Is Denard Span Trade Bait?

Earlier this month, when pondering whether the Twins would be wise to pursue trades as a means of improving the roster this winter, I concluded that they lacked movable assets on the big-league roster. One player that I didn't mention, however, was Denard Span. Certainly, that seems to be a name worth discussing, considering that by some accounts the Twins were very close to dealing away the center fielder just three months ago.

In late July, when trade deadline speculation was at a frenzied high point, La Velle wrote a story for the Star Tribune carrying the headline, "Span not fazed by trade rumors." Yet, I've gotten the sense from some corners that the team's well publicized discussions involving Span created something of a rift between outfielder and organization. And while the aforementioned article relayed the outfielder's stated desire to remain in Minnesota, Span's follow-up quote seemed to carry a sour note:

"This is where I have been my whole career," he said. "But, at the same time, I'm the type of person who has a chip on the shoulder. If they want to trade me and think they can be a better team without me, then do what you have to do.

"I just want to play baseball. I'll go somewhere else and play baseball."

The Twins apparently feel that they have a viable replacement for Span in Ben Revere. And the deadline rumors may or may not have caused some friction. So, could Bill Smith revisit the idea of a Span trade during the hot stove season?

On the surface, there appears to be little reason for the front office to seriously consider such a move. Span had the second half of his season wrecked by a concussion, which remains an ongoing concern, and he has finished with a sub-.700 OPS in each of the last two campaigns.

At the same time, he's still only 27 and he's got a very team-friendly contract. Span is due only $3 million next year and remains under team control at a reasonable cost through 2014. He's a disciplined hitter, a speedy base-runner and a prolific defensive outfielder. There's a reason many Twins fans (including myself) were rankled by the Span-for-Storen rumors this past summer. He's a valuable player. If there are teams out there feeling confident that he'll be able to overcome the concussion symptoms and migraines, it's not unthinkable that Span could fetch some decent offers.

In that scenario, it'd be something worth thinking about. The outfield is one area where the Twins look to be flush with talent in the coming years, and there are a lot of needs elsewhere. In addition, one could argue that the Twins should embrace any opportunity to unload one of their various health question marks.

But doing so would mean letting Span, a fan favorite and long-term anchor at a crucial position, go somewhere else and play baseball. Should they be willing?

Mystery Injuries

For the Twins, it's been a season of injuries that won't go away. And as much as we'd like to, we can't expect the offseason to serve as a cure-all.

Joe Mauer has been the most frustrating and perplexing example, even for medical professionals or students in online nursing programs and sports medicine classes. He underwent a knee operation that was considered minor last December, but hadn't recovered in time for spring training and -- after subsequently spending two months on the disabled list -- still hasn't shown that his legs are anywhere near full strength. He hit .356 in July but managed only four extra-base hits. In 18 August games he's hitting .268/.312/.352. This is just not the premier hitter we've come to know.

Scott Baker underwent elbow surgery during the offseason that, like Mauer's, was deemed minor. The right-hander reportedly dealt with "setbacks" in spring training, and now those issues have seemingly resurfaced, as he's on the disabled list for the second time since mid-July.

Then there are the brain injuries. Justin Morneau took a thump on the head last July and hasn't been the same since, while Denard Span suffered his own concussion 11 months later and has gone 2-for-35 between DL stints in the aftermath.

You can make a case that, when healthy, this foursome represents Minnesota's three best position players and their best pitcher. All face significant health uncertainty that could very well stretch beyond the 2011 season. And they're all under contract next year, for a combined $46.5 million.

The front office faces a lot of important decisions in the coming months as they try to get this derailed mess of a team back on track, but those decisions may not be particularly consequential unless these four players can return to satisfactory levels of health and production.

Everything the team does the rest of this season should be built around that focus. It seems likely that Baker and Span are already finished for the year, and one could certainly make the argument that Mauer ought to be shut down as well.

As for Morneau, there's not much to be done other than hoping things will start to click for him with continued reps. Right now, he's headed in the wrong direction, with a .121/.206/.226 hitting line since returning from his neck surgery.

Staying Put

The non-waiver trade deadline came and went yesterday without the Twins making a single move. The fan base had been on edge with Denard Span's name being thrown around by a lot of reporters, but when push came to shove nothing materialized between the Twins and Nationals.

It sounds like the main sticking point was Washington's unwillingness to include closer Drew Storen, and I'd guess they were at least a little tentative about Span's health. Either way, the Nats likely did the Twins a favor.

It probably says something about the level of faith people have in Bill Smith that the general reaction to a non-move at the deadline is relief rather than disappointment, but that's certainly where I'm at. The Span-for-Storen rumors reeked of another instance where Smith and the front office were undervaluing their own asset while vastly overvaluing the save statistic. (One report from Scott Miller of CBS Sports suggested that the Nats were pushing to include Tyler Clippard -- a reliever who is at least as good as Storen -- and the Twins balked because he's a "setup man.")

I said last week that I felt the Twins should sit tight at the deadline so I'm not upset by the lack of activity. I was pleasantly surprised to see Kevin Slowey stay put. Smith was undoubtedly dangling the right-hander, but didn't get an adequate offer and didn't cave in. For that, I give him credit.

It's time to set this rift aside and let Slowey help the Twins again. He was stellar in a Triple-A start in Rochester on Saturday night and should be starting in the majors. A spot could be created in the rotation by either shifting Brian Duensing to the bullpen (where I continue to believe he'd be a greater asset) or by bumping the struggling Nick Blackburn.

At the very least, Slowey would hopefully be able to build up some value for an offseason trade.

After dropping two of three in Oakland, the Twins enter August in fourth place and seven games back in a weak division. They still hold a faint chance at resuscitating their postseason hopes, and one could quibble with the lack of a move to add some bullpen help, but those kinds of deals can be pulled off in August -- in fact, that's where Smith has made done some of his best work.

Here We Go Again...

When Michael Cuddyer whipped out his first baseman's mitt after Justin Morneau took a seemingly minor blow to the head last July, he hardly could have guessed he'd be wearing it every day for the rest of the season.

Will it be a similar story this year for Ben Revere?

The 23-year-old prospect, on the roster for a second stint this year due to a rash of injuries, took center field on June 7 with Span complaining of concussion symptoms stemming from an innocuous-looking collision at home plate a few days earlier.

With the exception of one game, in which he played left while Jason Repko manned center, Revere has been Minnesota's center fielder ever since.

In a brief radio interview with KFAN's Paul Allen yesterday, Span -- who had just finished a light workout at Target Field -- sounded despondent. Asked to guess when he might return to the lineup, he stumbled for words before settling on the All-Star break, an answer he sounded none too confident in.

The center fielder can hardly be blamed for his demeanor given the stark similarities between his predicament and the one that faced his teammate a year ago.

Much like Span, Morneau was amidst an outstanding campaign before taking a knock to the head while running the bases hard. Neither injury was initially deemed serious -- Span even played and batted third against the Indians three days after running into Royals catcher Brayan Pena -- but Morneau ended up missing the rest of his season and Span has missed two weeks with no return in sight.

To listen to Span describing his symptoms, you'd almost think he was reading Morneau quotes from last year's newspapers. In his downtime, he experiences no issues, but when he steps up his activity and tries to get on the field and work out, on come the headaches and dizziness.

Players like Cuddyer and Revere deserve a lot of credit for stepping up and helping the team win in spite of these significant losses, but Morneau and Span are both extremely likable players and key cogs in the lineup. It's hard -- for the team, for the fans, and especially for those two competitive spirits.

I'm very hopeful that Span can shake these issues and hit his targeted return date, because he's fun to watch and some advanced statistics had him pegged as one of the league's most valuable players over the first two months of the season.

However, as I assess his situation, I can't help but think of Morneau, who is approaching the one-year anniversary of his concussion and to this point still has not been able to bounce back.

Three-Bagger: Morneau, Nathan, & Span

* The biggest star for the Twins in their abbreviated sweep over the Indians this past weekend was Justin Morneau, who returned from an extended battle with the flu and went 4-for-8 with four RBI. Though he seemed lost in his first couple weeks of action before falling ill (to be expected after an eight-month hiatus), Morneau looked more like his old self in the Cleveland series, coming through with big run-scoring hits in key situations and consistently hitting the ball with authority -- even on fouls and outs.

Jason Bay, another Canadian who had his 2010 season ended in July by a concussion, went deep for the Mets on Saturday, marking his first homer since suffering the brain injury. We're still waiting for Morneau to achieve that milestone, but it can't be far off with the way he was crushing the ball on Saturday and Sunday.

* After struggling in his first handful of appearances, Joe Nathan was relegated to to a low-leverage role in the bullpen. The ninth inning of Saturday's game, with the Twins leading by seven runs, fit the bill.

It wasn't exactly a save situation, but Nathan slammed the door on Cleveland with his most impressive outing this season. He retired the side in order while striking out two, including Orlando Cabrera on perhaps the best slider I've seen him throw all year.

This one outing hardly has me declaring Nathan fit to retake a late-inning role, but it's a step in the right direction. Building confidence with performances like this might be as important as anything to the right-hander's recovery.

* One of the most frustrating aspects of the Twins' slow offensive start has been their allergy to walks. After ranking fourth in the American League in free passes last year with largely the same group of hitters, they entered this past weekend ranked dead last.

Perhaps no one has been more emblematic of this lack of patience than Denard Span. The leadoff man is hitting the ball well, with a .318 average through 20 games, but he's drawn only five walks in his first 90 plate appearances – less than 6 percent.

Year	BB%
2008	12.1
2009	10.3
2010	8.5
2011	5.6

As you can see from the table above, Span's ability to take walks has steadily declined since he debuted in the majors four years ago.

As of today, his OBP sits at .356 thanks to a robust batting average. That’s an acceptable mark for a leadoff man, but it appears as though the days of Span getting on base at a .390 clip are over, and if he can’t keep sneaking grounders through the infield with regularity his OBP could dip to mediocre depths.

Position Analysis: Center Field

Likely Starter: Denard Span

Kathy Willens, AP

 Potential Backups: Jason Repko, Ben Revere

When Denard Span burst onto the scene in 2008 and went on to cement his impressive rookie performance with an equally strong 2009 campaign, he eventually came to be viewed as a godsend by Twins fans. Not because he was, in the grand scheme of things, an especially spectacular baseball player, but because he finally provided a legitimate on-base threat at the top of the lineup.

Finally, a Twins team that had been searching for an answer at the leadoff spot since trading Luis Castillo midway through the 2007 season and had opened the '08 campaign with out-making machine Carlos Gomez filling the all-important role had found a young player with a good eye who'd managed a .390 on-base percentage in his first 1,000 MLB plate appearances. As icing on the cake, Span sprinkled in a little power and a lot of speed, leading the league in triples in 2009.

So last year, when Span's OBP dropped to .331, just a couple ticks higher than the MLB-average leadoff man, it served as a major buzz kill. In his first year after signing a long-term deal with the club, the new cornerstone center fielder went from being a major offensive asset to a thoroughly mediocre hitter with substandard pop.

The drop-off in performance could theoretically be attributed to any number of things (Span himself placed partial blame on the playing surface at Target Field, though he did manage a .302 average at home), but the main issue was that he simply wasn't hitting the ball as hard.

Fewer ground balls found their way through the infield for hits, contributing to a 47-point drop in batting average. He drove fewer balls into the gaps and over the fence, helping a explain a 67-point drop in slugging percentage. Span's speed (26-for-30 on stolen bases) and plate discipline (60-to-74 strikeout-to-walk ratio) remained intact, but when he put the ball in play the results just weren't nearly as sterling as his first two big-league tours.

So the key for Span this season, offensively, will be raising his average. And, contrary to his personal misgivings about the natural grass at Target Field, it's other ballparks that represent his greatest opportunity for improvement. Span hit just .228 on the road last year; if his overall hitting line this season can more closely resemble his .302/.371/.390 mark from Target Field he should be just fine.

On the defensive end, it's perhaps unfortunate for Span that he happens to be following a pair of truly transcendent center fielders. Torii Hunter had a lengthy reign as one of the game's best gloves, gaining a reputation for pulling homers back over the Metrodome wall, and Carlos Gomez established himself as a truly spectacular outfielder during his stint.

Span's first season as full-timer in center was a mixed bag. His speed enabled him to cover ground and he was by no means a failure out there, but he whiffed on quite a few plays that Twins fans have grown accustomed to seeing made. He won't be confused with Hunter or Gomez any time soon.

Like it or lump it, the Twins will roll with Span in center as long as he's healthy in the short-term, but I do wonder if down the line they will give consideration to shifting him back into a corner spot (where his range truly stood out) and letting Ben Revere take over.

Should Span go down with an injury at some point this year, you can bet Revere will get his chance early.

Predicted Hitting 2011 Hitting Line for Span: .285/.370/.380, 6 HR, 55 RBI

Span's Grounders Must Get Moving

Denard Span burst onto the major-league scene in 2008, hitting .294/.387/.432 in 93 games for an .819 OPS that bested any previous seasonal mark in the minors by at least 70 points. It was a stunning emergence for the 24-year-old, who had been written off by many as a potential fourth outfielder at best.

Given that Span's success in '08 -- both in Triple-A and the major leagues -- seemed to come out of nowhere, some analysts wondered whether he would be able to carry it forward. In 2009, he did just that, assuming full-time duty and posting a similarly excellent .311/.392/.415 hitting line as the Twins' leadoff man.

That was all the team needed to be convinced that Span was legit. Last spring, they locked him up with a five-year, $16.5 million extension, buying out all of his arbitration years with an option for his first season of free agency.

So it was unfortunate when Span took a massive step backwards last season, hitting .264/.331/.348 in 153 games. Those numbers made him look much more like the fourth outfielder he profiled as in the minors than a quality starting center fielder and leadoff man.

With a relative unknown taking over the No. 2 spot in the batting order this year, it's imperative that Span reestablish himself as a strong top-of-the-lineup threat. How can he accomplish this?

In his excellent article for the Maple Street Press Twins Annual 2011 (which you can receive in a matter of days by ordering now), Adam Peterson breaks down the four components of offensive production: discipline, contact, power and base running. Peterson notes that last year Span led all Twins players in the discipline component, which quantifies expected runs when the ball is not put into play (specifically: strikeouts, walks and HBP). Span also ranked sixth among all MLB hitters.

In the contact component -- expected runs based on ground balls, line drives and bunts that are put into play -- Span ranked as the third-worst on the Twins, ahead of only Drew Butera and Jason Kubel. This was surprising because the component excludes power hitting, an area where Span has never been particularly strong. In the past, he'd made his living on succeeding with grounders, line drives and bunts, thanks largely to his speed.

Peterson's reasoning for this outcome struck a chord with me: "Most likely, this was the result of Span tending to hit the ball weakly when he hits ground balls."

Span himself has attributed his struggles on ground balls last year to the playing surface at Target Field, saying that it "felt at times like the infielders were catching up to those up the middle" and it "seemed like the grass would slow it up just a little."

Certainly it's true that grounders moved more slowly on the natural outdoor grass than the indoor carpet at the Metrodome, but to Peterson's point, I specifically recall thinking to myself on many occasions last summer that Span just wasn't making very good contact with the ball. Quite often he'd weakly tap it to the right side of the infield or back to the pitcher, and those simply aren't going to turn into hits much on any type of playing surface.

Span is a player who's going to put the ball on the turf quite a bit no matter what; his grounder rates over the past three years have remained constant (53.9% in '08, 53.1% in '09, 54.3% in '10). The key, especially now that he can no longer rely on the Dome's plastic floor, will be putting a jolt into those grounders so they can escape the infield with higher frequency, moving him closer to his .287 BABIP on ground balls from 2009 than his .223 mark from last year.

Raising his batting average will be the biggest key for Span in rejuvenating his offensive game this year. His excellent plate discipline and base-stealing ability make him an asset if he's racking up hits, and if you apply his same Isolated Discipline and Isolated Power figures from last year to his .311 average from 2009, he'd have hit .311/.378/.395, which is perfectly solid production from a leadoff man.

No wholesale changes are needed in Span's approach at the plate. Just a little more oomph.

Bill Smith's Greatest Weakness

Overall, Bill Smith's body of work as Twins general manager has been impressive. He took over at an extremely unenviable time, facing the task of letting two of the most popular and talented players in franchise history -- Torii Hunter and Johan Santana -- depart while keeping the team competitive. While that first winter was not a particularly strong one, Smith's Twins did surprisingly come within a game of the playoffs in 2008 and they won the division in each of the next two years.

The Twins front office under Smith has shown clear competency in a number of areas. These include targeting quality players in trades when their value is at a low point (JJ Hardy and Carl Pavano come to mind), acquiring valuable pieces through free agency (an area where Terry Ryan consistently struggled), drafting and being aggressive on the international market.

One area where Smith and Co. have not been particularly adept, however, is extending the contracts of their own players.

I'm not talking about the big fish. The heaping salaries of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan are hard to stomach now, obviously, but no one could have predicted they'd suffer the type of major injuries they did. One can question the wisdom of paying Joe Mauer $23 million annually for the better part of the next decade, but it was a fair contract and the Twins would have been ravaged if they hadn't locked the MVP up after '09.

What I take issue with is some of the extensions Smith has given lesser players on the roster, and specifically the timing of those extensions. While he's shown an ability to bring in external players at bargain prices because their value is down, he tends to negotiate contracts with his own players when their value is superficially high.

Denard Span and Nick Blackburn, both of whom signed long-term deals buying out all their arbitration years prior to this season, are good examples. Each of these players performed in '08 and '09 at a level that far exceeded their minor-league track record. Blackburn's numbers seemed particularly difficult to sustain, as it doesn't take a hardcore sabermetrician to understand that when you constantly pitch to contact and don't draw ground balls at a particularly dazzling rate, you're liable to get blown up.

Both those players took major steps backwards this season, which shouldn't have come as an enormous surprise based on their histories and tendencies. Yet, the team is now locked into paying them both over the next 3-4 years at a rate based on their performance in the first two seasons. If Span and Blackburn continue to decline, they'll keep being paid as strong producers due to contract extensions that were totally unnecessary given that both were under team control for several more years.

Nick Punto represents another example of badly timed extension. If the team wanted to keep him around (which you'd have to guess they always did), they could have handed him a low-money extension after his historically dismal 2007 season. Instead, they waited until he put together a solid effort in '08 -- his last year under contract -- and had to pay him $8.5 million over two years to keep him from exiting via free agency. As a result they've had to pay him $4 million in each of the past two years to put up a sub-.630 OPS while characteristically battling injuries.

And then there's the Michael Cuddyer contract. This stands out to me as Smith's most egregious and baffling move yet. It's not so much the contract itself -- a three-year deal worth $24 million -- I have a problem with, although one could certainly question handing him such a sizable deal after a very pedestrian 2007 campaign. It's the stipulation regarding the club option. It had to be exercised five days after the end of the 2009 World Series, meaning the Twins had to decide whether or not they would pay Cuddyer $10.5 million in 2011 before seeing what he did in 2010.

I can't recall ever seeing a contract structured like this before. I can see why Cuddyer's agent would push for it, knowing that Cuddyer would be moving past the age of 30 in 2009 and understanding that the team might be more likely to activate the lucrative option after that season than after his 2010 season where age could start taking a greater toll on the right fielder's performance. What I don't understand is why in the world Smith would agree to it.

Was it really a deal-breaker? Was Cuddyer going to turn down an extension that paid him an average of $8 million annually after a relatively mediocre season because the club option was to be exercised after the final guaranteed year of the deal, as with any normal contract? By structuring the deal like this, Smith opened himself to the possibility that Cuddyer would have a great '09 campaign, making the option look like a no-brainer and prompting the team to activate it, then follow up with a poor 2010 season that cast doubt on his future productivity. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened and now the Twins are forced to pay Cuddyer's hefty salary next year when under normal circumstances they'd have the option of letting him walk or negotiating a new deal.

I like most of what Smith has done, but the burdensome long-term contracts of players like Span, Blackburn, Punto and Cuddyer stand as glaring examples of a pervasive weakness. This winter, he'll once again have the opportunity to extend the contracts of several players. I mentioned Francisco Liriano as a top priority on Wednesday, and players like JJ Hardy, Alexi Casilla and Kevin Slowey are also candidates for extensions.

I can only hope that the front office shows better judgment in handing out such extensions this winter, because unlike the Yankees, this team simply isn't equipped financially to deal with a multitude of poorly concieved contracts.

Credit Where It's Due

It's easy to be impressed by the results of the Twins' four-game series in Tampa Bay this week. They went on the road to face arguably the best team in baseball and came away with a split. They rebounded from tough losses in the first two games of the series to gain big victories in the final two, building momentum as they travel to Cleveland and Chicago for the final two legs of their current road trip.

It's less easy to be impressed by the way they achieved those results. On Wednesday night, the Twins let a one-run lead slip away in the ninth inning, wasting a brilliant start from Scott Baker and forcing a 13-inning marathon before finally managing to pull off the victory. Today, Kevin Slowey and the bullpen crumbled late in the game as the Rays erased a 6-0 deficit before the Twins, again, were able to scratch out a late victory.

It was tough to watch the Twins allow a pair of games they'd been in complete control of slip away late. But these are the types of games that are extremely difficult to win on the road, especially against a fantastic team like the Rays, and the Twins do deserve a lot of credit for managing to finish the job in both the final two contests in this series.

They probably won't experience the good fortune of having a routine pop-up hit off a cat walk and land in the middle of the infield to score the winning run if they face the Rays again in the playoffs, but the Twins did play neck and neck throughout this series with a team that is tied for the MLB lead in victories. The Twins received gritty pitching performances in the first two games, losing on both occasions only because their offense was stymied by a very good starter, and more importantly they received dominant performances on the road from Slowey and Baker in the final two games. Those two have struggled immensely when pitching outside of Target Field this season, so for both to step up against a great team in a statement series like this speaks volumes about how far they have come and helps legitimize their recent success against weaker lineups.

In the spirit of assigning credit (and blame) where it is due, here are some other notes on the series in Tampa:

* There was plenty of head-shaking after newly acquired Matt Capps coughed up his first big save situation for his new team on Wednesday, as he came in with a 1-0 ninth-inning lead and allowed the tying run to cross the plate, but anyone who watched the game can hardly hold Capps accountable for the blown save.

Evan Longoria led off the ninth inning by hitting a fly ball to left field. It was a ball that most left fielders around the league would have caught in the air, and at worst it should have been smothered for a single, but Delmon Young awkwardly slid into it and kicked it back toward the infield, allowing Longoria to move into scoring position as the tying run with no outs. He'd eventually score.

The muffed play by Young was just one of many miscues in a game that was easily the ugliest of the season from a defensive standpoint for the Twins outfield, as he and Denard Span failed to track down numerous catchable balls. Miraculously, the Twins still only allowed one run in 13 innings -- all the more reason to praise Baker and the bullpen for their outsanding work in the game -- but Wednesday night's contest spotlighted something that has been a subtle issue for this club all year long: poor outfield defense is costing the Twins' pitchers.

With his minimal range and terrible instincts in the outfield, Young seems destined to become a designated hitter within the next few years. He probably should be one already. Keep that in mind when this premature MVP talk starts bubbling up.

* I have to admit, I have taken quite a liking to Jason Repko. His stellar play in the outfield has been a breath of fresh air in light of the issues mentioned above, and it doesn't hurt that his bat has been red-hot when he's gotten into the lineup, racking up a .319/.385/.617 hitting line with three homers and five doubles in 55 plate appearances.

I've enjoyed Repko's play so much that on Wednesday night I jokingly started using a #Repko4MVP hashtag on Twitter, though the gag seemed a little less silly yesterday when Repko was a crucial contributor in the Twins' victory.

Obviously he won't continue to hit like this, but a solid .274/.336/.433 hitting line in the minors (including .289/.357/.461 in Triple-A) suggests that there's no reason he can't keep his bat afloat, and if he's able to do that while maintaining his rangy defense in the outfield, he figures to be a useful piece for the Twins down the stretch.

Just maybe not an MVP. Yet.

* Speaking of unsustainably hot recent performances, I'd be remiss not to mention the play of Drew Butera, who has now started five consecutive games at catcher with Joe Mauer's shoulder aching. In those five games, Butera has gone 4-for-15 with a homer and a double while performing well defensively.

The "hot streak" has raised Butera's overall hitting line .205/.237/.341, which borders on palatable for a defensive specialist in the majors. However, before anyone starts getting keen on the idea of keeping Butera in the lineup more regularly even after Mauer's shoulder has healed, keep in mind that the kid has a long (LONG) history of not hitting in the minors.

Soon enough, he'll go back to being a massive liability with the bat, and -- as the first two games of this series against the Rays helped illustrate -- that's something the Twins can ill afford against contending clubs with good pitching staffs.

* J.J. Hardy has been on a tear since the All-Star break, and after going 3-for-4 in yesterday's contest he's hitting .270/.310/.398 on the season. The average MLB shortstop has hit .264/.322/.371 this year, so Hardy's production is firmly above average for his position. When accounting for his spectacular defense, Hardy has been a very good contributor for the Twins this season in spite of his wrist issues; meanwhile, while his defense in the outfield is missed, Carlos Gomez has essentially made zero strides offensively in Milwaukee. Looking like a nice trade for Bill Smith.

* Has there been a more enigmatic player than Alexi Casilla over the past few years? An apparent breakout season in 2008, when he hit .281/.333/.374 as a 23-year-old while helping the Twins mount a late charge for the AL Central crown, was followed up by an absolutely abysmal season in '09. Casilla has spent much of this season on the shelf, but he's returned to fill in at second with Orlando Hudson on the shelf and has performed admirably, using a combination of plate discipline in speed produce solid offensive numbers much like he did in '08.

His defense has also looked spectacular at times, most notably on the play that ended today's game, when Casilla ran about 20 feet to his left to track down a grounder and threw to first while twirling in mid-air to retire the speedy Carl Crawford.

During his career in Minnesota, I have seen Casilla track down some seemingly unreachable ground balls, yet UZR pegs him as a very poor second baseman, with a -9.7 rating in close to 2,000 MLB innings at the position. It strikes me that, like with his offense, Casilla's inconsistency on defense is mostly mental. The kid clearly has enough talent to be playing in the big leagues, but seemingly has a tough time staying focused. Whatever he's doing right now, hopefully he is able to keep it up until Hudson returns and beyond.

Position Analysis: Center Field

Likely Starter: Denard Span
2009 Stats: .311/.392/.415, 8 HR, 68 RBI

Span has quickly become one of the team's most indispensable players.

Potential Backups: Jacque Jones, Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert

Following the 2007 season, the Twins were left needing both a center fielder and a player who could competently fill the leadoff spot, as the departures of veterans Torii Hunter and Luis Castillo had left vacancies in these key areas. When newly appointed general manager Bill Smith acquired Carlos Gomez in the Johan Santana trade during the ensuing offseason, he hoped he'd found a player who could ultimately thrive in both those roles. Two years later, Gomez is gone and a different -- and rather unexpected -- player is flourishing as the Twins' leadoff hitter and center fielder.

Back at the time when the Twins were scouring for Hunter's replacement, few would have guessed that Denard Span would ultimately be the answer. The former first-round pick was coming off his second straight minor-league season with a sub-.700 OPS, and seemingly lacked the on-base skills to project as a table-setter at the top of the lineup, which was how the Twins had envisioned him when they drafted him.

Yet, not visible in Span's overall Triple-A numbers from 2007 is that he came on strong late in the year and began to show increased patience. Span carried that success forward into spring training the next year, putting together a strong showing but still losing out on a roster spot to Gomez. Span returned to Triple-A and scorched the ball for a couple months, batting .340 in 40 games, before joining the Twins and putting together a season that merited serious Rookie of the Year consideration. Given that Span's .387 on-base percentage and .432 slugging percentage in his big-league debut seemingly came out of nowhere (he'd posted a .323 OBP and .355 SLG in Triple-A the previous year), many were skeptical of his ability to sustain that level of production. Span essentially erased any doubt last year by putting forth another tremendous effort and cementing himself as the club's long-term leadoff hitter.

As a result, Span was rewarded with a five-year contract this spring. While the deal only covers years that Span was under team control anyway (with an option to buy out his first year of free agency), it is a good faith showing by the organization. Combined with the Gomez trade, the contract seems to emphatically state that Span is the Twins' center fielder and leadoff man for the foreseeable future. And that gives the team's fans plenty of be happy about.

Span has essentially been a prototypical leadoff hitter over the past two years. He takes quality at-bats, gets on base with great regularity and has excellent speed. He can bunt. He's not vulnerable to left-handed pitchers (in fact, his numbers against southpaws have been significantly stronger). His ability to fill this role exceptionally is not in doubt. What is in some doubt is how he will fare as a full-time center fielder.

Span spent much of the past two seasons playing left field, where his defense was exquisite, but his work in center has not been quite as stellar. From an observational standpoint, Span noticeably missed balls last year that Gomez would have reached, and from a statistical standpoint Span rates drastically worse in center (-13.8 UZR) than he does in (16.7) left. Now, his number of innings in center field don't provide a large enough sample to draw real statistical conclusions, and indeed I don't believe that his ugly UZR in 700 career innings there really does him justice. Span has enough range to track down most of the balls he should and is equipped with an adequate arm, so I don't see him being a liability at the position. In fact, given his athleticism, he could easily become an asset there as he gains more regular big-league experience and grows accustomed to his new home park.

From the past several paragraphs, you can probably tell that I'm more than comfortable with Span as the team's starting center fielder. What I'm not comfortable with is the backup plan should Span go down with injury. That's because, right now, it doesn't appear that there really is one. The top candidate in camp right now to back up center field is Jacque Jones, but given that he was out of the majors last year it's a bit of a stretch to imagine that he'll be on the Opening Day roster. Nick Punto can play the position in a pinch and the Twins have given Alexi Casilla some reps in center field this spring, but neither is a particularly attractive option. If Span suffers a serious injury and needs to head to the disabled list, the Twins can call up someone to fill in (and Ben Revere is starting to look like a more and more legitimate candidate to do so this spring), but should Span get dizzy again and need a few days off, there doesn't appear to be anyone who can adequately handle the position on a short-term basis. This will certainly be something to follow throughout the season.

With a dearth of alternative options, Span's absence would leave an immense void in center field and in the leadoff spot, so his health and productivity will be of vast importance to the Twins' chances this year. I've doubted him in the past, but after watching him consistently thrive as a big-leaguer over the past two years, I'm done with that.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Span: .290/.375/.410, 5 HR, 50 RBI

Span's Spins Spell Trouble

With two on and one out in the second inning on Tuesday night, Denard Span stepped up to the plate for his second at-bat of the game. The outfielder fouled off the first two pitches he saw from Brett Anderson, then took a ball. On a 1-2 count, he swung wildly at a seemingly hittable pitch on the outside part of the plate, missing it by several inches. It was one of the most awkward swings we've seen from a Twins batter this year and certainly an uncharacteristic one for Span, who has great hand-eye coordination and rarely swings and misses. It was almost like Span had swung at the pitch with his eyes closed.

As it turns out, that wasn't far from the truth. Span later told reporters that he was suffering from dizziness during the game and "just didn't even see the ball" during the aforementioned at-bat. Shortly after the ugly strikeout, Span was removed from the game, and yesterday he traveled back to Minneapolis to see a specialist about this recurring dizziness issue, which caused him to miss a pair of games back in late May as well.

This is peculiar ailment and Span seems as mystified about it as any of us. He notes that the dizziness may be attributable to his offseason Lasik surgery, which was performed on one eye and not the other (a fact I was unaware of) but says he's never experienced problems like this while playing baseball in the past. Said Span: "It's kind of scary."

There's plenty of reason for Twins fans to be scared, too, if this issue ends up keeping Span out of the lineup for an extended period of time. The huge success experienced by Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer and the strong slugging performances by Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede this year have somewhat reduced the attention paid to Span's successful sophomore season. Many were skeptical as to whether Span would be able to back up his outstanding rookie campaign, which seemingly came out of nowhere, but he has continued to be an anchor at the top of the Twins lineup. With his abilities to consistently take lengthy at-bats, draw walks at a solid rate, steal bases and hit well against all types of pitchers, Span has essentially been a prototypical leadoff man, something this franchise has been seeking for some time.

If Span is out of the lineup, the Twins lack inspiring options to fill that top spot. Carlos Gomez has been Ron Gardenhire's default choice in the past, but placing a 587 OPS in a position to receive more at-bats than any other player on the team is terribly misguided. Other players who would seemingly fall into Gardenhire's leadoff mold, such as Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert, are also offensive liabilities who belong nowhere near the top of the order. Mauer's on-base skills make him a logical choice to bat leadoff, but that's simply not a move Gardenhire would make.

Hopefully Span and his doctor can reach a conclusion as to what this lingering issue is and get it taken care of. He's been so solid and consistent in the leadoff spot that some fans may have come to take his contributions this year for granted, but be assured: you'll notice his absence in a hurry.

***

This afternoon I'm heading to Chicago, where I'll be catching baseball at Wrigley Field this weekend. I'd like to try and file a report of some kind this weekend, but you may not be hearing back from me until Monday or Tuesday. Enjoy the weekend!

Position Analysis: Left Field

Likely Starter: Denard Span
2008 Stats: .294/.387/.432, 6 HR, 47 RBI

Span is a prime candidate to regress this year. Will he?

Potential Backups: Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Jason Pridie

In January of 2007, I wrote a post titled "Will Span Pan Out?" that assessed the future of the Twins' once-bright center field prospect. At the time, Span was coming off a season in which he'd posted a mediocre .285/.340/.349 hitting line as a 22-year-old in Double-A and held a similar .288/.357/.346 career line through four minor-league seasons. At the time, I felt that Span looked like future light-hitting fourth outfielder with a good glove, and I concluded the article by saying that 2007 would be "a crucial season for Span and he'll have to show some improved discipline at the plate and a readiness to take his game to the next level."

That showed no signs of happening early on. Over the first four months of his first season in Rochester, Span posted on-base percentages of .261, .280, .311 and .312, striking out 80 times during that period while drawing just 24 walks. Then, in August (the final month he got extensive at-bats that year), Span displayed a dramatic shift in his plate approach, suddenly showing far more patience and drawing 16 walks while posting a .420 on-base percentage. I didn't make much of this seemingly odd occurrence, viewing it as a sample size fluke. The following spring Twins Geek made note of Span's late walk outburst in Rochester and observed that, in combination with the patience the outfielder had been showing in spring training, there might be something real there. I remained skeptical. After watching Span put together a tremendous 2008 season that would have certainly been deserving of serious Rookie of the Year consideration if not for the existence of Evan Longoria, I'm ready to admit that the Geek was right, Span was right, and I was wrong.

Now, that's not to say Span is a lock to go forth as the outstanding hitter he proved to be during the entirety of last year (both in Triple-A and the majors), but after watching him play extensively I've grown cautiously optimistic about his future. Span put up better numbers than any of his Twins outfield contemporaries last season, and with his patient approach at the plate and his ability to square up on the ball for solid contact, he seems like perhaps the safest bet of the outfield group to provide above-average numbers in 2008.

One area where Span will seemingly have a hard time avoiding regression is in the power-hitting department -- particularly against left-handed pitching. Last year, the left-handed hitter posted a .283/.402/.472 line against southpaws, which dwarfed his performance against righties. Now, Span is interesting in that he's always been a more disciplined hitter when facing left-handers. From 2005 to 2007, he posted a 76-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio against minor-league lefties (1.65 strikeouts for every walk) as compared to a 162-to-78 K/BB against minor-league righties (2.08 strikeouts for every walk). So, one can reasonably state that Span's ability to reach base against lefties at a rate similar to or better than his rate against righties is for real, and that makes him a great fit as an everyday lead-off hitter. The power he showed against lefties last year, however, is completely out-of-line with his track record. This gives us reason to project less power unless he can somehow repeat the strong showing against southpaws (not terribly likely) or show increased power against right-handers (more likely).

Of the four players who are likely to see significant time in the Twins' outfield this year, Span will probably move around the most. While I see him getting the majority of his playing time in left field, I suspect his ample experience in center field and right field will lead to a fair amount of playing time in both those spots. That's just fine, since Span is an above-average defender in any of three spots, but I do believe he's best-suited for left in the Metrodome, since there's more ground to coverthere than the baggy-shortened right field and since the other corner outfielders' stronger arms will play better in right.

On days that Span is sitting out or playing elsewhere, Delmon Young is likely to be manning left field. I think that Young will be a better defender this year than he was last year, when he was adjusting to a new position and bothered by a bad ankle, but he should still be kept out of left field when a fly ball pitcher like Glen Perkins or Scott Baker is on the mound. In general, I think Young represents a solid backup option in the event that Span gets hit hard by regression or injury, but for the time being Span is rightfully looking like the main man in left field.

I give Span a lot of credit. He has turned his game around and proven critics wrong, and now he seems poised to become the long-term lead-off solution the Twins have been seeking for over a decade. In order to do that, he'll have to first prove that last year wasn't a fluke; despite my past reservations, I'm pretty confident it was not.

Predicted 2009 Hitting Line for Span: .290/.375/.415, 10 HR, 65 RBI

Taking the Lead

In nine seasons since the turn of the century, the Twins have posted a winning record seven times and made the playoffs four times while watching their players hoist two Cy Young Awards and one MVP. During this run, the Twins have found a great deal of success and featured many great players. Yet, one thing has always seemingly been missing, and it is a quintessential component of any quality baseball club. The Twins have had their dominant aces, their automatic closers, their outstanding No. 3 hitters and their run-producing cleanup men, but during this span they have always been unable to pinpoint a true, great leadoff hitter.

Since they traded Chuck Knoblauch after the 1998 season, locating a true, prototypical leadoff man has been a difficult task for the Twins. A great leadoff hitter ought to possess a specific set of skills. He should be patient and willing to take pitches. He should have great speed, so that he can move himself into scoring position with steals and score from second on singles. Most importantly, he should be able to reach base at an exceptional clip so he that he is frequently aboard for the team's most productive hitters in the middle of the lineup. A little power doesn't hurt, but isn't generally considered a requirement. In general, the leadoff man should just be a great hitter, because ultimately he'll get more chances to bat than any other player in the lineup.

When the Twins began their successful run at the beginning of the decade, their leadoff man was Cristian Guzman. Guzie had some success in those days, but with his poor .299 on-base percentage in 2000 and his mediocre .337 OBP in 2001, he was hardly the ideal candidate to receive the most at-bats on the team. Late in the '01 season, the Twins handed the leadoff gig to Matt Lawton, and he was actually pretty well-suited for it. Unfortunately, his time there was short, as he was shipped to the Mets in return for Rick Reed during the following offseason.

In 2002, the Twins inserted Jacque Jones in the leadoff spot. Jones had a very nice offensive season that year, batting .300/.341/.511, but as a free swinger with impressive power and a lack of top-end speed, he looked much more like a No. 3 hitter than a leadoff man. Jones held the top spot in the lineup throughout the '02 campaign and into 2003, but midway through that season the Twins determined that they needed a change at the top. So they traded Bobby Kielty for Shannon Stewart, who had spent the past five seasons as a high-caliber leadoff man for the Blue Jays. Stewart provided a jolt for the '03 Twins, getting on base at a .384 clip while hitting for solid average and power down the stretch. Stewart continued as an effective leadoff hitter in 2004, batting .304/.380/.447, but he was limited to just 92 games due to a foot injury. And while Stewart's offensive production was very good in his early days with the Twins, the excellent speed he'd shown earlier in his career was gone; Stewart was just 9-for-16 on stolen base attempts in 157 games between 2003 and 2004.

Injuries continued to derail Stewart in 2005 and his production took a dive. He spent most of the year in the leadoff spot, but saw his OBP dropped to .323 as his once-impressive plate discipline evaporated. After posting a 36-to-25 strikout-to-walk ratio with the Twins in 2003 and a 44-to-47 K/BB in 2004, Stewart fanned 73 times while drawing just 34 walks in '05. At the end of the season, the Twins were once again in search of a quality leadoff hitter.

Terry Ryan sought to solve the problem that winter by trading a pair of prospects for Luis Castillo. Earlier in his career, Castillo had been almost the perfect embodiment of a prototype leadoff hitter. Capable of batting from both sides of the plate, Castillo had a patient approach that routinely yielded on-base percentages in the high-300s, and was also an elite base-stealer as well as a Gold Glove defender. Yet, by the time the 30-year-old Castillo had joined the Twins, his knees had worn down and he was no longer the player he once was. In 2006, Castillo got on base at a .358 clip while swiping 25 bases -- solid yet unremarkable numbers for a leadoff man. In 2007, Castillo's knees were in even worse shape. He continued to display a good eye at the plate, but was visibly hobbled running down the first base line and had turned into an extreme chop hitter with virtually no power. The Twins dumped him midway through the season, allowing Jason Bartlett and Alexi Casilla to split leadoff duties down the stretch, though neither performed well enough to seize the spot.

Last year, the Twins opened the season with Carlos Gomez manning the leadoff slot. A tremendous athlete with potential to hit for power and perhaps more footspeed than any other player in the league, Gomez had some of the attributes one would look for in a top-of-the-order bat, but his complete lack of patience at the plate and his inability to reach base at even a respectable rate made him a poor candidate for the job.

By mid-July, Gomez's on-base percentage was hovering around .280 and it was clear to just about everyone that the time had come for a change at the top of the lineup. A replacement came in the form of Denard Span, who took the job and ran with it. After taking over leadoff duties on July 22, Span batted .282/.375/.424. In his major-league debut last season, Span displayed all those skills associated with a prototypical leadoff man. He displayed great patience and discipline, racking up nearly as many walks (50) as strikeouts (60) in 93 games. He flashed impressive speed, stealing 18 bases on 25 attempts. He even flashed some power, clubbing 29 extra-base hits in 347 at-bats. All this as a 24-year-old rookie still acclimating to big-league play.

Span enters the 2009 season as the de facto leadoff man. What remains to be seen is whether he can be a long-term fixture in that spot, or whether he'll fizzle out or be dealt to another team, as have nearly all his predecessors. There is some reason to be conservative in projecting Span, who carries a mostly underwhelming minor-league track record. Yet, Span's abrupt turnaround shows signs of legitimacy. After four unimpressive months in Triple-A to start the 2007 season, Span hit .330/.420/.417 with a notable increase in plate discipline, and he carried that momentum forward into an outstanding full 2008 campaign. While one should remain cautious in assessing Span's future, there is plenty of reason for optimism.

The Twins have had an awfully difficult time finding a legitimate player to fill their leadoff role, but in Span they might have a consistent, reliable option over several years. That's something they've lacked since Knoblauch's departure, and could be a key to taking the Twins lineup to the next level.

Resurgent Rookies

Yesterday, the winners of the Rookie of the Year Award for both the American League and National League were announced. The top vote-getters, as expected and as picked by myself a month ago, were Rays third baseman Evan Longoria and Cubs catcher Geovany Soto.

As I noted when I picked my postseason award winners, the AL honor belonged to Longoria and it was "no contest." Yet, it's interesting to glance over the other players who received votes from the Writers' Association. White Sox second baseman Alexei Ramirez finished second behind Longoria (who received all 28 first-place votes), and Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury came in third. A look at the other players who received votes yields a couple familiar names:

Mike Aviles, Royals, 9; Armando Galarraga, Tigers, 9; Joey Devine, A's, 3; Denard Span, Twins, 3; Nick Blackburn, Twins, 1; Joba Chamberlain, Yankees, 1; Brad Ziegler, A's, 1.

That the Twins had a couple players receive votes for the ROTY award is not particularly exciting or surprising, but that those players ended up being Span and Blackburn has to be viewed with some measure of intrigue given the paths that both young men have followed.

Blackburn was 26 years old all season long, which is not terribly young for a first-year major-leaguer. He never followed the profile of a top prospect; the Twins drafted him out a small college in the 29th round of the 2001 draft and he debuted in rookie ball as a 20-year-old. He had intermittent success as he worked his way up through the low levels of the minors, but he never displayed much dominance and wasn't what you would call a fast riser. After fanning 7.04 batters per nine innings as a 22-year-old in Low-A ball, Blackburn never posted a K/9 rate higher than 5.51 and was relatively hittable everywhere he went. By spring of 2007, he was a 25-year-old preparing to start his third season at the Double-A level after posting mediocre numbers there the prior year. Simply put, Blackburn was the type of guy who prospect buffs pass off as a nobody.

That's when Blackburn turned his career around. He went 3-1 with a 3.08 ERA over his first eight appearances with New Britain, and was then bumped up to Rochester, where he surprised almost everyone by going on a spectacular run. Soon after joining the Red Wings, Blackburn entered a streak where he pitched over 40 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run, a span that encompassed the entire month of June. He ended up going 7-3 with a 2.11 ERA in 17 starts with Rochester, earning a September call-up to the big leagues and, in the offseason, a spot on top of Baseball America's list of the Twins' top prospects. Now, a very solid first full season at the major-league level has earned Blackburn a Rookie of the Year vote and a definite spot in this organization's future plans.

Span has followed a very different but equally unconventional path. When the Twins selected Span with their first-round pick in 2003, many viewed him as perhaps the ultimate replacement to another former toolsy high-school draft pick who was currently roaming center field in the Metrodome. This created a lot of pressure for the speedy teenager, and he increased expectations by posting a .339/.410/.403 line over the first half of the 2005 season as a 21-year-old in High-A Ft. Myers and then finishing the year by posting some respectable numbers in Double-A. Span seemed to be brimming with potential, and with his athleticism, it seemed that all he needed to do was keep improving and he'd be ready to roam the Twins' outfield in no time.

Unfortunately, the improvements didn't come. In 2006, Span repeated Double-A and posted a .285/.340/.349 line that was nearly identical to the .285/.355/.345 line he'd posted there during the second half of the previous year. Despite a lack of true success, Span was moved up to Triple-A in 2007, where he posted a pedestrian .267/.323/.355 line. With four-and-a-half years of pro ball under his belt, Span had seemingly settled into a niche as a nice defensive outfielder with some speed who could hit for a decent average but wouldn't ever get on base or hit with enough power to justify a regular spot in a major league outfield.

Yet, just like Blackburn, Span seemed to have a light-bulb snap in his fifth full season as a pro. He went on a tear in Rochester, producing like he never had before since being drafted. It wasn't the high batting average (.340) or the speed (15 stolen bases in 40 games) that came as such a shock. It was the newfound plate discipline (36/26 K/BB, .434 OBP) and power (3 HR in 40 games after totaling 7 HR in 509 prior minor-league games) that created real cause for excitement. After a short April stint with the Twins, Span was recalled in June and he proved that his success in Rochester was no fluke, actually improving on his patience and power (60/50 K/BB and 6 HR in 93 games). Like Blackburn, Span has gone from afterthought to big-league fixture in just a short two-year frame.

Those (like me) who tend to follow and obsess over prospects will always focus on a few key aspects of a player's performance: with pitchers, the ability to miss bats and limit walks; with hitters, the ability to take walks, make contact and hit for power. The two young players featured in this article both consistently displayed massive weaknesses in some of these areas -- Blackburn with his inability to post impressive strikeout rates and Span with his lacking on-base skills and totally absent power stroke.

And despite all their doubters, both players turned a corner and became crucial members of this year's surprising near-playoff team. Blackburn more than held his own against major-league hitters and delivered a tremendous outing in the biggest game of the season. Span was a spark plug at the top of the order, providing the Twins with their first true leadoff hitter since... Chuck Knoblauch, maybe?

Now, this is not meant to be a total abandonment of those prospect-analysis tenets. It remains true that pitchers who can't strike minor-league hitters out and don't reach the big-leagues until they're 26 aren't usually bound for success. It also remains true that speedy, diminutive outfielders who show almost no power or patience over their first full years generally won't suddenly develop both those skills at the age of 24. But Blackburn and Span should serve as loud reminders that players can adjust and improve, even if it takes longer than results-hungry prospect hounds would like.

Not To Be Forgotten

The Twins' 6-5 victory over the Mariners yesterday was not the prettiest you will ever see. But, in squeezing past the American League's worst team and salvaging a victory in what appeared to be a lost series, the Twins showed signs of resiliency and resolve that have made them an upstart playoff contender this year.

The Twins struggled to separate themselves early in the game, and with the score tied at three in the seventh inning, Raul Ibanez ripped a homer to right field that could have been a dagger in the hearts of this inexperienced squad. Ibanez has been a nightmare for the Twins this year, and it would have been totally fitting for his blast to bury the Twins, completing a series sweep and pushing the Twins into a five-game losing streak.

Yet, the Twins battled back, scoring three times in the top of the eighth inning to take back the lead. And when the Mariners came back with a run of their own in the bottom half of the inning and sent the tying run home on a two-out Miguel Cairo single, Denard Span delivered a perfect throw from center field to gun down Tug Hulett at the plate and end the inning, preserving a one-run lead.

Span's throw continued a trend of terrific outfield defense, and his two-run double in the fourth delivered a trend of key hits that have helped the Twins succeed in the manner they have. Evan Longoria's success in Tampa Bay will prevent him from being a serious Rookie of the Year contender, but the impact that Span has had on the Twins this year cannot be understated, and yesterday's game provided another shining example of this.

Many had left Span for dead after his five underwhelming seasons in the minors, but he is playing like a man on the mission. He seems determined to prove his critics wrong, and for that he deserves all sorts of credit. Meanwhile, the Twins as a whole are set on proving all the national doubters wrong by remaining right at the top of this AL Central race. After battling back to defeat the Mariners while the White Sox were drubbed by the Orioles yesterday, the Twins are now back within a game of first place.

The Twins' series in Seattle was not an impressive one, that much is for sure. Without a doubt, they need to play a lot better in Oakland. But considering how many times they've shown the ability to bounce back from adversity all season long, I don't think it's a stretch to believe they can.

Good to be Home

After a sloppy weekend series against the Royals, embodied by the very weak play of both Adam Everett and Nick Punto, the Twins garnered a very solid victory over the Yankees yesterday. Rather than discuss Everett's self-admittedly fluke home run that barely made the stands, the aspects of this game that deserve analysis are Glen Perkins' awesome start, the hustle of Denard Span and the overall play of the team. It would seem that Everett's homer comes as a timely slap in the face to my colleague who ripped on the shortstop in this space yesterday, but I am not ready to get too excited about a guy with a .213/.276/.351 hitting line.

Perkins didn't display outstanding control (70 strikes to 37 balls, three walks), but he only allowed four hits in eight innings while striking out four and picking up his ninth win, giving him a 9-3 record. Nothing in his numbers screams dominance, as he's allowed 129 hits in 110 2/3 innings with only 56 strikeouts against 29 walks. It feels like his success isn't terribly sustainable, given that he's a fly ball pitcher (0.90 groundball-to-flyball ratio) who doesn't rack up strikeouts, but to his credit last night's terrific start ended a short slump and brought his ERA back down to 4.07.

Span was probably the brightest offensive star, showing great hustle on the basepaths and scoring two of the Twins runs to help secure a victory. In the sixth inning, Span doubled, moved over on a Punto sacrifice, and scored on a Joe Mauer sacrifice fly. More impressive, though, was scoring from second on a infield hit by Justin Morneau in the eighth inning, adding a run that all but sealed the victory. Otherwise, the Twins didn't do too much against Sidney Ponson, but at least they finally scored a victory against the former Twins hurler.

In the end, though its disappointing that the Twins are a much more solid, fundamentally sound team at home while being a frustrating enigma on the road, at least they seem to be getting the job done against all comers -- including potent squads like the Yankees -- in their home stadium.

That home cooking will be put to the test tonight with Mike Mussina, a career Twins-killer, on the hill against Nick Blackburn.

Span the Man

With the Twins' frightening inability to hold a lead over the first two games of their series against the Mariners, yesterday's seventh inning seemed utterly predictable. The Twins had already let a four-run lead slim down to one, and the Mariners were threatening with Raul Ibanez on first and Adrian Beltre batting and representing the go-ahead run. Jesse Crain, who had just come on to face Beltre, worked ahead in the count 1-2 but then left a pitch up that was hammered the opposite way by Beltre. As the screaming liner sailed toward right field, there seemed little doubt that it was headed into the stands and that the Twins bullpen had relinquished yet another lead. But what wasn't predictable was the action of Denard Span.

Span saw the ball approaching, turned around and raced to the wall. Once he got there, he turned back around, found the ball and leaped up with perfect timing, grabbing the liner about a foot above the yellow line that runs across the top of the outfield wall. Span had robbed Beltre of a go-ahead two-run homer, and the Twins' narrow lead was safe. They'd add a few more runs in the eighth inning en route to a comfortable 7-3 victory, but Span's spectacular catch still looms as a series salvager.

Of course, Span was also the reason the Twins had a lead to protect in the first place thanks to his bases-loaded triple in the second inning. In total, he went 3-for-5 on the day with a stolen base and five RBI in what has to be considered the highlight of his major-league career thus far. While credit should be given to Brendan Harris, who doubled twice and scored twice, and to Nick Blackburn, who battled and turned in a Quality Start despite not having his stuff working very well, it seems quite clear that Span was the driving force in this victory. For the season, he's now hitting .315/.399/.469, and he's hardly slowed down the torrid pace he returned to the big leagues with. He's been a godsend in the leadoff spot, getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time in front of the team's best hitters, and his range in right field has been hugely beneficial -- never more so than yesterday.

It's easy to blow the importance of Monday and Tuesday's games out of proportion, especially because of the brutal fashion in which they were lost, but losing two of three in a road series is hardly devastating. Escaping from Seattle with a win was critical for the Twins, and the rookie Span deserves a whole heap of credit for making it happen.

Reversal of Fortunes

At the end of last week, things seemed pretty down for the Twins. After a brutal three-game sweep at Yankee Stadium, things started out poorly against the Indians in Cleveland on Friday, when the Twins lost a close game 5-4. For starting pitcher Livan Hernandez, it wasn't exactly a case of bad luck, as he allowed 15 baserunners in eight innings, including 12 hits, four of which went for extra-bases. For the Twins hitters, until Justin Morneau's ninth-inning. two-run homer, swung with futility against lefty Cliff Lee, striking out 10 times and walking no times, managing only two runs against the Cy Young contender.

However, luck did turn around the last two games. The Twins greeted Fausto Carmona's return to the mound with a fervant onslaught, eviscerating Carmona's pitching for 9 runs in just 2 2/3 innings, with seven hits and three walks, including a Brian Buscher three-run blast to knock Carmona out of the game. In total, the Twins offense managed 15 hits and four walks Saturday night, the stars being Buscher, with his 3-for-5 night and five RBI, Delmon Young, who went 3-for-5 with two RBI, and Justin Morneau, who went 2-for-3 with a double, two walks, and two runs scored.

Yesterday, the Twins offense didn't blow anyone out of the water, but they did rally in a very encouraging way. With the game tied in the ninth and lefty closer Rafael Perez on the mound, Morneau, who came into the game 1-for-8 against Perez, belted a game-winning double to center. Jason Kubel followed up with his own RBI single off the lefty. Anytime the Twins lefties hitters are doing that well against a tough lefty pitcher, then you know that things are looking up for the team. Here are a few other notes on the weekend:

* Yesterday's game also featured plenty of good pitching. Nick Blackburn bounced back from a rough start against the Yankees that featured some ugly defense by getting the opposite play behind him. Blackburn went seven innings, allowing only four hits and a walk while striking out three, lowering his ERA to 3.68. Of course, the two amazing catches by Denard Span certainly helped things. Span had quite the weekend in center field filling in for Carlos Gomez, who hurt himself Friday night making his own spectacular, athletic catch before hurting a disk in his back when he collided with the wall.

* Beyond the great starting pitching and the stellar defense of Span, one depressing statistic still lurks. Joe Nathan picked up his 28th save yesterday and with a scoreless inninig, dropped his ERA to a eye-popping 1.05. That goes along with a 0.91 WHIP and a 47/11 K/BB ratio in 42 2/3 innings. What is the problem? The continued underuse of Nathan, who has only three appearances in nine games since the return from the All-Star game. Nathan remains on pace for only 65 innings, so it is about time that Gardy starts to get slightly more flexible in his use, as Nathan could easily survive 70 or even a few more innings just fine, while increasing the Twins chances of winning in any close game.

* Lost in the 11-4 offensive shelling of Saturday night was good pitching from both Scott Baker and most of the Twins bullpen. Any improvement in the bullpen is good news for Twins fan, though its not all that meaningful that Brian Bass or Craig Breslow had solid scoreless innings in low-pressure situations. That is in fact the only places they have had much success this year. Baker, on the other hand, continues to show up as the Twins ace. Baker only pitched five innings Saturday, but he did manage to dominate many Indians hitters, striking out five. Overall, his numbers look impressive across the board, with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, a .242 BAA, and a 81/18 B/KK ratio in 96 innings. Easily, the B/KK ratio is the most impressive statistic for a young pitcher, as it bodes very well for his future.

Today, the Twins will start an important four-game series against the White Sox at the Metrodome, starting with a matchup of Kevin Slowey and Mark Buerhle tonight. Hopefully, the Twins bats keep up some success against lefties and that may well happen, since the Twins have hit Buerhle well this year, with 16 hits and two homers in 13 2/3 innings against him this year, giving him a 5.27 ERA against the Twins so far in 2008.

A Series To Forget

Getting outscored by the Yankees 25-7 in the series is probably the most troubling number I can bring up to describe the frustration of watching the Twins slug through an ugly sweep in New York. What's worse is knowing that, while the sweep in Boston was memorable and bad, this was much worse. At least in the Boston series, the Twins had a good chance to win two of the games if not for bullpen malfunctions.

In this series? The Twins were thoroughly dominated in all three games and yesterday, they certainly did not help themselves either. The most apparent example, of course, was Alexi Casilla's completely boneheaded mistake that cost Glen Perkins what could have been another solid to good outing. Instead of completing the double play with runners at first and second with one out in the fifth inning, Casilla walked cavalierly over to the second-base bag, believing the inning to be over and then started to jog to the dugout, flashing a self-satisfied grin before being confronted by Perkins and his magnified one finger, symbolizing the lack of continuity between the game going on for everyone else and the one going on for Casilla.

Casilla certainly has made vast improvements this year, as evidenced by his .323/.360/.438 line and 38 RBI in 226 at-bats out of the No. 2 spot in the order. Despite the offensive improvement, and many good plays at second, Casilla continues to make the same kinds of stupid or silly plays that he was criticized for the last few years since he was first called up to the big leagues. The truly unfortunate thing for Twins fans is that there seems to be little to no evidence that Casilla is going to stop making these kinds of befuddling errors anytime soon.

Thus, instead of getting through five scoreless innings, Perkins followed the shocking mistake by giving up a two-run double to new guy Justin Christian and giving the Yankees the lead for good. Of course, it would be hard to tell the story of the sweep or yesterday's game for that matter by just mentioning the bad luck facing Twins starters and the bad defense.

First, in fairness, one particular player continues to flash a good glove and that's Denard Span, who made an impressive catch by robbing an impatient Yankee fan of a fly ball in the right field corner. Second, that discussion would leave out the punchless offense, which managed a meager seven runs in the series overall and only three in last two games against Darrell Rasner and an aging Mike Mussina.

Granted, Mussina has had a very good year, with a sparkling 13-6 record, 3.26 ERA, and 81/16 K/BB ratio. In fact, it's quite the impressive comeback year. But it's still hard to excuse the Twins' stale offensive performance, with as many extra-base hits (two) as double-plays grounded into on the day. Further confusing was why one of the Twins best hitters against right-handers in Joe Mauer was sitting on the bench, while Mike Redmond hit in the third spot (yes, he's hitting .313 against righties and .270 against lefties this year, but its an aberration, because that split is reversed over the last three years to the tune of .370/.422/.468 against lefties and .279/.312/.332 against righties) and the middle of the order went 2-for-12.

Of course, mentioning Mauer on the bench is probably splitting hairs to some extent, but the point remains. The offense was pretty ugly against the Yankees, just as the defense and pitching overall was, and that is particularly evident in their lack of execution, which should worry some fans. For instant, over the three-game series, the Twins scored only seven of the 31 base-runners they managed to get on. That's under 25%. Additionally, ten base-runners were left in scoring position with less than two outs. In other words, that incredible ability to be clutch with runners on that was enabling the Twins to remain a top offense despite their lack of serious power or any plate discipline outside of Mauer may truly be fleeting and there may be signs of it disappearing.

What's the good news for the Twins fans? Well, it is certainly hard to make much good news out of getting sweep by a possible contender, especially as bad as this one was. However, thankfully the next series will not present the same challenge, as the Cleveland Indians have all but admitted their season is gone by trading away C.C. Sabathia, the Twins hater and killer. On the other hand, the Twins will still face the Cy Young-contending Cliff Lee on Friday, but the good news there is the Twins managed four runs off him last time out. That's certainly more hopeful than this week's lack of execution so far.

Top to Bottom

Carlos Gomez got his first full major-league season off to a pretty decent start this year. Through the first two months, he was batting .282/.315/.411, and along the way he'd stolen 17 bases and hit for the cycle on one occasion. He had been an igniter at the top of the Twins lineup, gaining a great deal of fanfare and seemingly earning his way into Ron Gardenhire's favor.

Things have been rough for Gomez since the end of May. Entering last night's game, he had hit .207/.244/.271 since June 1, striking out more than six times for every walk and getting thrown out stealing as often as he successfully swiped a bag during that span. Gomez's horrendous on-base percentage had become a liability at the top of the lineup, and with Denard Span returning to the Twins as an on-base machine, Twins fans became more and more irritated with Gardenhire's refusal to make a lineup adjustment.

Gardenhire steadfastly stood by his lead-off hitter for quite a while, claiming he didn't want to damage the excitable 22-year-old's confidence, but last night the manager finally relented and slid Gomez down to the ninth spot in the batting order while penciling in Span as the lead-off hitter.

The results weren't exactly game-breaking. The Twins lost 8-2, continuing their ineptitude at Yankee Stadium. Yet, Span reached base in three of his four plate appearances, going 2-for-3 with a walk. He took pitches and worked ahead in the count in three of his four trips to the dish. Simply put, he looked like a much better fit in the lead-off spot than Gomez. Of course, that much was obvious when you simply compared the two players' on-base percentages.

Swapping Span's and Gomez's spots in the lineup isn't going to make an earth-shattering difference in the team's offensive production. But, it is a very logical move and one that I'm glad to see Gardenhire finally make. Gomez can feel a little less pressure batting at the bottom of the lineup, while Span can put his on-base skills to use by batting directly in front of the team's best hitters.