When the Twins acquired Carl Pavano in August of 2009, his fastball was averaging almost 91 miles per hour and he was striking out 16 percent of the batters he faced. In two seasons since, his velocity has dropped by two miles per hour and his K-rate has descended steadily, to 13 percent in 2010 and 11 percent in 2011.
Among qualifying major-league starters, only Brad Penny had a lower K/9 mark last year than Pavano's 4.1. A lack of whiffs isn't necessarily a death knell, especially when you can limit walks and homers, and Pavano's propensity for pitching to contact has helped him efficiently rack up 220 innings in consecutive years, but in order to succeed with this style a pitcher needs help from his defense and a certain measure of luck.
Last year Pavano didn't benefit much in those areas; nor did his staff mates, as the Twins finished with the worst defensive efficiency (converting batted balls into outs) in all of baseball. While the club's fielding is expected to improve this season, it would take a rather drastic turnaround for it to be considered a strength.
Pavano has been a fairly extreme ground ball pitcher in each of the past two years, so infield defense will likely be a key factor in his success. Around the diamond, the Twins will be relying on a third baseman who was repeatedly scolded for his passive defensive approach last year, a shortstop who's 38 and spent much of his career as a utility man, a mistake-prone second baseman with a reputation for losing focus, and a first baseman who's looked foggy in the field since being concussed.
In other words, if Pavano's strikeout rate continues to slide, it's a good bet that he'll once again rank among the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball. He may be able to overcome that and hold value as a serviceable innings eater, but it's not a label you want attached to your Opening Day starter and de facto No. 1.
The Twins have plenty of uncertainty in their 2012 rotation, so more than ever they'll be counting on Pavano -- whose 443 innings over the past two years lead all Twins pitchers by more than 100 -- to be that veteran rock. In order to to excel, it is essential that he take matters into his own hands and find a way to start missing a few more bats.
Showing posts with label rotation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rotation. Show all posts
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
Dangerous Gambles in the Rotation
Teams generally enter every season with a few question marks in the rotation. The Twins, unfortunately, look like they'll head into the 2012 campaign with five.
With each starter slated to occupy a spot in Minnesota's rotation, there is a fair amount of upside and also significant downside. At this point there's no way to know which versions of these various Jekyll-and-Hyde acts we'll be seeing, so all we can do is hope that the Twins can come up heads more often than tails as they seek to improve on a league-worst pitching performance in 2011.
Carl Pavano has officially been tabbed as Opening Day starter – an honor that he's earned since he's the only member of this unit who threw more than 150 innings last year. In 2010 he was a highly effective innings-eater and arguably the most valuable starter on a 94-win team. Last year his results were thoroughly mediocre as he allowed more hits than any other pitcher in the league.
Heads, he remembers how to miss a few extra bats and returns to the form he showed while winning 17 games two years ago. Tails, his performance continues to descend as he ages into his late 30s.
Francisco Liriano was stellar in 2010, picking up Cy Young votes while striking out 200 hitters and earning a Game 1 ALDS start. Last year his ERA never dropped below 4.59 as he battled injuries and control issues that plagued him right up until the end of the campaign.
Heads, he regains his fastball command and helps power the top of a solid rotation. Tails, the problems that haunted him in 2011 remain present, leading to continued inconsistency and frustration before the non-competitive Twins trade him for peanuts at the deadline.
Scott Baker is the only member of this bunch who actually took care of business in 2011, and naturally his season was cut short by persisting elbow problems. Though his first-half success made him a borderline All-Star, he threw only 24 innings after the break.
Heads, Baker finally shrugs off the arm troubles that have plagued him intermittently throughout the past two seasons to pile up 200 frames for the first time since 2009. Tails, his elbow keeps on barking and limits him once again, perhaps leading to surgery.
Nick Blackburn has been a reliable, mid-rotation workhorse when healthy, hurling 400 innings with a 4.04 ERA between 2008 and 2009. Sadly, he hasn't been able to stay healthy since, and recently underwent arm surgery for a second consecutive offseason.
Heads, Blackburn overcomes his flaws and serves as an average, yet valuable, anchor in the No. 4 spot. Tails, the hits keep on coming and he struggles to another shortened and substandard campaign.
Finally, Jason Marquis is the newcomer in this equation. If he repeated his 4.43 ERA posted with the Nats last year, he'd be a decent enough fifth starter. But a 4.55 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the course of a career that's been spent entirely in the inferior NL don't bode well.
Heads, Marquis proves to be a serviceable piece at the end of the rotation, perhaps until a better option emerges in the minors. Tails, he follows the path of former bargain bin veterans like Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez, dropping before the season's halfway through.
It's not often that you see someone flip heads five times in a row, but it happens, and if these five could live up to their potential the Twins would boast a very respectable starting corps.
Unfortunately, these coins appear to be weighted, and not in a good way. Pavano is in the twilight of his career. Liriano had a discouraging run in winter ball. Baker hasn't really been healthy since '09, and neither has Blackburn. Marquis just ain't very good.
I rue the thought of the Twins pitching staff giving up 800-plus runs again this year, and I'm holding out hope that they can turn things around drastically. Given the talent present, it's certain possible.
But I wouldn't bet on those odds. Would you?
With each starter slated to occupy a spot in Minnesota's rotation, there is a fair amount of upside and also significant downside. At this point there's no way to know which versions of these various Jekyll-and-Hyde acts we'll be seeing, so all we can do is hope that the Twins can come up heads more often than tails as they seek to improve on a league-worst pitching performance in 2011.
Carl Pavano has officially been tabbed as Opening Day starter – an honor that he's earned since he's the only member of this unit who threw more than 150 innings last year. In 2010 he was a highly effective innings-eater and arguably the most valuable starter on a 94-win team. Last year his results were thoroughly mediocre as he allowed more hits than any other pitcher in the league.
Heads, he remembers how to miss a few extra bats and returns to the form he showed while winning 17 games two years ago. Tails, his performance continues to descend as he ages into his late 30s.
Francisco Liriano was stellar in 2010, picking up Cy Young votes while striking out 200 hitters and earning a Game 1 ALDS start. Last year his ERA never dropped below 4.59 as he battled injuries and control issues that plagued him right up until the end of the campaign.
Heads, he regains his fastball command and helps power the top of a solid rotation. Tails, the problems that haunted him in 2011 remain present, leading to continued inconsistency and frustration before the non-competitive Twins trade him for peanuts at the deadline.
Scott Baker is the only member of this bunch who actually took care of business in 2011, and naturally his season was cut short by persisting elbow problems. Though his first-half success made him a borderline All-Star, he threw only 24 innings after the break.
Heads, Baker finally shrugs off the arm troubles that have plagued him intermittently throughout the past two seasons to pile up 200 frames for the first time since 2009. Tails, his elbow keeps on barking and limits him once again, perhaps leading to surgery.
Nick Blackburn has been a reliable, mid-rotation workhorse when healthy, hurling 400 innings with a 4.04 ERA between 2008 and 2009. Sadly, he hasn't been able to stay healthy since, and recently underwent arm surgery for a second consecutive offseason.
Heads, Blackburn overcomes his flaws and serves as an average, yet valuable, anchor in the No. 4 spot. Tails, the hits keep on coming and he struggles to another shortened and substandard campaign.
Finally, Jason Marquis is the newcomer in this equation. If he repeated his 4.43 ERA posted with the Nats last year, he'd be a decent enough fifth starter. But a 4.55 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the course of a career that's been spent entirely in the inferior NL don't bode well.
Heads, Marquis proves to be a serviceable piece at the end of the rotation, perhaps until a better option emerges in the minors. Tails, he follows the path of former bargain bin veterans like Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez, dropping before the season's halfway through.
It's not often that you see someone flip heads five times in a row, but it happens, and if these five could live up to their potential the Twins would boast a very respectable starting corps.
Unfortunately, these coins appear to be weighted, and not in a good way. Pavano is in the twilight of his career. Liriano had a discouraging run in winter ball. Baker hasn't really been healthy since '09, and neither has Blackburn. Marquis just ain't very good.
I rue the thought of the Twins pitching staff giving up 800-plus runs again this year, and I'm holding out hope that they can turn things around drastically. Given the talent present, it's certain possible.
But I wouldn't bet on those odds. Would you?
Monday, January 09, 2012
Is Nick Blackburn Undervalued?
One couldn't be blamed for writing off Nick Blackburn as an afterthought in the Twins' 2012 starting pitching equation.
After all, he's been pretty bad over the past two seasons. In fact, "pretty bad" might be an understatement – he's been one of baseball's most hittable pitchers, prone to stretches of mind-numbingly horrible performance. His once-premier walk rate has deteriorated into mediocrity, leaving him with little in the way of strengths to fall back on.
So it's easy to forget the fact that, prior to 2010, Blackburn was a pretty dang valuable pitcher. After emerging as a legitimate prospect in 2007, he became a staple in the Twins' rotation, hurling around 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009.
After that '09 campaign, the Twins signed Blackburn to a four-year extension worth $14 million. It was a totally unnecessary move that has unsurprisingly backfired, but there was valid reason for the club's faith in the right-hander. Over that two-year stretch, Blackburn was indisputably their most reliable starting pitcher.
Yes, he has been mostly a mess over the past two seasons, and there's a temptation to profile those struggles as symptomatic of his non-dominant, pitch-to-contact approach. But that was the same style he employed while serving as a steady boon amidst the rotation in his first two seasons.
Indeed, his troubles in 2010 and 2011 have very likely stemmed from health issues more than anything else. And while that's not reason to excuse them, it's a fact that should provide fans with hope that he can return to form if his latest surgery takes.
In his first year at Target Field, Blackburn finished with a 5.42 ERA and career-low 3.8 K/9 rate over 161 innings. Ugly numbers, to be sure, but after the season it was revealed that he had (perhaps foolishly) been pitching through elbow discomfort for much of the year. Shortly after the Twins were ousted from the playoffs, he underwent minor surgery on the elbow.
Early on in 2011, Blackburn appeared to have returned to form. Over the first three months of the season, he looked as good as ever, turning in a 3.64 ERA over 101 innings. He was on pace for another solid 200-inning campaign, but things quickly derailed around the halfway point; after the start of July, Blackburn made only 10 more starts, posting a 6.32 ERA over 47 innings while allowing 70 hits and 26 walks.
The sagging control stood out as the most worrisome red flag for the righty, who even during his rough spells had traditionally thrown the ball over the plate. After issuing four walks while recording just four outs against the Yankees on August 21st, Blackburn was pulled and shut down for the season. He'd later be diagnosed with an entrapped nerve in his forearm, for which he underwent surgery in late September.
This procedure was more serious than the one in 2010, as it left Blackburn in a splint for six weeks, but he's expected to be ready for spring training. He'll be one of several question marks among the club's starting pitching crop this year, but it's important to bear in mind that when he's been healthy, Blackburn has been a legitimate asset to the rotation.
His $4.75 million salary – guaranteed as the result of that misguided extension inked two years ago – currently looks like a liability. But it's entirely possible that by the end of the season, it'll look like a solid bargain.
Like with so many other Twins players this year, it will all come down to health.
After all, he's been pretty bad over the past two seasons. In fact, "pretty bad" might be an understatement – he's been one of baseball's most hittable pitchers, prone to stretches of mind-numbingly horrible performance. His once-premier walk rate has deteriorated into mediocrity, leaving him with little in the way of strengths to fall back on.
So it's easy to forget the fact that, prior to 2010, Blackburn was a pretty dang valuable pitcher. After emerging as a legitimate prospect in 2007, he became a staple in the Twins' rotation, hurling around 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009.
After that '09 campaign, the Twins signed Blackburn to a four-year extension worth $14 million. It was a totally unnecessary move that has unsurprisingly backfired, but there was valid reason for the club's faith in the right-hander. Over that two-year stretch, Blackburn was indisputably their most reliable starting pitcher.
Yes, he has been mostly a mess over the past two seasons, and there's a temptation to profile those struggles as symptomatic of his non-dominant, pitch-to-contact approach. But that was the same style he employed while serving as a steady boon amidst the rotation in his first two seasons.
Indeed, his troubles in 2010 and 2011 have very likely stemmed from health issues more than anything else. And while that's not reason to excuse them, it's a fact that should provide fans with hope that he can return to form if his latest surgery takes.
In his first year at Target Field, Blackburn finished with a 5.42 ERA and career-low 3.8 K/9 rate over 161 innings. Ugly numbers, to be sure, but after the season it was revealed that he had (perhaps foolishly) been pitching through elbow discomfort for much of the year. Shortly after the Twins were ousted from the playoffs, he underwent minor surgery on the elbow.
Early on in 2011, Blackburn appeared to have returned to form. Over the first three months of the season, he looked as good as ever, turning in a 3.64 ERA over 101 innings. He was on pace for another solid 200-inning campaign, but things quickly derailed around the halfway point; after the start of July, Blackburn made only 10 more starts, posting a 6.32 ERA over 47 innings while allowing 70 hits and 26 walks.
The sagging control stood out as the most worrisome red flag for the righty, who even during his rough spells had traditionally thrown the ball over the plate. After issuing four walks while recording just four outs against the Yankees on August 21st, Blackburn was pulled and shut down for the season. He'd later be diagnosed with an entrapped nerve in his forearm, for which he underwent surgery in late September.
This procedure was more serious than the one in 2010, as it left Blackburn in a splint for six weeks, but he's expected to be ready for spring training. He'll be one of several question marks among the club's starting pitching crop this year, but it's important to bear in mind that when he's been healthy, Blackburn has been a legitimate asset to the rotation.
His $4.75 million salary – guaranteed as the result of that misguided extension inked two years ago – currently looks like a liability. But it's entirely possible that by the end of the season, it'll look like a solid bargain.
Like with so many other Twins players this year, it will all come down to health.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Options for the Rotation
On Monday, I wrote about the Twins' search for pitching help, pointing out that an inability to miss bats was a huge weakness for the staff in 2011 -- one which Terry Ryan should seek to remedy.
It's not realistic to expect the Twins to add a dominant strikeout machine to the mix, because there really aren't any available in free agency and acquiring one through trade would prove too costly.
But that doesn't mean they need to settle for someone like Jeff Francis or Jon Garland, who would qualify as the exact opposite of a "strikeout machine." Between Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak and Terry Doyle, the Twins have plenty of rotation candidates who can take the mound, throw the ball over the plate and let opposing hitters put it in play.
If they want to beef up their rotation rather than simply crowding it with more of the same, they'll need to identify at least one arm that breaks the pitch-to-contact mold. Here are a few available options that intrigue me:
Edwin Jackson
Jackson is a power arm in the sense that he throws hard, with a fastball that averages almost 95 mph and a slider in the upper 80s, but his results have never matched his high-velocity stuff. This past season, Jackson notched 148 strikeouts in 199 2/3 innings -- good for a 6.7 K/9 rate that matches his career mark and is roughly average.
With that being said, an average strikeout rate would stand out among Minnesota's crop of starters, and the 28-year-old has averaged 200 innings over the past four seasons. He's the cream of the remaining FA crop, but may elude the Twins' price range unless they're willing to push closer to $110 million.
Rich Harden
I mentioned Harden in Monday's post as a prime example of a high-risk, high-reward arm that could fit into a ~$100 million budget. He's got an electric arm, and this year with the A's was able to tally 91 strikeouts in 82 2/3 innings, but injuries have been a constant issue for the right-hander. He signed with Oakland last winter to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million plus incentives; there would be plenty of wisdom in offering a similar contract this year.
Harden is still only 30 years old, and if he can find a way to stay healthy he's got huge upside, especially in Target Field. If he'd be willing, a switch to the bullpen is an option that might aid his durability, and would solve the club's need for a hard-throwing right-hander in the late innings.
Javier Vazquez
While playing for the Marlins this past season, Vazquez made it sound like he was dead-set on retiring at the end of the year. By November, he appeared to have softened his stance, telling Ken Rosenthal that he was "50-50" on playing again in 2012.
Luring the 35-year-old righty back for another year might be a tall task, especially in Minnesota as Rosenthal noted that Vazquez had a strong preference to remain on the East Coast if he hung around. If the Twins could make it happen, though, there's tons of appeal in a guy who has averaged 8 K/9 over the course of this career and turned in a 3.69 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 192 2/3 innings with Florida in 2011.
Hiroki Kuroda
It's not clear whether Kuroda intends to play in the majors next year or return to Japan. There's been little buzz surrounding the free agent right-hander, and the Diamondbacks reportedly had an offer to him on the table for over 10 days before moving on and signing Jason Kubel earlier this week.
Kuroda has been consistently effective over his four-year major league career, accumulating a 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. In 2011, he set career bests with a 3.07 ERA in 202 innings. He also averaged over seven strikeouts per nine frames for a second straight year. He'll turn 37 in February, but if he's willing to sign a one-year deal, Kuroda would be a good addition at almost any price.
Jon Niese
Unlike the four hurlers mentioned above, Niese is not a free agent. There have been rumblings that the Mets could make him available in a trade, though, and if that's the case, the Twins would be wise to make a push.
Niese is 25, and 2012 will be his first year of arbitration eligibility. Although his 4.39 career ERA appears rather mediocre on the surface, Niese is a left-hander who can command the strike zone, miss bats and induce ground balls. Given that the Twins are in a state of flux with their roster, I'm against the notion of trading valuable assets for short-term help, but Niese could be a long-term building block and would justify the cost as long as it's not exorbitant.
It's not realistic to expect the Twins to add a dominant strikeout machine to the mix, because there really aren't any available in free agency and acquiring one through trade would prove too costly.
But that doesn't mean they need to settle for someone like Jeff Francis or Jon Garland, who would qualify as the exact opposite of a "strikeout machine." Between Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak and Terry Doyle, the Twins have plenty of rotation candidates who can take the mound, throw the ball over the plate and let opposing hitters put it in play.
If they want to beef up their rotation rather than simply crowding it with more of the same, they'll need to identify at least one arm that breaks the pitch-to-contact mold. Here are a few available options that intrigue me:
Edwin Jackson
Jackson is a power arm in the sense that he throws hard, with a fastball that averages almost 95 mph and a slider in the upper 80s, but his results have never matched his high-velocity stuff. This past season, Jackson notched 148 strikeouts in 199 2/3 innings -- good for a 6.7 K/9 rate that matches his career mark and is roughly average.
With that being said, an average strikeout rate would stand out among Minnesota's crop of starters, and the 28-year-old has averaged 200 innings over the past four seasons. He's the cream of the remaining FA crop, but may elude the Twins' price range unless they're willing to push closer to $110 million.
Rich Harden
I mentioned Harden in Monday's post as a prime example of a high-risk, high-reward arm that could fit into a ~$100 million budget. He's got an electric arm, and this year with the A's was able to tally 91 strikeouts in 82 2/3 innings, but injuries have been a constant issue for the right-hander. He signed with Oakland last winter to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million plus incentives; there would be plenty of wisdom in offering a similar contract this year.
Harden is still only 30 years old, and if he can find a way to stay healthy he's got huge upside, especially in Target Field. If he'd be willing, a switch to the bullpen is an option that might aid his durability, and would solve the club's need for a hard-throwing right-hander in the late innings.
Javier Vazquez
While playing for the Marlins this past season, Vazquez made it sound like he was dead-set on retiring at the end of the year. By November, he appeared to have softened his stance, telling Ken Rosenthal that he was "50-50" on playing again in 2012.
Luring the 35-year-old righty back for another year might be a tall task, especially in Minnesota as Rosenthal noted that Vazquez had a strong preference to remain on the East Coast if he hung around. If the Twins could make it happen, though, there's tons of appeal in a guy who has averaged 8 K/9 over the course of this career and turned in a 3.69 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 192 2/3 innings with Florida in 2011.
Hiroki Kuroda
It's not clear whether Kuroda intends to play in the majors next year or return to Japan. There's been little buzz surrounding the free agent right-hander, and the Diamondbacks reportedly had an offer to him on the table for over 10 days before moving on and signing Jason Kubel earlier this week.
Kuroda has been consistently effective over his four-year major league career, accumulating a 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. In 2011, he set career bests with a 3.07 ERA in 202 innings. He also averaged over seven strikeouts per nine frames for a second straight year. He'll turn 37 in February, but if he's willing to sign a one-year deal, Kuroda would be a good addition at almost any price.
Jon Niese
Unlike the four hurlers mentioned above, Niese is not a free agent. There have been rumblings that the Mets could make him available in a trade, though, and if that's the case, the Twins would be wise to make a push.
Niese is 25, and 2012 will be his first year of arbitration eligibility. Although his 4.39 career ERA appears rather mediocre on the surface, Niese is a left-hander who can command the strike zone, miss bats and induce ground balls. Given that the Twins are in a state of flux with their roster, I'm against the notion of trading valuable assets for short-term help, but Niese could be a long-term building block and would justify the cost as long as it's not exorbitant.
Monday, December 19, 2011
More of the Same
Twins pitchers struck out a total of 940 hitters in 2011. That was the fewest of any team in the majors by a margin of 84 (Cleveland finished with 1,024) -- the biggest gap between any other two teams was 33.
Yes, the Twins were the least prolific strikeout team in baseball this year, and it wasn't remotely close. The whiff total was the franchise's lowest since 1999, which meant a whole lot of balls being put into play by opposing hitters. A contact-heavy staff, in conjunction with truly shoddy defense, led to horrible results as the Twins allowed more runs and hits than all but one team.
The club's fielding is bound to improve in 2012, but a sky-high contact rate will continue to be an issue if not addressed. Unfortunately, if reports are to be believed, the Twins don't seem to recognize it as a problem.
With Jason Kubel likely to land elsewhere this week, Joe Christensen reports that the team is focused on adding pitching. However, as Christensen notes, three names that have been connected to the Twins in rumors are Jeff Francis, Joel Pineiro and Jon Garland.
Francis is a control guy coming off a season in which he logged 183 innings, which would have ranked second on the Twins. However, he notched only 91 strikeouts, good for a paltry 4.5 K/9 rate.
Pineiro was very good in 2009 and 2010 before struggling to a 5.13 ERA in 2011, and at 33 he's a decent bet to rebound. But he's posted a K/9 figure above 5 only once in the past four seasons and this year finished at 3.8. Yuck.
Garland is a veteran with a history as a workhorse (he piled up 190-plus innings every year from 2002 to 2010) but his career K/9 rate is 4.9.
The Twins are working on a limited budget and if they're looking for guys who are good bets to throw a bunch of innings, they're basically limited to these low-upside, fringe-stuff types.
If they're willing to take a risk, though, a guy like Rich Harden could probably be had at a reasonable price, and if he can find a way to stay healthy he would add a very different dynamic to a roster filled with light-throwing hurlers in the pitch-to-contact mold.
It's not that pitchers can't succeed without tons of strikeouts, but a staff devoid of any power arms isn't a good bet to garner effective results, especially against the league's better lineups. Within his limited resources, Terry Ryan should be seeking to fundamentally change a pitching corps that failed miserably this season.
Francis, Pineiro and Garland are just more of the same, and at best lateral steps from the likes of Kevin Slowey and Brian Duensing.
Yes, the Twins were the least prolific strikeout team in baseball this year, and it wasn't remotely close. The whiff total was the franchise's lowest since 1999, which meant a whole lot of balls being put into play by opposing hitters. A contact-heavy staff, in conjunction with truly shoddy defense, led to horrible results as the Twins allowed more runs and hits than all but one team.
The club's fielding is bound to improve in 2012, but a sky-high contact rate will continue to be an issue if not addressed. Unfortunately, if reports are to be believed, the Twins don't seem to recognize it as a problem.
With Jason Kubel likely to land elsewhere this week, Joe Christensen reports that the team is focused on adding pitching. However, as Christensen notes, three names that have been connected to the Twins in rumors are Jeff Francis, Joel Pineiro and Jon Garland.
Francis is a control guy coming off a season in which he logged 183 innings, which would have ranked second on the Twins. However, he notched only 91 strikeouts, good for a paltry 4.5 K/9 rate.
Pineiro was very good in 2009 and 2010 before struggling to a 5.13 ERA in 2011, and at 33 he's a decent bet to rebound. But he's posted a K/9 figure above 5 only once in the past four seasons and this year finished at 3.8. Yuck.
Garland is a veteran with a history as a workhorse (he piled up 190-plus innings every year from 2002 to 2010) but his career K/9 rate is 4.9.
The Twins are working on a limited budget and if they're looking for guys who are good bets to throw a bunch of innings, they're basically limited to these low-upside, fringe-stuff types.
If they're willing to take a risk, though, a guy like Rich Harden could probably be had at a reasonable price, and if he can find a way to stay healthy he would add a very different dynamic to a roster filled with light-throwing hurlers in the pitch-to-contact mold.
It's not that pitchers can't succeed without tons of strikeouts, but a staff devoid of any power arms isn't a good bet to garner effective results, especially against the league's better lineups. Within his limited resources, Terry Ryan should be seeking to fundamentally change a pitching corps that failed miserably this season.
Francis, Pineiro and Garland are just more of the same, and at best lateral steps from the likes of Kevin Slowey and Brian Duensing.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Rocky Rotation
After coughing up seven runs on nine hits while recording just six outs against one of the league's worst teams last night, Brian Duensing now owns a 5.12 ERA on the season, including 7.42 since the All-Star break. Right-handed hitters, who were slugging .546 against Duensing entering the contest (a mark that would rank 11th in all of baseball for a hitter), ripped five more extra-base hits against him in the disastrous outing.
The Twins are asking for trouble if they're figuring Duensing into their future plans as a starter at this point. The problem is, the same can be said about nearly every member of their rotation.
Nick Blackburn may have dodged a bullet with his latest arm injury, but his deteriorating command and his 6.32 ERA since the start of July must have the team wondering how much they can rely on him, especially after a substandard 2010 campaign.
Francisco Liriano owns a 4.85 ERA this season and hasn't been able to settle into a prolonged groove. Carl Pavano has allowed the most hits in baseball.
All of these starters are under team control for next year, but with the way things have played out this summer, can any of them be counted on to be even quality mid-rotation options for a contender?
Kyle Gibson, whom the club almost surely had in their plans for next year, may end up needing Tommy John surgery, which would put him on the shelf until 2013.
Scott Baker, the only Twins hurler whose performance has been good enough that you could feel comfortable penciling him into next year's starting five, continues to battle elbow problems that have plagued him since last year, raising long-term doubts about the durability of his arm.
The wide array of issues circling the Twins' rotation creates plenty of questions, but also makes three things crystal clear as we look ahead to next year:
1. Kevin Slowey must be retained.
I'm sure the Twins would like nothing more than to part ways with the embattled righty, but right now that doesn't look like a luxury they can afford. Entering his final year of arbitration, Slowey will likely cost only half what a starting pitcher of comparable ability would command on the open market. He's necessary depth.
2. Liriano also must be kept.
Liriano is making $4.3 million this year and will get a raise in arbitration. Are the Twins willing to pay that price for a pitcher coming off such a tumultuous year? Undoubtedly they'll be listening to offers for Liriano this winter, but in their position they'd be wise to hang onto the frustrating southpaw and hope for the best. He's the most talented starting pitcher they have, and you bet on talent above all else.
3. Seek a starter with some upside who can miss bats.
Even if Baker is healthy entering next season, you're counting on the reliably unreliable Liriano and a bunch of a extremely hittable strike-throwers to comprise the rest of your rotation. That's just not a recipe for conquering the Yankees or Red Sox in the playoffs. The Twins need to identify a pitcher who has demonstrated the ability to dominate. The list of pending free agents includes Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Chris Young and Rich Harden. Maybe you get brave and take a shot at Wandy Rodriguez. Take a risk, and break the mold. After a season like this, the status quo is not acceptable.
The Twins are asking for trouble if they're figuring Duensing into their future plans as a starter at this point. The problem is, the same can be said about nearly every member of their rotation.
Nick Blackburn may have dodged a bullet with his latest arm injury, but his deteriorating command and his 6.32 ERA since the start of July must have the team wondering how much they can rely on him, especially after a substandard 2010 campaign.
Francisco Liriano owns a 4.85 ERA this season and hasn't been able to settle into a prolonged groove. Carl Pavano has allowed the most hits in baseball.
All of these starters are under team control for next year, but with the way things have played out this summer, can any of them be counted on to be even quality mid-rotation options for a contender?
Kyle Gibson, whom the club almost surely had in their plans for next year, may end up needing Tommy John surgery, which would put him on the shelf until 2013.
Scott Baker, the only Twins hurler whose performance has been good enough that you could feel comfortable penciling him into next year's starting five, continues to battle elbow problems that have plagued him since last year, raising long-term doubts about the durability of his arm.
The wide array of issues circling the Twins' rotation creates plenty of questions, but also makes three things crystal clear as we look ahead to next year:
1. Kevin Slowey must be retained.
I'm sure the Twins would like nothing more than to part ways with the embattled righty, but right now that doesn't look like a luxury they can afford. Entering his final year of arbitration, Slowey will likely cost only half what a starting pitcher of comparable ability would command on the open market. He's necessary depth.
2. Liriano also must be kept.
Liriano is making $4.3 million this year and will get a raise in arbitration. Are the Twins willing to pay that price for a pitcher coming off such a tumultuous year? Undoubtedly they'll be listening to offers for Liriano this winter, but in their position they'd be wise to hang onto the frustrating southpaw and hope for the best. He's the most talented starting pitcher they have, and you bet on talent above all else.
3. Seek a starter with some upside who can miss bats.
Even if Baker is healthy entering next season, you're counting on the reliably unreliable Liriano and a bunch of a extremely hittable strike-throwers to comprise the rest of your rotation. That's just not a recipe for conquering the Yankees or Red Sox in the playoffs. The Twins need to identify a pitcher who has demonstrated the ability to dominate. The list of pending free agents includes Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Chris Young and Rich Harden. Maybe you get brave and take a shot at Wandy Rodriguez. Take a risk, and break the mold. After a season like this, the status quo is not acceptable.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
A Chance For Redemption
Scott Baker has been the only exception to the starting rotation's funk since the season's halfway point. His departure to the DL due to continued elbow soreness leaves behind a rather unimpressive bunch.
Here are the remaining Twins starters' marks in ERA and WHIP since the beginning of July:
Brian Duensing: 4.30 ERA / 1.33 WHIP
Francisco Liriano: 5.04 ERA / 1.66 WHIP
Carl Pavano: 5.84 ERA / 1.46 WHIP
Nick Blackburn: 7.34 ERA / 2.03 WHIP
Duensing is pacing the group with his average numbers, and from there it just deteriorates, with Blackburn -- who has amazingly allowed an average of two base runners per inning over his past seven starts -- serving as the anchor.
In other words, the bar is not set very high for Kevin Slowey.
Recalled to fill Baker's vacant rotation spot, Slowey will start in Cleveland on Sunday. I said at the beginning of the month that I felt it was "time to set this rift aside and let Slowey help the Twins again," so I'm pleased he's getting an opportunity.
And, while Twins fans might find this a sad fact, all Slowey needs to do is pitch up to his mediocre career norms (4.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP) and he's got a chance to be the team's best starter from here on out. Given the uncertainties that currently surround the health statuses of Baker and Kyle Gibson, not to mention the competence of Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn, trading Slowey might be a luxury the Twins can no longer afford.
If the embattled righty can pitch well down the stretch and rebuild bridges with his coaches and teammates, it would provide a meaningful positive development as this mercilessly awful season winds down.
Here are the remaining Twins starters' marks in ERA and WHIP since the beginning of July:
Brian Duensing: 4.30 ERA / 1.33 WHIP
Francisco Liriano: 5.04 ERA / 1.66 WHIP
Carl Pavano: 5.84 ERA / 1.46 WHIP
Nick Blackburn: 7.34 ERA / 2.03 WHIP
Duensing is pacing the group with his average numbers, and from there it just deteriorates, with Blackburn -- who has amazingly allowed an average of two base runners per inning over his past seven starts -- serving as the anchor.
In other words, the bar is not set very high for Kevin Slowey.
Recalled to fill Baker's vacant rotation spot, Slowey will start in Cleveland on Sunday. I said at the beginning of the month that I felt it was "time to set this rift aside and let Slowey help the Twins again," so I'm pleased he's getting an opportunity.
And, while Twins fans might find this a sad fact, all Slowey needs to do is pitch up to his mediocre career norms (4.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP) and he's got a chance to be the team's best starter from here on out. Given the uncertainties that currently surround the health statuses of Baker and Kyle Gibson, not to mention the competence of Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn, trading Slowey might be a luxury the Twins can no longer afford.
If the embattled righty can pitch well down the stretch and rebuild bridges with his coaches and teammates, it would provide a meaningful positive development as this mercilessly awful season winds down.
Thursday, August 04, 2011
Pavano and Blackburn: Contact Kings
Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn haven't had particularly memorable seasons up to this point, but at least they do find themselves atop the American League leader board in one category: hits allowed.
Pavano has yielded 168 knocks this season, more than any other AL hurler. Blackburn, with 158, comes in second.
Hey, it's something, right?
The rate at which these two pitchers have given up hits should come as no huge surprise, as both have been quite hittable throughout their respective careers. In 2009, Blackburn led the AL with 240 hits allowed while Pavano checked in third at 235. Last year, Pavano ranked fourth at 227 and Blackburn (limited to only 161 innings due to injury and a minor-league demotion) ranked 15th, allowing the same number of hits as Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez (194) in 88 fewer innings.
There's no mystery as to why Pavano and Blackburn are coughing up hits with such generosity. Pavano's 3.7 K/9 rate is the lowest in all of baseball, while Blackburn's rate of 4.8 (which would actually be the best of his career) is the ninth-worst in the AL.
The Twins continue to preach pitching to contact as if it's some generally desirable trait, but the truth is that exorbitant contact rates are these pitchers' greatest downfalls. It's exceedingly difficult to find sustained success while giving up hits at a higher clip than almost any other pitcher in baseball, and while Pavano and Blackburn ease their burden by limiting walks, it's difficult to expect anything better than back-of-the-rotation mediocrity unless they run through a prolonged period of good luck (as Pavano did through the first four months or so last year).
It's a rule of thumb in baseball that about 3 out of every 10 balls put in play will turn into a hit. In his eye-opening article for Baseball Nation yesterday, Jeff Sullivan found that, since 1970, even position players who have taken to the mound have registered a .296 BABIP.
By letting hitters put almost everything in play, you walk a dangerous line, and we've been reminded of that over these last several weeks. Since the start of July, Pavano owns a 6.87 ERA and Blackburn is at 7.45. These performances have contributed to a screeching halt in momentum for a rotation that looked spectacular in June.
Pavano and Blackburn have both certainly proven that they are capable of succeeding in spite of their heavy contact tendencies, but it should be intuitively obvious that it's not a reliable recipe for sustained success.
The two are under contract next year for a combined $13.25 million. It's more than likely that they'll once again be two of the most hittable pitchers in the majors.
You reap what you sow, I guess.
Pavano has yielded 168 knocks this season, more than any other AL hurler. Blackburn, with 158, comes in second.
Hey, it's something, right?
The rate at which these two pitchers have given up hits should come as no huge surprise, as both have been quite hittable throughout their respective careers. In 2009, Blackburn led the AL with 240 hits allowed while Pavano checked in third at 235. Last year, Pavano ranked fourth at 227 and Blackburn (limited to only 161 innings due to injury and a minor-league demotion) ranked 15th, allowing the same number of hits as Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez (194) in 88 fewer innings.
There's no mystery as to why Pavano and Blackburn are coughing up hits with such generosity. Pavano's 3.7 K/9 rate is the lowest in all of baseball, while Blackburn's rate of 4.8 (which would actually be the best of his career) is the ninth-worst in the AL.
The Twins continue to preach pitching to contact as if it's some generally desirable trait, but the truth is that exorbitant contact rates are these pitchers' greatest downfalls. It's exceedingly difficult to find sustained success while giving up hits at a higher clip than almost any other pitcher in baseball, and while Pavano and Blackburn ease their burden by limiting walks, it's difficult to expect anything better than back-of-the-rotation mediocrity unless they run through a prolonged period of good luck (as Pavano did through the first four months or so last year).
It's a rule of thumb in baseball that about 3 out of every 10 balls put in play will turn into a hit. In his eye-opening article for Baseball Nation yesterday, Jeff Sullivan found that, since 1970, even position players who have taken to the mound have registered a .296 BABIP.
By letting hitters put almost everything in play, you walk a dangerous line, and we've been reminded of that over these last several weeks. Since the start of July, Pavano owns a 6.87 ERA and Blackburn is at 7.45. These performances have contributed to a screeching halt in momentum for a rotation that looked spectacular in June.
Pavano and Blackburn have both certainly proven that they are capable of succeeding in spite of their heavy contact tendencies, but it should be intuitively obvious that it's not a reliable recipe for sustained success.
The two are under contract next year for a combined $13.25 million. It's more than likely that they'll once again be two of the most hittable pitchers in the majors.
You reap what you sow, I guess.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher
The Twins entered the offseason with five established starting pitchers under their control for 2011. By re-signing Carl Pavano, they upped that number to six and created a logjam of sorts. With jobs guaranteed to the top two starters, Pavano and Francisco Liriano, four pitchers were tabbed to compete for the final three rotation spots during spring training.
As it turns out, all four of those pitchers have performed well this month, so it comes as no shock that the odd man out is Kevin Slowey, a talented right-handed hurler who's had some friction with the organization and was left off the postseason roster despite winning 13 games last year.
While I don't necessarily agree with the decision to start Slowey in the bullpen, his presence there gives the Twins a quick and competent fall-back option should one of the top five starters falter or suffer an injury. Each of the Twins' six starters has a track record of big-league success and the organization also has top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A, so as we enter the 2011 season the starting rotation appears to be the club's strongest and deepest position.
Carl Pavano
2010 Stats: 221 IP, 17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 117/37 K/BB
I don't think Pavano's a better pitcher than Liriano, but the argument can certainly be made that he had a better season in 2010 and there's nothing wrong with giving him the veteran nod as Opening Day starter this year. Pavano has earned the billing with a lights-out spring training, allowing only six earned runs in 25 innings over five starts. His dramatic drop-off in strikeout rate in the waning months last season was somewhat unsettling, but all the Twins need from Pavano is 200 solid innings to make his $8 million salary look like a bargain. His FIP has been right around 4.00 in each of the past two years so that should be his baseline expectation.
Francisco Liriano
2010 Stats: 191.2 IP, 14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 201/58 K/BB
Liriano has become a rather controversial figure here in Minnesota. Debates swirl around whether or not he's a "true ace," whether his occasional struggles are more attributable to bad luck or mental weakness, and whether the Twins would be wise to trade him before supposedly inevitable injuries decimate his value. What should be universally agreed upon is that Liriano is a very talented pitcher whose arsenal is among the filthiest in baseball, and at age 27 he's still just entering his prime years. The lefty was victimized by an abnormally high number of bleeders, bloopers and seeing-eye singles last year, but these things tend to go in cycles. I expect him to be phenomenal in 2011, and when the year's over I expect the front office to be cursing themselves for failing to at least more actively pursue a three- or four-year deal this past offseason.
Brian Duensing
2010 Stats: 130.2 IP, 10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 78/35 K/BB
By virtue of his outstanding performance last year, Duensing was the first "bubble guy" to be awarded a spot in the rotation this spring. He'll pitch fifth sequentially to split up the lefties, but for all intents and purposes Ron Gardenhire views Duensing as his No. 3. That title seems to be more than earned based on the southpaw's core numbers over the past two years (15-5 with a 3.02 ERA) but a deeper glance shows a rather unspectacular 1.98 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a huge disparity in performance against lefties (.502 OPS) and righties (.747 OPS). Opposing managers will undoubtedly be stacking their lineups with right-handed batters, so Duensing will have his work cut out for him. Matching last year's magic will be an exceedingly tall task.
Nick Blackburn
2010 Stats: 161 IP, 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 68/40 K/BB
From an outside perspective, it's tough to understand why Blackburn would have been promised a rotation spot so quickly this spring. Last year he remained one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and for good measure he also posted the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career. The result was a mostly disastrous campaign that saw him demoted to the minors in late July with a 6.66 ERA, though he returned and pitched well down the stretch to finish with a 10-12 record and 5.42 ERA. The key factors in the Twins' decision were Blackburn's previous history as an effective starter (he tossed about 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009), his newly minted long-term contract and his good standing with the manager. While Blackburn's extreme contact tendencies can be hard to stomach, it's tough to downplay his value those first two seasons and the fact that a nagging elbow injury likely contributed to his struggles last year. If he gets bombed over the first couple months, Slowey will be ready to step in.
Scott Baker
2010 Stats: 170.1 IP, 12-9, 4.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 148/43 K/BB
Only 10 American League starters averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Baker last year, and only 11 averaged fewer walks. Not many teams can make a claim like that about their fifth starter, but the truth is that Baker is the team's No. 5 guy in name only -- ultimately there's a very strong chance that he'll end up being a more effective pitcher than either of the two above him here. In order to make his results match his outstanding peripherals, Baker will focus on two things this year: staying healthy and limiting base runners. His elbow bothered him at times throughout the 2010 campaign and continued to cause issues early this spring. And while his fly ball tendencies will always make him somewhat homer-prone, the long balls do a lot less damage when nobody's on base. Last year Baker posted his highest WHIP (1.34) since 2006.
As it turns out, all four of those pitchers have performed well this month, so it comes as no shock that the odd man out is Kevin Slowey, a talented right-handed hurler who's had some friction with the organization and was left off the postseason roster despite winning 13 games last year.
While I don't necessarily agree with the decision to start Slowey in the bullpen, his presence there gives the Twins a quick and competent fall-back option should one of the top five starters falter or suffer an injury. Each of the Twins' six starters has a track record of big-league success and the organization also has top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A, so as we enter the 2011 season the starting rotation appears to be the club's strongest and deepest position.
Carl Pavano
2010 Stats: 221 IP, 17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 117/37 K/BB
I don't think Pavano's a better pitcher than Liriano, but the argument can certainly be made that he had a better season in 2010 and there's nothing wrong with giving him the veteran nod as Opening Day starter this year. Pavano has earned the billing with a lights-out spring training, allowing only six earned runs in 25 innings over five starts. His dramatic drop-off in strikeout rate in the waning months last season was somewhat unsettling, but all the Twins need from Pavano is 200 solid innings to make his $8 million salary look like a bargain. His FIP has been right around 4.00 in each of the past two years so that should be his baseline expectation.
Francisco Liriano
2010 Stats: 191.2 IP, 14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 201/58 K/BB
Liriano has become a rather controversial figure here in Minnesota. Debates swirl around whether or not he's a "true ace," whether his occasional struggles are more attributable to bad luck or mental weakness, and whether the Twins would be wise to trade him before supposedly inevitable injuries decimate his value. What should be universally agreed upon is that Liriano is a very talented pitcher whose arsenal is among the filthiest in baseball, and at age 27 he's still just entering his prime years. The lefty was victimized by an abnormally high number of bleeders, bloopers and seeing-eye singles last year, but these things tend to go in cycles. I expect him to be phenomenal in 2011, and when the year's over I expect the front office to be cursing themselves for failing to at least more actively pursue a three- or four-year deal this past offseason.
Brian Duensing
2010 Stats: 130.2 IP, 10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 78/35 K/BB
By virtue of his outstanding performance last year, Duensing was the first "bubble guy" to be awarded a spot in the rotation this spring. He'll pitch fifth sequentially to split up the lefties, but for all intents and purposes Ron Gardenhire views Duensing as his No. 3. That title seems to be more than earned based on the southpaw's core numbers over the past two years (15-5 with a 3.02 ERA) but a deeper glance shows a rather unspectacular 1.98 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a huge disparity in performance against lefties (.502 OPS) and righties (.747 OPS). Opposing managers will undoubtedly be stacking their lineups with right-handed batters, so Duensing will have his work cut out for him. Matching last year's magic will be an exceedingly tall task.
Nick Blackburn
2010 Stats: 161 IP, 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 68/40 K/BB
From an outside perspective, it's tough to understand why Blackburn would have been promised a rotation spot so quickly this spring. Last year he remained one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and for good measure he also posted the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career. The result was a mostly disastrous campaign that saw him demoted to the minors in late July with a 6.66 ERA, though he returned and pitched well down the stretch to finish with a 10-12 record and 5.42 ERA. The key factors in the Twins' decision were Blackburn's previous history as an effective starter (he tossed about 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009), his newly minted long-term contract and his good standing with the manager. While Blackburn's extreme contact tendencies can be hard to stomach, it's tough to downplay his value those first two seasons and the fact that a nagging elbow injury likely contributed to his struggles last year. If he gets bombed over the first couple months, Slowey will be ready to step in.
Scott Baker
2010 Stats: 170.1 IP, 12-9, 4.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 148/43 K/BB
Only 10 American League starters averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Baker last year, and only 11 averaged fewer walks. Not many teams can make a claim like that about their fifth starter, but the truth is that Baker is the team's No. 5 guy in name only -- ultimately there's a very strong chance that he'll end up being a more effective pitcher than either of the two above him here. In order to make his results match his outstanding peripherals, Baker will focus on two things this year: staying healthy and limiting base runners. His elbow bothered him at times throughout the 2010 campaign and continued to cause issues early this spring. And while his fly ball tendencies will always make him somewhat homer-prone, the long balls do a lot less damage when nobody's on base. Last year Baker posted his highest WHIP (1.34) since 2006.
Thursday, March 03, 2011
Done Deal
Ron Gardenhire made it official yesterday: Brian Duensing is a starter.
Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano have to be considered rotation locks, but it seemed as though the manager might use spring training performance to determine which of the remaining four would be awarded starting jobs.
Not so for Duensing. Apparently, in Gardenhire's mind, the left-hander earned the billing through his performance last year, when he went 7-2 with a 3.08 ERA after joining the rotation in July.
That performance, combined with his excellent work after stepping into the rotation late in the 2009 season, has convinced many people -- including Gardy -- that Duensing is the team's third-best starter. And, looking only at his ERA and win/loss record from the past two years, that certainly seems to be the case.
Unfortunately, for anyone looking past those categories, it's tough to see him sustaining the kind of success he had last year in a starting role. Duensing doesn't have the stuff to throw past hitters -- evidenced by his 5.5 career K/9 rate -- and as his .275 BABIP from last year inevitably begins to normalize his other numbers will see regression, perhaps drastically so. It seemed as though his luck started to catch up with him late in the season, when he gave up 19 runs on 35 hits in 27 innings over his final five starts, including a playoff dud against the Yankees (though one could make the case that he simply wore down).
To be sure, Duensing is a solid pitcher with admirable poise and there's no reason he can't be a fine back-of-the-rotation arm, but guaranteeing him a starting job also minimizes his greatest and most sustainable asset, which is domination of same-sided batters. Duensing held lefties to an anemic .162/.217/.239 hitting line last year, and showed similar proficiency against them in the previous season.
As a reliever, he would provide the Twins with an established commodity in a bullpen that lacks many. He'd be able to fully utilize his dominance against lefty swingers rather than facing starting lineups stacked with righties. And, should one of the five other starters get injured or fail to cut it, he'd be available to step into the rotation, as he's done successfully in each of the past two seasons.
Instead, assuming everyone stays healthy, the Twins will opt to either potentially weaken the bullpen by asking Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn to pitch in relief -- something none of them have experience doing -- or weaken their starting pitching depth by trading one of those three.
It's frustrating. Not so much that Gardenhire has reached a decision I disagree with, but more so that -- on March 3rd -- his mind is apparently already made up.
Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano have to be considered rotation locks, but it seemed as though the manager might use spring training performance to determine which of the remaining four would be awarded starting jobs.
Not so for Duensing. Apparently, in Gardenhire's mind, the left-hander earned the billing through his performance last year, when he went 7-2 with a 3.08 ERA after joining the rotation in July.
That performance, combined with his excellent work after stepping into the rotation late in the 2009 season, has convinced many people -- including Gardy -- that Duensing is the team's third-best starter. And, looking only at his ERA and win/loss record from the past two years, that certainly seems to be the case.
Unfortunately, for anyone looking past those categories, it's tough to see him sustaining the kind of success he had last year in a starting role. Duensing doesn't have the stuff to throw past hitters -- evidenced by his 5.5 career K/9 rate -- and as his .275 BABIP from last year inevitably begins to normalize his other numbers will see regression, perhaps drastically so. It seemed as though his luck started to catch up with him late in the season, when he gave up 19 runs on 35 hits in 27 innings over his final five starts, including a playoff dud against the Yankees (though one could make the case that he simply wore down).
To be sure, Duensing is a solid pitcher with admirable poise and there's no reason he can't be a fine back-of-the-rotation arm, but guaranteeing him a starting job also minimizes his greatest and most sustainable asset, which is domination of same-sided batters. Duensing held lefties to an anemic .162/.217/.239 hitting line last year, and showed similar proficiency against them in the previous season.
As a reliever, he would provide the Twins with an established commodity in a bullpen that lacks many. He'd be able to fully utilize his dominance against lefty swingers rather than facing starting lineups stacked with righties. And, should one of the five other starters get injured or fail to cut it, he'd be available to step into the rotation, as he's done successfully in each of the past two seasons.
Instead, assuming everyone stays healthy, the Twins will opt to either potentially weaken the bullpen by asking Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn to pitch in relief -- something none of them have experience doing -- or weaken their starting pitching depth by trading one of those three.
It's frustrating. Not so much that Gardenhire has reached a decision I disagree with, but more so that -- on March 3rd -- his mind is apparently already made up.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Musical Chairs
Back in grade school, the game of musical chairs seemed like good, innocent fun. Little did we know that it was actually designed to prepare us for the harsh realities of the world. Oftentimes in life, there are only a limited number of spots available, and when the music stops, it sucks to be the last one standing.
Several starting pitchers for the Twins will enter spring training in a musical chairs mindset this year. The signing of Carl Pavano creates a logjam in the rotation, with six viable candidates and only five spots available. We're safe in assuming that Pavano and Francisco Liriano are guaranteed spots. We're also safe, I think, in assuming that Scott Baker is guaranteed a spot -- he's been a relatively durable and effective arm in each of the past three years, throwing 170-plus innings in each with an ERA never exceeding 4.50.
One can argue that top prospect Kyle Gibson has a shot at earning a job, but I can't see that happening unless an injury or two strikes; there's simply no reason to start his arbitration clock unless pushed by necessity. So it comes down to Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Kevin Slowey competing for the two remaining spots.
Each hurler can make a good case for himself.
Blackburn was the most stable force in the rotation over the 2008 and '09 seasons. He averaged 200 quality innings, and the Twins rewarded that performance with a four-year contract last spring. After signing the new deal, however, Blackburn's contact-happy pitching style began to catch up with him, and he found himself demoted to Triple-A in July. Late in the year, he returned to the big-league rotation and pitched effectively, earning himself a spot in the playoff rotation (though his turn never came).
Duensing stepped into the rotation in 2009 and made a crucial contribution down the stretch, helping propel the Twins to a postseason berth. Last year, he once again played a significant role in the team's success, moving from the bullpen to the rotation when Blackburn's struggles created an opening in July and posting stellar numbers as a starter down the stretch. In 23 career major-league starts, Duensing is 12-3 with a 2.93 ERA.
Slowey pretty clearly has the best stuff and upside of the three, but he has also experienced the least success over the past couple years. A wrist injury limited him to 90 innings in 2009, and last year his production was suppressed by injuries and stamina issues, to the degree that he was left off the postseason roster. However, Slowey is the youngest and he's the only one with a sustainable recipe for success; Duensing's performance last year was propped up by a virtually unrepeatable .270 BABIP and Blackburn will always be heavily dependent on luck and defense. Slowey has a historically great strikeout-to-walk ratio and was flat-out dominant at every level in the minors.
My guess is that, barring a truly awful performance in spring training, Blackburn can stake his claim to one of the rotation spots in question. His greatest value is in his durability (team-leading 92 starts over the past three years), which I believe is the chief reason he got a long-term contract a year ago. He also doesn't offer much as a bullpen arm, and I suspect that is why, following his demotion to bullpen last year, he was sent to the minors after only two relief appearances to keep his arm in starting shape.
If I'm correct in that presumption, we'll be looking at a spring battle between Duensing and Slowey for the fifth and final spot. My opinion right now is that Duensing should be the odd man out. That's not so much an indictment of the left-hander as an acknowledgment that, among all three candidates, he's the only one with any history of success as a reliever. Before moving to the rotation last season, Duensing had registered a 1.67 ERA and held opponents to a .591 OPS in 39 appearances out of the bullpen. Outside of Matt Capps and Jose Mijares, the Twins are short on relief candidates with recent major-league success, so Duensing and his experience would be a vital addition.
Beyond being more well-suited to pitch in relief, Duensing is due for some serious regression as a starting pitcher. His 2.93 big-league ERA as a starter dwarfs his 4.00 mark in Triple-A, and despite his outstanding poise his stuff just isn't very good. This was on display when he failed to induce a single swinging strike in his ALDS start against the Yankees -- a stat I just can't get out of my head.
Eventually, mediocre stuff catches up with you. Look no further than Blackburn's 2010 campaign as evidence. That doesn't mean Duensing is going to suddenly turn into a pumpkin -- and it does help that he throws with his left hand -- but he's much more likely to be the team's fifth (or sixth) best starter this year than their third-best, as some people seem to view him.
I can see the argument for the other side. Certainly Duensing has done enough over the past two years to earn a rotation spot on merit, and given Slowey's stamina issues it's not hard to see his stuff playing better out of the bullpen. The difference-maker for me is Duensing's experience as a reliever, and the fact that -- much like the last two years -- he'll be ready to step into the rotation when things go south. If healthy, Slowey could easily recapture his 2008 form and become a legitimate top-end starter, while Duensing would have to rely on continuing to outperform his underwhelming peripheral numbers (against lineups stacked with righties, against whom he is extremely vulnerable in comparison to lefties) in order to achieve that kind of success.
Duensing has been there when the Twins have needed him over the past two years, and he's played an underrated role in their back-to-back division titles. He's shown an uncanny ability to step up and perform in whatever role he's asked, and that's all the more reason for him to open the season in the bullpen, where his dominance against lefty hitters can be fully utilized. Without a doubt, the Twins will need an extra starter at some point, and when that time comes, Duensing will hopefully be ready to step in with added confidence. Just like last year.
Several starting pitchers for the Twins will enter spring training in a musical chairs mindset this year. The signing of Carl Pavano creates a logjam in the rotation, with six viable candidates and only five spots available. We're safe in assuming that Pavano and Francisco Liriano are guaranteed spots. We're also safe, I think, in assuming that Scott Baker is guaranteed a spot -- he's been a relatively durable and effective arm in each of the past three years, throwing 170-plus innings in each with an ERA never exceeding 4.50.
One can argue that top prospect Kyle Gibson has a shot at earning a job, but I can't see that happening unless an injury or two strikes; there's simply no reason to start his arbitration clock unless pushed by necessity. So it comes down to Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Kevin Slowey competing for the two remaining spots.
Each hurler can make a good case for himself.
Blackburn was the most stable force in the rotation over the 2008 and '09 seasons. He averaged 200 quality innings, and the Twins rewarded that performance with a four-year contract last spring. After signing the new deal, however, Blackburn's contact-happy pitching style began to catch up with him, and he found himself demoted to Triple-A in July. Late in the year, he returned to the big-league rotation and pitched effectively, earning himself a spot in the playoff rotation (though his turn never came).
Duensing stepped into the rotation in 2009 and made a crucial contribution down the stretch, helping propel the Twins to a postseason berth. Last year, he once again played a significant role in the team's success, moving from the bullpen to the rotation when Blackburn's struggles created an opening in July and posting stellar numbers as a starter down the stretch. In 23 career major-league starts, Duensing is 12-3 with a 2.93 ERA.
Slowey pretty clearly has the best stuff and upside of the three, but he has also experienced the least success over the past couple years. A wrist injury limited him to 90 innings in 2009, and last year his production was suppressed by injuries and stamina issues, to the degree that he was left off the postseason roster. However, Slowey is the youngest and he's the only one with a sustainable recipe for success; Duensing's performance last year was propped up by a virtually unrepeatable .270 BABIP and Blackburn will always be heavily dependent on luck and defense. Slowey has a historically great strikeout-to-walk ratio and was flat-out dominant at every level in the minors.
My guess is that, barring a truly awful performance in spring training, Blackburn can stake his claim to one of the rotation spots in question. His greatest value is in his durability (team-leading 92 starts over the past three years), which I believe is the chief reason he got a long-term contract a year ago. He also doesn't offer much as a bullpen arm, and I suspect that is why, following his demotion to bullpen last year, he was sent to the minors after only two relief appearances to keep his arm in starting shape.
If I'm correct in that presumption, we'll be looking at a spring battle between Duensing and Slowey for the fifth and final spot. My opinion right now is that Duensing should be the odd man out. That's not so much an indictment of the left-hander as an acknowledgment that, among all three candidates, he's the only one with any history of success as a reliever. Before moving to the rotation last season, Duensing had registered a 1.67 ERA and held opponents to a .591 OPS in 39 appearances out of the bullpen. Outside of Matt Capps and Jose Mijares, the Twins are short on relief candidates with recent major-league success, so Duensing and his experience would be a vital addition.
Beyond being more well-suited to pitch in relief, Duensing is due for some serious regression as a starting pitcher. His 2.93 big-league ERA as a starter dwarfs his 4.00 mark in Triple-A, and despite his outstanding poise his stuff just isn't very good. This was on display when he failed to induce a single swinging strike in his ALDS start against the Yankees -- a stat I just can't get out of my head.
Eventually, mediocre stuff catches up with you. Look no further than Blackburn's 2010 campaign as evidence. That doesn't mean Duensing is going to suddenly turn into a pumpkin -- and it does help that he throws with his left hand -- but he's much more likely to be the team's fifth (or sixth) best starter this year than their third-best, as some people seem to view him.
I can see the argument for the other side. Certainly Duensing has done enough over the past two years to earn a rotation spot on merit, and given Slowey's stamina issues it's not hard to see his stuff playing better out of the bullpen. The difference-maker for me is Duensing's experience as a reliever, and the fact that -- much like the last two years -- he'll be ready to step into the rotation when things go south. If healthy, Slowey could easily recapture his 2008 form and become a legitimate top-end starter, while Duensing would have to rely on continuing to outperform his underwhelming peripheral numbers (against lineups stacked with righties, against whom he is extremely vulnerable in comparison to lefties) in order to achieve that kind of success.
Duensing has been there when the Twins have needed him over the past two years, and he's played an underrated role in their back-to-back division titles. He's shown an uncanny ability to step up and perform in whatever role he's asked, and that's all the more reason for him to open the season in the bullpen, where his dominance against lefty hitters can be fully utilized. Without a doubt, the Twins will need an extra starter at some point, and when that time comes, Duensing will hopefully be ready to step in with added confidence. Just like last year.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Kevin Slowey: Know When to Hold 'Em
The Twins avoided arbitration with Kevin Slowey yesterday, reaching agreement on a one-year, $2.7 million deal that equals the exact midpoint of the figures submitted by each side. The contract probably won't receive much fanfare, as Slowey hasn't done much to endear himself to fans (or, as I've heard, management) over the past couple years, but I see it as a great deal.
I know I've come to sound like a curmudgeon at times this offseason, but Slowey is one player I'm bullishly optimistic about. While there are a number of players on the roster who seem unlikely to perform up to the level of their salary, Slowey is a strong candidate to outperform his -- and perhaps by a lot.
Paging the calendar back four years, a 22-year-old Slowey was a fast-rising star in the Twins' farm system. After being selected in the second round of the 2005 draft, the right-hander had rocketed through four levels of minor-league competition in a little over one season with jaw-dropping numbers at each stop, and along with Matt Garza he represented a bright future for the Twins' rotation.
Despite posting dazzling stats everywhere he went while ascending through the minors, Slowey's potential as a major-leaguer was downplayed by scouts and prospect buffs who proclaimed his high-80s fastball and unimpressive secondary pitches wouldn't play in the bigs. They had a point, but there's something to be said for any pitcher who can dominate level after level of pro competition as a 22-year-old in his first full professional season.
What Slowey lacked in raw stuff, he made up for with everything else. Described often by those who cover the team as a particularly bright person, Slowey achieved success by outwitting opposing batters and hitting his spots with absolute precision. In 220 innings over that first season-and-change, Slowey issued only 30 walks.
For many pitching prospects who make a living off overpowering hitters with smarts or command rather than pitch quality, the results tend to tail off in the upper levels of the minors. That wasn't the case for Slowey. In 2007, he pulled together his most impressive minor-league performance yet, posting a 1.89 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 107-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 133 1/3 innings at Triple-A. He also received two big-league call-ups that season, struggling in his mid-summer debut but returning with a 3.34 ERA and amazing 28-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 29 2/3 innings during a September call-up.
From all evidence, Slowey was ready to become a frontline pitcher for the Twins. At 23, he had dominantly conquered every level of the minors in just over two seasons, and was already adjusting to major-league competition.
His 2008 season, spent almost entirely in the Twins rotation, was an extremely impressive one. In 160 1/3 innings spread across 27 starts, Slowey went 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 123-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Not only was the young Slowey already turning in an elite walk rate and a very respectable strikeout rate, he was also establishing himself as a bulldog. His current reputation certainly doesn't reflect this fact, but Slowey hurled three complete games, and two shutouts (which was one more shutout than any other pitcher in the American League threw that year). In 55 minor-league starts, he'd turned in seven complete games.
When I reference Slowey's "current reputation" in a negative way, it's because the right-hander's standing in the eyes of Twins fans has dropped drastically over the past two years. It's not hard to see why -- he's struggled to even hover around mediocrity during that span. The thing is, you can make a pretty good case that those struggles are almost entirely the result of injuries.
Late in the 2008 season, in a game against the White Sox, Slowey was hit in the wrist by a Juan Uribe line drive. X-rays showed no broken bones, but the injury had a lasting effect. Slowey struggled out of the gate in 2009, saw his performance deteriorate rapidly in late June, and opted for season-ending wrist surgery in July. The procedure was rather serious, involving the placement of metal screws in Slowey's pitching wrist, and many wondered whether he would be able to once again harness his elite command.
The righty showed positive signs of that happening in 2010. He came back with pre-surgery velocity and, after some early hiccups, settled back into his groove as a perpetual strike-thrower. (He had a stretch of 17 consecutive outings spanning May, June, July and August in which he didn't walk more than one batter in a game.)
While his core numbers rebounded, Slowey began having stamina issues. His inability to last deep into games was partially rooted in the organization's stringent adherence to a set pitch count for young starters (Slowey exceeded 106 pitches in a start only once) but his opponents' OPS rose from .730 in innings 1-through-3 to .812 in innings 4-through-6, and those who watched him will attest that he regularly seemed to run out of gas before the sixth inning.
It's not clear whether this was related to residual wrist issues or the chronic sore elbow that forced him to have a start pushed back in early August and placed him on the disabled list later that month.
Either way, Slowey will enter the 2011 season with an offseason of rest (which was all that doctors deemed necessary) for the elbow and nearly two years removed from his wrist surgery. Still only 26, he seems like a prime candidate to have a breakout year, recapturing and building on his success from the '08 season.
Unfortunately, his struggles over the past two years -- along with the presence of five other starters on the roster -- do provide the Twins front office with an excuse to move him. I've always gotten the sense they don't see his personality as a clubhouse fit, which is why one of my three offseason predictions back in October was that he would be traded. I desperately hope that I'm wrong about that.
When the cards get dealt out this season, it's not likely that Slowey will come out an ace. But if he's healthy he'll be a very high card. And in a rotation that already features a potential ace in Francisco Liriano, an excellent veteran in Carl Pavano and a hopefully resurgent Scott Baker, that might be all the Twins need.
In poker, you never deal away a high card if it's got a chance to give you a great hand.
On an unrelated and more serious note, if you have any money you can afford to spare for a good cause, please consider contributing to One Clap for Zach. It's a fundraiser for the medical expenses of Zach Gabbard, who collapsed while playing basketball in Seth's hometown of Perham and is now hospitalized with a serious heart condition. Short of a monetary donation, I'm sure Zach's family would appreciate your thoughts and prayers.
I know I've come to sound like a curmudgeon at times this offseason, but Slowey is one player I'm bullishly optimistic about. While there are a number of players on the roster who seem unlikely to perform up to the level of their salary, Slowey is a strong candidate to outperform his -- and perhaps by a lot.
Paging the calendar back four years, a 22-year-old Slowey was a fast-rising star in the Twins' farm system. After being selected in the second round of the 2005 draft, the right-hander had rocketed through four levels of minor-league competition in a little over one season with jaw-dropping numbers at each stop, and along with Matt Garza he represented a bright future for the Twins' rotation.
Despite posting dazzling stats everywhere he went while ascending through the minors, Slowey's potential as a major-leaguer was downplayed by scouts and prospect buffs who proclaimed his high-80s fastball and unimpressive secondary pitches wouldn't play in the bigs. They had a point, but there's something to be said for any pitcher who can dominate level after level of pro competition as a 22-year-old in his first full professional season.
What Slowey lacked in raw stuff, he made up for with everything else. Described often by those who cover the team as a particularly bright person, Slowey achieved success by outwitting opposing batters and hitting his spots with absolute precision. In 220 innings over that first season-and-change, Slowey issued only 30 walks.
For many pitching prospects who make a living off overpowering hitters with smarts or command rather than pitch quality, the results tend to tail off in the upper levels of the minors. That wasn't the case for Slowey. In 2007, he pulled together his most impressive minor-league performance yet, posting a 1.89 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 107-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 133 1/3 innings at Triple-A. He also received two big-league call-ups that season, struggling in his mid-summer debut but returning with a 3.34 ERA and amazing 28-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 29 2/3 innings during a September call-up.
From all evidence, Slowey was ready to become a frontline pitcher for the Twins. At 23, he had dominantly conquered every level of the minors in just over two seasons, and was already adjusting to major-league competition.
His 2008 season, spent almost entirely in the Twins rotation, was an extremely impressive one. In 160 1/3 innings spread across 27 starts, Slowey went 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 123-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Not only was the young Slowey already turning in an elite walk rate and a very respectable strikeout rate, he was also establishing himself as a bulldog. His current reputation certainly doesn't reflect this fact, but Slowey hurled three complete games, and two shutouts (which was one more shutout than any other pitcher in the American League threw that year). In 55 minor-league starts, he'd turned in seven complete games.
When I reference Slowey's "current reputation" in a negative way, it's because the right-hander's standing in the eyes of Twins fans has dropped drastically over the past two years. It's not hard to see why -- he's struggled to even hover around mediocrity during that span. The thing is, you can make a pretty good case that those struggles are almost entirely the result of injuries.
Late in the 2008 season, in a game against the White Sox, Slowey was hit in the wrist by a Juan Uribe line drive. X-rays showed no broken bones, but the injury had a lasting effect. Slowey struggled out of the gate in 2009, saw his performance deteriorate rapidly in late June, and opted for season-ending wrist surgery in July. The procedure was rather serious, involving the placement of metal screws in Slowey's pitching wrist, and many wondered whether he would be able to once again harness his elite command.
The righty showed positive signs of that happening in 2010. He came back with pre-surgery velocity and, after some early hiccups, settled back into his groove as a perpetual strike-thrower. (He had a stretch of 17 consecutive outings spanning May, June, July and August in which he didn't walk more than one batter in a game.)
While his core numbers rebounded, Slowey began having stamina issues. His inability to last deep into games was partially rooted in the organization's stringent adherence to a set pitch count for young starters (Slowey exceeded 106 pitches in a start only once) but his opponents' OPS rose from .730 in innings 1-through-3 to .812 in innings 4-through-6, and those who watched him will attest that he regularly seemed to run out of gas before the sixth inning.
It's not clear whether this was related to residual wrist issues or the chronic sore elbow that forced him to have a start pushed back in early August and placed him on the disabled list later that month.
Either way, Slowey will enter the 2011 season with an offseason of rest (which was all that doctors deemed necessary) for the elbow and nearly two years removed from his wrist surgery. Still only 26, he seems like a prime candidate to have a breakout year, recapturing and building on his success from the '08 season.
Unfortunately, his struggles over the past two years -- along with the presence of five other starters on the roster -- do provide the Twins front office with an excuse to move him. I've always gotten the sense they don't see his personality as a clubhouse fit, which is why one of my three offseason predictions back in October was that he would be traded. I desperately hope that I'm wrong about that.
When the cards get dealt out this season, it's not likely that Slowey will come out an ace. But if he's healthy he'll be a very high card. And in a rotation that already features a potential ace in Francisco Liriano, an excellent veteran in Carl Pavano and a hopefully resurgent Scott Baker, that might be all the Twins need.
In poker, you never deal away a high card if it's got a chance to give you a great hand.
***
On an unrelated and more serious note, if you have any money you can afford to spare for a good cause, please consider contributing to One Clap for Zach. It's a fundraiser for the medical expenses of Zach Gabbard, who collapsed while playing basketball in Seth's hometown of Perham and is now hospitalized with a serious heart condition. Short of a monetary donation, I'm sure Zach's family would appreciate your thoughts and prayers.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Ready to Get Tangled in Webb?
In Wednesday's post, I suggested that the Twins might be wise to pursue a "low-cost reclamation project" to add depth to the rotation if they let Carl Pavano walk, specifically calling out Brandon Webb and Chris Young. Later that morning, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick made the following tweet:
Back in January of 2009, the Indians signed free agent Carl Pavano, who had pitched only 45 innings over the prior three seasons combined, to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million plus incentives. I loved the move from afar, opining that it was "what a low-risk veteran signing should look like." Pavano, once considered an elite starter, had been an epic free agent bust with the Yankees and needed to rectify his image. The Indians had a million and a half bucks to gamble on him.
As it turned out, the deal worked out well for both sides. Pavano scooted past his incentive milestones, tacking onto his salary significantly while setting himself up to earn far more in the ensuing years. The Indians and Twins, meanwhile, got 200 innings of solid veteran performance.
Webb is not so far removed from his prime years, and during them he was a better pitcher than Pavano ever has been. In 2006, Webb captured the NL Cy Young by going 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA over 235 innings for the Diamondbacks. He finished second in the Cy Young voting in both 2007 and 2008.
On Opening Day of the 2009 season, Webb left after four innings due to soreness in his right shoulder. A few months later, he'd go under the knife, costing him the rest of his '09 season and all of 2010. Now, Webb is set to become a free agent and he's a major wild card. The right-hander reported that his fastball was only touching 81-83 mph in early October, but that's a long way from spring training and Webb was never a fireballer (during his best years, his heater only averaged 88 mph).
On a Pavano-type deal, Webb would almost certainly be a worthwhile investment. However, it's possible that the former Diamondback will have higher demands. He and his agent could seek a deal more similar to the one Ben Sheets inked with the A's last offseason. Sheets, who'd not pitched since 2008 due to his own shoulder issues, signed a one-year contract that guaranteed $10 million and contained $2 million in incentives.
That deal busted, as Sheets was thoroughly mediocre over 20 starts before suffering another major shoulder injury that will probably signify the end of his career. With this example fresh in mind, it's unlikely that any general manager will throw eight figures at Webb, but he could seek a one-year deal similar to the ones fellow injury concerns Rich Harden ($6.5 million plus incentives) and Brad Penny ($7.5 million plus incentives) signed prior to this season.
The nice thing for the Twins is that they have enough depth to take a gamble on Webb. They already have five potentially capable starters in Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing. Beyond that stable, they've got top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
If Webb fizzles, the Twins can probably sustain it from a competitive standpoint. The question is how much it would hurt them financially. He is still only 31 years old and prior to his injury he was one of baseball's premier workhorses, but no one can know what to expect in his first season back. I don't know exactly how much the Twins' payroll is going to increase this year and maybe they can afford to gamble at high stakes on Webb, but if he's demanding an amount that would severely restrict their other offseason moves, they'd have to be very confident his shoulder is good to go.
Webb, Jeff Francis & Chris Young attracting interest as comeback bets on 1-yr deals. Webb a potential fallback for Twins if Pavano leavesIf Crasnick has his sources straight, then this appears to be one of those decreasingly rare instances in which I find myself on the same wavelength as the Twins brass. Webb is shaping up to be a guy worth taking a flier on, but only under the right circumstances.
Back in January of 2009, the Indians signed free agent Carl Pavano, who had pitched only 45 innings over the prior three seasons combined, to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million plus incentives. I loved the move from afar, opining that it was "what a low-risk veteran signing should look like." Pavano, once considered an elite starter, had been an epic free agent bust with the Yankees and needed to rectify his image. The Indians had a million and a half bucks to gamble on him.
As it turned out, the deal worked out well for both sides. Pavano scooted past his incentive milestones, tacking onto his salary significantly while setting himself up to earn far more in the ensuing years. The Indians and Twins, meanwhile, got 200 innings of solid veteran performance.
Webb is not so far removed from his prime years, and during them he was a better pitcher than Pavano ever has been. In 2006, Webb captured the NL Cy Young by going 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA over 235 innings for the Diamondbacks. He finished second in the Cy Young voting in both 2007 and 2008.
On Opening Day of the 2009 season, Webb left after four innings due to soreness in his right shoulder. A few months later, he'd go under the knife, costing him the rest of his '09 season and all of 2010. Now, Webb is set to become a free agent and he's a major wild card. The right-hander reported that his fastball was only touching 81-83 mph in early October, but that's a long way from spring training and Webb was never a fireballer (during his best years, his heater only averaged 88 mph).
On a Pavano-type deal, Webb would almost certainly be a worthwhile investment. However, it's possible that the former Diamondback will have higher demands. He and his agent could seek a deal more similar to the one Ben Sheets inked with the A's last offseason. Sheets, who'd not pitched since 2008 due to his own shoulder issues, signed a one-year contract that guaranteed $10 million and contained $2 million in incentives.
That deal busted, as Sheets was thoroughly mediocre over 20 starts before suffering another major shoulder injury that will probably signify the end of his career. With this example fresh in mind, it's unlikely that any general manager will throw eight figures at Webb, but he could seek a one-year deal similar to the ones fellow injury concerns Rich Harden ($6.5 million plus incentives) and Brad Penny ($7.5 million plus incentives) signed prior to this season.
The nice thing for the Twins is that they have enough depth to take a gamble on Webb. They already have five potentially capable starters in Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing. Beyond that stable, they've got top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
If Webb fizzles, the Twins can probably sustain it from a competitive standpoint. The question is how much it would hurt them financially. He is still only 31 years old and prior to his injury he was one of baseball's premier workhorses, but no one can know what to expect in his first season back. I don't know exactly how much the Twins' payroll is going to increase this year and maybe they can afford to gamble at high stakes on Webb, but if he's demanding an amount that would severely restrict their other offseason moves, they'd have to be very confident his shoulder is good to go.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Fourth Starter in the Playoffs
On Monday, I posted an article submitting four questions about the Twins' playoff roster for consideration. The topic that seemed to generate the most discussion was which starting pitcher might get the nod to start Game 4 of the ALDS, should there be one.
Right now, the choice appears to be between Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker or the Game 1 starter on short rest. None of those options seem all that unappealing, which is a good sort of conundrum to face. I can't claim to know what the right answer is at this very point in time, and if you think you do, you're probably wrong.
Ron Gardenhire made his current preference clear yesterday, laying out a planned playoff rotation that includes Blackburn as fourth starter. Gardenhire left the door open for adjustments based on what happens over the team's final handful of regular season games, but for now Blackburn stands at the front of the line for that fourth rotation spot in October.
Is Gardy on the right track?
All things being equal, you want Baker or Slowey to pitch a big game before you want Blackburn. They're better pitchers, capable of controlling a lineup with strikeouts unlike Blackburn who allows an insane amount of contact and can only dictate to a certain degree whether those copious balls in play turn into outs. Against a team filled with outstanding hitters like the Yankees or Rays, you want the guy who can get you some essentially guaranteed outs.
But all things are not currently equal. Blackburn has been steadily excellent since returning from a minor-league stint, with a hugely increased ground ball rate and a pair of strong outings against a playoff team. Meanwhile, Baker hasn't pitched into the sixth inning of a game in nearly a month and has been bothered by a sore elbow.
Slowey has battled arm issues late in the season as well, and while he's occasionally flashed brilliance he has yet to settle into a prolonged groove. While Slowey's overall numbers are drastically better than Blackburn's this year, it bears noting that Blackburn has delivered 13 quality starts to Slowey's nine. That includes four against AL playoff teams for Blackburn, one for Slowey.
A hardcore sabermetrician likely will not waver in claiming that Baker should be the guy, regardless of performance over these final games. After all, according to advanced statistics that filter out luck and defense, Baker's been the team's second-best starter this season.
The problem with strictly statistical analysis is that it tends to ignore the human aspects of the game. These aren't robots out there playing. Sometimes streaks can be meaningful. Guys have confidence highs and lows. They go through stretches where their mechanics get out of whack. They pitch through injuries that affect their results.
This might sound like a major endorsement of Blackburn, and it's not meant to be. I've been as low as anyone on the right-hander this season, and there was a point where the thought of him starting a postseason game would have induced nausea for me. But we know he's a streaky pitcher and right now he's undeniably going good. If he unravels in his final starts while his competitors excel and prove they're fully healthy, you re-evaluate. If no one looks up to the challenge, maybe a start from Francisco Liriano on three days rest is the most logical choice.
Above all, I'd encourage everyone to keep an open mind. The right answer now could very well differ from the right answer on October 6th. Only one matters.
Right now, the choice appears to be between Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker or the Game 1 starter on short rest. None of those options seem all that unappealing, which is a good sort of conundrum to face. I can't claim to know what the right answer is at this very point in time, and if you think you do, you're probably wrong.
Ron Gardenhire made his current preference clear yesterday, laying out a planned playoff rotation that includes Blackburn as fourth starter. Gardenhire left the door open for adjustments based on what happens over the team's final handful of regular season games, but for now Blackburn stands at the front of the line for that fourth rotation spot in October.
Is Gardy on the right track?
All things being equal, you want Baker or Slowey to pitch a big game before you want Blackburn. They're better pitchers, capable of controlling a lineup with strikeouts unlike Blackburn who allows an insane amount of contact and can only dictate to a certain degree whether those copious balls in play turn into outs. Against a team filled with outstanding hitters like the Yankees or Rays, you want the guy who can get you some essentially guaranteed outs.
But all things are not currently equal. Blackburn has been steadily excellent since returning from a minor-league stint, with a hugely increased ground ball rate and a pair of strong outings against a playoff team. Meanwhile, Baker hasn't pitched into the sixth inning of a game in nearly a month and has been bothered by a sore elbow.
Slowey has battled arm issues late in the season as well, and while he's occasionally flashed brilliance he has yet to settle into a prolonged groove. While Slowey's overall numbers are drastically better than Blackburn's this year, it bears noting that Blackburn has delivered 13 quality starts to Slowey's nine. That includes four against AL playoff teams for Blackburn, one for Slowey.
A hardcore sabermetrician likely will not waver in claiming that Baker should be the guy, regardless of performance over these final games. After all, according to advanced statistics that filter out luck and defense, Baker's been the team's second-best starter this season.
The problem with strictly statistical analysis is that it tends to ignore the human aspects of the game. These aren't robots out there playing. Sometimes streaks can be meaningful. Guys have confidence highs and lows. They go through stretches where their mechanics get out of whack. They pitch through injuries that affect their results.
This might sound like a major endorsement of Blackburn, and it's not meant to be. I've been as low as anyone on the right-hander this season, and there was a point where the thought of him starting a postseason game would have induced nausea for me. But we know he's a streaky pitcher and right now he's undeniably going good. If he unravels in his final starts while his competitors excel and prove they're fully healthy, you re-evaluate. If no one looks up to the challenge, maybe a start from Francisco Liriano on three days rest is the most logical choice.
Above all, I'd encourage everyone to keep an open mind. The right answer now could very well differ from the right answer on October 6th. Only one matters.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Four Questions About the Playoff Roster
Yesterday's loss to the Athletics sealed the Twins' first series loss in nearly a month, and their first at Target Field since mid-July. They still made progress toward clinching a division title thanks to the plummeting White Sox dropping their sixth straight game, an ugly extra-innings loss against the Tigers. The Twins' Magic Number now sits at four, and they'll likely pop the champagne sometime this week.
With only 13 regular-season games remaining, it's fair to start casting our gaze toward the postseason. The Twins, just one game shy of the MLB-best Yankees in the win/loss column, continue to pursue the American League's No. 1 seed. For now, the Twins are at the very least virtually assured home field advantage in the first round, as their five-game edge over the Rangers has them lined up to host the AL wild card in the ALDS.
There are a few questions worth pondering as we consider how the Twins might arrange their their playoff roster, which must be whittled down considerably from its current expanded state. For today, I submit four such questions for discussion:
1) Who starts Game 1?
As the rotation currently projects, Francisco Liriano is in line to start Game 1. I'd certainly support that course of action, as I feel Liriano is one of the league's elite starting pitchers and would match up most evenly with David Price or CC Sabathia.
Carl Pavano hasn't been as good as Liriano this year and he treads a more dangerous slope with his tendency to allow contact, but he's the veteran with postseason experience and it wouldn't surprise me if he were Ron Gardenhire's preference.
2) Who starts Game 4?
We basically know that Liriano, Pavano and Brian Duensing will be Gardenhire's top three playoff starters, in whatever order. What's not nearly as clear is who might get the nod in a fourth game, if necessary. Scott Baker has fallen out of the picture due to his recent injury, so it comes down to Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn.
Slowey has significantly better numbers than Blackburn this season. He gets more strikeouts but is a lot more fly ball prone. Blackburn was arguably the league's worst pitcher over the first four months of the season, but he's gotten far better results since being recalled from a brief demotion to the minors and that improvement is supported by an uptick in ground balls. While I think the cliche oversimplifies matters, it does seem as though Blackburn has "found his sinker."
Ultimately, both Blackburn and Slowey give you reason to be nervous against a lineup like Tampa's or New York's, and it could be that the answer to this question will be dictated by who pitches better in their final turns.
At this time, though, I've got to believe Blackburn's experience pitching in big games (and pitching well) makes him the front-runner.
With all that being said, if the Twins face elimination in Game 4, I wouldn't be surprised to see Gardenhire go back to his Game 1 starter on short rest. Liriano's arm seems to need every extra day of rest it can get, which is another reason Gardy might favor Pavano as Game 1 starter.
3) What is Scott Baker's role?
He was the Twins' Opening Day starter this year, and now there's a possibility that he'll be a healthy scratch from the postseason roster. Poor kid.
Baker has been absent from the Twins' rotation over the past few weeks while battling a sore forearm, and now that he's ready to return there's no room for him. Gardenhire has indicated that Baker will work out of the bullpen and maybe make a spot start during as the season winds down, which means he's got almost no shot at starting a playoff game.
Then, Baker becomes part of a bit of a roster crunch. With the abbreviated rotation and extra days off during postseason play, there's little reason to carry more than 11 pitchers, and the Twins will already have one starter in the bullpen. There's no sense in carrying Baker as an extra mop-up guy, and it's anyone's guess whether Gardenhire would be willing to use him in tight late-inning situations.
I'll say this much: If Baker is left off the playoff roster at the expense of Matt Guerrier or Jon Rauch, I think it's a mistake. Baker has better stuff and would be a more effective weapon in middle relief.
4) Can Justin Morneau return?
It's the question that continues to resonate quietly through Twins Territory. Morneau was an MVP front-runner when he went down with a concussion in early July, and he hasn't played since. The Twins still haven't officially shut Morneau down for the season, and recent reports have the first baseman "feeling really good," so hope lingers on.
There are only 13 games left in the season and probably not enough time for Morneau to sharpen his skills with a stint down in Florida and jump back in right where he left off with the Twins. If we're being realistic, the chances of Morneau starting at first base and batting cleanup in Game 1 of the ALDS are close to nil.
But one thing that I've contemplated lately is the possibility that Morneau might return to the Twins strictly as a bench threat in October. Even accounting for his time away from the game, Morneau still figures to be a far better pinch-hitting threat than anything else the Twins can muster, especially with Jim Thome likely to be an every-game starter.
Using Morneau in this limited role would prevent him from having his rust exposed in the field and would set the stage for some unbelievable October dramatics. It might not be very likely, but right now I'd say it's the best shot we've got at seeing Morneau again this year.
With only 13 regular-season games remaining, it's fair to start casting our gaze toward the postseason. The Twins, just one game shy of the MLB-best Yankees in the win/loss column, continue to pursue the American League's No. 1 seed. For now, the Twins are at the very least virtually assured home field advantage in the first round, as their five-game edge over the Rangers has them lined up to host the AL wild card in the ALDS.
There are a few questions worth pondering as we consider how the Twins might arrange their their playoff roster, which must be whittled down considerably from its current expanded state. For today, I submit four such questions for discussion:
1) Who starts Game 1?
As the rotation currently projects, Francisco Liriano is in line to start Game 1. I'd certainly support that course of action, as I feel Liriano is one of the league's elite starting pitchers and would match up most evenly with David Price or CC Sabathia.
Carl Pavano hasn't been as good as Liriano this year and he treads a more dangerous slope with his tendency to allow contact, but he's the veteran with postseason experience and it wouldn't surprise me if he were Ron Gardenhire's preference.
2) Who starts Game 4?
We basically know that Liriano, Pavano and Brian Duensing will be Gardenhire's top three playoff starters, in whatever order. What's not nearly as clear is who might get the nod in a fourth game, if necessary. Scott Baker has fallen out of the picture due to his recent injury, so it comes down to Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn.
Slowey has significantly better numbers than Blackburn this season. He gets more strikeouts but is a lot more fly ball prone. Blackburn was arguably the league's worst pitcher over the first four months of the season, but he's gotten far better results since being recalled from a brief demotion to the minors and that improvement is supported by an uptick in ground balls. While I think the cliche oversimplifies matters, it does seem as though Blackburn has "found his sinker."
Ultimately, both Blackburn and Slowey give you reason to be nervous against a lineup like Tampa's or New York's, and it could be that the answer to this question will be dictated by who pitches better in their final turns.
At this time, though, I've got to believe Blackburn's experience pitching in big games (and pitching well) makes him the front-runner.
With all that being said, if the Twins face elimination in Game 4, I wouldn't be surprised to see Gardenhire go back to his Game 1 starter on short rest. Liriano's arm seems to need every extra day of rest it can get, which is another reason Gardy might favor Pavano as Game 1 starter.
3) What is Scott Baker's role?
He was the Twins' Opening Day starter this year, and now there's a possibility that he'll be a healthy scratch from the postseason roster. Poor kid.
Baker has been absent from the Twins' rotation over the past few weeks while battling a sore forearm, and now that he's ready to return there's no room for him. Gardenhire has indicated that Baker will work out of the bullpen and maybe make a spot start during as the season winds down, which means he's got almost no shot at starting a playoff game.
Then, Baker becomes part of a bit of a roster crunch. With the abbreviated rotation and extra days off during postseason play, there's little reason to carry more than 11 pitchers, and the Twins will already have one starter in the bullpen. There's no sense in carrying Baker as an extra mop-up guy, and it's anyone's guess whether Gardenhire would be willing to use him in tight late-inning situations.
I'll say this much: If Baker is left off the playoff roster at the expense of Matt Guerrier or Jon Rauch, I think it's a mistake. Baker has better stuff and would be a more effective weapon in middle relief.
4) Can Justin Morneau return?
It's the question that continues to resonate quietly through Twins Territory. Morneau was an MVP front-runner when he went down with a concussion in early July, and he hasn't played since. The Twins still haven't officially shut Morneau down for the season, and recent reports have the first baseman "feeling really good," so hope lingers on.
There are only 13 games left in the season and probably not enough time for Morneau to sharpen his skills with a stint down in Florida and jump back in right where he left off with the Twins. If we're being realistic, the chances of Morneau starting at first base and batting cleanup in Game 1 of the ALDS are close to nil.
But one thing that I've contemplated lately is the possibility that Morneau might return to the Twins strictly as a bench threat in October. Even accounting for his time away from the game, Morneau still figures to be a far better pinch-hitting threat than anything else the Twins can muster, especially with Jim Thome likely to be an every-game starter.
Using Morneau in this limited role would prevent him from having his rust exposed in the field and would set the stage for some unbelievable October dramatics. It might not be very likely, but right now I'd say it's the best shot we've got at seeing Morneau again this year.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
A Plea to Nick Blackburn
The Twins gave Nick Blackburn every chance to battle through his struggles this year. They were patient with their contact-happy right-hander, freshly signed to a four-year contract extension; patient to a fault, in my opinion. But when Blackburn turned in another dud on July 18, allowing five runs on nine hits over just five innings in a key game against the White Sox (in which Brian Duensing's lengthy and outstanding relief appearance aided a Twins victory), Ron Gardenhire and the Twins coaching staff could no longer find a way to justify his continued presence in the rotation.
They did what had to be done. They demoted Blackburn and his 6.53 ERA to the bullpen. After one shaky relief appearance, Blackburn was sent to the minors. He hadn't been there since late in the 2007 season.
Back in Triple-A Rochester, Blackburn seemed to quickly regain his confidence against inferior hitters. In his first three starts with the Red Wings, he allowed only two runs on 11 hits over 16 1/3 innings while ratcheting up his ground ball rate. Despite the fact that Blackburn looked significantly worse in his fourth start with Rochester (5.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER), he got the call back to the big-league club, as Kevin Slowey's aching elbow had opened a vacancy in the rotation. Francisco Liriano's bout with a tired arm necessitated that Blackburn start Monday night's game, on his first day back with the team.
Despite Blackburn's 2.49 ERA and 65 percent GB rate during his minor-league stint, I was skeptical as to how he'd perform on a hot Texas night against a playoff-caliber offense. But you know what? He pitched damn well. In seven innings, Blackburn allowed only three runs, and for once I can say his results don't accurately reflect how effective he was. A couple infield singles led to damage in the first, and a muffed routine double play by J.J. Hardy allowed a run to cross in the fifth. All in all, Blackburn didn't allow much hard contact and looked a lot more like his 2008/09 self.
Now, I'm not naive enough to believe that this one start signifies a 180-degree turnaround for Blackburn. I've watched him get mashed up by opposing offenses too many times this year to be so easily convinced. What I offer is a plea to Blackburn: please, keep it going.
We know you're capable of it. We remember your final five games last season, when you bounced back from a brutal eight-week slump to lead the Twins to four pivotal victories down the stretch in the regular season (posting a 1.65 ERA) and then nearly helped pilot them to a victory at Yankee Stadium with a gritty ALDS performance. Heck, even more recently, we remember how you bounced back from an awful April this season to win all five of your May starts, posting a 2.65 ERA.
Now would be a great time for you to put together one of your little signature runs. Because the Twins are trying to build separation in the division standings and Slowey's status is uncertain. This time, there's no Brian Duensing to be called upon if you should fail; Glen Perkins and Jeff Manship are simply not appealing fallback options.
You are a pitcher who has had many ups and downs in your young career. This season has mostly been a valley, but you can erase a lot of ill will by stepping up now, in the rotation's time of need.
It's not like you haven't done it before.
They did what had to be done. They demoted Blackburn and his 6.53 ERA to the bullpen. After one shaky relief appearance, Blackburn was sent to the minors. He hadn't been there since late in the 2007 season.
Back in Triple-A Rochester, Blackburn seemed to quickly regain his confidence against inferior hitters. In his first three starts with the Red Wings, he allowed only two runs on 11 hits over 16 1/3 innings while ratcheting up his ground ball rate. Despite the fact that Blackburn looked significantly worse in his fourth start with Rochester (5.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER), he got the call back to the big-league club, as Kevin Slowey's aching elbow had opened a vacancy in the rotation. Francisco Liriano's bout with a tired arm necessitated that Blackburn start Monday night's game, on his first day back with the team.
Despite Blackburn's 2.49 ERA and 65 percent GB rate during his minor-league stint, I was skeptical as to how he'd perform on a hot Texas night against a playoff-caliber offense. But you know what? He pitched damn well. In seven innings, Blackburn allowed only three runs, and for once I can say his results don't accurately reflect how effective he was. A couple infield singles led to damage in the first, and a muffed routine double play by J.J. Hardy allowed a run to cross in the fifth. All in all, Blackburn didn't allow much hard contact and looked a lot more like his 2008/09 self.
Now, I'm not naive enough to believe that this one start signifies a 180-degree turnaround for Blackburn. I've watched him get mashed up by opposing offenses too many times this year to be so easily convinced. What I offer is a plea to Blackburn: please, keep it going.
We know you're capable of it. We remember your final five games last season, when you bounced back from a brutal eight-week slump to lead the Twins to four pivotal victories down the stretch in the regular season (posting a 1.65 ERA) and then nearly helped pilot them to a victory at Yankee Stadium with a gritty ALDS performance. Heck, even more recently, we remember how you bounced back from an awful April this season to win all five of your May starts, posting a 2.65 ERA.
Now would be a great time for you to put together one of your little signature runs. Because the Twins are trying to build separation in the division standings and Slowey's status is uncertain. This time, there's no Brian Duensing to be called upon if you should fail; Glen Perkins and Jeff Manship are simply not appealing fallback options.
You are a pitcher who has had many ups and downs in your young career. This season has mostly been a valley, but you can erase a lot of ill will by stepping up now, in the rotation's time of need.
It's not like you haven't done it before.
Monday, August 23, 2010
A Test in Texas
The Twins' impressive late-summer run, which has seen them go 26-10 since the All-Star break, has largely been keyed by strong starting pitching. After posting a 4.60 ERA and surrendering 68 homers in 88 games prior to the Midsummer Classic, Twins starters have been good for a 3.38 ERA with only 14 homers allowed in 36 games since the season's unofficial midpoint.
That improvement can be a bit misleading, since the Twins have played 19 of those 36 games against the Orioles, Royals, Indians and Athletics -- the four lowest-scoring offenses in the American League. Other games have come against a sub-.500 Angels squad and a White Sox team that was in the thick of the division race up until recently but is spiraling and dropped two of three to the Royals over the weekend.
Indeed, it appears that the only playoff-caliber team the Twins have faced during their impressive post-All-Star stretch has been the Rays, in a series where the Twins' pitching staff had its share of both highs and lows.
Tonight, the Twins will finally get another legitimate test as they head into Arlington to face the AL West leading Rangers. This series poses a number of challenges that should tell us a lot about how both clubs might potentially fare in an October series.
The Twins will have their pitching depth tested right away tonight, as they send Nick Blackburn to the hill to take on the American League's fourth highest scoring offense. Blackburn was, of course, an utter disaster over the first half of the season with the Twins, but he did post a 2.49 ERA and 65 percent grounder rate during his four-start stint in the minors. How will those numbers translate to the bigs, where Blackburn will be taking on a division-leading club led by MVP front-runner Josh Hamilton?
While Blackburn's results will be interesting and meaningful, especially if Kevin Slowey's elbow injury turns out to be a long-term concern, the remainder of the series will provide a better glimpse into a potential postseason match-up, as the Twins will send out Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano on Tuesday and Thursday. Brian Duensing, who starts between the two on Wednesday, is looking increasingly likely to grab a spot in a playoff rotation as well based on recent performance.
Given that both struggled in their last turns on the hill, I'll be interested to see how Pavano and Liriano rebound. The spotlight will shine brightly on Liriano, who was originally scheduled to start tonight but had his turn pushed back due to a bout with dead arm. He must show improved command to restore confidence that has begun to wane with three straight erratic outings. He's got his work cut out for him, as he's scheduled to face Cliff Lee on Thursday.
Of particular interest, for me, will be seeing how the Twins' top two starters handle Texas runners on the base paths. Pavano's complete inability to stop opposing base runners from swiping bags has been perhaps his greatest downfall in what has otherwise been a stellar campaign. Opponents are 28-for-34 on stolen bases against Pavano in 25 starts. Liriano hasn't been quite as bad, as he's only allowed 10 steals on 13 chances, but he did allow Juan Pierre to steal second without a throw twice in his last start.
The Rangers rank fifth in the AL in stolen bases. The Rays rank first. If they want to win in October, the Twins must prove that they can control the running game. So far, they've not been able to do that very well even with their best pitchers on the mound and their Gold Glove catcher behind the plate.
That improvement can be a bit misleading, since the Twins have played 19 of those 36 games against the Orioles, Royals, Indians and Athletics -- the four lowest-scoring offenses in the American League. Other games have come against a sub-.500 Angels squad and a White Sox team that was in the thick of the division race up until recently but is spiraling and dropped two of three to the Royals over the weekend.
Indeed, it appears that the only playoff-caliber team the Twins have faced during their impressive post-All-Star stretch has been the Rays, in a series where the Twins' pitching staff had its share of both highs and lows.
Tonight, the Twins will finally get another legitimate test as they head into Arlington to face the AL West leading Rangers. This series poses a number of challenges that should tell us a lot about how both clubs might potentially fare in an October series.
The Twins will have their pitching depth tested right away tonight, as they send Nick Blackburn to the hill to take on the American League's fourth highest scoring offense. Blackburn was, of course, an utter disaster over the first half of the season with the Twins, but he did post a 2.49 ERA and 65 percent grounder rate during his four-start stint in the minors. How will those numbers translate to the bigs, where Blackburn will be taking on a division-leading club led by MVP front-runner Josh Hamilton?
While Blackburn's results will be interesting and meaningful, especially if Kevin Slowey's elbow injury turns out to be a long-term concern, the remainder of the series will provide a better glimpse into a potential postseason match-up, as the Twins will send out Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano on Tuesday and Thursday. Brian Duensing, who starts between the two on Wednesday, is looking increasingly likely to grab a spot in a playoff rotation as well based on recent performance.
Given that both struggled in their last turns on the hill, I'll be interested to see how Pavano and Liriano rebound. The spotlight will shine brightly on Liriano, who was originally scheduled to start tonight but had his turn pushed back due to a bout with dead arm. He must show improved command to restore confidence that has begun to wane with three straight erratic outings. He's got his work cut out for him, as he's scheduled to face Cliff Lee on Thursday.
Of particular interest, for me, will be seeing how the Twins' top two starters handle Texas runners on the base paths. Pavano's complete inability to stop opposing base runners from swiping bags has been perhaps his greatest downfall in what has otherwise been a stellar campaign. Opponents are 28-for-34 on stolen bases against Pavano in 25 starts. Liriano hasn't been quite as bad, as he's only allowed 10 steals on 13 chances, but he did allow Juan Pierre to steal second without a throw twice in his last start.
The Rangers rank fifth in the AL in stolen bases. The Rays rank first. If they want to win in October, the Twins must prove that they can control the running game. So far, they've not been able to do that very well even with their best pitchers on the mound and their Gold Glove catcher behind the plate.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
If the Playoffs Started Today...
With their victory last night, the Twins moved four games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. With their two best starters taking the mound in the final two games of the series, the Twins stand a good chance of holding a four- or six-game lead by the time the Sox leave town. With only 41 games remaining on the schedule (and with nearly a quarter of Chicago's remaining games coming against the Yankees and Red Sox), the Twins would have to be feeling pretty good about their chances.
Sure, the postseason is still a long ways away and we're getting ahead of ourselves by presuming that the Twins will be there. But, considering the resurgence of the bottom half the rotation, it is interesting to start thinking about which pitchers might get a chance to start in October.
Sure, the postseason is still a long ways away and we're getting ahead of ourselves by presuming that the Twins will be there. But, considering the resurgence of the bottom half the rotation, it is interesting to start thinking about which pitchers might get a chance to start in October.
While Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano are clearly in line to be your starters in the first two games of a postseason series (provided things don't come down to the wire in the AL Central again, deriving Ron Gardenhire of the ability to properly set up his rotation), it's not clear who might get the ball in Game 3 and a potential Game 4.
Traditionally, teams will go to a three- or four-man rotation in the playoffs. It's tough to predict which of those routes Gardenhire would choose, since he has done both in the past, but I suspect that if things are going as well as they are right now he'll use four starters. So today's question is this: If the ALDS were to start today, which two starters among the Twins' bottom three would you call upon to start in Games 3 and 4?
Early this summer, when Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn were all sputtering along, the question would have presented a "pick your poison" type of dilemma. However, now that Slowey and Baker have stepped their games up (last night's poor showing by Baker notwithstanding) while Brian Duensing has done an outstanding job replacing Blackburn, it's somewhat difficult to choose a guy to exclude.
I'll present a few strengths and weaknesses for each option and let you reach your own conclusions.
Kevin Slowey
Season Stats: 134.1 IP, 11-5, 4.22 ERA, 98/25 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP
Why He Should Start: Slowey is currently the hottest pitcher in the Twins' rotation. He notably hurled seven no-hit innings against the Athletics on Sunday, and is 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA and only one homer allowed over his past five starts. After displaying uncharacteristically shaky command early in the season, Slowey had issued one or zero walks in each of his past 16 starts prior to Sunday.
Why He Shouldn't Start: Slowey's recent success is a little misleading since it has mostly come against lousy offenses. His four quality starts during the aforementioned five-game span have come against Oakland, Seattle, Baltimore and Cleveland, which happen to be the four lowest scoring offenses in the American League. One has to wonder how his stuff would play against a playoff-caliber lineup in October, especially considering that he has no real big-game experience. He also has rarely pitched past the sixth inning this season and has recently battled some elbow soreness.
Scott Baker
Season Stats: 144.2 IP, 10-9, 4.85 ERA, 121/31 K/BB, 1.32 4WHIP
Why He Should Start: On the surface, Baker looks like the obvious odd man out. His overall numbers don't compare favorably with either of his competitors in this race, and surely most fans have a sour taste in their mouth after he failed to protect a four-run lead against the White Sox last night. But let's look more closely. If the playoffs started today, the other three entrants from the American League would be Texas, New York and Tampa Bay. It seems fairly likely that those three outstanding teams will hold their ground until October. In five starts against those three opponents, Baker owns a 2.53 ERA and has posted a 31-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 32 innings. That's pretty dominant and suggests that, while Baker's results have been inconsistent this year, he has not cowered against top teams. He's also the most experienced member of the group.
Why He Shouldn't Start: The aforementioned inconsistency is a serious concern with Baker. On certain days he looks dazzling, while on others he's prone to leaving multiple pitches hanging over the plate. It's no surprise that he leads the team in home runs allowed with 21, and in tightly contested postseason games that susceptibility to coughing up the long ball can be a death knell. Baker's K/BB ratio is fantastic, but with opponents hitting .284 and slugging .483 against him, one would have to be wary sending him to the hill for a key postseason start.
Brian Duensing
Season Stats: 76.1 IP, 6-1, 2.00 ERA, 42/19 K/BB, 1.05 WHIP
Why He Should Start: For a second consecutive season, Duensing has stepped into the Twins rotation and played the role of savior, providing big start after big start. Since taking over for the beleaguered Blackburn, Duensing has gone 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA in five starts, highlighting his impressive run with a shutout of the A's on Saturday. Despite lacking the ability to miss bats at the rate of Baker or Slowey, Duensing has been the least hittable member of the group this year as he's holding opponents to a measly .223 average. He's also given up only five home runs. In last year's ALDS, circumstances forced Duensing to take the mound in Game 1 and he held his own against the Yankees in New York, so he's no stranger to the pressures of October.
Why He Shouldn't Start: The main reason Duensing shouldn't be in the postseason rotation, and the reason I would probably choose him as the odd man out, actually has nothing to do with any particular flaw in his game. He's simply far more valuable to the bullpen than Baker or Slowey. Duensing was a tremendous asset to the Twins relief corps over the first several months of the season, posting a 1.67 ERA over 39 appearances and coming up big in several high-leverage situations. He has held left-handed hitters to a .143 average and .414 OPS this season. With Jose Mijares' health being in flux and with Ron Mahay being Ron Mahay, Duensing figures to be the Twins' top weapon against tough left-handed hitters come October.
At least that's my take. Obviously, things can change in a hurry over the next several weeks and it's possible that injuries or performance will make the decision a far easier one by the time the postseason rolls around. As things currently stand, though, I'd have Slowey and Baker starting the third and fourth games of a postseason series (though if it was an elimination game, I might be tempted to start Pavano or Liriano on short rest in Game 4).
What about you? If things stay roughly the same as they are now, how would you structure a Twins playoff rotation?
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
All About Pitching
At the outset of the season, any of three different teams could have reasonably been picked as favorite in the American League Central: the Twins, Tigers or White Sox. All three had been contenders within the past couple years, and all three had made moves to improve their roster during the offseason. Many pegged the Tigers -- who'd pushed the Twins to a tiebreaker the year before and infused some young talent over the winter -- as the most dangerous divisional opponent. Personally, the team that scared me most was the White Sox, and for one key reason: pitching.
Between Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Freddy Garcia (not to mention top prospect Dan Hudson in the minors), the Sox entered the season with a deep rotation that ranked as easily the best in the division and perhaps the best in the league.
Sure enough, the White Sox have rebounded from a slow start to put on a clinic here in the middle months. Since dropping 9.5 games out of first place with a 24-33 record on June 8, Chicago has gone 39-17 and rocketed back to the top of the division. The hugely impressive run has largely come as the result of consistently outstanding work from Chicago's starters, who rank fifth in the AL (and first in the Central) with a 3.95 ERA.
Despite losing Peavy for the season back in early July, the Sox have gotten excellent production from Danks (3.30 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) and Floyd (3.49 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) while Buehrle and Garcia have mostly been steady (last night's dud from Garcia not withstanding). The team also recently added Edwin Jackson, who has posted a 1.38 ERA and 13-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first two starts since coming aboard. (Not that I expect Jackson to be an asset down the stretch -- silly trade.)
As most readers of this blog are likely aware, starting pitching was an Achilles Heel for the Twins over the first half of the season, with 60 percent of the rotation turning in hugely underwhelming performances. Yet, since the All-Star break, the struggling Twins rotation has found its way back on track. Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano, who have been the unit's steadiest members all year long, have continued to dominate opposing lineups while Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey have shown marked improvement and Brian Duensing has performed well in the place of demoted Nick Blackburn.
Since the All-Star break, the Twins have gone 18-7. During that 25-game stretch, they've held opponents to an average of 3.3 runs per game. In all but three of the 18 victories, they have allowed four runs or fewer. The offense has been good, to be sure (as Phil Mackey noted earlier this week, the Twins have led the majors in batting average, on-base percentage, runs, hits, doubles and triples over the past month), but that is the sign of a team being carried by its pitching staff.
Of course, it is necessary to note that the Twins have faced a soft schedule since the break, but the impressive stretch includes a four-game series against Tampa in which the Twins held arguably the best team in baseball to a reasonable average of 4.25 runs per contest. More importantly, they did it on the road, where their ERA is nearly a run higher and they've given up almost twice as many home runs.
The Twins have a clear offensive edge on the Sox, even moreso if Justin Morneau is able to rejoin the team at full strength somewhere along the line. But, in order to come out on top of this well-contested division, the Twins are going to need to keep up their fine work on the mound.
Tonight, they will be forced to start Glen Perkins in a key game, and it likely won't be the last time their pitching depth is tested here in the final months. The Twins reclaimed first place last night with authority, but their ultimate fate hinges upon the continued health and production of the starting rotation. They won't be scoring 12 runs against a team like the White Sox very often.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Shifting Priorities
A few weeks ago, fans were in desperation for the addition of a starting pitcher to Minnesota's struggling rotation. However, with the two most enticing pieces off the board now that Cliff Lee is in Texas and Dan Haren is in Anaheim, it's starting to appear as though the Twins might be better served holding off on the starting pitcher market as the deadline approaches.
Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey both reminded us of what they're capable of over the weekend. Granted, it was against the lowly Orioles, but both hurlers snapped trends of poor road performance by dominating the Birds and picking up much-needed victories. Despite their poor overall numbers, Baker has a 3.77 xFIP and Slowey is at 4.56. Those figures would be perfectly acceptable for mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters, which is what both Baker and Slowey have become while Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano have clearly established themselves as the team's top starters. I see no reason why Baker and Slowey shouldn't be able to match -- or even exceed -- those xFIP numbers during the final two months of the season.
The only pitcher who very clearly needed to be replaced in the Twins' rotation was Nick Blackburn, and that's happened. Given his mediocre track record in the minors and his low strikeout rate, I have no illusions of Brian Duensing taking the world by storm and single-handedly turning around the fortunes of this rotation. However, it can't be ignored that Duensing has accumulated a 2.93 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 132 big-league innings -- including a 2.65 ERA in 10 starts -- and he looked outstanding while pitching five innings of one-run ball against the Orioles on Friday night.
Surely Duensing will hit his bumps and one can hardly expect that quality outings against the league's worst team will set both Baker and Slowey straight. But these three have all demonstrated in the past that they are very capable major-league pitchers and if they all pitch to their level of ability while Pavano and Liriano continue their fine work, the Twins can boast a perfectly competent rotation over the final months capable of carrying the club to October.
Relying on Baker and Slowey to get things ironed out may not strike people as an ideal situation considering how terribly inconsistent they've both been this season, but none of the available trade targets represent a surefire upgrade. Haren and Lee are gone, and I'm guessing that the Twins (perhaps wisely) are unwilling to do what it takes to acquire Roy Oswalt. While it's possible that someone like Ted Lilly or Brett Myers might be a superior option to Slowey or Duensing over the remainder of the season, to me the upgrade is not likely or substantial enough to merit the prospects and financial resources that would be required to make a deal.
Instead of focusing on starting pitching, Bill Smith and the Twins should shift their focus to other areas of growing concern. One is the bullpen. Duensing has been one of the team's best relievers all year long, so his removal from the 'pen creates a hole in the middle innings. The Twins might want to seek a mid-tier relief option (since front-line relievers like Scott Downs will likely prove too costly), although they could just as easily call up Kyle Waldrop since they have two lefties in the bullpen as is. There's also the matter of Jon Rauch, who owns a 7.11 ERA and 2.69 WHIP in seven July appearances, but if anyone is going to be replacing him in the closer spot I'd guess it would be Jesse Crain.
Bullpen issues aside, it's seeming more and more like the Twins might have to look at adding another bat within the next week, something that wouldn't have seemed like a possible consideration a few weeks ago. Justin Morneau remains out of the lineup indefinitely due to a concussion and now Orlando Hudson has joined him on the shelf due to a strained oblique. Given the ambiguous nature of both injuries, it's tough to gauge when either crucial contributor might return, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that both could be lost for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, Joe Mauer is clearly banged up, as he has caught only two of the team's past five games and it's no coincidence that a third catcher was called up to join the roster yesterday.
With a number of key hitters going at less than 100 percent and two others out of the lineup completely, one has to wonder how the offense will hold up. Despite his heralded game-calling ability, Drew Butera severely weakens the Twins lineup every time he starts, and Alexi Casilla will most likely prove to be a liability in the No. 2 spot. Fans groaned when they saw Sunday's makeshift lineup, but we're likely to see more of where that came from in the coming weeks if these nagging injuries persist.
I'm not saying the Twins should go out and get Adam Dunn, but if they deem the injuries to Morneau and/or Hudson to be long-term concerns, they'd be wise to kick the tires on a few available hitters.
Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey both reminded us of what they're capable of over the weekend. Granted, it was against the lowly Orioles, but both hurlers snapped trends of poor road performance by dominating the Birds and picking up much-needed victories. Despite their poor overall numbers, Baker has a 3.77 xFIP and Slowey is at 4.56. Those figures would be perfectly acceptable for mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters, which is what both Baker and Slowey have become while Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano have clearly established themselves as the team's top starters. I see no reason why Baker and Slowey shouldn't be able to match -- or even exceed -- those xFIP numbers during the final two months of the season.
The only pitcher who very clearly needed to be replaced in the Twins' rotation was Nick Blackburn, and that's happened. Given his mediocre track record in the minors and his low strikeout rate, I have no illusions of Brian Duensing taking the world by storm and single-handedly turning around the fortunes of this rotation. However, it can't be ignored that Duensing has accumulated a 2.93 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 132 big-league innings -- including a 2.65 ERA in 10 starts -- and he looked outstanding while pitching five innings of one-run ball against the Orioles on Friday night.
Surely Duensing will hit his bumps and one can hardly expect that quality outings against the league's worst team will set both Baker and Slowey straight. But these three have all demonstrated in the past that they are very capable major-league pitchers and if they all pitch to their level of ability while Pavano and Liriano continue their fine work, the Twins can boast a perfectly competent rotation over the final months capable of carrying the club to October.
Relying on Baker and Slowey to get things ironed out may not strike people as an ideal situation considering how terribly inconsistent they've both been this season, but none of the available trade targets represent a surefire upgrade. Haren and Lee are gone, and I'm guessing that the Twins (perhaps wisely) are unwilling to do what it takes to acquire Roy Oswalt. While it's possible that someone like Ted Lilly or Brett Myers might be a superior option to Slowey or Duensing over the remainder of the season, to me the upgrade is not likely or substantial enough to merit the prospects and financial resources that would be required to make a deal.
Instead of focusing on starting pitching, Bill Smith and the Twins should shift their focus to other areas of growing concern. One is the bullpen. Duensing has been one of the team's best relievers all year long, so his removal from the 'pen creates a hole in the middle innings. The Twins might want to seek a mid-tier relief option (since front-line relievers like Scott Downs will likely prove too costly), although they could just as easily call up Kyle Waldrop since they have two lefties in the bullpen as is. There's also the matter of Jon Rauch, who owns a 7.11 ERA and 2.69 WHIP in seven July appearances, but if anyone is going to be replacing him in the closer spot I'd guess it would be Jesse Crain.
Bullpen issues aside, it's seeming more and more like the Twins might have to look at adding another bat within the next week, something that wouldn't have seemed like a possible consideration a few weeks ago. Justin Morneau remains out of the lineup indefinitely due to a concussion and now Orlando Hudson has joined him on the shelf due to a strained oblique. Given the ambiguous nature of both injuries, it's tough to gauge when either crucial contributor might return, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that both could be lost for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, Joe Mauer is clearly banged up, as he has caught only two of the team's past five games and it's no coincidence that a third catcher was called up to join the roster yesterday.
With a number of key hitters going at less than 100 percent and two others out of the lineup completely, one has to wonder how the offense will hold up. Despite his heralded game-calling ability, Drew Butera severely weakens the Twins lineup every time he starts, and Alexi Casilla will most likely prove to be a liability in the No. 2 spot. Fans groaned when they saw Sunday's makeshift lineup, but we're likely to see more of where that came from in the coming weeks if these nagging injuries persist.
I'm not saying the Twins should go out and get Adam Dunn, but if they deem the injuries to Morneau and/or Hudson to be long-term concerns, they'd be wise to kick the tires on a few available hitters.
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