Still Winning

Over their past three series, the Twins have gone 5-4. That's not a great record when two of the series were against the Mariners and Royals, but here's the bright side: all four games the Twins lost during that span were eminently winnable. In Seattle, the Twins dropped a pair of games after the bullpen blew late leads. The single losses to Kansas City and New York both came in 12-inning affairs. One can fume about the bullpen's ineffectiveness in most of those losses or the team's inability to close out wins, but I think it's a pretty optimistic sign that the Twins were hardly outplayed in any of the losses and -- had they taken care of business -- they quite easily could have gone 8-1 or even 9-0 during that span.

The Twins aren't flashy, but they continue to play well and win. They stepped up to the challenge presented by the Yankees this week, and haven't lost a series at home since early June. Many felt that the Twins' mid-season success was unsustainable, buoyed by fortunately timed hits and starting pitchers performing over their heads. Yet, here they are, just a game out of first place on August 15. And with Francisco Liriano recently joining the rotation and providing a massive upgrade over Livan Hernandez while Delmon Young's bat continues to heat up, these Twins don't seem to be going away. The final six weeks should be very interesting.

Here are some various notes to take you into the weekend:

* Carlos Silva, whom the Twins will face tonight in their series opener against the Mariners, recently ranted to the press about a perceived lack of effort from his teammates. Said Silva (while oddly referring to himself in the third-person):

"Maybe Chief [Silva] has to come and grab somebody in his neck and pin them to the wall," Silva told reporters. "I'm very close to doing that, so write that down.

"Maybe half of the team wants to do the best they can. I can talk about the starting rotation; we want to do our best every time we cross that line, you know?" he said. "But maybe half of the team doesn't have that mentality. They only think to finish strong and to put up the numbers. That's great, but that affects us. As a team, that doesn't work out.

"Instead of moving a runner, they want to get a base hit just because of the numbers. Instead of to get a ground ball, maybe I want to strike him out because of my numbers, you know what I mean? That's what we're doing right now.

"I don't care if we are 40 games behind, we should play better than this."

Silva's accusations are somewhat humorous, considering that as hard as he's supposedly trying he still sports a 4-13 record and 5.93 ERA. But furthermore, it's interesting to note that his brand of leadership involves calling out his teammates publicly rather than airing out complaints internally in the clubhouse. This is a commonality that Silva shares with another supposed clubhouse leader who left the Twins this past offseason -- Torii Hunter.

Hunter, of course, openly complained that other Twins players couldn't play at less than 100 percent, once threw a punch at Justin Morneau, and frequently had quotes in the papers with other veiled shots at his teammates. This type of "leadership" is ineffective and does more harm than good, creating hostility amongst players in the clubhouse.

Even without a clearly defined "team leader," the Twins are still succeeding right now, which is a strong indication that the whole concept is probably overrated. But the team does have quiet leaders -- Morneau, Joe Mauer and Joe Nathan most likely chief among them due to their seniority with the club. And I have not once seen any of these guys come out and complain about their teammates. Instead, they lead by example and if they're airing any grievances, it's happening in the clubhouse and not in the press.

The disruptive brand of leadership offered by players like Hunter and Silva is not missed.

* Considering how many of the Twins' losses this year have come as the result of a bullpen meltdown, what do you think the team's record would be had Pat Neshek remained healthy and effective? This is just a random question and I don't know the answer, but I'd be interested to hear some guesses.

* Adam Everett's recent mini hot streak would seem to have come about with rather ironic timing, seeing as how I spent Monday's post railing on the shortstop and concluding that he should be released post-haste. Prior to sitting out Wednesday's game against the Yankees, Everett had started five consecutive games, going 6-for-17 with a home run and six RBI during that span. Now I'm reading about how Everett is "quickly grabbing hold of the club's starting shortstop job."

The offensive boost has been nice and his run-producing contributions have certainly helped the Twins over the past week, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes and I have little doubt that soon enough Everett will revert to the incapable hitter he has been for the entirety of his career. Moreover, I'm not seeing enough of improvement in Everett's defense to make me believe he has any value at shortstop. While Everett has not committed an error since the one that cost the Twins a victory in their series finale against the Royals on Sunday, he continues to look unimpressive defensively at short. His arm continues to be erratic and even when his throws are on-target, they seem to move in slow motion.

Everett is still displaying solid range and getting to a lot of balls, but that doesn't do a whole lot of good when his arm is so weak. While chatting with Aaron Gleeman earlier in the week, he suggested that if Ron Gardenhire must continue writing Everett into the lineup, perhaps he should consider a position switch to second base. There, Everett's range would still be an advantage, and his poor arm would not be as much of a liability. Everett has played shortstop exclusively throughout his career outside of a late-game appearance at second a couple weeks ago, but there might be some merit to the idea of moving him closer to first base.

Of course, I still think the Twins are better off simply replacing him at short with Brendan Harris (829 OPS since July 1).

* After a horrendous start to the season, Jason Kubel went on a tear in May and June to bring his numbers back to respectability. Now, he has seemingly leveled off. At the end of June, Kubel was hitting .263/.324/.466; he currently sports a nearly identical line of .263/.327/.462. During that span, his batting average has never been higher than .267 and has never been lower than .259. His OPS has fluctuated within a 20-point window. All things considered, it seems fair to say that this is the true Jason Kubel.

If that's the case, there's no reason to be dissatisfied. Those are above-average numbers relative to the average AL designated hitter, and he stands as the third-best hitter on the team. Yet, I still believe that Kubel is capable of more. He might finish the season with numbers similar to the ones he has now, but I don't think he's done growing as a hitter. We'll see.

The Biggest Disappointment

One can make the argument that each offseason acquisition currently playing for the Twins has been a disappointment to some degree. Carlos Gomez has looked raw and over-matched. Brendan Harris has failed to meet his hitting line from last year. Mike Lamb has had a miserable season at the plate. Delmon Young's rumored power potential has not materialized in any form. Livan Hernandez and Craig Monroe, of course, were recently released as a result of their ineffectiveness (and Hernandez has gotten his career as a Rockie off to a great start!).

Yet, to me, no acquisition has been a greater disappointment than Adam Everett.

I was not a fan of the Everett signing to begin with. The Twins were one of the worst offensive clubs in the league last year, and they entered the offseason with a need to add players who could help them score more runs. As such, I found little logic in signing one of the worst-hitting regular players of the past several years to fill a position of need. Many made the argument that Everett's reputedly spectacular fielding ability at one of the most important defensive positions on the field was enough to offset his offensive shortcomings and make him a decently valuable player. There's certainly some truth to that, and I made sure to acknowledge Everett's track record as an outstanding defender, but added that "I'm not really sure the Twins are a team that can afford the luxury of a superb defensive shortstop who can't hit worth a lick."

Here we are on August 10, and Everett has fallen far short of even my meager expectations. His hitting has been atrocious, as expected; even after poking a pair of RBI singles in yesterday's game, he is batting .209/.275/.319, which is quite awful even for him. But what has truly been frustrating is his defense. Everett has not been a spectacular defensive presence at shortstop. Frankly, he hasn't even been adequate. His arm is absolutely horrendous. While he has often shown the solid range and slick glove that he was known for in Houston, Everett's total lack of arm strength has prevented him from making more than a handful of impressive plays at shortstop this season, and has frequently caused him to fail to convert on routine plays.

This disappointment was on display over the weekend in Kansas City, in series where Everett started all three games. On Friday night, he committed an error while fielding a ground ball. In Saturday night's game, a wide throw from Everett pulled Justin Morneau off first base, allowing a runner who should have been out to reach. Yesterday, in the most egregious example of the weekend, Everett essentially cost the Twins a sweep-clinching victory when he allowed the tying run to score from third with two outs in the eighth inning because he threw high to first base after fielding a routine grounder that should have gotten the Twins to the ninth inning with a lead.

In fairness, Everett's poor defense has not necessarily been his fault. From the very beginning of the year he has been affected by shoulder problems, and he's spent much of the year on the disabled list as a result of these issues. Yet, as his performance during the past few days has shown, these issues continue to deter his performance and are still preventing him from getting the job done at shortstop. And since he cannot hit nor field adequately, Everett really has no use to this club. The Twins were on the verge of designating him for assignment a couple weeks ago before Alexi Casilla's injury, and that was the right decision. There are other players who can more effectively fill Everett's role.

Say what you will about Hernandez and Monroe, they did serve a purpose for this team. Hernandez ate a lot of innings and gave the team several Quality Starts, while Monroe delivered some huge home runs. When it became clear that the players had worn out their usefulness (well, maybe a little while after that became clear), the team parted ways with both and replaced them with more deserving replacements. The time is now to do the same with Everett.

Thursday Bloody Thursday

In the comments section yesterday, a reader implied that Ron Gardenhire doesn't even bother trying to win on Thursdays. I'm sure that's not true, but alas, after their 8-7 loss in 10 innings to complete a split with the Rangers yesterday afternoon, the Twins are 0-6 on Thursdays this season. This is an indication that the team seems to be packing it in on the final games of series. In part this may have something to do with the players being tired or worn out on these afternoon finales, but Gardenhire's puzzling getaway day lineups probably aren't helping matters.

In some respects, it's understandable that Gardenhire isn't able to put a maximized lineup on the field on Thursday afternoons. For instance, he generally likes to give Joe Mauer a break when the team plays a day game after a night game. That takes perhaps the best hitter out of the lineup, but it's perfectly a perfectly understandable and defensible rationale.

What's not defensible is yesterday's decision to have Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Craig Monroe all in the starting lineup while Jason Kubel sat on the bench. Cuddyer's awful performance thus far was rewarded with a promotion to the No. 3 spot in the lineup, while Young and Monroe batted fifth and sixth. Young's bat has heated up lately, so his presence in the middle of the lineup made some sense, but Cuddyer was hitting .217/.268/.313 on the season and Monroe had collected one hit in his past 18 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Kubel has been taking significantly better at-bats as of late, and that has been reflected in his numbers (1200 OPS, 4 BB/2 K in his past eight games). On top of all that, left-handed hitters had a 200-point advantage over right-handed hitters against the Rangers' starter, Vicente Padilla. For a manager who claims to base his lineup decisions on who matches up well and who's swinging the hot bat, Gardenhire's decision to keep leave Kubel out of the starting lineup yesterday seems counterintuitive. Without a doubt, Kubel should have been starting over one of those three players.

Cuddyer actually had a good game, going 2-for-4 with two singles and a pair of walks. Meanwhile, Young and Monroe combined to go 0-for-9 with four strikeouts. It was a particularly bad game for Young, who hit into a pair of rally-killing double plays on the way to stranding seven runners in an 0-for-5 effort. Livan Hernandez didn't pitch particularly well and there were some misplays in the field, but if you want to find an individual culprit in yesterday's loss, look no further than Young. He absolutely killed this offense. It's the type of performance that would normally get a young hitter benched for a game to straighten things out, but for whatever reason Young has earned the honor of being automatically written in as the left fielder each day, so we know that's not going to happen.

Lineup construction should only get more confusing for Gardenhire after yesterday's news that Adam Everett is headed back to the disabled list. This isn't necessarily bad news, since Everett has been essentially worthless so far this season. If he was playing the type of exceptional defense that gained him a reputation in Houston, he'd be a fairly valuable player on this team despite his awful hitting, because the rest of the infield has been very shaky defensively. Unfortunately, his shoulder problems have prevented him from being anything more than a mediocre defensive shortstop at best, so his value has been negated and he's basically been Juan Castro. I'd like to see Everett come back strong, but whatever is bothering his shoulder does not seem to be going away, so I'm at the point where I've pretty much given up on him being of any use to this team.

Replacing him on the roster will be Matt Macri, who I initially predicted to make the team out of spring training. This selection is interesting for a few reasons. For one thing, there's little chance that Macri will give the team any help defensively; he had committed a team-high eight errors over 29 games in Rochester. Ron Gardenhire is clearly fed up with this team's infield defense, evident in the fact that Brendan Harris has been moved away from second base due to his inability to consistently turn the double play from that position (Harris did turn three double plays from the shortstop position yesterday, so maybe Gardy is on to something). I wonder how Gardenhire will respond if Macri comes up and keeps committing the kind of mistakes that have haunted him in Rochester. As it stands, the inexperienced and clumsy Alexi Casilla would seem to be the best defensive infielder on the roster. It feels odd to say it, but this team really needs to get Nick Punto back.

The other reason Macri's promotion is interesting is because his numbers this year are significantly inferior to Brian Buscher, who has an 896 OPS with six homers and 20 RBI in 35 games for the Red Wings. There's probably not a whole lot of difference between the two defensively (although Macri is more of a natural second baseman, which may have played a role), so my guess is that Macri got the call because he's a right-handed bat who can spell Mike Lamb at third base against southpaws.

Infield defense has been extremely problematic for the Twins this year, and replacing Everett with Macri doesn't help them much in that respect. There could be many more ugly Thursdays to come.

Guest Post: Everett vs. Tolbert

Nick's Note: Good game last night, but I just don't have time write about it, so I'm going to present you with this guest post submitted by frequent reader and occasional contributor Corey Ettinger. I will note that I'm a little skeptical of the numbers he presents, because I think that a) Everett is not nearly the defender he was in Houston anymore, which may be because of age or because of a shoulder ailment; and b) I think Ettinger is probably underrating Tolbert by putting him on Brendan Harris' level defensively. Nevertheless, it's a well-written article, so I'll leave you to formulate your own opinions based on the evidence provided. Thanks Corey!

***

Matt Tolbert is playing out of his mind right now, and if you're the Twins, this is clearly a good thing. His play is even causing a groundswell among the fan base to make him the starter at shortstop and I think this is something that needs to be addressed. In one camp, you have people who like the fact that Tolbert should be a better offensive player over the course of the season. The other camp believes that Adam Everett can save as many or more runs with his glove. Let's break it down:

Name	Lifetime AVG	Lifetime OBP	Lifetime SLG	AVG H	AVG BB	AVG TB	AVG 2B	AVG 3B	AVG HR	Runs Created
Everett	.246	.298	.355	135	30.41	195	25.80	3.54	8.86	55.14
Tolbert	.280	.345	.404	154	46.44	222	29.57	7.70	7.70	74.49

So over the course of a season, Tolbert is good for an additional 19.35 runs. That's pretty significant. If you consider that the Twins averaged 4.43 runs per game last year, that's an additional 4.37 wins that Tolbert bring to the team. Of course, that also presumes that Tolbert can translate those minor-league numbers into major-league numbers. While it is far from impossible for him to do so, I think many would say the odds are against that given the traditional growth rates of players transition from the minor leagues to the major leagues.

Now is where things get a bit tricky and I'm prepared to admit that defensive statistics are not my forte, but using some pretty simple logic-based calculations, I think we can fairly easily translate Everett's effectiveness into a sort of reverse runs created. Let's say, runs prevented. Also, as a caveat to anyone who is interested in really understanding defensive metrics, PLEASE look into buying a copy of The Fielding Bible; its written by some of the greatest minds in sabermetrics and is a MUST for anyone who is interested in understanding precisely how defense impacts a game. Furthermore, even if you aren't going to buy the book, I strongly recommend reading the excerpts posted on their website.

The system they use is called +/-, and essentially, after charting every single ball put in play, they determine based on ball speed, location, vectoring, etc... how many more (or less) balls a player converts into an out than the average. Players who get to balls below the average receive negative ratings. Adam Everett led all shortstops in the major leagues from 2005-2007 with a +92 rating (Jason Bartlett was second with a +45.) While I'd love to use these stats, it's not possible since Matt Tolbert's numbers aren't available. So we need to find another way of doing this. Getting back to setting up our own system...

First, I'll be using The Hardball Times fielding stats. A basic fielding stats primer: ZR= Zone Rating BIZ= Balls in zone. Plays = # of balls in a players zone fielded (Plays/BIZ=UZR) OOZ= Outs made on balls out of a fielders zone. Since shortstops don't really have any effect on triple and homeruns, and only have a very small degree of effect doubles, I'm going to presume that every out that a fielder doesn't make, counts for a single. In order to ensure the closest approximations possible I'm going to use the data available from Everett's past 5 seasons. In Tolbert's case, I only have a sample size of nineteen innings. Clearly this presents a major statistical dilemma, but I can only work with the information available to me.

As a precursor, I'll be using an average total balls in zone for the shortstop position over a 162 game season of 420. That will effect a players AVG Plays as well as thier AVG OOZ plays. Obviously the last shortstop to play 162 games in a season was Miguel Tejada (and before him Cal Ripken Jr) but guys who do are rare. And neither Everett nor Tolbert will do so. But it gives us an important baseline to work from.

Name	AVG BIZ	AVG Plays (420*ZR)	AVG OOZ	Total
Everett	420	369.60 (.880)	77.90	447.50 (448)
Tolbert	420	326.76 (.778)	¹37.00	363.76 (364)

¹: Brendan Harris' 2007, a player I think Tolbert compares well to. I had to make an arbitrary decision since Tolbert has yet to record an out from outside of his zone. Harris created one out of zone out per 20.29 innings last year. Tolbert having played 19 innings and not yet made an OOZ play was the nearest comparison given Tolbert HAVING made an OOZ play.

This shows us that Everett creates 84 more outs over the course of a season than Tolbert. Given that there are 27 outs per game you COULD say that means Everett's glove wins 3.11 more games per year than Tolbert's.

But now we need to plug this into 2007 hitting data. Last year the average major-league hitter batted .268/.336/.422. Over a 550 at-bat season that comes to 147 hits, 185 times on base (H+BB). Therefore, the average batter would've had ~38 BB. A .422 SLG works out to 232 total bases. If Everett prevents 84 more outs per season, that means he prevents 84/9 (9.33) outs (# of additional out/batters = Individual batters share of additional outs created) per batter.

Plugged into the same basic RC formula we used above, this "standard" hitter who had been averaging a RC of 72.99 would now be averaging an RC of 66.75. Now, since Everett's defense is in play over 9 batter over the course of a season, that negative variation of 6.24 becomes multiplied by 9 to equate to 56.16.

Everett has a 56.16 Runs Prevented rating over Matt Tolbert. That would equate to 12.54 wins given the Twins average allowed runs of 4.48 per game.

Of course so much of this is speculative. We don't know if Tolbert can duplicate his minor league numbers and my study of the fielding stats is wildly simplistic. But I think the study is fairly accurate, and I'd be happy to discuss it with anyone who might be interested. The final results show that Tolbert's 4.37 additional wins due to his bat (over Everett's) do not make up for Everett's additional 6.24 wins from his glove over Tolbert's.

Mo-Town Meltdown

With two outs in the bottom of the sixth inning last night, all was well. The Twins were up 5-0, the Tigers were stumbling along as they have throughout much of the season thus far, and it appeared that the hometown nine were on their way to an easy victory to open their series in Detroit.

Then, Gary Sheffield reached first on an infield single to third base. It was no big deal -- a weak infield hit that did nothing to indicate that starter Nick Blackburn was not in control. But Sheffield's single was followed by another from Magglio Ordonez. Then another by Miguel Cabrera. Then a double by Carlos Guillen. Ron Gardenhire pulled Blackburn and inserted Matt Guerrier to stop the bleeding, but it was no use. Edgar Renteria drove an RBI single to right, but took too big a turn at first base on the throw home and ended up being tagged out. Nevertheless, when the inning was over, the Tigers had closed their deficit to one run.

Yet, the Twins struck back in the next inning, scoring four runs of their own to increase the lead back to five at 9-4. Again, the game seemed safe. Unfortunately, the Detroit bats had just begun their awakening ceremony, and they were nowhere near done yet. In the bottom of the seventh, Ivan Rodriguez drove a liner to deep right, and while trying to make a leaping catch, Denard Span had it pop out of his glove and over the wall for a solo homer. It was that kind of night for the Twins. Guerrier got three straight ground-outs to escape the inning, but the worst was yet to come.

In the eighth inning, Guerrier and Pat Neshek combined to surrender six runs on two singles, two doubles and two triples. To say that the Tigers hitters were locked in would be an understatement; it seemed that every pitch was being driven into one of the gaps, and it certainly didn't help that the Twins' inexperienced outfielders repeatedly gave Detroit hitters extra bases by taking bad routes and letting balls roll by them to the wall.

When all was said and one, the Tigers had an 11-9 lead. The Twins, demoralized, were set down by Todd Jones in the ninth, completing the toughest loss of the season so far.

The game marked the second time that Guerrier and Neshek have been absolutely pounded, which is more than a little concerning. In six innings this season, Neshek has allowed five earned runs; he didn't allow his fifth earned run until June 24 last season. I was optimistic that Neshek would bounce back from his rough second half last year after hearing that he'd made improved his health during the offseason and after seeing him dominate in the spring, but thus far he has just looked flat. The same goes for Guerrier, who holds a 9.53 ERA after being charged with four earned runs on eight hits last night over just 1 1/3 innings of work.

Being that Guerrier and Neshek were the team's most reliable relievers outside of Joe Nathan last year, this team could be in serious trouble if these issues aren't temporary. I'm still not at the point of panic with either pitcher, because last night they had the unfortunate task of facing a Tigers lineup that was just exploding. (I said in my post yesterday that I was "a little scared" about seeing the Twins face the battered Tigers, and this is exactly what I was talking about.) Here's hoping the two relievers can get on track, because this team simply not succeed if they cannot be relied on to get outs in close games.

I have one final beef, and it is with Adam Everett (a.k.a. Adam Neverhitt). During the disastrous eighth inning last night, Everett helped out the Tigers by committing an error on a routine ground ball, bouncing a ball in the dirt in front of Justin Morneau and helping to extend and inning which the Tigers had already led off with two straight doubles. Everett has a reputation as a defensive specialist who doesn't hit much, and he's certainly lived up to the latter part of that rep with a .185/.214/.222 hitting line thus far. Yet, the error last night (probably the most painful error I have seen a Twin make this year) was his third in this young season, and he's done little to dazzle me and make me believe his defensive proficiency can offset his utter worthlessness at the plate.

There's been talk that Everett has some shoulder problems, and if that's the case, it's difficult to really hold his fielding issues against him. Yet, if he's got a bad throwing shoulder, the impetus is on Ron Gardenhire to keep him out of the lineup. If he can't field up to the best of his ability, there is absolutely no reason he should be playing. There's plenty of blame to go around in a brutal loss like the one the Twins suffered last night, but putting competent and healthy players on the field in the first place would certainly help prevent big innings like last night's eighth.

Position Analysis: Shortstop

Likely Starter: Adam Everett

2007 Stats: .232/.281/.318, 2 HR, 15 RBI

The odds that Everett made solid contact with this ball are, sadly, not good.

Potential Backups: Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Brendan Harris

Adam Everett has never been much of a hitter, but even by his standards, the numbers he put during an injury-shortened 2007 campaign were pretty brutal. He was hitting just .232 in mid-June when he collided with Houston left fielder Carlos Lee while chasing a pop fly and broke his right leg.

The Twins acquired Everett, a .248/.299/.357 career hitter, as a free agent during the offseason to replace Jason Bartlett, who was sent to Tampa Bay as a part of the package that brought in Delmon Young. Everett has been one of the league's worst regular hitters over the past several seasons, and there is little reason to believe it's going to get any better with a change of scenery. Houston's ballpark, with its short left-field porch, is notoriously friendly to right-handed hitters and probably helped him attain his modest power (he averaged about eight homers per season in the four seasons prior to 2007). With the switch to a bigger park, Everett might lose some of that power, which is really his only offensive value. He doesn't hit for average, he doesn't take walks and he's not particularly speedy (he did swipe a career-high 21 bags in 2005, but he's 31 and coming off a leg injury).

What might surprise you is that Everett's career OPS, .656, is actually identical to the OPS the Twins got from their shortstop position last year. That's not to say that Everett is as good of a hitter as Bartlett -- he's not; Bartlett got off to a slow start last year and the team's overall SS stats were dragged down considerably by Nick Punto's utterly awful .136/.211/.160 line at the position. But the fact of the matter is that as long as he can hit somewhere close to his career average (which is far from a given), Everett won't provide a major offensive downgrade at shortstop. What he will almost certainly do is provide a major defensive upgrade.

The reason Everett has stuck around for so long, and the reason he was able to score a $2.8 million one-year deal from the Twins during the offseason, is that he is an absolute stud defensively. While he has never won a Gold Glove (just another mark against the award's legitimacy), nearly every defensive metric rates Everett as one of the best defensive players in all of baseball over the past five years. There may be some reason for concern that Everett's range will be reduced as a result of his '07 injury, but he's a steady shortstop who makes all the plays.

If Everett gets hurt or if his offensive contributions are unbearably bad, Nick Punto can step in and would probably provide a slight offensive upgrade and a slight defensive downgrade. I'll be more interested to see how Alexi Casilla does in Triple-A and whether he makes an appearance at the position. Casilla had a rough season in 2007, but he's still got a lot of talent and I still believe this team views him as their future shortstop.

Everett is going to be a hole in the lineup, and it's unlikely that even the most stellar defense will be able to fully offset the horrendous offensive numbers he is likely to produce, but one can't underestimate the value of a top-notch defender at a position as crucially important as shortstop.

Predicted 2008 Hitting Line for Everett: .240/.290/.345, 5 HR, 40 RBI

Everett's D Has Its Day

The Twins entered this offseason with several holes needing to be filled. They opened another hole when they traded starting shortstop Jason Bartlett as part of a package to acquire Delmon Young, and yesterday they seemingly filled that hole by signing Adam Everett.

The Twins inked Everett, who had been non-tendered by the Astros just a day after a 5-for-1 swap sent Miguel Tejada to Houston, to a one-year deal worth $2.8 million (with an additional $200K possible in incentives). Everett seemingly serves as a stopgap until a guy like Alexi Casilla, Trevor Plouffe or Alejandro Machado is ready to take over the position. The contract is reasonable and it doesn't carry much risk. But is it a good signing?

The Twins came into this offseason badly needing to improve an offense that was one of the league's worst in 2007. As such, bringing in a player who has been one of baseball's worst regular hitters for the past several years seems like a major step in the wrong direction. In the past season, Everett batted .232/.281/.318, which is Nick Punto territory. What's worse is that there isn't much potential for Everett to produce any more than that. Throughout his career, his numbers have always been very consistent with his overall hitting line of .248/.299/.357, which is what you'd expect from a guy who hit .258/.346/.368 in the minor leagues. Everett's career high for on-base percentage is .320; for slugging percentage, .385. On top of all that, he'll turn 31 in February, so he's no spring chicken.

But here's what makes Everett a major-league player: his defense. He's a phenomenal defensive shortstop -- the best, according to many knowledgeable baseball analysts and players. Defense is important -- as Ubelmann notes, perhaps to an underrated degree. This is especially true at shortstop, which is perhaps the second-most important position on the field behind catcher. When he's at his best, Everett can save runs with his glove and help a team's pitching staff tremendously.

But this brings two questions into focus. First, will Everett be at his best? He missed much of the 2007 season after breaking his leg in June, and there's no telling how that will affect his mobility. If Everett loses even a step, his value diminishes greatly. The other question is how helpful he will be to this Twins team -- specifically, how much more helpful will he be in the field than a player like Casilla or Punto who is likely to put up better numbers offensively? With Carlos Silva departing, the Twins don't project to have a very groundball-heavy pitching staff; it is also possible that Everett's range will be less effective on artificial turf than it was on natural grass.

At this point in time, I don't like this signing. Everett is the type of player that can be valuable in the right situation, but I'm not really sure the Twins are a team that can afford the luxury of a superb defensive shortstop who can't hit worth a lick. If Bill Smith manages to fill each of the team's other holes with legitimate hitters, my mind could change; however, that seems somewhat unlikely at this point.

Update: Twins Sign Everett

According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, the Twins have signed shortstop Adam Everett to a one-year contract. Everett became expendable to the Astros when they decided to trade for Miguel Tejada.

Step one to upgrading an anemic offense: sign a player with a .248/.299/.357 career hitting line to become your starting shortstop. Check.