Friday, October 17, 2008

Expectations and Reality

Every spring, we (or in the case of this past spring, I) have written up a series of Position Analysis pieces, previewing the outlook for each position on the Twins' roster. This year, I made actual predictions as to what hitting line the starter at each offensive position would post, along with their anticipated home run and RBI totals. Today, I thought I'd take a look back and see how each player fared against those expectations.

CATCHER
Joe Mauer
Predicted Line: .315/.405/.500, 15 HR, 70 RBI
Actual Line: .328/.413/.451, 9 HR, 85 RBI
Comments: Obviously I was hoping for Mauer to take a bit more of a step forward in the power department this year, but he exceeded my expectations in all other areas.

FIRST BASE
Justin Morneau
Predicted Line: .285/.355/.540, 35 HR, 105 RBI
Actual Line: .300/.374/.499, 23 HR, 129 RBI
Comments: As with Mauer, Morneau came up short in terms of his power output, but made up for it by producing 15-20 points higher than expected in the AVG/OBP columns and driving in tons of runs.

SECOND BASE
Brendan Harris
Predicted Line: .275/.340/.450, 14 HR, 70 RBI
Actual Line: .265/.327/.394, 7 HR, 49 RBI
Comments: Obviously I was too optimistic in assuming that Harris would build on his success from last year. He took steps backward across the board.

THIRD BASE
Mike Lamb
Predicted Line: .280/.345/.430, 10 HR, 50 RBI
Actual Line: .233/.276/.322, 1 HR, 32 RBI
Comments: OK, seriously... who saw that coming?

SHORTSTOP
Adam Everett
Predicted Line: .240/.290/.345, 5 HR, 40 RBI
Actual Line: .213/.278/.323, 2 HR, 20 RBI
Comments: I predicted Everett would be bad; he was worse. He probably would have hit or surpassed my predicted HR/RBI totals had he played in more than 48 games.

LEFT FIELD
Delmon Young
Predicted Line: .295/.340/.480, 20 HR, 110 RBI
Actual Line: .290/.336/.405, 10 HR, 69 RBI
Comments: He was right there with his average and on-base percentage, but he took zero strides in his power-hitting game, which is gravely disappointing.

CENTER FIELD
Carlos Gomez
Predicted Line: .265/.315/.390, 10 HR, 55 RBI
Actual Line: .258/.296/.360, 7 HR, 59 RBI
Comments: Gomez came pretty close to matching my expectations, which certainly weren't all that high.

RIGHT FIELD
Michael Cuddyer
Predicted Line: .275/.365/.470, 20 HR, 90 RBI
Actual Line: .249/.330/.369, 3 HR, 36 RBI
Comments: As much as I'm not a big fan of Cuddyer, I was pretty optimistic about what he could accomplish this year nestled between Mauer and Morneau. Sadly, injuries destroyed his season.

DESIGNATED HITTER
Jason Kubel
Predicted Line: .310/.380/.500, 20 HR, 85 RBI
Actual Line: .272/.335/.471, 20 HR, 78 RBI
Comments: This was probably my boldest prediction. Obviously, Kubel came up short in the average department, but the other numbers were pretty close. I'll note that after a couple poor months, he hit .290/.364/.519 from June through September for an 883 OPS which is nearly identical to the 880 I predicted.

4 comments:

TwinsFix said...

Very nice predictions, Nick. You were almost spot-on on the majority of them.

I am also "gravely disappointed" with Young's lack of power. Most think that he will improve, and I agree. There is also the idea of trading him...which I don't think is a good idea at all. He just came off a poor year and has potential to be great.

Only a team like the Mariners would bite off that and throw back someone like Beltre.

Beau said...

You know what's awesome? For the most part, the players performed worse than you expected. And we still had one of the highest scoring Twins teams ever.

What does that say for our AVG w/ RISP? And Span/Buscher too.

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