Wednesday, November 09, 2011

A Change in Direction

If there's one aspect of Bill Smith's forgettable tenure as Twins general manager that will stick with me, it's the veil of secrecy that came attached to all of the organization's operations. Front office personnel are not typically the most candid folks -- understandably so -- but Smith would protect every little detail regarding the team's decision-making as if it were a matter of national security. His interviews were about as dull as his name.

As such, it is fitting that the oddly-timed announcement of Smith's dismissal from the GM position on Monday came with little explanation. In a hastily scheduled press conference, Jim Pohlad would cite only "philosophical differences" while refusing to delve into any particulars.

At this point all we know is that, about a month ago, Pohlad indicated that Smith's job was not in danger, bristling at the notion that the Twins would resort to such a "knee-jerk" reaction after one bad season. Yet, here in November, with free agency already underway, Smith has been suddenly fired and replaced by his predecessor, Terry Ryan.

Given the dearth of available information, any conclusions we draw are going to be largely speculative. However, considering that the Twins' brass met very recently to discuss offseason planning, it seems safe to say that Smith's ideas about how to proceed did not align with those of the ownership. The final portion of this statement from Pohlad leaves little doubt about that:
No one in the Twins' organization wants to win any more than Bill ... The Twins' goal is to get better in 2012 and beyond. Bill was equally motivated to achieve that goal, but we differed in the scope and approach that was required.
One could venture to guess that Smith adamantly pushed for a more long-term rebuilding process, which would entail punting the the 2012 season for all intents and purposes. Ownership, feeling the pressure of a disgruntled fan base hungry for meaningful steps aimed at short-term improvement, simply could not accept this approach and handed the reigns back to a man whose moves fueled a decade of success.

On the flip side, one could also surmise that Smith was unhappy with the team's proposed spending reduction (Ryan pegged $100 million as an estimate) and felt inhibited from taking the actions he needed to right the ship. Drastically improving a 99-loss club with only $18 million or so is a tall task, and another ugly season in 2012 would only further tarnish Smith's reputation. The Twins, noting Ryan's past proclivity for succeeding under financial restrictions, may have opted simply to go back to what's worked before.

Either scenario seems plausible, but -- as I said -- it's really all just speculation for now. What we know is that Smith's blunder-filled reign at the helm has come to a close, and Ryan is back in charge after a four-year hiatus. Those who have grown exasperated with the club's direction in recent years should think twice before exploding into a jubilant celebration, however.

I wrote a post back in late September yearning for an injection of fresh thinking into the Twins' front office power structure. While swapping Ryan for Smith qualifies as a major shake-up, it hardly guarantees a complete change in philosophy; in fact, it falls right in line with the good-ol-boy, promote-from-within strategy for filling vacancies that we've come to expect.

By all accounts, Ryan remained heavily involved in the team's decision-making during Smith's shaky tenure, and the only new figure who's been added to the front office mix through all this is Wayne Krivsky, who was a long-time fixture here before. Ryan is now the man in charge, but it's not clear that this will drastically alter the traditional and heavily scouting-based approach that has increasingly hurt the club in recent years.

That's not to say I disapprove. Far from it. It's become clear to most who follow this team that Ryan -- a trained scout -- has a better understanding of the game than Smith, and the Twins are clearly doing right by the fans, as evidenced by a Star Tribune poll that has a whopping 97 percent of readers approving of the decision.

Personally, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Terry Ryan and at the very least I'll enjoy reading his reliably insightful quotes rather than Smith's obnoxious administrative cliches. My dissatisfaction with Smith over the past year has been well documented and I'm all for a change in direction at the top, even if I wasn't necessarily clamoring for it. I'm not convinced that shuffling front office personnel will completely cure all of the misguided philosophies that have plagued this organization at times, but I can say this much:

The unexpected switch adds yet another level of intrigue to what was already shaping up as a pretty interesting offseason.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

Both of the scenarios you laid out are not correct. It has more to do with overhauling all aspects of the organization, from training staff to how talent is evaluated and everything in between.

Bill Smith proposed that only small tweaks were needed but the Pholads thought a larger change was needed and were looking for more answers. Once they found out Ryan would take the job they made the switch.

Anonymous said...

Twins and "large changes" just doesn't sound right.

Dan said...

I had an email conversation with a buddy about the change, and I feel the same way you do. Baseball operations are (slowly) evolving, and bringing back Terry Ryan is a move backwards, not forward. I guess I'm part of the 3% who isn't a huge fan of the switch. I shouldn't say that. I definitely feel the Ryan > Smith, and the Twins are better today than they were yesterday at this time. But Ryan has his own limitations. I'm placing some of the blame for the Twin's current lack of depth on multiple failed drafts between 2003 and 2007 - blame which falls partially on the shoulders of Ryan.

I'm not expecting an amazing turnaround of the franchise. Sure, the major league team should improve next year with better health, but the system-wide issues with depth and performance will take years to repair.

Nick N. said...

It has more to do with overhauling all aspects of the organization, from training staff to how talent is evaluated and everything in between.

As far as I'm aware, there have been no changes made to the training staff. I'm not sure I understand how switching general managers will "overhaul" that unit. As far as talent evaluation, I'm hopeful that we'll see some improvement there but Ryan was certainly involved during Smith's tenure.

PK said...

Either of your scenarios are plausible given how little we know about the inner workings of the front office, but it seems to me, from all I have read and seen from Bill Smith, he did not appear to understand the need for much adjustment. He seemed to believe Mauer, Morneau, and Span returning to health was all that was needed for the Twins to contend again with some minor tweaks and maybe re-signing Cuddyer or Kubel, and picking up a defensive SS and a starting pitcher

It seems equally clear to me that Pohlad and Ryan believe that will not be enough and more substantial changes will be needed.

I'm with you in believing Ryan will not be the answer long term and hope that Ryan will live up the "Interim" in his title and not stay longer than a year while giving at least a reasonable portion of his time and energy to identifying and empowering his successor.

Ed Bast said...

While it's been painfully clear for some time now that Billy was in way over his head, I would still like to see an injection of outside perspective in the organization. Let's not forget, Terry Ryan basically left the organization hanging in 07 when he decided he didn't want to deal with the Hunter/Santana situations. And as I've said for a while, the organization needs a change in philosophy, and on face value it doesn't seem like Ryan will offer that.

However on the radio Ryan made it very clear that he believes injuries were nowhere near the whole story last year, something Pohland and Billy have not been willing to acknowledge. So this is a major positive.

Lost in the shuffle of all this: $100 mil payroll next year? Looks like all those blueprints everyone put together are complete garbage. I half-way defended the Pohlads last week, saying we can't just spend our problems away. But cutting $15 mil in payroll in year 3 of taxpayer-funded Target Field, which was supposed to allow us to compete with the big boys? Wow. It must be awesome to be able to be a business owner and show blatant contempt and disregard for your customer base and still rake in profit by the millions. That's the Pohlad Way.

Nick N. said...

Lost in the shuffle of all this: $100 mil payroll next year? Looks like all those blueprints everyone put together are complete garbage.

My blueprint called for a payroll of $103M.

armyman2007 said...

This is one of those rare situations where throwing money at a problem is actually the solution to the problem. Getting rid of Smith in favor of Ryan will do no good as long as the team is unwilling to spend money. That is a fact. Look at Ryan's last tenure. He has about 10 years of embarrassment from 92 to 01. Then, he got lucky with a few trades and made the playoffs a few times and ALCS in 02. But really, how hard is it to repeat division titles in the Central Division? Sure he is a good enough GM to compete in the Central, but when do we start saying that the Central Division title is not good enough anymore? It is time to start seriously competing for World Series title and a change in GM's is not the answer, only a change in philosophy will be enough.

frightwig said...

"Let's not forget, Terry Ryan basically left the organization hanging in 07 when he decided he didn't want to deal with the Hunter/Santana situations."
====

Twins fans generally also seem to have forgotten Ryan's last few years on the job, when the team limped through two of those seasons and even the memorable 2006 team stumbled at the start partly because management had too many washed-up veterans blocking young talent.

Notable players Terry Ryan acquired from October 2004 through 2007: Corky Miller, Jason Tyner, Juan Castro, Mike Redmond, Brent Abernathy, Bret Boone, Luis Castillo, Alexi Casilla, Tony Batista, Andres Torres (spent 2006 season in minors, released), Rondell White, Ruben Sierra, Dennys Reyes, Zach Ward (for Kyle Lohse), Phil Nevin, Brian Buscher, Jeff Cirillo, Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Drew Butera (for Luis Castillo), and Matt Macri (for Ramon Ortiz).

I'm not leaving out any good players. Luis Castillo, Mike Redmond, and Dennys Reyes are really the highlights of his moves in those last 3 years.

Draft highlights from 2005-07: Garza, Slowey, Duensing, Burnett, Tosoni (2005); Dinkelman, Manship, Valencia, Slama (2006); Revere (2007). Yeah, his last few drafts weren't so great, either. The 2003-04 drafts, with Moses and Plouffe at the top, were pretty thin, too.

Laches said...

"This is one of those rare situations where throwing money at a problem is actually the solution to the problem. Getting rid of Smith in favor of Ryan will do no good as long as the team is unwilling to spend money."

---Nope. They're willing to spend $100 mil. The last 2 World Series champions have had payrolls right around that. So the notion that it's impossible to win without spending more than that the Twins are planning is simply false.

"That is a fact. Look at Ryan's last tenure. He has about 10 years of embarrassment from 92 to 01. Then, he got lucky with a few trades and made the playoffs a few times and ALCS in 02. But really, how hard is it to repeat division titles in the Central Division?"

---You've just contradicted yourself, silly! First you claim that you need to spend money to win. Then you dismiss the Twins division titles claiming it's not a hard division to win. You do realize that in most of those years, the Twins were far outspent by the Tigers and/or White Sox, right? So if you need to spend to win, then by definition it's very hard to win division titles when your division rivals are shelling out a lot more cash than you are.

But then again consistency has always been a problem for Twins fans. They're the same ones who rail against the lack of talent on the team, then demand that the manager be fired when this deficient bunch of players falls short of the World Series. It's like listening to a bunch of little old ladies who complain that food tastes terrible and the portions are too small.

TT said...

"his last few drafts weren't so great, either."

Only in the eyes of football fans who think drafts produce lots of major league players. But in baseball most of the first round draft choices are failures. And after that it gets a lot worse.

Three starting pitchers (Garza, Slowey and Duensing) from the 2005 draft is outstanding. Its way too early to complain about the 2006 drafts onward. Virtually every young Twin prospect not names Mauer has been slow to develop in the eyes of the football fans who expect immediate gratification.

If you look at the 2004 draft, Kyle Waldrop and Trevor Plouffe are just trying to establish themselves. Perkins has produced both as a starter and as a reliever at the major league level. The 2003 draft produced one starter (Scott Baker) and not much else. That is actually far closer to typical drafts than 2005. The 2002 draft produced Span, Crain and Neshek. The 2001 draft produced Mauer and Blackburn. The 2000 draft produced Jason Kubel.

My point here is that this is not a bad track record, no matter what some people might think. The Twins drafts have been producing a steady stream of players. There are only 2 MVP's and 2 Cy Young Winners each year. You aren't going to see too many of those.

We have no idea what Smith's drafts might produce. I have a lot of confidence in Terry Ryan and that this can't work out too badly. But I am not sure Smith is getting a fair shake. They won two divisions and almost won a third one, even after losing two premiere players in Santana and Hunter.

Nick N. said...

It's also worth noting that Ryan was generally coming to the table with a short stack. I can remember very few instances during his tenure where the team went over slot to get a guy in the draft, but they've done it several times over the past few years, and have also developed a much larger international presence, thanks to budget increases.

While Terry Ryan was building division winners with a $40-50 million several years ago, I often wondered what he would be able to do with more plentiful resources. Now we'll find out.

Shane Wahl said...

About the TC blueprints: I was rather surprised to hear John Bonnes essentially say that a near $100 payroll would ruin his blueprint (and that non-TC Aaron would say that he would blow up the whole team with such a payroll). You provide a good blueprint for $103 million. Also, there is something to be said about starting the season with a lower payroll because *the Twins don't know who is going to be healthy* in 2012 and they might need to spend money in an unbalanced (salary) trade early in 2012 to still compete. Much ado about nothing. All the other blueprints would easily get down to the $103 million mark by losing any one of the three Twins free agents who could be back, or by losing some outside free agent signing (Buehrle in John's case, Harang in Seth's case).

frightwig said...

"Only in the eyes of football fans who think drafts produce lots of major league players."
----
Stuff your condescending pose. I hardly even watch football, anyway.

Twins fans should know that the club depends on the draft, more than most clubs, for its success. That and the shrewd trade, now and then, since the Twins GM isn't going to be landing big free agents or the most coveted international amateurs.

And these are the facts: in his last 3 years on the job, Terry Ryan drafted a good pitcher who fell out of favor with Gardy soon after arriving to the big leagues, and a 3rd baseman who had a nice half-season as a rookie (at 25) but suffered a sophomore slump this year and will be playing for his future next season. He drafted a few more mediocre players and roster filler in that time, but nobody who has been part of the team nucleus or is likely to be in the future.

Meanwhile, his eye for finding underrated talent on other rosters or in the FA bargain bins mostly failed him in those last few years, too.

People seem to be excited about both firing Smith and giving control back to the guy who made the Twins winners, the guy who drafted Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Hunter, the guy who found Santana in the Rule 5 draft, the guy who fleeced Brian Sabean. But from the evidence of his last few years in the GM chair, those glory days were already well behind Terry Ryan by the time he retired.

I have a feeling that he's going to disillusion a lot of Twins fans before he steps down again.

Mike said...

@frightwig and @TT- Man, I looked through the list of players the Twins have drafted that frightwig posted and thought that was pretty good. It isn't like other sports where you draft someone and they're immediately a productive contributor to the parent team.

As far as the acquisitions, what do you expect? The Twins were still playing a very small budget at that point. The guy made some moves for financial reasons. Some of those players listed panned out better than most people were expecting, and at least with Castillo, the Twins seemed to have gotten the last bit of productivity from his playing career. Bad 2008, good 2009, bad 2010, out of the MLB in 2011.

Mike said...

@armyman "Look at Ryan's last tenure. He has about 10 years of embarrassment from 92 to 01. Then, he got lucky with a few trades "

First of all, he didn't become GM until 94. Second, I would be curious to know how he was lucky or how his look towards the future didn't work out well for the Twins. He worked with a restrictive payroll and built a team with players that panned out in the MLB to create a team that consistently makes the playoffs. He made too many moves for me to think that there was much luck involved.

I just can't think of too many bad trades he made. Sure, he gave up more talent than he received back sometimes, but usually those moves were made out of financial necessity and at least he received something for the departing players. And he made several very good trades.

Shane Wahl said...

To contribute to the Ryan discussion, look at those terrible years in the 90s and those very good years in the 00s. What do you notice? The bad years came after a successful period for the team, so they drafted lower. The good years came after the sucky period when they were drafting higher. Now the Twins have been better and their system is thin at the top. I am confident that at least one of these top 61 or so picks the Twins will get will be a very good+ player. This one year might be the jumpstart the Twins need to replenish the system (esp. with pitching).
But analyzing draft success is not hard and it is understandable *if* the last few years of Ryan's drafts were not great.

Anonymous said...

I just find it funny that Nick nelson thinks Bill Smith has a Boring name

TT said...

"I have a feeling that he's going to disillusion a lot of Twins fans before he steps down again."

I am sure that will be true. Its always true.

" in his last 3 years on the job, Terry Ryan drafted a good pitcher who fell out of favor with Gardy soon after arriving to the big leagues, and a 3rd baseman who had a nice half-season as a rookie"

His last three drafts were 2005-2007. How do Garza, Slowey and Duensing in 2005 translate to "a good pitcher"? The jury on Rene Tosoni and Alex Burnett from that draft is still out. I am not sure I am willing to write off Chris Parmelee from 2006 just yet either, or Joe Benson for that matter. Ben Revere, from Ryan's last draft in 2007, looks to be a winner. That makes that draft a success. We will know more when we see what Angel Morales and Danny Rams can do at AA next year.

I don't think all those players fit the claim of "mediocre players and roster filler".

"I just can't think of too many bad trades he made. "

There has been a lot of complaining about the Hardy deal. How does Ryan get a pass for letting David Ortiz go for nothing under the same circumstances with Matt LeCroy as his projected replacement? At least Smith got something in return.

Nick N. said...

I just find it funny that Nick nelson thinks Bill Smith has a Boring name

Better than anonymous :P

TT said...

Shane -

Outside of the first few players, the differences in success between drafting early and late aren't that great. The Twins had a lot of early draft choices that were duds, Ryan Mills, Adam Johnson and BJ Garbe were all high draft choices. That didn't prevent the Twins from winning.

Ryan faced two issues in the 90's. One was the budget. I think people forget the Twins had the highest paid player in baseball after Puckett signed and they continued to be paying him a good chunk of the payroll for most of the 90's.

The other was that Ryan was always trying to win short term. It really wasn't until the Pohlad's cut his budget to the bone in 1999 that Ryan gave up on that. It was that move and the players who developed out of the 1999 season that really set the Twins on the path to a decade of success.

I am not sure that the apparent impression some people have of Terry Ryan as a patient guy willing to take lumps while rebuilding is accurate. I think his natural tendency is to put the best team he can on the field even if that means aging veterans.

Anonymous said...

Mike said "I just can't think of too many bad trades he made."

Great and very truthful statement. Terry Ryan is a quiet genius who really has never made a bad trade. I challenge anybody to check his resume and find a bad trade? He took over in 1994 and was told to cut payroll in half and traded all the star players. He then built team from scratch.

Sure he released David Ortiz and signed many washed up veterans, but that was because payroll was still low. Just watch what he does with $100 million. Two words define a good GM, talent evaluation. Smith was not very good at it and Ryan is one of the best.

TT said...

"Terry Ryan is a quiet genius who really has never made a bad trade."

Scott Erickson for Scott Klingenbeck?

Kevin Tapani and Mark Guthrie for Ron Coomer?

Rick Aguilera for Frankie Rodriguez?

Todd Walker and Butch Huskie for Todd Sears?

I'll stop there, but there were plenty of other clunkers. Every GM has them.

Anonymous said...

Good start, Twins. Smith was more washed up than Kevin McHale. See you guys in 3 years when we have pitchers and a shot at the division title.

VFP27 said...

I think with Smith at the helm, Gardy had too much sway in the organization. With Terry, Gardy goes back to being a Manager, something he's better at. Should be interesting!