It's been a rough month of July thus far for Matt Capps.
On Saturday night, the right-hander entered to protect a three-run lead against Milwaukee in the ninth, only to yield four runs on five hits while recording two outs, giving away the remnants of what was once a seven-run edge.
The following day, he came on with a two-run lead, but gave up two quick hits while recording only one out and was replaced with Glen Perkins, who closed out the win.
Last night, Capps came on in a 3-1 ballgame, immediately surrendered a home run, then surrounded two outs with a hit and a walk before once again being pulled in favor of Perkins, who once again finished the job.
That's three consecutive multi-run leads that Capps has been unable to close out. Not exactly what you're looking for in a closer, especially when your offensively challenged club needs to play .630 ball the rest of the way in order to have a realistic shot at the postseason.
Ron Gardenhire is publicly maintaining that Capps is still the Twins' closer, but there's no doubt that his confidence has waned. Gardy's given the righty an uncharacteristically short leash over his past two outings (for which the manager deserves a lot of credit), and Capps hadn't been particularly effective prior to this month, converting only 13 of 18 save chances.
At this point, fans are calling for Capps' head (I think I learned some new cuss words sitting out by the bullpen at Target Field last night) but the reality is that he's a good -- not great -- reliever that's going through a slump. It's sort of similar, in fact, to the skid that struck Jon Rauch in July of last year, prompting the Twins to trade for Capps in the first place.
Since that swap, Capps has gone 29-for-37 in save opportunities. That 78 percent conversion rate is decidedly mediocre and is actually exactly the same as Rauch's rate over the past two years with Minnesota and Toronto. Similar results for similarly good-but-not-great relief pitchers.
What many said at the time has now been unequivocally proven: there was no mystical quality to Capps' "closing experience," for which the enamored Twins gave up their top catching prospect at the deadline last year and overpaid wildly in arbitration this year. They got suckered.
But there's no use in beating a dead horse. Right now I can only hope that the Twins' decision-makers have learned their lesson, and that they're prepared to swallow their pride and get somebody in the ninth inning who can throw the ball past a hitter once in a while.
It's not his last three outings that have made it obvious Capps is a bad fit in the closer role. It's his 5.3 K/9IP rate on the season. Consistent success is almost unachievable for a reliever allowing that much contact.
Showing posts with label gardenhire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gardenhire. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 06, 2011
Thursday, June 09, 2011
"Just Leave Delmon Alone"
All season long, Delmon Young has been costing the Twins runs with his bat and with his glove. As we enter the middle of June, the outfielder is batting .219/.250/.271 and has fewer extra-base hits than Drew Butera. His defense in left field has been reprehensible, as another muffed play that reeked of poor effort led to the decisive run in Tuesday night's loss.
Yet, for some reason, Ron Gardenhire has been hugely reluctant to mess with Young's routine in any way. The manager's decision to use noodle-armed Ben Revere in right field while sticking with Young in left prior to Denard Span's injury flew in the face of sheer logic, but Gardy provided the following rationalization:
Nope.
If Young had a long track record of success, or was showing gradual improvement, or even if he was considered a staple in the clubhouse, I might understand the manager's tact. None of these things are true. Why is he being coddled while Trevor Plouffe is being demoted after making bad throws and Danny Valencia is being benched for multiple games when his bat goes cold?
This doesn't qualify as a season-opening slump anymore. We're coming up on the halfway point in the season and Young's OPS continues to hover around .500, which is staggeringly bad for a plodding corner outfielder.
Gardenhire needs to start worrying less about disrupting the rhythm of a player who is currently amidst the worst slump of his entire career, and more about the overall well-being of this Twins team, which is trying desperately to scrape its way back into contention.
If Young has so much on his mind, perhaps some time off from playing (or, as I've suggested, a change of scenery) would be the best course of action. Leaving Delmon alone has done a lot more harm than good.
Yet, for some reason, Ron Gardenhire has been hugely reluctant to mess with Young's routine in any way. The manager's decision to use noodle-armed Ben Revere in right field while sticking with Young in left prior to Denard Span's injury flew in the face of sheer logic, but Gardy provided the following rationalization:
"Not to mess with Delmon more than anything else,'' Gardenhire said of his reason for leaving Young in left. "He's got his hands full in left, so we'll keep him working out there and not trying to mess with his mind any more. We're trying to get him hitting. I think if you start switching him in the outfield, he's got something else he's got to worry about. So just leave Delmon alone."OK, so what about using Young at designated hitter, so he can focus completely on hitting and stop sabotaging the team's pitchers?
Nope.
"Delmon's not really too excited about DH-ing," Gardenhire said. "He's been working really hard in the outfield, trying to get better. He feels a lot more comfortable playing, and I respect that."Despite the fact that he's literally been one of the worst players in all of baseball this year, Young continues to not only start every day, but hit fifth in the lineup and dictate where he plays in the field.
If Young had a long track record of success, or was showing gradual improvement, or even if he was considered a staple in the clubhouse, I might understand the manager's tact. None of these things are true. Why is he being coddled while Trevor Plouffe is being demoted after making bad throws and Danny Valencia is being benched for multiple games when his bat goes cold?
This doesn't qualify as a season-opening slump anymore. We're coming up on the halfway point in the season and Young's OPS continues to hover around .500, which is staggeringly bad for a plodding corner outfielder.
Gardenhire needs to start worrying less about disrupting the rhythm of a player who is currently amidst the worst slump of his entire career, and more about the overall well-being of this Twins team, which is trying desperately to scrape its way back into contention.
If Young has so much on his mind, perhaps some time off from playing (or, as I've suggested, a change of scenery) would be the best course of action. Leaving Delmon alone has done a lot more harm than good.
Thursday, March 03, 2011
Done Deal
Ron Gardenhire made it official yesterday: Brian Duensing is a starter.
Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano have to be considered rotation locks, but it seemed as though the manager might use spring training performance to determine which of the remaining four would be awarded starting jobs.
Not so for Duensing. Apparently, in Gardenhire's mind, the left-hander earned the billing through his performance last year, when he went 7-2 with a 3.08 ERA after joining the rotation in July.
That performance, combined with his excellent work after stepping into the rotation late in the 2009 season, has convinced many people -- including Gardy -- that Duensing is the team's third-best starter. And, looking only at his ERA and win/loss record from the past two years, that certainly seems to be the case.
Unfortunately, for anyone looking past those categories, it's tough to see him sustaining the kind of success he had last year in a starting role. Duensing doesn't have the stuff to throw past hitters -- evidenced by his 5.5 career K/9 rate -- and as his .275 BABIP from last year inevitably begins to normalize his other numbers will see regression, perhaps drastically so. It seemed as though his luck started to catch up with him late in the season, when he gave up 19 runs on 35 hits in 27 innings over his final five starts, including a playoff dud against the Yankees (though one could make the case that he simply wore down).
To be sure, Duensing is a solid pitcher with admirable poise and there's no reason he can't be a fine back-of-the-rotation arm, but guaranteeing him a starting job also minimizes his greatest and most sustainable asset, which is domination of same-sided batters. Duensing held lefties to an anemic .162/.217/.239 hitting line last year, and showed similar proficiency against them in the previous season.
As a reliever, he would provide the Twins with an established commodity in a bullpen that lacks many. He'd be able to fully utilize his dominance against lefty swingers rather than facing starting lineups stacked with righties. And, should one of the five other starters get injured or fail to cut it, he'd be available to step into the rotation, as he's done successfully in each of the past two seasons.
Instead, assuming everyone stays healthy, the Twins will opt to either potentially weaken the bullpen by asking Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn to pitch in relief -- something none of them have experience doing -- or weaken their starting pitching depth by trading one of those three.
It's frustrating. Not so much that Gardenhire has reached a decision I disagree with, but more so that -- on March 3rd -- his mind is apparently already made up.
Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano have to be considered rotation locks, but it seemed as though the manager might use spring training performance to determine which of the remaining four would be awarded starting jobs.
Not so for Duensing. Apparently, in Gardenhire's mind, the left-hander earned the billing through his performance last year, when he went 7-2 with a 3.08 ERA after joining the rotation in July.
That performance, combined with his excellent work after stepping into the rotation late in the 2009 season, has convinced many people -- including Gardy -- that Duensing is the team's third-best starter. And, looking only at his ERA and win/loss record from the past two years, that certainly seems to be the case.
Unfortunately, for anyone looking past those categories, it's tough to see him sustaining the kind of success he had last year in a starting role. Duensing doesn't have the stuff to throw past hitters -- evidenced by his 5.5 career K/9 rate -- and as his .275 BABIP from last year inevitably begins to normalize his other numbers will see regression, perhaps drastically so. It seemed as though his luck started to catch up with him late in the season, when he gave up 19 runs on 35 hits in 27 innings over his final five starts, including a playoff dud against the Yankees (though one could make the case that he simply wore down).
To be sure, Duensing is a solid pitcher with admirable poise and there's no reason he can't be a fine back-of-the-rotation arm, but guaranteeing him a starting job also minimizes his greatest and most sustainable asset, which is domination of same-sided batters. Duensing held lefties to an anemic .162/.217/.239 hitting line last year, and showed similar proficiency against them in the previous season.
As a reliever, he would provide the Twins with an established commodity in a bullpen that lacks many. He'd be able to fully utilize his dominance against lefty swingers rather than facing starting lineups stacked with righties. And, should one of the five other starters get injured or fail to cut it, he'd be available to step into the rotation, as he's done successfully in each of the past two seasons.
Instead, assuming everyone stays healthy, the Twins will opt to either potentially weaken the bullpen by asking Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn to pitch in relief -- something none of them have experience doing -- or weaken their starting pitching depth by trading one of those three.
It's frustrating. Not so much that Gardenhire has reached a decision I disagree with, but more so that -- on March 3rd -- his mind is apparently already made up.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Protecting Mauer
Joe Mauer is the Twins' most valuable asset. I'm not breaking any ground with that statement; he's the proverbial "face of the franchise" and his salary consumes roughly 20 percent of the team's total payroll.
There's no question that when he's healthy, Mauer can be one of the league's biggest difference-makers. As such, it could be argued that the single most important priority for Ron Gardenhire this year is doing everything within his power to keep his star catcher free of injury.
That's no secret to Gardy. He has always made a point of resting Mauer at regular intervals throughout the season (for instance, when the team plays a day game following a night game).
Resting Mauer carries a price, though. Now that the Twins have traded away every other catcher in their organization with any semblance of offensive ability, they're left with Drew Butera as their sole backup option at the position. While I find Butera to be a likable player and easy to root for, it's not a stretch to say he might be the worst-hitting position player in the major leagues. He hit .197/.237/.296 last season, and considering his .214/.296/.317 career line in the minors, we should expect more of the same in the future.
The idea of taking Mauer out from the catcher position every fourth game or so was more palatable when his backup was Mike Redmond, a thoroughly competent offensive player, but when you sit Mauer in favor of Butera you're replacing one of the best bats in the league with one of the worst. Shifting Mauer to DH only means that you're replacing a quality bat like Jason Kubel or Jim Thome with Butera's meager stick.
The challenge for Gardenhire will be finding the right opportunities to rest Mauer while limiting the negative impacts of increased Butera dosages. Last year, Gardy's savvy handling of this issue may have had a significant impact on the team's fortunes.
Midway through the summer, Mauer was banged up. An array of ailments was taking a toll on his performance, and frustration came to a head when the reigning MVP elected to lay down a bunt in a vital late-game situation in July.
When the All-Star break rolled around, the Twins' season was seemingly hanging in the balance. They had sunk to third place and their best player just wasn't hitting. So Gardy took the opportunity to provide Mauer with some additional rest. In the five weeks following the break, Mauer caught only 19 of the Twins' 32 games, seeing an increased mix of DH duty and full days off. During that span, the Twins went 24-8, rising from 4.5 games out in the AL Central to 5 games up -- a commanding lead they'd never relinquish. It could be said that this was the defining stretch of their season.
The team's success during this span, with Mauer catching a little over half their games, can be attributed to a few different things, some not relating to the catcher position. Butera had maybe his best offensive stretch of the season, maintaining a .757 OPS over 14 games. Incidentally, it was also a relatively soft spot in the schedule, with 19 of the 32 games coming against the Indians, Royals, Orioles, Mariners and Athletics.
Most importantly, though, Mauer responded extremely well to the increased rest, hitting .442 with a 1.185 OPS.
It was an ingenious bit of strategy from the man who would go on to win Manager of the Year. Gardenhire recognized that his star player was lagging, noticed a lull in the schedule, and responded accordingly. Over the course of a full season, Gardy will have a hard time getting away with playing Butera at catcher more than 40 percent of the time, but during stretches like that one, the opportunity is ripe to rest up and rejuvenate Mauer.
It's a formula that Gardenhire would be wise to follow again this year. Mauer certainly will need his time off, as he's still experiencing issues with his surgically repaired left knee, but his resting pattern shouldn't be as simple as "every Thursday/Sunday afternoon and whenever Carl Pavano is pitching." The manager should seek to limit Butera's exposure against strong opponents as much as possible, and to react appropriately when Mauer seems to be especially tender.
Of course, this whole topic will likely reignite the debate over whether or not Mauer should at some point be moved away from the catcher position. For the long-term, that course of action is starting to seem more and more logical. He's had an extremely difficult time holding up over a full season at the game's most physically demanding position, and with $23 million owed to him annually over the next eight years that's becoming more and more tough to stomach.
Unfortunately, the front office traded away last year the one player in the organization with a decent chance at becoming an everyday big-league catcher. So unless a younger prospect can rise meteorically over the next couple seasons, Mauer's replacement would likely have to come from outside the organization.
There's no question that when he's healthy, Mauer can be one of the league's biggest difference-makers. As such, it could be argued that the single most important priority for Ron Gardenhire this year is doing everything within his power to keep his star catcher free of injury.
That's no secret to Gardy. He has always made a point of resting Mauer at regular intervals throughout the season (for instance, when the team plays a day game following a night game).
Resting Mauer carries a price, though. Now that the Twins have traded away every other catcher in their organization with any semblance of offensive ability, they're left with Drew Butera as their sole backup option at the position. While I find Butera to be a likable player and easy to root for, it's not a stretch to say he might be the worst-hitting position player in the major leagues. He hit .197/.237/.296 last season, and considering his .214/.296/.317 career line in the minors, we should expect more of the same in the future.
The idea of taking Mauer out from the catcher position every fourth game or so was more palatable when his backup was Mike Redmond, a thoroughly competent offensive player, but when you sit Mauer in favor of Butera you're replacing one of the best bats in the league with one of the worst. Shifting Mauer to DH only means that you're replacing a quality bat like Jason Kubel or Jim Thome with Butera's meager stick.
The challenge for Gardenhire will be finding the right opportunities to rest Mauer while limiting the negative impacts of increased Butera dosages. Last year, Gardy's savvy handling of this issue may have had a significant impact on the team's fortunes.
Midway through the summer, Mauer was banged up. An array of ailments was taking a toll on his performance, and frustration came to a head when the reigning MVP elected to lay down a bunt in a vital late-game situation in July.
When the All-Star break rolled around, the Twins' season was seemingly hanging in the balance. They had sunk to third place and their best player just wasn't hitting. So Gardy took the opportunity to provide Mauer with some additional rest. In the five weeks following the break, Mauer caught only 19 of the Twins' 32 games, seeing an increased mix of DH duty and full days off. During that span, the Twins went 24-8, rising from 4.5 games out in the AL Central to 5 games up -- a commanding lead they'd never relinquish. It could be said that this was the defining stretch of their season.
The team's success during this span, with Mauer catching a little over half their games, can be attributed to a few different things, some not relating to the catcher position. Butera had maybe his best offensive stretch of the season, maintaining a .757 OPS over 14 games. Incidentally, it was also a relatively soft spot in the schedule, with 19 of the 32 games coming against the Indians, Royals, Orioles, Mariners and Athletics.
Most importantly, though, Mauer responded extremely well to the increased rest, hitting .442 with a 1.185 OPS.
It was an ingenious bit of strategy from the man who would go on to win Manager of the Year. Gardenhire recognized that his star player was lagging, noticed a lull in the schedule, and responded accordingly. Over the course of a full season, Gardy will have a hard time getting away with playing Butera at catcher more than 40 percent of the time, but during stretches like that one, the opportunity is ripe to rest up and rejuvenate Mauer.
It's a formula that Gardenhire would be wise to follow again this year. Mauer certainly will need his time off, as he's still experiencing issues with his surgically repaired left knee, but his resting pattern shouldn't be as simple as "every Thursday/Sunday afternoon and whenever Carl Pavano is pitching." The manager should seek to limit Butera's exposure against strong opponents as much as possible, and to react appropriately when Mauer seems to be especially tender.
Of course, this whole topic will likely reignite the debate over whether or not Mauer should at some point be moved away from the catcher position. For the long-term, that course of action is starting to seem more and more logical. He's had an extremely difficult time holding up over a full season at the game's most physically demanding position, and with $23 million owed to him annually over the next eight years that's becoming more and more tough to stomach.
Unfortunately, the front office traded away last year the one player in the organization with a decent chance at becoming an everyday big-league catcher. So unless a younger prospect can rise meteorically over the next couple seasons, Mauer's replacement would likely have to come from outside the organization.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
No Longer a Bridesmaid
I think there are a lot of misconceptions about the impacts managers have on the outcomes of baseball games. I can't profess to know the intricacies of these impacts, but I am fairly certain that they are vastly overrated by the majority of people.
Managers make several decisions throughout the course of the a ball game. Of those decisions, only a small percentage reflect a unique philosophy held be that particular skipper. There are certain things I don't like about the way Ron Gardenhire tends to manage -- his deployment of "small ball" tactics, his over-reliance on veteran players, his strict adherence to traditional closer usage, to name a few.
These tendencies understandably frustrate fans, but what those fans don't seem to understand is that basically all managers across the league make the same types of decisions. Most people in Minnesota don't get the opportunity to watch opposing managers under the same type of microscope, so there's a "grass is always greener" mentality that can take hold. At least until you watch Ron Washington, leader of the AL Champs and second-place finisher in this year's Manager of the Year voting, allow his bullpen to implode repeatedly in the playoffs while his best reliever sat on the bench.
Usually it's been Gardenhire finding himself as the runner-up in baseball's annual award for the league's best manager. He finished second in the voting five times in his first eight years at Minnesota's helm. Yesterday, finally, Gardenhire was named American League Manager of the Year for the 2010 season.
I sometimes get painted as a Gardy devotee because I've written pieces defending him against criticism and highlighting his positives more frequently than just about any other person covering the team.
I wouldn't say that's an accurate depiction of my stance. I've criticized Gardenhire for plenty of his decisions in the past. He typifies the "old-school" approach to baseball that can often drive me nuts; wasting outs on sacrifice bunts, batting a middle infielder second in the lineup regardless of his competence, emphasizing hustle and the mystical trait known as scrappiness over pure talent (i.e. Nick Punto).
But, to me, it seems flat-out ignorant to sit here and say that those traits -- however annoying -- have been significant detractors from the team's overall success. Gardenhire is the first manager in league history to capture division titles in six of his first nine seasons. He's often done so while overseeing teams with huge payroll handicaps and lesser talent.
This year, for the first time, he could claim neither of those disadvantages. The Twins entered the 2010 season with monumentally high expectations thanks to an aggressive offseason and unprecedented fan interest. Those expectations were met in the regular season, undeniably. The Twins won 94 games, dominated their division and became the first team in all of baseball to clinch a playoff spot.
They did this despite a great deal of adversity. Joe Nathan, one of the league's best relievers, suffered a season-ending injury in spring training. Justin Morneau, one of the league's best hitters, had his season end in early July. Many other players battled through injuries that caused them to miss time and affected their on-field performance.
Through all of that, 94 wins.
This isn't a sport like basketball or football where the head coach and his staff develop a game plan, draw up plays and manage timeouts. Ultimately, games are won by hitters coming up with big hits, pitchers making good pitches and fielders catching the ball. I do believe that Gardenhire's tactical decisions sometimes hurt the team. But far more, I think he does things that help breed success.
Given his results, that's awfully hard to argue.
Yes, there's the brutal postseason track record. Scapegoating the manager for those struggles seems like an easy way out, though. If Gardenhire's management is so deeply flawed, why has he been so successful in the regular season? If he is responsible for his team "playing scared" when things get tough, how has he led them back from seemingly insurmountable odds to win division titles in 2006 and 2009? The Twins haven't been able to move past the ALDS since 2002 because the players just haven't delivered very good performances, and I can't find it in me to blame anyone but those players themselves for the consistently disappointing outcomes.
The team's lack of postseason success during Gardenhire's tenure should make us feel sorry for the man, not castigate him. I suspect that he wishes more than anyone that this team could find a way to win in the playoffs and bring home a World Series title. The individual honor he received yesterday is certainly not an adequate substitute, but it has been a long time coming.
Congrats Gardy.
Managers make several decisions throughout the course of the a ball game. Of those decisions, only a small percentage reflect a unique philosophy held be that particular skipper. There are certain things I don't like about the way Ron Gardenhire tends to manage -- his deployment of "small ball" tactics, his over-reliance on veteran players, his strict adherence to traditional closer usage, to name a few.
These tendencies understandably frustrate fans, but what those fans don't seem to understand is that basically all managers across the league make the same types of decisions. Most people in Minnesota don't get the opportunity to watch opposing managers under the same type of microscope, so there's a "grass is always greener" mentality that can take hold. At least until you watch Ron Washington, leader of the AL Champs and second-place finisher in this year's Manager of the Year voting, allow his bullpen to implode repeatedly in the playoffs while his best reliever sat on the bench.
Usually it's been Gardenhire finding himself as the runner-up in baseball's annual award for the league's best manager. He finished second in the voting five times in his first eight years at Minnesota's helm. Yesterday, finally, Gardenhire was named American League Manager of the Year for the 2010 season.
I sometimes get painted as a Gardy devotee because I've written pieces defending him against criticism and highlighting his positives more frequently than just about any other person covering the team.
I wouldn't say that's an accurate depiction of my stance. I've criticized Gardenhire for plenty of his decisions in the past. He typifies the "old-school" approach to baseball that can often drive me nuts; wasting outs on sacrifice bunts, batting a middle infielder second in the lineup regardless of his competence, emphasizing hustle and the mystical trait known as scrappiness over pure talent (i.e. Nick Punto).
But, to me, it seems flat-out ignorant to sit here and say that those traits -- however annoying -- have been significant detractors from the team's overall success. Gardenhire is the first manager in league history to capture division titles in six of his first nine seasons. He's often done so while overseeing teams with huge payroll handicaps and lesser talent.
This year, for the first time, he could claim neither of those disadvantages. The Twins entered the 2010 season with monumentally high expectations thanks to an aggressive offseason and unprecedented fan interest. Those expectations were met in the regular season, undeniably. The Twins won 94 games, dominated their division and became the first team in all of baseball to clinch a playoff spot.
They did this despite a great deal of adversity. Joe Nathan, one of the league's best relievers, suffered a season-ending injury in spring training. Justin Morneau, one of the league's best hitters, had his season end in early July. Many other players battled through injuries that caused them to miss time and affected their on-field performance.
Through all of that, 94 wins.
This isn't a sport like basketball or football where the head coach and his staff develop a game plan, draw up plays and manage timeouts. Ultimately, games are won by hitters coming up with big hits, pitchers making good pitches and fielders catching the ball. I do believe that Gardenhire's tactical decisions sometimes hurt the team. But far more, I think he does things that help breed success.
Given his results, that's awfully hard to argue.
Yes, there's the brutal postseason track record. Scapegoating the manager for those struggles seems like an easy way out, though. If Gardenhire's management is so deeply flawed, why has he been so successful in the regular season? If he is responsible for his team "playing scared" when things get tough, how has he led them back from seemingly insurmountable odds to win division titles in 2006 and 2009? The Twins haven't been able to move past the ALDS since 2002 because the players just haven't delivered very good performances, and I can't find it in me to blame anyone but those players themselves for the consistently disappointing outcomes.
The team's lack of postseason success during Gardenhire's tenure should make us feel sorry for the man, not castigate him. I suspect that he wishes more than anyone that this team could find a way to win in the playoffs and bring home a World Series title. The individual honor he received yesterday is certainly not an adequate substitute, but it has been a long time coming.
Congrats Gardy.
Monday, October 04, 2010
Gardenhire and the Playoffs
With a 2-1 loss to the Blue Jays, the Twins' 2010 regular season came to a close yesterday. Their final record: 94-68, good enough to clinch home field advantage for the ALDS, which will -- for the fourth time in eight years -- pit the hometown nine against the New York Yankees.
The Twins, of course, have a rather sordid history with the Yankees in October. In each of the teams' three postseason meetings, the Bronx Bombers have moved on with relative ease. This, coupled with the Twins' hideous regular-season record against New York over the past decade, has caused some fans to wonder whether Ron Gardenhire has the mettle to lead his team to victory against baseball's most legendary club.
I find the criticisms of Gardenhire based on his lack of postseason success to be shallow, at best. In no way does a 6-18 record in a tiny 24-game sample outweigh the manager's .550 record in almost 1,500 regular-season games. It's not as if he manages differently in the playoffs than he does otherwise.
The only time during Gardenhire's tenure that the Twins have lost a series in which they were clearly favored was against the A's in 2006. In that instance, the league's hottest team completely shut down offensively, scoring no more than three runs in any of the series' three-games despite holding home field advantage. Tough to blame that on the manager, in my opinion.
Outside of that series, Gardenhire's postseason history since 2002 -- when he pushed the Twins to the ALCS in his first season at the helm -- consists of three losses to Yankees teams that were vastly superior. To review:
2009: Yankees 3, Twins 0.
Frankly, Gardenhire deserves credit for keeping the Twins in this series at all. It was about as lopsided a match-up as you can get in October. The Yankees, winners of an MLB-high 103 games during the regular season who would go on to win the World Series, had the opportunity to rest up before welcoming an exhausted and undermanned Twins team to New York in Game 1.
Circumstances forced the Twins to throw rookie Brian Duensing against CC Sabathia in Game 1, a contest that no one could have expected the Twins to win. In Game 2, the Twins held a two-run lead going into the bottom of the ninth before Alex Rodriguez blasted a game-tying two-run shot off one of the league's most reliable closers. The game went to extra innings, Phil Cuzzi blew a call, and Mark Teixeira hit a walk-off homer. In Game 3, Andy Pettitte out-dueled Carl Pavano and the Twins' offense once again shut down as the Yankees completed their sweep.
Gardenhire's fault? Good luck making that case.
2004: Yankees 3, Twins 1.
Comparing this year's club to the 2004 team in any way is a slippery slope, since the two have almost nothing in common. But since we're discussing the myth that Gardenhire somehow lets up against the Yankees in the playoffs, we'll take a look at what went down.
The scenario was similar to last year; the Yankees had won an AL-high 101 games during the regular season to earn home field advantage in the first round. In Game 1, Cy Young winner Johan Santana tossed an absolute gem in Yankee Stadium, notching seven scoreless innings as the Twins went on to win 2-0. Gardenhire's team nearly took a commanding 2-0 lead in the series by stealing Game 2, but an unfortunate hop turned Corey Koskie's potential go-ahead hit in the eighth into a game-tying ground-rule double and the Twins were ultimately thwarted in the 12th inning. The Yankees beat up on Carlos Silva in Game 3 and won another tightly contested extra-inning thriller in Game 4 to take the series.
Can Koskie's bad bounce and a couple tough extra-inning losses against a team whose payroll was $130 million higher really be blamed on the manager? If you say so...
2003: Yankees 3, Twins 1.
Yet another series opened in Yankee Stadium, against a New York team that finished with the AL's best record, 101-61. The Twins won the first game 3-1 behind a brilliant collaborative effort between Santana and the bullpen. They scored only one run apiece in the next three games and, sure enough, lost them all. You can blame Gardenhire for the lineup's failures in these games if you want, or you can blame the fact that he was managing a team with serious payroll restrictions that featured Matt LeCroy as its DH and cleanup hitter.
The lineups have changed dramatically between these three teams, which is why they shouldn't be considered all that seriously when assessing the Twins' chances this year, but a few things have remained constant. The Yankees have been the best team in the American League, with 100+ wins, and have held home field advantage. The Twins have worked on restricted budgets, owned the worst record of any qualifying playoff team, and been horribly over-matched in almost every phase of the game.
None of those things are true this year. The Yankees won one more game than the Twins in the regular season, but they enter the postseason as wild card rather than AL East champ and for the first time will be forced to come to Minnesota to open a playoff series.
Where the Twins last year threw out an unknown and untested rookie to start Game 1, this year they'll rock one of the game's best starters. Where last year's lineup featured Brendan Harris as starting DH, Nick Punto as starting second baseman and Matt Tolbert as starting third baseman, this year the Twins will roll out Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson and sensational rookie Danny Valencia. J.J. Hardy, the No. 9 hitter for the 2010 Twins, posted a better OPS this year than four members of last year's ALDS Game 1 lineup did in '09 -- including the guy manning the two-hole. Among all those players I just mentioned -- Thome, Hudson, Valencia, Hardy -- none could be accused of having any sort of mental block when it comes to the Yankees.
I realize that this post will sound to some like another lame defense of Gardenhire from a guy who's expended all too much energy on the subject, but let's be clear: the Twins have been clear underdogs each of the three times they've faced the Yankees in a playoff series over the past seven years. It'd be nice if Gardy could have come out on top once, but it hardly could have been expected.
Things are different this year. As Bonnes noted last week, these Yanks are far more vulnerable than past iterations, and this time they'll have to come into Target Field to open the series. The Twins will arguably have a pitching advantage in every game, and even without Justin Morneau this lineup packs far more punch than any we've seen in any of the aforementioned series.
Hold the Twins' past postseason failures against them all you want. But don't make the mistake of thinking this year's situation bears any real resemblance to them. And don't act like the manager who's brought them here for a sixth time in nine years is a liability.
The Twins, of course, have a rather sordid history with the Yankees in October. In each of the teams' three postseason meetings, the Bronx Bombers have moved on with relative ease. This, coupled with the Twins' hideous regular-season record against New York over the past decade, has caused some fans to wonder whether Ron Gardenhire has the mettle to lead his team to victory against baseball's most legendary club.
I find the criticisms of Gardenhire based on his lack of postseason success to be shallow, at best. In no way does a 6-18 record in a tiny 24-game sample outweigh the manager's .550 record in almost 1,500 regular-season games. It's not as if he manages differently in the playoffs than he does otherwise.
The only time during Gardenhire's tenure that the Twins have lost a series in which they were clearly favored was against the A's in 2006. In that instance, the league's hottest team completely shut down offensively, scoring no more than three runs in any of the series' three-games despite holding home field advantage. Tough to blame that on the manager, in my opinion.
Outside of that series, Gardenhire's postseason history since 2002 -- when he pushed the Twins to the ALCS in his first season at the helm -- consists of three losses to Yankees teams that were vastly superior. To review:
2009: Yankees 3, Twins 0.
Frankly, Gardenhire deserves credit for keeping the Twins in this series at all. It was about as lopsided a match-up as you can get in October. The Yankees, winners of an MLB-high 103 games during the regular season who would go on to win the World Series, had the opportunity to rest up before welcoming an exhausted and undermanned Twins team to New York in Game 1.
Circumstances forced the Twins to throw rookie Brian Duensing against CC Sabathia in Game 1, a contest that no one could have expected the Twins to win. In Game 2, the Twins held a two-run lead going into the bottom of the ninth before Alex Rodriguez blasted a game-tying two-run shot off one of the league's most reliable closers. The game went to extra innings, Phil Cuzzi blew a call, and Mark Teixeira hit a walk-off homer. In Game 3, Andy Pettitte out-dueled Carl Pavano and the Twins' offense once again shut down as the Yankees completed their sweep.
Gardenhire's fault? Good luck making that case.
2004: Yankees 3, Twins 1.
Comparing this year's club to the 2004 team in any way is a slippery slope, since the two have almost nothing in common. But since we're discussing the myth that Gardenhire somehow lets up against the Yankees in the playoffs, we'll take a look at what went down.
The scenario was similar to last year; the Yankees had won an AL-high 101 games during the regular season to earn home field advantage in the first round. In Game 1, Cy Young winner Johan Santana tossed an absolute gem in Yankee Stadium, notching seven scoreless innings as the Twins went on to win 2-0. Gardenhire's team nearly took a commanding 2-0 lead in the series by stealing Game 2, but an unfortunate hop turned Corey Koskie's potential go-ahead hit in the eighth into a game-tying ground-rule double and the Twins were ultimately thwarted in the 12th inning. The Yankees beat up on Carlos Silva in Game 3 and won another tightly contested extra-inning thriller in Game 4 to take the series.
Can Koskie's bad bounce and a couple tough extra-inning losses against a team whose payroll was $130 million higher really be blamed on the manager? If you say so...
2003: Yankees 3, Twins 1.
Yet another series opened in Yankee Stadium, against a New York team that finished with the AL's best record, 101-61. The Twins won the first game 3-1 behind a brilliant collaborative effort between Santana and the bullpen. They scored only one run apiece in the next three games and, sure enough, lost them all. You can blame Gardenhire for the lineup's failures in these games if you want, or you can blame the fact that he was managing a team with serious payroll restrictions that featured Matt LeCroy as its DH and cleanup hitter.
The lineups have changed dramatically between these three teams, which is why they shouldn't be considered all that seriously when assessing the Twins' chances this year, but a few things have remained constant. The Yankees have been the best team in the American League, with 100+ wins, and have held home field advantage. The Twins have worked on restricted budgets, owned the worst record of any qualifying playoff team, and been horribly over-matched in almost every phase of the game.
None of those things are true this year. The Yankees won one more game than the Twins in the regular season, but they enter the postseason as wild card rather than AL East champ and for the first time will be forced to come to Minnesota to open a playoff series.
Where the Twins last year threw out an unknown and untested rookie to start Game 1, this year they'll rock one of the game's best starters. Where last year's lineup featured Brendan Harris as starting DH, Nick Punto as starting second baseman and Matt Tolbert as starting third baseman, this year the Twins will roll out Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson and sensational rookie Danny Valencia. J.J. Hardy, the No. 9 hitter for the 2010 Twins, posted a better OPS this year than four members of last year's ALDS Game 1 lineup did in '09 -- including the guy manning the two-hole. Among all those players I just mentioned -- Thome, Hudson, Valencia, Hardy -- none could be accused of having any sort of mental block when it comes to the Yankees.
I realize that this post will sound to some like another lame defense of Gardenhire from a guy who's expended all too much energy on the subject, but let's be clear: the Twins have been clear underdogs each of the three times they've faced the Yankees in a playoff series over the past seven years. It'd be nice if Gardy could have come out on top once, but it hardly could have been expected.
Things are different this year. As Bonnes noted last week, these Yanks are far more vulnerable than past iterations, and this time they'll have to come into Target Field to open the series. The Twins will arguably have a pitching advantage in every game, and even without Justin Morneau this lineup packs far more punch than any we've seen in any of the aforementioned series.
Hold the Twins' past postseason failures against them all you want. But don't make the mistake of thinking this year's situation bears any real resemblance to them. And don't act like the manager who's brought them here for a sixth time in nine years is a liability.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Managing To Win
By throttling the Royals 10-3 at Target Field last night for their fifth straight victory, the Twins were able to expand their lead in the AL Central to 4 1/2 games, thanks to a White Sox loss in Detroit. Having built up a seven-game lead over the Rangers in the win/loss column, the Twins' latest hot streak has helped ensure that they'll get home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs should they get there. By quietly moving within 2 1/2 games of the Rays in the standings, the Twins have also positioned themselves for a possible wild card berth in the event that the Sox manage to overtake them in the AL Central.
That the Twins have gotten to this point is impressive. That they've done it without the services of Justin Morneau almost defies belief.
Consider this: When Kendry Morales seriously injured his knee while celebrating a walk-off home run back on May 29, the Angels were 3 1/2 games out in the AL West. He hasn't played since, and the Angels now find themselves 9 1/2 games out in September -- effectively eliminated from the postseason.
The Twins were 1 1/2 games out after Morneau suffered a concussion on July 7. But instead of folding faced with the loss of their best hitter, the Twins regrouped and made a second-half charge with help from a number of contributors who were able to step up. Now, they find themselves in the favorable situation I described above.
Morneau and Morales both served as key sluggers in the middle of their respective lineups. Both are widely viewed as elite players; Morales finished fifth in the AL MVP voting last year, while Morneau finished second the year before. Both injuries were flukes, but both were the type that could potentially ruin a season.
The Twins deserve a lot of credit for refusing to fall apart despite Morneau's lingering absence. He's been gone for so long now that it's hard to remember, but the Canadian slugger essentially carried the Twins offense through the first couple months of the season. When he went down, Morneau led the league in OPS and was looking more locked in at the plate than ever before in his career. He was an MVP front-runner, and yet somehow the Twins have managed to sustain his loss without flinching.
The Twins are on pace to win 96 games. They rank first in the American League in batting average. Third in OPS. Fourth in runs per game. They've done this without Morneau -- who was the league's best hitter -- for 40 percent of the season. That is some kind of amazing.
A multitude of factors have made it possible. Joe Mauer hit .400 in the weeks following the All-Star break, picking his game up when the team was in desperate need. The value of Michael Cuddyer, who has played a very decent first base while contributing with the bat, has been underrated. Jim Thome has somehow morphed back into one of the league's most feared hitters at the age of 40, while making $1.5 million (can someone get Bill Smith a trophy already?). The Twins are getting production from third base that they never expected.
And on top of it all, there's a captain who's been holding the leaking ship together, just like he did last year when the Twins lost their star slugger down the stretch. Managers get judged by fans based on a lot of trivial minutia, but ultimately it comes down to winning and Ron Gardenhire has overseen an awful lot of winning. This year, he's paced to lead a flawed and injury-riddled team to 96 wins and a sixth division title in nine years.
Bill Smith's trophy can wait. This year, I think Gardy deserves his.
That the Twins have gotten to this point is impressive. That they've done it without the services of Justin Morneau almost defies belief.
Consider this: When Kendry Morales seriously injured his knee while celebrating a walk-off home run back on May 29, the Angels were 3 1/2 games out in the AL West. He hasn't played since, and the Angels now find themselves 9 1/2 games out in September -- effectively eliminated from the postseason.
The Twins were 1 1/2 games out after Morneau suffered a concussion on July 7. But instead of folding faced with the loss of their best hitter, the Twins regrouped and made a second-half charge with help from a number of contributors who were able to step up. Now, they find themselves in the favorable situation I described above.
Morneau and Morales both served as key sluggers in the middle of their respective lineups. Both are widely viewed as elite players; Morales finished fifth in the AL MVP voting last year, while Morneau finished second the year before. Both injuries were flukes, but both were the type that could potentially ruin a season.
The Twins deserve a lot of credit for refusing to fall apart despite Morneau's lingering absence. He's been gone for so long now that it's hard to remember, but the Canadian slugger essentially carried the Twins offense through the first couple months of the season. When he went down, Morneau led the league in OPS and was looking more locked in at the plate than ever before in his career. He was an MVP front-runner, and yet somehow the Twins have managed to sustain his loss without flinching.
The Twins are on pace to win 96 games. They rank first in the American League in batting average. Third in OPS. Fourth in runs per game. They've done this without Morneau -- who was the league's best hitter -- for 40 percent of the season. That is some kind of amazing.
A multitude of factors have made it possible. Joe Mauer hit .400 in the weeks following the All-Star break, picking his game up when the team was in desperate need. The value of Michael Cuddyer, who has played a very decent first base while contributing with the bat, has been underrated. Jim Thome has somehow morphed back into one of the league's most feared hitters at the age of 40, while making $1.5 million (can someone get Bill Smith a trophy already?). The Twins are getting production from third base that they never expected.
And on top of it all, there's a captain who's been holding the leaking ship together, just like he did last year when the Twins lost their star slugger down the stretch. Managers get judged by fans based on a lot of trivial minutia, but ultimately it comes down to winning and Ron Gardenhire has overseen an awful lot of winning. This year, he's paced to lead a flawed and injury-riddled team to 96 wins and a sixth division title in nine years.
Bill Smith's trophy can wait. This year, I think Gardy deserves his.
Thursday, September 02, 2010
Gassing Guerrier (Again!)
Something is wrong with Matt Guerrier.
Well, let's backtrack a bit. Last night, Francisco Liriano dueled with Max Scherzer over seven innings in the type of game that bores casual fans but delights hardcores. Both pitchers were at the top of their game; Scherzer mowed down the Twins hitters for nine impressive frames but hiccuped in the sixth inning and yielded a single run, while Liriano executed big pitches and performed well enough to exit after the seventh with a 1-0 lead.
It's a shame that Ron Gardenhire, a man whose bullpen management I typically commend, felt the need to engage in a needless chess match with his relievers that ultimately cost Liriano a win and could have cost the Twins the game.
With Liriano gassed after seven innings, Gardenhire rightfully turned to his best reliever, Jesse Crain, to start the eighth. Crain gave up a lead-off single to Austin Jackson but then got Will Rhymes to pop out on a bunt attempt. With one out and the tying run on first, and lefty-swinging Johnny Damon due up, Gardy decided to flex his managerial muscle and counter the Detroit lefty with one of his own. He turned to Randy Flores. The manager was ostensibly playing the percentages, but Flores has not proven to be a particularly effective weapon against lefties (certainly not more effective than Crain, whose devastating slider baffles hitters from both sides) and Damon doesn't have much of a platoon split.
Gardenhire's move completely fizzled when Jim Leyland subbed lefty-mashing righty Ryan Raburn to face the southpaw. Fortunately, Flores was able to get a strikeout anyway. With MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera stepping in and representing the tying run, Gardenhire elected to turn to Matt Guerrier.
This is where he lost me.
I could understand the reasoning behind Gardy's prior moves in the inning. Tying run on base, you want to get the lefty-lefty match-up, maybe preserve Crain a little bit... sure, you use Flores. But when I saw Gardenhire call upon Guerrier from the bullpen, I shook my head. Guerrier hasn't been effective lately, and he'd worked in three of the team's past five games. Why not let him rest a little? I wondered to myself (and to my tweeps) why the team was unwilling to turn to Matt Capps for a four-out save. They traded one of their best prospects for the guy, you'd think they'd be willing to trust him to come in and get one extra out against the opposing team's best hitter.
As I questioned the decision, I decided to put my perception that Guerrier has been struggling to the test. So I looked up his numbers since the All-Star break. His ERA sat at 4.50 -- not too bad. He'd allowed only 15 hits and five walks in 20 innings, which is actually quite good. Then I looked at this strikeouts. He had four. Guerrier has struck out four of the 76 batters he'd faced since the All-Star break.
He came into the game, walked Miguel Cabrera, gave up a game-tying RBI single to Jhonny Peralta and then got Brandon Inge to ground out and end the inning. That pushes Guerrier's post-break total to 79 batters with only four strikeouts.
Guerrier has never been a strikeout artist, but that type of minuscule whiff rate makes Nick Blackburn look good. It's irresponsible to repeatedly trust a guy that's allowing contact that frequently high-leverage late-game situations. Yet, Gardenhire continues to do it, and did it again last night.
That appearance marked Guerrier's 62nd of the season, which ranks him third in the American League. Guerrier is being used more than almost any other reliever in the league, and he's breaking down late in the season. We've seen this exact story before. More than once.
It's one lesson that Gardenhire just refuses to learn. Brian Fuentes' unavailability puts the Twins' manager in a bit of a bind, but there was no reason he really needed to use Guerrier last night and he should be taking any possible opportunity to rest him because at this point the righty reliever isn't fooling anybody and it's hard to believe his taxed arm isn't running on fumes.
Well, let's backtrack a bit. Last night, Francisco Liriano dueled with Max Scherzer over seven innings in the type of game that bores casual fans but delights hardcores. Both pitchers were at the top of their game; Scherzer mowed down the Twins hitters for nine impressive frames but hiccuped in the sixth inning and yielded a single run, while Liriano executed big pitches and performed well enough to exit after the seventh with a 1-0 lead.
It's a shame that Ron Gardenhire, a man whose bullpen management I typically commend, felt the need to engage in a needless chess match with his relievers that ultimately cost Liriano a win and could have cost the Twins the game.
With Liriano gassed after seven innings, Gardenhire rightfully turned to his best reliever, Jesse Crain, to start the eighth. Crain gave up a lead-off single to Austin Jackson but then got Will Rhymes to pop out on a bunt attempt. With one out and the tying run on first, and lefty-swinging Johnny Damon due up, Gardy decided to flex his managerial muscle and counter the Detroit lefty with one of his own. He turned to Randy Flores. The manager was ostensibly playing the percentages, but Flores has not proven to be a particularly effective weapon against lefties (certainly not more effective than Crain, whose devastating slider baffles hitters from both sides) and Damon doesn't have much of a platoon split.
Gardenhire's move completely fizzled when Jim Leyland subbed lefty-mashing righty Ryan Raburn to face the southpaw. Fortunately, Flores was able to get a strikeout anyway. With MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera stepping in and representing the tying run, Gardenhire elected to turn to Matt Guerrier.
This is where he lost me.
I could understand the reasoning behind Gardy's prior moves in the inning. Tying run on base, you want to get the lefty-lefty match-up, maybe preserve Crain a little bit... sure, you use Flores. But when I saw Gardenhire call upon Guerrier from the bullpen, I shook my head. Guerrier hasn't been effective lately, and he'd worked in three of the team's past five games. Why not let him rest a little? I wondered to myself (and to my tweeps) why the team was unwilling to turn to Matt Capps for a four-out save. They traded one of their best prospects for the guy, you'd think they'd be willing to trust him to come in and get one extra out against the opposing team's best hitter.As I questioned the decision, I decided to put my perception that Guerrier has been struggling to the test. So I looked up his numbers since the All-Star break. His ERA sat at 4.50 -- not too bad. He'd allowed only 15 hits and five walks in 20 innings, which is actually quite good. Then I looked at this strikeouts. He had four. Guerrier has struck out four of the 76 batters he'd faced since the All-Star break.
He came into the game, walked Miguel Cabrera, gave up a game-tying RBI single to Jhonny Peralta and then got Brandon Inge to ground out and end the inning. That pushes Guerrier's post-break total to 79 batters with only four strikeouts.
Guerrier has never been a strikeout artist, but that type of minuscule whiff rate makes Nick Blackburn look good. It's irresponsible to repeatedly trust a guy that's allowing contact that frequently high-leverage late-game situations. Yet, Gardenhire continues to do it, and did it again last night.
That appearance marked Guerrier's 62nd of the season, which ranks him third in the American League. Guerrier is being used more than almost any other reliever in the league, and he's breaking down late in the season. We've seen this exact story before. More than once.
It's one lesson that Gardenhire just refuses to learn. Brian Fuentes' unavailability puts the Twins' manager in a bit of a bind, but there was no reason he really needed to use Guerrier last night and he should be taking any possible opportunity to rest him because at this point the righty reliever isn't fooling anybody and it's hard to believe his taxed arm isn't running on fumes.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Real Problems
On June 18, I mused about Ron Gardenhire's arrogant response to reporters asking him about some of the team's potential concerns ("Minnesota Twins! We're in first place guys!"). I contended that many of those questions were valid, given that despite the team's place atop the AL Central standings, they'd just finished up a rather soft portion of their schedule with rather pedestrian results and were coming upon a far more difficult stretch in which those aforementioned concerns could come to the forefront.
In the 10 days since I wrote that post, the Twins have gone 3-6 while allowing the Tigers to close within a half-game of first place, with the surging White Sox just a game behind them.
The Twins' offense has disappeared on certain days as the team continues to receive less production than expected from key players like Denard Span, Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer. J.J. Hardy's return still is not in sight. Orlando Hudson is back but has hit just .147/.216/.176 with 11 strikeouts and only three walks in 37 plate appearances since returning from the disabled list (entering play yesterday), suggesting that his wrist is continuing to cause problems.
More alarming than the offense's slump, however, is the complete deterioration of the rotation outside of Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano. While those two continue to perform well, the team's other three starters have combined to produce a 5.24 ERA while allowing 321 hits and 42 home runs over 259 1/3 innings. Scott Baker has failed to get on track after getting his season off to a characteristically slow start, Kevin Slowey looks like a lesser pitcher in the wake of major offseason wrist surgery, and Nick Blackburn's inability to miss bats -- or even induce weak contact with regularity -- has turned him into one of the league's worst starters.
The lineup's current lull is likely to turn around at some point and shouldn't be an ongoing concern but the struggles of 60 percent of the starting rotation show no signs of going away. To his credit, Ron Gardenhire has sought to address the team's run-scoring issues by using Cuddyer at third base, and soon he will need to start taking measures to stem the rotation's bleeding. That might start with adding Brian Duensing to the rotation and it might ultimately lead to a heated trade deadline pursuit of Cliff Lee.
The Twins are amidst an ugly slump. That's nothing to panic about -- it happens to nearly every team over the course of a season -- but the problems facing this club are real and shouldn't be downplayed just because the Twins are maintaining a slim lead in the standings.
Make no mistake: if they continue to play the way they are now during their upcoming homestand against the Rays and Tigers, Gardy's Twins won't be in first place when the All-Star break comes around.
In the 10 days since I wrote that post, the Twins have gone 3-6 while allowing the Tigers to close within a half-game of first place, with the surging White Sox just a game behind them.
The Twins' offense has disappeared on certain days as the team continues to receive less production than expected from key players like Denard Span, Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer. J.J. Hardy's return still is not in sight. Orlando Hudson is back but has hit just .147/.216/.176 with 11 strikeouts and only three walks in 37 plate appearances since returning from the disabled list (entering play yesterday), suggesting that his wrist is continuing to cause problems.
More alarming than the offense's slump, however, is the complete deterioration of the rotation outside of Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano. While those two continue to perform well, the team's other three starters have combined to produce a 5.24 ERA while allowing 321 hits and 42 home runs over 259 1/3 innings. Scott Baker has failed to get on track after getting his season off to a characteristically slow start, Kevin Slowey looks like a lesser pitcher in the wake of major offseason wrist surgery, and Nick Blackburn's inability to miss bats -- or even induce weak contact with regularity -- has turned him into one of the league's worst starters.
The lineup's current lull is likely to turn around at some point and shouldn't be an ongoing concern but the struggles of 60 percent of the starting rotation show no signs of going away. To his credit, Ron Gardenhire has sought to address the team's run-scoring issues by using Cuddyer at third base, and soon he will need to start taking measures to stem the rotation's bleeding. That might start with adding Brian Duensing to the rotation and it might ultimately lead to a heated trade deadline pursuit of Cliff Lee.
The Twins are amidst an ugly slump. That's nothing to panic about -- it happens to nearly every team over the course of a season -- but the problems facing this club are real and shouldn't be downplayed just because the Twins are maintaining a slim lead in the standings.
Make no mistake: if they continue to play the way they are now during their upcoming homestand against the Rays and Tigers, Gardy's Twins won't be in first place when the All-Star break comes around.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Tough Road Ahead
Ron Gardenhire has grown irritated in recent days, apparently with the tenor of questions he's been receiving from the media regarding his club. Kelsie Smith of the Pioneer Press reported on an outburst from the manager earlier this week:
They're past Ubaldo Jimenez, but Twins actually just wrapped up a relatively light portion of their schedule. Eighteen of their past 24 games have been at home, and their only road series during that span came against a pair of sub-.500 teams: the Mariners and Athletics. While the Twins did have a few tough series mixed into their recent homestands -- including match-ups against the Yankees and Braves, who may be the best teams in their respective leagues -- they also had weaker opponents like the Brewers and Royals mixed in and they should be expecting to win at home against all comers.
Despite the soft patch in the schedule, the Twins emerge from this latest stretch of games with just a 1.5-game lead on the Tigers in the AL Central, and now they will have to run through a veritable gauntlet leading up to the All-Star break.
First, the Twins will open a National League road trip tonight in Philadelphia. After the weekend series with the Phillies, they'll head to Milwaukee for a three-game set before wrapping up with another weekend series on the East Coast against the Mets. After that nine-game tour of the NL is complete, the Twins will come home to face the Tigers, who are nipping at their tails in the division, and the Rays, who are tied with the Yankees atop the AL East. Then it's back on the road for three games against the powerful Blue Jays and three more against the Tigers.
And then it's the All-Star break, which will probably be welcomed because that is a tough stretch of 22 games with only two days off. Not one series among those mentioned is a "gimme," so the Twins are going to need to step their game up and start scoring some runs if Gardenhire still wants to be touting his first place Minnesota Twins when the All-Star Game comes around.
After a five-minute pregame session with reporters, during which Gardenhire fielded questions about Hudson's wrist, Joe Mauer's swing, an increase in team errors, how he believes Trevor Plouffe and Danny Valencia are handling big-league at-bats and whether he senses the fan base is more fanatical this season, the annoyed manager stood up to leave and hollered, "Minnesota Twins! We're in first place, guys!"Gardenhire was right. The team is in first place. But they're hardly in the clear and there is legitimate reason for concern about their current status.
They're past Ubaldo Jimenez, but Twins actually just wrapped up a relatively light portion of their schedule. Eighteen of their past 24 games have been at home, and their only road series during that span came against a pair of sub-.500 teams: the Mariners and Athletics. While the Twins did have a few tough series mixed into their recent homestands -- including match-ups against the Yankees and Braves, who may be the best teams in their respective leagues -- they also had weaker opponents like the Brewers and Royals mixed in and they should be expecting to win at home against all comers.
Despite the soft patch in the schedule, the Twins emerge from this latest stretch of games with just a 1.5-game lead on the Tigers in the AL Central, and now they will have to run through a veritable gauntlet leading up to the All-Star break.
First, the Twins will open a National League road trip tonight in Philadelphia. After the weekend series with the Phillies, they'll head to Milwaukee for a three-game set before wrapping up with another weekend series on the East Coast against the Mets. After that nine-game tour of the NL is complete, the Twins will come home to face the Tigers, who are nipping at their tails in the division, and the Rays, who are tied with the Yankees atop the AL East. Then it's back on the road for three games against the powerful Blue Jays and three more against the Tigers.
And then it's the All-Star break, which will probably be welcomed because that is a tough stretch of 22 games with only two days off. Not one series among those mentioned is a "gimme," so the Twins are going to need to step their game up and start scoring some runs if Gardenhire still wants to be touting his first place Minnesota Twins when the All-Star Game comes around.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Familiar Headaches
Last season, the second spot in the batting order was an enormous liability for the Twins. The crucial lineup position produced an execrable .232/.272/.326 hitting line when occupied by anyone other than Joe Mauer. That means that when Mauer, the league's finest hitter, was batting third, the players in front of him were making outs about 73 percent of the time. It was depressing.
This ineptitude prompted me to posit back in early spring training that the signing of free agent Orlando Hudson late in the offseason was bound to be Bill Smith's most impactful winter move. Sure enough, Hudson was an absolute revelation in the two-spot through the first two months of the season, batting .300 with an outstanding .377 on-base percentage while chipping in a bit of power as well, as attested by his three homers and .421 slugging percentage. That's production that we're just not accustomed to seeing from that spot in the batting order.
Unfortunately, an outfield collision with Denard Span at the end of May has put Orlando Hudson on the shelf for the first half of June, and in his absence we're experiencing some familiar headaches at the top of the lineup. Rather than simply shifting Mauer into the No. 2 spot and moving everyone else up a spot, Ron Gardenhire has elected to cycle different lousy middle infielders through the two-hole, writing in either J.J. Hardy, Matt Tolbert or Trevor Plouffe each day. The results have been disastrous. With Hudson gone in June, the team's No. 2 hitters entered last night's game having gone 4-for-47, good for a batting average of .085. They'd not managed one extra-base hit. They'd struck out 13 times and drawn four walks. They'd crossed the plate only four times in 12 games despite having Mauer and Justin Morneau behind them in the lineup. Tolbert had a solid performance in last night's blowout victory, homering and walking twice, but that doesn't change the fact that it has been a problem.
Gardenhire's stubborn fixation on keeping a middle infielder in the second lineup spot has been a major source of frustration for me over the years and it continues to this day. Some think I blow the issue out of proportion, but having an automatic out jammed in the middle of all your best hitters is clearly detrimental to run production, and the Twins simply haven't been producing many runs this month. Obviously, Gardenhire is handcuffed to some degree by the wrist injuries that have ravaged his middle infielders, but sticking three of the team's worst hitters in one of the most important positions in the lineup is absolutely not the answer.
It's not like Gardenhire doesn't want the team to win, and I find it impossible to believe that he doesn't notice how consistently these players have been failing to get the job done in front of the team's best hitters. I'd think that at some point he'd finally start resisting the urge to write one of the team's no-hit backup infielders into that lineup spot, yet he just keeps doing it, as demonstrated by Tolbert's presence there last night.
If Gardenhire's oft-stated excuses were once valid, they're not anymore. He claims he wants to have players in the No. 2 spot who can "handle the bat." If the guys he's trotting out there can handle the bat so well, one would think that they'd be able to get a hit once every 10 at-bats. They're not moving runners over, they're not getting on base and they're not working great at-bats. They're just making outs at a catastrophic rate and killing potential rallies.
Gardenhire says he doesn't want to throw everyone else out of their rhythm by moving people all over the lineup but this offense could use a shake-up. They scored a total of six runs in three games at home over the weekend. Mauer responded well to hitting in the two-spot last year (he hit .398 in 33 games there) so sliding him up should be an option. And if Gardenhire refuses to remove Mauer from the No. 3 spot, he should consider Delmon Young, who's been the team's hottest hitter. Even Nick Punto has proven to be less of a black hole than Tolbert and Plouffe.
The lingering injuries that are affecting Hudson and Hardy have put Gardenhire in a tough spot when it comes to constructing lineups, without a doubt. But a great manager adjusts to tough circumstances and makes move to keep the team on track. Gardenhire has not been making those adjustments, and the team's struggles to score runs over the past few weeks have been -- at least partially -- a reflection of that.
Thursday, April 08, 2010
Playing Against the Percentages
I'm generally supportive of Ron Gardenhire. He runs a good clubhouse and you can't argue with the results he's gotten since taking the helm here in Minnesota. With that being said, it is not infrequent that the man makes a completely illogical managerial decision that drives me bonkers. I had been wondering when the first such occasion would arise in this young season; it happened last night, when Gardenhire elected to work Jim Thome into the starting lineup by benching Jason Kubel rather than Delmon Young.
Ervin Santana, who started the game for the Angels, was basically a nightmare match-up for Young. Over the course of his career, Young has hit just .232/.266/.308 against "power pitchers" -- a term referring to hurlers who rank among the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. That's a category that Santana will typically fall into with his nasty stuff and somewhat shaky control. Additionally, Young has posted a weak .715 OPS against right-handed pitchers, while the righty Santana has been substantially more effective against same-handed batters over the course of his career. It was a fairly obvious instance in which Young should have sat.
Instead, Gardenhire decided to bench Kubel, one of the league's premier hitters against right-handed pitching. Last year, Kubel posted a phenomenal 1.014 OPS against righties, and Santana was clubbed by lefty hitters to the tune of .323/.385/.526. Perfect match-up. Yet, Gardenhire didn't see it that way -- likely because Kubel had previously only managed two hits against Santana in a meaningless 14 at-bat sample.
Giving Thome a start at DH last night was a good choice. Doing so by sitting Kubel against a pitcher he was almost ideally suited to face was astonishingly misguided. Some might argue that it's a moot point, given that the Twins won the game in spite of Young's 0-for-4 performance. But the guiding philosophy behind this decision is a significant flaw in Gardy's managerial approach, and one that is likely to manifest repeatedly throughout the season.
Gardenhire's a good manager overall, but he's far from perfect. Last night, we were reminded of that. Fortunately, the Twins still won, reminding us that -- while impactful -- singular lineup decisions don't determine who wins and loses games. The players do. Hopefully Kubel will be back in the lineup to help the Twins win tonight with another right-hander on the hill.
Ervin Santana, who started the game for the Angels, was basically a nightmare match-up for Young. Over the course of his career, Young has hit just .232/.266/.308 against "power pitchers" -- a term referring to hurlers who rank among the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. That's a category that Santana will typically fall into with his nasty stuff and somewhat shaky control. Additionally, Young has posted a weak .715 OPS against right-handed pitchers, while the righty Santana has been substantially more effective against same-handed batters over the course of his career. It was a fairly obvious instance in which Young should have sat.
Instead, Gardenhire decided to bench Kubel, one of the league's premier hitters against right-handed pitching. Last year, Kubel posted a phenomenal 1.014 OPS against righties, and Santana was clubbed by lefty hitters to the tune of .323/.385/.526. Perfect match-up. Yet, Gardenhire didn't see it that way -- likely because Kubel had previously only managed two hits against Santana in a meaningless 14 at-bat sample.
Giving Thome a start at DH last night was a good choice. Doing so by sitting Kubel against a pitcher he was almost ideally suited to face was astonishingly misguided. Some might argue that it's a moot point, given that the Twins won the game in spite of Young's 0-for-4 performance. But the guiding philosophy behind this decision is a significant flaw in Gardy's managerial approach, and one that is likely to manifest repeatedly throughout the season.
Gardenhire's a good manager overall, but he's far from perfect. Last night, we were reminded of that. Fortunately, the Twins still won, reminding us that -- while impactful -- singular lineup decisions don't determine who wins and loses games. The players do. Hopefully Kubel will be back in the lineup to help the Twins win tonight with another right-hander on the hill.
Friday, August 07, 2009
Frustration
While perusing my daily slate of blogs yesterday, I came across an interesting and thoughtful post on Seth's site in which he basically wondered aloud why many Twins fans feel the need to expend so much energy complaining and venting about the same central issues when it comes to this club. The sentiment is hardly surprising coming from Mr. Stohs, who is one of the most mild-mannered and easygoing people you will ever meet, and without a doubt it's something I can connect with to a large degree. It is somewhat ironic, though, that his post popped up on the same day I chose to rattle off a rather vitriolic rant about Ron Gardenhire's continual fascination with penciling the struggling Nick Punto into the lineup on a daily basis.
Such outright negative posts are pretty rare around here; as you can ascertain from the blog's tag-line I make a pretty strong effort to remain level-headed in all my analysis. I'm not the type to get overly worked up over a single loss, or to become emotionally distraught when I disagree with a move the team makes. After all, it's just a game. But there is something distinctly therapeutic about venting one's frustration with their favorite team in situations where that frustration is clearly warranted. And apparently there's a similar benefit in reading such diatribes, since those occasional posts carrying the "rants" tag have been among the most popular -- in terms of readership and response -- in this blog's existence.
And while I'd like to keep positive and remark on the things that are going well for the Twins right now, it's difficult to do so when you've reached the point of questioning the basic competency of some of the organization's chief decision-makers.
I didn't always agree with the front office's actions during the Terry Ryan regime, but in general I almost always understood them. Acquisitions like Rondell White, Ramon Ortiz and Bret Boone might not have worked out, but a person could always at least see the logic in adding those players. Even in the early days of Bill Smith's tenure, I didn't find any of his moves to be without reason. Players like Mike Lamb and Adam Everett had been valuable pieces in the recent past, and even though they didn't work out one could see why they were brought in. The Johan Santana and Matt Garza trades both look brutally ugly right now, but one could see how Smith and Co. envisioned those moves ultimately improving the team. Moreover, during those days the organization's personnel moves were constrained by a perpetually limited budget.
Recently, my patience with the front office as headed by Bill Smith has been wearing thin. To cite a prime root of my irritation, let's talk about the bullpen. It has been a clear, unmistakable flaw for this team ever since Pat Neshek went down with a season-ending elbow injury early last year. The problem was compounded when the Twins learned that Neshek and Boof Bonser, another hurler who they'd envisioned as a potential late-inning dominator, would both miss the 2009 season due to arm surgery. And yet, the front office did nothing to address this issue other than letting Dennys Reyes walk and signing free agent leftover Luis Ayala, a supposed sinkerballer with a substandard groundball rate who was coming off a 5.71 ERA season.
The unaddressed bullpen has predictably caused plenty of problems for the Twins this year, and yet the team has done nothing to augment the unit other than calling up mediocre former minor-league starters like Sean Henn, Bobby Keppel, Brian Duensing and Kevin Mulvey. The trade deadline came and went without any move being made to improve the team's absurdly thin relief corps, which was made more frustrating by the assertions of Smith and other front office personnel that no usable relievers could have been acquired without giving up top prospects. Such a statement is suspect in its own right, and in fact provably false when you take into account the fact that several solid relief pitchers were swapped in late July at relatively modest costs. For the front office to shovel these excuses onto the fans is not only obnoxious, but flat-out insulting. (Aaron Gleeman has a great take on this whole situation here.)
Thinking about the severe problems facing the Twins' bullpen always brings me back to Anthony Slama. My frustration over the organization's handling of arguably its best relief prospect over the past two years has been aired here many times, but I simply cannot discuss the front office's inept management of the major-league bullpen without coming back to it. Slama was honored as the Twins' Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2008, he holds a dazzling 1.75 ERA and 13.4 K/9 IP rate in his minor-league career, he is 25 years old, and yet still he remains mired in Double-A while veteran minor-league retreads lose games for the big-league club. Slama's numbers are, and always have been, exquisite; the only conceivable reason for holding him back is his unexceptional command (he has issued 31 walks in 62 1/3 innings this year -- a rate of 4.5 BB/9 IP). While somewhat troubling, this middling control has not prevented him from being highly effective overall in New Britain, and any notion that a mild problem with throwing strikes is sure to doom a player from having success in Triple-A and the majors should have been dismissed by Jose Mijares, who posted a 5.0 BB/9 IP rate in his minor-league career and has issued 4.5 walks per nine innings with the Twins this season but has still managed to be one of the team's three most reliable bullpen arms.
The Slama dilemma has become so obvious at this point that even Patrick Reusse, who rarely delves into the realm of prospect analysis, is advocating for his promotion. In Reusse's column, minor-league overseers Jim Rantz and Rob Antony suggest the possibility that Slama could be promoted directly from New Britain to Minnesota at some point this season, but such a drastic step should not even be necessary. Apparent complacency on the part of the Twins' front office personnel kept Slama stuck in Single-A for the entirety of last season and now in Double-A for the entirety of this year, in spite of his performance at both levels clearly indicating his readiness to move on. This conservative approach would be far more acceptable if it weren't for the dire circumstances that have been facing the Twins' bullpen for over a year now.
It almost seems like stubbornness is guiding the Twins' decision-making in this situation. And that annoying sense of stubbornness extends beyond the front office personnel and down to the team's manager and his lineup decisions. Joe Mauer has hit .398/.451/.707 as the Twins' No. 2 hitter this year, and yet Gardenhire has consistently refused to leave him in that spot for more than a few weeks at a time based on some apparent golden rule of baseball that middle infielders must fill that spot in the order. Early in the season, the manager wasted numerous rally-killing at-bats on players like Punto and Alexi Casilla, apparently not understanding that the second hitter in the lineup figures to receive the second-most at-bats of any player on the team and that wasting precious outs between two of your best hitters can be devastating to run production. Now, with the acquisition of Orlando Cabrera, Gardenhire has found another player to push Mauer down in the lineup. While it might seem silly to complain about this now, considering the amount of success Cabrera has had early on with his new team, nothing changes the fact that the newly acquired shortstop holds a .322 career on-base percentage and is much better suited for the bottom of the order. Yet, once he reverts to his career hitting levels, there is little doubt that he will remain in that two-spot, separating two of the team's best on-base threats with his mediocre production. One truly wonders what Mauer has done to make the manager believe that he is not perfectly suited for that second spot in the lineup.
With the injuries and poor performance they've gotten from their rotation, the Twins really have no business being in a playoff hunt this year. Yet, they are. They are within five games of first place with nearly two months remaining, because they play in a division without a single truly outstanding team, and despite their disadvantage in the standings they still remain in great position to come out on top due to an extremely favorable remaining schedule. Such opportunities do not come along often, but through inaction and inept decision-making the Twins are still managing to let it slide away.
This team is on the cusp of greatness, with Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan and others all having career seasons. The club is being held back by a number of glaring flaws that could and should have been addressed long ago, but it seems that this front office's answer is to sit still, cross their fingers and pray for the best while hoping that lateral moves like replacing Ayala with Keppel and replacing Harris with Cabrera [EDIT: and replacing Perkins/Liriano with Pavano] will appease the team members and fan base.
For a fan who dedicates a great deal of time to watching, discussing and promoting the team, that course of action can generate quite a bit of well warranted frustration.
Such outright negative posts are pretty rare around here; as you can ascertain from the blog's tag-line I make a pretty strong effort to remain level-headed in all my analysis. I'm not the type to get overly worked up over a single loss, or to become emotionally distraught when I disagree with a move the team makes. After all, it's just a game. But there is something distinctly therapeutic about venting one's frustration with their favorite team in situations where that frustration is clearly warranted. And apparently there's a similar benefit in reading such diatribes, since those occasional posts carrying the "rants" tag have been among the most popular -- in terms of readership and response -- in this blog's existence.
And while I'd like to keep positive and remark on the things that are going well for the Twins right now, it's difficult to do so when you've reached the point of questioning the basic competency of some of the organization's chief decision-makers.
I didn't always agree with the front office's actions during the Terry Ryan regime, but in general I almost always understood them. Acquisitions like Rondell White, Ramon Ortiz and Bret Boone might not have worked out, but a person could always at least see the logic in adding those players. Even in the early days of Bill Smith's tenure, I didn't find any of his moves to be without reason. Players like Mike Lamb and Adam Everett had been valuable pieces in the recent past, and even though they didn't work out one could see why they were brought in. The Johan Santana and Matt Garza trades both look brutally ugly right now, but one could see how Smith and Co. envisioned those moves ultimately improving the team. Moreover, during those days the organization's personnel moves were constrained by a perpetually limited budget.
Recently, my patience with the front office as headed by Bill Smith has been wearing thin. To cite a prime root of my irritation, let's talk about the bullpen. It has been a clear, unmistakable flaw for this team ever since Pat Neshek went down with a season-ending elbow injury early last year. The problem was compounded when the Twins learned that Neshek and Boof Bonser, another hurler who they'd envisioned as a potential late-inning dominator, would both miss the 2009 season due to arm surgery. And yet, the front office did nothing to address this issue other than letting Dennys Reyes walk and signing free agent leftover Luis Ayala, a supposed sinkerballer with a substandard groundball rate who was coming off a 5.71 ERA season.
The unaddressed bullpen has predictably caused plenty of problems for the Twins this year, and yet the team has done nothing to augment the unit other than calling up mediocre former minor-league starters like Sean Henn, Bobby Keppel, Brian Duensing and Kevin Mulvey. The trade deadline came and went without any move being made to improve the team's absurdly thin relief corps, which was made more frustrating by the assertions of Smith and other front office personnel that no usable relievers could have been acquired without giving up top prospects. Such a statement is suspect in its own right, and in fact provably false when you take into account the fact that several solid relief pitchers were swapped in late July at relatively modest costs. For the front office to shovel these excuses onto the fans is not only obnoxious, but flat-out insulting. (Aaron Gleeman has a great take on this whole situation here.)
Thinking about the severe problems facing the Twins' bullpen always brings me back to Anthony Slama. My frustration over the organization's handling of arguably its best relief prospect over the past two years has been aired here many times, but I simply cannot discuss the front office's inept management of the major-league bullpen without coming back to it. Slama was honored as the Twins' Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2008, he holds a dazzling 1.75 ERA and 13.4 K/9 IP rate in his minor-league career, he is 25 years old, and yet still he remains mired in Double-A while veteran minor-league retreads lose games for the big-league club. Slama's numbers are, and always have been, exquisite; the only conceivable reason for holding him back is his unexceptional command (he has issued 31 walks in 62 1/3 innings this year -- a rate of 4.5 BB/9 IP). While somewhat troubling, this middling control has not prevented him from being highly effective overall in New Britain, and any notion that a mild problem with throwing strikes is sure to doom a player from having success in Triple-A and the majors should have been dismissed by Jose Mijares, who posted a 5.0 BB/9 IP rate in his minor-league career and has issued 4.5 walks per nine innings with the Twins this season but has still managed to be one of the team's three most reliable bullpen arms.
The Slama dilemma has become so obvious at this point that even Patrick Reusse, who rarely delves into the realm of prospect analysis, is advocating for his promotion. In Reusse's column, minor-league overseers Jim Rantz and Rob Antony suggest the possibility that Slama could be promoted directly from New Britain to Minnesota at some point this season, but such a drastic step should not even be necessary. Apparent complacency on the part of the Twins' front office personnel kept Slama stuck in Single-A for the entirety of last season and now in Double-A for the entirety of this year, in spite of his performance at both levels clearly indicating his readiness to move on. This conservative approach would be far more acceptable if it weren't for the dire circumstances that have been facing the Twins' bullpen for over a year now.
It almost seems like stubbornness is guiding the Twins' decision-making in this situation. And that annoying sense of stubbornness extends beyond the front office personnel and down to the team's manager and his lineup decisions. Joe Mauer has hit .398/.451/.707 as the Twins' No. 2 hitter this year, and yet Gardenhire has consistently refused to leave him in that spot for more than a few weeks at a time based on some apparent golden rule of baseball that middle infielders must fill that spot in the order. Early in the season, the manager wasted numerous rally-killing at-bats on players like Punto and Alexi Casilla, apparently not understanding that the second hitter in the lineup figures to receive the second-most at-bats of any player on the team and that wasting precious outs between two of your best hitters can be devastating to run production. Now, with the acquisition of Orlando Cabrera, Gardenhire has found another player to push Mauer down in the lineup. While it might seem silly to complain about this now, considering the amount of success Cabrera has had early on with his new team, nothing changes the fact that the newly acquired shortstop holds a .322 career on-base percentage and is much better suited for the bottom of the order. Yet, once he reverts to his career hitting levels, there is little doubt that he will remain in that two-spot, separating two of the team's best on-base threats with his mediocre production. One truly wonders what Mauer has done to make the manager believe that he is not perfectly suited for that second spot in the lineup.
With the injuries and poor performance they've gotten from their rotation, the Twins really have no business being in a playoff hunt this year. Yet, they are. They are within five games of first place with nearly two months remaining, because they play in a division without a single truly outstanding team, and despite their disadvantage in the standings they still remain in great position to come out on top due to an extremely favorable remaining schedule. Such opportunities do not come along often, but through inaction and inept decision-making the Twins are still managing to let it slide away.
This team is on the cusp of greatness, with Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan and others all having career seasons. The club is being held back by a number of glaring flaws that could and should have been addressed long ago, but it seems that this front office's answer is to sit still, cross their fingers and pray for the best while hoping that lateral moves like replacing Ayala with Keppel and replacing Harris with Cabrera [EDIT: and replacing Perkins/Liriano with Pavano] will appease the team members and fan base.
For a fan who dedicates a great deal of time to watching, discussing and promoting the team, that course of action can generate quite a bit of well warranted frustration.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Madness
As we move past the All-Star break and embark upon the baseball season's unofficial second half, local discussion will increasingly center on what the Twins can do to make up their four-game deficit in the AL Central standings and mount a late charge that results in a division championship. This club has some glaring weaknesses which will almost certainly need to be addressed if they are to make a run over the final two-and-a-half months of the season. Whether it's through trades, promotion or lineup tweaking, those who aren't helping this team win need to be replaced by better producers. One particular player on the roster has stood out to me more and more as a chief example of this: Nick Punto.
This isn't an easy article for me to write, because in all honesty I don't mind Punto. In the past, I have defended him against staunch criticism from local fans and writers. I was one of the seemingly few people who thought the contract he received from the Twins this past offseason was a reasonable one. I understand the value that a player with his skillset can bring to the table. He's versatile, he's got a good glove, he takes a patient approach at the plate, he is a consummate teammate and he hustles his ass off at all times. He's the type of player I enjoy watching.
But there's simply no way around the fact that he's been terrible this year. He entered the All-Star break with a .201 average, and over the first 63 games of the season he has managed a whopping four extra-base hits (all doubles), leading to a .234 slugging percentage. During his disastrous 2007 campaign, Punto hit .210 with a .271 slugging percentage.
Now, Punto has kept his offensive game afloat to some degree with a respectable .319 on-base percentage, buoyed by an impressive walk total of 32. In the month of July, Punto has worked 10 walks in 33 plate appearances, which has enabled him to reach base at an excellent .394 clip in spite of a paltry .130 batting average. Now, I will say that it simply blows my mind that opposing pitchers have thrown the ball out of the strike zone often enough for Punto to walk in nearly one-third of his plate appearances this month in spite of the fact that he's shown almost zero ability to hit the baseballl; but, I just can't believe it's going to last. There's no doubt that Punto has shown a keen eye at the plate and an ability to lay off pitches out of the zone, but there's simply no reason for pitchers to throw him anything but strike until he shows he can actually hit them with any type of authority.
If Punto were an elite shortstop who brought the type of defensive value that Adam Everett did in his prime, the situation could be viewed a bit differently. But Punto is merely a good defensive player, as both fielding metrics and observation will attest.
The troubling thing about Punto is that no matter how poor his performance gets, he will seemingly always maintain a starting role on this club. He has started in each of the Twins past 12 games and has basically been written into the starting lineup whenever he's been healthy enough to play over the past couple months. The recent recall of Alexi Casilla from the minors would seemingly indicate that Punto -- who has been starting at second base regularly -- could be nudged to the bench, but there've been indications that he'll now take the lion's share of playing time at shortstop.
Never mind that Brendan Harris -- who has been far from spectacular offensively in his own right -- holds an OPS that is more than 150 points higher than Punto's. Never mind that in the final game before the All-Star break, Harris smacked three extra-base hits, which is of course one less than Punto has managed in 223 plate appearances this year. Never mind that Harris has held his own defensively at shortstop and actually rates very similarly to Punto there according to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) this season, in an admittedly small sample size. In the eyes of Ron Gardenhire, it seems that Punto simply must be a regular player.
Gardenhire continually reminds us of his warped view of Punto. In a Sid Hartman column printed from Sunday's Star Tribune, Gardy rattled off a number of over-the-top quotes inflating Punto's value to a ballclub, intimating that he has been one of the team's most valuable players because of his defense and claiming that when "everybody else does their job in the lineup, Nick Punto is fantastic."
At some point, members of the Twins organization have to start wondering if this man is delusional. Under no circumstances is a .234 slugging percentage "fantastic." And even if that type of production were tolerable in a lineup where everyone else is hitting, the simple fact is that this lineup already contains a several black holes as is. Punto's contributions are not "fantastic" and they are not helping this team win -- far from it.
Yet, there doesn't seem to be much doubt that Punto will play out the rest of the year as a regular starter. I generally like Gardenhire as a manager for several reasons, but his tendency to run the team based on personal feelings and preferences is beyond maddening. It's downright unprofessional. The situation that is unfolding with Punto is tantamount to an unqualified employee in another line of work receiving undeserved promotions because he sucked up and worked his way into the good graces of his boss. I can't imagine that the majority of people in the Twins' front office or even players on the team have a hard time seeing that Punto is clearly better suited as a utility man at this point in time; at what point does an organizational desire to win games override Gardenhire's stubborn fixation?
The Twins need to get better production from the middle infield, specifically from second base, where they've gotten a miserable 519 OPS this year. I doubt that replacing Punto with Casilla at second is going to provide the type of meaningful jolt this team could use, and I'm nearly certain that inserting Casilla at second while sliding Punto to short to displace Harris -- who's been the team's only competent hitter at a middle-infield spot this year -- will not help the situation at all.
The Twins must look to the minors or to other major-league rosters in order to address this frustrating dilemma. And whoever they call upon to help must dislodge Punto from his starting spot. Even if that means that someone has to go forcefully remove the lineup pencil from Gardenhire's hands.
Friday, May 15, 2009
The Defense Rests
Since yesterday's game wasn't televised and took place during the workday, my guess is that most fans didn't get a chance to see the action and ended up piecing together information about the 6-5 victory through the box score. A cursory look at the stat sheet indicates that Scott Baker once again hit a wall after pitching several strong innings; this time, Baker held the Tigers scoreless while facing the minimum over the first five innings before getting tagged for five runs in the sixth. Yet, a deeper glance at what actually took place gives us another lesson in the importance of defense.
With two outs in the sixth inning, Baker was facing Ramon Santiago with two runners on. Santiago hit a seemingly catchable line drive toward left field; Jason Kubel gave chase but watched the ball bounce over the wall for an RBI ground-rule double. The Tigers proceeded to rally for four more runs in the inning, and Baker's once-promising outing ended after six innings. The Twins' ostensible No. 1 starter failed to put a dent in his inflated ERA.
Had Carlos Gomez been starting in center, Denard Span would have been in left and would have almost certainly caught Santiago's line drive. The inning would have been over, the game still would have been tied 0-0, and Baker would have still been pitching in the seventh, keeping pressure off a beleaguered bullpen.
While Baker certainly deserves his fair share of blame for surrendering a deep ball to the gap off the bat of Santiago, the fact of the matter is that he -- like many other members of this pitching staff -- is a fly ball pitcher. Pitchers like Baker, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins are routinely going to give up a number of fly balls and line drives into the outfield gaps, even when they're going good. Having a pair of fantastic defensive outfielders like Gomez and Span to play behind pitchers like these is a blessing, but one that the Twins continually waste by benching Gomez and playing Span in center field, where he is not nearly as valuable.
That the Twins were able to come back and win yesterday thanks to a second straight impressive effort from what is proving to be an extremely resurgent offense does not change the fact that substandard fielding cost the Twins five runs and nearly a ballgame. When Aaron Gleeman suggested earlier this week that the outfield alignment of Span and Gomez would save as many as 80 runs over the Young/Span duo according to Ultimate Zone Rating, many scoffed at the sheer ridiculousness of the figure. And maybe it is an exaggeration. Yet, seeing an extra five runs score in one game because of an avoidable misplay in the outfield makes the number seem a little less absurd. Take into account the extra strain that the non-catch put on Baker, the bullpen and the team at large, and you'll have some idea as to why I feel so adamant about the importance of fielding a strong defensive alignment in the outfield.
I realize I'm probably beating a dead horse here, but to me, Gardenhire's handling of the outfield situation is the preeminent issue with this club right now. Between that (assuming it Gardy's decision, and not Bill Smith's), his unwillingness to play Brendan Harris on a regular basis and his stringent adherence to using Joe Nathan only in the ninth inning, Gardenhire is doing an awful lot to hurt this team right now. The Twins finally lifted themselves above the .500 mark with yesterday's win, but they can't count on miracle comebacks forever. Unless Gardenhire starts making some smarter choices, this team will have an extremely tough time maintaining their spot atop the AL Central.
With two outs in the sixth inning, Baker was facing Ramon Santiago with two runners on. Santiago hit a seemingly catchable line drive toward left field; Jason Kubel gave chase but watched the ball bounce over the wall for an RBI ground-rule double. The Tigers proceeded to rally for four more runs in the inning, and Baker's once-promising outing ended after six innings. The Twins' ostensible No. 1 starter failed to put a dent in his inflated ERA.
Had Carlos Gomez been starting in center, Denard Span would have been in left and would have almost certainly caught Santiago's line drive. The inning would have been over, the game still would have been tied 0-0, and Baker would have still been pitching in the seventh, keeping pressure off a beleaguered bullpen.
While Baker certainly deserves his fair share of blame for surrendering a deep ball to the gap off the bat of Santiago, the fact of the matter is that he -- like many other members of this pitching staff -- is a fly ball pitcher. Pitchers like Baker, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins are routinely going to give up a number of fly balls and line drives into the outfield gaps, even when they're going good. Having a pair of fantastic defensive outfielders like Gomez and Span to play behind pitchers like these is a blessing, but one that the Twins continually waste by benching Gomez and playing Span in center field, where he is not nearly as valuable.
That the Twins were able to come back and win yesterday thanks to a second straight impressive effort from what is proving to be an extremely resurgent offense does not change the fact that substandard fielding cost the Twins five runs and nearly a ballgame. When Aaron Gleeman suggested earlier this week that the outfield alignment of Span and Gomez would save as many as 80 runs over the Young/Span duo according to Ultimate Zone Rating, many scoffed at the sheer ridiculousness of the figure. And maybe it is an exaggeration. Yet, seeing an extra five runs score in one game because of an avoidable misplay in the outfield makes the number seem a little less absurd. Take into account the extra strain that the non-catch put on Baker, the bullpen and the team at large, and you'll have some idea as to why I feel so adamant about the importance of fielding a strong defensive alignment in the outfield.
I realize I'm probably beating a dead horse here, but to me, Gardenhire's handling of the outfield situation is the preeminent issue with this club right now. Between that (assuming it Gardy's decision, and not Bill Smith's), his unwillingness to play Brendan Harris on a regular basis and his stringent adherence to using Joe Nathan only in the ninth inning, Gardenhire is doing an awful lot to hurt this team right now. The Twins finally lifted themselves above the .500 mark with yesterday's win, but they can't count on miracle comebacks forever. Unless Gardenhire starts making some smarter choices, this team will have an extremely tough time maintaining their spot atop the AL Central.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Word From Up Top?
Having watched Ron Gardenhire manage this team for the past seven years, we've grown pretty familiar with his tendencies and preferences. We know his tactics, we know how he likes to fill out a lineup, we know how he likes to utilize his bullpen. We also definitely know that there is a particular type of player that Gardenhire especially likes, and that he is generally much more likely to have a longer leash with players who fall into this mold.
Gardenhire, much like the Twins as an organization, values good defensive players. He likes guys that play hard and hustle. If he likes a player, you'll frequently hear him refer to that player as "scrappy," or you'll see him talk about how the player "battles his tail off." Gardenhire also likes players who have a positive influence in the clubhouse. Offensive production often takes a back seat to these factors in the mind of the Twins' manager, which is why Nick Punto remained a regular player for the entirety of his disastrous 2007 season. It's also why Matt Tolbert has immediately seized the starting second base job and second spot in the lineup while Brendan Harris still must fight for playing time. I've always figured that Gardy's affinity for this type of player is based on the fact that he himself was a light-hitting hustle guy when he played in the big leagues.
Given Gardenhire's historical tendencies, I'm having a very difficult time understanding why he has seemingly elected to make Delmon Young his starting left fielder while relegating Carlos Gomez to a bench role as a fourth outfielder and late-game defensive replacement. Obviously I think Gomez should be the team's starting center fielder, and I don't suspect that Gardenhire would agree for the same reasons. I doubt he's aware that Wins Above Replacement (a statistic which incorporates both offense and defense) shows Gomez as an above-average player up to this point, with his advantage over Young being roughly equivalent to Justin Morneau's advantage over Michael Cuddyer. I also doubt that Gardenhire knows -- or cares -- that there are articles out there concluding that Denard Span is worth 37 runs over Young in left field. But being that Gomez plays fantastic defense, hustles all over the field, maintains an enthusiastic clubhouse demeanor and is built to do all the little things (bunting, stealing, etc.), it baffles me that Gardenhire is choosing to bench Gomez in favor of Young, who doesn't seem to embody any of those qualities. There's one theory I keep coming back to: he's not.
During the offseason, it was widely reported that the Twins were aggressively shopping Young. Several reporters who covered the winter meetings got the sense that the chances of Young being on the Twins' Opening Day roster this season were outweighed by the chances he wouldn't be. Of course, he didn't end up being moved, and the reason for that could very well be that no other general managers were offering much for the former top prospect, who was coming off his second straight disappointing major-league season.
So, perhaps the Twins are still interested in moving Young. And perhaps the knowledge that Young has no chance of ramping up his trade value while sitting on the bench has motivated Bill Smith and the front office to influence Gardenhire's decision-making process. If regular playing time could put Young on some sort of hot streak, it might pique the interest of teams searching for a right-handed bat.
Gardenhire, much like the Twins as an organization, values good defensive players. He likes guys that play hard and hustle. If he likes a player, you'll frequently hear him refer to that player as "scrappy," or you'll see him talk about how the player "battles his tail off." Gardenhire also likes players who have a positive influence in the clubhouse. Offensive production often takes a back seat to these factors in the mind of the Twins' manager, which is why Nick Punto remained a regular player for the entirety of his disastrous 2007 season. It's also why Matt Tolbert has immediately seized the starting second base job and second spot in the lineup while Brendan Harris still must fight for playing time. I've always figured that Gardy's affinity for this type of player is based on the fact that he himself was a light-hitting hustle guy when he played in the big leagues.
Given Gardenhire's historical tendencies, I'm having a very difficult time understanding why he has seemingly elected to make Delmon Young his starting left fielder while relegating Carlos Gomez to a bench role as a fourth outfielder and late-game defensive replacement. Obviously I think Gomez should be the team's starting center fielder, and I don't suspect that Gardenhire would agree for the same reasons. I doubt he's aware that Wins Above Replacement (a statistic which incorporates both offense and defense) shows Gomez as an above-average player up to this point, with his advantage over Young being roughly equivalent to Justin Morneau's advantage over Michael Cuddyer. I also doubt that Gardenhire knows -- or cares -- that there are articles out there concluding that Denard Span is worth 37 runs over Young in left field. But being that Gomez plays fantastic defense, hustles all over the field, maintains an enthusiastic clubhouse demeanor and is built to do all the little things (bunting, stealing, etc.), it baffles me that Gardenhire is choosing to bench Gomez in favor of Young, who doesn't seem to embody any of those qualities. There's one theory I keep coming back to: he's not.
During the offseason, it was widely reported that the Twins were aggressively shopping Young. Several reporters who covered the winter meetings got the sense that the chances of Young being on the Twins' Opening Day roster this season were outweighed by the chances he wouldn't be. Of course, he didn't end up being moved, and the reason for that could very well be that no other general managers were offering much for the former top prospect, who was coming off his second straight disappointing major-league season.
So, perhaps the Twins are still interested in moving Young. And perhaps the knowledge that Young has no chance of ramping up his trade value while sitting on the bench has motivated Bill Smith and the front office to influence Gardenhire's decision-making process. If regular playing time could put Young on some sort of hot streak, it might pique the interest of teams searching for a right-handed bat.
There are plenty of smart people who disagree with my opinion that Gomez should be ahead of Young on the outfield depth chart, and there have been a number of reasonable points used in support of that particular view. But none of these reasons seem like the type that would be used by the Gardenhire that I've come to know. I've got to believe there's more going on here than meets the eye.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Shaken and Stirred
While it was encouraging to see the Twins get back on the winning track this past weekend with a series sweep over the Angels, the bullpen remains a heavy concern. Twins relievers coughed up five runs between the seventh and eighth innings on Friday night, and weren't called upon in any remotely critical situations for the rest of the series as Kevin Slowey handed a 9-2 lead to the bullpen after seven innings on Saturday and Glen Perkins handed a two-run lead directly to the closer Joe Nathan on Sunday. Still, through 14 games, Twins relievers have combined to allow a 7.03 ERA and 829 opponents' OPS this season. It's been ugly.
The beleaguered relief corps took another hit yesterday when it was announced that Jesse Crain has been placed on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation. Crain struggled with his control on Friday night when he issued three walks and was charged with four runs over just 1/3 of an inning, but up to that point he'd easily been the team's best reliever outside of Nathan, posting a 1.59 ERA and 6-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing just one hit over his first six appearances. In spite of his struggles on Friday night, Crain was shaping up as a rare reliable arm in the Twins' pen, flashing a mid-90s fastball and an ability to miss bats. While La Velle E. Neal III reports that examinations of Crain's shoulder have revealed "slight inflammation ... nothing serious," one almost has to be alarmed to hear about any discomfort in Crain's right shoulder considering that he underwent reconstructive surgery for his labrum and rotator cuff less than two years ago. One also could be excused for being a bit dubious of this team's initial diagnoses of shoulder injuries considering how badly they missed the mark on Boof Bonser a few months ago.
Replacing Crain on the Twins roster for the time being will be Jose Mijares, who had a terrible spring but looks to have gotten back on track in Triple-A, where he allowed just two hits and zero walks while striking out four over 6 1/3 scoreless innings. Mijares adds a second left-hander to complement Craig Breslow and also could be a potent late-inning option if he returns anywhere close to the form he showed last September, but it's tough to know what you're getting from him considering how up-and-down his performances have been over the past couple years.
The other bullpen shakeup occurring over the past few days the move to was designate Philip Humber for assignment while using his open roster spot to claim Juan Morillo off waivers. Now, I will say that I'm not necessarily a fan of removing Humber from the roster as long as it means losing him from the organization (which is very likely). The 26-year-old right-hander didn't perform well this spring and hasn't looked good at all in a few regular-season appearances, but I tend to be very patient with once-promising players who dealt with major injuries, which is why I've been stubbornly hyping Jason Kubel for three years running, why I've been fairly patient with Crain, and why I will also be patient with Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser when they return. With that being the case, I still think Humber has some upside and don't like the idea of losing him for nothing, but I'm also willing to admit that his upside is probably limited at this point and losing him is unlikely to come back haunt the Twins in a major way. I certainly think he was more deserving of a spot on the roster than R.A. Dickey or Luis Ayala, but at this point the difference between those three pitchers might be negligible.
Anyway, back to Morillo. One of my chief concerns entering this season was a lack of right-handed power arms in the bullpen, thanks to season-costing injuries to Neshek and Bonser. That concern would be magnified if Crain's current ailment were to turn out to be something serious. Well, when you look at Morillo, "right-handed power arm" is one term that could pretty accurately describe him. Morillo is a fire-baller, and he displayed that in his Twins debut on Saturday night when he fired fastballs across the plate at speeds topping 95 mph on his way to a scoreless inning. Indeed, as Aaron Gleeman notes, Morillo has averaged 96.5 mph with his fastball over his brief major-league career, easily topping any member of the current Twins staff and in fact ranking as one of the hardest fastballs in all the league.
The main issue for Morillo has been harnessing that devastating fastball and throwing it in the strike zone on a consistent basis. Morillo has averaged 5.4 walks per nine innings over the course of his minor-league career, and last year in Triple-A he issued 56 walks in 59 2/3 innings for a ghastly 8.4 BB/9IP rate. In spite of his solid showing on Saturday night, I'm sure it won't be long before we catch a glimpse of the command issues that caused the Rockies to sour on him. Adding an erratic arm like that to a bullpen that has already been dealing with some serious control issues doesn't sound like a recipe for relief, but Morillo will initially assume Humber's role as a low-leverage backend guy, and given the Twins' history of turning discarded relievers with historically mediocre control into useful bullpen parts (Dennys Reyes and Craig Breslow come to mind), this certainly seems like a worthwhile project. If Rick Anderson can find a way to improve Morillo's control even modestly, he could turn into a powerful weapon for a Twins team that currently lacks hard throwers outside of Nathan.
For the time being, the Twins have subbed out Crain and Humber for Mijares and Morillo. The latter two both have electric arms and considerable upside, but also have struggled to consistently throw strikes in their young careers. They'll now jump into a bullpen desperate for quality innings, in an organization known for teaching control. It would seem that both are exactly where they need to be in order to succeed.
The beleaguered relief corps took another hit yesterday when it was announced that Jesse Crain has been placed on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation. Crain struggled with his control on Friday night when he issued three walks and was charged with four runs over just 1/3 of an inning, but up to that point he'd easily been the team's best reliever outside of Nathan, posting a 1.59 ERA and 6-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing just one hit over his first six appearances. In spite of his struggles on Friday night, Crain was shaping up as a rare reliable arm in the Twins' pen, flashing a mid-90s fastball and an ability to miss bats. While La Velle E. Neal III reports that examinations of Crain's shoulder have revealed "slight inflammation ... nothing serious," one almost has to be alarmed to hear about any discomfort in Crain's right shoulder considering that he underwent reconstructive surgery for his labrum and rotator cuff less than two years ago. One also could be excused for being a bit dubious of this team's initial diagnoses of shoulder injuries considering how badly they missed the mark on Boof Bonser a few months ago.
Replacing Crain on the Twins roster for the time being will be Jose Mijares, who had a terrible spring but looks to have gotten back on track in Triple-A, where he allowed just two hits and zero walks while striking out four over 6 1/3 scoreless innings. Mijares adds a second left-hander to complement Craig Breslow and also could be a potent late-inning option if he returns anywhere close to the form he showed last September, but it's tough to know what you're getting from him considering how up-and-down his performances have been over the past couple years.
The other bullpen shakeup occurring over the past few days the move to was designate Philip Humber for assignment while using his open roster spot to claim Juan Morillo off waivers. Now, I will say that I'm not necessarily a fan of removing Humber from the roster as long as it means losing him from the organization (which is very likely). The 26-year-old right-hander didn't perform well this spring and hasn't looked good at all in a few regular-season appearances, but I tend to be very patient with once-promising players who dealt with major injuries, which is why I've been stubbornly hyping Jason Kubel for three years running, why I've been fairly patient with Crain, and why I will also be patient with Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser when they return. With that being the case, I still think Humber has some upside and don't like the idea of losing him for nothing, but I'm also willing to admit that his upside is probably limited at this point and losing him is unlikely to come back haunt the Twins in a major way. I certainly think he was more deserving of a spot on the roster than R.A. Dickey or Luis Ayala, but at this point the difference between those three pitchers might be negligible.
Anyway, back to Morillo. One of my chief concerns entering this season was a lack of right-handed power arms in the bullpen, thanks to season-costing injuries to Neshek and Bonser. That concern would be magnified if Crain's current ailment were to turn out to be something serious. Well, when you look at Morillo, "right-handed power arm" is one term that could pretty accurately describe him. Morillo is a fire-baller, and he displayed that in his Twins debut on Saturday night when he fired fastballs across the plate at speeds topping 95 mph on his way to a scoreless inning. Indeed, as Aaron Gleeman notes, Morillo has averaged 96.5 mph with his fastball over his brief major-league career, easily topping any member of the current Twins staff and in fact ranking as one of the hardest fastballs in all the league.
The main issue for Morillo has been harnessing that devastating fastball and throwing it in the strike zone on a consistent basis. Morillo has averaged 5.4 walks per nine innings over the course of his minor-league career, and last year in Triple-A he issued 56 walks in 59 2/3 innings for a ghastly 8.4 BB/9IP rate. In spite of his solid showing on Saturday night, I'm sure it won't be long before we catch a glimpse of the command issues that caused the Rockies to sour on him. Adding an erratic arm like that to a bullpen that has already been dealing with some serious control issues doesn't sound like a recipe for relief, but Morillo will initially assume Humber's role as a low-leverage backend guy, and given the Twins' history of turning discarded relievers with historically mediocre control into useful bullpen parts (Dennys Reyes and Craig Breslow come to mind), this certainly seems like a worthwhile project. If Rick Anderson can find a way to improve Morillo's control even modestly, he could turn into a powerful weapon for a Twins team that currently lacks hard throwers outside of Nathan.
For the time being, the Twins have subbed out Crain and Humber for Mijares and Morillo. The latter two both have electric arms and considerable upside, but also have struggled to consistently throw strikes in their young careers. They'll now jump into a bullpen desperate for quality innings, in an organization known for teaching control. It would seem that both are exactly where they need to be in order to succeed.
Friday, December 05, 2008
Is Delmon Finished? Not So Fast...
Much fuss has been raised over Ron Gardenhire’s recent admission that he’d prefer to open the 2009 season with Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer as his starting outfield alignment, leaving Delmon Young out in the dark. Many view this as the manager overplaying his hand, potentially upsetting a historically volatile player, and lowering Bill Smith’s leverage when it comes to trading the 23-year-old outfielder (which, to some, seems like a foregone conclusion at this point).
Overreact much?
First of all, Opening Day is still four months away. A lot can change over that time, and the notion that Gardenhire’s stated preference during an informal Q & A session in Fargo sets in stone Young’s role on the bench seems awfully misguided.
It could be that Gardenhire truly has lost taste for Young and has no problem letting this negative sentiment be known to the public. But there are a couple other possibilities that are being overlooked here.
One is that this was a calculated move to play up the value of Michael Cuddyer, who has battled injuries over the past two years and whose contract is much more of a liability than Young's. If other teams get the sense that Cuddyer is of more value to the Twins and that the manager has lost faith in Young, doesn’t Cuddy immediately become the more valuable trade piece?
Another possibility is that we are simply seeing an example of a manager trying to light a fire under an under-performing player. Early last season, Gardenhire wrote Young’s name into the lineup on a daily basis and the coaching staff continually sang the outfielder’s praises to the press. In Young’s 2007 season in Tampa Bay, he literally played every game. In neither of those seasons did Young have any prolonged periods of excellent play, or any tangible signs of significant improvement. There is little evidence that working to increase Young’s confidence leads to improved production, perhaps because confidence was never an issue for him in the first place.
So, if the coaching staff believes that Young’s problems are at least partially mental or due to a lack of motivation, perhaps a change in approach is necessary. Perhaps the very public reports of Young being on the trading block and now the manager’s public assertion that Young is not viewed as one of the team’s top three outfield options are deliberate moves intended to challenge Young to live up to his potential. According to La Velle E. Neal III, Young already “has hit the gym big-time this offseason and has lost weight.” It is entirely possible that this is a response to the way the Twins have presented him during this offseason so far.
If you follow Young’s career from high school to minor leagues to major leagues to present, you see a pretty clear and steady trend. He is on a path, and if he stays the course, he is on his way to a very unremarkable career as a mediocre corner outfielder with attitude problems. Something needs to change, and perhaps all these trade rumors and this public “diss” from his manager are calculated maneuvers aimed at that exact goal.
Overreact much?
First of all, Opening Day is still four months away. A lot can change over that time, and the notion that Gardenhire’s stated preference during an informal Q & A session in Fargo sets in stone Young’s role on the bench seems awfully misguided.
It could be that Gardenhire truly has lost taste for Young and has no problem letting this negative sentiment be known to the public. But there are a couple other possibilities that are being overlooked here.
One is that this was a calculated move to play up the value of Michael Cuddyer, who has battled injuries over the past two years and whose contract is much more of a liability than Young's. If other teams get the sense that Cuddyer is of more value to the Twins and that the manager has lost faith in Young, doesn’t Cuddy immediately become the more valuable trade piece?
Another possibility is that we are simply seeing an example of a manager trying to light a fire under an under-performing player. Early last season, Gardenhire wrote Young’s name into the lineup on a daily basis and the coaching staff continually sang the outfielder’s praises to the press. In Young’s 2007 season in Tampa Bay, he literally played every game. In neither of those seasons did Young have any prolonged periods of excellent play, or any tangible signs of significant improvement. There is little evidence that working to increase Young’s confidence leads to improved production, perhaps because confidence was never an issue for him in the first place.
So, if the coaching staff believes that Young’s problems are at least partially mental or due to a lack of motivation, perhaps a change in approach is necessary. Perhaps the very public reports of Young being on the trading block and now the manager’s public assertion that Young is not viewed as one of the team’s top three outfield options are deliberate moves intended to challenge Young to live up to his potential. According to La Velle E. Neal III, Young already “has hit the gym big-time this offseason and has lost weight.” It is entirely possible that this is a response to the way the Twins have presented him during this offseason so far.
If you follow Young’s career from high school to minor leagues to major leagues to present, you see a pretty clear and steady trend. He is on a path, and if he stays the course, he is on his way to a very unremarkable career as a mediocre corner outfielder with attitude problems. Something needs to change, and perhaps all these trade rumors and this public “diss” from his manager are calculated maneuvers aimed at that exact goal.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Tuesday Notes
There's not much in the way of substantial news items in Twins-land, so today I'll just touch on a few tidbits...
* As expected, the Twins announced last week that manager Ron Gardenhire had been handed a two-year extension which will keep him as the Minnesota skipper through the 2011 season. There are plenty out there who aren't particularly fond of Gardy as the Twins' manager, but I'm a results-based guy and he has gotten results, leading the team to a 622-512 record over his seven years at the helm despite a consistently young and fluctuating roster. Though his tactical managing can be frustrating, I think Gardenhire does a fine job overall and is one of the upper-echelon managers in the league.
* The Twins have reportedly made an official offer to free agent third baseman Casey Blake. This news is surely horrifying to some, but I'm alright with it, provided the terms are reasonable. There are several other teams vying for Blake's services, so the fact that the Twins have submitted "the framework of an offer" is hardly a sign that they're close to signing him. Nevertheless, this is probably the first offseason rumor we've seen that appears to have some actual meat to it.
* Damn Gophers.
* I'm sure just about everyone who reads this blog is familiar with Seth Stohs, tireless author of SethSpeaks.net. Seth has recently been compiling a book called the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2009, which features over 175 profiles of prospects in the Twins' system as well as a foreword from our beloved Pat Neshek.
While there are plenty of bloggers out there with prospect savvy, I don't think anyone out there can measure up to Seth. Unlike many who formulate opinions on a young player simply by glancing over a stat sheet, Seth also attains knowledge from speaking with scouts, coaches and even the players themselves. If I'm on the prowl for information on minor-league players in the Twins' system, there is not one single source I would go to before Seth Stohs.
For anyone looking to brush up on the organization's up-and-coming prospects or just looking for a good baseball-related read for a cold winter day, I highly recommend supporting Seth and pre-ordering a copy (and maybe one for your friend!).
I've already got my copy pre-ordered, you can do the same by visiting this page.
* On a related note, one other book I've been meaning to recommend is Hammerin' Hank, George Almighty and the Say Hey Kid: The Year That Changed Baseball Forever. The book is written by Minnesota native (and lifelong Twins fan) John Rosengren, and it chronicles the compelling 1973 season, in which Hank Aaron was chasing Ruth's home run record, baseball fans were being introduced to the designated hitter rule, and Reggie Jackson was being... well, Reggie Jackson. A fine read for any baseball fan as the weather gets cold and curling up on the couch with a book begins to look like a more and more attractive way to spend your Saturday.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Blind Loyalty
When Michael Cuddyer suffered a fractured foot after being hit with a line drive during a rehab stint in the minors in early August, it seemed time to chalk 2008 up as a lost season for the right fielder. The best-case scenario had Cuddyer returning with just a few weeks left of the season, and with no minor-league seasons still going on, he wouldn't be able to get back up to speed at a lower level before joining the team. The success experienced by Denard Span after replacing Cuddyer in right field made it seem all the more likely that Cuddyer was done contributing this season.
Yet, for whatever reason, the Twins have been aggressively pushing to get Cuddyer back into action here in the final weeks of the season. He came on as a pinch-hitter in games on Saturday and Sunday, and just a day after saying that Cuddyer was not an option to start because he couldn't run on his foot, Ron Gardenhire inserted him as the starting designated hitter last night. My question is, why?
Prior to his pinch-hit appearance in Saturday's game, Cuddyer had not taken a major-league at-bat since late June. As aforementioned, he wasn't able to go on a minor-league rehab stint before returning to the team this time, so he hasn't experienced live game action since he hurt his foot. He's gone 1-for-5 and hasn't looked good at the plate. He can't run well because his foot is still bothering him. Furthermore, Span has done an excellent job of filling in in right field while Randy Ruiz has been solid as a right-handed bat off the bench. There is essentially no reason to be giving at-bats to Cuddyer at this point other than blind loyalty and commitment to his newly minted contract. With the Twins a game out of first place with 12 games left to play, their priorities should be arranged a bit differently.
Yet, for whatever reason, the Twins have been aggressively pushing to get Cuddyer back into action here in the final weeks of the season. He came on as a pinch-hitter in games on Saturday and Sunday, and just a day after saying that Cuddyer was not an option to start because he couldn't run on his foot, Ron Gardenhire inserted him as the starting designated hitter last night. My question is, why?
Prior to his pinch-hit appearance in Saturday's game, Cuddyer had not taken a major-league at-bat since late June. As aforementioned, he wasn't able to go on a minor-league rehab stint before returning to the team this time, so he hasn't experienced live game action since he hurt his foot. He's gone 1-for-5 and hasn't looked good at the plate. He can't run well because his foot is still bothering him. Furthermore, Span has done an excellent job of filling in in right field while Randy Ruiz has been solid as a right-handed bat off the bench. There is essentially no reason to be giving at-bats to Cuddyer at this point other than blind loyalty and commitment to his newly minted contract. With the Twins a game out of first place with 12 games left to play, their priorities should be arranged a bit differently.
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