A Change in Direction

If there's one aspect of Bill Smith's forgettable tenure as Twins general manager that will stick with me, it's the veil of secrecy that came attached to all of the organization's operations. Front office personnel are not typically the most candid folks -- understandably so -- but Smith would protect every little detail regarding the team's decision-making as if it were a matter of national security. His interviews were about as dull as his name.

As such, it is fitting that the oddly-timed announcement of Smith's dismissal from the GM position on Monday came with little explanation. In a hastily scheduled press conference, Jim Pohlad would cite only "philosophical differences" while refusing to delve into any particulars.

At this point all we know is that, about a month ago, Pohlad indicated that Smith's job was not in danger, bristling at the notion that the Twins would resort to such a "knee-jerk" reaction after one bad season. Yet, here in November, with free agency already underway, Smith has been suddenly fired and replaced by his predecessor, Terry Ryan.

Given the dearth of available information, any conclusions we draw are going to be largely speculative. However, considering that the Twins' brass met very recently to discuss offseason planning, it seems safe to say that Smith's ideas about how to proceed did not align with those of the ownership. The final portion of this statement from Pohlad leaves little doubt about that:

No one in the Twins' organization wants to win any more than Bill ... The Twins' goal is to get better in 2012 and beyond. Bill was equally motivated to achieve that goal, but we differed in the scope and approach that was required.

One could venture to guess that Smith adamantly pushed for a more long-term rebuilding process, which would entail punting the the 2012 season for all intents and purposes. Ownership, feeling the pressure of a disgruntled fan base hungry for meaningful steps aimed at short-term improvement, simply could not accept this approach and handed the reigns back to a man whose moves fueled a decade of success.

On the flip side, one could also surmise that Smith was unhappy with the team's proposed spending reduction (Ryan pegged $100 million as an estimate) and felt inhibited from taking the actions he needed to right the ship. Drastically improving a 99-loss club with only $18 million or so is a tall task, and another ugly season in 2012 would only further tarnish Smith's reputation. The Twins, noting Ryan's past proclivity for succeeding under financial restrictions, may have opted simply to go back to what's worked before.

Either scenario seems plausible, but -- as I said -- it's really all just speculation for now. What we know is that Smith's blunder-filled reign at the helm has come to a close, and Ryan is back in charge after a four-year hiatus. Those who have grown exasperated with the club's direction in recent years should think twice before exploding into a jubilant celebration, however.

I wrote a post back in late September yearning for an injection of fresh thinking into the Twins' front office power structure. While swapping Ryan for Smith qualifies as a major shake-up, it hardly guarantees a complete change in philosophy; in fact, it falls right in line with the good-ol-boy, promote-from-within strategy for filling vacancies that we've come to expect.

By all accounts, Ryan remained heavily involved in the team's decision-making during Smith's shaky tenure, and the only new figure who's been added to the front office mix through all this is Wayne Krivsky, who was a long-time fixture here before. Ryan is now the man in charge, but it's not clear that this will drastically alter the traditional and heavily scouting-based approach that has increasingly hurt the club in recent years.

That's not to say I disapprove. Far from it. It's become clear to most who follow this team that Ryan -- a trained scout -- has a better understanding of the game than Smith, and the Twins are clearly doing right by the fans, as evidenced by a Star Tribune poll that has a whopping 97 percent of readers approving of the decision.

Personally, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Terry Ryan and at the very least I'll enjoy reading his reliably insightful quotes rather than Smith's obnoxious administrative cliches. My dissatisfaction with Smith over the past year has been well documented and I'm all for a change in direction at the top, even if I wasn't necessarily clamoring for it. I'm not convinced that shuffling front office personnel will completely cure all of the misguided philosophies that have plagued this organization at times, but I can say this much:

The unexpected switch adds yet another level of intrigue to what was already shaping up as a pretty interesting offseason.

Loyalty

Among sports franchises I've followed, the Twins stand out as the most boldly loyal. They promote from within, they've had two managers in the past 25 years, and they treat the players they like very, very well.

Loyalty is by no means a negative trait. To the contrary -- it's likely a big part of the reason that the Twins are held in such high regard around the league. But there is such a thing as "loyal to a fault," and I think we've seen it play out in the way Joe Nathan's return has been handled.

Nathan deserves a great deal of respect for his demeanor, determination and work ethic over the past year. When he learned last March that he was ticketed for Tommy John surgery, he immediately set his sights on retaking the closer position at the outset of the 2011 season.

Without a doubt, Nathan did everything in his power to expedite his recovery. When spring training got underway this year, he was there on the mound, throwing to live batters, just like he said he would be. Sort of amazing.

But, looking past the heartwarming story, there was little to suggest Nathan was ready to be pitching high-leverage relief innings in the major leagues. Still just 12 months removed from a surgery that normally takes at least 16 for full recovery, Nathan was throwing with noticeably decreased velocity and spotty command in exhibition play.

His spring training numbers showed it. In nine appearances, the right-hander was blown up for nine runs on 10 hits and four walks, managing only three strikeouts.

Yes, spring training numbers usually should be taken with a grain of salt, but Nathan was fighting for a job. Even looking beyond the hits and walks, the fact that he was able to notch only three strikeouts in nine appearances while trying to prove he had the stuff to close games should have been an immediate red flag. But when the time came, Ron Gardenhire and Co. made the decision everyone expected. They awarded Nathan the closer role over Matt Capps, who'd been vastly superior.

(Steve Nesius, AP)

It took no more than one appearance this season for the casual baseball observer to recognize that Nathan didn't have it. His fastball sporadically dipped under 90 MPH, he repeatedly missed his spots, and his breaking pitches lacked consistent bite. As the season has progressed, things have unfolded about as you would expect, given these issues.

Nathan, once a strikeout artist, has managed to whiff only three of the 27 batters he has faced. He's walked five and allowed six hits -- including a monster home run in Saturday's game that tagged him with his second blown save in a span of three days.

After the game, a humbled Nathan volunteered for a demotion. He'll settle into a low-leverage role that minimizes the damage he can do while he tries to figure things out. That doesn't really do any favors to a bullpen that's already short on trustworthy late-inning options.

Capps' move into the closer role will obviously open up more high-leverage spots in the seventh and eighth innings. Gardenhire makes it sound as though many of those opportunities will go to Glen Perkins, another player to whom the Twins have been fiercely loyal -- almost to a baffling degree.

Loyal to a fault? We'll see.

In Draft, Twins Sticking to Their Guns

The Twins have had a very obvious preference in recent years for using their early draft picks on two particular types of players: light-throwing college pitchers and athletic high school outfielders.

As such, it was hardly surprising that when tracking the Twins' draft over the past couple days I saw them take the following players in the first four rounds:

1) Alex Wimmers, a right-handed starting pitcher from Ohio State University whose fastball barely touches 90 mph.

2) Cartier Goodrum, a speedy and toolsy high school shortstop who most believe will wind up playing in the outfield.

3) Pat Dean, a left-handed starting pitcher from Boston College who typically works in the high 80s with his fastball.

4) Eddie Rosario, an athletic high school outfielder out of Puerto Rico.

The fact that the Twins consistently target these same types of players in the high rounds year after year can be frustrating for fans. When I say they like "light-tossing" college pitchers I don't mean they like to draft guys who throw underhand, but they tend to go after the polished control pitchers like Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker rather than the raw hard-throwers with big-time upside. While this strategy could be considered relatively safe, it doesn't churn out many dominating top-of-the-rotation types.

Similarly, the Twins' tendency to bring in athletically gifted teenage outfielders can peeve fans simply because the arrival time on these players tends to be lengthy. Denard Span was drafted in the first round back in 2002 and it took him six years to make an impact. It's tough to get excited about players who, even if they turn out, won't be able to help the team until 2016.

While some might be dismayed to see the Twins employing the same old approach this year, it's awfully difficult to argue with their recent results.

Kyle Gibson, a polished college hurler nabbed in the first round last year, has quickly transformed into one of the better pitching prospects in the minor leagues. He's already up in Double-A and it's not unthinkable that he could be pitching for the Twins sometime in his first full pro season, a la Matt Garza.

Aaron Hicks, a toolsy high school outfielder taken in the first round of the 2008 draft, has displayed advanced plate discipline and outstanding athleticism in his young professional career and was ranked as the No. 19 prospect in all of baseball prior to this season by Baseball America.

Ben Revere, who was widely considered to be a giant reach when the Twins selected him in the first round of the 2007 draft, has batted .331 and stolen 105 bases over his first 307 minor-league games, positioning himself as the Twins' table setter of the future.

Of course, there are plenty of other examples from years past, including Slowey, Baker, Span, Matt Garza, Torii Hunter and so forth.

Like it or not, the Twins have stringently adhered to a specific draft strategy in recent years and for the most part it has worked for them. Granted, this year's draft -- which saw the Twins select pitchers and outfielders in rounds five-through-eight as well -- once again leaves the organization looking pretty thin on high-end talent at the infield positions, but let's not forget that the team's best current infield prospect (Miguel Sano) and best current catching prospect (Wilson Ramos) were both signed as international free agents. That's an area where the Twins have ramped up their focus lately, so we'll have to hope they can seek to address the areas that remain weaknesses through that avenue.

As far as the draft is concerned, though, the Twins are staying the course. And that's just fine with me. If Wimmers turns out to be the next Brad Radke, he will easily be better than the typical find with the No. 21 overall pick in Major League Baseball's crapshoot draft.

Role Reversal

Ozzie Guillen has never been too timid about stating his adoration for the Minnesota Twins and the way they play the game. At seemingly every opportunity, he has publicly complimented the organization, its players and its manager. Oftentimes, when the White Sox would play at the Metrodome and Guillen would rattle off one of his profanity-laced diatribes about his team's uninspired play in a post-game presser, one got the impression that the Chicago skipper secretly desired a gig in the opposing dugout.

It should come as no surprise that Guillen is partial to the "piranha" approach to run-scoring that he helped the Twins make famous a few years ago. During a 16-year playing career, Guillen posted a modest .264/.287/.338 hitting line while managing just 28 home runs in more than 7,000 plate appearances. Even when he was at his best, Guillen's value came from his speed and defense. That style certainly doesn't mesh with the way the White Sox have been constructed for much of the past decade, with an offense built around plodding sluggers like Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, Joe Crede and Carlos Quentin. Chicago's offensive formula has been effective -- as illustrated by their World Series Championship in 2005 and subsequent AL Central title in 2008 -- but it has been drastically different from the one employed by the light-hitting Twins.

Today, we're seeing a major shift in philosphy for both teams.

The Sox have spent the past year parting ways with the likes of Thome and Dye while loading the roster with players fitting a different mold. Juan Pierre, who was signed during the offseason to play center field and bat leadoff, is a speedy runner who has consistently demonstrated an ability to hit for a high average but whose power is almost non-existent. Omar Vizquel, Chicago's new starting shortstop, is an all-glove guy who provides little with the bat, particularly at this late stage of his career. Mark Teahen, acquired in a trade with the Royals, hasn't slugged over .410 in any of the past three seasons.

Through moves like these, the White Sox are shedding their label as a straight power-hitting club while leaning more on speed and defense, not to mention an excellent and relatively youthful starting rotation. This is the formula that once epitomized Twins baseball.

Looking at the current Twins' roster, however, we find that they've strayed from that foundation. An outfield alignment of Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer possesses plenty of offensive upside but may cover less ground defensively than any other trio in baseball. Glancing up and down the lineup, you're hard-pressed to find three guys capable of swiping 20 or more bases, but you're also hard-pressed to find three (OK, maybe four) guys not capable of bashing 20 or more homers.

Over the years, Chicago has regularly sat near the top of the league in long balls while the Twins have been at the bottom. As recently as 2008, the White Sox ranked first in the American League in home runs while the Twins ranked dead last. This year, there's a pretty realistic chance the Twins will out-homer the Sox. The last time that happened was the last time the Twins won the World Series, back in 1991.

The White Sox will be a team to monitor throughout spring training and throughout the season, as they appear to be the Twins' most formidable competitors for the AL Central crown. For the first time in ages, the Twins may have the more dangerous lineup in this heated rivalry, but conversely the Sox may hold an edge in pitching and defense. It's a strange role reversal, but it should make for another great race in a division that has gained a reputation for improbable outcomes.

Frustration

While perusing my daily slate of blogs yesterday, I came across an interesting and thoughtful post on Seth's site in which he basically wondered aloud why many Twins fans feel the need to expend so much energy complaining and venting about the same central issues when it comes to this club. The sentiment is hardly surprising coming from Mr. Stohs, who is one of the most mild-mannered and easygoing people you will ever meet, and without a doubt it's something I can connect with to a large degree. It is somewhat ironic, though, that his post popped up on the same day I chose to rattle off a rather vitriolic rant about Ron Gardenhire's continual fascination with penciling the struggling Nick Punto into the lineup on a daily basis.

Such outright negative posts are pretty rare around here; as you can ascertain from the blog's tag-line I make a pretty strong effort to remain level-headed in all my analysis. I'm not the type to get overly worked up over a single loss, or to become emotionally distraught when I disagree with a move the team makes. After all, it's just a game. But there is something distinctly therapeutic about venting one's frustration with their favorite team in situations where that frustration is clearly warranted. And apparently there's a similar benefit in reading such diatribes, since those occasional posts carrying the "rants" tag have been among the most popular -- in terms of readership and response -- in this blog's existence.

And while I'd like to keep positive and remark on the things that are going well for the Twins right now, it's difficult to do so when you've reached the point of questioning the basic competency of some of the organization's chief decision-makers.

I didn't always agree with the front office's actions during the Terry Ryan regime, but in general I almost always understood them. Acquisitions like Rondell White, Ramon Ortiz and Bret Boone might not have worked out, but a person could always at least see the logic in adding those players. Even in the early days of Bill Smith's tenure, I didn't find any of his moves to be without reason. Players like Mike Lamb and Adam Everett had been valuable pieces in the recent past, and even though they didn't work out one could see why they were brought in. The Johan Santana and Matt Garza trades both look brutally ugly right now, but one could see how Smith and Co. envisioned those moves ultimately improving the team. Moreover, during those days the organization's personnel moves were constrained by a perpetually limited budget.

Recently, my patience with the front office as headed by Bill Smith has been wearing thin. To cite a prime root of my irritation, let's talk about the bullpen. It has been a clear, unmistakable flaw for this team ever since Pat Neshek went down with a season-ending elbow injury early last year. The problem was compounded when the Twins learned that Neshek and Boof Bonser, another hurler who they'd envisioned as a potential late-inning dominator, would both miss the 2009 season due to arm surgery. And yet, the front office did nothing to address this issue other than letting Dennys Reyes walk and signing free agent leftover Luis Ayala, a supposed sinkerballer with a substandard groundball rate who was coming off a 5.71 ERA season.

The unaddressed bullpen has predictably caused plenty of problems for the Twins this year, and yet the team has done nothing to augment the unit other than calling up mediocre former minor-league starters like Sean Henn, Bobby Keppel, Brian Duensing and Kevin Mulvey. The trade deadline came and went without any move being made to improve the team's absurdly thin relief corps, which was made more frustrating by the assertions of Smith and other front office personnel that no usable relievers could have been acquired without giving up top prospects. Such a statement is suspect in its own right, and in fact provably false when you take into account the fact that several solid relief pitchers were swapped in late July at relatively modest costs. For the front office to shovel these excuses onto the fans is not only obnoxious, but flat-out insulting. (Aaron Gleeman has a great take on this whole situation here.)


Thinking about the severe problems facing the Twins' bullpen always brings me back to Anthony Slama. My frustration over the organization's handling of arguably its best relief prospect over the past two years has been aired here many times, but I simply cannot discuss the front office's inept management of the major-league bullpen without coming back to it. Slama was honored as the Twins' Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2008, he holds a dazzling 1.75 ERA and 13.4 K/9 IP rate in his minor-league career, he is 25 years old, and yet still he remains mired in Double-A while veteran minor-league retreads lose games for the big-league club. Slama's numbers are, and always have been, exquisite; the only conceivable reason for holding him back is his unexceptional command (he has issued 31 walks in 62 1/3 innings this year -- a rate of 4.5 BB/9 IP). While somewhat troubling, this middling control has not prevented him from being highly effective overall in New Britain, and any notion that a mild problem with throwing strikes is sure to doom a player from having success in Triple-A and the majors should have been dismissed by Jose Mijares, who posted a 5.0 BB/9 IP rate in his minor-league career and has issued 4.5 walks per nine innings with the Twins this season but has still managed to be one of the team's three most reliable bullpen arms.

The Slama dilemma has become so obvious at this point that even Patrick Reusse, who rarely delves into the realm of prospect analysis, is advocating for his promotion. In Reusse's column, minor-league overseers Jim Rantz and Rob Antony suggest the possibility that Slama could be promoted directly from New Britain to Minnesota at some point this season, but such a drastic step should not even be necessary. Apparent complacency on the part of the Twins' front office personnel kept Slama stuck in Single-A for the entirety of last season and now in Double-A for the entirety of this year, in spite of his performance at both levels clearly indicating his readiness to move on. This conservative approach would be far more acceptable if it weren't for the dire circumstances that have been facing the Twins' bullpen for over a year now.

It almost seems like stubbornness is guiding the Twins' decision-making in this situation. And that annoying sense of stubbornness extends beyond the front office personnel and down to the team's manager and his lineup decisions. Joe Mauer has hit .398/.451/.707 as the Twins' No. 2 hitter this year, and yet Gardenhire has consistently refused to leave him in that spot for more than a few weeks at a time based on some apparent golden rule of baseball that middle infielders must fill that spot in the order. Early in the season, the manager wasted numerous rally-killing at-bats on players like Punto and Alexi Casilla, apparently not understanding that the second hitter in the lineup figures to receive the second-most at-bats of any player on the team and that wasting precious outs between two of your best hitters can be devastating to run production. Now, with the acquisition of Orlando Cabrera, Gardenhire has found another player to push Mauer down in the lineup. While it might seem silly to complain about this now, considering the amount of success Cabrera has had early on with his new team, nothing changes the fact that the newly acquired shortstop holds a .322 career on-base percentage and is much better suited for the bottom of the order. Yet, once he reverts to his career hitting levels, there is little doubt that he will remain in that two-spot, separating two of the team's best on-base threats with his mediocre production. One truly wonders what Mauer has done to make the manager believe that he is not perfectly suited for that second spot in the lineup.

With the injuries and poor performance they've gotten from their rotation, the Twins really have no business being in a playoff hunt this year. Yet, they are. They are within five games of first place with nearly two months remaining, because they play in a division without a single truly outstanding team, and despite their disadvantage in the standings they still remain in great position to come out on top due to an extremely favorable remaining schedule. Such opportunities do not come along often, but through inaction and inept decision-making the Twins are still managing to let it slide away.

This team is on the cusp of greatness, with Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan and others all having career seasons. The club is being held back by a number of glaring flaws that could and should have been addressed long ago, but it seems that this front office's answer is to sit still, cross their fingers and pray for the best while hoping that lateral moves like replacing Ayala with Keppel and replacing Harris with Cabrera [EDIT: and replacing Perkins/Liriano with Pavano] will appease the team members and fan base.

For a fan who dedicates a great deal of time to watching, discussing and promoting the team, that course of action can generate quite a bit of well warranted frustration.

Keeping Up

As we head into the final two months of the season, the Twins' top focus will be keeping pace with the Tigers and White Sox in what has predictably become a highly competitive AL Central division. There is, however, another competing entity that the Twins will have to keep in mind here as we prepare to turn our calendars to August: the Vikings.

Some sources claim that Brett Favre will be announcing his intent to play for the Vikings in the upcoming 2009 season by the end of this week. Others say he will wait until the July 30 deadline to make his announcement. The one thing that remains consistent among reports from nearly any source close to the situation, though, is that Favre will be playing quarterback for the Vikings this season. And there is zero doubt that his arrival in Minnesota will bring with it a flurry of media attention, both local and national. We've already seen the hoopla start to kick up over the past couple months as rumors have mounted and gained traction about the mutual desires of Favre and the Vikings to form a partnership this fall.

The Twins always find themselves in the position of competing with the Vikings for attention as NFL training camps kick off in early August. This year, that battle will be more challenging than ever for the Twins. Regardless of your feelings about Favre, there's no denying that he is a magnet for attention no matter where he goes, and there are plenty of aspects to his joining the Vikings right now that make the situation a perfect storm for rampant media and sports fan fixation.

If the Twins sit quietly through the trade deadline period and subsequently fade from the standings over the final two months of the season, they'll have a tough time maintaining any local attention while the Brett Favre Frenzy gets underway. Given that fading attention leads to lower TV ratings and lower ticket sales, the Twins have plenty of incentive to keep people interested. As such, there is added urgency for Bill Smith to craft a strategy that will keep the Twins at or near the top of the division down the stretch.

While not a bad signing, Mark Grudzielanek is probably not the answer. And to be honest, I'm not really sure what the answer is. The Twins are a fairly good team, but at their current rate they'll have a hard time separating themselves from the pack. I have a hard time getting excited about the possibility of trading for Freddy Sanchez. The idea of trading for Roy Halladay is wishful thinking. (Although, if the Jays are truly in full sell mode, the Twins had better be inquiring about relievers Scott Downs, Jason Frasor and Brandon League.) It could be that Smith's best course of action would be to sit out the deadline action and hope that Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey can pull it together and carry the team in the final weeks of the season. Of course, remaining inactive on the trade market is a risk; if it doesn't work out, Smith risks alienating fans and even Twins players who have grown increasingly frustrated with a perceived lack of effort from this front office.

The Vikings: Making It Easy To Be a Twins Fan

On Sunday afternoon, the Vikings suffered a demoralizing 34-0 loss to the rival Green Bay Packers. The Vikes fell to 3-6 on the season, and are seemingly headed for another disappointing sub-.500 finish. The team's popularity seems to be dwindling; meanwhile, the Twins remain a hot topic for Minnesota sports fans despite not having found a whole lot more success in their latest season. It's not hard to see why.

I used to be a big Vikings fan. It was hard not to be, with the high-flying offenses of the late '90s and the likable personalities those teams featured -- guys like Robert Smith, Cris Carter and Jon Randle. But recently, the team has become increasingly difficult to watch, and difficult to like.

I think that at this point it's fair to say that Brad Childress was a bad hire. Not only is he a terrible coach, he seemingly has no interest in making the Vikings an exciting or marketable team. He restricts the media from practices. He insists upon running the most boring offensive scheme ever conceived (West Coast Offense), even when his personnel aren't suited for it. He seems to have a generally snide and condescending attitude, even though it's growing more and more difficult to believe that he actually knows what he's doing when so many of his decisions turn out so poorly. It is evident that his players have stopped playing for him; what other conclusion could possibly be drawn from the lifeless performance the Vikings gave at Lambeau Field on Sunday?

The Vikings have gained a reputation as a heartless organization. The franchise has been embarrassed by its players' actions -- from Love Boat to Whizzinator -- and the front office has not come off much better. The latest offensive act from the Vikings' brain-trust was their decision to dock receiver Troy Williamson a game check for attending the funeral of his maternal grandmother. After being lambasted by players, media and fans for this absurd decision, the team elected to change its mind and pay Williamson, but the damage had been done.

The fans are quickly losing interest. On two occasions already this season, companies have had to buy a large number of tickets to prevent a home game from being blacked out on local television. It would seem that there is a very good chance that this week's game against the Raiders will be blacked out; the Vikings reportedly still have 3,500 tickets remaining for the game, and they'll have a nearly possible time selling those with an uninteresting opponent and their only exciting offensive player (Adrian Peterson) out with a knee injury.

Meanwhile, even when the Twins aren't having success, they are still a likable organization. Say what you will about Ron Gardenhire, but he's at least an affable guy and his players seem to like him and respect him. As general manager, Terry Ryan was reserved and sometimes condescending in the same manner that Childress is, but Ryan was much more open and willing to talk to the local media. Unlike the Vikes, the Twins don't repel fans and prospective free agents with their shady business practices.

Is it any wonder that the Twins are selling tickets and gaining fans while the Vikings sink further into despair? Is it any wonder the Twins are building a new stadium in downtown Minneapolis while Zygi Wilf continues to unsuccessfully lobby for one of his own?

The Vikings used to be a nice diversion for me during the baseball offseason, but now I can barely watch the games anymore. In my opinion, Wilf needs to make a coaching change and start changing the image of this organization.