So Long, Silva

Considering the market that has been established for mediocre starting pitching in recent offseasons, there was never much doubt that Carlos Silva would be pitching in a different uniform next season. It was reported earlier this week that Silva and the Mariners were closing in on a four year deal worth $44 million, but I elected to withhold comment until the deal became official. That happened yesterday, when the Mariners officially announced that they'd signed Silva to a four-year contract, which turned out to be worth a little more than originally thought at $48 million.

It's a little difficult to wrap your head around, isn't it? It was less than three years ago that the Twins signed Johan Santana to a four-year extension worth $39.75M. And now Silva, a pitcher who was arguably the worst in the league two years ago, and who has little chance of being anything more than a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, is inking a contract that will pay him an average of $12 million per year. The initial reaction is to look at this contract and say, "Man, Seattle got hosed." I don't necessarily think that is the case, all things considered.

Last winter, the Brewers signed Jeff Suppan to a four-year deal worth $42 million. At the time, Suppan was about a week away from turning 32, and -- like Silva -- he was a good bet to provide around 200 innings with a solid but unspectacular ERA. Comparatively speaking, getting Silva for an extra $6 million over the same number of years seems like a decent deal. Silva is only 28 and his career ERA and WHIP are better than Suppan's were. Plus, while Suppan has had some solid years over the course of his career, he's never had a season as good as Silva's 2005, so it could be said that Silva has more upside.

Forty-eight million dollars seems like a lot to spend on a player of Silva's caliber, but the reality is that the Mariners had money to spend and they were badly in need of a reliable arm that they can stick in their rotation. Silva's ERA last year would have ranked second among Seattle's starters, behind only Felix Hernandez. The deal is good for Silva because it puts him in a place where he has a good chance to succeed -- Safeco Field is a pitcher's park and the groundball-inducing Silva will no doubt enjoy the Mariners' defensive proficiency on the left side of the infield with Adrian Beltre at third and Yuniesky Betancourt at short.

Seeing Silva sign this type of contract just re-emphasizes the fact that he is valued more around the league than a lot of Twins fans might have thought. I was quite vocal last season around the trading deadline in stating that the Twins should trade Silva for any kind of value rather than watching him walk as a free agent with no compensation during the offseason. The first team I suggested as a trading partner was, in fact, the Mariners, who were contending for a playoff spot but featured some of the worst starting pitching in baseball. If Silva is worth this kind of money on the open market, it's hard to imagine he couldn't have at least netted a prospect or two from some team looking for a rotation boost down the stretch.

Alas, the non-move by Terry Ryan goes down as another blemish on what was an unimpressive late run for the former GM. I wish Silva the best in Seattle and my guess is that he'll do fairly well there. Let's just hope he gets hit with another tummy-ache when the time comes for him to face the Twins.

A Rough One in Cleveland

Entering a series against the team they trailed by 5 1/2 games in the division, the Twins needed a big-time effort from Carlos Silva last night. Silva had been excellent in his first four August starts, having posted a 1.61 ERA. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to step up with the solid outing the Twins needed last night. In fact, he was crushed by a Cleveland team that, for some reason, always seems to have his number. The Tribe notched an unearned run against Silva in the first inning, and then proceeded to knock him out of the game by scoring six times against him in the fourth inning. In total, Silva allowed seven runs (six earned) on seven hits and two walks over 3 2/3 innings. He did not record a strikeout.

Once Silva had given up the seven runs, the game was pretty much over. While the Twins chipped away at the big lead by scoring twice in the fifth and once in the sixth, they were ultimately no match for Paul Byrd and the stellar Cleveland bullpen. Every potential rally seemed to hit a wall, with the most notable example being the seventh inning when Mike Redmond grounded into a 5-4-3 triple play.

Jason Bartlett continued his hot August hitting by going 2-for-4 with his fifth home run, but his partner in the middle infield has been supremely disappointing. When the Twins traded Luis Castillo in late July, I expected the team to be able to insert Alexi Casilla at second base without losing a whole lot. That hasn't been the case; Casilla has been utterly horrible. After going 1-for-4 last night, he is now hitting just .228/.269/.265 on the season. Those offensive struggles have been exacerbated by his countless mistakes in the field and on the base-paths. He has already committed seven errors in 36 games at second base; he has also had numerous other miscues that don't show up on the scorecard, like when he froze on the base-paths with two outs in a game in the Baltimore series, or last night when he failed to put his foot on second base when handling a toss from Bartlett that would have been a force-out. I'm not advocating that the Twins remove Casilla from the lineup, because the only way he'll stop making these mistakes is through experience, but his inability to produce at the top of the lineup has really hindered this offense since the All-Star break, and that's just something I didn't expect.

There is one other thing that is really irking me. When Brian Buscher returned from the disabled list last Thursday, Terry Ryan said that the team would be playing the rookie third baseman a lot down the stretch to get a good look at him going into next year. Since that point, Buscher has started a total of one game. Holding him out of the lineup against a tough lefty like Erik Bedard makes sense, but there is no defending Ron Gardenhire's decision to bench him in favor of Nick Punto last night. Left-handed hitters have batted .320 against Byrd this year. Buscher mashed right-handed pitchers in the minors this season; Punto hasn't hit well against anyone all year. Gardenhire's reasoning was probably that he wanted to have his best defenders on the field with Silva pitching, but the fact of the matter is that this was a big game and the best hitters needed to be in the lineup.

It was a rough loss, and together with Detroit's victory over the Yankees it leaves the Twins in pretty bad shape. They basically need to win these last two games in Cleveland if they want to have any hope of hanging in the division race. Let's see if the boys can step up.

Silva Cruises, Twins Take Another

After defeating the Athletics 4-3 last night, the Twins have now won three straight games coming out of the All-Star break. They have essentially dominated the Athletics in those three games, rarely not holding a lead. The offense has been a bit spotty, but the one constant in the series so far for the Twins has been excellent starting pitching. Scott Baker delivered a very good start on Thursday night, Johan Santana was phenomenal on Friday night, and Carlos Silva continued the trend with a terrific outing last night. A glance at his pitching line will tell you that Silva was merely good (6.2 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K), but in this case the stats certainly do not tell the whole story.

Silva set down the A's 1-2-3 in the first inning, and then after giving up a walk and a single to start the second, he retired Mark Ellis on an RBI ground-out, the first of 15 consecutive Oakland batters Silva would put away. Silva entered the seventh inning with just one hit allowed, but proceeded to put a couple runners aboard with a walk and a double. He left the game with two outs and runners on second and third, and if Dennys Reyes could have done his job and retired the lefty Mark Kotsay, Silva would have been charged with just one earned run over 6 2/3 innings, which would have lowered his season ERA from 4.58 to 4.40. Unfortunately, the one pitch Reyes threw in the game went for a two-run double into the gap in left-center. Silva was charged with both runs, and his ERA came down just three hundredths of a run, to 4.55. Nevertheless, do not be mistaken -- it was a great outing by Mr. Silva, who I maintain would be a sensible trading piece for the Twins.

The Twins have allowed just eight runs in three games against the A's, and that number could have been lower if not for a couple bad pitches by Reyes and Juan Rincon. I'm not sure how much of that can be attributed to great pitching by the Twins and how much can be attributed to a struggling A's offense, which had averaged just 2.2 runs per game over their last six games heading into the break; either way, it's hard not be encouraged by the way Twins' starters have thrown the ball over the past three days.

The Twins will make a bid for a four-game sweep today in a game that will certainly be their most daunting challenge yet, as the inconsistent Boof Bonser goes against Dan Haren, who recently started for the American League in the All-Star Game. It's a good bet that Bonser will have to continue the Twins' recent trend of great starting pitching in order for a sweep to be possible.

Adios, Carlos?

As I discussed here yesterday, it has become blatantly clear over the first half of the season that the Twins could really use an additional bat or two. Obviously, the best way for Terry Ryan to go about acquiring such help would be to part with some pitching in a trade. But, which player would make the most sense to deal?

The answer, in my mind, is Carlos Silva. Silva has been a pleasant surprise this year, entering the break with a 4.58 ERA and 1.40 WHIP after finishing the 2006 season with those numbers registering at 5.94 and 1.54. He has cut down on his gopher-ball tendencies and is on pace to allow just 20 home runs, which would be 18 less than he surrendered last year and also his lowest total since becoming a starter in 2004. He's probably been the second-most reliable starter on the Twins' staff this season. And yet, I would argue that it would be silly not to trade him before the July 31 deadline.

Silva is in the final season of his contract with the Twins and will be eligible to hit the free agent market following this season. There is probably close to zero chance that the Twins will re-sign him, because his value on the open market will likely be much higher than the Twins can afford. Teams around the league showed during the past offseason that starting pitchers with the ability to deliver 180+ innings at an ERA around the league average are pretty valuable. How valuable?

Take a look at Jeff Suppan. The right-hander entered the past offseason as a 31-year-old with a 4.60 career ERA. He signed a four-year contract with the Milwaukee Brewers worth $42 million. Jason Marquis, who holds a 4.46 career ERA, signed a three-year, $21 million deal with the Cubs over the winter and he was coming off a season in which he'd posted a 6.02 ERA.

Then you have Silva. He's just 28, he currently holds a career ERA of 4.38, and he's been a workhorse with a proven ability to stay durable and healthy. He's pitched 180+ innings in each of his three seasons as a full-time starter, and is on pace for over 200 innings this season. Granted, he had the rough season in 2006, but that year appears to be an outlier when you compare it to the rest of his career; he posted earned run averages of 4.21 and 3.44 in his first two seasons as a starter, and if he stays the course in the second half this year he can finish with an ERA right around 4.50.

Considering his age and his career numbers, there is a good chance that Silva could be offered a contract worth an average of $10 million per year this offseason. With their budget restrictions and their glut of young pitching talent, it would be both unrealistic and unnecessary for the Twins to make a run at re-signing him.

Keeping in mind that Silva will almost certainly be gone after this season, it seems foolish not to explore the idea of trading him. While the Twins would get draft pick compensation by letting Silva walk, pulling the trigger on a trade would provide more immediate help and the right player(s) could help the Twins make a playoff push this season. There are plenty of contending teams out there that will be looking to add a pitcher to their rotation before the deadline -- the Mariners, Yankees and Mets come to mind as a few examples. Silva won't bring back a marquis player, but I'd have to believe that the Twins could get some useful hitters by trading him, especially if he was a part of a package that included a mid-level prospect.

Of course, it's important to note that losing Silva for the last couple months of the season would be a blow to the pitching staff. As I mentioned before, he's probably been the team's second-best starting pitcher this season and he is also the only member of the rotation outside of Johan Santana with a decent amount of major-league experience. Yet, with Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, Glen Perkins, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn all in the mix with Santana, you'd think the Twins could piece together a more-than-serviceable rotation for the rest of the season.

I like Silva and I'm glad that he's turned things around this season, but I just don't see anyway that he'll be back in a Twins uniform next season. With that being the case, the Twins have little to lose by trading him for some offensive help.

One in Thirty

The Twins got shut out in the Bronx last night, losing 8-0. With last night's loss, the Twins have scored a total of one run in their last 30 innings, a testament to how pathetic their offense has been as of late. Considering that their only run in those innings was scored on an RBI groundout, the offense has been beyond anemic in that time. Yes, the Twins have run into the likes of Jeremy Bonderman, Roger Clemens, and Chien-Ming Wang, but both Clemens and Wang were coming off terrible starts (Wang had given up 10 runs in his previous 12 2/3 innings coming into last night's game) and Bonderman had a mediocre June (4.99 ERA, despite a 4-1 record) before the Twins welcomed him back to dominance on Sunday.

To put things in perspective, the Twins have managed 15 hits in 91 at-bats (a .165 average) in the last three games. In the two games against the Yankees, they have gone 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position. Last night, only Morneau had more than one hit, with Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, and Torii Hunter all going hitless.

* Nick Punto probably embodies the struggling offense more than anyone. After going 0-for-3 last night, Punto managed to drop his average to .205 and now has a total of one hit in his last 24 at-bats. After posting a .150/.253/.213 line in 80 June at-bats, it might be time for Terry Ryan to seriously consider picking up a third baseman and putting Punto back to his rightful position of utility infielder. What Punto did in the second half of last year was memorable, but the results did not stick and reality has reemerged quickly.

* You may be expecting a anti-Jason Tyner rant to follow, but to be fair, despite his hardly-surprising 0-for-3 night last night, Tyner was actually decent in June, going .333/.381/.385 with two steals, doing far better than Punto or for that matter Luis Castillo. Of course, this is by no means an endorsement of Tyner, but rather, it's hard to complain about Tyner DHing when Punto, Castillo, and others have been so awful at the plate as of late.

* It should be mentioned that, although I'm by no means an expert on the subject (Howard is though), it certainly feels like calls and the strike zone have been largely in the Yankee's favor over the past two games. That isn't a viable excuse at all for what has happened, but it is an explanation for Hunter's actions towards home plate umpire Ron Kulpa in the eighth inning last night.

* Carlos Silva had been on a regular alternating cycle of one good start and one bad start for a while, but he stopped that when he had his second straight not-so-good start last night. Silva allowed six runs, five earned, in 5 1/3 innings to go with nine hits, one walk, and two strikeouts. The positives are that Silva's ground ball to fly ball ratio was still very good at 10-4 and if not for Juan Rincon's continued sloppy pitching in combination with Hunter and Jason Bartlett's poor defensive plays, Silva's start may have looked a lot better, even though he would have been saddled with another loss. Including last night's debacle, the Twins have scored one run or less in five of Silva's starts.

* Finally, in more positive news, Morneau has accepted an invitation to participate in the All-Star Game Home Run Derby on Monday. Twins players haven't often participated in the event, which can be easily attributed to the long 30-home run player drought. Other than Torii Hunter's participation in 2002, only Gary Gaetti (1989) and Tom Brunansky (1985, at the Dome) have participated in the event. In those three competitions, our group of Twins sluggers combined for a meager seven home runs. Let us hope that Morneau can easily surpass that number. And no, Morneau will not catch Abreu-itis from his participation.

* Very lastly, happy Fourth of July to everyone. Stay safe and enjoy Johan Santana's start and presumably the Twins' avoidance of a sweep in New York.

Silva's Gem

Two encouraging things happened in last night's game. For one, the Twins offense did well against a good younger starter in Chuck James and showed a rare display of power with three home runs. Secondly, Carlos Silva also pitched a great game, earning a complete-game shutout and his fourth win of the season. Today I'll talk a bit about the second one.

In his last start, Carlos Silva wasn't particularly pretty against the pathetic Washington Nationals offense. In that start, he gave up nine hits and seven runs in three innings and looked like Silva v. 2006. Last night, he certainly looked like version 2005, throwing the Twins' first shutout since Johan Santana shut down the Oakland Athletics on August 12, 2005. In nine innings last night, Silva allowed eight hits, struck out two, and walked none while posting a 15-9 GB/FB ratio. Certainly reminiscent of his best 2005 season.

Such a performance should leave Twins fans hopeful. After all, Silva has now lowered his ERA to a perfectly respectable 4.07 ERA, despite his 4-7 record. Of course, it should be pointed out that even with last night's performance, Silva hasn't yet solved his major problem in 2007: inconsistency. Silva has had six starts this year in which he has thrown five innings or more and given up two or less runs. He has also had seven starts in which he has given up three or more runs, with two starts in which he gave up seven runs and one in which he gave up five. In April, he had a 3.10 ERA. In May, he had a 5.28 ERA. So far, in June, he has a 3.60 ERA.

In looking at his numbers so far, Silva's performance does not look like his 2005 season and certainly not his 2006 season. Instead, his performance has been reminiscent of his 2004, when he was 14-8 with a 4.21 ERA overall. Silva showed similar inconsistency in 2004. While he had a 1.72 ERA in September, a 3.76 June ERA, and a 4.02 April ERA, he also had a 5.46 ERA in July, a 5.14 ERA in May, and a 4.98 ERA in August.

Currently, Silva has been a little better than he was in 2004, as his ERA is lower and he has allowed a .288 BAA, versus .310 in 2004. He also is striking out a few more batters, as his 3.62 K/9 rate is his highest since he was a reliever in 2003. Therefore, if this is the Silva we get the rest of the year, he will be doing far more than many, including myself, expected of him. He likely will never repeat his impressive 2005 season, but even if he is inconsistent, he can be a fine contributor to the team over the course of the season and will be more than worth the $4 million we are paying him this year (considering that money that was shelled out to pitchers like Jeff Weaver). This is precisely what he showed that last night.

National Failure

Despite what seemed to be an important victory over the Angels Wednesday, the Twins managed to lose to one of the worst teams in baseball last night in what was nearly a blowout loss. Sadly, if not for Ramon Ortiz's six solid innings and a late three-run home run by Jason Kubel, the box score might have looked significantly uglier.

Ortiz's relief outing was a particular bright spot, as he followed Carlos Silva's ugly start. In three innings, Silva gave up nine hits, seven runs, and two walks while striking out only one. The Nationals, in all fairness, do have some good hitters, as Dmitri Young has been a good hitter so far this year (never mind the defense), Christian Guzman has been hitting over .300, and Ryan Church and Ryan Zimmerman are budding young stars. However, Silva wasn't giving up groundballs through the hole, but rather lots of well-hit balls and line drives.

Ortiz, on the other hand, threw one less pitch then Silva but went six innings, handling his mop-up role by giving the Twins some solid innings and giving the bullpen a rest. In those six innings, Ortiz gave up six hits and one run while striking out three and walking none. I'm not going to claim some great turnaround for Ortiz because of a mop-up job against the Nationals, but he certainly took care of business gave the Twins a chance as much as possible.

With that said, really the only offensive play that stood out for the Twins was Kubel's three-run home run. After the Twins had been pathetically shut down for six innings by Jason Simontacchi, Kubel hit a Morneau-esque blast to the upper deck in right field, giving more hope that Kubel is ultimately breaking out of his early season drought. As for the Twins, they managed 10 hits, but didn't score until the late innings, as they gave up opportunities early on. The other good news, despite the loss, is that Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter both went 2-for-4, with Hunter picking up an RBI. Both Morneau and Hunter struggled through the last road trip, so it would be very good news if they both started hitting again.

Good thing for the Twins that Johan Santana is on the mound today, taking on former Twins farmhand Levale Speigner. Speigner has been awful this year and only recently was placed in the rotation. On the year, he is 1-2 with a 9.10 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP in 28 2/3 innings, having given up 44 hits and 19 walks while striking out only 14. When Speigner entered the rotation from the bullpen, he had a 3.77 ERA, but since then, he has made four starts and given up 23 runs in 14 1/3 innings. In other words, this should be a guaranteed victory for the Twins. Should be...

6540 Seconds

That would be the amount of time it took Oakland As starter Joe Blanton to completely dominant the Minnesota Twins offense. In more practical terms, it took one hour and forty-nine minutes for the game to be over and it felt even quicker. A total of 10 Twins hitters got out within one or two pitches while they managed a meager three hits. Of those three hits, one was a classic infield single by Luis Castillo to begin the game and the others were a second Castillo hit and a hard line-drive single off the bat of Justin Morneau. The only other well-hit balls of the night were off the bat of Torii Hunter for outs. It was, in other words, yet another game filled with offensive ineptitude that hopefully did not set back the Twins offense from the last few weeks of success.

As I suggested in yesterday's post, there was a high opportunity for another pitching duel and that is precisely what happened. As bad as the Twins offense was and as good as Joe Blanton was against them, Carlos Silva was very successful in his eight innings against the As offense as well. In those eight innings, the Twins first complete game of the year, Silva gave up only one run, five hits, and one walk while striking out two. It is important to point out that the one run Silva gave up came on a Shannon Stewart double play in the sixth inning after singles by Mark Ellis and Jason Kendall.

Silva looked very good, as he not only lowered his ERA to 3.86, but also showed a good sinker as evidenced by the 16-5 GB/FB ratio he had last night. Sadly, Silva doesn't have much to show for his overall good start this year, as he has a 3-6 record and the worst run support in the AL.

The run of pitching battles won't end today, as Johan Santana will take on Chad Gaudin, who has had a very successful year so far with a 5-1 record and a stand-out 2.32 ERA. With that, we may get treated to another pitching duel that hopefully ends up in a Twins series win.

The Justin Morneau Show

Sometimes it's scary to think about where the Twins' offense would be without Justin Morneau. Yesterday, as the team toiled away unsuccessfully against Blue Jays starter A.J. Burnett, Morneau was the sole offensive star and he pretty much single-handedly willed the team to victory. I'd say those are the defining characteristics of an MVP.

Burnett, who possesses some devastating stuff, was baffling the Twins' hitters yesterday. The 30-year-old righthander allowed four runs (three earned) while pitching all eight innings in a loss against the Twins. He struck out eight and walked three. Burnett gave up just three hits, but two of them came off the bat of Morneau, who was also responsible for all the Twins' scoring in the game. In the third inning, Morneau came up with the bases loaded and hit a high chopper to the pitcher's mound. Even if Burnett had fielded the ball cleanly and made an accurate throw to first, Morneau probably would have beaten out the play and driven in a run. However, Burnett rushed his throw and it sailed over the first baseman's head, allowing Morneau to move to second and allowing another run to score. This gave the Twins a 2-1 lead. Morneau later extended that lead to 4-1 when he hit a towering two-run homer into the upper-deck in the sixth inning. That was it for the Twins' offense.

Fortunately, thanks to a great pitching performance from Carlos Silva, four runs would be plenty in this game. The Twins really needed Silva to step up and pitch deep into yesterday's game after Saturday night's 13-inning marathon had depleted most of the bullpen. Silva answered the call, pitching into the eighth inning while allowing just two runs. After he left the game to a standing ovation, Juan Rincon and Joe Nathan came in to take care of the final five outs and the Twins got their victory. The series win was the Twins' first at home since their season-opening sweep of the Orioles.

The Twins seem to be coming out of their funk and are playing more like the team I expected them to be this season. The offense has gained some consistency (they've scored 4+ runs in each of their past nine games) and should only get better once Joe Mauer returns, which could take place this week. Meanwhile, the rotation is looking pretty good. Johan Santana has been dominant, Boof Bonser has been impressive, Scott Baker has looked good in his two starts, and Silva made a big statement with his much-needed outstanding performance yesterday. Of course, the major weakness remains Ramon Ortiz, but it sounds like he's headed for the bullpen. The Twins don't need the guy who comes up and replaces him (likely Kevin Slowey) to step in and start pitching like Liriano, but if that player is able to pitch relatively well, this could become a very strong rotation.

In my mind, there are two major things that the Twins need to start doing consistently in order to work their way into contention: win at home, and win against divisional opponents. They haven't been doing either of those things very well this year, but the Toronto series was a step in the right direction toward the first goal and they can take another big step toward both goals by winning their series against the White Sox which kicks off at the Metrodome this afternoon.

Texas Massacre

Many people predicted that the Twins would have a hard time competing this season because of the weak back part of their rotation -- namely: Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Carlos Silva. In April, Ortiz and Silva were surprisingly solid while Ponson managed to show some promise. May, however, has been a different story. These three pitchers have been everything we'd feared they would be, and the Twins have gone 1-9 in the 10 games they've started this month. Ponson was released just over a week ago after struggling through seven starts, and now Ortiz looks like he may be next in line after posting an 11.74 ERA and 2.28 WHIP over his past four outings. Silva held out longer than either of the other two, but now it looks like he too may be falling apart.

Silva got the start against the Rangers yesterday in a game the Twins ended up losing 14-4. He lasted just 4 1/3 innings while giving up nine hits and seven earned runs. His ERA rose to 4.47 and his record dropped to 2-5. After Silva came out of the game, rookie Julio DePaula very well may have earned his ticket back to Rochester, putting the game well out of reach with an atrocious outing. DePaula was shelled for seven runs (six earned) on six hits and three walks in just one inning. Silva and DePaula combined to let in 14 runs on 15 hits, three walks and three home runs.

It is becoming increasingly evident that the Twins cannot be a winning ballclub if they continue to start Ortiz and Silva in 40 percent of their games. I wrote recently that Silva's early success seemed somewhat sustainable and I maintain that he could probably be a serviceable No. 5 pitcher in this rotation, but when coupled with Ortiz his struggles become magnified. Meanwhile, Kevin Slowey holds a 1.76 ERA down in Triple-A and Glen Perkins (who will be out for a couple weeks after injuring a muscle last night) has posted a 3.80 out of the Twins' bullpen. There's no guarantee that either of these pitchers would be able to step into the Twins' rotation and light the world on fire, and even if they did there's no guarantee that the Twins would become a competitive team because they play in such a difficult division and because their offense has proven to be so dreadfully inconsistent. Yet, installing a Slowey or a Perkins would at least give fans a promising young player to get excited about watching every five days. Right now, it's becoming difficult to look forward to games started by Ortiz and Silva which have almost literally become guaranteed losses.

Another Dismal Offensive Effort

Yesterday, I wrote that I believed the offense was showing signs of life. Perhaps I was wrong. That, or the Twins and their fans should pray that the team no longer has to face any left-handers this year. That isn't about to happen though. As last night showed, against a pitcher like C.C. Sabathia, the Twins simply aren't doing very much at all. When comments like "Lew Ford was called up to give the team some power from the right side" can be made about your offense, something is clearly wrong.

However, as I've said in recent posts, the offensive ineptitude really isn't news to anyone paying attention. Instead, the new development is with struggling pitchers. In Tuesday night's game, it was Ramon Ortiz who struggled, lasting only one inning. Last night, it was Carlos Silva. Silva did pitch six innings, but he also gave up five runs, seven hits, and walked three while only striking out two.

Silva didn't give up too many hits, at least by his standards, but his control was not great at all and ten base-runners is simply too many to comfortably allow against the Cleveland Indians offense. His ERA is still good at 3.56, but this was really Silva's first truly bad start of 2007.

Worse than Silva, though, was Dennys Reyes, who continued to provide evidence that his 2006 season was a giant fluke. If Silva had little control, Reyes had no concept of a strike zone. After entering in the seventh, he quickly gave up a hit and two walks before getting two outs, giving up a run, and giving up the mound to Pat Neshek. True, a 6.00 ERA in May isn't death for a reliever, but he has walked 9 batters in 12 innings while giving up 16 hits, giving him a terrible 2.08 WHIP. He still has struck out 10 hitters, but thats nothing new for Reyes' career. He has a career 1.63 K/BB ratio and a 1.43 K/BB ratio this year.

In 2005, Reyes posted a 35/32 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 innings and in 2002, it was 59/45 in 82 2/3 innings. In other words, it would certainly seem that the old Reyes has returned. If that's the truth, the Twins need to be worried and need to consider making a move to bring up a guy like Ricky Barrett.

Lastly in bad pitching news, Jesse Crain's diagnosis appears to be very bad. In his post-game news conference, Ron Gardenhire noted that a doctor had diagnosed Crain with a torn labrum and a torn rotator cuff. The Twins will seek a second opinion, but regardless, Crain will not be out for only 15 days. In fact, it's likely that he'll now join Francisco Liriano in sitting out the seaon after surgery. If you recall, Brad Radke had a very similar injury and generally, it takes a year or more to return from such surgery.

As mentioned in my last post, Crain's loss is not the worst thing that can happen to the Twins, but it certainly creates a void in their bullpen, which has been key to almost all the success they've had this year. Despite Jorge DePaula's scoreless inning major-league debut, replacing a good Crain will be difficult.

The best news for the Twins? Today, Johan Santana is on the mound, giving the Twins the best chance they've had to win all series. Too bad they go up against Fausto Carmona, who's pretty hot right now. Hopefully, the Twins' bad luck leaves with me, as I take off to vacation in Virginia for a few days. Mr. Nelson should take over posting, unless he cannot secure a hard-line in Brewerville. In that case, I may have to return sooner.

The Silva Lining

Yesterday's 3-0 loss at the hands of the White Sox dropped the Twins' record to .500 and marked their third consecutive series loss. It was another frustrating juncture in a season that has been marred by injuries, incompetent offense and inconsistent pitching. However, lost in yesterday's disaster of a game and in all of the maladies that have overcome the Twins as a team so far this year has been the standout play of one pitcher who has far exceeded expectations. That pitcher is the man who took the hard-luck loss in yesterday's contest: Carlos Silva.

Like many fans, I wasn't a big fan of the Twins' decision to pick up Silva's 2007 option following his disastrous '06 campaign. He was arguably the worst starting pitcher in the American League last year, and the way he was hammered in Spring Training did little to encourage fans that he was on his way back to 2005 form. Yet, much to my bewilderment, Silva has been the Twins' most consistent starting pitcher through the first six weeks of the season. Boof Bonser got off to a slow start and has struggled with his control, Ramon Ortiz has apparently begun to revert to his more recognizable form, Sidney Ponson has been fairly awful, and even the great Johan Santana has seen some ups and downs. But through it all, Silva has given the team a chance to win every time he's gone out. In seven starts, he has yet to allow more than three runs in a game, and yesterday he picked up his fourth Quality Start by going six innings and allowing three runs.

Silva's overall numbers on the season aren't overly impressive, but they do give some encouraging signs. Even though he didn't record a strikeout yesterday, he is averaging 4.3 K/9 IP, which is not necessarily great but is definitely a step up from the rates he's posted in his three previous seasons with the Twins (3.37 in '04, 3.39 in '05, 3.49 in '06). Opponents are batting .285 against Silva, which again isn't outstanding but is much closer to the number he posted in his great 2005 season (.290) than in his miserable 2006 season (.324).

The largest and most interesting change in Silva's game so far this year is that he is no longer relying on ground balls to get outs. Yesterday Silva put together a solid start despite getting more outs in the air (9) than on the ground (8), and that's not exactly out of the ordinary for him this year. His ground ball-to-fly ball ratio on the season now stands almost even at 62-to-54 (good for a 1.20 ratio). That's even lower than his ratio from last season (1.29) and down considerably from the rates he posted in 2004 (1.58) and 2005 (1.55). It also worth noting that while Silva was once heavily reliant on forcing opponents to ground into double plays -- he did it 28 times in '04 and 34 times in '05 -- yet that no longer seems to be a significant part of his game. Last season he induced just 16 ground ball double plays, and so far this year he's induced just four.

So while he's not allowing hits at an insane rate, Silva's peripherals look a whole lot more like the deplorable 2006 version than the successful 2005 version. And yet, the results have been very good. What is he doing differently? From my perspective, it seems that Silva is working outside of the strike zone more. It seems he has come to terms with the fact that his sinker just isn't as effective as it was in 2005. Last year, Silva didn't adjust for this issue and he continued pumping the ball into the strike zone constantly, which was basically just batting practice for opposing lineups. This year, he's worked on improving his change-up and he's pitching outside of the zone more. As a result, he's racking up much higher pitch counts and his 2.14 BB/9 rate -- while not bad -- is considerably higher than any he's posted in his previous three seasons with the Twins. At the same time, he's causing opposing hitters to miss more often and he's not giving up home runs at a ridiculous rate. Because of these factors, I think that Silva's success may be sustainable even though some of his peripherals would suggest that it's not.

Sometimes, when your team is playing as poorly as the Twins are right now, you have to look for some positives so as not to get too depressed. I think the way Silva has been pitching so far this year has to be seen as a major positive. And while the Twins didn't even resemble a major-league offense in getting shut out on 98 pitches by Jose Contreras yesterday, Silva went out and pitched a pretty good ballgame for the seventh time this season. Unfortunately, for the second time in those seven outings, his impressive work against the White Sox will go into the books as a loss because his offense could not provide a single run in support.

The Punches Don't Land Again

If I was a little more like my co-blogger, I'd make a big rant here based on the performance last night's 2-0 loss to te Red Sox. However, it isn't worth landing when the symptoms simply haven't changed. The Twins problems last night are no different then they were Thursday, Wednesday, or in other recent follies.

Following that line, the Twins promptly scored no runs yesterday, had four hits, and did nothing to support a very good pitching performance from Carlos Silva. Up against Boston's tough offense, Silva went seven innings, gave up only five hits, walked two, and struck out one. The only run he gave up was a solo home run to David Ortiz, but it's awful hard to hold that against him. After all, through six starts, Silva is 2-2 with a 2.75 ERA.

As for the "offense," not surprisingly, Torii Hunter basically provided the only offense of the night, going 2-for-3 to bring his hitting streak to 19 games and his average to .340, while stealing his seventh base (and getting caught his second time as well). Hunter has a .650 slugging percentage, which puts his current OPS as 1.023. While Hunter continued to slug away in the midst of what could be a huge season, the only other hits came from Joe Mauer and Jason Bartlett.

Justin Morneau struggled again, as he did Thursday night, going 0-3 while drawing a walk to bring his season line to .263/.341/.482. Morneau certainly hasn't been terrible and he hasn't looked as bad as he did at the start of last season, but he also doesn't look as comfortable in the batter's box as he did in the second half of last year. He's going to have to pick it up here in May, as the pressure begins to mount on the middle of the lineup to get it done. Also, as much as I want to have Jason Tyner's at-bats kept to a minimum, he certainly as a better option than the pathetic Josh Rabe. Rabe should not be getting any starts in important games, like ones against Boston.

The good news for Twins fans is that the Twins have their best chance to break out of their offensive funk and get some scoring done today, as Boston's awful fifth starter Julian Tarvarez takes the mound against Johan Santana. This should be a win for the Twins, but considering how good they made Jae Seo look recently, I'm not hedging my bets just yet.

Shift of Power

After letting mediocre (or worse) starting pitchers like Jorge De La Rosa, Jeremy Sowers, Fausto Carmona, Odalis Perez and Zack Greinke pitch deep into games with dominating performances against them over the past week, the Twins jumped all over 2006 AL Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander yesterday, scoring five runs (three earned) on eight hits with a walk and no strikeouts before chasing the hard-throwing righthander after three innings. In all, the Twins scored 11 runs against the Tigers' staff, picking up their third straight victory and guaranteeing an important early-season series victory in Detroit.

The Twins' offensive outburst was unexpected to say the least, seeing as how they had struggled as of late and Verlander had entered the game with a 2.08 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the season. Several Twins had encouraging days at the plate. Justin Morneau, who had struggled a bit in the past two series against Cleveland and Kansas City, went 3-for-4 with a double and his sixth home run. Joe Mauer, who put the Twins ahead on Friday night with a pinch-hit two-run single, also had three hits and hit his first homer of the season off of reliever Fernando Rodney in the ninth. Nick Punto raised his batting average above .200 with a pair of hits, while Jason Kubel went 2-for-5 with three RBI. Torii Hunter singled twice, extending his hitting streak to 13 games.

Meanwhile, Carlos Silva picked up his second victory. He was far from dominant, allowing 10 hits over six innings of work, but he gave up just three runs and was credited with another quality start. The bullpen was very solid, as Pat Neshek, Dennys Reyes and Glen Perkins allowed just one hit and needed only 32 pitches between them to work through the final three innings.

After losing five of seven games against the Royals and Indians over the past week, the Twins have come into Detroit and won their first two against the Tigers, and now they have a shot at the sweep with Johan Santana taking the mound against Mike Maroth tomorrow afternoon. I would say the Twins will have a hard time winning this game against a junk-throwing lefty like Maroth, but as unpredictable as they've been lately, who knows?

Shut-Out in the Cold

I would've been pretty unhappy with yesterday's game had I not been watching it with a bunch of friendly blog luminaries and knowledgable Twins fans while getting buzzed off a couple tall beers. Thanks to those circumstances, I was only mildly bothered by a baseball game that was about as unappealing to a Twins fan as possible.

After starting the season 3-0, the Twins suffered their first loss as they came out flat and fell 3-0 to the White Sox on a very cold afternoon in Chicago. Carlos Silva was surprisingly solid, allowing just one run on five hits and a walk over five innings, but his hefty Latino counterpart on the pitching staff wasn't quite as effective and the Twins' offense was essentially non-existent. The Twins' bats could muster just three hits in the game, one coming on an infield single by Luis Castillo and the other two coming off the bat of Michael Cuddyer, and Dennys Reyes had the first ugly outing by a Twins reliever on the season. Reyes entered the game in the eighth inning with the Twins trailing 1-0 and served up a homer to the first batter he faced, Juan Uribe. Reyes then failed to scoop up a playable Scott Podsednik bunt, allowing Podsednik to reach first. After Darin Erstad had sacrificed Podsednik to second, Reyes tossed a pick-off throw into center field, and Podsednik was able to score all the way from second thank to a lazy effort by Luis Castillo.

It was that type of day for the Twins. Their best chance to score came in the second inning, when they loaded the bases with one out. At that point, Jason Tyner hit a relatively routine pop-up to shallow center, but Cuddyer -- who was at third -- inexplicably ran home and crossed the plate, realizing all-too-late that the ball been caught and being easily doubled off at third. The offense was able to draw four walks against Sox starter Javier Vazquez in his 6 2/3 innings of work, but they managed only one hit against him, which is disappointing considering that Vazquez is generally quite hittable.

This all made for a tough game to watch, but fortunately the company made it worthwhile. Whether I was sending snarky anti-Cuddyer comments down to the other end of the table where SBG and Gleeman sat, or watching Corey Ettinger knock his chair to the ground in disgust at a Nick Punto strikeout, I enjoyed the afternoon and hope we can do something like it again soon. Kudos to Star Trib blogger Howard Sinker for putting the event together.

That Sinking Feeling

Sidney Ponson's last spring start yesterday wasn't exactly pretty. He allowed 10 hits and five runs (one unearned) in five innings, while walking one and striking out three. His groundball-to-flyball ratio looked good at 9-3, but the results weren't all that positive. His spring training ERA ends at 4.29, but the inconsistency of his starts reminds us of something: trusting sinkerballers to be successful can be a dangerous game.

The Twins are taking their chances this year with Ponson and Carlos Silva. Both have had one particularly good season and one decent season and both were terrible last year. (I'm not counting Silva's two relief seasons in Philadelphia, since we are discussing starters here.) Inconsistency from sinkerballers, of course, is nothing new.

I think there are two recent examples of success and failure with trying to bring back such pitchers from struggles: Derek Lowe and Jason Marquis. Naturally, when it comes to sinkers, no one can compete with 2006 NL Cy Young winner Brandon Webb, but Webb is the exception and he's yet to really have a bad season. As for Lowe, he's the most positive of the two cases.

Lowe in his career is 100-82 with a 3.81 ERA (as well as 85 saves, a product of his days as the Boston closer) in 189 starts. In 2002, Lowe contended for the Cy Young when he went 21-8 with a 2.58 ERA. Lowe didn't do that on pure luck or anything, as opponents .211/.266/.302 against him with only 12 home runs. Lowe also walked only 48 in 219 2/3 innings.

Lowe followed with an average campaign in 2003, going 17-7 with a 4.47 (remember, the Red Sox had a pretty good offense that year). The following year, Lowe hit rock bottom, going 14-12 with a 5.42 ERA. Lowe gave up 224 hits in 182 2/3 innings, a very Silva-esque year. Lowe managed to save his year by having a great postseason and got a nice contract from the Dodgers in the offseason. He's been very good for the Dodgers the last two years, going 28-23 with a 3.62 ERA. He's pitched an average of 220 innings in those two years. Of course, it helps that Chavez Ravine is a wonderful pitcher's park, but home runs were never Lowe's problem, as he gave up only 15 in his worst year and in fact, gave up a career-high 28 in 2005, his first year with the Dodgers.

As for Marquis, his story should provide more caution to trusting sinkerballers. Marquis was a highly-touted prospect for the Braves, getting his first call-up in 2000, pitching 23 1/3 relief innings with a 5.01 ERA. The next year, Marquis appeared in 38 games and got 16 starts, going 5-6 with a 3.48 ERA. His future looked good, as he struck out 6.82 per 9 IP, a good number for a sinkerballer. However, Marquis started only 22 times in 2002, going 8-9 with a 5.04 ERA in 114 1/3 innings. In 2003, he was injured and complained about spending the majority of time in relief, as he was had an awful 5.53 ERA in 40 2/3 innings. He was traded that offseason to the Cardinals, who saw him as a reclaimation project for pitching guru Dave Duncan. (You'll note they did the same with Ponson last year and that didn't work out so well.)

Marquis would have his best year in 2004, going 15-7 in 201 1/3 innings with a 3.71 ERA. Hitters still knocked him around though, hitting .275/.339/.430. He followed up in 2005 with a solid year, going 13-14 with a 4.13 ERA. After an average year, he was absolutely terrible last year, nearly as bad as Silva. In 194 1/3 innings, he gave up 221 hits, had a 6.02 ERA, gave up 35 homers, and let hitters knock an astounding .289/.364/.509 against him. Basically, hitters lit up like Michael Cuddyer. (For reference, opposing batters hit .324/.354/.538 off Silva, with 246 hits and 38 homers in 180 1/3 innings. Sorry for making everyone remember just how bad it was...)

Despite this, Marquis got a three-year, $21 million contract from the Cubs. Like the Twins, because of one good year (and a decent year), the Cubs decided to take a chance on the "veteran" Marquis. The pattern is the same. In 2005, Silva had his best year, going 9-8 with a 3.44 ERA and that great 71/9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 188 1/3 innings. The year before, he was had a pretty good year, going 14-8 with a 4.21 ERA. Likewise, Ponson had a decent year in 2002, going 7-9 with a 4.09 ERA and had his best year in 2003, going 17-12 with a 3.75 ERA. Each year, he treaded the fine line, as opponents still managed a .258 average against him. He followed with a drinking problem and bad enough pitching to get his contract terminated by the Orioles. Last year, the Cardinals tried the same thing the Twins are now, releasing Ponson after he went 4-4 with a 5.24 ERA in 13 starts, sending him to New York, where he lasted only 16 1/3 innings. At the end of the year, he had gone 4-5 with a 6.25 ERA in 85 innings. Nothing pretty.

So what's the point with all these stats? Not to overwhelm anyone, but just to show a simple point: sinkerballers always walk a fine line and a dangerous one at that when trusting them with the ball. What is so confusing is that a former scout like Terry Ryan should recognize this. Having two of these guys in the rotation could mean anything. Sure, they could both "revert" to their former selves, under the guiding of pitching coach Rick Anderson. Or, more likely, they could be terrible again. For every story like Lowe, or even Webb, their is a guy like Marquis, who probably isn't worth the trouble.

Twinkie Links

* As many of you know, the 25-man roster was finalized yesterday and J.D. Durbin was placed on waivers. He was claimed by the Diamondbacks. Just as I predicted earlier this week, a good arm like Durbin was let go in order to make way for a third-string catcher -- in this case Chris Heintz -- to be kept. It was a repeat of the Corky Miller/Michael Restovich debacle from 2005. Quite frankly, it was ridiculous. Once again I reiterate that, although Durbin may never amount to much, that really isn't the point. It's highly doubtful Heintz will do much of anything for the team, but he will be there instead of a useful arm or even another bat with some semblence of competence like Josh Rabe. Not smart. But, then again, this wasn't much of a race, as Durbin's 11.25 ERA along with 16 hits and five walks in eight innings made the battle for the last spot between Rabe and Heintz.

* Carlos Silva threw five scoreless innings against the Reds last night, giving up two hits and striking out two and walking none. He also induced nine groundball outs. I'm sure that Ron Gardenhire and Terry Ryan might think this vindicates their decision. But, clearly, five innings doesn't make up for what happened last year nor does it erase all the previous awful spring starts. Previously, we were hoping and praying to see as little of Silva as possible. As ridiculous as it sounds, apparently the Twins took five innings last night as a sign, ignoring his previous disaster of a start and deciding that he was so good that they are re-thinking their plan to make him the No. 5 starter. If that happens, some kind of protest movement or boycott needs to be started. This can't be happening.....

* Scot Shields signed a three-year, $14.6 million extension with the Angels. Shields is a good comp for Juan Rincon and what he might possibly get for a contract after he is out from the Twins' control. Rincon will make $2 million this season and has one year of arbitration remaining after this year. Both he and Shields are right-handed setup men who rack up appearances like few other pitcher in the league. They also put up fairly similar numbers, with each generally posting great ERAs and strikeout rates. If the Twins decide to try and negotiate an extension, those are probably the numbers they will be looking at.

* Here's an interesting story on Doug Mientkiewicz from a New York paper. When it comes down to it, Doug is a pretty interesting interview. And, of course, he has interesting things to say about being with the Twins.

* Many popular bloggers (notably SBG and Gleeman) find Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan to be a source of amousement most of the time. However, I'll grant him that his article on Garza being sent down wasn't bad and his most recent one on Joe Nathan deserves some credit. Heck, crazy stats like opposing batting average were even mentioned. Top Jimmy, Shecky Souhan... call him whatever you want. He is showing signs of improvement.

Winner By Default

Much to no one's surprise, the Twins re-assigned Matt Garza to minor-league camp yesterday, assuring Carlos Silva the fifth spot in the rotation to start the season. Garza pitched well this spring, posting a 1.50 ERA while allowing nine hits, walking five and striking out seven over 12 innings. Silva was of course horrible, posting an 11.02 ERA while allowing more than two base-runners per inning.

I feel bad for Garza. He came into this spring with the mindset that a spot in the rotation was his, and he wasn't going to do anything to lose it. And really, he didn't do anything to lose it. He pitched well. Of course, the Twins didn't really give him much of a chance to prove he belonged. He started only one game (Silva will make his fifth start tonight) and never pitched more than three innings in an outing.

As much as this move frustrates me, I can see how it is at least somewhat defensible. The fifth starter for the Twins will probably only make three starts in April, and Garza needs regular action early in the season. Furthermore, if the Twins had gone with Garza only to have him struggle badly or run into an injury, they would lack options to replace him since Silva would be gone and Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins probably need a little more time in the minors.

I realize I'm toting the company line here. Don't get me wrong, I think you need to go with the guy that gives you the best chance to win, and without question that would appear to be Garza. All I'm saying is that this probably isn't the worst thing in the world, assuming the Twins don't handle the situation the way they handled the Castro/Bartlett debacle last year. If we reach the end of April and Silva is getting shelled while Garza is tearing up Triple-A, and the Twins do nothing, I'll be furious. But every indication is that Silva's leash is fairly short at this point. It seems that Ron Gardenhire has backed off from heaping the absurd praise on Silva that he's given him in the past and that he gave Castro early last season. Gardy has said that if Silva continues to struggle, the team will "make an adjustment." Hopefully that's the case

As it stands though, the Twins will apparently open the season with a potentially disastrous rotation. Behind Johan Santana, we'll be watching Boof Bonser, Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Silva. I'm hoping the latter three can find a way to recapture the form they showed earlier in their careers. Even more, I'm hoping that if they can't, the Twins will not stand idly by and watch their 2007 season go to waste.

Victory At Last!

Spring training game results mean nothing, but it was still nice to see the Twins get into the win column with a 4-2 victory over the Devil Rays yesterday after starting their exhibition schedule on a five-game winless streak. Carlos Silva got the start and posted some encouraging numbers, allowing just one hit and no runs over three innings while getting four outs by the way of groundball and three by the way of strikeout. This should be an interesting spring for Silva, who comes in looking to find the formula for success that made him an outstanding pitcher in 2005. He got shelled in his first start last Thursday, but yesterday's game provides a good reminder that little can be based on one spring outing.

On a negative note, Matt Garza faced just two batters in the fourth inning before having to leave yesterday's game with an apparent aggravation of the strained neck that has seemingly bothered him since the start of spring training. Joe Christensen relayed a message from Cranky Pat Reusse indicating that the injury "was just a stiff neck and the team is just being cautious." Hopefully that's the case.

Finally, today marks the one-year anniversary of the death of Twins legend Kirby Puckett. Christensen penned a nice article for the Star Tribune about the man Puck mentored, Torii Hunter, and Hunter's mentorship of the possible heir in center field, Denard Span.