No Longer a Bridesmaid

I think there are a lot of misconceptions about the impacts managers have on the outcomes of baseball games. I can't profess to know the intricacies of these impacts, but I am fairly certain that they are vastly overrated by the majority of people.

Managers make several decisions throughout the course of the a ball game. Of those decisions, only a small percentage reflect a unique philosophy held be that particular skipper. There are certain things I don't like about the way Ron Gardenhire tends to manage -- his deployment of "small ball" tactics, his over-reliance on veteran players, his strict adherence to traditional closer usage, to name a few.

These tendencies understandably frustrate fans, but what those fans don't seem to understand is that basically all managers across the league make the same types of decisions. Most people in Minnesota don't get the opportunity to watch opposing managers under the same type of microscope, so there's a "grass is always greener" mentality that can take hold. At least until you watch Ron Washington, leader of the AL Champs and second-place finisher in this year's Manager of the Year voting, allow his bullpen to implode repeatedly in the playoffs while his best reliever sat on the bench.

Usually it's been Gardenhire finding himself as the runner-up in baseball's annual award for the league's best manager. He finished second in the voting five times in his first eight years at Minnesota's helm. Yesterday, finally, Gardenhire was named American League Manager of the Year for the 2010 season.

I sometimes get painted as a Gardy devotee because I've written pieces defending him against criticism and highlighting his positives more frequently than just about any other person covering the team.

I wouldn't say that's an accurate depiction of my stance. I've criticized Gardenhire for plenty of his decisions in the past. He typifies the "old-school" approach to baseball that can often drive me nuts; wasting outs on sacrifice bunts, batting a middle infielder second in the lineup regardless of his competence, emphasizing hustle and the mystical trait known as scrappiness over pure talent (i.e. Nick Punto).

But, to me, it seems flat-out ignorant to sit here and say that those traits -- however annoying -- have been significant detractors from the team's overall success. Gardenhire is the first manager in league history to capture division titles in six of his first nine seasons. He's often done so while overseeing teams with huge payroll handicaps and lesser talent.

This year, for the first time, he could claim neither of those disadvantages. The Twins entered the 2010 season with monumentally high expectations thanks to an aggressive offseason and unprecedented fan interest. Those expectations were met in the regular season, undeniably. The Twins won 94 games, dominated their division and became the first team in all of baseball to clinch a playoff spot.

They did this despite a great deal of adversity. Joe Nathan, one of the league's best relievers, suffered a season-ending injury in spring training. Justin Morneau, one of the league's best hitters, had his season end in early July. Many other players battled through injuries that caused them to miss time and affected their on-field performance.

Through all of that, 94 wins.

This isn't a sport like basketball or football where the head coach and his staff develop a game plan, draw up plays and manage timeouts. Ultimately, games are won by hitters coming up with big hits, pitchers making good pitches and fielders catching the ball. I do believe that Gardenhire's tactical decisions sometimes hurt the team. But far more, I think he does things that help breed success.

Given his results, that's awfully hard to argue.

Yes, there's the brutal postseason track record. Scapegoating the manager for those struggles seems like an easy way out, though. If Gardenhire's management is so deeply flawed, why has he been so successful in the regular season? If he is responsible for his team "playing scared" when things get tough, how has he led them back from seemingly insurmountable odds to win division titles in 2006 and 2009? The Twins haven't been able to move past the ALDS since 2002 because the players just haven't delivered very good performances, and I can't find it in me to blame anyone but those players themselves for the consistently disappointing outcomes.

The team's lack of postseason success during Gardenhire's tenure should make us feel sorry for the man, not castigate him. I suspect that he wishes more than anyone that this team could find a way to win in the playoffs and bring home a World Series title. The individual honor he received yesterday is certainly not an adequate substitute, but it has been a long time coming.

Congrats Gardy.

The "Overlooked MVP" Ballot

Yesterday on the TwinsCentric blog, Seth Stohs presented the results of his poll for Twins 2010 MVP, with Joe Mauer claiming top honors.

I agree with the panel's decision. Mauer was my top choice, but singling him out as the team's most valuable contributor was not nearly as easy as it was last year. This division title felt like much more of a team effort than past seasons, where a few key players were forced to shoulder the load.

Today, I thought I'd highlight some of the people who didn't finish near the top of Seth's team MVP balloting (or didn't appear at all), but still deserve credit for the their important and perhaps overlooked contributions to this outstanding season.

5. Alexi Casilla

Casilla's bounce-back year has been a quiet one. He was very much a non-tender candidate after a dreadful 2009 campaign, but the switch-hitting infielder has stepped up when needed for the Twins this year. His .738 OPS would stand as a career high (granted, he's only made 162 plate appearances). He's made multiple highlight reel plays on defense. He's swiped six bags and been caught only once. A backup infielder can only make so much of an impact, but when given the chance, Casilla has shined.

4. J.J. Hardy

Trading for Hardy was a gamble, to be sure. The shortstop was coming off an absolutely miserable campaign in Milwaukee, and Bill Smith was parting with a fairly valuable asset in Carlos Gomez to bring Hardy aboard. Fortunately, the deal has worked out well. Gomez failed to take any meaningful strides with the Brewers while Hardy bounced back with a productive season in spite of some wrist problems. While his offensive numbers don't compare to the ones he posted in 2008 or 2007, Hardy's .733 OPS is significantly higher than the .695 average for big-league shortstops, and he was absolutely phenomenal on defense with an 8.4 UZR in 832 innings.

3. Orlando Hudson

I wrote recently about my frustration with Hudson's seemingly half-hearted play late in the season, and that continues to be an issue as his September numbers are even worse now than when I posted the article a couple weeks ago. Still, there's no denying Hudson's significant impact on the team over the course of the year as a whole. Last season, Twins' second basemen combined to hit .209/.302/.267, rendering the position a complete offensive black hole. This year, with Hudson leading the charge, the team has received a far more respectable .263/.332/.380 line from second. Depending on your flavor of defensive metric, Hudson also might have been the league's best defender at the position, and his strong on-base skills throughout much of the year were critical at the No. 2 spot in the batting order.

2. Jon Rauch/Matt Capps

When it was announced this spring that Joe Nathan would be forced to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the season, panic spread across certain factions of Twins Territory. Some believed that the elite closer's absence could cost the team several games and perhaps even a shot at the division title. Instead, Nathan's injury has been almost a complete non-factor. That's because -- while it hasn't always been pretty -- Rauch and Capps have consistently gotten the job done in the ninth inning, and in my opinion they don't get nearly the credit they deserve. The Twins are 83-2 this year when taking a lead into the ninth, and there's simply no way anyone could expect better results than that even with Nathan filling the closer role.

1. Ron Gardenhire

Alright, so I'm bending the rules a little bit. Obviously, Gardenhire isn't actually a player. But if we're looking to assign credit to those who've been overlooked in the Twins' success, there's no way I can pass over the manager. It's easy to point out areas where Gardy's questionable managerial moves have been detrimental, it's less easy to clearly identify the moves that paid dividends. After all, it is the players who dictate the outcomes of games; all a manager can do is put those players in position to succeed and keep them performing at a high level over the course of a long season. Did Gardenhire's timely resting of a banged up Mauer during a soft patch in the schedule help the catcher take his game of the next level in the second half? Did Gardenhire's easing of Brian Duensing from bullpen to rotation factor into the left-hander's outstanding results? Has Gardenhire's handling of Jim Thome helped the aging slugger stay strong late into the season, something he was unable to do last year?

We might never know the answers to those questions, because there are a lot of things that happen behind the scenes that we aren't privy to. Considering what this team has been able to achieve without its best hitter for half the year and without its best reliever for the entire year, I'm inclined to believe Gardy's done a whole lot more good than bad.

Straightening Out the AL Cy Young Race

Recently, there's been growing debate surrounding this year's American League Cy Young race. The three most popular candidates are David Price, C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez, all of whom are having outstanding years. One could argue that a few other starters deserve to be part of the mix, including our own Francisco Liriano, but for today we'll stick with the trio mentioned above. Let's compare some key numbers for those three hurlers:

Pitcher A: 217 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.4 K/9IP, 2.8 BB/9IP, .653 opp OPS

Pitcher B: 186.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.1 K/9IP, 3.5 BB/9IP, .640 opp OPS

Pitcher C: 225.2 IP, 2.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.5 K/9IP, 2.5 BB/9IP, .599 opp OPS

Undeniably, all three of these pitchers are having terrific seasons, but it should be clear from those numbers who's been best. It's Pitcher C, and it's not even close. He's markedly better than both of his opponents in every single category.

One factor that is not reflected above, however, is the situation surrounding all three players. Pitcher A (Sabathia) pitches for a playoff-bound team with an elite offense, and as a result, his win-loss record sits at 19-6. Pitcher B (Price) works under similar circumstances, and sports a 17-6 record.

Meanwhile, Pitcher C -- which is obviously Hernandez -- plays for a last-place team with a historically terrible offense. This has led him to an 11-11 record despite his spectacular performance on the mound. On 12 occasions this year, Hernandez has pitched seven or more innings, allowed two or fewer earned runs, and come away with a no-decision or a loss. This has happened to Sabathia and Price a combined total of six times.

The Cy Young Award is meant to go to the best pitcher in the league, and there's zero doubt that Hernandez has pitched far better than Sabathia or Price this year. Yet, because of the flawed logic that goes into the voting process, he could well finish third in the voting. That's because the writers who vote on this award have historically weighed W/L as the most important measure of success, despite it being the statistic over which a pitcher has least control.

Sadly, some of the leading voices in the baseball community have been trying to lead fans astray on this matter. Yesterday, Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com posted an article in which he suggests that Hernandez doesn't merit consideration for Cy Young honors due to the fact that he isn't pitching for a playoff-bound team. An excerpt from Morosi's column:

There’s an award for a pitcher such as Hernandez. It’s called the ERA title. Not the Cy Young Award, as voted on by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

To be the best, one must do what Sabathia and Price have all season — compete against the best lineups, in postseason-type atmospheres, before crazed crowds at hitter-friendly ballparks.

Of course, as I pointed out above, Hernandez leads his opponents in not only ERA, but essentially every measurement of pitching aptitude other than win/loss record. I'd certainly disagree with Morosi's second assertion; I'd argue that "to be the best" one simply must be better than everyone else. Hernandez has been. And, ironically, Morosi last year supported the case of rightful Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, who of course pitched a ton of playoff-type games in Kauffman Stadium for the last-place Royals.

In a chat on ESPN.com yesterday, Joe Morgan stated that it's "a joke" that there is even debate about this year's Cy Young race, proclaiming that "the name of the game is to win and [Sabathia has] won," all while ignoring the fact that Sabathia pitches for the top scoring offense in the league while Hernandez pitches for a team whose OPS this year is lower than Nick Punto's career mark. Then he made some point about Cliff Lee not winning games since being traded to Texas while ignoring the fact that Lee has been battling a back injury since switching clubs.

The Baseball Writers Association of America, which votes on the Cy Young Award, hit an all-time low for me back in 2005 when they selected Bartolo Colon over Johan Santana in a situation that was eerily similar to this year's Sabathia/Hernandez juxtaposition. Santana rated significantly better than Colon in essentially every metric other than W/L record, and yet Colon coasted to an easy victory based solely on his 21 wins and his team's success.

The BBWAA seemingly showed that they'd finally moved away from their fixation on win/loss record last year when they awarded Greinke with the Cy Young despite his 16-8 record (not to mention Tim Lincecum in the NL, who finished with just 15 wins). This year, they will undo all that progress if they hand it to the undeserving Sabathia while punishing Hernandez for the crappy offense Seattle's front office put together.

I want to care about the Cy Young Award. I really do. It's an important part of the way the game's history will be written and one day it may be the deciding factor in a Hall of Fame case. (Does anyone doubt that Bert Blyleven would have been inducted long ago if he had a few Cy Youngs sitting on his shelf?)

Unfortunately, it's getting harder and harder to care when the voters show so little consideration for the numbers that actually indicate how well someone has pitched. And to see respected national figures like Morosi and Morgan present the kind of woefully misguided arguments linked above is disheartening, to say the least.

Joe Mauer: AL MVP

When Joe Mauer's first swing of the 2009 season sent a ball sailing over the left field wall in the Metrodome, one got the sense that this was going to be a special year. Mauer missed the entire month of April due to a back injury, but in a way that might have been a blessing because his absence made local fans all the more appreciative of what he brought to the table once he finally was able to take the field. Even with a month's worth of missed games, there is no taking for granted what Mauer was able to accomplish this season, and fortunately the BBWAA voters saw it the same way as they awarded the Twins catcher with his first American League MVP award yesterday.

It had been widely assumed that Mauer would capture this honor ever since he batted .354 in September/October to put the finishing touches on a dazzling season and help launch his team to an improbable postseason berth, but yesterday it became official. Mauer becomes the fifth Twins player to win an MVP award, and the second in the past four years.

By now you're probably familiar with the numbers, but let's break them down again quickly. Mauer hit .365/.444/.587, leading the league in all three categories to capture the so-called "Sabermetric Triple Crown." He overcame a historical lack of power by bashing 28 home runs -- more than double his previous career high -- and drove in 96 runs while scoring 94 times. He walked more than he struck out (76/63). He hit .377 against right-handed pitchers and .345 against lefties. He posted a 1.067 OPS with runners in scoring position. It was a remarkable offensive season from just about any angle, and he did it all while putting in over 900 innings at the most demanding defensive position on the field. And while one can use the missed time early in the season as a mark against him, it's worth noting that Mauer was essentially an iron man after coming off the DL, resting less frequently than he ever has in the past and even catching both games of a crucial double-header late in the year. Even though he missed the entire month of April, Mauer played in 138 games and made 606 plate appearances; over the four seasons prior, he had averaged 131 games and 566 plate appearances.

Anyone with a working brain would have recognized Mauer as the AL's best player this year regardless of how the MVP voting results played out, but nevertheless it was quite encouraging to see Mauer place first on 27 of the 28 ballots while Mark Teixeira and his league-leading RBI total did not get one first-place vote. The ability of the BBWAA voters in this instance to look past traditional stats that tell you less about the performance of an individual player and more about the performances of his teammates, as they did with the Cy Young voting, represents refreshing progress.

Of course, the one downside to Mauer's capturing this award is that it will do nothing but strengthen his case at the negotiating table. And that is where our attention must now turn, because the Twins No. 1 priority at this point should be making sure they get their MVP locked up long-term.

Wrapping Up the Week

Haven't gotten a post in since Monday, so let's touch on the past week's developments quickly...

* The BBWAA has pleasantly surprised me this week by electing deserving winners for both league's Cy Young Awards, uncharacteristically looking past relatively unimpressive win totals and awarding Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum for their fantastic bodies of work in the '09 season.

Greinke, who had a historically great season, was the clear-cut class of the AL this year, and any concerns that the voters would lean toward the gaudier win totals of less deserving candidates like Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander or CC Sabathia were erased when Greinke captured all but three first-place votes and won in a landslide. The NL picture was a bit less clear, and I was pretty torn between Lincecum and Chris Carpenter, but ultimately Linecum's huge strikeout totals and 2.48 ERA caused voters to overlook his weak 15-7 record. Adam Wainwright, who looked to many like the presumptive winner due to his league-leading totals in wins and innings pitched, surprisingly finished third.

With the quality selections in these categories, the much maligned BBWAA is starting to build up some good will among modern-thinking baseball analysts and fans everywhere. Of course, that could all be erased if Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols aren't announced as MVPs next week.

* Results for this year's Manager of the Year voting were also announced this week, and on the AL side, Ron Gardenhire finished just behind winner Mike Scioscia to notch his fifth second-place finish in eight years as Twins manager (there's also a third-place finish mixed in there). When pondering Gardenhire's candidacy for this award in late October, my conclusion was as follows: "I don't know if Gardenhire excelled more than any other American League manager this year -- Mike Scioscia and Ron Washington both did excellent work -- but he certainly deserves to be one of the front-runners for the Manager of the Year award." So, obviously I think Scioscia was a deserving candidate and I'm happy he won. The fact that Gardenhire recorded his sixth top-three finish in eight seasons since becoming Twins manager, though, only strengthens my perception that he is viewed much more highly around the country and around the league than he is here in Minnesota, and that he's probably a better manager than a lot of local fans give him credit for.

* Thrylos98, who authors the Tenth Inning Stretch blog, has been claiming on his Twitter account to have inside info on a developing blockbuster deal between the Twins and Marlins that will bring Dan Uggla and Ricky Nolasco to Minnesota.

Around the end of the regular season, Thrylos made a vague mention of a major move on the imminent horizon for the Twins, and after the J.J. Hardy trade was completed he claimed that this was the move he'd been referring to all along. Of course, that statement doesn't really jive with reports that the Twins started talks with the Brewers only 10 days before the Hardy trade was consummated, so you can color me skeptical. There's no way in the world I believe the Twins have the pieces (that they'd be willing to move, anyway) to reel in a marquis package like Uggla and Nolasco, but if such a swap actually goes down, I'll officially start referring to Thrylos by the nickname "Scoop."

* On Tuesday night, Seth Stohs had third base prospect Danny Valencia as a guest on his weekly podcast. An amusing moment came midway through the interview when Valencia took an opportunity to call out one of his harshest online critics.

"That guy, I don't know his name, he goes by TT," said Valencia. "It just seems like he doesn't like me, it's kind of unfair, but you know I guess it comes with what we do. TT, if I can make you like me man, let me know if I can get you on my side. I hate to read all the bad things you say about me, but we'll see what we can do."

Readers of this blog might recognize that name, as TT frequently engages in lengthy debates in the comments section here and also runs his own blog, Granny Baseball. I found the quoted portion of Seth's interview quite humorous given that I've always felt that TT has been far too critical of Valencia without any legitimate reason. In fact, just this week, when making his recommendations for additions to the Twins' 40-man roster on his blog, TT astonishingly skipped over Valencia while pointing out that the Twins seem high on the third baseman "despite his struggles at AAA last year." That seems like a rather absurd spin on a 758 OPS in a 24-year-old's first stint at the Triple-A level, and of course it's not difficult for any objective observer to see why the Twins are high on Valencia given his .299/.354/.480 hitting line in the minors and the relatively success he has experienced at every level, but it's hardly surprising to read that from TT.

Perhaps a personal appeal from the player himself will soften our friend's stance on Valencia. Somehow I doubt it.

By the way, make sure to check out Seth's podcast from Tuesday night here if you haven't had a chance. Aside from the interview with Valencia, who comes off as a real good kid, Seth also chatted with Steve Singleton, who just yesterday finished up a solid run in the Arizona Fall League.

* Finally, when you get a chance, make sure to check out the newest promising blog dedicated to the Twins and Minnesota sports at large, Undomed.

Ron Gardenhire: AL Manager of the Year?

There are two general points of view when it comes to Ron Gardenhire.

Most people outside of Minnesota seem to feel that he's one of the game's best managers, a man who consistently gets the very most out of his players and puts the Twins in a position to contend year in and year out. When a Twins game is nationally broadcast, you almost always hear the announcers fawning over Gardenhire. Fellow managers and baseball people across the league consistently speak very highly of him. Joe Posnanski -- who I think is one of the very sharpest baseball minds in the country -- has repeatedly opined that the Twins' manager is the best in the game. Gardenhire had placed among the top three finishers in the Manager of the Year voting five times in his seven years as a manager entering this season.

Many people within Minnesota who follow the Twins closely, on the other hand, seem to feel that Gardenhire is a terrible manager who holds the team back year in and year out. Fans rail on him for his bullpen management. Bloggers rip him for his stubborn loyalty to bad players. It seems that every week during the baseball season there are multiple columns in the local newspapers in which scribes question Gardy's tactical decision-making.

Logically, it would seem that the group that follows the team closely and gets an intimate perspective of how the manager operates would provide the most accurate portrayal of that manager's job aptitude. However, I don't think that's the case here. I feel as though many hardcore Twins fans get so worked up over Gardenhire's flaws that they are unable to fully appreciate the man's full body of work -- an eight-year tenure which now includes seven winning records and five division championships.

The most recent of those AL Central titles stands as perhaps the most impressive, all things considered. By mid-September this year, the Twins sat several games out of first place with numerous key players on the shelf. The starting first baseman -- who had been a crucial contributor during a first half in which he'd posted MVP-caliber numbers -- was done for the year with a back injury, as was the team's slick-gloved, power-hitting third baseman. Three-fifths of the season-opening rotation had lost their starting jobs, due to either injury or ineffectiveness (or both). The team was relying largely on mediocre minor-leaguers and relatively underwhelming trade acquisitions to scrape by. Most fans had given up on the club, and it would have been tough to blame the players themselves for packing it in and beginning to concentrate on next year.

But, they didn't. The Twins rallied to win 16 of their final 20 regular-season games to draw even with the first-place Tigers and force a one-game tiebreaker at the Metrodome. There, in a hard-fought extra-innings battle, the Twins emerged victorious, capping off one of the most improbable late-season comebacks in franchise history. Plenty of credit rightfully goes to the players who stepped up and carried the team during this impressive late stretch, but it's tough to overlook the man who piloted the ship.

Without a doubt, Gardenhire has his flaws. As a person who has watched the team regularly during his entire tenure, I'm not ignorant to those flaws. But what people around here don't seem to realize is that every manager has flaws. Yes, Gardenhire is too stringently adherent to traditional closer usage when it comes to utilizing Joe Nathan. Yes, he's too stubbornly fixated on having a middle infielder batting in the second spot in the order, regardless of whether that player's offensive proficiency qualifies them for such an important duty. Yes, he's overly loyal to the players he deems "scrappy." Yes, he lets his obsession with veteran presence put younger and more talented players at an often unfair disadvantage. But these are flaws that plague many of the game's managers. We've seen the skipper of each team in the playoffs this year make questionable decisions. There's no denying that Gardy is largely able to succeed in spite of his downfalls.

For whatever reason, people around here seem quick to criticize Gardenhire but hesitant to credit him for the things he does well. During almost every game I hear people complaining about the way he operates the bullpen, but the Twins finished fourth in the the league in bullpen ERA and sixth in WHIP this year despite sporting a corps of relievers that -- early in the season -- looked like it was going to be a complete disaster. In fact, Gardenhire's bullpens consistently rank among the league's best, and I would argue that managing relievers is actually one of his greatest strengths. It's easy to play the "coulda shoulda woulda" game during the season and point out individual instances where Gardy perhaps could have more effectively utilized his bullpen arms, but again I encourage you to step back and consider the overall results.

Gardenhire is also liked and respected by his players, which is no small thing. He keeps the clubhouse loose and and avoids infighting. It's worth noting that, despite his troubled past, Delmon Young has had essentially zero publicized negative incidents since coming to Minnesota. Orlando Cabrera, who was reportedly run out of Chicago last year after run-ins with his White Sox teammates and manager, was praised as a clubhouse staple here after coming over. Players enjoy playing for Gardy and they seem to stay motivated and focused.

A manager's effect on the outcomes of ballgames tends to be overrated. Gardenhire made some tactical decisions that helped the team this year and some that hurt it. But, in the end, his players came together for him and made a huge push, winning game after game late in the season to capture the division title.

I don't know if Gardenhire excelled more than any other American League manager this year -- Mike Scoscia and Ron Washington both did excellent work -- but he certainly deserves to be one of the front-runners for the Manager of the Year award. Even if local fans are too blinded by his downfalls to admit it.

Twins Near the Top

Yesterday, Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia was named American League MVP, as I and many others expected. Of note for Twins fans is that both Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer finished in the top five, with Morneau coming in second behind Pedroia and Mauer finishing fourth behind Kevin Youkilis.

The results of the voting are not terribly surprising. I'm fine with Pedroia winning the award, and it's encouraging to see that Mauer finished in the top five (I'd feared he wouldn't) and that Francisco Rodriguez did not (he came in sixth). Not to slight K-Rod, but for a closer with unexceptional numbers like him to even sniff the Most Valuable Player award would be a pretty major travesty. Naturally, a single voter saw fit to give him a first-place vote.

Star Tribune beat writer La Velle E. Neal III revealed a few of his selections, noting that he ranked Pedroia first, Morneau second, and Mauer fifth. With all due respect, I found it a bit stunning that Neal -- an intelligent baseball mind who seems to be up on the cutting-edge statistical analysis, reads a number of blogs and seems to respect guys who think like Aaron Gleeman -- would rank Mauer fifth, behind Morneau and Kevin Youkilis. (He didn't mention who he ranked fourth on his ballot, but I sincerely hope it wasn't Rodriguez; that would be especially absurd in his case considering his vocal opposition to starting pitchers receiving MVP consideration.) As a Twins fan, I loved watching Morneau all season and appreciated what he was able to do for the Minnesota offense, but looking back, .300/.374/.499 with 23 home runs is just not a very impressive line for a first baseman. Granted, Morneau was terrific with runners in scoring position (.348/.443/.602), Mauer was no slouch (.362/.465/.449). Not to mention Mauer played Gold Glove caliber defense at perhaps the most important defensive position on the field and led the league in hitting, making him the only AL catcher to accomplish that feat other than... Joe Mauer. I just don't see any legitimate argument for ranking Morneau higher than Mauer.

In any case, while I'm a little disappointed in the way Neal voted, I'm not at all disgusted by it. To each his own. And overall I'm just happy to see two Twins finish in the top four, even though I firmly believe their spots should have been switched. What does disgust me, though, is the way some of the other voters cast their ballots. There was, of course, the individual who gave a first-place vote to Rodriguez, who was not only a closer, but perhaps the third or fourth most effective closer in the league. Then there was the individual who gave a fifth-place vote to Jason Bartlett, who posted a stellar 690 OPS. One writer left Pedroia off the ballot completely. Completely!!!

This kind of stuff drives me nuts. I know there are some people out there who say they just stopped caring about how these baseball writers vote on awards like MVP and Cy Young due to the countless examples of sheer idiocy . I know that's a viewpoint that my pal Gleeman has been pushing. But to me, you almost have care about these awards as a baseball fan? What's next, you don't care about the Hall of Fame? Because, like it or not, whether or not a guy gets into the Hall is largely based on how many MVP or Cy Young awards he accumulated during his career. So next you basically have to stop caring about who gets into the Hall of Fame, but man... at that point you're really just ignoring a huge part of the game's heritage and tradition.

Funny, the winners of all six major awards (ROTY, Cy, MVP for each league) have been announced, and I really don't have any problem with a single one of them, but here I am still complaining. I guess that's just the nature of the beast.

On a final note, please make sure to swing by Twins Territory today for the first edition of a series of Offseason Twins Roundtable discussions between Seth Stohs, Alex Halsted and myself (Jesse Lund will hopefully be joining the fray next time around). It's all the nerdy Twins blather you can possibly endure!

Mosvick's MVPs

About a week, my colleague gave his perspective on the MVP race, largely choosing arguable choices. However, since I don't get much of a chance to post during the school year and exhausting job search, I wanted to take the weekend time to post. Plus, the Rays just lost and allowed a Game 7 against Boston to happen. Before most of (hopefully) collectively beg for Boston to lose, let me give you my version of the run-down and some of my reasons for occasionally agreeing with the other Nick.

AL MVP: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins C

Its really hard for me to make the decision and be able to demand there wasn't any homerism. But, really, how much can that take away from a pretty clear-cut argument? Mr. Nelson mentioned that there are other contenders like the Red Sox's Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, as well as Grady Sizemore, Alex Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, and Justin Morneau. But what this list also emphasizes is that there wasn't a particularly strong MVP field in 2008.

This goes to two more reasons, in addition to the arguments about offensive and defensive greatness at a crucial position given by the other Nick. For one, when there isn't a strong field and there is a player having a historically great season, the vote should lean his way. In case anyone forgot, Joe Mauer is the only AL catcher to ever win a batting title (Ernie Lombardi won a batting title in the NL in 1938, hitting .342) and he has now done that twice at the age of 25. Unbelievable. Of course, this is my argument and is clearly not agreed upon by the voters. There are obviously examples like no MVP for McGwire in the 70 homer season, but only Jose Canseco won a MVP in a 40/40 campaign and there have been only four of those. The second reason is that Mauer's ability to get on base and score runs (98 of them) was a big reason for Morneau's 129 RBI that make him a contender. (For argument's sake, Mauer was even better than Morneau with runners on, but didn't have quite the amount of RBI opportunities)

NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals 1B

There are a great many reasons to pick Pujols over many much weaker "contenders." I frankly find the argument for Ryan Howard laughable, since Chase Utley (62.2 VORP) and Jimmy Rollins (43.5 VORP) were more valuable hitters (Howard had a 35.3 VORP to go with his unsightly .251 average) and not only play more valuable defensive positions, but are actually good defensive players. Howard is a sub-par defender and Pujols is the best in the league at his position. As for VORP? Pujols is #1 in both leagues with a 96.8, way ahead of Hanley Ramirez at 80.7.

Now I am not arguing that VORP is the greatest or most useful stat, since Mauer did not lead the AL in VORP (A-Rod did) and I am still picking him. However, it still is a great tool for evaluating offensive value and, as I noted, my argument for Mauer goes beyond that. If you don't like that stat, Pujols also lead both leagues with 142 runs created and 342 total bases. He produced a total of 81 extra-base hits and arguably his best hitting line at .357/.462/.653, good for a 190 OPS plus. Pujols is simply the best hitter in the league, a very good defender, and without him, the Cardinals wouldn't have smelled the playoffs in my opinion.

AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

Its hard to pick against Cliff Lee. I hate the wins stat, because I think that the pitcher does not have much control over wins and thus it is not that useful of a statistic in analyzing who is the best pitcher. (That is, if that is how you think of Cy Young - league voting rules would agree with me)Lee also lead the league in ERA, which is more valuable than wins but still not entirely in the pitcher's control. I think Halladay cuts the lead by not only coming very close to Lee with 20 wins and a 2.78 ERA (compared to 22 and a 2.54 ERA), but also leading the league in WHIP (1.05, with Lee at 1.11), coming in third in strikeouts (206, to Lee's 170), leading the league in innings pitched at 246 (to Lee's 223 1/3), was harder to hit (.237 OBA, to Lee's .253), and had a better K/BB ratio (5.28, to Lee's 5.00).

Most of these are very close, but I feel like a few things give Halladay the edge, mostly given his lead in innings, strikeouts and opponent batting average, showing more dominance and value to his team. His Blue Jays also were in the playoff hunt, which I don't like to give a lot of credence to, but does help in a close race.

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

I thought this race was actually easy, but apparently my colleague disagrees given his vote for Brad Lidge. Granted, I said historically great seasons should get an edge in these votes if the field is not great. However, there is a difference between a catcher winning two batting titles at the age of 25 and a closer having a flawless season in terms of not blowing a save. While impressive, I just don't think they are the same ballpark. I've written on here before that saves are not only a flawed statistic, but not even a particularly good one for accessing relievers in many ways. Given that, a reliever also needs to have a incredible season for me to find them Cy Young worthy (I would have given Jason Schmidt the 2003 Cy Young over Eric Gagne, for instance) and I'm not sure Lidge had that.

On the other hand, Lincecum was far and away the best pitcher in the NL this year. He lead the league in strikeouts by a wide margin with 265 (three were tied in second with 206), was second in the league with a 2.62 ERA and a 72.5 VORP (behind our old friend Johan Santana, with 73.4), was second in the league with 18 wins (on a horrible Giants team and while Brandon Webb had 22, I have gone through the limitations of wins before and Webb isn't a contender outside of his win total), first in league in hits allowed (7.22/9), first in strikeout ratio (10.51/9), and first in adjusted ERA at 164.

There were some other fine contenders and one of those I should point out is Santana. Santana had only 16 wins, but suffered through seven blow saves and countless other head-pounding games with the Mets. Outside of that, he still lead the league in ERA, had 206 Ks, and had his usual second-half run of brilliance. He isn't Cy Young, but he deserves some praise.

Rookies of the Year: Evan Longeria, Tampa Bay Rays and Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs

I won't spend much time on these because neither are too hard of choices. Each pick was clearly the best rookie in their respective league. Both played particularly good defense for important positions (though catcher is more valuable than third-base) and each had standout statistics at the plate, with Longeria tallying 27 home runs and 85 RBI after starting the year in Triple-A and Soto having 23 home runs and 86 RBI. Honorable mentions go to Mike Aviles of the Royals and Joey Votto of the Reds.

My Postseason Awards

Well, I suppose now is as good a time as any to throw my hat into the ring with regards to the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year discussions. It's only one man's opinion, and I'm sure many will take issue with some of these selections, but ultimately it's all just fuel for the fire.

AL MVP

Joe Mauer: .328/.413/.451, 9 HR, 85 RBI, 98 R

This was a tough pick as no one stands out too much among a field of strong contenders for the award. Grady Sizemore and Kevin Youkilis are guys who should be in the running, but to me this race comes down to Mauer and Dustin Pedroia, a pair of great hitters at valuable defensive positions who helped propel their teams toward the postseason (although the Twins came up just short). Both players have their strong points, with Mauer holding a slight edge in batting average and a large edge in on-base percentage while Pedroia holds advantages in power and stolen bases. In the end, I lean toward Mauer because he plays superior defense at a more crucial defensive position. And because I'm a Twins fan. What of it?

NL MVP

Albert Pujols: .357/.462/.653, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 100 R

You'll hear a lot of talk about Ryan Howard, who led the league in home runs and RBI for the NL East champion Phillies. You'll hear some talk about Manny Ramirez, whose arrival in Los Angeles at the trade deadline gave the Dodgers the necessary jolt to reach the playoffs. You'll hear talk about Carlos Delgado, Ryan Braun, maybe even C.C. Sabathia. All this talk is misguided. Pujols was the most valuable player in the National League this year, and in my mind it's not even close. Look at those numbers. Pujols reached triple digits in RBI, runs and walks, he batted .357, and his OPS+ was 190. 190!!! That's a career high for a guy who has had a pretty unbelievable career. He also played some pretty solid defense at first base. The Cards finished fourth in the NL Central, but that has nothing to do with Pujols. There is no player in major-league baseball I'd rather build my team around. That's the definition of an MVP.

AL Cy Young

Cliff Lee: 223.3 IP, 22-3, 2.54 ERA, 170/34 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP

There's an argument to be made for Roy Halladay. He threw more innings, posted a better WHIP and strikeout rate, was a 20-game winner and faced tougher teams. But I think Lee edges him by a hair. He won 22 games and led the league in ERA, and the Indians went 24-7 in his starts.

NL Cy Young

Brad Lidge: 69.1 IP, 41 SV, 1.95 ERA, 92/35 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP

I suspect plenty of people will disagree with this selection. Tim Lincecum and Johan Santana are both very deserving candidates and I would have no problem with either winning the award. But I just can't get over the season Lidge had. He was perfect in save opportunities, converting 41-of-41, and posted a 1.95 ERA while allowing just two home runs in nearly 70 innings despite calling a very hitter-friendly stadium home. It's rare that a closer is deserving of Cy Young honors in a year where starting pitchers contributed 200-plus innings of outstanding work, but this seems like one such occasion.

AL Rookie of the Year

Evan Longoria: .272/.343/.531, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 67 R

No contest. In another year, Denard Span may have merited consideration. This year, Longoria was the class of the rookie crop. Had he avoided injury, he may have been a legit MVP candidate.

NL Rookie of the Year

Geovany Soto: .285/.364/.504, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 66 R

Not much doubt about this one in my mind. For a catcher to put up these types of numbers in his first big-league season is really impressive.

The Halfway Point

Last Saturday, the Twins played their 81st game of the season, a 5-1 loss to the Brewers. This marked the official halfway point of the 2008 campaign. Over the first half of the season, the Twins went 44-37, an improvement over last year's mark of 42-39. Today, we take a look at how this year's team performed through 81 games...

THE OFFENSE

The Twins hit .272/.327/.397 over their first 81 games, scoring 389 runs (4.8 R/G) and hitting 55 homers. Last year, the Twins had nearly identical production through the first 81 games, hitting .265/.332/.391 while scoring 388 runs and hitting 63 homers. Well it might appear that they've just treaded water, the team has actually improved offensively when you consider the context; there has been a league-wide drop in offense so this year's squad has been one of the better offenses in the league. As I mentioned yesterday, the team's success in scoring runs is largely due to some very strong numbers with runners in scoring position. It'll be hard to keep that up in the second half, so if the team doesn't start getting a bit more power production (which it very well could from the likes of Delmon Young, Brian Buscher and Michael Cuddyer), we could see a drop-off similar to the one experienced by the 2007 offense, which saw its average runs per game drop from 4.8 in the first half to 4.1 in the second half.

First Half Offensive MVP: Joe Mauer

-It's hard not to pick Justin Morneau here, because Morneau seemingly drove in over half the team's runs in the first half. Yet, I think the biggest key to the offense this year has been Mauer's ability to stay healthy and productive. He appeared in 73 of the team's 81 first-half games -- starting starting 68 of them -- and hit .322/.408/.441 while playing excellent defense at perhaps the most important position on the field. Last year, injuries limited Mauer to appear in only 50 first-half games (48 starts). It's been great to see him in the lineup nearly every night, taking great at-bats and getting on base at a fantastic clip.

THE PITCHING

Twins pitchers posted a 4.28 ERA over the first half. That's a dropoff from the 2007 team's 4.13, made more significant by the aforementioned drop in offense around the league. It's not all bad though. Since getting brutally battered over a four-game series against the White Sox in early June, the Twins posted a 3.35 ERA, which helped them rebound from that trainwreck of a series by going 13-5 in the following 18 games. While this year's rotation obviously lacks an ace to fill the shoes of Johan Santana, the four youngsters have all been relatively effective. Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey have looked like very solid No. 2 guys, while Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins have steadily provided solid outings. Blackburn and Perkins have not been flashy, but it's worth noting that the two combined have allowed more than three earned runs in an outing only seven times in 28 starts -- Livan Hernandez alone has done it nine times in 18 starts. Speaking of Hernandez, he's been, well, not as bad as he could be I suppose. I'll only briefly touch on the bullpen and say that they haven't been as good as in past years, but still get the job done for the most part. And Joe Nathan is amazing.

First Half Pitching MVP: Kevin Slowey

Picking between Slowey and Scott Baker was tough, and really you could go either way because they were just about equally effective in the first half. Both dealt with minor injuries early on, both made 11 starts and posted an ERA in the mid-to-upper 3s (3.96 for Slowey, 3.57 for Baker). Slowey had a slightly better walk rate (in fact, his BB/9IP rate of 1.11 would rank first in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify) while Baker posted the slightly better strikeout rate. I went with Slowey because his numbers are truly phenomenal outside of that bad start in Chicago, and Baker was the only starter fortunate enough to not pitch in that series, a slaughter-fest which inflated the numbers of virtually every pitcher on staff.

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Tonight's July 4 match-up: Livan Hernandez (.503 SLGA) vs. Paul Byrd (.507 SLGA). Ready for some fireworks?

Mosvick's Award Picks

Just as giving out grades is a somewhat lame method of postseason analysis, posting on the major-league awards can just as easily be construed as lame. However, I'd still like to weigh in with my opinions with another of my rare contributions to the blog from Virginia. After all, I have no excuse right now since I'm on fall break and am supposed to be relaxing. With that, here are the award winners as I see them:

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
There isn't really much of a debate here. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to argue against A-Rod deserving this honor. Rodriguez hit .314/.422/.645 with 54 HR, 156 RBI, 143 runs scored, 376 total bases, 85 extra-base hits, and 24 stolen bases. He posted an MLB-best 96.6 VORP as well as leading the league with 299 times on base and 166 runs created. With his season, he set records for third basemen in home runs, RBI, runs scored, and runs created. While A-Rod is struggling in the postseason, it has nothing to do with the MVP race. Magglio Ordonez was great for the Tigers, but a marginal outfielder who had an offensive season just below that of a good defender at third does not pass the bar.

NL MVP: Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies
Rollins had a stunning year at short, hitting .296/.344/.531 with 38 doubles, 20 triples, 30 home runs, 139 runs scored, 211, 41 stolen bases, and 380 total bases. If you go by VORP, Rollins doesn't appear to be the standout candidate. Rollins's VORP of 66.1 ranks 9th in the NL behind Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Chipper Jones, Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Chase Utley. Out of those players, Wright, Holliday, Fielder, and Utley seem like the standout MVP candidates. Ramirez, Pujols, and Cabrera were outstanding -- especially the underrated Ramirez who has a great bat but is a butcher at shortstop; however, they all played for losing teams.

Holliday and Wright are likely Rollins's biggest competition. While everyone believes Coors Field is an offensive haven, it's nothing compared to Rollins' home field of Citizens Bank Park. However, that didn't really affect Rollins, who hit ..293/.352/.507 in away games this year. Holliday's 92 extra-base hits, .340/.405/.607 line, and 386 total bases all rank above Rollins. However, as an outfielder, Holliday's defensive contribution (not factored into VORP) is nowhere near that of the phenomenal defense of Rollins at shortstop.

As for Wright, his season is a good comp for Rollins. Wright is young at 24, is constantly improving, and provides good defense at the hot corner. Wright hit .325/.416/.546 with 30 home runs, 107 RBI, and 34 stolen bases, all amazing numbers. Yet, while the arguments of intangibles are often lost on me, I believe it is in this vein that Rollins wins out. The Philadelphia shortstop's combination of speed, power, defense, and leadership is hard to beat any year especially in a year in which Rollins had one of just four 20-20-20-20 seasons all time.

AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians
As much as I detest the Indians (and especially Sabathia) as a Twins fan, it's just hard to pick against this guy. Sabathia's basic numbers were impressive enough, as he went 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA. However, his deeper numbers tell the story of why he should win. Sabathia's 209/37 K/BB ratio (5.65) is this second best all-time for a left-hander, behind Randy Johnson's 290/44 (6.59) in 2004. His 65.2 VORP ranks first for AL pitchers. He also ranked first in innings with 241 and fifth in WHIP (1.14).

Sabathia's main competition is his own teammate Fausto Carmona, along with the Angels' John Lackey, and Boston's Josh Beckett. Carmona has been largely eliminated despite his 3.06 ERA and 19 wins due to the fact that he's only struck out 137 and has walked 61 as well as having pitched fewer innings then Sabathia. Lackey could be eliminated for similar reasons, as his only real advantage over Sabathia is in ERA (a league-leading 3.01), while he pitched fewer innings (224), struck out fewer (179), and walked more (52). Beckett is probably considered Sabathia's major competition, simply because he has that all important 20th win that writers seem to love so much. However, while his 194/40 K/BB ratio is very good, Beckett threw significantly less innings (200 2/3), giving him less strikeouts (194) with a slightly higher ERA (3.27). He has a better BAA (.245 to Sabathia's .259) but overall, it does not seem enough to justify giving the award to Beckett over Sabathia.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres
This is just as easy as giving the AL MVP to A-Rod. Peavy won the NL pitching Triple Crown, leading the league in wins (19), ERA (2.54) and strikeouts (240). He also posted a league-leading WHIP (1.06) and OBA (.208). No one else was even close.

AL Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
Boston had two rookies everyone was excited about coming into this year from Japan, with most of the attention focused on Daisuke Matsuzaka. However, Dice-K had a fairly uneven year, as he showed the ability to strikeout hitters with 201 K in 204 2/3 innings yet posted a high ERA of 4.40 and ranked sixth in the AL with 80 walks. It was also thought that Alex Gordon would give good competition, but Gordon struggled for most of the year and guys like Jeremy Guthrie had significantly better rookie campaigns. However, it largely came down to a race between Kansas City's Brian Bannister and Pedroia.

Bannister pitched very well for the Royals, but Pedroia definitely had the superior year. His 317 average ranked 10th in the AL and he showed some power with 39 doubles and some decent patience with 47 walks while playing solid defense.

NL Rookie of the Year: Troy Tulowitzski, Colorado Rockies
This is a much harder race than the AL rookie race. Tulowitzski is joined by Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence as outstanding rookie candidates. Pence looked like the early front runner, hitting .343/.372/.593 in May and .314/.336/.542 in June before going down with an injury that kept him out of the lineup through the end of July and most of August. Pence's .322/.360/.539 was good and his 17 home runs showed lots of power potential, but his patience certainly leaves something to be desired. Pence also flashed a good glove in center field.

Braun, on the other hand, became the talk of baseball fast in June, as he hit .382/.435/.716 with 6 home runs and 21 RBI. Braun continued his massive pace, hitting .324/.370/.634 over all with 34 home runs and 97 RBI, setting an rookie record with his limited at-bats. However, Braun was also an absolute butcher at third, making 26 errors in 112 games at third.

That leaves Tulowitzski, who had a great year offensively and defensively. As a defender, Tulowitzski had the most putouts by a shortstop since Ozzie Smith. Offensively, Tulowitzski certainly benefited from Coors Field, hitting .326/.392/.568 while hitting .291/.359/.479 overall. Despite the home field advantage, Tulowitzski's 24 home runs broke the National League record for home runs by a rookie shortstop, passing Ernie Banks, and it ranks third behind Cal Ripken and Nomar Garciaparra all-time. Just as well, Tulowitzski's 104 runs scored and 99 RBI are impressive for an shortstop. More importantly, Tulowizski was able to help shape the entire Rockies season, playing 155 games and helping to lead them ultimately to the National League Championship Series.