The Core Four

In 2009, the Twins scored 817 runs, ranking them fourth in the American League. They hit 172 home runs, which -- while below the league average -- marked their highest total in the past six years and an increase of 61 from the prior season.

They managed this relatively gaudy offensive production despite underwhelming performances from such regulars as Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, Joe Crede, Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez.

The lineup's overall success in '09 was keyed by four players that comprised the heart of the lineup: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Each of the four posted an OPS of .862 or higher, went deep at least 28 times and drove in at least 94 runs, transforming an otherwise sub par offense into one of the best in the league.

Last year, the Twins' lineup featured greater balance, but scored 45 fewer runs and hit 30 fewer homers. To pinpoint this drop-off in production we need look no further than those four players.

Mauer struggled with injuries and adjustments to his new home park; his home run total dropped from 28 to nine and his OPS dropped by 160 points. Morneau was tremendous over the first half of the season but didn't play a game after July 7, finishing with career lows in home runs (18) and RBI (56). Cuddyer never seemed to get his power swing going, tallying less than half as many home runs as the previous year (from 32 to 14) and posting the lowest full-season slugging percentage of his career (.417). Kubel saw his OPS drop from .907 to .750.

In my opinion, the lineup has gotten worse around these four players since last year. I see Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka as offensive downgrades from Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, and I have a hard time expecting the same kind of production from the likes of Jim Thome and Danny Valencia.

Even if those auxiliary players don't pan out as the team hopes, though, it doesn't mean the offense can't be more productive overall. If the four players at the heart of the order can move closer to their 2009 levels of production, they can change the entire complexion of the lineup, especially with Delmon Young now adding another legitimate power bat to the mix.

Whether or not these hitters can rebound will be largely dependent on health. It seems fair to say none of the four were completely healthy last year, and unfortunately three of them are already dealing with injury issues this spring that have prevented them from being able to take the field for a game thus far.

If the "Core Four" can put these pesky problems behind them and remain relatively healthy throughout the summer, they could easily be the difference between a mediocre lineup and an upper-echelon one.

Shifting Priorities

A few weeks ago, fans were in desperation for the addition of a starting pitcher to Minnesota's struggling rotation. However, with the two most enticing pieces off the board now that Cliff Lee is in Texas and Dan Haren is in Anaheim, it's starting to appear as though the Twins might be better served holding off on the starting pitcher market as the deadline approaches.

Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey both reminded us of what they're capable of over the weekend. Granted, it was against the lowly Orioles, but both hurlers snapped trends of poor road performance by dominating the Birds and picking up much-needed victories. Despite their poor overall numbers, Baker has a 3.77 xFIP and Slowey is at 4.56. Those figures would be perfectly acceptable for mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters, which is what both Baker and Slowey have become while Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano have clearly established themselves as the team's top starters. I see no reason why Baker and Slowey shouldn't be able to match -- or even exceed -- those xFIP numbers during the final two months of the season.

The only pitcher who very clearly needed to be replaced in the Twins' rotation was Nick Blackburn, and that's happened. Given his mediocre track record in the minors and his low strikeout rate, I have no illusions of Brian Duensing taking the world by storm and single-handedly turning around the fortunes of this rotation. However, it can't be ignored that Duensing has accumulated a 2.93 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 132 big-league innings -- including a 2.65 ERA in 10 starts -- and he looked outstanding while pitching five innings of one-run ball against the Orioles on Friday night.

Surely Duensing will hit his bumps and one can hardly expect that quality outings against the league's worst team will set both Baker and Slowey straight. But these three have all demonstrated in the past that they are very capable major-league pitchers and if they all pitch to their level of ability while Pavano and Liriano continue their fine work, the Twins can boast a perfectly competent rotation over the final months capable of carrying the club to October.

Relying on Baker and Slowey to get things ironed out may not strike people as an ideal situation considering how terribly inconsistent they've both been this season, but none of the available trade targets represent a surefire upgrade. Haren and Lee are gone, and I'm guessing that the Twins (perhaps wisely) are unwilling to do what it takes to acquire Roy Oswalt. While it's possible that someone like Ted Lilly or Brett Myers might be a superior option to Slowey or Duensing over the remainder of the season, to me the upgrade is not likely or substantial enough to merit the prospects and financial resources that would be required to make a deal.

Instead of focusing on starting pitching, Bill Smith and the Twins should shift their focus to other areas of growing concern. One is the bullpen. Duensing has been one of the team's best relievers all year long, so his removal from the 'pen creates a hole in the middle innings. The Twins might want to seek a mid-tier relief option (since front-line relievers like Scott Downs will likely prove too costly), although they could just as easily call up Kyle Waldrop since they have two lefties in the bullpen as is. There's also the matter of Jon Rauch, who owns a 7.11 ERA and 2.69 WHIP in seven July appearances, but if anyone is going to be replacing him in the closer spot I'd guess it would be Jesse Crain.

Bullpen issues aside, it's seeming more and more like the Twins might have to look at adding another bat within the next week, something that wouldn't have seemed like a possible consideration a few weeks ago. Justin Morneau remains out of the lineup indefinitely due to a concussion and now Orlando Hudson has joined him on the shelf due to a strained oblique. Given the ambiguous nature of both injuries, it's tough to gauge when either crucial contributor might return, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that both could be lost for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, Joe Mauer is clearly banged up, as he has caught only two of the team's past five games and it's no coincidence that a third catcher was called up to join the roster yesterday.

With a number of key hitters going at less than 100 percent and two others out of the lineup completely, one has to wonder how the offense will hold up. Despite his heralded game-calling ability, Drew Butera severely weakens the Twins lineup every time he starts, and Alexi Casilla will most likely prove to be a liability in the No. 2 spot. Fans groaned when they saw Sunday's makeshift lineup, but we're likely to see more of where that came from in the coming weeks if these nagging injuries persist.

I'm not saying the Twins should go out and get Adam Dunn, but if they deem the injuries to Morneau and/or Hudson to be long-term concerns, they'd be wise to kick the tires on a few available hitters.

Accountability

When the Twins took the final three games of their series against the White Sox at Target Field over the weekend, it marked the first time they'd won three consecutive games since the end of May. This team has played well enough to remain safely above .500, sure, but they haven't been remotely consistent. Good wins that would seemingly build momentum are almost inevitably followed by depressing lulls in performance. That has happened again this week, as the Twins have followed up their thrilling ninth-inning, walk-off, series-clinching victory against Bobby Jenks and the White Sox by dropping two straight at home against the last-place Indians.

Last night's game featured another disheartening performance from Kevin Slowey, who seemingly ran out of gas at around 75 pitches, failing to complete the sixth inning for a 12th time in 19 starts. Fans who were already calling for Nick Blackburn's removal from the rotation (which now seems to be in the books) are now setting their sights on Slowey, and not without good reason.

We all look for scapegoats when trying to determine the roots of this team's continued inability to get going. We blame the manager for not acting quickly enough to replace players who are hurting the team. We blame the general manager for not calling up reinforcements soon enough, and for not more hastily seeking to pull the trigger on a trade that would bolster the front end of the rotation. We blame the team's slow plodding outfielders, as if their sub par range is costing the team dozens of runs. We blame plain old bad luck. (I myself am probably a little too guilty of that one; one cannot deny that there's more to all this losing than most of the team's players concurrently being snakebit.)

In the end, there's only one rightful party upon which to burden this thoroughly uninspiring performance: the players themselves. Be it because of injury or some other deterrent, too many members of this team are not playing up to their level of ability.

Scott Baker is a better pitcher than he has shown this year. Ditto for Slowey. Ditto for Blackburn. There's talk of trading for starters like Jake Westbrook, Jeremy Guthrie and Kevin Millwood; these are not better players than Baker and Slowey, and the Twins would be better served hoping those two can figure things out -- while hoping Brian Duensing conjures some of his late-'09 magic in the fifth spot -- than pumping resources into a doubtful upgrade.

Joe Mauer is a great hitter and a reigning MVP, not an over-matched kid who tries to lay down a bunt with one out and the go-ahead run in scoring position (and a hitter who's hopeless against left-handers due up next with a southpaw on the hill). What on earth was that?

Jason Kubel proved last year that he can be one of the league's most punishing righty mashers, but last night -- as he has done far too often this year -- he failed to seize an advantageous opportunity against a pitcher who is prone to getting clobbered by left-handed hitters.

Denard Span seems to be perhaps the most mystifying of all. He lets seemingly catchable balls drop in the outfield. He runs himself into outs on the base paths. He goes through prolonged cold spells and disappears offensively for games at a time. He has hit .198 on the road.

Span was in past seasons a young player with uncommon discipline. His keen eye at the plate was seemingly matched by his acumen around the field. He was sharp. This year, he hasn't looked sharp, and that's a trait he shares with far too many players on the roster.

People can rev up the "Fire Gardy" bandwagon and berate Bill Smith in the event that he doesn't make a loud move at the deadline, but ultimately the responsibility for this team's woes falls upon the players themselves. They're just not playing very well, and if you don't play well you don't win games and you don't make the playoffs.

On paper, I fully believe this Twins roster is good enough to win the American League Central by a fairly wide margin.

It's just really unfortunate that so many players aren't bringing their A-game.

Hard Times for J.J. Hardy

J.J. Hardy's best game as a Minnesota Twin was, ironically, the one that has largely ruined his 2010 season.

On May 4, the Twins were facing the Tigers at Target Field in a key divisional match-up. The game was tied at three in the top of the ninth, and the Tigers had Alex Avila on second base representing the go-ahead run with two outs. Ramon Santiago tapped a grounder to the hole between short and third, and initially it appeared that the ball would easily roll into left field for an RBI single that would put the Tigers in front. Avila lowered his head and charged around third, determined to beat Delmon Young's throw to the plate.

Yet, the ball never got to Young. Hardy flashed his amazing range, sprinting and diving to his right to stop the ball. Avila realized too late that the grounder had been fielded in the infield, and by the time he slammed on the brakes in an effort to get back to third, Hardy had already delivered the ball to Nick Punto, who slapped a tag on Avila to end the inning.

In the bottom half of the ninth, Hardy delivered a one-out triple off the center field wall, setting himself up to score the winning run on a wild pitch in the subsequent at-bat. With his outstanding defense and considerable power -- the two strengths that led the Twins to trade Carlos Gomez for him during the offseason -- Hardy had single-handedly turned a loss to a win.

We'd learn a couple days later, however, that Hardy had hurt his wrist while sliding into third base on that game-breaking triple. And what initially seemed like a minor hurdle has transformed into a debilitating issue for Hardy, resulting in two separate disabled list stints and multiple cortisone shots while likely contributing to a punchless .186 average when he's been able to get into the lineup since that date.

When looking at Hardy's overall hitting line this year -- .226/.268/.340 with just three home runs and 14 RBI -- there's a temptation to declare him finished as an offensive threat. After all, Hardy posted similarly ugly numbers in Milwaukee last year, and clearly the Brewers had lost faith in him considering that they were willing to deal the one-time elite power-hitting shortstop for a relatively modest return. Yet, it's unfair to judge Hardy based on his first half this year. He's historically always been a slow starter, and while that May 4 performance is the kind of confidence-builder that can often get a struggling hitter on track, it instead resulted in an injury that effectively shelved Hardy for two full months.

Now, though, Hardy finally appears to be back at full strength. He's hit .286 since coming off the DL earlier this month, and while he still hasn't homered since April 23, it does seem like he's finally starting to hit the ball with some authority again. Hardy's strikeout rate is down this year, so it's not like he's looked completely lost at the plate. If his wrist is fully healthy, we can expect his .252 batting average on balls in play and 6.8 HR/FB ratio (both well below his career averages) to both rise in the second half, leading to much better offensive production.

Without a doubt, the Twins have been scoring fewer runs than expected in recent weeks. Yet, I don't expect the front office to make any moves at the deadline to improve the team's offense, because they've got all the talent they need in-house. They just need a number of players to step up in the second half, and Hardy is at the top of that list.

Twin Killings Are Killing the Twins

The Twins didn't manage to do much offensive damage today in a 5-1 loss to the Rockies at Target Field. That's partially because they were facing Ubaldo Jimenez, who has been the best pitcher in the majors this year. But one can also point to the Twins repeatedly wasting early rally opportunities by grounding into three inning-ending double plays over the first four frames, pushing their MLB-leading total to 78.

The Twins have scored significantly fewer runs than one would expect based on the number of runners they put on base. They rank third in the American League in team OBP, trailing only the Yankees and Red Sox, yet they rank seventh in runs scored -- barely above the AL average. They are wasting too many baserunners.

At one point, this could have been pinned on their ineptitude with the bases loaded, as they hit .160 in such situations over their first 34 games. Yet, the Twins have predictably reversed that unlucky trend by going 10-for-30 with the bases juiced in their past 32 contests. Now, a dizzying double play rate has become the chief source for the club's offensive headaches, and it's not showing any signs of going away. They tapped into nine twin killings during their three-game series with the Rockies this week.

The Twins' current pace would have them grounding into 191 double plays by season's end. That would shatter the single-season major-league record of 174, set by the 1990 Boston Red Sox. This is an epidemic. But, as frustrating as it is, the Twins' jaw-dropping DP tendency is hardly surprising.

As mentioned above, the Twins rank third in the AL with a .348 on-base percentage, largely because they rank third in the league in walks. Yet, they don't hit for much power (seventh in the AL in SLG) and they don't steal many bases (10th in SB). That means they're putting an awful lot of runners on first base. When you factor in a team ground ball rate of 46.2 percent that ranks second in the AL, it's not difficult to see why the Twins have been getting doubled off with such frequency.

While the underlying reasons for the Twins high GIDP total aren't difficult to see, the hitters still can't be let off the hook completely. They are grounding into double plays at a higher rate -- per opportunity -- than the league average. (Twins: 15 percent; league: 12 percent.) Given that they've had more opportunities to hit into DP's than any other team, that increased rate is especially damaging.

It's time for the hitters in this lineup to take it upon themselves to elevate the ball with a runner on first rather than succumbing to the pitcher's will and firing a hard grounder right at an infielder. Similarly, Ron Gardenhire needs to start putting runners in motion more often; we actually saw the Twins avert a possible fourth GIDP today when Jason Kubel took off from first on a full count to Michael Cuddyer and reached second safely despite the ball being grounded directly to the second baseman.

It's great that the Twins are getting on base at such a strong rate this year, truly it is. But there's nothing more frustrating than wasting baserunners and between their early struggles with the bases loaded and their continual GIDP issues, the Twins are wasting an exorbitant number of them this season.

Twins Missing Their Middle Infielders

The Twins have a long history of dominating interleague competition and they've generally looked very good when playing at Target Field this season. Unfortunately, they lost two of three at home against the Braves this weekend because neither of those trends could outweigh their recent silence with the bats.

After scoring 118 runs in April and 133 in May, the Twins are on pace to score just 99 in June. They briefly emerged from their recent offensive slump by beating up on the Royals throughout a three-game series last week, but outside of that series the Twins simply have not been putting many runs on the board over the past few weeks.

It's not difficult to find the culprit for the team's recent drop-off in run production. Their thin infield depth has been exposed by injuries to both Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy. Trevor Plouffe and Matt Tolbert, called up to help fill the big-league club's middle-infield void, have both struggled immensely on offense, and lamentably Ron Gardenhire's misguided lineup decisions have enabled those poor performances to cause increased negative impact at the top of the batting order. Brendan Harris, forced into duty by the various injuries around the infield, has stunningly continued to show no offensive pulse whatsoever. He has just five hits -- all singles -- in his last 53 at-bats.

Hudson is expected to return to the lineup on Tuesday, and the Twins need to hope he's healthy enough to pick up where he left off because they could sorely use a jolt at the top of the lineup. We'll still probably be looking at a regular left-side combination of Plouffe and Nick Punto, which will likely continue to be an offensive liability. Hudson will be most welcome, though, because he will keep Plouffe and Tolbert out of the second spot in the lineup.

Karma is a Brat

In life, it seems like your luck always ends up evening out. Long streaks of fortune luck will invariably be followed up by a cluster of bad breaks. You get a sweet new job, your girlfriend dumps you. You find a $20 bill on the ground, a passing car splashes muddy water all over your freshly dry-cleaned suit. The timing can change, but ultimately it seems like the outcomes that aren't under your direct control inevitably seem to balance out.

The same is true in baseball. Sometimes a mediocre pitcher will have a prolonged hot streak in which they're consistently getting opposing lineups to hit the ball right at their fielders (see: Hernandez, Livan). Sometimes hitters will slump for weeks because all of their line drives seem to be getting caught. Lucky and unlucky streaks can run teamwide as well. Just look at our Minnesota Twins.

In 2008, the Twins' lineup was exceedingly lucky. As a team, they registered a .748 OPS that ranked ninth in the AL, just below the league average. They hit only 111 home runs, fewest in the Junior Circuit. Their team on-base percentage of .340 was nothing worth writing home about. And yet, the team's hits always seemed to come at the right time and as a result the Twins ranked third in the league in runs scored while narrowly missing a postseason berth. A .305/.380/.446 hitting line with runners in scoring position will help with that. Given that their overall hitting line of .276/.340/.408 was substantially worse than their mark in scoring opportunities, some ventured to wonder whether the team was simply "clutch."

The answer was no. There is little evidence that individual players achieve significantly different results in clutch situations over a prolonged period of time, much less entire teams. That 2008 team had a fortuitous distribution of hits and the result is that they scored substantially more runs than one should have expected based on their overall offensive performance.

Flash forward two years, where the Twins finally seem to see those unlucky rain clouds rolling overhead to wash away all the good luck they experienced in that charmed '08 campaign. Now, the Twins are fielding a much more imposing overall lineup, and yet they cannot seem to get the big hits when they need them. They have the league's second-best on-base percentage at .355, but they're constantly wasting runners thanks to a .264 average and .749 OPS with runners in scoring position (compared to .273 and .779 overall). The more runners these Twins put on, the more inept they become at the plate. With runners on second and third, they're hitting .167 with a .662 OPS. With the bases loaded, they're hitting .169 with a .478 OPS.

So is this team, which includes many of the same players as that 2008 group, simply less clutch? No. It's not like batters are stepping up and completely abandoning their approach at the plate in key situations -- they're striking out and walking with about the same frequency as would be expected. It's what happens when the ball is put in play that is killing them; the 2010 Twins' overall batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .305, but with runners on second and third that drops to .190. With the bases loaded, it drops to .175.

Compare that to the 2008 squad which saw its overall .316 BABIP shoot up to .332 with runners in scoring position. Their BABIP with runners on second and third was .351; with the bases loaded, .324. In '08, batted balls would consistently find a place to land in big spots. This year, in key run-scoring opportunities, line drives are continually falling into outfielders' gloves and hard-hit grounders are turning into double plays rather than seeing-eye singles.

Me and Phil Mackey, along with a few others, had a minor Twitter debate a couple weeks ago because he refused to label the Twins' tendency to fail with the bases loaded a "trend," since his reasoned stance was that the bad breaks were guaranteed to turn around at some point. I don't know how that stops an existing pattern of outcomes from being a trend, but while Phil is right that the team's bad fortune is almost certain to turn around at some point, there's no denying what we've seen thus far and there's no guarantee that it will end any time soon. It's clearly not happening yet, as evidenced by the 28 runners that have been left on base during the team's current three-game losing streak. The lucky hits kept coming pretty much all year long for the 2008 Twins, so it's really not unthinkable that this group could remain snake-bit for weeks, months, or even the remainder of the season.

Despite what a lot of misdirected anger from fans and bloggers might have you believe, the team's struggles in scoring opportunities are not the fault of the manager nor the result of a lack of intestinal fortitude among his players. It's simply an increasingly long string of bad luck. Hopefully it will turn around soon, because for the time being, this talented team is awfully tough to watch.

The Hits Just Keep on (Not) Coming

With a talented but erratic pitcher on the mound for the Royals yesterday, the Twins lineup did just about everything that could be asked of them. Everything, that is, except for deliver even one big hit.

With Luke Hochevar getting the nod for Kansas City, the Twins consistently took quality at-bats, forcing the young right-hander to throw 104 pitches (just 53 of them strikes) while issuing five walks and littering the bases with runners. The problem was that the Twins just couldn't come up with the big hits to drive those runners in. That problem persisted when Hochevar gave way to the weak Kansas City bullpen, as the Twins continued to turn in lengthy plate appearances and draw walks but still could not get the big hit that might have pulled them back into the game after Carl Pavano's ugly start.

A lack of timely hitting has sadly been a theme for these Twins thus far rather than an isolated issue in yesterday's loss. Their .367 team on-base percentage ranks third in the American League, and yet the Twins have failed to take advantage of their copious opportunities by hitting just .248 with runners in scoring position, including an ugly 3-for-19 mark with the bases loaded. They've also hit into 14 double plays, ranking them second behind the White Sox. That the Twins have managed to score more runs than any AL club other than the Yankees while posting a 9-4 record in spite of these problems is encouraging, but at some point the marquee hitters are going to have to step up and start delivering.

This lineup is packed with talent and there's no way these guys will keep coming up short so frequently in scoring opportunities throughout the season. I'm very confident in that. With that being said, it's tough to remain patient when seeing them leave so many runners on the bases day in and day out, particularly at home against pitchers like Hochevar and the Kansas City relief corps. The Twins have got to start better punishing opposing pitchers for their mistakes. Yesterday, they screwed up royally in that department.

K.A.O.

When Brad Childress was first hired as head coach of the Vikings several years ago, he famously promised fans that he would implement a "kick-ass offense." Of course, in his early years at the helm, few would have described the Vikings' plodding offensive unit with that terminology, but by last year -- with the right pieces in place -- the Vikes had become a point-scoring juggernaut and were able to come within a game of the Super Bowl.

The Twins have similarly added some key pieces during their most recent offseason, and the early results in their 2010 campaign have been similarly -- well -- kick-ass. It might not be appropriate to compare J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson to Brett Favre and Percy Harvin, but the Twins had an immensely talented core in place already and by shoring up some holes in the lineup (and on the bench, with the addition of Jim Thome), they have seemingly taken their offensive game to the next level.

Last season, the Twins ranked fourth in the American League in runs scored and ninth in home runs. Those are respectable placements, but given that they boasted the league MVP and two other hitters who gained some measure of consideration or the award (Justin Morneau probably would have garnered votes as well if not for his injury), one might have expected the '09 Twins to have been a truly elite offensive club. What held them back was the number of plate appearances that went to substandard hitters like Alexi Casilla, Carlos Gomez, Nick Punto, Joe Crede and Matt Tolbert. Each one of those players accumulated at least 200 plate appearances last year, and not one managed an OPS much over .700. The addition of players like Hardy, Hudson and Thome prevents the Twins from being forced into heaping playing time on overmatched reserves and helps supplement a lineup core that has clearly established itself as one of the most formidable in baseball.

Punto remains a fixture in the Twins lineup, but if his struggles continue, Brendan Harris and Danny Valencia await as viable options to replace him at third. Meanwhile, the rest of this offense looks very strong. Hudson and Denard Span have both gotten off to slow starts, but given their histories there's little reason to expect that to continue. The middle-of-the-lineup hitters have been predictably excellent and Delmon Young is off to a very promising start. Already, we're seeing that this lineup is deep enough to sustain slumps from a few key players and teamwide struggles with runners in scoring position, as they've managed to average 4.62 runs per game despite the lack of production from the top of the order and a .239 team average with runners in scoring position. That's what power up and down the lineup and a core packed with elite hitters can do for you. Once Span and Hudson get it going and the Twins start better taking advantage of scoring opportunities in general -- look out.

Watching this offense provides a new and exciting sensation for Twins fans. This is a lineup that legitimately strikes fear into opposing pitchers and doesn't really let up or relent. It's probably not realistic to expect this group to score 30 a game, as the Vikings did last season, but it would hardly be surprising to see this kick-ass Twins offense put up a touchdown or two from time to time. And it would be somewhat surprising if they weren't among the league leaders in scoring throughout the summer. This lineup is legit.

So Far, So Good

With today marking the first off day in this young season, it seems an appropriate time to look back and review what's happened so far. Basically, the Twins have been on absolute fire. They've won six of their eight games against three quality teams and been competitive in both their losses. They've outscored all but two AL clubs and rank second in homers. Perhaps more surprisingly, they've allowed fewer runs than any other team in the league.

For those, like myself, who spent a lot of time raving about this lineup throughout the winter and spring, the team's fast offensive start should come as no surprise. The strong work from the pitching staff, though, was not necessarily a given. With a rotation filled with question marks and a bullpen that lost its best member during spring training, preventing runs certainly appeared to be the Twins' biggest hurdle, but thus far the team's arms have been up to the task. Starters have been delivering quality starts and the bullpen has been lights-out with a few exceptions.

The Twins have started their season on a hot streak, to be sure, and as such it would be wise not to jump to grandiose conclusions. Sure, right now they have the look of a 100-win team, but we haven't yet seen the bats hit their first power lull, nor have we seen our first late-inning bullpen implosion. These things are bound to happen, and I'm sure they will serve to dampen enthusiasm somewhat. However, what is clear is that this is a very good team, with a lineup that stacks up favorably against even the mighty Red Sox and a group of pitchers that appears more than capable of supporting that lineup. So far, so good.

Master Blasters

Last year, the Twins ranked fourth in the American League in runs scored with 817. That's impressive. They also hit 173 homers to rank ninth out of 14 AL clubs, which -- while hardly astounding -- represented an improvement from their usual standing among the bottom two or three teams in the long ball department.

This year, the Twins brought back every key offensive player from last year's roster while (perhaps dramatically) upgrading both middle infield spots and signing a Hall of Famer to serve as a part-time bench bat. This created a lot of enthusiasm amongst fans eager to see what this loaded lineup could do.

Just four games into the season, these Twins have given us a pretty good idea. Already they've blasted nine home runs (last year it took them until April 17 to reach that mark) and they've demonstrated an ability go get power from the bottom of the order, something rarely seen around these parts. Delmon Young and JJ Hardy, who typically will serve in the No. 7 and 8 spots in the order, each homered twice in Anaheim. Unsurprisingly, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Jim Thome have gotten in on the action as well, and it surely won't be long until Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel join the parade.

The score in last night's game went from 3-1 to 10-1 in an awful hurry. That's the beauty of the multi-run homer, which will be a more potent weapon for the Twins this season than perhaps ever before. Sort of a surreal feeling.

The Importance of Foresight

The Twins have enjoyed an impressive run of sustained success over the past nine years. Only once during that span (2007) have they posted a losing record. And if there's one lesson to be taken from the '07 team, it relates to the pitfalls of complacency.

In 2006, the Twins boasted a rather impressive offense. Joe Mauer won his first batting title, Justin Morneau captured the AL MVP award, Michael Cuddyer enjoyed a career year, Luis Castillo excelled at the top of the lineup in his first season as a Twin, and Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto delivered strong offensive contributions after taking over the left side of the infield midway through the season. All told, the Twins led the American League in batting average and surpassed the 800-run threshold that team officials seem to consider the bar for a successful offensive season.

Content in his lineup's quality production, Terry Ryan remained relatively inactive on the offensive side during the following offseason. This proved highly detrimental, as the Twins' offense suffered a massive slide the next year. The team's OPS+ dropped from 103 to 93, pushing them from above average to solidly below, and their average run output dropped from 4.94 to 4.43.

One could hardly have expected Ryan to predict that the production of Morneau would drop so significantly, or that both Mauer and Cuddyer would battle injuries for much of the year, or even that Punto and Bartlett would regress so dramatically after seemingly putting together breakout campaigns in '06. Yet, with a little foresight, Ryan could have better prepared the team for these types of circumstances. Entering the season with a useless Rondell White as a starter and with the offensively challenged Lew Ford and Jason Tyner as the team's top backup options in the outfield was pretty clearly a recipe disaster, leaving little margin for error amongst the offense's core. Ryan certainly had the right idea in signing Jeff Cirillo as a backup option for Punto at third base, but the aging Cirillo proved incapable of filling in at third on a regular basis and Ron Gardenhire seemed unwilling to pull the struggling Punto out of the lineup for prolonged periods of time anyway.

The 2009 season bears some similarity to that '06 campaign. Several members of the lineup's core -- Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Denard Span and Jason Kubel -- enjoyed absolutely phenomenal offensive campaigns, and the team's impressive late run at a playoff spot was once again boosted by unexpected late contributions from infielders who took over new spots and rose to the occasion. Smith must now learn from the past and avoid the complacency that led to the 2007 club's demise, because if just one or two of the lineup's core players battle significant regression or injury problems next year, the holes that surround them in the lineup could be magnified significantly.

Fortunately, Smith doesn't have to deal with deciphering the illusions present on that 2006 team. Despite his strong finish, Punto's overall numbers were terrible, and one would have to be out of their mind to think that Tolbert looks like a legitimate full-time major-league third baseman. There's also a clear hole in the outfield and no obvious candidate to start at shortstop unless Orlando Cabrera is re-signed (which in itself is an unsafe bet considering his age and declining production).

Given that the Twins ranked fourth in the league in offense this past season while averaging over five runs per game and ranked fourth-to-last in team ERA, one could logically conclude that improving the pitching staff should be Smith's chief focus during this offseason. I'm not sure that's the case. With guys like Kevin Slowey, Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser returning from injury next year, and with the defense hopefully taking some steps forward, I think the team's run prevention is bound to improve even without significant outside reinforcements (particularly if Carl Pavano is brought back). Meanwhile, I see lots of room for regression on the offensive side of the ball, because it's tough to expect all five of the aforementioned "core" offensive players to repeat what they did during the 2009 season -- especially considering that three of those players have somewhat troubling injury histories.

Adding solid depth and filling lineup holes with adequate supporting players could go a long way toward protecting the Twins against the type of drop-off that struck that 2007 team. If the 2009 unit enters the season with a starting infield that consists of Tolbert, Cabrera and Punto, this lineup could be in serious trouble should Mauer's back act up or Kubel's knee give out.

***

Oh, and congrats (I guess) to the Yankees, who won the World Series in six games. Who could have seen that coming? :-)

Good Medicine

In the wake of their three-game calamity at home against the Angels, the Twins were in need of a good long outing from a starting pitcher to erase memories of a roundly dreadful performance from their rotation over the weekend. Even more, they were just in need of a sound victory to wash the whole sour taste left by that ugly sweep out of their mouths.

They got both last night, courtesy of Scott Baker and a lineup that was able to crank out 10 runs on 16 hits. The refreshing laugher came at the expense of a deconstructed Indians club that has pawned off two of its three best players in the past week.

Hey, we'll take what we can get.

Six members of the Twins lineup notched multiple hits in last night's game, as nine of the team's 16 hits went for extra bases. Joe Mauer doubled three times, Orlando Cabrera continued to impress his new teammates with a pair of doubles himself and Carlos Gomez snapped an offensive cold spell by coming a triple short of the cycle. Meanwhile, Baker was terrific, allowing only three hits and a walk while striking out four over seven shutout frames. It was just the second time in his past nine outings that Baker was able to complete seven innings -- something the Twins will need him to do much more down the stretch if they wish to stay in contention for the division title.

An astonishing 40 of the Twins' final 56 games come against AL Central opponents, and many of those will be against the Indians and Royals, who are arguably the two worst teams in the American League. In order to have a shot at the postseason, the Twins will need to take care of business against these clubs like they did in Cleveland last night.

Game Notes

With their 5-1 victory over the Royals yesterday, the Twins sealed a fourth consecutive road series victory and moved two games above .500 for the first time all season. With the Tigers losing in Oakland by the same score, the Twins moved within three games of first place and will have a chance to vault into a first-place tie this weekend, when they face the Tigers at the Metrodome.

Glen Perkins picked up the victory in yesterday's game, though he was none too dominant. The left-hander allowed just one run over seven innings, but did surrender 10 hits while managing only one strikeout. It has been a very up-and-down year for Perkins; he was dominant over his first three starts, fairly wretched over his next five before going on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, and has pitched quite well since returning from the DL. This breaks down to some pretty interesting month-by-month splits:

April: 4 starts, 2.48 ERA, 0 HR allowed
May: 4 starts, 10.00 ERA, 6 HR allowed
June: 4 starts, 2.67 ERA, 1 HR allowed

Perkins' shoulder issues cropped up in May so it's pretty easy to excuse his performance during that month; during April and June his results have been fantastic. I don't think Perkins is as good as those April/June numbers suggest, and a fly ball pitcher who strikes out as few batters as he does is bound to hit rough patches even when healthy, but it's hard not to be encouraged but what we've seen from him. All in all, I think Perkins' current .500 record and 4.38 ERA are fairly indicative of the type of pitcher he is, but that's just dandy production from a dirt-cheap No. 5 starter.

Offensively, the Twins were hardly overwhelming but they got the job done. Joe Mauer broke out of his recent mini-slump by reaching base in all five of his plate appearances. Michael Cuddyer ripped his 12th homer and walked twice, and continues to look very much like the 2006 version of himself. The rest of the team was pretty quiet offensively, going just 4-for-31 with zero extra-base hits, which marks a continuation of a disturbing offensive trend for the Twins.

During the nine-game road trip they just completed, the Twins averaged only 4.1 runs per game. That the team still managed a very good 6-3 record during that span is certainly a testament to how well the pitching staff performed, but that type of run production isn't going to cut it going forward. Hopefully the return to the Metrodome this weekend will jolt some life into this offense.

Road Weary

The Twins have gone 5-0 in games that I've personally attended this year. Given that all those games have been at the Metrodome, this isn't totally surprising; the Twins have posted an excellent 20-11 record at home up to this point. 

This month, I'll be hitting the road to catch three Twins games: at Wrigley Field next weekend and then in St. Louis and Kansas City at the end of the month. I'm more than a little concerned that the team's winning streak in games where I'm present will be coming to an end soon.

With a 6-16 record away from home, the Twins have been the worst road team in all of baseball. At home, they've hit .278/.356/.447; on the road, .263/.335/.406. That's a disparity, but not an unreasonable one. Where the team has really struggled on the road is in the pitching department. Twins pitchers have allowed an OPS 82 points higher on the road than at home, and have posted a 4.53 ERA at the Metrodome compared to a 5.16 ERA outside of it. Last year, the split was even more dramatic (3.27 home ERA, 5.12 road).

The difference in the Twins' play at home versus on the road has been evident recently. The Twins shook off a tough losing streak by winning five of seven games during their last homestand; then, they hit the road and looked completely flat in their first two games in Tampa. They managed to salvage a win in the final game of that three game series against the Rays on Sunday (their first victory in 11 tries in the stadium of an AL East club), but certainly didn't make it look easy.

The team's struggles away from home are particularly troubling since the Twins will embark on a 10-game road trip after finishing up their current series with the Indians. Then, after playing six interleague games at the Dome, they'll hit the road for a nine-game stint. With 19 of their next 26 games set to be played on the road, the Twins will be in dire straights at the end of June if they can't play much better ball in opposing stadiums.

In a Dugout Splinters article for MN GameDay earlier this season, I wrote that maintaining their quality play at home would be key for the Twins if they hope to conquer the AL Central this season. I think I was off-the-mark. Strong play at home has essentially become a given for this ballclub; the more pressing need is that they find a way to win some games on the road. Because, if they can't, they simply don't stand a chance.

Big Ball

Those who follow the Twins are undoubtedly aware that this is a team that has long prided itself on playing "small ball." You'll often hear the manager and members of the front office talk about "manufacturing runs"; moving players around the bases with things like sacrifice bunts, hit-and-runs and situational hits.

Last year, the Twins managed to rank third in the American League in runs scored despite ranking dead last in homers with 111 and fifth-to-last in team slugging percentage. While members of the Twins brain-trust might try and convince you that this is an example of successful small ball in action, the fact is that the Twins' high run total was buoyed by a ridiculous .305 batting average with runners in scoring position that would be nearly impossible to replicate. It seemed clear to most observers that the Twins would be in for a serious regression in runs scored unless they could start hitting for more power.

Sure enough, the performance of Twins hitters with runners in scoring position has come back to Earth in a major way, dropping by over 20 points over the first two months of the 2009 season. Yet, the Twins have still managed to rank in the top half of the AL in runs per game, with 5.28 (a substantial increase over their 5.09 average last year). The reason is pretty clear: the long ball.

Entering play yesterday, only three teams in the American League had hit more home runs than the Twins. This bears repeating, because it is almost hard to believe for longtime followers of this team. We're through nearly two months of the season, and the Minnesota Twins rank fourth in the AL in home runs. They have hit a total of 55 home runs. Twenty-one of those have come with runners on base, and four have come with the bases loaded.

Members of the Twins front office can drone on all they want about the value of small ball and manufacturing runs, but there's no question that multi-run homers are the quickest way to put runs on the board in a hurry. Down by multiple runs late in a game, it used to be that the Twins would have to rely on stringing together a prolonged rally with several consecutive hits. Now that over half the lineup represents a credible home run threat, they're able to make up late deficits with a swing of the bat.

Tuesday night's game presents a great example of the value of the long ball. The Twins were going against a tough pitcher in Jon Lester who they weren't likely to get a ton of hits against. After falling behind 1-0 in the top of the fifth, the Twins managed to scrape a couple runs across in the bottom half to gain a slim lead. When Justin Morneau followed with a laser beam down the right field line that cleared the baggy for a three-run homer, the Twins suddenly had a comfortable four-run cushion, which they protected rather easily en route to a victory. The night before, Joe Mauer turned a seemingly insurmountable three-run deficit against Jonathan Papelbon to a one-run deficit with a homer to right field; under past circumstances, the Twins would have likely needed a lengthy rally against the elite reliever to get even the two runs across and make a game out of it.

Here in its last year as their home stadium, the Twins are turning the Metrodome back into the "Homerdome," a moniker which has seemed misplaced over the past several years. When it comes to scoring runs, that's no small thing.

***

On a final note, I received an email from someone named Paul Paquette last night with the following message: "Hey check out my song about Kirby Puckett and a turkey bucket." Naturally, this piqued my interest. After listening to it, I feel it's my duty to share with you the link to this wonderful work of musical genius. Here's the link. Have a good weekend.

Optimism

The Twins were lucky to finish the month of April with a .500 record after posting one of the worst run differentials in baseball thanks to numerous blowout losses. Even as of May 20, they'd been outscored by opponents 220-195, indicating that there was nothing particularly unlucky about their 18-23 record.

After outscoring the White Sox and Brewers 40-9 in their past four victories, the Twins are now actually under-performing their Pythagorean W/L record of 24-21. And while I certainly don't expect the Twins to continue averaging over 10 runs per game as they have over the past four, this offense is looking legitimate and giving plenty of reason for optimism.

Few lineups in baseball can boast a 1-5 as strong as the Twins. Denard Span has been a prototypical leadoff guy, hitting for a great average and a terrific OBP while chipping in some occasional power and stealing bases. Joe Mauer has been otherworldly. Justin Morneau is having an absolutely monstrous season. Michael Cuddyer looks locked in. Jason Kubel's breakout campaign is going somewhat unnoticed only because of what these other guys are doing.

Many of these players have inflated batting averages and will probably see their numbers come down in time. Morneau and Kubel are unlikely to maintain averages around .340, and Cuddyer is probably not a .290 hitter. Still, the power is real and these guys can hit. The Twins currently rank among the top half of AL teams in home runs, which is almost unheard of. The increase in power has allowed them to maintain a solid run-scoring rate despite a huge drop-off in production with runners in scoring position, which negates the arguments from those who claimed that this offense would drown once its lucky situational hitting came back to Earth (Keith Law, I'm looking in your direction). The fact of the matter is that the top half of this lineup features a bunch of great hitters that can hold up against any group in the league.

While there's certainly a drop-off in the bottom half of the lineup, the 6-9 hitters seem capable of at least holding their own. Joe Crede has been an OBP sinkhole, as expected, but he's shown enough pop to justify his spot in the lineup when his outstanding defense is taken into account. Carlos Gomez is still struggling but is taking better at-bats and has a .340 on-base percentage since the beginning of May. Brendan Harris is capable of providing solid offense for a middle-infield spot.

The lineup is in very good shape, so oddly the Twins find themselves in a position of worrying more about their pitching than their offense (how often have we said that over the past decade?). The starting pitching has been good over the past several days, and the two weakest links in the rotation thus far -- Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano -- are the guys who were viewed as the top two starters entering the season. Given their track records and talent levels, there's really not any reason to believe both of those pitchers won't drastically improve their performance going forward. Baker seemed to take the first step last night.

With a productive young offense and a rotation that seems likely to improve going forward, the Twins appear to be in awfully good shape going forward, even if their record still sits a game below .500 at present.

Patience Paving the Way

One of the many topics that John Bonnes and Seth Stohs broached on Sunday night's edition of the always-entertaining MN Gamenight podcast was the increased patience that the Twins lineup has shown this season. The discussion came in the wake of a weekend series against the Mariners in which Twins hitters drew 21 walks in three games. Hearing this talked about piqued my interest, as I too have noticed an increase in quality at-bats from Twins hitters in this young season. Let's dig into the topic...

Coming out of the weekend, the Twins rank seventh out of 14 American League teams with 109 walks -- about exactly average*. That might not seem like everything special, but given that the Twins perennially rank anywhere between below-average and terrible in walks taken, it's noteworthy. That ranking also understates the team's patience to some degree since Joe Mauer has only been playing for about a week.

* Posnanski-style side note: the team directly in front of the Twins in walks? The Royals, with 116. Who would've thought??

It is a well-known fact that the Twins organization has not generally been known for preaching a patient approach to its hitters; one of the most annoying contradictions in the Twins' philosophy has been the way they emphasize avoiding walks to their pitchers while seemingly dismissing the value of hitters taking walks. Yet, one gets the sense that we might be seeing some changes in this deep-seeded philosophy.

The Twins current lineup features a number of patient hitters. Mauer is of course one of the league's best in this regard; he's got a 4-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in this young season. Denard Span (14/13 K/BB) has also quickly developed a reputation as being an extremely disciplined hitter, while Justin Morneau (19/13) and Michael Cuddyer (22/15) are power guys who will draw walks at a pretty steady pace as well. Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert haven't hit much thus far, but both bring a professional approach to the plate, work the count, and keep their strikeout-to-walk ratios pretty close to even. Brian Buscher and Mike Redmond have both walked almost as much as they've struck out, and guys like Brendan Harris and Jason Kubel -- who don't walk a ton -- have shown a propensity to take some pitches and work deep into counts. Aside from Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, who remain the very definitions of free swingers (and who also both came over from other organizations in the recent past), this lineup generally features a good deal of plate discipline. Are we seeing a shift?

Back in the late 90s and early 2000s, the Twins brought up a group of talented, home-raised young players who mostly lacked patience at the plate. Players such as Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, Luis Rivas, A.J. Pierzynski and Cristian Guzman (not homegrown) enjoyed varying levels of offensive success in the majors, but none of them would be mistaken for a particularly patient hitter. The new generation of homegrown talent seems much different in this regard, and a quick glance at the organization's current farm system suggests that we're seeing a trend rather than a mirage.

Running down my Top Ten Twins Prospects list, we find a number of players whose offensive strengths include plate discipline. Ben Revere, who hit for a huge average but didn't walk much last year, has drawn 12 walks while striking out only seven times through his first 29 games, leading to a .377 on-base percentage. Danny Valencia, who struck out more than three times for every walk after moving up to New Britain for the second half of last season, has shown tremendously improved discipline with the Rock Cats this year, having drawn 14 walks while striking out 17 times in 21 games. Aaron Hicks is in extended spring training right now, but last year he broke onto the scene in rookie ball with an impressive 32-to-28 K/BB ratio and .409 OBP in 45 games. Chris Parmelee, a 2006 first-round pick who didn't break into my Top Ten but is perhaps the organization's best pure power-hitting prospect, has been a walk machine over the course of his career. Sure, you've still got the raw, undisciplined hackers like Wilson Ramos and Angel Morales dotting the organization's list of upper-echelon prospects, but in general one gets the sense that the Twins are seeking more disciplined hitters and putting more of an organizational emphasis on teaching patience. That's a very good sign.

One could argue that some members of the sabermetric community overrate the value of the walk, and I might be inclined to agree. But there's no denying that having hitters in your lineup who can work counts, fluster pitchers and put themselves on base even when their line drives aren't falling in has wide-ranging benefits. The Twins, as you'll see below, have been getting better in this department every year since 2005:

Twins Team Walks
2005: 485
2006: 490
2007: 512
2008: 529

And this year, they're currently on pace to walk 551 times (a conservative projection given that the effect of Mauer -- who walked 83 times last season -- is understated in the current sample). No Twins team has walked more than 550 times since 2000. This is progress, and I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest it's no coincidence, and not going away any time soon.

That'll Work, For Now

After sputtering offensively on Monday and failing in numerous scoring opportunities on Tuesday, the Twins' lineup needed to have a big game in their finale against the Rays last night. And while they weren't able to do so in the most convincing fashion, they made it happen in an 8-3 victory that sealed a second straight series win and returned them to the .500 mark.

Many of the Twins' runs last night came across on either wild pitches or defensive miscues by the Rays, but a run is a run and in the end the Twins managed to rack up eight on 12 hits. Is it a coincidence that the offensive explosion came on the same night where Alexi Casilla was finally moved out of the the No. 2 spot in the order? Probably, for the most part, but that doesn't mean that sliding Casilla down was the wrong idea.

Casilla went 0-for-4 from the No. 9 spot to lower his hitting line for the season to .174/.230/.217. I didn't have high hopes for Casilla this season (see my third prediction on this page), and drew some criticism for projecting him to post a meager .270/.320/.345 line earlier this spring, but it's now looking like even that might have been too optimistic. I'm sure he'll eventually raise his numbers from where they're at now, but there's little reason to believe at this point that Casilla is going to hit enough to be a viable regular.

On his blog Over the Baggy, Parker Hageman pointed out yesterday that Casilla has the lowest OPS of any qualifying American League hitter, and the third lowest of any player in baseball. Hageman also notes that Casilla's rate of chasing pitches out of the zone and hitting the ball on the ground are both tops among qualifying major-league second baseman, and a staggering 42.9 percent of Casilla's fly balls have failed to leave the infield (also an MLB-leading figure). He's been simply atrocious at the plate up to this point, and there is little reason to believe he's going to rebound in any meaningful way. With the exception of a two-and-a-half-month hot streak last year that is looking more and more like a fluke, Casilla has been anywhere between below-average and terrible offensively everywhere he's been over the past two seasons. He doesn't appear to have a sustainable strategy for success at the plate, and there's no earthly reason he should be hitting near the top of the lineup at this juncture.

Unfortunately, Ron Gardenhire doesn't seem to see things the same way. According to Joe Christensen...

Manager Ron Gardenhire said he’s leaning toward putting Mauer right back in the No. 3 spot, when he returns. The hope is that Alexi Casilla will rediscover his form from last year in the No. 2 spot.

Having an offensive sinkhole like Casilla breaking up the team's top four hitters is a bad strategy and a potential rally-killer, yet this is another example of Gardenhire being far too slow to make lineup changes that are clearly necessary. Last year, it took the manager until late July to move Carlos Gomez out of the leadoff spot in spite of the fact that the center fielder's on-base percentage was below .300 for most of the first half of the season; now Gardy appears content to keep writing Casilla into the lineup spot that receives the second-most opportunities to hit because evidently he thinks Joe Mauer will provide better protection than Justin Morneau. Or because he thinks that the player who came up and streaked through June and July last year is the real Alexi Casilla, contrary to all the evidence we've seen suggesting otherwise over the past two years. Either way, the thought process is flawed and the decision is wrong.

If Casilla is going to be in the lineup, he should be hitting toward the bottom. But the smarter choice at this point is to start feeding more and more starts to Brendan Harris, be it at second base or at shortstop with Nick Punto sliding over the second. Harris went 3-for-5 while replacing Casilla in the two-hole last night to raise his hitting line for the season to .350/.372/.475 -- yes, that slugging percentage is higher than Casilla's OPS.

Harris got off to a slow start last year, hitting .262/.315/.372 up until the All Star break, but that's excusable seeing as how he was adjusting to playing with a new club. In the second half, Harris posted a solid .272/.353/.434 line, and he proceeded to have an excellent spring training this year before getting his regular season off to a torrid start. Harris' bat is looking legitimate and with the horrendous production the Twins have been receiving from their other right-handed bats, he needs to be getting into the lineup on a more frequent basis. Harris represents a fairly significant defensive downgrade at any infield position, but that's a necessary sacrifice at this point and his harm in the field can be reduced by strategically using Casilla and others as late-game defensive replacements.

The Twins have been playing better ball as of late, but they need to get their lineup into a sustainable mode of production. Mauer's return will certainly help toward that end, but getting Casilla out of the No. 2 spot and feeding Harris more at-bats are other important steps. It seems as though the Twins would be in significantly better shape right now if they'd taken advantage of a tremendous bargain opportunity this offseason by signing Orlando Hudson, but hey, what do I know.

---

By the by, if you get a chance please make sure to tune into the MN GameNight podcast tonight at 10 p.m., which Seth Stohs will be hosting alongside Glen Perkins.

Expectations and Reality

Every spring, we (or in the case of this past spring, I) have written up a series of Position Analysis pieces, previewing the outlook for each position on the Twins' roster. This year, I made actual predictions as to what hitting line the starter at each offensive position would post, along with their anticipated home run and RBI totals. Today, I thought I'd take a look back and see how each player fared against those expectations.

CATCHER

Joe Mauer

Predicted Line: .315/.405/.500, 15 HR, 70 RBI

Actual Line: .328/.413/.451, 9 HR, 85 RBI

Comments: Obviously I was hoping for Mauer to take a bit more of a step forward in the power department this year, but he exceeded my expectations in all other areas.

FIRST BASE

Justin Morneau

Predicted Line: .285/.355/.540, 35 HR, 105 RBI

Actual Line: .300/.374/.499, 23 HR, 129 RBI

Comments: As with Mauer, Morneau came up short in terms of his power output, but made up for it by producing 15-20 points higher than expected in the AVG/OBP columns and driving in tons of runs.

SECOND BASE

Brendan Harris

Predicted Line: .275/.340/.450, 14 HR, 70 RBI

Actual Line: .265/.327/.394, 7 HR, 49 RBI

Comments: Obviously I was too optimistic in assuming that Harris would build on his success from last year. He took steps backward across the board.

THIRD BASE

Mike Lamb

Predicted Line: .280/.345/.430, 10 HR, 50 RBI

Actual Line: .233/.276/.322, 1 HR, 32 RBI

Comments: OK, seriously... who saw that coming?

SHORTSTOP

Adam Everett

Predicted Line: .240/.290/.345, 5 HR, 40 RBI

Actual Line: .213/.278/.323, 2 HR, 20 RBI

Comments: I predicted Everett would be bad; he was worse. He probably would have hit or surpassed my predicted HR/RBI totals had he played in more than 48 games.

LEFT FIELD
Delmon Young

Predicted Line: .295/.340/.480, 20 HR, 110 RBI

Actual Line: .290/.336/.405, 10 HR, 69 RBI

Comments: He was right there with his average and on-base percentage, but he took zero strides in his power-hitting game, which is gravely disappointing.

CENTER FIELD

Carlos Gomez

Predicted Line: .265/.315/.390, 10 HR, 55 RBI

Actual Line: .258/.296/.360, 7 HR, 59 RBI

Comments: Gomez came pretty close to matching my expectations, which certainly weren't all that high.

RIGHT FIELD

Michael Cuddyer

Predicted Line: .275/.365/.470, 20 HR, 90 RBI

Actual Line: .249/.330/.369, 3 HR, 36 RBI

Comments: As much as I'm not a big fan of Cuddyer, I was pretty optimistic about what he could accomplish this year nestled between Mauer and Morneau. Sadly, injuries destroyed his season.

DESIGNATED HITTER

Jason Kubel

Predicted Line: .310/.380/.500, 20 HR, 85 RBI

Actual Line: .272/.335/.471, 20 HR, 78 RBI

Comments: This was probably my boldest prediction. Obviously, Kubel came up short in the average department, but the other numbers were pretty close. I'll note that after a couple poor months, he hit .290/.364/.519 from June through September for an 883 OPS which is nearly identical to the 880 I predicted.