Three-Bagger: Draft, Lineups & Gatherings

* The first round of Major League Baseball's amateur entry draft took place yesterday, and the Twins were the 30th team to pick, by virtue of their tremendous 2010 campaign. Rather than selecting a college pitcher or high school position player, as they have with their first pick in each of the past 14 drafts, the Twins nabbed University of Carolina shortstop Levi Michael.

I haven't spent as much time studying the draft crop this year as I usually do, so I was only familiar with a handful of prospects and Michael was not one of them. From what I gather, he's a switch-hitting junior who's improved his stock over the course of his collegiate career.

It's nice to see the Twins break from their routine and bring in a polished player at a position of severe organization weakness. I've seen Michael's upside compared to Brian Roberts. To be honest, though, based on what I've read, it's pretty difficult to get enthused about the kid.

From the MLB.com scouting report:

Every Draft class has a crop of college middle infielders that is interesting, if not overwhelmingly exciting. Michael has improved over the past couple of years, moving himself to close to the top of this year's class of college hitters who play up the middle.

He can hit from both sides of the plate and, though he is more of a gap-to-gap guy, has gotten stronger and shown a little more pop this season.

When he's healthy, he's got above-average speed and will steal a base. An ankle injury has slowed him somewhat this season on both sides of the ball. Even before that, some scouts felt his range was too limited to be an everyday shortstop as a professional. His average arm is playable there but might be a bit short to profile there all the time. As a result, most see him as a second baseman -- his hands work just fine -- or as a utility type who can fill in at shortstop and not be a detriment.

It may not sound like the most exciting combination of tools, but it should be enough to be gone in the first 60 picks.

"Average arm"? "Hands work just fine"? "Utility type"? These are not descriptors one likes to read for a first-round pick. Fortunately, Baseball America paints a slightly better picture:

Michael was a solid high school prospect in Lexington, N.C., but he graduated early in order to join the Tar Heels for the 2009 season. He has played a new position each season, moving from second base as a freshman to third base as a sophomore, before settling in at shortstop this year. He's been a reliable defender at all three spots, and scouts are warming up to the idea that he could stay at shortstop at the pro level. He missed a couple of games with an ankle injury and was still getting back to 100 percent, but he still showed ability in all facets of the game and was hitting .311/.461/.464 with 14 stolen bases in 15 attempts in 196 at-bats. He is a patient hitter with a good eye for the strike zone from both sides of the plate, with a 43-27 walk-strikeout ratio. He hits to all fields and could hit at the top of the batting order, though he shows pop and is naturally stronger from the right side. He's an above-average runner, though he hadn't quite returned to that level since the injury. Scouts don't view the ankle as a long-term concern. Defensively, he has good actions and enough arm strength for shortstop. The only concern is his range, but he'll get every chance to prove himself before potentially sliding to second base.

I want to believe the Twins got their guy. Then I read quotes like this one from scouting director Deron Johnson: "Picking No. 30, it's just whomever is left."

Indeed.

The Twins made two more selections yesterday, utilizing the sandwich picks they received as compensation for the free agent departures of Orlando Hudson and Jesse Crain. Those were used on Travis Harrison, a high school third baseman from California with considerable power potential (my favorite pick of the day), and Hudson Boyd, a right-handed high school pitcher from Ft. Myers.

The first-round results from this organization's past few drafts have been iffy (at least until Aaron Hicks and Alex Wimmers can get things turned around), but they've still made enough solid picks over the years that I'm willing to trust their judgment. They really need some of these picks to pan out.

* Ron Gardenhire's lineup last night was an interesting one, which featured Denard Span somewhere other than the leadoff spot for the first time since he was a rookie in 2008. Taking over in the one-spot was Ben Revere, who has seen his bat heat up in early June.

I applaud Gardy for the creativity, even if it didn't pay dividends. Revere and Span combined to go 1-for-8, but the bottom part of the order keyed a 6-4 victory, the club's fifth straight.

Noticeably absent from last night's lineup card was Danny Valencia, who had started each of the team's first 58 games. The sophomore hasn't hit all that well, but he's at least been in the lineup every day and deserves credit for that.

* I had a lot of fun at Friday night's TwinsCentric Viewing Party at Smalley's 87 Club downtown. Turnout was great, especially considering how late the event actually came together and how crummy the Twins have been. Most importantly, we helped Lindsay Guentzel raise a bunch of money for the Leukemia and Lymphona Society; big ups to Lindsay for her outstanding work for this deserving cause.

I also picked up one of the latest offerings from the apparel gurus over at DiamondCentric (progenitors of the famed "Thome Is My Homey" t-shirt, among countless others). Titled "Game Six," the design commemorates one of the greatest moments in franchise history, with a silhouette of Kirby Puckett pumping his fist next to the numbers 1991. It's printed on a high-quality triblend material that you can wear out as well as to games. In fact, this shirt has instantly become the nicest article of clothing I own, and I plan to be married in it one day. (OK, I'm kidding, but it's seriously a damn comfy shirt.)

At $20, Game Six is a must-own for Puckett fans all over. Make sure to check out the rest of DiamondCentric's unique Twins apparel as well.

Butera Overload

Last week, I expressed concern that Joe Mauer was more hurt than he or the team was letting on, and that various bumps and bruises were largely responsible for his disappointing numbers over the first few months of the season.

His recent playing time patterns have only helped confirm those fears. Since I posted my column about Mauer last Thursday, he has caught only three of the Twins' seven games. Twice he has sat out, and twice he has served as designated hitter. That's not the type of usage we're accustomed to seeing for the former MVP, who -- when healthy -- is typically behind the plate for the vast majority of the Twins' games.

To be clear, giving Mauer a break from time to time is necessary. And I don't mind using him in the DH spot on occasion. But there seems to be a perception that the Twins aren't hurting themselves too much by feeding more and more starts to Drew Butera. That's just not the case.

Butera is arguably (maybe not even arguably) the worst hitter in all of the major leagues. After posting a miserable .560 OPS as a 25-year-old in Triple-A last year, he has gone on to hit .192/.211/.301 for the Twins this year, with five extra-base hits and one walk in 83 plate appearances. An out-making machine with minimal power, Butera is an enormous liability whose offensive production roughly mirrors what one would expect from a pitcher in the National League. When he's starting and Mauer's at DH, as was the case last night, it means that the Twins are replacing Jim Thome or Jason Kubel with Butera in the lineup. There are no words to fully describe the size of this drop-off.

The Twins' stated position for the increased playing time for Butera is that the team's starters like pitching to him, especially Carl Pavano. There are indications that Butera could even serve as Pavano's personal catcher for the remainder of the season. I don't think I buy the notion.

While it's true that Pavano has performed well over his last few starts with Butera behind the plate, and also true that Pavano was roughed up the last time he pitched to Mauer, it's important to point out that the ugly start came in Toronto against the power-laden Blue Jays lineup. That's about as unfavorable of a match-up as you can find for Carl Pavano, and I'm thinking it's more largely responsible for the mustachioed hurler's struggles than who was receiving the pitches. Especially when you consider that Pavano's two strong starts before the Toronto shellacking -- an outing against the Rays in which he allowed two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings and a complete game shutout against the Mets in New York -- both came with Mauer behind the plate.

Meanwhile, Francisco Liriano didn't seem to have any issues throwing to Mauer on Monday night or during his stellar outing against the White Sox just after the All-Star break. Nor did Kevin Slowey seem to be limited by Mauer's presence when he hurled six innings of one-run ball on Monday night.

Indeed, differences between Butera's and Mauer's game-calling ability seem mostly anecdotal and reactionary, especially considering that Mauer has won Gold Gloves in both of the past two seasons and has often been lauded for his work behind the plate in the past. If a difference between the two exists, it doesn't come close to making up for the gargantuan offensive drop-off that the Twins experience when Butera is in the lineup.

Of course, the Twins have still been playing pretty well lately, owing largely to some fairly pitiful competition. Indeed, it could be that Ron Gardenhire is taking advantage of this soft spot in the Twins' schedule to get the banged-up Mauer some much needed rest in preparation for the stretch run. Perhaps the catcher's offensive outburst on Tuesday night reflects that the rest is paying off. If that's the case, I take my hat off to Gardy, who may be employing a brilliant managerial strategy.

However, if he truly believes that the Twins are ever a better team with Butera in the lineup and Mauer at DH, he's loony. Mauer loses a great deal of his value when he's playing at DH, particularly when his back-up hits like a pitcher. If this trend of more frequently using Mauer in the designated hitter spot continues through the rest of the season, the Twins could be in some trouble.

My suspicion, though, is that all this rhetoric from the Twins' coaches about Butera's great chemistry with the pitchers is mostly a front, and that the team doesn't want to admit that their newly re-signed star player is badly in need of some additional time away from catching duties. If that's the case, I have no problem with Mauer getting a little extra rest so that he'll be more effective when the Twins get back to playing legitimate clubs.

I just wish that the answer wasn't playing the league's worst-hitting position player nearly half the time. How about some starts behind the plate for Jose Morales?

Familiar Headaches

Last season, the second spot in the batting order was an enormous liability for the Twins. The crucial lineup position produced an execrable .232/.272/.326 hitting line when occupied by anyone other than Joe Mauer. That means that when Mauer, the league's finest hitter, was batting third, the players in front of him were making outs about 73 percent of the time. It was depressing.

This ineptitude prompted me to posit back in early spring training that the signing of free agent Orlando Hudson late in the offseason was bound to be Bill Smith's most impactful winter move. Sure enough, Hudson was an absolute revelation in the two-spot through the first two months of the season, batting .300 with an outstanding .377 on-base percentage while chipping in a bit of power as well, as attested by his three homers and .421 slugging percentage. That's production that we're just not accustomed to seeing from that spot in the batting order.

Unfortunately, an outfield collision with Denard Span at the end of May has put Orlando Hudson on the shelf for the first half of June, and in his absence we're experiencing some familiar headaches at the top of the lineup. Rather than simply shifting Mauer into the No. 2 spot and moving everyone else up a spot, Ron Gardenhire has elected to cycle different lousy middle infielders through the two-hole, writing in either J.J. Hardy, Matt Tolbert or Trevor Plouffe each day. The results have been disastrous. With Hudson gone in June, the team's No. 2 hitters entered last night's game having gone 4-for-47, good for a batting average of .085. They'd not managed one extra-base hit. They'd struck out 13 times and drawn four walks. They'd crossed the plate only four times in 12 games despite having Mauer and Justin Morneau behind them in the lineup. Tolbert had a solid performance in last night's blowout victory, homering and walking twice, but that doesn't change the fact that it has been a problem.

Gardenhire's stubborn fixation on keeping a middle infielder in the second lineup spot has been a major source of frustration for me over the years and it continues to this day. Some think I blow the issue out of proportion, but having an automatic out jammed in the middle of all your best hitters is clearly detrimental to run production, and the Twins simply haven't been producing many runs this month. Obviously, Gardenhire is handcuffed to some degree by the wrist injuries that have ravaged his middle infielders, but sticking three of the team's worst hitters in one of the most important positions in the lineup is absolutely not the answer.

It's not like Gardenhire doesn't want the team to win, and I find it impossible to believe that he doesn't notice how consistently these players have been failing to get the job done in front of the team's best hitters. I'd think that at some point he'd finally start resisting the urge to write one of the team's no-hit backup infielders into that lineup spot, yet he just keeps doing it, as demonstrated by Tolbert's presence there last night.

If Gardenhire's oft-stated excuses were once valid, they're not anymore. He claims he wants to have players in the No. 2 spot who can "handle the bat." If the guys he's trotting out there can handle the bat so well, one would think that they'd be able to get a hit once every 10 at-bats. They're not moving runners over, they're not getting on base and they're not working great at-bats. They're just making outs at a catastrophic rate and killing potential rallies.

Gardenhire says he doesn't want to throw everyone else out of their rhythm by moving people all over the lineup but this offense could use a shake-up. They scored a total of six runs in three games at home over the weekend. Mauer responded well to hitting in the two-spot last year (he hit .398 in 33 games there) so sliding him up should be an option. And if Gardenhire refuses to remove Mauer from the No. 3 spot, he should consider Delmon Young, who's been the team's hottest hitter. Even Nick Punto has proven to be less of a black hole than Tolbert and Plouffe.

The lingering injuries that are affecting Hudson and Hardy have put Gardenhire in a tough spot when it comes to constructing lineups, without a doubt. But a great manager adjusts to tough circumstances and makes move to keep the team on track. Gardenhire has not been making those adjustments, and the team's struggles to score runs over the past few weeks have been -- at least partially -- a reflection of that.

No Hook Needed for Cuddyer

Michael Cuddyer has a notorious reputation around the Twins clubhouse as an amateur magician. This season, though, his only trick has been creating two outs in one at-bat. Cuddyer leads the league in double plays grounded into with 12, and is currently on pace to shatter the all-time record of 36 set by Jim Rice back in 1984.

Double plays create more misdirected anger amongst fans than perhaps any other play in baseball. Yes, the twin killing is a frustrating outcome for an offense, as it wastes base runners and murders rallies. But, unlike a strikeout, the double play is not an obvious and blatant failure by the batter -- typically these are hard-hit balls that happen to roll right into an infielder's glove. Since batters can't really control exactly where a batted ball is going to go, the difference between a rally-extending hit through the hole and a morale-crushing DP is often a matter of luck. Cuddyer's luck this year has not been good.

Certainly, there's nothing in his numbers to suggest that the spike in double plays is a direct result of anything Cuddyer is doing wrong. He's not hitting the ball on the ground more; in fact, his 41.4 percent ground ball rate would be the lowest of his entire career. He's not even hitting into double plays at an astonishingly high rate; as Aaron Gleeman noted today, Cuddyer does not even rank among baseball's top ten in ground ball rate.

The chief culprit for Cuddyer's huge GIDP figure is abundant opportunity. When you happen to hit behind Justin Morneau, who leads the American League in on-base percentage and ranks second in walks, you're going to be batting quite often with a runner on first base. The GIDP bug would likely be biting anyone hitting behind Morneau with even a remote penchant for putting the ball on the ground. As such, the increasingly popular suggestion that Delmon Young -- who had been swinging a pretty good bat recently -- should be moved up to the fifth spot in the order to cut down on the double plays is flawed. Young is a far more GB-heavy hitter than Cuddyer and if he were hitting behind Morneau you can believe he'd be racking up the twin killings as well.

Ultimately, regardless of their recent trends, Cuddyer is a better hitter than Young and is the best right-handed hitter in the Twins lineup. His historical success against left-handed pitching makes him a good fit between Morneau and Jason Kubel (or Jim Thome), so there's no reason to believe Cuddyer should be moved out of that spot just because he has been slumping for a couple weeks. Let's not forget that in April, he posted a strong .825 OPS while leading the team in RBI. Clearly he can succeed in this role and shifting him down in the batting order would be nothing more than an overreaction to a slump.

With that being said, there's no denying that Cuddyer has been having a tough time lately, and it sure seems like he could stand to take a day off.

Bad Gardy

The lineups for tonight's tilt against the Indians have been released, and a quick glance at Ron Gardenhire's lineup has confirmed my fears: Delmon Young is starting in left field, and Jim Thome is on the bench.

This is egregious because Cleveland's starter in the game is Justin Masterson, a grounder-inducing righty who delivers from a three-quarters slot. Almost without exception, pitchers that throw from this angle are extremely vulnerable to opposite-handed batters (think Pat Neshek) and Masterson is certainly no exception. During his career, left-handed hitters have posted an OPS nearly 300 points higher than righties against him. That's not a platoon split, it's a chasm. It's an enormous, glaring number that should make the decision to bench a player like Young -- who already hits the ball on the ground too often and has always struggled to hit right-handed pitching -- an absolute no-brainer.

When Gardenhire made a similarly misguided decision earlier this month, I pointed out that the thinking behind his decision was "a significant flaw in Gardy's managerial approach, and one that is likely to manifest repeatedly throughout the season." Here, we see it again, in an even more inexcusable situation. Like last time, this is but one lineup decision and odds are that it won't be the deciding factor in tonight's game, but we're seeing a manager overlooking blatantly obvious statistical evidence and failing to put key players in a position to succeed.

Second to None

The Twins made a number of quality additions over the course of the offseason that should enable them to improve on problem areas as they move forward into the 2010. JJ Hardy should make the Twins better at the shorstop position if he can rebound even moderately from a rough 2009 campaign. Jim Thome adds a veteran power threat that was amiss on the bench last season. Clay Condrey provides another solid righty option out of a bullpen that was at times so thin that it forced the team to rely on Bobby Keppel in key situations.

Given the flaws on last year's team, though, no offseason acquisition by Bill Smith looms larger than the most recent: the signing of Orlando Hudson.

Hudson overtakes the reigns at second base, a position from which the Twins received an abysmal .209/.302/.267 hitting line last season. Provided that he's healthy, Hudson -- a .282/.348/.431 career hitter -- will almost certainly improve significantly on that number this year. But teams can live with a poor hitter at second base, provided they bury him at the bottom of the order and place competent hitters around him on the field. Indeed, Hudson's most important function might be filling the second spot in the batting order, which was a major liability for this team a year ago.

In The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, noted sabermetrician Tom Tango teamed up with Mitchel Litchman and Andrew Dolphin to analyze strategic decision-making in baseball based on years of historical data. One chapter in the book addresses lineup construction, and perhaps the most striking conclusion drawn by the authors is that the No. 2 spot in the order is actually more important to run production than the No. 3 spot. To quote a paragraph from the book:

The run values of each event favor the #2 hitter over the #3 hitter by .02 to .03 runs. And this is across the board, except for the HR (which is even). Likewise, the run values of the #4 hitter's events are all higher than those of the #3 hitter. This means that the #3 hitter should be worse than the #2 and #4 hitters. For most teams, the gap in talent between the #3 and #2 slots is enormous and that talent is concenterated in the #3 slot. This is simply wrong.

Many people disagree with this blatant rejection of traditional baseball thought, and in truth the disparity in "run values" between the two lineup spots as outlined in the book is so small that even if you buy into the authors' reasoning, there's still no call to disparage managers who elect to bat their best hitter third. But what's clear from this study and others -- not to mention common sense, really -- is that having a strong hitter in the two-hole is highly important. The No. 2 hitter figures to receive the second-most plate appearances of any player on the team and also generally bats in front of the club's very best hitters.

Last year, the Twins' No. 2 hitters combined for a .262/.306/.394 line, which is pretty weak even without accounting for the fact that Joe Mauer made 142 plate appearances in that spot (posting a spectacular 1158 OPS). If you remove Mauer's at-bats, the Twins got an absolutely dreadful .232/.272/.326 line from the second spot in the order. It goes without saying that having that kind of production directly in front of the league's best hitter (as Mauer was typically batting third when he wasn't batting second, with the exception of April when he didn't play) is beyond unacceptable.

Hudson has seen his performance fluctuate some over the years, but he has been steady in the OBP department as of late. In each of the past four seasons, he has reached base at a clip of .354 or higher, putting him well above the league average. If he can produce at close to that rate while also providing his usual strong batting average and solid power output, Hudson will give the Twins a massive upgrade in front of Mauer.

Ron Gardenhire loves to write players who can bunt and execute the hit-and-runs into the second spot in his lineups. Certainly, Hudson is a guy who can do those things. But he's also a very competent hitter overall, and his presence could give Mauer a legitimate shot at posting his first 100-RBI campaign.

I slammed my head into my desk last year every time Orlando Cabrera, Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto or whoever else occupying the two-spot ended a rally by making the third out while Mauer stood in the on-deck circle. So, at the very least, Hudson's addition to the lineup should be beneficial for my forehead.

Perpetual Punto

It's amazing how predictable some things are.

During the All-Star break, I put together a bit of a rant about Nick Punto. I railed on his ghastly play up to that point in the season, and lamented that "no matter how poor his performance gets, he will seemingly always maintain a starting role on this club." Lo and behold, despite having batted just .226 since the day I wrote that article, Punto has started 15 of the team's 18 games. And while the acquisition of Orlando Cabrera would have seemingly nudged the underperforming Punto out of his starting job at shortstop and onto the bench, the move has instead only slid Punto over to second base, where he has started three of the team's four games since Cabrera's arrival.

Meanwhile, Brendan Harris has started just one of the Twins' past six games, and since Ron Gardenhire remains steadfastly opposed to letting him play second base, it appears that Harris has been essentially banished from any type of middle-infield duty. I guess that's what he gets for outhitting Punto by 56 points while posting a better fielding percentage than either Punto or Cabrera at short.

In the previously linked rant, I noted that Punto had "kept his offensive game afloat to some degree with a respectable .319 on-base percentage, buoyed by an impressive walk total of 32," adding that he had drawn an impressive 10 walks in 33 July plate appearances at that point. Yet, I went on to opine that there was no way this would last, stating that "there's simply no reason for pitchers to throw him anything but strikes until he shows he can actually hit them with any type of authority." In 59 plate appearances since then, Punto has drawn four walks and posted a .276 on-base percentage. In his past 37 plate appearances he's drawn exactly one walk, good for a .250 on-base percentage.

Predicting this outcome doesn't make me any sort of masterful prognosticator. This turn of events was pretty easy to foresee, which makes it all the more frustrating that Gardenhire willfully elects to ignore basic facts in order to keep writing his favorite pet into the starting lineup. I am not easily driven to frustration with matters like this, but this team is in the middle of a pennant race and needs all the help it can get; Gardenhire's stubborn refusal to take Punto out of the starting lineup is driving me close to insanity. Benching Harris in favor of Punto against left-handed pitchers -- as Gardy has the past two nights -- is particularly inexcusable, considering that Harris is batting .306 against southpaws this year and holds a solid 787 lifetime OPS against them.

I'm not saying Harris is having a great year, and I'm not saying he's the answer at second. But he is at the very least a competent hitter and if he's starting over Punto, this lineup suddenly has only one real hole. Does this trade-off lead to a defensive downgrade? Sure, but the negative effects can be reduced when Harris plays on days that a fly ball pitcher is on the mound, and certainly no one is saying that he needs to be starting every game. I don't buy that Harris' difficulties turning a double play here and there are going to cost the Twins more than Punto's constant rally-killing at-bats.

If the Twins truly want to stop second base from being a liability before this season is over, their best bet might come in the form of Steve Tolleson or Mark Grudzielanek. Until one of those players is deemed ready for major-league action, though, Gardenhire must discontinue his habit of starting Punto there every single day. Punto has his merits, but he's better served as a utility player and Harris' performance has not warranted a permanent benching when the alternative options are taken into account.

Span's Spins Spell Trouble

With two on and one out in the second inning on Tuesday night, Denard Span stepped up to the plate for his second at-bat of the game. The outfielder fouled off the first two pitches he saw from Brett Anderson, then took a ball. On a 1-2 count, he swung wildly at a seemingly hittable pitch on the outside part of the plate, missing it by several inches. It was one of the most awkward swings we've seen from a Twins batter this year and certainly an uncharacteristic one for Span, who has great hand-eye coordination and rarely swings and misses. It was almost like Span had swung at the pitch with his eyes closed.

As it turns out, that wasn't far from the truth. Span later told reporters that he was suffering from dizziness during the game and "just didn't even see the ball" during the aforementioned at-bat. Shortly after the ugly strikeout, Span was removed from the game, and yesterday he traveled back to Minneapolis to see a specialist about this recurring dizziness issue, which caused him to miss a pair of games back in late May as well.

This is peculiar ailment and Span seems as mystified about it as any of us. He notes that the dizziness may be attributable to his offseason Lasik surgery, which was performed on one eye and not the other (a fact I was unaware of) but says he's never experienced problems like this while playing baseball in the past. Said Span: "It's kind of scary."

There's plenty of reason for Twins fans to be scared, too, if this issue ends up keeping Span out of the lineup for an extended period of time. The huge success experienced by Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer and the strong slugging performances by Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede this year have somewhat reduced the attention paid to Span's successful sophomore season. Many were skeptical as to whether Span would be able to back up his outstanding rookie campaign, which seemingly came out of nowhere, but he has continued to be an anchor at the top of the Twins lineup. With his abilities to consistently take lengthy at-bats, draw walks at a solid rate, steal bases and hit well against all types of pitchers, Span has essentially been a prototypical leadoff man, something this franchise has been seeking for some time.

If Span is out of the lineup, the Twins lack inspiring options to fill that top spot. Carlos Gomez has been Ron Gardenhire's default choice in the past, but placing a 587 OPS in a position to receive more at-bats than any other player on the team is terribly misguided. Other players who would seemingly fall into Gardenhire's leadoff mold, such as Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert, are also offensive liabilities who belong nowhere near the top of the order. Mauer's on-base skills make him a logical choice to bat leadoff, but that's simply not a move Gardenhire would make.

Hopefully Span and his doctor can reach a conclusion as to what this lingering issue is and get it taken care of. He's been so solid and consistent in the leadoff spot that some fans may have come to take his contributions this year for granted, but be assured: you'll notice his absence in a hurry.

***

This afternoon I'm heading to Chicago, where I'll be catching baseball at Wrigley Field this weekend. I'd like to try and file a report of some kind this weekend, but you may not be hearing back from me until Monday or Tuesday. Enjoy the weekend!

Big Ball

Those who follow the Twins are undoubtedly aware that this is a team that has long prided itself on playing "small ball." You'll often hear the manager and members of the front office talk about "manufacturing runs"; moving players around the bases with things like sacrifice bunts, hit-and-runs and situational hits.

Last year, the Twins managed to rank third in the American League in runs scored despite ranking dead last in homers with 111 and fifth-to-last in team slugging percentage. While members of the Twins brain-trust might try and convince you that this is an example of successful small ball in action, the fact is that the Twins' high run total was buoyed by a ridiculous .305 batting average with runners in scoring position that would be nearly impossible to replicate. It seemed clear to most observers that the Twins would be in for a serious regression in runs scored unless they could start hitting for more power.

Sure enough, the performance of Twins hitters with runners in scoring position has come back to Earth in a major way, dropping by over 20 points over the first two months of the 2009 season. Yet, the Twins have still managed to rank in the top half of the AL in runs per game, with 5.28 (a substantial increase over their 5.09 average last year). The reason is pretty clear: the long ball.

Entering play yesterday, only three teams in the American League had hit more home runs than the Twins. This bears repeating, because it is almost hard to believe for longtime followers of this team. We're through nearly two months of the season, and the Minnesota Twins rank fourth in the AL in home runs. They have hit a total of 55 home runs. Twenty-one of those have come with runners on base, and four have come with the bases loaded.

Members of the Twins front office can drone on all they want about the value of small ball and manufacturing runs, but there's no question that multi-run homers are the quickest way to put runs on the board in a hurry. Down by multiple runs late in a game, it used to be that the Twins would have to rely on stringing together a prolonged rally with several consecutive hits. Now that over half the lineup represents a credible home run threat, they're able to make up late deficits with a swing of the bat.

Tuesday night's game presents a great example of the value of the long ball. The Twins were going against a tough pitcher in Jon Lester who they weren't likely to get a ton of hits against. After falling behind 1-0 in the top of the fifth, the Twins managed to scrape a couple runs across in the bottom half to gain a slim lead. When Justin Morneau followed with a laser beam down the right field line that cleared the baggy for a three-run homer, the Twins suddenly had a comfortable four-run cushion, which they protected rather easily en route to a victory. The night before, Joe Mauer turned a seemingly insurmountable three-run deficit against Jonathan Papelbon to a one-run deficit with a homer to right field; under past circumstances, the Twins would have likely needed a lengthy rally against the elite reliever to get even the two runs across and make a game out of it.

Here in its last year as their home stadium, the Twins are turning the Metrodome back into the "Homerdome," a moniker which has seemed misplaced over the past several years. When it comes to scoring runs, that's no small thing.

***

On a final note, I received an email from someone named Paul Paquette last night with the following message: "Hey check out my song about Kirby Puckett and a turkey bucket." Naturally, this piqued my interest. After listening to it, I feel it's my duty to share with you the link to this wonderful work of musical genius. Here's the link. Have a good weekend.

Word From Up Top?

Having watched Ron Gardenhire manage this team for the past seven years, we've grown pretty familiar with his tendencies and preferences. We know his tactics, we know how he likes to fill out a lineup, we know how he likes to utilize his bullpen. We also definitely know that there is a particular type of player that Gardenhire especially likes, and that he is generally much more likely to have a longer leash with players who fall into this mold.

Gardenhire, much like the Twins as an organization, values good defensive players. He likes guys that play hard and hustle. If he likes a player, you'll frequently hear him refer to that player as "scrappy," or you'll see him talk about how the player "battles his tail off." Gardenhire also likes players who have a positive influence in the clubhouse. Offensive production often takes a back seat to these factors in the mind of the Twins' manager, which is why Nick Punto remained a regular player for the entirety of his disastrous 2007 season. It's also why Matt Tolbert has immediately seized the starting second base job and second spot in the lineup while Brendan Harris still must fight for playing time. I've always figured that Gardy's affinity for this type of player is based on the fact that he himself was a light-hitting hustle guy when he played in the big leagues.

Given Gardenhire's historical tendencies, I'm having a very difficult time understanding why he has seemingly elected to make Delmon Young his starting left fielder while relegating Carlos Gomez to a bench role as a fourth outfielder and late-game defensive replacement. Obviously I think Gomez should be the team's starting center fielder, and I don't suspect that Gardenhire would agree for the same reasons. I doubt he's aware that Wins Above Replacement (a statistic which incorporates both offense and defense) shows Gomez as an above-average player up to this point, with his advantage over Young being roughly equivalent to Justin Morneau's advantage over Michael Cuddyer. I also doubt that Gardenhire knows -- or cares -- that there are articles out there concluding that Denard Span is worth 37 runs over Young in left field. But being that Gomez plays fantastic defense, hustles all over the field, maintains an enthusiastic clubhouse demeanor and is built to do all the little things (bunting, stealing, etc.), it baffles me that Gardenhire is choosing to bench Gomez in favor of Young, who doesn't seem to embody any of those qualities. There's one theory I keep coming back to: he's not.

During the offseason, it was widely reported that the Twins were aggressively shopping Young. Several reporters who covered the winter meetings got the sense that the chances of Young being on the Twins' Opening Day roster this season were outweighed by the chances he wouldn't be. Of course, he didn't end up being moved, and the reason for that could very well be that no other general managers were offering much for the former top prospect, who was coming off his second straight disappointing major-league season.

So, perhaps the Twins are still interested in moving Young. And perhaps the knowledge that Young has no chance of ramping up his trade value while sitting on the bench has motivated Bill Smith and the front office to influence Gardenhire's decision-making process. If regular playing time could put Young on some sort of hot streak, it might pique the interest of teams searching for a right-handed bat.

There are plenty of smart people who disagree with my opinion that Gomez should be ahead of Young on the outfield depth chart, and there have been a number of reasonable points used in support of that particular view. But none of these reasons seem like the type that would be used by the Gardenhire that I've come to know. I've got to believe there's more going on here than meets the eye.

Lining Up With Mauer

There had been some rumblings that the Twins were considering activating Joe Mauer earlier than expected -- perhaps as soon as today -- but it now appears that they'll stick with the original plan and bring him back on Friday in time for a three-game weekend series against the Royals.

Along with a fair amount of well warranted excitement for fans, Mauer's return will bring with it a number of interesting decisions for the Twins brain trust. The first thing they'll need to decide is which player to remove from the 25-man roster in order to make space for Mauer to come off the disabled list. Jose Morales, who is hitting .361 after going 5-for-8 in his past two games, has become a popular choice to stick around as a third catcher upon Mauer's return. Yet, this wouldn't be the correct choice for Morales or for the team. With Mauer unlikely to spend much (if any) time at DH, there will probably only be about eight at-bats per week available at the catcher position -- splitting that between two players is pointless. Morales is a nice guy to have in the organization and looks to be the backup of the future, but he should be playing more regularly than he would be as a third catcher with the big-league club right now. Unless Mike Redmond is placed on the DL (which wouldn't seem to be such a bad idea considering how beat up he looks), Morales should and will be the odd man out upon Mauer's return.

The more interesting dilemma posed by Mauer's activation is how to work the catcher into the lineup. Alexi Casilla has been a mess in the No. 2 spot, leading one to speculate that Mauer might slip in there and knock Casilla to the bottom of the order. Doing so would make sense, since Mauer seems a good for for the two-hole and a 1-4 order of Denard Span, Mauer, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel would put the Twins' four best hitters in position to receive the most at-bats.

The obvious flaw with this arrangement, however, is that it puts four consecutive lefties at the top of the Twins' lineup. Even when the Twins are facing a right-handed starter, this is a bad idea, because it makes the Twins extremely vulnerable to left-handed relievers late in close games. We saw how harmful this can be on Sunday, when both Morneau and Kubel got an opportunity to bat with the bases loaded and the Twins down by two and were both blown away by Cleveland LOOGY Tony Sipp. While Span, Mauer, Morneau and -- to a lesser extent -- Kubel can all generally hold their own against lefties, they're all much more susceptible to tough left-handed relievers than the typical right-handed hitter and there needs to be some break between the four to protect against situational lefty relievers.

So, who can fill this role? The list of potential candidates is underwhelming to say the least. Casilla, thanks to his high placement in the lineup, currently ranks fifth on the team in plate appearances, which has magnified his extremely poor production. Nick Punto has gotten on base at a decent clip up to this point (.344), but his overall offensive production (.236 AVG and .255 SLG) have not been suitable for a No. 2 hitter. Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede don't profile as No. 2 hitters in general, and certainly not with the way they've been hitting thus far. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez have been dreadful at the plate.

Those are pretty much all of your right-handed options, and up to this point none of them look remotely deserving of a spot near the top of the lineup. If I were making the decision, I suppose at this point I'd probably try Punto in the two-spot since he's at least been taking decent at-bats, while maybe trying Brendan Harris in that spot on days when he gets into the lineup over Punto or Casilla. That's not an ideal situation, though, and unless one of the team's struggling right-handed hitters can step up, putting together a reasonable 1-5 is going to be a challenge. For lack of appealing right-handed options at the No. 2 spot, Ron Gardenhire might just end up writing in the four lefties back-to-back, even though he rightfully despises that notion.

Left Out

After recording impressive victories on Friday and Saturday night, the Twins fell to the Indians 4-2 in yesterday's series finale to leave Cleveland with a series victory rather than a sweep. It was a good weekend for the Twins, but it's not too difficult to see why they were unable to pick up a win yesterday against left-handed starter Aaron Laffey.

Coming into the game, here were the numbers for the Twins' right-handed middle-of-the-lineup hitters against southpaws:

Michael Cuddyer: .188/.272/.385
Delmon Young: .188/.235/.375
Joe Crede: .286/.333/.500

Only Crede has been having any success against lefties so far in this young season. In total, the three hitters were 2-for-11 in the game, with both the hits being singles. The Twins need these three to step up their performance against left-handers so the offense won't be completely screwed on days where the big lefty bats -- Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel -- struggle as they did yesterday.

Of course, the impetus also falls on the team's other right-handed hitters, such as Brendan Harris (hitting .267 vs. LHP), Carlos Gomez (hitting .143 vs. LHP). The team's regular switch-hitters, Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla, have gone a combined 1-for-36 against southpaws.

Struggling against left-handers is nothing new for the Twins, but it's really not excusable given with the number of right-handed batters they can trot out against any lefty. Joe Mauer's return should provide an overall jolt to the lineup but shouldn't be expected to help them specifically in this area. Instead, the responsibility falls on guys like Cuddyer and Young to do their job and step up when left-handed pitchers are suppressing the team's big lefty bats.

Shaken and Stirred

While it was encouraging to see the Twins get back on the winning track this past weekend with a series sweep over the Angels, the bullpen remains a heavy concern. Twins relievers coughed up five runs between the seventh and eighth innings on Friday night, and weren't called upon in any remotely critical situations for the rest of the series as Kevin Slowey handed a 9-2 lead to the bullpen after seven innings on Saturday and Glen Perkins handed a two-run lead directly to the closer Joe Nathan on Sunday. Still, through 14 games, Twins relievers have combined to allow a 7.03 ERA and 829 opponents' OPS this season. It's been ugly.

The beleaguered relief corps took another hit yesterday when it was announced that Jesse Crain has been placed on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation. Crain struggled with his control on Friday night when he issued three walks and was charged with four runs over just 1/3 of an inning, but up to that point he'd easily been the team's best reliever outside of Nathan, posting a 1.59 ERA and 6-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing just one hit over his first six appearances. In spite of his struggles on Friday night, Crain was shaping up as a rare reliable arm in the Twins' pen, flashing a mid-90s fastball and an ability to miss bats. While La Velle E. Neal III reports that examinations of Crain's shoulder have revealed "slight inflammation ... nothing serious," one almost has to be alarmed to hear about any discomfort in Crain's right shoulder considering that he underwent reconstructive surgery for his labrum and rotator cuff less than two years ago. One also could be excused for being a bit dubious of this team's initial diagnoses of shoulder injuries considering how badly they missed the mark on Boof Bonser a few months ago.

Replacing Crain on the Twins roster for the time being will be Jose Mijares, who had a terrible spring but looks to have gotten back on track in Triple-A, where he allowed just two hits and zero walks while striking out four over 6 1/3 scoreless innings. Mijares adds a second left-hander to complement Craig Breslow and also could be a potent late-inning option if he returns anywhere close to the form he showed last September, but it's tough to know what you're getting from him considering how up-and-down his performances have been over the past couple years.

The other bullpen shakeup occurring over the past few days the move to was designate Philip Humber for assignment while using his open roster spot to claim Juan Morillo off waivers. Now, I will say that I'm not necessarily a fan of removing Humber from the roster as long as it means losing him from the organization (which is very likely). The 26-year-old right-hander didn't perform well this spring and hasn't looked good at all in a few regular-season appearances, but I tend to be very patient with once-promising players who dealt with major injuries, which is why I've been stubbornly hyping Jason Kubel for three years running, why I've been fairly patient with Crain, and why I will also be patient with Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser when they return. With that being the case, I still think Humber has some upside and don't like the idea of losing him for nothing, but I'm also willing to admit that his upside is probably limited at this point and losing him is unlikely to come back haunt the Twins in a major way. I certainly think he was more deserving of a spot on the roster than R.A. Dickey or Luis Ayala, but at this point the difference between those three pitchers might be negligible.

Anyway, back to Morillo. One of my chief concerns entering this season was a lack of right-handed power arms in the bullpen, thanks to season-costing injuries to Neshek and Bonser. That concern would be magnified if Crain's current ailment were to turn out to be something serious. Well, when you look at Morillo, "right-handed power arm" is one term that could pretty accurately describe him. Morillo is a fire-baller, and he displayed that in his Twins debut on Saturday night when he fired fastballs across the plate at speeds topping 95 mph on his way to a scoreless inning. Indeed, as Aaron Gleeman notes, Morillo has averaged 96.5 mph with his fastball over his brief major-league career, easily topping any member of the current Twins staff and in fact ranking as one of the hardest fastballs in all the league.

The main issue for Morillo has been harnessing that devastating fastball and throwing it in the strike zone on a consistent basis. Morillo has averaged 5.4 walks per nine innings over the course of his minor-league career, and last year in Triple-A he issued 56 walks in 59 2/3 innings for a ghastly 8.4 BB/9IP rate. In spite of his solid showing on Saturday night, I'm sure it won't be long before we catch a glimpse of the command issues that caused the Rockies to sour on him. Adding an erratic arm like that to a bullpen that has already been dealing with some serious control issues doesn't sound like a recipe for relief, but Morillo will initially assume Humber's role as a low-leverage backend guy, and given the Twins' history of turning discarded relievers with historically mediocre control into useful bullpen parts (Dennys Reyes and Craig Breslow come to mind), this certainly seems like a worthwhile project. If Rick Anderson can find a way to improve Morillo's control even modestly, he could turn into a powerful weapon for a Twins team that currently lacks hard throwers outside of Nathan.

For the time being, the Twins have subbed out Crain and Humber for Mijares and Morillo. The latter two both have electric arms and considerable upside, but also have struggled to consistently throw strikes in their young careers. They'll now jump into a bullpen desperate for quality innings, in an organization known for teaching control. It would seem that both are exactly where they need to be in order to succeed.

Taking the Lead

In nine seasons since the turn of the century, the Twins have posted a winning record seven times and made the playoffs four times while watching their players hoist two Cy Young Awards and one MVP. During this run, the Twins have found a great deal of success and featured many great players. Yet, one thing has always seemingly been missing, and it is a quintessential component of any quality baseball club. The Twins have had their dominant aces, their automatic closers, their outstanding No. 3 hitters and their run-producing cleanup men, but during this span they have always been unable to pinpoint a true, great leadoff hitter.

Since they traded Chuck Knoblauch after the 1998 season, locating a true, prototypical leadoff man has been a difficult task for the Twins. A great leadoff hitter ought to possess a specific set of skills. He should be patient and willing to take pitches. He should have great speed, so that he can move himself into scoring position with steals and score from second on singles. Most importantly, he should be able to reach base at an exceptional clip so he that he is frequently aboard for the team's most productive hitters in the middle of the lineup. A little power doesn't hurt, but isn't generally considered a requirement. In general, the leadoff man should just be a great hitter, because ultimately he'll get more chances to bat than any other player in the lineup.

When the Twins began their successful run at the beginning of the decade, their leadoff man was Cristian Guzman. Guzie had some success in those days, but with his poor .299 on-base percentage in 2000 and his mediocre .337 OBP in 2001, he was hardly the ideal candidate to receive the most at-bats on the team. Late in the '01 season, the Twins handed the leadoff gig to Matt Lawton, and he was actually pretty well-suited for it. Unfortunately, his time there was short, as he was shipped to the Mets in return for Rick Reed during the following offseason.

In 2002, the Twins inserted Jacque Jones in the leadoff spot. Jones had a very nice offensive season that year, batting .300/.341/.511, but as a free swinger with impressive power and a lack of top-end speed, he looked much more like a No. 3 hitter than a leadoff man. Jones held the top spot in the lineup throughout the '02 campaign and into 2003, but midway through that season the Twins determined that they needed a change at the top. So they traded Bobby Kielty for Shannon Stewart, who had spent the past five seasons as a high-caliber leadoff man for the Blue Jays. Stewart provided a jolt for the '03 Twins, getting on base at a .384 clip while hitting for solid average and power down the stretch. Stewart continued as an effective leadoff hitter in 2004, batting .304/.380/.447, but he was limited to just 92 games due to a foot injury. And while Stewart's offensive production was very good in his early days with the Twins, the excellent speed he'd shown earlier in his career was gone; Stewart was just 9-for-16 on stolen base attempts in 157 games between 2003 and 2004.

Injuries continued to derail Stewart in 2005 and his production took a dive. He spent most of the year in the leadoff spot, but saw his OBP dropped to .323 as his once-impressive plate discipline evaporated. After posting a 36-to-25 strikout-to-walk ratio with the Twins in 2003 and a 44-to-47 K/BB in 2004, Stewart fanned 73 times while drawing just 34 walks in '05. At the end of the season, the Twins were once again in search of a quality leadoff hitter.

Terry Ryan sought to solve the problem that winter by trading a pair of prospects for Luis Castillo. Earlier in his career, Castillo had been almost the perfect embodiment of a prototype leadoff hitter. Capable of batting from both sides of the plate, Castillo had a patient approach that routinely yielded on-base percentages in the high-300s, and was also an elite base-stealer as well as a Gold Glove defender. Yet, by the time the 30-year-old Castillo had joined the Twins, his knees had worn down and he was no longer the player he once was. In 2006, Castillo got on base at a .358 clip while swiping 25 bases -- solid yet unremarkable numbers for a leadoff man. In 2007, Castillo's knees were in even worse shape. He continued to display a good eye at the plate, but was visibly hobbled running down the first base line and had turned into an extreme chop hitter with virtually no power. The Twins dumped him midway through the season, allowing Jason Bartlett and Alexi Casilla to split leadoff duties down the stretch, though neither performed well enough to seize the spot.

Last year, the Twins opened the season with Carlos Gomez manning the leadoff slot. A tremendous athlete with potential to hit for power and perhaps more footspeed than any other player in the league, Gomez had some of the attributes one would look for in a top-of-the-order bat, but his complete lack of patience at the plate and his inability to reach base at even a respectable rate made him a poor candidate for the job.

By mid-July, Gomez's on-base percentage was hovering around .280 and it was clear to just about everyone that the time had come for a change at the top of the lineup. A replacement came in the form of Denard Span, who took the job and ran with it. After taking over leadoff duties on July 22, Span batted .282/.375/.424. In his major-league debut last season, Span displayed all those skills associated with a prototypical leadoff man. He displayed great patience and discipline, racking up nearly as many walks (50) as strikeouts (60) in 93 games. He flashed impressive speed, stealing 18 bases on 25 attempts. He even flashed some power, clubbing 29 extra-base hits in 347 at-bats. All this as a 24-year-old rookie still acclimating to big-league play.

Span enters the 2009 season as the de facto leadoff man. What remains to be seen is whether he can be a long-term fixture in that spot, or whether he'll fizzle out or be dealt to another team, as have nearly all his predecessors. There is some reason to be conservative in projecting Span, who carries a mostly underwhelming minor-league track record. Yet, Span's abrupt turnaround shows signs of legitimacy. After four unimpressive months in Triple-A to start the 2007 season, Span hit .330/.420/.417 with a notable increase in plate discipline, and he carried that momentum forward into an outstanding full 2008 campaign. While one should remain cautious in assessing Span's future, there is plenty of reason for optimism.

The Twins have had an awfully difficult time finding a legitimate player to fill their leadoff role, but in Span they might have a consistent, reliable option over several years. That's something they've lacked since Knoblauch's departure, and could be a key to taking the Twins lineup to the next level.

Improving in '09: The Offense

I have said on multiple occasions during this offseason that I think there's a fairly good chance that the Twins will be a better team overall in 2009 than they were in 2008 despite having made essentially zero moves to improve the roster over the course of the winter. This belief is seeded in the fact that the Twins' roster is overwhelmingly comprised of young players still learning their way through the majors, and history tells us that players like this often get better and better as they make adjustments and move toward their physical prime.

With a player like Torii Hunter in his later years with the Twins, we basically knew what to expect. Since Hunter had established himself at the big-league level, one could project with a fair amount of certainty the type of production Hunter would put forth on any given year, within given boundaries. The same is true for many of the veteran players populating opposing AL Central rosters. With 2,681 career at-bats, Justin Morneau is likely to be the most experienced starter in the Twins' 2009 lineup and the only player to have logged more than 2,500 big-league ABs. For comparison, the Indians (who I currently view as the division favorites) are likely to sport a lineup with at least five players that have surpassed the 2,500-AB threshold. The Tigers figure to feature six such players, the White Sox four.

Carlos Gomez, who served as Hunter's replacement in center field last year, has just one full season of major-league experience under his belt. With his raw physical tools and sizable upside, he's at an age where immense strides are possible and moderate strides are expected. Of course, it's also possible that Gomez fails to make the necessary adjustments and fizzles out with further exposure to major-league pitching and scouting reports.

With youthful and relatively inexperienced players filling the majority of their lineup, the Twins are playing the odds and hoping that the improvement outweighs the regression. Having finished just a game out of first place last year, even moderate overall improvement could make the difference. So today, I'll break down the probabilities of each projected offensive starter improving on his 2008 performance. Please note that these figures are pretty much arbitrary and not based on any mathematical formula -- they are simply educated guesses I've taken after judging all available information.

C - Joe Mauer
2008 Stats: .328/.413/.451, 9 HR, 85 RBI, 98 R
Mauer posted better numbers in 2006, so we know he's capable of improved production, but it's awfully hard to project a better line than the one posted above. If Mauer can begin to display some power while maintaining his elite BA/OBP numbers, he could conceivably take the next step and cement himself as the best player in the AL. It's more likely, however, that he struggles with injuries at some point during the season and takes (probably small) a step backward.
Probability of Improvement (PoI): 20 percent.



1B - Justin Morneau
2008 Stats: .300/.374/.499, 23 HR, 129 RBI, 97 R
For a few years in a row now, Morneau has carried excellent numbers into the final months of the season before limping through the final weeks and leaving his overall line at a less spectacular final point. Morneau has shown consistent improvement with his plate approach and, in my opinion, is likely to regain some of his power which regressed last year. He'll be 28 for the majority of the season, a prime age. I like his chances to finish with better numbers in 2009, though perhaps not drastically better.
PoI: 75 percent.



2B - Alexi Casilla
2008 Stats: .281/.333/.374, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 58 R
I go back and forth on Casilla. On the one hand, he's still only 24 years old and is an athletically gifted player with solid defensive skills. On the other hand, he hasn't shown much over the past couple years and I think he's being overrated by a lot of local fans. While Casilla provided a boost with his initial surge upon being called up last season, he posted a .591 OPS after returning from an injury in mid-August to finish with a final line was not particularly impressive, and he had played quite poorly in Triple-A prior to his May call-up. Casilla is young and his '08 line doesn't set a very high baseline, but I worry that the player we'll see this year will be the one we saw over the majority of the last two seasons and not just May-through-July of 2008.
PoI: 50 percent.



3B - Brendan Harris/Brian Buscher
2008 Stats (Harris): 265/.323/.394, 7 HR, 49 RBI, 57 R
2008 Stats (Buscher): 294/.340/.394, 4 HR, 47 RBI, 29 R
The indication has been that the Twins will platoon these players this season, a strategy which would take advantage of their abilities to hit opposite-armed pitchers and ideally maximize their offensive production. Buscher holds a .294/.354/.411 line against right-handers during his limited MLB experience, while Harris has managed a .295/.360/.440 line against southpaws. It is questionable whether Ron Gardenhire can actually implement a strict platoon, but if he can mostly shield these players against pitchers they're vulnerable against, the Twins should be able to improve on a .283/.330/.399 hitting line at third-base that included numerous brutal at-bats from Mike Lamb.
PoI (for 3B overall): 75 percent.



SS - Nick Punto
2008 Stats: .284/.344/.382, 2 HR, 28 RBI, 43 R
The numbers Punto posted last year were nearly identical to the ones he posted in 2006, and they're plenty solid for a solid defensive shortstop. Unfortunately, his numbers in both of those seasons were superior to his overall minor-league line, and given that he's 31 years old, I see only a slim chance of him building upon the numbers he posted last season. His brutal 2007 campaign reminds us that there's a lot of room to fall, but without the pressure of batting high in the order or playing an offense-oriented position, I think Punto should be able to keep his regression relatively small.
PoI: 10 percent.



LF - Denard Span
2008 Stats: .294/.387/.432, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 70 R
Span burst onto the season with an outstanding performance last year in his major-league debut, and his unimpressive minor-league track record suggests he'll have a very tough time repeating -- much less improving upon -- that feat. It does bear noting, however, that Span put up monster numbers in Triple-A last year and was also very good there during the second half of 2007. This turnaround in production, coupled with the fact that his patience and power looked pretty legitimate last year, lead me to believe more than most that he's capable of at least posting similar numbers in 2009. I don't think he's necessarily likely to improve, but I also don't think it's anywhere close to impossible.
PoI: 40 percent.

CF - Carlos Gomez
2008 Stats: .258/.296/.360, 7 HR, 59 RBI, 79 R
Gomez has major strides to make with his plate approach, and unfortunately he didn't make a whole lot of visible progress over the course of the season. Still, he put up far better numbers last year than he did in his major-league debut with the Mets in 2007, and at age 23 should certainly be expected to take another step in the right direction this year. Reports that he's been working hard to refine his strike zone control this offseason are encouraging. Gomez probably won't break out and reach his lofty potential this year, but I'd be very surprised if he didn't take a step in that direction.
PoI: 80 percent.

RF - Michael Cuddyer
2008 Stats: .249/.330/.369, 3 HR, 36 RBI, 30 R
Injuries limited Cuddyer to 71 games last year, and pretty clearly dampened his performance when he was able to get on the field. Cuddyer strikes me as the type of player who might decline quickly once he reaches a certain age, but he'll be 30 this year which still qualifies as a prime year. As long as he can stay healthy, there's very little chance he doesn't surpass last year's paltry numbers, and I'm assuming he'll be doing everything he can to stay healthy this year after dealing with frustrating ailments during both of the past two seasons.
PoI: 90 percent.

DH - Jason Kubel
2008 Stats: .272/.335/.471, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 74 R
After missing the entire 2005 season due to a major knee injury, Kubel has made steady improvement since returning to the Twins in 2006, seeing his OPS leap from 665 to 785 to 806. It could be that he peaked last year, but Kubel's fantastic minor-league numbers suggest that he has more upside remaining and with just 1,161 major-league at-bats he remains relatively young in terms of baseball experience even though he'll turn 27 this year. (For comparison, 23-year-old Delmon Young has 1,346 career MLB at-bats.) The key for Kubel at this point will be improving his plate discipline and raising his average, skills that he clearly possessed in the minors where he posted a nearly even K/BB ratio and batted .320. In both of the past two seasons he has had his overall numbers dragged down by slow starts; the hope is that this year, with a starting spot firmly locked down for the first time ever, he'll be able to hit the ground running.
PoI: 65 percent.

OF/DH: Delmon Young
2008 Stats: .290/.336/.405, 10 HR, 69 RBI, 80 R
It's tough to label Young's position since Gardy apparently doesn't currently view him as a member of the Opening Day lineup, but it stands to reason that the outfielder will get his work in one way or another this season. The Twins were hoping that Young would be able to take a major step forward last year in his second major-league season, but unfortunately he merely treaded water, posting an OPS that was 17 points higher than the mediocre 724 figure he put in up 2007. I have a hard time believing Young will ever reach the superstar potential some dreamed of a year or two ago, but this kid is too talented to put up sub par numbers for three straight seasons. He must improve this year. He must.
PoI: 80 percent.

And so, in one man's humble opinion, out of 10 players who figure to get regular playing time (counting Harris/Buscher as one), six are more likely than not to build on their 2008 performances. And I don't see players like Mauer, Span and Punto as being particularly likely to post improved numbers, I'd also be fairly surprised if any of those players experienced a major regression. That is... as long as they stay healthy.

And of course, health will be a huge factor. No team stays healthy all year, and some of the players listed above are almost certain to have disappointing seasons, if even through no fault of their own. Depth will be key, and you can be fairly confident that players like Matt Tolbert, Jason Pridie and Mike Redmond, along with various farmhands, will be called upon to step up this season.

A Crucial Victory

Kevin Slowey was the victim of another big inning yesterday, as the Tigers tagged him for five runs in the fourth inning to put the Twins in a 6-2 hole. Slowey's day was done after 3 2/3 innings, and Ron Gardenhire was forced to hand a four-run deficit against a powerful offense to his recently shaky bullpen. It certainly appeared that the Twins were on their way to a fourth straight loss, but instead, the offense resiliently battled back and the bullpen came through with some huge performances, and the Twins were able to score a 7-6 victory thanks to Justin Morneau's go-ahead solo homer in the top of the 11th.

This was a big, big win for the Twins. The team needed to regain some confidence after a 13-run loss in the series finale against the Red Sox, and the Tigers had been rapidly gaining ground in the AL Central. Here are some notes on the game, as well as some other Twins-related stuff:

* After coughing up 17 runs on 20 hits over six innings in the Boston series, the Twins bullpen rebounded in a major way yesterday as five relievers combined for 7 1/3 scoreless innings. This allowed the Twins offense to get back into the game after Slowey had put the team in a significant hole by letting in six runs over 3 2/3 innings of work.

I saw a lot of overreaction to the struggles of the Twins relief corps over the past few days. A bullpen lacking dominant power arms is bound to have bad stretches from time to time, and I think that's something that a lot of fans lost sight of with the performances provided by Pat Neshek, Dennys Reyes, Juan Rincon and others over the past several years. This isn't a bad bullpen, but it's surely not a great one, which isn't something we're used to around these parts.

* My favorite blog these days is the one maintained by Kansas City columnist Joe Posnanski. One running feature that Joe has on his blog is the "Banny Log," in which he chronicles the season of young right-hander Brian Bannister by breaking down his every start. Posnanski finds Bannister to be an interesting specimen in that he is a soft tosser with relatively unimpressive stuff who has to find creative ways to get major-league batters out. In a recent Banny Log installment after Bannister had gotten shelled by the Cardinals, Posnanski started off with the following:

The less said about this outing, the better … Brian Bannister just never did get the feel. Banny has this theory that for every 10 starts — he has two games where everything is working, two games where nothing at all is working, and the way for him to be successful pitcher is to make the most of those other six starts. Well, this was clearly one of the two bad games.

I found that interesting, and I think there are some distinct similarities between Bannister and Slowey. While Slowey has better stuff than Bannister does, neither is going to blow big-league hitters away and both must rely on locating exquisitely well and outwitting batters in order to have success. I have a lot of optimism about Slowey's future, but I do think he's the type of pitcher who will -- from time to time -- get off track and be susceptible to big innings like the ones he suffered yesterday and the start before that.

* I've made no secret of my affinity for Carlos Gomez, but even I'm going to start losing it if he stays in the leadoff spot for much longer. After going 0-for-4 in yesterday's game, Gomez has now gone hitless in his past 14 at-bats, and has reached base at a terrible .268 clip since the beginning of June. Meanwhile, Denard Span is on a mission to prove that his hot start to the season is no fluke. After reaching base in all five of his plate appearances yesterday by going 4-for-4 with a walk, Span now sports an absurd .590 on-base percentage in 10 games since rejoining the Twins roster at the end of June. He's shown very good plate discipline and unexpected proficiency against left-handers since being recalled, and has also looked much more comfortable in right field than he did during his first stint with the big-league club.

It's rare that a player completely overhauls his game at the age of 24 with five minor-league seasons under his belt, but it's certainly not unprecedented, and Span appears to be doing just that. He possesses little power, and throughout most of his entire professional career up to this point, he's been unable to excel in the other key areas of the game in order to make up for that. He'd shown mediocre on-base skills, posted poor base-stealing rates despite his speed, and during the past two seasons struck out about twice as often as he walked. Yet, over the past calendar year or so, he has made key adjustments and shown a much better approach at the plate.

Span has still only made 62 plate appearances with the Twins this season, so we're dealing with a small sample size, but combined with his strong second half in Rochester last year and his torrid start there this year, I'm loving what I'm seeing from this young man. There's no question that he should be batting first in this lineup right now.

* After going 5-for-5 with a homer and two doubles yesterday, Morneau is now batting .324/.387/.515 with 13 home runs and 68 RBI. This season is shaping up an awful lot like his MVP campaign in 2006...

* And on a final exciting note, Francisco Liriano tossed seven scoreless innings in Rochester last night, striking out eight while allowing just three hits and a walk. Over his past three starts, Liriano has pitched 20 innings without allowing a run, and has given up 10 hits and three walks while striking out 24. After working on some changes to his mechanics, the Twins have let Liriano go back to his old three-quarter arm slot, and as a result he's starting to look a whole lot more like his old dominating self. Of course, this raises concerns over him reinjuring that elbow, but for now let's just bask in his awesomeness and hope that the Twins are seriously considering subbing him in to the rotation in place of Livan Hernandez as soon as we get past the All-Star break.

Boy, I am feeling a lot better about this team than I was 24 hours ago...

Thursday Bloody Thursday

In the comments section yesterday, a reader implied that Ron Gardenhire doesn't even bother trying to win on Thursdays. I'm sure that's not true, but alas, after their 8-7 loss in 10 innings to complete a split with the Rangers yesterday afternoon, the Twins are 0-6 on Thursdays this season. This is an indication that the team seems to be packing it in on the final games of series. In part this may have something to do with the players being tired or worn out on these afternoon finales, but Gardenhire's puzzling getaway day lineups probably aren't helping matters.

In some respects, it's understandable that Gardenhire isn't able to put a maximized lineup on the field on Thursday afternoons. For instance, he generally likes to give Joe Mauer a break when the team plays a day game after a night game. That takes perhaps the best hitter out of the lineup, but it's perfectly a perfectly understandable and defensible rationale.

What's not defensible is yesterday's decision to have Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Craig Monroe all in the starting lineup while Jason Kubel sat on the bench. Cuddyer's awful performance thus far was rewarded with a promotion to the No. 3 spot in the lineup, while Young and Monroe batted fifth and sixth. Young's bat has heated up lately, so his presence in the middle of the lineup made some sense, but Cuddyer was hitting .217/.268/.313 on the season and Monroe had collected one hit in his past 18 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Kubel has been taking significantly better at-bats as of late, and that has been reflected in his numbers (1200 OPS, 4 BB/2 K in his past eight games). On top of all that, left-handed hitters had a 200-point advantage over right-handed hitters against the Rangers' starter, Vicente Padilla. For a manager who claims to base his lineup decisions on who matches up well and who's swinging the hot bat, Gardenhire's decision to keep leave Kubel out of the starting lineup yesterday seems counterintuitive. Without a doubt, Kubel should have been starting over one of those three players.

Cuddyer actually had a good game, going 2-for-4 with two singles and a pair of walks. Meanwhile, Young and Monroe combined to go 0-for-9 with four strikeouts. It was a particularly bad game for Young, who hit into a pair of rally-killing double plays on the way to stranding seven runners in an 0-for-5 effort. Livan Hernandez didn't pitch particularly well and there were some misplays in the field, but if you want to find an individual culprit in yesterday's loss, look no further than Young. He absolutely killed this offense. It's the type of performance that would normally get a young hitter benched for a game to straighten things out, but for whatever reason Young has earned the honor of being automatically written in as the left fielder each day, so we know that's not going to happen.

Lineup construction should only get more confusing for Gardenhire after yesterday's news that Adam Everett is headed back to the disabled list. This isn't necessarily bad news, since Everett has been essentially worthless so far this season. If he was playing the type of exceptional defense that gained him a reputation in Houston, he'd be a fairly valuable player on this team despite his awful hitting, because the rest of the infield has been very shaky defensively. Unfortunately, his shoulder problems have prevented him from being anything more than a mediocre defensive shortstop at best, so his value has been negated and he's basically been Juan Castro. I'd like to see Everett come back strong, but whatever is bothering his shoulder does not seem to be going away, so I'm at the point where I've pretty much given up on him being of any use to this team.

Replacing him on the roster will be Matt Macri, who I initially predicted to make the team out of spring training. This selection is interesting for a few reasons. For one thing, there's little chance that Macri will give the team any help defensively; he had committed a team-high eight errors over 29 games in Rochester. Ron Gardenhire is clearly fed up with this team's infield defense, evident in the fact that Brendan Harris has been moved away from second base due to his inability to consistently turn the double play from that position (Harris did turn three double plays from the shortstop position yesterday, so maybe Gardy is on to something). I wonder how Gardenhire will respond if Macri comes up and keeps committing the kind of mistakes that have haunted him in Rochester. As it stands, the inexperienced and clumsy Alexi Casilla would seem to be the best defensive infielder on the roster. It feels odd to say it, but this team really needs to get Nick Punto back.

The other reason Macri's promotion is interesting is because his numbers this year are significantly inferior to Brian Buscher, who has an 896 OPS with six homers and 20 RBI in 35 games for the Red Wings. There's probably not a whole lot of difference between the two defensively (although Macri is more of a natural second baseman, which may have played a role), so my guess is that Macri got the call because he's a right-handed bat who can spell Mike Lamb at third base against southpaws.

Infield defense has been extremely problematic for the Twins this year, and replacing Everett with Macri doesn't help them much in that respect. There could be many more ugly Thursdays to come.

No Cuddy, Mo Problems

Injured right fielder Michael Cuddyer is unlikely to come off the disabled list on Sunday, his first day of eligibility, because he's still unable to properly throw a baseball or grip a bat after dislocating and lacerating his right index finger while sliding into third base on April 4. I'm far from the world's biggest Cuddyer supporter, but I'm certainly not happy to hear that he won't be returning to the Twins any time real soon. With him out of the lineup, Joe Mauer has slid down to the No. 3 slot. I think Mauer was a good fit in the two-hole, and having him and Justin Morneau back-to-back in the lineup makes it much easier for opposing managers to throw lefty relievers at them late in games without much repercussion.

Moreover, Cuddyer's replacement in right field has been wholly uninspiring. Denard Span has started nearly every game in right since being called up to replace Cuddyer on the roster, and his defense out there has ranged between sub par and atrocious. Last night he committed two costly errors in the Twins' 7-3 loss to the Rays, and beyond that, he has consistently taken poor routes and turned routine plays into heart-palpitating adventures. This probably shouldn't be held against Span, as he himself has admitted that he hasn't played right field since high school, but either way, his defense has not been good and his offensive production (.222/.300/.222) has been downright horrendous, particularly for a corner outfield spot.

If Ron Gardenhire truly does feel the need to continue penciling Span into the lineup, it makes absolutely no sense to keep sending him out to right field while leaving Delmon Young, who actually has a good arm as well as experience playing the position, out in left. If you have a weak-armed center fielder with essentially no corner-outfield experience and a natural right fielder with a cannon for an arm on your roster, who do you put in right and who do you put in left? The logic should be simple.

This isn't all meant as some major slight toward Span. To be honest, in spite of fact that I've always been pretty low on the 2002 first-round draft pick as a prospect, I haven't been totally unimpressed with him since his call-up this year. While his offensive numbers are paltry, he has at least shown a good approach at the plate, and has been pretty solid on the base-paths. But really, his major-league upside is as a fourth outfielder; feeding him starts in right field doesn't really make a whole lot of sense.

If Span is going to stay in the lineup, he should certainly swap positions with Young. If not, there are a few other intriguing options who could step in until Cuddyer returns. Despite a slow start, Jason Pridie is now batting .280/.362/.460 in Rochester; he would likely be a much stronger offensive contributor than Span while also playing a more serviceable right field. Another option would be to call up someone like John Knott or Randy Ruiz and stick them in the DH slot while moving Jason Kubel out into the field.

I don't really know what the best option is. All I'm getting at here is that, even with one of the team's key contributors out of the lineup, there are better ways to maximize this roster offensively and defensively than sticking a mediocre minor-league center fielder out in right field. Hopefully last night's game will help Gardenhire realize this fact.

Spring Has Sprung

Well, not literally. It's still February, and still pretty cold outside (though not nearly as bad as it was before -- boy was yesterday's 35-degree high refreshing). Down in Ft. Myers, the temperatures have been in the 80s and warm-ups are heating up. La Velle E. Neal III, Joe Christensen and Phil Miller have all been blogging live from the ballpark, and each scribe has been delivering many interesting details. I've particularly enjoyed Miller's blog; he has been updating several times each day and his coverage has been extremely thorough. Thanks Phil, keep up the great work.

Christensen had some quotes from Ron Gardenhire in one of his blog posts yesterday indicating that the 2008 batting order might be starting to take shape.

“I would like to have him [Justin Morneau] in that 4-spot,” Gardy said. “I think that’s where he belongs.”

So from that, would it be safe to assume he wants Joe Mauer batting second?

“No, I wouldn’t assume that,” Gardy said. “I think that sounds really good, but don’t assume that. I like that. I think [Mauer’s] an on-base percentage guy, and I’d like to have a righthanded bat in between them. … So it makes sense, if we can find a leadoff guy, and if we can find a third hitter, all those things.”

Batting Mauer second and Morneau fourth makes a lot of sense, and the smart money would be on either Delmon Young or Michael Cuddyer hitting between them. Unless Young can learn how to take a walk, I think it would make more sense to hit Cuddyer ahead of Morneau because he'll probably get on base more often than Young this season. Here's my early prediction for the Opening Day lineup:

1. Gomez, CF
2. Mauer, C
3. Cuddyer, RF
4. Morneau, 1B
5. Young, LF
6. Kubel, DH
7. Harris, 2B
8. Lamb, 3B
9. Everett, SS

That group is short on speed outside of Gomez, but each player 2-6 is a legit 20-plus home run threat. If forced to choose between a lineup built around speed or power, I'll go with the latter. The speed approach didn't really work for the 2007 unit.

Speaking of speed, it sounds like Kevin Slowey is popping the mitt pretty hard here in early spring. We've all come to learn that you can't put too much stock into reports on players from spring practices (remember Buster Olney's raves about Justin Jones back in spring of '06?), but it's definitely good to hear that Twins' hitters are coming away from the batting box shaking their heads after facing Slowey. Despite his stellar minor-league numbers, scouts have always been hesitant to label Slowey a top prospect or a potential ace because he lacks devastating stuff. Any signs of change on that front are welcome.

Jim Souhan had a very well written column on the charms of Spring Training in yesterday's Star Tribune. I found one observation particularly amusing:

You could hear Twins legend Tony Oliva chiding choosy hitters from behind the cage, saying, "No take-a, take-a, take-a. If I could see it, I swung at it."

Here's hoping the Twins keep Oliva away from Delmon Young.

Let's Talk About Something Else

Fausto Carmona entered last night's start for the Indians with a 5.61 ERA in 85 career innings. Opposing hitters had compiled a .299/.371/.456 hitting line against him during that span, and in 40 appearances (including nine starts) Carmona had picked up just one win and had never lasted more than six innings in a game. Of course, none of this stopped the 23-year-old righthander from tossing 7 2/3 innings of two-run ball against a once-again inept Twins lineup as he picked up his second career victory and pushed Cleveland to a two-game sweep at the Metrodome. Carmona allowed just six hits and two walks while striking out two. After allowing an RBI single to Justin Morneau in the fourth inning, Carmona retired 13 of the final 15 batters he faced and never allowed the Twins to put together anything resembling a rally. Johan Santana was solid, allowing just six hits and a walk while striking out seven over seven innings of work, but he gave up four runs and on this night the offense could give him no help. All of this equated to a 5-3 defeat, the Twins' fourth loss in their past five contests.

It was another terrible display by the Twins offense against a hittable pitcher, but rather than vent my frustrations I'm going to discuss something else today.

April 25 is too early to be considering specific trades, but it's never too early to take a look at some teams that may be potential trade partners down the line and to point out some players who might be worth keeping an eye on. With the Twins' LF/DH situation somewhat in limbo, there is a team that caught my attention, and that team is the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs seem committed to giving rookie Felix Pie a shot in center field, shifting Alfonso Soriano to left and creating a logjam in right field, with Jacque Jones, Matt Murton and Cliff Floyd all vying for playing time. There's no way I would condone bringing back Jones, but Murton and Floyd are both intriguing and each could be a valuable addition for the Twins if the price was right.

Murton is a 25-year-old righthanded hitter who can play both corner outfield spots well. He has a very nice career hitting line of .301/.367/.453 in 622 major-league at-bats. Murton possesses relatively little power and doesn't run particularly well, but he is a solid hitter with a good eye at the plate. Not only would Murton provide the Twins with a legitimate major-league to play in left field or at DH when Rondell White is injured, it would also be beneficial to the team's future. If Jason Kubel continues to develop into the player many (including myself) think he can be, acquiring Murton would potentially make Michael Cuddyer expendable, as Kubel could slide to right field and Murton could take over in left. That's not to say I want Cuddyer gone, but that might be the inevitable result once his arbitration years are up if the Twins intend to keep Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Johan Santana and Joe Nathan. The thought of losing Cuddyer is pretty scary at this point, because the Twins are lacking corner outfielders in the upper levels of their minor-league system. In this respect, Murton would be a solid addition.

Floyd is another guy worth looking at, and he might be a more realistic option if only for the fact that the Cubs would probably be more willing to deal him. The Cubs signed Floyd to a reasonable $3 million one-year deal in the off-season, with incentives and an option for 2008. In 15 major-league seasons, the 34-year-old lefty has amassed a .278/.358/.487 line with 214 homers and 787 RBI. If the Twins wanted to add a veteran power presence in their lineup, they could do a lot worse than Floyd. With White seemingly injured at all times, Floyd could be inserted into the lineup at DH, allowing Ron Gardenhire to trot out the following batting order:

1. Castillo - 2B
2. Punto - 3B
3. Mauer - C
4. Cuddyer - RF
5. Morneau - 1B
6. Hunter - CF
7. Floyd - DH
8. Bartlett - SS
9. Kubel - LF

That lineup has some good lefty-righty balance and it has power potential spread throughout the order, rather than the five consecutive singles-hitters we currently see some nights. I certainly like the look of that lineup better than the meager one the Twins trotted out last night with Jason Tyner at DH.

Murton and Floyd are both guys that are worth keeping an eye on for the next couple months. In order to get one of them, I'd imagine the Twins would have to part with a reliever (Jesse Crain or Juan Rincon most likely) and a pitching prospect, but at this point that seems worthwhile. Whether it would actually ever happen is debatable, considering Terry Ryan's hesitation to part with pitching. Hopefully he'll bring himself to make a move if this offense continues to be as frustratingly inconsistent as it has been so far.