The Twins have often been criticized in recent years for the paltry returns they've gotten back when trading away players. We've seen Wilson Ramos, J.J. Hardy, Delmon Young and others flipped for questionable returns, only to quickly boost their value elsewhere. Jose Mijares was non-tendered earlier this offseason because the Twins didn't want to pay him $750,000 through arbitration, and he went on to immediately sign with the Royals for $950,000.
In my mind, the Twins front office has shown a persistent weakness in assessing the value of its own talent.
Kevin Slowey appears to be the latest example. Coming off the worst season of his pro career, Slowey was dealt to the Rockies back in December for relief prospect Daniel Turpen. Six weeks later, Colorado turned around and sent Slowey back to the AL Central, trading him to the Indians on Friday for another relief prospect, Zach Putnam.
Given that the Rockies have loaded up on back-end starters since acquiring Slowey and the Indians are now facing uncertainty in their rotation after "Fausto Carmona" was arrested in the Dominican Republic last week on charges of using a false identity, the move makes sense.
What I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around is that the Rockies were able to get a significantly superior prospect in return for Slowey, despite the fact that he hasn't done anything to raise his value since Colorado acquired him.
Let's compare Turpen and Putnam. The former is a 25-year-old who spent the 2011 season pitching in Double-A, where he tallied more walks (35) than strikeouts (33) over 59 2/3 innings while posting a 4.83 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. The latter is a year younger, but spent last season in Triple-A, where he posted a strong 68-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69 innings to go along with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Baseball America recently ranked Putnam as the 10th-best prospect in Cleveland's (albeit weak) farm system.
In short, Putnam is a solid prospect who would stand a good chance of factoring into the Twins' bullpen this year and beyond. Turpen is a stagnating minor-leaguer coming off a terrible year, and he didn't receive an invite to big-league camp. He's shuffled between four organizations in the past two years and seems like a long shot to make an eventual impact in the majors.
You can make the case that Slowey was a headache, and that his best days as a pitcher are behind him, and that the Twins won't regret letting him go. But this isn't about Slowey. This is about properly valuing assets and taking advantage of opportunities to infuse the organization with talent -- an opportunity that the front office, at best, failed to take full advantage of here.
Maybe Slowey had to go, but what was the rush to move him in early December? Why not wait until a more motivated buyer than Colorado came along? Perhaps in spring training when injuries pop up and needs arise, potentially leading to a better market?
When the Slowey-for-Turpen swap went down, I was surprised that no club was willing to part with more than a marginal minor-league relief arm for a 27-year-old starting pitcher with a big-league track record, a dominant minor-league résumé and a reasonable price tag. As it turns out, that wasn't the case. The Twins simply acted too hastily and once again cost themselves in the process.
Showing posts with label trade analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade analysis. Show all posts
Monday, January 23, 2012
Thursday, December 08, 2011
An Ugly Break-Up
On June 1, 2007, Kevin Slowey made his major-league debut for the Twins, pitching six innings of one-run ball in a no-decision against the Athletics. It looked to be the start of a long and fruitful career in Minnesota. As a polished, college-drafted pitcher who made up for his lack of pure stuff with precise control and a willingness to attack the strike zone, the right-hander fit right into the Twins' preferred mold.
Slowey shared many traits with Brad Radke, a local legend who had retired the previous offseason. Unfortunately, Slowey would prove to lack two qualities that endeared Radke to fans and coaches in Minnesota: durability and a willingness to put the organization before himself.
Ultimately, these two factors were likely the greatest contributors in the deterioration of a once promising relationship, which came to an end this week when the Twins traded Slowey to Colorado for a player to be named later.
Without question, 2011 was the most tumultuous season of Slowey's career. He quibbled with coaches over an assignment to the bullpen at the beginning of the year, dictated when he was willing to pitch, shuttled back and forth between the minors, spoke to reporters about a desire to be traded and then performed poorly when plugged into the big-league rotation out of absolute necessity.
In the end, Slowey logged only 59 1/3 innings for the Twins, finishing with an 0-8 record and 6.67 ERA. By the end of the season, his stock had bottomed out, making this yet another instance in which the Twins traded a talented player with his value at its absolute nadir.
Regardless of Slowey's attitude issues, that reflects poorly on the Twins. If he turned into a malcontent -- a label that has been attached to him by numerous reporters -- the club played its own part in pushing him to that point.
They left him off the postseason roster in 2010 after a 13-win season. They made a mockery of the "three-man competition" for the final two spots in the rotation this spring, forcing Slowey to prepare for the season as a starter despite the fact that it was clear they had him pegged for a bullpen job all along.
And while Slowey's attitude might have been unbearable, that doesn't really affect fans, who simply want to see a winning product. While removing an alleged clubhouse cancer might make life easier for teammates and reporters, it doesn't make the Twins a better team from a competitive standpoint.
Slowey is still only 27 years old, and for his major-league career he owns a stellar 4.70 K/BB ratio. That's better than the mark Radke retired with, and in fact it would rank among the best in the majors any given year.
Yes, Slowey's been extremely hittable at times, and homer-prone, and he's no one's idea of an ace-caliber pitcher. But the bottom line is that, if healthy, he's got the talent to be a very solid rotation staple in this league. And he'll be cheap next year. And the Twins are very, very short on depth in their starting rotation right now.
Perhaps the situation between the two sides had become untenable and a parting of ways was all but necessary. But it's a damn shame that it had to come to this point, and Slowey is not the only one deserving of blame, regardless of how he's been portrayed by certain irritated media members that have abandoned any semblance of objectivity in smearing his name on the way out (I'm looking at you, Jim Souhan).
I wish Slowey the best going forward. Smug prick or not, he's a gifted pitcher and could easily end up getting the last laugh in this sad, sad saga.
Slowey shared many traits with Brad Radke, a local legend who had retired the previous offseason. Unfortunately, Slowey would prove to lack two qualities that endeared Radke to fans and coaches in Minnesota: durability and a willingness to put the organization before himself.
Ultimately, these two factors were likely the greatest contributors in the deterioration of a once promising relationship, which came to an end this week when the Twins traded Slowey to Colorado for a player to be named later.
Without question, 2011 was the most tumultuous season of Slowey's career. He quibbled with coaches over an assignment to the bullpen at the beginning of the year, dictated when he was willing to pitch, shuttled back and forth between the minors, spoke to reporters about a desire to be traded and then performed poorly when plugged into the big-league rotation out of absolute necessity.
In the end, Slowey logged only 59 1/3 innings for the Twins, finishing with an 0-8 record and 6.67 ERA. By the end of the season, his stock had bottomed out, making this yet another instance in which the Twins traded a talented player with his value at its absolute nadir.
Regardless of Slowey's attitude issues, that reflects poorly on the Twins. If he turned into a malcontent -- a label that has been attached to him by numerous reporters -- the club played its own part in pushing him to that point.
They left him off the postseason roster in 2010 after a 13-win season. They made a mockery of the "three-man competition" for the final two spots in the rotation this spring, forcing Slowey to prepare for the season as a starter despite the fact that it was clear they had him pegged for a bullpen job all along.
And while Slowey's attitude might have been unbearable, that doesn't really affect fans, who simply want to see a winning product. While removing an alleged clubhouse cancer might make life easier for teammates and reporters, it doesn't make the Twins a better team from a competitive standpoint.
Slowey is still only 27 years old, and for his major-league career he owns a stellar 4.70 K/BB ratio. That's better than the mark Radke retired with, and in fact it would rank among the best in the majors any given year.
Yes, Slowey's been extremely hittable at times, and homer-prone, and he's no one's idea of an ace-caliber pitcher. But the bottom line is that, if healthy, he's got the talent to be a very solid rotation staple in this league. And he'll be cheap next year. And the Twins are very, very short on depth in their starting rotation right now.
Perhaps the situation between the two sides had become untenable and a parting of ways was all but necessary. But it's a damn shame that it had to come to this point, and Slowey is not the only one deserving of blame, regardless of how he's been portrayed by certain irritated media members that have abandoned any semblance of objectivity in smearing his name on the way out (I'm looking at you, Jim Souhan).
I wish Slowey the best going forward. Smug prick or not, he's a gifted pitcher and could easily end up getting the last laugh in this sad, sad saga.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Thome's Gone to a Better Place
Jim Thome has been very good to the Minnesota Twins.
Originally signed to a dirt-cheap $1.5 million contract in 2010, he delivered an incredible performance at the age of 39, almost completely offsetting the loss of Justin Morneau by hitting .301/.436/.664 with 15 home runs and 31 RBI from July 7th (the date of Morneau's concussion) through the end of the season.
In the ensuing offseason, Thome reportedly turned down a more lucrative offer from the Rangers to return to Minnesota and help the Twins settle their unfinished business.
Thome has done his part this season, hitting .248/.357/.485 with 12 home runs (including the all-important No. 600) despite being 40 years old, but almost no one else has. So it was only right that the Twins granted passage from purgatory by trading the slugger to the Indians yesterday for a player to be named later, rather than forcing him to play out what might be his final season with a miserable and completely irrelevant club.
After suffering through one of the most humiliating sweeps in memory at Target Field this week, the Twins are now 55-75. That puts them on pace to finish 69-93, which might be generous considering they'll likely be playing out the season without Scott Baker, Denard Span, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Delmon Young and now Thome.
The Indians stand 6 1/2 out in the AL Central. They're a game below .500, and have gone 30-44 since jumping out to a surprising 33-20 start. This flawed Cleveland team stands little chance of overcoming the Tigers and making the playoffs, but Thome will now at least have the opportunity to play meaningful games down the stretch rather than running out the thread with a decimated group that -- despite Joe Mauer's firm insistence to the contrary -- appears to have completely packed it in.
The PTBNL in the deal likely won't amount to much, but it's better than nothing and the important thing here is that the Twins did right by Thome. They owed him that much.
Originally signed to a dirt-cheap $1.5 million contract in 2010, he delivered an incredible performance at the age of 39, almost completely offsetting the loss of Justin Morneau by hitting .301/.436/.664 with 15 home runs and 31 RBI from July 7th (the date of Morneau's concussion) through the end of the season.
In the ensuing offseason, Thome reportedly turned down a more lucrative offer from the Rangers to return to Minnesota and help the Twins settle their unfinished business.
Thome has done his part this season, hitting .248/.357/.485 with 12 home runs (including the all-important No. 600) despite being 40 years old, but almost no one else has. So it was only right that the Twins granted passage from purgatory by trading the slugger to the Indians yesterday for a player to be named later, rather than forcing him to play out what might be his final season with a miserable and completely irrelevant club.
After suffering through one of the most humiliating sweeps in memory at Target Field this week, the Twins are now 55-75. That puts them on pace to finish 69-93, which might be generous considering they'll likely be playing out the season without Scott Baker, Denard Span, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Delmon Young and now Thome.
The Indians stand 6 1/2 out in the AL Central. They're a game below .500, and have gone 30-44 since jumping out to a surprising 33-20 start. This flawed Cleveland team stands little chance of overcoming the Tigers and making the playoffs, but Thome will now at least have the opportunity to play meaningful games down the stretch rather than running out the thread with a decimated group that -- despite Joe Mauer's firm insistence to the contrary -- appears to have completely packed it in.
The PTBNL in the deal likely won't amount to much, but it's better than nothing and the important thing here is that the Twins did right by Thome. They owed him that much.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
End of the Delmon Era
Prior to the 2008 season, the Twins traded their top young starting pitcher and their starting shortstop to the Rays for Delmon Young, hoping he'd prove to be a long-term fix for their perpetual right-handed power shortage.
In 497 games over the next four years, he'd hit .287/.324/.429 with 47 home runs. That disappointingly mediocre offensive production, in conjunction with his abysmal defense in left field, made him a liability overall during his time in Minnesota.
While he's shown flashes of transforming into the premier power hitter that his minor-league track record and pedigree suggested possible, Young's horrendous plate discipline, lack of athleticism and inability (or unwillingness) to make adjustments prevented him from permanently turning the corner.
He was amidst his worst season yet when the Twins finally made the decision yesterday to cut the cord, dealing the troubled outfielder to Detroit in exchange for Single-A pitcher Cole Nelson and a player to be named later.
The return might not be terribly exciting, but the fact that the Twins were willing to deal him within the division tells you something about what they thought of him, and the fact that Young went unclaimed on waivers all the way up until the first-place Tigers tells you something about what the league thought of him.
I'd guess that when the Twins hung onto Young at the non-waiver deadline they were hoping his bat would come alive and aid their comeback effort, but with the team promptly dropping out of contention here in August, dumping the fledgling outfielder was essentially a no-brainer. There would be no way to justify tendering him a contract during the offseason and paying him around $6 million in arbitration after the year he's had. The Twins are better off putting that money toward free agency or re-signing Michael Cuddyer/Jason Kubel.
The door is now open for Ben Revere to play regularly for the rest of the season, which should give the Twins a better idea of how he'll factor into their 2012 plans. Meanwhile, Young's salary is off the books and the Twins have added a somewhat intriguing arm in Nelson, who could develop into a quality hard-throwing lefty reliever.
At 25, Young still has the potential to be more than he currently is, but it's been clear to me for some time that he was never going to reach that potential here. I wish him the best, but I'm not sorry to go see him go and I'm not particularly worried that dealing him will come back to haunt the Twins in the long run.
Certainly not as much as dealing for him in the first place did.
In 497 games over the next four years, he'd hit .287/.324/.429 with 47 home runs. That disappointingly mediocre offensive production, in conjunction with his abysmal defense in left field, made him a liability overall during his time in Minnesota.
While he's shown flashes of transforming into the premier power hitter that his minor-league track record and pedigree suggested possible, Young's horrendous plate discipline, lack of athleticism and inability (or unwillingness) to make adjustments prevented him from permanently turning the corner.
He was amidst his worst season yet when the Twins finally made the decision yesterday to cut the cord, dealing the troubled outfielder to Detroit in exchange for Single-A pitcher Cole Nelson and a player to be named later.
The return might not be terribly exciting, but the fact that the Twins were willing to deal him within the division tells you something about what they thought of him, and the fact that Young went unclaimed on waivers all the way up until the first-place Tigers tells you something about what the league thought of him.
I'd guess that when the Twins hung onto Young at the non-waiver deadline they were hoping his bat would come alive and aid their comeback effort, but with the team promptly dropping out of contention here in August, dumping the fledgling outfielder was essentially a no-brainer. There would be no way to justify tendering him a contract during the offseason and paying him around $6 million in arbitration after the year he's had. The Twins are better off putting that money toward free agency or re-signing Michael Cuddyer/Jason Kubel.
The door is now open for Ben Revere to play regularly for the rest of the season, which should give the Twins a better idea of how he'll factor into their 2012 plans. Meanwhile, Young's salary is off the books and the Twins have added a somewhat intriguing arm in Nelson, who could develop into a quality hard-throwing lefty reliever.
At 25, Young still has the potential to be more than he currently is, but it's been clear to me for some time that he was never going to reach that potential here. I wish him the best, but I'm not sorry to go see him go and I'm not particularly worried that dealing him will come back to haunt the Twins in the long run.
Certainly not as much as dealing for him in the first place did.
Thursday, December 09, 2010
Hardy Trade Cripples Infield Depth
Over the past two years, we've seen the Twins do nothing but spend, spend, spend. During the 2009 season, they added Orlando Cabrera, Jon Rauch and Carl Pavano, taking on salary in each deal. In the ensuing offseason, they traded for J.J. Hardy, retained Pavano at a relatively high price, signed Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome, and handed Joe Mauer one of the largest contracts in baseball history. Last season, they traded for Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes during the summer, again taking on millions in additional salary. Then, at the outset of this offseason, we saw them outbid all other clubs for the negotiation rights to a premier Japanese player, who they intend to sign.
At some point, this ride had to come to a stop. The Twins are obviously enjoying much more financial freedom with the backing of Target Field, but payroll wasn't going to keep escalating forever. Today, we saw it come to a thundering halt with the trade of J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris to the Orioles for a pair of minor-league pitchers. The move was clearly a flat-out salary dump, and be assured, shaving a few million dollars from the payroll is the only positive thing it accomplishes.
After finding himself demoted not only from the major-league roster but also the 40-man roster during the 2010 season, Brendan Harris was owed $1.75 million next year as a result of a misguided contract handed to him last winter. The team's motives in moving him (while eating only $500,000 of his salary) aren't hard to figure out.
As for Hardy, Bill Smith's claim that "the driving force in trading the shortstop was the desire for a faster lineup" is either intended to mislead or demonstrative of some really poor logic. The Twins ranked fifth in the American League last year in runs scored despite down years from several key players (Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel) and costly injuries to two starters (Hardy and Justin Morneau). What the Twins needed to improve their already solid offensive production was better health; there's little evidence that a lack of speed was all that detrimental.
I've come to have a lot of respect for Smith's judgment as a general manager, so I'm going to go ahead and assume his statements were only meant to mask a fact that would not be well received by the public: the Twins have hit a financial wall.
The two pitchers received in the trade, Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey, should not be viewed as locks to make the big-league roster next year by any means. They're preferable to the brand of pitching prospect the Twins have often targeted in past trades, in that they throw hard and can miss some bats. But Jacobson is a 24-year-old who hasn't pitched above Single-A and Hoey, while capable of racking up tons of strikeouts, has issued a staggering 66 walks in 100 innings over the past two years at Double-A and Triple-A (think Juan Morillo).
At best, these pitchers will be a couple additional question marks to throw into a 2011 bullpen mix that's already full of them. And in giving away a player who -- when healthy -- is a legitimate MLB starting shortstop (anyone who thinks Hardy isn't above average simply hasn't looked at the numbers of his peers), the Twins are apparently committing to a pair of question marks in the middle infield. There's no telling how the numbers of Tsuyoshi Nishioka, slated to start at second, will translate to the States. And we have little reason to believe that Casilla is suited to start at shortstop in the major leagues. He rates terribly at the position defensively, has never played 100 games in a big-league season and holds a .249/.306/.327 career hitting line in the majors.
If the Twins couldn't afford to pay Hardy around $6 million next year, then they couldn't afford it. But it didn't have to be that way. Due to past mistakes, they're locked into paying Cuddyer $10.5 million and Capps $7 million or more. While I like the sentiment behind signing Nishioka, I don't like the idea of replacing an established commodity in Hardy with an unknown for the sake of saving a few million bucks. And if they go out and spend a bunch of money on re-signing Pavano, which they are reportedly making a "strong push" to do, this move looks dramatically worse. It means that the Twins had the money to retain Hardy, and that they're comfortable bringing back a pitch-to-contact, ground ball pitcher while removing two Gold Glove caliber defenders from their infield.
You pay for reliability. It's why the Yankees are in the playoffs every single year. Now, while their payroll is far from embarrassing, the Twins find themselves up against some financial limitations, due to escalating salaries and misallocation of funds. As a result, they're going to head into the 2011 season with several serious question marks that could potentially contribute to the team's demise.
In my opinion, the chances of either Casilla or Nishioka (or both) becoming liabilities as everyday players are much greater than the chances of either pitcher received in this trade making the team's bullpen significantly better next year. Perhaps down the line this deal will look better than it does right now, but as things stand this is probably the most disappointed I've been with any move during Smith's tenure as GM.
The Twins may be a large-market team in name at this point, but their inability to retain Hardy and carry some quality infield depth into the 2011 season is what differentiates them from the true big spenders out east, and it's the exact type of thing that will keep them from ever being able to surpass the Yankees in team talent.
At some point, this ride had to come to a stop. The Twins are obviously enjoying much more financial freedom with the backing of Target Field, but payroll wasn't going to keep escalating forever. Today, we saw it come to a thundering halt with the trade of J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris to the Orioles for a pair of minor-league pitchers. The move was clearly a flat-out salary dump, and be assured, shaving a few million dollars from the payroll is the only positive thing it accomplishes.
After finding himself demoted not only from the major-league roster but also the 40-man roster during the 2010 season, Brendan Harris was owed $1.75 million next year as a result of a misguided contract handed to him last winter. The team's motives in moving him (while eating only $500,000 of his salary) aren't hard to figure out.
As for Hardy, Bill Smith's claim that "the driving force in trading the shortstop was the desire for a faster lineup" is either intended to mislead or demonstrative of some really poor logic. The Twins ranked fifth in the American League last year in runs scored despite down years from several key players (Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel) and costly injuries to two starters (Hardy and Justin Morneau). What the Twins needed to improve their already solid offensive production was better health; there's little evidence that a lack of speed was all that detrimental.
I've come to have a lot of respect for Smith's judgment as a general manager, so I'm going to go ahead and assume his statements were only meant to mask a fact that would not be well received by the public: the Twins have hit a financial wall.
The two pitchers received in the trade, Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey, should not be viewed as locks to make the big-league roster next year by any means. They're preferable to the brand of pitching prospect the Twins have often targeted in past trades, in that they throw hard and can miss some bats. But Jacobson is a 24-year-old who hasn't pitched above Single-A and Hoey, while capable of racking up tons of strikeouts, has issued a staggering 66 walks in 100 innings over the past two years at Double-A and Triple-A (think Juan Morillo).
At best, these pitchers will be a couple additional question marks to throw into a 2011 bullpen mix that's already full of them. And in giving away a player who -- when healthy -- is a legitimate MLB starting shortstop (anyone who thinks Hardy isn't above average simply hasn't looked at the numbers of his peers), the Twins are apparently committing to a pair of question marks in the middle infield. There's no telling how the numbers of Tsuyoshi Nishioka, slated to start at second, will translate to the States. And we have little reason to believe that Casilla is suited to start at shortstop in the major leagues. He rates terribly at the position defensively, has never played 100 games in a big-league season and holds a .249/.306/.327 career hitting line in the majors.
If the Twins couldn't afford to pay Hardy around $6 million next year, then they couldn't afford it. But it didn't have to be that way. Due to past mistakes, they're locked into paying Cuddyer $10.5 million and Capps $7 million or more. While I like the sentiment behind signing Nishioka, I don't like the idea of replacing an established commodity in Hardy with an unknown for the sake of saving a few million bucks. And if they go out and spend a bunch of money on re-signing Pavano, which they are reportedly making a "strong push" to do, this move looks dramatically worse. It means that the Twins had the money to retain Hardy, and that they're comfortable bringing back a pitch-to-contact, ground ball pitcher while removing two Gold Glove caliber defenders from their infield.
You pay for reliability. It's why the Yankees are in the playoffs every single year. Now, while their payroll is far from embarrassing, the Twins find themselves up against some financial limitations, due to escalating salaries and misallocation of funds. As a result, they're going to head into the 2011 season with several serious question marks that could potentially contribute to the team's demise.
In my opinion, the chances of either Casilla or Nishioka (or both) becoming liabilities as everyday players are much greater than the chances of either pitcher received in this trade making the team's bullpen significantly better next year. Perhaps down the line this deal will look better than it does right now, but as things stand this is probably the most disappointed I've been with any move during Smith's tenure as GM.
The Twins may be a large-market team in name at this point, but their inability to retain Hardy and carry some quality infield depth into the 2011 season is what differentiates them from the true big spenders out east, and it's the exact type of thing that will keep them from ever being able to surpass the Yankees in team talent.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Post-Waiver Wizard Waves Wand Again
During Terry Ryan's lengthy tenure as Twins' GM, I don't recall one significant trade being made after the July 31 non-waiver deadline within a season. That's not to say it never happened, but nothing stands out to me. Ryan was occasionally (but not often) aggressive in late July, but that was generally the extent of this team's involvement in the mid-season trade market.
To say things have changed under Bill Smith would be an understatement. Last year, Smith made a move at the deadline, acquiring Athletics shortstop Orlando Cabrera, but that was hardly his best trade of the season. In August, he was able to acquire Carl Pavano from the Indians and later Jon Rauch from the Diamondbacks. Both helped the Twins to a late postseason berth and both have stuck around to play valuable roles this year as the Twins have built up a 3.5 game lead in the AL Central nearing September.
This year, Smith once again made a move near the deadline, acquiring Nationals closer Matt Capps to replace a stumbling Jon Rauch, and yesterday he once again managed to out-do that non-waiver deal with an August trade that could prove more meaningful. Smith sent a player to be named later to the Angels for their own closer, Brian Fuentes.
Fuentes won't close in Minnesota, where the Twins have made a significant investment in Capps by trading one of their top prospects for him. Instead, Fuentes will take over as the team's top left-handed specialist and will serve alongside Jesse Crain to set up Capps in the ninth.
The Twins underwhelmed me and many others last week when they responded to losing both Jose Mijares and Ron Mahay in a short span of time by adding mediocre left-hander Randy Flores to the bullpen. It's not that Flores is a terrible reliever, but adding a player like him doesn't seem like the move of a team aggressively pursuing a championship. Conversely, adding Fuentes seems exactly like that type of move. Fuentes, in his prime, was one of the league's best relievers, registering a 3.04 ERA and 1.16 WHIP -- along with a 302-to-105 strikeout-to-walk ratio -- in 263 2/3 innings while racking up 111 saves as Colorado's closer between the 2005 and 2008 seasons.
That track record led the Angels to sign him prior to the 2009 season as a replacement for Francisco Rodriguez, who had priced himself out of the team's desired range by setting a single-season MLB saves record in 2008. The move proved sound and helped remind us of how the closer role can be overrated; Fuentes' numbers were thoroughly unimpressive (3.93 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9IP, career-low 7.5 K/9IP) and yet he still managed to make the All-Star team and notch a league-leading 48 saves.
Fuentes, now 35, isn't quite the elite reliever he was during those prime years with the Rockies and he's now miscast as a closer. As a set-up man specializing in shutting down left-handed hitters, though, you can't do a whole lot better. He's been almost untouchable against lefties this season, holding them to a minuscule .377 OPS, and over the course of his career he's held port-siders to a .213 average. He's also good enough against righties that he can be used as a straight eighth-inning guy, which differentiates him from the likes of Mahay and (to a lesser extent) Mijares, who tended to struggle when exposed to right-handed hitters.
Crain and Fuentes figure to be one of the league's best set-up combos in front of Capps, reminiscent to the shut-down duo of Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier in 2007 and other dominating back-end relief combos from earlier in the decade. While both relievers struggled a bit in the early months of the season, they've both been insanely hot since turning the corner around the summer's mid-point; since June 20, Crain owns a 0.34 ERA and is holding opponents to a .141 average, while Fuentes owns a 1.41 ERA and is holding opponents to a .159 average.
If those two can continue to pitch the way they have over the past two months, the Twins will have the luxury of pushing Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch (and, eventually, Jose Mijares) into middle-inning roles. While that trio has struggled in recent weeks, they're hardly bad -- in fact, early in the season, they were the team's top three high-leverage options. If they can return to form, this bullpen will sport some impressive depth as the Twins move forward down the stretch and (hopefully) into the postseason. If not, well, fortunately Ron Gardenhire will no longer have to rely on them to get key outs late in games.
I think the acquisition of Fuentes clearly upgrades the Twins bullpen and helps strengthen them for the stretch run. Ultimately, whether or not this is a good deal for the Twins will hinge on which prospect they end up losing. Considering that general managers tend to overvalue the save statistic and Fuentes led the league in saves last season, the possibility certainly exists that the Twins could part with something valuable. However, it's already late August and the Angels had little use for Fuentes, who was earning $9 million this season. This has the look of a salary dump and while I suspect that the PTBNL might be a better player than many currently expect, I don't think it's going to be a hugely loss in the long run.
Fuentes has a vesting option for 2011 in his contract that activates if he finishes 55 games this year, but he currently sits at 33 so that's not going to happen. At season's end, he will become a free agent, along with Rauch, Guerrier, Crain and Mahay. The Twins will have some decisions to make at that point with Joe Nathan returning from Tommy John surgery, but for now they'll have the luxury of relying on a deep and strong bullpen for the remainder of the 2010 campaign.
Beyond the impact of the actual deal, I love the message that Smith and the Twins front office are setting by bringing in an established, proven player like Fuentes for the stretch run. This team is in it to win it, and they're not going to let a destabilizing bullpen stand in their way.
To say things have changed under Bill Smith would be an understatement. Last year, Smith made a move at the deadline, acquiring Athletics shortstop Orlando Cabrera, but that was hardly his best trade of the season. In August, he was able to acquire Carl Pavano from the Indians and later Jon Rauch from the Diamondbacks. Both helped the Twins to a late postseason berth and both have stuck around to play valuable roles this year as the Twins have built up a 3.5 game lead in the AL Central nearing September.
This year, Smith once again made a move near the deadline, acquiring Nationals closer Matt Capps to replace a stumbling Jon Rauch, and yesterday he once again managed to out-do that non-waiver deal with an August trade that could prove more meaningful. Smith sent a player to be named later to the Angels for their own closer, Brian Fuentes.
Fuentes won't close in Minnesota, where the Twins have made a significant investment in Capps by trading one of their top prospects for him. Instead, Fuentes will take over as the team's top left-handed specialist and will serve alongside Jesse Crain to set up Capps in the ninth.
The Twins underwhelmed me and many others last week when they responded to losing both Jose Mijares and Ron Mahay in a short span of time by adding mediocre left-hander Randy Flores to the bullpen. It's not that Flores is a terrible reliever, but adding a player like him doesn't seem like the move of a team aggressively pursuing a championship. Conversely, adding Fuentes seems exactly like that type of move. Fuentes, in his prime, was one of the league's best relievers, registering a 3.04 ERA and 1.16 WHIP -- along with a 302-to-105 strikeout-to-walk ratio -- in 263 2/3 innings while racking up 111 saves as Colorado's closer between the 2005 and 2008 seasons.
That track record led the Angels to sign him prior to the 2009 season as a replacement for Francisco Rodriguez, who had priced himself out of the team's desired range by setting a single-season MLB saves record in 2008. The move proved sound and helped remind us of how the closer role can be overrated; Fuentes' numbers were thoroughly unimpressive (3.93 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9IP, career-low 7.5 K/9IP) and yet he still managed to make the All-Star team and notch a league-leading 48 saves.
Fuentes, now 35, isn't quite the elite reliever he was during those prime years with the Rockies and he's now miscast as a closer. As a set-up man specializing in shutting down left-handed hitters, though, you can't do a whole lot better. He's been almost untouchable against lefties this season, holding them to a minuscule .377 OPS, and over the course of his career he's held port-siders to a .213 average. He's also good enough against righties that he can be used as a straight eighth-inning guy, which differentiates him from the likes of Mahay and (to a lesser extent) Mijares, who tended to struggle when exposed to right-handed hitters.
Crain and Fuentes figure to be one of the league's best set-up combos in front of Capps, reminiscent to the shut-down duo of Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier in 2007 and other dominating back-end relief combos from earlier in the decade. While both relievers struggled a bit in the early months of the season, they've both been insanely hot since turning the corner around the summer's mid-point; since June 20, Crain owns a 0.34 ERA and is holding opponents to a .141 average, while Fuentes owns a 1.41 ERA and is holding opponents to a .159 average.
If those two can continue to pitch the way they have over the past two months, the Twins will have the luxury of pushing Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch (and, eventually, Jose Mijares) into middle-inning roles. While that trio has struggled in recent weeks, they're hardly bad -- in fact, early in the season, they were the team's top three high-leverage options. If they can return to form, this bullpen will sport some impressive depth as the Twins move forward down the stretch and (hopefully) into the postseason. If not, well, fortunately Ron Gardenhire will no longer have to rely on them to get key outs late in games.
I think the acquisition of Fuentes clearly upgrades the Twins bullpen and helps strengthen them for the stretch run. Ultimately, whether or not this is a good deal for the Twins will hinge on which prospect they end up losing. Considering that general managers tend to overvalue the save statistic and Fuentes led the league in saves last season, the possibility certainly exists that the Twins could part with something valuable. However, it's already late August and the Angels had little use for Fuentes, who was earning $9 million this season. This has the look of a salary dump and while I suspect that the PTBNL might be a better player than many currently expect, I don't think it's going to be a hugely loss in the long run.
Fuentes has a vesting option for 2011 in his contract that activates if he finishes 55 games this year, but he currently sits at 33 so that's not going to happen. At season's end, he will become a free agent, along with Rauch, Guerrier, Crain and Mahay. The Twins will have some decisions to make at that point with Joe Nathan returning from Tommy John surgery, but for now they'll have the luxury of relying on a deep and strong bullpen for the remainder of the 2010 campaign.
Beyond the impact of the actual deal, I love the message that Smith and the Twins front office are setting by bringing in an established, proven player like Fuentes for the stretch run. This team is in it to win it, and they're not going to let a destabilizing bullpen stand in their way.
Monday, August 02, 2010
Capps-Sized?
I've been in Denver for the past four days, so I had to track this season's trade deadline drama from afar. That means I had only an outside glimpse of the local reactions to the Twins' big move, which involved sending prized catching prospect Wilson Ramos to the Nationals in exchange for reliever Matt Capps.
Amongst my like-minded and esteemed blogging brethren, the response to the trade was overwhelmingly negative. Gleeman hated it. Same for the Geek. Parker ripped it. Even mild-mannered Seth was critical of the move. Sentiment ranged from disappointment to flat-out disgust.
Yet, in spite of all the many reasonable arguments that I read deriding the trade, I just couldn't bring myself to truly dislike it. I think the widespread backlash to this deal is extremely hyperbolic. The Twins shored up an area that could potentially become problematic over the final two months of the season, and in order to do so they had to part with an asset. The value of that asset is the subject of some debate.
If there's one thing this swap tells me, it's that Wilson Ramos was being wildly overrated as a prospect by the vast majority of Twins fans. In all honesty, this doesn't surprise me, because it's something I had been thinking about more and more over the past few weeks. Ramos is a nice prospect, to be sure, but would any team really be willing to part with an established star player for a guy who is getting utterly dominated at Triple-A?
Granted, Ramos is only 22 years old and he's taking his first stab at the highest level of the minors. But he hasn't hit this year. After narrowly missing a spot on the Twins roster out of spring training, Ramos got his season off to a terrible start in Rochester and he hasn't shown a whole lot of improvement over the course of the season. This is a fact that far too many people seemed content to overlook, enamored with his shiny scouting reports and impressive build.
For all his power potential, Ramos has hit only five home runs this season. In fact, he's only hit 36 of them in five minor-league seasons. During that span, he's also drawn only 86 walks. Undoubtedly, a large part of the reason that Ramos' innate power has not manifested in games relates to his terrible plate discipline, an issue that has been clearly present this year and has helped contribute to a .241 average and a ghastly .277 on-base percentage.
Ramos' name arose in trade rumors opposite Cliff Lee, Dan Haren and other prominent stars. There is little doubt that the Twins tried heavily to shop their top catching prospect, since moving Ramos was all but a foregone conclusion. I wrote as much back in early May, when the Ramos hype machine was at its peak in the aftermath of a spectacular major-league debut. While there's no denying that the Venezuelan catcher has the potential to become a very good big-league contributor, rebuilding teams like the Mariners and Diamondbacks don't want to trade away their top trade piece for a player who is as much of a gamble as he is.
Jesus Montero, whom the Yankees reportedly used to outbid the Twins for Lee (though they themselves were subsequently outbid by the Rangers and Justin Smoak), currently owns an .809 OPS in Triple-A. Last year, he posted a .951 OPS between Single-A and Double-A. Ramos, whose OPS sits at .619 this season, hasn't posted a figure above .783 in a full season (although he did put up an .835 OPS in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign) and his career mark sits at .757. He's been young for every level, which is why Ramos is rightfully regarded as a very good prospect, but there are holes in the his swing that the kid simply hasn't been able to figure out. Montero is highly regarded not only because of his talent and youth -- he's almost two years younger than Ramos -- but also because he's translated his skills into impressive on-field results. That's what teams want in a big deadline deal. It's what Ramos doesn't have.
Ramos would only languish in the Twins' organization, whether being held in Triple-A in the hopes that improved performance would boost his stagnating trade value or being used as Joe Mauer's major-league back-up. The Twins had to trade their top catching prospect because they are making their push right now, with a championship-caliber roster assembled. After dangling Ramos all around in the weeks leading up to the deadline, Capps was the player that Bill Smith judged to be an appropriate value for Ramos. I don't doubt that Smith tried to turn Ramos into a better player than Capps, I just don't think he could.
Without question, the addition of Capps improves the Twins' bullpen. He's a better reliever than Jon Rauch, whom he'll be replacing at the back end. Rauch has performed admirably this year, converting 21 of 25 save opportunities while posting a 3.05 ERA. But he'd shown weakness in recent weeks, with his stellar control display early in the season trending back toward his mediocre career norm, and a 5.40 ERA and .361 opponents' batting average in July were doing nothing to inspire the Twins' confidence in their interim closer. This team has World Series aspirations and they wanted a more legitimate option taking care of the ninth inning.
Capps might be nine inches shorter than Rauch, but he is nonetheless an imposing presence on the mound. Weighing in at 245 lbs, the right-hander hurls a fastball that averages about 94 mph, several ticks faster than Rauch's offering. Whereas Rauch, who is four years Capps' senior, owns a relatively unimpressive 3.73 career ERA and 1.24 WHIP, Capps' career marks stand at 3.45 and and 1.19 in those categories, and this in spite of a down year in 2009 that has all the signs of a fluke. Capps possesses elite command, misses more bats and deserves more trust in high-leverage situations.
His addition also has a positive ripple effect on the Twins' bullpen. It pushes Rauch down into a set-up role he's better suited for, and eliminates Nick Blackburn -- who was of little use as a relief arm -- from occupying a roster spot. The Twins' once teetering bullpen now has the looks of a solid strength. Its right-handed options (Capps, Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Anthony Slama) are all well above average and the Jose Mijares/Ron Mahay combo stands as a fine defense against lefties. Perhaps most importantly, Capps is under team control for next season, which will make the looming free agent departures of Rauch and Guerrier far more palatable as Joe Nathan attempts his comeback from Tommy John surgery.
You'll notice I've gone through this entire post defending the trade without referring to two hot phrases that often pop up in tirades against the acquisition of Capps: his status as an established closer and his standing as a National League All-Star. To be clear, I don't doubt that both of these factors caused the Twins to overvalue Capps to some degree. But the front office is hardly delusional for thinking he makes their bullpen better, and with the rotation seemingly rounding into shape while the offense continues to churn out runs, the relief corps looked to be the only aspect of this team deserving of a significant external upgrade.
The Twins might have overpaid for an asset in Capps. But they didn't overpay to the degree that a lot of people seem to think, and in my opinion the organization should be lauded for making a bold move in their push to bring home a World Series title in their first season at Target Field. Ramos might turn into a very good player and he might not, but whatever his outcome it wasn't going to be realized as a Minnesota Twin. He had no future here with Mauer entrenched, and Smith moved his valued trade piece for what he could to give a little additional help to the excellent roster he's assembled this year for the stretch run. The Twins made a play for now -- how often have we been able to say that so confidently in the past? We haven't seen this type of aggression before and I personally like it.
The Twins are building steam and have won eight straight. With Capps added to the roster, a bullpen meltdown becomes less of a threat to derail their momentum as they ease back into a more difficult stretch of the schedule. By the time the playoffs roll around this year and onward into 2011, I anticipate that people will be happy Capps is around. I don't think they'll miss Ramos.
* I do realize, by the way, that I tweeted only a couple days before the trade that I wouldn't deal Ramos for Capps. Call it a change of heart. After looking at all the facts, I just can't criticize the Twins for making this move, even if it doesn't initially strike me as a great deal.
Amongst my like-minded and esteemed blogging brethren, the response to the trade was overwhelmingly negative. Gleeman hated it. Same for the Geek. Parker ripped it. Even mild-mannered Seth was critical of the move. Sentiment ranged from disappointment to flat-out disgust.
Yet, in spite of all the many reasonable arguments that I read deriding the trade, I just couldn't bring myself to truly dislike it. I think the widespread backlash to this deal is extremely hyperbolic. The Twins shored up an area that could potentially become problematic over the final two months of the season, and in order to do so they had to part with an asset. The value of that asset is the subject of some debate.
If there's one thing this swap tells me, it's that Wilson Ramos was being wildly overrated as a prospect by the vast majority of Twins fans. In all honesty, this doesn't surprise me, because it's something I had been thinking about more and more over the past few weeks. Ramos is a nice prospect, to be sure, but would any team really be willing to part with an established star player for a guy who is getting utterly dominated at Triple-A?
Granted, Ramos is only 22 years old and he's taking his first stab at the highest level of the minors. But he hasn't hit this year. After narrowly missing a spot on the Twins roster out of spring training, Ramos got his season off to a terrible start in Rochester and he hasn't shown a whole lot of improvement over the course of the season. This is a fact that far too many people seemed content to overlook, enamored with his shiny scouting reports and impressive build.
For all his power potential, Ramos has hit only five home runs this season. In fact, he's only hit 36 of them in five minor-league seasons. During that span, he's also drawn only 86 walks. Undoubtedly, a large part of the reason that Ramos' innate power has not manifested in games relates to his terrible plate discipline, an issue that has been clearly present this year and has helped contribute to a .241 average and a ghastly .277 on-base percentage.
Ramos' name arose in trade rumors opposite Cliff Lee, Dan Haren and other prominent stars. There is little doubt that the Twins tried heavily to shop their top catching prospect, since moving Ramos was all but a foregone conclusion. I wrote as much back in early May, when the Ramos hype machine was at its peak in the aftermath of a spectacular major-league debut. While there's no denying that the Venezuelan catcher has the potential to become a very good big-league contributor, rebuilding teams like the Mariners and Diamondbacks don't want to trade away their top trade piece for a player who is as much of a gamble as he is.
Jesus Montero, whom the Yankees reportedly used to outbid the Twins for Lee (though they themselves were subsequently outbid by the Rangers and Justin Smoak), currently owns an .809 OPS in Triple-A. Last year, he posted a .951 OPS between Single-A and Double-A. Ramos, whose OPS sits at .619 this season, hasn't posted a figure above .783 in a full season (although he did put up an .835 OPS in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign) and his career mark sits at .757. He's been young for every level, which is why Ramos is rightfully regarded as a very good prospect, but there are holes in the his swing that the kid simply hasn't been able to figure out. Montero is highly regarded not only because of his talent and youth -- he's almost two years younger than Ramos -- but also because he's translated his skills into impressive on-field results. That's what teams want in a big deadline deal. It's what Ramos doesn't have.
Ramos would only languish in the Twins' organization, whether being held in Triple-A in the hopes that improved performance would boost his stagnating trade value or being used as Joe Mauer's major-league back-up. The Twins had to trade their top catching prospect because they are making their push right now, with a championship-caliber roster assembled. After dangling Ramos all around in the weeks leading up to the deadline, Capps was the player that Bill Smith judged to be an appropriate value for Ramos. I don't doubt that Smith tried to turn Ramos into a better player than Capps, I just don't think he could.
Without question, the addition of Capps improves the Twins' bullpen. He's a better reliever than Jon Rauch, whom he'll be replacing at the back end. Rauch has performed admirably this year, converting 21 of 25 save opportunities while posting a 3.05 ERA. But he'd shown weakness in recent weeks, with his stellar control display early in the season trending back toward his mediocre career norm, and a 5.40 ERA and .361 opponents' batting average in July were doing nothing to inspire the Twins' confidence in their interim closer. This team has World Series aspirations and they wanted a more legitimate option taking care of the ninth inning.
Capps might be nine inches shorter than Rauch, but he is nonetheless an imposing presence on the mound. Weighing in at 245 lbs, the right-hander hurls a fastball that averages about 94 mph, several ticks faster than Rauch's offering. Whereas Rauch, who is four years Capps' senior, owns a relatively unimpressive 3.73 career ERA and 1.24 WHIP, Capps' career marks stand at 3.45 and and 1.19 in those categories, and this in spite of a down year in 2009 that has all the signs of a fluke. Capps possesses elite command, misses more bats and deserves more trust in high-leverage situations.
His addition also has a positive ripple effect on the Twins' bullpen. It pushes Rauch down into a set-up role he's better suited for, and eliminates Nick Blackburn -- who was of little use as a relief arm -- from occupying a roster spot. The Twins' once teetering bullpen now has the looks of a solid strength. Its right-handed options (Capps, Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Anthony Slama) are all well above average and the Jose Mijares/Ron Mahay combo stands as a fine defense against lefties. Perhaps most importantly, Capps is under team control for next season, which will make the looming free agent departures of Rauch and Guerrier far more palatable as Joe Nathan attempts his comeback from Tommy John surgery.
You'll notice I've gone through this entire post defending the trade without referring to two hot phrases that often pop up in tirades against the acquisition of Capps: his status as an established closer and his standing as a National League All-Star. To be clear, I don't doubt that both of these factors caused the Twins to overvalue Capps to some degree. But the front office is hardly delusional for thinking he makes their bullpen better, and with the rotation seemingly rounding into shape while the offense continues to churn out runs, the relief corps looked to be the only aspect of this team deserving of a significant external upgrade.
The Twins might have overpaid for an asset in Capps. But they didn't overpay to the degree that a lot of people seem to think, and in my opinion the organization should be lauded for making a bold move in their push to bring home a World Series title in their first season at Target Field. Ramos might turn into a very good player and he might not, but whatever his outcome it wasn't going to be realized as a Minnesota Twin. He had no future here with Mauer entrenched, and Smith moved his valued trade piece for what he could to give a little additional help to the excellent roster he's assembled this year for the stretch run. The Twins made a play for now -- how often have we been able to say that so confidently in the past? We haven't seen this type of aggression before and I personally like it.
The Twins are building steam and have won eight straight. With Capps added to the roster, a bullpen meltdown becomes less of a threat to derail their momentum as they ease back into a more difficult stretch of the schedule. By the time the playoffs roll around this year and onward into 2011, I anticipate that people will be happy Capps is around. I don't think they'll miss Ramos.
* I do realize, by the way, that I tweeted only a couple days before the trade that I wouldn't deal Ramos for Capps. Call it a change of heart. After looking at all the facts, I just can't criticize the Twins for making this move, even if it doesn't initially strike me as a great deal.
Monday, November 09, 2009
Wasting No Time
Any concerns I had that Bill Smith and the Twins would become complacent in addressing lineup holes this offseason after enjoying a successful overall season offensively in 2009 were quickly assuaged on Friday morning when the club announced that they'd traded Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. As a relatively young shortstop who remains controllable for two more years and who has historically hit for power while playing great defense, Hardy seemed destined to be a hot commodity this winter after Milwaukee had made clear that he'd be available. Smith wasted no time in taking the 27-year-old infielder off the market, completing a swap just as the Yankees were parading through New York City to celebrate their World Series victory -- still only two days old.
That the Twins were interested in Hardy comes as no huge surprise. He's a very logical fit for this team and was in fact the very top player listed among our potential trade targets in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. Here's what I wrote about Hardy there:
Age: 27 (DOB: 8/19/82) | Contract Status: Arb Elig
2009 Stats: .229/.302/.357, 11 HR, 47 RBIWith the free agent market for shortstops looking exceedingly thin and the Twins lacking any legitimate prospects at that position, it appears that the only way to make a meaningful upgrade might be through a trade. Teams generally aren’t willing to part with capable young shortstops that are competent at the dish and in the field, but Hardy may be an exception. He is coming off a dismal offensive year, but he had averaged 25 homers and 77 RBI in the two seasons prior and he’s only 27 years old. Plus, he rates quite well defensively. The Brewers have a major-league ready SS prospect in Alcides Escobar, so they may be willing to deal Hardy even though his value is down. They’d likely seek big-league ready pitching in return.
Here's a more in-depth scouting report on Hardy, courtesy of Kyle Lobner from the Brewers blog Brew Crew Ball (you can also read a take on the trade from that blog here):
The Twins are getting a solid defensive shortstop in Hardy, but his potential contribution as an offensive player is unknown at best. After having two above average seasons in 2007 and 2008, including an All Star appearance in 2007, Hardy's stat line at the plate declined dramatically in 2009, when he posted a .659 OPS, the lowest of his major league career, with a .229/.302/.357 line.
A fair portion of Hardy's struggles last season can probably be attributed to luck: Hardy hit .264 on balls in play last season, down from .280 over the course of his career, and only connected for home runs on 8.3% of his fly balls, down from his 11.2% career total. However, it's hard to blame all of Hardy's struggles on luck: His line drive percentage has dropped in each of the last four seasons, from 19% in 2006 all the way down to 13.9% last season. Hardy had some tough luck early, hitting a lot of line drives at defenders, but never seemed to recover or make the adjustments necessary to regain his stride. He also doesn't take many pitches; his career walk rate is just 8.3% and his career OBP is .323.
Even if Hardy doesn't bounce back offensively, he's a very good defensive shortstop. FanGraphs has him listed as saving 29.7 runs in the field over the last three seasons, good for roughly three wins. There's another interesting note in those numbers, though: Hardy saved 14.8 runs in 2007, 8.2 in 2008 and 6.7 in 2009. While Hardy's 30 runs saved over the last three seasons ranked sixth among major league shortstops during that span, his 6.7 last season was outside the top ten. His UZR/150 over the last three seasons have been 16.7, 8.5 and 8.8.
You might think a guy as defensively gifted as Hardy would have to have some pretty notable athletic ability but you'd be wrong, at least when it comes to running speed. Hardy might be one of major league baseball's slowest shortstops. He frequently looks like he's dragging an anchor behind him on the basepaths, and struggles to take the extra base in situations where a runner with average speed would get in easily. He also only turned 7 ground balls into infield hits in 2009 - that 4.5% was the sixth lowest among shortstops with at least 460 PAs.
Hardy will likely get a raise in arbitration, even if it is a small one, and made $4.65 million in 2009. With that said, the Brewers' decision to demote Hardy to AAA for 20 days in August pushed his arbitration clock back a year, and he'll be under the Twins' control for two more seasons, should they decide to hang onto him.
The Twins are getting a solid defensive shortstop in Hardy, but his potential contribution as an offensive player is unknown at best. After having two above average seasons in 2007 and 2008, including an All Star appearance in 2007, Hardy's stat line at the plate declined dramatically in 2009, when he posted a .659 OPS, the lowest of his major league career, with a .229/.302/.357 line.
A fair portion of Hardy's struggles last season can probably be attributed to luck: Hardy hit .264 on balls in play last season, down from .280 over the course of his career, and only connected for home runs on 8.3% of his fly balls, down from his 11.2% career total. However, it's hard to blame all of Hardy's struggles on luck: His line drive percentage has dropped in each of the last four seasons, from 19% in 2006 all the way down to 13.9% last season. Hardy had some tough luck early, hitting a lot of line drives at defenders, but never seemed to recover or make the adjustments necessary to regain his stride. He also doesn't take many pitches; his career walk rate is just 8.3% and his career OBP is .323.
Even if Hardy doesn't bounce back offensively, he's a very good defensive shortstop. FanGraphs has him listed as saving 29.7 runs in the field over the last three seasons, good for roughly three wins. There's another interesting note in those numbers, though: Hardy saved 14.8 runs in 2007, 8.2 in 2008 and 6.7 in 2009. While Hardy's 30 runs saved over the last three seasons ranked sixth among major league shortstops during that span, his 6.7 last season was outside the top ten. His UZR/150 over the last three seasons have been 16.7, 8.5 and 8.8.
You might think a guy as defensively gifted as Hardy would have to have some pretty notable athletic ability but you'd be wrong, at least when it comes to running speed. Hardy might be one of major league baseball's slowest shortstops. He frequently looks like he's dragging an anchor behind him on the basepaths, and struggles to take the extra base in situations where a runner with average speed would get in easily. He also only turned 7 ground balls into infield hits in 2009 - that 4.5% was the sixth lowest among shortstops with at least 460 PAs.
Hardy will likely get a raise in arbitration, even if it is a small one, and made $4.65 million in 2009. With that said, the Brewers' decision to demote Hardy to AAA for 20 days in August pushed his arbitration clock back a year, and he'll be under the Twins' control for two more seasons, should they decide to hang onto him.
Many were surprised that the pitching-starved Brewers didn't move Hardy in return for a young starter (I had suggested Glen Perkins, whose name may or may not have come up in these discussions depending on who you listen to), but Gomez fills a need as well. With Mike Cameron departing, the Brewers were looking for another strong defensive center fielder, and they'll hope that with regular playing time in 2010 he can start to realize his offensive potential while tracking down everything between left and right.
Reaction to this trade from Twins fans has been overwhelmingly positive, and with good reason. As mentioned in my writeup from the Handbook and in Lobner's report, Hardy had been an 
excellent hitter during the two seasons prior to 2009. It is, however, difficult to ignore the struggles that the shortstop experienced during this past season. There was no major injury to explain away his dismal hitting, and with a strikeout rate that has jumped for three straight seasons, there are some who believe his drop-off last year was no fluke. If he is unable to improve somewhat significantly on his disappointing production in '09, Hardy will hardly be the dramatic upgrade this team is looking for at the bottom of the lineup. But the Twins certainly seem confident that he can rebound, and his power potential is very intriguing for a club that hasn't gotten a .400 slugging percentage from the shortstop position since 2001 and hasn't had a 20-HR hitter there since 1979.
excellent hitter during the two seasons prior to 2009. It is, however, difficult to ignore the struggles that the shortstop experienced during this past season. There was no major injury to explain away his dismal hitting, and with a strikeout rate that has jumped for three straight seasons, there are some who believe his drop-off last year was no fluke. If he is unable to improve somewhat significantly on his disappointing production in '09, Hardy will hardly be the dramatic upgrade this team is looking for at the bottom of the lineup. But the Twins certainly seem confident that he can rebound, and his power potential is very intriguing for a club that hasn't gotten a .400 slugging percentage from the shortstop position since 2001 and hasn't had a 20-HR hitter there since 1979. The loss of Gomez is being downplayed by many who have grown tired of his mental mistakes and offensive ineptitude, but his departure is not insignificant. Twins' pitchers allowed the highest fly ball percentage of any team in the majors this year, and that doesn't figure to change significantly next season. In trading Gomez, the Twins seem to be committing to an outfield alignment of Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer, which represents an incredibly vast downgrade from the Span/Gomez/Cuddyer alignment. Hardy is a better defensive player than anyone the Twins trotted out at shortstop this season, but given the nature of this pitching staff, swapping out Gomez for Hardy will likely lead to an overall drop in defensive proficiency.
Of course, Gomez's slick glove doesn't do much good when he's stuck on the bench, and Gardenhire seemed to have made up his mind on which young outfielder he was going to commit to by the end of the year. In September and October, as the Twins made a furious dash for the playoffs, Young started in the outfield 26 times; Gomez only eight. For better or for worse, Gomez had become the fourth outfielder on this club, and any time you can trade a reserve player for a starting shortstop you've done pretty well for yourself.
Hardy is a nice addition with the potential to provide serious power from the bottom of the lineup (or perhaps the No. 2 spot, if Gardenhire feels so misguidedly inclined) while likely upgrading the team's defense at one of the most important spots on the field. Gomez's departure also seemingly finalizes the club's outfield situation, effectively putting an end to the tired Gomez vs. Young debates. Second base and third base remain uncertain, along with at least one spot in the pitching rotation, so Smith's work is hardly done. But, less than a week into the offseason, he has already gotten a running start on his work for this pivotal offseason. Meanwhile, he has very quickly put to rest any worries that he'd be sitting on his hands as the team prepares to defend its AL Central title in the first year at Target Field.
Smith deserves credit for this bold, aggressive move. Even if it does mean that one of my very favorite Twins players will be suiting up across the border next season.
Monday, August 03, 2009
A Steep Hill to Climb
When I left town on Thursday, the Twins were riding a four-game winning streak and were involved in numerous trade rumors. There was a prevailing sense of optimism amongst fans; the Twins were closing the gap in the division and it seemed that with a wise move or two, Bill Smith might be able to give them the boost they'd need to overcome the Tigers and White Sox.
Four days later, things are very different indeed. The Twins' sole deadline acquisition came in the form of Orlando Cabrera, and the team responded to the trade by being absolutely thumped in a three-game home sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels.
I'll address the Cabrera trade first. If you've read my post from last October about the possibility of signing Cabrera as a free agent or last Thursday's post that addressed the notion of trading for him at the deadline, you can probably guess that I'm not overly enthused about this trade. Cabrera isn't much of a hitter and it seems clear that his once-strong defensive skills have deteriorated as he's aged into his mid-30s. While Cabrera is a competent offensive player who is certainly capable of providing better production than Nick Punto, his playing time is likely to come more at the expense of Brendan Harris, who is a pretty similar hitter. All in all, Cabrera is likely to provide a marginal upgrade at best.
With that being said, I don't mind the move. My opposition to signing Cabrera during the offseason stemmed from the notion that he'd be able to land an expensive multi-year deal (which he didn't). My opposition to trading for him this past week stemmed from the notion that he'd command a valuable return -- after all, there were rumors that the A's were seeking Danny Valencia in return for their shortstop. Ultimately, Cabrera cost the Twins Tyler Ladendorf, a shortstop acquired in the second round of last year's draft. And while Ladendorf is an intriguing prospect whose absence cripples the organization's already thin minor-league middle-infield depth, he's a long ways away from contributing at the major-league level, and has enough flaws that there's a pretty good chance he never will.
Also, while Cabrera might be essentially equal to Harris from both an offensive and defensive standpoint at this juncture, Ron Gardenhire will actually play Cabrera. So he is an upgrade, even if the Twins have an in-house option who could seemingly make the same impact. Cabrera's arrival likely signals the end of the disastrous Punto/Casilla middle-infield combination that had been written into the starting lineup far too often as of late, and also slides Punto over to a position where I feel he is much stronger defensively. So, while I don't feel that Cabrera is a particularly good player at this stage, the domino effect from his acquisition should make the Twins a better club. But, as I said, only marginally so.
And unfortunately, the areas that Cabrera is impacting aren't the ones that were likely to prevent the Twins from being able to make the playoffs. As I suggested in Thursday's post, pitching is the area that has become a cardinal issue for the Twins, and that was made abundantly clear during this weekend's series in which the Twins allowed 35 runs over three games in a trio of blowout losses. At this point, it seems that no one other than Scott Baker can be remotely relied upon for a Quality Start. The bullpen continues to struggle with only three trustworthy late-inning arms, and Smith's inability to add an extra reliever with eighth-inning ability will likely force Gardenhire to once again lean too heavily on Matt Guerrier, with potentially terrible consequences.
I'm fine with Smith's addition of Cabrera, given the low cost and the fairly good chance that the move appeased some unrest within the clubhouse over this front office's lack of action. Yet, Cabrera's addition isn't likely to have a particularly large impact; certainly not as large as the additions made by the Twins' two competitors in this division. For better or for worse, the Twins will probably go forward with the pitching options that they currently have in their organization, and right now that's looking like a pretty glum path to tread.
If Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins can all get back on track to some degree while Jesse Crain emerges as a legitimate consistent late-innings option and at least one other reliever -- either on the current roster or in the minors -- can step in and make some key outs, the Twins might have a chance at taking this division and making a splash in the postseason. Short of all those things occurring, I really don't think they have much of a chance. I'm certainly not the type to declare a season over with two months remaining, but it's tough to be optimistic about the Twins' chances right now. Even with Orlando Cabrera.
Four days later, things are very different indeed. The Twins' sole deadline acquisition came in the form of Orlando Cabrera, and the team responded to the trade by being absolutely thumped in a three-game home sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels.
I'll address the Cabrera trade first. If you've read my post from last October about the possibility of signing Cabrera as a free agent or last Thursday's post that addressed the notion of trading for him at the deadline, you can probably guess that I'm not overly enthused about this trade. Cabrera isn't much of a hitter and it seems clear that his once-strong defensive skills have deteriorated as he's aged into his mid-30s. While Cabrera is a competent offensive player who is certainly capable of providing better production than Nick Punto, his playing time is likely to come more at the expense of Brendan Harris, who is a pretty similar hitter. All in all, Cabrera is likely to provide a marginal upgrade at best.
With that being said, I don't mind the move. My opposition to signing Cabrera during the offseason stemmed from the notion that he'd be able to land an expensive multi-year deal (which he didn't). My opposition to trading for him this past week stemmed from the notion that he'd command a valuable return -- after all, there were rumors that the A's were seeking Danny Valencia in return for their shortstop. Ultimately, Cabrera cost the Twins Tyler Ladendorf, a shortstop acquired in the second round of last year's draft. And while Ladendorf is an intriguing prospect whose absence cripples the organization's already thin minor-league middle-infield depth, he's a long ways away from contributing at the major-league level, and has enough flaws that there's a pretty good chance he never will.
Also, while Cabrera might be essentially equal to Harris from both an offensive and defensive standpoint at this juncture, Ron Gardenhire will actually play Cabrera. So he is an upgrade, even if the Twins have an in-house option who could seemingly make the same impact. Cabrera's arrival likely signals the end of the disastrous Punto/Casilla middle-infield combination that had been written into the starting lineup far too often as of late, and also slides Punto over to a position where I feel he is much stronger defensively. So, while I don't feel that Cabrera is a particularly good player at this stage, the domino effect from his acquisition should make the Twins a better club. But, as I said, only marginally so.
And unfortunately, the areas that Cabrera is impacting aren't the ones that were likely to prevent the Twins from being able to make the playoffs. As I suggested in Thursday's post, pitching is the area that has become a cardinal issue for the Twins, and that was made abundantly clear during this weekend's series in which the Twins allowed 35 runs over three games in a trio of blowout losses. At this point, it seems that no one other than Scott Baker can be remotely relied upon for a Quality Start. The bullpen continues to struggle with only three trustworthy late-inning arms, and Smith's inability to add an extra reliever with eighth-inning ability will likely force Gardenhire to once again lean too heavily on Matt Guerrier, with potentially terrible consequences.
I'm fine with Smith's addition of Cabrera, given the low cost and the fairly good chance that the move appeased some unrest within the clubhouse over this front office's lack of action. Yet, Cabrera's addition isn't likely to have a particularly large impact; certainly not as large as the additions made by the Twins' two competitors in this division. For better or for worse, the Twins will probably go forward with the pitching options that they currently have in their organization, and right now that's looking like a pretty glum path to tread.
If Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins can all get back on track to some degree while Jesse Crain emerges as a legitimate consistent late-innings option and at least one other reliever -- either on the current roster or in the minors -- can step in and make some key outs, the Twins might have a chance at taking this division and making a splash in the postseason. Short of all those things occurring, I really don't think they have much of a chance. I'm certainly not the type to declare a season over with two months remaining, but it's tough to be optimistic about the Twins' chances right now. Even with Orlando Cabrera.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Unimportant History
Over the weekend, the Twins took a tough split against one of the league's best teams. Last night, they watched their bullpen once again blow a lead against one of the league's worst teams. Sigh.
Beyond some recent tough losses, recently there has been even more of a sense of annoyance. Annoyance at having to continuously face the onslaught of major media stories about Fransisco Rodriguez's "historical run" at Bobby Thigpen's save record.
It's true that the relative unimportance of this record has already been tackled by many major writers, but it's hard to ignore when the only real story over the weekend seemed to have been Rodriguez's 49th and 50th saves. The most common point to make, and perhaps the most important thing, is that Rodriguez's talent has nothing to do with the production of save opportunities that has allowed him to make a run at the record. A combination of luck, an often mediocre offense, and a great pitching staff outside of K-Rod helped produce the 55 save opportunities that have allowed Rodriguez to make this run.
This brings up several points to consider. One is that the save itself and the save opportunity is usually converted and the statistic itself isn't all that meaningful. The majority of three-run and even two-run leads are saved. Therefore, as a raw number, the amount of saves is not as important as save percentage. Granted, 50/55 save opportunities amounts to around a 91% save percentage, which is very good. However, our own Joe Nathan (92.1%), Joakim Soria (92.3%) and Mariano Rivera (97%) have significantly higher save percentages. What is the difference? Nathan has had 38 save opportunities and Rivera only 33. In fact, Rodriguez has had 16 more save opportunities than anyone else in the majors.
That certainly seems to suggest that Rodriguez's pursuit is not any more impressive than what Brad Lidge has done this year, converting all 31 save opportunities has had for the Phillies. In fact, that arguably not only makes Lidge the better closer, but also the more valuable one. Same goes for Soria, Nathan, and Rivera. All three AL closers listed have WHIPs below 1, with Rivera's 0.72 blowing the competition away. What is Rodriguez's? An ugly 1.27, which is also reflected by his mediocre 62/29 K/BB ratio, or 2.14. Nathan's is an impressive 4.69, but Rivera's in an outerwordly 11.17 or 67/6.
Which once again begs another question. Why aren't fans also discussing what might be Nathan's best relief year, with sub-1.00 ERA currently (and now a 1.13 ERA partially thanks to Nick Punto's infallible defense). And why aren't fans discussing how Rivera, at 38, is also possibly having his best year, with opponents "hitting" .175/.205/.257 this year to go with a 1.53 ERA. Each are having incredible years, but have gone relatively unnoticed because while they convert saves better than Rodriguez, they just don't have that counting stat the media seems so obsessed with. Eventually, fans might lose their affinity for the overrated save, but for now, it is making a lot more news then it should, leaving better stories in the dust.
* Twins fans may have noticed the return of a familiar face to the bullpen via the trade. Eddie Guardado was acquired from the Texas Rangers for minor-league closer Mark Hamburger. (As a fun fact, Hamburger was not drafted, but rather signed through a Twins tryout camp, after displaying a mid-90s fastball.) Guardado is nothing near the All-Star closer the Twins had back in 2002 and 2003, as he only has 28 strikeouts (versus 17 walks) in 49 1/3 innings, which is not too impressive and suggests he's been somewhat lucky, but he also has only given up 38 hits. More importantly, while he is killing lefties (.167/.521 OPS), righties are not knocking him around too badly either (.252/.721).
Guardado was able to quickly help the Twins last night, working a quick, scoreless eighth inning. It will continue to occur to many Twins fans that the front office could have made claims on superior bullpen help, like Chad Bradford, but trading for Guardado while giving up very little is at least a solid move for the club. Guardado doesn't strike me as the solution to the eighth inning, but he may be a better option than anyone else at this point and any improvement is good with just over a month to go in the season.
* I won't comment too much on last night's game, as I was unable to finish it due to the sleep deprivation caused by law school interview season. However, watching the Twins offense flounder against Miguel Bastita was frankly embarrassing. They should have been able to produce more run support for Fransisco Liriano against one of baseball's worst starting pitchers. And seeing that Jesse Crain gave up a walk-off home run only increases my own worries about the bullpen. Clearly, there is only one reliable member and its not Crain.
While I am at it, though, I should point out that after a solid start last night, Liriano's ERA dropped to 3.83, giving the Twins a rotation of starters all with ERAs under four. (Baker; 3.74, Perkins; 3.90, Blackburn; 3.78, Slowey 3.74.) In terms of ERA, no one in the group particularly stands out, but having five young starters capable of putting up solid to outstanding numbers can only bode well for the future of the franchise.
Its too bad, then, that the media is largely missing this story as well, as shown by this response to a chat with Jayson Stark to a question by a Twins fan about why the Twins five-man rotation isn't considered amongst the best:
"
Jayson Stark: I hear you, Chris. But I go back to my point about the Phillies. These guys have been unbelievable strike-throwing machines. But pretty much this whole rotation consists of guys who the Twins hope will keep them in the game. And that's not normally a formula for October success. Having Joe Nathan on your team IS a formula for October success, but we're not debating bullpens or whole staffs this week. "
I'll grant that I'm glad Stark recognizes the great Nathan, and generally I like Stark as a writer, especially considering that he actually mentioned VORP in the introduction to his chat, but I'm not sure that I'd consider the rotation a group of starters that you hope will win you a game. Maybe that is the case with guys like Blackburn and Perkins, but Baker, Liriano, and Slowey have legitimately dominated teams this year and should continue to do so. Hopefully this is another story the larger baseball media recognizes soon enough.
Beyond some recent tough losses, recently there has been even more of a sense of annoyance. Annoyance at having to continuously face the onslaught of major media stories about Fransisco Rodriguez's "historical run" at Bobby Thigpen's save record.
It's true that the relative unimportance of this record has already been tackled by many major writers, but it's hard to ignore when the only real story over the weekend seemed to have been Rodriguez's 49th and 50th saves. The most common point to make, and perhaps the most important thing, is that Rodriguez's talent has nothing to do with the production of save opportunities that has allowed him to make a run at the record. A combination of luck, an often mediocre offense, and a great pitching staff outside of K-Rod helped produce the 55 save opportunities that have allowed Rodriguez to make this run.
This brings up several points to consider. One is that the save itself and the save opportunity is usually converted and the statistic itself isn't all that meaningful. The majority of three-run and even two-run leads are saved. Therefore, as a raw number, the amount of saves is not as important as save percentage. Granted, 50/55 save opportunities amounts to around a 91% save percentage, which is very good. However, our own Joe Nathan (92.1%), Joakim Soria (92.3%) and Mariano Rivera (97%) have significantly higher save percentages. What is the difference? Nathan has had 38 save opportunities and Rivera only 33. In fact, Rodriguez has had 16 more save opportunities than anyone else in the majors.
That certainly seems to suggest that Rodriguez's pursuit is not any more impressive than what Brad Lidge has done this year, converting all 31 save opportunities has had for the Phillies. In fact, that arguably not only makes Lidge the better closer, but also the more valuable one. Same goes for Soria, Nathan, and Rivera. All three AL closers listed have WHIPs below 1, with Rivera's 0.72 blowing the competition away. What is Rodriguez's? An ugly 1.27, which is also reflected by his mediocre 62/29 K/BB ratio, or 2.14. Nathan's is an impressive 4.69, but Rivera's in an outerwordly 11.17 or 67/6.
Which once again begs another question. Why aren't fans also discussing what might be Nathan's best relief year, with sub-1.00 ERA currently (and now a 1.13 ERA partially thanks to Nick Punto's infallible defense). And why aren't fans discussing how Rivera, at 38, is also possibly having his best year, with opponents "hitting" .175/.205/.257 this year to go with a 1.53 ERA. Each are having incredible years, but have gone relatively unnoticed because while they convert saves better than Rodriguez, they just don't have that counting stat the media seems so obsessed with. Eventually, fans might lose their affinity for the overrated save, but for now, it is making a lot more news then it should, leaving better stories in the dust.
* Twins fans may have noticed the return of a familiar face to the bullpen via the trade. Eddie Guardado was acquired from the Texas Rangers for minor-league closer Mark Hamburger. (As a fun fact, Hamburger was not drafted, but rather signed through a Twins tryout camp, after displaying a mid-90s fastball.) Guardado is nothing near the All-Star closer the Twins had back in 2002 and 2003, as he only has 28 strikeouts (versus 17 walks) in 49 1/3 innings, which is not too impressive and suggests he's been somewhat lucky, but he also has only given up 38 hits. More importantly, while he is killing lefties (.167/.521 OPS), righties are not knocking him around too badly either (.252/.721).
Guardado was able to quickly help the Twins last night, working a quick, scoreless eighth inning. It will continue to occur to many Twins fans that the front office could have made claims on superior bullpen help, like Chad Bradford, but trading for Guardado while giving up very little is at least a solid move for the club. Guardado doesn't strike me as the solution to the eighth inning, but he may be a better option than anyone else at this point and any improvement is good with just over a month to go in the season.
* I won't comment too much on last night's game, as I was unable to finish it due to the sleep deprivation caused by law school interview season. However, watching the Twins offense flounder against Miguel Bastita was frankly embarrassing. They should have been able to produce more run support for Fransisco Liriano against one of baseball's worst starting pitchers. And seeing that Jesse Crain gave up a walk-off home run only increases my own worries about the bullpen. Clearly, there is only one reliable member and its not Crain.
While I am at it, though, I should point out that after a solid start last night, Liriano's ERA dropped to 3.83, giving the Twins a rotation of starters all with ERAs under four. (Baker; 3.74, Perkins; 3.90, Blackburn; 3.78, Slowey 3.74.) In terms of ERA, no one in the group particularly stands out, but having five young starters capable of putting up solid to outstanding numbers can only bode well for the future of the franchise.
Its too bad, then, that the media is largely missing this story as well, as shown by this response to a chat with Jayson Stark to a question by a Twins fan about why the Twins five-man rotation isn't considered amongst the best:
"
Jayson Stark: I hear you, Chris. But I go back to my point about the Phillies. These guys have been unbelievable strike-throwing machines. But pretty much this whole rotation consists of guys who the Twins hope will keep them in the game. And that's not normally a formula for October success. Having Joe Nathan on your team IS a formula for October success, but we're not debating bullpens or whole staffs this week. "I'll grant that I'm glad Stark recognizes the great Nathan, and generally I like Stark as a writer, especially considering that he actually mentioned VORP in the introduction to his chat, but I'm not sure that I'd consider the rotation a group of starters that you hope will win you a game. Maybe that is the case with guys like Blackburn and Perkins, but Baker, Liriano, and Slowey have legitimately dominated teams this year and should continue to do so. Hopefully this is another story the larger baseball media recognizes soon enough.
Friday, August 01, 2008
Return of the Power?
There was something unusual about the Twins victory last night. In the course of beating the Chicago White Sox 10-6 and taking the series 3-1, the Twins got six of their runs on two big two-out hits. Both Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel had huge, three-run homers, with Kubel's giving the Twins the lead for good in the seventh inning when he took Octavio Dotel deep.
Considering that they came into the game 29th in the majors (above the lowly Giants, who have only 61) with just 73 homers (though that number shot up to 28th after this game), getting two huge blasts like that not only feels like an aberration, but is awfully surprising. Of course, it is not surprising in that Morneau and Kubel hit them, considering they are the only two legitimate home-run threats in the lineup, only that the Twins won the way that they did. This should only give fans appreciation for the importance of not only Morneau's bat in the lineup, but Kubel's power, which can be key to offense's success when considering the void in the lineup of any other power source.
Of course, just discussing the power surge and the general offensive display last night would miss some other important storylines:
* Once again, despite some struggles, Scott Baker showed why he is likely the ace of the this staff last night and more than likely has the best stuff of any starting pitcher on the team. Baker went six innings, gave up five hits, four runs, and three walks, but he also struck out eight batters, showing good life on his fastball and an excellent slider that was getting many Chicago hitters to swing and miss. After last night's start, Baker has an excellent and very impressive 7.85 K/9 rate to go along with a outstanding 89/21 K/BB ratio.
* The Twins, not surprisingly, did not make any moves of the deadline. This may upset some fans, and rightfully so, as they did not pursue any of their targets, be it Brian Roberts or Adrian Beltre, with any lasting speed. However, the Twins appear on the verge of finally making one big and key internal move: La Velle E. Neal III reports that the Twins will likely eat the rest of Livan Hernandez's contract and designate him for assignment very soon so that they can make room in the rotation for Francisco Liriano.
Now to some, this might feel as good as a trade, but the fact remains that the Twins should have made this move earlier to say give them a chance for a sweep against their divisional foe this week and be in command of first place, instead of back a half game. Nonetheless, its a very important move to make and is just as exciting as a good trade. There is no way yet to know how effective Liriano is going to be once the move is actually made, but there is no doubt that he will not put up stats that would put him on pace to give up the most hits in a season in three decades.
* On a final note, the White Sox did make a big move of their own yesterday by competing in the headlines with the Manny Ramirez trade when they dealt two marginal players for Ken Griffey, Jr. Some fans may be worried that getting such a prestigious name as Griffey means that the White Sox will now run off with the division, but that is simply not the case. Griffey sports a .245/.355/.432 line this year with the advantage of playing in the Great American Ballpark. Yes, a .787 OPS is nothing terrible, but it's nothing to get excited about either. Griffey, with his diminishing skill-set, has gained patience recently, but with it, he's lost a lot in average and power. Keep in mind that Nick Swisher is batting .230/.348/.404 and he also has 15 home runs this year.
Yes, Griffey could get hot and do a lot for the White Sox, but he's also 38 years old and might be asked to play center field when he is already a sub-par fielder in right. If he was being brought over to DH, maybe it would be different, but the White Sox already have a good DH in Jim Thome. This deal might sound like a lot to think about, but the White Sox probably didn't improve that much and now they just have a lot of invitees to an ongoing game of musical chairs, especially if they think they are going sit a guy with a $60 million contract in Paul Konerko.
Considering that they came into the game 29th in the majors (above the lowly Giants, who have only 61) with just 73 homers (though that number shot up to 28th after this game), getting two huge blasts like that not only feels like an aberration, but is awfully surprising. Of course, it is not surprising in that Morneau and Kubel hit them, considering they are the only two legitimate home-run threats in the lineup, only that the Twins won the way that they did. This should only give fans appreciation for the importance of not only Morneau's bat in the lineup, but Kubel's power, which can be key to offense's success when considering the void in the lineup of any other power source.
Of course, just discussing the power surge and the general offensive display last night would miss some other important storylines:
* Once again, despite some struggles, Scott Baker showed why he is likely the ace of the this staff last night and more than likely has the best stuff of any starting pitcher on the team. Baker went six innings, gave up five hits, four runs, and three walks, but he also struck out eight batters, showing good life on his fastball and an excellent slider that was getting many Chicago hitters to swing and miss. After last night's start, Baker has an excellent and very impressive 7.85 K/9 rate to go along with a outstanding 89/21 K/BB ratio.
* The Twins, not surprisingly, did not make any moves of the deadline. This may upset some fans, and rightfully so, as they did not pursue any of their targets, be it Brian Roberts or Adrian Beltre, with any lasting speed. However, the Twins appear on the verge of finally making one big and key internal move: La Velle E. Neal III reports that the Twins will likely eat the rest of Livan Hernandez's contract and designate him for assignment very soon so that they can make room in the rotation for Francisco Liriano.
Now to some, this might feel as good as a trade, but the fact remains that the Twins should have made this move earlier to say give them a chance for a sweep against their divisional foe this week and be in command of first place, instead of back a half game. Nonetheless, its a very important move to make and is just as exciting as a good trade. There is no way yet to know how effective Liriano is going to be once the move is actually made, but there is no doubt that he will not put up stats that would put him on pace to give up the most hits in a season in three decades.
* On a final note, the White Sox did make a big move of their own yesterday by competing in the headlines with the Manny Ramirez trade when they dealt two marginal players for Ken Griffey, Jr. Some fans may be worried that getting such a prestigious name as Griffey means that the White Sox will now run off with the division, but that is simply not the case. Griffey sports a .245/.355/.432 line this year with the advantage of playing in the Great American Ballpark. Yes, a .787 OPS is nothing terrible, but it's nothing to get excited about either. Griffey, with his diminishing skill-set, has gained patience recently, but with it, he's lost a lot in average and power. Keep in mind that Nick Swisher is batting .230/.348/.404 and he also has 15 home runs this year.
Yes, Griffey could get hot and do a lot for the White Sox, but he's also 38 years old and might be asked to play center field when he is already a sub-par fielder in right. If he was being brought over to DH, maybe it would be different, but the White Sox already have a good DH in Jim Thome. This deal might sound like a lot to think about, but the White Sox probably didn't improve that much and now they just have a lot of invitees to an ongoing game of musical chairs, especially if they think they are going sit a guy with a $60 million contract in Paul Konerko.
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