Livan's Swan Song?

Livan Hernandez is doing his best to help make Ron Gardenhire's decision on how to make room in the Twins rotation for Francisco Liriano an easy one. Last night, for a second consecutive outing, Hernandez put the Twins in a deep early hole by surrendering five runs in the first few innings. Unlike his last start against the Indians, Hernandez didn't last to see the Twins make a competitive game out of last night's affair, as he exited after four innings and the game eventually deteriorated into an 8-3 laugher.

Had the Twins scored a few runs against Gavin Floyd, one might have tried to argue that Hernandez "kept the Twins in the game," but with the offense's punchless performance, there's no way to look at Hernandez's outing as anything other than it truly was: an awful performance. And such outings haven't been particularly rare for him this season.

In just four innings last night, Hernandez allowed 11 base-runners (one of which, in fairness, was an intentional walk). He surrendered nine hits, raising his opponents' batting average to .341 for the season, and was uncharacteristically inefficient with his pitch count, needing 80 pitches to get through four frames. The poor outing came in a game that the Twin really would have liked to win against a contending divisional rival, and also came in the aftermath of a brilliant start by one young starter and a solid start by another one. In other words, there is little excusing last night's pitiful performance from Hernandez, a veteran who should be expected to come through for the Twins on nights like this. Instead of giving the team a legitimate chance to win and move into first place, Hernandez turned in his shortest outing since June 12 and suffered his team-leading eighth loss. The Twins will now have to count on Scott Baker to help them win tonight's finale, and in doing so avoid making no progress against the division leaders in this series despite having won the first two games in exciting fashion.

The trade deadline falls at 3 p.m. this afternoon. As I've stated before, I don't expect the Twins to make any type of significant move to bring in outside talent, and that's alright with me. In my mind, the most important trade the Twins can make right now is swapping the utterly hittable Hernandez out of the rotation in favor of Liriano.

Post-Break Rotation Outlook

Over the past weekend, the Twins took three out of four from the Tigers in Detroit to head into the All-Star break on a high note. During the current four-day respite from meaningful games, we fans can reflect on the team's 53-42 record, and their position 1.5 games behind the first-place White Sox in the American League Central.

The Twins seem to be well-situated offensively. With the exception of Carlos Gomez, just about every regular is hitting pretty well right now. Ron Gardenhire will have a situation to deal with when Michael Cuddyer returns (what to do with Denard Span?), but for the most part, the offense seems set for the last couple months of the season.

Things are a little less clear with regards to the rotation. Let's break down each starter and what we can expect after the break.

Scott Baker has pitched like a true ace this season, having gone 6-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 68-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 83 innings spread across 14 starts. He missed a month early in the season due to an injury, which has limited his workload, but that may be beneficial down the stretch when his inning load for the season is quite low relative to his peers. Baker has limited hits (only 82 in 83 innings), shown outstanding control, and has displayed an impressive ability to miss bats with a solid strikeout rate overall and 7+ K in six different starts. He has been a bit homer-prone, having surrendered 13 dingers in his 83 innings of work, but that's hardly unusual for a fly ball pitcher like him. The key is limiting that damage by preventing hits and being stingy with walks. Baker has excelled in both those categories; that's why he's been the Twins' best pitcher thus far and figures to continue to do so the rest of the way.

Kevin Slowey had been pitching exceedingly well through his first 12 starts, with a 3.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but he has struggled in his past two outings. He surrendered five runs over six innings of work against the Indians two starts ago, and his last time out he was shelled by the Tigers for six runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work. In both starts, Slowey was victimized by big innings. As a result, his ERA has shot up from 3.47 to 4.26, but I don't think there's any serious reason to worry. Finesse pitchers like Slowey are susceptible to rough outings from time to time (as I wrote on Friday), but I suspect he'll be able to bounce back from the ugly start just as he was able to bounce back from that 8 ER, 3 IP debacle in Chicago back in early June. That is, if he's healthy. He was scheduled to start the first game after the break on Friday, but has had his start pushed back due to a fingernail problem. This will be worth monitoring.

Nick Blackburn has been perhaps the team's biggest surprise this year. Sunday, he allowed only two earned runs over seven innings of work against a tough Tiger offense. He took the loss in the game, and while I'm sure that some (one specifically) will try to argue that he didn't "give his team a chance to win" because three runs came across on his watch and the Twins only scored twice, it was a Quality Start and a very impressive outing. He enters the break 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 64-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 19 starts. Now, just because Blackburn's success this season is somewhat unexpected doesn't mean we can't expect it to continue. He doesn't overwhelm hitters and doesn't strike many people out, but Blackburn pounds the strike zone and induces ground balls at a steady rate, which is a good recipe for lots of innings with a solid ERA. Sure enough, he's on pace to throw over 200 innings this year with an ERA that is better than the league average. This makes him a very valuable guy to have in the middle of the rotation.

Glen Perkins was not being counted on to be a member of this rotation prior to the season. He had never made a start at the major-league level and missed most of 2007 with a shoulder injury. Fortunately, he's stepped in as a starter for the Twins and has done a fine job anchoring the back end of the rotation. His 4.14 ERA and 43-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio are unexceptional, but plenty satisfactory for a No. 4 starter. He has surrendered 95 hits in 78 1/3 innings and his drop-off in K-rate is a bit alarming, but his aggressive pitching style has worked well. He might be due for some regression, but he's a good bet to remain relatively productive over the last couple months of the season and shouldn't have a terribly difficult time holding down his spot in the rotation.

The final spot is where things get interesting. Livan Hernandez leads the team in wins with nine, but nearly every other number is ugly. He holds a 5.44 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP and 45-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 120 2/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .342/.368/.506 against him, which is pretty unbelievable. Essentially, he's turning opposing lineups into a bunch of MVP candidates. Since starting the season 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA, Hernandez has gone 3-5 with a 6.86 ERA and a ghastly .373 BAA. Over his past 10 outings, he has worked three Quality Starts, and those have come against Washington, Arizona and Cleveland. When facing tough offenses like the Rangers, Yankees and Red Sox, Hernandez has been hit hard, and he's been hammered nearly every time he's made a start on the road. Hernandez's strategy of lobbing 84-mph fastballs over the plate is clearly not playing well for the most part, and there's no reason to think it will get any better as long as he continues to allow nearly two hits per inning.

Meanwhile, Francisco Liriano has been brilliant in Triple-A as of late. He has reportedly reverted to his three-quarters arm slot after some attempted mechanical adjustments, and the results have been extremely impressive: three straight scoreless outings, with more than a strikeout per inning and a minuscule 0.65 WHIP during that span. There is little question that Liriano would provide a vast improvement over Hernandez immediately, but for the time being the Twins seem committed to their veteran innings eater. We'll see how long that lasts if Liriano continues to dominate while Hernandez continues to get knocked around like a piñata. Of course, Liriano could find his way into the rotation as a replacement for Slowey if the fingernail issue is more serious than initially thought.

Livan on the Edge

Back on May 16, I posted an article titled The Truth About Boof, in which I examined the performance of Boof Bonser (who was then 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA) and Livan Hernandez (who was then 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA). The post came in reaction to cries for Bonser to be removed from the rotation, and my basic contention was that Bonser was not pitching nearly as poorly as his basic numbers suggested, whereas the opposite was true of Hernandez. I predicted that the numbers would start to reflect these truths as time went on, and concluded the post by stating "there is plenty of reason to believe that the hefty Cuban is due for some decline while Bonser improves, so one month from now I think we could very easily be hearing the same cries of outrage directed at Hernandez."

Exactly one month later, it certainly appears that I've whiffed on Bonser. He was demoted to the bullpen just a few starts after I wrote the article, and he has now been charged with earned runs in four of his five appearances as a reliever. I maintain that Bonser is not nearly as bad a pitcher as many seem to believe (through it all, he still has a 4.48 xFIP and his strikeout rate has been good since he joined the bullpen), but with his 6.45 ERA, it's pretty tough for me to stand by Bonser at this point.

Nevertheless, my remarks regarding Hernandez have proven prescient. He began a precipitous decline almost immediately after I made that post, and has gone 0-3 with a 9.38 ERA and .438 BAA in six starts since, allowing more than two hits per inning during that span while averaging less than six innings per start. Calls for Hernandez to be booted from the rotation have begun to surface, and indeed, that moment may not be too far off.

I can hardly feel smug about my prognostication on this one. To many, Hernandez's downfall was as predictable as John McCain starting a speech with the phrase, "My friends." Quite simply, Hernandez's strategy of not striking anyone out and letting opposing hitters hit the ball (and hard) was not going to yield remotely successful results for an extended period of time. No amount of veteran moxie or guile can magically cause batters to hit line drives directly at fielders. Eventually Hernandez's utterly hittable stuff was going to catch up with him, and it certainly appears that that time has come.

A stark parallel can be drawn between the paths taken by Hernandez this year and by another veteran free agent signing for the Twins from last season, Ramon Ortiz. Much like Hernandez, Ortiz was a mid-30s right-hander with declining numbers who many felt the Twins overpaid for. Similar to Hernandez, Ortiz got his Twins career off to a surprising start, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA through his first five starts. Yet, just like with Hernandez, Ortiz's luck quickly caught up with him, as he went 0-3 with a 10.97 ERA over his next five starts before being demoted to the bullpen at the end of May. Hernandez's success lasted a little longer, so the Twins are showing a bit more patience with him, but I can't imagine he's long for the rotation with the way he's getting battered in every outing.

By letting batters put the ball in play consistently, Hernandez has been living on the edge. After a surprisingly strong start, that strategy has stopped working as of late. There's no reason to believe it will start working again soon. So how long until Hernandez follows Bonser's fate?

The Truth About Boof

I was going to spend today's post writing about a costly lack of fundamentals that caused the Twins to lose three straight games against the Blue Jays this week, thus putting a disappointing cap on a homestand that started out so promisingly. But instead, there's another topic I'd like to delve into. And that is Boof Bonser.

After his latest poor outing on Wednesday night, fans are turning on Bonser in droves. For whatever reason, it seems like much of the fan base has always had it in for Boof, and his latest three-game slump has brought complaints to a fever pitch. The Twins generally have a fairly intelligent and patient group of followers, so I have to say I'm a little surprised by what I view as an extremely unfair fan response to Bonser's struggles. Not only would a demotion to the bullpen or minors for Bonser be reactionary and unwarranted, it would be downright stupid.

Bonser's last three starts have been ugly, there's no doubt about it. During that span, he has allowed 16 earned runs over 16 innings for a 9.00 ERA. Yet, it seems to me that the fans who are complaining loudly about Bonser's performance this year are either plagued by short-term memory or are actively choosing to ignore the good things he's done. Over his first six outings of the season, Bonser tossed five Quality Starts, though he gained only two wins thanks to some lousy run support. Bonser finished the month of April with an ERA under 4.

Even with his past three starts taken into account, Bonser's numbers for the season really aren't that bad when you take a deeper look. Yes, he is 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA, but his case illustrates a perfect example of why win/loss record and ERA are not the most telling measures of a pitcher's performance, in spite of the fact that they are the ones most often quoted in the media.

Let's compare the performances of Bonser and the team "ace" Livan Hernandez on the season. As I mentioned, Bonser has a 2-5 record and an ugly 5.37 ERA through nine starts, whereas Hernandez has surprised everyone by going 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA over the same number of starts. Looking at those numbers, one could easily conclude that Hernandez has been the better pitcher. But taking a look at some more intuitive statistics, we'll find that this isn't necessarily true:

	Bonser	Hernandez
IP	52	57.2
K/BB	33/15	21/11
HR Allowed	5	9
Opp. OPS	700	820
FIP	3.92	4.21
xFIP	4.48	4.59

Bonser and Hernandez have both gotten roughly two strikeouts for each walk, but opposing hitters have slugged just .390 against Bonser, as opposed to .485 against Hernandez. This is a big part of the reason that fielding-independent statistics like FIP and xFIP indicate that the two pitchers have been a whole lot closer in performance than their win-loss record or ERA will tell us.

Now, to be fair, I'll note that Bonser is likely to start giving up more home runs, because his current 7.8 percent home run/fly ball rate is unsustainably low (Hernandez's is 13.1), but it's also worth noting that Bonser is currently only inducing ground balls at a 38.4 percent rate after posting percentages of 45 and 41.7 in his first two seasons, so we can expect him to cut down on the fly balls to some degree. Meanwhile, Hernandez's current 42.7 percent ground ball rate is likely to come down given that he hasn't posted a GB% over 40 since 2004. Moreover, I suspect that Bonser's K-rate will rise at least a bit, while Hernandez isn't real likely to start missing any more bats with his 85-mph "heat."

All of this is a very long-winded way of saying that Bonser has not pitched as poorly as his numbers indicate, and that there's actually a pretty good argument that he has pitched at least as well as Hernandez. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not one of the people that swears by statistics like FIP and DIPS to the point where I blissfully ignore reality. Hernandez has allowed fewer runs and has helped the Twins win more games, and he deserves commendation for that. But there is plenty of reason to believe that the hefty Cuban is due for some decline while Bonser improves, so one month from now I think we could very easily be hearing the same cries of outrage directed at Hernandez. And I hope people will be counting their lucky stars that Bonser wasn't sent down to Rochester.

Thoughts From the Opener

Boy, tough to find anything not to like about last night's game. The Twins won 3-2, got a number of strong performances, and played good fundamental baseball. They left a ton of runs on the bases by going just 3-for-15 in scoring opportunities, but fortunately three was enough on this night thanks to some great pitching.

It's always a struggle to organize one's thoughts after taking in the first meaningful baseball game in several months, so here are a smattering of random thoughts about last night's game:

* The story of the game, of course, was Carlos Gomez. The new center fielder led the game off with hard-hit double down the third base line, and finished 2-for-3 with a walk and two stolen bases. Aside from showing his tremendous speed on the base-paths, he also flashed it in the outfield where he nearly overran a couple fly balls that initially looked like they might drop in for hits.

I had a feeling that Gomez's Opening Day performance would either be really good or really awful, and promised myself not to make much of it either way. Certainly, Gomez will have plenty more nights like last night where he just dominates a game with his athleticism, but there is little doubt that he will also have nights where he frustrates us with the questionable decision-making and lacking fundamentals that come along with being a 22-year-old in his first full major-league season.

Still, Gomez's performance illustrated exactly why I have always felt he was the best candidate to come north as the starting center fielder. While the flaws in his game will no doubt show themselves over the coming months, Gomez is physically mature and an extremely exciting weapon to have in the lineup. I look forward to seeing what he brings tonight.

* Of course, the other big performer last night was starting pitcher Livan Hernandez. Like many, I was skeptical when Ron Gardenhire announced that Hernandez would be the team's Opening Day starter, but the veteran delivered seven innings of two-run ball against a fairly potent Angels lineup. Hernandez was far from dominant, rarely topping 85 miles per hour on the radar gun and recording just one strikeout, but he allowed just seven hits and no walks.

Keeping in mind that Ramon Ortiz had a 2.57 ERA at the end of April last year, I will say that Hernandez's outing was impressive and encouraging. He pitched to contact and kept the ball low in the zone all night long, which is exactly what he'll have to do in order to succeed considering his lack of quality pitches. I'm sure there will be nights where he fails to keep the ball down and gets ugly results, but if he can continue to do the things he did last night with some regularity, he may end up being a more useful player than many of us imagined.

* Staying on the topic of Hernandez, have you ever seen a pitcher look as bored and lethargic as he does on the mound? It looked to me like the guy was rushing through the game so he could get to the clubhouse and take a nap. Pretty humorous, I thought.

* Some other new Twins had themselves some solid Minnesota debuts. Brendan Harris went 2-for-4 (although one of his hits a was a double that was a gift from the roof). Mike Lamb went 1-for-3 with an RBI and a walk. Delmon Young went 2-for-4 with a stolen base, and lived up to his reputation by swinging at just about every pitch he saw.

* In his first game with the Angels, Torii Hunter went 0-for-4 and struck out against Joe Nathan in the ninth inning. Being that I'm not one of Hunter's biggest fans these days, I was pretty satisfied with that outcome.

* Unfortunately, not all was well in last night's game. In his infinite wisdom, Gardenhire elected to start Craig Monroe in the DH spot over Jason Kubel. I know many are probably sick of hearing me stick up for Kubel, but this is the kind of unspeakably illogical management from Gardy that makes my blood boil. If there's one thing we've learned about Monroe over the course of his career (and especially the past three years), it's that he CAN NOT HIT RIGHT-HANDED PITCHING. He is a .249/.296/.425 career hitter against righties, including .194/.247/.308 last year. There is simply no reason that a healthy Kubel should ever be benched in favor of Monroe against a right-handed pitcher. Doing it against a guy like Jered Weaver, who is particularly tough on right-handed hitters, is especially ill-advised; and doing it on Opening Night doesn't exactly send a positive message that Gardenhire views Kubel as his regular DH.

Predictably, Monroe went 0-for-3. The guy can serve a useful purpose on this team, and I don't really have a problem with him in general, but I'm quickly going to start to hate him if Gardy continues to misuse him. Kubel better be in the lineup tonight against Jon Garland or I'm going to blow a gasket. [/end rant]

Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Analyzing the Twins' rotation is no easy task, mostly because we still don't really know for sure how it's going to shape up. In my Spring Training Preview several weeks ago, I predicted the the rotation would shake out as some ordering of Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Livan Hernandez, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey. With less than a week remaining before the season opener, there is still no certainty about who will open the season in the rotation (Baker could well open the season on the disabled list and Liriano in the minors), but all five of these guys remain in camp so they are the ones I'll analyze today.

Livan Hernandez
2007 Stats: 204.1 IP, 11-11, 4.93 ERA, 90 K / 79 BB, 1.60 WHIP

Despite the fact that he could very well be the least qualified member of this group, Hernandez is lined up to start the season opener against the Angels next Monday. There's not much reason to believe that the hefty right-hander will have much success this season; his numbers have been uniformly trending downward over the past several years and he's moving to a considerably better offensive league and division. Opponents batted .308 and hit 34 home runs against Hernandez last year, and he struck out only 11 more batters than he walked. I suppose there's a chance he'll buck the trends and find some success in Minnesota, but it's certainly not likely. We'll just have to hope he can hold his own and provide the Twins with some reasonably decent innings this season.

Scott Baker

2007 Stats: 143.2 IP, 9-9, 4.26 ERA, 102 K / 29 BB, 1.33 WHIP

Baker debuted with the Twins in 2005 and had some success, posting an excellent 3.35 ERA over 53 2/3 innings. He figured to be a large part of the team's plans in 2006, but unfortunately struggled mightily with a 6.37 ERA and .324 BAA. With players like Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey stepping up, Baker was pushed out of the minds of many fans and came into 2007 with much to prove. He came through, pitching great in Rochester to earn another trip to Minnesota, where he established himself as a reliable starter with exceptional control. Baker will look to build on that success this year, and there's no reason to believe he can't.

Boof Bonser

2007 Stats: 173 IP, 8-12, 5.10 ERA, 136 K / 65 BB, 1.53 WHIP

Bonser first came up in 2006 and pitched well enough to become the Twins' Game 2 starter in their playoff series against the Athletics. Last year, however, he struggled with control and stamina problems and finished the season with ugly numbers. Perhaps most alarming was his drop-off in the later innings; Bonser held opponents to a 760 OPS in innings 1-3, but that number shot up to 911 in innings 4-6. The Twins believed that the problem may have been related to his weight, so they asked him to slim down during the offseason. Bonser complied by shedding upwards of 20 lbs, and so far this spring the effects appear to be positive.

Francisco Liriano

2007 Stats: did not pitch

Working his way back from Tommy John surgery, Liriano has gotten mixed results this spring. He has been able to throw all of his pitches and has reportedly been pain-free, but has struggled with his command and hasn't been able to get near his 2006 velocity consistently. This season will likely be a difficult one for Liriano as he must learn how to pitch all over again with a new ligament in his elbow. Expectations should remain low, especially early in the season, but the kid certainly has the talent and ability to do some special things.

Kevin Slowey

2007 Stats: 66.2 IP, 4-1, 4.73 ERA, 47 K / 11 BB, 1.40 WHIP

In spite of his utter domination throughout the minor leagues, scouts have generally been reserved in their assessments of Slowey because he lacks devastating stuff and doesn't possess a legitimate "out pitch," like Bonser's curve or Liriano's slider. However, Slowey continues to prove the scouts wrong by hitting his spots perfectly and outsmarting hitters. The 23-year-old right-hander dominated Triple-A last year to earn a mid-season promotion to the bigs. He struggled to a 5.84 ERA over 37 innings during his first stint with the Twins, but returned in September to post a 3.34 ERA over 29 2/3 innings while striking out 28 and walking just two. After allowing 13 home runs during his first stay with the team, Slowey surrendered just three during his September call-up. Clearly, this kid can make adjustments, and that ability might take him far in this league even if he never develops a true out pitch.

Wrapping Up the Offseason

The long, cold offseason is finally coming to a close, with pitchers and catchers reporting to Ft. Myers on Sunday. Next week I'll have an offseason review piece, as well as a Spring Training preview, and within a couple weeks the Twins' exhibition schedule will be getting underway.

I don't have much to write about today, but here are a few notes:

* One pitcher who won't be reporting to Ft. Myers on Sunday is Francisco Liriano, who is having visa problems stemming from a 2006 DUI arrest. The process of getting things cleared up could take a little over a week. That's unfortunate news, considering that Liriano probably needs to be in camp more than any other pitcher on the staff being that he hasn't pitched in a major-league game in well over a year. The good news, however, is that within the article linked above, Joe Christensen mentions that Liriano "appears fully recovered the Tommy John elbow procedure he had in November 2006," noting that the left-hander "pitched two innings recently in a scrimmage at the Twins’ Dominican academy in Boca Chica."

There is not one player on the Minnesota Twins that I am looking forward to watching this year more than Liriano.

* On Wednesday I wrote about the Twins' signing of Livan Hernandez and concluded that, while not outrageous, it is not a particularly good move. Many fans seem satisfied with the signing, and I have seen numerous people voice sentiments that sound something like this: "Basically the Twins got another Carlos Silva for about half the money Silva is making in Seattle."

While Hernandez and Silva are both heavyset Latino right-handers, the comparison is probably not apt. Given his recent downward trends, I think it's a lot more likely that Hernandez pitches like Silva v. 2006 than Silva v. 2004, 2005 or 2007. Silva was never flashy, but for the majority of his time in Minnesota, he was a solid pitcher who kept the team in games and occasionally tossed a gem. It seems like he was a little under-appreciated, and he may be missed more than people realize, especially by those who seem to think Hernandez will step in and pick up right where Silva left off.

* Speaking of Hernandez, Christensen had an entry in his blog yesterday outlining the details of the newly acquired pitcher's contract, which includes an incentive whereby Hernandez will receive $100,000 if he wins a Cy Young Award this year. Apparently that's pretty standard, but it still seems kind of funny to me. I'd be fine with the Twins rewarding him with $100 million if he wins the Cy Young.

* Finally, here's the image that graced the front page of ESPN.com's MLB section yesterday:

Could that be any more depressing for a Twins fan?

Par for the Course

We all knew it was going to happen at some point. Under-budget and facing the prospect of a starting rotation devoid of experienced veterans, the Twins were going to go out and overpay for a free agent pitcher with a proven ability to eat innings. The Twins dabbled earlier in the offseason, signing guys like Randy Keisler and Zach Day to basically risk-free minor-league contracts, but yesterday the team made its "big splash," handing Livan Hernandez a one-year contract worth $5 million (plus incentives).

The Cuban-born Hernandez, who will (allegedly) turn 33 a week from today, is an 11-year major-league veteran who has spent his entire career in the National League, spending time with four different organizations. He is the definition of a workhorse, having thrown 200-plus innings in nine of those seasons (and 199 2/3 in one of the others). He led the National League in innings pitched for three consecutive years from 2003-05, and has finished in the top ten in that category seven times. He ranks 15th among active pitchers in total innings.

Unfortunately, along with being durable, Hernandez is also quite hittable and homer-prone, and not particularly dominant. There was a time when he posted some pretty good numbers to go along with those impressive innings totals -- during those 2003, 2004 and 2005 seasons where he led the NL in innings, Hernandez also kept his ERA under 4 and managed to strike out a reasonable number of hitters. Those days are in the past, however, and recent trends do not paint a pretty picture:

Year: ERA, K/9IP, WHIP
2004: 3.60, 6.56, 1.24
2005: 3.98, 5.37, 1.43
2006: 4.84, 5.06, 1.50
2007: 4.93, 3.96, 1.59

Obviously, these numbers are disconcerting. It stands to reason that, despite his (allegedly) relatively young age, Hernandez is already wearing down due to the high workload he has faced annually throughout his career. Now, with Hernandez another year older and switching to a better offensive league, there's every reason to believe that his numbers this season could slide into Ramon Ortiz territory.

Yet, I certainly wouldn't view this signing as negatively as the acquisitions of Ortiz and Sidney Ponson last year. For one thing, the Twins will probably only be filling one rotation spot with a washed up vet. That's much more palatable than the idea of promising 40 percent of your starts to Ponson and Ortiz, particularly when you consider that there is a lot less certainty in the rotation this season now that Johan Santana and Carlos Silva are gone. Let's break it down:

You'd like to think that Boof Bonser and Scott Baker are locks for two spots in the rotation, and hopefully Francisco Liriano can fill another spot. Given his dominance in Triple-A last year and his success with the Twins in September, I have to believe Kevin Slowey will make the rotation out of Spring Training. As I explained on Monday, I believe Phil Humber will start the season pitching out of the bullpen, so had the Twins not acquired Hernandez we would likely be left with a battle between Glen Perkins, Kevin Mulvey, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing for the final spot in the rotation. Given that Perkins and Mulvey have essentially no experience at the Triple-A level, both could probably benefit from starting the season there, and it's not clear that either Blackburn or Duensing are ready to pitch in the Twins' rotation yet. Slotting Hernandez in that final rotation spot allows all four pitchers to start the season in Rochester (or perhaps, in some cases, the Twins' bullpen) and step in should any of the other five starters suffer an injury or prove ineffective.

While I'm not outraged with this signing, I'm not particularly fond of it either. There are two camps among fans when it comes to the 2008 Twins: one camp believes this team has a legitimate shot at competing, the other one doesn't. No matter which camp you belong to, there is little reason to get excited about this signing. If the Twins truly can compete this season, it's highly unlikely that Hernandez will provide better production as a starter than one of the Blackburn/Duensing/Perkins/Mulvey group would be able to provide, so he's not really enhancing their chances. If the Twins can't compete, then this is a rebuilding year and player development will be the key goal, in which case there's a good chance Hernandez will be hindering the development of at least one of those young pitchers.

Just as they have with many of their other free agent signings over the past few years, the Twins are bringing in an aging veteran who was good at one point but is not very good anymore, and banking on that veteran returning to something close to his old form. As we've seen with Ponson, Ortiz and Tony Batista, this just doesn't happen very often, and what you see is usually what you get with players like these. More than likely, that will be the case with Hernandez. Nevertheless, he does create some depth in the pitching staff, and immediately becomes the only player on the roster who has pieced together a full season in a major-league rotation. There's some value in that, and we'd be ignorant to overlook it.