On the same day the Twins took out their offensive frustrations on a pitcher making his major-league debut, they also took out their frustrations with Sidney Ponson's horrible performance up to this point by designating the righthanded pitcher for assignment. Ponson had two straight terrible starts and it was finally enough for Terry Ryan to admit that Ponson may have been a mistake.
In light of Mr. Nelson's Sunday prophecy, the Twins not only released Ponson, but also shuffled the lineup. Jason Bartlett hit second, Michael Cuddyer moved up to the third spot, Justin Morneau batted cleanup in front of Torii Hunter, Jason Kubel hit in the sixth spot, and Nick Punto dropped to the number nine spot.
Was this the reason for the Twins 22-hit, 16-run outburst? It may have had something to do with it. Moving Bartlett up has always seemed reasonably, as he makes for a solid number two hitter. Moving Punto down isn't a bad move, as he is struggling with his average while he maintains the best discipline of active Twins. (Joe Mauer has shown better plate discipline, but by numbers, Punto has more walks and a higher Isolated Discipline of .094, just a tick above Mauer's .093).
However, moving Cuddyer to the third spot was most interesting and it seemed to play out well. Torii Hunter needs to be in a spot where he can swing away and drive in some runs and the fifth spot is a good position for that. Though Cuddyer doesn't have the patience or power of Mauer or Morneau, he is well suited to replace Mauer while he is out. The Twins do best having Morneau's big bat in the cleanup spot, so this might be a move Ron Gardenhire wants to stick with for the time being.
After all, the 3-4-5 of Cuddyer, Morneau, and Hunter 9-for-16 with 11 RBI and seven runs scored. Of course, Hunter himself had seven RBI on two home runs and a two-run double all by himself. That gives Hunter 29 RBI and a .618 slugging percentage on the year, both impressive feats for him given that he often struggles to start the season.
The best news for the Twins lately, which has gone relatively unnoticed, is that Mike Redmond has been on fire since replacing Mauer as starting catcher. Redmond has hit .500 (13-for-26) in his past seven games and with his first home run since 2005 last night, he's now hitting .307/.351/.409 with 12 RBI. Once again, Redmond is looking like the best backup catcher in baseball. If he can keep up the production in the seventh spot while Mauer remains on the disabled list, Redmond can at least help keep the ship afloat.
Of course, offense was the big story, but not the only story (besides ditching Sir Sid). Boof Bonser wasn't fantastic, as he gave up four runs in five innings while walking three, but he did strike out six to give him 45 on the year while also picking up his first win. It also didn't hurt that after a shaky past couple games, the bullpen pitched four scoreless innings, with Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, and Joe Nathan giving up two hits and striking out six in those four frames.
With an off day today, the Twins prepare to start a series with the Indians tomorrow night. Hopefully, the 16 runs they scored against the Tigers can serve as a catalyst as they go up against another good offense with a sloppy bullpen (Joe Borowski anyone?).
Showing posts with label ponson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ponson. Show all posts
Monday, May 14, 2007
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Is There a Light?
Following a sad series against the Boston Red Sox at home this last weekend and the news that Joe Mauer is on the 15-day DL, some provocative questions need to be asked. No, I am not trying to ascertain deep philosophical answers. Instead, I'm looking for the answer to a much more simple question: Is there any hope for the Twins with Mauer on the DL?
Mauer is going to missed big-time with the upcoming series against White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Brewers, and most likely the Rangers, if not the late May series against the Blue Jays. The Rangers and Blue Jays are losing teams right now, but either one could easily give the Twins trouble. After all, these Twins couldn't hit Jae Seo, Julian Tavarez, or Odalis Perez recently.
Even if the Rangers offense continues to struggle (.241 average right now), they are still hitting with plenty of power. And this is all ignoring the three series that Mauer's absence will hurt the worst: Tigers, Brewers, and Indians. The White Sox are only a .500 team right now, but both the Indians and Brewers are leading their divisions, while the Tigers obviously have been pretty good themselves.
What will it take to win? Other than what my associate suggested yesterday, which is the resurgence of Justin Morneau, is to hope that Micheal Cuddyer has a big month, to hope that Torii Hunter doesn't slow down significantly, and to make some serious moves. After all, the Twins have a lineup going out there that has gone homerless in 183 consecutive plate appearances. What kind of moves? As we have discussed before, Terry Ryan is more than a little cautious when it comes to trades, so it's hard to expect him to trade Scott Baker or a different pitching prospect for the offensive upgrade the Twins desperately need, even if they've been treating Baker recently like a C-grade prospect. At this point, with Baker's stock high and the Twins seemingly unwilling to give him another shot, it would make sense to deal him for a bat.
Obviously, a plan like that would be great for the Twins, but it's probably not going to happen, at least not soon. However, there is a "trade" that Ryan could easily make to improve their chances this month: Sidney Ponson for Baker or Kevin Slowey. The Twins don't really have many teams move to make, since they have no catching prospects ready to replace Mauer and, although Dennys Reyes hasn't been very good this year, Mike Venafro or Ricky Barrett likely wouldn't be better.
However, Baker or Slowey, or even Matt Garza, would certainly be better than Ponson has been thus far. This offseason, when the Twins signed Ponson, my sentiment was that they were screwing around and wasting time they didn't have. The experiment would go on for a while, he wouldn't do so well, and the Twins would lose some games they couldn't afford to lose. That's basically what has happened.
Sure, you could say that Ponson has been good recently (and the Twins certainly have, as Gardy remarked after the game that Ponson "did his job" and that he made "one mistake really ended up costing him," referring to his throwing error), as he's only given up four earned runs in his last 12 innings for a 2.92 ERA. However, even with a low ERA in those innings, Ponson still posted a 1.54 WHIP and .277 OBA, allowing 19 baserunners. Frankly, a 10/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio doesn't bode well and neither does a 22/15 strikeout-to-walk ratio overall.
I have to agree with Aaron Gleeman, who wrote in his post yesterday that the Ponson experiment needed to be ended, as Ponson isn't "fooling anyone" and has allowed 66 baserunners in 33 2/3 innings. That amounts to a 1.87 WHIP, good for worst in the AL and second worst in the bigs next to Anibal Sanchez's 2.07 WHIP. If those numbers don't stand out, then take a lot at the .338/.413/.563 line he's allowed to hitters. When you allow a .563 slugging percentage to opposing hitters, you are doing something wrong.
If the Twins want a chance, they'll have to make this move first. If they did make a move for a hitter, it would be best to try and get a DH with a short contract. We've mentioned Cliff Floyd as an option, but someone like Morgan Ensberg or even Jay Gibbons would help this anemic offense. (They also could have easily gotten Jack Cust if Oakland didn't snatch him up first.) Or, the Twins could make Seth Stohs happy and trade for Chris Coste, who is blocked in the Phillies' minor-league system and would solve the backup catcher dilemma while also providing a part-time DH who might potentially homer once in a while.
Those sound like desperation moves and they are. If the Twins want to stay competitive this month without the great Joe Mauer, desperation is going to have to become a theme for this team.
Mauer is going to missed big-time with the upcoming series against White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Brewers, and most likely the Rangers, if not the late May series against the Blue Jays. The Rangers and Blue Jays are losing teams right now, but either one could easily give the Twins trouble. After all, these Twins couldn't hit Jae Seo, Julian Tavarez, or Odalis Perez recently.
Even if the Rangers offense continues to struggle (.241 average right now), they are still hitting with plenty of power. And this is all ignoring the three series that Mauer's absence will hurt the worst: Tigers, Brewers, and Indians. The White Sox are only a .500 team right now, but both the Indians and Brewers are leading their divisions, while the Tigers obviously have been pretty good themselves.
What will it take to win? Other than what my associate suggested yesterday, which is the resurgence of Justin Morneau, is to hope that Micheal Cuddyer has a big month, to hope that Torii Hunter doesn't slow down significantly, and to make some serious moves. After all, the Twins have a lineup going out there that has gone homerless in 183 consecutive plate appearances. What kind of moves? As we have discussed before, Terry Ryan is more than a little cautious when it comes to trades, so it's hard to expect him to trade Scott Baker or a different pitching prospect for the offensive upgrade the Twins desperately need, even if they've been treating Baker recently like a C-grade prospect. At this point, with Baker's stock high and the Twins seemingly unwilling to give him another shot, it would make sense to deal him for a bat.
Obviously, a plan like that would be great for the Twins, but it's probably not going to happen, at least not soon. However, there is a "trade" that Ryan could easily make to improve their chances this month: Sidney Ponson for Baker or Kevin Slowey. The Twins don't really have many teams move to make, since they have no catching prospects ready to replace Mauer and, although Dennys Reyes hasn't been very good this year, Mike Venafro or Ricky Barrett likely wouldn't be better.
However, Baker or Slowey, or even Matt Garza, would certainly be better than Ponson has been thus far. This offseason, when the Twins signed Ponson, my sentiment was that they were screwing around and wasting time they didn't have. The experiment would go on for a while, he wouldn't do so well, and the Twins would lose some games they couldn't afford to lose. That's basically what has happened.
Sure, you could say that Ponson has been good recently (and the Twins certainly have, as Gardy remarked after the game that Ponson "did his job" and that he made "one mistake really ended up costing him," referring to his throwing error), as he's only given up four earned runs in his last 12 innings for a 2.92 ERA. However, even with a low ERA in those innings, Ponson still posted a 1.54 WHIP and .277 OBA, allowing 19 baserunners. Frankly, a 10/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio doesn't bode well and neither does a 22/15 strikeout-to-walk ratio overall.
I have to agree with Aaron Gleeman, who wrote in his post yesterday that the Ponson experiment needed to be ended, as Ponson isn't "fooling anyone" and has allowed 66 baserunners in 33 2/3 innings. That amounts to a 1.87 WHIP, good for worst in the AL and second worst in the bigs next to Anibal Sanchez's 2.07 WHIP. If those numbers don't stand out, then take a lot at the .338/.413/.563 line he's allowed to hitters. When you allow a .563 slugging percentage to opposing hitters, you are doing something wrong.
If the Twins want a chance, they'll have to make this move first. If they did make a move for a hitter, it would be best to try and get a DH with a short contract. We've mentioned Cliff Floyd as an option, but someone like Morgan Ensberg or even Jay Gibbons would help this anemic offense. (They also could have easily gotten Jack Cust if Oakland didn't snatch him up first.) Or, the Twins could make Seth Stohs happy and trade for Chris Coste, who is blocked in the Phillies' minor-league system and would solve the backup catcher dilemma while also providing a part-time DH who might potentially homer once in a while.
Those sound like desperation moves and they are. If the Twins want to stay competitive this month without the great Joe Mauer, desperation is going to have to become a theme for this team.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Jason Tyner: DH Savior?
In last night's game, one of the heroes in 9-1 Twins victory over the Devil Rays was Jason Tyner, who went 3-for-4 with a walk and an RBI. I admit, I'm not a very big fan of Tyner. I think there is good reason for that. He has a career .318 "slugging" percentage to go with patience Jacque Jones would be jealous of, with a .310 OBP. For a hitter with no power and no patience, he doesn't steal very many bases either, with just 56 over a span of 1100 at-bats, with 31 of those coming in his 2001 season.
He's also been a .319 hitter in 326 Minnesota at-bats. This year, he's been pretty solid, with a .346/.382/.442 line. Obviously it's quite unlikely that he'll keep up the average, but he has hit as many doubles this year (5) as he did all of last year. He also needs to show some more speed, as he has only stolen nine bases in his time in Minnesota.
However, if he continues to produce at a similar rate, he'll remain a good backup and even a decent option at DH. Consider the alternatives: right now, it's Jeff Cirillo, who has been hurt, and Josh Rabe, who has also has no power and does not hit anywhere near .300. If Jason Kubel isn't in the outfield, he remains a superior option and when Rondell White comes back, he'd remain the better option despite his overall poor numbers with the Twins.
Of course, Tyner wasn't the only story of last night, as Sidney Ponson had his best game in a Twins uniform. Ponson had a quality start, going seven innings, allowing only five hits, one run, and two walks while striking out five. However, the run he gave up was a home run to Delmon Young and Ponson gave up plenty of deep fly balls, allowing several warning track outs and posting a GB/FB ratio of 7/8. Getting lucky doesn't make me feel much better about Ponson and now he gets a longer lease in the rotation, as manager Ron Gardenhire was ecstatic about Ponson's start.
Gardenhire told reporters that, "As the game went along, (Ponson) made an adjustment. We talked to him about getting on top of the ball a little more and his last couple innings the ball was really diving. We were excited about that, his adjustment during the game more than anything else." I don't know that his ball was really diving that much if he gave up so many deep fly balls, but obviously Gardenhire is more than ready to put him out there again. Ponson's next start will come against the potent Boston offense and I have to imagine that isn't going to be too pretty.
The best news, though, is that the offense came out against the hapless Devil Ray pitching staff, as they scored nine runs on 17 hits, with Tyner, Luis Castillo and Joe Mauer collecting three hits apiece. Hopefully, the Twins can use this series against the Rays to heat up their bats before their weekend series against the Red Sox. However, the Twins did get some bad news, as Michael Cuddyer hurt himself on a baserunning tumble and now has a bruised back. Let's hope he gets back soon. If he misses a game, I'm all for Justin Morneau moving into the cleanup spot, as if that wasn't the obvious move.
Tonight, the Twins face the terrible Jae Seo and his 9.51 ERA. If the Twins play their cards right, maybe they can raise Seo's ERA to a Jeff Weaver level.
He's also been a .319 hitter in 326 Minnesota at-bats. This year, he's been pretty solid, with a .346/.382/.442 line. Obviously it's quite unlikely that he'll keep up the average, but he has hit as many doubles this year (5) as he did all of last year. He also needs to show some more speed, as he has only stolen nine bases in his time in Minnesota.
However, if he continues to produce at a similar rate, he'll remain a good backup and even a decent option at DH. Consider the alternatives: right now, it's Jeff Cirillo, who has been hurt, and Josh Rabe, who has also has no power and does not hit anywhere near .300. If Jason Kubel isn't in the outfield, he remains a superior option and when Rondell White comes back, he'd remain the better option despite his overall poor numbers with the Twins.
Of course, Tyner wasn't the only story of last night, as Sidney Ponson had his best game in a Twins uniform. Ponson had a quality start, going seven innings, allowing only five hits, one run, and two walks while striking out five. However, the run he gave up was a home run to Delmon Young and Ponson gave up plenty of deep fly balls, allowing several warning track outs and posting a GB/FB ratio of 7/8. Getting lucky doesn't make me feel much better about Ponson and now he gets a longer lease in the rotation, as manager Ron Gardenhire was ecstatic about Ponson's start.
Gardenhire told reporters that, "As the game went along, (Ponson) made an adjustment. We talked to him about getting on top of the ball a little more and his last couple innings the ball was really diving. We were excited about that, his adjustment during the game more than anything else." I don't know that his ball was really diving that much if he gave up so many deep fly balls, but obviously Gardenhire is more than ready to put him out there again. Ponson's next start will come against the potent Boston offense and I have to imagine that isn't going to be too pretty.
The best news, though, is that the offense came out against the hapless Devil Ray pitching staff, as they scored nine runs on 17 hits, with Tyner, Luis Castillo and Joe Mauer collecting three hits apiece. Hopefully, the Twins can use this series against the Rays to heat up their bats before their weekend series against the Red Sox. However, the Twins did get some bad news, as Michael Cuddyer hurt himself on a baserunning tumble and now has a bruised back. Let's hope he gets back soon. If he misses a game, I'm all for Justin Morneau moving into the cleanup spot, as if that wasn't the obvious move.
Tonight, the Twins face the terrible Jae Seo and his 9.51 ERA. If the Twins play their cards right, maybe they can raise Seo's ERA to a Jeff Weaver level.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Four Straight
... Losses, that is. And that sadly includes two losses to the Royals. In their last six games (four against the Royals) the Twins are 2-6. Two of those losses against the Royals came with Sidney Ponson on the mound. When it comes to Ponson, there are so many ways to show how things have gone so far this year, yet the Twins are poised to give him another start because he wasn't a trainwreck against the Royals. Even that sentence felt like a joke.
Let's take a look at the numbers. So far this year, Ponson has allowed up 44 base-runners in 21 2/3 innings, a .361 OBA, six home runs, a 2.06 WHIP, 35 hits, only 12 Ks, and a 8.44 ERA. About the only good thing is his 2.19 GB/FB ratio. But who cares about getting ground balls if you're still serving up home runs left and right (he's on pace to give up 44 in only 155 innings) and have become more a batting practice pitcher than Carlos Silva was last year?
There isn't anything to be inspired by in Ponson's pitching and it's pointless to continue to hold back the Twins' youth for a guy with an 8.44 ERA. It would be difficult at this point to convince me that either Glen Perkins, Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, or Scott Baker would be this bad now or over the course of the season. Even if they were, there would at least be a defense for their struggles considering their inexperience and need to adjust to the majors. Certainly it's better to take a 8.44 while a young, talented pitcher adjusts than having it from a washed-up veteran on the 13-step program. Therefore, I am going to once again suggest that the Twins call up Baker and hand the fifth spot in the rotation to him and at least give him the same leash they have given Ponson, if not a lot more.
However, once again, my patience remains lost on the Twins hitters. They faced hefty opposition in Odalis Perez last night and managed a pathetic six hits and got nothing against a young Royals bullpen that struggles with control. (It's true that Perez had a few good years with the Dodgers, but that is a pitcher's environment that many have had success in before struggling vastly in the American League. See Park, Chan Ho.)
Particularly bad were Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau, the only power sources for the team outside of Torii Hunter. Cuddyer and Morneau combined to go 0-for-8 and left five men on. In fact, Hunter was the only Twin really hitting last night, as ripped hit a home run and a double, scoring two of the team's three runs. Otherwise, Michael Cuddyer's double-play scored a run in the seventh, but that only serves up a little taste of irony by scoring despite or because of futility.
This afternoon the Twins face Zack Greinke and hopefully they can put on some runs against him like they did last Saturday. It is absolutely imperative that they get a victory here before heading to Detroit, where they were memorably outscored 33-1 over three games in their first visit last season.
Let's take a look at the numbers. So far this year, Ponson has allowed up 44 base-runners in 21 2/3 innings, a .361 OBA, six home runs, a 2.06 WHIP, 35 hits, only 12 Ks, and a 8.44 ERA. About the only good thing is his 2.19 GB/FB ratio. But who cares about getting ground balls if you're still serving up home runs left and right (he's on pace to give up 44 in only 155 innings) and have become more a batting practice pitcher than Carlos Silva was last year?
There isn't anything to be inspired by in Ponson's pitching and it's pointless to continue to hold back the Twins' youth for a guy with an 8.44 ERA. It would be difficult at this point to convince me that either Glen Perkins, Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, or Scott Baker would be this bad now or over the course of the season. Even if they were, there would at least be a defense for their struggles considering their inexperience and need to adjust to the majors. Certainly it's better to take a 8.44 while a young, talented pitcher adjusts than having it from a washed-up veteran on the 13-step program. Therefore, I am going to once again suggest that the Twins call up Baker and hand the fifth spot in the rotation to him and at least give him the same leash they have given Ponson, if not a lot more.
However, once again, my patience remains lost on the Twins hitters. They faced hefty opposition in Odalis Perez last night and managed a pathetic six hits and got nothing against a young Royals bullpen that struggles with control. (It's true that Perez had a few good years with the Dodgers, but that is a pitcher's environment that many have had success in before struggling vastly in the American League. See Park, Chan Ho.)
Particularly bad were Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau, the only power sources for the team outside of Torii Hunter. Cuddyer and Morneau combined to go 0-for-8 and left five men on. In fact, Hunter was the only Twin really hitting last night, as ripped hit a home run and a double, scoring two of the team's three runs. Otherwise, Michael Cuddyer's double-play scored a run in the seventh, but that only serves up a little taste of irony by scoring despite or because of futility.
This afternoon the Twins face Zack Greinke and hopefully they can put on some runs against him like they did last Saturday. It is absolutely imperative that they get a victory here before heading to Detroit, where they were memorably outscored 33-1 over three games in their first visit last season.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Third Start Not a Charm For Sir Sid
Early this offseason, the Twins front office took a few chances. One of them clearly was with Sidney Ponson. So far, the deal has worked out terribly. In 15 1/3 innings this year after last night's disaster, Ponson has allowed 28 hits and 16 runs. He's struck out ten hitters, which isn't terrible, but he's also walked seven. Those add up to some stand-out awful numbers: 9.39 ERA, .384 opponent BA, 2.28 WHIP, and four home runs allowed so far. (That adds up to a predicted 38)
Sure, it has only been three starts and one of those against--against the Yankees--is at least somewhat forgivable. However, a mediocre start against Tampa Bay and last night's debacle against the Kansas City inspires absolutely no confidence in Ponson having a decent year. He's hittable, his control isn't there, and there is no way he going to do any better than our minor league options at this point.
The experiment must be ended. The good news is the one minor league starter the Twins aren't concerned about rushing--Scott Baker--had a very good start last night. In that start, Baker gave up only two runs in eight shutout innings while striking out eight and walking none. Baker has clearly mastered Triple-A hitters and has nothing to prove there. As soon as the Twins decide to end the Sir Sid experiment, its time to give Baker another shot.
As for the rest of the game, it was pretty miserable to watch the Twins bullpen give up five runs to relinquish the lead. And though there were no errors, the Twins defense last night was far from inspiring. At least the offense managed some runs, but the ninth inning felt typical up the Twins offense recently: a good at-bat by Joe Mauer ending in a strikeout, a Michael Cuddyer homerun, and then Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter getting out on the first pitch. Against Royal pitchers who often can't even find the strikezone, the need to be a little more patient. Lets hope for some improvement today, when Boof Bonser takes the mound.
Sure, it has only been three starts and one of those against--against the Yankees--is at least somewhat forgivable. However, a mediocre start against Tampa Bay and last night's debacle against the Kansas City inspires absolutely no confidence in Ponson having a decent year. He's hittable, his control isn't there, and there is no way he going to do any better than our minor league options at this point.
The experiment must be ended. The good news is the one minor league starter the Twins aren't concerned about rushing--Scott Baker--had a very good start last night. In that start, Baker gave up only two runs in eight shutout innings while striking out eight and walking none. Baker has clearly mastered Triple-A hitters and has nothing to prove there. As soon as the Twins decide to end the Sir Sid experiment, its time to give Baker another shot.
As for the rest of the game, it was pretty miserable to watch the Twins bullpen give up five runs to relinquish the lead. And though there were no errors, the Twins defense last night was far from inspiring. At least the offense managed some runs, but the ninth inning felt typical up the Twins offense recently: a good at-bat by Joe Mauer ending in a strikeout, a Michael Cuddyer homerun, and then Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter getting out on the first pitch. Against Royal pitchers who often can't even find the strikezone, the need to be a little more patient. Lets hope for some improvement today, when Boof Bonser takes the mound.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
The Bats Finally Come Out
After the last two games against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, I was thinking about how the Twins almost lost two games a pretty bad team. They got lucky breaks due to bad Tampa Bay defense and baserunning and still managed a loss with Johan Santana on the mound Friday night. Facing a guy like Scott Kazmir gave them an excuse, but it was still just the Devil Rays. Some notes:
* Last night the Twins finally broke out in a big fashion against Edwin Jackson and the hapless Devil Ray bullpen. With 14 hits and 12 runs, the offense was filled with stars, with the 3-4-5-6 (Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, Hunter) going 9-for-17 with 8 RBI and 6 runs scored. Cuddyer was particularly impressive, going 4-for-4 with two RBIs and a double, hustling on every play and making an outstanding throw to catch B.J. Upton making another Tampa Bay baserunning mistake by trying to strech a double to a triple.
* Cuddyer is hitting .390 (16-for-41) so far this year and has 8 RBI, starting out much hotter than previous Aprils, as he has hit .227/.287/.377 in 154 April at-bats in the previous three seasons. He has historically been a better second-half hitter, so seeing him start off this hot is very encouraging. As much as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are keys to the offense, Cuddyer having a great year is just as important to the Twins competing.
* Of course, Cuddyer won't be the most talked about story of last night. Jason Tyner went 3-for-5 and nearly hit the first home run of his career, but he was denied by the baggie, just as he was on a similar drive last year. Tyner managed two doubles, which is big power for him, in a start in center field while Torii Hunter rested in the DH spot. Maybe Tyner will hit .300 again, but I'll remain cautious about his use. If he can come in to give Hunter a rest and get a few hits, then he he'll be doing a good job. Tyner wasn't the only "piranha" hitting balls hard, though, as Luis Rodriguez took Ruddy Lugo deep.
* The other story is Sidney Ponson, who picked up his first Twins victory. Ponson once again had a very mixed outting. He managed to strike out six hitters in 5 1/3 innings, but he also walked three. His lack of control is frustrating and causes him to constantly tread a dangerous line, since he is hittable (he also gave up eight hits). However, Ponson gave up only two runs. A lot of that can be attributed to Juan Rincon, who came in with men on second and third with one out in the sixth inning and managed to get both hitters out. After some frustrating early outings, it was good to see Rincon get three strikeouts in 1 2/3 innings. Ponson also got some help from his defense, with good plays from Cuddyer and Jason Bartlett. Ponson hasn't looked terrible, but his control isn't great right now and he has given up too many hits. The good news is that, if you watch his post-game interview on FSN, Ponson is fully aware that throwing down the middle isn't a great idea.
* On a final note, I would expect Alexi Casilla's amazing play for the final out to be shown numerous times on SportsCenter and to get that all-important "Web-Gem" label.
* Last night the Twins finally broke out in a big fashion against Edwin Jackson and the hapless Devil Ray bullpen. With 14 hits and 12 runs, the offense was filled with stars, with the 3-4-5-6 (Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, Hunter) going 9-for-17 with 8 RBI and 6 runs scored. Cuddyer was particularly impressive, going 4-for-4 with two RBIs and a double, hustling on every play and making an outstanding throw to catch B.J. Upton making another Tampa Bay baserunning mistake by trying to strech a double to a triple.
* Cuddyer is hitting .390 (16-for-41) so far this year and has 8 RBI, starting out much hotter than previous Aprils, as he has hit .227/.287/.377 in 154 April at-bats in the previous three seasons. He has historically been a better second-half hitter, so seeing him start off this hot is very encouraging. As much as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are keys to the offense, Cuddyer having a great year is just as important to the Twins competing.
* Of course, Cuddyer won't be the most talked about story of last night. Jason Tyner went 3-for-5 and nearly hit the first home run of his career, but he was denied by the baggie, just as he was on a similar drive last year. Tyner managed two doubles, which is big power for him, in a start in center field while Torii Hunter rested in the DH spot. Maybe Tyner will hit .300 again, but I'll remain cautious about his use. If he can come in to give Hunter a rest and get a few hits, then he he'll be doing a good job. Tyner wasn't the only "piranha" hitting balls hard, though, as Luis Rodriguez took Ruddy Lugo deep.
* The other story is Sidney Ponson, who picked up his first Twins victory. Ponson once again had a very mixed outting. He managed to strike out six hitters in 5 1/3 innings, but he also walked three. His lack of control is frustrating and causes him to constantly tread a dangerous line, since he is hittable (he also gave up eight hits). However, Ponson gave up only two runs. A lot of that can be attributed to Juan Rincon, who came in with men on second and third with one out in the sixth inning and managed to get both hitters out. After some frustrating early outings, it was good to see Rincon get three strikeouts in 1 2/3 innings. Ponson also got some help from his defense, with good plays from Cuddyer and Jason Bartlett. Ponson hasn't looked terrible, but his control isn't great right now and he has given up too many hits. The good news is that, if you watch his post-game interview on FSN, Ponson is fully aware that throwing down the middle isn't a great idea.
* On a final note, I would expect Alexi Casilla's amazing play for the final out to be shown numerous times on SportsCenter and to get that all-important "Web-Gem" label.
Sunday, April 01, 2007
That Sinking Feeling
Sidney Ponson's last spring start yesterday wasn't exactly pretty. He allowed 10 hits and five runs (one unearned) in five innings, while walking one and striking out three. His groundball-to-flyball ratio looked good at 9-3, but the results weren't all that positive. His spring training ERA ends at 4.29, but the inconsistency of his starts reminds us of something: trusting sinkerballers to be successful can be a dangerous game.
The Twins are taking their chances this year with Ponson and Carlos Silva. Both have had one particularly good season and one decent season and both were terrible last year. (I'm not counting Silva's two relief seasons in Philadelphia, since we are discussing starters here.) Inconsistency from sinkerballers, of course, is nothing new.
I think there are two recent examples of success and failure with trying to bring back such pitchers from struggles: Derek Lowe and Jason Marquis. Naturally, when it comes to sinkers, no one can compete with 2006 NL Cy Young winner Brandon Webb, but Webb is the exception and he's yet to really have a bad season. As for Lowe, he's the most positive of the two cases.
Lowe in his career is 100-82 with a 3.81 ERA (as well as 85 saves, a product of his days as the Boston closer) in 189 starts. In 2002, Lowe contended for the Cy Young when he went 21-8 with a 2.58 ERA. Lowe didn't do that on pure luck or anything, as opponents .211/.266/.302 against him with only 12 home runs. Lowe also walked only 48 in 219 2/3 innings.
Lowe followed with an average campaign in 2003, going 17-7 with a 4.47 (remember, the Red Sox had a pretty good offense that year). The following year, Lowe hit rock bottom, going 14-12 with a 5.42 ERA. Lowe gave up 224 hits in 182 2/3 innings, a very Silva-esque year. Lowe managed to save his year by having a great postseason and got a nice contract from the Dodgers in the offseason. He's been very good for the Dodgers the last two years, going 28-23 with a 3.62 ERA. He's pitched an average of 220 innings in those two years. Of course, it helps that Chavez Ravine is a wonderful pitcher's park, but home runs were never Lowe's problem, as he gave up only 15 in his worst year and in fact, gave up a career-high 28 in 2005, his first year with the Dodgers.
As for Marquis, his story should provide more caution to trusting sinkerballers. Marquis was a highly-touted prospect for the Braves, getting his first call-up in 2000, pitching 23 1/3 relief innings with a 5.01 ERA. The next year, Marquis appeared in 38 games and got 16 starts, going 5-6 with a 3.48 ERA. His future looked good, as he struck out 6.82 per 9 IP, a good number for a sinkerballer. However, Marquis started only 22 times in 2002, going 8-9 with a 5.04 ERA in 114 1/3 innings. In 2003, he was injured and complained about spending the majority of time in relief, as he was had an awful 5.53 ERA in 40 2/3 innings. He was traded that offseason to the Cardinals, who saw him as a reclaimation project for pitching guru Dave Duncan. (You'll note they did the same with Ponson last year and that didn't work out so well.)
Marquis would have his best year in 2004, going 15-7 in 201 1/3 innings with a 3.71 ERA. Hitters still knocked him around though, hitting .275/.339/.430. He followed up in 2005 with a solid year, going 13-14 with a 4.13 ERA. After an average year, he was absolutely terrible last year, nearly as bad as Silva. In 194 1/3 innings, he gave up 221 hits, had a 6.02 ERA, gave up 35 homers, and let hitters knock an astounding .289/.364/.509 against him. Basically, hitters lit up like Michael Cuddyer. (For reference, opposing batters hit .324/.354/.538 off Silva, with 246 hits and 38 homers in 180 1/3 innings. Sorry for making everyone remember just how bad it was...)
Despite this, Marquis got a three-year, $21 million contract from the Cubs. Like the Twins, because of one good year (and a decent year), the Cubs decided to take a chance on the "veteran" Marquis. The pattern is the same. In 2005, Silva had his best year, going 9-8 with a 3.44 ERA and that great 71/9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 188 1/3 innings. The year before, he was had a pretty good year, going 14-8 with a 4.21 ERA. Likewise, Ponson had a decent year in 2002, going 7-9 with a 4.09 ERA and had his best year in 2003, going 17-12 with a 3.75 ERA. Each year, he treaded the fine line, as opponents still managed a .258 average against him. He followed with a drinking problem and bad enough pitching to get his contract terminated by the Orioles. Last year, the Cardinals tried the same thing the Twins are now, releasing Ponson after he went 4-4 with a 5.24 ERA in 13 starts, sending him to New York, where he lasted only 16 1/3 innings. At the end of the year, he had gone 4-5 with a 6.25 ERA in 85 innings. Nothing pretty.
So what's the point with all these stats? Not to overwhelm anyone, but just to show a simple point: sinkerballers always walk a fine line and a dangerous one at that when trusting them with the ball. What is so confusing is that a former scout like Terry Ryan should recognize this. Having two of these guys in the rotation could mean anything. Sure, they could both "revert" to their former selves, under the guiding of pitching coach Rick Anderson. Or, more likely, they could be terrible again. For every story like Lowe, or even Webb, their is a guy like Marquis, who probably isn't worth the trouble.
The Twins are taking their chances this year with Ponson and Carlos Silva. Both have had one particularly good season and one decent season and both were terrible last year. (I'm not counting Silva's two relief seasons in Philadelphia, since we are discussing starters here.) Inconsistency from sinkerballers, of course, is nothing new.
I think there are two recent examples of success and failure with trying to bring back such pitchers from struggles: Derek Lowe and Jason Marquis. Naturally, when it comes to sinkers, no one can compete with 2006 NL Cy Young winner Brandon Webb, but Webb is the exception and he's yet to really have a bad season. As for Lowe, he's the most positive of the two cases.
Lowe in his career is 100-82 with a 3.81 ERA (as well as 85 saves, a product of his days as the Boston closer) in 189 starts. In 2002, Lowe contended for the Cy Young when he went 21-8 with a 2.58 ERA. Lowe didn't do that on pure luck or anything, as opponents .211/.266/.302 against him with only 12 home runs. Lowe also walked only 48 in 219 2/3 innings.
Lowe followed with an average campaign in 2003, going 17-7 with a 4.47 (remember, the Red Sox had a pretty good offense that year). The following year, Lowe hit rock bottom, going 14-12 with a 5.42 ERA. Lowe gave up 224 hits in 182 2/3 innings, a very Silva-esque year. Lowe managed to save his year by having a great postseason and got a nice contract from the Dodgers in the offseason. He's been very good for the Dodgers the last two years, going 28-23 with a 3.62 ERA. He's pitched an average of 220 innings in those two years. Of course, it helps that Chavez Ravine is a wonderful pitcher's park, but home runs were never Lowe's problem, as he gave up only 15 in his worst year and in fact, gave up a career-high 28 in 2005, his first year with the Dodgers.
As for Marquis, his story should provide more caution to trusting sinkerballers. Marquis was a highly-touted prospect for the Braves, getting his first call-up in 2000, pitching 23 1/3 relief innings with a 5.01 ERA. The next year, Marquis appeared in 38 games and got 16 starts, going 5-6 with a 3.48 ERA. His future looked good, as he struck out 6.82 per 9 IP, a good number for a sinkerballer. However, Marquis started only 22 times in 2002, going 8-9 with a 5.04 ERA in 114 1/3 innings. In 2003, he was injured and complained about spending the majority of time in relief, as he was had an awful 5.53 ERA in 40 2/3 innings. He was traded that offseason to the Cardinals, who saw him as a reclaimation project for pitching guru Dave Duncan. (You'll note they did the same with Ponson last year and that didn't work out so well.)
Marquis would have his best year in 2004, going 15-7 in 201 1/3 innings with a 3.71 ERA. Hitters still knocked him around though, hitting .275/.339/.430. He followed up in 2005 with a solid year, going 13-14 with a 4.13 ERA. After an average year, he was absolutely terrible last year, nearly as bad as Silva. In 194 1/3 innings, he gave up 221 hits, had a 6.02 ERA, gave up 35 homers, and let hitters knock an astounding .289/.364/.509 against him. Basically, hitters lit up like Michael Cuddyer. (For reference, opposing batters hit .324/.354/.538 off Silva, with 246 hits and 38 homers in 180 1/3 innings. Sorry for making everyone remember just how bad it was...)
Despite this, Marquis got a three-year, $21 million contract from the Cubs. Like the Twins, because of one good year (and a decent year), the Cubs decided to take a chance on the "veteran" Marquis. The pattern is the same. In 2005, Silva had his best year, going 9-8 with a 3.44 ERA and that great 71/9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 188 1/3 innings. The year before, he was had a pretty good year, going 14-8 with a 4.21 ERA. Likewise, Ponson had a decent year in 2002, going 7-9 with a 4.09 ERA and had his best year in 2003, going 17-12 with a 3.75 ERA. Each year, he treaded the fine line, as opponents still managed a .258 average against him. He followed with a drinking problem and bad enough pitching to get his contract terminated by the Orioles. Last year, the Cardinals tried the same thing the Twins are now, releasing Ponson after he went 4-4 with a 5.24 ERA in 13 starts, sending him to New York, where he lasted only 16 1/3 innings. At the end of the year, he had gone 4-5 with a 6.25 ERA in 85 innings. Nothing pretty.
So what's the point with all these stats? Not to overwhelm anyone, but just to show a simple point: sinkerballers always walk a fine line and a dangerous one at that when trusting them with the ball. What is so confusing is that a former scout like Terry Ryan should recognize this. Having two of these guys in the rotation could mean anything. Sure, they could both "revert" to their former selves, under the guiding of pitching coach Rick Anderson. Or, more likely, they could be terrible again. For every story like Lowe, or even Webb, their is a guy like Marquis, who probably isn't worth the trouble.
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