Thursday, December 09, 2010

Hardy Trade Cripples Infield Depth

Over the past two years, we've seen the Twins do nothing but spend, spend, spend. During the 2009 season, they added Orlando Cabrera, Jon Rauch and Carl Pavano, taking on salary in each deal. In the ensuing offseason, they traded for J.J. Hardy, retained Pavano at a relatively high price, signed Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome, and handed Joe Mauer one of the largest contracts in baseball history. Last season, they traded for Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes during the summer, again taking on millions in additional salary. Then, at the outset of this offseason, we saw them outbid all other clubs for the negotiation rights to a premier Japanese player, who they intend to sign.

At some point, this ride had to come to a stop. The Twins are obviously enjoying much more financial freedom with the backing of Target Field, but payroll wasn't going to keep escalating forever. Today, we saw it come to a thundering halt with the trade of J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris to the Orioles for a pair of minor-league pitchers. The move was clearly a flat-out salary dump, and be assured, shaving a few million dollars from the payroll is the only positive thing it accomplishes.

After finding himself demoted not only from the major-league roster but also the 40-man roster during the 2010 season, Brendan Harris was owed $1.75 million next year as a result of a misguided contract handed to him last winter. The team's motives in moving him (while eating only $500,000 of his salary) aren't hard to figure out.

As for Hardy, Bill Smith's claim that "the driving force in trading the shortstop was the desire for a faster lineup" is either intended to mislead or demonstrative of some really poor logic. The Twins ranked fifth in the American League last year in runs scored despite down years from several key players (Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel) and costly injuries to two starters (Hardy and Justin Morneau). What the Twins needed to improve their already solid offensive production was better health; there's little evidence that a lack of speed was all that detrimental. 

I've come to have a lot of respect for Smith's judgment as a general manager, so I'm going to go ahead and assume his statements were only meant to mask a fact that would not be well received by the public: the Twins have hit a financial wall. 

The two pitchers received in the trade, Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey, should not be viewed as locks to make the big-league roster next year by any means. They're preferable to the brand of pitching prospect the Twins have often targeted in past trades, in that they throw hard and can miss some bats. But Jacobson is a 24-year-old who hasn't pitched above Single-A and Hoey, while capable of racking up tons of strikeouts, has issued a staggering 66 walks in 100 innings over the past two years at Double-A and Triple-A (think Juan Morillo). 

At best, these pitchers will be a couple additional question marks to throw into a 2011 bullpen mix that's already full of them. And in giving away a player who -- when healthy -- is a legitimate MLB starting shortstop (anyone who thinks Hardy isn't above average simply hasn't looked at the numbers of his peers), the Twins are apparently committing to a pair of question marks in the middle infield. There's no telling how the numbers of Tsuyoshi Nishioka, slated to start at second, will translate to the States. And we have little reason to believe that Casilla is suited to start at shortstop in the major leagues. He rates terribly at the position defensively, has never played 100 games in a big-league season and holds a .249/.306/.327 career hitting line in the majors. 

If the Twins couldn't afford to pay Hardy around $6 million next year, then they couldn't afford it. But it didn't have to be that way. Due to past mistakes, they're locked into paying Cuddyer $10.5 million and Capps $7 million or more. While I like the sentiment behind signing Nishioka, I don't like the idea of replacing an established commodity in Hardy with an unknown for the sake of saving a few million bucks. And if they go out and spend a bunch of money on re-signing Pavano, which they are reportedly making a "strong push" to do, this move looks dramatically worse. It means that the Twins had the money to retain Hardy, and that they're comfortable bringing back a pitch-to-contact, ground ball pitcher while removing two Gold Glove caliber defenders from their infield.

You pay for reliability. It's why the Yankees are in the playoffs every single year. Now, while their payroll is far from embarrassing, the Twins find themselves up against some financial limitations, due to escalating salaries and misallocation of funds. As a result, they're going to head into the 2011 season with several serious question marks that could potentially contribute to the team's demise.

In my opinion, the chances of either Casilla or Nishioka (or both) becoming liabilities as everyday players are much greater than the chances of either pitcher received in this trade making the team's bullpen significantly better next year. Perhaps down the line this deal will look better than it does right now, but as things stand this is probably the most disappointed I've been with any move during Smith's tenure as GM.

The Twins may be a large-market team in name at this point, but their inability to retain Hardy and carry some quality infield depth into the 2011 season is what differentiates them from the true big spenders out east, and it's the exact type of thing that will keep them from ever being able to surpass the Yankees in team talent.

78 comments:

Dave said...

This move marks the shift from small budget overachievers to big budget underachieving. Why do I feel like we are only a year or two away from a blockbuster signing of the calibre of Beltre in Seattle or Zito in SF?

Peter NL said...

Vintage Nick! Not a word misput.

Anonymous said...

What is with all the Hardy-love from Twins bloggers? Just because of some silly Zone Rating? Well, I can tell you that Casilla has more range than Hardy. I figured that out by watching the games. No calculations required. This was a nice trade by the Twins.

Polish Sausage said...

"This was a nice trade by the Twins."

Wow. I cannot respond to that. Wow. All I will say is, if you "watch the games" and come away with the belief that Casilla is better defensively than Hardy, then I can offer no help for you. None. That's the thing about Hardy, the "advanced stats" confirm what the eyes see.

I wasn't blown away with Hardy either, but Nick is 100% right when he says "look at the other AL SSs." Even playing only 100 games outperformed the vast majority of AL SSs in nearly every category, "advanced" or otherwise. Shortstop is just a very difficult position to solidify.

For all the salary dump talk, I can't for the life of me fathom why the team would spend $5 mil just to talk to a Japanese guy if they were looking to cut payroll. It makes no sense.

Matthew Whipps said...

Is it just me or did this feel rushed? I can't explain it but this whole ordeal felt as if the Twins couldn't get rid of Hardy fast enough. Which is very surprising considering it's not as if we got some sort of great return on the trade.

I'm right there with you Nick, I think this was a salary dump plain and simple.

Anonymous said...

Hardy is the most over-rated player in the history of this franchise.

Overpaid slightly above average SS, no real loss there.

Anonymous said...

"Hardy is the most over-rated player in the history of this franchise."

I'll go with Cuddyer as the most overrated.

Bill said...

Why do I feel like we are only a year or two away from a blockbuster signing of the calibre of Beltre in Seattle or Zito in SF?
Off-topic, but Beltre's contract in Seattle wasn't bad at all. You could've named Wells, Rios, Werth, Brown, A-Rod (the second time)...Beltre wasn't the steal of the century or anything, but he gave them more than their money's worth when you factor in his defense.

Well, I can tell you that Casilla has more range than Hardy. I figured that out by watching the games. No calculations required.
Wow. Now, I don't believe that watching the players really tells you anything -- especially on TV, so much is in the first step -- but this is an instance in which Hardy is so much better defensively than Casilla that I think it is pretty clear just by watching. If you watch them and think otherwise, I have to assume that you're just really impressed when a player dives for a ball (nevermind if it's a ball that a competent 2B would've gotten to standing up).

Hardy is the most over-rated player in the history of this franchise.
Overpaid slightly above average SS, no real loss there.

This is hilarious, because I don't think anybody believes he's anything more than a slightly above average SS. But "slightly above average" has value -- and in this market, the value is a lot higher than $7 million (and TONS higher than two minor league relief pitchers). He's an underpaid slightly above average SS, and it's a pretty big loss because in baseball you actually need a shortstop, and right now the Twins don't have one.

Twins Focus Blog said...

The thing that really sucks about the lack of infield depth now is that we are only one injury away from having to watch Matt Tolbert fill in at either 2B or SS at some point in the year. That is if the Twins don't bring back LNP. You know if that happens then Gardy will have "Nicky" in a "competition" with Nishioka and Casilla in Spring Training and then hand the job over to him. I am with Nick, the reason I hate this salary dump (not calling it a trade) is because of the lack of depth we have in our IF again. It was a problem two years ago, got fixed last year and then got blown up this offseason. The Twins were fine losing either Hardy or Hudson but not both.

VODKADAVEMOTHERFUCKER said...

I'd like to see them bring in DeRosa now, who is not only cheaper then Hardy but a better hitter by far, an equal fielder and a better clubhouse leader.

Anonymous said...

I don't believe that watching the players really tells you anything -- especially on TV

Where do you think the data comes from for the metrics?

Chris Dunn said...

I have to chime in here. I was, like most, ready to have a heartattack when I heard of this trade, but I won't jump to conclusions, just yet. Last year we waited until basically spring training to sign O-Dog and he filled in great. I am hoping that maybe the Twins will catch a "sleeper" like this. But middle infield is not my concern. We should be more concerned about middle relief. Because the two guys we got back in this trade ain't cutting it. And with no guarantee of Crain coming back, all I can say is here we go. And Pavano resigning is a terrible move. He pitches to contact and, well, we just let our gold glovers go. Smith, you're killing me, softly.

Matt said...

Haha, yeah, UZR is calcualted by watching film (TV). Whoever said otherwise hopefully has a refute that one?

The key word is "depth." Last year when Hardy goes down, you take a hit by putting in the backup. Now you've got to start the backup. Unless there's some grand plan coming, or Nishi really is the real deal, we're in trouble this year up the middle, no doubt.

Bill said...

Where do you think the data comes from for the metrics?

If you're not watching every play made by every player in the league and keeping detailed records of every single play made or not made by every one of them, I don't believe that watching really tells you anything about defense.

Anonymous said...

If you're not watching every play made by every player in the league and keeping detailed records of every single play made or not made by every one of them, I don't believe that watching really tells you anything about defense.

hmmm... what?

Anonymous said...

a lot of these negative comments remind me of when we traded away Perzinski....how'd that work out again??

Bill said...

That's how UZR and +/-, etc. are created. There's a big difference between (a) watching Casilla make the occasional (very delayed) step-and-a-dive and thinking he's a good defender (which is what the first Anonymous above apparently does) and (b) tracking every play in the major leagues and comparing the types and locations of balls they all get or don't get to (which is how those metrics are created).

I'd think that that would be pretty self-evident, but apparently not to at least one Anonymous and Matt.

Matt said...

My comment was "watching" and that was all.
I get what UZR is and didn't EVER remark that Casilla was a better defender.
Someone had said that you get nothing from watching them play. That made no literal sense, now did it? You have to watch them play to make ratings.

But all that aside, depth took a major hit. There likely aren't any "O-Dawgs" that are coming in to save the day last minute again.

Enjoy the season.

Anonymous said...

Has anybody on this entire page mentioned that we're going to sign Tsuyoshi Nishioka? This is a great move!

Anonymous said...

agreed Anonymous....and we will have some payroll space it seems....we bringing on an Ace??

Anonymous said...

I like the DeRosa idea, he has always been impressive. But how can Nick call Brendan Harris a Gold-Glove caliber infielder, give me a break, that kid doesn't deserve to be in the Major's.

Nick N. said...

Well, I can tell you that Casilla has more range than Hardy. I figured that out by watching the games. No calculations required.

Oh, thank goodness.

But how can Nick call Brendan Harris a Gold-Glove caliber infielder, give me a break, that kid doesn't deserve to be in the Major's.

I was referring to Hudson.

a lot of these negative comments remind me of when we traded away Perzinski....how'd that work out again??

Yes, I'm sure Jacobson and Hoey are the second comings of Nathan and Liriano.

Anonymous said...

Everyone feels like we got robbed. The Thing is WE DID! I agree with you Nick, you have great insight on how we gave up to much for too little. I feel that we have lost the only crutch if one of these two fail. WOW we have Plouff or Hughes, but I wouldn't trust either one of those to take over second or SS, all I can say is God Help Us!

Anonymous said...

When 20% of the salary goes to a single player, the team must be able to get great value from its remaining players to be competitive. Cuddyer, while a great clubhouse guy, an all-around stand up guy, and a versatile (if limited) fielder, is not worth $10 to a team with a $110million payroll. Kubel's $5m can be justified if he is a platoon DH/sometime LF who gets 400ABs against RHPs. Unfortunately, that is not is what is expected of Kubel.

When Mauer signed the 7yr contract, he condemned the Twins to 7yrs of mediocrity, with 2 to 3 playoff appearances, none advancing beyond the first round. Morneau won't be affordable--unless $45-50 is going to be locked into two players. I don't follow the minors closely, but I'm not seeing any who could provide replacement level production at 1B.

Under Smith, the quality of the Twins' farm system has been in steady decline. They've been somewhat aggressive--witness Sano or the Twins' investment in Australian prospects--but aren't developing top tier prospects.

Even the pitching could be acceptable if the Sloweys and Bakers of the world had spines--Radke did not have as good of "stuff" as either Baker or Slowey, but he hit his spots and was aggressive and did not back down. Remember the 2002 ALDS against Oakland? Thanks to some miserable fielding behind him, Radke was down 4-0 after one. He didn't back down. Can anyone imagine Baker or Slowey in that situation?

We'll find ourselves in third in 2011. By 2013 the Twins will be competitive again--and might win one of the two or three division championships that will happen during the length of Mauer's deal.

On a side note: does anyone else miss the "soul patrol" of Lawton, Jones, and Hunter?

Anonymous said...

Look for Tsuyoshi Nishioka to be signed within a couple days. Smith wouldn't be reckless enough to dump two players like that without knowing someone good was on their way.

Nick N. said...

Oh there's no doubt that Nishioka will be signed.

USAFChief said...

If you're not watching every play made by every player in the league and keeping detailed records of every single play made or not made by every one of them, I don't believe that watching really tells you anything about defense.

The guys working for BIS don't 'watch every play made by every player' either. The job is shared by many individuals, and none of them see more than a fraction of the total.

They also don't see 'every play' in total. They see only the plays available for review, which doesn't include any play not captured on the original telecast, and in virtually EVERY case does not take positioning into account, because the folks doing the reviewing have no opportunity to note position prior to balls being put into play. They also don't capture all 'shifting' data, because again, often the TV broadcast doesn't show defensive alignment prior to every pitch.

I have a hard time understanding why smart people pay any attention to defensive metrics. My guess is, those smart people haven't done any research into the process, or any research into the formulas.

The folks in the business of selling those metrics hope you never do, I bet.

Anonymous said...

I was anxious to learn which, Hardy or Hudson, would be kept.

I was nervous to learn that the Twins had gone overseas to talk to Nishioka.

I'm frightened that we now face starting the season with no known stability in the infield.

I'm TERRIFIED that the door has been opened for Punto to return to the team!

I'm not sure about anything currently available to the Twins from within, and I dont want to see another "Adam Everett type" signed at the last minute.

Bill said...

The guys working for BIS don't 'watch every play made by every player' either.
They also don't individually make judgments about players' defensive abilities (well, I mean, what they do on their own time is none of my business, but that's not what their watching is intended to produce). This is a total non sequitur.

I have a hard time understanding why smart people pay any attention to defensive metrics. My guess is, those smart people haven't done any research into the process, or any research into the formulas.
Your guesses are very incorrect. The simple answer is that they're better than anything else out there. You can either (a) use the defensive metrics to determine how players are performing defensively, recognizing that they might mislead you now and then, or (b) just have no idea at all who's a good defender and who isn't, outside of a handful of very extreme cases. Those are the only two options.
And people who talk like this seriously overstate the problems with defensive metrics. Considering how new the field is, how many different ones there are now and how many different ways they're figured, there's a remarkable amount of agreement among them. The mistake is trusting any one of them exclusively, particularly for a sample as small as a season. Taken together, they give you a pretty good picture of what's going on (or at any rate, better than anything else you've got).

Anonymous said...

Not only was it a salary dump with Harris, but it was a good move to get Hardy out of our lineup. He is too good to accept the duty as a role player, but he did not fit in well with our lineup. He had poor offensive production and was injury prone. I am not saying Nishioka (if we sign him) will be a saving grace, but it will not be hard to match the offensive numbers Hardy put up. I think in the long run, regardless of whether or not these pitching prospects work out, it will help us to go a different direction from Hardy.

USAFChief said...

The simple answer is that they're better than anything else out there.

The simple answer is that is your opinion. It is not fact.

I will go so far as to say your opinion could actually could be true.

It also could be completely false.

I don't know. Neither do you. Neither do the the people who developed the multiple different defensive metrics.

How could they know? There is no objective way to evaluate them. None. Zero. Zilch.

Marv said...

Nicely written article. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

I couldn't disagree more. The Twins lost the small ball aspect of there game last year and it cost them. Every talks about the pitching, which was not good by any means, but there problem in the playoffs was scoring runs. The big HR never happened and the runs never came. This moves allows them to insert more speed in the lineup with Mr. Japan and Casilla. Hardy has had two injury plagued seasons in a row and will continue to break down. It's the right time to dump him. The power arms we aquired will also allow us to trade somebody in the bullpen for starting help.

Anonymous said...

It's hard to see this move as anything else but dramatically lacking ambition. Casilla has had a few stabs at the major league level now and has failed to consistently impress in any area. My hunch would be Hardy would have put up stronger numbers next year after a year of integration into the Twins system.

Does anyone else feel like one of THE significant stumbling blocks that will prevent the Twins making real strides in the postseason is lacking a GREAT rotation. Liriano is awesome and hopefully only going to reach greater heights next year, even if Pavano re-signs can we really expect another 17 win, 7 complete game season? I feel like the Twins rotational mediocrity is a really big issue. I'm curious to see if Kyle Gibson will pitch well enough to get a shot at the majors next year.

Overall the trade seems frustrating, the idea of committing to Casilla for a whole year at second makes me apprehensive but isn't it great that Brendan Harris is no longer a Twin?!

Nick N. said...

The Twins lost the small ball aspect of there game last year and it cost them. Every talks about the pitching, which was not good by any means, but there problem in the playoffs was scoring runs

The Twins tried winning in the playoffs with "small ball" for a decade before this year, how'd that work out? Teams that win in the playoffs usually do so with power hitting and power pitching; the Twins are abandoning their new direction far too quickly.

Anonymous said...

I think the Twins did get robbed if this wasn't a pure salary dump move. I worked with the Orioles minor leagues last year and know the players involved. The move leaves the twins very short in the middle INF and there were better options to pick from in the orioles system. Jacobson does have some upside tho. I would have liked to see more than 2 players exchanged for what was given up though. Trade was probably a little rushed like someone else mentioned.

CA said...

In general, I've mostly been impressed with the Twins front office. Last year's offseason was fantastic; they were able to retain Pavano, extend Mauer, and get Thome and Hudson.

But then there are moves like this one that are totally baffling. The Harris contract was a complete head-scratcher to begin with. Now, in part to dump some of that contract, they trade away a starting shortstop for questionable relievers. That's bad enough, but what makes it more crazy is that if they wanted to save money, why are they tendering contracts to expensive relievers? Why are they bidding for Japanese players? Why not retain the proven SS they already had instead? It's strange that a front office so astute in some circumstances can be so frustrating in others.

Anonymous said...

I don't get the love affair with Hardy. He had 6 HR, 38 RBI, and hit .268 with 1 SB. He missed 61 games with injuries. This was coming off his 2009 season in which he hit .229 and was demoted to the minors! Did I mention his clutch postseason hitting in which he batted .100 (1 for 10). Every SS in the division (Betancourt, Ramirez, Peralta, and Cabrera) had better stats. Twins fans often tend to overrate their players and Hardy is a good example of that. If Smith could have gotten more for him he would have. I wish him a great season in Baltimore but I believe the Orioles will be as disappointed as a lot of Brewers and Twins fans were the last 2 seasons.

Ed Bast said...

To me this deal just illustrates the overriding philosophy of this organization to always play for next year and three years down the road and five years down the road and never play for this year. As a small-market team this is admirable - with those sort of budget contraints it's difficult to be competitive year in and year out, and the Twins for the 00s deserve credit for that approach.

However, they are not a small market team any more. They do not have the same payroll constraints. They have commited nearly $50 mil to 3 players: Mauer, Morneau, Nathan. Morneau's contract is up in a couple years; with his concussions who knows how long his career will last. Nathan is in the twilight of his career. Mauer is in his prime, but how many catcher's careers are derailed due to injury?

Point is, this team has a window for success, and it's closing. The team has spent so much time developing these players and so much money to keep them here - yet they refuse to "go all in" while they have the chance. They made strides last offseason, but when they needed help at the deadline last year, they rushed to dump their top trading chip in a move Bill Smith said wouldn't have been made if Capps didn't have the 2011 option in his deal. It was a move made not for the current season (which again ended in failure) but for the next one.

Now we see the Twins get rid of an above-average player at a premium position to bring in an unknown player who will be cheaper over the long haul. It's a move for 2012 and 2013; certainly it's a move that makes the 2011 team worse. Teams serious about winning in the postseason - and about capitilizing on a very talented and expensive roster - simply do not make moves to blatantly downgrade the club. It doesn't happen. The Twins love to bemoan the Big Bad Yankees, and it seems to be conventional wisdom that we will never be able to compete with them. You know what, Bill Smith? The Yankees would never make a move like this. You did this to yourself. You just made the team less competitive, and less likely to beat the Big Bad Yankees if we get them again in the playoffs. No one forced the club to make this move.

I don't expect the club to wheel and deal year in and year out now that we are no longer a small market team. I don't think it's a lot to ask, though, for the team to demonstrate a willingness to go all in while a lot of the pieces are in place.

Otherwise the club is going to be on an eternal 5-year plan. The division is getting better; the club can't count on skating through the Central year in and year out.

My fear is that the lean years are coming - look at our minor league system, you talk about a bare cupboard - and they'll start before anyone sees it coming. Hell, I don't think the Twins are favorites in the division on paper right now. These crippling contracts and bad drafts will lead us into a period of extended mediocrity, and all us fans will be able to do is look back on this critical period in the organization's history and wonder what could have been - oh, we were THIS close....

Anonymous said...

The Hardy trade seems rushed? Perhaps Tsuyoshi Nishioka was reluctant to sign while Hardy was around. PT baby!

Polish Sausage said...

Billy Smith lie of the day:

"I just hope we get another chance to play the Yankees in the first round next year."

Really, Bill? cuz last year the yanks exposed your susceptibility to LH pitching, and also your lack of front end starting pitching, and all you've done this offseason to address those things is focus on making your middle infield worse and your rochester bullpen better.

What could possibly make him think a worse twins team will beat a better yankees team?

This man is running the team folks.

Anonymous said...

Really? The loss of J.J. Hardy is what brought the recent trend of acquisitions to a thundering halt. Just another person thinking we received the J.J. Hardy from 2008.

Matt said...

We could be the 2nd coming of the Seattle Mariners.

Crap.

Anonymous said...

"There is little evidence that lack of speed was all that detrimental" Nick, you are kidding right. The Twins ranked 12th in the AL in stolen bases and 25th when you include the NL teams. In 3 games against the Yanks the Twins scored 6 runs with 0 stolen bases. In winning the ALCS the Rangers stole 9 bases against the Yanks in 6 games. Andrus had 4, Hamilton 3, and Kinsler 2. The Yanks had trouble all year throwing out baserunners but without team speed the Twins were unable to take advantage. I welcome a little more speed on the basepaths.

Bill said...

Well you have to get on base to steal, Anon. Gardy's Twins don't hit in the playoffs. And Tampa Bay ran more than any team I've ever seen, and boy did it play dividends for them in the playoffs.

Nick N. said...

Ed, great comment.

Just another person thinking we received the J.J. Hardy from 2008.

Hardy was an above-average shortstop in 2010. That's a fact, not an opinion or an exaggeration. They're swapping him out for a guy who will in all likelihood be a below-average shortstop. Unless a lot of things break right, this move is going to make the team worse in 2011.

Nick, you are kidding right. The Twins ranked 12th in the AL in stolen bases and 25th when you include the NL teams

You know who ranked dead last in MLB in stolen bases? Your World Champion San Francisco Giants.

Anonymous said...

Billy Smith lie of the day:

"I just hope we get another chance to play the Yankees in the first round next year."


That would mean the Twins make the playoffs. I hope so too.

Anonymous said...

I think it's clear that the objective this off-season is to clear some salary space which is needed in light of Mauer's new contract. I liked Hardy's defense a lot and think he was easily the most solid SS since Greg Gagne. Let's face it this org. does not have a very good history in producing solid players at this position and I don't see any way this move is not going to hurt them in the short term. Long term - who knows - maybe the guy from Japan is the answer because it sure doesn't seem like Casilla is.

Josh said...

This feels like a Gardy move to me. Gardy didn't like Hardy, didn't want that style of SS, so he got Billy Smith to dump him so he could get back to his kind of middle INF: speedy, no power utility guys.

I think 2010 AL Manager of the Year Ron Gardenhire is flexing his muscles in the organization a little. Good luck stopping him now that he has the award to go along with the fawning media attention. He weaknesses as a manager (dislike of rookies, refusal to acknowledge platoon splits, playing favorites with certain players) will be magnified if he gets total control of the roster.

This isn't a good trade unless Jacobson is actually a real prospect (jury is out, but it doesn't look too good) and Hoey rediscovers his command and become the power arm in the bullpen the team needs (maybe? hard to say). Hardy, when healthy, was well-above average at SS which is a position that it's hard to find average at. His contract was reasonable. Now we're left with question marks at 2B & SS, little depth, and no power.

The only good thing to come out of this is dumping Harris, who has clearly failed.

Anonymous said...

"I'll go with Cuddyer as the most overrated. "

I'll go with Kubel, by a mile!

And please don't conclude that the Twins have hit a "financial wall" on December 10. Demonstrate some patience and wait til the opener, at least.

Anonymous said...

What a bunch of worry worts. They must have liked what they saw in the Orioles pitchers they got and Rick A will work with them. I remember when we traded the solid AJ Pierzinski to SFran, everyone bemoaned the trade. Well Nathan and Liriano were steals. Lets see how this shakes out.

Orioles won world championships with Mark Belanger at SS. Hardy was better (when he played) than Alexi, but not by a large margin. So we lose a little at SS and get two hard throwers with PO. They will get a look as middle relievers this spring. I reserve judgment.

On the plus side, could be that Casilla has figured it out. I think that Casilla came on strong at the end of last year, like Delmon Young did in 2009.

We move Alexi to 9th in the batting order, so speed ahead of Span the second time thru and then put Nishi at 2.

Cuddy's contrcat is a bit rich but he is our guy and he sacrificed for the team last year and in others. So he is a keeper.

I like our team but a shake up in the pen is about due.

I would have kept Fuentes

Anonymous said...

Saying that they should have kept Hardy and made a lower offer on or just let Pavano go is just plain stupid.

Hardy is injury prone and his best years are behind him. He IS slow and Casilla has more range.

The Twins might not have made the playoffs without Pavano eating up innings and pitching as well as he did.

The Twins should have never even completed the trade for Hardy. They should have tried to resign Orlando Cabrera while they had the chance.

Anonymous said...

Hardy is by no means a top-tier SS. His #s are easily replaceable. If you're going to spend the money, spend it on Pavano. I personally think Casilla will pleasantly surprise a lot of people here. Now, Nish, I can't vouch for. The Pohlads need to increase payroll to $125 million in 2011 and suck it up until Nathan and Cuddy are off the books.

Bill said...

Hardy's numbers are certainly not easily replaceable, but that really doesn't matter when the Twins have no means of replacing them, and no plans to. If they were going to replace his production at short, it would cost them more than what it would've cost him just to keep Hardy himself.

3 Toed Sloth said...

Sign Pavano and Thome. Trade Baker & Slowey, Slama and Angel Morales or another top level OF (not Revere or Hicks) for Greinke. This saves a lot of money plus opens up a spot for Thome full time. Then you have this for a roster.

Line-up:
1. Span CF
2. Nishioka 2B
3. Mauer C
4. Morneau 1B
5. Young RF
6. Thome/Kubel DH
7. Cuddyer LF
8. Valencia 3B
9. Casilla SS

Starters:
1. Greinke
2. Liriano
3. Pavano
4. Duensing
5. Blackburn

Relief:
Mijares
Hoey
Neshek
Ueagth(?) (guy released by Boston)
Crain
Capps
Nathan

Bench:
Butera
Kubel/Thome
Repko
Tolbert
Hughes

CA said...

Orioles won world championships with Mark Belanger at SS

Mark Belanger was hardly dragging the O's down; he was one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all time. Having a good defender at that spot is a big plus, and ought to be far more important to a contending team than middle relief. Even if Hoey or Jacobson turns into a serviceable reliever in 2012 or 2013, it isn't worth exchanging Hardy for Casilla at short for 2011.

Anonymous said...

CA, I'd love to be in your fantasy league.

The difference in shortstops is miniscule. There is no Ripkon, Ozzie or Larkin around. Ramirez is close, but most are a dime a dozen.

Pitchers rule.
Pitching is half the game

Bill said...

...and there's the post that finally makes me unsubscribe from this thread. "Ripkon"?

See, the thing is, this isn't fantasy baseball, which means there are things that matter besides BA/R/HR/RBI/SB. And for that reason, the difference between these two particular shortstops (and I have a hard time even calling Casilla a "shortstop") is pretty damn big.

Anonymous said...

Hardy was the second slowest guy on the team last year. Jose Mijares could have ran the bases better than Hardy, although he probably would have broke his hand into third as well, but i digress. Hardy's defense was above average but he was always hurt. Also, WHY IS NO ONE BRINGING UP TARGET FIELD. We have to change the way we do business because the field gives up no homeruns. Getting yoshi and cassila playing more may give us a better chance of getting back to twins baseball. Everyone says we need power and an ace to win in the playoffs. So why don't we go out and sign Cliff Lee for 10 years at 30 mil a year. Lets go out and get Beltre and sign him for 7 at 20 per. You guys are ridiculous, you make me not want to be a twins fan because you are so dull. We may have a new stadium but we are still in the minnesota with our games being broadcast on fox sports north. We don't have a wgn or yes network. We may have 1/3 the resources teams in the east and west do, so I would say that we do pretty good with the resources we get. Bill Smith is doing ok and since when did our farm system become the worst in baseball, last time i checked we still have some all-stars down there...and Sano, mark my words, hall of famer. So why don't you guys go watch a white sox game in the ghetto and quit your whining about bad trades and how terrible the twins are...also good trade to get rid of hardy, sell when he's high, before teams figure out his a slow dud...GO TWINS

Anonymous said...

Losing Hardy makes sense. It saves money and no matter what you paid him, you only got 2/3 of a season outta him anyway.
Bill, chill out. If you wanna go, then go. Nobody will miss ya.

Anonymous said...

Whats being overlooked is Hardy worth 6m? thats up to everyones opinion... and since we didnt think he was, we got casilla making his I believe third stint at starting. Hopefully it works out... I like him...When he has been in the lineup he's come up with the clutchest hits for us and won games, I like the way he handles himself at the plate taking pitches. And one year under a gold glover hudson cant hurt you can it? Bottom line imo is you wont be able to have a great enough team with hardy in it taking in that salary to beat out teams that have ridicioulsy better middle infielders(pedroia,cano,jeter,andrus) anyways. and I greatly hate it when we are considered to have a salary that keeps getting higher and higher and is remarked as getting up their with the upper market teams. I know its hard to do with Mauer getting his DUE share but its still would be nice to look at the Twins as a middle market team with great prospects rather than signing decent free agents every year. all we need to do to be great year in and year out is when a Johan Santana comes by next time we need to keep him by all means

Haplo said...

@ WHY IS NO ONE BRINGING UP TARGET FIELD

The only person making sense here tonight.

Vintage Nick.

Nick N. said...

Hardy's defense was above average but he was always hurt. Also, WHY IS NO ONE BRINGING UP TARGET FIELD. We have to change the way we do business because the field gives up no homeruns.

The Twins had the best home record in the majors last season. There's no merit to your suggestion that they weren't well built to win in that stadium.

Dave said...

This deal isn't frustrating merely because we dumped salary and Hardy was caught in the crossfire. Its frustrating because we could have dumped salary elsewhere. Capps contract is worth more and he is worth less to the team. Its one thing to say that the Twins didn't feel Hardy was worth his contract, but why dump it when there are worse offenders around?

Anonymous said...

YOU NEED A CLOSER. A good closer saves like 40 games. I don't think Hardy figured prominently in more than a couple dozen, at most. So saying Hardy is more important than Capps defies logic and reason. We got other guys that can play SS, but not other closers.

Anonymous said...

Before passing judgement on this trade lets see if the Twins make any further moves to address the SS position.

USAFChief said...

All these various guys named 'anonymous.' Hard to figure who's who.

Although...the anonymous at 10:38PM, 12:22AM, and 7:33PM towards the end of the comments has to be VodkaDave, no? ;-)

Dave said...

A closer pitches 3 outs in limited situations. Any pitcher can presumably pitch for three outs. You can convert anyone to closer as it is an artificial title. That includes starters, like, oh, Nathan.

SS plays a middle infield position where you need lateral range and a strong yet accurate arm. You can't convert just anyone to play it.

Anonymous said...

The Twins tried winning in the playoffs with "small ball" for a decade before this year, how'd that work out?

Horrible arguement. Only one team wins the world series. That can't be your standard for a successful season.

Anonymous said...

Dave, now you are being absurd.

Not just "anyone" can be a closer. You need a tough mentality and a gunslinger steadiness. Ask the Yankees (and everyone they beat) if just anyone could take Rivera's place. That is just ridiculous. Almost no pitcher can handle the added pressure of being called in with a game on the line every single appearance.

Closer is one of the most important spots on a team and that is why they are paid so well. No team seriously contends without a solid closer, but the Twins have won year in and year out with several different players manning the shortstop position, including Guzman, Bartlett, Everett, Punto, Cabrera, Hardy, Casilla, Tolbert, Harris.

Capps has a good year last year. We need a solid closer, so when they signed him they liked the overlap of his being at least a two season solution since Nathan may not be back to his old self until next year, if ever.

And one of the reasons why there are so many anonymous postings is that many don't like the hassle of creating an account just to weigh in.

Nick N. said...

Not just "anyone" can be a closer. You need a tough mentality and a gunslinger steadiness. Ask the Yankees (and everyone they beat) if just anyone could take Rivera's place. That is just ridiculous.

I love how when people are trying to exaggerate the importance of certain roles they will always point to the very best in the game as the standard.

"Liriano?? He's not an ace! An ace is someone like Roy Halladay!"

"You think anyone can be a closer?! Look how good Mariano Rivera is!"

The truth is that the average "ace" (or No. 1 pitcher) is someone like Liriano and the average closer is someone like Capps (or Crain, or Guerrier).

And one of the reasons why there are so many anonymous postings is that many don't like the hassle of creating an account just to weigh in.

You don't even have to sign into an account. You can just click the "Name/URL" option and type in a name (or nickname). Simple as that.

Anonymous said...

Nick, don't make me call the context police. There was nothing even said about Frankie or even starters generally. You came in from the left field bullpen bro.

Dave said basically anyone can be a closer. Wrong!!! Teams look for stud closers because they are crucial. He was making a point that a SS is more important than a closer. You agree with that proposition? Basically no general manager or manager does, I assure you.

When the Twins lost Nathan last spring all of baseball wrote us off. When we lost Hardy, we plugged someone else in. We will plug someone else in for Hardy this year and it will be fine.

Dave said...

I was prepared to give a long dissertation on why closers are the most overvalued "position" in baseball, but I have learned over time that posts by Anon that seem too crazy to be real usually are made to aggravate. And if they are genuine, the poster is as crazy as their post and not worth arguing with. All I will say is this; Yes, baseball folks at large still think closers are crucial. They are wrong.

Ed Bast said...

The always great Joe Posnanski has a great article on closers and middle relievers. The gist of it is that currently teams leading going into the 9th win 95 percent of the time, and this percentage hasn't changed much (up or down) since the 50s - i.e. before the "closer" position was created.

Fact is, the average conversion rate for MLB closers is 85%. Good ones are 90-95%. Capps and Rauch combined to convert at right around the average, maybe 1 or 2 more blown saves than a typical Nathan season. The club only lost 1 of the blown save games, I believe, and most of us haven't forgotten the last save opportunity Nathan had. The fact of the matter is the Nathan injury had ZERO impact on the 2010 Twins. And the decision to allocate $20 million to "closers" on the 2011 roster (and $800k for shortstops) is horribly misguided.

Anonymous said...

In a close 5-4 game, going into the last inning with the other team's 3-4-5 hitters coming up, you would rather have a guy like Capps in there over a long reliever, a guy that is hired to mop up in a blow out, ala Perkins or Mijares.

Reardan, Peroniski, Senor Smoke, Nathan, these guys made SURE we won.

Closers are important. For every two saves, is a game you coulda lost. They are the difference between winning the division and 500 ball.

I have come in with bases loaded, no outs. I picked the runner off third. Then I threw one pitch, double play. End of inning.

I know its not relevant. I just like telling that story.

(Hope you got a laugh)

Tom said...

Nick, Thanks for replying to those of us who post on your blogs. Love the back and forth. Your blog is always a must read. Happy Holidays and keep up the great work!

Bryz said...

I think the "anyone can be a closer" comment is being misinterpreted. Some (or maybe one of you, I wasn't keeping track of aliases) seem to take this to mean that your typical middle reliever can just be thrown into the 9th inning and he'll succeed. Like some of you are arguing, this isn't necessarily true, but remember that Joe Nathan was first a starting pitcher and then had just barely a full season as a reliever under his belt before the Twins turned him into their closer.

Also, Nick is right when he said that the average closer is around the level of Matt Capps. Don't forget that there are guys such as Alfredo Simon (Orioles) and Matt Lindstrom (Astros) that received plenty of save opportunities even though their ERAs were rather pedestrian. Not all closers put up sub-3 ERAs.

By the way, for those of you that still believe we needed a proven closer in Capps, then what would have been wrong with non-tendering him and then signing an equally talented reliever such as Grant Balfour for $4 million, thus saving a couple million dollars?

cy1time said...

Could it be that Nathan is looking so good that the Twins have a good idea that he's the closer and Capps in the 8th inning guy? If that's the back end of the pen, the front end just needs to be decent. If you assume Nathan is a lock to return to form, I think there's enough there that we we're already pretty close to being decent.