Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

Yesterday, I broke down the starting rotation, which I deemed to be "the club's strongest and deepest position." Today we look at a unit that falls on the opposite end of the spectrum. Unless you're engaging in starry-eyed optimism, it's tough to view the bullpen as a strength for the Twins as we enter the 2011 season. They lost several quality relief arms during the offseason and signed no one to replace any of them, so much will hinge on a return to form from Joe Nathan and the emergence of several unproven hurlers in unfamiliar roles.

Fortunately, the bullpen is certainly an area that can be improved over the course of the summer through in-season acquisitions, but that means parting with assets when there were a number of established relief pitchers available for nothing but a few million dollars (or less) during the offseason.

Let's take a look at how the bullpen shapes up as we enter the 2011 season:

Joe Nathan
2010 Stats: Did not pitch

Charles Krupa, AP

After missing the 2010 season with Tommy John surgery, Nathan entered spring training this year under the pretense that he would have to earn back a closer role that had been held by incumbent Matt Capps. As it turns out, the basis for the coaching staff's evaluation on this matter was not performance, as Nathan has been awarded closing duties despite allowing nine runs on 10 hits over 7 1/3 innings this month with four walks and only three strikeouts. Those numbers are certainly concerning coming from someone who hasn't pitched in a year after undergoing a serious elbow operation, but the Twins like what they've seen in terms of velocity and command from Nathan so hopefully their confidence is well warranted. If not, they do have the luxury of Capps waiting in the setup role.

Matt Capps
2010 Stats: 73 IP, 42 SV, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB

The Twins gave up too much to get Capps at the trade deadline last July and this year they're paying him too much money. What's done is done, though, and at this point we're better off appreciating what he provides to the bullpen. Nathan's status will remain a question mark until we've seen him successfully close out several games, and should his spring training struggles persist Ron Gardenhire won't hesitate in shifting the proven Capps into the role. That's not a good scenario, since someone else would have to fill Capps' role as top right-handed setup man and no other candidate for that role has much experience pitching high-leverage relief innings in the majors.

Jose Mijares
2010 Stats: 32.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 28/9 K/BB

The 2010 season was a forgettable one for Mijares. Injuries limited him to about half of his normal workload, and when he was on the field he often lacked his typical sharpness. This year, the lefty is reportedly adding a two-seam fastball to his repertoire, which should improve his results against right-handed hitters (a vital skill in a bullpen that already includes two other left-handers). Mijares came to camp looking trimmer this year; if healthy, he should be a quality late-inning option throughout the season.

Kevin Slowey
2010 Stats: 155.2 IP, 13-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 116/29 K/BB

Setting expectations for Slowey the reliever is not easy. We know that he's a good pitcher, and it's not hard to see his outstanding control being a real asset in the bullpen. Then again, he's made only four relief appearances in his major-league career after serving as a starter almost exclusively throughout the minors, so this is new territory for the righty. How will he handle being called on to throw in tight late-game situations? Will pitching in one-inning stints allow him to add a few ticks to his 89-mph fastball? Will his secondary stuff be maximized? Slowey certainly has the potential to succeed in relief, but like many other members of this unit he's a question mark.

Glen Perkins
2010 Stats: 21.2 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 14/5 K/BB

As a 28-year-old who's out of options and hasn't been effective since the 2008 season, Perkins seemed like a lock to be non-tendered this offseason. Instead, the Twins gave him a contract and now a spot in their bullpen. The team has cited Perkins' solid performance while pitching in relief last September as a key reason for retaining him, but -- even looking beyond the fact that opponents hit .326 against him during that minuscule 12-inning sample -- this seems awfully short-sighted. Perkins doesn't miss bats, has been bad against lefties and has always been a guy who's allowed a lot of base runners. I don't get it.

Dusty Hughes
2010 Stats: 56.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 34/24 K/BB

The Twins were very impressed when they faced Hughes as a left-handed reliever for the Royals last year. It's not hard to see why; when playing against Minnesota the southpaw allowed only three runs on nine hits over 13 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he'll no longer be able to face the Twins and against all other opponents Hughes posted a 4.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 28-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 43 innings.  In other words, he wasn't very good, and it was his first extended look in the majors as a 28-year-old who'd been fairly unspectacular in the minors. Dedicating two spots in a questionable bullpen to pitchers like Hughes and Perkins strikes me as an extremely bizarre decision.

Jeff Manship
2010 Stats: 29 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 21/6 K/BB

Rounding out the bullpen at the onset of the 2010 season will be Manship, a guy who spent some time there last season. In his big-league career, the right-hander has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, which aren't exactly the kind of numbers that inspire late-inning confidence. Manship has been quite hittable ever since reaching reaching the highest levels (he's allowed 260 hits over 209 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors) and unless that changes he won't be particularly useful. It will be interesting to see how Gardenhire elects to utilize him.

Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

The Twins entered the offseason with five established starting pitchers under their control for 2011. By re-signing Carl Pavano, they upped that number to six and created a logjam of sorts. With jobs guaranteed to the top two starters, Pavano and Francisco Liriano, four pitchers were tabbed to compete for the final three rotation spots during spring training.

As it turns out, all four of those pitchers have performed well this month, so it comes as no shock that the odd man out is Kevin Slowey, a talented right-handed hurler who's had some friction with the organization and was left off the postseason roster despite winning 13 games last year.

While I don't necessarily agree with the decision to start Slowey in the bullpen, his presence there gives the Twins a quick and competent fall-back option should one of the top five starters falter or suffer an injury. Each of the Twins' six starters has a track record of big-league success and the organization also has top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A, so as we enter the 2011 season the starting rotation appears to be the club's strongest and deepest position.

Carl Pavano
2010 Stats: 221 IP, 17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 117/37 K/BB

I don't think Pavano's a better pitcher than Liriano, but the argument can certainly be made that he had a better season in 2010 and there's nothing wrong with giving him the veteran nod as Opening Day starter this year. Pavano has earned the billing with a lights-out spring training, allowing only six earned runs in 25 innings over five starts. His dramatic drop-off in strikeout rate in the waning months last season was somewhat unsettling, but all the Twins need from Pavano is 200 solid innings to make his $8 million salary look like a bargain. His FIP has been right around 4.00 in each of the past two years so that should be his baseline expectation.

Francisco Liriano
2010 Stats: 191.2 IP, 14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 201/58 K/BB

Liriano has become a rather controversial figure here in Minnesota. Debates swirl around whether or not he's a "true ace," whether his occasional struggles are more attributable to bad luck or mental weakness, and whether the Twins would be wise to trade him before supposedly inevitable injuries decimate his value. What should be universally agreed upon is that Liriano is a very talented pitcher whose arsenal is among the filthiest in baseball, and at age 27 he's still just entering his prime years. The lefty was victimized by an abnormally high number of bleeders, bloopers and seeing-eye singles last year, but these things tend to go in cycles. I expect him to be phenomenal in 2011, and when the year's over I expect the front office to be cursing themselves for failing to at least more actively pursue a three- or four-year deal this past offseason.

Brian Duensing
2010 Stats: 130.2 IP, 10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 78/35 K/BB

By virtue of his outstanding performance last year, Duensing was the first "bubble guy" to be awarded a spot in the rotation this spring. He'll pitch fifth sequentially to split up the lefties, but for all intents and purposes Ron Gardenhire views Duensing as his No. 3. That title seems to be more than earned based on the southpaw's core numbers over the past two years (15-5 with a 3.02 ERA) but a deeper glance shows a rather unspectacular 1.98 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a huge disparity in performance against lefties (.502 OPS) and righties (.747 OPS). Opposing managers will undoubtedly be stacking their lineups with right-handed batters, so Duensing will have his work cut out for him. Matching last year's magic will be an exceedingly tall task.

Nick Blackburn
2010 Stats: 161 IP, 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 68/40 K/BB

From an outside perspective, it's tough to understand why Blackburn would have been promised a rotation spot so quickly this spring. Last year he remained one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and for good measure he also posted the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career. The result was a mostly disastrous campaign that saw him demoted to the minors in late July with a 6.66 ERA, though he returned and pitched well down the stretch to finish with a 10-12 record and 5.42 ERA. The key factors in the Twins' decision were Blackburn's previous history as an effective starter (he tossed about 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009), his newly minted long-term contract and his good standing with the manager. While Blackburn's extreme contact tendencies can be hard to stomach, it's tough to downplay his value those first two seasons and the fact that a nagging elbow injury likely contributed to his struggles last year. If he gets bombed over the first couple months, Slowey will be ready to step in.

Scott Baker
2010 Stats: 170.1 IP, 12-9, 4.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 148/43 K/BB

Only 10 American League starters averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Baker last year, and only 11 averaged fewer walks. Not many teams can make a claim like that about their fifth starter, but the truth is that Baker is the team's No. 5 guy in name only -- ultimately there's a very strong chance that he'll end up being a more effective pitcher than either of the two above him here. In order to make his results match his outstanding peripherals, Baker will focus on two things this year: staying healthy and limiting base runners. His elbow bothered him at times throughout the 2010 campaign and continued to cause issues early this spring. And while his fly ball tendencies will always make him somewhat homer-prone, the long balls do a lot less damage when nobody's on base. Last year Baker posted his highest WHIP (1.34) since 2006.

Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

Likely Starter: Jason Kubel

Jim Mone, AP

Potential Backups: Jim Thome

For the purposes of this article, Jason Kubel is the "likely starter" at DH in that he'll probably fill the role on Opening Day, but in truth the position is more dynamic than that. Joe Mauer will invariably make a number of plate appearances there -- probably around 100 -- and Jim Thome can be expected to at least match that number in spot starts. In an ideal world, Delmon Young would also draw occasional DH duty against left-handed pitchers.

So, even if he stays healthy and productive all year, Kubel won't really be a full-time starter at designated hitter. Instead, he'll likely get his fair share of days off and play the outfield occasionally (more than occasionally in the event that either Michael Cuddyer or Justin Morneau goes down at some point).

Kubel's lack of speed makes him a liability in the outfield, so the hope is that both Morneau and Cuddyer can shake off their injury concerns and stay healthy, enabling the 28-year-old native South Dakotan's best asset -- his bat -- to take the spotlight.

In 2009, Kubel was one of the most productive designated hitters in the league, hitting .300/.369/.539 with 28 home runs and 103 RBI while gaining a reputation as one of the baseball's premier clutch hitters (at least until the playoffs rolled around).

The lefty slugger's power and run production numbers remained mostly intact last year, as he blasted 21 homers and drove in 92 runs, but his batting average dropped from .300 to .249. He struggled against southpaws, but that's nothing new; what really poisoned Kubel's performance was a drop-off against right-handers. His ..260/.328/.464 line against them -- while nothing to be embarrassed about -- looked downright human in comparison to his .322/.396/.617 line against them the prior year.

The true Kubel may lie somewhere between his dazzling '09 and his pedestrian '10, but I'm a firm believer that he's closer to the former. He was an incredible talent coming up through the minors, and while it took him several years after knee surgery to rediscover his form, there was nothing illegitimate about Kubel's brilliance in 2009. He was just a hitting machine.

We saw flashes of that last season, but without the same consistency. Maybe it was because of injuries -- he was nagged by a few different ones throughout the year. Maybe it was the new ballpark -- he posted a higher OPS on the road than at home. Maybe it was being forced out of his comfort zone -- Morneau's concussion pushed Kubel into regular outfield duty in the second half.

Whatever the case, I expect better things from Kubel this summer, and while that might be offset somewhat by a slightly less extraordinary season from Thome I still believe we can safely view designated hitter as a bona fide strength for the 2011 Twins. For a position where the sole duty is "HIT!" you can't ask for a much better trio than Kubel, Thome and Mauer.

If you had to find a downside, it would be that all three are left-handed, which brings me back to my belief that Young should be written into the DH spot against particularly daunting southpaws.

Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Kubel: .290/.350/.490, 25 HR, 90 RBI

Position Analysis: Right Field

Likely Starter: Michael Cuddyer

Paul Battaglia, AP

Potential Backups: Jason Kubel, Jason Repko, Ben Revere

Right field is Michael Cuddyer's position.

Well, sort of.

Over the past two years, Cuddyer has frequently been asked to move away from his established home, taking over first base after Justin Morneau went down in September of 2009 and last year bouncing around the infield before again settling at first in place of a sidelined Morneau.

Cuddyer has received more than his fair share of adulation from coaches, teammates and media for his willingness and ability to shift around the field, but lost in that praise is the fact that he's not terribly adept at fielding any of these positions and last year he was extremely disappointing offensively.

The average right fielder in the American League hit .276/.350/.441 in 2010. The average first baseman hit .259/.345/.443. Cuddyer, despite being an $8.5 million player who was labeled team MVP by his manager, posted a .271/.336/.417 line while splitting time mostly between those two positions. He made 25 more plate appearances than he did in 2009 and yet hit less than half as many home runs. He grounded into 26 double plays, a total that led the team and ranked second in the AL.

Despite the dismal performance, Cuddyer will be paid $10.5 million this season because of a ridiculous contract stipulation that forced the team to activate his 2011 option before the 2010 season. I'm not entirely convinced the Twins would have declined the lucrative option even if it had been triggered this past winter, but there's really no reasonable case to be made that Cuddyer is worth his hefty salary for this season based on last year's performance so he has much to prove, especially with free agency looming.

Cuddyer was one of a number of Twins players to undergo surgery during the offseason, an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee to alleviate soreness that, he told reporters at the time, had bothered him all season. This is a likely culprit for the hugely underwhelming numbers at the plate, and presuming that the issue (along with a foot wart removal that held him out of early spring training) is now fixed, we should expect much more from the right fielder this year.

Will Cuddyer actually stick in right all year long? That's obviously the hope, but if anything should go wrong with Morneau, Cuddy will be breaking out the first baseman's mitt and taking his act to the infield. In that event, Jason Kubel would once again take over regular duties in right. Cuddyer's better suited for right field than first base and Kubel's certainly better suited for DH than the outfield, so it's in the best interests of everyone that Morneau stay healthy and on the field this year.

Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Cuddyer: .275/.340/.470, 20 HR, 90 RBI

Position Analysis: Center Field

Likely Starter: Denard Span

Kathy Willens, AP

 Potential Backups: Jason Repko, Ben Revere

When Denard Span burst onto the scene in 2008 and went on to cement his impressive rookie performance with an equally strong 2009 campaign, he eventually came to be viewed as a godsend by Twins fans. Not because he was, in the grand scheme of things, an especially spectacular baseball player, but because he finally provided a legitimate on-base threat at the top of the lineup.

Finally, a Twins team that had been searching for an answer at the leadoff spot since trading Luis Castillo midway through the 2007 season and had opened the '08 campaign with out-making machine Carlos Gomez filling the all-important role had found a young player with a good eye who'd managed a .390 on-base percentage in his first 1,000 MLB plate appearances. As icing on the cake, Span sprinkled in a little power and a lot of speed, leading the league in triples in 2009.

So last year, when Span's OBP dropped to .331, just a couple ticks higher than the MLB-average leadoff man, it served as a major buzz kill. In his first year after signing a long-term deal with the club, the new cornerstone center fielder went from being a major offensive asset to a thoroughly mediocre hitter with substandard pop.

The drop-off in performance could theoretically be attributed to any number of things (Span himself placed partial blame on the playing surface at Target Field, though he did manage a .302 average at home), but the main issue was that he simply wasn't hitting the ball as hard.

Fewer ground balls found their way through the infield for hits, contributing to a 47-point drop in batting average. He drove fewer balls into the gaps and over the fence, helping a explain a 67-point drop in slugging percentage. Span's speed (26-for-30 on stolen bases) and plate discipline (60-to-74 strikeout-to-walk ratio) remained intact, but when he put the ball in play the results just weren't nearly as sterling as his first two big-league tours.

So the key for Span this season, offensively, will be raising his average. And, contrary to his personal misgivings about the natural grass at Target Field, it's other ballparks that represent his greatest opportunity for improvement. Span hit just .228 on the road last year; if his overall hitting line this season can more closely resemble his .302/.371/.390 mark from Target Field he should be just fine.

On the defensive end, it's perhaps unfortunate for Span that he happens to be following a pair of truly transcendent center fielders. Torii Hunter had a lengthy reign as one of the game's best gloves, gaining a reputation for pulling homers back over the Metrodome wall, and Carlos Gomez established himself as a truly spectacular outfielder during his stint.

Span's first season as full-timer in center was a mixed bag. His speed enabled him to cover ground and he was by no means a failure out there, but he whiffed on quite a few plays that Twins fans have grown accustomed to seeing made. He won't be confused with Hunter or Gomez any time soon.

Like it or lump it, the Twins will roll with Span in center as long as he's healthy in the short-term, but I do wonder if down the line they will give consideration to shifting him back into a corner spot (where his range truly stood out) and letting Ben Revere take over.

Should Span go down with an injury at some point this year, you can bet Revere will get his chance early.

Predicted Hitting 2011 Hitting Line for Span: .285/.370/.380, 6 HR, 55 RBI

Position Analysis: Left Field

Likely Starter: Delmon Young

Jed Jacobsohn, Getty

Potential Backups: Jason Repko, Ben Revere, Jason Kubel

With circumstances being what they are, it's difficult to maintain a completely positive outlook on most of the Twins' key players this year without inserting rather significant caveats.

"Joe Mauer could return to MVP form this year if the knee which bothered him throughout much of last season and into this spring is at full strength."

"Francisco Liriano could be a Cy Young contender if he can overcome the mental hurdles which have plagued him."

"Justin Morneau could have a dramatic impact in the middle of the Twins' lineup if he can keep his concussion symptoms at bay."

And so forth.

With that being said, one player I'm unabashedly optimistic about this season is Delmon Young. Unlike the majority of core hitters who suffered through disappointing and/or injury-riddled seasons in 2010, Young finally broke through with a career year, tallying 21 homers and 112 RBI while besting his lifetime OPS by nearly 100 points. At age 25, he's entering his fifth full big-league season and there's little reason to think he won't be able to build on that success.

I've not been one of Young's biggest proponents over his first few years in Minnesota. That's not because I doubted his talent or ability, but because he simply wasn't a very valuable player. In each of his first three big-league seasons (including '07 with the Rays), Young was essentially the same player -- a guy who could post a solid batting average but wouldn't supplement it with much in the way of patience, power or defensive aptitude.

In his breakout 2010 campaign, Young continued to avoid walks like the plague, drawing only 28 in 613 plate appearances, but he made substantive improvements in other areas, most notably contact (he struck out in only 13 percent of his plate appearances, compared to 22 percent in '09) and power (his 68 extra-base hits nearly matched his total of 72 from his first two seasons with the Twins).

While his approach at the plate wasn't always picture perfect (and it likely never will be), Young had the look last season of a young player who was finally growing into his muscular physique. As you can see in the table below, he hit the ball on the ground less often, which helped him turn some of his singles into doubles and home runs:
 

	PA	GB%	FB%	SLG
2008	623	55.2	27.8	.405
2009	416	49.7	34.1	.425
2010	613	44.7	39.8	.493

When you're hitting the ball in the air only once out of every four plate appearances, like Young did as a 22-year-old in his first season with the Twins, you're not giving yourself a lot of chances for deep outfield drives and home runs, which explains why about 75 percent of his hits that season were singles. However, as Young has matured over the past three years he's started to get under the ball with increased frequency, and the results have been very positive. If the trend continues this year his fly ball rate could rise well over 40 percent, and if he's hitting the ball in the air that often with his powerful frame it could result in a whole lot of gopher balls, even in spacious Target Field.

Even if the power incline continues, Young still won't be a hugely valuable all-around player. The run production is nice, but he doesn't draw walks and remains a slow-footed, abysmal defender -- an issue which could worsen this year if his early troubles with turf toe carry over into the regular season.

Ron Gardenhire would be wise to find more opportunities to work Young into the lineup as a designated hitter this season, especially against lefties and with fly ball pitchers on the mound for the Twins. His bat is turning into an unquestionable asset but that doesn't fully offset the damage he can do in the outfield.

Should Gardy choose to lessen Young's outfield load this year, superior defensive replacements would include Jason Repko and Ben Revere, who could ultimately be Young's successor in left.

Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Young: .310/.360/.550, 30 HR, 120 RBI

***

I also wanted to take some time today to explain a new feature I'm adding to the site this year. You may have noticed a new widget on the sidebar, just above the classic Christopher Walken pic, with the header "Twins Blog Tickets."

Here's the deal: I've partnered with a company called TiqIQ to offer readers this new avenue for finding tickets to games. If you click through the widget, you'll be taken to a TiqIQ Twins page (sporting a slick NTB co-branded design) with aggregated ticket and price listings from such third-party sellers as StubHub, TicketsNow and eBay.

Here are some of the unique features of TiqIQ:

1. Aggregated Listings: They aggregate all major sellers in the market so you can find the best deal.
2. TiqZone Categorization: They break each venue up into TiqZones, which are groupings of sections that we’ve determined are comparable in value.
3. TiqIQ Statistics: They provide ticket-level buying intelligence through their IQ rating and TiqIQ Statistics.
4. E-Ticket Filter:  Want tickets last minute?  You can find all the available e-tickets so you can print your tickets from home or the office.
5. All-in Pricing Option:  Before you complete your sale you'll be able to tell exactly how much your tickets will cost including all service and shipping fees.

I've added this feature because I think it can provide real value to readers who are looking for tickets to games, as third-party is often the only way to go for Twins fans considering the high demand at Target Field. If you decide to use TiqIQ to buy tickets, please let me know how it goes.

Position Analysis: Shortstop

Over the weekend, the Twins waived reliever Pat Neshek, who was claimed on Sunday by the Padres. For my thoughts on the move, read my entry from yesterday. For analysis of the shortstop position for the 2011 Twins, read on...

***

Likely Starter: Alexi Casilla

Potential Backups: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Trevor Plouffe, Matt Tolbert

Good starting shortstops are tough to come by. The Twins know this better than anyone; since Cristian Guzman's departure following the 2004 season, they have struggled mightily to find a legitimate long-term solution at the position, with 12 different players making starts there over the past six years and only one (Jason Bartlett in 2007) starting more than 100 games in a season.

A position that has seen more changes of direction than a drunken frat boy after a bat spin will once again follow a fresh blueprint in 2011, with the Twins turning to perpetual underachiever Alexi Casilla in what will likely be his last chance to prove himself as a starter.

You can count on two fingers the number of times in the past decade that the Twins have had someone play in 100 games at shortstop and post an OPS higher than .700 (Guzman in 2001 and Hardy in 2010 -- that's it), so offensive expectations for Casilla should be set low, particularly considering that he himself is a .249/.306/.327 hitter in 1,073 career plate appearances.

Fortunately, since he'll be hitting ninth in the batting order, low expectations are OK on the offensive end. If Casilla can prove merely competent with the stick while swiping a few bases here and there, he can avoid being a liability at the bottom of the lineup. Competency is no given for Casilla, though, as his lifetime hitting line and execrable offensive performances in 2007 and 2009 will attest.

Casilla is also a question mark on the defensive end. He's made only 24 big-league starts at shortstop and, given the mixed reviews for his glove at second base, there's plenty of reason to wonder whether he can hack it full-time at one of the field's most challenging and important positions.

The Twins like Casilla and were adamant about giving him one more shot, largely because he's fast and inexpensive, but their ability to identify quality shortstops over the past six years has hardly been a strength, and given his spotty history and lack of prolonged success as a starter we must acknowledge that there's a fairly decent chance Casilla will fizzle out.

That's a rather frightening scenario because the depth behind him is almost non-existent.

Should Casilla warrant removal from the lineup, it's possible that Ron Gardenhire could shift Tsuyoshi Nishioka to short, since finding a new starter at second base would be considerably easier. I do wonder, however, if the coaching staff would actually trust Nishioka as anything more than an emergency play at shortstop, given that they've shown little interest in having the Japanese import even try his hand at the position this spring.

The other options to replace Casilla would be Trevor Plouffe, a natural shortstop who seems nowhere near ready to play in the majors, and Matt Tolbert, who is stretched both offensively and defensively as a regular.

Ultimately, the Twins are counting on a player with a .633 career OPS who has never played 100 games in a big-league season to finally overcome his flaws and transform into a serviceable starting shortstop. If that doesn't happen, they'll have to cycle through unproven and inexperienced players until they can find someone who will adequately carry the load.

In short, this position has an awful lot of potential to become a major headache for the Twins in 2011.

Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Casilla: .250/.310/.320, 3 HR, 30 RBI

Position Analysis: Third Base

Likely Starter: Danny Valencia

Photo by Jim Donton

Potential Backups: Matt Tolbert, Luke Hughes

Danny Valencia seems hell bent on proving everyone wrong.

Drafted in the 19th round back in 2006 despite his impressive productivity for a major college program, the native Floridian signed rather than returning for a senior year, eager to showcase his ability in the pros.

Valencia did just that. He hit .311/.365/.505 during a 48-game debut at rookie-level Elizabethton after signing in '06, and throughout his steady ascent of the minor leagues he never really stopped hitting. Questions occasionally swirled about his plate discipline, his true power potential and his maturity, but through it all Valencia just kept hitting. He never posted a batting average lower than .284 at any level, and every single year after being drafted he showed enough to earn a midseason promotion.

One could certainly argue that last year's promotion -- from Triple-A to the majors -- wasn't earned. Valencia was hitting .292 at the time he was called up, but sported a mediocre .720 OPS and had managed zero home runs in 202 plate appearances.

He was called up out of necessity. Nick Punto had been staggeringly awful at the dish and Ron Gardenhire had resorted to Michael Cuddyer at third. The team was desperate for a legitimate option at the hot corner, but expectations for Valencia were set low.

All he did was hit .311/.351/.448 with seven homers and 40 RBI over 85 games, finishing third in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.

The third baseman's determination to prove everyone wrong seems to fit with his personality. Anyone who's spent time around him will tell you the kid is cocky. But that cockiness is not to be confused with arrogance. What Valencia possesses is an amiable self-assuredness, at times brash but rarely pompous. Frankly, it's a trait I wish more Twins players possessed (but, of course, it's one that tends not to mesh well with Gardenhire).

Like any player coming off an out-of-nowhere rookie splash, Valencia is a candidate to regress this season. Depending on your viewpoint, that likelihood may be increased by a rather lofty .345 BABIP last season (though his imperviousness to poor batting averages in the minors would seem to suggest he has a skill).

So far this spring, Valencia has been one of the most impressive players in camp, hitting .393 with a cool 1.095 OPS. If a sophomore slump is supposed to be setting in, no one has apparently informed him as of yet.

Should their newly entrenched third baseman succumb to advanced scouting reports or injury, the Twins would look to either Matt Tolbert or Luke Hughes. But I don't expect that to happen, and I'm sure Valencia would agree.

Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Valencia: .290/.340/.410, 10 HR, 50 RBI

Position Analysis: Second Base

Likely Starter: Tsuyoshi Nishioka

J. Meric, Getty

Potential Backups: Alexi Casilla, Luke Hughes, Matt Tolbert

Much like catcher and first base, we find a question mark topping the depth chart at second base for the Twins entering the 2011 season. Unlike Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, however, the uncertainty surrounding Tsuyoshi Nishioka has nothing to do with his health. Instead, it sprouts from the fact that the 27-year-old, recipient of a $15 million financial commitment during the offseason, has yet to play his first major-league game.

As the 2010 season came to a close, we knew the Twins were going to give Alexi Casilla a shot at one of the middle infield spots this year. We also knew Orlando Hudson was not going to be back. So ultimately, the front office decided to replace J.J. Hardy with Nishioka. Knowing this organization's modus operandi, this preference comes as no surprise.

In many ways, the two are polar opposites. Whereas Hardy was a slow-footed, strong-armed power hitter by nature, Nishioka is a slap-hitting speedster whose lack of arm strength quickly dissuaded Ron Gardenhire from even giving him an extended look at shortstop.

And so, Nishioka will serve as the Twins' second baseman, where his mediocre arm will be less exposed and where his quick feet should be a greater asset. While his three Japanese Gold Gloves may overstate his defensive value, it's not difficult to envision Nishioka as an above-average fielder at second.

We find far less clarity with his offensive outlook. He captured a batting title in the Nippon Professional Baseball league last year by hitting .346, but prior to this emergence he'd been a sub-.290 career hitter, which quickly puts a damper on comparisons to Ichiro (who was a .350 lifetime hitter in Japan). Nishioka's plate discipline is merely decent and I expect his power to be almost non-existent, so his success at the plate will be largely dependent on his ability to maintain a high batting average.

Last year's .346 mark -- which bested his previous career high by nearly 50 points -- was heavily influenced by a sky-high BABIP. For hitters, this can be a sustainable skill, and it's certainly an area where Nishioka could continue to excel considering his high contact rate, his quickness out of the box and his outstanding foot speed (Bill Smith has called him "one of the faster runners in the game").

With that being said, the Japanese infielder will find it more difficult to turn weak grounders and soft liners into hits stateside, where the pitchers and fielders are far superior. It's also worth noting that in 2009, the year prior to his breakout campaign, he batted just .260.

NPB stars transferring to Major League Baseball don't have a particularly strong historical success rate, but Nishioka carries the advantage of being a rising star coming off the best season of his career and just entering his prime years of age.

For the time being he's an unproven rookie, and I hope that Gardenhire will treat him as such in spite of his high profile, but if his ability to hit around .300 transfers over from Japan the switch-hitter could be a quality fit between Denard Span and Joe Mauer in the No. 2 spot.

If not, he could become a considerable liability there.

Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Nishioka: .270/.330/.330, 3 HR, 35 RBI

Position Analysis: First Base

Likely Starter: Justin Morneau

Carlos Gonzalez, Star Tribune)

Potential Backups: Michael Cuddyer, Justin Huber, Jeff Bailey

When he's been in the lineup, production has never been an issue for Justin Morneau. Over the past five years, the Canadian first baseman has consistently been among the most productive in the league at his position, averaging a .900 OPS with 27 home runs and 105 RBI.

The issue for Morneau, recently, has been staying in the lineup. In both 2009 and 2010, he missed lengthy stretches of time due to freak injuries; first a fractured vertebrae, then a severe concussion.

To their credit, the Twins have made do without the former MVP in each of those two seasons, surging to postseason berths with Michael Cuddyer filling in at first base. Still, it's clearly a situation they'd like to avoid this year. There's no doubt that Morneau, with his uncommon ability to hit for both average and power with increasingly excellent plate discipline, can have a profound impact on the offense's fortunes when he's performing at peak level.

Morneau missed the final three months of the 2010 season due to concussion symptoms that persisted into the offseason and even into early spring. He overcame a huge hurdle last week by making his Grapefruit League debut on Friday, marking the first time in more than eight months he'd taken part in a live baseball game.

By his account, Morneau's symptoms are finally just now clearing up. That the afflictions which haunted him for eight months would suddenly disappear just weeks before the start of the baseball season seems awfully convenient, so it's entirely possible that they've grown more mild and he's simply decided to start pushing through them a little more than he's been willing to in the past. Either way, Morneau is now taking part in all baseball-related activities and, barring a setback, he's on pace to take the field on April 1st when the Twins return to Rogers Centre for the first time since he suffered his concussion there last July.

Projecting the slugger's performance for this year is exceedingly difficult. He's a tremendously talented hitter and last year, prior to the mishap in Toronto, he was putting together the most impressive offensive campaign of his career. If he can pick up where he left off it'd be a coup, but I'm hesitant to expect that for two reasons: residual injury effects and plain old rust.

Ideally, Morneau will be completely free of symptoms from the get-go this season, putting the traumatic brain injury behind him without issue. That's a best case scenario but probably not an entirely realistic one. Given the persistence of the concussion's lingering after-effects throughout the offseason it's hard to imagine he won't at least experience some minor symptoms as he attempts to return to everyday duty. Should he encounter some level of fogginess, nausea or sensitivity to light, one has to wonder how it will impact his performance as he attempts to read, register and swing at 95 mph fastballs and wicked breaking pitches.

Even if he does fully overcome concussion symptoms, we must acknowledge the fact that Morneau is returning from what is likely his longest hiatus from the sport since he began playing it. Not only has he been unable to participate in games for the past eight months, he has largely been unable to even take part in off-the-field activities designed to keep his skills sharp (such as batting practice and fielding drills). If he gets off to a bit of a slow start, it shouldn't come as a surprise.

It goes without saying that Morneau will now be extremely susceptible to any type of blow to the head. While every possible measure will be taken to protect his cranium, certain incidents are unavoidable. I suspect the Twins will show maximum caution with him this year, providing him with more frequent days off and holding him out of the lineup for weeks (or months) should symptoms reemerge.

With this being the case, it seemingly would have made sense for the front office to invest in some sort of legitimate backup who could keep Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome in their natural (and most suitable) roles. Unfortunately, it looks like Cuddyer will be Morneau's sole legitimate backup; no other candidate to play the position can be found on the 40-man roster (save for Chris Parmelee, who is a far cry from big-league ready).

Much like with Joe Mauer, Morneau's health is a question mark and the depth behind him is less than stellar, so the Twins will have to cross their fingers and hope for the best. We have a lot more reason for optimism than we did just a couple weeks ago, but there's a distant chasm between appearing in a couple exhibition games and permanently conquering one of the most serious concussion cases in recent history. Morneau's challenge is just beginning.

Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Morneau: .290/.360/.480, 25 HR, 100 RBI

Position Analysis: Catcher

Today I launch my annual Position Analysis series. Over the next few weeks, I'll break down each position on the 2011 Twins, sorting through depth and setting expectations for the starter's performance.

Likely Starter: Joe Mauer

Potential Backups: Drew Butera, Steve Holm, Rene Rivera

We kick off this year's series of Position Analysis pieces with the most important position for the Twins: catcher. I say this not just because the starter there is the team's best and highest paid player, but also because the drop-off from starter to backup is the most drastic on the roster -- and perhaps in all of baseball.

As such, the health of Joe Mauer will be paramount to the Twins' success this year. Quite simply, if Mauer is healthy he'll be one of the best players in the league and a pivotal difference-maker. The three times in his career that he's amassed 600-plus plate appearances in a season, Mauer has won three batting titles and finished first, fourth and sixth in the American League MVP balloting.

The fact that he has reached that 600-PA plateau only three times in a seven-year career, however, helps illustrate what a pervasive issue the injuries have been. And this spring, as is often the case, the stud catcher's health is a point of uncertainty.

While Mauer managed 584 plate appearances over 137 games last season -- very respectable numbers for a catcher -- there's little doubt that various ailments took a toll on his performance. Over the course of the summer, he dealt with a bruised left heel, tendinitis in his right shoulder and inflammation in his left knee (not to mention other issues we likely weren't privy to). It's that last injury that has presented an ongoing concern.

Mauer's balky knee -- the same one that cost him most of his rookie season -- bogged him down late in the season and into the playoffs, sapping his power by limiting his ability to push off from his back leg. He underwent surgery during the offseason but admitted that when he reported to camp this spring he was "a mess"; and he's received multiple injections over the past several weeks to lubricate the achy joint. He caught two bullpen sessions over the weekend and is reportedly set to begin seeing some action at DH this week, but there's still no timetable for him start crouching behind the plate in actual games.

If the offseason surgery proves successful and Mauer's left knee is close to full strength this season, there's little reason to expect anything other than a stellar campaign. If not, we'll start seeing more and more (somewhat warranted) discourse about the necessity of a position switch, and we'll also be exposed to increased dosages of his backup, Drew Butera.

Butera is a good defensive catcher with an excellent arm, but his complete lack of ability with the bat renders him a considerable liability as a regular. His .533 OPS last season reflects his offensive chops with a fair amount of accuracy (he posted a .613 OPS in the minors) so if Mauer goes down and he becomes a starter, Butera essentially erases the AL advantage of a designated hitter because his production isn't far from what one would expect from a pitcher.

The depth behind Butera is even more disconcerting. The Twins signed a couple veteran minor-leaguers in Steve Holm and Rene Rivera during the offseason, but might be better off looking to one of their own prospects like Chris Hermann or Danny Lehmann. In any case, we'd be looking at a backup who would be extremely overmatched in the big leagues.

The hope is that this doesn't become an issue. For a multitude of reasons, it's absolutely vital to the Twins' chances that Mauer stay healthy and productive this season. He's shown in the past that he can take the field by storm without much of a spring tune-up, putting together the best month of his career in May 2009 after skipping all of March and April, so there's plenty of reason to believe that once he finally suits up Mauer will be ready to once again stake his claim as one of the best players in baseball.

Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Mauer: .340/.430/.520, 17 HR, 90 RBI

Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

Today, we wrap up the Position Analysis series by taking a look at the bullpen. At one point, this was shaping up to be one of the team's strongest units; Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser were set to return after missing all of 2009, adding a pair of power arms to a group that had already finished strong last year. The Twins ended up trading away Bonser, but later replaced him with Clay Condrey, who figures to match the production Bonser might have provided (albeit in a different form). The real loss comes in the form of Nathan, who will miss the season due to an elbow injury that will require Tommy John surgery.

Nathan's loss will be felt in the ninth inning, but odds are that someone from within the organization (or outside of the organization) will be able to step into that closer role without costing the team too many wins. Yet, beyond just losing a closer, the Twins are losing 70 innings of excellent, high-leverage performance in Nathan. While the current bullpen members will have to step up and fill that void, that still leaves 70 innings that will have to be filled by a player who might not have even been on the roster otherwise. As such, the Twins' bullpen depth will be tested this year in Nathan's absence.

Fortunately, if ever there was an acceptable time for the Twins to lose their elite closer, this is it.

The aforementioned return of Neshek, combined with the return of every key member from last year's relief corps and the presence of a few seemingly ready and capable arms in the high minors, gives the Twins more bullpen flexibility than they've had in past years. Nathan will be missed, but there are enough quality arms here that the Twins should be able to withstand his loss.

Let's take a look at the five pitchers likely to make the bullpen out of spring training, as well as a few others who have a shot at the sixth and (maybe) seventh spots or could get a shot to step in at some point during the year.

THE LOCKS

Jon Rauch

2009 Stats: 70 IP, 3.60 ERA, 49 K / 23 BB, 1.33 WHIP

Rauch seems likely to get the first stab at filling Nathan's shoes in the ninth inning. At nearly seven feet tall, he delivers from a different trajectory than any other pitcher in the league, which should help him keep hitters off-balance in one-inning stints to end games. Indeed, for his career, Rauch has a 3.09 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in save situations compared to 3.79 and 1.23 overall. With that being said, he's been hit hard at times over the past few years and his control isn't great, so it's unclear how long he'll retain closing duties.

Matt Guerrier

2009 Stats: 76.1 IP, 2.36 ERA, 47 K / 16 BB, 0.97 WHIP

Guerrier was spectacular last year, ranking among the league leaders in appearances for a third straight season while allowing less than one baserunner per inning and holding opponents to a .207 batting average. It was the second time in three years that Guerrier has been one of the league's best setup men, and I suspect that his proven ability in that role will deter Ron Gardenhire from trying to nudge him into the closer spot despite the numbers suggesting that such a course of action might make sense. Be wary, though; Guerrier's tremendous overall numbers last year were buoyed by an unsustainable .214 batting average on balls in play, and there's no telling whether the extensive wear on his arm over the past few seasons might start to creep up on him again like it did late in the 2008 campaign.

Jesse Crain

2009 Stats: 51.2 IP, 4.70 ERA, 43 K / 27 BB, 1.45 WHIP

Earlier this week, I posted the following tweet: "For what it's worth, my guess is that Crain finishes the season as the Twins' team leader in saves." That's partially based on a gut feeling, but it's also based on the facts that Crain had extensive closing experience in the minor leagues, historically hasn't struggled much against left-handers (though that certainly wasn't the case last year) and pitched extremely well during the final couple months of the '09 season. That last point is the most salient; Crain underwent major shoulder surgery prior to the 2008 season and it can take a long time to fully return from such an operation. Crain's performance in August and September last year suggests that he's fully back, and if he can keep throwing like that he can be a dominant force in the ninth inning.

Jose Mijares
2009 Stats: 61.2 IP, 2.34 ERA, 55 K / 23 BB, 1.18 WHIP

Over his first 81 major-league appearances, Mijares has posted a 2.12 ERA while allowing only 53 hits in 72 innings. Those are outstanding numbers, and they're largely the result of proper usage; he's held left-handed hitters to a minuscule .458 OPS and Gardenhire has given him the opportunity to face a lot of lefties. If his role is expanded too much, Mijares' mediocre control and susceptibility to righty hitters are likely to become liabilities. Fortunately, Gardy seems to recognize those flaws, which is why Mijares isn't being viewed as a legitimate contender for the closer role and why he'll likely keep the same LOOGY label this season.

Clay Condrey
2009 Stats: 42 IP, 3.00 ERA, 25 K / 14 BB, 1.21 WHIP

The Twins nabbed Condrey after he was non-tendered by the Phillies this offseason, and will pay him $900K to handle middle-inning duty in the bullpen. That's a higher sum than they'd have been likely to pay either Bonser or Bobby Keppel, who were both sent packing, so clearly the Twins have faith that Condrey can be a valuable piece. The veteran righty has posted a 3.16 ERA in 111 innings over the past two seasons. He doesn't strike many people out but has registered exceptional ground ball rates in each of the past two years, so his four homers allowed this spring shouldn't be too alarming.

THE REST

Pat Neshek
Coming into the spring, Neshek seemed like a lock to open the season in the minors. In spite of his successful big-league track record, he hadn't pitched in a big-league game since May of 2008. However, Neshek has looked great this spring, and with Nathan gone the Twins will be needing an extra right-handed power arm for the late innings. Quickly, Neshek's chances to coming north with the team seem to be improving, as do his chances of ultimately taking over ninth-inning duties.

Brian Duensing
I mentioned Duensing as a candidate to start the other day, but if he makes the team out of spring training my guess is that it will be as a long reliever. He'd give Gardenhire an extra left-handed option behind Mijares, and his history as a starter makes him a good candidate to pitch in long relief.

Ron Mahay
Mahay spent the final month or so of the 2009 season with the Twins and performed well as a second lefty specialist. Just this week, the team re-signed him to a minor-league contract. He's 38 years old and no one's idea of a dominator at this point in his career, but it wouldn't come as any surprise to see him round out Gardenhire's bullpen.

Anthony Slama
Drafted out of college as a 22-year-old and moved somewhat methodically through the Twins' system, Slama isn't viewed by many as a great prospect because of his advanced age. However, it's tough to look past his absolutely spectacular minor-league numbers, and he's been outstanding in limited duty this spring. I doubt he'll make the team out of spring training, but I'd be stunned if he's not pitching for the Twins by July.

Rob Delaney
Delaney has risen through the minor-league ranks alongside Slama and posted similarly strong numbers. He needs to prove himself over a prolonged period at Triple-A, but he's another guy who can be called upon at any point this season and figures to be a productive big-league reliever.

Alex Burnett
A converted starter, Burnett had tremendous success last year in his first season as a full-time reliever, posting a 1.85 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 78 innings split between Single-A and Double-A. He'll presumably open this season in Rochester, where a strong showing could get him a big-league look. Unlike Slama and Delaney, though, Burnett is still quite young (only 22) so he won't be rushed.

Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

The Twins enter the 2010 season with a stacked offense, a deep bullpen and a newly re-signed MVP, so everything seems in place for a deep run this year. The most questionable aspect on the club, though, has to be the starting rotation. After all, the Twins ranked third-to-last in the American League last year with a 4.84 starters' ERA and none of Bill Smith's major offseason moves involved supplementing this unit.

However, the return of Kevin Slowey from wrist injury, the re-signing of Carl Pavano and the emergence of Francisco Liriano this winter provide plenty of reason for optimism. That the five hurlers I project to make the rotation have combined for a 1.64 ERA this spring is certainly helping to feed that optimism.

Let's break down the Twins' projected five-man rotation, with a quick look at the candidates to step in should someone go down.

Scott Baker
2009 Stats: 200 IP, 15-9, 4.36 ERA, 162 K / 48 BB, 1.19 WHIP


Having been the Twins' most consistent starter over the past three years and having been named Opening Day starter this year, Baker enters the season as ace by default. Whether he'll actually play up to that level remains to be seen -- only once has Baker posted an ERA under 4 in a full season -- but it's easy to be comfortable with him as a rock at the front of the Twins' rotation. Last year, he recovered from a rocky first handful of starts to go 15-5 with a 3.81 ERA over his final 29 starts, including 8-2 with a 3.28 after the All-Star break. Without any shoulder problems bogging him down this spring, it seems fair to expect that type of production over the course of the entire season this year.

Carl Pavano
2009 Stats: 199.1 IP, 14-12, 5.10 ERA, 147 K / 39 BB, 1.38 WHIP

After being acquired in August last year, Pavano posted a 4.64 ERA and 59-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 regular-season starts for the Twins, finishing his year on a high note with a dazzling outing against the Yankees in Game 3 of the ALDS. Pavano tends to serve up a sizable number of hits and is no frontline starter, but he's a control pitcher fully capable of posting solid overall numbers and he provides a welcome veteran edge to the Twins' relatively young pitching staff.

Kevin Slowey
2009 Stats: 90.2 IP, 10-3, 4.86 ERA, 75 K / 15 BB, 1.41 WHIP

When Slowey went down for the season with an injury last July, his numbers weren't terribly impressive. Despite a 10-3 record, Slowey held a 4.86 ERA and 1.41 WHIP that both screamed mediocrity, and he'd allowed a painful 15 home runs in just 90 innings. That performance was undoubtedly hampered by the wrist problems that ultimately required season-ending surgery; now that Slowey has gotten that taken care of, the hope is that he'll return to his 2008 form (3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) or better. There aren't many starting pitchers around the league capable of striking out five times as many batters as they walk, which Slowey has done for two straight seasons now.

Nick Blackburn
2009 Stats: 205.2 IP, 11-11, 4.03 ERA, 98 K / 41 BB, 1.36 WHIP

No American League pitcher gave up more hits than Blackburn last year, and yet the right-hander still managed to finish with better than average numbers in the ERA and WHIP categories. That's because Blackburn is very stingy with walks and -- when he's on -- very good at inducing weak contact and keeping the ball in the park. Things can get a little ugly when he's not on, as displayed by his brutal stretch following the All-Star break last year, but overall Blackburn has posted nearly identical numbers in the past two seasons and has been a very solid middle-of-the-rotation starter in both.

Francisco Liriano
2009 Stats: 136.2 IP, 5-13, 5.80 ERA, 122 K / 65 BB, 1.55 WHIP

Liriano is the Twins' ace in the hole, so to speak. He was dreadful last season, struggling with command issues that mostly seemed to stem from mental hurdles, but he built up his confidence with an outstanding stint in winter ball and he's carried that confidence to spring training, where his numbers have been absolutely outstanding. Liriano has the best stuff of any Twins starter and has shown in the past that he's got serious ace ability. If he can fulfill that potential this year, he'll change the complexion of the entire rotation.

Other Options...

Brian Duensing
Duensing pitched extremely well down the stretch last year, providing an unexpected boost to a beleaguered rotation and playing a substantial role in the Twins' postseason run. That performance has earned him a first crack at the rotation should one of the top five starters fail and perhaps a spot in the bullpen, but his mediocre track record in the high minors, combined with his uninspiring results this spring, will likely keep him out of a starting role with the Twins for now.

Glen Perkins
After a solid 2008 campaign, Perkins entered the '09 season as a bona fide member of the rotation and a seemingly well positioned piece in the organization's long-term rotation plans. After a season full of injuries, poor performance and bickering with management, Perkins' stock has dropped off a cliff. If he's still with the organization come Opening Day, he'll almost certainly be in Rochester, and with much to prove.

Anthony Swarzak
He pitched very well upon being called up last year, but began to struggle immensely once the league caught on to him. Swarzak appears slated to start the year in Triple-A but is a nice piece to have around in case of emergency and is only 24 years old.

Jeff Manship
Manship got his feet wet at the big-league level late last year, joining the bullpen in August and then making a handful of starts in September as the Twins raced back into the postseason race. The high-pressure circumstances weren't exactly ideal for a young pitcher to be breaking into the majors, but Manship held his own and is likely to get another shot at some point this year.

Position Analysis: Right Field

Likely Starter: Michael Cuddyer
2009 Stats: .276/.342/.520, 32 HR, 94 RBI

Cuddyer brings big value to the Twins on and off the field.

Potential Backups: Jason Kubel, Jacque Jones

Plodding right fielders who can hit post an 850 OPS while playing marginal defense aren't terribly uncommon, and that's basically the mold that Michael Cuddyer falls into. Yet, his value to the Twins stretches far beyond those traits.

He's the big right-handed power stick that can break up the big left-handed boppers in the middle of the Twins lineup. He's the cannon-armed defender who has kept even speedy runners from trying to take the extra base on hits to right field. He's the longest-tenured member of the Twins, a charismatic veteran and a clubhouse leader. One could argue that the $19 million Cuddyer will make over the next two seasons is exorbitant, given that players with his skill set are generally available at a lower cost. But the Twins are paying for a lot more than what shows up on the stat sheet.

Cuddyer demonstrated his value late in the 2009 season, when Justin Morneau's back injury forced the outfielder to don a first baseman's mitt and take over a position he'd barely played before during the most crucial stretch of the season. Cuddyer didn't complain; in fact, he stepped up and took his game to an all-new level, batting .325 and cranking eight homers while driving in 24 runs over the team's final 21 games. The Twins went 17-4 during that stretch, and Cuddyer -- who'd had a relatively mediocre season at that point -- was the offensive catalyst. Seeing him power the offense as he did during that final stretch has to make fans giddy to see what he'll be able to do this year, back in his natural position and sandwiched between two of the league's most feared left-handed power hitters.

Indeed, Cuddyer's 843 career OPS against southpaws looms large in the Twins' lefty-heavy lineup. He figures to garner plenty of RBI opportunities this year with a set of quality hitters in front of him. Health is always a concern for Cuddyer, who had his performance hampered in both 2007 and 2008 by injuries, but if he can stay healthy he'll be a crucial cog in the Twins' lineup. His range in the outfield is far from stellar, but much like the Metrodome, Target Field features a short right field wall that helps cover up for Cuddy's lack of foot speed.

From a visual standpoint, Cuddyer is not the most intimidating guy in the world. He's a red-cheeked Southern boy with a big smile usually smeared across his face. But there's no doubt that opposing pitchers feared him when he stepped up to the plate during those finals weeks of the 2009 season, and he'll likely be instilling similar fear this summer when he steps up to the plate as part of the parade of sluggers populating the middle part of the Twins' lineup.

Not too bad for a dime-a-dozen slugging corner outfielder.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Cuddyer: .275/.340/.500, 25 HR, 100 RBI

Position Analysis: Center Field

Likely Starter: Denard Span
2009 Stats: .311/.392/.415, 8 HR, 68 RBI

Span has quickly become one of the team's most indispensable players.

Potential Backups: Jacque Jones, Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert

Following the 2007 season, the Twins were left needing both a center fielder and a player who could competently fill the leadoff spot, as the departures of veterans Torii Hunter and Luis Castillo had left vacancies in these key areas. When newly appointed general manager Bill Smith acquired Carlos Gomez in the Johan Santana trade during the ensuing offseason, he hoped he'd found a player who could ultimately thrive in both those roles. Two years later, Gomez is gone and a different -- and rather unexpected -- player is flourishing as the Twins' leadoff hitter and center fielder.

Back at the time when the Twins were scouring for Hunter's replacement, few would have guessed that Denard Span would ultimately be the answer. The former first-round pick was coming off his second straight minor-league season with a sub-.700 OPS, and seemingly lacked the on-base skills to project as a table-setter at the top of the lineup, which was how the Twins had envisioned him when they drafted him.

Yet, not visible in Span's overall Triple-A numbers from 2007 is that he came on strong late in the year and began to show increased patience. Span carried that success forward into spring training the next year, putting together a strong showing but still losing out on a roster spot to Gomez. Span returned to Triple-A and scorched the ball for a couple months, batting .340 in 40 games, before joining the Twins and putting together a season that merited serious Rookie of the Year consideration. Given that Span's .387 on-base percentage and .432 slugging percentage in his big-league debut seemingly came out of nowhere (he'd posted a .323 OBP and .355 SLG in Triple-A the previous year), many were skeptical of his ability to sustain that level of production. Span essentially erased any doubt last year by putting forth another tremendous effort and cementing himself as the club's long-term leadoff hitter.

As a result, Span was rewarded with a five-year contract this spring. While the deal only covers years that Span was under team control anyway (with an option to buy out his first year of free agency), it is a good faith showing by the organization. Combined with the Gomez trade, the contract seems to emphatically state that Span is the Twins' center fielder and leadoff man for the foreseeable future. And that gives the team's fans plenty of be happy about.

Span has essentially been a prototypical leadoff hitter over the past two years. He takes quality at-bats, gets on base with great regularity and has excellent speed. He can bunt. He's not vulnerable to left-handed pitchers (in fact, his numbers against southpaws have been significantly stronger). His ability to fill this role exceptionally is not in doubt. What is in some doubt is how he will fare as a full-time center fielder.

Span spent much of the past two seasons playing left field, where his defense was exquisite, but his work in center has not been quite as stellar. From an observational standpoint, Span noticeably missed balls last year that Gomez would have reached, and from a statistical standpoint Span rates drastically worse in center (-13.8 UZR) than he does in (16.7) left. Now, his number of innings in center field don't provide a large enough sample to draw real statistical conclusions, and indeed I don't believe that his ugly UZR in 700 career innings there really does him justice. Span has enough range to track down most of the balls he should and is equipped with an adequate arm, so I don't see him being a liability at the position. In fact, given his athleticism, he could easily become an asset there as he gains more regular big-league experience and grows accustomed to his new home park.

From the past several paragraphs, you can probably tell that I'm more than comfortable with Span as the team's starting center fielder. What I'm not comfortable with is the backup plan should Span go down with injury. That's because, right now, it doesn't appear that there really is one. The top candidate in camp right now to back up center field is Jacque Jones, but given that he was out of the majors last year it's a bit of a stretch to imagine that he'll be on the Opening Day roster. Nick Punto can play the position in a pinch and the Twins have given Alexi Casilla some reps in center field this spring, but neither is a particularly attractive option. If Span suffers a serious injury and needs to head to the disabled list, the Twins can call up someone to fill in (and Ben Revere is starting to look like a more and more legitimate candidate to do so this spring), but should Span get dizzy again and need a few days off, there doesn't appear to be anyone who can adequately handle the position on a short-term basis. This will certainly be something to follow throughout the season.

With a dearth of alternative options, Span's absence would leave an immense void in center field and in the leadoff spot, so his health and productivity will be of vast importance to the Twins' chances this year. I've doubted him in the past, but after watching him consistently thrive as a big-leaguer over the past two years, I'm done with that.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Span: .290/.375/.410, 5 HR, 50 RBI

Position Analysis: Shortstop

Likely Starter: J.J. Hardy
2009 Stats: .229/.302/.357, 11 HR, 47 RBI

Will a change of scenery help Hardy rebound from a brutal '09 season?

Potential Backups: Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, Alexi Casilla

The Twins entered the 2009 season with Nick Punto as their starting shortstop and finished it with Orlando Cabrera there. If you're wondering how urgently they wanted to upgrade beyond those two, it should be clear from the fact that Bill Smith pulled the trigger on a trade for J.J. Hardy just days after the conclusion of the World Series, while other organizations were still drawing up their offseason plans.

Many fans viewed the addition of Cabrera at the trade deadline last year as an integral part of the team's late surge to the postseason. That makes sense, given the timeline; Cabrera arrived at the end of July with the Twins' record at .500 and by the end of the year he was one of the first players charging onto the field as Carlos Gomez crossed home plate to send the Twins to the playoffs after the team had gone in 34-25 over the final two months of the season with Cabrera as their starting shortstop.

While Cabrera was a relatively productive player in the second half last year, his defense left plenty to be desired and his lack of on-base skills made him a rather poor fit for the No. 2 spot in the lineup. He also turned 35 years old just after the season ended, so retaining him would have, at best, given the Twins yet another passable one-year stopgap at short. Given the team's existing instability at second and third, Smith wanted to go a new direction at short and find a player who could settle in as a long-term solution. He hopes he's found that player in Hardy.

By now, we all know Hardy's story. He came into the league as a 22-year-old, and in his third season turned into a stud, ripping 26 homers and driving in 80 runs while posting a .277/.323/.463 as a 24-year-old shortstop with an excellent glove. That's a tremendous performance -- one that earned Hardy his first All-Star appearance -- and he followed it up with a similarly dazzling effort in 2008, when he batted .283/.343/.478 with 24 home runs and 74 RBI while remaining stellar in the field.

At that point, Hardy was a 26-year-old power-hitting shortstop with excellent defense and several years of team control; he was a player any team in the league would have loved to get their hands on, but one that would require a pretty overwhelming package to pry away from the Brewers.

What a difference a year makes. Last year, Hardy stumbled out of the gates, hitting just .156 over the first month of the season, and after rebounding a bit in May, he slumped through the next couple months and found himself demoted to Triple-A in mid-August (a move that could have had as much to do with delaying his free agent eligibility as getting him out of the Brewers lineup). Hardy returned to Milwaukee in September, but continued to struggle down the stretch and finished the season with hugely disappointing offensive numbers. His drop in batting average coincided with a drop in power (just 11 home runs in 465 plate appearances) and a rise in strikeout rate -- both troubling signs.

Without any major injury to explain away the struggles, there is serious cause for concern that Hardy is no longer the outstanding player he seemed to be emerging as in the 2007-08 seasons. With a strikeout rate that has risen in each of the past three years, it could be that scouts are catching up with him and pitchers have started to figure him out. That very fear has drastically reduced the market for Hardy, as evidenced by the fact that the Twins were able to acquire him in return for their own underperforming head case, Carlos Gomez.

At the very least, Hardy does have a few things going in his favor as he moves across the border to Minnesota. For one thing, he's moving to a new league, where opposing pitchers and managers are generally unfamiliar with him. Getting a fresh start, with new teammates as well as new opponents, may help Hardy get back to doing the things that made brought him success in the past. In addition, Hardy will be under far less pressure in a Twins lineup that already has its fill of star players. He entered last season as the No. 5 hitter for Milwaukee; this year, he'll likely open the season as the Twins' No. 7 or No. 8 hitter.

The Twins seem confident that the change of scenery can get Hardy back on track, and if they're right, his powerful right-handed bat would be a boon for an offense currently dominated by lefties. This club isn't accustomed to having heavy hitters at the shortstop position nor in the bottom part of the lineup, and if Hardy can get back to the level he was at in 2008 -- or close to it -- he'll provide a breath of fresh air while adding balance to the batting order.

Even if Hardy isn't able to return to the level of production he enjoyed during the '07 and '08 campaigns -- and as you'll see below I'm fairly conservative in my projections for him this year -- he'll still be a valuable piece for the Twins as long as he continues to cover significant ground at shortstop. Even with the offensive drop-off last season, Hardy posted an 8.8 UZR/150 in the field, ranking him sixth among MLB shortstops and placing him miles in front of Cabrera, whose -13.7 UZR/150 ranked as the worst in baseball outside of the immortal Yuniesky Betancourt. That's a lot of extra balls gobbled up in the middle infield, which can make Hardy an asset even if his stick is mediocre.

Backup up Hardy at short will be Punto, Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla. Should Hardy go down with an injury or continue to decline on offense, I suspect we'd see Punto slide over to short with Brendan Harris taking over at third, although there's a slight chance that prospect Trevor Plouffe could get a look.

As we've seen over the past three installments in this Position Analysis series, the Twins have had a difficult time finding long-term solutions at all of their infield spots outside of first base. With a platoon of backups set to handle third base and a one-year veteran stopgap manning second this year, the 27-year-old Hardy represents the team's best chance at finding a true regular who can hold down his position for multiple years.

A return to his 2008 form would make Hardy one of the American League's finest shortstops and an absolute godsend at the bottom of the lineup. A continuance of his 2009 struggles would render him another in a long line of failed experiments at the shortstop position. I'd settle for something in the middle of those two extremes, which I suspect is what we'll get.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Hardy: .260/.315/.405, 16 HR, 50 RBI