Incremental Upgrades

The Twins got their offseason roster renovations underway last week by outrighting Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert, Rene Rivera and Anthony Slama. This created four openings on the 40-man roster, though two of those spots are now filled by Nick Blackburn and Alexi Casilla, who were reinstated from the 60-day disabled list.

Repko and Tolbert were both set to be arbitration eligible this offseason, so this decision confirms what many already believed: that the Twins had no interest in employing those players next year at more than the league minimum.

Repko was a fifth outfielder and Tolbert was a utility infielder. Neither held a particularly significant role for the club. Still, both were exceptionally awful hitters in 2011, even by the low standards that accompanied their titles. Among all MLB players who made 200 or more plate appearances, Tolbert's .518 OPS was sixth-worst. Meanwhile, Repko's .555 mark fell nearly 100 points below his already poor career mark.

Replacing these two with more competent options would qualify as "incremental upgrades." It's a term I first used a couple weeks ago when talking about bringing back Nick Punto as a bench player, and you're likely to hear it often from me over the course of the offseason. Given their circumstances, the Twins shouldn't be looking to land one or two superstars; rather, they should be seeking to trim fat from the roster and build better depth across the board.

Prioritizing Offseason Needs

Yesterday I wrote that the depleted Twins could stand to upgrade their roster across the board during the offseason. It's probably not realistic to expect impact players to be added at every position, though, so today we'll prioritize the team's needs. Where are external additions mandatory, as opposed to optional luxuries? Let's assess the roster from top to bottom, starting with the most urgent area of need, and you can draw the line:

1. Shortstop

It could be argued that the shortstop is the most important player on the diamond. He is the captain of your infield, and the recipient of a very high volume of fielding chances -- often carrying a considerable degree of difficulty. The Twins were extremely weak at shortstop this season, with a .238/.292/.320 hitting line that came attached to very poor defense. It is simply unacceptable to enter the 2012 campaign with Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Trevor Plouffe as the sole options there.

2. Catcher

When healthy, Joe Mauer is obviously one of the league's elite catchers, but he wasn't healthy this year and as result the Twins got a .185 batting average from the position. Mauer's health is in flux and it's not at all clear he'll be able to crouch behind the plate for the majority of the team's games next season. To plan for that outcome, they absolutely must carry better backups than Drew Butera and Rene Rivera, who don't belong in the major leagues.

3. Relief Pitcher

The bullpen wasn't a crippling flaw in the team's 2011 roster composition only because the Twins so rarely had leads to protect. Make no mistake, this group was painfully bad. Minnesota relievers ranked dead last in the majors in ERA, opponents' batting average and K/BB ratio. Worse yet, Joe Nathan and Matt Capps are eligible for free agency, leaving Glen Perkins as the sole trustworthy holdover. The Twins might be able to cull a couple decent performers out of their collection of marginal relief arms, but they'll need to hit the trade market or free agency and add some reliable back-end relievers if they have eyes on contending in 2012.

4. Starting Pitcher

The Twins really need to supplement their rotation during the offseason, but the fact that this position ranks fourth tells you just how dire their needs are at the first three spots. The Twins do have some options on the existing roster, as they still control all the guys that they brought into this 2011 season when the rotation was largely considered a strength. The problem is that nearly every player at the position is afflicted by injury concerns, and the staff's pitch-to-contact tendencies don't play nearly as well with a sub par defense.

5. Outfield

Rather than breaking down the outfield position-by-position, we'll just say that the Twins could use some help out there in general, since it's not clear at this point how things are going to shake out. Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are both eligible for free agency, and if neither returns we would be looking at a Ben Revere/Denard Span/Joe Benson (or possibly Trevor Plouffe?) starting alignment. While that would be a stout defensive group, they'd be dreadfully low on power and very questionable offensively overall. Only if the Twins are in full rebuilding mode could they responsibly move forward with such a plan.

6. First Base

Coaches have already openly talked about moving Justin Morneau to DH in order to preserve his health, a move that would leave some big shoes to fill at first. Chris Parmelee made a strong impression in September, but his pedestrian minor-league track record suggests that he would struggle if pressed into full-time duty. Outside of him, there just isn't anyone in the organization with enough bat to step in as the regular first baseman next year. Unless it's Mauer.

7. Second Base

Alexi Casilla figures to return next year and while his .252/.310/.337 career hitting line isn't particularly exciting, he did enough this year to justify another shot. He has always proven susceptible to prolonged slumps and has never reached the 100-game mark in a season, so adding some depth ought to be a focus unless the Twins feel comfortable with Luke Hughes or Brian Dinkelman as their principle insurance plans.

8. Designated Hitter

It's not clear whether Kubel will be back next year, but with the uncertainty surrounding Morneau and Mauer, it seems likely that at least one of them will put in significant time as the team's DH next year. If they're both able to stick in the field (a good problem to have), the Twins will be tasked with finding a no-glove guy who can hit a little bit, which seems like a relatively minor obstacle given the rest of their headaches.

9. Third Base

Ron Gardenhire might consider this a higher priority, since he wasn't too shy about voicing his frustration with Danny Valencia over the course of the summer. Still, the sophomore led the team in games played and his offensive drop-off was completely attributable to a BABIP plummet, as his peripherals remained largely intact. He's nothing special -- particularly when you account for his iffy glove -- but considering his price tag and health, Valencia should be safe.

Power Infusion

In 89 games this year, the Twins have hit 54 home runs. Among AL teams, only the Athletics, with 50, have hit fewer. Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays has hit 31 on his own.

If they maintain their pace through the rest of the season, the Twins won't even reach 100 home runs as a team; it would be their first time failing to reach triple-digits in a full season since 1980. No team has made the playoffs while hitting fewer than 100 homers since the '88 Dodgers (who, ironically, would see Kirk Gibson hit one of the most famous home runs of all time in the World Series).

Fortunately, there are a number of reasons to believe that the Twins will beat their current 98-homer projection handily. Two of those reasons just rejoined the roster after Sunday's game.

When the All-Star break ends, the Twins will be carrying Delmon Young -- returning from a sprained ankle -- and Trevor Plouffe -- returning after terrorizing Triple-A for several weeks -- in place of Rene Tosoni and Rene Rivera.

Young had hit only two home runs in 217 plate appearances when he landed on the disabled list after an awkward collision with the outfield wall in Milwaukee, but he blasted 21 last year and is known as a player whose bat picks up as the season goes on.

His abysmal production this year after seemingly beginning to realize his immense power potential in 2010 has been baffling, but something clearly hasn't been right with the left fielder. Whatever it is, hopefully it was remedied along with his ankle during this latest DL stint. Young did homer twice during a nine-game rehab assignment in Ft. Myers, which is a good sign.

Meanwhile, Plouffe leads the organization in home runs by a wide margin this year with 18.  Michael Cuddyer, who is pacing the Twins in gopher balls and appeared in last night's All Star Game, has hit 13.

Plouffe has already rocketed past his previous career-best homer total of 15, which he set last year. Granted, he's been spending his fourth season in Triple-A, so it's not clear how much stock can be put into this shocking power outburst, but the former first-round pick did go deep three times while posting an impressive ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .183 in 18 games with the Twins back in May.

There are no guarantees with either of these players, but if Young can turn things around and Plouffe can just continue to do what he's been doing, they will add a serious infusion of power to this roster, which would go a long way toward bettering the Twins' slim postseason odds.

Padres Claim Neshek

Rarely has there been a player easier for Twins fans to like than Pat Neshek. The Brooklyn Park, MN native was drafted out of Butler University by his hometown team in the sixth round in 2002. He possesses a well established level of humility and a reputation as a player whose interaction with the fans is unrivaled.

These are all traits that have worked in Neshek's favor, but I think his most endearing characteristic is his uniqueness. Never before have we seen a delivery quite like his, and when he arrived on the major-league scene in 2006 none of us knew quite what to make of it. Neither did big-league hitters, apparently, as Neshek flat-out dominated, debuting in July and posting a 2.19 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and astounding 53-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 37 innings despite working with a fastball that barely edged 90 mph.

For the first half of the next season, Neshek continued to baffle AL hitters with his quirky arm action, delivering pitches from a side-arm slot and following through by hopping toward home plate on his toes (a style he'd adapted after suffering an arm injury in high school).

From his MLB debut on July 7, 2006 through July 7, 2007, Neshek accumulated one full season of pure relief dominance, hurling 79 innings with a 1.94 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 104-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It doesn't get much better than that, and it was startling to see from Neshek, a likable hometown kid who lacked the bulldog mentality, standout velocity or gravity-bending stuff that typifies elite late-inning relievers.

Unfortunately, whatever magic the right-hander was employing for that first year quickly dissipated. Neshek faded in the second half of the '07 season and has never really recaptured his electricity. Since the one-year anniversary of his first outing in the bigs, Neshek has a 4.79 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 47-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 50 2/3 innings.

As spectacular as he was that first year, Neshek walked a fine line with his lack of overpowering stuff and his reliance on a unique release. Eventually, the novelty of his delivery would wear off and big-league hitters would start to adapt; moreover, he needed every last tick of velocity for his approach to work and since suffering a torn ligament in 2008 that required Tommy John surgery, that consistent 90-mph heat simply hasn't been there.

As someone who greatly admires Neshek as a person and loves watching him pitch when he's on top of his game, I was fiercely hoping to see shades of his spellbinding rookie form this spring. Unfortunately, when I had the opportunity to watch him pitch an inning in Ft. Myers, I just didn't see it. His velocity remained stuck in the mid-80s; his once frisbee-like slider continued to lack its previous bite.

Apparently the Twins saw the same thing as they watched Neshek pitch this spring. They placed the righty on waivers on Friday, and this afternoon he was claimed by the Padres. Considering the Twins' huge questions in the bullpen and Neshek's minimal $625,000 salary this year, the move says a lot about the organization's feelings about the side-armer. If they don't make a move to fill his open spot on the 40-man roster (Bill Smith said in the article linked above that it could remain open for "two weeks or six months"), waiving Neshek would really signal a complete and total lack of confidence.

I'll miss Neshek, but it's important to note that despite his amazing performance in the year after he made his major-league debut, he simply hasn't been the same pitcher since. I hope he can resurrect his career in the National League, where fewer hitters have been exposed to his delivery and he'll move further and further away from surgery, but for the time being I'm going to have to trust the front office's evaluation that Neshek was not ready to contribute as a quality member of the Twins' bullpen this season.

The question is, where are those guys going to come from? Neshek, one of the players Bill Smith labeled a "wild card" for a rebuilt bullpen during the offseason, is now gone, and a number of other relief candidates have failed to impress this spring.

While I can't find it in myself to criticize the Twins' brass over letting go of a 30-year-old pitcher who hasn't gotten results in the majors for over three years, Neshek's release does nothing to alleviate my concerns about an increasingly dire bullpen situation that seems to have been completely ignored during the offseason.

Bottom Flores

When Jose Mijares went down a couple weeks ago with a bit of a freak injury -- he tore the meniscus in his knee while stepping on first base to record an out -- the Twins were placed in a bit of a bind. It left them with only one left-handed option in the bullpen, in the person of 39-year-old journeyman Ron Mahay.

When Mahay suffered his own freak injury over the weekend, a season-ending rotator cuff tear sustained while the veteran stumbled off the mound to field a ground ball, the Twins were placed in an even more precarious position. The only remaining lefty in the bullpen was Glen Perkins, who -- as I mentioned a couple weeks ago -- isn't a remotely appealing option against left-handed hitters.

So it figured that Bill Smith would be busy scavenging the waiver wire for a stop gap option to suppress tough lefties as the Twins wait for Mijares' return from the disabled list, which should come in mid-September. Unfortunately, at this stage of the season, the cupboard tends to be a bit bare, so all the Twins could come up with was Randy Flores, a 35-year-old left-hander who had been pitching out of the Rockies bullpen up to this point.

One might take a quick glance at Flores' 2.96 ERA or notice that he's held lefty hitters to a .220 batting average this year and see this as a quality addition to the bullpen. That optimism is likely to fade when one takes a closer look and sees that his average versus lefties is being held down by an unsustainably low .216 BABIP, that lefties are slugging .460 against him despite the low average, that he holds an ugly 18-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 27 1/3 innings, and that in the past four seasons he has accumulated a 4.96 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP.

Flores isn't very good, and his strong results this year are pretty clearly the result of good fortune. Lately, it seems his luck has been catching up with him, as opponents have run up a 1.068 OPS against him in six August appearances.

With that being said, the Twins weren't going to move forward without a left-handed option in the bullpen and Flores is clearly a better fit than Perkins. While it's hard to envision Flores as a particularly effective top lefty specialist, he'll only be serving as an interim fill-in until Mijares (hopefully) returns for the final stretch run and postseason.

In the meantime, the Twins will make do with Flores in most LOOGY situations, though Ron Gardenhire would be wise to turn to someone like Jesse Crain in extremely high leverage situations, regardless of what side the batter is swinging from.

Upcoming Roster Decisions

Prior to Tuesday's Jim Thome signing, this might have been a good guess at how the Twins' 25-man roster will break down coming out of spring training this year: five starters, seven relievers, nine starting position players, four bench players. That's how Ron Gardenhire rolled out of spring training last year, and considering his professed affinity for a deep bullpen, it's how we imagine he'd have liked to roll again this year.

Yet, the addition of Thome changes the game a bit. For as much as I like the move, there's no denying that Thome offers extremely limited flexibility as a bench player. He truly can't play in the field (he's started a total of four games at first base over the past four years) and he's one of the slowest runners in baseball. Thome's utility will purely be as a hitter, which means that Gardenhire is going to have to strategize around him at times, using replacement fielders and pinch runners at a high rate.

This might force the Twins to go with a five-man bench and a six-man bullpen. That'd be less than ideal, since it would leave the Twins without much in the way of a mop-up man or long reliever. Of the six guys who can be considered locks for bullpen spots, only Clay Condrey could be viewed as a candidate for that role, and he's pretty borderline given his history.

Originally, the plan for the Twins was seemingly to place the one of the odd men out of the race for the fifth spot in the rotation -- which appears to be shaping up between Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins -- in that last bullpen spot as a guy who could come in and throw several innings should a starter's day end early. This takes away that option. If they want to have that starter-built pitcher in the bullpen to soak up innings, either the Twins will deal one of their current short-outing relievers (which still strikes me as a fairly strong possibility) or they will go with a four-man bench.

Let's explore that latter option. A four-man bench would almost certainly consist of Thome, a back-up infielder, a back-up outfielder and a back-up catcher. Presuming that Brendan Harris is the starter at third base, this leaves the infield spot up for grabs between Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla, both of whom are out of options. There's no clear candidate for the fourth outfielder spot, but since it would have to be someone who can man center, Jason Pridie stands out as the only suitable internal candidate at this point. Meanwhile, the second catcher job would go to either Drew Butera or Jose Morales -- likely Butera at the start of the season due to Morales' recent surgery.

As you can see here, some decisions will have to be made in the near future to whittle the roster down to 25. With both Casilla and Tolbert out of options, one of those guys is almost certainly going to have to go should the Twins opt for a seven-man bullpen. If the Twins sign another player to start at second or third, the roster crunch becomes all the more tricky, which is another reason I doubt we'll see another signing to shore up the infield. If the Twins decide to go forward with a six-man bullpen, I have to imagine we'd be seeing some sort of move to change the reliever alignment, because I can't see anyone of the Nathan/Guerrier/Rauch/Mijares/Crain group being stretched out to pitch long outings and it would be very uncharacteristic of the Twins to carry only one pitcher who can serve in long relief (not to mention only one lefty reliever). This is the main reason I didn't expect Crain to be tendered a contract -- he's a one-inning righty set-up guy, but not quite as reliable as Guerrier or Rauch (or a healthy Neshek for that matter). I think Crain is a nice pitcher and I'm optimistic about his chances for this year, but he'll be occupying a valuable roster spot and sucking up $2 million of payroll.

So, might Crain or another reliever be moved? Will the Twins seek to trade Casilla or Tolbert so one of them isn't lost for nothing this spring? And what about Perkins? Is the team still looking to deal him, as they reported were earlier this offseason?

These are questions to keep in mind as we move forward with only three weeks left before pitchers and catchers report.

Not Always Such Sweet Sorrow

When Bill Smith took over as Twins' GM back in 2007, he wasted no time in completing his first roster purge, removing Josh Rabe, Luis Rodriguez, Lew Ford and Tommy Watkins from the 40-man roster just weeks after the regular season came to an end. I lauded the move at the time, noting that Smith was immediately "trimming the fat" and creating space on the roster for more useful players. Terry Ryan had a tendency during his years as GM to allow marginal players to occupy valuable roster spots for entirely too long, so this initial move by Smith seemed to bode well.

Indeed, Smith has subsequently shown a willingness to part with players, even if doing so reflects poorly on his earlier judgment. This was displayed perhaps most prominently when the Twins cut the disappointing Mike Lamb midway through the 2008 season despite having him signed through '09, forcing the club to eat millions in remaining salary. This offseason, we've already seen the organization part ways with Philip Humber and R.A. Dickey, and yesterday the team outrighted Brian Buscher from the 40-man roster.

It's no secret that I've always had a soft spot for Buscher; I certainly think he can serve a purpose if used correctly and I wouldn't have minded him as the left-handed side of a third-base platoon this past year. He's a patient hitter who makes good contact and often provides quality at-bats off the bench. Yet, he's not a strong defender at third base, doesn't have the speed to pinch-run and can't hit left-handed pitching. There's no denying that there are much better uses for a roster spot than a player with a skill-set as limited as Buscher's. There's a chance he could remain with the organization, but I suspect he'll look to get a fresh start elsewhere and I wish him the best if that's the path he chooses.

The goal now, as always, is finding a superior player to fill Buscher's spot on the 40-man roster. There was some thought yesterday that the Buscher move would serve as the prelude to an acquisition of Akinori Iwamura, who sources in Tampa Bay had reported was on the verge of being traded. Midway through the afternoon, though, it was revealed that Iwamura was headed to the Pirates. That scratches one high-ranking option off our list of potential upgrades at second base for the coming season.

In any case, Buscher's departure leaves an open spot on the 40-man roster, and a few more could open up in the near future depending one what happens with impending free agents Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Mike Redmond, Ron Mahay and Carl Pavano, not to mention others like Buscher who are candidates to be outrighted.

Going For Grudz

The Twins made a move aimed at addressing one of their biggest holes this weekend, inking Mark Grudzielanek to a minor-league contract with the apparent plan of plugging him in at second base if Alexi Casilla continues to struggle.

The move was interesting and unexpected, to say the least. With rumors floating around about various trade candidates who might interest the Twins, Bill Smith has elected to sign a 39-year-old free agent who hasn't played this season.

Grudzielanek hasn't, in fact, played in a game since August 1 of last year. He spent last season with the Royals and missed the final two months with an ankle injury, subsequently drawing little interest in free agency. This led many to believe he was done playing, so to see his name pop up as an acquisition for the Twins around the trade deadline is a huge surprise.

This isn't necessarily a bad move. Despite his age, Grudz has remained a productive hitter over the past several seasons. He hasn't posted a batting average lower than .294 since 2002. He bats from the right side. He's got decent power and has generally been good for 30 doubles and a few homers each year. Defensively, he's very solid and has graded out better than average basically every season that he's been in the league. If the Twins are getting the same Mark Grudzielanek from the past five years, they're getting a significant upgrade at second base.

Of course, whether they're actually getting that player remains to be seen and is far from a lock. At this point, there's really no way to know what kind of shape Grudzielanek is in after being away from the game for a full 12 months. And while he has maintained solid production over the past several years, a player in his mid to late 30s can drop off a cliff at any time (just ask Rondell White and Bret Boone).

With 1,772 games of major-league experience, it's possible that the 14-year veteran could jump right back in and acclimate himself quickly. The Twins will need him to do just that, because with only 70 games remaining and a two-game deficit in the standings, they don't have much time to be patient. This is a low-risk, medium-reward type of signing and many fans will no doubt be disappointed that this move very likely precludes any type of major trade being swung, but if the Twins have done their homework and are confident that he's in game shape, Grudz is definitely capable of shoring up the second base position over the final two months of the season.

Rebuilding From Within

It's no secret that the two clearest weaknesses on this club as we approach the trade deadline are second base and relief pitching. While the bullpen has looked decent as of late and hasn't posted staggeringly bad numbers, I don't think anyone feels comfortable with the current group being relied on to protect small leads down the stretch. Meanwhile, second base has been an undeniable disaster zone.

For the time being, it seems that Bill Smith and the Twins are content to try and address these problems internally. Farmhands Bobby Keppel and Brian Duensing were recently added to the big-league bullpen, and most recently Kevin Mulvey was called up to chip in as a reliever. Meanwhile, Alexi Casilla was called up just prior to the All-Star break to take his third stab at seizing the starting second base job. It's good to see the Twins showing a somewhat proactive approach when it comes to these problematic areas. Unfortunately, none of these players are likely to provide substantive upgrades.

I was actually fairly pleased when the Twins released Luis Ayala and called up Keppel to fill his spot, as I viewed Keppel as a ground-ball reliever who -- unlike Ayala -- had actually proven capable of inducing ground balls this year. So far, Keppel has lived up to that role, overcoming his mediocre stuff by consistently keeping the ball down in the zone and inducing an excellent GB rate of 64.9 percent, which has led to a 0.73 ERA in 12 1/3 innings of work. Keppel is almost certainly pitching over his head and by no means do I expect him to maintain this type of performance, but he's a definite upgrade over Ayala and I'm sure Rick Anderson and Ron Gardenhire are both very happy with the way he's been pitching.

Duensing, on the other hand, has struggled. He's allowed seven runs on 10 hits over 11 2/3 innings while tallying more walks (five) than strikeouts (four). He's not a bad pitcher, but he's not a difference-maker in the bullpen and is really best suited for mop-up duty at this point. The same is likely to be true for Mulvey, a 24-year-old right-hander who came over in the Johan Santana trade and will be making his major-league debut whenever he enters a game for the Twins. Mulvey, who ranked sixth on my preseason Top Ten Twins Prospects List (http://www.nickstwinsblog.com/2009/01/my-top-ten-prospects.html), has posted decent numbers in Triple-A, but he's been inconsistent and susceptible to rough outings. With a 3.93 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 81-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio, Mulvey has been downright average in Rochester, which makes him unlikely to have a seriously positive impact with the Twins.

Casilla, who has hit .180/.242/.225 while playing shoddy defense over his first two stints with the Twins this season, has ignited some hope that he'll be able to recapture his spark from last year thanks to a very good 827 OPS in Triple-A (that includes a 919 OPS this month). The problem is that his strong numbers are propped up by a .340 batting average. If Casilla can overcome his tendencies to swing at balls out of the zone and send every ball he hits either straight down into the ground or straight up into the air, he might be able to post a .300 average which would lead to solid overall numbers. Unfortunately, Casilla treads a dangerous line with his inability to draw walks or hit for any power, so if he hits even .250 (which would represent a major improvement over his performance earlier this year), we're still looking at some substandard production.

It's unclear whether the Twins have called up all these players because they actually view them as potential solutions or with the intention of showcasing them for possible trades within the next few weeks. I'm pretty skeptical of the latter possibility -- even if these guys succeed over a period of two weeks I can't imagine that the Twins braintrust really believes it's going to meaningfully ramp up their value in the eyes of other GMs. Instead, my guess is that that the Twins want to see if they can get any kind of subsantive upgrades to the areas that have emerged as weaknesses without having to look outside the organization.

That's not a bad idea -- acquiring relievers or middle infielders within the next couple weeks is going to be costly -- but I just don't really see these guys as answers. If the Twins want to try and catch lightning in a bottle with an internal candidate, they'd be better off looking at Steven Tolleson, whose skills seem more transferrable to the big leagues than Casilla's at this stage. And if they want to give the bullpen a jolt without overspending on another team's reliever, they'll probably have to wait on someone like Jesse Crain, Juan Morillo, Rob Delaney or Anthony Slama. Converted mediocre Triple-A starters like Duensing and Mulvey simply aren't likely to upgrade the unit as needed.

Down Goes Casilla

I've gotten the sense that people have grown tired of me writing so much about Alexi Casilla's struggles lately. Good news: you won't have to anymore, at least not for a while. That's because the Twins yesterday demoted Casilla to Triple-A Rochester and recalled Matt Tolbert to take his place on the roster. Thus, one of my preseason predictions comes true far earlier than even I expected.

It's the right move. Casilla has been absolutely disastrous at the plate this year, and recently his play in the field has taken a turn for the worse. He has been taking terrible at-bats, failing to run out ground balls and making inexcusable mental mistakes while on defense. And while keeping him in the second spot in the batting order regularly was ostensibly supposed to boost his confidence and get him back on track, his play has only deteriorated and his confidence seemed to be sloping downward. Quite simply, there is no way to justify keeping him as a regular in the lineup at this point, especially in the two-hole.

This might come as a shock to some, but I actually like Casilla. I don't think he's a very good ballplayer at this point, but he strikes me as a friendly, happy and easy-going guy. When I followed the team to Kansas City for a road trip back in 2007, I saw Casilla along with a couple other players strolling through the downtown strip at night after completing a day game. While the rest of the players in the group, which included Carlos Silva and Luis Castillo, seemed grumpy and unapproachable, Casilla had a big smile on his face and stepped with a giddy stride as he made his way through the crowded storefront. I truly want him to succeed and hope he can straighten things out in Rochester, but that doesn't change the fact that he was doing nothing to help the Twins at this point.

The logical choice to replace Casilla as regular second baseman is Brendan Harris, who has swung the bat very well this season and would give the lineup a much-needed jolt against left-handed pitching. However, Ron Gardenhire seems to have some sort of vendetta against Harris. In spite of Harris' outstanding showing in spring training, the manager reportedly didn't want to bring the infielder north, and Harris has received only meager playing time up to this point even though he's batted .308 while Casilla has struggled. I realize that there are questions about Harris' defense and his ability to turn a double play at second base, but I believe these are overstated. The most reliable defensive metrics show that Harris' range at second has been only slightly below average over the past couple seasons, and the fact that he's a bit slow on turning the twin killing is not nearly the big deal that some make it out to be.

Nevertheless, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tolbert get a solid chunk of playing time at second base in Casilla's absence. Tolbert has hit just .260/.324/.375 in Triple-A thus far, but his bat has heated up lately (.356 average over his last 10 games), which likely earned him the call-up. In the long run, he's likely to be a replacement level bat at the major-league level, but given his solid defensive capabilities he'd probably be serviceable as a short-term option at second base. Still, I think the Twins would be better served using him as a utility man -- moving him around the infield and getting him into the lineup two or three times per week. If Gardenhire's distaste for Harris wins out and Tolbert does take over as the regular second baseman, he certainly shouldn't be hitting second in the lineup, as he did in last night's rain-shortened game. It will be interesting to see how Gardy handles that situation.

The Twins came into this season counting on Casilla to be a key part of their lineup. Now, just one month into the season, he's out of the lineup and off the major-league roster. I think it was a mistake not to have any sort of real backup plan in place considering Casilla's erratic history as a player, but alas, the Twins will have to fall back on Harris and Tolbert and hope that one of the two can step up and provide a meaningful improvement at second base.

"And Here We Go..."

... To quote a memorably delivered line from the Joker, Heath Ledger's brilliantly portrayed character from the recent Batman flick. It seems Major League Baseball had their own cruel joke in mind when designing the Twins' 2008 schedule.

By defeating the A's 3-1 yesterday afternoon, the Twins polished off another series victory at the Metrodome. Their play at home has been nothing short of sterling, as they've won 30 of their past 39 games there and haven't lost a series in the Dome since the first week of June. The Twins continue to look much sharper at home than on the road, and that is going to make the upcoming 30-game stretch crucial.

The White Sox once against defeated the pathetic Mariners yesterday to maintain a one-game lead in the AL Central. Now the Twins embark on a 14-game road trip which will kick off in Los Angeles tonight. After finishing up that tough stretch, the Twins will return home for six games before hitting the road for 10 more. That's 24 away games compared to six home games over the next month. Oh, and they'll get only two days off during that entire span. It's hardly an exaggeration to say that this stretch could easily make or break the Twins' 2008 season.

On the surface, this doesn't bode well. The Twins have played a lot of sloppy baseball on the road. And, certainly, they'll have a tough task right out of the gate with the road-trip-opening four-game set against the Angels, who happen to own the best record in baseball. But the Twins do have a number of things working in their favor as they set forth on this critical trip.

For one thing, they have momentum. They've won six of their last seven and are 12-6 overall in the month of August. This consistent winning has come about largely thanks to some strong hitting -- they've averaged 5.8 runs per game this month and have failed to score at least four in only three of their 18 games. They have also gotten some pretty good starting pitching lately, but of course that will be put to the test as they venture into hostile ballparks. Perhaps the most intriguing performer to follow will be Francisco Liriano. He picked up his fourth consecutive win yesterday while once again allowing zero earned runs, but he wasn't exactly sharp. He had trouble finding the strike zone, as he often has this year, and got as many outs in the air as on the ground, reversing an encouraging trend I hoped he'd started with his previous outing. If he can get locked in and start showing better command, he can be a crucial weapon for the Twins during this difficult stretch.

Of course, the Twins' biggest weakness this year has been their bullpen and it has been especially vulnerable on the road. But, things seem to be headed in the right direction in that area as well. Boof Bonser seems to be settling in, with a 2.79 ERA in his past seven appearances. He's proven himself to be a clearly better option than Brian Bass, and there was really never much utility in having both pitchers on the roster, so it made sense when the Twins demoted Bass to the minors yesterday to make room for Alexi Casilla. It had become quite clear that Bass had lost favor with his manager, as he'd found his way into only five of the team's 18 August games after making 12 appearances in June and 10 in July.

Taking away a reliever from an already depleted bullpen in order to create a logjam in the middle infield does seem a bit puzzling, and I was a bit surprised that Adam Everett was not the odd man out. My guess it that the Twins are waiting to see how Casilla's thumb reacts to everyday play, and that if he's able to handle everything, Everett will be let go shortly to make room for Matt Tolbert, who is expected back on September 1.

Even with the roster adjustments that have already taken place and the ones that are expected over the next couple weeks, it will be up to the current core players to carry the team through this tough stretch. And make no mistake, will be a tough one. But, to stick with the Dark Knight theme and quote Aaron Eckart's Harvey Dent, "the night is always darkest before the dawn." After finishing up this brutal string of 30 games, the Twins will return home to finish up their season with three-game series against the White Sox and Royals.

Let's hope that those games are meaningful, and that the Twins are in position to vanquish their divisional nemesis and take a shot at putting together their own blockbuster sequel in October.

Catching Up

Alright, there is just so much going on right now that I'm going to have to push back the Position Analyses for Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher until tomorrow and Thursday. I've been very removed from things lately, as I spent last week soaking in the sun down in Orlando (I actually wrote all of last week's Position Analysis pieces the week before; if no one noticed then I guess I did a decent job!), so there are a few things I'd like to delve into.

The biggest news, of course, is the Twins' signing of closer Joe Nathan to a four-year extension that will keep him in Minnesota until at least 2011, with an option for 2012. Between 2008 and 2011, Nathan will make $47 million, or an average of $11.25 million per year. Considering the type of money that Mariano Rivera and Francisco Cordero have gotten lately, Nathan's deal seems like a decent bargain; and most importantly, the contract includes only a limited no-trade clause (Nathan can select three teams to which the club cannot trade him), so if push comes to shove he can remain a valuable trading piece down the line.

Many people are grumbling about this deal, reasoning that Nathan is less valuable than players like Torii Hunter and Johan Santana who were let go during the offseason and that closers in general are overrated and not deserving of this type of money. I tend to find both of these lines of reasoning rather dubious. The Twins could not have reasonably afforded to pay Hunter or Santana the huge money they were seeking so there's no way this can be viewed as an either/or situation; and, while the closer position itself (mostly just the save statistic) might be overrated, dominant relievers who pitch extremely well in high-leverage situations are not. I'm of the belief that the Twins needed to retain Nathan in order to maintain a strong and reasonably deep bullpen, because with Eduardo Morlan out of the picture, this organization does not have much in the pipeline when it comes to power bullpen arms.

Aside from locking up Nathan, the Twins also made an official decision on their center field situation yesterday by cutting Denard Span and Jason Pridie from the big-league camp. Indeed, as I have long anticipated, Carlos Gomez will open the season manning center for the Twins. This is certainly something I'm supportive of, in part because I think Gomez has the tools and attitude to be able to learn and develop in the big leagues, and in part because as a fan I'd simply much prefer watching him than Span.

The Twins also cut Philip Humber and Brian Buscher yesterday, indicating that Matt Tolbert will make the club as a utility infielder (okay...?) and that Nick Blackburn and Brian Bass will hang on, one as a long reliever and one as a starter. The team has suggested that Francisco Liriano will open the season in the minors, despite his strong outing on Sunday afternoon.

So, unless something changes, this is what we can expect the team's 25-man roster to look like on March 31:

C: Mauer

1B: Morneau

2B: Harris

SS: Everett
3B: Lamb

LF: Young

CF: Gomez

RF: Cuddyer

DH: Kubel

C: Redmond

IF: Punto

IF: Tolbert

OF: Monroe

SP: Hernandez

SP: Bonser

SP: Baker

SP: Slowey

SP: Blackburn

CL: Nathan

RP: Neshek

RP: Rincon

RP: Reyes

RP: Crain

RP: Guerrier

RP: Bass

I would have liked a better final bench option than Tolbert, but none of those decisions are going to make me rip my hair out. Let's see what these boys can do.

Surprises

In our comments section last week, a reader notified me that this blog was rated as the 17th-best baseball blog in the country for the 2007 season by the readers of a site called LA Snark. Suffice to say that this was a major surprise to me and also a huge honor. I'll confess that I don't know much about the LA Snark blog and I'm a little wary of this list's legitimacy considering that some wonderful and popular Twins blogs like Seth Speaks, Twins Geek and SBG appear nowhere among the Top 101, but nonetheless it is extremely flattering that enough people voted for this blog to put it among the Top 20, and to rank it as the second-best Twins blog on the Web behind the immortal Aaron Gleeman (who came in at No. 3 overall). So, thanks everyone.

Anyway, last week's surprises didn't stop there. Bill Smith made his first official moves as the Twins' general manager, dropping Luis Rodriguez, Lew Ford, Josh Rabe and Tommy Watkins from the team's 40-man roster. Moves like this can accurately be described as "trimming the fat."

With the possible exception of Watkins, each of the players are expected to find a home with another organization during the offseason. Rodriguez has already been picked up by the Padres. These are hardly moves that will hurt the Twins, as none of these players have been valuable assets to the team.

Back in 2004, it appeared that Ford would be a part of the organization's long-term plans after he hit .299/.381/.446 over 154 games while patrolling the Twins' outfield. Unfortunately, he never approached those numbers again. Since his major-league debut in 2003, here is Ford's year-by-year OPS trend: .977, .827, .715, .599, .677. At this point his career, he is just a no-hit fourth outfielder. Because of his defense and speed, Ford still has some value, but he's not worth the $1 million-plus he's likely to receive through arbitration next season. It appears that Smith realized this, and made the necessary move.

Rabe and Watkins are both minor-league journeymen who don't really belong in the majors. Many people seem to have grown an affinity for Watkins because he's apparently a nice guy and he had some success in his brief stint as a major-leaguer this season, but it's important to note that he has hit just .249/.331/.337 over 10 minor-league seasons. I'm fine with him returning to the organization on a minor-league contract, but I found it awfully ridiculous that some people were toying with the notion that he could compete for a starting job in the Twins' infield next year.

Moving these relatively useless parts out of the picture represents a step in the right direction for Smith, but by themselves these moves don't do a whole lot of good. They key now, as Gleeman notes, will be finding superior players to replace them. That shouldn't be an overly difficult task, and if Smith can accomplish it, he could go a long way toward improving the offensive depth on this club.

Morales Time

For whatever reason, Terry Ryan has been extremely reluctant to call up catcher Jose Morales from Triple-A, even though Rochester's season is done. However, the injuries to Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond have forced the general manager's hand, and the Twins announced yesterday that Morales will be joining the Twins in time for their series opener against the White Sox tonight.

This is very good news as far as I'm concerned. I see no reason why Morales should not be getting playing time with the Twins here in the final months of the season. The 24-year-old finished fourth in the International League in batting average at .311. He posted a solid 44/30 strikeout-to-walk ratio and hit 25 doubles, although he managed only two homers in 376 at-bats. Morales is a converted second-baseman who is considered a bit raw behind the plate, but he has a strong arm, and in a lost season like this one I see no reason not give him some experience receiving the Twins' big-league pitchers.

The Twins had an open spot on the 40-man roster, and it was pertinent that they add him by the offseason because if they didn't they would lose him as a sixth-year minor-leaguer. That's just not something you want to happen with a guy who hits well at the highest level of the minors and plays a position of weakness in your organization.

Now that Morales is here, the question is whether or not he will actually play. Judging by Ron Gardenhire's tendencies this season, I would not be at all surprised to see Chris Heintz playing regularly over Morales, which would really be unfortunate. This is a time where Gardy should be feeding steady playing time to Morales, Brian Buscher and Alexi Casilla to find out if they can be looked at to contribute for next season. All three players performed well in the minors, and this is the perfect time to see how they handle the transition to the majors.

Update: Castillo To Mets

FoxSports.com and Joe Christensen are reporting that the Twins are nearing a deal that will send Luis Castillo to the Mets. In return, the Twins get two of the things they need least in the world: a struggling catching prospect and a light-hitting minor-league outfielder. The catcher is 23-year-old Drew Butera, who had been playing with Class-AA Binghamton, where he had posted a miserable .439 OPS over 117 at-bats. The outfielder is Dustin Martin, also 23, who was hitting .287/.358/.421 in Advanced Single-A.

Neither of these players look remotely impressive, but I guess that's the going price for two months worth of service from a mediocre veteran second baseman. If any of the details change or any other deals go down, we'll let you know as soon as we do.

Late Roster Moves

Usually, I don't read much into what MLB.com Twins beat writer Kelly Thesier says, unless its a funny mailbag question or something she wrote that just doesn't look quite right. However, she does provide plenty of quotes from the inner circle that controls the Twins. And manager Ron Gardenhire has had plenty to say lately.

J.D. Durbin was yesterday's hot topic and that continues to be, but more in the sense that it is becoming increasingly unlikely he will be on the team come next week. According to Thesier's article yesterday, Gardenhire sees the last roster battles as one between Carlos Silva and Matt Garza for the fifth spot in the rotation and one between Josh Rabe, Chris Heintz and Durbin for the final roster spot.

As for Durbin, Thesier says that his lack of options are "an issue with the club hesitant to lose a power arm like his," but Gardy has "made clear his preference earlier this spring to keep 11 pitchers and go with an extra bench player." In other words, Durbin is probably done. And that is because we are seeing a repeat of 2005.

As fans surely recall, the possibility of Joe Mauer getting hurt in 2005 freaked out Gardy so much that he decided to keep Corky Miller on the roster for a third-catcher. Miller managed 12 at-bats with an amazing .000/.000/.000 line before getting sent down for good. (Miller, for those tracking, holds an astounding .190/.285/.310 career line. Have to be excited about that 0.95 Isolated Discipline. This guy is patient!) By keeping Miller, the Twins were forced to part with Michael Restovich.

Restovich has a career .286/.367/.500 line at the minor-league level, with 155 homers. He had several great years in the Twins' minor-league system, including a great year at Triple-A in 2002 when he hit .286/.353/.542 with 29 homers and 98 RBI. In other words, he had the potential to be a great outfielder for the Twins and was just as good of a prospect as Durbin is, if not better.

Despite this, Restovich was never really given much of a chance by the Twins to prove himself at the major-league level and like Durbin, he struggled with injuries the year before he was released. He was easily disposed of so that Gardy could sleep at night. It appears Durbin will meet the same fate and once again, it will be for questionable reasons.

Restovich never latched on with another team, only to come back and hit home run after home run against them like a certain former Twin. Likewise, it isn't all that likely that if he is picked up, Durbin will join a team and destroy the Twins every time he faces them. But that isn't the point. The point is it would be a silly move to keep Heintz on the team and let go of a talented arm like Durbin's.

Many talented arms don't bloom until later. Spring training stats aren't meaningful enough to determine letting go of Durbin. And if keeping him means that Rabe or Heintz might be lost, it isn't as bad a loss Durbin.

As for the Silva and Garza battle? No use in wasting breath. Everyone knows the sad answer to that fiasco.