Monday, February 09, 2009

Odd Man Out

On Saturday afternoon, I met with a few Twins bloggers at Joe Senser's in Bloomington to discuss baseball over snacks and drinks. The gathering provided me with an opportunity to meet John Meyer (of Twins Most Valuable Blogger) and Parker Hageman (of Over the Baggy) for the first time, catch up with the affable Seth Stohs, and engage in another friendly yet contentious debate with John Bonnes over Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young (suffice to say we fall on opposite ends of the spectrum in our standpoints on both players). The outing also afforded my mother the opportunity to, upon learning of my plans from my Facebook status, take the following shot: "What kind of luncheon do people go to at 2:30 in the afternoon? Oh wait, this is a bloggers luncheon." Well played, mom.

Of course, we also had to talk a little bit about what qualifies as perhaps the Twins' biggest offseason move thus far -- the signing of reliever Luis Ayala to a one-year, $1.3 million deal. And that's just what we did... talk about it a little bit. Ayala just isn't someone worth getting excited about. He's got a history of pitching well, having posted a sub-3 ERA in each of his first three seasons as a big-leaguer, and he has some experience closing games. But he's 31 years old, missed the 2006 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and posted a 5.74 ERA and 1.45 WHIP between the Nationals and Mets last year. A right-handed reliever who has a history of posting solid ERA figures despite underwhelming peripherals and who is looking to bounce back from a miserable 2008 campaign... Ayala basically seems like another Matt Guerrier.

Now, I don't mean to say that Ayala is a terrible addition. He's a sinker specialist who seemingly has a decent chance to provide some quality innings this year, and it's tough to pout too much about a one-year commitment at just over a million dollars. What I find more interesting is that the signing of Ayala could very well signal that either Boof Bonser or Philip Humber is gone. Both those players are out of options, and the Twins were going to have a hard time bringing them both north out of spring training as it was. By signing Ayala to a contract and (at least in my view) essentially guaranteeing him a spot in the bullpen, the Twins are seemingly pushing one of the Bonser/Humber duo out the door.

Prior to Ayala's signing, a seven-man bullpen for the Twins would have probably looked like this: Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow, Jose Mijares, Bonser and Humber. With Ayala entering the fray, the Twins will either have to start Mijares in Triple-A or say goodbye to one (or both) of Bonser and Humber. That could present a difficult decision for Ron Gardenhire. While there's technically no downside to starting Mijares in the minors (and it's probably the option I'd choose), this would leave the Twins with only one lefty in the bullpen and would rob the team of its best non-Nathan relief option during the last month of the 2008 season.

If it comes down to it, the choice between Bonser and Humber is not an easy one. Bonser showed some devastating stuff after moving to the bullpen last season, and members of the organization have publicly mused that he could eventually blossom into a dominant setup man, so this doesn't seem like the proper time to give up on him. Humber came on strong in the second half for Rochester last year, and allowing one of the four prospects that came back in the Johan Santana trade to simply walk away one year later would probably not reflect well upon the organization.

While it makes sense to carry all these pitchers into spring training and let things sort themselves out (at least one of these relievers is bound to get hurt or perform horribly), there's some risk involved in this course of action. Humber and Bonser are both talented enough to have some semblance of trade value, so carrying them to the end of spring training and then being forced to lose them while getting nothing back would be a mistake worth avoiding.

Signing Ayala doesn't strike me as the type of move that provides a clear, decisive upgrade to the bullpen, but it could pan out. If, however, the move forces the Twins to part with either Bonser or Humber while receiving nothing in return, it could end up hurting more than it helps.

15 comments:

Unknown said...

Good reactions to the Ayala signing. I think you're right the actual signing is just a shrug of an issue, but the implications that it may have are much larger. We'll see how it plays out!

Great again to meet you Nick!

Unknown said...

I guess my profile isn't working. This is John!

Anonymous said...

Either the Twinks already have a plan for the 'pen, and someone's already the "odd man out," or they're going to see who throws the best in Spring Training, and let the chips fall where they may. I agree that the only way to get something out of Humber and Boof would be to trade one or both before the end of ST, or keep them both on the roster and send down Mijares (assuming no one else is on the DL, which is another alternative that wouuld enable them to keep both on the 40-man roster). I just don't see the Twinks breaking camp with only one leftie, so sending doesn't seem like a logical course of action unless he bombs out in ST. That leads me to conclude that they're rolling the dice and expecting some logical to break out in ST and/or someone going on the DL. Maybe they know something about someone we don't. That's another thing that will make ST interesting this year. I actually think someone's going to get traded (could be a starter, although I really hope not).

Nick N. said...

That leads me to conclude that they're rolling the dice and expecting some logical to break out in ST and/or someone going on the DL.

And that wouldn't be the worst plan. At least one pitcher is likely to experience some problems in ST. If it's a starter, you plug Bonser into the rotation and the problem is solved. If it's a reliever, then things work themselves out.

I just really don't like the idea of losing either Bonser or Humber for nothing.

PWHjort said...

I saw first hand as Ayala choked down the stretch for the Mets last season. Wasn't his fault, he's not a closer. However, he's a serviceable lefty and should help out the Twins' pen next year.

Nick N. said...

Ayala's right-handed.

Anonymous said...

Apparently he wasn't watching too closely

PWHjort said...

Ya, my mistake, mental error.

Anonymous said...

Is that bastisa? Nick

Nick N. said...

Is that bastisa? Nick

Yeah. It's just a joke. He's a favorite player to laugh about amongst friends. I actually have a Batista jersey shirt, too.

Anonymous said...

Nice the only twins jersey shirt I have is Joe Mays. Sadly it wasn't bought as a joke.

Marv said...

I apparently live in la-la land, as I keep hoping that the Twins continue to stockpile pitchers because they are going to trade for Uggla once his arbitration is settled. Otherwise I don't see a trade target out there that wasn't there months ago.
It could be that Mijaris isn't MLB ready, but I'd hate to count on that to avoid letting a pretty good pitcher walk away.

PWHjort said...

Is Uggla really worth trading for? If Uggla were on the free agent market I'd say he's worth the risk of signing, but the man will be 29 when the 2009 season begins. Plus, his defense is not very good. He has averaged 7 plays below average for the last 2 years good for 13th in the league. While his pop is good enough, does his defense warrant a roster spot in Minnesota? I think he's not worth giving up prospects for, but could do much better than Castilla.

Anonymous said...

would Humber or Bonder be enough for Uggla? Florida is always looking to shed salary and Uggla could make $5mm next year.

Nick N. said...

would Humber or Bonder be enough for Uggla? Florida is always looking to shed salary and Uggla could make $5mm next year.

Certainly not. Uggla is a power-hitting infielder who remains under team control for three years. The Marlins would require some significant prospects in return.