New York, New York (and Notes)

Let me start out today's post with a personal note that is somewhat relevant. On Thursday morning, I will be heading to New York for a short three-day trip. In and of itself, that's not all that exciting (well, for me it is because I've never been to The Big Apple), but what spices things up is that I'll be there on Super Bowl weekend as the Giants prepare to take on the Patriots in the year's biggest sporting event. Not only that, but it seems like there is a very good chance that Johan Santana will be traded to a New York team within the next week. I think it would be utterly crazy to be in New York at the time a trade was pulled off to send Santana to the Yankees or Mets. I'll walk around Times Square wearing my Santana jersey and I'll be sure to share what types of reactions or comments I get.

Anyway, a few notes from over the weekend:

* From the Department of Double Takes, check out this statement that the Pioneer Press' Charley Walters made when wrapping up a blurb predicting that Santana will be traded within the next ten days:

It's clear that Santana, acquired in a Rule 5 minor league draft trade deal in 1999, has become a baseball mercenary who doesn't care where he pitches as long he's paid the optimal amount.

I had to read this a couple times because it came out of nowhere within the context of the article. I wouldn't say that Walters' charge is "clear" at all -- at least it is not evidenced by anything he wrote in the article. Perhaps behind closed doors, Santana truly is the type of disloyal and greedy mercenary that Walters makes him out to be, but none of the quotes Santana has given to the media have really illustrated anything to that effect.

* Along with Walters' seemingly unsubstantiated jab at Santana, yesterday's edition of the Pioneer Press also featured an encouraging update on the progress of Francisco Liriano courtesy of Phil Miller. Says Frisco:

"There is nothing to tell anymore, because my arm feels great now. I can't say it hurts this much, or I still have this work to do, anything like that," Liriano said. "I think I'm ready to go, right now. There is no soreness, no pain, nothing. It's the same every time I throw - there's nothing for me to say because I can pitch normally."

The article goes on to state that Liriano is now throwing all of his pitches -- including the worrisome slider -- without pain and that he has no plans of making changes to his mechanics.

It's certainly great to hear these things, but I must confess I'm a little wary of taking Liriano's personal medical judgments at face value. As many will recall, Liriano downplayed the significance of his elbow issues during the 2006 season, and it later came to light that he was pitching through some serious pain. Hiding his injury may have worsened the problems for Liriano. With that, said, if what he's saying now is true, and he can continue to pitch pain-free through spring training and into the season, the Twins might have their ace after all even with Santana gone. That'd be great, because as much as I like Scott Baker, the idea of having him featured as the team's No. 1 starter is a bit frightening.

* I didn't make it to TwinsFest this weekend, but I've heard from people that were there and encountered Boof Bonser that the slimmed-down right-hander was barely recognizable. Apparently Bonser responded to challenges from his coaches to lose some weight and shed 20 lbs during the offseason. After a disappointing 2007 campaign, a rebound year for Bonser could be crucial to this rotation.

* Speaking of TwinsFest, be sure to check out the Curlz and Curveballs blog for a nice series of photos from the couple's Friday night trip to the Metrodome gathering.

* Here's a name to add to the long list of people who are fully aware that Michael Cuddyer should not be playing center field: Michael Cuddyer. It seems that the only name not on that list could well be that of the Twins' manager.

You Better Lock It Up!

As the annual TwinsFest celebration kicked off at the Metrodome yesterday, the Twins made a move to generate some excitement by announcing long-term extensions for Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer. Morneau's deal is the largest in club history, spanning six years and totaling $80 million. Cuddyer's deal is considerably shorter, registering at three years/$23 million with a club option for a fourth year worth $10.5 million.'

Let me start off by saying that I'm pretty happy with both of these signings. When analyzing the arbitration-eligible Twins last week, I advocated that the Twins stick with a one-year commitment to Cuddyer; yet, it's tough to take issue with this contract. The years and money are both reasonable, and I love the club option for a fourth year. At worst, Cuddyer is probably about a league-average right fielder, and if he can find his 2006 form and revert back into that type of hitter, the Twins can activate the fourth year and perhaps get a bargain.

Then there's the Morneau deal. I think one can easily make the argument that the Twins are overpaying for Morneau. Over the course of his career, he has really only been an average first baseman overall, and it seems dumbfounding that he can collect a contract worth $80 million when the comparably valuable Joe Mauer signed for $33 million just a year ago. With all that being said, Morneau is a very good hitter and I am fairly optimistic that he'll be an above-average first baseman over the length of this contract. He is one of the team's top hitters, and in a system as sparse on bats as the this one, locking him up for the next six years is an important step. Moreover, I think that this contract sends a positive message to the players and fans.

With baseball's revenue rising and a new stadium on the horizon, the Twins have money to spend. They committed a nice big chunk of it yesterday to a pair of important members of the team. I think both of these players have more upside than downside, and it's tough to see these contracts really coming back to hurt the time. A nice, aggressive move by Bill Smith. Now, we see what effect the moves have on the Johan Santana situation.

Comfortably Average

Last season, the Twins ranked 12th among 14 American League teams in runs scored. It's not difficult to see why -- they received sub par offensive contributions from almost every position. Don't take my word for it, take a look. Here are the 2007 American League averages for OPS at each position, followed by what the Twins got from those positions:

AL catchers: .713
Twins catchers: .750

AL first basemen: .790
Twins first basemen: .812

AL second basemen: .755
Twins second basemen: .640

AL third basemen: .761
Twins third basemen: .631

AL shortstops: .713
Twins shortstops: .656

AL left fielders: .760
Twins left fielders: .677

AL center fielders: .754
Twins center fielders: .836

AL right fielders: .824
Twins right fielders: .764

AL designated hitters: .802
Twins designated hitters: .737

So there you have it. The Twins were well above-average at center field (thanks to Torii Hunter, who is now gone) and marginally above-average at catcher and first base. Outside of those positions, the Twins got substantially below-average offensive production from each position on the field.

Needless to say, getting league-average production at most positions would be a major improvement. And while it doesn't seem like a particularly lofty goal, it's what the middle-market Twins will be shooting for this year. Can they accomplish it? Since positional averages tend to be fairly stable from year to year, we can use last year's numbers as benchmarks going forward. Let's break it down on a position-by-position basis.

CATCHER
This is a particularly weak offensive position -- AL catchers hit only .253/.318/.395 collectively last year. So even though Joe Mauer regressed and struggled with injuries for much of the season and Mike Redmond didn't set the world on fire, the Twins still finished with an OPS 37 points higher than the league mean. It's perfectly reasonable to see Mauer rebounding with a healthy year and putting up numbers somewhere between his 2006 and 2007 campaigns, in which case the Twins should be well above-average at this position.

FIRST BASE
I'm not sure what to think about Justin Morneau at this point. He had a solid debut in 2004, he was horrible in 2005, splendid in 2006, and fairly mediocre overall in 2007 (thanks to a great first half that was marred by an awful second half). I don't know what happened in the final months last year, and I'd like to believe he'll look more like the 2006 version in 2008, but to be safe I'll predict that he'll finish with numbers similar to his final line last year, making him average offensively.

SECOND BASE
The likely starter here is Brendan Harris. Last year, with the Devil Rays, Harris hit .286/.343/.434, which was right in line with the AL average for second basemen (.284/.339/.416). I think it's fairly reasonable to expect him to repeat that performance and provide average production at second base in the upcoming season, which would be a huge upgrade for a team that was 115 points below the league average in OPS at the position last year.

THIRD BASE
This is an interesting one. If Mike Lamb is used as a full-time player here and he receives 500+ at-bats, it's likely that he will post an OPS around his career mark of .761 (which is, coincidentally, identical to the AL league average for third basemen last year). However, if the Twins shield him against left-handed pitchers to some degree, much like the Astros have for the past several seasons, Lamb has a great chance of putting up an OPS in the area of .825, which would be well above-average. This depends on Twins identifying a righty-hitting third baseman who could put up a solid OPS in limited duty against southpaws (Matt Macri might fit the bill). In that case, this team could potentially be very solid relative to the rest of the league offensively. Defense, of course, is another story.

SHORTSTOP
Here's the first position we come across where the Twins are almost guaranteed to be well below-average. Adam Everett has a career .656 OPS and there's little reason to believe he'll be any better than that this year.

LEFT FIELD
This is a tough one to predict. The average AL left fielder hit .275/.335/.426 last year, while Delmon Young hit .288/.316/.408 to fall below that mark. Of course, he was only 22. Many optimists are predicting a huge jump for Young here in his second full season, and he certainly has the tools to do it. However, I think some of the people anticipating Hunter-like numbers are setting themselves up for disappointment. Young played in every single game last year and managed only 13 home runs and a .724 OPS. To add 15 home runs to that total and .120 points or so to his OPS would be a staggering leap. ZiPS, a predictive tool used at Baseball Think Factory, forecasts only a slight improvement for Young next year and sees him hitting .292/.323/.424. That seems pretty conservative and I think he'll do better than, but even that would be league-average so I'd say the Twins are a lock to be average at the very least in left field.

CENTER FIELD
This is a obviously a big question mark. If Johan Santana is traded, it remains likely that the 2008 starting center fielder will be a player received in that trade. As long as Santana is still in Minnesota, the favorite to take the job at this point is probably Jason Pridie. Most agree that Pridie is capable of putting up solid numbers, but it's tough to predict him being an above-average hitter as a 24-year-old rookie with only 245 at-bats above Double-A. I'd say the Twins project to be below average in center field at this point, but not by a whole lot. Obviously, this situation is subject to change.

RIGHT FIELD
Michael Cuddyer had a tough year last year, in large part because he was derailed late in the season by a thumb injury. Still, I felt Cuddyer was playing over his head in 2006 and he's realistically probably closer to his career .796 OPS than the .866 OPS he posted in that magical season. Nevertheless, there's no reason to believe Cuddyer won't be at least average in 2008 as long as he can remain healthy.

DESIGNATED HITTER
It's astonishing how little production the Twins have gotten over the past several seasons from a position in which the player's sole duty is to hit. That figures to change this year, with a (hopefully) healthy and adjusted Jason Kubel likely taking over full-time. As a DH last year, Kubel hit .302/.385/.500. If he can even approach that type of production in the upcoming season, the Twins should be very strong at the DH spot, and well above-average.


CONCLUSIONS
So we have a couple of positions where the Twins project to be below average, but for the most part it appears that this team should be at least on-par with the rest of the league at every position from an offensive standpoint. That doesn't even take into account the very real possibility that a guy like Mauer or Young busts out with a huge season. Of course, as we've been conditioned to learn around these parts, you can't take anything for granted and there's always a very real possibility of guys having down years. Factoring that into the equation, along with injuries, I'd say it's likely that the Twins have about an average offense overall in 2008 -- perhaps better depending on how the center field situation sorts out. This isn't a lineup that's going to light the world on fire like the Tigers or the Yankees, but with great pitching it should be enough to compete.

Of course, this begs the question as to whether or not the Twins will actually have great pitching. And that is a topic for another day.

One-Year Deals and Cuddy in Center

Last week I wrote about the Twins' five arbitration-eligible players, noting that I felt it would be wise to lock up two of them -- Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel -- to long-term deals. In the following days, the Twins signed both of those players to contracts, but they were both one-year commitments, with Morneau's being worth $7.4 million and Kubel's worth $1.3 million. The Twins also agreed to a one-year deal with Juan Rincon that will pay him $2.475 million in 2008. That is a relatively small increase from his $2 million salary a year ago, which makes sense given his struggles.

It's disappointing to see the Twins fail to lock down Morneau and Kubel, yet understandable given the uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana and his future with the team. Plus, longer extensions could be reached with either player in the future. As La Velle noted on his blog last week, "Signing Morneau to a one-year deal doesn’t mean they can’t tear up the contract for a long-term deal. They did that exact thing a few years ago with Corey Koskie." I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen with Morneau after the Santana issue gets sorted out, although I doubt they'll look to sign Kubel to a long-term extension this offseason as much as I think it would be a good idea. I can hardly fault the Twins if they remain a little concerned about Kubel's knees.

The Twins now have two arbitration-eligible players remaining: Matt Guerrier and Michael Cuddyer. Guerrier filed for $1.15 million while the club filed for $750,000; I imagine the two sides will reach a deal right around $1 million in the near future. The gap between Cuddyer and the club is larger, as Cuddyer filed for $6.2 million -- $1.5 million more than the team's offer of $4.7 million. Last year, Cuddyer and the Twins very nearly went before an arbitrator, but reached an agreement at $3.75 million at the last second. Given the disparity between the numbers filed by the two sides this year, it seems quite possible that this case could go before an arbitrator, but the Twins are financially in a position where they can easily afford to pay Cuddyer around $5.5 million, so reaching a mid-point would make sense and save a lot of hassle for both sides.

Speaking of Cuddyer, many feathers were ruffled this weekend when Ron Gardenhire had the following quote in a Charley Walters column in the Sunday edition of the Pioneer Press:

Torii Hunter's successor in center field for the Twins could be Michael Cuddyer.

"With Delmon Young in right and Jason Kubel in left," manager Ron Gardenhire said.

That's a consideration of Gardenhire's if minor leaguers Denard Span and Jason Pridie can't convince the manager during spring training that they're ready to succeed Hunter, who left for the Los Angeles Angels via free agency.

"I'm going to talk to Cuddy about it," Gardenhire said.

The idea of Cuddyer playing center field is nothing short of horrifying, given the fact that his range is sub par even for a right fielder. However, I think the reaction to this quote has been a little over-the-top. I realize the information is coming straight from the horse's mouth, but I can't imagine that Gardenhire would ever actually pencil Cuddyer into center field. In such a scenario, it would seem that Craig Monroe would be the full-time DH. That's bad enough as it is, because there's no way Monroe should be counted on as an everyday player, but if that's truly what Gardenhire wants to do, it would make a lot more sense to DH Kubel and have Monroe play center field. That's still far from ideal, and one would hope that the Twins can acquire a legitimate center fielder before the offseason is over, or that Pridie can step up and seize the job in spring training.

Friday Notes

Happy Friday! It's back to school for me next week as I embark upon what will potentially be my last semester at the University of Minnesota, but for now here are a few notes on various Twins-related topics.

* ESPN.com's Buster Olney opined in the Wednesday edition of his daily blog that the best option for Bill Smith and the Twins would be to hang onto Johan Santana, even if extending him is not a possibility. Says Olney:

If I was in Smith's shoes, I'd keep Santana. Because to trade him would be to forgo the opportunity to contend in 2008, when the Twins have a chance to be a good team, with Francisco Liriano returning, with Joe Nathan closing, with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young hitting in the middle of their lineup.

This is a good and -- I think -- often overlooked point. The Twins could potentially have one of the strongest groups of hitters in the middle of their lineup of any team in the American League this year. Olney doesn't even mention Jason Kubel, who in my mind could be the best hitter among the aforementioned group in 2008. Many people look at the big acquisitions by Detroit this winter and a Cleveland team that is mostly intact from its playoff run in 2007, and write off the Twins as a third-place team at best. While that may be where I'd pick the Twins to finish if I were ranking the AL Central teams right now, I think the Twins are are a lot closer to competing for a playoff spot than many people think as long as Santana is leading their rotation.

* Twins minor-league guru Dianna of the blog Rookie Whites noted yesterday that Twins' prospect Jose Mijares was in a traffic accident early Sunday in which he suffered a fracture in his left elbow that required surgery. Dianna relays that while "the operation was deemed a success," it will be two or three months before Mijares is able to throw again. Later in the day, Joe Christensen confirmed the report with Bill Smith, who stated that Mijares could be out of action four to six months.

Being that Mijares is a left-handed pitcher, it's disturbing to hear that he damaged his left elbow in the accident. Mijares is a highly intriguing prospect in that, while he has struggled mightily with control over the course of his career, he has electric stuff that has been compared to Francisco Liriano and many feel that if he can conquer his command issues he can develop into a dominant major-league reliever. He had been showing marked improvement in his control while playing in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he held a 1.86 ERA over 37 appearances. Mijares is only 23, but this incident could cause a considerable lag in his development, which is unfortunate given that the Twins need him to put things together as quickly as possible. There is a good possibility that Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon and Dennys Reyes will all be gone after the 2008 season, leaving a need for some young players to step in and restock the bullpen. Here's hoping Mijares experiences a speedy recovery.

* File this headline under "Obvious."

* Earlier this week, Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus put together a list of nine young players who are "breakout candidates" in 2008. Fifth on the list is Kubel, about whom Sheehan has this to say:

• Jason Kubel: While playing in the Arizona Fall League in 2004, Kubel, then 22 and considered one of the best hitting prospects in the game, suffered a devastating knee injury that cost him the entire 2005 season. Although he came back and played in ’06, he wasn’t remotely the same hitter. Most notably, Kubel’s post-injury strikeout rate has been much higher—147 in 835 PA, versus 193 in 1770 PA prior to the injury. That’s not just a result of playing at higher levels: that’s evidence of damage to the engine.

  What we saw in ’07 was Kubel finally get back to the hitter he was before the injury. In the season’s first two months, Kubel struck out 33 times and walked 11 in 165 PA. In the next two months, those numbers were 21/10 in 148 PA: a big drop in strikeout rate and K/BB. Over the last two months: 25/18 in 153 PA. Kubel, a disciplined hitter coming through the minors, regained that discipline in ’07. His batting average and power followed. He’s 26 this season, and may actually be the Twins’ best hitter during it; better than Morneau, better than Mauer.

These are the same trends I've noted with Kubel, which is a major reason I'm expecting big things from him in the upcoming season (as you may have gathered). Another fact that isn't mentioned here about Kubel is that despite some of his struggles last season, he consistently drove the ball hard. Kubel finished the season with a line-drive percentage of 22.1; that is considerably better than the rest of the team's hard hitters, such as Mauer (17.9%), Morneau (15.9%), Cuddyer (18.7%) and Torii Hunter (14%). In fact, if Kubel had enough at-bats to qualify, he would have tied Jorge Posada for sixth in the AL in LD% last year.

What's depressing? The only 2007 Twin that actually ranked in the Top 25 in the AL in LD% was the now-departed Jason Bartlett, who ranked 19th at 20.1 percent. What makes that less depressing? Brendan Harris and Delmon Young ranked 10th and 11th, respectively.

* Sticking with Sheehan's article, as interesting as it was to see Kubel's name halfway down the list of breakout candidates, I was perhaps even more intrigued by the player listed below him:

• Melky Cabrera. Cabrera went backwards in ’07, but not by enough for concern. Remember that he is just 23 years old and has more than 1100 plate appearances in the majors, with average to average-plus defense (good physical tools, but very raw, takes bad routes) and a very good 129/96 K/BB. He is a mature player offensively, patient at the plate and fair on the bases (25-for-35 stealing in his career). One interesting quirk is his G/F ratio, which is 1.63 for his career and was a whopping 1.81 last season. Cabrera is listed at 5’11” and 200 pounds. He’s not Willy Taveras, but rather a player who should be developing power and learning how to drive the ball, rather than hitting the ball on the ground 60 percent of the time.

  I’m reminded of Alex Rios, who doesn’t look a thing like Cabrera. Rios was largely disappointing in 2004 and 2005, hitting just 11 homers in more than 900 at-bats, with an isolated power of 117. The problem: Rios was hitting the ball on the ground too much, a 1.82 G/F in those two seasons. Starting in ’06, Rios put the ball in the air more than half the time, and became a star. When you look at Cabrera’s body, his established control of the strike zone, and his ability to hold his own at a young age, you recognize that all it’s going to take is for him to start elevating the ball. Cabrera may not get there in 2008, but he’s going to pop 80 extra-base hits and slug .500 in a season very, very soon.

Cabrera, who has been mentioned frequently in Santana trade rumors, gets bashed by a lot of fans for reasons I cannot surmise. He reached the major leagues as a 20-year-old in 2005, and has held his own in the big leagues over 1,024 at-bats with a .275/.340/.388 line. Many Twins fans seem to be sour on him because he posted an unimpressive .718 OPS last year, but it is essential to note that he was only 22 years old for most of the season and playing in a fairly high-pressure environment in New York.

I'm a fan of Cabrera, and while he doesn't profile as a superstar, I certainly think he can be an above-average outfielder in the major leagues for many years. That's a big part of the reason that, in my mind, the reported Yankees' offer of Phil Hughes+Cabrera+prospect is by far the best one on the table for Santana at this point.

Extensions

The Twins have several players eligible for arbitration this year, and the time is nearing for the organization to decide on a course of action to take with each of these players. Generally, the way arbitration works is that each player and his agent will come up with a reasonable figure for a 2008 salary, and the team will come up with a different number they find reasonable. At this point, the Twins have three basic options: negotiate to a mid-point figure and sign the player to a one-year deal, take the case before an arbitrator who will decide which figure is more fair, or come to terms on a multi-year contract.

The Twins had six arbitration-eligible players last year, and they reached mid-point one-year agreements with four of them while locking up Nick Punto and Joe Mauer to multi-year deals. This year the Twins will have to make decisions on five arbitration-eligible players. Teams and players usually prefer to avoid going in front of the arbitrator, as the process can damage the relationship between the sides, so we'll rule out that possibility and today I'll look at each of the Twins' arbitration-eligible players on a case-by-case basis to analyze which players merit a multi-year contract (Deal), and which ones would be better served with only a one-year commitment (No Deal).

1. Justin Morneau - 1B

Many were frustrated that the Twins didn't lock up Morneau a year ago following his MVP 2006 campaign, as the team instead settled on a $4.5 million one-year deal to avoid arbitration. Even though Morneau's numbers declined in 2007, his salary is still likely to nearly double here in his second year of arbitration.

Morneau is the Twins' best slugger, and the departure of Torii Hunter makes Morneau's role on this team all the more vital. Locking him up long-term should be a high priority, and fortunately the Twins have the money to make it happen, particularly with Johan Santana's salary likely coming off the books by next year at the latest.

The Twins should do the same thing with Morneau that they did with Mauer last year, locking their young star up with a four-year contract that will buy out his first year of free agency. I'm thinking something along the lines of four years/$50 million would do the trick.

VERDICT: DEAL

2. Michael Cuddyer - RF

After a breakout campaign in 2006 that saw him post an .866 OPS (more than 100 points higher than his previous career high), Cuddyer regressed in 2007, hitting for a solid average and on-base percentage but posting a slugging percentage nearly 70 points lower than his '06 figure while hitting just 16 home runs in 144 games. Overall, Cuddyer was not a bad hitter, but the Twins need him to be a legitimate power threat, and he's been unable to do that over the course of his career with the exception of that 2006 season.

The upcoming season should be a big one for Cuddyer. Hunter is gone, and it's unclear what kind of jump Delmon Young will be able to make, leaving a strong possibility that the Twins will be relying on Cuddyer as their big right-handed stick in the lineup. If he can't produce more power than he did last year, the offense could potentially be in some trouble.

I personally believe that Cuddyer is a pretty mediocre right fielder, and losing him to free agency ultimately would not be the worst thing in the world. The Twins have a pair of good young corner outfielders in Young and Jason Kubel, both of whom will probably be better hitters than Cuddyer in the long run. If Cuddy has a big season and proves that he truly is the type of hitter he was in 2006, then perhaps the Twins can revisit the idea of an extension at a later time; for the time being, another one-year deal is probably wisest.

VERDICT: NO DEAL

3. Jason Kubel - LF

Due to unfortunate circumstances, the Twins haven't gotten much production from Kubel during his cheap serfdom years. Kubel's service clock ran while he missed the entire 2005 season with a knee injury, and continued to run for the following two seasons while he struggled to find his form. However, in the second half last year, Kubel showed the type of promise many fans have been waiting for by hitting .303/.379/.511. My feeling is that Kubel's second half in '07 is a preview of things to come.

I view Kubel as the type of hitter who can ultimately be an anchor in this lineup, be it in left field, right field, or at designated hitter. Since he has yet to piece together a great full season, his price tag will not be overly high. I think the Twins would be wise to sign him to a long-term deal that will buy out his remaining arbitration years and perhaps take him a year or two into free agency. In the end, he could wind up being a great value.

VERDICT: DEAL

4. Matt Guerrier - RP

Guerrier went from solid long reliever to premier setup man last year, posting a 2.35 ERA while frequently pitching in high-pressure situations out of the back of the Twins' bullpen. With the escalating market for relief pitching, the conventional wisdom states that the Twins would be wise to lock him up as quickly as they can. However, seeing as how this is Guerrier's first year of arbitration eligibility, and seeing as how his 2007 season came out of the blue to a large degree, I think the Twins would be wise to stick with a one-year commitment for the time being to see what they've really got in Guerrier. If he proves to be the reliable reliever he appeared to be last year, then next year the Twins should lock him up and solidify his spot as an important member of their 'pen.

VERDICT: NO DEAL

5. Juan Rincon - RP

Rincon has seen his numbers decline for three straight seasons now, culminating in a brutal 2007 campaign that saw the formerly dominant setup man post a 5.13 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Given his unstable performances, there's really no need to try and lock up Rincon beyond this year; in fact, considering that his price tag will likely be around $3 million, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins seriously gave serious consideration to non-tendering him back in December. It would be great if Rincon could recapture his magic in 2008 and return to being a key member of this bullpen, but given his recent trends, it is somewhat difficult to see that taking place.

VERDICT: NO DEAL

Meet the Mets

Joe Christensen had an article in the Star Tribune yesterday reporting that the Mets may be the most likely eventual destination for Johan Santana, noting that they have reportedly offered the Twins a package that includes outfielder Carlos Gomez along with pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber.

I've always felt that the Mets were a logical trading partner, in that they have a greater need for Santana than the Yankees or Red Sox and thus may be willing to take their offers one step further than either of those clubs. Furthermore, there is little doubt that the Twins would rather send their star left-hander to the National League so as to avoid being forced to face him a couple times during the regular season and -- more frighteningly -- in the AL playoffs.

Christensen reports that the Twins have "told the Mets they'd have a done deal if New York would add prized outfield prospect Fernando Martinez." That's not exactly a minor toss-in, as Martinez is the Mets' top prospect and one of the better outfield prospects in baseball. Yet, if the Mets can make that happen, this is potentially an exciting package with a lot of upside. Martinez reached Double-A last season and held his own despite being just 18 years old, which is extremely impressive. He has tools that scouts rave about; then again, he has only accumulated 563 professional at-bats at this point, and he hasn't put up any jaw-dropping numbers as of yet (which is understandable, given his age), so making him the centerpiece of a Santana deal is a risky proposition.

As for the package the Mets have reportedly already offered, it has some potential but probably isn't significantly better than the offers the Yankees and Red Sox have made. I'm higher on Gomez than most and I like his chances to turn into a Jose Reyes type player. At 22, he's one of the fastest players in all of baseball, which makes him a very exciting player to watch, and I believe he'll build on his patience and power, both of which are fairly meager at this point. The lack of plate discipline is particularly alarming, as he'll never be able to put his blazing speed to good use unless he can get on base at a decent rate, but he is young and raw.

Along with Gomez, Guerra is the other enticing piece in the Mets' reported offer. A Venezuelan right-hander who won't turn 19 until April, Guerra has already put in a full season at Advanced Single-A, posting decent numbers against older and more experienced hitters. At 6'5" and 220 lbs., Guerra is an imposing figure on the mound and he brings a very good changeup which could become even more effective as he adds velocity to his fastball. Of course, Guerra is still at least a couple years away, and judging teenage pitching prospects is always a tricky task, so naturally there is a lot of risk involved with making him the centerpiece pitcher in a Santana deal.

Mulvey and Humber, the two others mentioned in the package, are decent pitchers who I don't believe will develop into above-average major-leaguers. The Twins already have numerous similar pitchers in the shape of guys like Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Jeff Manship -- guys who can put the ball in the strike zone consistently but lack exceptional stuff. I'd prefer to see the punchless Twins get more offense out of a Santana deal than one speedy center field who could well become the next Juan Pierre, which is why the Mets' offer isn't overly appealing unless Martinez is involved.

At this point, with the offers that are reportedly on the table, I still feel that the Yankees' package is the best. Phil Hughes remains the best player mentioned in any trade discussions, Melky Cabrera provides a solid young outfielder, and the additional prospect or two added to the deal would help stock the Twins' system. The Mets, however, appear to be serious bidders, and if they can adjust their deal a bit and find a way to include both Gomez and Martinez, they might be the club that comes out on top in these lengthy Santana Sweepstakes.

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On an aside, if you're interested in reading what Mets fans are saying about this proposed deal, you can check this post and its comments over at Metsblog.com.

We Gotta Do This F***in' Thing Over Again, 'Cause They Just F***ed It Up

Another year, another Hall of Fame snub for Bert Blyleven. The Baseball Writers' Association of America had their votes tallied yesterday, and only Goose Gossage had his name on the necessary percentage of ballots (85.3 percent) to surpass the 75 percent threshold and achieve entry to the Hall of Fame. Blyleven failed to get elected for an eleventh straight year, although he did find his name on 61.9 percent of ballots, which is a considerable increase from last year's 47 percent.

Joe Christensen called the boost in percentage for Blyleven "a big jump," adding that the increase is a good sign that Blyleven will reach the Hall eventually, a notion which was very much in doubt after he saw his support drop six percentage points last year from the year before. Perhaps this year's results should be viewed as an encouraging sign, but it still frustrates me each time I see the voters fail to give Blyleven his proper due.

Obviously, I'm a major believer that Blyleven belongs in the Hall of Fame. I won't go into a lengthy tirade about all the reasons I feel this way (you can already find material like that in numerous other places, including here, here and here); suffice to say that nearly every anti-Blyleven argument centers in some way around his win-loss record, which was heavily influenced by the unfortunately mediocre teams he tended to play for. This is the same type of flawed thinking that prevented Johan Santana from winning the Cy Young in 2005, and it's a systematic issue in the BBWAA that drives me batty.

Other former Twins to receive votes were Jack Morris (42.9 percent) and first-timer Chuck Knoblauch (>1 percent). I'm not by any means a believer that Morris belongs in the Hall, and the fact that Knoblauch received even one vote is somewhat laughable. Still, another snub for Blyleven has me peeved. Here's hoping that his luck changes within the next couple years.

Center of Attention

Ah, a new year. It means we can all make resolutions for ourselves that will undoubtedly fade away within a matter of weeks. It means we will all spend the next month or two scribbling out the "07" that we accidentally wrote in the date section of our checks, and replace it with "08." But most importantly (at least for nerds like me), it means that pitchers and catchers shall be reporting for spring training in less than two months.

Naturally, there has been little action in the world of the Twins over the past few weeks, which is why nearly the entire blogosphere has been a virtual graveyard. Johan Santana has not been traded, and he might not be. As things stand, the Twins could field a pretty decent team with an established starter at every position -- with one exception. There is no obvious replacement for Torii Hunter in center field. The prevailing assumption has been that the answer would come over in a Santana trade, but with the very real possibility that Santana will still be a Twin in April, an answer might have to be found internally.

For yesterday's Pioneer Press, Phil Miller penned an article on Jason Pridie, a center field prospect who came over in the Delmon Young trade and seems to be the leading internal candidate to fill the team's vacancy in center field. Pridie is an interesting case, in that the Twins showed interest in him back in 2006 when they invited him to spring training as a Rule 5 draftee. Pridie did not make the Twins' roster and was sent back to the Rays organization, where he went on to put together a very poor campaign, batting .230/.281/.304 in Double-A as a 23-year-old. Last year, however, Pridie broke out with a big year, batting .290/.331/.441 in 71 games at Double-A before advancing to Triple-A for 63 games, where he raked to the tune of .318/.375/.539.

As Miller mentions in his article, Pridie is the only center fielder on the Twins' 40-man roster aside from Denard Span, so many view those two as the contending candidates for the starting spot in center field should the Twins fail to find an answer externally. One thing must be stressed here: Span is not a legitimate candidate to start in the big leagues next season.

Because Span and Pridie are both lefty-hitting center fielders with good speed and experience in Triple-A, people tend to group them together as options for the Twins' spot in center field. Both players were selected in the 2002 draft (Span with the No. 20 pickl; Pridie with the No. 43), and both will be 24 on Opening Day.

It is important to note, though, that Pridie appears to be a far superior option than Span. The two players are similar in that both have shown the ability to hit for a decent batting average -- Pridie is a .279 career hitter in the minors; Span .283 -- while neither has exhibited a whole lot of plate discipline. This prevents either player from looking like an ideal leadoff hitter, but the nice thing about Pridie is that he has some power. Between Double-A and Triple-A last season, Pridie racked up 32 doubles, 11 triples and 14 homers, while also stealing 26 bases on 36 attempts. Span, meanwhile, has hit a total of seven homers in nearly 2,000 minor-league at-bats, and he set a career high last year with a total of 30 extra-base hits in Rochester. It might be a promising sign that Span has seemingly gone from having no power to having slight power, but he still slugged only .355 and along with the marginal rise in power came a drop-off in batting average (his .267 average tied a career low) and a rise in strikeouts (he struck out in 18 percent of his at-bats, his highest percentage since 2004). Furthermore, for a guy whose game is supposedly based on his tremendous speed, Span has failed to even turn himself into a legitimate base-stealing threat; his career high for stolen bases is 25 and his career success rate is a mediocre 66 percent.

Pridie has been inconsistent over the course of his career thus far, some of which can be attributed to injuries. He has shown several flashes of talent though, and the Twins clearly recognize that which is why they have apparently coveted him for some time. He needs to hone his on-base skills and improve his plate discipline in order to become the top-of-the-order hitter the Twins need him to be, but his combination of speed and ability to poke the ball over the fence make him an intriguing prospect and a far more attractive candidate for the center field job in the upcoming season than Span.

Back To Work

I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday! I don't have much to write about today, because this is quite simply a quiet time for the baseball world, but I thought I'd at least write up a quick post to let you all know I didn't die of mistletoe poisoning.

The only real story that continues to get ink regarding the Twins is the Johan Santana saga. It doesn't seem like a deal is particularly near, but rumors continue to float around regularly. Murray Chass of the New York Times wrote yesterday about the implications of baseball's luxury tax, relating it to the prospect of the Yankees acquiring and signing Santana. Chass mentions this interesting tidbit:

At one point, the Twins were said to be holding out for Hughes and Ian Kennedy, another of the Yankees’ attractive triumvirate of major league-ready young pitchers (the untouchable Joba Chamberlain being the third), but the Yankees wouldn’t give up both, so the Twins asked instead for [Jeff] Marquez, a 23-year-old right-hander.

A 23-year-old who struck out just 5.45 batters per nine innings in Double-A last year, Marquez is far from a great prospect. Chass mentions later in his article that the Yankees' GM Brian Cashman "wants to hold on to the young pitchers." With that being the case, I don't see why the Twins are really pushing for arms. Getting Kennedy would be nice, but the Twins' organization is already stocked with marginal pitchers like Marquez -- they have very little use for him. I'd much rather see them acquire a hitter with some upside as the third piece behind Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera in a deal with the Yankees.

On another note, I hunkered down during the long weekend and paged through a book I received several weeks ago to review. It's called "The Best Arguments in Minnesota Sports," and it is written by Pioneer Press scribe Bob Sansevere. Basically it is just a list of 100 different debatable topics with regards to each of Minnesota's sports teams -- from the Vikings to the Twins to the T-Wolves and so forth. I'm not the biggest Sansevere fan and I certainly found myself disagreeing with a few of the stances he takes in the book (Jack Morris is more deserving of a Hall of Fame spot than Bert Blyleven??), but it's an entertaining read. Check it out if you're cooped up in the house on a snowy day and bored.

So Long, Silva

Considering the market that has been established for mediocre starting pitching in recent offseasons, there was never much doubt that Carlos Silva would be pitching in a different uniform next season. It was reported earlier this week that Silva and the Mariners were closing in on a four year deal worth $44 million, but I elected to withhold comment until the deal became official. That happened yesterday, when the Mariners officially announced that they'd signed Silva to a four-year contract, which turned out to be worth a little more than originally thought at $48 million.

It's a little difficult to wrap your head around, isn't it? It was less than three years ago that the Twins signed Johan Santana to a four-year extension worth $39.75M. And now Silva, a pitcher who was arguably the worst in the league two years ago, and who has little chance of being anything more than a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, is inking a contract that will pay him an average of $12 million per year. The initial reaction is to look at this contract and say, "Man, Seattle got hosed." I don't necessarily think that is the case, all things considered.

Last winter, the Brewers signed Jeff Suppan to a four-year deal worth $42 million. At the time, Suppan was about a week away from turning 32, and -- like Silva -- he was a good bet to provide around 200 innings with a solid but unspectacular ERA. Comparatively speaking, getting Silva for an extra $6 million over the same number of years seems like a decent deal. Silva is only 28 and his career ERA and WHIP are better than Suppan's were. Plus, while Suppan has had some solid years over the course of his career, he's never had a season as good as Silva's 2005, so it could be said that Silva has more upside.

Forty-eight million dollars seems like a lot to spend on a player of Silva's caliber, but the reality is that the Mariners had money to spend and they were badly in need of a reliable arm that they can stick in their rotation. Silva's ERA last year would have ranked second among Seattle's starters, behind only Felix Hernandez. The deal is good for Silva because it puts him in a place where he has a good chance to succeed -- Safeco Field is a pitcher's park and the groundball-inducing Silva will no doubt enjoy the Mariners' defensive proficiency on the left side of the infield with Adrian Beltre at third and Yuniesky Betancourt at short.

Seeing Silva sign this type of contract just re-emphasizes the fact that he is valued more around the league than a lot of Twins fans might have thought. I was quite vocal last season around the trading deadline in stating that the Twins should trade Silva for any kind of value rather than watching him walk as a free agent with no compensation during the offseason. The first team I suggested as a trading partner was, in fact, the Mariners, who were contending for a playoff spot but featured some of the worst starting pitching in baseball. If Silva is worth this kind of money on the open market, it's hard to imagine he couldn't have at least netted a prospect or two from some team looking for a rotation boost down the stretch.

Alas, the non-move by Terry Ryan goes down as another blemish on what was an unimpressive late run for the former GM. I wish Silva the best in Seattle and my guess is that he'll do fairly well there. Let's just hope he gets hit with another tummy-ache when the time comes for him to face the Twins.

The Offseason Thus Far

At this point last December, Terry Ryan had made the following offseason roster moves: picked up Torii Hunter's option, picked up Carlos Silva's option and signed free agent Jeff Cirillo to a one-year contract to serve as a backup 1B/3B/DH. As exciting as that flurry of activity was, I think it's safe to say that it pales in comparison to the list of moves Bill Smith has made here in his inaugural winter at the helm of the Twins. Already he has pulled the trigger on a blockbuster deal to bring Delmon Young to Minnesota, signed a pair of free agents who are slated to be starters in the infield, and gotten the Twins involved in trade talks with numerous clubs regarding ace pitcher Johan Santana. At this point, it appears likely that the Twins will have new starters manning at least five positions in 2008, and that's the type of shakeup that was needed for an offense that was one of the league's most stagnant in 2007.

Smith has been aggressive to be sure, but that's not to say I'm wild about the moves he's made. I felt that the Twins gave up too much talent in the trade with the Rays. Adam Everett (or "Neverhitt," as we'll likely be calling him in a few months) is a wonderful defensive player but does nothing to solve this team's offensive problems. Mike Lamb is certainly an upgrade offensively at third base, but there are serious questions about his defense and his ability to produce in the lineup as a regular. Craig Monroe will make more money than any mediocre fourth outfielder rightfully should. With all that being said, I'm not overly upset about any of the moves Smith has made and I think they all fit into an intelligent overarching plan that will give the Twins a chance to compete next year but is more aimed at putting the team in position to succeed in the long-term.

To me, the Twins' chances of competing next season are almost completely dependent on whether or not Santana is traded. Despite the tough nature of the AL Central these days, it'd be hard to count out a Twins team with a talented young rotation led by baseball's most dominant starting pitcher. The Twins can be especially dangerous if their offense is above-average, which would be possible with great campaigns from Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Young to go along with competent performances elsewhere. If Santana is gone, it's tough to see this team hanging around with the big boys, unless Francisco Liriano is a lot better than I expect him to be.

In most circles, it seems like a foregone conclusion that Santana will be dealt, likely within the next couple weeks. I'm a little skeptical at this point. Unless one of the bidding teams ups its offer, I could see the Twins hanging onto Santana and re-evaluating in July. And as much as I've been opposed to that notion in the past, perhaps it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.

I guess my feelings about the overall job Smith has done so far this offseason can best be described as lukewarm. He's still got some work to do, and he's got plenty of time to do it. We'll see what else he has up his sleeve.

On the Lamb

The Twins signed their second former Astro in as many days yesterday, inking third baseman Mike Lamb to a two-year contract worth $6.6 million, with an option for a third year. Joe Christensen reports that while Lamb is a likely candidate to start at third base, assistant GM Rob Antony said, "We don't like to give anything away."

Considering the alternatives, my guess is that Lamb will be the Twins' starting third baseman next season, and that's not really a bad thing. He often struggled to get regular playing time during his eight seasons with the Rangers and Astros, and has never accumulated more than 381 at-bats in a season (EDIT: since his rookie season -- thanks Ryan!). Still, he's posted a solid .281/.339/.427 line over the course of his career, and last season with the Astros he batted .289/.366/.453 with 11 home runs and 40 RBI in 311 at-bats.

There's reason to question why an apparently rebuilding team would make a two-year commitment to a 32-year-old defensive liability, but Lamb is likely to provide at least league-average offensive production from third base next year, which will be a major upgrade from the atrocious .236/.308/.323 line the Twins got from third base last year. Plus, the presence of defensive wizard Adam Everett at shortstop should help offset Lamb's fielding deficiencies on the left side of the infield.

As the Twins struggled to field an offense that could even be considered respectable for much of the 2007 season, I often mused that if they could just upgrade from "awful" to "average" at a few positions, they'd have a shot at competing. Bill Smith has accomplished that, in earnest, by adding Lamb at third base.

Everett's D Has Its Day

The Twins entered this offseason with several holes needing to be filled. They opened another hole when they traded starting shortstop Jason Bartlett as part of a package to acquire Delmon Young, and yesterday they seemingly filled that hole by signing Adam Everett.

The Twins inked Everett, who had been non-tendered by the Astros just a day after a 5-for-1 swap sent Miguel Tejada to Houston, to a one-year deal worth $2.8 million (with an additional $200K possible in incentives). Everett seemingly serves as a stopgap until a guy like Alexi Casilla, Trevor Plouffe or Alejandro Machado is ready to take over the position. The contract is reasonable and it doesn't carry much risk. But is it a good signing?

The Twins came into this offseason badly needing to improve an offense that was one of the league's worst in 2007. As such, bringing in a player who has been one of baseball's worst regular hitters for the past several years seems like a major step in the wrong direction. In the past season, Everett batted .232/.281/.318, which is Nick Punto territory. What's worse is that there isn't much potential for Everett to produce any more than that. Throughout his career, his numbers have always been very consistent with his overall hitting line of .248/.299/.357, which is what you'd expect from a guy who hit .258/.346/.368 in the minor leagues. Everett's career high for on-base percentage is .320; for slugging percentage, .385. On top of all that, he'll turn 31 in February, so he's no spring chicken.

But here's what makes Everett a major-league player: his defense. He's a phenomenal defensive shortstop -- the best, according to many knowledgeable baseball analysts and players. Defense is important -- as Ubelmann notes, perhaps to an underrated degree. This is especially true at shortstop, which is perhaps the second-most important position on the field behind catcher. When he's at his best, Everett can save runs with his glove and help a team's pitching staff tremendously.

But this brings two questions into focus. First, will Everett be at his best? He missed much of the 2007 season after breaking his leg in June, and there's no telling how that will affect his mobility. If Everett loses even a step, his value diminishes greatly. The other question is how helpful he will be to this Twins team -- specifically, how much more helpful will he be in the field than a player like Casilla or Punto who is likely to put up better numbers offensively? With Carlos Silva departing, the Twins don't project to have a very groundball-heavy pitching staff; it is also possible that Everett's range will be less effective on artificial turf than it was on natural grass.

At this point in time, I don't like this signing. Everett is the type of player that can be valuable in the right situation, but I'm not really sure the Twins are a team that can afford the luxury of a superb defensive shortstop who can't hit worth a lick. If Bill Smith manages to fill each of the team's other holes with legitimate hitters, my mind could change; however, that seems somewhat unlikely at this point.

Update: Twins Sign Everett

According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, the Twins have signed shortstop Adam Everett to a one-year contract. Everett became expendable to the Astros when they decided to trade for Miguel Tejada.

Step one to upgrading an anemic offense: sign a player with a .248/.299/.357 career hitting line to become your starting shortstop. Check.

Monroe's Aboard

Joe Christensen reported yesterday that the Twins have come to terms on a one-year contract with Craig Monroe, an arbitration-eligible outfielder whom they acquired from the Cubs about a month ago. The Twins signed Monroe for the smallest amount they could by rule at $3.82 million - a 20 percent reduction from his salary in 2007. That seems like an awful lot of money for a guy who hit .219/.268/.347 last season.

However, while I'm not overly enthused about the signing, I'm not too upset about it. In essence, what Bill Smith has done with the Twins' outfield so far this offseason is replace Rondell White with Delmon Young and Lew Ford with Craig Monroe, without much fluctuation in cost overall. Those are pretty significant upgrades. Despite his poor numbers last season, Monroe is a solid fourth outfielder who can come off the bench and provide some pop. He also hits well against lefties (.814 career OPS), which should be useful given that the Twins' 2008 lineup will likely contain at least four left-handed bats in Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and the center fielder (who I'm currently presuming will be either Jason Pridie or Jacoby Ellsbury).

It seems likely that Monroe will be overpaid in 2008, but that's really a luxury that Twins can afford, with have a massive chunk of payroll coming off the books even if Johan Santana isn't dealt. The Twins have continually claimed that they intend to increase payroll in 2008 -- it seems like they'll have a hard time doing so without handing out a few pricey short-term deals.

All Quiet on the Midwestern Front

I realize it's December in the middle of Minnesota, but I think I just saw a tumbleweed roll by outside. Not much going on in Twins-land right now.

I don't have much to write about today. The Santana trade talks have seemingly quieted down for the time being, and it's tough to analyze any of the Twins' other pressing issues until that situation gets sorted out. I've heard Brandon Inge's name mentioned as a possible third base solution for the Twins... going to have to give that one a big fat no. He's basically Nick Punto with more power -- not worth the money he'll make or the prospect the Twins would have to give up to get him.

Several Mets fans showed up in the comments section on Friday's post and gave some first-hand viewpoints on the prospects being mentioned in Johan Santana trade rumors. If you haven't read through them, it's definitely worth checking out.

Have a good Tuesday. I know I will... officially less than one week left of school this semester!

Wrapping Up a Long Week

This has been a crazy week for Twins fans. The Johan Santana rumors were flying non-stop for about 72 straight hours, and at several points it seemed that a deal was imminent. Yet, here we are; the Winter Meetings have come and gone, and Santana is still a Twin for the time being. I'm of the opinion that Bill Smith's patience in this situation is a good thing. The deals that have reportedly been proposed have been extremely underwhelming, and I have to imagine that some team is going to come to its senses and cough up some real value in order to bring in the best pitcher on the planet. That said, the Twins need to make a decision on Santana in the near future, because the rest of the their moves this offseason will be dictated by what happens with him.

Anyway, here are some notes to wrap up this hectic week:

* Our pal Aaron Gleeman, who kept a running string of Santana updates on his blog on Wednesday and Thursday, noted on Wednesday evening that La Velle E. Neal III had said "it appears unlikely a deal will be reached this week." This prompted Gleeman to state that "the past 72 hours appear to have been a whole lot of nothing. Well covered, widely read nothing, but still nothing."

Not sure I'd agree with that last part. The Santana Saga has been widely read, to be sure, but "well covered"? I'm not real satisfied by the way this whole situation has been covered by the national media. Does reporting every small, unsubstantiated rumor and watching it get picked up by several outlets and subsequently blown out of proportion really constitute good coverage? I wouldn't say so.

I am actually quite satisfied with the way Neal covered the Winter Meetings. As a Twins' beat writer, you might expect him to be the most active reporter in pumping out Santana rumors, but he kept fairly quiet and reserved. I saw many people accuse him of being overly slow or sparse in his coverage, but I'm glad he chose not to contribute to the hysteria by running every unsubstantiated rumor on his blog.

From this point forward, I've chosen to take basically everything I hear regarding Santana with a grain of salt, unless I'm hearing it from a source I truly trust (like Neal). That way, I don't have to get worked up about fabricated rumors of a horrendous three-way deal that would result in the Twins getting Dan Haren and essentially nothing else for Santana. Yuck.

* In yesterday's column I previewed the Rule 5 draft, writing blurbs about the two players I was most worried about seeing the Twins lose: Yohan Pino and Garrett Guzman. Thankfully, Pino is safe, but unfortunately Guzman was grabbed up by the Washington Nationals. If he sticks with the Nats, it's not a crippling loss, because Guzman really doesn't project as anything more than a fourth outfielder at best, but the Twins are not an organization that can afford to be letting quality hitting prospects go for free. Aside from Guzman, the Twins also lost outfielder Rashad Eldridge, and pitchers R.A. Dickey (whom they had just recently signed), Tim Lahey, J.P. Martinez, and Joshua Hill. Guzman, Lahey and Dickey were selected in the major-league portion of the draft, meaning they will need to spend the entire season on the drafting team's 25-man roster or be sent back to the Twins.

* The Dodgers agreed to terms with center fielder Andruw Jones yesterday on a contract worth about $36 million over two years. With the addition of Jones, the Dodgers seemingly have an overloaded outfield, which would perhaps make it more palatable for GM Ned Colletti to part with Matt Kemp, who has always been my favorite player associated with the Santana rumors. Of course, the Dodgers have reportedly been very quiet in the Santana sweepstakes, and there are major questions about whether they would be willing to pony up the cash to sign the star left-hander long-term. Still, my dreams of a Santana-for-Kemp and Clayton Kershaw swap will continue to dance faintly.

* New York Mets GM Omar Minaya told the Associated Press that he thinks he has the players to bring in Santana, even without trading star shortstop Jose Reyes. Most people are skeptical about the Mets' ability to put together a worthy package without Reyes, but I'm pretty high on outfield prospects Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez (especially Gomez). The big downside with the Mets is that they lack high-end pitching prospects that might help offset the loss of the Twins' ace.

Rule 5 Day

The annual Rule 5 draft takes place this morning, and I'm a little nervous because the Twins have left several good players unprotected. You may recall that last year, San Diego nabbed pitcher Kevin Cameron from the Twins in the Rule 5, and he went on to post a 2.79 ERA out of the Padres' bullpen. I'd hate to see something like that happen again.

Players become eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft in the fourth year after they are originally signed (fifth year for a player who was signed at age 18 or younger). Only players not on a team's 40-man roster are eligible to be drafted. Drafting a player has some risk involved, because in order for a team to keep him, the player must remain on their 25-man active roster for the entire season. Johan Santana (still a Twin!) was perhaps the most notable Rule 5 draftee of all time, but as examples like Cameron and Cincinnati's Josh Hamilton illustrate, smaller successes are possible.

The Twins have left a few notable prospects off their 40-man roster this year, and there are a few guys I could see another team take a shot at. One of those players is Yohan Pino, a skinny 24-year-old Venezuelan who finished up the 2007 season in Class-AA New Britain. Pino holds a 2.87 ERA and 267/59 strikeout-to-walk-ratio over 276 2/3 minor-league innings. Pino cruised through the lower levels of the Twins' system, but struggled a bit in Double-A last year. Nevertheless, ZiPS -- a system that projects players' numbers for a given season based on age and past performance -- posits that Pino would post a 4.46 ERA in the majors next year... that's better than the projected ERAs for Scott Baker, Carlos Silva, Boof Bonser and others. That might be a long-shot, but Pino does have some nice upside.

Another player that the Twins could lose is Garrett Guzman, who is one of the few quality hitting prospects in the organization. A 24-year-old corner outfielder, Guzman hit .312/.359/.453 in Double-A last year, and for his minor-league career he is a .290/.341/.439 hitter. Lacking legitimate power and speed, Guzman is far from a phenomenal prospect, but being that their system is so thin on decent hitting prospects, he's a guy the Twins would hate to lose.

Other Twins prospects who could potentially be swooped in the Rule 5 include SP Kyle Aselton, RP Ricky Barrett and 1B David Winfree.

Of course, analyzing only the players the Twins stand to lose during today's draft is a rather negative focus. The Twins will have their chance to nab another team's forgotten prospect as well, and I suspect they'll select somebody. The Twins haven't made a big splash with their Rule 5 acquisitions in recent years -- last year they selected Alejandro Machado, who spent the season on the disabled list; the year before they selected Jason Pridie, who they sent back to Tampa Bay before the season started. Still, there are some intriguing players out there that might be available when the Twins choose. Baseball America has a good list of Rule 5 candidates here that is worth looking over. Among the names to keep an eye on: outfielder Brian Barton, third baseman Jamie D'Antona, and defensive-minded second baseman Luis Valbuena.

Nothing Yet

I heard on multiple occasions yesterday that a deal with the Red Sox was in the final stages of completion. It never materialized. I'm not unhappy about this, because I found the rumored deal (which was said to contain Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson and possibly Ryan Kalish) to be quite unsatisfactory. If it comes down to it and that's truly the best offer the Twins receive, I guess they have to take it, because it's almost certainly more value than they'd be able to acquire with the draft picks they'd receive when Santana leaves as a free agent next year. Still... we're talking about the best pitcher in baseball, right? That package doesn't even compare favorably to the one the Rangers got from the Braves for Mark Teixeira last season.

All of this might not even matter anyway. It seems like the Tigers basically have the division locked up for the next several years after pulling off this doozy.

Deal Or No Deal?

Johan Santana is still a Twin as I write this on Monday night. Of course, considering the nature of the current negotiations, I feel like that might change by the time I wake up in the morning.

The annual Winter Meetings are in full swing, and Santana is the hot topic. Numerous details about the Twins' talks with the Yankees and Red Sox have been popping up courtesy of various news outlets: Santana will not accept a trade during the 2008 season, Santana will not accept a trade to any team other than New York or Boston, the Yankees have imposed a 24-hour deadline at which point they will withdraw their offer (that deadline passed last night), so on and so forth. All these publicized details from what are supposed to be private trade discussions make me feel like getting back into my The Departed state of mind from last Friday and paraphrasing Sergeant Dignam: these negotiations have more leaks than the Iraqi navy.

Most of the details that have been leaked have been pretty weakly attributed ("a Twins official"; "a person familiar with the player's thinking"; etc.), so I'm not inclined to take a whole lot of these rumors too seriously. Yet, Yankees head honcho Hank Steinbrenner didn't feel the need to mask his identity when he came out and made the following comments to the New York Times:

“I don’t want to continue this dog-and-pony show, playing us against the Red Sox,” Steinbrenner said. “I’m not going to participate in that. This is our best offer. Minnesota knows it’s our best offer. Everybody knows it is.

“We need to get this done. If we don’t, I certainly won’t be upset about keeping Hughes and Cabrera. I definitely won’t. I don’t think Minnesota wants to be stuck negotiating with just one team.”

. . .

“How can I go any higher?” Steinbrenner said. “What do they want — Hughes, Kennedy and Cabrera? I can’t do that kind of thing. It’s crazy. It’s suicidal. In the past 20 or 30 years, teams have always asked more from the Yankees than they have of anybody else, and that’s going to stop. I’ve made the best offer Minnesota is going to get, and the fact is, it’s an offer we can go away happy and they can go away happy.”

Joe Christensen labeled Steinbrenner's comments "blatant tampering," which was also my first thought when I read them, at least given my understanding of how the league's tampering policies work. I'll be disappointed if Steinbrenner is not disciplined for his comments.

There's a reason people dislike the Yankees, and this is a big part of it. They try to impose their will and intimidate all the smaller market clubs. What exactly gives Steinbrenner and the Yankees the leverage to impose a deadline (on Dec. 3, no less)? They are the buyers in this situation, not the sellers. The Twins have no obligation to trade Santana, as much as Steinbrenner seems to be acting like they do. If he wants to withdraw his deal -- which is far from overwhelming -- then so be it. After the way the Alex Rodriguez situation played out just over a month ago, I don't think anyone is buying into this deadline business anyway.

This period of uncertainty is excruciating for Twins fans, and doubtlessly even more so for the beat writers who have to try to keep tabs on all the rumors flying around. That said, it seems that for the time being it is in Bill Smith's best interest to remain firm and be patient. The decisions he makes here will be crucially important to the future of the franchise. He can't afford to let himself get played by the Big Bad Empire.

The New Players: A First-Hand Perspective

The Twins acquired three new players in last week's trade with Tampa Bay. Most baseball fans are at least familiar with the players' names, but beyond the stats, stories and scouting reports, most of us don't know a whole lot about Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. To get a better idea of what types of positives and negatives these players bring with them, I went straight to the source, getting in contact with a Rays blogger to get some hometown perspective.

R.J. Anderson, senior columnist for the blog DRays Bay, was kind enough to get back to me with the following first-hand report on the newest Minnesota Twins:

It’s surreal to see the words “Delmon Young traded,” and not have it written as a rumor; it wasn’t long ago Delmon made his debut, hitting a home run against the White Sox after being pegged in his first at-bat. It felt like a turning point in the franchise’s otherwise pitiful history; this was our golden child – the real one, not Rocco Baldelli or Josh Hamilton or Toe Nash – no this was the real deal. In the past year plus he’d flash his arm – perhaps the best in the league – and his doubles stroke, but also his lack of plate discipline. I know some Twins fans have asked if he can play center, the answer is no! His arm is rendered nearly useless and he doesn’t have the range for it; far too many balls were misplayed by Young in center. He’s got a bit of an attitude issue as well, Joe Maddon benched him for not running out a groundball late in the year, and I believe some reports had him sticking his head into the Twins’ daycare of all places and saying “We just kicked your daddies’ asses!” early on in the season. In the past he infamously threw a bat and stated that he wanted to put in his “six and bolt,” but after that hasn’t had any discipline taken on him. On the field if he just learns to take a better approach at the plate he can become very special, but until he does that Twin fans might get a bit irritated with Delmon coming up against a pitcher who’s walked two straight with the bases loaded and seeing him ground into a double play on the first pitch – something he did quite a bit last year. If he works out the Rays will look like fools.

Harris was a very nice surprise; acquired from the Reds last January for cash he was a dark horse to make the roster but did just that when Jorge Cantu – coincidently with the Reds now – was sent to Durham. He showed some pop in limited action before taking over for the putrid Ben Zobrist at shortstop. Harris is what Joe Magrane referred to as a “trooper”; he doesn’t do anything overly well, but does a lot of stuff decently. I think he was a bit overexposed last year – hence his second half collapse – but otherwise shouldn’t bust next year. Defensively he really shouldn’t be at shortstop, and he’s only slightly better at second; he tries, which is good, but sometimes busting ass doesn’t equate to being good – overall I liked him better than Wigginton and I’d say he’s pretty much a wash with Bartlett with Minny getting the better hitter.

Pridie is a former second round pick with loads of tools, his BABIP for this year seems to indicate he’s not .900 OPS good, but he’s certainly better than Jason Tyner – and I love Jason Tyner – I’ve never seen him field, but all indications are he’s a major league center fielder. I’d like to think he’ll be at least league average and more valuable than putting say Steve Finley in center.

Thanks, R.J.! And everyone should make sure to check out DRays Bay for some good perspective on the trade from the other side.

The Departed

The title of this post is more than just a reference to one of my (and Mosvick's) favorite movies of all time. It's a reference to the three players the Twins lost in Wednesdays blockbuster swap with the Tampa Bay Rays.

There will undoubtedly be much analysis over the next weeks and months of the players the Twins received in this trade: Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. There will be plenty of that here, too, but for today I think it's important to take a look at the players who have exited the Twins' organization. Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan were Twins property on Tuesday, and now they aren't. What are the possible repercussions of losing these players? How will the team absorb the losses? What is the overarching effect?

Make no mistake, this is not a Terry Ryan type trade. Ryan traded A.J. Pierzynski when he had Joe Mauer waiting in the wings. He traded Bobby Kielty when he had a surplus of outfielders. There are a lot of adjectives that could be attached to Ryan's general style when it came to player transactions, but "risky" would certainly not be one of them.

The rookie GM Bill Smith hasn't been on the job for two full months yet, and already he's stepped out and made a move that is riskier than any Ryan made during his lengthy tenure. Smith was dealing from a surplus by trading a pair of pitching prospects, to be sure, but Garza was the only young pitcher in this organization with ace potential written all over him (aside from Francisco Liriano, who is of course a huge question at this time). Meanwhile, Morlan was the only player in the Twins' minor-league system that seemed to be a legitimate candidate to take over the closer role upon Joe Nathan's likely departure following the 2008 season (that is, if he isn't traded this winter). Bartlett was a good defensive shortstop with speed and a solid approach at the plate -- that's a valuable thing to have in this league.

What is it that compelled the Twins to trade these players? Surely the fact that the Rays wanted them had a lot to do with it, but I think the reasoning goes deeper. For whatever reason, Garza and Bartlett never seemed to be held in particularly high esteem by this organization. Both were held back in the minors by inferior veterans at one time or another. Twins coaches were frequently quoted in the papers with criticisms of the attitudes of both players. Bartlett lacked "leadership," and Garza was not "mature" enough to pitch at the big-league level. Indeed, both players have posted major-league numbers that can be viewed as disappointing in relation to what they did in the minors.

Garza has a great chance of becoming an outstanding major-league starter. He throws hard and possesses good secondary pitches. Yet, he always seemed tentative about throwing anything other than his fastball, and in 2007 his control -- which was stellar in his breakout 2006 campaign -- took a turn for the worse. If Garza becomes more comfortable with his breaking pitches and his changeup, he could team up with Scott Kazmir to give the Rays a formidable top of the rotation. If he doesn't, this will look like a good trade from the Twins' perspective.

I don't buy into the organization's criticisms of Bartlett and I think he'll end up being a pretty good player in Tampa Bay. He was a great hitter for three seasons in Triple-A, and he showed what he was capable of in the big leagues in 2006, when he hit .309/.367/.393. With that being said, I don't think Bartlett will be much more than an adequate hitter with a good glove and the ability to swipe a base. Of course, that could be much more than the Twins are able to field at shortstop next season.

As I stated in yesterday's post, Morlan is where I start to go sour on this deal. Selected in the third round of the 2004 draft, Morlan cruised his way through the lower levels of the Twins' minor league system while usually posting an exceptional ERA and always striking out more than a batter per inning. Morlan has the ability to hit triple-digits on the radar gun, and his stuff is electric. He finished last season with a short stint in Class-AA New Britain, where he would have started the 2008 season. Ideally, Morlan could have been pitching out of the Twins' bullpen by the end of next season; unfortunately, he's now Tampa Bay's property.

Losing a few of these players could come back to haunt the Twins. That's something that never happened to Ryan, which is the nature of a low-risk operation. Then again, who knows... perhaps Garza will flop in Tampa and Morlan will fizzle out in the high minor leagues. For whatever reason, the Twins seem to have a sense of things like this when trading their own players. Pierzynski had a major drop-off in his one season with the Giants, seeing his OPS drop by over 100 points from his last season with the Twins. Travis Bowyer, whom Ryan traded to the Marlins two years ago in exchange for Luis Castillo, experienced immediate shoulder problems and hasn't pitched an inning of professional baseball since he left the Twins.

Twins fans might be frustrated if they see Garza leading the Rays rotation with Morlan closing games for them in a few years. But one thing that we never really learned with Ryan around is that you have to give up talent if you want to give it back. Smith wanted Delmon Young, and he was going to do what it took to make him a Twin.

As Frank Costello said: "No one gives it to you. You have to take it."

Sorting Through the Rays Trade

As you are no doubt aware by now, Bill Smith made his first big move as Twins general manager yesterday, agreeing to a deal with the Rays that sends Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan to Tampa Bay in return for outfielders Delmon Young and Jason Pridie and infielder Brendan Harris.

This is a blockbuster trade, and likely a prelude of things to come. Losing Garza hurts, but the Twins remain likely to bring back a prized pitching prospect in the seemingly inevitable Johan Santana trade.

Meanwhile, the Twins bring in Delmon Young, who turned 22 in September and was viewed for a couple years as the best prospect in all of baseball. Young likely will take over in left field, with Jason Kubel sliding to designated hitter. Tampa Bay took Young, the younger brother of veteran Dmitri Young, with the first overall pick in the 2003 draft, and he subsequently cruised through the minor leagues to make his major-league debut at the age of 20. Debuting with the Rays in the final month of the 2006 season, Young hit .317/.336/.476 over 126 at-bats. In 2007, as a 21-year-old, Young hit .288/.316/.408 with 13 home runs and 93 RBI while playing in all 162 of Tampa Bay's games. That line might not seem very impressive, but for a 21-year-old with only three years of pro experience, it's extremely encouraging. Young hit 20+ home runs in both of his first two seasons in the minors and projects as a solid power hitter with very good speed -- he has the makings of a 30 HR/30 SB type player. He is also an excellent defensive corner outfielder with one of the best throwing arms in the game.

The one downside to Young's game is that he has almost no plate discipline. He has posted a sub par .319 on-base percentage over 192 major-league games, despite a very good .293 batting average. In his 2006 big-league debut, Young drew only one walk in 131 plate appearances, which is mind-boggling. Last year, he drew only 26 walks in 681 plate appearances, registering a .316 on-base percentage despite his solid .288 average. Of course, as long as Young can hit for good average and power, his lack of patience at the plate will not be a debilitating weakness.

It is somewhat surprising to see the Twins go for a player like Young, who has a documented history of losing his temper. In 2006, he was famously suspended for 50 games after throwing a bat at an umpire, and he was also suspended in 2005 after bumping an umpire during an altercation during a Double-A game. Obviously, that kind of thing won't be acceptable, but there's little doubt that Young brings a fiery and competitive attitude which, one could argue, might be a good thing for this laid-back, happy-go-lucky group of Twins players.

Garza-for-Young is clearly the meat of this deal, and I like that part, but there were a lot of other players moved in this swap as well, which is where things start to get a little less rosy. It's a bit surprising to see the Twins part with Bartlett, who was a solid shortstop both offensively and defensively with good speed. Then again, it seems like the organization never viewed Bartlett that highly, and Ron Gardenhire frequently seemed to take issue with the shortstop's attitude. From that standpoint, I suppose it's not overly shocking to see him go. The Rays' desire for Bartlett is puzzling, since their system contains one of the game's top shortstop prospects in Reid Brignac, but perhaps a position change is planned for him.

The Morlan part is where I start to dislike this trade. The original deal would have sent Juan Rincon to the Rays along with Garza and Bartlett, which would've been just fine. Some believed that trading the former dominant setup man right now would have been selling low, but I'm convinced that Rincon is a shell of his former self. He's also due a couple million bucks through arbitration next year, which he won't deserve. Unfortunately, the original deal hit a snag when the Rays had concerns over the medical reports on Rincon's elbow, and Smith ended up subbing in Morlan, who is by far the best relief prospect in the Twins system. Many had Morlan pegged to replace Joe Nathan as closer in 2009. Losing him is a huge hit, and with him in the deal, I feel like the Twins gave up way too much value in this trade.

The infielder that comes back to the Twins is Harris, who is coming off a career year in 2007 in which he hit .286/.343/.434 while playing primarily shortstop for the Rays. Prior to '07, he hadn't been much of a hitter in the major leagues, but at 27 he's still relatively young and considering his good minor league numbers, there's plenty of reason to think he can continue to be at least an average hitter. Whether he'll be doing that at shortstop remains to be seen, but I'll get to that a little bit later.

The final player involved in the deal is Pridie, a center fielder. Many will recognize the name because he was with the Twins in spring training as a Rule V pick in 2006, although he ended up being sent back to the Rays. The fact that the Twins gambled on him in the Rule V, however, tells us that he's a player they've had their eyes on for some time. In Triple-A this year, Pridie hit .318/.375/.539 with 10 home runs in 245 at-bats, which makes him look like an MLB-ready prospect. However, those numbers are a far cry from his career minor-league line of .272/.327/.432, so it's entirely possible that those outstanding stats were something of a fluke. Regardless, they're pretty good for a 23-year-old in the highest level of the minors, and there's little question that Pridie at least has the potential to develop into a major-league regular.

I said at the top of this post that yesterday's trade was a prelude of things to come, because it seems to be laying the groundwork for future moves. Because of that fact, we can't fully evaluate the trade at this point. At first glance, it would seem that Harris was brought in to replace Bartlett at shortstop, while Pridie could fill the vacated center field spot. However, Harris is a poor defensive shortstop and it's probably a stretch to think Pridie will be ready to take over a regular gig in the majors at the start of next season. It now seems clear that if the Twins trade Santana, they'll be looking to bring back a premier young starter to replace Garza, and a very good infielder. Could a Jose Reyes deal be in the works with the Mets? Can Smith pry Robinson Cano from the Yankees? We shall see what else is in store.

Upon the initial word of this trade, I was happy and I felt like the new GM was off to a great start. The fact that he had to throw in Morlan to get the deal done makes it much less impressive. The Twins needed hitting, and to his credit, Smith went out and got one of the most highly regarded young hitters in the game. That's good. The Garza-for-Young swap is a good one for both sides.

The rest of this deal doesn't look nearly as good and could turn out to be a large mistake. Unless Morlan breaks down, Pridie is going to have to turn out to be a pretty special player for Smith to be vindicated on this move.

Update: Twins/Rays Close To Deal

It appears that yesterday's reports of a deal being imminent between Twins and Rays were correct, although not the part about Boof Bonser being involved. A deal is reportedly in place that will send Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon to the Rays in return for outfielder Delmon Young, shortstop Brendan Harris and outfielder Jason Pridie. This is a blockbuster, folks. Much more analysis tomorrow.

Keeping Up With the Rumors

The Twins have been connected to an insane number of trade rumors lately. Let's take a glance:

Supposedly, the Twins and Yankees are in preliminary talks regarding Johan Santana. Meanwhile, the Boston Globe reports that talks between the Twins and Red Sox with regards to center fielder Coco Crisp are intensifying. And then, according to the Devil Rays blog DRaysBay, Boof Bonser has been down in Florida telling people that he is on the verge of being dealt to Tampa Bay. There's even a rumor floating around that the Twins are talking to the Angels about trading Justin Morneau for Casey Kotchman and Ervin Santana (huh??).

Bill Smith must be an awfully busy man to be chatting it up with all these general managers about potential trades. In truth, it's likely that many of these rumors are overblown (or completely fabricated), but such is the nature of MLB's Hot Stove season.

Strap in folks, it's going to be a long winter.

---

One more thing: Naturally, Bob Sansevere of the Pioneer Press has his own ideas. I'd comment, but Ken Tremendous over at FireJoeMorgan has already taken care of it.

Hot Corner Stopgap

Alex Rodriguez has found his way back to the Yankees. Mike Lowell has re-signed with the Red Sox. The remaining free agent third basemen will be sucked up at a premium by needy teams. The packages required to acquire a guy like Miguel Cabrera or Garrett Atkins via trade may be too steep for the Twins to handle. Whatever is Bill Smith to do about that nasty little situation at the hot corner?

Perhaps this isn't the correct year to push for a permanent answer at third base. Maybe the Twins would be well-served to wait another year, see how internal prospects like Danny Valencia progress, see how the third base market shapes up following the 2008 season.

That course of action might make sense, but some type of stopgap will be necessary. Nick Punto is not an option at third base, and while guys like Brian Buscher and Matt Macri have the potential to perform at a league-average level, it would be foolhardy for a team as desperately in need of offensive improvement as the Twins to enter a season relying entirely on unproven commodities.

So here's a name that hasn't been tossed around much with regards to the third base situation: Mark Loretta. He is more well-known as a second baseman, but Loretta has logged quite a few innings at third over the course of his career. His age (36) and lack of power (12 total home runs over the past three seasons) make him less than desirable, but he's a solid defender and he continues to post solid batting averages and on-base percentages late in his career. Last season with the Astros, Loretta batted .287/.352/.372 in 133 games, striking out only 41 times in 460 at-bats.

If the Twins do believe in Buscher (as I do), Loretta looks like an excellent platoon partner. Last year he hit .317/.395/.423 against lefties, and over the course of his career he is a .305/.391/.409 hitter versus southpaws.

Naturally, Loretta would not be a long-term option, but he wouldn't be likely to cost much more than $2-3 million, and at his age could not command more than a two-year deal, maximum. If Smith wishes to address third base in another manner but feels that Alexi Casilla could use another year to develop, Loretta could be a candidate to keep second base warm as well.

Definitely a guy worth keeping an eye on.