End of the Delmon Era

Prior to the 2008 season, the Twins traded their top young starting pitcher and their starting shortstop to the Rays for Delmon Young, hoping he'd prove to be a long-term fix for their perpetual right-handed power shortage.

In 497 games over the next four years, he'd hit .287/.324/.429 with 47 home runs. That disappointingly mediocre offensive production, in conjunction with his abysmal defense in left field, made him a liability overall during his time in Minnesota.

While he's shown flashes of transforming into the premier power hitter that his minor-league track record and pedigree suggested possible, Young's horrendous plate discipline, lack of athleticism and inability (or unwillingness) to make adjustments prevented him from permanently turning the corner.

He was amidst his worst season yet when the Twins finally made the decision yesterday to cut the cord, dealing the troubled outfielder to Detroit in exchange for Single-A pitcher Cole Nelson and a player to be named later.

The return might not be terribly exciting, but the fact that the Twins were willing to deal him within the division tells you something about what they thought of him, and the fact that Young went unclaimed on waivers all the way up until the first-place Tigers tells you something about what the league thought of him.

I'd guess that when the Twins hung onto Young at the non-waiver deadline they were hoping his bat would come alive and aid their comeback effort, but with the team promptly dropping out of contention here in August, dumping the fledgling outfielder was essentially a no-brainer. There would be no way to justify tendering him a contract during the offseason and paying him around $6 million in arbitration after the year he's had. The Twins are better off putting that money toward free agency or re-signing Michael Cuddyer/Jason Kubel.

The door is now open for Ben Revere to play regularly for the rest of the season, which should give the Twins a better idea of how he'll factor into their 2012 plans. Meanwhile, Young's salary is off the books and the Twins have added a somewhat intriguing arm in Nelson, who could develop into a quality hard-throwing lefty reliever.

At 25, Young still has the potential to be more than he currently is, but it's been clear to me for some time that he was never going to reach that potential here. I wish him the best, but I'm not sorry to go see him go and I'm not particularly worried that dealing him will come back to haunt the Twins in the long run.

Certainly not as much as dealing for him in the first place did.

Power Infusion

In 89 games this year, the Twins have hit 54 home runs. Among AL teams, only the Athletics, with 50, have hit fewer. Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays has hit 31 on his own.

If they maintain their pace through the rest of the season, the Twins won't even reach 100 home runs as a team; it would be their first time failing to reach triple-digits in a full season since 1980. No team has made the playoffs while hitting fewer than 100 homers since the '88 Dodgers (who, ironically, would see Kirk Gibson hit one of the most famous home runs of all time in the World Series).

Fortunately, there are a number of reasons to believe that the Twins will beat their current 98-homer projection handily. Two of those reasons just rejoined the roster after Sunday's game.

When the All-Star break ends, the Twins will be carrying Delmon Young -- returning from a sprained ankle -- and Trevor Plouffe -- returning after terrorizing Triple-A for several weeks -- in place of Rene Tosoni and Rene Rivera.

Young had hit only two home runs in 217 plate appearances when he landed on the disabled list after an awkward collision with the outfield wall in Milwaukee, but he blasted 21 last year and is known as a player whose bat picks up as the season goes on.

His abysmal production this year after seemingly beginning to realize his immense power potential in 2010 has been baffling, but something clearly hasn't been right with the left fielder. Whatever it is, hopefully it was remedied along with his ankle during this latest DL stint. Young did homer twice during a nine-game rehab assignment in Ft. Myers, which is a good sign.

Meanwhile, Plouffe leads the organization in home runs by a wide margin this year with 18.  Michael Cuddyer, who is pacing the Twins in gopher balls and appeared in last night's All Star Game, has hit 13.

Plouffe has already rocketed past his previous career-best homer total of 15, which he set last year. Granted, he's been spending his fourth season in Triple-A, so it's not clear how much stock can be put into this shocking power outburst, but the former first-round pick did go deep three times while posting an impressive ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .183 in 18 games with the Twins back in May.

There are no guarantees with either of these players, but if Young can turn things around and Plouffe can just continue to do what he's been doing, they will add a serious infusion of power to this roster, which would go a long way toward bettering the Twins' slim postseason odds.

"Just Leave Delmon Alone"

All season long, Delmon Young has been costing the Twins runs with his bat and with his glove. As we enter the middle of June, the outfielder is batting .219/.250/.271 and has fewer extra-base hits than Drew Butera. His defense in left field has been reprehensible, as another muffed play that reeked of poor effort led to the decisive run in Tuesday night's loss.

Yet, for some reason, Ron Gardenhire has been hugely reluctant to mess with Young's routine in any way. The manager's decision to use noodle-armed Ben Revere in right field while sticking with Young in left prior to Denard Span's injury flew in the face of sheer logic, but Gardy provided the following rationalization:

"Not to mess with Delmon more than anything else,'' Gardenhire said of his reason for leaving Young in left. "He's got his hands full in left, so we'll keep him working out there and not trying to mess with his mind any more. We're trying to get him hitting. I think if you start switching him in the outfield, he's got something else he's got to worry about. So just leave Delmon alone."

OK, so what about using Young at designated hitter, so he can focus completely on hitting and stop sabotaging the team's pitchers?

Nope.

"Delmon's not really too excited about DH-ing," Gardenhire said. "He's been working really hard in the outfield, trying to get better. He feels a lot more comfortable playing, and I respect that."

Despite the fact that he's literally been one of the worst players in all of baseball this year, Young continues to not only start every day, but hit fifth in the lineup and dictate where he plays in the field.

If Young had a long track record of success, or was showing gradual improvement, or even if he was considered a staple in the clubhouse, I might understand the manager's tact. None of these things are true. Why is he being coddled while Trevor Plouffe is being demoted after making bad throws and Danny Valencia is being benched for multiple games when his bat goes cold?

This doesn't qualify as a season-opening slump anymore. We're coming up on the halfway point in the season and Young's OPS continues to hover around .500, which is staggeringly bad for a plodding corner outfielder.

Gardenhire needs to start worrying less about disrupting the rhythm of a player who is currently amidst the worst slump of his entire career, and more about the overall well-being of this Twins team, which is trying desperately to scrape its way back into contention.

If Young has so much on his mind, perhaps some time off from playing (or, as I've suggested, a change of scenery) would be the best course of action. Leaving Delmon alone has done a lot more harm than good.

Dead Weight

Yesterday, I wrote about the early struggles of Justin Morneau. On cue, the first baseman popped off for two home runs agains the Tigers last night, doubling his season total.

Figuring I'd try and run this string out, I asked Twitter which struggling player they wanted me to write about today. The most popular answers were "bullpen" and "everyone," but among individual players the name I saw most was Delmon Young.

OK, fine, I'll write about Young. But I won't enjoy it. I'm bored with him. Can't bring myself to care about him anymore.

He lopes around apathetically in the outfield. He was a bad defender when he actually seemed to care; now he's basically unplayable out there (though Ron Gardenhire continues to trot him out daily anyway).

At the plate, Young seems similarly disinterested. Despite being a 25-year-old fresh off a breakout season, he has inexplicably turned into one of the league's worst hitters. A third of the way through through the campaign, Young has hit one home run, driven in 11, and posted a lower OPS than such sluggers as Alexi Casilla, Luke Hughes and Rene Rivera.

He's striking out once every five at-bats, and when he puts the ball in play it's typically on a weak, defensive swing early in the count. The fire that burned within Young last year, when he hit 21 homers and drove in 112 runs, has not been seen since.

On top of the lackadaisical performance, there's the external drama that habitually follows him around. Young wasted a spot on the 25-man roster for over a week in April while holding himself out of the lineup with an oblique injury, then when he was finally allegedly ready to play, he said he couldn't get loose on a cold night. The Twins immediately moved him to the DL, where he remained for almost two weeks beyond being eligible to return. What?

Seems clear we didn't get the whole story there, but whatever. I don't care anymore. Young has made himself about as unlikable as possible to fans and media members with his abrasively unpleasant personality, and now that his level of play has followed suit there's just not much reason to want him around.

I know his value is about as low as can get, but I'd still like to see the Twins move him and give him a change of scenery. Let Ben Revere play the rest of the season in left. He's got a much better shot at playing into the team's future plans, and he actually plays like he wants to be out there.

That's what fans pay to see.

Position Analysis: Left Field

Likely Starter: Delmon Young

Jed Jacobsohn, Getty

Potential Backups: Jason Repko, Ben Revere, Jason Kubel

With circumstances being what they are, it's difficult to maintain a completely positive outlook on most of the Twins' key players this year without inserting rather significant caveats.

"Joe Mauer could return to MVP form this year if the knee which bothered him throughout much of last season and into this spring is at full strength."

"Francisco Liriano could be a Cy Young contender if he can overcome the mental hurdles which have plagued him."

"Justin Morneau could have a dramatic impact in the middle of the Twins' lineup if he can keep his concussion symptoms at bay."

And so forth.

With that being said, one player I'm unabashedly optimistic about this season is Delmon Young. Unlike the majority of core hitters who suffered through disappointing and/or injury-riddled seasons in 2010, Young finally broke through with a career year, tallying 21 homers and 112 RBI while besting his lifetime OPS by nearly 100 points. At age 25, he's entering his fifth full big-league season and there's little reason to think he won't be able to build on that success.

I've not been one of Young's biggest proponents over his first few years in Minnesota. That's not because I doubted his talent or ability, but because he simply wasn't a very valuable player. In each of his first three big-league seasons (including '07 with the Rays), Young was essentially the same player -- a guy who could post a solid batting average but wouldn't supplement it with much in the way of patience, power or defensive aptitude.

In his breakout 2010 campaign, Young continued to avoid walks like the plague, drawing only 28 in 613 plate appearances, but he made substantive improvements in other areas, most notably contact (he struck out in only 13 percent of his plate appearances, compared to 22 percent in '09) and power (his 68 extra-base hits nearly matched his total of 72 from his first two seasons with the Twins).

While his approach at the plate wasn't always picture perfect (and it likely never will be), Young had the look last season of a young player who was finally growing into his muscular physique. As you can see in the table below, he hit the ball on the ground less often, which helped him turn some of his singles into doubles and home runs:
 

	PA	GB%	FB%	SLG
2008	623	55.2	27.8	.405
2009	416	49.7	34.1	.425
2010	613	44.7	39.8	.493

When you're hitting the ball in the air only once out of every four plate appearances, like Young did as a 22-year-old in his first season with the Twins, you're not giving yourself a lot of chances for deep outfield drives and home runs, which explains why about 75 percent of his hits that season were singles. However, as Young has matured over the past three years he's started to get under the ball with increased frequency, and the results have been very positive. If the trend continues this year his fly ball rate could rise well over 40 percent, and if he's hitting the ball in the air that often with his powerful frame it could result in a whole lot of gopher balls, even in spacious Target Field.

Even if the power incline continues, Young still won't be a hugely valuable all-around player. The run production is nice, but he doesn't draw walks and remains a slow-footed, abysmal defender -- an issue which could worsen this year if his early troubles with turf toe carry over into the regular season.

Ron Gardenhire would be wise to find more opportunities to work Young into the lineup as a designated hitter this season, especially against lefties and with fly ball pitchers on the mound for the Twins. His bat is turning into an unquestionable asset but that doesn't fully offset the damage he can do in the outfield.

Should Gardy choose to lessen Young's outfield load this year, superior defensive replacements would include Jason Repko and Ben Revere, who could ultimately be Young's successor in left.

Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Young: .310/.360/.550, 30 HR, 120 RBI

***

I also wanted to take some time today to explain a new feature I'm adding to the site this year. You may have noticed a new widget on the sidebar, just above the classic Christopher Walken pic, with the header "Twins Blog Tickets."

Here's the deal: I've partnered with a company called TiqIQ to offer readers this new avenue for finding tickets to games. If you click through the widget, you'll be taken to a TiqIQ Twins page (sporting a slick NTB co-branded design) with aggregated ticket and price listings from such third-party sellers as StubHub, TicketsNow and eBay.

Here are some of the unique features of TiqIQ:

1. Aggregated Listings: They aggregate all major sellers in the market so you can find the best deal.
2. TiqZone Categorization: They break each venue up into TiqZones, which are groupings of sections that we’ve determined are comparable in value.
3. TiqIQ Statistics: They provide ticket-level buying intelligence through their IQ rating and TiqIQ Statistics.
4. E-Ticket Filter:  Want tickets last minute?  You can find all the available e-tickets so you can print your tickets from home or the office.
5. All-in Pricing Option:  Before you complete your sale you'll be able to tell exactly how much your tickets will cost including all service and shipping fees.

I've added this feature because I think it can provide real value to readers who are looking for tickets to games, as third-party is often the only way to go for Twins fans considering the high demand at Target Field. If you decide to use TiqIQ to buy tickets, please let me know how it goes.

Pleasant Surprises

I arrived at the Lee County Sports Complex a couple hours early for Tuesday's game between the Twins and Pirates, so I wandered over to the minor-league field, where a relatively sizable crowd had assembled to take in the "B-game" between the two clubs.

Just as I walked up, Trevor Plouffe was at the plate, and on one of the first pitches I saw he drove a base hit to the outfield. The runner who'd been on second charged around third and slid across home plate to score on a close play. This wasn't particularly noteworthy until the runner popped up and I realized it was Justin Morneau.

I soon learned that Morneau, who had started without advance notice and was seeing his first live game action since last July, had put himself on second just moments earlier with a three-run double down the right field line. Music to my ears.

There was plenty to like in that B-game, played on a side field away from the eyes of most fans who were making their way out to Hammond Stadium for the day's main exhibition match-up. Delmon Young also made his spring debut in the game, though he was finished before I arrived. Kevin Slowey started and pitched well; I spied a few scouts in the stands who apparently were checking in on him on behalf of the Blue Jays. I got my first look at Kyle Gibson, who had hitters consistently beating the ball into the ground with a tailing fastball delivered from a 6'6" frame (though he did give up a well struck home run to Andy Marte).

The main feature didn't end up being quite so noteworthy, as the Twins delivered a rather punchless offensive performance (as one would expect in a game where Matt Tolbert was the team's first baseman and No. 5 hitter) on the way to a 5-2 loss. The contest was highlighted by four very sharp innings from Carl Pavano, and I had the privilege of spectating from some pretty amazing seats.

With Michael Cuddyer on track to return after having a nasty wart removed from his foot and Joe Mauer being cautiously eased back into duty, the Twins seem to be on their way to fielding all their star sluggers, which hopefully will prevent us from ever being subjected to Tolbert at first base again.

Delmon Young, MVP? Not Even Close

Ken Rosenthal is one of the most respected baseball writers in the country, and rightfully so. His work for FoxSports.com is typically outstanding, and when it comes to mainstream baseball writers there are few that I respect more.

His latest column on Twins outfield Delmon Young misses the mark though, in my opinion.

That's because Rosenthal prefaces an otherwise fine (if formulaic) article about Young's development with this assertion: "This season he is arguably the Twins’ most valuable player — yes, even over catcher Joe Mauer — and a top MVP candidate in the American League."

Rosenthal's assessment of Young as an MVP candidate is clearly based mostly -- if not entirely -- upon the outfielder's RBI total. Yes, Young leads the Twins with 86 runs driven in. And yes, that production has been critical in a season where the Twins have seen their usual run-producing machine (Justin Morneau) sit on the shelf for six weeks and counting.

But Young's overall performance has been far from elite. He ranks fourth on his own team in OPS, with an .866 mark that is very good but hardly spectacular for a corner outfielder. His continued inability to draw walks has limited him to a relatively modest .349 on-base percentage despite his outstanding .317 batting average. His 15 home runs, while a career high, hardly paint him as a top-of-the-line power hitter.

His RBI total, buoyed by a clearly unsustainable .378 batting average with runners in scoring position, has allowed him to stand out on a club that has often had trouble coming up with big hits in key situations. But in the grand scheme of things, Young still only ranks sixth in the AL in RBI, and that's with his blistering production in July that has predictably teetered off already. Young has driven in only five runs in 16 August games after plating 30 in August, and yet somehow the Twins have managed to keep winning.

I don't mean to belittle Young's offensive progress. Despite his lack of meaningful strides in terms of plate discipline, Young has clearly developed into a more powerful force at the plate. He's not necessarily choosing better pitches to swing at, but he's been able to make better contact with pitches out of the zone, and that's a legitimate skill.

The biggest flaw in Young's game, however, is one that Rosenthal completely overlooks: his defense. Young is a disaster in left field, which has been costly this season as several of the team's fly ball pitchers have struggled. It is because of Young's ineptitude in the field (along with the fact that he plays a non-valuable position to begin with) that he ranks 37th in the American League in FanGraphs.com's Wins Above Replacement metric, which accounts for defense.

I'm not a person who believes that WAR is the be-all, end-all statistic by which to judge a player's value (Denard Span, for instance, ranks ahead of Young by this metric, which is silly), but that's stark. The damage Young does on defense cuts into his offensive value, which on its own would not put him in the MVP conversation.

Young has emerged this season as the competent right-handed bat the Twins have been looking for. He has certainly provided a lot of value to this club and should continue to do so down the stretch. There are several players on the Twins' roster, however, who have been more vital to the team's success, and there are easily more than a dozen players in the American League who have been more valuable.

Had Young's July hot streak carried forth all the way to the end of the season, there may have been some reasonable argument to be made for him being a "top MVP candidate" based on his offensive merits alone. As it stands, the inevitable cold spell seems to have fallen upon Young and his defensive warts have been as apparent as ever. He's still only 24 and can keep on improving, but at this point he's just a good player on a good team that belongs nowhere near the MVP conversation.

Credit Where It's Due

It's easy to be impressed by the results of the Twins' four-game series in Tampa Bay this week. They went on the road to face arguably the best team in baseball and came away with a split. They rebounded from tough losses in the first two games of the series to gain big victories in the final two, building momentum as they travel to Cleveland and Chicago for the final two legs of their current road trip.

It's less easy to be impressed by the way they achieved those results. On Wednesday night, the Twins let a one-run lead slip away in the ninth inning, wasting a brilliant start from Scott Baker and forcing a 13-inning marathon before finally managing to pull off the victory. Today, Kevin Slowey and the bullpen crumbled late in the game as the Rays erased a 6-0 deficit before the Twins, again, were able to scratch out a late victory.

It was tough to watch the Twins allow a pair of games they'd been in complete control of slip away late. But these are the types of games that are extremely difficult to win on the road, especially against a fantastic team like the Rays, and the Twins do deserve a lot of credit for managing to finish the job in both the final two contests in this series.

They probably won't experience the good fortune of having a routine pop-up hit off a cat walk and land in the middle of the infield to score the winning run if they face the Rays again in the playoffs, but the Twins did play neck and neck throughout this series with a team that is tied for the MLB lead in victories. The Twins received gritty pitching performances in the first two games, losing on both occasions only because their offense was stymied by a very good starter, and more importantly they received dominant performances on the road from Slowey and Baker in the final two games. Those two have struggled immensely when pitching outside of Target Field this season, so for both to step up against a great team in a statement series like this speaks volumes about how far they have come and helps legitimize their recent success against weaker lineups.

In the spirit of assigning credit (and blame) where it is due, here are some other notes on the series in Tampa:

* There was plenty of head-shaking after newly acquired Matt Capps coughed up his first big save situation for his new team on Wednesday, as he came in with a 1-0 ninth-inning lead and allowed the tying run to cross the plate, but anyone who watched the game can hardly hold Capps accountable for the blown save.

Evan Longoria led off the ninth inning by hitting a fly ball to left field. It was a ball that most left fielders around the league would have caught in the air, and at worst it should have been smothered for a single, but Delmon Young awkwardly slid into it and kicked it back toward the infield, allowing Longoria to move into scoring position as the tying run with no outs. He'd eventually score.

The muffed play by Young was just one of many miscues in a game that was easily the ugliest of the season from a defensive standpoint for the Twins outfield, as he and Denard Span failed to track down numerous catchable balls. Miraculously, the Twins still only allowed one run in 13 innings -- all the more reason to praise Baker and the bullpen for their outsanding work in the game -- but Wednesday night's contest spotlighted something that has been a subtle issue for this club all year long: poor outfield defense is costing the Twins' pitchers.

With his minimal range and terrible instincts in the outfield, Young seems destined to become a designated hitter within the next few years. He probably should be one already. Keep that in mind when this premature MVP talk starts bubbling up.

* I have to admit, I have taken quite a liking to Jason Repko. His stellar play in the outfield has been a breath of fresh air in light of the issues mentioned above, and it doesn't hurt that his bat has been red-hot when he's gotten into the lineup, racking up a .319/.385/.617 hitting line with three homers and five doubles in 55 plate appearances.

I've enjoyed Repko's play so much that on Wednesday night I jokingly started using a #Repko4MVP hashtag on Twitter, though the gag seemed a little less silly yesterday when Repko was a crucial contributor in the Twins' victory.

Obviously he won't continue to hit like this, but a solid .274/.336/.433 hitting line in the minors (including .289/.357/.461 in Triple-A) suggests that there's no reason he can't keep his bat afloat, and if he's able to do that while maintaining his rangy defense in the outfield, he figures to be a useful piece for the Twins down the stretch.

Just maybe not an MVP. Yet.

* Speaking of unsustainably hot recent performances, I'd be remiss not to mention the play of Drew Butera, who has now started five consecutive games at catcher with Joe Mauer's shoulder aching. In those five games, Butera has gone 4-for-15 with a homer and a double while performing well defensively.

The "hot streak" has raised Butera's overall hitting line .205/.237/.341, which borders on palatable for a defensive specialist in the majors. However, before anyone starts getting keen on the idea of keeping Butera in the lineup more regularly even after Mauer's shoulder has healed, keep in mind that the kid has a long (LONG) history of not hitting in the minors.

Soon enough, he'll go back to being a massive liability with the bat, and -- as the first two games of this series against the Rays helped illustrate -- that's something the Twins can ill afford against contending clubs with good pitching staffs.

* J.J. Hardy has been on a tear since the All-Star break, and after going 3-for-4 in yesterday's contest he's hitting .270/.310/.398 on the season. The average MLB shortstop has hit .264/.322/.371 this year, so Hardy's production is firmly above average for his position. When accounting for his spectacular defense, Hardy has been a very good contributor for the Twins this season in spite of his wrist issues; meanwhile, while his defense in the outfield is missed, Carlos Gomez has essentially made zero strides offensively in Milwaukee. Looking like a nice trade for Bill Smith.

* Has there been a more enigmatic player than Alexi Casilla over the past few years? An apparent breakout season in 2008, when he hit .281/.333/.374 as a 23-year-old while helping the Twins mount a late charge for the AL Central crown, was followed up by an absolutely abysmal season in '09. Casilla has spent much of this season on the shelf, but he's returned to fill in at second with Orlando Hudson on the shelf and has performed admirably, using a combination of plate discipline in speed produce solid offensive numbers much like he did in '08.

His defense has also looked spectacular at times, most notably on the play that ended today's game, when Casilla ran about 20 feet to his left to track down a grounder and threw to first while twirling in mid-air to retire the speedy Carl Crawford.

During his career in Minnesota, I have seen Casilla track down some seemingly unreachable ground balls, yet UZR pegs him as a very poor second baseman, with a -9.7 rating in close to 2,000 MLB innings at the position. It strikes me that, like with his offense, Casilla's inconsistency on defense is mostly mental. The kid clearly has enough talent to be playing in the big leagues, but seemingly has a tough time staying focused. Whatever he's doing right now, hopefully he is able to keep it up until Hudson returns and beyond.

Bad Gardy

The lineups for tonight's tilt against the Indians have been released, and a quick glance at Ron Gardenhire's lineup has confirmed my fears: Delmon Young is starting in left field, and Jim Thome is on the bench.

This is egregious because Cleveland's starter in the game is Justin Masterson, a grounder-inducing righty who delivers from a three-quarters slot. Almost without exception, pitchers that throw from this angle are extremely vulnerable to opposite-handed batters (think Pat Neshek) and Masterson is certainly no exception. During his career, left-handed hitters have posted an OPS nearly 300 points higher than righties against him. That's not a platoon split, it's a chasm. It's an enormous, glaring number that should make the decision to bench a player like Young -- who already hits the ball on the ground too often and has always struggled to hit right-handed pitching -- an absolute no-brainer.

When Gardenhire made a similarly misguided decision earlier this month, I pointed out that the thinking behind his decision was "a significant flaw in Gardy's managerial approach, and one that is likely to manifest repeatedly throughout the season." Here, we see it again, in an even more inexcusable situation. Like last time, this is but one lineup decision and odds are that it won't be the deciding factor in tonight's game, but we're seeing a manager overlooking blatantly obvious statistical evidence and failing to put key players in a position to succeed.

Master Blasters

Last year, the Twins ranked fourth in the American League in runs scored with 817. That's impressive. They also hit 173 homers to rank ninth out of 14 AL clubs, which -- while hardly astounding -- represented an improvement from their usual standing among the bottom two or three teams in the long ball department.

This year, the Twins brought back every key offensive player from last year's roster while (perhaps dramatically) upgrading both middle infield spots and signing a Hall of Famer to serve as a part-time bench bat. This created a lot of enthusiasm amongst fans eager to see what this loaded lineup could do.

Just four games into the season, these Twins have given us a pretty good idea. Already they've blasted nine home runs (last year it took them until April 17 to reach that mark) and they've demonstrated an ability go get power from the bottom of the order, something rarely seen around these parts. Delmon Young and JJ Hardy, who typically will serve in the No. 7 and 8 spots in the order, each homered twice in Anaheim. Unsurprisingly, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Jim Thome have gotten in on the action as well, and it surely won't be long until Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel join the parade.

The score in last night's game went from 3-1 to 10-1 in an awful hurry. That's the beauty of the multi-run homer, which will be a more potent weapon for the Twins this season than perhaps ever before. Sort of a surreal feeling.

Playing Against the Percentages

I'm generally supportive of Ron Gardenhire. He runs a good clubhouse and you can't argue with the results he's gotten since taking the helm here in Minnesota. With that being said, it is not infrequent that the man makes a completely illogical managerial decision that drives me bonkers. I had been wondering when the first such occasion would arise in this young season; it happened last night, when Gardenhire elected to work Jim Thome into the starting lineup by benching Jason Kubel rather than Delmon Young.

Ervin Santana, who started the game for the Angels, was basically a nightmare match-up for Young. Over the course of his career, Young has hit just .232/.266/.308 against "power pitchers" -- a term referring to hurlers who rank among the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. That's a category that Santana will typically fall into with his nasty stuff and somewhat shaky control. Additionally, Young has posted a weak .715 OPS against right-handed pitchers, while the righty Santana has been substantially more effective against same-handed batters over the course of his career. It was a fairly obvious instance in which Young should have sat.

Instead, Gardenhire decided to bench Kubel, one of the league's premier hitters against right-handed pitching. Last year, Kubel posted a phenomenal 1.014 OPS against righties, and Santana was clubbed by lefty hitters to the tune of .323/.385/.526. Perfect match-up. Yet, Gardenhire didn't see it that way -- likely because Kubel had previously only managed two hits against Santana in a meaningless 14 at-bat sample.

Giving Thome a start at DH last night was a good choice. Doing so by sitting Kubel against a pitcher he was almost ideally suited to face was astonishingly misguided. Some might argue that it's a moot point, given that the Twins won the game in spite of Young's 0-for-4 performance. But the guiding philosophy behind this decision is a significant flaw in Gardy's managerial approach, and one that is likely to manifest repeatedly throughout the season.

Gardenhire's a good manager overall, but he's far from perfect. Last night, we were reminded of that. Fortunately, the Twins still won, reminding us that -- while impactful -- singular lineup decisions don't determine who wins and loses games. The players do. Hopefully Kubel will be back in the lineup to help the Twins win tonight with another right-hander on the hill.

Musing on Spring Performances

The Twins will wrap up their spring schedule down in Florida this week before heading back north and playing a pair of exhibition games against the Cardinals at Target Field over the weekend. This will be followed by a day off on Sunday, with the regular season officially getting underway in Los Angeles on Monday.

Between being out of town and breaking down the entire team position-by-position over the past few weeks, I haven't provided much commentary on what's happening in Grapefruit League play. So today, with the obvious caveat that spring training numbers are to be taken with a half of a grain of salt, I'll peruse some spring training performances and see if any useful insights can be gleaned.

* Yesterday I put out a tweet pointing out that Delmon Young currently leads the team with six extra-base hits this spring, which is an encouraging sign given that many are hoping that the left fielder can turn a corner and start hitting for power here in his age 24 season. As Aaron Gleeman quickly pointed out to me after I posted the tweet, though, Young also hit .361 with a .500 slugging percentage last spring before struggling once the regular season got underway.

No one doubts Young's innate ability, so it shouldn't come as any real surprise that he's been able to succeed in spring training against pitchers who are either rusty, not trying their hardest, not major-league caliber, or some combination of those things.

Ultimately, people are going to see what they want to see in the enigmatic outfielder. Is Young's strong spring a continuation of the improvement he showed late last year during the team's stretch run, or is it just another short-term fluke that won't translate into anything meaningful when the season starts? Unfortunately, I'd tend to lean toward the latter, but I'd love to be wrong.

* Jacque Jones won't be making the team out of spring training, but it's still tough not to be impressed with what he was able to accomplish at the Twins' camp. Given how long he'd been out of the majors and how dreadful the reports I'd received on him from various sources were, I half expected him to be unable to swing a bat. But Jones could certainly swing, as evidenced by his .364/.417/.625 hitting line. Unless another team swoops in to claim him, Jones will open the season in Rochester where he'll be just a phone call away from rejoining the Twins at Target Field. I'd love to see that happen.

* There were two key players I had serious concerns about entering spring training this year, based on injuries that had ended their 2009 seasons. One was Kevin Slowey and the other was Justin Morneau. Slowey has helped to ease my concerns by allowing just four runs on 15 hits over 20 innings while maintaining his pinpoint command, and while Morneau has batted just .184, he has homered twice and ripped three doubles. Since back injuries can really sap a player's power, that's the most important sign to me.

* Team leader in walks this spring? It's a tie between Denard Span and Orlando Hudson, who will be filling the first and second spots in the lineup this year. That's nice to see.

* At the outset of spring training, I had little doubt that Pat Neshek would be opening the season in the minors. He hadn't pitched in a major-league game since May of 2008 and spent all of last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, which would seemingly be an especially big deal for a pitcher with a quirky delivery like his. Yet, Neshek has been terrific this spring. In eight appearances, he has allowed only two runs on five hits over 8 2/3 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. Suddenly, Neshek is a very real candidate to sneak into a bullpen that is now somewhat lacking in right-handed power arms, and he could easily insert himself into the closer conversation.

* The fifth spot in the Twins' rotation is still being framed as an open competition between Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing, but it seems pretty clear who Ron Gardenhire has in mind for the role. Four of Liriano's five appearances this spring have been starts, whereas Duensing has entered as a reliever in three of his four outings. Of course, Liriano also has the gaudy numbers backing him up; in 14 innings, he has fanned 22 batters while issuing only two walks. I'm withholding excitement on Liri-- OK, I can't even say it. I'm really, really excited about Liriano this year.

Position Analysis: Left Field

Likely Starter: Delmon Young

2009 Stats: .284/.308/.425, 12 HR, 60 RBI

Will this be Young's year? (Photo courtesy of Keith Allison)

Potential Backups: Jason Kubel, Jacque Jones

Yesterday, in preparation for writing this article, I sent out a message from my Twitter account asking Twins fans to summarize their feelings about Delmon Young in one word. The responses, predictably, were mostly negative.

"Frustrating."

"Baffling."

"Underwhelmed."

"Exasperated."

"Trepidation."

"Malaise."

During his time here in Minnesota, Young has never really been embraced by the typically warm fan base because, for various reasons, I think it's been tough for fans to get behind him. Off the field, he doesn't have a particularly good reputation (although, to his credit, he hasn't had any publicized incidents since coming over from Tampa). On the field, he has been a major disappointment, having posted similarly underwhelming numbers in each of his three major-league seasons. His style of play can be frustrating to watch; he doesn't get to many balls in the outfield, swings at just about everything at the plate and hits into a lot of double plays. And while Young has failed to establish himself as a Twin, the two key players that Bill Smith traded for him -- Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett -- have blossomed into stars while wearing Rays uniforms.

Through his first couple years here in Minnesota, Young also had the misfortune of being juxtaposed against Carlos Gomez, another young player who was competing for playing time in the outfield. While the flaws in Gomez's game were perhaps no less frustrating than those in Young's, Gomez had a much more fan-friendly allure. His energy, enthusiasm and glowing personality portrayed him as a vastly different character than the more quiet and reserved Young.

After hedging back and forth between the two promising outfielders for much of the last two years, the Twins finally made a full commitment to Young this offseason by trading Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. Young enters this season with regular playing time in left all but guaranteed. He's 24, with three full years of big-league experience under his belt and with nobody breathing down his neck. Everything seems aligned for him to finally emerge and fulfill -- at least to some degree -- the immense promise he showed as an elite teenage prospect. But will it happen?

Young's defenders often point to his youth. After all, they note, the typical 24-year-old player is still getting his feet wet at Triple-A, not preparing for his fourth season as a full-time major-leaguer. But what's troubling is that Young has now amassed over 1800 big-league plate appearances and has not evolved one bit as a hitter. His offensive production has been nearly identical in his three full seasons, and that production -- .288/.321/.411 with an average of 12 home runs and 74 RBI -- is simply not satisfactory for someone playing a non-valuable defensive position (and poorly). The average American League left fielder batted .267/.338/.442 last year, so Young's offensive performance wasn't even average, and defensively he rated as one of the league's worst at his position. He struck out far more often than any of his past big-league seasons, and he drew only 12 walks in 416 plate appearances. This isn't exactly the type of progression you'd like to see from a hitter who should be figuring things out in his third full year against major-league competition.

Before we all go writing Young off, though, there are a few promising signs to be gleaned from his 2009 campaign upon closer inspection. For one thing, his overall numbers were significantly dragged down by a terrible slump that immediately followed the passing of his mother, which very obviously affected his focus on the field. In the weeks after returning from a (perhaps overly) brief absence from the team, Young was striking out in every other at-bat and his batting average sunk by about 60 points. Take out this understandably poor stretch of performance and his overall numbers look a whole lot better.

In addition, Young finished the season very strong, which always helps breed hope heading into the next season. During the 17-4 stretch that propelled the Twins past the Tigers and into the playoffs, Young hit .353 with four of his 12 home runs and 17 RBI. During those final weeks of the season, Young was consistently hammering the baseball, and his three-run double off the right-field baggy against the eventual Cy Young winner Zack Greinke in a must-win October contest still stands out to me as one of the most memorable moments in the Twins' amazing run.

Yet, the hot streak did not coincide with any discernible change in approach for Young. During that 21-game stretch, Young continued to hack away at the plate, drawing just two non-intentional walks in 92 plate appearances. And there are plenty of people -- myself included -- who believe that unless Young takes meaningful strides with his pitch recognition he'll never be able to take his game to the next level for an extended period of time. He's a great contact hitter with the body of an imposing slugger, but Young just isn't good enough to become an outstanding hitter while he's consistently swinging at bad pitches. Simply put, he's not Vladimir Guerrero.

So far this spring, Young has seemingly shown little interest in becoming a more patient at the dish, as he's drawn only one walk in seven games (and batted .176). But spring training stats are relatively meaningless and Young has at least indicated that he plans to become more selective now that he doesn't face the prospect of being benched after a bad day at the plate with Gomez gone. Of course, his comfortable leash in left field won't last forever; if he's not getting it done, Young will have to start worrying about Jim Thome -- who can nudge Jason Kubel into left field -- cutting into his playing time.

As it stands, Kubel will likely spend some time in left field with Thome serving as designated hitter against tough right-handed pitchers. That should benefit Young, who has been much more effective against lefties than righties over the course of his career.

It's now or never for Young. While he's only 24, this will be his fourth full season and now that he's in his arbitration years he's becoming quite expensive. If he can't take a legitimate step forward this year, I suspect that the Twins will seek to move in a different direction. There are certainly still those out there who believe in Young, as illustrated by those few tweets I received yesterday with positive tones like "optimistic" and "promising." And while those words ceased to describe my take on Young as I've watched him fail to make adjustments over the past three years, that doesn't mean I'm not hopeful.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Young: .300/.335/.430, 15 HR, 60 RBI

The Young and the Listless

Since Joe Mauer's return to the Twins' lineup on May 1, we fans have been witness to an incredible hot streak -- easily the most impressive I've ever seen. Yet, on the opposite end of the spectrum, we've also seen one of the most brutal hitting droughts in memory. Over the course of this season, and over the past month or so especially, Delmon Young has been absolutely abysmal.

This post isn't a redux of the tired Young vs. Gomez argument, as Gomez hasn't exactly been a world-beater at the plate in his own right. But Young's at-bats as of late have been mind-bogglingly terrible, and the poor approach has been reflected in his results. Over the past calendar month, Young has gone 10-for-55 (.182) with zero extra-base hits, three walks and 24 strikeouts. He's grounded into three double plays during that span. It's hard to imagine a rougher stretch at the plate.

Particularly troubling is the absurdly high strikeout rate. Young has always been somewhat prone to striking out, with a 17.8 percent major-league K-rate entering 2009, but this season he's been whiffing at an astronomical rate. With 41 strikeouts in 125 plate appearances, Young's '09 strikeout rate stands at 32.8 percent, and over the past month it's been 40.7 percent.

With his inability to put the ball in play with any regularity, Young has been limited to a paltry .231 batting average despite being relatively lucky on balls in play (.342 BABIP). He's got only four hits in his past 41 at-bats and the strikeouts are piling up more than ever. Young looks completely lost at the plate and he's showing no signs of snapping out of it.

Of course, what must be noted is that the majority of those 41 at-bats have come after Young's return from a leave of absence due to his mother's death. Prior to his trip to California to be with his mother in her final days, Young was batting .277 with a 648 OPS and a 24.4 percent strikeout rate. Those aren't good numbers but they aren't disastrous either. Since returning to the team after his mother's passing, Young has hit .098 and has struck out 21 times in 42 plate appearances -- 50 percent! He's fanned multiple times in seven of those nine games.

Without question, losing a mother (particularly at the age of 23) can turn a person's life upside down and make it impossible to focus on anything, particularly playing a sport. As such, Young's current mega-slump is at least partially -- if not totally -- excusable and understandable. What's not excusable is that his name continues to be written into the lineup everyday while he digs himself into a deeper and deeper offensive hole. Young was held out of the starting lineup yesterday for only the third time in 11 games since his return.

I think it's a well documented fact that I'm not a big fan of Mr. Young, but he's not as bad as his recent numbers suggest. In watching him listlessly flail away at the plate, it's pretty clear that he's not really there mentally right now, which is totally understandable given his circumstances. He needs some time to get his head straight. A stint on the bench might work, but would also be tough to work out given that the Twins are already short on healthy outfielders. The better bet would be to place him on the disabled list for a while, although I don't know what the official rules are as far as using the disabled list for mental health issues. (Dontrelle Willis was DL'ed by the Tigers earlier this season for anxiety problems; perhaps the Twins could make a similar move?)

Whichever way they want to go about it, the Twins need to get Young out of the lineup for a while. And once he's got his mind right, he should return to his rightful spot as fourth outfielder.

Word From Up Top?

Having watched Ron Gardenhire manage this team for the past seven years, we've grown pretty familiar with his tendencies and preferences. We know his tactics, we know how he likes to fill out a lineup, we know how he likes to utilize his bullpen. We also definitely know that there is a particular type of player that Gardenhire especially likes, and that he is generally much more likely to have a longer leash with players who fall into this mold.

Gardenhire, much like the Twins as an organization, values good defensive players. He likes guys that play hard and hustle. If he likes a player, you'll frequently hear him refer to that player as "scrappy," or you'll see him talk about how the player "battles his tail off." Gardenhire also likes players who have a positive influence in the clubhouse. Offensive production often takes a back seat to these factors in the mind of the Twins' manager, which is why Nick Punto remained a regular player for the entirety of his disastrous 2007 season. It's also why Matt Tolbert has immediately seized the starting second base job and second spot in the lineup while Brendan Harris still must fight for playing time. I've always figured that Gardy's affinity for this type of player is based on the fact that he himself was a light-hitting hustle guy when he played in the big leagues.

Given Gardenhire's historical tendencies, I'm having a very difficult time understanding why he has seemingly elected to make Delmon Young his starting left fielder while relegating Carlos Gomez to a bench role as a fourth outfielder and late-game defensive replacement. Obviously I think Gomez should be the team's starting center fielder, and I don't suspect that Gardenhire would agree for the same reasons. I doubt he's aware that Wins Above Replacement (a statistic which incorporates both offense and defense) shows Gomez as an above-average player up to this point, with his advantage over Young being roughly equivalent to Justin Morneau's advantage over Michael Cuddyer. I also doubt that Gardenhire knows -- or cares -- that there are articles out there concluding that Denard Span is worth 37 runs over Young in left field. But being that Gomez plays fantastic defense, hustles all over the field, maintains an enthusiastic clubhouse demeanor and is built to do all the little things (bunting, stealing, etc.), it baffles me that Gardenhire is choosing to bench Gomez in favor of Young, who doesn't seem to embody any of those qualities. There's one theory I keep coming back to: he's not.

During the offseason, it was widely reported that the Twins were aggressively shopping Young. Several reporters who covered the winter meetings got the sense that the chances of Young being on the Twins' Opening Day roster this season were outweighed by the chances he wouldn't be. Of course, he didn't end up being moved, and the reason for that could very well be that no other general managers were offering much for the former top prospect, who was coming off his second straight disappointing major-league season.

So, perhaps the Twins are still interested in moving Young. And perhaps the knowledge that Young has no chance of ramping up his trade value while sitting on the bench has motivated Bill Smith and the front office to influence Gardenhire's decision-making process. If regular playing time could put Young on some sort of hot streak, it might pique the interest of teams searching for a right-handed bat.

There are plenty of smart people who disagree with my opinion that Gomez should be ahead of Young on the outfield depth chart, and there have been a number of reasonable points used in support of that particular view. But none of these reasons seem like the type that would be used by the Gardenhire that I've come to know. I've got to believe there's more going on here than meets the eye.

Demote Gomez?

Now that Alexi Casilla has been sent to the minors, there have been many calls amongst Twins fans for a follow-up move: a demotion for Carlos Gomez. Howard Sinker went on the record for this cause back in mid-April, and now it seems that everywhere I look -- be it Twins Geek, Seth Speaks, Bleacher Bums, or any number of message boards and comments sections -- fans are clamoring for Gomez to be shipped to Rochester.

I disagreed with Howard a few weeks ago and I still disagree with this sentiment now -- perhaps even more so.

Gomez could probably benefit from some time in Triple-A, I get that. But given that the Twins haven't exactly been playing stellar baseball lately, their main concern at this point ought to be putting the best possible team on the field. Since sending Gomez down would mean regular playing time for Delmon Young, the question becomes which player makes the team better. I think it's almost impossible to argue that point in Young's favor right now.

Clearly, Gomez is a far more valuable defensive player. I've discussed that fact ad nauseum and I don't think there's much debate about it. Certainly, opinions differ as to how much more valuable he is in the field, but there's no denying that the Twins' defense is better with Gomez in center and Denard Span in left than with Span in center and Young in left. Personally, I think that the latter configuration is significantly worse and far more straining on the pitching staff. Others don't believe the gap is that large, or that important.

So, with Gomez clearly bringing more value defensively and on the basepaths, Young needs to be outhitting him in order to justify his spot in the lineup. Is he? Not really -- not by a substantial margin anyway.

Prior to last night's game, Young's OPS was a whopping 10 points higher than that of Gomez. That margin increased a bit with Young's three-hit game last night, but of course all three hits were singles. Young has only two extra-base hits this season (Gomez has five); combine that with a lack of patience and his batting average is about as empty as they get. In spite of his solid .288 average, Young's OPS stands at 671 after last night's game -- bad for anyone, but terrible for a poor-fielding corner outfielder.

One might point to recent trends as the reason Young deserves playing time over Gomez. After all, they might note, Young has eight hits in his last 20 at-bats. But that angle doesn't work, because Gomez has nine hits in his last 20 at-bats. And while all of Young's eight hits were singles, Gomez has mixed three doubles in. AND while Young has posted a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span, Gomez struck out only four times while walking twice.

I don't doubt that some time in Rochester might do Gomez a bit of good, but the Twins have now lost five of their past six games and they need to be focused on putting the players on the field who will help them win. I'm not seeing anything to convince me that Young is helping the team more than Gomez right now. Apparently Ron Gardenhire is, because Gomez has started only three of the Twins' last 13 games. While he was away from the team for a couple days to be with his wife, who was giving birth to their first child, that remains a ridiculous rate of play for the still-developing 23-year-old.

If Gardy is going to relegate Gomez to the bench, then he should be sent down to the minors so he can play regularly. But the plain and simple fact is that Gomez should be starting, and Young should be the fourth outfielder.

Left Out

After recording impressive victories on Friday and Saturday night, the Twins fell to the Indians 4-2 in yesterday's series finale to leave Cleveland with a series victory rather than a sweep. It was a good weekend for the Twins, but it's not too difficult to see why they were unable to pick up a win yesterday against left-handed starter Aaron Laffey.

Coming into the game, here were the numbers for the Twins' right-handed middle-of-the-lineup hitters against southpaws:

Michael Cuddyer: .188/.272/.385
Delmon Young: .188/.235/.375
Joe Crede: .286/.333/.500

Only Crede has been having any success against lefties so far in this young season. In total, the three hitters were 2-for-11 in the game, with both the hits being singles. The Twins need these three to step up their performance against left-handers so the offense won't be completely screwed on days where the big lefty bats -- Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel -- struggle as they did yesterday.

Of course, the impetus also falls on the team's other right-handed hitters, such as Brendan Harris (hitting .267 vs. LHP), Carlos Gomez (hitting .143 vs. LHP). The team's regular switch-hitters, Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla, have gone a combined 1-for-36 against southpaws.

Struggling against left-handers is nothing new for the Twins, but it's really not excusable given with the number of right-handed batters they can trot out against any lefty. Joe Mauer's return should provide an overall jolt to the lineup but shouldn't be expected to help them specifically in this area. Instead, the responsibility falls on guys like Cuddyer and Young to do their job and step up when left-handed pitchers are suppressing the team's big lefty bats.

Position Analysis: Right Field

Projected Starter: Michael Cuddyer
2008 Stats: .249/.330/.369, 3 HR, 36 RBI

Potential Backups: Delmon Young, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Jason Pridie

Michael Cuddyer is one of the biggest wild cards for the 2009 Minnesota Twins. If he can simply stay on the field, he should be expected to post numbers around his career line of .268/.344/.441. If he can actually stay fully healthy for the entire season, we could see him return to the level he was at in 2006. Either of those outcomes would be a significant upgrade over what either he or Delmon Young did last season. Cuddyer’s presence in the lineup figures to lead to an improvement, one way or another.

It’s now been two full years since 2006, when Cuddyer seemingly had a breakout season that entrenched him as that crucial right-handed bat which could be wedged between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the lineup. Cuddyer played solidly over the first half of the 2007 season, but injuries caused him to struggle over the final couple months. Last year, more injuries limited Cuddyer to just 71 games, and even when he managed to play his ailments weighed on him, causing him to post the worst numbers of his career.

Cuddyer’s standing in the clubhouse and his hefty contract guarantee him the starting job in right field to start the year, but his leash may not be terribly long. With Denard Span figuring to take the majority of playing time in left field, Young will be without a regular spot. Since right field is the position Young is best suited for, he stands as a ready replacement for Cuddyer in the event of another rash of injuries or poor performance.

I get the sense that Cuddyer is exasperated with the injuries he’s dealt with over the past two seasons and is very motivated to stay healthy and productive this season. While I’m not convinced he will ever again post the type of numbers he did in ’06, he definitely seems poised for a rebound. If he can hit for a decent average while posting an on-base percentage in the .360 range and smacking 30-35 doubles with 15-20 homers, Cuddyer will be a fine offensive player and a good fit in the middle of the lineup along with the big bats of Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and (hopefully) Joe Mauer.

If Cuddyer succumbs to injuries once again, Young should be the man to step in. Young is well suited for right field in the Metrodome, where his limited range is less of a liability since there isn’t as much ground to cover as the other outfield spots, and where his tremendous arm is most effectively utilized. I found Ron Gardenhire’s decision to use Young in left and Span in right last year to be mystifying, so hopefully if Cuddyer goes down this year the roles of those two players will be swapped. I won’t predict Young’s specific numbers during the Position Analysis series since he doesn’t project as a regular starter at any one position (he seems likely to split time between LF, RF and DH), but for what it’s worth I do expect Young to take a solid stride forward this year, and maybe post numbers closer to the .295/.340/.480 line I overzealously predicted from him last year.

Having Young in place as a backup plan for Span and Cuddyer puts the Twins in a pretty comfortable position as far as their corner outfield spots go. When I wrote up the left field analysis earlier this week I explained that I don’t expect a large regression from Span, so Young’s best shot at landing a regular spot at a particular position might be in right field. He’ll see some time there, I’m sure, but I foresee Cuddyer staying healthy for most of the year, holding down the right field job and adequately filling the No. 5 spot in the batting order.

Predicted 2009 Hitting Line for Cuddyer: .265/.355/.450, 15 HR, 80 RBI

Position Analysis: Left Field

Likely Starter: Denard Span
2008 Stats: .294/.387/.432, 6 HR, 47 RBI

Span is a prime candidate to regress this year. Will he?

Potential Backups: Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Jason Pridie

In January of 2007, I wrote a post titled "Will Span Pan Out?" that assessed the future of the Twins' once-bright center field prospect. At the time, Span was coming off a season in which he'd posted a mediocre .285/.340/.349 hitting line as a 22-year-old in Double-A and held a similar .288/.357/.346 career line through four minor-league seasons. At the time, I felt that Span looked like future light-hitting fourth outfielder with a good glove, and I concluded the article by saying that 2007 would be "a crucial season for Span and he'll have to show some improved discipline at the plate and a readiness to take his game to the next level."

That showed no signs of happening early on. Over the first four months of his first season in Rochester, Span posted on-base percentages of .261, .280, .311 and .312, striking out 80 times during that period while drawing just 24 walks. Then, in August (the final month he got extensive at-bats that year), Span displayed a dramatic shift in his plate approach, suddenly showing far more patience and drawing 16 walks while posting a .420 on-base percentage. I didn't make much of this seemingly odd occurrence, viewing it as a sample size fluke. The following spring Twins Geek made note of Span's late walk outburst in Rochester and observed that, in combination with the patience the outfielder had been showing in spring training, there might be something real there. I remained skeptical. After watching Span put together a tremendous 2008 season that would have certainly been deserving of serious Rookie of the Year consideration if not for the existence of Evan Longoria, I'm ready to admit that the Geek was right, Span was right, and I was wrong.

Now, that's not to say Span is a lock to go forth as the outstanding hitter he proved to be during the entirety of last year (both in Triple-A and the majors), but after watching him play extensively I've grown cautiously optimistic about his future. Span put up better numbers than any of his Twins outfield contemporaries last season, and with his patient approach at the plate and his ability to square up on the ball for solid contact, he seems like perhaps the safest bet of the outfield group to provide above-average numbers in 2008.

One area where Span will seemingly have a hard time avoiding regression is in the power-hitting department -- particularly against left-handed pitching. Last year, the left-handed hitter posted a .283/.402/.472 line against southpaws, which dwarfed his performance against righties. Now, Span is interesting in that he's always been a more disciplined hitter when facing left-handers. From 2005 to 2007, he posted a 76-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio against minor-league lefties (1.65 strikeouts for every walk) as compared to a 162-to-78 K/BB against minor-league righties (2.08 strikeouts for every walk). So, one can reasonably state that Span's ability to reach base against lefties at a rate similar to or better than his rate against righties is for real, and that makes him a great fit as an everyday lead-off hitter. The power he showed against lefties last year, however, is completely out-of-line with his track record. This gives us reason to project less power unless he can somehow repeat the strong showing against southpaws (not terribly likely) or show increased power against right-handers (more likely).

Of the four players who are likely to see significant time in the Twins' outfield this year, Span will probably move around the most. While I see him getting the majority of his playing time in left field, I suspect his ample experience in center field and right field will lead to a fair amount of playing time in both those spots. That's just fine, since Span is an above-average defender in any of three spots, but I do believe he's best-suited for left in the Metrodome, since there's more ground to coverthere than the baggy-shortened right field and since the other corner outfielders' stronger arms will play better in right.

On days that Span is sitting out or playing elsewhere, Delmon Young is likely to be manning left field. I think that Young will be a better defender this year than he was last year, when he was adjusting to a new position and bothered by a bad ankle, but he should still be kept out of left field when a fly ball pitcher like Glen Perkins or Scott Baker is on the mound. In general, I think Young represents a solid backup option in the event that Span gets hit hard by regression or injury, but for the time being Span is rightfully looking like the main man in left field.

I give Span a lot of credit. He has turned his game around and proven critics wrong, and now he seems poised to become the long-term lead-off solution the Twins have been seeking for over a decade. In order to do that, he'll have to first prove that last year wasn't a fluke; despite my past reservations, I'm pretty confident it was not.

Predicted 2009 Hitting Line for Span: .290/.375/.415, 10 HR, 65 RBI

Tracking the Third Base Saga

The Winter Meetings are now officially underway, so we should start seeing a whole bunch of rumors spring up over the course of the week. (You can follow all the developments at Rotoworld, where Aaron Gleeman is blogging the action.)

The Twins continue to seek a third base solution. They reportedly broke off talks with Casey Blake late last week when the two sides couldn't come to agreement on a third year (the Twins wanted an option, Blake wanted a guarantee). Ultimately, this turned out to be a deal-breaker, and it looks like Blake will end up re-signing with the Dodgers, who are willing to add a third year to their offer.

While I thought Blake was a logical target for the Twins, I'm glad to see them taking a hard stance here. He'd have been a solid short-term option and the Twins have money to burn over the next couple seasons, but it's not clear that they'll have the payroll flexibility in 2011 to have $6+ million committed to a 38-year-old.

And so, the Twins move on to looking at other options. For the time being, that apparently means reopening talks with the Mariners regarding Adrian Beltre. Seattle Times beat writer Geoff Baker suggests the M's may be interested in moving Beltre in return for a package built around Michael Cuddyer. While that'd be fine and dandy from the Twins' perspective, it doesn't really make sense for the Mariners. If they're trying to shed payroll (the only reason they'd deal Beltre), why would they be interested in bringing in a injury-prone veteran with a spotty track record and a somewhat bulky contract? If the Mariners actually do covet the right fielder for some reason, I'd think a package of Cuddyer plus Jeff Manship would be a good starting point. But, again, I sincerely doubt that is the case and I find it much more likely that the Mariners will demand a member of The Fab Five.

Elsewhere, Paul Hagen from the Philadelphia Daily News speculates that the Phillies may be interested in acquiring Delmon Young to replace Pat Burrell in their outfield. In return, Hagen notes that the Twins "almost certainly would ask for top prospect Jason Donald and are also seeking bullpen help." I've been pretty hawkish in my opposition to trading Young while his value is down, but I'd back off from that position if the Twins could reel in a player like Donald, a shortstop who has raked his way through the minors and finished last season at Double-A. Of course, such a deal would have to produce mixed feelings amongst Twins fans. On the one hand, the organization is bringing in a top prospect who represents a potential long-term solution at a middle infield spot. On the other hand, they're shipping off a big-league player who can help now in return for a guy who in all likelihood won't be ready to contribute significantly until 2010.

That's all I've got for today. Make sure to check back throughout the week; I'll continue to keep tabs on all the Twins-related rumors that pop up during this week of Hot Stove action.