Friday, January 21, 2011

The Mauer Factor

As most people reading this are probably aware, I've been fairly critical of the Twins this offseason. They have parted with some valuable players, taken dangerous gambles on Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka, overpaid Matt Capps by several million dollars, and invested a great deal of hope in two aging veteran free agents after outstanding seasons they'd be hard-pressed to recreate.

But, I will confess that I'm probably being a bit too hard on the Twins this winter. I've been unimpressed by their frugal approach over the past few months, but the truth is that they actually made the biggest blockbuster move of any team this offseason. They just did it a year early.

Cliff Lee's $120 million contract with the Phillies wouldn't have been the largest handed to a free agent this offseason had the Twins not swooped in early with an eight-year, $184 million mega deal for Joe Mauer. We might not have fully appreciated it at the time because it took place in spring training, wedged between a very active offseason and the opening of a new stadium, but the Mauer deal was monumental.

Many fans are already speaking about the celebrated extension begrudgingly, and it's true that Mauer's $11.5 million raise going into 2011 (equivalent to the price of an elite free agent) is a big reason they've been restricted in their offseason activities. Maneuvering around that $23 million makes for some tough decisions, and while I don't necessarily agree with the way the front office has addressed those decisions I can at least understand them a little better.

While fans in Philadelphia are absolutely ecstatic about their prized offseason acquisition (if I hear "FOUR ACES!" one more time I'm going to lose it), Twins fans seem almost ambivalent about Mauer. That's because his signing took place a year ago, and his 2010 campaign was far less extraordinary than the one before it.

But I'm thinking positive here. The Twins have not done a lot to help themselves this offseason, and on paper they look to me like the division's third-best team right now, but Mauer is the biggest reason I would never dream of counting them out in the AL Central.

It's true that Mauer didn't perform like a $23 million player last season, but we shouldn't let his drop from superhuman to merely great make us forget that a year ago he was widely viewed as one of the two best position players in all of baseball. He endured one injury after another last summer and his numbers undoubtedly suffered because of it, but he got his knee fixed up with a minor surgery at the end of the season and enters 2011 as one of the team's few key players without major health concerns.

If he can stay healthy and produce at the level he did in 2009, Mauer can effectively carry the club. That 2009 team that surrounded him was flush with flaws; several holes in the lineup and no starting pitcher with an ERA under four. It was the gargantuan five-month season from Mauer that tipped the scales in a hard-fought struggle with Detroit for the division title, and that performance rightfully earned the catcher MVP honors.

As I see it, this 2011 Twins team is a distilled version of the one before it, with several question marks and little in the way of depth to prevent disaster should dominos fall the wrong way. I've made no secret of the fact that I'm a bit down on them, but I'll never count the Twins out.

Not as long as they have the Mauer factor.

19 comments:

Marshall Garvey (MarshalltheIrish) said...

Good perspective. I'm a little down on Mauer after his disappearance in the playoffs (which would extend to many other players, although he should have been the leader with Morneau down), but altogether cannot count him out talent-wise. It's frustrating to see the Twins make these moves with limited funds while watching good players go (I really wish we could have kept Guerrier, Rauch, and Fuentes), so the size of Mauer's contract is easy to point at. Understandable, but the guy could end up being the best catcher in baseball history and is the key draw on the team. They had to secure him.

That being said, if he's a no-show in the playoffs again this year (along with another Morneau injury), I'll lose it.

Also, +1,000,000 to the line about the Four Aces. Get ready for half of the headline-worthy accomplishments of other teams to be ignored in favor of cringe-worthy Phillies puns (i.e. Phantastic Phour saves the day again!).

cy1time said...

A kinder, gentler, Nick? I'm not sure I'm ready for that.

VodkaDave said...

I believe you owe me credit for this post.

Hats Off To Us said...

"If he can stay healthy and produce at the level he did in 2009, Mauer can effectively carry the club."

Well yeah, that was one of the best seasons in baseball history. If that can't carry a team nothing can.

Count me in the "very pessimistic" group. Mauer will again be one of the best players in baseball, but his supporting cast has the potential to be catastrophic.

If Bill Smith is again "optimistic" about Morneau starting the season, that means he won't. So the lineup will be:

1B: Cuddyer (-D, -O for the position)
2B: Nishioka (? D, ? O Best we can realistically hope for is an all-around average player)
SS: Casilla (--D, --O. Basically competeing "worst everyday player award")
3B: Valencia (avg/- D, ? O & due for a regression)
LF: Young (-D, avg/- O)
CF: Span (avg/- D, avg O)
RF: Kubel/backup OF (probably averages out to be a worse than average platoon since Kubel can't field or hit lefties and he's likely to be paired with someone like Repko who can field but can't hit anyone)

And the pitchers as a whole will probably come out to be about average overall, but since they depend heavily on a terrible-fielding team the offense will need to score a lot, which seems unlikely.

Again, very pessimistic.

Josh said...

I'm a little less pessimistic, but I'm still not 100% thrilled with the moves this off-season.

I don't think Casilla is that big of a risk. There may be some drop off from the O-Dog, but we should be able to expect better health from Alexi. The price is certainly right, and we're at a point where it's time to make a decision on him as a player.

Valencia should experience some drop off this season, mostly because his BABIP last season was so high. but there's also a pretty good chance we'll see better power performance from him this season, and his defense seems to be clocking in above average, so I feel pretty good about a full season of Danny V.

Nishioka is a risk, but he's not a bad one to take. Span will hopefully have a bit of a bounce-back year, and maybe learn to yell and call of his fellow fielders better.

I'm not that worried about the bullpen, in part because historically teams have been able to find the bullpen arms they need, and the Twins have had success in putting one together on the fly. Capps is overrated and overpaid, but it's a sop to the manager and his style. As long as Gardy is the manager here (and now that he's won Manager of the Year, he's not going anywhere or changing his style) the front office will have to make some moves in response to the way he manages. Guys like Capps are the price we will pay.

Matt said...

Good to see a shred of optimism for once.
The revolt from Twins fans had Mauer not been signed would have been monumental; letting the "hometown hero" leave for the "dreaded" Yankees would have had the fan base, the vast majority of which possess 0.01% of the insight Nick and some other great baseball minds have, would have stopped coming in droves to Target Field.
News flash, that's most of the fans and this is a business, bottom line.

Enjoy the season.

jbiowa said...

"on paper they look to me like the division's third-best team right now" This is the one thing that makes me optimistic. not because you said it but because I think it will be the position of most of the pundits.

I have always believed that (apart from the playoffs) the Twins fare better -- and Gardenhire works more magic -- when they are underdogs. It is a scraping, small-market, underdog, bunker mentality. And I think that in general it fits into the "Minnesota Nice" character of this team. It is okay to scrape and fight and excel when you are not expected to do well but if you do so when you are favored, it seems a bit like bullying and that's not "nice".

This team doesn't have any swagger. I think that hurts them in the playoffs but helps them when they aren't favored in the regular season. I look for a big year from Mauer -- he is in a bit of a bunker as well -- at least with some fans.

Anonymous said...

Nice to be positive, Nick, but don't apologize. The BEST you can say about this team is we've stood pat by signing some folks who were here last year and that we HOPE Gardy's gambles work. A couple questions for the board could be...

1) What was the average number of innings pitched per game by our starting pitchers last year whose names were not Pavano? Do we think that we will really improve this year?

2) Who sets up Capps if Nathan can't pitch (or pitch up to par) this year? And please don't say we'll just trade the "odd man out" in our starting rotation to get an above average set-up man (gee, we had 4 of those types of pitchers at the end of last year and, oops, they're all gone).

3) Why does Gardy think speed is the "missing ingredient" at Target Field? Is he REALLY saying Nishioka and Casilla are the answers to our offensive issues?

Of course I'll be rooting for the Twins this year....but let's not have Gardy and Smith manipulate us like this....we have a much WORSE team on paper going into this year....that's the fact.

Kelly Vance said...

Mauer being healthier should lead to better numbers for him, as should Morneau returning to hit behind him. Valencia is a huge improvement over Punto at 3b. The OF is teh same and Span should be better, Young is, well, still young -- 23 or 24. Cuddy regains his spot over Kubel.

Pitching is slightly upgraded if you figure Frankis is improving and Duesnslinger replaces Slowey or Blackburn. Closer is the same. We lost some middle relievers, but we have other guys waiting and getting Nathan back may offset all of those losses by itself. Gibson is ready.

As for Nishi and Alexi up the middle, I don't see a major fall off defensively. Hardy missed a third of the season, so Alexi was playing a lot anyway. Losing Hardy's supposed better bat over Alexi is more than offset by having Valencia all season. O'Dawg was a player that I liked, but he was hurt a lot too. I'm willing to give Nishi the benefit of the doubt. And increased merchandise marketing in Japan, and an increase in Twins fandom overseas for having Nishi may lead to the Twins bringing in more dough to pay for a pitching upgrade.

Contrary to all of the mouths with no experience managing a team or runing a front office, I think the Twins know EXACTLY what they are doing and are being smart.

dtlund said...

Mauer has no chance to regain his power numbers of 2009 while hitting in Target Field.
http://www.katron.org/articles/target-field/part-1.html

kelly said...

jb, think about it. Say odd man Blackburn goes to the pen. We trusted him to pitch 6 innings every 5 days, so why can't we trust him to throw an inning or two every other day?
Our pen will be fine.

Stop whining. Man, if our forefathers who fought the Indians and built a nation were here, they'd be ashamed.

Twins are gonna kill this year

noam chomsky said...

Moving forward, I think Mauer's numbers will be closer to what they were in 2010 than in previous years. He had tons of hits sneak through the turf at the dome and as hard as it is to believe he's in his 8th seaason. I'm not saying time is working against him but dont count on him ever hitting 20 home runs again.

As far as the japanese infielder. As you know the twins are more frugal than clack howard. They wouldn't make this big of a splash and spent this kind of cheese if they weren't convinced he would be a fine major league player. They dont see it as a gamble.

I'm suprised nick's only remark about the bullpen is more about capps. As we sit now the Twins will be counting on multiple rookies and or unproven pitchers. Imagine if Nathan isn't ready.. Who's going to get out konerko or quentin? More likely a disaster than a success.

Dave said...

We are not the third best team on paper, we are certainly the best and by a wide margin. I can't even make a case that the sox or tigers are better.

Nick N. said...

Stop whining. Man, if our forefathers who fought the Indians and built a nation were here, they'd be ashamed.

What a bizarre thing to say.

As far as the japanese infielder. As you know the twins are more frugal than clack howard. They wouldn't make this big of a splash and spent this kind of cheese if they weren't convinced he would be a fine major league player.

The Twins paid over $10 million to starting middle infielders last year and they'll pay about $4 million this year. I'm sure the Twins have high hopes for Nishioka, but I wouldn't say they took some huge financial risk on him.

I'm certain he'll be good for the bottom line. He's cheaper than Hudson would've been, and he widens the club's international appeal. I'm less certain he'll make the team better.

Anonymous said...

"Stop whining. Man, if our forefathers who fought the Indians and built a nation were here, they'd be ashamed."

Not a weird thing to say at all Nick. You sit and whine from the safety of your little crib. You get paid to complain and impersonate Chicken Little.

Look, the Twins win this year, you will say "I knew it all along." You are a phoney and a wimp. And our forbears did not carve a nation out of the woods by being whiners and pessimists.

Winners are not whiners

Anonymous said...

"Stop whining. Man, if our forefathers who fought the Indians and built a nation were here, they'd be ashamed."

Not a weird thing to say at all Nick. You sit and whine from the safety of your little crib. You get paid to complain and impersonate Chicken Little.

Look, the Twins win this year, you will say "I knew it all along." You are a phoney and a wimp. And our forbears did not carve a nation out of the woods by being whiners and pessimists.

Winners are not whiners

Anonymous said...

The Tigers and White Sox may have been more aggressive this winter but that does not mean that they have put together better teams.

The White Sox added Dunn and Crain and resigned Konerko and Aj. Dunn and Konerko make the Sox look like they've knocked it out of the park. But there are still plenty of holes/question marks in the Sox roster. Carlos Quentin and Jake Peavy are both very injury prone. Gordon Beckham at 2b has struggled to live up to his potential to date. There is no answer at 3b which now has a depth chart including Teahen, Morel and Viciedo. Plus there is no proven closer...the top 3 candidates seem to be Sale, Thornton and Crain who have combined to save a total of 24 games in their major league careers. And they like the Tigers are relying on a lot of position players entering their mid-30s, which can no longer be considered 'in their prime' in this post-roid' era.

The Tigers have added Victor Martinez, Joaquin Benoit and Brad Penny. Martinez should give the lineup some pop but will have to play mostly at DH so there will still be plenty of playing time for light hitting Alex Avila. Brad Penny has posted good numbers in the NL but has yet to prove he can perform as well in the AL. In his only year in Boston he was 7-8 with a 5.61 era. Outside of Verlander the Tigers have question marks filling out the rest of their rotation. Zumaya is coming off a nasty looking injury. Benoit looks like an answer in the bullpen if you only look at his 2010 numbers where he posted a 1.34 era but his career numbers tell a different story...career era of 4.47 in over 650 IP. Outside of last year's pair of rookies Jackson and Boesch and the MVP caliber player in Cabrera the rest of the position players are slow footed, aging players that tend to wait for the long ball to generate any offense. Ordonez is 36, Guillen is an injury riddled 35, Inge is 33 and Peralta plays like he is 34.

The Twins return a lineup relatively intact from the past two seasons. All reports have Morneau and Nathan on track to play in 2011, are they question marks? Yes, but nothing any more glaring than the question marks that dot the Tigers and Sox rosters. Mauer, Span, Cuddyer, Kubel and Baker all had down years in 2010. All of these players are still relatively young and are just entering their prime (except Cuddyer) and the potential for improvement over last year's numbers isn't terribly far fetched, especially when reports that Cuddyer, Mauer and Baker all battled nagging injuries last year. Plus their is plenty of potential in youngsters Young, Valencia, Nishioka and Casilla. Yes, I did include Casilla because his 2010 numbers were fairly productive in a limited sample size. A .276 avg, .331 obp, 26 runs, 7 doubles, 4 triples, 20 rbi and 6 sb in only 152 abs. Pavano and Thome may not duplicate their 2010 numbers but there is little reason to believe they will both drop off dramatically. Also with Pavano back the rotation should be deep enough to trade Slowey while there is still a chance to get any kind of value for him.

And Nick Punto has signed with the Cardinals...there is plenty of reason for optimism at Target Field in 2011.

Nick N. said...

Look, the Twins win this year, you will say "I knew it all along." You are a phoney and a wimp. And our forbears did not carve a nation out of the woods by being whiners and pessimists.

So you're saying that if I use my personal blog to maintain an unrealistically positive and bright-eyed outlook on a baseball team, I'll be more patriotic? Duly noted.

Also hysterically ironic that you're taking the opportunity to complain about my "whining" (which has got to be more counterproductive than the supposed whining itself) in the comments section for an entry that was 100 percent optimistic.

Anonymous said...

Blackburn needs to be the #4 starter. The guy was lights out in April, May and September. If he pitches like that consistently, he is our best starter. I'd give the nod to Slowey for #5 right now. Baker to the pen.