Winter Meetings Wrap-Up

The winter meetings came to a close yesterday without any meaningful activity from the Twins, which is hardly surprising. Last offseason, it took Bill Smith and Co. until February to make any significant moves, so the fact that the team has already addressed two major areas of need by trading for J.J. Hardy and locking up Carl Pavano for another season should help satisfy hot-stove hungry fans.

Despite the slew of moves that took place this week, plenty of intriguing players remain available in free agency and the Twins have been connected to several trade rumors, so there will be plenty of stuff to track in the coming weeks. With that being said, I expect a lull until at least the turn of the new year.

A few more notes to wrap up the week of winter meetings...

* After designating him for assignment earlier this week, the Twins have traded Boof Bonser to the Red Sox for a player to be named later. This is good in that the Twins would have gotten nothing in return for losing Bonser had he gone unclaimed and become a free agent this weekend, but the player they ultimately receive from Boston will likely be a low-level prospect with marginal upside.

* The Rule 5 draft took place yesterday. The Twins didn't select any players nor have any poached away in the major-league phase. Twins' farmhands Angelo Sanchez and Winston Marquez were both selected in the minor-league phase of the draft, but neither pitcher is a major loss.

* Finally, I did a Twins-related Q&A this week over at the blog SimonOnSports. You can check that out here.

Worst Case Scenario

The Twins kicked off a brand new year of baseball with their first competitive action last night, but excitement was subdued in the wake of news that Boof Bonser's season is likely over after an exploratory surgery procedure earlier in the day revealed tears in his labrum and rotator cuff. This is essentially the worst injury a pitcher can sustain, leaving Bonser with a long road to recovery and less-than-great odds of ever returning to his previous level of effectiveness.

This news didn't really come as a shock to me, if only because I've become conditioned to expect the worst in situations such as this. I've written about Bonser twice in the past week so I don't know how much more I can expound upon the subject of his loss. He's been a better pitcher than his numbers have shown over the past year, and struck me as the only member of the Twins' current group of bullpen arms with good enough stuff to perhaps step into a setup role and develop into a fearsome right-handed force in front of Joe Nathan. The Twins bullpen contains plenty of serviceable relief pitchers, but with Bonser and Pat Neshek out for the year, it lacks righty power arms outside of Nathan. Bonser has fanned 7.3 batters per nine innings over the course of his major-league career (9.49 as a reliever) while Neshek's strikeout rate registers at 10.6 K/9IP. Among the group of Jesse Crain, Luis Ayala, Craig Breslow, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Philip Humber, only Breslow has a career big-league strikeout rate above 6.1, and he's tossed only 75 innings as major-leaguer.

Now, it's not impossible to be an effective reliever with a pedestrian strikeout rate, and it's fairly likely that a couple of the remaining hurlers -- such as Crain and Mijares -- will post relatively decent strikeout totals this year. But losing Bonser and Neshek hurts because it takes away the two right-handers who could really be relied upon to come in and throw the ball past tough hitters. Unless Robert Delaney can rise fast or Humber can pull everything together and blossom into the dominant reliever I theorized he might be capable of becoming when the Twins first acquired him, it seems the Twins only shot at finding a dominating right-handed eighth-inning guy for this season would be a move to bring in Juan Cruz. Such an acquisition remains unlikely, but the pressure is building on the Twins; this is going to be a long season if the bullpen continues to be as unreliable as it was late last year.

As a final note, I'll comment on some of the fan frustration being directed toward the Twins' team doctors for their handling of Bonser's situation. It seems clear that Bonser has been having issues with his shoulder for some time now and on the surface this certainly appears to be a situation that could have been addressed much sooner. Yet, the same could have been said about Neshek's situation last year, and this was my take when the team announced he'd need Tommy John surgery in November:

There were plenty out there who vocally opined that the team should bite the bullet and have Neshek go through surgery immediately; indeed, had this been their course of action the reliever probably would have been able to return sometime around June or July of next year rather than sitting out the entire campaign.

The finger-pointing, though, is ultimately pointless. There's little doubt that both the player and the team strongly preferred to avoid surgery if at all possible, and as Joe Christensen made sure to note in his blog post on the news, when Neshek first suffered the injury "he received a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews, who agreed with the Twins recommendation to rehab the injury, instead of having surgery."

My reaction to Bonser's situation is basically the same. While this injury may have been discovered earlier had different steps been taken months ago, surgery quite frankly sucks and should always be a last resort. If MRI exams revealed nothing serious and expert doctors truly believed there was a good chance the problem was a bad case of tendonitis that could be healed with rest, then there's really no reason not to at least try that course of action.

Unfortunately, that didn't work out, and the prognosis for Bonser is rough. Not only does this serious injury almost certainly cost him the 2009 season, it puts his entire career in jeopardy and puts his future with the Twins very much in question. I'm dearly hoping that Bonser can ultimately make a full recovery, but in the meantime concerns will revolve around the Twins' ability to find a right-handed pitcher who can be counted on late in games, because they've just lost one of their top candidates to do so.

Bonser Down

When news surfaced recently that Boof Bonser had been having trouble throwing during the offseason and received a cortisone shot in his shoulder to alleviate some soreness, I feared the worse in spite of reports that previous MRI exams had revealed no structural damage. Perhaps it’s because I’m a worrywart, or perhaps it’s because I’ve become jaded after many years of following sports and learning that seemingly every minor injury eventually transforms into something more significant. Sure enough, it was revealed yesterday that Bonser will undergo exploratory surgery today “to get to the bottom of why he’s having shoulder problems.”

Now, this is a potentially minor operation and if the surgeon ultimately discovers that the problem is not serious, Bonser can still be a factor for the Twins this season. However, it does seem almost certain at this point that he will at least open the season on the disabled list (which, as I mentioned last week, isn’t necessarily a bad thing), and if the Bonser’s issues are significant he could be on the shelf for most or all of the season.

A season-ending injury would be a tough blow for Bonser-backers (a collection I’d group myself in). With his 96-mph heat and nasty curveball, the hefty right-hander seemingly had a decent chance of helping revive the Twins’ battered bullpen if he could harness his stuff. Now, at the very least he’ll have a rocky road as he tries to capture a significant role in the ‘pen during the season while recovering from shoulder surgery. At worst, his time with the Twins might be done.

It’s possible that Bonser’s absence will put some added urgency into the team’s reported pursuit of Juan Cruz, but I remain skeptical about the likelihood of such a move taking place. Cruz would be a tremendous addition for the Twins, but working out a contract with him and his agent while also hammering out a compensation agreement with the Diamondbacks would be a tall order. While the Twins may step up their efforts to acquire Cruz, I think it’s equally likely that they take advantage of their newfound roster flexibility and carry both Philip Humber and Jose Mijares north in April while stashing Bonser on the DL.

I’m truly hoping that when the results of Bonser’s exploratory surgery are announced, the news is good. But given the history of these types of situations, I’m not terribly optimistic.

Bonser's Pains: Burden or Blessing?

Yesterday, we learned that Boof Bonser has been scheduled to undergo another MRI on his ailing right shoulder. Tests taken a couple months ago reportedly revealed no structural damage, but Bonser has struggled to throw the baseball this offseason and saw no improvement in a throwing session on Wednesday.

The team seems to think this is just a bad case of tendonitis that will eventually go away, but Bonser’s words haven’t struck me as particularly optimistic. In a La Velle E. Neal III report published earlier this week, the right-hander was quoted as saying, “It was bothering me. I started playing catch and throwing off the mound (after the New Year) and I really couldn’t do it. So we stretched it out and finally got the cortisone shot. Here I am right now.” … “Here I am right now”? Does that sound like a guy who is confident he’s on the verge of putting these issues behind him and getting to work?

If Bonser’s upcoming MRI reveals something more serious than a case of tendonitis, it will likely lead to a a stint on the disabled list at the beginning of the season. That’s unfortunate, because Bonser showed some promising flashes late in the 2008 season after moving into the bullpen, and he has the stuff to become a force as a reliever. However, the Twins can’t really be counting on Bonser for much considering he finished last season with an ugly 5.93 ERA. Plus, Bonser opening the season on the DL would potentially relieve the Twins of some headaches when it comes to constructing a bullpen, as they’d be able to bring Jose Mijares north as a second left-hander without the risk of losing either Bonser or Philip Humber.

I’m hopeful that Bonser’s shoulder issues don’t turn out to be anything particularly serious, and I could easily see him stepping up as a key contributor in the bullpen this year. With that said, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if he were to open the season on the DL, allowing the team some extra time to sort out the bullpen situation.

Odd Man Out

On Saturday afternoon, I met with a few Twins bloggers at Joe Senser's in Bloomington to discuss baseball over snacks and drinks. The gathering provided me with an opportunity to meet John Meyer (of Twins Most Valuable Blogger) and Parker Hageman (of Over the Baggy) for the first time, catch up with the affable Seth Stohs, and engage in another friendly yet contentious debate with John Bonnes over Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young (suffice to say we fall on opposite ends of the spectrum in our standpoints on both players). The outing also afforded my mother the opportunity to, upon learning of my plans from my Facebook status, take the following shot: "What kind of luncheon do people go to at 2:30 in the afternoon? Oh wait, this is a bloggers luncheon." Well played, mom.

Of course, we also had to talk a little bit about what qualifies as perhaps the Twins' biggest offseason move thus far -- the signing of reliever Luis Ayala to a one-year, $1.3 million deal. And that's just what we did... talk about it a little bit. Ayala just isn't someone worth getting excited about. He's got a history of pitching well, having posted a sub-3 ERA in each of his first three seasons as a big-leaguer, and he has some experience closing games. But he's 31 years old, missed the 2006 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and posted a 5.74 ERA and 1.45 WHIP between the Nationals and Mets last year. A right-handed reliever who has a history of posting solid ERA figures despite underwhelming peripherals and who is looking to bounce back from a miserable 2008 campaign... Ayala basically seems like another Matt Guerrier.

Now, I don't mean to say that Ayala is a terrible addition. He's a sinker specialist who seemingly has a decent chance to provide some quality innings this year, and it's tough to pout too much about a one-year commitment at just over a million dollars. What I find more interesting is that the signing of Ayala could very well signal that either Boof Bonser or Philip Humber is gone. Both those players are out of options, and the Twins were going to have a hard time bringing them both north out of spring training as it was. By signing Ayala to a contract and (at least in my view) essentially guaranteeing him a spot in the bullpen, the Twins are seemingly pushing one of the Bonser/Humber duo out the door.

Prior to Ayala's signing, a seven-man bullpen for the Twins would have probably looked like this: Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow, Jose Mijares, Bonser and Humber. With Ayala entering the fray, the Twins will either have to start Mijares in Triple-A or say goodbye to one (or both) of Bonser and Humber. That could present a difficult decision for Ron Gardenhire. While there's technically no downside to starting Mijares in the minors (and it's probably the option I'd choose), this would leave the Twins with only one lefty in the bullpen and would rob the team of its best non-Nathan relief option during the last month of the 2008 season.

If it comes down to it, the choice between Bonser and Humber is not an easy one. Bonser showed some devastating stuff after moving to the bullpen last season, and members of the organization have publicly mused that he could eventually blossom into a dominant setup man, so this doesn't seem like the proper time to give up on him. Humber came on strong in the second half for Rochester last year, and allowing one of the four prospects that came back in the Johan Santana trade to simply walk away one year later would probably not reflect well upon the organization.

While it makes sense to carry all these pitchers into spring training and let things sort themselves out (at least one of these relievers is bound to get hurt or perform horribly), there's some risk involved in this course of action. Humber and Bonser are both talented enough to have some semblance of trade value, so carrying them to the end of spring training and then being forced to lose them while getting nothing back would be a mistake worth avoiding.

Signing Ayala doesn't strike me as the type of move that provides a clear, decisive upgrade to the bullpen, but it could pan out. If, however, the move forces the Twins to part with either Bonser or Humber while receiving nothing in return, it could end up hurting more than it helps.

Bronx Bombed

After a good series against the Texas Rangers over the weekend, the Twins dropped an egg last night against the Yankees, losing 12-4. Unfortunately, there aren't too many positives to pull out of the game, but there are plenty of observations to consider:

* Admittedly, it's hard these days to continue to defend Boof Bonser when he seems to give up runs and hits every time he's on the hill. And that would be reality, not merely perception, as he's given up runs in seven of his last eleven appearances. With his ERA now at a sky-high 6.59, things continue to look bad for Boof. The positive, as with most of his ugly appearances, is that he's at least showing some signs of potential, as he struck out three hitters in the 3 1/3 innings he pitched. Also, no one can deny some bad luck, which was clear on hits like Johnny Damon's soft pop fly RBI double.

* Nick Blackburn also ran into some bad luck, which has been somewhat the story of his season. Blackburn's 7-6 record is not necessarily indicative of his quality of pitching and last night offers at least some examples of that issue. Alexi Casilla's error that continued the rough second inning stands out, but the defense for the Twins in general wasn't particularly good last night. Of course, there is nothing the defense can do about certain things, like Alex Rodriguez's two-run homer.

* Losing twice to Sidney Ponson is something that has to hurt for Twins, as much as it hurts as a fan. The previous loss was certainly more embarrassing, as the Twins managed only six hits in a complete game victory for Ponson, but this time around wasn't much better because there was a lack of execution as evidenced by scoring only three runs off of Ponson despite putting 11 base-runners on in 5 2/3 innings.

* Denard Span continued his impressive hitting last night, going 3-for-4 with the Twins' only two extra-base hits, with a double and a triple. Span still only has 85 at-bats, but that .329/.424/.429 line is looking pretty good right now. I may have pegged him to disappoint in the second half, but Span is still showing a solid stick and should have a line Twins fans can be satisfied with by the end of the year.

* Alexi Casilla is the only other Twin to really have much of a night on offense. He went 3-for-5 with two RBI and a run scored. While his .320 average is looking good right now, it does still conceal a lack of power and patience. The lack of power is something Twins can easily look over, but Casilla is going to have to start improving his walk rate at the top of the order. His OBP is not embarrassing at all (.358), but being projected for only 32 walks is, as evidenced by a meager .038 Isolated Discipline.

* Tonight, the Twins put Kevin Slowey on the hill. Slowey's last start was terrible, when his ERA jumped from 3.78 to 4.26 after giving up six runs to the Tigers in only 3 2/3 innings. Though he wasn't much better in the start before, he had been excellent in four starts between June 13 and June 29. Hopefully, Slowey can get back on track tonight, as he has shown a good ability to bounce back from the few terrible starts he has had this year.

Livan on the Edge

Back on May 16, I posted an article titled The Truth About Boof, in which I examined the performance of Boof Bonser (who was then 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA) and Livan Hernandez (who was then 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA). The post came in reaction to cries for Bonser to be removed from the rotation, and my basic contention was that Bonser was not pitching nearly as poorly as his basic numbers suggested, whereas the opposite was true of Hernandez. I predicted that the numbers would start to reflect these truths as time went on, and concluded the post by stating "there is plenty of reason to believe that the hefty Cuban is due for some decline while Bonser improves, so one month from now I think we could very easily be hearing the same cries of outrage directed at Hernandez."

Exactly one month later, it certainly appears that I've whiffed on Bonser. He was demoted to the bullpen just a few starts after I wrote the article, and he has now been charged with earned runs in four of his five appearances as a reliever. I maintain that Bonser is not nearly as bad a pitcher as many seem to believe (through it all, he still has a 4.48 xFIP and his strikeout rate has been good since he joined the bullpen), but with his 6.45 ERA, it's pretty tough for me to stand by Bonser at this point.

Nevertheless, my remarks regarding Hernandez have proven prescient. He began a precipitous decline almost immediately after I made that post, and has gone 0-3 with a 9.38 ERA and .438 BAA in six starts since, allowing more than two hits per inning during that span while averaging less than six innings per start. Calls for Hernandez to be booted from the rotation have begun to surface, and indeed, that moment may not be too far off.

I can hardly feel smug about my prognostication on this one. To many, Hernandez's downfall was as predictable as John McCain starting a speech with the phrase, "My friends." Quite simply, Hernandez's strategy of not striking anyone out and letting opposing hitters hit the ball (and hard) was not going to yield remotely successful results for an extended period of time. No amount of veteran moxie or guile can magically cause batters to hit line drives directly at fielders. Eventually Hernandez's utterly hittable stuff was going to catch up with him, and it certainly appears that that time has come.

A stark parallel can be drawn between the paths taken by Hernandez this year and by another veteran free agent signing for the Twins from last season, Ramon Ortiz. Much like Hernandez, Ortiz was a mid-30s right-hander with declining numbers who many felt the Twins overpaid for. Similar to Hernandez, Ortiz got his Twins career off to a surprising start, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA through his first five starts. Yet, just like with Hernandez, Ortiz's luck quickly caught up with him, as he went 0-3 with a 10.97 ERA over his next five starts before being demoted to the bullpen at the end of May. Hernandez's success lasted a little longer, so the Twins are showing a bit more patience with him, but I can't imagine he's long for the rotation with the way he's getting battered in every outing.

By letting batters put the ball in play consistently, Hernandez has been living on the edge. After a surprisingly strong start, that strategy has stopped working as of late. There's no reason to believe it will start working again soon. So how long until Hernandez follows Bonser's fate?

Flipping the Byrd

There's nothing all that remarkable about Paul Byrd. He doesn't strike people out, he gives up a decent number of hits, and he doesn't get all that many ground balls. He throws the ball in the strike zone and lets batters hit it. That is a strategy that has historically worked for him against the Twins, as he entered last night's game with a 10-3 career record and 3.50 ERA against the hometown nine.

Yet the Twins, mired in their worst slump of the season, would have no more of that business last night. They jumped on Byrd for five runs in the third inning and got a strong start from Nick Blackburn, leading them to a victory to end their six-game skid, in spite of a scare thanks to the bullpen.

Ron Gardenhire gets a lot of credit for the way he manages the bullpen, and deservedly so, but last night I really thought he over-managed. After replacing Blackburn to start the sixth, Boof Bonser put a pair of runners on with a walk and a ground ball base hit. Yet, he came back to get an out on a liner back to the mound and then struck out Jamey Carroll on a nice breaking ball. Bonser seemed on the verge of working out of his sticky situation, but rather than allowing the former starter to try and retire Grady Sizemore and get out of the inning, Gardenhire went to Dennys Reyes. While Sizemore was hitting just .219 against lefties this season, he sported a .367 on-base percentage and 758 OPS, neither of which are really all that far below his overall marks. Admittedly, Reyes was probably a better match-up against Sizemore than Bonser -- and it was certainly tough to predict that Sizemore would rip a three-run homer off the lefty Reyes -- but I think this is a situation where Gardenhire really should have let Bonser finish the inning. The guy isn't a situational middle reliever; he's a converted starter trying to regain confidence.

Alas, Reyes let in both of his inherited runners and Bonser saw his ERA shoot up to 6.19, really through no fault of his own. It's just been that kind of season for Boof.

In any case, the rough patch between Bonser and Reyes ultimately wound up being irrelevant because Jesse Crain and Joe Nathan shut the Indians down the rest of the way while Alexi Casilla and Justin Morneau chipped in ninth inning RBIs to seal a comfortable 8-5 win.

Juggling the Rotation

Changes are coming for the Twins rotation. Scott Baker pitched in extended spring training yesterday and is scheduled to do so again on Saturday. If all goes well, he will return to Minnesota and the Twins will get back their best starter.

Of course, this means that someone will have to move out of the rotation to make room for Baker. Glen Perkins was initially called up as a temporary fill-in while Baker rehabbed, but with the way he's pitching, there's no way he's going anywhere. After earning his second win in the Twins' 6-1 victory over the Tigers on Sunday, Perkins now sports a 2.77 ERA in four starts. He has issued only four walks over 26 innings, which may be the most impressive aspect of his stint with the Twins considering his history. Perkins strikes me as a guy who perhaps dials up his performance based on the level of competition; his numbers in the high minors were never overwhelming, but he holds a 2.83 ERA over 60 1/3 big-league innings. As long as he can remain focused and aggressive, I see no reason why he can't continue to be successful with the Twins.

With Perkins performing well and Livan Hernandez and Nick Blackburn holding their own, Boof Bonser looks like the odd man out. Bonser has gotten poor results in the month of May, and while I don't necessarily think a string of four bad starts warrants a demotion (particularly when the peripheral numbers suggest that Bonser hasn't even pitched all that poorly for the most part), I would have no qualms with seeing him moved out of the rotation at this point since the Twins need Baker and everyone else has earned the right to stay.

Bonser is out of options, so he won't be heading to Rochester. The most likely scenario is that he moves to the bullpen when Baker returns. Pitching in shorter stints might help Bonser rebuild his confidence, although considering the first-inning struggles he has experienced at times this season, it could be that he needs to get into a groove, in which case pitching in relief may not be the best thing for him. Either way, it seems inevitable. Even though Joe Christensen wrote yesterday that Bonser's start against the Yankees on Friday "might be his last chance to keep his rotation spot," I believe the writing is already on the wall. Unless something changes dramatically over the course of the next week, I think we'll see Bonser in the bullpen quite soon. And as much as I've defended Bonser, I don't necessarily think that's the wrong choice at this point in time.

The Truth About Boof

I was going to spend today's post writing about a costly lack of fundamentals that caused the Twins to lose three straight games against the Blue Jays this week, thus putting a disappointing cap on a homestand that started out so promisingly. But instead, there's another topic I'd like to delve into. And that is Boof Bonser.

After his latest poor outing on Wednesday night, fans are turning on Bonser in droves. For whatever reason, it seems like much of the fan base has always had it in for Boof, and his latest three-game slump has brought complaints to a fever pitch. The Twins generally have a fairly intelligent and patient group of followers, so I have to say I'm a little surprised by what I view as an extremely unfair fan response to Bonser's struggles. Not only would a demotion to the bullpen or minors for Bonser be reactionary and unwarranted, it would be downright stupid.

Bonser's last three starts have been ugly, there's no doubt about it. During that span, he has allowed 16 earned runs over 16 innings for a 9.00 ERA. Yet, it seems to me that the fans who are complaining loudly about Bonser's performance this year are either plagued by short-term memory or are actively choosing to ignore the good things he's done. Over his first six outings of the season, Bonser tossed five Quality Starts, though he gained only two wins thanks to some lousy run support. Bonser finished the month of April with an ERA under 4.

Even with his past three starts taken into account, Bonser's numbers for the season really aren't that bad when you take a deeper look. Yes, he is 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA, but his case illustrates a perfect example of why win/loss record and ERA are not the most telling measures of a pitcher's performance, in spite of the fact that they are the ones most often quoted in the media.

Let's compare the performances of Bonser and the team "ace" Livan Hernandez on the season. As I mentioned, Bonser has a 2-5 record and an ugly 5.37 ERA through nine starts, whereas Hernandez has surprised everyone by going 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA over the same number of starts. Looking at those numbers, one could easily conclude that Hernandez has been the better pitcher. But taking a look at some more intuitive statistics, we'll find that this isn't necessarily true:

	Bonser	Hernandez
IP	52	57.2
K/BB	33/15	21/11
HR Allowed	5	9
Opp. OPS	700	820
FIP	3.92	4.21
xFIP	4.48	4.59

Bonser and Hernandez have both gotten roughly two strikeouts for each walk, but opposing hitters have slugged just .390 against Bonser, as opposed to .485 against Hernandez. This is a big part of the reason that fielding-independent statistics like FIP and xFIP indicate that the two pitchers have been a whole lot closer in performance than their win-loss record or ERA will tell us.

Now, to be fair, I'll note that Bonser is likely to start giving up more home runs, because his current 7.8 percent home run/fly ball rate is unsustainably low (Hernandez's is 13.1), but it's also worth noting that Bonser is currently only inducing ground balls at a 38.4 percent rate after posting percentages of 45 and 41.7 in his first two seasons, so we can expect him to cut down on the fly balls to some degree. Meanwhile, Hernandez's current 42.7 percent ground ball rate is likely to come down given that he hasn't posted a GB% over 40 since 2004. Moreover, I suspect that Bonser's K-rate will rise at least a bit, while Hernandez isn't real likely to start missing any more bats with his 85-mph "heat."

All of this is a very long-winded way of saying that Bonser has not pitched as poorly as his numbers indicate, and that there's actually a pretty good argument that he has pitched at least as well as Hernandez. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not one of the people that swears by statistics like FIP and DIPS to the point where I blissfully ignore reality. Hernandez has allowed fewer runs and has helped the Twins win more games, and he deserves commendation for that. But there is plenty of reason to believe that the hefty Cuban is due for some decline while Bonser improves, so one month from now I think we could very easily be hearing the same cries of outrage directed at Hernandez. And I hope people will be counting their lucky stars that Bonser wasn't sent down to Rochester.

Bonser the Stopper

The last time Boof Bonser had pitched, he'd gone six innings against the Athletics and allowed just two runs. Yet, as has routinely been the case for Bonser this year, he'd gotten pathetic run support (in this case, the Twins were shut out) and lost.

Since that start last Wednesday, the Twins' rotation had spun out of control. In those four games between Bonser's outings, Twins' starters had posted a 15.53 ERA, and only one (Nick Blackburn on Friday) had lasted more than 4 1/3 innings in a start. Obviously, this had been very taxing on the bullpen and very humiliating for the team. Needless to say, last night's start was a big one for Bonser. The Twins needed him to be their stopper. And Boof came through.

In classic fashion, the Twins didn't provide him with much run support. Jason Kubel hit a two-run homer in the fourth inning which Mike Lamb followed with a sacrifice fly, but that was the extent of scoring for the Twins. That makes six starts for Bonser this season, and six games where the Twins have failed to score more than three runs.

That doesn't leave much room for error for Bonser, but fortunately he was up to the task last night. He held the White Sox offense scoreless through six frames before allowing a solo homer to Joe Crede with two outs in the seventh, and finished with the following line: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. A great outing.

For whatever reason, Bonser seems to get a lot of grief from Twins fans. I have heard numerous people tell me this year that he doesn't seem like a major-league pitcher, or that he should be the odd man out when Kevin Slowey returns from injury (this was before Francisco Liriano tanked), but I can't really understand why. Bonser has logged Quality Starts in five of his six outings this season, and now holds a 3.75 ERA to go along with a .250 BAA and 1.22 WHIP. Those aren't overwhelming numbers, but they certainly aren't bad. His 2-4 record quite clearly does not reflect the way he's pitched this year, and in fact I've got more confidence in him than probably any other pitcher in the rotation right now.

Well, There Goes the Perfect Season...

Here's how I started my analysis of Monday's season opener in yesterday's post:

Boy, tough to find anything not to like about last night's game. The Twins won 3-2, got a number of strong performances, and played good fundamental baseball. They left a ton of runs on the bases by going just 3-for-15 in scoring opportunities, but fortunately three was enough on this night thanks to some great pitching.

After watching the Twins suffer their first loss last night, my positive feelings about Monday's game feel like distant memories. In many ways, the Twins' 9-1 drubbing at the hands of the Angels last night was a polar opposite of Monday night's victory.

On Monday, Livan Hernandez was efficient and effective, delivering seven innings of two-run ball to pick up the victory. Last night, Boof Bonser -- while not terribly inefficient -- was far from effective, surrendering eight hits over six innings, including three doubles and a home run.

On Monday, the Twins played strong defense to support their starting pitcher. Last night, their fielding was shoddy, as they committed two errors and repeatedly failed to execute defensively.

On Monday, the bullpen was lights out, as Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan slammed the door in the eighth and ninth to protect a one-run Twins' lead. Last night, four Twins relievers combined to allow five runs (four earned), seven hits and three walks in three innings, effectively turning a loss into a blowout.

On Monday, the Twins made up for some poor situational hitting (3-for-15 in scoring opportunities) by running the bases well and scraping runs across with some big hits. Last night, they managed only one run on seven hits and one walk, wasting rare base-runners by grounding into two double plays.

In short, Monday night's game was a blast to watch and last night's was excruciating. The pitching struggles for the Twins weren't overly surprising, as I've come into th season expecting plenty of uneven performances from this young staff. I am, however, very disappointed with the offense's ineptitude. Justin Morneau has failed to collect a hit in his first two games, which in and of itself isn't particularly alarming but raises some concern when viewed in combination with his terrible spring and brutal August/September last season. The Twins managed only one extra-base hit in the game and pounded the ball into the ground consistently.

One bad game can certainly be excused, but last night's offensive performance was painfully reminiscent to last year.

Tonight the Twins face a new challenge, with Joe Saunders representing the first left-handed starter they have faced this year. Southpaws posed an especially large problem for the Twins' hitters last year, but the hope is that the addition of hitters like Delmon Young, Craig Monroe and Brendan Harris can help with that issue.

Meanwhile, Nick Blackburn will make his first start of the season for the Twins. I'm actually pretty excited to watch him this year. My expectations are relatively low because he's awfully old for a rookie and his overall minor-league numbers aren't particularly impressive; yet, it's tough to ignore the fact that he was outstanding in Rochester last season and had a very good spring for the Twins this year. And you've got to figure there's something behind Baseball America's decision to recently rank him as the organization's No. 1 prospect, despite his age and lack of a high profile. Heck, I've even seem him mentioned in some circles as a sleeper Rookie of the Year candidate.

Of course, since the Twins are facing the lefty Saunders tonight, it is highly likely that Monroe will be starting at DH over Jason Kubel, who was the only Twin with a hit during the first four innings of last night's game. Having Monroe in the lineup against a southpaw certainly isn't the worst thing in the world, but if he plays it will be mean he's been in the starting lineup twice as often as Kubel so far, which is unacceptable to me even three games into the season. And so, I'll finish my post with a little graphic I designed yesterday (which I've also added to the sidebar). It will probably become a rallying cry for me and perhaps others among the growing mass of fans frustrated with Ron Gardenhire's misuse of Kubel...

Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Analyzing the Twins' rotation is no easy task, mostly because we still don't really know for sure how it's going to shape up. In my Spring Training Preview several weeks ago, I predicted the the rotation would shake out as some ordering of Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Livan Hernandez, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey. With less than a week remaining before the season opener, there is still no certainty about who will open the season in the rotation (Baker could well open the season on the disabled list and Liriano in the minors), but all five of these guys remain in camp so they are the ones I'll analyze today.

Livan Hernandez
2007 Stats: 204.1 IP, 11-11, 4.93 ERA, 90 K / 79 BB, 1.60 WHIP

Despite the fact that he could very well be the least qualified member of this group, Hernandez is lined up to start the season opener against the Angels next Monday. There's not much reason to believe that the hefty right-hander will have much success this season; his numbers have been uniformly trending downward over the past several years and he's moving to a considerably better offensive league and division. Opponents batted .308 and hit 34 home runs against Hernandez last year, and he struck out only 11 more batters than he walked. I suppose there's a chance he'll buck the trends and find some success in Minnesota, but it's certainly not likely. We'll just have to hope he can hold his own and provide the Twins with some reasonably decent innings this season.

Scott Baker

2007 Stats: 143.2 IP, 9-9, 4.26 ERA, 102 K / 29 BB, 1.33 WHIP

Baker debuted with the Twins in 2005 and had some success, posting an excellent 3.35 ERA over 53 2/3 innings. He figured to be a large part of the team's plans in 2006, but unfortunately struggled mightily with a 6.37 ERA and .324 BAA. With players like Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey stepping up, Baker was pushed out of the minds of many fans and came into 2007 with much to prove. He came through, pitching great in Rochester to earn another trip to Minnesota, where he established himself as a reliable starter with exceptional control. Baker will look to build on that success this year, and there's no reason to believe he can't.

Boof Bonser

2007 Stats: 173 IP, 8-12, 5.10 ERA, 136 K / 65 BB, 1.53 WHIP

Bonser first came up in 2006 and pitched well enough to become the Twins' Game 2 starter in their playoff series against the Athletics. Last year, however, he struggled with control and stamina problems and finished the season with ugly numbers. Perhaps most alarming was his drop-off in the later innings; Bonser held opponents to a 760 OPS in innings 1-3, but that number shot up to 911 in innings 4-6. The Twins believed that the problem may have been related to his weight, so they asked him to slim down during the offseason. Bonser complied by shedding upwards of 20 lbs, and so far this spring the effects appear to be positive.

Francisco Liriano

2007 Stats: did not pitch

Working his way back from Tommy John surgery, Liriano has gotten mixed results this spring. He has been able to throw all of his pitches and has reportedly been pain-free, but has struggled with his command and hasn't been able to get near his 2006 velocity consistently. This season will likely be a difficult one for Liriano as he must learn how to pitch all over again with a new ligament in his elbow. Expectations should remain low, especially early in the season, but the kid certainly has the talent and ability to do some special things.

Kevin Slowey

2007 Stats: 66.2 IP, 4-1, 4.73 ERA, 47 K / 11 BB, 1.40 WHIP

In spite of his utter domination throughout the minor leagues, scouts have generally been reserved in their assessments of Slowey because he lacks devastating stuff and doesn't possess a legitimate "out pitch," like Bonser's curve or Liriano's slider. However, Slowey continues to prove the scouts wrong by hitting his spots perfectly and outsmarting hitters. The 23-year-old right-hander dominated Triple-A last year to earn a mid-season promotion to the bigs. He struggled to a 5.84 ERA over 37 innings during his first stint with the Twins, but returned in September to post a 3.34 ERA over 29 2/3 innings while striking out 28 and walking just two. After allowing 13 home runs during his first stay with the team, Slowey surrendered just three during his September call-up. Clearly, this kid can make adjustments, and that ability might take him far in this league even if he never develops a true out pitch.

Back In Action

I got my new laptop yesterday and I was excited to sit down and write an enthusiastic post about the Twins for today. Unfortunately, the team's dud of a performance in their series finally against the Royals makes that an exceedingly difficult task.

I am in no mood to write a long negative post about the team, but it's pretty tough to draw any positives from yesterday's 6-3 loss. Carlos Silva was pulled due to a groin injury after pitching two unimpressive innings. Kevin Slowey, who earlier in the day had been tabbed to replace Boof Bonser in the starting rotation for the remainder of the season, came in to relieve Silva but didn't have much success, pitching 3 1/3 innings and allowing three runs on a pair of homers. With his fly ball tendencies, it was a good bet that Slowey would be somewhat homer-prone in the big leagues, but he has now allowed 16 dingers in 48 major-league innings, which is a tad ridiculous. That's one every three innings.

The good news to come out of the game, from a pitching standpoint, is that Glen Perkins made his long-awaited return to the Twins, pitching a scoreless eighth while notching two strikeouts.

Silva's injury leaves his status uncertain, which adds some intrigue to the Bonser situation. As I mentioned above, the Twins announced yesterday that Bonser would be relegated to the bullpen for the rest of the year, with Slowey taking his spot in the rotation. With the exception of the month of May, the entire season has essentially been a struggle for Bonser, which is disappointing given the success he had down the stretch last year. I haven't given up on Bonser by any means, and it doesn't sound like the Twins have either, but I can't say I'm too distraught about their decision to move the burly right-hander to the bullpen for the time being. For one thing, the move gives Slowey a few starts to work on things before the season is over -- he's clearly too good for Triple-A but still out of his element in the majors. An additional benefit will be that the Twins can see what Bonser looks like out of the bullpen. Boof has three good pitches, but he has displayed stamina problems all year, so the idea of him succeeding as a reliever might actually have some merit. That could ultimately be useful when you consider the bullpen questions that the Twins will carry into next season.

Of course, there's a chance Bonser might not actually move to the bullpen at all in light of yesterday's events, as he may just take over Silva's spot in the rotation should the ailing Silva have to miss time. Another possibility is that Nick Blackburn could step in and make a start or two in place of Silva. Blackburn has looked pretty good in limited duty out of the 'pen; I'd be interested to see what he could do over five or six innings.

One thing I'm not interested in seeing anymore is Nick Punto starting over Brian Buscher. Also, what does it say about your team's depth when you use Rondell White, Matt LeCroy and Garrett Jones as pinch-hitters in the same game?

The Twins have the day off today, and tomorrow the Tigers visit for a weekend series.

On a final note, I'll mention this hilarious little comment that the always-insightful Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan sneaked into an article about the offseasons of NHL players yesterday:

He's [Wild center Wes Walz] an exceptional skater and fitness freak who has survived since his NHL debut in 1989 even though he scores about as often as a sports blogger.

See, Souhan is much more desirable to women because he goes into a building downtown and writes sports-related rants, unlike us sex-deprived bloggers who write such rants from home.

You stay classy, Jimmy.

The Flipside of .500

It's hard to believe, but the Twins are approaching rock bottom and have now slid beneath the .500 mark. The Twins were unable to hit any of the Angels' top pitchers -- from Kelvim Escobar to John Lackey to Jered Weaver yesterday -- and in doing so the Twins have utterly wasted their one big opportunity to squirm back into the playoff race. While the Twins lost five of six to the Angels and Royals, the top two teams in the AL Central standings -- the Indians and Tigers -- were having skids of their own, as both teams have gone 4-6 in their last ten games.

By not taking advantage of the poor play from the teams ahead of them, the Twins are essentially out of the playoff picture. They're not going to get the Wild Card, as either the streaking Yankees, one of the Central teams, Seattle, or maybe even Boston will be taking it. The Twins are seven games out in the Central lead and eight out in the Wild Card standings. Neither of those are necessarily insurmountable leads, but this team is not fooling anyone with their recent play.

Yesterday's game was only the most recent addition to a list of embarrassing losses for the Twins. Thankfully, the Twins didn't waste another great start, as Boof Bonser was just as miserable on the mound as the Twins hitters were at the plate. Bonser gave up nine hits, five runs, and four walks over 5 2/3 innings while striking out just three Angels, increasing his ERA to 4.77. The offense did score two runs, but most of the hitters were staggeringly bad, as five Twins went hitless, including Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter, and Michael Cuddyer, who went a combined 0-for-12. The few positives came with Joe Mauer going 2-for-4 with a double, Alexi Casilla collecting two hits, two stolen bases, and two runs scored (though he did commit his sixth error), and Jason Bartlett picking up both RBI with a sac fly and his third triple of the season.

Though any lingering postseason dreams for the Twins may have died with the Angels sweep, tonight's match-up should provide some great entertainment for any baseball fan, as Johan Santana faces off against Seattle's young ace Felix Hernandez. I'd like to keep some hope for the team to turn the season around, but with each loss like yesterday's, the Twins inch closer and closer toward avoiding the playoffs.

One Way Or Another

Last night's game had a flare for the unusual. The Angels' consistently productive cleanup hitter, Vladimir Guerrero, who entered the game hitting .326/.412/.535, went 0-for-4. Their dominant setup man, Scot Shields, who entered the game with a 1.98 ERA, gave up three earned runs on three hits and a walk while recording just one out in the eighth inning. And then there was Garrett Jones, the Twins' lumbering rookie first baseman, who hit his first major-league triple in the fifth inning.

And yet, all of that paled in comparison to the Twins' game-winning home run, which came off the bat of Joe Mauer and didn't even leave the ballpark. Just after the Angels had scored a pair of runs to tie the game in the top of the eighth, Mauer came up with runners on first and third in the bottom half of the inning and hit a line drive to deep center field. Angels' center fielder Gary Matthews gave chase but ran into the wall and collapsed as the ball ricocheted off the top of the wall and bounced back toward the infield. As the other Los Angeles outfielders ran after the ball, Mauer scampered around the bases and eventually touched home plate to record his first career inside-the-park home run. It was the first inside-the-park homer for the Twins in six years, and it generated a three-run lead which Joe Nathan certainly would not surrender, as the Twins went on to win 5-2 and clinch a series victory against the Angels.

Boof Bonser's start was also a bit out of the ordinary. His outing was excellent, which in and of itself is not all that strange, but the way he went about it wasn't exactly normal for him. Over the course of the season, Bonser has struggled to pitch past the sixth inning -- he had completed seven innings just three times in 19 starts. Last night, he pitched a career-high 7 2/3 innings. Over the course of the season, Bonser has been a fly ball pitcher. Last night he induced 14 ground balls compared to just nine fly balls. Over the course of the season, Bonser has been a strikeout pitcher who has struggled with his control. Last night, he struck out just one while issuing zero walks. However he went about it, there's no arguing with Bonser's results. Over 7 2/3 innings, he allowed just two earned runs on five hits. Through the first seven innings of the game, he allowed just three hits, two of which were doubles that were misplayed by the Twins' outfielders and could have been caught. In the third inning, Jason Kubel took a bad route on a Maicer Izturis line drive and it sailed over his head for a ground-rule double. In the fourth, Garret Anderson hit a routine fly-ball to center but Torii Hunter never managed to pick it up in the roof and it fell in front of him.

Unfortunately, the Angels' rally in the top of the eighth was predicated on another defensive miscue by Kubel, whose ill-advised dive turned a two-out single for Chone Figgins into an RBI triple which put the eventual tying run into scoring position. Those two runs were the only ones charged against Bonser, and they took away his chance at picking up his first win since June 10.

Even though the Twins scored five runs and won the game, the performance of the offense was disappointing, most notably that of the bottom third of the lineup (not surprisingly). The Twins 7-9 hitters (Jones, Darnell McDonald and Nick Punto) went 2-for-9 with two strikeouts and seven men left on base.

Despite some frustrating failures, the Twins managed to score enough runs one way or another and got a big victory. Today, they look for the sweep, with Matt Garza taking the hill against another promising young starter in Joe Saunders.

Eerie Repeat?

It's been mentioned on this site a few times over the four-game series against the Oakland A's that ended yesterday in a Twins' sweep, but it is awfully reminiscent of the way things went in 2003. Just as in that case, the Twins came out of the break well behind in the standings and have started off the second half with a bang. Of course, unlike in 2003 when they traded for Shannon Stewart, no big trade of any kind has been pulled off to help the Twins out. And as Patrick Reusse points out, the mighty Tigers and Indians don't exactly resemble the Royals of 2003.

The final game of the series yesterday resembled the one on Saturday. Both games were won 4-3, with each contest coming close due to the mistakes of a reliever that allowed two more runs to be charged to a starter that had pitched into the seventh effectively. In Saturday's case, it was Dennys Reyes giving up the hit and yesterday, it was surprisingly Matt Guerrier who ended up blowing a 2-1 lead by allowing a two-run single to Travis Buck.

Luckily for the Twins, two of their biggest bats came up huge in the clutch. Those bats belonged to Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. Morneau tied the game in the eighth with his only hit of the game -- a solo blast into the upper deck off of Santiago Casilla for his 25th homer of the season. Up until that point, Morneau had been very ineffective, leaving a total of five runners in scoring position. With the game tied in the ninth, Mauer gave the Metrodome crowd a walk-off hit -- a slow roller up the middle that got just sneaked through the infield. Naturally, it helped that Mauer's game-winner was set up by Luis Castillo's triple and Jason Bartlett's walk, but Mauer had a great offensive day overall, going 3-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base while raising his average to .312. On the contrary, Jason Kubel, who had been doing well in the month of June, spent the series doing absolutely nothing offensively and is now hitless in his past 14 at-bats with only one walk in that time.

As mentioned earlier, another starter, in this case Boof Bonser, completed six effective innings before getting charged with a few extra runs thanks to the ineffectiveness of a bullpen member. Bonser in total threw 6 1/3 innings, giving up five hits, three earned runs, and three walks while striking out six. Bonser was effective through six, giving up only the solo home run to Eric Chavez and completing two consecutive 1-2-3 innings before the unraveling in the seventh. Bonser wasn't fantastic overall, but he looked much better than he had throughout July, striking out plenty of batters while showing a good curveball and notably tossing his second quality start in a row. For Twins fans who recently watched Bonser's ERA balloon from 3.61 to 4.76, the last two starts have been very encouraging.

While the four-game sweep over the A's was both impressive and wonderful to watch, the next series is a far bigger test for the Twins. After a day off today, the Twins will open a series against the Tigers this week at the Metrodome. With the Twins currently six games behind the Tigers in the standings, this will be a huge set of games. Thankfully, Matt Garza looked good in his first start, Johan Santana is on a surge, and Scott Baker has looked a lot better in his recent starts. The Tigers will pose a much larger challenge than the A's from a pitching standpoint; let us hope for a repeat of past success again.

The Burden of Proof

Really, I take no pleasure in saying this or even alluding to it, but the points made by Ubelmann, Aaron Gleeman, and myself yesterday were only proven in yesterday's game. After scoring 32 runs in two games Friday, the Twins were absolutely dominated by Mark Buehrle. The seemingly paradoxical nature of the Twins offense can be beyond grating one day, like yesterday, and wonderful to watch the next.

What was the source of offensive ineptitude yesterday? Well, just to begin with, Ron Gardenhire decided to go against the White Sox's best pitcher (and one who has gone 18-10 with a 3.76 ERA against the Twins coming into the game) without Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel in the lineup. Those are two bats that went a combined 9-for-18 with one home run, four walks, and 12 RBI in the two games. Yes, Joe Mauer is 1-for-12 in his career versus Buehrle and Jeff Cirillo (who DHed) came into the game 3-for-8 versus Buerhle and Lew Ford is 14-for-42 (.333) against Buehrle. Thus, its somewhat defensible to give Ford the start over Kubel (even though Kubel is hitting .300 against lefties and Ford is hitting only .241), but such a small sample size is not enough to justify Cirillo over Mauer.

If anything, it would be far more defensible to have Cirillo start over Nick Punto, who is 6-for-19 against Buehrle, even though Punto is a far better defender but obviously a lesser hitter. I'm sure the logic behind it is that Mauer started both games of the double-header essentially, but unless he's hurt, I'm not sure why you don't let Mauer start at DH. With a hitter as good as Mauer, there shouldn't be concern over 12 mediocre at-bats against a pretty good pitcher.

As a result, the Twins offense didn't do very much. Mike Redmond and Luis Castillo each collected two hits with Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter, and Lew Ford picking up the other hits. However, with three double plays (from Cirillo, Punto, and Redmond), those hits were quickly erased. The Twins didn't manage a run until there was only one out left.

Its unfortunate, because starter Boof Bonser had a pretty good game, going a rare seven innings, allowing only four hits, three runs, and two walks while striking out four. Bonser was really only hurt by the two-run home run he gave up to Paul Konerko on a terrible fastball up over the plate, just where Konerko likes it according to Fox's "Hot Zone." Notably, it was the first time since May 18th against Milwaukee that Bonser has gone seven innings in a start and his first quality start since May 29th against the White Sox.

Things won't get better today, when the Twins face off against Javier Vazquez. Although Vazquez was not very good last year, he has been improved in 2007, going 5-5 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP (6th in the AL), and 100 Ks in 107 innings (9th in the AL). More importantly, Vazquez has had two starts already this year against the Twins and he's been dominant in those 13 innings, allowing only five hits and one run while striking out 12, which is good for a 0.66 ERA. The only good news is that the Twins managed five walks against him. Lets just hope the "good" Carlos Silva shows up.

Singled Out

I really don't think I'm going to be the first person to say this, but Scotty Ullger almost certainly does not do any research for his job. He has to be the most ill-prepared third base coach around. Last night isn't exactly the exception to the rule. Of course, he made a poor decision regarding Justin Morneau last Friday. However, there were also recent plays were he thought it was intelligent to send runners and challenge such great arms as Jeff Franceour and now Vernon Wells.

Twins fans love their Gold Glove center fielder Torii Hunter, but it's not a stretch to say Wells is a superior defender now. In the third inning, Ullger thought it wise to test his arm by sending Michael Cuddyer, who is not the greatest base-runner around, home from second on a Jason Kubel single. Greg Zaun blocked the plate well to get Cuddyer out, but the throw was there in plenty of time. Holding Cuddyer would have loaded the bases with one out for Mike Redmond. The Twins came away from that situation with only one run, which ended up costing them in an eventual 5-4 loss.

Clearly the loss can't be burdened on only Ullger's shoulders, but this isn't new and it's something that continues to be glossed over. Instead of questioning Ullger's decision, Dick and Bert and everyone else would rather talk about the great play by Wells and Zaun. Of course they made a great play, but Wells is a great defender and Zaun isn't a terrible backstop worth underestimating. Ullger should have been let go well over a decade ago, so there is no doubt that Ron Gardenhire and Terry Ryan love him for some reason. Thus, sadly things aren't about to change.

Naturally, there are plenty of other reasons for the Twins loss. The largest would have to be the offense's inability to get extra bases on even one of their 11 hits in the game. That's right, 11 hits, 11 singles. As a result, the offense left a total of six runners in scoring position with two outs, including two by Torii Hunter. Beyond the Twins' 11 hits, the Blue Jays also helped out with four errors in the game. Yet the Twins could only manage to squeak out four runs and couldn't take advantage of numerous opportunities, which is sad considering how hittable Towers has been this season.

Besides the offense, Boof Bonser had what can be best described as a ugly start. In six innings, he gave up seven hits and five earned runs while walking two and striking out only two, bringing his ERA up to 4.65. The worst part was watching Bonser give up a two-run blast to Zaun. The Blue Jays' catcher had a good year last year, but it was a career year largely out of place with regards to his career track, and this season he is hitting only .227. He might be hitting behind Frank Thomas, but much like the Twins lineup, it is more a result of lack of depth than anything else.

The bad news for the Twins is that it will be difficult for them to come out of the series with a split. Carlos Silva was great his last time out, which according to his pattern means he won't be so great this afternoon and his opponent A.J. Burnett has terrific stuff that has baffled Twins hitters in the past. Unless they can manage to hit themselves past first base, it's tough to see them getting a victory in the series finale.

No Miller Time

With a score like 16-3 and with a total of 23 hits by the opposing team, you aren't left with too much time to consider the offensive woes that continued last night. Yes, Jered Weaver stifled the Twins for seven innings, allowing a one run on Torii Hunter's solo home shot, but that clearly isn't the story. Considering such a terrible overall pitching performance, it's often hard to pinpoint who to blame for the loss.

Of the four Twins pitchers who pitched last night, only Pat Neshek didn't give up a run. Boof Bonser departed from his recent hot streak by giving up 12 hits and 6 earned runs over 5 1/3 innings while only striking out one hitter. Bonser didn't walk anyone, but he also gave up two home runs, after three straight starts without giving one up. Ramon Ortiz came in to replace Bonser, but Ortiz was just as horrible and hittable in relief as he was as a starter in May, as he gave up four hits, two runs, and a walk in 1 2/3 innings while throwing just 21 strikes on 38 pitches.

Though both Bonser and Ortiz were pretty bad, neither was even as unwatchable as Jason Miller. Miller had a few scoreless appearances after his recent call-up, but he showed the kind of batting practice stuff he has in full view last night. Miller managed to get only one out while walking two, serving up two home runs (including a grand slam), giving up of seven hits, and surrending a grand total of eight runs. Suddenly, his ERA sits at 18.00. Yikes.

FSN announcers Bert and Dick tried to make it seem as if things weren't going Miller's or the other Twins pitchers' way, suggesting that "everything was falling for the Angels," as if they were getting bloop hit after bloop hit. However, when you walk two batters, give up three doubles, and give up two home runs, you are clearly getting hit very hard. Consider this: in the 1/3 inning Miller pitched, he gave up more extra-base hits to the Angels then Bonser did in 5 1/3 innings.

While I believe that Bonser will bounce back, the performances of Ortiz and Miller clearly indicate the holes the Twins have currently in their bullpen. As long as Ortiz is pitching in blow-out games as a mop-up guy, I won't be concerned about him getting knocked around every few days. However, while it isn't clear what Miller's role is yet, this game should make it apparent that he can't be trusted to get out important outs. While Carmen Cali isn't close to a dominant lefty, he might offer a better lefty arm out of the 'pen then Miller seems to be able to.

It may seem that I'm being a bit harsh on Miller. Its true that he has a 3.34 ERA in 517 2/3 minor league innings with 507 strikeouts. Miller also had a 1.30 WHIP in that time, mainly due to the 199 walks he also administered. Miller may be useful in good time, but he has not shown particularly great stuff since being called up. More than suggesting that Miller isn't much of a pitcher, it's more notable to notice that the Twins bullpen has been left with only a few reliable options in Neshek, Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, and usually Juan Rincon. That, of course, is more than many bullpens have, but it still means that things might get dicey now and then when the team has to call on Ortiz, Miller, or Cali for that matter, who will most likely get knocked around sometime in the near future.

Unfortunately for the Twins, things won't get significantly easier in tonight's game. With youngster Scott Baker on the mound facing off against Kelvim Escobar, who has a 6-3 record and a 3.00 ERA this year, things seem to be in Angels' favor. Good news for the Twins and their fans that they probably won't be giving up 16 runs against tonight.