Monday, August 02, 2010

Capps-Sized?

I've been in Denver for the past four days, so I had to track this season's trade deadline drama from afar. That means I had only an outside glimpse of the local reactions to the Twins' big move, which involved sending prized catching prospect Wilson Ramos to the Nationals in exchange for reliever Matt Capps.

Amongst my like-minded and esteemed blogging brethren, the response to the trade was overwhelmingly negative. Gleeman hated it. Same for the Geek. Parker ripped it. Even mild-mannered Seth was critical of the move. Sentiment ranged from disappointment to flat-out disgust.

Yet, in spite of all the many reasonable arguments that I read deriding the trade, I just couldn't bring myself to truly dislike it. I think the widespread backlash to this deal is extremely hyperbolic. The Twins shored up an area that could potentially become problematic over the final two months of the season, and in order to do so they had to part with an asset. The value of that asset is the subject of some debate.

If there's one thing this swap tells me, it's that Wilson Ramos was being wildly overrated as a prospect by the vast majority of Twins fans. In all honesty, this doesn't surprise me, because it's something I had been thinking about more and more over the past few weeks. Ramos is a nice prospect, to be sure, but would any team really be willing to part with an established star player for a guy who is getting utterly dominated at Triple-A?

Granted, Ramos is only 22 years old and he's taking his first stab at the highest level of the minors. But he hasn't hit this year. After narrowly missing a spot on the Twins roster out of spring training, Ramos got his season off to a terrible start in Rochester and he hasn't shown a whole lot of improvement over the course of the season. This is a fact that far too many people seemed content to overlook, enamored with his shiny scouting reports and impressive build.

For all his power potential, Ramos has hit only five home runs this season. In fact, he's only hit 36 of them in five minor-league seasons. During that span, he's also drawn only 86 walks. Undoubtedly, a large part of the reason that Ramos' innate power has not manifested in games relates to his terrible plate discipline, an issue that has been clearly present this year and has helped contribute to a .241 average and a ghastly .277 on-base percentage.

Ramos' name arose in trade rumors opposite Cliff Lee, Dan Haren and other prominent stars. There is little doubt that the Twins tried heavily to shop their top catching prospect, since moving Ramos was all but a foregone conclusion. I wrote as much back in early May, when the Ramos hype machine was at its peak in the aftermath of a spectacular major-league debut. While there's no denying that the Venezuelan catcher has the potential to become a very good big-league contributor, rebuilding teams like the Mariners and Diamondbacks don't want to trade away their top trade piece for a player who is as much of a gamble as he is.

Jesus Montero, whom the Yankees reportedly used to outbid the Twins for Lee (though they themselves were subsequently outbid by the Rangers and Justin Smoak), currently owns an .809 OPS in Triple-A. Last year, he posted a .951 OPS between Single-A and Double-A. Ramos, whose OPS sits at .619 this season, hasn't posted a figure above .783 in a full season (although he did put up an .835 OPS in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign) and his career mark sits at .757. He's been young for every level, which is why Ramos is rightfully regarded as a very good prospect, but there are holes in the his swing that the kid simply hasn't been able to figure out. Montero is highly regarded not only because of his talent and youth -- he's almost two years younger than Ramos -- but also because he's translated his skills into impressive on-field results. That's what teams want in a big deadline deal. It's what Ramos doesn't have.

Ramos would only languish in the Twins' organization, whether being held in Triple-A in the hopes that improved performance would boost his stagnating trade value or being used as Joe Mauer's major-league back-up. The Twins had to trade their top catching prospect because they are making their push right now, with a championship-caliber roster assembled. After dangling Ramos all around in the weeks leading up to the deadline, Capps was the player that Bill Smith judged to be an appropriate value for Ramos. I don't doubt that Smith tried to turn Ramos into a better player than Capps, I just don't think he could.

Without question, the addition of Capps improves the Twins' bullpen. He's a better reliever than Jon Rauch, whom he'll be replacing at the back end. Rauch has performed admirably this year, converting 21 of 25 save opportunities while posting a 3.05 ERA. But he'd shown weakness in recent weeks, with his stellar control display early in the season trending back toward his mediocre career norm, and a 5.40 ERA and .361 opponents' batting average in July were doing nothing to inspire the Twins' confidence in their interim closer. This team has World Series aspirations and they wanted a more legitimate option taking care of the ninth inning.

Capps might be nine inches shorter than Rauch, but he is nonetheless an imposing presence on the mound. Weighing in at 245 lbs, the right-hander hurls a fastball that averages about 94 mph, several ticks faster than Rauch's offering. Whereas Rauch, who is four years Capps' senior, owns a relatively unimpressive 3.73 career ERA and 1.24 WHIP, Capps' career marks stand at 3.45 and and 1.19 in those categories, and this in spite of a down year in 2009 that has all the signs of a fluke. Capps possesses elite command, misses more bats and deserves more trust in high-leverage situations.

His addition also has a positive ripple effect on the Twins' bullpen. It pushes Rauch down into a set-up role he's better suited for, and eliminates Nick Blackburn -- who was of little use as a relief arm -- from occupying a roster spot. The Twins' once teetering bullpen now has the looks of a solid strength. Its right-handed options (Capps, Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Anthony Slama) are all well above average and the Jose Mijares/Ron Mahay combo stands as a fine defense against lefties. Perhaps most importantly, Capps is under team control for next season, which will make the looming free agent departures of Rauch and Guerrier far more palatable as Joe Nathan attempts his comeback from Tommy John surgery.

You'll notice I've gone through this entire post defending the trade without referring to two hot phrases that often pop up in tirades against the acquisition of Capps: his status as an established closer and his standing as a National League All-Star. To be clear, I don't doubt that both of these factors caused the Twins to overvalue Capps to some degree. But the front office is hardly delusional for thinking he makes their bullpen better, and with the rotation seemingly rounding into shape while the offense continues to churn out runs, the relief corps looked to be the only aspect of this team deserving of a significant external upgrade.

The Twins might have overpaid for an asset in Capps. But they didn't overpay to the degree that a lot of people seem to think, and in my opinion the organization should be lauded for making a bold move in their push to bring home a World Series title in their first season at Target Field. Ramos might turn into a very good player and he might not, but whatever his outcome it wasn't going to be realized as a Minnesota Twin. He had no future here with Mauer entrenched, and Smith moved his valued trade piece for what he could to give a little additional help to the excellent roster he's assembled this year for the stretch run. The Twins made a play for now -- how often have we been able to say that so confidently in the past? We haven't seen this type of aggression before and I personally like it.

The Twins are building steam and have won eight straight. With Capps added to the roster, a bullpen meltdown becomes less of a threat to derail their momentum as they ease back into a more difficult stretch of the schedule. By the time the playoffs roll around this year and onward into 2011, I anticipate that people will be happy Capps is around. I don't think they'll miss Ramos.

* I do realize, by the way, that I tweeted only a couple days before the trade that I wouldn't deal Ramos for Capps. Call it a change of heart. After looking at all the facts, I just can't criticize the Twins for making this move, even if it doesn't initially strike me as a great deal.

49 comments:

Kevin said...

Thanks, Nick. It's weird for me when I disagree with Aaron Gleeman, so I'm glad I had some support.

Dave Nelson said...

This is garbage. Ramos being overvalued by locals is probably true, but if capps is all the twins could get back they should have just made him their back up catcher. Capps is a mediocre RHP, who has a relatively poor k rate, is high contact, and whose only real tool is elite control. This twins certainly overvalued their acquisition because hes a reliever, a closer and an allstar. The twins overpaid for an additional year of team control because capps is going to be paid 6 million next year, which is significantly more than hes worth. Capps has a WAR of .7 so far this year which puts him on pace for a WAR of 1.2 or so this year. If he duplicates that number next year he will be worth 1.6 WAR to the twins for 8 mil + wilson ramos. Theres just not enough value there to make this deal anything but terrible. Ramos replacing butera, the worst player in baseball, could probably make the difference between capps and that twins best minor league releif option currently in 2 years playing as a backup. Plus Ramos would be cheap and still have upside. The twins made this deal for all the wrong reasons. Just because locals overvalued ramos doesnt change the fact that capps is average and a low end closer whose not particularly cheap.

Jesse said...

I wasn't nearly as upset by the trade as others, either. And I was surprised by the number of people who actually thought the same thing. 77 comments and most people understood the positive spin on it.

For me, sure, Ramos was probably over-valued by the fanbase a little bit. But more than anything this is a trade for this year, and like you said, the knock-on effect it has on the rest of the bullpen makes a huge difference.

That, and Capps immediately becomes the bullpen's best relief pitcher.

Unknown said...

Thanks, Nick--what you wrote needed saying.

And Jesse, yes, this trade is about this year--but even more so, about next year. Who's to say Nathan will be ready to go from the start--or ever again be as dominant as he was? Having Capps under club control for 2011 means the Twins have a solid fall-back option as closer should Nathan falter. Bill Smith himself acknowledged that, had Capps been a free agent this offseason, he wouldn't have done the deal.

Ed Bast said...

Yeah I don't understand the notion that this trade is about "this year" or "it shows that the Twins are going for it." No, this is certainly a trade for next year. If the Twins were serious about this year they would have acquired a starting pitching to go with Pavano/Liriano in the playoffs vs. either the Yanks or Rays, both of whom have far superior rotations than the Twins.

Note to Twins fans: merely winning the division this year and faltering in the playoffs will be a giant failure for a club with this talent. IT IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO ONLY WIN THE DIVISION AGAIN.

This deal reeks of the front office making any move just to appease the fan base, and getting rid of a player who had no value to the organization. The move wouldn't have been done if Capps wasn't signed for 2011, so it's a deal for next year.

For those who think this deal is about this year: Matt Capps isn't going to help when Baker/Slowey/Duensing puts the club in a 6-0 hole in Game 3 of the ALDS.

Parker said...

"Parker ripped it"? While I called the move into questions, I still think I was fairly neutral about it. Especially in context of Bonnes's piece.

Nick N. said...

"Parker ripped it"? While I called the move into questions, I still think I was fairly neutral about it. Especially in context of Bonnes's piece.

I dunno Parker, you did compare the move to drunkenly leaping in a pool with a lampshade on your head.

Parker said...

To be fair, that was more in response to his initial quote, not the move itself. (Also, I did not indicate what sort of toxins said person would be on when jumping into the pool). I'm sure the majority of Strib commentors latched on to that statement but if you re-read it, I didn't really offer any critical marks, just noting that they did trade their perceived "best trading chip" (no matter what his value was) for a closer whose results mirrored Jon Rauch.

I did admit that a reliever was a need and Ramos's value had fallen. I did note that Capps has a history of injury for the innings compiled early in his career which certainly could play a role since his acquisition was meant for 2011 too. After that, I concluded that the results of Smith's aggressiveness is still yet to be seen. I guess everyone was influenced by the mental image of Smith jumping into a pool with a lampshade on his head.

Nick N. said...

Parker, what have I told you about ruining the narratives I'm trying to build?

On the road with.... said...

While I'm not a huge fan of trading Ramos for a reliever, this trade makes the Twins better heading into the playoff push. The trade has other benefits as well. Crain, Guerrier, and Rauch are all due to become free agents. Capps can take one of their places in the bullpen. Rauch as a set-up guy will not reach type A status that he might have reached as a closer. I don't think any team is giving up a first round pick for Rauch, but now the Twins can offer Rauch arbitration and either keep Rauch, or let him go for a draft pick compensation. Capps will also be worth a draft pick at the end of 2011, perhaps 2. This trade made the Twins stronger in 2010 and 2011. They traded a player who probably will not contribute meaningfully until 2012. I can't hate this trade.

Matt said...

The national writers are somewhat mixed but generally favor the "Twins lose" or "Twins panicked" on this one. So, we'll just have to wait and see how Cappy (can we nickname him that?) does against AL hitters. Maybe he'll get his first shot at Longoria/Crawford/Pena/Zobrist? Fare well, Cappy, and you're the hero for the week but fair poorly, and be forever hated.
Welcome to MN, Cappy, home of the fair weather fans.

JimCrikket said...

You can never go wrong coming down on the other side of what the "national media" believes to be true. For that reason, alone, I'm feeling much better about this trade. I even recall reading one of those overpaid geniuses criticize the Twins for trading Ramos for 2 months of Capps, since the Twins won't be able to afford to keep him in 2011.

I tend to think the Twins were seeing Ramos as unlikely to improve his value over the offseason and when they couldn't get one of the starting pitchers they wanted, made the best deal they could to help the team this year AND next (those aren't mutually exclusive, Ed). Like most trades, we'll have to wait to determine whether it turns out to be a good one or not.

CA said...

The backlash to the trade is not because Capps is a bad player, but because of the opportunity cost in using Ramos on a reliver. Ramos isn't an elite prospect, but he's still a 22-year-old catcher who's a good defender and has shown at least some potential to hit the ball. He's not going to land a Cliff Lee-type starter, but he's still a fairly valuable asset. Comparisons to Montero are limited because Montero is not a good defensive catcher, to the point that he's a 1B/DH candidate.

Capps certainly isn't a terrible pitcher. Still, relative to the talent he brings, he'll be expensive next year. Relievers are relatively fungible and the Twins already have several options there, so it's somewhat disappointing that the asset that was Ramos was used on one. Especially when you consider that the Yankees got Kerry Wood (who, granted, is worse than Capps) and cash for a PTBNL.

Corky said...

Thanks for the honest assessment, Nick, and I pretty much agree with you. I think too many people overreacted a bit (and I admit my initial impressions were quite literally "wtf??") but after thinking about it for a day or two and seeing other people's comments, I feel pretty good about the trade. Perhaps we overpaid a little, but not by a lot. Like all trades, time will determine who "won".

thanatoschristou said...

The most disappointing thing about this trade for me was what little was actuall given up for the Angels to acquire Haren. Ramos is a higher rated prospect than what the Dbacks got for Haren. Compare a chance of Haren versus a top 15 closer makes this trade look a little worse.

Office of Teaching & Learning said...

David touched on it, but I think the other thing people might be forgetting is that if Nathan is able to fully rebound next season, the Twins will have two All-Star closers on their roster and likely be able to trade one of them -- possibly for a prospect as promising as Ramos at a position we actually need to fill.

Anonymous said...

Capps is only an all star closer because every team has to be represented in the all star games and is a closer because hes only played on terrible teams. Capps is an average reliever, not close to elite.

Nick N. said...

Will people stop calling Capps an "average reliever" please? No, he's not elite, but he's well above average. There's no need to exaggerate in order to make your points.

Ed Bast said...

Jim,

Of course the deal doesn't hurt the club this year, not at all. I just think they failed to address their most glaring need for this year. Without another quality starter, they aren't going to win a playoff series for about the 10th year in a row.

Maybe they'll swing something through the waiver wire, who knows. So I'll have to reserve judgment for a little while, but right now I'm too disappointed in what they didn't do to get excited about Matt Capps.

Mucho Maas said...

Nick, You curiously failed to go in-depth into stats to evaluate Capps here and your claim that he's "above average." Twins Geek looked at the numbers, if Capps is above average, so are Guerrier, Crain, and Rausch. In other words. Right handed bullpen pitching was already "above average" for the team. So the twins traded their top prospect for a guy they already had 3 times over.

It's funny how the sabermatricians will dig up the most obscure stats to back up some farfetched agrument, but when it comes down something else they'll give you ERA as a meaningful stat for a reliever.

Love the blog tho, just dont agree on this one!!!

Nick N. said...

Without another quality starter, they aren't going to win a playoff series for about the 10th year in a row.

I'd just like to point out that it wasn't starting pitching that cost the Twins in the ALDS against the Yankees last year. It was offense and bullpen. And last year the Twins didn't have a single starter as good as this season's versions of Liriano or Pavano.

Notion that the Twins can't win in the playoffs with their current rotation is, again, hyperbolic. They have two of the American League's best starters heading their rotation. Not many clubs have three front-line starters.

Nick N. said...

It's funny how the sabermatricians will dig up the most obscure stats to back up some farfetched agrument, but when it comes down something else they'll give you ERA as a meaningful stat for a reliever.

I don't really consider myself a sabermetrician since I only dabble in the advanced statistics and rarely build arguments around them. But I think I did point out some numbers that make Capps appealing. He instantly becomes the best strikeout pitcher in the Twins' bullpen outside of Jesse Crain and possesses a better walk rate than any of the team's righty relievers.

The Twins have a bullpen built around somewhat hittable but generally effective strike-throwing relievers and that formula has worked up to this point. While that mold isn't particularly exciting, Capps is a better version of that model than anyone the Twins currently have. He's not a huge, star-caliber upgrade but he is another good reliever to add to the bullpen at the expense of a bad one. That's an upgrade. And having Capps under control for next year will undoubtedly turn out to be one of the most crucial aspects of this trade.

Ed Bast said...

Nick,

1. Last year Brian Duensing started Game 1 in the Bronx. The Twins lost 7-2.
2. Last year Pavano started Game 3 and lost. He was outpitched by Pettite.
3. Both the Yankees and the Rays have 3 front line starters.
4. Why would last year have an impact on this year's trading deadline?


Look, I love the optimism. But if you really think Liriano/Pavano/Slowey-Baker-Duensing is going to beat CC/Pettite/Hughes/etc or Price/Garza/Sheilds/Neimann, well, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree there.

On the road with.... said...

CC/Pettite/Hughes? Hughes will be in the pen by then due to the Yankees keeping his innings down, it will be Vazquez/Burnett. I'll take Liriano as an ace over CC, and the Twins top 3 over the Yankees 3 without/Hughes. I'd even take Slowey over Vazquez/Burnett. If the Twins lost to the Yankees, it would be due to their superior lineup not their starters.

Nick N. said...

Ed, Duensing started Game 1 because of crazy circumstances. There's no way a team can plan around a crazy finish and a 163rd game that forces them to start their fifth starter in the first game of the playoffs. And if you think Pavano was at fault in any way for the team's Game 3 loss, you're out of your mind.

No, the past does not dictate the future. But the notion that the Twins can't win a playoff series with their current rotation is silly and you don't need to look back any further than last autumn to see why.

cy1time said...

To hear people talk of Ramos' offensive skills, I'd have expected a lot more than 36 homers and 86 walks. I know the bullpen looks a lot better with Capps in it.

Ed Bast said...

You'd take Liriano, who has struggled in the past with shall we say "mental toughness", going into the Bronx and beating Sabbathia? Slowey over Burnett? Twins top 3 over Yanks top 3?

Talk about hyperbolic....

Anonymous said...

Capps is a better pinch hitter than Punto :)

I can't name a closer who came from Triple A and did not spend a few years learning the closer role in the Majors. Capps played for bad teams, Pit and Wash. He learned to pitch with bad defenses behind him. Twins made a great move here, you are getting a Closer just ready to hit his prime pitching age. He fits perfect into Twins Baseball - throw strikes, and play great defense. Now he can take the mound with a different approach.

Also Twins do an exceptional job of developing and managing talent. Maybe Ramos reached some limits within their system and the Twins wanted to max value for him while they could.

This trade puts the Twins in a far better position with Capps for the next few seasons than Ramos still learning major league ball for the next 3 - 5.

Ed Bast said...

Nick,

I don't understand. You say, for proof that the Twins can win in the playoffs with their current rotation, look to last year. Last year they were swept 3-0. Thank you for reinforcing my point.

On the road with.... said...

All the hyperbole on the starters was written here. 2010#s don't take into account past failures.

http://ontheroadwithshawn.blogspot.com/2010/07/trade-deadline-how-do-starters-stack-up.html

Nick N. said...

Last year they were swept 3-0. Thank you for reinforcing my point.

They got excellent, excellent starting pitching in two of those three games. I don't see how your point is reinforced in any way.

They lost Game 2, in part, because their closer (who was a whole lot better than Jon Rauch, mind you) blew a save. They lost Game 3 because they didn't score runs.

Anonymous said...

This is a very good post and was similar to my line of thinking about this. I think this is a wash. PS- you should get a blackberry/iphone app!

Anonymous said...

"Will people stop calling Capps an "average reliever" please? " Matt Capps is above average in the sense that hes better than the median relief pitcher in baseball. I meant average more colloquially than literally. I believe Capps so be solid or good and not very good, great, elite ect. Capps ranks 44th in xFIP amongst qualified relief pitchers. He has a WAR of .7 this season, he's never had a WAR higher than 1.6. He's having his best season this year largely because his GB% is significantly higher than its ever been. Whether that a skill hes acquired or if we might see that regress some is difficult to say. Capps is above average and improves the twins, but i dont think hes a particularly good reliever or improves the twins very much. No way he improves the twins a full win.

Ed Bast said...

Nick,

You know who else got "excellent, excellent starting pitching" it that series? The Yankees.

It's all good and well to say, Well, gee, the starters didn't all-out lose games for us, so that's good.

But it would be nice to have one of our starters flat out WIN a game for us, perhaps on a day we didn't have all our bats going, or the bullpen was tired.

Anonymous said...

Ramos is over valued by Twins fans, most of whom don't realize that his value has dropped considerably this season. His poor plate discipline and inability to hit off-speed pitches is being exposed in AAA in a way it couldn't be at other levels. He's still a great prospect but I just don't think most teams were looking at him as a top 100, despite his preseason ranking in many publications.

Another thing you always see with trades is how people always have to figure out who made out the best in the deal. It is as if there always has to be a winner and a loser. I think both teams made out well. The Nats gave up a really good reliever that was going to leave after another year to get a guy they can help build with. The Twins have taken a great step towards avoiding a potential bullpen meltdown by giving up a player who's only value to the org was as a trade chip.

Remember when the Twins traded one year of Pierzinski's contract for Liriano, Boof, Mauer (sort of), and some other dude? Twins fans to this day like to talk about how amazing of a move this was for us and how we got way more value.

Add up the WAR's of all players and yes you can argue we made out like banshees. But also remember that the Sox won the freakin' World Series and AJ was a big part of it. Twins weren't going to win it all that year and if we win it with Liriano and Mauer then you'd argue the trade led to both teams getting a ring.

It is possible for both teams to come out ahead in a trade. Hell, that is what they both think going in. We win the World Series this year and Ramos is an all-star catcher in 4 years then both organizations can laugh all the way to the bank!

Nick N. said...

Sometimes I don't understand why people take the time to write up a lengthy, thoughtful comment like the one directly above, and then post it under the "Anonymous" identity. Great comment, take credit for it!!

Ed Bast said...

Nick sorry this has gone off topic, perhaps we can revisit after the waiver deadline is passed?

Matt said...

As I said above about fair weather fans...
We saw Ramos go 4-4 or 8-8 or whatever when called up. Then, as major league teams do, they adjusted and threw breaking balls out of the zone, exposing his horrible plate discipline. AAA teams saw this and did the same thing. Still, everyone was thinking he was the 2nd coming of Mike Piazza (power hitting catcher) with a stronger arm. I'd bet my paycheck that if he stayed up in the bigs long enough to get exposed up here and fall below the mendoza line, Twins fans would be calling for Bill Smith and Gardy's ouster for not "sending the kid back down to learn by playing more."
Let's just wait and see what Cappy can do before we all jump on Smith for this move (like national and local writers have already done). If he really throws in the mid-90s, the Twins have added much needed power to the bullpen and we don't have to trust Crain to close which was bound to happen as Rauch has faltered.

fenring said...

The A.J. trade wasn't good for both teams. I think the Giants dumped him after one year. They probably think it was the worst trade ever made by anyone. That comment was thoughtful except for the part about the facts.

Nick N. said...

The A.J. trade might not have been a very good example (especially since Pierzynski was traded to the Giants, not the White Sox) but I think the point about people feeling the need to assign a "winner" and "loser" to every trade is very valid.

Matt said...

Blackburn 5.2 inning 1 earned run
Pavano 7 innings 2 earned run 9 strike outs.

If an offense can't supply more support than that, your going to lose 90% of games. In both those games what finally either lost the game or put it out of reach was the bullpen.

Steve L. said...

Just wanted to point out to the guy who said this:

"The most disappointing thing about this trade for me was what little was actuall given up for the Angels to acquire Haren. Ramos is a higher rated prospect than what the Dbacks got for Haren. Compare a chance of Haren versus a top 15 closer makes this trade look a little worse."

That there is a "Player To Be Named Later" in that trade as well. Which if all indications I've heard are true, will be the Angels' 2009 1st Round pick and Left-Handed Starting Pitcher Tyler Skaggs (who is pitching will in the Midwest League this year, and was #8 on the Angels Baseball America prospect list to start the year). So to say "Ramos is a higher rated prospect than what the Dbacks got for Haren" is not accurate. I just hate that there have been people using this argument to bash the Capps trade when its not an actually valid argument to make.

Bgrant said...

Ramos did not wait long for his first HR with the Nats AAA team (yesterday). Looks like the Nats expect him to be their starting receiver next season, and that means we can get a good idea of how smart/stupid this trade was very quickly.

Personally I think anytime you can get an above average NL reliever for your teams 2nd best prospect you just have to go for it. Teams like the Yankees and Twins can make these sort of high risk deals because if it backfires on them they can simply cover their error by signing a whack of free agents. Meanwhile, the lower payroll clubs are forced to develop star players from within in order to compete on the unfair financial playing field.

Anonymous said...

I cant think of a worse example of a win win trade than the AJ trade. That trade for the giants is one of the worst trades in mlb histroy. You dont need to add up WAR to know that the giants were crushed in that trade. If the white sox would have been the people making the trade it still would be a terrible trade because nathan was more valuable than pierzynski the year they were traded and has been since.

fenring said...

"I think the point about people feeling the need to assign a "winner" and "loser" to every trade is very valid."
A used car salesman would say the same thing about your trade-in.

Sebastian said...

To add to Steve's point about the Haren trade being a BS comparison in regards to this trade is the fact that Haren had a no-trade clause and had to waive it to go to the Angels. He grew up 30 miles from the stadium and was a no brainer to go to LA. Who knows if he would have even approved a Twins trade.

Russ said...

I think that this trade is pretty good for the Twins. The Twins are already overloaded at catcher with Mauer, Morales, and Butera Plus don't forget that Joe Nathan is almost 36. If Nathan even makes a full recovery, time is not on his side. Maybe Capps isn't the answer, but at least he can be the closer until Slama or Waldrop is ready.

JimCrikket said...

Steve L (and all), it's not just conjecture that Tyler Skaggs may be the Angels' PTBNL in the Haren deal. It's fact. I'm in Cedar Rapids, where he's been playing for the Angels' A-ball affiliate and he's already been told by the Angels that he's the PTBNL.

He's been told not to pitch in games, not to lift weights, not to throw bullpens, in fact not to do anything but throw long toss and run. He was signed by the Angels Aug 7 last year and on Aug 7 this year he will officially be announced as the PTBNL in the Haren deal.

He's also the real deal. I've seen a lot of guys come through CR over the years and he, along with Mike Trout this year, are as close to 'can't miss' (absent injury) MLB ballplayers as I've seen in a long time.

The Angels definitely gave up more than people have been writing about.

Anonymous said...

That's the longest article in history about matt capps.

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