Notes for the Weekend

After putting the finishing touches on a sweep over the Nationals with a 9-3 victory yesterday, the Twins have won five of their last six games and have moved back above the .500 mark to 37-36. They have rebounded nicely from a 2-8 stretch which nearly knocked them into third place in the division, and are very much hanging around in this race. They currently trail the White Sox by 4 1/2 games for the AL Central lead, though it's worth noting that the Tigers have won nine straight and are breathing down the Twins' necks.

This weekend, the Twins have a three-game set against the Diamondbacks, who started the season very hot but haven't won a series in June. Tonight's tilt will pit Scott Baker against Randy Johnson, one of the game's all-time great left-handers and a pitcher who has performed quite well against the Twins historically. If the Twins right-handed hitters can't start to reverse their brutal trends against southpaws, this could be a very tough game. Tomorrow's game will be attended by a smattering of citizens from the SBG community (including myself), as Mr. Ball Guy will be holding his annual convention with a picnic preceding the ballgame. Nick Blackburn will get the nod against Micah Owings in that game; it should be interesting to see how Blackburn holds up after having his last start skipped due to elbow soreness. Sunday presents another interesting match-up with Livan Hernandez going against Brandon Webb. On May 16, Hernandez was 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA and Webb was 9-0 with a 2.56 ERA; since that point, Hernandez has gone 1-3 with a 7.91 and Webb has gone 2-3 with a 4.54. Certainly Hernandez's drop-off has been far steeper, but both pitchers have cooled off after strong starts. Webb lasted just 3 1/3 innings while surrendering seven runs in his most recent outing, and has experienced decreased velocity as of late due to what he's suggested may be a dead arm period. Webb is a terrific pitcher, but it looks like the Twins might be catching him at the right time.

I hope everyone has a great weekend, and I look forward to seeing some of you tomorrow afternoon.

Cleaning Up

When you have a lineup that doesn't feature a lot of power or a lot of great on-base percentages, it sure helps to have a cleanup hitter who is as ridiculously effective as Justin Morneau has been this season. Morneau entered last night's game with a .345/.434/.619 line with runners in scoring position, and he proceeded to drive in three runs in last night's win with a sacrifice fly in the first and RBI singles in the seventh and eighth. This one night after Morneau drove in both of the Twins' runs in a 2-1 victory in the series opener against the Nats. His success in these situations has been critical, because he's gotten a ton of opportunities. Compare Morneau's number of plate appearances with runners in scoring position to the other Twins regulars (entering last night's game):

Morneau: 99
Cuddyer: 77
Mauer: 74
Young: 70
Harris: 70
Kubel: 67
Gomez: 58
Lamb: 53
Casilla: 34

Morneau is not hitting the ball out of the park the way he has the past two years -- he's on pace for just 25 homers this season -- but his RBI total of 55 ties him with Carlos Quentin for second in the AL. This makes Morneau a powerful weapon and a crucial component of the Twins lineup.

The Twins rank sixth in the AL in runs scored despite sporting a worse team OPS than five of the teams that rank behind them. In no small part, this can be attributed to Morneau, who has consistently cleaned up in his ample opportunities to drive in runs.

Left in the Dark

A timely home run from Justin Morneau and a strong outing from Livan Hernandez prevented the Twins from another upsetting loss at the hands of a soft-tossing lefty last night. This time it was John Lannan stymieing the Twins bats for most of his seven innings of work.

The Twins' struggles against left-handed starters are well-documented, and the fact that the Twins struggled against the southpaw Lannan last night is not as disappointing as the reason they struggled against him. Here's what the Twins seven right-handed hitters in the lineup (including the switch-hitting Alexi Casilla) did against Lannan last night: 2-for-21 (.095) with two singles, a walk and three strikeouts. The only hitters who managed to do anything of consequence against Lannan were the two left-handed batters in the lineup, Joe Mauer (who went 2-for-3 with a walk and a double) and Justin Morneau (whose mammoth blast to right in the sixth inning scored Mauer and put the Twins in front).

Regardless of your feelings about Delmon Young, Craig Monroe and Michael Cuddyer, one thing is certain: these are guys who should be putting up numbers against lefties. The team's struggles against southpaws last year were a big part of the reason the team spent so much in players and money to bring in Young and Monroe, but the two have both failed miserably at this key task thus far. Young has hit .246/.295/.386 against lefties, while Monroe -- who has historically mashed southpaws -- has posted a miserable .106/.176/.106 line against them. That's ZERO extra-base hits in 51 plate appearances against left-handers for a guy who was basically brought in with the specific task of hitting them. Cuddyer, meanwhile, has hit .250/.350/.327 against lefties and has yet to hit a home run off one.

The funny thing is that Mauer and Morneau have both been surprisingly effective against left-handed pitching this year, so this team could actually be a force against southpaws if they were getting reasonably decent production from any of their middle-of-the-lineup right-handed bats. They're not, and it is extremely frustrating. The Twins may have won last night's game, but it still serves as a perfect example of a significant issue that is plaguing this team.

Return of the Franchise

When Francisco Liriano joined the Twins earlier this season and went 0-3 with an 11.32 ERA and 7-to-13 strikeout to walk ratio over three starts, it seemed evident that he had a long ways to go before he'd be an effective major-league pitcher again. I felt that we wouldn't be seeing him in a Twins uniform until at least after the All-Star break, if not 2009.

Much to my surprise and delight, Liriano made very quick strides upon his return to Class-AAA Rochester. After an ugly first start back with the Red Wings (4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 BB), Liriano started to make demonstrable adjustments. In nine starts since then, he has pitched 6+ innings eight times, allowed three or fewer runs eight times and issued two or fewer walks seven times. He's throwing more strikes and pitching deep into ballgames. Over his past four starts, he has gone 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 26-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 25 2/3 innings. Considering how far away he looked back in April, there's no way I could have anticipated that Liriano would be pitching so well so soon, even if it is just at the Triple-A level. Reports indicate that he has added a few ticks to his velocity and that he's harnessed his fastball, which he struggled mightily to command during his stint with the Twins.

Despite his success, the Twins would probably like to be patient with Liriano. However, just as was the case back in April, circumstances may force the team to move ahead of its desired schedule with the left-hander. Livan Hernandez's performance has spiraled as of late, and with the number of hits and runs he is giving up each time out, it doesn't seem like Ron Gardenhire will be able to continue trotting him out there every fifth day without the players and fans revolting. Even if Gardy elects to keep sticking with Hernandez, it was recently revealed that Nick Blackburn is going to miss his next scheduled start due to muscle soreness in his throwing elbow. The Twins have stated that Blackburn is still on pace to start on Saturday, but these things tend to linger and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Blackburn end up on the disabled list. If that happens and the Twins need another pitcher, it's somewhat difficult to justify calling on anyone other than Liriano.

While Liriano is basically assured to have more success in his next shot with the Twins than he did last time, it's still probably best to keep expectations low. His devastating slider was the main ingredient for his success back in 2006, and by all accounts that pitch is still nowhere near where it was prior to surgery. In all likelihood, it will probably never get back to that point. But Liriano is a good, smart pitcher who can have success if he locates and mixes his pitches, even if those pitches aren't as nasty as they once were. The fact that he's started missing bats down in Rochester is certainly an encouraging sign.

It seems inevitable that Liriano will be getting another shot in a Twins uniform. How soon? At this point, that may be dictated by factors other than his arm.

Livan on the Edge

Back on May 16, I posted an article titled The Truth About Boof, in which I examined the performance of Boof Bonser (who was then 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA) and Livan Hernandez (who was then 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA). The post came in reaction to cries for Bonser to be removed from the rotation, and my basic contention was that Bonser was not pitching nearly as poorly as his basic numbers suggested, whereas the opposite was true of Hernandez. I predicted that the numbers would start to reflect these truths as time went on, and concluded the post by stating "there is plenty of reason to believe that the hefty Cuban is due for some decline while Bonser improves, so one month from now I think we could very easily be hearing the same cries of outrage directed at Hernandez."

Exactly one month later, it certainly appears that I've whiffed on Bonser. He was demoted to the bullpen just a few starts after I wrote the article, and he has now been charged with earned runs in four of his five appearances as a reliever. I maintain that Bonser is not nearly as bad a pitcher as many seem to believe (through it all, he still has a 4.48 xFIP and his strikeout rate has been good since he joined the bullpen), but with his 6.45 ERA, it's pretty tough for me to stand by Bonser at this point.

Nevertheless, my remarks regarding Hernandez have proven prescient. He began a precipitous decline almost immediately after I made that post, and has gone 0-3 with a 9.38 ERA and .438 BAA in six starts since, allowing more than two hits per inning during that span while averaging less than six innings per start. Calls for Hernandez to be booted from the rotation have begun to surface, and indeed, that moment may not be too far off.

I can hardly feel smug about my prognostication on this one. To many, Hernandez's downfall was as predictable as John McCain starting a speech with the phrase, "My friends." Quite simply, Hernandez's strategy of not striking anyone out and letting opposing hitters hit the ball (and hard) was not going to yield remotely successful results for an extended period of time. No amount of veteran moxie or guile can magically cause batters to hit line drives directly at fielders. Eventually Hernandez's utterly hittable stuff was going to catch up with him, and it certainly appears that that time has come.

A stark parallel can be drawn between the paths taken by Hernandez this year and by another veteran free agent signing for the Twins from last season, Ramon Ortiz. Much like Hernandez, Ortiz was a mid-30s right-hander with declining numbers who many felt the Twins overpaid for. Similar to Hernandez, Ortiz got his Twins career off to a surprising start, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA through his first five starts. Yet, just like with Hernandez, Ortiz's luck quickly caught up with him, as he went 0-3 with a 10.97 ERA over his next five starts before being demoted to the bullpen at the end of May. Hernandez's success lasted a little longer, so the Twins are showing a bit more patience with him, but I can't imagine he's long for the rotation with the way he's getting battered in every outing.

By letting batters put the ball in play consistently, Hernandez has been living on the edge. After a surprisingly strong start, that strategy has stopped working as of late. There's no reason to believe it will start working again soon. So how long until Hernandez follows Bonser's fate?

Friday Rundown

Another day, another blowout loss.  The Twins fell to the Indians 12-2 last night thanks in large part to another horrendous outing from Livan Hernandez, their seventh loss in eight games.   This team is just incredibly brutal right now.  No one can hit, no one can pitch... it's bad.  Anyway, here are a few random notes:

* In Wednesday night's win over the Indians, Carlos Gomez successfuly stole a base for the first time since May 25. After a quick start -- nine steals in his first 15 games -- the speedy center field had been stuck at 17 for nearly two weeks and had been caught on five consecutive attempts.

Clearly, those early dreams that Gomez would swipe 100 bases this bases this season were way off the mark, and at this point it appears that even 60 is an improbable goal. Opposing teams seem to have adjusted to his style, and he will have to make adjustments of his own to return to being a dominating threat on the bases. His 6-for-13 mark on stolen bases since the beginning of May simply isn't acceptable for a guy with his speed.

* In order to add an extra position player to their roster for the upcoming slate of interleague games which will open in Milwaukee this weekend, the Twins have decided to part ways with reliever Juan Rincon. As Aaron Gleeman noted yesterday, Rincon has seen a steady decline in essentially every important statistical category over the past four years, and after a decent start in 2008, he's been completely incapable of getting batters out lately. He had a 3.24 ERA on May 17, but in nine appearances since that point he has posted a 10.32 ERA while allowing opponents to bat .404 against him. It's a subject that most people do not wish to broach, but Rincon has just never been the same since he was suspended for performance-enhancing drugs back in 2005. (Although Judd Spicer shared some thoughts on the topic a few days ago on his exceptional blog over at City Pages.)

To replace Rincon, the Twins have elected to call up Brian Buscher, who has had a few stints with the Twins over the past couple seasons. Buscher had a breakout year in his first season with the Twins organization last year after being nabbed in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft the previous winter, and he has worked at Rochester this year to prove that his performance a year ago was no fluke. In 53 games with the Red Wings, Buscher has batted .319/.402/.514 with a nearly even 21-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Whatever adjustments he made last year, it appears that they have stuck with him.

I'm a fan of Buscher, as illustrated by the fact that I sponsored his page on Baseball Reference, and with the way Mike Lamb is struggling, I think Buscher will get every chance to gain regular playing time at third base with the Twins.

* The Twins will spend the next three days playing without a DH in Milwaukee, and my hope is that we won't be seeing Delmon Young starting in left field with Jason Kubel on the bench. This course of action would make little sense, for a few reasons. First of all, while Young continues to trudge along with an ugly 669 OPS and one home run on the season, Kubel has rebounded from a slow start to bat .303/.404/.539 with four homers since May 13. Also, the Twins are scheduled to face Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan and Seth McClung in the series, all of whom are right-handers. Kubel has posted an 805 OPS against righties this year; that figure is a demonic 666 for Demon... er, Delmon.

It seems entirely obvious that Kubel should be starting at least two, if not all three, of the games in this upcoming series. Hopefully Ron Gardenhire has the good sense to make it happen. The manager did plug in Kubel instead of Young against left-hander Aaron Laffey last night; the fact that he's abandoning his traditional righty-versus-lefty preference to get the better hitter into the lineup is a promising development, in my mind.

Flipping the Byrd

There's nothing all that remarkable about Paul Byrd. He doesn't strike people out, he gives up a decent number of hits, and he doesn't get all that many ground balls. He throws the ball in the strike zone and lets batters hit it. That is a strategy that has historically worked for him against the Twins, as he entered last night's game with a 10-3 career record and 3.50 ERA against the hometown nine.

Yet the Twins, mired in their worst slump of the season, would have no more of that business last night. They jumped on Byrd for five runs in the third inning and got a strong start from Nick Blackburn, leading them to a victory to end their six-game skid, in spite of a scare thanks to the bullpen.

Ron Gardenhire gets a lot of credit for the way he manages the bullpen, and deservedly so, but last night I really thought he over-managed. After replacing Blackburn to start the sixth, Boof Bonser put a pair of runners on with a walk and a ground ball base hit. Yet, he came back to get an out on a liner back to the mound and then struck out Jamey Carroll on a nice breaking ball. Bonser seemed on the verge of working out of his sticky situation, but rather than allowing the former starter to try and retire Grady Sizemore and get out of the inning, Gardenhire went to Dennys Reyes. While Sizemore was hitting just .219 against lefties this season, he sported a .367 on-base percentage and 758 OPS, neither of which are really all that far below his overall marks. Admittedly, Reyes was probably a better match-up against Sizemore than Bonser -- and it was certainly tough to predict that Sizemore would rip a three-run homer off the lefty Reyes -- but I think this is a situation where Gardenhire really should have let Bonser finish the inning. The guy isn't a situational middle reliever; he's a converted starter trying to regain confidence.

Alas, Reyes let in both of his inherited runners and Bonser saw his ERA shoot up to 6.19, really through no fault of his own. It's just been that kind of season for Boof.

In any case, the rough patch between Bonser and Reyes ultimately wound up being irrelevant because Jesse Crain and Joe Nathan shut the Indians down the rest of the way while Alexi Casilla and Justin Morneau chipped in ninth inning RBIs to seal a comfortable 8-5 win.

Out-Dueled

Despite his battles with injuries and some surprising early performances from other hurlers, I have continually pushed Scott Baker as the best starter in the Twins rotation this season. Last night, he certainly looked the part, ending a string of ugly outings from Twins starters by holding the Indians to one run over seven innings of work. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough to end the Twins' current losing streak, as the offense came up empty against C.C. Sabathia in a crushing 1-0 loss.

Now, to be fair, Sabathia's 4.81 ERA entering last night's game did not reflect how well he has pitched for the majority of the season. After starting the season 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA and 14-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first four games, Sabathia had bounced back nicely, going 3-5 with a 2.38 ERA and 68-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in nine starts since. Last night, Sabathia gave up a few hits early, but settled in after giving up a single to Joe Mauer in the third and retired 17 straight batters, cruising through the ninth inning with a shutout and an impressively low pitch count.

The Twins managed just five hits in the game, all singles and none after the fourth inning. Two of the hits came on bunts, and the Twins did not draw a walk in the game. Tonight they will throw Nick Blackburn against Paul Byrd, a pitcher whom they have historically struggled against. Let's hope they can get some better results and worked their way out of this skid.

South Side Slug Fest

After being thoroughly pummeled in two straight games, the Twins finally took a lead in the fourth inning yesterday afternoon when Jason Kubel shot a line drive down the right field line to score Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and break a 1-1 tie. Nick Swisher responded with a solo homer in the bottom half of the inning, but in the next frame, Mauer and Morneau scored again, this time on a Michael Cuddyer double. The Twins led 5-2. Light was creeping through the looming clouds that smothered U.S. Cellular Field. The glimpse of light was short-lived.

Glen Perkins walked Jim Thome on four pitches with one out in the bottom of the sixth. On came Jesse Crain, who surrendered a two-run homer to Swisher. 5-4. In the next inning, the Sox touched up Matt Guerrier for three more runs, capped by a two-run dinger off the bat of Paul Konerko. 7-5. The Twins threatened to come back against closer Bobby Jenks in the ninth when Carlos Gomez delivered a leadoff double and Alexi Casilla followed with a single, but the rally was foiled when Joe Mauer tapped into a double play and Justin Morneau grounded out to short.

Certainly, it's difficult to excuse the abysmal performance displayed by the Twins pitching staff during this past series. Nobody could get outs. Over four games, the Sox batted .400 and smashed an astonishing 23 extra-base hits -- including 11 homers -- for a .717 slugging percentage. Those numbers are downright ghastly. That is some bad, bad pitching. Yet, considering that nearly every pitcher on the staff took part in the clobbering this weekend, it's probably reasonable to chalk this one up largely to a red-hot offense playing in their home park. How the Twins pitchers respond in Cleveland over the next three days will be crucially important.

The Twins, scratching at first place just a week ago, now find themselves two games under .500 and very much in danger of being surpassed by Cleveland for second place in the division. The season is far from lost, but this weekend's slaughter in Chi-town was nothing less than humiliating. The Twins need to get back on track, and fast, before things truly spin out of control.

Reality Check

Between the intermittent rain showers, the belligerent screaming fans to my immediate left and the drubbing the Twins took at the hands of the White Sox, my first exposure to U.S. Cellular Field on Saturday night was not exactly ideal. Still, it was an opportunity to watch the Twins outdoors, and The Cell certainly has some interesting features.

I wouldn't say that the White Sox' stadium has a great deal of character, but it's a nice ballpark. It's industrial, it's straightforward, it's huge... essentially, it's very Chicago. The Sox fans were a bit mean-spirited, but for the most part in a good-natured way. Certainly not as amicable as the fans in Milwaukee or Kansas City, but better than Oakland.

The most humorous part of the experience was when the lady next to me, sitting alone and wearing a White Sox shirt, kept asking me questions about White Sox players. "Which one is Swisher?" ... "Which one is Thome?" ... "Who is No. 23?" I'm thinking to myself, You're lucky I'm a pretty big baseball fan so I actually know the answers to these questions, but do you really think a guy wearing a Twins jersey and a Twins cap is the best source for information on Chicago players? Eventually she started asking me questions about the White Sox base coaches, at which point I had to end the conversation.

As for the Twins, well... whew. Bad. They've been outscored 33-9 over three games against the White Sox, getting horrible pitching and mostly terrible offense. It's not over yet, but so far this has been the worst series I can remember since the one in Detroit back in early 2006 where the Twins were swept and outscored 33-1 over three games.

Indeed, the Twins are spiraling. But should we really be surprised? I'll admit that even I had gotten caught up in how well the team was playing, to the extent that I was overlooking how unsustainable that success was. With all the magical comebacks, gutsy pitching performances and big clutch hits, I had come to gleefully ignore the plain facts that were in front of my eyes. Guys like Livan Hernandez, Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn were not pitching well enough to continue consistently getting the kinds of results they were getting, and the offense was overachieving thanks to some ridiculous numbers with runners in scoring position. It's unfortunate that everything has come crashing down simultaneously, and all during the team's biggest series of the season up to this point. Over these first three games in Chicago, the Twins have ruined an opportunity to move closer to first place in the division, and instead reminded people why they were widely picked to finish fourth or fifth in the division prior to the season.

To draw one positive from the weekend, I'll say this: I was one of a select few Twins fans who actually got to see Delmon's first Twins home run in person! Yay?

Draft Recap, Plus Other Notes

I've come to loathe the NFL Draft. It seems like the day after the Super Bowl, we're already seeing every sports channel and website piling on with mock drafts and over-analysis of some offensive guard who will probably go in the fourth round. The hype surrounding the event has grown to such ludicrous proportions that by the time the April draft rolls around, I just don't care anymore.

The MLB draft is much more tolerable. Only recently has ESPN even begun televising the event, and the build-up is much less overbearing. It's like you wake up one day and say, "Oh, hey... the draft is today."

Well, that day was yesterday, and the Twins made their first seven selections in an important draft where they owned three of the first 31 slots. With their first pick, they selected Aaron Hicks, a switch-hitting outfielder out of Woodrow Wilson High School in California. I've been tracking Hicks for some time now, as he strikes me as very much a Twins type of player and there was a good chance he'd be available at the 14 spot.

Hicks is extremely athletic, advanced defensively and very toolsy all-around. He also pitched in high school and displayed a fastball that touched 97 mph, but he has made it fairly clear that his preference is to stick in the outfield as a pro. The MiLB.com scouting report calls Hicks "one of the more athletic outfielders in the high school ranks and perhaps in the Draft class," but notes that "if he doesn't hit, those raw tools will be wasted." Hicks strikes me as a similar player to Austin Jackson, the Yankees outfield prospect whom the Twins were reportedly targeting in Johan Santana trade talks over the winter. Hicks is quite raw and the Twins will have a lot of work to do with him, but his upside is tremendously high and he could one day turn into a dazzling big-league outfielder.

The selection of Hicks is certain to be controversial among Twins fans, since the team didn't exactly use its first pick to draft into an area of weakness. This organization is chock full of athletic center field types, from Carlos Gomez to Denard Span to Dustin Martin to Joe Benson to, most recently, Ben Revere (who is still tearing up the Midwest League with a batting average over .400). There's some truth to that notion, but considering how undeveloped his tools are, it's rather unlikely that Hicks will be nearing the majors any sooner than 2012 at the earliest. Much can change in four years -- by that time several of the aforementioned prospects may have flopped and Gomez may have shifted to right field. I think it's quite reasonable to believe that Hicks was the best player on the board when the Twins selected, and that makes him a good pick.

The Twins second pick came later in the first round, with the No. 27 selection they received from the Angels as a result of the Torii Hunter signing. With this pick, the Twins selected right-hander Carlos Gutierrez, a closer from the University of Miami. This selection was far more questionable than that of Hicks, as Gutierrez was rarely mentioned as a first-round talent and was ranked by Baseball America as the 82nd best player in the draft. Gutierrez has already gone through Tommy John surgery, and he throws between 90-94 mph with good downward movement. He seems like an unremarkable player right now, but perhaps the Twins believe he will gain velocity and turn into a dominator as he moves away from his elbow surgery.

The Twins have a fine history with drafting college pitchers, but it's tough not to be a little disappointed by this pick, as Gutierrez very likely would have been available in later rounds. My thinking is that the Twins wanted to use this selection on left-hander Christian Friedrich out of Eastern Kentucky University, who had gone to the Rockies just two picks earlier. The Twins are likely to need bullpen help within the next few years though, and Gutierrez is likely to move quickly through the system, so certainly there is some logic behind taking him. There is also some talk that they may try and convert him to a starter.

With the No. 31 sandwich pick -- another return from the Hunter signing -- the Twins grabbed Shooter Hunt, a right-handed pitcher from Tulane University. Hunt is a much better pick, considered a mid-to-late first-round talent with electric stuff. He throws in the low-to-mid 90s and features a power curveball and has the potential for an above-average changeup. Hunt has struggled with his control at times, but the Twins seem like the right organization to help him with that issue. Here's the scouting report for Hunt:

With a strong junior season, Hunt has moved himself into serious first-round contention. While the right-hander doesn't always command his pitches well -- he's walked a few too many this year -- he's got terrific stuff, most notably his fastball and curve, both of which are above average. He hasn't needed a changeup much, but he has the feel for one. There might be one or two right-handers who rank ahead of Hunt heading into the Draft, but he's not too far behind them in the pecking order.

The Twins didn't pick again until No. 60, where they took 20-year-old shortstop Tyler Ladendorf. Ladendorf is a somewhat uncharacteristic pick for the Twins, who generally like to go after projectable high school hitters with selections in this area. Ladendorf was drafted by the Yankees out of high school in the 34th round in 2006, but he opted to go to to Howard College. He was again drafted in the 34th round in 2007 -- this time by the Giants -- but elected to return to Howard for another year where he increased his stock substantially. At 5'11" and 190 lbs, Ladendorf may be too big to stick at shortstop, but he's said to be athletic enough to handle a position switch and could be a contributor down the line if he hits.

At 92, the Twins took right-hander Bobby Lanigan of Adelphi University. Lanigan doesn't throw particularly hard, but has a good mix of pitches that he can locate well. He was ranked by Baseball America as the 129th best draft prospect, and as such seems like a bit of a reach in the third round, but certainly he is the type of pitcher that this organization has had success with in the past (see: Baker, Scott and Slowey, Kevin).

The Twins used their final two picks of the day to grab center fielder Danny Ortiz out of a Puerto Rican high school in the fourth round at No. 126, and third baseman Nicholas Romero out of San Diego State in the fourth round at No. 156.

All in all, this was a fairly typical draft for the Twins. They used their highest picks to get a toolsy high school outfielder and some college arms. They definitely reached on Gutierrez, but made up for that by nabbing Hunt at 31, who easily could have gone somewhere between 10-20. Overall I'm fairly happy with the new players they've acquired and look forward to seeing how the kids handle the rookie leagues in the second half of the season.

* The Twins fell to the Orioles 3-2 yesterday, capping off a series loss in the wake of a solid string of games against the Royals and Yankees. On the plus side, Scott Baker pitched well in his first game back from the disabled list, holding the O's scoreless over five frames outside of a two-run homer off the bat of Nick Markakis.

* Ron Gardenhire's choice to carry 13 pitchers seemed pretty silly to begin with, and it seems all the more misguided after the team had to risk an injury to one of its best starting pitchers yesterday when Kevin Slowey was used as a pinch-runner for Mike Redmond in the eighth inning.

* Matt Macri didn't even board the plane back to Rochester before learning that he'd be sticking with the Twins for the time being, as Nick Punto is headed back to the disabled list with a bad hamstring. Unfortunate timing for Punto, who doubled twice in yesterday's game and currently sports numbers quite similar to the ones he put up in his career year of 2006.

* Francisco Liriano started for Rochester yesterday, going six innings and allowing three runs (all on a home run). His control took a step back, as he walked four and threw just 53 of 96 pitches for strikes, but he did notch seven strikeouts for a second consecutive outing. Liriano seems to be making strides, but don't expect to see him up anytime before the All-Star break.

* I'm heading out to Chicago this weekend, and I'll be taking in the Twins/White Sox match-up at U.S. Cellular Field on Saturday night. I'll be sure to check in with a full recap on Monday. Have a great weekend everyone.

The Key to the Division?

There's been an interesting trend in the AL Central over the past few seasons, and that is that the team that has won the division has consistently done so thanks in large part to phenomenal bullpen performance.

Now, this fact in and of itself is not terribly surprising; a strong bullpen is necessary to hold leads and win games. Yet, in each of the past three seasons, the AL Central Champion has received absurdly good performances from multiple relievers -- performances that seeming came out of nowhere. Observe:

2005 CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Reliever: 2005 ERA (Career ERA)

Dustin Hermanson: 2.04 (4.21)
Neal Cotts: 1.94 (4.49)
Cliff Pollitte: 2.00 (4.40)

OK, that's freakin' ridiculous. The Twins captured similar lightning in '06, though to a lesser degree...

2006 MINNESOTA TWINS

Reliever: 2006 ERA (Career ERA)
Dennys Reyes: 0.89 (4.37)
Juan Rincon: 2.91 (3.60)
Pat Neshek: 2.19 (2.91)

And last year, the Tribe...

2007 CLEVELAND INDIANS

Reliever: 2007 ERA (Career ERA)
Rafael Betancourt: 1.47 (2.98)
Aaron Fultz: 2.92 (4.26)
Rafael Perez: 1.78 (2.59)

In some cases, these were good relievers that simply had exceptional years. In other cases (Reyes, Fultz, all the White Sox guys) we saw mediocre pitchers put up unbelievable numbers out of nowhere.

In any case, this odd little trend suggests that the team with the ridiculous bullpen will end up winning the division. Does that pattern hold up this year? Well, the first-place White Sox currently rank No. 1 in the AL in bullpen ERA at 2.86. Meanwhile, the second-place Twins rank sixth at 3.48, while the Tigers (4.40) and Indians (4.44) rank 12th and 13th, respectively.

This year, Chicago's crazy bullpen contributions are coming from the likes of Boone Logan (2.29 ERA, 5.03 career), Scott Linebrink (1.50 ERA, 3.12 career) and closer Bobby Jenks (1.54 ERA, 3.06 career). Meanwhile, the Twins have gotten typically great production from Joe Nathan, but have lost their second-best reliever for the year and are getting sub par performances from guys like Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain.

You don't HAVE to have a great bullpen to succeed -- the Tigers sported a 4.40 ERA last season on their way to the World Series -- but as the trends above illustrate, it sure does help. Currently, the Twins' relief corps seems to be heading in the wrong direction. They've fallenf rom the top of the league to the middle of the pack over the past couple weeks, and it's hard to feel comfortable any time a starter hands a small lead to the bullpen in the sixth or seventh inning.

How to improve on this issue? Maybe the answer is to bring in some fresh blood in the form of a Tim Lahey or a Mariano Gomez from Triple-A. Maybe the answer is, as Howard Sinker suggests, parting ways with Rincon, who just can't seem to get anyone out these days.

I don't really know what the best solution is. What I do know is that we Twins fans have become accustomed to seeing a stellar bullpen over the past several years, and that the Twins are going to have an extremely difficult time remaining near the top of the standings if the quality of the 'pen continues to deteriorate.

Orioles 5, Twins 3

Not much to say about a game like last night's. The Twins didn't play terribly, but simply got beat. Radhames Liz pitched a surprisingly good game, Kevin Slowey made a few too many mistakes, and the Twins took a 5-3 loss.

I thought Slowey pitched OK. The offense was probably due for a bit of a letdown since it has been so hot as of late, but it was nice to see the Twins still push a few runs across. I suspect they'll have a hard time doing so tonight against Daniel Cabrera, a pitcher whom they have historically struggled against and whom is having a very good season.

Month in Review: May

Apologies for being AWOL yesterday. I was up north for a bachelor party over the weekend and needed a day to recover. Anyway, here's the Month in Review for May, a couple days late.

May Record: 15-13
Overall Record: 28-27 (2nd Place in AL Central)

TEAM REVIEW

The story of the month for the Twins was offensive improvement. After averaging only 3.8 runs per game in April, the Twins bumped that number up to 5.5 in May thanks to individual improvements nearly across the board. The pitching took a bit of a step back, with Boof Bonser having a real tough month that will likely see him knocked out of the rotation and Pat Neshek's injury taking a toll on the bullpen. Nevertheless, the improved offense led to a run differential of +8 (this in spite of the 19-3 shellacking in Detroit), a clear improvement over the -20 run differential in April.

Essentially, the Twins in May were pretty much exactly the team I was expecting overall this year. Solid offense, inconsistent starting pitching, and a record right around .500. What I didn't anticipate was that that record would put them within a couple games of first place.

THREE UP, THREE DOWN
A look at three players whose performances were outstanding over the past month, and three who fell bellow expectations.

Three Up:
1. Joe Mauer: .333/.442/.387, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 17 R, 0/0 SB
The lack of power from Mauer is disconcerting, as he managed only five extra-base hits (all doubles) in 93 at-bats and slugged only .387 for the month, but he's certainly contributing in other ways. Mauer drew 19 walks compared to only eight strikeouts in May, good for a fantastic .442 on-base percentage. He also stayed healthy and in the lineup, appearing in 24 of the team's 28 games.

2. Carlos Gomez: .299/.349/.448, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 17 R, 6/10 SB
After posting a ghastly .279 OBP in the season's first month, Gomez raised his batting average considerably in May and, in turn, reached base about 35 percent of the time. While far from ideal, that type of clip makes Gomez a useful leadoff man, especially when he's stealing bases and showing solid power. He's still striking out too much (more than once every four at-bats in May), but it was nevertheless an encouraging month for the young man.

3. Mike Lamb: .302/.340/.407, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 11 R, 0/1 SB
Lamb was one of the worst regulars in baseball in April, but finally started to look more like the hitter the Twins thought they were getting during the month of May. He still didn't show a great deal of patience or power, but he improved his batting average by more than 100 points.

Three Down:
1. Boof Bonser: 30.1 IP, 0-2, 8.60 ERA, 20 K / 11 BB, 1.62 WHIP
Bonser simply could not find his way out of the funk he got himself into. He was frequently the victim of bad luck and poor defense, but there's no denying that he had a poor month on the hill. He'll likely find himself in the bullpen when Scott Baker returns this week.

2. Brendan Harris: .217/.320/.289, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 11 R, 1/2 SB A solid contributor during the season's first month, Harris struggled at the plate in May. His batting average was horrible, and so was his slugging percentage thanks to a total of four extra-base hits in 23 games. Harris showed decent patience and drew 12 walks, but he needs to start hitting the ball.

3. Michael Cuddyer: .212/.273/.297, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 12 R, 3/3 SB
Just a really bad offensive month for Cuddyer. Could be that he's still being affected by the hand injury that seemingly sapped his power late last year. At the very least, he's off to a better start in June.

PROSPECT OF THE MONTH
Danny Valencia - Ft. Myers Miracle

It wasn't too long ago that third base was a major sore spot for this organization. Last year, the team was getting horrid production at the position from Nick Punto, and Matt Moses and David Winfree had basically fallen off the prospect map. Trading for a third base prospect seemed like the only way to give this team some hope at the hot corner. Fortunately, that's starting to change. Along with April's prospect of the month, Luke Hughes (who continues to hit well in New Britain), Danny Valencia is really making a case to be the Twins' heir at third. After a solid April, Valencia flipped a switch in May and raked to the tune of .402/.431/.663 with 17 extra-base hits and 25 RBI in 24 games. He'll likely move up to Double-A in the near future, which will be a good test for the college-trained hitter.

JUNE PREVIEW

The Twins held their own with a fairly tough schedule in May, but things won't get too much easier in June. The Twins finish up their current homestand against the Orioles, then have a tough divisional road trip where they travel to Chicago to face the first-place White Sox and then to Cleveland to face the underperforming Indians. Then it's on to interleague play, where the Twins have the misfortune of playing nine games against the Brewers and Diamondbacks (though they also have three games apiece against the Nationals and Padres, both of whom have struggled this year).

Friday Notes

The Twins broke their Thursday spell last night with a win to complete a sweep over the hapless Royals. Kevin Slowey hurled a complete game, allowing just one run on an RBI double off the bat of Alex Gordon with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Twins pitchers will have a bit of a tougher task ahead of them against the Yankees this weekend, but for the time being, the Twins have won five of six and are three games above .500. Life is good. A couple notes:

* Yesterday the Twins acquired Craig Breslow off waivers from the Indians. A 27-year-old lefty reliever, Breslow owned a 3.24 ERA and 7-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 8 1/3 innings this season, and a holds a 2.95 ERA over 36 2/3 career major-league innings. While the ERA is good, Breslow's big-league WHIP is an ugly 1.67, his numbers against left-handed hitters have been underwhelming and he has struggled with his control. Nevertheless, he posted good strikeout rates throughout the minors and looks like a fairly decent addition.

While the team's desire to add another left-handed reliever to the bullpen is understandable, it is interesting that they felt the need to go outside of the organization to get one. There are a pair of southpaw relievers down in Rochester who have put up pretty good numbers this season, and seemingly have earned a shot at pitching in the big leagues. Mariano Gomez has posted a 2.27 ERA and 23-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing only one homer over 31 2/3 innings, and Ricky Barrett has posted a 3.38 ERA in 29 1/3 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .216 average. While the two have pitched well this year, Gomez hadn't proven much prior to this year and Barrett has struggled with his control (as usual); those factors might help explain why the Twins sought to acquire a more reliable option.

Breslow is expected to join the Twins in time for their series opener against the Yankees tonight.

* There is a tendency amongst fans of a baseball organization to want to see prospects promoted aggressively. This makes sense -- most fans follow the big-league club and they want to see talented young players making an impact with the team as soon as possible. If a prospect goes on a hot streak, you'll almost always see message boards and blogs filled with calls to see him sent up to the next level.

People who advocate promotions based solely on statistical proficiency tend to overlook some important factors in whether or not a young player should be moved up. How is he handling things mentally? How is his attitude? Is there room at his position at the next level? Is he old enough that a promotion is warranted? I generally tend to agree with the organization's rather conservative philosophy in promoting prospects, so I have no problem with the previously unspectacular Luke Hughes -- this blog's Prospect of the Month in April -- spending some more time in New Britain to prove that his incredibly hot start is for real, or with 2007 first-rounder Ben Revere hanging in Low-A Beloit for a while despite the fact that he's hitting almost .400 there.

With that said, there are a couple guys in Class-A Ft. Myers who I think the Twins really need to move up to New Britain very soon: reliever Anthony Slama and third baseman Danny Valencia. Slama -- a lanky right-hander with a funky delivery -- has absolutely dominated out of the Miracle bullpen this year, allowing just one earned run over 28 1/3 innings (0.32 ERA) while posting a fantastic 46-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and getting tons of ground balls. While he's in just his first full pro season after joining the Twins last year, Slama is already 24 years old, which gives him a distinct advantage over the younger hitters in A-ball. Meanwhile, Valencia is hitting .347/.409/.571 in Ft. Myers with five homers and 17 doubles in 47 games. He's 23.

The outstanding numbers being posted by these young men are certainly encouraging, but it's not exactly unusual for college products like Slama and Valencia to dominate the low minors. The step up to Double-A will be a big one for both players and will likely serve as a strong indicator as to how close they are to big-league ready. Being that both players fill what are likely to be positions of need for the Twins in the near future, I think it's best that the organization move them up to a more fitting level of competition and see how they handle it.

A Royal Comeback

It's very rare that I ever feel much empathy for a team that the Twins beat. But last night, as I watched Craig Monroe's pinch-hit three-run homer sail over the fence, capping a five-run ninth-inning comeback for the Twins, my heart ached for the Royals a bit. This isn't to say I wasn't ecstatic about the amazing comeback I had just witnessed from my team -- I was. But man, that is hard for the Royals. Already riding a nine-game losing streak, they get a great start from Zack Greinke, finally get a few big hits from their anemic offense, and come within one strike of a five-run victory. Then, it all fell apart.

With the Twins trailing 8-3 with two outs in the ninth, Mike Lamb ripped an RBI single to left field to score Jason Kubel. Then Brendan Harris kept the inning going with a single of his own. Carlos Gomez came up and bounced a seeing-eye single into center field, scoring Lamb. This brought Monroe to the plate representing the tying run. It was one of those moments where a fan thinks to himself/herself, "It'd be so awesome if he hit a home run right here... but what are the chances of THAT happening." Amazingly enough, it did happen. Monroe pieced together a solid at-bat and ended it by lining a low fastball over the left-field fence. One inning later, Justin Morneau ripped a solo shot to right, which proved to be the game-winner once Joe Nathan slammed the door for his 14th save. It was perhaps the most improbable comeback I have ever personally witnessed.

Obviously, it ended up being nice to have Monroe available as a pinch-hitter last night, but I'm still totally confounded that he wasn't in the starting lineup to begin with. By almost any measure, he was a smarter play than Delmon Young in left field. Young was on a terrible cold streak, having gone 2-for-22 (.091) over his last six games and coming off a night in which he went 0-for-6 and misplayed a double into a game-tying inside-the-park homer. Beyond that, he was 0-for-2 with two strikeouts lifetime against Royals starter Greinke, whereas Monroe was .389/.400/.889 with two homers in 20 plate appearances. I don't put a whole lot of stock into past performances against pitchers, especially with sample sizes like those, but I know Gardy does... or at least he claims to. There was just no reason to start Young last night other than to extend a superficial streak. Young walked twice in the game, but went 0-for-3 and committed a pair of costly errors in the fourth inning. He really seems to be in a bad place mentally right now, and I have to believe that a day off would be beneficial. How much longer can Gardenhire continue to pencil him in every night?

One other item. For those who were complaining about Gardenhire's decision to pull Nathan out of Tuesday night's game after just 10 pitches while Royals closer Joakin Soria pitched two full innings, last night's game should serve as a great vindicator for Gardy. Soria was unavailable to stop the bleeding as the Royals bullpen blew a huge lead in the ninth, while Nathan was able to come in and protect the Twins' one-run lead in the tenth. Just something to think about.

Poz on Gardy

Hey all. Sorry for the lack of a new entry today, but I do want to direct everyone over to the blog of Joe Posnanski, Kansas City Star columnist and perhaps my favorite blogger in the country. In today's post, he writes extensively about Ron Gardenhire, whom he dubs the game's best manager. I think a few of his points are muddled from not being able to watch the team regularly (one of his main qualifications for a great manager is that "they don’t make a lot of nonsensical moves based on hunches or small sample sizes," which we all know that Gardy is routinely guilty of), but there are a lot of interesting thoughts here and I always enjoy reading the in-depth perspective of an intelligent outsider when it comes to Twins-related subjects.

By the way, if you're not already reading Posnanski's blog on a daily basis, bookmark it. I promise you will not be disappointed.

Juggling the Rotation

Changes are coming for the Twins rotation. Scott Baker pitched in extended spring training yesterday and is scheduled to do so again on Saturday. If all goes well, he will return to Minnesota and the Twins will get back their best starter.

Of course, this means that someone will have to move out of the rotation to make room for Baker. Glen Perkins was initially called up as a temporary fill-in while Baker rehabbed, but with the way he's pitching, there's no way he's going anywhere. After earning his second win in the Twins' 6-1 victory over the Tigers on Sunday, Perkins now sports a 2.77 ERA in four starts. He has issued only four walks over 26 innings, which may be the most impressive aspect of his stint with the Twins considering his history. Perkins strikes me as a guy who perhaps dials up his performance based on the level of competition; his numbers in the high minors were never overwhelming, but he holds a 2.83 ERA over 60 1/3 big-league innings. As long as he can remain focused and aggressive, I see no reason why he can't continue to be successful with the Twins.

With Perkins performing well and Livan Hernandez and Nick Blackburn holding their own, Boof Bonser looks like the odd man out. Bonser has gotten poor results in the month of May, and while I don't necessarily think a string of four bad starts warrants a demotion (particularly when the peripheral numbers suggest that Bonser hasn't even pitched all that poorly for the most part), I would have no qualms with seeing him moved out of the rotation at this point since the Twins need Baker and everyone else has earned the right to stay.

Bonser is out of options, so he won't be heading to Rochester. The most likely scenario is that he moves to the bullpen when Baker returns. Pitching in shorter stints might help Bonser rebuild his confidence, although considering the first-inning struggles he has experienced at times this season, it could be that he needs to get into a groove, in which case pitching in relief may not be the best thing for him. Either way, it seems inevitable. Even though Joe Christensen wrote yesterday that Bonser's start against the Yankees on Friday "might be his last chance to keep his rotation spot," I believe the writing is already on the wall. Unless something changes dramatically over the course of the next week, I think we'll see Bonser in the bullpen quite soon. And as much as I've defended Bonser, I don't necessarily think that's the wrong choice at this point in time.

Patience Pays Off

With the exception of Saturday night's abomination of a game, the Twins have generally scored runs and play good, competitive baseball over the past two series. In watching the games, there's one obvious trend that I've been noticing -- the hitters are taking significantly better at-bats. This has resulted in a marked increase in walks. Twins hitters drew seven walks in yesterday's win over the Tigers, nine on Friday night, seven on Thursday, five on Tuesday and seven on Monday. The walks are putting more runners on base and allowing the offense to rely less on unsustainable numbers with runners in scoring position to score runs. As a result, the Twins scored at least six runs in all five of the aforementioned games.

Throughout the month of April, this offense was frustrating to watch largely because they consistently helped out opposing pitchers with poor at-bats and easy outs. We're seeing less and less of that now. Carlos Gomez, Jason Kubel, Mike Lamb and Delmon Young have all visibly improved their approaches at the plate. Joe Mauer continues to display one of the most selective eyes in the league. Justin Morneau is having good at-bats and drawing walks at a solid clip. Suddenly, this offense isn't as ridiculously impatient as it was early in the year, and as a result they have climbed out from last place in the AL in the walks category, having surpassed the Royals and Angels, and they're right on the heels of the Mariners. After posting just a .305 on-base percentage an April, Twins hitters are reaching base at a .339 clip in May.

You know what they say... good things come to those who wait.

Thursday Bloody Thursday

In the comments section yesterday, a reader implied that Ron Gardenhire doesn't even bother trying to win on Thursdays. I'm sure that's not true, but alas, after their 8-7 loss in 10 innings to complete a split with the Rangers yesterday afternoon, the Twins are 0-6 on Thursdays this season. This is an indication that the team seems to be packing it in on the final games of series. In part this may have something to do with the players being tired or worn out on these afternoon finales, but Gardenhire's puzzling getaway day lineups probably aren't helping matters.

In some respects, it's understandable that Gardenhire isn't able to put a maximized lineup on the field on Thursday afternoons. For instance, he generally likes to give Joe Mauer a break when the team plays a day game after a night game. That takes perhaps the best hitter out of the lineup, but it's perfectly a perfectly understandable and defensible rationale.

What's not defensible is yesterday's decision to have Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Craig Monroe all in the starting lineup while Jason Kubel sat on the bench. Cuddyer's awful performance thus far was rewarded with a promotion to the No. 3 spot in the lineup, while Young and Monroe batted fifth and sixth. Young's bat has heated up lately, so his presence in the middle of the lineup made some sense, but Cuddyer was hitting .217/.268/.313 on the season and Monroe had collected one hit in his past 18 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Kubel has been taking significantly better at-bats as of late, and that has been reflected in his numbers (1200 OPS, 4 BB/2 K in his past eight games). On top of all that, left-handed hitters had a 200-point advantage over right-handed hitters against the Rangers' starter, Vicente Padilla. For a manager who claims to base his lineup decisions on who matches up well and who's swinging the hot bat, Gardenhire's decision to keep leave Kubel out of the starting lineup yesterday seems counterintuitive. Without a doubt, Kubel should have been starting over one of those three players.

Cuddyer actually had a good game, going 2-for-4 with two singles and a pair of walks. Meanwhile, Young and Monroe combined to go 0-for-9 with four strikeouts. It was a particularly bad game for Young, who hit into a pair of rally-killing double plays on the way to stranding seven runners in an 0-for-5 effort. Livan Hernandez didn't pitch particularly well and there were some misplays in the field, but if you want to find an individual culprit in yesterday's loss, look no further than Young. He absolutely killed this offense. It's the type of performance that would normally get a young hitter benched for a game to straighten things out, but for whatever reason Young has earned the honor of being automatically written in as the left fielder each day, so we know that's not going to happen.

Lineup construction should only get more confusing for Gardenhire after yesterday's news that Adam Everett is headed back to the disabled list. This isn't necessarily bad news, since Everett has been essentially worthless so far this season. If he was playing the type of exceptional defense that gained him a reputation in Houston, he'd be a fairly valuable player on this team despite his awful hitting, because the rest of the infield has been very shaky defensively. Unfortunately, his shoulder problems have prevented him from being anything more than a mediocre defensive shortstop at best, so his value has been negated and he's basically been Juan Castro. I'd like to see Everett come back strong, but whatever is bothering his shoulder does not seem to be going away, so I'm at the point where I've pretty much given up on him being of any use to this team.

Replacing him on the roster will be Matt Macri, who I initially predicted to make the team out of spring training. This selection is interesting for a few reasons. For one thing, there's little chance that Macri will give the team any help defensively; he had committed a team-high eight errors over 29 games in Rochester. Ron Gardenhire is clearly fed up with this team's infield defense, evident in the fact that Brendan Harris has been moved away from second base due to his inability to consistently turn the double play from that position (Harris did turn three double plays from the shortstop position yesterday, so maybe Gardy is on to something). I wonder how Gardenhire will respond if Macri comes up and keeps committing the kind of mistakes that have haunted him in Rochester. As it stands, the inexperienced and clumsy Alexi Casilla would seem to be the best defensive infielder on the roster. It feels odd to say it, but this team really needs to get Nick Punto back.

The other reason Macri's promotion is interesting is because his numbers this year are significantly inferior to Brian Buscher, who has an 896 OPS with six homers and 20 RBI in 35 games for the Red Wings. There's probably not a whole lot of difference between the two defensively (although Macri is more of a natural second baseman, which may have played a role), so my guess is that Macri got the call because he's a right-handed bat who can spell Mike Lamb at third base against southpaws.

Infield defense has been extremely problematic for the Twins this year, and replacing Everett with Macri doesn't help them much in that respect. There could be many more ugly Thursdays to come.

State of the Offense

After ranking near the bottom of the league in runs scored last year, the Twins front office took major steps to improve the club's offensive output in the 2008 season. The overhauled Opening Day lineup featured five new faces, some of whom were youngsters with loads of potential while others were veterans with established track records. The improvements provided by these added players, along with full healthy seasons from the likes of Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, would seemingly render the Twins a lock to exceed their run production from a year ago.

Little has gone right for this offense so far. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are having successful seasons, but the rest of the lineup is littered with disappointment. Brendan Harris' weak numbers, along with his defensive inadequacy, have pushed the manager to the end of his wit. Adam Everett has been even worse than his paltry career numbers had suggested he would be. Jason Kubel has flashed power, but has displayed a poor plate approach on his way to a .289 on-base percentage. Carlos Gomez has been a strikeout machine. Delmon Young, who was brought in to provide a power jolt in the absence of Torii Hunter, has watched his slugging percentage dance around .300 for much of the season. Mike Lamb has belied his successful track record by putting up a hitting line that would make Nick Punto proud. The Twins have averaged 4.47 runs per game -- barely an upgrade from their 4.43 average last year.

Yet, mixed in with all these negatives are some burgeoning reasons for optimism. The Twins offense got off to a truly abysmal start, averaging just 3.8 runs per game in April while getting disappointing performances nearly across the board from their hitters. Thanks to some solid pitching and a good bit of luck, the Twins were able to hang around .500 despite the offensive struggles, and much improvement was expected from this lineup in the month of May. We've been seeing some of that.

After hitting just .260/.305/.362 as a team in the month of April, the Twins entered last night's contest with a .272/.333/.407 hitting line for the month of May, good for an 80-point increase in OPS. Finally some players are finding themselves at the plate. Jason Kubel has gone 8-for-20 with four extra-base hits, four walks and two strikeouts over his past eight games. Delmon Young has ripped three doubles and three triples in his last six games after managing just four extra-base hits in his first 40 games. The offense as a whole has averaged 5.3 runs per game in May and has avoided any shutouts after being blanked four times in April. This is the improved offense we'd been expecting.

Another thing that's worth noting is that while -- as I noted above -- the Twins aren't necessarily scoring much more than they did last year, this isn't such a bad thing when looked at in context. The Twins' average of 4.43 runs per game last year ranked them 12th out of 14 AL teams; and while the 4.47 runs they've averaged this year doesn't seem like much of an upgrade, it actually ranks them seventh in the AL thanks to a league-wide decrease in scoring.

So, along with what I imagine will ultimately be a middle-of-the-road pitching staff, it looks like we've got a pretty average offense on our hands here. That's nothing to brag about, but it is a significant upgrade over last year. An average offense and an average pitching staff, combined with a few lucky breaks, could make the Twins a contending team, particularly if the Central division's mediocrity holds up.

State of the Pitching Staff

With 45 games in the books, we're now more than a quarter of the way through the 2008 season, so it seems like a good time to step back and look at how the team is doing as a whole. Today I'll run down the pitching staff, and tomorrow I'll dissect the offense.

The Twins rotation took some major hits in the offseason with the losses of Johan Santana, Matt Garza and Carlos Silva. Yet, with solid youngsters available to fill the gaps left behind by these valuable starters along with a bullpen that remained almost totally intact, the Twins still were deemed by many to have at least an average staff overall. Thus far, they've essentially lived up to that billing, having entered last night's game with a 4.11 team ERA that ranked them seventh in the American League and 13th in the majors.

The rotation has not been a real strength thus far -- Twins starters have combined for a 4.61 ERA to rank 12th among 14 AL clubs. I'd say that this unit is due for some improvement, since Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey -- arguably the team's two best starters -- have both been nagged by injuries and haven't been able to settle in. Also, as I mentioned on Friday, Boof Bonser's ERA has been inflated due to some bad luck and is likely to start coming down. I think it's reasonable to expect that Nick Blackburn can hang with an ERA in the low 4's, and while Livan Hernandez is probably due for a few rocky starts, I think it's safe to say he's not nearly in as far over head as Ramon Ortiz was last April.

I suspect Slowey and Bonser will both hit a groove and start rattling off some solid starts, so once the Twins get back Baker (who is, in my mind, the closest thing to an ace on this roster when healthy), I think the Twins will sport a pretty good rotation with an ERA that should gravitate back toward the middle of the pack. The emergence of Glen Perkins as a strong option only adds to this team's impressive starting pitching depth. (Two walks in 16 1/3 IP? Wha?!) Plus, if the team experiences any further injuries or any of the current starters spin out of control, it seems that Francisco Liriano is making some real progress down in Rochester. After allowing just three runs and one walk over eight efficient innings last Thursday, Liriano tossed seven innings of two-run ball against Syracuse yesterday, issuing just one walk while throwing 62 of his 91 pitches for strikes. He managed only three strikeouts and allowed eight hits (all singles), but the fact that he's getting the ball in the zone and avoiding long, drawn-out innings is extremely encouraging.

The bullpen picture isn't quite as promising, but still not terribly alarming. The Twins bullpen entered last night's game with a 3.18 ERA to rank first in the AL and third in the majors. This success has been due in large part to 18 stellar innings from Joe Nathan, along with reliable work from Matt Guerrier and Dennys Reyes. Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain have been frustrating to watch at times thanks to their shaky control (the two have combined for 22 walks in 33 innings), but thus far they've managed to limit hits and runs while posting decent strikeout rates, so the earned run averages haven't been bad (3.63 for Rincon; 4.02 for Crain). Bobby Korecky has certainly held his own thus far, and of course had a huge outing on Monday night which will hopefully allow him to build some confidence going forward.

It's great to see the bullpen so successful up to this point, but you have to wonder how long they can continue at this rate. If Rincon and Crain don't both significantly improve their control, it's only a matter of time before these walks start to haunt them. We've seen over the past few series how much it hurts to not have Pat Neshek in the equation -- Ron Gardenhire is forced to go to unreliable relievers in key situations, and to use Reyes against right-handed hitters (who have been quite successful against him thus far).

If the Twins end up finding themselves in need of bullpen help, there aren't any Nesheks sitting in the minors who look like sure things to come up and dominate immediately. Yet, there are a few guys down in Rochester with the potential to step in and contribute. I mentioned Tim Lahey yesterday as a sizable right-hander who is racking up impressive strikeout totals out of the Red Wings bullpen. Another right-hander who could be called upon is Julio DePaula, a 25-year-old who struggled during his stint with the Twins last year but has posted a 3.42 ERA while holding Triple-A hitters a .198 batting average this season (then again, he's also issued 17 walks in 26 innings, so he might not be the control upgrade the Twins are looking for over Rincon and Crain). Left-handers Mariano Gomez and Ricky Barrett have both pitched well for Rochester, and both have had some success against right-handers, so either one could serve as a potential option.

The loss of Neshek leaves the Twins short on dominating relievers, and I doubt we'll see this unit rank at the top of the league for too much longer, but between the major-league and Triple-A rosters, there is a wide assortment of serviceable arms. The bullpen should be just fine.

Overall, the Twins pitching staff ranks right in the middle of the league and my guess is that they'll hang there for much of the season. If a few things shake out right and the staff can mostly avoid further injuries, there's a decent chance we'll see this unit ranked solidly in the top half of the AL by the halfway point in the season. That might be enough to keep the Twins near the top of the AL Central, but these pitchers will need some help from the offense in order for that to happen. More on that tomorrow.

Tuesday Notes

When I saw "CF" next to Michael Cuddyer's name in the starting lineup, I got the feeling that last night's game was going to be a strange one. I didn't know the half of it.

Bobby Korecky, who was heroic on the mound, was forced to hit in extra innings. More surprisingly, he got a hit in his only at-bat . Alexi Casilla ripped a three-run homer. Delmon Young ripped a legitimate extra-base hit -- a liner to the gap for a triple. Carlos Gomez batted twice with a bum wrist, and ended up scoring the winning run.

I'm still trying to grasp everything that happened in the wild 12-inning 7-6 Twins victory. For now, here are a few random notes:

* I said in yesterday's post that "Michael Cuddyer is quietly having an awful season." It's becoming less quiet. Last night he went 0-for-6 and stranded nine baserunners. I've never been a big Cuddyer supporter, but even I never thought he'd be hitting .226/.281/.321 on May 20. With Jason Kubel heating up at the plate (7-for-14 with 2 BB and 1 K over his last six games), Ron Gardenhire should give some serious consideration to sitting Cuddyer against right-handed pitchers on occasion until he gets his head straight.

* The loss of Pat Neshek has left the Twins weak in the bullpen, a problem which was on display in Colorado this past weekend and at times last night. Jesse Crain and Juan Rincon have both had major control issues. Dennys Reyes has been solid in short outings this season, but he's been far from dominant (3 K in his last 9.1 IP). Brian Bass has been relatively effective, but he remains a long reliever who is out of his element in high-pressure situations. This leaves Joe Nathan and Matt Guerrier as the only reliable late-inning options, a problem that the Twins may soon attempt to remedy by reaching into the minors.

It seems the Twins may be grooming Danny Graves for such an experiment. The team signed the 34-year-old former major-league closer to a minor-league deal a few weeks ago, and he has since posted a 1.00 ERA while allowing only eight hits and no walks over nine innings in Class-AAA Rochester. On the exterior, Graves seems like a perfectly logical option, given that he's a veteran with plenty of experience in high-pressure late-game situations who has racked up 182 saves over the span of 11 major-league seasons. Yet, Graves is far from a dominator. He averaged only 4.78 strikeouts per nine innings (about one every two innings) during his big-league career, and in his nine innings in Rochester this year he has fanned just two batters. Graves also has not pitched in the major leagues since 2006. It's possible that he could step in and be a factor in the Twins bullpen, but don't let the recognizable name or gaudy save total fool you into believing he's something that he's not.

One minor-league reliever who does intrigue me is Tim Lahey, the 26-year-old right-hander who's been closing games for Rochester since Korecky's promotion. Lahey's 3.94 ERA isn't as impressive as that of Graves, but he has displayed an impressive ability to hit the zone and miss bats, with 22 strikeouts and just one walk over 16 innings. The Rays liked him enough to make him the No. 1 pick in last December's Rule 5 draft, and he was shuttled to the Cubs and Phillies before finally ending up back with the Twins. Clearly, teams are seeing something in Lahey that intrigues them.

Lahey is certainly old for a prospect and his minor-league track record is hardly overwhelming, but as a college product who didn't begin playing pro ball until he was 23, it's entirely possible that he could arise as a late bloomer.

* Francisco Liriano had his most encouraging start of the season for Rochester last Thursday, pitching eight efficient innings while allowing three runs and -- most importantly -- only one walk. A game story from the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle described Liriano's outing as "eight always-in-control innings" and noted that his fastball was consistently hitting 90-91 mph after rarely topping the upper 80s in his earlier stint with the Twins. "I'm very close," Liriano told the D&C. "Everything is coming back together. I'm not too far away."

He'll have a chance to back up those words when he makes his next scheduled start against Syracuse today.

A Downer in Denver

After rattling off five straight wins at home against the White Sox and Tigers a couple weeks ago, the Twins went to Chicago and lost a series against the White Sox. They then came back home and took three of four from the Red Sox before being swept out of Minnesota by the Blue Jays. In the wake of that painful series, the Twins headed to Colorado where they dropped two of three in a series that concluded yesterday with a 6-2 loss in which they committed numerous mental mistakes and repeatedly stranded runners in scoring position.

Mediocre teams tend to have a lot of ups and downs, and I think at this point we can fairly say that the Twins are a mediocre team. They have enough talent to win if they're getting timely hitting and displaying solid fundamentals, but as we've seen during the past two series, they simply won't win if those things are lacking.

It would seem that a positive to come out of this series would be a power surge from Delmon Young, but it certainly strikes me as an instance where the stats can be misleading. Young went 7-for-12 with three doubles and a triple in the series, raising his batting average by 24 points and his slugging percentage by 48 points. Yet, while it's good to see Young getting hits, the extra-base hits were hardly a convincing display of increased power. His two doubles on Friday night were both hard-hit grounders down the line, as was his triple in yesterday's game. The double yesterday came on a bloop to right that just fell fair, and Young barely made it into second safely (in fact, it appeared that he was thrown out). So while Young's four extra-base hits in this series did match his season total prior, I'm not going to start getting truly excited until he begins lifting the ball up and hitting some line drives.

The Twins could really use a legitimate power increase from Young, because as it stands, this lineup is devoid of solid right-handed sticks. Michael Cuddyer is quietly having an awful season (.240/.296/.340 with 1 HR), Craig Monroe has one hit in his last 16 at-bats, and as much as it seems like Brendan Harris has provided an offensive upgrade at second base, his 668 OPS is not all that much better than the 640 OPS they got from the position last season.

Today the Twins open a four-game set against a hot Rangers team at the Metrodome. They'll need to get the sticks going in order to win this series.

Hardly a Breakout Night

Delmon Young picked up his first extra-base hit since April 22 in last night's 4-2 win over the Rockies. He had two of them, in fact, as he doubled twice in a 3-for-4 effort. That's not to say the left fielder's night was all that encouraging.

Young's biggest problem this year has been an inability to get the ball up off the ground, as his ground ball percentage of 62.7 ranks him second in the AL behind Julio Lugo. Despite the three-hit game last night, this issue persisted. His first hit was a dribbler to second base which he beat out for a single, while his doubles were both hard hit grounders down the baselines (one to left and one to right).

Some have mused that perhaps playing in the thin Colorado air will help Young finally hit his first home run, but I think he'd have to be playing on the moon to get any of these hits over the fence.

The Truth About Boof

I was going to spend today's post writing about a costly lack of fundamentals that caused the Twins to lose three straight games against the Blue Jays this week, thus putting a disappointing cap on a homestand that started out so promisingly. But instead, there's another topic I'd like to delve into. And that is Boof Bonser.

After his latest poor outing on Wednesday night, fans are turning on Bonser in droves. For whatever reason, it seems like much of the fan base has always had it in for Boof, and his latest three-game slump has brought complaints to a fever pitch. The Twins generally have a fairly intelligent and patient group of followers, so I have to say I'm a little surprised by what I view as an extremely unfair fan response to Bonser's struggles. Not only would a demotion to the bullpen or minors for Bonser be reactionary and unwarranted, it would be downright stupid.

Bonser's last three starts have been ugly, there's no doubt about it. During that span, he has allowed 16 earned runs over 16 innings for a 9.00 ERA. Yet, it seems to me that the fans who are complaining loudly about Bonser's performance this year are either plagued by short-term memory or are actively choosing to ignore the good things he's done. Over his first six outings of the season, Bonser tossed five Quality Starts, though he gained only two wins thanks to some lousy run support. Bonser finished the month of April with an ERA under 4.

Even with his past three starts taken into account, Bonser's numbers for the season really aren't that bad when you take a deeper look. Yes, he is 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA, but his case illustrates a perfect example of why win/loss record and ERA are not the most telling measures of a pitcher's performance, in spite of the fact that they are the ones most often quoted in the media.

Let's compare the performances of Bonser and the team "ace" Livan Hernandez on the season. As I mentioned, Bonser has a 2-5 record and an ugly 5.37 ERA through nine starts, whereas Hernandez has surprised everyone by going 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA over the same number of starts. Looking at those numbers, one could easily conclude that Hernandez has been the better pitcher. But taking a look at some more intuitive statistics, we'll find that this isn't necessarily true:

	Bonser	Hernandez
IP	52	57.2
K/BB	33/15	21/11
HR Allowed	5	9
Opp. OPS	700	820
FIP	3.92	4.21
xFIP	4.48	4.59

Bonser and Hernandez have both gotten roughly two strikeouts for each walk, but opposing hitters have slugged just .390 against Bonser, as opposed to .485 against Hernandez. This is a big part of the reason that fielding-independent statistics like FIP and xFIP indicate that the two pitchers have been a whole lot closer in performance than their win-loss record or ERA will tell us.

Now, to be fair, I'll note that Bonser is likely to start giving up more home runs, because his current 7.8 percent home run/fly ball rate is unsustainably low (Hernandez's is 13.1), but it's also worth noting that Bonser is currently only inducing ground balls at a 38.4 percent rate after posting percentages of 45 and 41.7 in his first two seasons, so we can expect him to cut down on the fly balls to some degree. Meanwhile, Hernandez's current 42.7 percent ground ball rate is likely to come down given that he hasn't posted a GB% over 40 since 2004. Moreover, I suspect that Bonser's K-rate will rise at least a bit, while Hernandez isn't real likely to start missing any more bats with his 85-mph "heat."

All of this is a very long-winded way of saying that Bonser has not pitched as poorly as his numbers indicate, and that there's actually a pretty good argument that he has pitched at least as well as Hernandez. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not one of the people that swears by statistics like FIP and DIPS to the point where I blissfully ignore reality. Hernandez has allowed fewer runs and has helped the Twins win more games, and he deserves commendation for that. But there is plenty of reason to believe that the hefty Cuban is due for some decline while Bonser improves, so one month from now I think we could very easily be hearing the same cries of outrage directed at Hernandez. And I hope people will be counting their lucky stars that Bonser wasn't sent down to Rochester.

Slowey Slowly Getting There

Last night, Kevin Slowey struck out the side in the top half of the first and went on to cruise for a few innings before giving up a pair of RBI doubles with two outs in the fourth. Slowey recovered and pitched a 1-2-3 fifth, but in the sixth, after being worn down by a 15-pitch at-bat against Scott Rolen, he left a pitch out over the plate against Matt Stairs which was driven over the baggy in right field. That was the end of Slowey's night, his final line: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K.

Through three starts, Slowey sits with an 0-3 record and a 5.79 ERA. But, things aren't as bad as they seem. Opposing hitters are only batting .241 against him, and he has an 11-to-2 strikeout to walk ratio in 14 innings this season. Over three outings, his ERA has gone from 8.10 to 6.48 to 5.79. He has good peripherals and he's a good pitcher. The ERA will continue to come down.

One other note: after they both homered last night, Carlos Gomez and Jason Kubel have eight home runs between them. They also have eight walks between them. Sigh.

Ever-Growing Gomez

As a kid at the ballpark, I was always most fascinated by speedy players who could put the ball in play and fly down the first base line. I remember being very fond of Cristian Guzman in his early days, marveling his ability to beat out routine grounders to shortstop and fly around second base to turn a textbook double into an exhilarating triple.

As I've aged and learned more about the game of baseball, I've come to realize that players who are exciting and athletically gifted sometimes do not produce enough to actually be considered "good." Nevertheless, Carlos Gomez is a player that I've always gotten giddy about. From the moment his name began to pop up in Johan Santana trade rumors, I felt pings of excitement. Back in December when Mets GM Omar Minaya told the Associated Press that he felt he could be a player in the Santana Sweepstakes, I said that while most people would likely be skeptical of a Mets package that didn't include shortstop Jose Reyes, "I'm pretty high on outfield prospects Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez (especially Gomez)." In the comments section for that post, I mentioned that Twins fans "would love having [Gomez] here -- he's a lot of fun to watch."

As the offseason progressed, Gomez's inclusion in a package for Santana became more and more realistic. On Jan. 10, Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune wrote an article mentioning that the Mets had offered Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey for Santana (a fine piece of reporting by Christensen to nail the exact package nearly three weeks in advance of the actual trade). In analyzing the proposed package, I had the following to say about Gomez:

I'm higher on Gomez than most and I like his chances to turn into a Jose Reyes type player. At 22, he's one of the fastest players in all of baseball, which makes him a very exciting player to watch, and I believe he'll build on his patience and power, both of which are fairly meager at this point. The lack of plate discipline is particularly alarming, as he'll never be able to put his blazing speed to good use unless he can get on base at a decent rate, but he is young and raw.

When Bill Smith pulled the trigger on a trade that sent Santana to the Mets for the aforementioned package, I was a bit underwhelmed with the overall return for baseball's best pitcher. Nevertheless, I was clearly glad to see Gomez's name included in the deal.

Through the first 37 games of the 2008 season, the experience of watching a 22-year-old Gomez start regularly has been everything I'd expected it to be: exciting, frustrating, humorous, torturous. He has struck out more than seven times as often as he's walked, his .299 on-base percentage is brutally inadequate for a lead-off hitter, and he's had some line drives eat him up in center field while also air-mailing numerous throws to the infield. Yet, at the same time, Gomez is tied with Justin Morneau for the team lead in extra-base hits, he is tied for the American League lead in stolen bases, and he's displayed terrific range in center field while making several Web Gem catches.

Since being benched for a day after striking out four times in an 0-for-5 effort against Oakland on April 22, Gomez has batted .333/.382/.529 with 12 runs scored and eight RBI in 12 games. The strikeout-to-walk ratio during that span (11-to-3) was still far from desirable, but Gomez has shown some improvement.

I've bristled in the past when people have suggested that Gomez should be sent down to the minors. In part that is because I feel there's no logical basis for that argument, but a part of it is also that I truly enjoy watching the kid play. Even beyond his exciting style of play, there are a lot of little things to like about Gomez, from his exaggerated throwing motion to his humorous accent; from his lighthearted cockiness to the way he grabs and steadies his helmet as he flies out of the batters box on a hit.

Gomez is a project, and he's certainly far from a finished product. But his tools are on display on a nightly basis, and watching him play is something I look forward whenever I sit down to watch a Twins game. Putting aside the poor on-base skills, the botched bunt attempts and the numerous fundamental mistakes, Gomez is a tremendously gifted athlete with a lot of upside, and watching him play brings me back to a time when the game seemed a whole lot more simple. And maybe a little more fun.

A Wild Weekend

Perhaps the best part about the Twins series with the Red Sox this weekend is that it isn't over yet.

These have just been some fun games to watch. On Friday night, the two teams battled all night long, but eventually it appeared that Boston would come out on top when they sent their dominating closer out to protect a one-run lead in the ninth. The Twins spoiled Jon Papelbon's save though, putting runners on second and third and then getting a game-winning hit from the most unlikely of suspects, Mike Lamb. (Lamb carried some momentum into the next two games, going 4-for-7 on Saturday and Sunday.) On Saturday, the Twins got six great innings from Glen Perkins, who was making his first major-league start, but he surrendered a pair of homers to start the seventh and those ended up sealing a loss for him and the team. On Sunday, the Twins jumped out early against Tim Wakefield, but the Red Sox and their punishing offense kept coming back and wouldn't let the Twins get comfortable. In the ninth inning, it looked like Boston might get some payback for Friday night by coming back against Joe Nathan, but the Twins closer ended up working out of a jam and shutting the door on a 9-8 Twins victory.

I truly think that the Red Sox are the class of the American League. Prior to the season, I bet a friend 10 dollars that they'd be in the World Series. (Granted, that's not exactly a lot of money, but he didn't give me any odds.) Their roster is basically intact after winning the World Series last year, and they've certainly played like champions thus far, with a 24-15 record entering yesterday's contest. The fact that the Twins have played relatively evenly with this Boston club over the first three games of this series is impressive to me.

I've been thoroughly entertained with this series up to this point. Tonight's 6 o'clock match-up pits the veteran Livan Hernandez against the young gunner Clay Buchholz. Hopefully this game can prove to be a fitting finale for this crazy series.