Not Always Such Sweet Sorrow

When Bill Smith took over as Twins' GM back in 2007, he wasted no time in completing his first roster purge, removing Josh Rabe, Luis Rodriguez, Lew Ford and Tommy Watkins from the 40-man roster just weeks after the regular season came to an end. I lauded the move at the time, noting that Smith was immediately "trimming the fat" and creating space on the roster for more useful players. Terry Ryan had a tendency during his years as GM to allow marginal players to occupy valuable roster spots for entirely too long, so this initial move by Smith seemed to bode well.

Indeed, Smith has subsequently shown a willingness to part with players, even if doing so reflects poorly on his earlier judgment. This was displayed perhaps most prominently when the Twins cut the disappointing Mike Lamb midway through the 2008 season despite having him signed through '09, forcing the club to eat millions in remaining salary. This offseason, we've already seen the organization part ways with Philip Humber and R.A. Dickey, and yesterday the team outrighted Brian Buscher from the 40-man roster.

It's no secret that I've always had a soft spot for Buscher; I certainly think he can serve a purpose if used correctly and I wouldn't have minded him as the left-handed side of a third-base platoon this past year. He's a patient hitter who makes good contact and often provides quality at-bats off the bench. Yet, he's not a strong defender at third base, doesn't have the speed to pinch-run and can't hit left-handed pitching. There's no denying that there are much better uses for a roster spot than a player with a skill-set as limited as Buscher's. There's a chance he could remain with the organization, but I suspect he'll look to get a fresh start elsewhere and I wish him the best if that's the path he chooses.

The goal now, as always, is finding a superior player to fill Buscher's spot on the 40-man roster. There was some thought yesterday that the Buscher move would serve as the prelude to an acquisition of Akinori Iwamura, who sources in Tampa Bay had reported was on the verge of being traded. Midway through the afternoon, though, it was revealed that Iwamura was headed to the Pirates. That scratches one high-ranking option off our list of potential upgrades at second base for the coming season.

In any case, Buscher's departure leaves an open spot on the 40-man roster, and a few more could open up in the near future depending one what happens with impending free agents Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Mike Redmond, Ron Mahay and Carl Pavano, not to mention others like Buscher who are candidates to be outrighted.

Position Analysis: Third Base

Quick note here, folks. I'll be heading to Florida tomorrow to catch some spring training baseball and I won't be returning until Wednesday. I've already got Position Analysis pieces written up for the days I'm gone, so there will be no lack of new content here, but since I'm unsure what my Internet situation will be down there, I don't know whether I'll be able to quickly respond to emails/comments or cover any breaking news that might pop up. In any event, I'll be sure to give a full report next week on anything interesting that I catch while I'm in Ft. Myers, and I hope everyone has a great weekend and enjoys the televised games tomorrow and Sunday.

On to today's third base analysis, where I'll be discussing that fellow everyone seems so excited about...

Likely Starter: Joe Crede

2008 Stats: .248/.314/.460, 17 HR, 55 RBI

Can the Twins' sole prominent offseason acquisition match the hype?

Potential Backups: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris

I've already covered the topic of Joe Crede so exhaustively that I don't feel like I've got much left to say. Crede has generated much excitement among the fan base, for various reasons. He was the team's only significant offseason addition, he has a history of hitting for power and driving in runs, he was an All Star last year, and he's hit the Twins pretty hard at times in the past while playing for the rival White Sox.

There is some legitimate reason to feel optimistic about Crede. If he can stay healthy, he's likely to provide a big defensive upgrade at third base, and he showed his power last year while slugging .460 and hitting 17 homers in an injury-shortened campaign. People look at those numbers and get wide-eyed, but unfortunately tend to look right past the .248 batting average and .314 on-base percentage he also posted last year. Those figures are not out of the ordinary for Crede; for his career, the third baseman has posted a .257 batting average and .306 OBP. Only once in the past six years has Crede hit better than .261 or gotten on base at a clip higher than .314, and it was in that 2006 season which many elect to use as a baseline for his performance even though it was as much an outlier as Michael Cuddyer's '06.

If he's healthy, Crede should be expected to deliver reasonable power numbers and solid defense while hitting for a poor average and making a ton of outs. A player like that is not without value, but those who are expecting Crede to be a superstar who will single-handedly turn around the team's fortunes are bound to be disappointed. And that's if he's healthy.

Of course, Crede's health is a major question mark. He's missed 180 games over the past two years and has undergone surgeries on his back in each of the past two offseasons. Crede claims to be back near full health, but the fact that the Twins were one of only two teams that seemingly showed any real interest in him this offseason, coupled with the fact that he was reduced to signing a $2.5 million one-year deal loaded with incentives despite employing hardball negotiator Scott Boras as an agent, suggests that I'm not the only one out there with serious concerns over his ability to play and play effectively for the majority of the season.

The beauty of Crede's contract, though, is that it features relatively little committed money, so if injuries or performance issues prevent him from seeing a ton of playing time, he won't be sucking up a bunch of unearned cash. And, fortunately, the Twins have a pretty good contingency plan in place. Bill Smith said repeatedly that he would have been comfortable entering the season with a platoon of Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris at third base, and both those players will still be available if Crede can't get the job done. Ron Gardenhire's willingness to pull the plug on Crede in a timely fashion if needed will be the key to this equation, because having quality depth just doesn't do a whole lot of good if the manager is unwilling to use it.

Crede is the Twins' starting third baseman, and I'll be cheering for him every bit as hard as I cheer for any other player on this team. But I'll continue to encourage people to keep their expectations in check so that they're not shocked in the event that Crede's offensive performance fails to live up to the hype, or he spends the majority of the season on the disabled list. There are plenty of obstacles, but if everything goes right Crede is capable of providing the Twins with a firm upgrade over Harris and Buscher at the hot corner. And, if he can't, well... Harris and Buscher aren't all that terrible themselves.

Predicted 2009 Hitting Line for Crede: .255/.300/.425, 12 HR, 50 RBI

Joe Crede: Not a Solution

"We are being buried beneath the avalanche of your inadequacies, Mr. Creedy!"

In the 2005 film V For Vendetta, the above line was screamed angrily by the corrupt Chancellor Sutler at his subordinate Peter Creedy, the head of Britain's secret police force. Though it is spelled different, Mr. Creedy's surname is pronounced the same as that of Joe Crede, which made it a favorite line to yell at my TV any time the Twins would face the White Sox over the past couple seasons.

Crede is now a free agent, and the Twins have reportedly been had a few talks with his agent, Scott Boras. This has led to much speculation from fans who like his solid glove at the hot corner and his potential to bring some power from the right side of the plate. I've been intentionally shying away from the subject because I don't think my opinion will be a very popular one, but readers have commented on this blog for two consecutive days about how nice Crede would be as an acquisition so I feel compelled to put my two cents out there.

Joe Crede is not the answer.

Many people glance at Crede's 2006 hitting line (.283/.323/.506, 30 HR, 94 RBI, very good defense) and immediately salivate over the idea of him joining the Twins on a one-year deal. However, '06 was the only good, full season that Crede has put together in the past six years, and a look at his career hitting line paints a more sobering picture:

Joe Crede, career: .257/.306/.447

For comparison...

Tony Batista, career: .251/.291/.453

When the Twins signed Batista, he was 32 and fresh off spending a year playing in Japan. Crede will turn 31 in April, and he was stateside last season, he hasn't been playing much over the past two years, having been limited to 144 total games due to chronic back problems. Over that span, he has hit .237/.296/.412 with 21 homers and 77 RBI in 502 at-bats. Like Batista, Crede has the potential to hit some home runs from the right side. But like Batista, he's likely to do so while reaching base at a very poor rate.

Now, a healthy Crede is a vastly superior defender to Batista, which instantly makes him a far more valuable player. The problem is that "a healthy Crede" is not one that any team is likely to get this year, particularly not a team that plays on artificial turf. Crede's back problems hav been a major issue over the past two years and, knowing how back injuries can linger and haunt players, I'm rather skeptical of Crede's ability to remain healthy and fully productive throughout the 2009 season. Even if he's able to stay on the field for the majority of the year, there's a pretty good chance Crede's back will remain an impediment that saps his power and negatively affects his defensive prowess.

Now, there's little risk in handing Crede an inexpensive one-year deal and bringing him to camp to compete for a third base job, with the promise that he'll win the spot if he proves healthy and more capable than the alternatives. However, as we've seen with Batista, Adam Everett, Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez and numerous others, that's not how this organization goes about it's business. Even on one-year deals, when the Twins give a contract to a veteran player it almost always comes with the implicit guarantee of a starting job and a pretty long leash to go along with it. That is potentially very bad news for Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher, who should be able to form an effective platoon at third and who have earned a shot as long as the Twins can't find a legitimate upgrade externally.

A fully healthy and peak-performing Crede could do some things to help the Twins, but unfortunately the likelihood of that player emerging this year is extremely low. When I envision Crede playing for the 2009 Twins, I envision him struggling to hit for average or get on base, and showing less power in the pitcher-friendly Metrodome than people are hoping for based on his track record. I envision injuries negatively affecting his offensive and defensive performance when he's in the lineup, and causing him to be in and out of the lineup for much of the year, making third base an unstable and erratic position yet again. I envision him soaking up more money than he deserves and forcing the Twins to buy out the 2010 option on his contract that would almost surely be included by Boras.

The Twins have money to burn and bringing in Crede certainly wouldn't be the end of the world, but his upside isn't all that high and the chances of him reaching it are quite low. In the end, he is bogged down by too many inadequacies for me to get excited about the prospect of him as the Twins' 2009 third baseman.

Position Analysis: Third Base

Likely Starter: Mike Lamb

2007 Stats: .289/.366/.455, 11 HR, 40 RBI

Lamb could well reverse a long-standing trend of ineptitude at third.

Potential Backups: Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Macri

Third base was an absolute disaster for the Twins last year,when the team got a collective .236/.308/.323 hitting line from the position thanks in large part to Nick Punto's historically bad season. Seeking to solve the long-standing issues at the position (the Twins haven't gotten an OPS over .712 from third base since Corey Koskie left following the '04 season), the Twins went out and signed free agent Mike Lamb to a multiyear contract.

Lamb should undoubtedly provide an instant upgrade. A .281/.339/.427 career hitter, Lamb is coming off a pair of very good seasons and at age 32 he isn't terribly old. The Cal State-Fullerton product spent his first four major-league seasons with the Rangers before traveling to Houston, where he has spent the past four years.

Lamb was a solid hitter with the Rangers, putting up OPS figures of .701, .760 and .765 in his first three seasons before having his fourth cut short by injury. Yet, he truly kicked his game up a notch after latching on with the Astros, where he posted OPS totals of .867, .703, .836 and .819 during his four-year tenure. The improvement is undoubtedly in part due to playing in the Astros' hitter-friendly park, but certainly the park tilts a lot more toward righty hitters than lefties, so that is probably not the sole explanation.

What I find most interesting about Lamb is his split against lefties and righties. While in Houston, Lamb was consistently shielded against southpaws, never making more than 60 plate appearances against them in a season. However, it is worth nothing that his career OPS against lefties is just 23 points lower than righties (.770 to .747). His numbers against left-handed pitchers have been sporadic throughout his career -- he's had seasons where he has hit them well and others where he struggled mightily against them. This all makes it very difficult to judge his proper usage. I'd say that based on the evidence it seems like there's a decent chance he could hold his own against southpaws this year, but if not, it would be nice to have a right-handed hitter who could slide in and start against tough lefties. Brendan Harris would be a nice candidate to do so.

Because he was held out of the lineup against left-handers so often, Lamb wasn't truly a full-time player in Houston, never amassing more than 421 plate appearances in a season. The Twins probably expect him to be something close to a full-time player this year, which he really hasn't been since his rookie year in Texas when he appeared in 138 games. Since Lamb's failure to reach 500 plate appearances since that rookie season has had more to do with managerial strategy than a lack of durability, I see little reason to believe he won't be capable of handling full-time duty.

The largest problem with Lamb is that he is very limited defensively, so we should expect to see Punto frequently taking over at third base as a late-game replacement, as well as getting occasional starts when a groundball pitcher like Francisco Liriano is on the mound. Harris can also play some third, and as I mentioned he'd make a good platoon partner. If Brian Buscher makes the roster, he'd likely see some action at the position as well, but my guess is that he would serve more as a left-handed bench bat and injury safeguard than a true backup third baseman, since his skill set is incredibly redundant with Lamb's.

Even if Lamb can't put up the type of outstanding numbers he did in three of his past four years with Houston, he's still likely to provide the Twins with a fairly massive upgrade at third base. For the first time in four years, it's looking like the hot corner will not be a major concern.

Predicted 2008 Hitting Line for Lamb: .280/.345/.430, 10 HR, 50 RBI

Free Brian Buscher!

In the fourth inning of last night's game, a "Who's Hot" graphic was displayed on the Metrodome JumboTron, listing three players who had been performing well recently for the Twins. The top name on this list was Brian Buscher, and below his name there was a stat line indicating that he had batted .500 with a homer and three RBI in his last three games for the Twins. The problem, of course, is that those three game appearances had been spread over a period of six days, and one of them was a single ninth-inning pinch-hit appearance. Last night, Buscher was riding the pine again, in favor of Nick Punto and his wonderful .199 batting average.

In 57 major-league plate appearances this year, Buscher has hit .294/.368/.412. That makes for a .780 OPS, which is well above the major-league average of .758. It's just a bit below the major-league average OPS for a third baseman, which is .786. Yet, Buscher has been penciled into the starting lineup in just four of the Twins' 13 September games.

Here we have a young, cheap, controllable third baseman who had a terrific year in the minors and who has thus far shown to be an above-average major-league hitter, and he's consistently being benched so that Punto can continue to have arguably the worst offensive season in the history of baseball. What sense does this make? My belief in Ron Gardenhire's managing abilities is starting to fade.

To show my support for Buscher, I have taken the liberty of sponsoring his page on Baseball-Reference.com. I'm not saying the kid is going to be the next Wade Boggs, but he could very well be the answer we've been looking for at third base, and for some inexplicable reason Gardenhire won't give him a chance to show his stuff. This infuriates me to no end.