During his entire career with the Twins, Joe Nathan was a testament to Terry Ryan's genius. Francisco Liriano, and to a lesser extent Boof Bonser, have had their moments, but Nathan was the prize gem acquired in what is widely viewed as Ryan's greatest move as a general manager.
Over a span of six years, Nathan was one of the two or three best closers in the league. He was a lights-out force at the back end of the Twins' bullpen, never succumbing to the sporadic down years that plague most relief pitchers in the majors. And Ryan managed to net this elite arm in return for one year of A.J. Pierzynski.
Now, one of the players that defined Ryan's previous tenure as GM is the first to exit under his latest. Last night, Nathan signed a two-year deal, $14.5 million with the Rangers.
The parting of ways makes sense from both perspectives. At age 37, Nathan's top priority is understandably winning. The Twins' chances of being legitimate a World Series contender within the next two years are suspect at best, whereas the Rangers will be a favorite out of the gates after falling a game short of glory this season.
Meanwhile, while team president Dave St. Peter tweeted last night that the Twins were never given a chance to match the offer, it doesn't really make a difference. Two years and $14 million was around the maximum that they could have afforded to offer, and Nathan probably would have required more -- perhaps significantly more -- to re-up, given the realities being faced here.
With so many needs left to address, it wasn't in the the Twins' best interests to make that kind of substantial investment in an aging reliever with a surgically repaired arm, even if he is the franchise's all-time saves leader.
Brace yourself, because Nathan won't be the last Terry Ryan success story to walk away this offseason. Michael Cuddyer is almost surely gone -- another victim of financial constraints -- and Jason Kubel could easily follow.
Then, Ryan will face the tall task of rebuilding the solid foundation he constructed in the early-to-mid 2000s, with limited funds and little in the way of tradable assets. This figures to a multi-year project.
As such, can you blame Nathan for heading south?
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
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32 comments:
I agree with you we should call Oakland about closer Andrew Bailey. The only problem is the Twins do not have any prospects that other teams want.
I can't really blame Nathan for leaving but this puts even more pressure on Ryan to show fans that the two lame signings so far are just the beginning of a series of moves. I think getting a top of the rotation talent like Edwin Jackson should be priority #1. I also like Ryan Madsen for the BP. I hope I'm wrong but right now I feel another 90 loss season coming on.
Are there any young unproven closers/relievers that we could nab up? It seems like for the money that we would have spent on Nathan, we could get 2-3 young, strong bullpen arms, hopefully one of them pans out as a closer and another as a strong bullpen arm. As much as I loved Nathan, this could benefit the Twins in the long-term. Ryan has a lot of work to do...
I disagree. I think if the Twins could have gotten Nathan by matching that contract, they should have.
The message Nathan has sent is that the Twins are not a desirable place to play next year. This was not a financial move on his part.
If Cuddyer leaves, it will likely be for the same reason, not because of "financial constraints". Unless you mean the Twins aren't willing to pay him substantially more than anyone else.
This makes offering arbitration to Capps look a lot better. That will depend, in part, on the new collective bargaining agreement. But the Twins may need more than just a big check to find talent willing to play here.
We did NOT offer Capps arbitration (thank god). Capps would have gotten $6-7M in arbitration (despite the fact that his free market value is somewhere between $1-4M), so the Twins made a wise move there. And I really hope Nathan leaving doesn't induce a panic move like bringing back Capps for too much money & too many years or trading Span for Storen.
Nathan was a great pitcher, one of the best closers in baseball for 6 straight years. But we paid him $51M for 463 innings over 8 years. That's a lot of cheddar for a reliever. There's better value investing in other parts of the roster, especially right now.
Sad to see Nathan go, but not suprised and I certainly don't blame him. Players come and players go, that's the business. What I don't understand is why St. Peter transfers all the blame on Nathan by saying that the Twins didn't get a chance to match the offer. This is straight up propaganda and I'm not buying it.
If St. Peter wants to show us how much we tried, tell us what really happened. Did the Twins have an offer on the table? Maybe they said let us know when you have an offer and maybe we'll match it. Maybe the Twins lowballed him from the start, as they did with Torii Hunter a few years back. Maybe $14.5 was Nathan's number, he said first come first serve, and the Rangers stepped up to the plate. However it played out, it's ridiculous for St. Peter to think that he can appease fans by saying we didn't have a chance to match the offer. If I were a potential free agent considering signing with the Twins, I might ask why their front office would take a jab at a consumate professional like Joe Nathan.
It would have been nice had Nathan shown the Twins the courtesy of matching/exceeding the offer, even if they wouldn't have. It would have been nicer if St. Peter had taken the high road and kept his tweeter shut.
I do blame Nathan for leaving. The Twins showed tremendous commitment to him with his last contract and he spent a great deal of it on the disabled list or ineffective. Just when he's getting healthy, he's taking his services to another team.
Yes he has the right to do what's best for him. But fans have the right to take him down from the pedestal.
And I wouldn't say the AJ trade was certainly TR's best moment. Trading for Santana or choosing Mauer over Prior are up there too.
Matt Capps needs to follow him out the door unless he wants to pitch the 7th inning for $2.5 million or less. There is ZERO reason to sign him otherwise, and offering him arbitration would be completely insane.
Edwin Jackson? No. Ryan Madsen = more expensive than Nathan. Get real, people. Octavio Dotel and Todd Coffey can be had for $6 million combined.
Josh -
The decision of whether to offer Capps arbitration won't be made until next month.
"Octavio Dotel and Todd Coffey can be had for $6 million combined."
Maybe, but not likely by the Twins.
Both of those two players were pitching setup, got less than an inning per appearance and got less than 60 innings total.
Dotel other numbers look great last year, but his numbers the previous two years were terrible and he is 38 years old. Coffee also had his best year in a long time and faced 20 fewer batters than a struggling Capps and got 18 fewer outs.
Its unlikely either of them would be better than Capps next year. And you certainly wouldn't sign them to be closers unless you were desperate.
Nathan did us a favor by leaving. 2 years and 14.5 million for a relief pitcher that is 37y/o and coming off TG surgery the year prior? Teams still haven't figured out that relief pitching is overvalued by millions of dollars. Nathan had a WAR of 0.0 last year. Since 2007 his value had been steadily dropping. From 2004-2007 Nathan averaged over 3 WAR a season. That for a relief pitcher is amazing. Unfortunatly his prime is gone. He has value still but not in the length and amount given out by Texas. Not even close. I hope Nathan the best but the Twins came out winners by having Texas sign him.
Sean
I definitely have mixed feelings about this. Of course he has a right to pursue other options. But it's still irritating to see your team pay $24.5 million over two years for the guy to rehab/be injured for about 1.25 season and pitch poorly the other .75 season he wasn't on the DL, only to bolt when he seems to be healthy and coming around.
All the same, had the Twins resigned Nathan for two years for $14.5 million, I would have felt it was too high. Still, this is going to leave a big question mark for closers for the Twins this year.
I guess it just makes the offseason that much more interesting for the Twins. Especially with Cuddyer and Kubel likely to walk and Capps not likely to make $7 million if he does come back to the Twins, this does at least open up more money to pursue free agents.
"If I were a potential free agent considering signing with the Twins, I might ask why their front office would take a jab at a consumate professional like Joe Nathan."
If you're a free agent with enough leverage to do this, sure you would. Which is why we don't sign premier or even mid-tier free agents. Why would you take less money to play for a classless organization who doesn't care about the postseason?
It's truly pathetic that St. Peter would take the opportunity to suggest the Twins would have spent the money to keep him if only Nathan would've let them. Another blatant lie from a front office that's cutting payroll. When are fans going to wise up to this pattern of deception?
Year 3 of Target Field, which all us fans paid for because we were told it would allow us to "sign free agents" and "compete". Well, we've got Nathan and Cuddy leaving, and our big-time free agents so far are a 38-year old journeyman and an oft-injured backup. Reminds me a lot of Mike Lamb and Adam Everett, except that at least Mike Lamb had a history of starting.
This quote from Nathan says it all about the state of this franchise: "One of our goals was to find a contender and get back and pitch in some big games ASAP."
"I might ask why their front office would take a jab at a consumate professional like Joe Nathan."
I don't see any jab at anyone. Almost any player in baseball is going to choose a team that was just in the World Series over one that just lost 99 games.
I suppose if you think there is something wrong with that, it is a jab. But I suspect most people in professional baseball understand its a business.
TT, it's certainly a jab, St. Peter is saying, Gee, after all we did for this guy, and he didn't even give us the courtesy of matching the offer. The implication that "it was all about the money" for Joe. This is the Twins' PR machine at work here. They are leading the fans to believe they would have spent the money to keep Nathan. It's damage control for the fact they're cutting payroll. It's brilliant PR: if the outcry about their cutting payroll gets too loud, they'll just say, hey, we really WANTED to spend more, but we can't help it if our free agents won't take out money. A complete lie, but an unprovable one.
Gosh, just think if some of the members of the front office were as dedicated and skilled at putting together a baseball team as they are at profit-making and PR.
Get rid of Gardy. Get rid of any player that currently costs money (bye bye Cuddy, Baker, Kubel, Justin, Joe) and start over from scratch. Use the money saved to rebuild the minors and move the best of them up to the parent club to learn on the job. We will lose for three years, but losing isn't so hard to take when you are watching promising kids develop. Also, jettison Jose and Capps. They are both really fat.
This quote from Nathan says it all about the state of this franchise: "One of our goals was to find a contender and get back and pitch in some big games ASAP."
Is this statement surprising to you in some way? The Twins lost 99 games this year. I think people need to come to terms with where this franchise is at right now.
"St. Peter is saying, Gee, after all we did for this guy, and he didn't even give us the courtesy of matching the offer. The implication that "it was all about the money" for Joe"
How does NOT going back to the Twins for an offer make it "all about the money"? The fact is it wasn't about the money, it was about winning. The Twins could compete on price, they couldn't compete on the likelihood he would win a ring.
"The Twins lost 99 games this year. I think people need to come to terms with where this franchise is at right now."
I agree. But the current state of the franchise has little to do with those 99 losses. The majority of the current roster wasn't around for most of them.
But it ought to be clear that the Twins can't compete for free agents with the top teams like the Rangers, Phillies and Red Sox. If this were last winter, I think Cuddyer and Nathan would already be signed by the Twins. While its not impossible, the Twins as a ticket to the playoffs looks a lot more doubtful this off-season.
The reason Nathan signed with Texas is he believes he has the best opportunity to be a part of a World Series winner. He said that was his priority and who can blame him. At his age he is not going to get many more seasons as a closer let alone on a championship team. He could not wait around for the Twins to be competitive again. I wish him well.
Nick wrote:
"...Ryan will face the tall task of rebuilding the solid foundation he constructed in the early-to-mid 2000s, with limited funds..."
The Twins had a top-10 payroll last year. Even in the $100 million range, the club will still be in the top half. Think fans of the Tampa Bay Rays bemoan their club's "limited funds?"
Let's not use money as an excuse. The Twins are in the state they're in because of four appallingly bad trades (the Santana, Young, Hardy, and Ramos deals, executed by Bill Smith.)
TT, how can you say it isn't a jab at Nathan? If not a jab, what is it? Sour grapes? I don't agree with Ed's conclusion that it was "all about the money", clearly Nathan earned the right to play wherever he wanted for whatever reasons he wanted. As a free agent, that's his right. Winning is a valid reason.
St. Peter implies that Nathan owed the Twins the courtesy to match the offer. This comment clearly places the blame on Nathan for leaving, a shallow attempt to deflect the blame from the front office for not singing him. Once the Twins declined his option, Nathan didn't owe them anything. For St. Peter to imply anything else is disingenuous.
I would rather play for Texas too. Going to the Series back to back, while the Twins have 99 losses and are cutting salaries.... easy call. Nolan Ryan has the Rangers going in the right direction. More power to 'em.
Joe was getting on in years and he needed one more big score. I am not bitter towards him at all.
But we haveholes to fill. I would prefer a youth movement. Kubes fits that, Cuddy not so much.
Now the Twins don't need to offer arbitration to Capps to get a pick. The Twins have 4 picks coming to them by letting the three remaining free agents walk.
And TT: I would have Perkins close, Dotel pair with Duensing as situational setup men, and Coffey (or LaTroy Hawkins) be the middle reliever. The Twins can fill in the rest from within.
And I would be shocked if Capps had a better year in 2012 than Dotel. I view him as the same kind of player as Todd Coffey (but Coffey might come at half the price).
I agree. But the current state of the franchise has little to do with those 99 losses. The majority of the current roster wasn't around for most of them.
Huh?
Here is Tweet 1 from Smith on Nathan:
Joe and Lisa Nathan = Class Acts. Many contributions on the field and in community. THX for 8 great years with Twins. Best of luck in Texas.
Here is Tweet 2 from Smith on Nathan:
We got rid of Joe? He left as a free agent RT @TheRealHORN12: my wife wants me to turn in my season tix cuz you got rid of @JoeNathan36
Here is Tweet 3 - the offending one:
Never given the chance. RT @tsmbain: Really. The Twins couldn't match Texas' offer?
Sorry, I don't see how that is a shot at Joe Nathan. Its just a statement of fact in response to a pointed question.
"I would be shocked if Capps had a better year in 2012 than Dotel"
I would be shocked if the didn't.
"I view him as the same kind of player as Todd Coffey"
Coffey had a better than average year last year and he still wasn't as good as Capps in a down year.
even though the Twins seem to be worse off this offseason than they've been in years, just having Ryan back in the office brings some peace of mind. Sure, they shouldn't be expected to win next year. But Ryan's best suite seems to be smart and quick rebuilding. or is it making sure his club is full of overachievers?
letting nathan walk was the right move. lets see what TR can do!
Gents, I don't believe it was "all about the money" at all, I'm just saying that's the way you could interpret St. Peter's quote. Either way St. Peter wasn't trying to make Nathan look good.
"I think people need to come to terms with where this franchise is at right now."
Right, so instead of finding stopgap solutions to contuining problems, perhaps the club should be taking a longer view?
Right, so instead of finding stopgap solutions to contuining problems, perhaps the club should be taking a longer view?
You keep saying this, but again I'll ask again: what do you want them to do? Completely punt the 2012 season and lower payroll by tens of millions of dollars, enraging folks like you?
The fact is that by letting long-term staples like Nathan and Cuddyer walk, the Twins ARE taking a long-term view. Making short, low-money commitments to players who can help the cause over the next year or two, if things break right, doesn't interfere with that process.
The Twins had a top-10 payroll last year. Even in the $100 million range, the club will still be in the top half. Think fans of the Tampa Bay Rays bemoan their club's "limited funds?"
I'm not "bemoaning" anything; I'm stating a fact. The overall payroll number means little when such a huge chunk of it is consumed by existing contracts. Ryan has about $12 million to fill several remaining holes -- that's what we call "limited funds."
"You keep saying this, but again I'll ask again: what do you want them to do? Completely punt the 2012 season and lower payroll by tens of millions of dollars, enraging folks like you? "
They're already lowering payroll by $15-20 mil...so they're trying to tread water while cutting payroll. Cutting payroll while rebuilding is completely understandable, if you can see evidence that the team is really building towards something. But cutting payroll while telling fans you're trying to compete makes zero sense. That's what upsets intelligent fans. I'll ask again: what is this organization's 5-year plan? It seems the club is satisfied with being mediocre year in and year out, rather than taking some lumps here and there to build to something greater (see the early 80s Twins for an example of this).
What do I want them to do? Get younger! Why not throw some young guys into the mix, even if it is a year early? Why not see if Dozier can win the SS job, or Gutierrez can be the closer, or Parmalee/Benson/etc. can win a job in spring training. Again, see the Twins of the early 80s.
By signing Carroll, for example, the Twins are going to have no motivation to promote Dozier, so by the time he gets to the bigs he's going through the learning curve at 26,27 rather than 23,24. We're wasting years of MLB contributions.
The team isn't going anywhere in 2012 - you said it yourself. Why not really see what you've got in the system, and adjust the draft philosophy accordingly? This solves the payroll problem as well.
Either cut payroll and rebuild, or spend and "contend." Pick one. You say we need to be honest about where the team is at, yet you put together a blueprint that solves zero of the Twins problems long-term. Are YOU honest about where this team is at?
Cutting payroll while rebuilding is completely understandable, if you can see evidence that the team is really building towards something.
They are rebuilding. Cuddyer, Kubel and Capps are all likely to leave, yielding four extra high picks in next June's draft. Prospects like Dozier, Benson and Gutierrez can come up next year and get some experience in the majors IF they prove ready, which one of them have yet.
Signing veterans to cheap, short-term contracts does not impede the team's rebuilding process in anyway. It simply puts a more watchable product on the field in 2012 while improving the hopes of contention if everything happens to break right with guys like Mauer, Morneau, Span, Baker and Liriano.
Enough closer talk. Closers are the last piece of a contending team's puzzle. This team has more pressing issues.
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