the Orioles for a pair of minor-league pitchers. The move was clearly a flat-out salary dump, and be assured, shaving a few million dollars from the payroll is the only positive thing it accomplishes.
After finding himself demoted not only from the major-league roster but also the 40-man roster during the 2010 season, Brendan Harris was owed $1.75 million next year as a result of a misguided contract handed to him last winter. The team's motives in moving him (while eating only $500,000 of his salary) aren't hard to figure out.
As for Hardy, Bill Smith's claim that "the driving force in trading the shortstop was the desire for a faster lineup" is either intended to mislead or demonstrative of some really poor logic. The Twins ranked fifth in the American League last year in runs scored despite down years from several key players (Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel) and costly injuries to two starters (Hardy and Justin Morneau). What the Twins needed to improve their already solid offensive production was better health; there's little evidence that a lack of speed was all that detrimental.
I've come to have a lot of respect for Smith's judgment as a general manager, so I'm going to go ahead and assume his statements were only meant to mask a fact that would not be well received by the public: the Twins have hit a financial wall.
The two pitchers received in the trade, Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey, should not be viewed as locks to make the big-league roster next year by any means. They're preferable to the brand of pitching prospect the Twins have often targeted in past trades, in that they throw hard and can miss some bats. But Jacobson is a 24-year-old who hasn't pitched above Single-A and Hoey, while capable of racking up tons of strikeouts, has issued a staggering 66 walks in 100 innings over the past two years at Double-A and Triple-A (think Juan Morillo).
At best, these pitchers will be a couple additional question marks to throw into a 2011 bullpen mix that's already full of them. And in giving away a player who -- when healthy -- is a legitimate MLB starting shortstop (anyone who thinks Hardy isn't above average simply hasn't looked at the numbers of his peers), the Twins are apparently committing to a pair of question marks in the middle infield. There's no telling how the numbers of Tsuyoshi Nishioka, slated to start at second, will translate to the States. And we have little reason to believe that Casilla is suited to start at shortstop in the major leagues. He rates terribly at the position defensively, has never played 100 games in a big-league season and holds a .249/.306/.327 career hitting line in the majors.
If the Twins couldn't afford to pay Hardy around $6 million next year, then they couldn't afford it. But it didn't have to be that way. Due to past mistakes, they're locked into paying Cuddyer $10.5 million and Capps $7 million or more. While I like the sentiment behind signing Nishioka, I don't like the idea of replacing an established commodity in Hardy with an unknown for the sake of saving a few million bucks. And if they go out and spend a bunch of money on re-signing Pavano, which they are reportedly making a "strong push" to do, this move looks dramatically worse. It means that the Twins had the money to retain Hardy, and that they're comfortable bringing back a pitch-to-contact, ground ball pitcher while removing two Gold Glove caliber defenders from their infield.
You pay for reliability. It's why the Yankees are in the playoffs every single year. Now, while their payroll is far from embarrassing, the Twins find themselves up against some financial limitations, due to escalating salaries and misallocation of funds. As a result, they're going to head into the 2011 season with several serious question marks that could potentially contribute to the team's demise.
In my opinion, the chances of either Casilla or Nishioka (or both) becoming liabilities as everyday players are much greater than the chances of either pitcher received in this trade making the team's bullpen significantly better next year. Perhaps down the line this deal will look better than it does right now, but as things stand this is probably the most disappointed I've been with any move during Smith's tenure as GM.
The Twins may be a large-market team in name at this point, but their inability to retain Hardy and carry some quality infield depth into the 2011 season is what differentiates them from the true big spenders out east, and it's the exact type of thing that will keep them from ever being able to surpass the Yankees in team talent.
At some point, this ride had to come to a stop. The Twins are obviously enjoying much more financial freedom with the backing of Target Field, but payroll wasn't going to keep escalating forever. Today, we saw it come to a thundering halt with the trade of J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris to the Orioles for a pair of minor-league pitchers. The move was clearly a flat-out salary dump, and be assured, shaving a few million dollars from the payroll is the only positive thing it accomplishes.
After finding himself demoted not only from the major-league roster but also the 40-man roster during the 2010 season, Brendan Harris was owed $1.75 million next year as a result of a misguided contract handed to him last winter. The team's motives in moving him (while eating only $500,000 of his salary) aren't hard to figure out.
As for Hardy, Bill Smith's claim that "the driving force in trading the shortstop was the desire for a faster lineup" is either intended to mislead or demonstrative of some really poor logic. The Twins ranked fifth in the American League last year in runs scored despite down years from several key players (Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel) and costly injuries to two starters (Hardy and Justin Morneau). What the Twins needed to improve their already solid offensive production was better health; there's little evidence that a lack of speed was all that detrimental.
I've come to have a lot of respect for Smith's judgment as a general manager, so I'm going to go ahead and assume his statements were only meant to mask a fact that would not be well received by the public: the Twins have hit a financial wall.
The two pitchers received in the trade, Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey, should not be viewed as locks to make the big-league roster next year by any means. They're preferable to the brand of pitching prospect the Twins have often targeted in past trades, in that they throw hard and can miss some bats. But Jacobson is a 24-year-old who hasn't pitched above Single-A and Hoey, while capable of racking up tons of strikeouts, has issued a staggering 66 walks in 100 innings over the past two years at Double-A and Triple-A (think Juan Morillo).
At best, these pitchers will be a couple additional question marks to throw into a 2011 bullpen mix that's already full of them. And in giving away a player who -- when healthy -- is a legitimate MLB starting shortstop (anyone who thinks Hardy isn't above average simply hasn't looked at the numbers of his peers), the Twins are apparently committing to a pair of question marks in the middle infield. There's no telling how the numbers of Tsuyoshi Nishioka, slated to start at second, will translate to the States. And we have little reason to believe that Casilla is suited to start at shortstop in the major leagues. He rates terribly at the position defensively, has never played 100 games in a big-league season and holds a .249/.306/.327 career hitting line in the majors.
If the Twins couldn't afford to pay Hardy around $6 million next year, then they couldn't afford it. But it didn't have to be that way. Due to past mistakes, they're locked into paying Cuddyer $10.5 million and Capps $7 million or more. While I like the sentiment behind signing Nishioka, I don't like the idea of replacing an established commodity in Hardy with an unknown for the sake of saving a few million bucks. And if they go out and spend a bunch of money on re-signing Pavano, which they are reportedly making a "strong push" to do, this move looks dramatically worse. It means that the Twins had the money to retain Hardy, and that they're comfortable bringing back a pitch-to-contact, ground ball pitcher while removing two Gold Glove caliber defenders from their infield.
You pay for reliability. It's why the Yankees are in the playoffs every single year. Now, while their payroll is far from embarrassing, the Twins find themselves up against some financial limitations, due to escalating salaries and misallocation of funds. As a result, they're going to head into the 2011 season with several serious question marks that could potentially contribute to the team's demise.
In my opinion, the chances of either Casilla or Nishioka (or both) becoming liabilities as everyday players are much greater than the chances of either pitcher received in this trade making the team's bullpen significantly better next year. Perhaps down the line this deal will look better than it does right now, but as things stand this is probably the most disappointed I've been with any move during Smith's tenure as GM.
The Twins may be a large-market team in name at this point, but their inability to retain Hardy and carry some quality infield depth into the 2011 season is what differentiates them from the true big spenders out east, and it's the exact type of thing that will keep them from ever being able to surpass the Yankees in team talent.
Monday, December 06, 2010
The Myth of Injury-Prone
A tweet on Friday afternoon from Kirsten Brown, administrator of K-Bro's Baseball Blog, posed the following question:
It's a buzzword that's been used a lot recently in connection with J.J. Hardy, who looms as one of this offseason's biggest question marks. Beat writer La Velle E. Neal III wrote over the weekend that the team plans on starting Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Alexi Casilla up the middle next year and that the Twins have already discussed a Hardy trade with "about six teams."
Many fans have expressed that they won't be sorry to see Hardy go, citing his inability to stay healthy as a fatal annoyance. Among them is my typically level-headed friend Twins Geek, who doesn't "trust" Hardy to stay healthy, and lists the following separate ailments as evidence that the shortstop is a ticking time-bomb: "Back issue in 2009, played 115 games. 2010, 101 games. 2006, just 35 games, for ankle. 2004, shoulder, missed almost all."
I'm wondering if the intimation here is that Hardy's bones are somehow more brittle than the average player, or that his tendons and muscles are abnormally weak. Is there any other way to explain this innate proneness to differing injuries? I don't think anyone who's watched him can claim that Hardy plays the game in an especially reckless manner; heck, the wrist injury that plagued him last year was a fluke suffered on a routine feet-first slide.
While posting stellar numbers in 2007 and 2008, Hardy missed very little time (11 and 16 games, respectively). Over the past two seasons, he has missed a total of 87 games (accounting for time spent in the minors). If missing significant time in two consecutive seasons because of separate injuries qualifies a player as fragile, then I guess you can tag any player on the Twins' roster, save for a few.
Joe Mauer missed the entire month of April in 2009 due to a lower back injury. This year, he missed even more games due to a variety of different ailments.
Justin Morneau was lost for all of September in 2009 because of a fractured vertebrae. This year a concussion knocked him out for the entire second half.
Back and thumb issues caused Michael Cuddyer to miss 18 games and sapped his power in 2007; he missed more than half the next season due to a cocktail of new injuries. (Cuddyer, by the way, has missed only 14 games total in two years since).
The list goes on, but there's your three top paid position players and they've all had lengthy stretches where they've had a hard time staying on the field. As a result, they've battled accusations of being "injury-prone," as if they're doing something wrong by getting hurt. Fans are painting some of the world's most pristine athletes out to be Samuel L. Jackson's character from "Unbreakable."
The reality is that these guys are playing a fast-moving sport at the highest level, where it's pretty easy to get hurt. Obviously they would like to avoid spending time on the disabled list but not everyone can be so lucky. In fact, very few players are lucky enough to evade major injury for several years in a row.
There are certain cases in which the injury-prone label makes sense. For example, when a player is perpetually bothered by the same ailment (Joe Crede comes to mind quickly). In addition, it has been proven -- and makes sense -- that players are more susceptible to injury as they age.
But am I supposed to believe that Hardy's bad luck with past injuries somehow makes him more likely than another player to miss significant time in the upcoming season? Assuming that his major wrist injury and minor knee injury from 2010 are in the rear-view mirror -- as Hardy has stated -- then the shortstop carries no lingering injury concerns going forward.
Sure, he might suffer another mishap and miss 40+ games for a third straight year at the age of 28. But when he was able to get on the field last year, Hardy was undoubtedly one of the best in the league at his position, in spite of playing through debilitating wrist pain at times. Bill Smith would be taking a pretty big risk by dumping that potential production for fear of another injury, especially if the plan is to entrust Casilla -- a perennial underachiever who has never played 100 games in an MLB season -- and Nishioka -- a relative unknown whose Wikipedia page points out that he has "established a reputation as somewhat of an injury-prone player" -- without any compelling insurance plan in place.
Without seeing what sort of follow-up moves might come along with it, I can't claim that dealing Hardy is the worst idea in the world. Maybe it's all part of a bigger plan. But considering how thin the market for middle infielders is at present, I have a really hard time seeing it. Shipping Hardy off with his value down over an irrational fear of injury or an obsession with increasing team speed would be tragically misguided.
Is Hardy an injury risk in 2011? Sure. So is everyone.
Hey baseball fans, what's your definition of "injury-prone"?Kirsten was wondering about the amount of time a player would have to miss on average to bear that description in people's minds, but lately I've been thinking more about the term itself. What does "injury-prone" really mean, and how often is it assigned unfairly?
It's a buzzword that's been used a lot recently in connection with J.J. Hardy, who looms as one of this offseason's biggest question marks. Beat writer La Velle E. Neal III wrote over the weekend that the team plans on starting Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Alexi Casilla up the middle next year and that the Twins have already discussed a Hardy trade with "about six teams."
Many fans have expressed that they won't be sorry to see Hardy go, citing his inability to stay healthy as a fatal annoyance. Among them is my typically level-headed friend Twins Geek, who doesn't "trust" Hardy to stay healthy, and lists the following separate ailments as evidence that the shortstop is a ticking time-bomb: "Back issue in 2009, played 115 games. 2010, 101 games. 2006, just 35 games, for ankle. 2004, shoulder, missed almost all."
I'm wondering if the intimation here is that Hardy's bones are somehow more brittle than the average player, or that his tendons and muscles are abnormally weak. Is there any other way to explain this innate proneness to differing injuries? I don't think anyone who's watched him can claim that Hardy plays the game in an especially reckless manner; heck, the wrist injury that plagued him last year was a fluke suffered on a routine feet-first slide.
While posting stellar numbers in 2007 and 2008, Hardy missed very little time (11 and 16 games, respectively). Over the past two seasons, he has missed a total of 87 games (accounting for time spent in the minors). If missing significant time in two consecutive seasons because of separate injuries qualifies a player as fragile, then I guess you can tag any player on the Twins' roster, save for a few.
Joe Mauer missed the entire month of April in 2009 due to a lower back injury. This year, he missed even more games due to a variety of different ailments.
Justin Morneau was lost for all of September in 2009 because of a fractured vertebrae. This year a concussion knocked him out for the entire second half.
Back and thumb issues caused Michael Cuddyer to miss 18 games and sapped his power in 2007; he missed more than half the next season due to a cocktail of new injuries. (Cuddyer, by the way, has missed only 14 games total in two years since).
The list goes on, but there's your three top paid position players and they've all had lengthy stretches where they've had a hard time staying on the field. As a result, they've battled accusations of being "injury-prone," as if they're doing something wrong by getting hurt. Fans are painting some of the world's most pristine athletes out to be Samuel L. Jackson's character from "Unbreakable."
The reality is that these guys are playing a fast-moving sport at the highest level, where it's pretty easy to get hurt. Obviously they would like to avoid spending time on the disabled list but not everyone can be so lucky. In fact, very few players are lucky enough to evade major injury for several years in a row.
There are certain cases in which the injury-prone label makes sense. For example, when a player is perpetually bothered by the same ailment (Joe Crede comes to mind quickly). In addition, it has been proven -- and makes sense -- that players are more susceptible to injury as they age.
But am I supposed to believe that Hardy's bad luck with past injuries somehow makes him more likely than another player to miss significant time in the upcoming season? Assuming that his major wrist injury and minor knee injury from 2010 are in the rear-view mirror -- as Hardy has stated -- then the shortstop carries no lingering injury concerns going forward.
Sure, he might suffer another mishap and miss 40+ games for a third straight year at the age of 28. But when he was able to get on the field last year, Hardy was undoubtedly one of the best in the league at his position, in spite of playing through debilitating wrist pain at times. Bill Smith would be taking a pretty big risk by dumping that potential production for fear of another injury, especially if the plan is to entrust Casilla -- a perennial underachiever who has never played 100 games in an MLB season -- and Nishioka -- a relative unknown whose Wikipedia page points out that he has "established a reputation as somewhat of an injury-prone player" -- without any compelling insurance plan in place.
Without seeing what sort of follow-up moves might come along with it, I can't claim that dealing Hardy is the worst idea in the world. Maybe it's all part of a bigger plan. But considering how thin the market for middle infielders is at present, I have a really hard time seeing it. Shipping Hardy off with his value down over an irrational fear of injury or an obsession with increasing team speed would be tragically misguided.
Is Hardy an injury risk in 2011? Sure. So is everyone.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Monday Notes
Catching up on a few different items...
* First, with Thanksgiving fresh in the rearview mirror, I wanted to send out a big THANK YOU to everyone who has purchased a copy of the TwinsCentric 2010-11 Offseason GM Handbook. Sales for this year's version were absolutely excellent, shattering our expectations.
Of all the different types of products we've created under the TwinsCentric label, the Handbook is my personal favorite so I'm glad to see it has essentially become our flagship publication. I hope each person who picked up a copy this year has been enjoying it while continuing to use it as a reference as action ramps up this offseason and the Winter Meetings approach. If you don't have one, you can still order yours at the TwinsCentric home page.
* One of the few shortstops listed as a free agent option in the Handbook, Juan Uribe, came off the market today as the Dodgers signed him to a three-year, $21 million deal.
That's an astonishingly large contract, given that Uribe hit .248 in 2010 and two years ago was basically a replacement-level player. However, with Derek Jeter reportedly seeking $20 million a year and ultimately likely to stick with the Yankees, Uribe stood out as the top shortstop available through free agency and the Dodgers pounced with an aggressive offer.
The numbers posted last year by Uribe and Jeter may not seem particularly impressive, but both play a position without strong depth around the league, which inflates their value tremendously. This brings us to J.J. Hardy, who is looking like more and more of a bargain on a one-year contract at the $7 million or so he'd make through arbitration. It sounds like the Twins will tender him a contract, which is an absolute no-brainer, but still may seek to trade him. If so, hopefully they will recognize the very apparent league-wide demand for quality shortstops and command a fitting return. Incidentally, the Giants now have an opening at shortstop and could be a logical trading partner for the Twins.
* Tuesday night marks the deadline for free agents Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson and Jesse Crain to accept or decline the Twins' arbitration offers. I guessed last week "that all three will opt for free agency, with Crain being the only one I could see going the other way." It seems clear that both and Pavano and Hudson will indeed decline, and with Crain already reportedly drawing interest from nine different teams, there's little doubt that he'll test the open market as well. If all three players sign elsewhere, the Twins would be rewarded with four additional high picks in next June's draft.
* All in all, it's been a pretty quiet offseason up to this point for Twins fans and while I'm sure things will heat up in the coming weeks, I'm always looking for new ways to keep things lively here at the blog over the winter. If there are any topics you'd like to see covered, please be sure to mention them in the comments section or via email. I've also considered setting up occasional live chats that would take place here on the site, in which we can discuss Twins-related topics of all sorts. Yes? No? If so, what time of day works best for people?
* First, with Thanksgiving fresh in the rearview mirror, I wanted to send out a big THANK YOU to everyone who has purchased a copy of the TwinsCentric 2010-11 Offseason GM Handbook. Sales for this year's version were absolutely excellent, shattering our expectations.
Of all the different types of products we've created under the TwinsCentric label, the Handbook is my personal favorite so I'm glad to see it has essentially become our flagship publication. I hope each person who picked up a copy this year has been enjoying it while continuing to use it as a reference as action ramps up this offseason and the Winter Meetings approach. If you don't have one, you can still order yours at the TwinsCentric home page.
* One of the few shortstops listed as a free agent option in the Handbook, Juan Uribe, came off the market today as the Dodgers signed him to a three-year, $21 million deal.
That's an astonishingly large contract, given that Uribe hit .248 in 2010 and two years ago was basically a replacement-level player. However, with Derek Jeter reportedly seeking $20 million a year and ultimately likely to stick with the Yankees, Uribe stood out as the top shortstop available through free agency and the Dodgers pounced with an aggressive offer.
The numbers posted last year by Uribe and Jeter may not seem particularly impressive, but both play a position without strong depth around the league, which inflates their value tremendously. This brings us to J.J. Hardy, who is looking like more and more of a bargain on a one-year contract at the $7 million or so he'd make through arbitration. It sounds like the Twins will tender him a contract, which is an absolute no-brainer, but still may seek to trade him. If so, hopefully they will recognize the very apparent league-wide demand for quality shortstops and command a fitting return. Incidentally, the Giants now have an opening at shortstop and could be a logical trading partner for the Twins.
* Tuesday night marks the deadline for free agents Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson and Jesse Crain to accept or decline the Twins' arbitration offers. I guessed last week "that all three will opt for free agency, with Crain being the only one I could see going the other way." It seems clear that both and Pavano and Hudson will indeed decline, and with Crain already reportedly drawing interest from nine different teams, there's little doubt that he'll test the open market as well. If all three players sign elsewhere, the Twins would be rewarded with four additional high picks in next June's draft.
* All in all, it's been a pretty quiet offseason up to this point for Twins fans and while I'm sure things will heat up in the coming weeks, I'm always looking for new ways to keep things lively here at the blog over the winter. If there are any topics you'd like to see covered, please be sure to mention them in the comments section or via email. I've also considered setting up occasional live chats that would take place here on the site, in which we can discuss Twins-related topics of all sorts. Yes? No? If so, what time of day works best for people?
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Coming Up Short
One of the most important and immediate decisions that the Twins' front office will face this offseason is whether or not to offer arbitration to J.J. Hardy. There a number of other interesting arbitration cases, but few seem as up in the air as Hardy's. It's not difficult to see why.
Hardy earned $5.1 million in 2010, and is entering his final year of team control. If the Twins offer him arbitration, they will lock up his services for 2011 while also guaranteeing him a raise of at least a million (in the Offseason GM Handbook, we projected his salary at $6.5 million). That seems like a hefty price to pay for a shortstop who characteristically struggled with injuries while posting unspectacular offensive numbers for a second straight year.
This decision represents a gamble of sorts. If Bill Smith decides to offer Hardy arbitration, he's gambling that the shortstop can put together a healthier campaign next year, because it's hard to justify such a large salary for a player that's only going to play 101 games (as he did this year) while putting forth somewhat meager production.
If Smith decides not to offer Hardy arbitration, he's gambling that he can find a better and perhaps less expensive option elsewhere. That could be Alexi Casilla, though I suspect he's currently pegged to start at second base next year with Orlando Hudson set to depart. It could conceivably be Trevor Plouffe, but that's highly doubtful given his pedestrian minor-league track record and lack of big-league success.
Non-tendering Hardy probably seems like a no-brainer to some. He came nowhere close to replicating his 2007/08 production, as many had hoped, and couldn't really stay on the field this year. However, when we compare Hardy's contributions to those of other shortstops across the league, his numbers start to look a whole lot more impressive.
Let's run through the players who led each American League club in games played at shortstop this year. Listed alongside each player are their core offensive numbers, and I'll also include each player's UZR/150 in an effort to get a snapshot of their defensive proficiency, while acknowledging that Ultimate Zone Rating -- like all fielding metrics -- is flawed, especially over a one-year sample. Finally, I'll include their WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, a figure meant to represent the number of wins they contributed over a replacement-level player based on a formula developed by FanGraphs that factors in both offense and defense.
We start with our own guy:
TWINS: J.J. Hardy
101 G, .268/.320/.394, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 12.8 UZR/150, 2.4 WAR
Now, the rest of the AL:
ORIOLES: Cesar Izturis
150 G, .230/.277/.268, 1 HR, 28 RBI, 5.8 UZR/150, -0.3 WAR
RED SOX: Marco Scutaro
150 G, .275/.333/.388, 11 HR, 56 RBI, -3.3 UZR/150, 2.1 WAR
WHITE SOX: Alexei Ramirez
156 G, .282/.313/.431, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 10.1 UZR/150, 3.8 WAR
INDIANS: Asdrubal Cabrera
97 G, .276/.326/.346, 3 HR, 29 RBI, -13.4 UZR/150, 0.5 WAR
TIGERS: Ramon Santiago
112 G, .263/.337/.325, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 16.1 UZR/150, 2.0 WAR
ROYALS: Yuniesky Betancourt
151 G, .259/.288/.405, 16 HR, 78 RBI, -9.2 UZR/150, 0.6 WAR
ANGELS: Erick Aybar
138 G, .253/.306/.330, 5 HR, 29 RBI, -2.6 UZR/150, 0.9 WAR
YANKEES: Derek Jeter
157 G, .270/.340/.370, 10 HR, 67 RBI, -5.4 UZR/150, 2.5 WAR
ATHLETICS: Cliff Pennington
156 G, .250/.319/.368, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 8.8 UZR/150, 3.7 WAR
MARINERS: Josh Wilson
108 G, .227/.278/.294, 2 HR, 25 RBI, -2.9 UZR/150, -0.3 WAR
RAYS: Jason Bartlett
135 G, .254/.324/.350, 4 HR, 47 RBI, -13.8 UZR/150, 0.7 WAR
RANGERS: Elvis Andrus
148 G, .265/.342/.301, 0 HR, 35 RBI, 0.3 UZR/150, 1.5 WAR
BLUE JAYS: Alex Gonzalez (includes second-half numbers w/ Braves)
157 G, .250/.294/.447, 23 HR, 88 RBI, 5.1 UZR/150, 3.4 WAR
So, there you have it. If you were underwhelmed by Hardy's numbers before looking at this list, you're probably not anymore. Despite the fact that injuries limited the Twins' shortstop to 101 games and tainted his overall production when he was able to get on the field, only FOUR shorstops in the Junior Circuit managed a higher WAR.
Now, I'm not going to say that WAR is a perfect stat, but it is cumulative so the fact that Hardy's mark was fifth best in the AL despite his missing close to half the season says something about the state of regular shortstops in this league. There just aren't very many good ones, and very few who can hit for power or play truly outstanding defense. Even though Hardy played in only 101 games and his six home runs were fewer than we'd expect from him based on his history, only four players at his position hit more homers. Just one AL shortstop rated better defensively according to UZR.
Hardy's numbers only look bad when you look at them in isolation and not in the context of his position and league. Darn near every other team in the AL would like to upgrade at shortstop, and the free agent market at that position is exceedingly thin so Hardy would get snatched up very quickly with no real desirable options left over.
It's for that reason that I have always felt, and continue to feel, that bringing back Hardy is a no-brainer, even if the price seems high. I hope Smith and the Twins feel the same way.
Hardy earned $5.1 million in 2010, and is entering his final year of team control. If the Twins offer him arbitration, they will lock up his services for 2011 while also guaranteeing him a raise of at least a million (in the Offseason GM Handbook, we projected his salary at $6.5 million). That seems like a hefty price to pay for a shortstop who characteristically struggled with injuries while posting unspectacular offensive numbers for a second straight year.
This decision represents a gamble of sorts. If Bill Smith decides to offer Hardy arbitration, he's gambling that the shortstop can put together a healthier campaign next year, because it's hard to justify such a large salary for a player that's only going to play 101 games (as he did this year) while putting forth somewhat meager production.
If Smith decides not to offer Hardy arbitration, he's gambling that he can find a better and perhaps less expensive option elsewhere. That could be Alexi Casilla, though I suspect he's currently pegged to start at second base next year with Orlando Hudson set to depart. It could conceivably be Trevor Plouffe, but that's highly doubtful given his pedestrian minor-league track record and lack of big-league success.
Non-tendering Hardy probably seems like a no-brainer to some. He came nowhere close to replicating his 2007/08 production, as many had hoped, and couldn't really stay on the field this year. However, when we compare Hardy's contributions to those of other shortstops across the league, his numbers start to look a whole lot more impressive.
Let's run through the players who led each American League club in games played at shortstop this year. Listed alongside each player are their core offensive numbers, and I'll also include each player's UZR/150 in an effort to get a snapshot of their defensive proficiency, while acknowledging that Ultimate Zone Rating -- like all fielding metrics -- is flawed, especially over a one-year sample. Finally, I'll include their WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, a figure meant to represent the number of wins they contributed over a replacement-level player based on a formula developed by FanGraphs that factors in both offense and defense.
We start with our own guy:
TWINS: J.J. Hardy
101 G, .268/.320/.394, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 12.8 UZR/150, 2.4 WAR
Now, the rest of the AL:
ORIOLES: Cesar Izturis
150 G, .230/.277/.268, 1 HR, 28 RBI, 5.8 UZR/150, -0.3 WAR
RED SOX: Marco Scutaro
150 G, .275/.333/.388, 11 HR, 56 RBI, -3.3 UZR/150, 2.1 WAR
WHITE SOX: Alexei Ramirez
156 G, .282/.313/.431, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 10.1 UZR/150, 3.8 WAR
INDIANS: Asdrubal Cabrera
97 G, .276/.326/.346, 3 HR, 29 RBI, -13.4 UZR/150, 0.5 WAR
TIGERS: Ramon Santiago
112 G, .263/.337/.325, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 16.1 UZR/150, 2.0 WAR
ROYALS: Yuniesky Betancourt
151 G, .259/.288/.405, 16 HR, 78 RBI, -9.2 UZR/150, 0.6 WAR
ANGELS: Erick Aybar
138 G, .253/.306/.330, 5 HR, 29 RBI, -2.6 UZR/150, 0.9 WAR
YANKEES: Derek Jeter
157 G, .270/.340/.370, 10 HR, 67 RBI, -5.4 UZR/150, 2.5 WAR
ATHLETICS: Cliff Pennington
156 G, .250/.319/.368, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 8.8 UZR/150, 3.7 WAR
MARINERS: Josh Wilson
108 G, .227/.278/.294, 2 HR, 25 RBI, -2.9 UZR/150, -0.3 WAR
RAYS: Jason Bartlett
135 G, .254/.324/.350, 4 HR, 47 RBI, -13.8 UZR/150, 0.7 WAR
RANGERS: Elvis Andrus
148 G, .265/.342/.301, 0 HR, 35 RBI, 0.3 UZR/150, 1.5 WAR
BLUE JAYS: Alex Gonzalez (includes second-half numbers w/ Braves)
157 G, .250/.294/.447, 23 HR, 88 RBI, 5.1 UZR/150, 3.4 WAR
So, there you have it. If you were underwhelmed by Hardy's numbers before looking at this list, you're probably not anymore. Despite the fact that injuries limited the Twins' shortstop to 101 games and tainted his overall production when he was able to get on the field, only FOUR shorstops in the Junior Circuit managed a higher WAR.
Now, I'm not going to say that WAR is a perfect stat, but it is cumulative so the fact that Hardy's mark was fifth best in the AL despite his missing close to half the season says something about the state of regular shortstops in this league. There just aren't very many good ones, and very few who can hit for power or play truly outstanding defense. Even though Hardy played in only 101 games and his six home runs were fewer than we'd expect from him based on his history, only four players at his position hit more homers. Just one AL shortstop rated better defensively according to UZR.
Hardy's numbers only look bad when you look at them in isolation and not in the context of his position and league. Darn near every other team in the AL would like to upgrade at shortstop, and the free agent market at that position is exceedingly thin so Hardy would get snatched up very quickly with no real desirable options left over.
It's for that reason that I have always felt, and continue to feel, that bringing back Hardy is a no-brainer, even if the price seems high. I hope Smith and the Twins feel the same way.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Credit Where It's Due
It's easy to be impressed by the results of the Twins' four-game series in Tampa Bay this week. They went on the road to face arguably the best team in baseball and came away with a split. They rebounded from tough losses in the first two games of the series to gain big victories in the final two, building momentum as they travel to Cleveland and Chicago for the final two legs of their current road trip.
It's less easy to be impressed by the way they achieved those results. On Wednesday night, the Twins let a one-run lead slip away in the ninth inning, wasting a brilliant start from Scott Baker and forcing a 13-inning marathon before finally managing to pull off the victory. Today, Kevin Slowey and the bullpen crumbled late in the game as the Rays erased a 6-0 deficit before the Twins, again, were able to scratch out a late victory.
It was tough to watch the Twins allow a pair of games they'd been in complete control of slip away late. But these are the types of games that are extremely difficult to win on the road, especially against a fantastic team like the Rays, and the Twins do deserve a lot of credit for managing to finish the job in both the final two contests in this series.
They probably won't experience the good fortune of having a routine pop-up hit off a cat walk and land in the middle of the infield to score the winning run if they face the Rays again in the playoffs, but the Twins did play neck and neck throughout this series with a team that is tied for the MLB lead in victories. The Twins received gritty pitching performances in the first two games, losing on both occasions only because their offense was stymied by a very good starter, and more importantly they received dominant performances on the road from Slowey and Baker in the final two games. Those two have struggled immensely when pitching outside of Target Field this season, so for both to step up against a great team in a statement series like this speaks volumes about how far they have come and helps legitimize their recent success against weaker lineups.
In the spirit of assigning credit (and blame) where it is due, here are some other notes on the series in Tampa:
* There was plenty of head-shaking after newly acquired Matt Capps coughed up his first big save situation for his new team on Wednesday, as he came in with a 1-0 ninth-inning lead and allowed the tying run to cross the plate, but anyone who watched the game can hardly hold Capps accountable for the blown save.
Evan Longoria led off the ninth inning by hitting a fly ball to left field. It was a ball that most left fielders around the league would have caught in the air, and at worst it should have been smothered for a single, but Delmon Young awkwardly slid into it and kicked it back toward the infield, allowing Longoria to move into scoring position as the tying run with no outs. He'd eventually score.
The muffed play by Young was just one of many miscues in a game that was easily the ugliest of the season from a defensive standpoint for the Twins outfield, as he and Denard Span failed to track down numerous catchable balls. Miraculously, the Twins still only allowed one run in 13 innings -- all the more reason to praise Baker and the bullpen for their outsanding work in the game -- but Wednesday night's contest spotlighted something that has been a subtle issue for this club all year long: poor outfield defense is costing the Twins' pitchers.
With his minimal range and terrible instincts in the outfield, Young seems destined to become a designated hitter within the next few years. He probably should be one already. Keep that in mind when this premature MVP talk starts bubbling up.
* I have to admit, I have taken quite a liking to Jason Repko. His stellar play in the outfield has been a breath of fresh air in light of the issues mentioned above, and it doesn't hurt that his bat has been red-hot when he's gotten into the lineup, racking up a .319/.385/.617 hitting line with three homers and five doubles in 55 plate appearances.
I've enjoyed Repko's play so much that on Wednesday night I jokingly started using a #Repko4MVP hashtag on Twitter, though the gag seemed a little less silly yesterday when Repko was a crucial contributor in the Twins' victory.
Obviously he won't continue to hit like this, but a solid .274/.336/.433 hitting line in the minors (including .289/.357/.461 in Triple-A) suggests that there's no reason he can't keep his bat afloat, and if he's able to do that while maintaining his rangy defense in the outfield, he figures to be a useful piece for the Twins down the stretch.
Just maybe not an MVP. Yet.
* Speaking of unsustainably hot recent performances, I'd be remiss not to mention the play of Drew Butera, who has now started five consecutive games at catcher with Joe Mauer's shoulder aching. In those five games, Butera has gone 4-for-15 with a homer and a double while performing well defensively.
The "hot streak" has raised Butera's overall hitting line .205/.237/.341, which borders on palatable for a defensive specialist in the majors. However, before anyone starts getting keen on the idea of keeping Butera in the lineup more regularly even after Mauer's shoulder has healed, keep in mind that the kid has a long (LONG) history of not hitting in the minors.
Soon enough, he'll go back to being a massive liability with the bat, and -- as the first two games of this series against the Rays helped illustrate -- that's something the Twins can ill afford against contending clubs with good pitching staffs.
* J.J. Hardy has been on a tear since the All-Star break, and after going 3-for-4 in yesterday's contest he's hitting .270/.310/.398 on the season. The average MLB shortstop has hit .264/.322/.371 this year, so Hardy's production is firmly above average for his position. When accounting for his spectacular defense, Hardy has been a very good contributor for the Twins this season in spite of his wrist issues; meanwhile, while his defense in the outfield is missed, Carlos Gomez has essentially made zero strides offensively in Milwaukee. Looking like a nice trade for Bill Smith.
* Has there been a more enigmatic player than Alexi Casilla over the past few years? An apparent breakout season in 2008, when he hit .281/.333/.374 as a 23-year-old while helping the Twins mount a late charge for the AL Central crown, was followed up by an absolutely abysmal season in '09. Casilla has spent much of this season on the shelf, but he's returned to fill in at second with Orlando Hudson on the shelf and has performed admirably, using a combination of plate discipline in speed produce solid offensive numbers much like he did in '08.
His defense has also looked spectacular at times, most notably on the play that ended today's game, when Casilla ran about 20 feet to his left to track down a grounder and threw to first while twirling in mid-air to retire the speedy Carl Crawford.
During his career in Minnesota, I have seen Casilla track down some seemingly unreachable ground balls, yet UZR pegs him as a very poor second baseman, with a -9.7 rating in close to 2,000 MLB innings at the position. It strikes me that, like with his offense, Casilla's inconsistency on defense is mostly mental. The kid clearly has enough talent to be playing in the big leagues, but seemingly has a tough time staying focused. Whatever he's doing right now, hopefully he is able to keep it up until Hudson returns and beyond.
It's less easy to be impressed by the way they achieved those results. On Wednesday night, the Twins let a one-run lead slip away in the ninth inning, wasting a brilliant start from Scott Baker and forcing a 13-inning marathon before finally managing to pull off the victory. Today, Kevin Slowey and the bullpen crumbled late in the game as the Rays erased a 6-0 deficit before the Twins, again, were able to scratch out a late victory.
It was tough to watch the Twins allow a pair of games they'd been in complete control of slip away late. But these are the types of games that are extremely difficult to win on the road, especially against a fantastic team like the Rays, and the Twins do deserve a lot of credit for managing to finish the job in both the final two contests in this series.
They probably won't experience the good fortune of having a routine pop-up hit off a cat walk and land in the middle of the infield to score the winning run if they face the Rays again in the playoffs, but the Twins did play neck and neck throughout this series with a team that is tied for the MLB lead in victories. The Twins received gritty pitching performances in the first two games, losing on both occasions only because their offense was stymied by a very good starter, and more importantly they received dominant performances on the road from Slowey and Baker in the final two games. Those two have struggled immensely when pitching outside of Target Field this season, so for both to step up against a great team in a statement series like this speaks volumes about how far they have come and helps legitimize their recent success against weaker lineups.
In the spirit of assigning credit (and blame) where it is due, here are some other notes on the series in Tampa:
* There was plenty of head-shaking after newly acquired Matt Capps coughed up his first big save situation for his new team on Wednesday, as he came in with a 1-0 ninth-inning lead and allowed the tying run to cross the plate, but anyone who watched the game can hardly hold Capps accountable for the blown save.
Evan Longoria led off the ninth inning by hitting a fly ball to left field. It was a ball that most left fielders around the league would have caught in the air, and at worst it should have been smothered for a single, but Delmon Young awkwardly slid into it and kicked it back toward the infield, allowing Longoria to move into scoring position as the tying run with no outs. He'd eventually score.
The muffed play by Young was just one of many miscues in a game that was easily the ugliest of the season from a defensive standpoint for the Twins outfield, as he and Denard Span failed to track down numerous catchable balls. Miraculously, the Twins still only allowed one run in 13 innings -- all the more reason to praise Baker and the bullpen for their outsanding work in the game -- but Wednesday night's contest spotlighted something that has been a subtle issue for this club all year long: poor outfield defense is costing the Twins' pitchers.
With his minimal range and terrible instincts in the outfield, Young seems destined to become a designated hitter within the next few years. He probably should be one already. Keep that in mind when this premature MVP talk starts bubbling up.
* I have to admit, I have taken quite a liking to Jason Repko. His stellar play in the outfield has been a breath of fresh air in light of the issues mentioned above, and it doesn't hurt that his bat has been red-hot when he's gotten into the lineup, racking up a .319/.385/.617 hitting line with three homers and five doubles in 55 plate appearances.
I've enjoyed Repko's play so much that on Wednesday night I jokingly started using a #Repko4MVP hashtag on Twitter, though the gag seemed a little less silly yesterday when Repko was a crucial contributor in the Twins' victory.
Obviously he won't continue to hit like this, but a solid .274/.336/.433 hitting line in the minors (including .289/.357/.461 in Triple-A) suggests that there's no reason he can't keep his bat afloat, and if he's able to do that while maintaining his rangy defense in the outfield, he figures to be a useful piece for the Twins down the stretch.
Just maybe not an MVP. Yet.
* Speaking of unsustainably hot recent performances, I'd be remiss not to mention the play of Drew Butera, who has now started five consecutive games at catcher with Joe Mauer's shoulder aching. In those five games, Butera has gone 4-for-15 with a homer and a double while performing well defensively.
The "hot streak" has raised Butera's overall hitting line .205/.237/.341, which borders on palatable for a defensive specialist in the majors. However, before anyone starts getting keen on the idea of keeping Butera in the lineup more regularly even after Mauer's shoulder has healed, keep in mind that the kid has a long (LONG) history of not hitting in the minors.
Soon enough, he'll go back to being a massive liability with the bat, and -- as the first two games of this series against the Rays helped illustrate -- that's something the Twins can ill afford against contending clubs with good pitching staffs.
* J.J. Hardy has been on a tear since the All-Star break, and after going 3-for-4 in yesterday's contest he's hitting .270/.310/.398 on the season. The average MLB shortstop has hit .264/.322/.371 this year, so Hardy's production is firmly above average for his position. When accounting for his spectacular defense, Hardy has been a very good contributor for the Twins this season in spite of his wrist issues; meanwhile, while his defense in the outfield is missed, Carlos Gomez has essentially made zero strides offensively in Milwaukee. Looking like a nice trade for Bill Smith.
* Has there been a more enigmatic player than Alexi Casilla over the past few years? An apparent breakout season in 2008, when he hit .281/.333/.374 as a 23-year-old while helping the Twins mount a late charge for the AL Central crown, was followed up by an absolutely abysmal season in '09. Casilla has spent much of this season on the shelf, but he's returned to fill in at second with Orlando Hudson on the shelf and has performed admirably, using a combination of plate discipline in speed produce solid offensive numbers much like he did in '08.
His defense has also looked spectacular at times, most notably on the play that ended today's game, when Casilla ran about 20 feet to his left to track down a grounder and threw to first while twirling in mid-air to retire the speedy Carl Crawford.
During his career in Minnesota, I have seen Casilla track down some seemingly unreachable ground balls, yet UZR pegs him as a very poor second baseman, with a -9.7 rating in close to 2,000 MLB innings at the position. It strikes me that, like with his offense, Casilla's inconsistency on defense is mostly mental. The kid clearly has enough talent to be playing in the big leagues, but seemingly has a tough time staying focused. Whatever he's doing right now, hopefully he is able to keep it up until Hudson returns and beyond.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Hard Times for J.J. Hardy
J.J. Hardy's best game as a Minnesota Twin was, ironically, the one that has largely ruined his 2010 season.
Yet, the ball never got to Young. Hardy flashed his amazing range, sprinting and diving to his right to stop the ball. Avila realized too late that the grounder had been fielded in the infield, and by the time he slammed on the brakes in an effort to get back to third, Hardy had already delivered the ball to Nick Punto, who slapped a tag on Avila to end the inning.
We'd learn a couple days later, however, that Hardy had hurt his wrist while sliding into third base on that game-breaking triple. And what initially seemed like a minor hurdle has transformed into a debilitating issue for Hardy, resulting in two separate disabled list stints and multiple cortisone shots while likely contributing to a punchless .186 average when he's been able to get into the lineup since that date.
Now, though, Hardy finally appears to be back at full strength. He's hit .286 since coming off the DL earlier this month, and while he still hasn't homered since April 23, it does seem like he's finally starting to hit the ball with some authority again. Hardy's strikeout rate is down this year, so it's not like he's looked completely lost at the plate. If his wrist is fully healthy, we can expect his .252 batting average on balls in play and 6.8 HR/FB ratio (both well below his career averages) to both rise in the second half, leading to much better offensive production.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Twins Missing Their Middle Infielders
The Twins have a long history of dominating interleague competition and they've generally looked very good when playing at Target Field this season. Unfortunately, they lost two of three at home against the Braves this weekend because neither of those trends could outweigh their recent silence with the bats.
After scoring 118 runs in April and 133 in May, the Twins are on pace to score just 99 in June. They briefly emerged from their recent offensive slump by beating up on the Royals throughout a three-game series last week, but outside of that series the Twins simply have not been putting many runs on the board over the past few weeks.
It's not difficult to find the culprit for the team's recent drop-off in run production. Their thin infield depth has been exposed by injuries to both Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy. Trevor Plouffe and Matt Tolbert, called up to help fill the big-league club's middle-infield void, have both struggled immensely on offense, and lamentably Ron Gardenhire's misguided lineup decisions have enabled those poor performances to cause increased negative impact at the top of the batting order. Brendan Harris, forced into duty by the various injuries around the infield, has stunningly continued to show no offensive pulse whatsoever. He has just five hits -- all singles -- in his last 53 at-bats.
Hudson is expected to return to the lineup on Tuesday, and the Twins need to hope he's healthy enough to pick up where he left off because they could sorely use a jolt at the top of the lineup. We'll still probably be looking at a regular left-side combination of Plouffe and Nick Punto, which will likely continue to be an offensive liability. Hudson will be most welcome, though, because he will keep Plouffe and Tolbert out of the second spot in the lineup.
After scoring 118 runs in April and 133 in May, the Twins are on pace to score just 99 in June. They briefly emerged from their recent offensive slump by beating up on the Royals throughout a three-game series last week, but outside of that series the Twins simply have not been putting many runs on the board over the past few weeks.
It's not difficult to find the culprit for the team's recent drop-off in run production. Their thin infield depth has been exposed by injuries to both Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy. Trevor Plouffe and Matt Tolbert, called up to help fill the big-league club's middle-infield void, have both struggled immensely on offense, and lamentably Ron Gardenhire's misguided lineup decisions have enabled those poor performances to cause increased negative impact at the top of the batting order. Brendan Harris, forced into duty by the various injuries around the infield, has stunningly continued to show no offensive pulse whatsoever. He has just five hits -- all singles -- in his last 53 at-bats.
Hudson is expected to return to the lineup on Tuesday, and the Twins need to hope he's healthy enough to pick up where he left off because they could sorely use a jolt at the top of the lineup. We'll still probably be looking at a regular left-side combination of Plouffe and Nick Punto, which will likely continue to be an offensive liability. Hudson will be most welcome, though, because he will keep Plouffe and Tolbert out of the second spot in the lineup.
Friday, April 09, 2010
Master Blasters
Last year, the Twins ranked fourth in the American League in runs scored with 817. That's impressive. They also hit 173 homers to rank ninth out of 14 AL clubs, which -- while hardly astounding -- represented an improvement from their usual standing among the bottom two or three teams in the long ball department.
This year, the Twins brought back every key offensive player from last year's roster while (perhaps dramatically) upgrading both middle infield spots and signing a Hall of Famer to serve as a part-time bench bat. This created a lot of enthusiasm amongst fans eager to see what this loaded lineup could do.
Just four games into the season, these Twins have given us a pretty good idea. Already they've blasted nine home runs (last year it took them until April 17 to reach that mark) and they've demonstrated an ability go get power from the bottom of the order, something rarely seen around these parts. Delmon Young and JJ Hardy, who typically will serve in the No. 7 and 8 spots in the order, each homered twice in Anaheim. Unsurprisingly, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Jim Thome have gotten in on the action as well, and it surely won't be long until Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel join the parade.
The score in last night's game went from 3-1 to 10-1 in an awful hurry. That's the beauty of the multi-run homer, which will be a more potent weapon for the Twins this season than perhaps ever before. Sort of a surreal feeling.
This year, the Twins brought back every key offensive player from last year's roster while (perhaps dramatically) upgrading both middle infield spots and signing a Hall of Famer to serve as a part-time bench bat. This created a lot of enthusiasm amongst fans eager to see what this loaded lineup could do.
Just four games into the season, these Twins have given us a pretty good idea. Already they've blasted nine home runs (last year it took them until April 17 to reach that mark) and they've demonstrated an ability go get power from the bottom of the order, something rarely seen around these parts. Delmon Young and JJ Hardy, who typically will serve in the No. 7 and 8 spots in the order, each homered twice in Anaheim. Unsurprisingly, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Jim Thome have gotten in on the action as well, and it surely won't be long until Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel join the parade.
The score in last night's game went from 3-1 to 10-1 in an awful hurry. That's the beauty of the multi-run homer, which will be a more potent weapon for the Twins this season than perhaps ever before. Sort of a surreal feeling.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Position Analysis: Shortstop
Likely Starter: J.J. Hardy
2009 Stats: .229/.302/.357, 11 HR, 47 RBI
Will a change of scenery help Hardy rebound from a brutal '09 season?
Potential Backups: Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, Alexi Casilla
The Twins entered the 2009 season with Nick Punto as their starting shortstop and finished it with Orlando Cabrera there. If you're wondering how urgently they wanted to upgrade beyond those two, it should be clear from the fact that Bill Smith pulled the trigger on a trade for J.J. Hardy just days after the conclusion of the World Series, while other organizations were still drawing up their offseason plans.
Many fans viewed the addition of Cabrera at the trade deadline last year as an integral part of the team's late surge to the postseason. That makes sense, given the timeline; Cabrera arrived at the end of July with the Twins' record at .500 and by the end of the year he was one of the first players charging onto the field as Carlos Gomez crossed home plate to send the Twins to the playoffs after the team had gone in 34-25 over the final two months of the season with Cabrera as their starting shortstop.
While Cabrera was a relatively productive player in the second half last year, his defense left plenty to be desired and his lack of on-base skills made him a rather poor fit for the No. 2 spot in the lineup. He also turned 35 years old just after the season ended, so retaining him would have, at best, given the Twins yet another passable one-year stopgap at short. Given the team's existing instability at second and third, Smith wanted to go a new direction at short and find a player who could settle in as a long-term solution. He hopes he's found that player in Hardy.
By now, we all know Hardy's story. He came into the league as a 22-year-old, and in his third season turned into a stud, ripping 26 homers and driving in 80 runs while posting a .277/.323/.463 as a 24-year-old shortstop with an excellent glove. That's a tremendous performance -- one that earned Hardy his first All-Star appearance -- and he followed it up with a similarly dazzling effort in 2008, when he batted .283/.343/.478 with 24 home runs and 74 RBI while remaining stellar in the field.
At that point, Hardy was a 26-year-old power-hitting shortstop with excellent defense and several years of team control; he was a player any team in the league would have loved to get their hands on, but one that would require a pretty overwhelming package to pry away from the Brewers.
What a difference a year makes. Last year, Hardy stumbled out of the gates, hitting just .156 over the first month of the season, and after rebounding a bit in May, he slumped through the next couple months and found himself demoted to Triple-A in mid-August (a move that could have had as much to do with delaying his free agent eligibility as getting him out of the Brewers lineup). Hardy returned to Milwaukee in September, but continued to struggle down the stretch and finished the season with hugely disappointing offensive numbers. His drop in batting average coincided with a drop in power (just 11 home runs in 465 plate appearances) and a rise in strikeout rate -- both troubling signs.
Without any major injury to explain away the struggles, there is serious cause for concern that Hardy is no longer the outstanding player he seemed to be emerging as in the 2007-08 seasons. With a strikeout rate that has risen in each of the past three years, it could be that scouts are catching up with him and pitchers have started to figure him out. That very fear has drastically reduced the market for Hardy, as evidenced by the fact that the Twins were able to acquire him in return for their own underperforming head case, Carlos Gomez.
At the very least, Hardy does have a few things going in his favor as he moves across the border to Minnesota. For one thing, he's moving to a new league, where opposing pitchers and managers are generally unfamiliar with him. Getting a fresh start, with new teammates as well as new opponents, may help Hardy get back to doing the things that made brought him success in the past. In addition, Hardy will be under far less pressure in a Twins lineup that already has its fill of star players. He entered last season as the No. 5 hitter for Milwaukee; this year, he'll likely open the season as the Twins' No. 7 or No. 8 hitter.
The Twins seem confident that the change of scenery can get Hardy back on track, and if they're right, his powerful right-handed bat would be a boon for an offense currently dominated by lefties. This club isn't accustomed to having heavy hitters at the shortstop position nor in the bottom part of the lineup, and if Hardy can get back to the level he was at in 2008 -- or close to it -- he'll provide a breath of fresh air while adding balance to the batting order.
Even if Hardy isn't able to return to the level of production he enjoyed during the '07 and '08 campaigns -- and as you'll see below I'm fairly conservative in my projections for him this year -- he'll still be a valuable piece for the Twins as long as he continues to cover significant ground at shortstop. Even with the offensive drop-off last season, Hardy posted an 8.8 UZR/150 in the field, ranking him sixth among MLB shortstops and placing him miles in front of Cabrera, whose -13.7 UZR/150 ranked as the worst in baseball outside of the immortal Yuniesky Betancourt. That's a lot of extra balls gobbled up in the middle infield, which can make Hardy an asset even if his stick is mediocre.
Backup up Hardy at short will be Punto, Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla. Should Hardy go down with an injury or continue to decline on offense, I suspect we'd see Punto slide over to short with Brendan Harris taking over at third, although there's a slight chance that prospect Trevor Plouffe could get a look.
As we've seen over the past three installments in this Position Analysis series, the Twins have had a difficult time finding long-term solutions at all of their infield spots outside of first base. With a platoon of backups set to handle third base and a one-year veteran stopgap manning second this year, the 27-year-old Hardy represents the team's best chance at finding a true regular who can hold down his position for multiple years.
A return to his 2008 form would make Hardy one of the American League's finest shortstops and an absolute godsend at the bottom of the lineup. A continuance of his 2009 struggles would render him another in a long line of failed experiments at the shortstop position. I'd settle for something in the middle of those two extremes, which I suspect is what we'll get.
Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Hardy: .260/.315/.405, 16 HR, 50 RBI
2009 Stats: .229/.302/.357, 11 HR, 47 RBI
Will a change of scenery help Hardy rebound from a brutal '09 season?Potential Backups: Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, Alexi Casilla
The Twins entered the 2009 season with Nick Punto as their starting shortstop and finished it with Orlando Cabrera there. If you're wondering how urgently they wanted to upgrade beyond those two, it should be clear from the fact that Bill Smith pulled the trigger on a trade for J.J. Hardy just days after the conclusion of the World Series, while other organizations were still drawing up their offseason plans.
Many fans viewed the addition of Cabrera at the trade deadline last year as an integral part of the team's late surge to the postseason. That makes sense, given the timeline; Cabrera arrived at the end of July with the Twins' record at .500 and by the end of the year he was one of the first players charging onto the field as Carlos Gomez crossed home plate to send the Twins to the playoffs after the team had gone in 34-25 over the final two months of the season with Cabrera as their starting shortstop.
While Cabrera was a relatively productive player in the second half last year, his defense left plenty to be desired and his lack of on-base skills made him a rather poor fit for the No. 2 spot in the lineup. He also turned 35 years old just after the season ended, so retaining him would have, at best, given the Twins yet another passable one-year stopgap at short. Given the team's existing instability at second and third, Smith wanted to go a new direction at short and find a player who could settle in as a long-term solution. He hopes he's found that player in Hardy.
By now, we all know Hardy's story. He came into the league as a 22-year-old, and in his third season turned into a stud, ripping 26 homers and driving in 80 runs while posting a .277/.323/.463 as a 24-year-old shortstop with an excellent glove. That's a tremendous performance -- one that earned Hardy his first All-Star appearance -- and he followed it up with a similarly dazzling effort in 2008, when he batted .283/.343/.478 with 24 home runs and 74 RBI while remaining stellar in the field.
At that point, Hardy was a 26-year-old power-hitting shortstop with excellent defense and several years of team control; he was a player any team in the league would have loved to get their hands on, but one that would require a pretty overwhelming package to pry away from the Brewers.
What a difference a year makes. Last year, Hardy stumbled out of the gates, hitting just .156 over the first month of the season, and after rebounding a bit in May, he slumped through the next couple months and found himself demoted to Triple-A in mid-August (a move that could have had as much to do with delaying his free agent eligibility as getting him out of the Brewers lineup). Hardy returned to Milwaukee in September, but continued to struggle down the stretch and finished the season with hugely disappointing offensive numbers. His drop in batting average coincided with a drop in power (just 11 home runs in 465 plate appearances) and a rise in strikeout rate -- both troubling signs.
Without any major injury to explain away the struggles, there is serious cause for concern that Hardy is no longer the outstanding player he seemed to be emerging as in the 2007-08 seasons. With a strikeout rate that has risen in each of the past three years, it could be that scouts are catching up with him and pitchers have started to figure him out. That very fear has drastically reduced the market for Hardy, as evidenced by the fact that the Twins were able to acquire him in return for their own underperforming head case, Carlos Gomez.
At the very least, Hardy does have a few things going in his favor as he moves across the border to Minnesota. For one thing, he's moving to a new league, where opposing pitchers and managers are generally unfamiliar with him. Getting a fresh start, with new teammates as well as new opponents, may help Hardy get back to doing the things that made brought him success in the past. In addition, Hardy will be under far less pressure in a Twins lineup that already has its fill of star players. He entered last season as the No. 5 hitter for Milwaukee; this year, he'll likely open the season as the Twins' No. 7 or No. 8 hitter.
The Twins seem confident that the change of scenery can get Hardy back on track, and if they're right, his powerful right-handed bat would be a boon for an offense currently dominated by lefties. This club isn't accustomed to having heavy hitters at the shortstop position nor in the bottom part of the lineup, and if Hardy can get back to the level he was at in 2008 -- or close to it -- he'll provide a breath of fresh air while adding balance to the batting order.
Even if Hardy isn't able to return to the level of production he enjoyed during the '07 and '08 campaigns -- and as you'll see below I'm fairly conservative in my projections for him this year -- he'll still be a valuable piece for the Twins as long as he continues to cover significant ground at shortstop. Even with the offensive drop-off last season, Hardy posted an 8.8 UZR/150 in the field, ranking him sixth among MLB shortstops and placing him miles in front of Cabrera, whose -13.7 UZR/150 ranked as the worst in baseball outside of the immortal Yuniesky Betancourt. That's a lot of extra balls gobbled up in the middle infield, which can make Hardy an asset even if his stick is mediocre.
Backup up Hardy at short will be Punto, Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla. Should Hardy go down with an injury or continue to decline on offense, I suspect we'd see Punto slide over to short with Brendan Harris taking over at third, although there's a slight chance that prospect Trevor Plouffe could get a look.
As we've seen over the past three installments in this Position Analysis series, the Twins have had a difficult time finding long-term solutions at all of their infield spots outside of first base. With a platoon of backups set to handle third base and a one-year veteran stopgap manning second this year, the 27-year-old Hardy represents the team's best chance at finding a true regular who can hold down his position for multiple years.
A return to his 2008 form would make Hardy one of the American League's finest shortstops and an absolute godsend at the bottom of the lineup. A continuance of his 2009 struggles would render him another in a long line of failed experiments at the shortstop position. I'd settle for something in the middle of those two extremes, which I suspect is what we'll get.
Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Hardy: .260/.315/.405, 16 HR, 50 RBI
Monday, November 09, 2009
Wasting No Time
Any concerns I had that Bill Smith and the Twins would become complacent in addressing lineup holes this offseason after enjoying a successful overall season offensively in 2009 were quickly assuaged on Friday morning when the club announced that they'd traded Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. As a relatively young shortstop who remains controllable for two more years and who has historically hit for power while playing great defense, Hardy seemed destined to be a hot commodity this winter after Milwaukee had made clear that he'd be available. Smith wasted no time in taking the 27-year-old infielder off the market, completing a swap just as the Yankees were parading through New York City to celebrate their World Series victory -- still only two days old.
That the Twins were interested in Hardy comes as no huge surprise. He's a very logical fit for this team and was in fact the very top player listed among our potential trade targets in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. Here's what I wrote about Hardy there:
Age: 27 (DOB: 8/19/82) | Contract Status: Arb Elig
2009 Stats: .229/.302/.357, 11 HR, 47 RBIWith the free agent market for shortstops looking exceedingly thin and the Twins lacking any legitimate prospects at that position, it appears that the only way to make a meaningful upgrade might be through a trade. Teams generally aren’t willing to part with capable young shortstops that are competent at the dish and in the field, but Hardy may be an exception. He is coming off a dismal offensive year, but he had averaged 25 homers and 77 RBI in the two seasons prior and he’s only 27 years old. Plus, he rates quite well defensively. The Brewers have a major-league ready SS prospect in Alcides Escobar, so they may be willing to deal Hardy even though his value is down. They’d likely seek big-league ready pitching in return.
Here's a more in-depth scouting report on Hardy, courtesy of Kyle Lobner from the Brewers blog Brew Crew Ball (you can also read a take on the trade from that blog here):
The Twins are getting a solid defensive shortstop in Hardy, but his potential contribution as an offensive player is unknown at best. After having two above average seasons in 2007 and 2008, including an All Star appearance in 2007, Hardy's stat line at the plate declined dramatically in 2009, when he posted a .659 OPS, the lowest of his major league career, with a .229/.302/.357 line.
A fair portion of Hardy's struggles last season can probably be attributed to luck: Hardy hit .264 on balls in play last season, down from .280 over the course of his career, and only connected for home runs on 8.3% of his fly balls, down from his 11.2% career total. However, it's hard to blame all of Hardy's struggles on luck: His line drive percentage has dropped in each of the last four seasons, from 19% in 2006 all the way down to 13.9% last season. Hardy had some tough luck early, hitting a lot of line drives at defenders, but never seemed to recover or make the adjustments necessary to regain his stride. He also doesn't take many pitches; his career walk rate is just 8.3% and his career OBP is .323.
Even if Hardy doesn't bounce back offensively, he's a very good defensive shortstop. FanGraphs has him listed as saving 29.7 runs in the field over the last three seasons, good for roughly three wins. There's another interesting note in those numbers, though: Hardy saved 14.8 runs in 2007, 8.2 in 2008 and 6.7 in 2009. While Hardy's 30 runs saved over the last three seasons ranked sixth among major league shortstops during that span, his 6.7 last season was outside the top ten. His UZR/150 over the last three seasons have been 16.7, 8.5 and 8.8.
You might think a guy as defensively gifted as Hardy would have to have some pretty notable athletic ability but you'd be wrong, at least when it comes to running speed. Hardy might be one of major league baseball's slowest shortstops. He frequently looks like he's dragging an anchor behind him on the basepaths, and struggles to take the extra base in situations where a runner with average speed would get in easily. He also only turned 7 ground balls into infield hits in 2009 - that 4.5% was the sixth lowest among shortstops with at least 460 PAs.
Hardy will likely get a raise in arbitration, even if it is a small one, and made $4.65 million in 2009. With that said, the Brewers' decision to demote Hardy to AAA for 20 days in August pushed his arbitration clock back a year, and he'll be under the Twins' control for two more seasons, should they decide to hang onto him.
The Twins are getting a solid defensive shortstop in Hardy, but his potential contribution as an offensive player is unknown at best. After having two above average seasons in 2007 and 2008, including an All Star appearance in 2007, Hardy's stat line at the plate declined dramatically in 2009, when he posted a .659 OPS, the lowest of his major league career, with a .229/.302/.357 line.
A fair portion of Hardy's struggles last season can probably be attributed to luck: Hardy hit .264 on balls in play last season, down from .280 over the course of his career, and only connected for home runs on 8.3% of his fly balls, down from his 11.2% career total. However, it's hard to blame all of Hardy's struggles on luck: His line drive percentage has dropped in each of the last four seasons, from 19% in 2006 all the way down to 13.9% last season. Hardy had some tough luck early, hitting a lot of line drives at defenders, but never seemed to recover or make the adjustments necessary to regain his stride. He also doesn't take many pitches; his career walk rate is just 8.3% and his career OBP is .323.
Even if Hardy doesn't bounce back offensively, he's a very good defensive shortstop. FanGraphs has him listed as saving 29.7 runs in the field over the last three seasons, good for roughly three wins. There's another interesting note in those numbers, though: Hardy saved 14.8 runs in 2007, 8.2 in 2008 and 6.7 in 2009. While Hardy's 30 runs saved over the last three seasons ranked sixth among major league shortstops during that span, his 6.7 last season was outside the top ten. His UZR/150 over the last three seasons have been 16.7, 8.5 and 8.8.
You might think a guy as defensively gifted as Hardy would have to have some pretty notable athletic ability but you'd be wrong, at least when it comes to running speed. Hardy might be one of major league baseball's slowest shortstops. He frequently looks like he's dragging an anchor behind him on the basepaths, and struggles to take the extra base in situations where a runner with average speed would get in easily. He also only turned 7 ground balls into infield hits in 2009 - that 4.5% was the sixth lowest among shortstops with at least 460 PAs.
Hardy will likely get a raise in arbitration, even if it is a small one, and made $4.65 million in 2009. With that said, the Brewers' decision to demote Hardy to AAA for 20 days in August pushed his arbitration clock back a year, and he'll be under the Twins' control for two more seasons, should they decide to hang onto him.
Many were surprised that the pitching-starved Brewers didn't move Hardy in return for a young starter (I had suggested Glen Perkins, whose name may or may not have come up in these discussions depending on who you listen to), but Gomez fills a need as well. With Mike Cameron departing, the Brewers were looking for another strong defensive center fielder, and they'll hope that with regular playing time in 2010 he can start to realize his offensive potential while tracking down everything between left and right.
Reaction to this trade from Twins fans has been overwhelmingly positive, and with good reason. As mentioned in my writeup from the Handbook and in Lobner's report, Hardy had been an 
excellent hitter during the two seasons prior to 2009. It is, however, difficult to ignore the struggles that the shortstop experienced during this past season. There was no major injury to explain away his dismal hitting, and with a strikeout rate that has jumped for three straight seasons, there are some who believe his drop-off last year was no fluke. If he is unable to improve somewhat significantly on his disappointing production in '09, Hardy will hardly be the dramatic upgrade this team is looking for at the bottom of the lineup. But the Twins certainly seem confident that he can rebound, and his power potential is very intriguing for a club that hasn't gotten a .400 slugging percentage from the shortstop position since 2001 and hasn't had a 20-HR hitter there since 1979.
excellent hitter during the two seasons prior to 2009. It is, however, difficult to ignore the struggles that the shortstop experienced during this past season. There was no major injury to explain away his dismal hitting, and with a strikeout rate that has jumped for three straight seasons, there are some who believe his drop-off last year was no fluke. If he is unable to improve somewhat significantly on his disappointing production in '09, Hardy will hardly be the dramatic upgrade this team is looking for at the bottom of the lineup. But the Twins certainly seem confident that he can rebound, and his power potential is very intriguing for a club that hasn't gotten a .400 slugging percentage from the shortstop position since 2001 and hasn't had a 20-HR hitter there since 1979. The loss of Gomez is being downplayed by many who have grown tired of his mental mistakes and offensive ineptitude, but his departure is not insignificant. Twins' pitchers allowed the highest fly ball percentage of any team in the majors this year, and that doesn't figure to change significantly next season. In trading Gomez, the Twins seem to be committing to an outfield alignment of Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer, which represents an incredibly vast downgrade from the Span/Gomez/Cuddyer alignment. Hardy is a better defensive player than anyone the Twins trotted out at shortstop this season, but given the nature of this pitching staff, swapping out Gomez for Hardy will likely lead to an overall drop in defensive proficiency.
Of course, Gomez's slick glove doesn't do much good when he's stuck on the bench, and Gardenhire seemed to have made up his mind on which young outfielder he was going to commit to by the end of the year. In September and October, as the Twins made a furious dash for the playoffs, Young started in the outfield 26 times; Gomez only eight. For better or for worse, Gomez had become the fourth outfielder on this club, and any time you can trade a reserve player for a starting shortstop you've done pretty well for yourself.
Hardy is a nice addition with the potential to provide serious power from the bottom of the lineup (or perhaps the No. 2 spot, if Gardenhire feels so misguidedly inclined) while likely upgrading the team's defense at one of the most important spots on the field. Gomez's departure also seemingly finalizes the club's outfield situation, effectively putting an end to the tired Gomez vs. Young debates. Second base and third base remain uncertain, along with at least one spot in the pitching rotation, so Smith's work is hardly done. But, less than a week into the offseason, he has already gotten a running start on his work for this pivotal offseason. Meanwhile, he has very quickly put to rest any worries that he'd be sitting on his hands as the team prepares to defend its AL Central title in the first year at Target Field.
Smith deserves credit for this bold, aggressive move. Even if it does mean that one of my very favorite Twins players will be suiting up across the border next season.
Friday, November 06, 2009
Twins Trade Gomez for Hardy
Bill Smith made his first big offseason splash today, sending Carlos Gomez to the Brewers in return for shortstop J.J. Hardy, who was a suggested trade acquisition in my offseason blueprint. The deal swaps two players who both saw their value drop with rough seasons in 2009, though surely Hardy has proven more at the major-league level.
My initial reaction is that I'm very sorry to see Gomez go, as he was a personal favorite, and I'm very concerned about the team's outfield defense over the next few seasons. But perhaps the writing was on the wall during a month of September in which the Twins were making a fierce charge and Gomez was seeing virtually no playing time.
I'll have plenty more analysis of the move, and a more thorough breakdown of Hardy, on Monday.
My initial reaction is that I'm very sorry to see Gomez go, as he was a personal favorite, and I'm very concerned about the team's outfield defense over the next few seasons. But perhaps the writing was on the wall during a month of September in which the Twins were making a fierce charge and Gomez was seeing virtually no playing time.
I'll have plenty more analysis of the move, and a more thorough breakdown of Hardy, on Monday.
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