Not So Easy to Find

Prior to last season, when the Twins handed Jason Kubel a two-year contract extension, Dave Cameron wrote an article over at Fangraphs criticizing the move. The piece asserted that Kubel was essentially a run-of-the-mill designated hitter and that the Twins could find similarly effective options on cheap one-year deals, negating the need for a guaranteed multi-year contract. As an example, he pointed to Eric Hinske, who'd inked a one-year pact with the Pirates around the time the Twins locked up Kubel.

Cameron is one of the brightest baseball analysts in the country for my money, but I found this take to be a rare whiff for him. His logic was flawed in so many ways that I immediately took the opportunity to write up my own column refuting his points. The takeaway:

The reward, which Cameron seems to believe doesn’t exist, is that the Twins have locked up a young, improving, in-house slugger to fill a position that has been a huge liability for them historically, and they’ve done so at a very reasonable price.

Cameron's column seemed completely silly after Kubel broke out last year with a monster campaign in which he posted a .907 OPS while homering 28 times and driving in 103 runs. It was precisely the type of season that many Twins fans (including myself) had long been hoping for.

With Kubel taking a step back this season, Cameron took the opportunity today to pat himself on the back with the following tweet:

Jason Kubel: .335 wOBA, 0.4 WAR. Eric Hinske: .333 wOBA, 0.6 WAR. Maybe I'm not crazy after all...

If I were Cameron, I'd be trying to forget I ever wrote that terribly misguided article, but now he's defending it? After Kubel emerged as one of the league's best designated hitters last year while Hinske posted a mediocre .780 OPS in limited duty between two clubs? Oh, never mind last season... according to Cameron, that was a fluke.

He positions the standout campaign as an anomaly based on the fact that Kubel's 2010 numbers look quite similar to the ones he posted in 2007 and 2008. The thing is, those numbers aren't bad. Kubel's current .774 OPS rates better than the average DH and also ranks him fourth on a Twins offense that has been one of the league's very best this year. This type of performance has essentially been established as Kubel's baseline, and his numbers in 2009 were no more a fluke than Mauer's '09 or Justin Morneau's 2010 (prior to injury). Sometimes good hitters have really good years, and the Twins -- like myself -- were of the belief that Kubel was a good hitter.

My main issue with Cameron, then and now, is that he looks at issues such as this through an isolated, statistical scope while failing to account for any contextual factors. Never mind that Kubel was a minor-league monster who spent several seasons working his way back to form after a devastating knee injury, leading to the underwhelming numbers that Cameron used as a basis for his Hinske comp. Never mind that Kubel's production, even before that breakout '09 campaign, was especially valuable to a Twins club that had often struggled to find legitimate power hitters in years past. (If Kubel hits one more home run this season, he'll become the team's third player to have three straight 20-HR seasons in the past decade.) Never mind that, in spite of Cameron's assertion that competent and inexpensive designated hitters can easily be found each year on the scrap heap, the position had been a liability for the Twins ever since David Ortiz's departure.

Cameron's core point was that a team could potentially get cheaper DH production from a free agent found on a one-year deal, and there's some validity to that. In hindsight, I'm sure you could find a less expensive option with similar production to what Kubel's given the Twins in three of the past four years. But it's awfully hard to predict how players -- especially those who haven't been in your organization -- are going to perform and Kubel seemed like a safe option, having put together two straight strong seasons and having shown the potential for more.

Adam Lind led all qualifying designated hitters in OPS last year and this year he ranks last. There's a reason that Hinske, Cameron's suggested alternative, has not been able to stick with any club for more than a year since 2006. It's a volatile game, and the Twins made a safe bet on Kubel that -- at this point -- looks awfully smart to everyone except Cameron in light of the fact that they would have likely had to pay Kubel quite a bit more this season based on last year's production had they not already locked him up for $4 million.

Perhaps I'm overreacting to this whole situation because I've always been bullish on Kubel and because I find Cameron extremely aggravating to engage in debate because of his blatant air of condescension. But it stuns me that, at this point, a person so intelligent can still try to smugly defend an article that featured this statement as its central premise:

"In what world is Jason Kubel a significantly better player than Eric Hinske?"

The real world, Mr. Cameron, which apparently is not the one you live in.

No. 163 (Again)

Quick Housekeeping: Plenty of game preview stuff below, including Q&A with a Tigers blogger, but before getting started I just wanted to mention a development that I find pretty cool but that many of you may not really care about. Yesterday, you might have noticed the appearance of an ESPN emblem on this blog's right sidebar; that's because Rob Neyer has invited NTB to become part of the SweetSpot Network of blogs being featured on ESPN.com. As a guy who holds vague aspirations of becoming a sportwriter one day, becoming affiliated in any way with Neyer and the global sports coverage juggernaut that is ESPN is a tremendous honor. None of this will really affect any of the daily operations of this blog, but I'd just like to welcome anybody who's stopping by via the SweetSpot portal. Hope you'll stick around and share your thoughts.

It sure doesn't feel like it has already been a year since I last wrote a post previewing a play-in game to determine the AL Central champion. The wounds from that tough 1-0 loss to the White Sox in Chicago remain fresh. If only the Twins could have scratched one run across; if only the Jim Thome homer had fallen short of the wall; if only Michael Cuddyer could have jarred the ball loose from A.J. Pierzynski's mit when he careened into home plate on an attempted sacrifice fly. Everything is magnified in a game such as that one, because it is the very definition of "must-win."

Today, the Twins find themselves in the very same position. Amazingly, they are set to participate in a 163rd game to break a tie atop the AL Central standings for a second consecutive year. Last season, a coin flip forced the Twins to play the decisive game in Chicago, putting them at a marked disadvantage despite the fact that they'd won the season series against the White Sox. Fortunately, Major League Baseball made the decision to abolish that illogical method after the 2008 season, but few would have predicted that this rule change would come back to benefit the Twins so quickly. Going 11-7 in head-to-head match-ups with the Tigers this year has earned the Twins home-field advantage for today's game, which should prove crucial as 50,000-plus raucous fans pour into the Metrodome for what could be the final major-league baseball game ever to be played within its confines.

The Twins enter this game with just about every advantage they could ask for. Even looking beyond the home-field edge, the Twins will be sending out their best starting pitcher in Scott Baker, who has recoved from a rough start to go 15-5 with a 3.79 ERA over his past 28 starts (the Twins are 19-9 in those games). They'll be facing Rick Porcello, who has put together a strong rookie season but certainly is not Detroit's ace. He's also only 20 years old and is unaccustomed to pitching on a stage of this magntitude. His right-handedness plays well for a Twins lineup that will come very lefty-heavy. Furthermore, the Twins hold a sizable advantage in the momentum game -- they've won 17 of their past 24 contests while the Tigers have dropped 15 of 26 and are dealing with the ill-timed off-the-field issues of their best hitter, Miguel Cabrera (for more on this, check out the Q&A at the bottom of today's post).

But, as we all know, anything can happen in baseball. These teams are pretty evenly matched, and once they take the field today all the things I mentioned in the paragraph above are going to shrink vastly in significance. One team is going to play a better game, win, and move on to face the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. The other team is going to lose and go home. We Twins fans are all too familiar with that latter feeling after last year's finale against the White Sox.

But, how are the Tigers faithful feeling? I ran some questions past Kurt Mensching, who runs the excellent Mack Avenue Tigers blog, to get his thoughts about Cabrera, Ron Gardenhire and his team's chances this evening. Here's what he had to say:

NN: First things first, since I'm sure it's your favorite current topic, let's talk about Miguel Cabrera. You've written about the situation on your blog, but give us a quick rundown of the general sentiment out there regarding your team's star first baseman. Are fans angry that he is engaging in this type of irresponsible behavior during the most important part of the team's season? And do the Tigers deserve to be scrutinized for allowing him to play roughly 12 hours after he blew a .26?

KM: Well, in case your readers haven't gotten the full story yet, I'll give a bit of background first. Miguel Cabrera came to Saturday's game with scratches on his face and told reporters his dog did it to him. He went 0-for-4 that night, including hitting into a double-play in a key eighth-inning situation. Speculation was that it probably wasn't his dog.

Turns out, he came home around 6 in the morning drunk after a night out with some friends on the White Sox. (I know what we're all thinking. Friends on the White Sox? How is that even possible?! The WHITE SOX?!) But the bigger deal was that when police administered a test of his alcohol level, it came back .26. That's about eight hours before he was due at the ballpark. After he spent all night out drinking.

The series with Chicago was incredibly important for the Tigers to win, and the cleanup batter was incredibly drunk just 12 hours before it.

Fans can only be disappointed that he apparently cares so much less about winning the Tigers' first division title in 22 years than we do. Not all of us. Some say his private life is up to him. But I and many others believe his professional obligation was to be in peak condition for a key game, and he was not.

I do think it's fair to question why manager Jim Leyland allowed Cabrera to play Saturday night, but he was closer to the situation than I am. So if he felt Cabrera had sufficiently recovered from his mroning, then I'll stand by his decision.

I just wish this entire mess never occurred.

NN: The Twins have been playing good ball, but their comeback would not have been possible if not for the epic slide the Tigers have experienced. What are some of the key reasons for the team's struggles late in the season? How can they overcome these issues and pick up a win in Tuesday's game?

KM: I don't think the Tigers' slide actually was epic. They went 17-15 from Sept. 1 until the end of the season. Given no team in this division was more than a handful of games over .500, it seemed to be in line with their typical month. In the past, they've surprised against teams and disappointed against others. Certainly going 2-for-7 the final week does feed into the viewpoint of a collapse. But fact of the matter is, this just isn't all that good of a team to begin with.

To me, the true story remains that the Twins went 16-4 down the stretch.

As for why the Tigers disappointed, a few reasons: LHP Jarrod Washburn, who came over July 31, never pitched all that well due to a knee injury and was lost for September. Another starter, Armando Galarraga, was lost with an elbow injury for most of the month. Edwin Jackson turned back into a pumpkin.

And the Tigers batters continued to be awful, making the pitchers have even less margin for error. August trade-acquisition Aubrey Huff stunk up the joint too. (I think GM Dave Dombrowski shopped at Rent-a-Wreck this summer.)

I believe Leyland relied too much on some veterans down the stretch and not enough on the younger players like Ryan Raburn who got them a seven-game lead in the first place.

NN: Ron Gardenhire is generally viewed as a bum in Minnesota (though not by me) and as a genius nearly everywhere else. What's your outsider's take on him as a manager, and how would you compare him to Jim Leyland?

KM: Just watching Gardenhire timing the pitcher to decide whether he has an opportunity to steal a base excites me.

It's hard to judge a manager from the outside of course. Followers of the team record every decision that makes no sense or doesn't turn out right. Outside the team, we only see the end result of a Twins organization always in the AL Central contention. How much credit the organization as a whole gets and how much Gardenhire gets, I'd be hard-pressed to say.

Still, if Detroit had an opening at manager, I think I'd be pretty happy if it stole him away. He just seems like a guy you'd love to have running your clubhouse.

NN: Do the Twins or Tigers match up better against the Yankees in a first-round playoff meeting? Would either team stand a chance, in your mind?

KM: Honestly, I don't see how either team has a chance, especially after having the play-in game the night before New York chose to open the ALDS. But right now, I believe Minnesota has a better team than Detroit does, so it probably gets a slight edge.

Detroit's rotation looked amazing in August. Still acceptable in early September. But now it seems to end after Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello. As well, we don't have nearly enough left-handed pitchers to contain the Yankees. Nor any batting really. I don't necessarily think the Twins pitching is a whole lot better, but it's hard to argue with the results Minnesota is getting. And the batting order is a whole heck of a lot more dangerous than Detroit's.

So I guess either team has a puncher's chance, but I really don't think the Yankees are going to stumble, unfortunately.

NN: Break down the pitching match-up for tonight's game, including your thoughts on Scott Baker and your prediction for how the youthful Rick Porcello will handle this giant stage.

KM: I'll tell you what, I don't think Porcello knows there even is a stage. That kid is unflappable as any young pitcher I've ever seen. A lot has been made about Verlander's game face, but Porcello is every bit as intense. Playing in key games for the past month, he has a better ERA (3.22 in September) than Verlander. And he's only allowed Minnesota in the past 12 1/3 innings he's faced them.

As a Tigers fan, I like the matchup against Baker better than any other Twins starter. He may be their ace, but he's also the only Twins pitcher Detroit has seemed to touch this season. He comes in with just one quality start in four tries against the Tigers and has allowed four runs, five runs and six runs in those other three games. Of the Tigers' likely lineup against him, only Brandon Inge and Placido Polanco have shown signs of struggle, while Magglio Ordonez hits him pretty well.

The crowd noise will obviously play a factor for both pitchers, but I really do think this is one of the best-case scenarios for the Tigers. If Carl Pavano was on the mound, I think you could break out the Champagne right now!

NN: Who wins, and why?

KM: For probably the first time, I feel like the Tigers can win. I truly do. Yes, it's freaking me out, and no, I'm not a homer. Despite the fact the Tigers struggle in the Metrodome, I like the pitching match-up a lot and feel like the Tigers have done well with their backs against the wall all season.

Big thanks to Kurt for the thoughtful answers. The Twins and Tigers battle for AL Central supremacy today at 4 o'clock, winner-takes-all. This is what it's all about, folks.

Tuesday Notes

Lately it seems I've been spending all my time breaking down prospect performances, marveling at Joe Mauer's greatness and complaining about Alexi Casilla, so today I'll get caught up on a wide range of Twins-related topics with a bunch of notes...

* For those who wonder why I put so much value into Carlos Gomez's center field defense, Sunday's game provides a good example.

In the seventh inning, with the Twins leading 5-3, Luis Ayala came in to relieve Scott Baker with two on and nobody out. Ayala promptly surrendered a line drive to deep left center field, and the ball sailed past the outstretched glove of a diving Denard Span. Two runs scored, tying the game. In the next inning, Jose Guillen hit a liner to deep center; Span again chased the ball but had it bounce of his glove and off the wall for an RBI double. Now, this is just my opinion, but I believe that both of these balls would have been caught were Gomez in center field. That's not a dig against Span, who made a hell of an effort on both plays, but Gomez's range is unparalleled among players on this team and I've seen him run down balls hit to those areas on numerous occasions.

So, that's three runs that may have been prevented from scoring if Gomez were in the game, and perhaps the difference between a win and a loss. Now, given that neither of these plays occurred with two outs in the inning, it's entirely possible that all those runs would have scored anyway. All of these hypotheticals and probabilities are part of what makes defense so difficult to measure and value.

* Of course, we wouldn't be talking about who could hypothetically catch these monstrous 400-foot line drives if Ayala and R.A. Dickey weren't allowing them in the first place. The Twins bullpen has been rather disastrous so far, and these two are clearly looking like the weakest links. It's early yet, but Ayala has thus far proven to be a horrible signing and there's not much reason to hope he'll improve a whole lot. In spite of his misguided "sinkerballer" label, Ayala has induced ground balls at a mediocre 41.9 percent rate while opponents have slugged .556 against him.

Dickey, meanwhile, has remarkably allowed 10 of 12 inherited runners to score while posting a 2.19 WHIP and 10-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13 2/3 innings. His vaunted rubber arm hasn't even been particularly useful, as he's appeared just four times in the Twins past 14 games and totaled just five innings during that span. It's awfully tough to see what value Dickey has for this team, which is why I was somewhat frustrated when the Twins demoted and risked losing Philip Humber to waivers a couple weeks ago in order to preserve Dickey's spot on the big-league roster.

* Gomez was held out of the Twins' starting lineup for the sixth time in the past seven games last night, while Alexi Casilla once again started and batted second. Baffling.

Gomez has gotten off to a rough start offensively this year, but Casilla's been considerably worse. It's inexplicable that Ron Gardenhire is showing so much confidence in one while burying the other. It can't be that Casilla is doing "the little things," as he cost the Twins a game on Saturday night with a careless error in the field, and last night hit into an infuriurating double play because he failed to run to first base on a popped-up bunt attempt.

Casilla was only moderately more productive at the plate than Gomez last season, and Gomez brings much more defensive value when he's in the lineup. There's no reason Casilla should getting such preferential treatment.

* While Baker worked through six innings of hitless ball to start Sunday afternoon's game, I observed multiple fans complaining about Dick Bremer repeatedly making mention of the no-hit bid on the television broadcast. I find it somewhat amusing that rational, adult baseball fans -- even the statistically oriented ones who I'd hardly describe as traditionalists -- can get so worked up over a silly superstition.

I can buy into the idea that some superstitions may yield actual benefits. If a player wears the same "lucky socks" for every night game, perhaps on some deep mental level it gives them an extra measure of comfort or confidence while they're playing. But the notion that a pitcher's bid for a no-hitter can be sabotaged by a random announcer in the press box or a random fan in the stands mentioning the fact that he hasn't allowed a hit yet is downright ridiculous. Bremer is a commentator and his job is to talk about what's happening in the game, not ignore the biggest storyline in observance of an arbitrary superstition.

* Seth Stohs has been on a roll lately when it comes to recruiting podcast guests. Last Thursday, he had Glen Perkins sit in as co-host for the MN Gamenight show. Last night, for his own SethSpeaks.net weekly podcast, Seth was able to recruit Pat Neshek, Democrat and Chronicle scribe Jim Mandelaro (an authority on the Twins' Triple-A affiliate), and -- most impressively -- me.

OK, obviously I'm the least impressive name on that outstanding list of guests, but both shows are definitely worth listening to for Seth and the other guys. Check them out.

WBC Thoughts

Before I get started on today's post, I'd like to put out a casual invite for all readers to join me and a few other bloggers and Twins fans at Buffalo Wild Wings in Roseville this Saturday at 1 pm, where we'll be taking in the USA/Canada WBC match-up. With Justin Morneau, Jesse Crain and Corey Koskie all potentially participating, the game should feature plenty of Twins-related goodness and also just presents a good opportunity to catch some live baseball in early March.

Now, I've mentioned in the past that I'm a fan of the World Baseball Classic and don't fully understand what there is not to like about it. In a chat held on his Web site last Wednesday, Aaron Gleeman (who may or may not be attending our little gathering), reiterated his disinterest in the tournament by noting, "Seems sort of silly if the best players aren't playing and I don't blame them for not playing." I don't disagree with Aaron terribly often (some will tell you never), but that seems like an odd take to me. The top three finishers in last year's AL MVP race -- Dustin Pedroia, Morneau and Kevin Youkilis -- all are participating. Of the five players Gleeman mentioned as his top five fantasy picks in the aforementioned chat -- Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, David Wright and Alex Rodriguez -- all but Pujols are participating. Elite players like Carlos Beltran, Jimmy Rollins, David Ortiz, Jason Bay, Felix Rodriguez and Carlos Zambrano are all expected to take part. While it's true that a number of top players have chosen to sit out the WBC for various reasons, the idea that this tournament will feature nothing but scrubs and second-tier players is certifiably false. Plenty of Major League Baseball's best and brightest will be representing their country in the event.

Furthermore, the WBC provides an opportunity to watch international players and minor-league players that the casual fan can rarely see in action. Aside from Twins farm-hands such as Luke Hughes and Carlos Gutierrez, I'll be interested in catching a glimpse of Yu Darvish, the 22-year-old Japanese phenom who went 16-4 with a 1.88 ERA and 208-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 200 2/3 innings for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters last year.

Whether or not you care about who wins, I see little reason for any baseball fan to be totally uninterested in catching at least a few games of the World Baseball Classic. If you're looking for a place to start, feel free to join us on Saturday.

Tuesday Notes

There's not much in the way of substantial news items in Twins-land, so today I'll just touch on a few tidbits...

* As expected, the Twins announced last week that manager Ron Gardenhire had been handed a two-year extension which will keep him as the Minnesota skipper through the 2011 season. There are plenty out there who aren't particularly fond of Gardy as the Twins' manager, but I'm a results-based guy and he has gotten results, leading the team to a 622-512 record over his seven years at the helm despite a consistently young and fluctuating roster. Though his tactical managing can be frustrating, I think Gardenhire does a fine job overall and is one of the upper-echelon managers in the league.

* The Twins have reportedly made an official offer to free agent third baseman Casey Blake. This news is surely horrifying to some, but I'm alright with it, provided the terms are reasonable. There are several other teams vying for Blake's services, so the fact that the Twins have submitted "the framework of an offer" is hardly a sign that they're close to signing him. Nevertheless, this is probably the first offseason rumor we've seen that appears to have some actual meat to it.

* Damn Gophers.

* I'm sure just about everyone who reads this blog is familiar with Seth Stohs, tireless author of SethSpeaks.net. Seth has recently been compiling a book called the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2009, which features over 175 profiles of prospects in the Twins' system as well as a foreword from our beloved Pat Neshek.

While there are plenty of bloggers out there with prospect savvy, I don't think anyone out there can measure up to Seth. Unlike many who formulate opinions on a young player simply by glancing over a stat sheet, Seth also attains knowledge from speaking with scouts, coaches and even the players themselves. If I'm on the prowl for information on minor-league players in the Twins' system, there is not one single source I would go to before Seth Stohs.

For anyone looking to brush up on the organization's up-and-coming prospects or just looking for a good baseball-related read for a cold winter day, I highly recommend supporting Seth and pre-ordering a copy (and maybe one for your friend!).

I've already got my copy pre-ordered, you can do the same by visiting this page.

* On a related note, one other book I've been meaning to recommend is Hammerin' Hank, George Almighty and the Say Hey Kid: The Year That Changed Baseball Forever. The book is written by Minnesota native (and lifelong Twins fan) John Rosengren, and it chronicles the compelling 1973 season, in which Hank Aaron was chasing Ruth's home run record, baseball fans were being introduced to the designated hitter rule, and Reggie Jackson was being... well, Reggie Jackson. A fine read for any baseball fan as the weather gets cold and curling up on the couch with a book begins to look like a more and more attractive way to spend your Saturday.

Opening Day Reflections

I was a freshman in college when Mr. Mosvick and I launched this little Twins blog experiment. Three years later, I find myself about six weeks away from graduating, and I'm pretty amazed the blog has lasted this long. Despite the obligations of everyday life, I manage to make time for this little hobby of mine just about every night, and the interaction with other fans and writers has rendered the entire experience worthwhile. It's been a little bit more difficult to keep up with things over the past six months or so since Mosvick left to go to law school and effectively ceased being a contributor, but I think I've done a decent job of maintaining the update schedule and covering all the big stories.

I feel like this blog has grown with me over the past three years. My writing skills have steadily increased during my time in the School of Journalism here at the U, and I like to think that's reflected in my work here on the blog. I don't purport to be a great writer by any means, but when I go back and look at some of the content from this blog's early days... yeesh. I also think that interacting with all the great baseball minds who comment on this site and send me e-mails has vastly increased my knowledge and appreciation of the game in a lot of ways. My philosophy when it comes to baseball is one that mixes the new-age Sabermetric style with a respect for the traditional values of the game, so I can respect arguments made by both sides as long as they're based in logic.

From a personal standpoint, I don't really know where I'm headed once I finish up with school in mid-May. During the summer, I'm hoping to continue working my two current part-time jobs, and it appears I'll also be doing some work with Rotoworld (thanks to AG for the hook-up on that one). It is also likely that I will be once again be heavily involved with GameDay Magazine, the independently owned and operated program sold outside of the Metrodome before home games. If you aren't picking this mag up nearly every time you attend a Twins game, you really should. I say this not just because of my involvement with the publication and my friendship with the Editor in Chief, John Bonnes; it is a really great program which I bought regularly even before I ever wrote a word for them. If you are a reader of Twins blogs like this one, there is little question that GameDay will have a great deal to offer to you.

Incidentally, I served as guest editor for the April issue, so I'll encourage everyone even more strongly to pick up a copy (or two, or three!) if you make it out to tonight's season opener or any game this month. The issue features articles by renowned bloggers such as Twins Geek, Jesse Lund from Twinkie Town, Seth Stohs and myself (not that I'm "renowned" by anyone other than my mom).

Anyway, I'll keep doing the part-time stuff this summer and should continue to fire out daily updates on this blog. In the fall it will probably be time to start thinking about getting on with my life and joining the full-time work force. I want to tell myself that that's a long ways away yet, but then I think about how quickly these past three years have gone by and I'm reminded that the summer will be gone much more quickly than I'd like to believe.

But, I'll deal with that hurdle when it comes. In any case, I just want to thank everyone who has stopped by this blog regularly and chimed in with your thoughts. I find that even those who generally tend to disagree with me (tt, I'm looking in your direction) almost always bring well-reasoned arguments and help create quality discourse.

After a long winter, Opening Day is finally here. Enjoy tonight's game. As always, you can stop by tomorrow morning to read all my inane thoughts on it.

***

And now, a Nick Mosvick update from Virginia:

As many of you know, in late August last year I departed for the University of Virginia School of Law. Many people left nice comments and plenty of suggestions upon my posting of a goodbye message. Not all of it came true of course. However, poster J. Lichty's comments were certainly insightful, as using five different colored highlighters became not a strategy in order to frighten others or be "gunnerish," but rather was a genuine by-product of my overt indolence. Of course, the University of Virginia School of Law is, in so many ways, completely different from any other law school. A lot of the other comments dealt with having fun and balancing time, but the fact is that going to law school here in many ways does that for you unless you absolutely have a unquenchable desire to make work for yourself.

That, in the end, is the real reason why I have had so little time to even consider posting on this blog. From organizations to get together to a collegiate atmosphere in general, it has felt since the day I arrived here that I almost always had something to do if I wanted. Obviously, it will sound to most that read this that I am big promoter of the school and they would be right. I love the decision that I made and the people that I have meet have been by in large fantastic. With that said, I still miss blogging as much as I was able to in undergrad and in no real tangible way have I actually lost my appetite for all things baseball.

With that said, when the horrible time that is finals comes to an end in early May and I settle into my summer job here in Virginia, I should have time to watch games on MLB TV and return to more regular blogging. Otherwise, I'll be cheering vicariously through all of my friends in Minnesota and will have to allow box scores and the minimal highlights on ESPN suffice for the time. Now lets go Twins!

The Gathering

For those who couldn't make it yesterday to the blogger/fan get-together at Park Tavern, things went pretty well in all areas. The Twins won, the conversation was good, and we all got a break from the inane jabber that is essential to FSN North telecasts these days. The crowd included Aaron Gleeman, Howard Sinker, SBG (and Baby SBG!), Jen from Lipgloss & Baseball, and Jesse and Adam (and his dad) from Twinkie Town. Topics ranged from Aaron's comment section dilemma to Sinker's scoring of a Kubel "double" a few games ago to ESPN's awful player rating system. It was, in shorter words, a fun, eventful, and interesting get-together and hopefully, we can do it something similar before the end of the season.

As for the game, it was mainly marked by another outstanding showing from the Twins offense, featuring plenty of patience and extra-base hits and a not-so-dazzling pitching performance and win for Kevin Slowey. The Twins managed to get only nine hits for their eight runs, but six went for extra bases, including a three-run homer from Michael Cuddyer off of young Detroit phenom Andrew Miller and a two-run blast from Lew Ford.

For the offense, Jason Bartlett was a particular standout. In the game, he went 2-for-5 with a stolen base and an RBI double. Many might not have noticed, but Bartlett has been on a 11-game hitting streak, moving his batting average up 20 points to .262 and going 15-for-43 (.349) while picking up seven stolen bases to put him amongst league leaders with 16.
Cuddyer, of course, was also good, picking up a walk and a triple in addition to his home run.

As for pitching, Slowey was once again shaky as previously mentioned. He managed to pick up his third win and has not lost yet, but his 5.13 ERA is nothing pretty. Slowey once again allowed too many base-runners, giving up nine hits and a walk in his six innings of work. A 1.56 WHIP and .308 BAA are ugly stats, but what stands out more is the amount of home runs Slowey continues to give up. Slowey gave up two yesterday, tallying his total for the year to 11 in only 33 1/3 innings per work.

Since Slowey only works five or six innings, that amounts to about two home runs a game, which is a very high and unmanageable rate. Slowey has looked calm on the mound, he has picked up three wins, and he has shown fairly consistent command since coming, but in order to have continued success, he'll have to start limiting his flyballs by learning to incorporate more pitches to offset his fastball.

So far, the series has been quite interesting, as both Friday's and yesterday's game seemed like hard victories for the Twins. In each game, they faced a young phenom starting pitcher, but both times they scored enough runs, were patient, and got a big hit (Mauer's grand slam, Cuddyer's three-run job) to get to the Tiger's vulnerable bullpen. In the series thus far, the Twins have scored a total of 19 runs and have allowed only six. A sweep would be a perfect way to leave Mo-Town and although Jeremy Bonderman is yet another good, young Detroit pitcher, the Twins have had past success against. Hopefully the cards are right again and another young Twins pitcher -- Scott Baker -- manages to continue his recent success while the offense manages to continue cruising as well.

The monthly recap for June will be up tomorrow.

BaKKKKKKKKKer's Brilliance

Last night's game was a good one to catch in person at the Dome. It had some of everything: a terrific outing by both starters, a dominant showing by the Twins' bullpen, a Ron Gardenhire ejection, tons of strikeouts by Twins pitchers, a pair of (likely intoxicated) female fans running onto the field, and a 12th-inning walk-off single with the bases loaded to give the Twins a 2-1 victory.

The winning hit came off the bat of Jeff Cirillo, who was pinch-hitting for Jason Tyner against left-hander Brian Tallet after an intentional walk to Mike Redmond had loaded the bases with two outs. A guy standing a couple rows behind me saw Cirillo walk up to the plate and said, "Jeff Cirillo?!!" in a tone of voice that can only be compared to Jim Mora's during his famous "Playoffs" rant. My buddy turned around and said, "Would you rather have Tyner going up there?" The guy responded with a smug, "Uh, yeah." Of course, subbing Cirillo for Tyner was a good decision, especially against a lefty reliever, and it paid off as Cirillo dropped a blooper into shallow center just in front of a diving Vernon Wells to lift the Twins to victory and even the series at a game apiece.

Of course, the late-game heroics would not have been possible if not for some brilliant work by the Twins' pitching staff. Scott Baker, who recently nearly lost his spot in the rotation by putting together a stretch of ugly outings following a strong debut, was in the zone like I've never seen him before. Through the first seven innings of the game, Baker allowed just three hits while striking out nine and walking none. He started the eighth inning with a walk and a single, prompting acting manager Scott Ullger to remove him from the game. The Blue Jays managed to get one of those runners in on a sacrifice fly, but Baker finished with an extremely impressive line nonetheless: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. He did an especially great job of suppressing the big boppers in the middle of the Jays' lineup; Matt Stairs, Troy Glaus and Frank Thomas combined to go 1-for-9 with five strikeouts against Baker. In his last two starts, Baker has lowered his ERA from 7.33 to 5.77.

The Twins bullpen backed up Baker's great start with five excellent innings. Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek, Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon combined to allow zero base-runners over five frames while racking up six strikeouts (all from Neshek and Nathan). In total, the Twins' staff allowed four hits and one run over 12 innings while walking just one and striking out 15. It was one of the better collective pitching performances I've seen.

Credit must be given to the Toronto pitching staff, which pieced together a heck of a game in their own right. Starter Shaun Marcum delivered eight innings of one-run ball, allowing six hits and one walk while striking out two. He lowered his ERA to 3.13 for the season and is holding opposing hitters to a .202 batting average. The Jays' bullpen was very effective for three innings before Tallet finally gave up the winning single to Cirillo in the 12th.

The Twins' offense didn't look great, but we'll give some credit to Marcum and the Toronto bullpen in this one and hope that Justin Morneau's return (which apparently could be within the next few days) can help provide a jolt.

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For those who didn't make it to the last blogger/reader get-together back in April (and for those who did as well), there will be another one taking place this Saturday at Park Tavern in St. Louis Park to watch the Twins take on the Tigers. The game starts at 2:55 p.m., but we have a reservation under the name Nick Mosvick for 2:30 in case anyone wants to show up a bit earlier. Both of us Nicks will be there, and other bloggers scheduled to attend at this point include Aaron Gleeman, Howard Sinker and Corey Ettinger. I suspect some others will be adding their name to the hat as well over the next few days. I hope to see you there!

Drive Home, Slowey

Pitching in front of a home crowd for the first time in his major-league career, Kevin Slowey picked up his second big-league win last night as the Twins coasted to a 7-3 victory on the strength of a solid six-inning performance from their rookie righthander. Slowey maintained great poise in front of the Metrodome crowd, as he limited the Braves to two earned runs on a pair of solo homers. A third run scored in the sixth due to a Jason Bartlett error. Slowey was highly efficient, issuing no walks and needing just 79 pitches to get through six frames. His performance wasn't entirely encouraging, as he did give up several deep line drives that forced his outfielders to retreat, but in the end he once again pitched well enough to win, providing a welcome change from the man he replaced in the rotation.

Meanwhile, the Twins' offense pieced together a very solid performance, forcing Braves starter Kyle Davies to throw a lot of pitches before chasing him with a five-run inning in the fourth. The Twins added a couple more runs against the Atlanta bullpen to seal the deal. The ability of the Twins hitters to work deep into counts was impressive; Braves pitchers threw 158 pitches over eight innings while Twins pitchers threw 126 pitches over nine innings. The key for the Twins' offense in this game was getting production from players outside of the middle of the lineup. Luis Castillo, Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto combined for seven hits, which helped pave the way for RBI hits from Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter.

The bullpen was once again effective, receiving three scoreless innings from the formidable G.N.N. combo (Guerrier/Neshek/Nathan, or as I like to call them, "Good Night Now"). After delivering a 1-2-3 eighth inning with a strikeout last night, Pat Neshek now holds a 1.16 ERA and is holding opposing hitters to a .118. He has racked up 37 strikeouts over 31 innings while allowing just 12 hits (!) and 11 walks. That's good for a 0.74 WHIP. Neshek has been just about as dominant as humanly possible, and if he continues to pitch like this I think there's a good chance he could receive All-Star consideration.

On another note, I attended an informal blogger luncheon at Joe Senser's Restaurant in Bloomington yesterday. Among those in attendance were John Bonnes (Twins Geek), Trevor Born (Twins Junkie), Joel Thingvall (of TwinsCards.com), Seth Stohs, Aaron Gleeman, Howard Sinker and Corey Ettinger. It was a good time and there was some talk of putting together another get-together for Twins fans on Saturday, June 30 for the Twins/Tigers game. Details are a bit hazy at this point, but one possible location would be Park Tavern in St. Louis Park. We'll post more info here as it becomes available. If you missed out on the last blogger/reader get-together, I would definitely recommend attending the next one because it's quite enjoyable to hang out with a bunch of nerdy Twins fans and watch the game.

Shut-Out in the Cold

I would've been pretty unhappy with yesterday's game had I not been watching it with a bunch of friendly blog luminaries and knowledgable Twins fans while getting buzzed off a couple tall beers. Thanks to those circumstances, I was only mildly bothered by a baseball game that was about as unappealing to a Twins fan as possible.

After starting the season 3-0, the Twins suffered their first loss as they came out flat and fell 3-0 to the White Sox on a very cold afternoon in Chicago. Carlos Silva was surprisingly solid, allowing just one run on five hits and a walk over five innings, but his hefty Latino counterpart on the pitching staff wasn't quite as effective and the Twins' offense was essentially non-existent. The Twins' bats could muster just three hits in the game, one coming on an infield single by Luis Castillo and the other two coming off the bat of Michael Cuddyer, and Dennys Reyes had the first ugly outing by a Twins reliever on the season. Reyes entered the game in the eighth inning with the Twins trailing 1-0 and served up a homer to the first batter he faced, Juan Uribe. Reyes then failed to scoop up a playable Scott Podsednik bunt, allowing Podsednik to reach first. After Darin Erstad had sacrificed Podsednik to second, Reyes tossed a pick-off throw into center field, and Podsednik was able to score all the way from second thank to a lazy effort by Luis Castillo.

It was that type of day for the Twins. Their best chance to score came in the second inning, when they loaded the bases with one out. At that point, Jason Tyner hit a relatively routine pop-up to shallow center, but Cuddyer -- who was at third -- inexplicably ran home and crossed the plate, realizing all-too-late that the ball been caught and being easily doubled off at third. The offense was able to draw four walks against Sox starter Javier Vazquez in his 6 2/3 innings of work, but they managed only one hit against him, which is disappointing considering that Vazquez is generally quite hittable.

This all made for a tough game to watch, but fortunately the company made it worthwhile. Whether I was sending snarky anti-Cuddyer comments down to the other end of the table where SBG and Gleeman sat, or watching Corey Ettinger knock his chair to the ground in disgust at a Nick Punto strikeout, I enjoyed the afternoon and hope we can do something like it again soon. Kudos to Star Trib blogger Howard Sinker for putting the event together.