Teams generally enter every season with a few question marks in the rotation. The Twins, unfortunately, look like they'll head into the 2012 campaign with five.
With each starter slated to occupy a spot in Minnesota's rotation, there is a fair amount of upside and also significant downside. At this point there's no way to know which versions of these various Jekyll-and-Hyde acts we'll be seeing, so all we can do is hope that the Twins can come up heads more often than tails as they seek to improve on a league-worst pitching performance in 2011.
Carl Pavano has officially been tabbed as Opening Day starter – an honor that he's earned since he's the only member of this unit who threw more than 150 innings last year. In 2010 he was a highly effective innings-eater and arguably the most valuable starter on a 94-win team. Last year his results were thoroughly mediocre as he allowed more hits than any other pitcher in the league.
Heads, he remembers how to miss a few extra bats and returns to the form he showed while winning 17 games two years ago. Tails, his performance continues to descend as he ages into his late 30s.
Francisco Liriano was stellar in 2010, picking up Cy Young votes while striking out 200 hitters and earning a Game 1 ALDS start. Last year his ERA never dropped below 4.59 as he battled injuries and control issues that plagued him right up until the end of the campaign.
Heads, he regains his fastball command and helps power the top of a solid rotation. Tails, the problems that haunted him in 2011 remain present, leading to continued inconsistency and frustration before the non-competitive Twins trade him for peanuts at the deadline.
Scott Baker is the only member of this bunch who actually took care of business in 2011, and naturally his season was cut short by persisting elbow problems. Though his first-half success made him a borderline All-Star, he threw only 24 innings after the break.
Heads, Baker finally shrugs off the arm troubles that have plagued him intermittently throughout the past two seasons to pile up 200 frames for the first time since 2009. Tails, his elbow keeps on barking and limits him once again, perhaps leading to surgery.
Nick Blackburn has been a reliable, mid-rotation workhorse when healthy, hurling 400 innings with a 4.04 ERA between 2008 and 2009. Sadly, he hasn't been able to stay healthy since, and recently underwent arm surgery for a second consecutive offseason.
Heads, Blackburn overcomes his flaws and serves as an average, yet valuable, anchor in the No. 4 spot. Tails, the hits keep on coming and he struggles to another shortened and substandard campaign.
Finally, Jason Marquis is the newcomer in this equation. If he repeated his 4.43 ERA posted with the Nats last year, he'd be a decent enough fifth starter. But a 4.55 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the course of a career that's been spent entirely in the inferior NL don't bode well.
Heads, Marquis proves to be a serviceable piece at the end of the rotation, perhaps until a better option emerges in the minors. Tails, he follows the path of former bargain bin veterans like Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez, dropping before the season's halfway through.
It's not often that you see someone flip heads five times in a row, but it happens, and if these five could live up to their potential the Twins would boast a very respectable starting corps.
Unfortunately, these coins appear to be weighted, and not in a good way. Pavano is in the twilight of his career. Liriano had a discouraging run in winter ball. Baker hasn't really been healthy since '09, and neither has Blackburn. Marquis just ain't very good.
I rue the thought of the Twins pitching staff giving up 800-plus runs again this year, and I'm holding out hope that they can turn things around drastically. Given the talent present, it's certain possible.
But I wouldn't bet on those odds. Would you?
Showing posts with label blackburn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label blackburn. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
Monday, January 09, 2012
Is Nick Blackburn Undervalued?
One couldn't be blamed for writing off Nick Blackburn as an afterthought in the Twins' 2012 starting pitching equation.
After all, he's been pretty bad over the past two seasons. In fact, "pretty bad" might be an understatement – he's been one of baseball's most hittable pitchers, prone to stretches of mind-numbingly horrible performance. His once-premier walk rate has deteriorated into mediocrity, leaving him with little in the way of strengths to fall back on.
So it's easy to forget the fact that, prior to 2010, Blackburn was a pretty dang valuable pitcher. After emerging as a legitimate prospect in 2007, he became a staple in the Twins' rotation, hurling around 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009.
After that '09 campaign, the Twins signed Blackburn to a four-year extension worth $14 million. It was a totally unnecessary move that has unsurprisingly backfired, but there was valid reason for the club's faith in the right-hander. Over that two-year stretch, Blackburn was indisputably their most reliable starting pitcher.
Yes, he has been mostly a mess over the past two seasons, and there's a temptation to profile those struggles as symptomatic of his non-dominant, pitch-to-contact approach. But that was the same style he employed while serving as a steady boon amidst the rotation in his first two seasons.
Indeed, his troubles in 2010 and 2011 have very likely stemmed from health issues more than anything else. And while that's not reason to excuse them, it's a fact that should provide fans with hope that he can return to form if his latest surgery takes.
In his first year at Target Field, Blackburn finished with a 5.42 ERA and career-low 3.8 K/9 rate over 161 innings. Ugly numbers, to be sure, but after the season it was revealed that he had (perhaps foolishly) been pitching through elbow discomfort for much of the year. Shortly after the Twins were ousted from the playoffs, he underwent minor surgery on the elbow.
Early on in 2011, Blackburn appeared to have returned to form. Over the first three months of the season, he looked as good as ever, turning in a 3.64 ERA over 101 innings. He was on pace for another solid 200-inning campaign, but things quickly derailed around the halfway point; after the start of July, Blackburn made only 10 more starts, posting a 6.32 ERA over 47 innings while allowing 70 hits and 26 walks.
The sagging control stood out as the most worrisome red flag for the righty, who even during his rough spells had traditionally thrown the ball over the plate. After issuing four walks while recording just four outs against the Yankees on August 21st, Blackburn was pulled and shut down for the season. He'd later be diagnosed with an entrapped nerve in his forearm, for which he underwent surgery in late September.
This procedure was more serious than the one in 2010, as it left Blackburn in a splint for six weeks, but he's expected to be ready for spring training. He'll be one of several question marks among the club's starting pitching crop this year, but it's important to bear in mind that when he's been healthy, Blackburn has been a legitimate asset to the rotation.
His $4.75 million salary – guaranteed as the result of that misguided extension inked two years ago – currently looks like a liability. But it's entirely possible that by the end of the season, it'll look like a solid bargain.
Like with so many other Twins players this year, it will all come down to health.
After all, he's been pretty bad over the past two seasons. In fact, "pretty bad" might be an understatement – he's been one of baseball's most hittable pitchers, prone to stretches of mind-numbingly horrible performance. His once-premier walk rate has deteriorated into mediocrity, leaving him with little in the way of strengths to fall back on.
So it's easy to forget the fact that, prior to 2010, Blackburn was a pretty dang valuable pitcher. After emerging as a legitimate prospect in 2007, he became a staple in the Twins' rotation, hurling around 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009.
After that '09 campaign, the Twins signed Blackburn to a four-year extension worth $14 million. It was a totally unnecessary move that has unsurprisingly backfired, but there was valid reason for the club's faith in the right-hander. Over that two-year stretch, Blackburn was indisputably their most reliable starting pitcher.
Yes, he has been mostly a mess over the past two seasons, and there's a temptation to profile those struggles as symptomatic of his non-dominant, pitch-to-contact approach. But that was the same style he employed while serving as a steady boon amidst the rotation in his first two seasons.
Indeed, his troubles in 2010 and 2011 have very likely stemmed from health issues more than anything else. And while that's not reason to excuse them, it's a fact that should provide fans with hope that he can return to form if his latest surgery takes.
In his first year at Target Field, Blackburn finished with a 5.42 ERA and career-low 3.8 K/9 rate over 161 innings. Ugly numbers, to be sure, but after the season it was revealed that he had (perhaps foolishly) been pitching through elbow discomfort for much of the year. Shortly after the Twins were ousted from the playoffs, he underwent minor surgery on the elbow.
Early on in 2011, Blackburn appeared to have returned to form. Over the first three months of the season, he looked as good as ever, turning in a 3.64 ERA over 101 innings. He was on pace for another solid 200-inning campaign, but things quickly derailed around the halfway point; after the start of July, Blackburn made only 10 more starts, posting a 6.32 ERA over 47 innings while allowing 70 hits and 26 walks.
The sagging control stood out as the most worrisome red flag for the righty, who even during his rough spells had traditionally thrown the ball over the plate. After issuing four walks while recording just four outs against the Yankees on August 21st, Blackburn was pulled and shut down for the season. He'd later be diagnosed with an entrapped nerve in his forearm, for which he underwent surgery in late September.
This procedure was more serious than the one in 2010, as it left Blackburn in a splint for six weeks, but he's expected to be ready for spring training. He'll be one of several question marks among the club's starting pitching crop this year, but it's important to bear in mind that when he's been healthy, Blackburn has been a legitimate asset to the rotation.
His $4.75 million salary – guaranteed as the result of that misguided extension inked two years ago – currently looks like a liability. But it's entirely possible that by the end of the season, it'll look like a solid bargain.
Like with so many other Twins players this year, it will all come down to health.
Thursday, August 04, 2011
Pavano and Blackburn: Contact Kings
Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn haven't had particularly memorable seasons up to this point, but at least they do find themselves atop the American League leader board in one category: hits allowed.
Pavano has yielded 168 knocks this season, more than any other AL hurler. Blackburn, with 158, comes in second.
Hey, it's something, right?
The rate at which these two pitchers have given up hits should come as no huge surprise, as both have been quite hittable throughout their respective careers. In 2009, Blackburn led the AL with 240 hits allowed while Pavano checked in third at 235. Last year, Pavano ranked fourth at 227 and Blackburn (limited to only 161 innings due to injury and a minor-league demotion) ranked 15th, allowing the same number of hits as Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez (194) in 88 fewer innings.
There's no mystery as to why Pavano and Blackburn are coughing up hits with such generosity. Pavano's 3.7 K/9 rate is the lowest in all of baseball, while Blackburn's rate of 4.8 (which would actually be the best of his career) is the ninth-worst in the AL.
The Twins continue to preach pitching to contact as if it's some generally desirable trait, but the truth is that exorbitant contact rates are these pitchers' greatest downfalls. It's exceedingly difficult to find sustained success while giving up hits at a higher clip than almost any other pitcher in baseball, and while Pavano and Blackburn ease their burden by limiting walks, it's difficult to expect anything better than back-of-the-rotation mediocrity unless they run through a prolonged period of good luck (as Pavano did through the first four months or so last year).
It's a rule of thumb in baseball that about 3 out of every 10 balls put in play will turn into a hit. In his eye-opening article for Baseball Nation yesterday, Jeff Sullivan found that, since 1970, even position players who have taken to the mound have registered a .296 BABIP.
By letting hitters put almost everything in play, you walk a dangerous line, and we've been reminded of that over these last several weeks. Since the start of July, Pavano owns a 6.87 ERA and Blackburn is at 7.45. These performances have contributed to a screeching halt in momentum for a rotation that looked spectacular in June.
Pavano and Blackburn have both certainly proven that they are capable of succeeding in spite of their heavy contact tendencies, but it should be intuitively obvious that it's not a reliable recipe for sustained success.
The two are under contract next year for a combined $13.25 million. It's more than likely that they'll once again be two of the most hittable pitchers in the majors.
You reap what you sow, I guess.
Pavano has yielded 168 knocks this season, more than any other AL hurler. Blackburn, with 158, comes in second.
Hey, it's something, right?
The rate at which these two pitchers have given up hits should come as no huge surprise, as both have been quite hittable throughout their respective careers. In 2009, Blackburn led the AL with 240 hits allowed while Pavano checked in third at 235. Last year, Pavano ranked fourth at 227 and Blackburn (limited to only 161 innings due to injury and a minor-league demotion) ranked 15th, allowing the same number of hits as Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez (194) in 88 fewer innings.
There's no mystery as to why Pavano and Blackburn are coughing up hits with such generosity. Pavano's 3.7 K/9 rate is the lowest in all of baseball, while Blackburn's rate of 4.8 (which would actually be the best of his career) is the ninth-worst in the AL.
The Twins continue to preach pitching to contact as if it's some generally desirable trait, but the truth is that exorbitant contact rates are these pitchers' greatest downfalls. It's exceedingly difficult to find sustained success while giving up hits at a higher clip than almost any other pitcher in baseball, and while Pavano and Blackburn ease their burden by limiting walks, it's difficult to expect anything better than back-of-the-rotation mediocrity unless they run through a prolonged period of good luck (as Pavano did through the first four months or so last year).
It's a rule of thumb in baseball that about 3 out of every 10 balls put in play will turn into a hit. In his eye-opening article for Baseball Nation yesterday, Jeff Sullivan found that, since 1970, even position players who have taken to the mound have registered a .296 BABIP.
By letting hitters put almost everything in play, you walk a dangerous line, and we've been reminded of that over these last several weeks. Since the start of July, Pavano owns a 6.87 ERA and Blackburn is at 7.45. These performances have contributed to a screeching halt in momentum for a rotation that looked spectacular in June.
Pavano and Blackburn have both certainly proven that they are capable of succeeding in spite of their heavy contact tendencies, but it should be intuitively obvious that it's not a reliable recipe for sustained success.
The two are under contract next year for a combined $13.25 million. It's more than likely that they'll once again be two of the most hittable pitchers in the majors.
You reap what you sow, I guess.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher
The Twins entered the offseason with five established starting pitchers under their control for 2011. By re-signing Carl Pavano, they upped that number to six and created a logjam of sorts. With jobs guaranteed to the top two starters, Pavano and Francisco Liriano, four pitchers were tabbed to compete for the final three rotation spots during spring training.
As it turns out, all four of those pitchers have performed well this month, so it comes as no shock that the odd man out is Kevin Slowey, a talented right-handed hurler who's had some friction with the organization and was left off the postseason roster despite winning 13 games last year.
While I don't necessarily agree with the decision to start Slowey in the bullpen, his presence there gives the Twins a quick and competent fall-back option should one of the top five starters falter or suffer an injury. Each of the Twins' six starters has a track record of big-league success and the organization also has top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A, so as we enter the 2011 season the starting rotation appears to be the club's strongest and deepest position.
Carl Pavano
2010 Stats: 221 IP, 17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 117/37 K/BB
I don't think Pavano's a better pitcher than Liriano, but the argument can certainly be made that he had a better season in 2010 and there's nothing wrong with giving him the veteran nod as Opening Day starter this year. Pavano has earned the billing with a lights-out spring training, allowing only six earned runs in 25 innings over five starts. His dramatic drop-off in strikeout rate in the waning months last season was somewhat unsettling, but all the Twins need from Pavano is 200 solid innings to make his $8 million salary look like a bargain. His FIP has been right around 4.00 in each of the past two years so that should be his baseline expectation.
Francisco Liriano
2010 Stats: 191.2 IP, 14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 201/58 K/BB
Liriano has become a rather controversial figure here in Minnesota. Debates swirl around whether or not he's a "true ace," whether his occasional struggles are more attributable to bad luck or mental weakness, and whether the Twins would be wise to trade him before supposedly inevitable injuries decimate his value. What should be universally agreed upon is that Liriano is a very talented pitcher whose arsenal is among the filthiest in baseball, and at age 27 he's still just entering his prime years. The lefty was victimized by an abnormally high number of bleeders, bloopers and seeing-eye singles last year, but these things tend to go in cycles. I expect him to be phenomenal in 2011, and when the year's over I expect the front office to be cursing themselves for failing to at least more actively pursue a three- or four-year deal this past offseason.
Brian Duensing
2010 Stats: 130.2 IP, 10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 78/35 K/BB
By virtue of his outstanding performance last year, Duensing was the first "bubble guy" to be awarded a spot in the rotation this spring. He'll pitch fifth sequentially to split up the lefties, but for all intents and purposes Ron Gardenhire views Duensing as his No. 3. That title seems to be more than earned based on the southpaw's core numbers over the past two years (15-5 with a 3.02 ERA) but a deeper glance shows a rather unspectacular 1.98 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a huge disparity in performance against lefties (.502 OPS) and righties (.747 OPS). Opposing managers will undoubtedly be stacking their lineups with right-handed batters, so Duensing will have his work cut out for him. Matching last year's magic will be an exceedingly tall task.
Nick Blackburn
2010 Stats: 161 IP, 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 68/40 K/BB
From an outside perspective, it's tough to understand why Blackburn would have been promised a rotation spot so quickly this spring. Last year he remained one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and for good measure he also posted the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career. The result was a mostly disastrous campaign that saw him demoted to the minors in late July with a 6.66 ERA, though he returned and pitched well down the stretch to finish with a 10-12 record and 5.42 ERA. The key factors in the Twins' decision were Blackburn's previous history as an effective starter (he tossed about 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009), his newly minted long-term contract and his good standing with the manager. While Blackburn's extreme contact tendencies can be hard to stomach, it's tough to downplay his value those first two seasons and the fact that a nagging elbow injury likely contributed to his struggles last year. If he gets bombed over the first couple months, Slowey will be ready to step in.
Scott Baker
2010 Stats: 170.1 IP, 12-9, 4.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 148/43 K/BB
Only 10 American League starters averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Baker last year, and only 11 averaged fewer walks. Not many teams can make a claim like that about their fifth starter, but the truth is that Baker is the team's No. 5 guy in name only -- ultimately there's a very strong chance that he'll end up being a more effective pitcher than either of the two above him here. In order to make his results match his outstanding peripherals, Baker will focus on two things this year: staying healthy and limiting base runners. His elbow bothered him at times throughout the 2010 campaign and continued to cause issues early this spring. And while his fly ball tendencies will always make him somewhat homer-prone, the long balls do a lot less damage when nobody's on base. Last year Baker posted his highest WHIP (1.34) since 2006.
As it turns out, all four of those pitchers have performed well this month, so it comes as no shock that the odd man out is Kevin Slowey, a talented right-handed hurler who's had some friction with the organization and was left off the postseason roster despite winning 13 games last year.
While I don't necessarily agree with the decision to start Slowey in the bullpen, his presence there gives the Twins a quick and competent fall-back option should one of the top five starters falter or suffer an injury. Each of the Twins' six starters has a track record of big-league success and the organization also has top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A, so as we enter the 2011 season the starting rotation appears to be the club's strongest and deepest position.
Carl Pavano
2010 Stats: 221 IP, 17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 117/37 K/BB
I don't think Pavano's a better pitcher than Liriano, but the argument can certainly be made that he had a better season in 2010 and there's nothing wrong with giving him the veteran nod as Opening Day starter this year. Pavano has earned the billing with a lights-out spring training, allowing only six earned runs in 25 innings over five starts. His dramatic drop-off in strikeout rate in the waning months last season was somewhat unsettling, but all the Twins need from Pavano is 200 solid innings to make his $8 million salary look like a bargain. His FIP has been right around 4.00 in each of the past two years so that should be his baseline expectation.
Francisco Liriano
2010 Stats: 191.2 IP, 14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 201/58 K/BB
Liriano has become a rather controversial figure here in Minnesota. Debates swirl around whether or not he's a "true ace," whether his occasional struggles are more attributable to bad luck or mental weakness, and whether the Twins would be wise to trade him before supposedly inevitable injuries decimate his value. What should be universally agreed upon is that Liriano is a very talented pitcher whose arsenal is among the filthiest in baseball, and at age 27 he's still just entering his prime years. The lefty was victimized by an abnormally high number of bleeders, bloopers and seeing-eye singles last year, but these things tend to go in cycles. I expect him to be phenomenal in 2011, and when the year's over I expect the front office to be cursing themselves for failing to at least more actively pursue a three- or four-year deal this past offseason.
Brian Duensing
2010 Stats: 130.2 IP, 10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 78/35 K/BB
By virtue of his outstanding performance last year, Duensing was the first "bubble guy" to be awarded a spot in the rotation this spring. He'll pitch fifth sequentially to split up the lefties, but for all intents and purposes Ron Gardenhire views Duensing as his No. 3. That title seems to be more than earned based on the southpaw's core numbers over the past two years (15-5 with a 3.02 ERA) but a deeper glance shows a rather unspectacular 1.98 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a huge disparity in performance against lefties (.502 OPS) and righties (.747 OPS). Opposing managers will undoubtedly be stacking their lineups with right-handed batters, so Duensing will have his work cut out for him. Matching last year's magic will be an exceedingly tall task.
Nick Blackburn
2010 Stats: 161 IP, 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 68/40 K/BB
From an outside perspective, it's tough to understand why Blackburn would have been promised a rotation spot so quickly this spring. Last year he remained one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and for good measure he also posted the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career. The result was a mostly disastrous campaign that saw him demoted to the minors in late July with a 6.66 ERA, though he returned and pitched well down the stretch to finish with a 10-12 record and 5.42 ERA. The key factors in the Twins' decision were Blackburn's previous history as an effective starter (he tossed about 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009), his newly minted long-term contract and his good standing with the manager. While Blackburn's extreme contact tendencies can be hard to stomach, it's tough to downplay his value those first two seasons and the fact that a nagging elbow injury likely contributed to his struggles last year. If he gets bombed over the first couple months, Slowey will be ready to step in.
Scott Baker
2010 Stats: 170.1 IP, 12-9, 4.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 148/43 K/BB
Only 10 American League starters averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Baker last year, and only 11 averaged fewer walks. Not many teams can make a claim like that about their fifth starter, but the truth is that Baker is the team's No. 5 guy in name only -- ultimately there's a very strong chance that he'll end up being a more effective pitcher than either of the two above him here. In order to make his results match his outstanding peripherals, Baker will focus on two things this year: staying healthy and limiting base runners. His elbow bothered him at times throughout the 2010 campaign and continued to cause issues early this spring. And while his fly ball tendencies will always make him somewhat homer-prone, the long balls do a lot less damage when nobody's on base. Last year Baker posted his highest WHIP (1.34) since 2006.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Musical Chairs
Back in grade school, the game of musical chairs seemed like good, innocent fun. Little did we know that it was actually designed to prepare us for the harsh realities of the world. Oftentimes in life, there are only a limited number of spots available, and when the music stops, it sucks to be the last one standing.
Several starting pitchers for the Twins will enter spring training in a musical chairs mindset this year. The signing of Carl Pavano creates a logjam in the rotation, with six viable candidates and only five spots available. We're safe in assuming that Pavano and Francisco Liriano are guaranteed spots. We're also safe, I think, in assuming that Scott Baker is guaranteed a spot -- he's been a relatively durable and effective arm in each of the past three years, throwing 170-plus innings in each with an ERA never exceeding 4.50.
One can argue that top prospect Kyle Gibson has a shot at earning a job, but I can't see that happening unless an injury or two strikes; there's simply no reason to start his arbitration clock unless pushed by necessity. So it comes down to Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Kevin Slowey competing for the two remaining spots.
Each hurler can make a good case for himself.
Blackburn was the most stable force in the rotation over the 2008 and '09 seasons. He averaged 200 quality innings, and the Twins rewarded that performance with a four-year contract last spring. After signing the new deal, however, Blackburn's contact-happy pitching style began to catch up with him, and he found himself demoted to Triple-A in July. Late in the year, he returned to the big-league rotation and pitched effectively, earning himself a spot in the playoff rotation (though his turn never came).
Duensing stepped into the rotation in 2009 and made a crucial contribution down the stretch, helping propel the Twins to a postseason berth. Last year, he once again played a significant role in the team's success, moving from the bullpen to the rotation when Blackburn's struggles created an opening in July and posting stellar numbers as a starter down the stretch. In 23 career major-league starts, Duensing is 12-3 with a 2.93 ERA.
Slowey pretty clearly has the best stuff and upside of the three, but he has also experienced the least success over the past couple years. A wrist injury limited him to 90 innings in 2009, and last year his production was suppressed by injuries and stamina issues, to the degree that he was left off the postseason roster. However, Slowey is the youngest and he's the only one with a sustainable recipe for success; Duensing's performance last year was propped up by a virtually unrepeatable .270 BABIP and Blackburn will always be heavily dependent on luck and defense. Slowey has a historically great strikeout-to-walk ratio and was flat-out dominant at every level in the minors.
My guess is that, barring a truly awful performance in spring training, Blackburn can stake his claim to one of the rotation spots in question. His greatest value is in his durability (team-leading 92 starts over the past three years), which I believe is the chief reason he got a long-term contract a year ago. He also doesn't offer much as a bullpen arm, and I suspect that is why, following his demotion to bullpen last year, he was sent to the minors after only two relief appearances to keep his arm in starting shape.
If I'm correct in that presumption, we'll be looking at a spring battle between Duensing and Slowey for the fifth and final spot. My opinion right now is that Duensing should be the odd man out. That's not so much an indictment of the left-hander as an acknowledgment that, among all three candidates, he's the only one with any history of success as a reliever. Before moving to the rotation last season, Duensing had registered a 1.67 ERA and held opponents to a .591 OPS in 39 appearances out of the bullpen. Outside of Matt Capps and Jose Mijares, the Twins are short on relief candidates with recent major-league success, so Duensing and his experience would be a vital addition.
Beyond being more well-suited to pitch in relief, Duensing is due for some serious regression as a starting pitcher. His 2.93 big-league ERA as a starter dwarfs his 4.00 mark in Triple-A, and despite his outstanding poise his stuff just isn't very good. This was on display when he failed to induce a single swinging strike in his ALDS start against the Yankees -- a stat I just can't get out of my head.
Eventually, mediocre stuff catches up with you. Look no further than Blackburn's 2010 campaign as evidence. That doesn't mean Duensing is going to suddenly turn into a pumpkin -- and it does help that he throws with his left hand -- but he's much more likely to be the team's fifth (or sixth) best starter this year than their third-best, as some people seem to view him.
I can see the argument for the other side. Certainly Duensing has done enough over the past two years to earn a rotation spot on merit, and given Slowey's stamina issues it's not hard to see his stuff playing better out of the bullpen. The difference-maker for me is Duensing's experience as a reliever, and the fact that -- much like the last two years -- he'll be ready to step into the rotation when things go south. If healthy, Slowey could easily recapture his 2008 form and become a legitimate top-end starter, while Duensing would have to rely on continuing to outperform his underwhelming peripheral numbers (against lineups stacked with righties, against whom he is extremely vulnerable in comparison to lefties) in order to achieve that kind of success.
Duensing has been there when the Twins have needed him over the past two years, and he's played an underrated role in their back-to-back division titles. He's shown an uncanny ability to step up and perform in whatever role he's asked, and that's all the more reason for him to open the season in the bullpen, where his dominance against lefty hitters can be fully utilized. Without a doubt, the Twins will need an extra starter at some point, and when that time comes, Duensing will hopefully be ready to step in with added confidence. Just like last year.
Several starting pitchers for the Twins will enter spring training in a musical chairs mindset this year. The signing of Carl Pavano creates a logjam in the rotation, with six viable candidates and only five spots available. We're safe in assuming that Pavano and Francisco Liriano are guaranteed spots. We're also safe, I think, in assuming that Scott Baker is guaranteed a spot -- he's been a relatively durable and effective arm in each of the past three years, throwing 170-plus innings in each with an ERA never exceeding 4.50.
One can argue that top prospect Kyle Gibson has a shot at earning a job, but I can't see that happening unless an injury or two strikes; there's simply no reason to start his arbitration clock unless pushed by necessity. So it comes down to Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Kevin Slowey competing for the two remaining spots.
Each hurler can make a good case for himself.
Blackburn was the most stable force in the rotation over the 2008 and '09 seasons. He averaged 200 quality innings, and the Twins rewarded that performance with a four-year contract last spring. After signing the new deal, however, Blackburn's contact-happy pitching style began to catch up with him, and he found himself demoted to Triple-A in July. Late in the year, he returned to the big-league rotation and pitched effectively, earning himself a spot in the playoff rotation (though his turn never came).
Duensing stepped into the rotation in 2009 and made a crucial contribution down the stretch, helping propel the Twins to a postseason berth. Last year, he once again played a significant role in the team's success, moving from the bullpen to the rotation when Blackburn's struggles created an opening in July and posting stellar numbers as a starter down the stretch. In 23 career major-league starts, Duensing is 12-3 with a 2.93 ERA.
Slowey pretty clearly has the best stuff and upside of the three, but he has also experienced the least success over the past couple years. A wrist injury limited him to 90 innings in 2009, and last year his production was suppressed by injuries and stamina issues, to the degree that he was left off the postseason roster. However, Slowey is the youngest and he's the only one with a sustainable recipe for success; Duensing's performance last year was propped up by a virtually unrepeatable .270 BABIP and Blackburn will always be heavily dependent on luck and defense. Slowey has a historically great strikeout-to-walk ratio and was flat-out dominant at every level in the minors.
My guess is that, barring a truly awful performance in spring training, Blackburn can stake his claim to one of the rotation spots in question. His greatest value is in his durability (team-leading 92 starts over the past three years), which I believe is the chief reason he got a long-term contract a year ago. He also doesn't offer much as a bullpen arm, and I suspect that is why, following his demotion to bullpen last year, he was sent to the minors after only two relief appearances to keep his arm in starting shape.
If I'm correct in that presumption, we'll be looking at a spring battle between Duensing and Slowey for the fifth and final spot. My opinion right now is that Duensing should be the odd man out. That's not so much an indictment of the left-hander as an acknowledgment that, among all three candidates, he's the only one with any history of success as a reliever. Before moving to the rotation last season, Duensing had registered a 1.67 ERA and held opponents to a .591 OPS in 39 appearances out of the bullpen. Outside of Matt Capps and Jose Mijares, the Twins are short on relief candidates with recent major-league success, so Duensing and his experience would be a vital addition.
Beyond being more well-suited to pitch in relief, Duensing is due for some serious regression as a starting pitcher. His 2.93 big-league ERA as a starter dwarfs his 4.00 mark in Triple-A, and despite his outstanding poise his stuff just isn't very good. This was on display when he failed to induce a single swinging strike in his ALDS start against the Yankees -- a stat I just can't get out of my head.
Eventually, mediocre stuff catches up with you. Look no further than Blackburn's 2010 campaign as evidence. That doesn't mean Duensing is going to suddenly turn into a pumpkin -- and it does help that he throws with his left hand -- but he's much more likely to be the team's fifth (or sixth) best starter this year than their third-best, as some people seem to view him.
I can see the argument for the other side. Certainly Duensing has done enough over the past two years to earn a rotation spot on merit, and given Slowey's stamina issues it's not hard to see his stuff playing better out of the bullpen. The difference-maker for me is Duensing's experience as a reliever, and the fact that -- much like the last two years -- he'll be ready to step into the rotation when things go south. If healthy, Slowey could easily recapture his 2008 form and become a legitimate top-end starter, while Duensing would have to rely on continuing to outperform his underwhelming peripheral numbers (against lineups stacked with righties, against whom he is extremely vulnerable in comparison to lefties) in order to achieve that kind of success.
Duensing has been there when the Twins have needed him over the past two years, and he's played an underrated role in their back-to-back division titles. He's shown an uncanny ability to step up and perform in whatever role he's asked, and that's all the more reason for him to open the season in the bullpen, where his dominance against lefty hitters can be fully utilized. Without a doubt, the Twins will need an extra starter at some point, and when that time comes, Duensing will hopefully be ready to step in with added confidence. Just like last year.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Bill Smith's Greatest Weakness
Overall, Bill Smith's body of work as Twins general manager has been impressive. He took over at an extremely unenviable time, facing the task of letting two of the most popular and talented players in franchise history -- Torii Hunter and Johan Santana -- depart while keeping the team competitive. While that first winter was not a particularly strong one, Smith's Twins did surprisingly come within a game of the playoffs in 2008 and they won the division in each of the next two years.
The Twins front office under Smith has shown clear competency in a number of areas. These include targeting quality players in trades when their value is at a low point (JJ Hardy and Carl Pavano come to mind), acquiring valuable pieces through free agency (an area where Terry Ryan consistently struggled), drafting and being aggressive on the international market.
One area where Smith and Co. have not been particularly adept, however, is extending the contracts of their own players.
I'm not talking about the big fish. The heaping salaries of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan are hard to stomach now, obviously, but no one could have predicted they'd suffer the type of major injuries they did. One can question the wisdom of paying Joe Mauer $23 million annually for the better part of the next decade, but it was a fair contract and the Twins would have been ravaged if they hadn't locked the MVP up after '09.
What I take issue with is some of the extensions Smith has given lesser players on the roster, and specifically the timing of those extensions. While he's shown an ability to bring in external players at bargain prices because their value is down, he tends to negotiate contracts with his own players when their value is superficially high.
Denard Span and Nick Blackburn, both of whom signed long-term deals buying out all their arbitration years prior to this season, are good examples. Each of these players performed in '08 and '09 at a level that far exceeded their minor-league track record. Blackburn's numbers seemed particularly difficult to sustain, as it doesn't take a hardcore sabermetrician to understand that when you constantly pitch to contact and don't draw ground balls at a particularly dazzling rate, you're liable to get blown up.
Both those players took major steps backwards this season, which shouldn't have come as an enormous surprise based on their histories and tendencies. Yet, the team is now locked into paying them both over the next 3-4 years at a rate based on their performance in the first two seasons. If Span and Blackburn continue to decline, they'll keep being paid as strong producers due to contract extensions that were totally unnecessary given that both were under team control for several more years.
Nick Punto represents another example of badly timed extension. If the team wanted to keep him around (which you'd have to guess they always did), they could have handed him a low-money extension after his historically dismal 2007 season. Instead, they waited until he put together a solid effort in '08 -- his last year under contract -- and had to pay him $8.5 million over two years to keep him from exiting via free agency. As a result they've had to pay him $4 million in each of the past two years to put up a sub-.630 OPS while characteristically battling injuries.
And then there's the Michael Cuddyer contract. This stands out to me as Smith's most egregious and baffling move yet. It's not so much the contract itself -- a three-year deal worth $24 million -- I have a problem with, although one could certainly question handing him such a sizable deal after a very pedestrian 2007 campaign. It's the stipulation regarding the club option. It had to be exercised five days after the end of the 2009 World Series, meaning the Twins had to decide whether or not they would pay Cuddyer $10.5 million in 2011 before seeing what he did in 2010.
I can't recall ever seeing a contract structured like this before. I can see why Cuddyer's agent would push for it, knowing that Cuddyer would be moving past the age of 30 in 2009 and understanding that the team might be more likely to activate the lucrative option after that season than after his 2010 season where age could start taking a greater toll on the right fielder's performance. What I don't understand is why in the world Smith would agree to it.
Was it really a deal-breaker? Was Cuddyer going to turn down an extension that paid him an average of $8 million annually after a relatively mediocre season because the club option was to be exercised after the final guaranteed year of the deal, as with any normal contract? By structuring the deal like this, Smith opened himself to the possibility that Cuddyer would have a great '09 campaign, making the option look like a no-brainer and prompting the team to activate it, then follow up with a poor 2010 season that cast doubt on his future productivity. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened and now the Twins are forced to pay Cuddyer's hefty salary next year when under normal circumstances they'd have the option of letting him walk or negotiating a new deal.
I like most of what Smith has done, but the burdensome long-term contracts of players like Span, Blackburn, Punto and Cuddyer stand as glaring examples of a pervasive weakness. This winter, he'll once again have the opportunity to extend the contracts of several players. I mentioned Francisco Liriano as a top priority on Wednesday, and players like JJ Hardy, Alexi Casilla and Kevin Slowey are also candidates for extensions.
I can only hope that the front office shows better judgment in handing out such extensions this winter, because unlike the Yankees, this team simply isn't equipped financially to deal with a multitude of poorly concieved contracts.
The Twins front office under Smith has shown clear competency in a number of areas. These include targeting quality players in trades when their value is at a low point (JJ Hardy and Carl Pavano come to mind), acquiring valuable pieces through free agency (an area where Terry Ryan consistently struggled), drafting and being aggressive on the international market.
One area where Smith and Co. have not been particularly adept, however, is extending the contracts of their own players.
I'm not talking about the big fish. The heaping salaries of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan are hard to stomach now, obviously, but no one could have predicted they'd suffer the type of major injuries they did. One can question the wisdom of paying Joe Mauer $23 million annually for the better part of the next decade, but it was a fair contract and the Twins would have been ravaged if they hadn't locked the MVP up after '09.
What I take issue with is some of the extensions Smith has given lesser players on the roster, and specifically the timing of those extensions. While he's shown an ability to bring in external players at bargain prices because their value is down, he tends to negotiate contracts with his own players when their value is superficially high.
Denard Span and Nick Blackburn, both of whom signed long-term deals buying out all their arbitration years prior to this season, are good examples. Each of these players performed in '08 and '09 at a level that far exceeded their minor-league track record. Blackburn's numbers seemed particularly difficult to sustain, as it doesn't take a hardcore sabermetrician to understand that when you constantly pitch to contact and don't draw ground balls at a particularly dazzling rate, you're liable to get blown up.
Both those players took major steps backwards this season, which shouldn't have come as an enormous surprise based on their histories and tendencies. Yet, the team is now locked into paying them both over the next 3-4 years at a rate based on their performance in the first two seasons. If Span and Blackburn continue to decline, they'll keep being paid as strong producers due to contract extensions that were totally unnecessary given that both were under team control for several more years.
Nick Punto represents another example of badly timed extension. If the team wanted to keep him around (which you'd have to guess they always did), they could have handed him a low-money extension after his historically dismal 2007 season. Instead, they waited until he put together a solid effort in '08 -- his last year under contract -- and had to pay him $8.5 million over two years to keep him from exiting via free agency. As a result they've had to pay him $4 million in each of the past two years to put up a sub-.630 OPS while characteristically battling injuries.
And then there's the Michael Cuddyer contract. This stands out to me as Smith's most egregious and baffling move yet. It's not so much the contract itself -- a three-year deal worth $24 million -- I have a problem with, although one could certainly question handing him such a sizable deal after a very pedestrian 2007 campaign. It's the stipulation regarding the club option. It had to be exercised five days after the end of the 2009 World Series, meaning the Twins had to decide whether or not they would pay Cuddyer $10.5 million in 2011 before seeing what he did in 2010.
I can't recall ever seeing a contract structured like this before. I can see why Cuddyer's agent would push for it, knowing that Cuddyer would be moving past the age of 30 in 2009 and understanding that the team might be more likely to activate the lucrative option after that season than after his 2010 season where age could start taking a greater toll on the right fielder's performance. What I don't understand is why in the world Smith would agree to it.
Was it really a deal-breaker? Was Cuddyer going to turn down an extension that paid him an average of $8 million annually after a relatively mediocre season because the club option was to be exercised after the final guaranteed year of the deal, as with any normal contract? By structuring the deal like this, Smith opened himself to the possibility that Cuddyer would have a great '09 campaign, making the option look like a no-brainer and prompting the team to activate it, then follow up with a poor 2010 season that cast doubt on his future productivity. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened and now the Twins are forced to pay Cuddyer's hefty salary next year when under normal circumstances they'd have the option of letting him walk or negotiating a new deal.
I like most of what Smith has done, but the burdensome long-term contracts of players like Span, Blackburn, Punto and Cuddyer stand as glaring examples of a pervasive weakness. This winter, he'll once again have the opportunity to extend the contracts of several players. I mentioned Francisco Liriano as a top priority on Wednesday, and players like JJ Hardy, Alexi Casilla and Kevin Slowey are also candidates for extensions.
I can only hope that the front office shows better judgment in handing out such extensions this winter, because unlike the Yankees, this team simply isn't equipped financially to deal with a multitude of poorly concieved contracts.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Fourth Starter in the Playoffs
On Monday, I posted an article submitting four questions about the Twins' playoff roster for consideration. The topic that seemed to generate the most discussion was which starting pitcher might get the nod to start Game 4 of the ALDS, should there be one.
Right now, the choice appears to be between Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker or the Game 1 starter on short rest. None of those options seem all that unappealing, which is a good sort of conundrum to face. I can't claim to know what the right answer is at this very point in time, and if you think you do, you're probably wrong.
Ron Gardenhire made his current preference clear yesterday, laying out a planned playoff rotation that includes Blackburn as fourth starter. Gardenhire left the door open for adjustments based on what happens over the team's final handful of regular season games, but for now Blackburn stands at the front of the line for that fourth rotation spot in October.
Is Gardy on the right track?
All things being equal, you want Baker or Slowey to pitch a big game before you want Blackburn. They're better pitchers, capable of controlling a lineup with strikeouts unlike Blackburn who allows an insane amount of contact and can only dictate to a certain degree whether those copious balls in play turn into outs. Against a team filled with outstanding hitters like the Yankees or Rays, you want the guy who can get you some essentially guaranteed outs.
But all things are not currently equal. Blackburn has been steadily excellent since returning from a minor-league stint, with a hugely increased ground ball rate and a pair of strong outings against a playoff team. Meanwhile, Baker hasn't pitched into the sixth inning of a game in nearly a month and has been bothered by a sore elbow.
Slowey has battled arm issues late in the season as well, and while he's occasionally flashed brilliance he has yet to settle into a prolonged groove. While Slowey's overall numbers are drastically better than Blackburn's this year, it bears noting that Blackburn has delivered 13 quality starts to Slowey's nine. That includes four against AL playoff teams for Blackburn, one for Slowey.
A hardcore sabermetrician likely will not waver in claiming that Baker should be the guy, regardless of performance over these final games. After all, according to advanced statistics that filter out luck and defense, Baker's been the team's second-best starter this season.
The problem with strictly statistical analysis is that it tends to ignore the human aspects of the game. These aren't robots out there playing. Sometimes streaks can be meaningful. Guys have confidence highs and lows. They go through stretches where their mechanics get out of whack. They pitch through injuries that affect their results.
This might sound like a major endorsement of Blackburn, and it's not meant to be. I've been as low as anyone on the right-hander this season, and there was a point where the thought of him starting a postseason game would have induced nausea for me. But we know he's a streaky pitcher and right now he's undeniably going good. If he unravels in his final starts while his competitors excel and prove they're fully healthy, you re-evaluate. If no one looks up to the challenge, maybe a start from Francisco Liriano on three days rest is the most logical choice.
Above all, I'd encourage everyone to keep an open mind. The right answer now could very well differ from the right answer on October 6th. Only one matters.
Right now, the choice appears to be between Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker or the Game 1 starter on short rest. None of those options seem all that unappealing, which is a good sort of conundrum to face. I can't claim to know what the right answer is at this very point in time, and if you think you do, you're probably wrong.
Ron Gardenhire made his current preference clear yesterday, laying out a planned playoff rotation that includes Blackburn as fourth starter. Gardenhire left the door open for adjustments based on what happens over the team's final handful of regular season games, but for now Blackburn stands at the front of the line for that fourth rotation spot in October.
Is Gardy on the right track?
All things being equal, you want Baker or Slowey to pitch a big game before you want Blackburn. They're better pitchers, capable of controlling a lineup with strikeouts unlike Blackburn who allows an insane amount of contact and can only dictate to a certain degree whether those copious balls in play turn into outs. Against a team filled with outstanding hitters like the Yankees or Rays, you want the guy who can get you some essentially guaranteed outs.
But all things are not currently equal. Blackburn has been steadily excellent since returning from a minor-league stint, with a hugely increased ground ball rate and a pair of strong outings against a playoff team. Meanwhile, Baker hasn't pitched into the sixth inning of a game in nearly a month and has been bothered by a sore elbow.
Slowey has battled arm issues late in the season as well, and while he's occasionally flashed brilliance he has yet to settle into a prolonged groove. While Slowey's overall numbers are drastically better than Blackburn's this year, it bears noting that Blackburn has delivered 13 quality starts to Slowey's nine. That includes four against AL playoff teams for Blackburn, one for Slowey.
A hardcore sabermetrician likely will not waver in claiming that Baker should be the guy, regardless of performance over these final games. After all, according to advanced statistics that filter out luck and defense, Baker's been the team's second-best starter this season.
The problem with strictly statistical analysis is that it tends to ignore the human aspects of the game. These aren't robots out there playing. Sometimes streaks can be meaningful. Guys have confidence highs and lows. They go through stretches where their mechanics get out of whack. They pitch through injuries that affect their results.
This might sound like a major endorsement of Blackburn, and it's not meant to be. I've been as low as anyone on the right-hander this season, and there was a point where the thought of him starting a postseason game would have induced nausea for me. But we know he's a streaky pitcher and right now he's undeniably going good. If he unravels in his final starts while his competitors excel and prove they're fully healthy, you re-evaluate. If no one looks up to the challenge, maybe a start from Francisco Liriano on three days rest is the most logical choice.
Above all, I'd encourage everyone to keep an open mind. The right answer now could very well differ from the right answer on October 6th. Only one matters.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
A Plea to Nick Blackburn
The Twins gave Nick Blackburn every chance to battle through his struggles this year. They were patient with their contact-happy right-hander, freshly signed to a four-year contract extension; patient to a fault, in my opinion. But when Blackburn turned in another dud on July 18, allowing five runs on nine hits over just five innings in a key game against the White Sox (in which Brian Duensing's lengthy and outstanding relief appearance aided a Twins victory), Ron Gardenhire and the Twins coaching staff could no longer find a way to justify his continued presence in the rotation.
They did what had to be done. They demoted Blackburn and his 6.53 ERA to the bullpen. After one shaky relief appearance, Blackburn was sent to the minors. He hadn't been there since late in the 2007 season.
Back in Triple-A Rochester, Blackburn seemed to quickly regain his confidence against inferior hitters. In his first three starts with the Red Wings, he allowed only two runs on 11 hits over 16 1/3 innings while ratcheting up his ground ball rate. Despite the fact that Blackburn looked significantly worse in his fourth start with Rochester (5.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER), he got the call back to the big-league club, as Kevin Slowey's aching elbow had opened a vacancy in the rotation. Francisco Liriano's bout with a tired arm necessitated that Blackburn start Monday night's game, on his first day back with the team.
Despite Blackburn's 2.49 ERA and 65 percent GB rate during his minor-league stint, I was skeptical as to how he'd perform on a hot Texas night against a playoff-caliber offense. But you know what? He pitched damn well. In seven innings, Blackburn allowed only three runs, and for once I can say his results don't accurately reflect how effective he was. A couple infield singles led to damage in the first, and a muffed routine double play by J.J. Hardy allowed a run to cross in the fifth. All in all, Blackburn didn't allow much hard contact and looked a lot more like his 2008/09 self.
Now, I'm not naive enough to believe that this one start signifies a 180-degree turnaround for Blackburn. I've watched him get mashed up by opposing offenses too many times this year to be so easily convinced. What I offer is a plea to Blackburn: please, keep it going.
We know you're capable of it. We remember your final five games last season, when you bounced back from a brutal eight-week slump to lead the Twins to four pivotal victories down the stretch in the regular season (posting a 1.65 ERA) and then nearly helped pilot them to a victory at Yankee Stadium with a gritty ALDS performance. Heck, even more recently, we remember how you bounced back from an awful April this season to win all five of your May starts, posting a 2.65 ERA.
Now would be a great time for you to put together one of your little signature runs. Because the Twins are trying to build separation in the division standings and Slowey's status is uncertain. This time, there's no Brian Duensing to be called upon if you should fail; Glen Perkins and Jeff Manship are simply not appealing fallback options.
You are a pitcher who has had many ups and downs in your young career. This season has mostly been a valley, but you can erase a lot of ill will by stepping up now, in the rotation's time of need.
It's not like you haven't done it before.
They did what had to be done. They demoted Blackburn and his 6.53 ERA to the bullpen. After one shaky relief appearance, Blackburn was sent to the minors. He hadn't been there since late in the 2007 season.
Back in Triple-A Rochester, Blackburn seemed to quickly regain his confidence against inferior hitters. In his first three starts with the Red Wings, he allowed only two runs on 11 hits over 16 1/3 innings while ratcheting up his ground ball rate. Despite the fact that Blackburn looked significantly worse in his fourth start with Rochester (5.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER), he got the call back to the big-league club, as Kevin Slowey's aching elbow had opened a vacancy in the rotation. Francisco Liriano's bout with a tired arm necessitated that Blackburn start Monday night's game, on his first day back with the team.
Despite Blackburn's 2.49 ERA and 65 percent GB rate during his minor-league stint, I was skeptical as to how he'd perform on a hot Texas night against a playoff-caliber offense. But you know what? He pitched damn well. In seven innings, Blackburn allowed only three runs, and for once I can say his results don't accurately reflect how effective he was. A couple infield singles led to damage in the first, and a muffed routine double play by J.J. Hardy allowed a run to cross in the fifth. All in all, Blackburn didn't allow much hard contact and looked a lot more like his 2008/09 self.
Now, I'm not naive enough to believe that this one start signifies a 180-degree turnaround for Blackburn. I've watched him get mashed up by opposing offenses too many times this year to be so easily convinced. What I offer is a plea to Blackburn: please, keep it going.
We know you're capable of it. We remember your final five games last season, when you bounced back from a brutal eight-week slump to lead the Twins to four pivotal victories down the stretch in the regular season (posting a 1.65 ERA) and then nearly helped pilot them to a victory at Yankee Stadium with a gritty ALDS performance. Heck, even more recently, we remember how you bounced back from an awful April this season to win all five of your May starts, posting a 2.65 ERA.
Now would be a great time for you to put together one of your little signature runs. Because the Twins are trying to build separation in the division standings and Slowey's status is uncertain. This time, there's no Brian Duensing to be called upon if you should fail; Glen Perkins and Jeff Manship are simply not appealing fallback options.
You are a pitcher who has had many ups and downs in your young career. This season has mostly been a valley, but you can erase a lot of ill will by stepping up now, in the rotation's time of need.
It's not like you haven't done it before.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Friday Notes
* With three members of the Twins' rotation struggling to consistently deliver quality performances, the team would undoubtedly like to add any of these three starters to the mix:
Pitcher A: 57.2 IP, 6-2, 3.28 ERA, 51/9 K/BB, .247 BAA
Pitcher B: 53.1 IP, 5-3, 3.54 ERA, 43/11 K/BB, .257 BAA
Pitcher C: 55.2 IP, 5-1, 3.72 ERA, 21/11 K/BB, .278 BAA
The thing is, all three of those pitchers are already in the Twins rotation. Those are the home splits for Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn. The problem is that all three hurlers have been absolutely terrible on the road. See for yourself:
Baker: 51.1 IP, 1-6, 6.66 ERA, 44/10 K/BB, .321 BAA
Slowey: 43.2 IP, 3-2, 5.98 ERA, 25/8 K/BB, .333 BAA
Blackburn: 41.1 IP, 2-6, 10.02 ERA, 13/16 K/BB, .398 BAA
Those numbers for Blackburn are especially egregious. Opponents have tagged him for a 1.164 OPS while hitting notching as many home runs (13) as strikeouts in nine starts.
The fact that all three of these pitchers are performing about as well as anyone could possibly expect when throwing at home suggests that whatever problems they're facing this season are largely mental. Sure, Target Field is a spacious and pitcher-friendly park, but that doesn't come close to explaining the enormous disparity in performance for all three of these guys. And if injuries were contributing to their struggles, why would those problems seemingly disappear when they're pitching at home?
The impetus is on Baker, Slowey, Blacbkurn and the Twins' coaching staff to figure out what is causing these issues on the road. These guys are now experienced major-league pitchers; for them to be unraveling in opposing ballparks again and again like this is beyond unacceptable.
* One pitcher you don't need to worry about is Francisco Liriano. Sure, he got roughed up in his last start before the break and neither his 6-7 record nor his 3.86 ERA scream "elite ace," but Liriano's performance this season has been much better than those numbers indicate.
In 107 1/3 innings, Liriano has struck out 117 batters while issuing 30 walks. He has allowed only two home runs. He has induced grounders on over 50 percent of balls in play; only 10 American League pitchers have a higher rate.
In other words, Liriano has been flat-out fantastic when it comes to factors that are under his direct control. That's why his FIP (a fielding independent metric) registers at 2.18, the best mark in the majors. The problem is that when batters are making contact, an inordinate number of balls are falling in for hits, especially over the past couple weeks. Despite the outstanding strikeout rate, Liriano has allowed about a hit per inning thanks to an inflated .361 batting average on balls in play. Compare that figure to the big-league average (.300), Liriano's career average (.318) or even Liriano's mark from last year (.324) and you can see that this is clearly a far higher BABIP than anyone should reasonably expect from the hard-throwing lefty. It's the result of bad luck and substandard fielding behind him.
With J.J. Hardy back in the mix and bad luck likely to even out, I fully expect Liriano to be one of the American League's best pitchers during the second half. In spite of what his record and ERA suggest, he already has been up to this point.
* Speaking of bad luck, lingering effects from Justin Morneau's concussion a couple weeks ago have landed the first baseman on the disabled list, forcing him to miss this weekend's key series against the division-leading White Sox and potentially setting the stage for yet another disappointing second half. I'm hopeful that Morneau can shake off his ailment and return to the outstanding level of production he provided throughout the first half, but we've been through this song and dance before and it's seemingly never ended well.
* Remember back in spring training when a faction of Twins fans was claiming that Wilson Ramos absolutely needed to be on the roster, drawing regular playing time while splitting his workload at catcher and DH? How silly that looks now. Ramos currently possesses a .252 on-base percentage in Triple-A and has hit only four home runs all year. His .562 OPS in Rochester barely edges Drew Butera's .560 mark there last year.
Ramos remains a very strong prospect and by no means am I saying that these struggles will prevent him from eventually turning into a very nice hitter. But maybe people will think twice before calling the Twins' front office morons for sending a 22-year-old with only 54 games of experience above Single-A back to the minors despite his strong performances in winter ball and spring training. Ramos clearly was not ready to be playing in the majors in April, nor is he now.
* Finally, if you haven't picked up a copy of the TwinsCentric 2010 Trade Deadline Primer yet, to me a favor and at least check out the free quarterbook sample here to see all it has to offer. A lot of work from a lot of talented people went into this sucker and we're pretty proud of it. I'm quite sure you'll find it to be an indispensable reference over the next couple weeks.
Pitcher A: 57.2 IP, 6-2, 3.28 ERA, 51/9 K/BB, .247 BAA
Pitcher B: 53.1 IP, 5-3, 3.54 ERA, 43/11 K/BB, .257 BAA
Pitcher C: 55.2 IP, 5-1, 3.72 ERA, 21/11 K/BB, .278 BAA
The thing is, all three of those pitchers are already in the Twins rotation. Those are the home splits for Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn. The problem is that all three hurlers have been absolutely terrible on the road. See for yourself:
Baker: 51.1 IP, 1-6, 6.66 ERA, 44/10 K/BB, .321 BAA
Slowey: 43.2 IP, 3-2, 5.98 ERA, 25/8 K/BB, .333 BAA
Blackburn: 41.1 IP, 2-6, 10.02 ERA, 13/16 K/BB, .398 BAA
Those numbers for Blackburn are especially egregious. Opponents have tagged him for a 1.164 OPS while hitting notching as many home runs (13) as strikeouts in nine starts.
The fact that all three of these pitchers are performing about as well as anyone could possibly expect when throwing at home suggests that whatever problems they're facing this season are largely mental. Sure, Target Field is a spacious and pitcher-friendly park, but that doesn't come close to explaining the enormous disparity in performance for all three of these guys. And if injuries were contributing to their struggles, why would those problems seemingly disappear when they're pitching at home?
The impetus is on Baker, Slowey, Blacbkurn and the Twins' coaching staff to figure out what is causing these issues on the road. These guys are now experienced major-league pitchers; for them to be unraveling in opposing ballparks again and again like this is beyond unacceptable.
* One pitcher you don't need to worry about is Francisco Liriano. Sure, he got roughed up in his last start before the break and neither his 6-7 record nor his 3.86 ERA scream "elite ace," but Liriano's performance this season has been much better than those numbers indicate.
In 107 1/3 innings, Liriano has struck out 117 batters while issuing 30 walks. He has allowed only two home runs. He has induced grounders on over 50 percent of balls in play; only 10 American League pitchers have a higher rate.
In other words, Liriano has been flat-out fantastic when it comes to factors that are under his direct control. That's why his FIP (a fielding independent metric) registers at 2.18, the best mark in the majors. The problem is that when batters are making contact, an inordinate number of balls are falling in for hits, especially over the past couple weeks. Despite the outstanding strikeout rate, Liriano has allowed about a hit per inning thanks to an inflated .361 batting average on balls in play. Compare that figure to the big-league average (.300), Liriano's career average (.318) or even Liriano's mark from last year (.324) and you can see that this is clearly a far higher BABIP than anyone should reasonably expect from the hard-throwing lefty. It's the result of bad luck and substandard fielding behind him.
With J.J. Hardy back in the mix and bad luck likely to even out, I fully expect Liriano to be one of the American League's best pitchers during the second half. In spite of what his record and ERA suggest, he already has been up to this point.
* Speaking of bad luck, lingering effects from Justin Morneau's concussion a couple weeks ago have landed the first baseman on the disabled list, forcing him to miss this weekend's key series against the division-leading White Sox and potentially setting the stage for yet another disappointing second half. I'm hopeful that Morneau can shake off his ailment and return to the outstanding level of production he provided throughout the first half, but we've been through this song and dance before and it's seemingly never ended well.
* Remember back in spring training when a faction of Twins fans was claiming that Wilson Ramos absolutely needed to be on the roster, drawing regular playing time while splitting his workload at catcher and DH? How silly that looks now. Ramos currently possesses a .252 on-base percentage in Triple-A and has hit only four home runs all year. His .562 OPS in Rochester barely edges Drew Butera's .560 mark there last year.
Ramos remains a very strong prospect and by no means am I saying that these struggles will prevent him from eventually turning into a very nice hitter. But maybe people will think twice before calling the Twins' front office morons for sending a 22-year-old with only 54 games of experience above Single-A back to the minors despite his strong performances in winter ball and spring training. Ramos clearly was not ready to be playing in the majors in April, nor is he now.
* Finally, if you haven't picked up a copy of the TwinsCentric 2010 Trade Deadline Primer yet, to me a favor and at least check out the free quarterbook sample here to see all it has to offer. A lot of work from a lot of talented people went into this sucker and we're pretty proud of it. I'm quite sure you'll find it to be an indispensable reference over the next couple weeks.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Blackburn's Tumultuous Season
It's funny how people tend to draw non-existent subtexts from internet opinion pieces. As an example, I've written about Nick Blackburn quite a bit this year, and much of that writing has carried a negative tone. Now, any time I write about him I invariably have people accusing me of "hating" Blackburn or going out of my way to disparage him in my columns.
Neither of those things are true, of course. By all accounts, Blackburn is a very nice guy, and I fully appreciate some of the big games he has pitched for the Twins over the first couple years of his major-league career. I like Blackburn. But there's no masking the fact that he's been one of the worst starting pitchers in major league baseball this year.
One of my random preseason predictions this spring was that Blackburn would have a tough season and finish with an ERA north of 5. Now even that seems charitable, as Blackburn sits at the All-Star break carrying a ghastly 6.40 ERA with 100 more hits (134) to his credit than strikeouts (34). On Saturday, Blackburn had perhaps his worst outing of the season, coughing up seven runs on four homers in a crucial match-up against the (then) division-leading Tigers.
It was one of those instances where the starter was clearly left in too long. I think baseball fans have a tendency to rip the manager for leaving in a starter based on hindsight judgment far too often, but this was a case where everyone watching the game could clearly see that Blackburn had nothing. He'd started out the fifth inning by allowing a lead-off double to the No. 9 hitter, Ramon Santiago, and issuing a walk to Austin Jackson, putting two on with nobody out for Johnny Damon.
I tweeted: "I think this would be an appropriate time to bring in Duensing. Blackburn is overmatched." Undoubtedly, most Twins fans shared that sentiment. Blackburn had already allowed six hits -- all of them extra-baggers -- and was preparing to face a tough left-handed hitter in a one-run game with the outcome still hanging in the balance. Duensing was warming in the bullpen. Unfortunately, the southpaw reliever didn't come in until after Blackburn surrendered a mammoth three-run shot to Damon, turning a 4-3 deficit into a 7-3 deficit and crippling the Twins' chances for a crucial victory.
Blackburn now owns a 1-6 record and 10.00 ERA since the start of June. On the season, opponents are hitting .333/.378/.565 against him. (For reference, perennial MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera's career line is .314/.386/.550). Blackburn was reportedly on the hot seat during his June 29 start against the Tigers after failing to complete even four innings in four of his previous five starts, but managed to salvage his rotation spot with a solid (but very ordinary) outing in which he allowed four runs over seven innings in a win.
In the two starts since, Blackburn has reverted right back to his old ways, allowing 14 runs (11 earned) on 18 hits -- including five homers -- over 10 1/3 innings. Yet, Ron Gardenhire came out on Sunday and announced that Blackburn would stunningly remain in the rotation after the All-Star break.
Blackburn's numbers this year are jaw-droppingly bad. Most pitchers in the league with results like that have been dropped from their respective rotations long ago. I understand that Blackburn has earned extra trust with his two strong seasons and with his very good month of May this year, but he's only managed one quality start in his past eight turns on the mound and the league is hitting at an MVP-caliber clip against him. He can't strike anyone out, his command is deteriorating, and he visibly lacks confidence on the mound.
I compared Blackburn to John Lannan a couple weeks ago, noting that the two pitchers have followed very similar paths in their major-league careers and both are experiencing a great deal of adversity here in 2010. Much like Blackburn, Lannan had gained a level of trust in Washington, having been the Nats' Opening Day starter for two straight seasons. Yet, when Lannan's ugly numbers and absurdly low K-rate made it clear that he wasn't equipped to be starting the majors, the Nationals -- who have essentially nothing to play for at this point -- made the difficult decision to sending their former ace lefty to the minors. Unfortunately, Ron Gardenhire and the Twins remain too attached to Blackburn to do the same.
The Twins managed to make the playoffs in 2006 despite a disastrously bad campaign from Carlos Silva, but this '10 squad doesn't have the luxury of a Cy Young winning Johan Santana or a rookie version of Francisco Liriano at the helm. With an already shaky rotation, the Twins can't afford to be sending the league's most hittable pitcher to the hill every fifth day and hoping the offense can churn out enough runs to eek out a victory.
I like Blackburn. I hope he can get things turned around. But right now, there's just no way he should be in this rotation. He's costing the Twins way too many meaningful games.
Neither of those things are true, of course. By all accounts, Blackburn is a very nice guy, and I fully appreciate some of the big games he has pitched for the Twins over the first couple years of his major-league career. I like Blackburn. But there's no masking the fact that he's been one of the worst starting pitchers in major league baseball this year.
One of my random preseason predictions this spring was that Blackburn would have a tough season and finish with an ERA north of 5. Now even that seems charitable, as Blackburn sits at the All-Star break carrying a ghastly 6.40 ERA with 100 more hits (134) to his credit than strikeouts (34). On Saturday, Blackburn had perhaps his worst outing of the season, coughing up seven runs on four homers in a crucial match-up against the (then) division-leading Tigers.
It was one of those instances where the starter was clearly left in too long. I think baseball fans have a tendency to rip the manager for leaving in a starter based on hindsight judgment far too often, but this was a case where everyone watching the game could clearly see that Blackburn had nothing. He'd started out the fifth inning by allowing a lead-off double to the No. 9 hitter, Ramon Santiago, and issuing a walk to Austin Jackson, putting two on with nobody out for Johnny Damon.
I tweeted: "I think this would be an appropriate time to bring in Duensing. Blackburn is overmatched." Undoubtedly, most Twins fans shared that sentiment. Blackburn had already allowed six hits -- all of them extra-baggers -- and was preparing to face a tough left-handed hitter in a one-run game with the outcome still hanging in the balance. Duensing was warming in the bullpen. Unfortunately, the southpaw reliever didn't come in until after Blackburn surrendered a mammoth three-run shot to Damon, turning a 4-3 deficit into a 7-3 deficit and crippling the Twins' chances for a crucial victory.
Blackburn now owns a 1-6 record and 10.00 ERA since the start of June. On the season, opponents are hitting .333/.378/.565 against him. (For reference, perennial MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera's career line is .314/.386/.550). Blackburn was reportedly on the hot seat during his June 29 start against the Tigers after failing to complete even four innings in four of his previous five starts, but managed to salvage his rotation spot with a solid (but very ordinary) outing in which he allowed four runs over seven innings in a win.
In the two starts since, Blackburn has reverted right back to his old ways, allowing 14 runs (11 earned) on 18 hits -- including five homers -- over 10 1/3 innings. Yet, Ron Gardenhire came out on Sunday and announced that Blackburn would stunningly remain in the rotation after the All-Star break.
Blackburn's numbers this year are jaw-droppingly bad. Most pitchers in the league with results like that have been dropped from their respective rotations long ago. I understand that Blackburn has earned extra trust with his two strong seasons and with his very good month of May this year, but he's only managed one quality start in his past eight turns on the mound and the league is hitting at an MVP-caliber clip against him. He can't strike anyone out, his command is deteriorating, and he visibly lacks confidence on the mound.
I compared Blackburn to John Lannan a couple weeks ago, noting that the two pitchers have followed very similar paths in their major-league careers and both are experiencing a great deal of adversity here in 2010. Much like Blackburn, Lannan had gained a level of trust in Washington, having been the Nats' Opening Day starter for two straight seasons. Yet, when Lannan's ugly numbers and absurdly low K-rate made it clear that he wasn't equipped to be starting the majors, the Nationals -- who have essentially nothing to play for at this point -- made the difficult decision to sending their former ace lefty to the minors. Unfortunately, Ron Gardenhire and the Twins remain too attached to Blackburn to do the same.
The Twins managed to make the playoffs in 2006 despite a disastrously bad campaign from Carlos Silva, but this '10 squad doesn't have the luxury of a Cy Young winning Johan Santana or a rookie version of Francisco Liriano at the helm. With an already shaky rotation, the Twins can't afford to be sending the league's most hittable pitcher to the hill every fifth day and hoping the offense can churn out enough runs to eek out a victory.
I like Blackburn. I hope he can get things turned around. But right now, there's just no way he should be in this rotation. He's costing the Twins way too many meaningful games.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Similar Paths
In a multitude of different ways, John Lannan is a very similar player to Nick Blackburn. The former, a starter for the Nationals, throws left-handed while Blackburn throws from the right side, but in spite of that disparity the two have followed startlingly similar career paths.
Both pitchers made brief big-league debuts in 2007 before becoming full-time starters for their respective clubs in 2008. Both proved to be workhorses in their first two big-league seasons, making 30-plus starts and averaging about 200 innings between the 2008 and 2009 campaigns. Most importantly for the purposes of this article, both were able to rise above rather unimpressive strikeout rates to post very respectable overall numbers during those first two seasons.
In 2008, Lannan went 9-15 with a 3.91 ERA over 182 innings despite a 5.8 K/9IP rate that fell well below the league average. That same year, Blackburn went 11-11 with a 4.05 ERA over 193 1/3 innings despite a 4.5 K/9IP rate that was even further below average.
In 2009, Lannan went 9-13 with a 3.88 ERA over 206 1/3 innings despite a 3.9 K/9IP rate. In Minnesota, Blackburn went 11-11 once again with a 4.03 ERA despite a 4.3 K/9IP rate.
Both pitchers were impressively managing to rack up quality innings despite their elevated contact rates. This year, however, they both have seen their already sub par strikeout rates drop through the floor, and it's no coincidence that both pitchers are seeing their overall performance plummet.
Blackburn and Lannan have been almost identical in their inability to throw the ball past hitters this year. Their K/9IP rates are 2.84 and 2.88, making them the only qualifying pitchers in all of the majors with rates below 3. They've both struck out about 7 percent of the total batters they've faced after striking out 11 percent in their first two seasons.
The results speak for themselves, and boy are they similar:
Blackburn, 2010: 76 IP, 5.80 ERA, 1.63 ERA, .337 BAA
Lannan, 2010: 75 IP, 5.76 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, .327 BAA
Blackburn possesses better control, but Lannan offsets that with a higher ground ball rate. Overall, these two have basically been the same pitcher all year long.
Yesterday, the last-place Nationals demoted Lannan to Double-A.
Both pitchers made brief big-league debuts in 2007 before becoming full-time starters for their respective clubs in 2008. Both proved to be workhorses in their first two big-league seasons, making 30-plus starts and averaging about 200 innings between the 2008 and 2009 campaigns. Most importantly for the purposes of this article, both were able to rise above rather unimpressive strikeout rates to post very respectable overall numbers during those first two seasons.
In 2008, Lannan went 9-15 with a 3.91 ERA over 182 innings despite a 5.8 K/9IP rate that fell well below the league average. That same year, Blackburn went 11-11 with a 4.05 ERA over 193 1/3 innings despite a 4.5 K/9IP rate that was even further below average.
In 2009, Lannan went 9-13 with a 3.88 ERA over 206 1/3 innings despite a 3.9 K/9IP rate. In Minnesota, Blackburn went 11-11 once again with a 4.03 ERA despite a 4.3 K/9IP rate.
Both pitchers were impressively managing to rack up quality innings despite their elevated contact rates. This year, however, they both have seen their already sub par strikeout rates drop through the floor, and it's no coincidence that both pitchers are seeing their overall performance plummet.
Blackburn and Lannan have been almost identical in their inability to throw the ball past hitters this year. Their K/9IP rates are 2.84 and 2.88, making them the only qualifying pitchers in all of the majors with rates below 3. They've both struck out about 7 percent of the total batters they've faced after striking out 11 percent in their first two seasons.
The results speak for themselves, and boy are they similar:
Blackburn, 2010: 76 IP, 5.80 ERA, 1.63 ERA, .337 BAA
Lannan, 2010: 75 IP, 5.76 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, .327 BAA
Blackburn possesses better control, but Lannan offsets that with a higher ground ball rate. Overall, these two have basically been the same pitcher all year long.
Yesterday, the last-place Nationals demoted Lannan to Double-A.
Monday, June 07, 2010
The Case of Nic Blacburn's Missing K's
The bullpen performed admirably in Oakland yesterday and a late two-run blast by Delmon Young (who had a tremendous series) pulled the Twins within one run, but ultimately the team came up just short in a 5-4 loss.
These factors made it all the more frustrating that Nick Blackburn put the Twins in such a huge hole to begin with. Despite pitching in one of baseball's most pitcher-friendly parks and against one of the worst offenses in the American League, Blackburn lasted just 2 2/3 innings and surrendered five runs on 10 hits.
After a terrible month of April, Blackburn seemed to be coming around in May when he went 5-0 with a 2.65 ERA and made a bid for Pitcher of the Month honors. Now, he's strung together his two worst starts of the year. Last week in Seattle he failed to complete four innings and yesterday he failed to complete even three.
In both cases, the opposing offense was terrible. In both cases, he allowed five runs on 10 hits, putting his team in a huge early hole on the road. In both cases, he failed to strike out a single batter.
That last sentence provides us with a pretty good explanation for Blackburn's struggles. He has now failed to record even one strikeout in five of his 11 starts this season. No other Twins starter has done it once.
Blackburn has never been a strikeout specialist, but his inability to miss bats this year has reached ridiculous levels. Of the 294 batters he's faced, he has struck out 17 of them. His rate of 2.27 strikeouts per nine innings ranks as the worst in all of baseball by a wide margin; next worst is John Lannan at 2.90. The next worst mark in the AL is Mitch Talbot at 3.91.
Blackburn's ability to put "sink" on the ball is a talking point for Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven every time he pitches, but no amount of sink is going to make up for such an exorbitant contact rate and Blackburn doesn't even induce ground balls at an elite rate. His 48.3 ground ball percentage ranks 35th out of 108 qualifying pitchers.
Hitters are making contact with 96 percent of Blackburn's offerings and they're elevating plenty of those pitches, so it should come as no surprise that the league is hitting .338 against the right-hander. This isn't the result of bad luck, as Blackburn's batting average on balls in play isn't too far above the league average and is basically in line with his career norms. It's not that a ridiculous number of balls in play are turning into hits behind Blackburn, it's that he's allowing a ridiculous number of balls in play to begin with.
Whether something is wrong with Blackburn physically or the league has just completely figured him out, something needs to be changed because there's almost no way he'll succeed when allowing this much contact. He's had a tough enough time posting solid numbers with a K/9 rate in the 4 range in years past, doing so with a rate that is close to 2 is basically impossible, especially with a middling grounder rate.
With Blackburn, Brendan Harris and Denard Span all struggling to varying to degrees, Bill Smith's decision to tender them all unnecessary multi-year contracts during the offseason is looking iffy. At least we can look at the numbers and see that Harris and Span have been somewhat unlucky; Blackburn is due for more of the same unless he can get back to striking out a remotely acceptable number of hitters.
These factors made it all the more frustrating that Nick Blackburn put the Twins in such a huge hole to begin with. Despite pitching in one of baseball's most pitcher-friendly parks and against one of the worst offenses in the American League, Blackburn lasted just 2 2/3 innings and surrendered five runs on 10 hits.
After a terrible month of April, Blackburn seemed to be coming around in May when he went 5-0 with a 2.65 ERA and made a bid for Pitcher of the Month honors. Now, he's strung together his two worst starts of the year. Last week in Seattle he failed to complete four innings and yesterday he failed to complete even three.
In both cases, the opposing offense was terrible. In both cases, he allowed five runs on 10 hits, putting his team in a huge early hole on the road. In both cases, he failed to strike out a single batter.
That last sentence provides us with a pretty good explanation for Blackburn's struggles. He has now failed to record even one strikeout in five of his 11 starts this season. No other Twins starter has done it once.
Blackburn has never been a strikeout specialist, but his inability to miss bats this year has reached ridiculous levels. Of the 294 batters he's faced, he has struck out 17 of them. His rate of 2.27 strikeouts per nine innings ranks as the worst in all of baseball by a wide margin; next worst is John Lannan at 2.90. The next worst mark in the AL is Mitch Talbot at 3.91.
Blackburn's ability to put "sink" on the ball is a talking point for Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven every time he pitches, but no amount of sink is going to make up for such an exorbitant contact rate and Blackburn doesn't even induce ground balls at an elite rate. His 48.3 ground ball percentage ranks 35th out of 108 qualifying pitchers.
Hitters are making contact with 96 percent of Blackburn's offerings and they're elevating plenty of those pitches, so it should come as no surprise that the league is hitting .338 against the right-hander. This isn't the result of bad luck, as Blackburn's batting average on balls in play isn't too far above the league average and is basically in line with his career norms. It's not that a ridiculous number of balls in play are turning into hits behind Blackburn, it's that he's allowing a ridiculous number of balls in play to begin with.
Whether something is wrong with Blackburn physically or the league has just completely figured him out, something needs to be changed because there's almost no way he'll succeed when allowing this much contact. He's had a tough enough time posting solid numbers with a K/9 rate in the 4 range in years past, doing so with a rate that is close to 2 is basically impossible, especially with a middling grounder rate.
With Blackburn, Brendan Harris and Denard Span all struggling to varying to degrees, Bill Smith's decision to tender them all unnecessary multi-year contracts during the offseason is looking iffy. At least we can look at the numbers and see that Harris and Span have been somewhat unlucky; Blackburn is due for more of the same unless he can get back to striking out a remotely acceptable number of hitters.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Quick Thoughts on Manship and Neshek
Our friend Phil Mackey had a bunch of interesting news tidbits within his latest filing on the ESPN 1500 SportsWire (which you should have bookmarked by now). Most intriguing among these are reports that Jeff Manship seems to be in line to start tomorrow and that Pat Neshek may soon be demoted to Rochester.
Manship's start tomorrow would come in place of Nick Blackburn, who has left the team to deal with a family matter. Manship, who posted a 5.68 ERA over 11 appearances for the Twins last season, may seem like a solid fill-in option based on his 3.48 ERA in four starts for the Red Wings this year, but a deeper look reveals that he hasn't been on top of his game.
While he's done a decent job of keeping runs off the board, Manship has yielded a .316 batting average to Triple-A hitters thus far. He's also getting more outs through the air than on the ground and he's already surrendered four home runs in 20 2/3 innings. Those are bad signs for a guy whose trademark coming up through the minors has been keeping the ball on the ground.
The more suitable candidate to make a spot start for the Twins would be Brian Duensing, but he's not stretched out since he's been pitching out of the bullpen. This is the downside to having your sixth starter working in a relief role; when needed in a pinch, he's not available. The Twins will have to hope that Manship can remain steady and get the job done tomorrow.
I was a bit surprised to read that the club is leaning toward sending Neshek to the minors, given how solid he'd looked over his first handful of appearances, but the move would not be unmerited. Neshek's availability as of late has been limited due to a finger injury and he couldn't throw strikes in his most recent appearance. More worrisome is that his velocity has dropped noticeably; the right-hander is averaging just 86.8 MPH with his fastball and he's showing significantly less faith in the pitch than in the past, having thrown it just 34 percent of the time compared to 45 percent last year and 51 percent in 2007.
A drop in a velocity and an unwillingness to lean on the fastball aren't uncommon traits for a pitcher fresh off Tommy John surgery, but if Neshek isn't at full strength the Twins would be wise to swap him with someone who can be relied upon right now, given that Jesse Crain has looked terrible. Maybe the team will finally give Anthony Slama a look, as the righty has continued to dominate by posting a 1.26 ERA and 18-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding opponents to a .109 average over 14 1/3 innings in Rochester this year.
Manship's start tomorrow would come in place of Nick Blackburn, who has left the team to deal with a family matter. Manship, who posted a 5.68 ERA over 11 appearances for the Twins last season, may seem like a solid fill-in option based on his 3.48 ERA in four starts for the Red Wings this year, but a deeper look reveals that he hasn't been on top of his game.
While he's done a decent job of keeping runs off the board, Manship has yielded a .316 batting average to Triple-A hitters thus far. He's also getting more outs through the air than on the ground and he's already surrendered four home runs in 20 2/3 innings. Those are bad signs for a guy whose trademark coming up through the minors has been keeping the ball on the ground.
The more suitable candidate to make a spot start for the Twins would be Brian Duensing, but he's not stretched out since he's been pitching out of the bullpen. This is the downside to having your sixth starter working in a relief role; when needed in a pinch, he's not available. The Twins will have to hope that Manship can remain steady and get the job done tomorrow.
I was a bit surprised to read that the club is leaning toward sending Neshek to the minors, given how solid he'd looked over his first handful of appearances, but the move would not be unmerited. Neshek's availability as of late has been limited due to a finger injury and he couldn't throw strikes in his most recent appearance. More worrisome is that his velocity has dropped noticeably; the right-hander is averaging just 86.8 MPH with his fastball and he's showing significantly less faith in the pitch than in the past, having thrown it just 34 percent of the time compared to 45 percent last year and 51 percent in 2007.
A drop in a velocity and an unwillingness to lean on the fastball aren't uncommon traits for a pitcher fresh off Tommy John surgery, but if Neshek isn't at full strength the Twins would be wise to swap him with someone who can be relied upon right now, given that Jesse Crain has looked terrible. Maybe the team will finally give Anthony Slama a look, as the righty has continued to dominate by posting a 1.26 ERA and 18-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding opponents to a .109 average over 14 1/3 innings in Rochester this year.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Sizing Up Nick Blackburn
Nick Blackburn chose the right time to put together his best stretch of baseball last season. In his final four regular-season starts, he went 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA and dazzling 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, leading the Twins to a 4-0 record and helping propel them to a postseason berth. He added another tremendous outing against the Yankees in the ALDS, helping cement his reputation as a big-game pitcher and sending Twins fans into the offseason with a very favorable impression of his game.
The outstanding clutch performance down the stretch helped fans forget about the rough patch that had preceded it. In the 11 games prior, Blackburn had gone 1-7 with a 7.36 ERA. Opponents hit .356 against him during that span, pounding 13 homers in 55 innings. The ugly string of games included one in which Blackburn helped blow a 10-run lead against the Athletics -- perhaps the year's most painful game -- and several others in which he lasted only a few innings and gave his team almost no chance to win. At times during these grueling couple of months, Blackburn seemed downright incapable of getting major-league hitters out.
As he has often done during his time with the Twins, Blackburn bounced back from this troubling stretch and made the adjustments necessary to get back on track. But his brutal run following the All Star break served as a reminder of the fickle nature of pitchers who fall into Blackburn's mold: low-strikeout, low-walk hurlers who allow a great deal of contact. Since Blackburn doesn't overpower hitters, he relies on the balls they hit off of him being converted into outs. And since he doesn't induce ground balls at an overwhelmingly high rate, his control over what happens with balls in play is limited.
It wasn't long ago that the Twins had a pitcher similar to Blackburn manning their rotation. It might be tough to remember at this point, but early in his time with the Twins Carlos Silva was indeed the same type of effective strike-throwing righty who relied on a sinking fastball to induce weak contact. Like Blackburn, Silva tended to allow a lot of hits, but his ability to limit walks and homers while drawing the occasional double play enabled him to be a successful pitcher during his first couple years in the Twins' rotation. In fact, comparing Silva's first two years with the Twins to Blackburn's two years in the rotation helps illustrate the similar styles:
Silva, 2004/05: 23-16, 3.84 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 3.4 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, .301 BAA
Blackburn, 2008/09: 22-22, 4.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, .291 BAA
Of course, we all know what happened to Silva in his third year with the Twins. He imploded, posting a 5.94 ERA while coughing up 38 home runs in 180 1/3 innings of work. Silva followed up that disastrous campaign with another solid season in '07 before signing a lucrative four-year deal with the Mariners, which ended up being an utter disaster for Seattle as Silva quickly ceased to be even remotely usable.
The outstanding clutch performance down the stretch helped fans forget about the rough patch that had preceded it. In the 11 games prior, Blackburn had gone 1-7 with a 7.36 ERA. Opponents hit .356 against him during that span, pounding 13 homers in 55 innings. The ugly string of games included one in which Blackburn helped blow a 10-run lead against the Athletics -- perhaps the year's most painful game -- and several others in which he lasted only a few innings and gave his team almost no chance to win. At times during these grueling couple of months, Blackburn seemed downright incapable of getting major-league hitters out.
As he has often done during his time with the Twins, Blackburn bounced back from this troubling stretch and made the adjustments necessary to get back on track. But his brutal run following the All Star break served as a reminder of the fickle nature of pitchers who fall into Blackburn's mold: low-strikeout, low-walk hurlers who allow a great deal of contact. Since Blackburn doesn't overpower hitters, he relies on the balls they hit off of him being converted into outs. And since he doesn't induce ground balls at an overwhelmingly high rate, his control over what happens with balls in play is limited.
It wasn't long ago that the Twins had a pitcher similar to Blackburn manning their rotation. It might be tough to remember at this point, but early in his time with the Twins Carlos Silva was indeed the same type of effective strike-throwing righty who relied on a sinking fastball to induce weak contact. Like Blackburn, Silva tended to allow a lot of hits, but his ability to limit walks and homers while drawing the occasional double play enabled him to be a successful pitcher during his first couple years in the Twins' rotation. In fact, comparing Silva's first two years with the Twins to Blackburn's two years in the rotation helps illustrate the similar styles:
Silva, 2004/05: 23-16, 3.84 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 3.4 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, .301 BAA
Blackburn, 2008/09: 22-22, 4.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, .291 BAA
Of course, we all know what happened to Silva in his third year with the Twins. He imploded, posting a 5.94 ERA while coughing up 38 home runs in 180 1/3 innings of work. Silva followed up that disastrous campaign with another solid season in '07 before signing a lucrative four-year deal with the Mariners, which ended up being an utter disaster for Seattle as Silva quickly ceased to be even remotely usable.
To be perfectly clear, this post is not meant to suggest that I expect Blackburn to meet the same fate as Silva. Plenty of pitchers have found prolonged success while posting middling strikeout rates and inducing grounders around 45 percent of the time (Joe Blanton is a good example). Furthermore, Blackburn is a good pitcher; he has put together three consecutive impressive seasons and has demonstrated that he can overcome his lack of overpowering stuff by making adjustments while pitching aggressively and fearlessly against big-league lineups.
But, Blackburn's post-break slump last year, along with Silva's 2006, should serve as a reminder that pitchers in this mold tread a rather thin line and don't have a whole lot of margin for error. If something is even slightly off, major-league hitters will take full advantage.
The Twins currently sport a solid rotation one-through-five, but they don't have much quality depth to speak of, so if Blackburn's game goes south it could mean trouble. For that reason, we'll all have to hope that the guy who takes the hill for the Twins this year is a lot more similar to that bulldog who took the team on his shoulders in the waning weeks of the 2009 season than the guy who was shelled repeatedly in the two months prior.
I think he will be.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Monday Notepad
After dropping yesterday's series finale against the Indians 7-4, the Twins have now lost five consecutive series while falling six games behind the Tigers for first place in the AL Central. A few notes on yesterday's game and some other topics:
* Nick Blackburn cruised through two innings yesterday before collapsing in the third, when the Indians opened the inning by going homer, homer, hit by pitch, homer, single, double, groundout, single -- scoring six times before Blackburn was removed. He has now surrendered 33 earned runs on 59 hits over 32 2/3 innings in seven starts since his complete-game victory over the Tigers on July 5. The Twins have gone 1-7 in those games. While Anthony Swarzak isn't exactly making a strong case to remain in the rotation, I don't see any way the Twins can keep running Blackburn out there right now.
* I've been pretty hesitant to jump on the Twitter bandwagon. I created an account a couple months ago so I could follow certain people, but up until this past weekend I had never made a single "tweet." I've had a hard time convincing myself to become a fully integrated user, largely because the premise seemed in many ways redundant with Facebook and because the prospect of familiarizing myself with the intricacies of the service struck as overly time-consuming and daunting.
* Nick Blackburn cruised through two innings yesterday before collapsing in the third, when the Indians opened the inning by going homer, homer, hit by pitch, homer, single, double, groundout, single -- scoring six times before Blackburn was removed. He has now surrendered 33 earned runs on 59 hits over 32 2/3 innings in seven starts since his complete-game victory over the Tigers on July 5. The Twins have gone 1-7 in those games. While Anthony Swarzak isn't exactly making a strong case to remain in the rotation, I don't see any way the Twins can keep running Blackburn out there right now.
* I've been pretty hesitant to jump on the Twitter bandwagon. I created an account a couple months ago so I could follow certain people, but up until this past weekend I had never made a single "tweet." I've had a hard time convincing myself to become a fully integrated user, largely because the premise seemed in many ways redundant with Facebook and because the prospect of familiarizing myself with the intricacies of the service struck as overly time-consuming and daunting.
Yet, at the strong urging of a number of people, I made my first tweet over the weekend and plan to become a more active Twitter participant going forward. For all you existing users out there, feel free to become a follower @nnelson9 and I'm sure I'll follow you back. My updates are sure to include plenty of Twins fodder, as well as random musings and perhaps even updates on my burgeoning rap career.
* Today represents the deadline for signing draft picks, and the Twins' top pick, Kyle Gibson, remains unsigned as I write this article. While there have been reports that the two sides are struggling to close the rather wide gap in their demands, I remain confident that Gibson will sign before the day is over. If he doesn't, though, it's going to be a disaster. Not only because this organization desperately needa to augment its thin starting pitching depth, but also because a failure to sign its first-round pick will make the team's refusal to chase Type A free agents this past offseason look awfully silly.
* I was thinking about writing a post on how ridiculous it is to posit that anyone other than Joe Mauer should be the front-runner for the AL MVP award at this point, but my favorite scribe Joe Posnanski has already covered the topic splendidly.
* Today represents the deadline for signing draft picks, and the Twins' top pick, Kyle Gibson, remains unsigned as I write this article. While there have been reports that the two sides are struggling to close the rather wide gap in their demands, I remain confident that Gibson will sign before the day is over. If he doesn't, though, it's going to be a disaster. Not only because this organization desperately needa to augment its thin starting pitching depth, but also because a failure to sign its first-round pick will make the team's refusal to chase Type A free agents this past offseason look awfully silly.
* I was thinking about writing a post on how ridiculous it is to posit that anyone other than Joe Mauer should be the front-runner for the AL MVP award at this point, but my favorite scribe Joe Posnanski has already covered the topic splendidly.
* One of the moves stemming from Glen Perkins' placement on the DL last week and Jeff Manship's promotion to the major-league roster to replace him was that Anthony Slama was at long last moved up to Rochester after dominating Double-A batters over four months. It might have been surprising to some that I didn't write up a lengthy missive detailing my thoughts on this move, given that I've ranted about this organization's handling of Slama on several occasions in the past (most recently here), but in truth -- aside from my initial relief at this long-deserved promotion -- I didn't have much to say about it.
Yes, I'm glad that Slama has finally been moved to a more appropriate level of competition. But this should have happened months ago (particularly accounting for the fact that there's no way Slama should have spent the entire 2008 season in Single-A). I don't really want to get into this whole debate again, but as much as some people want to claim that the team's conservative handling of Slama was justified based on the reliever's control issues and the organization's ambiguous viewpoint that he "isn't ready," I can't be convinced that any pitcher is capable of making meaningful improvements when he's not being challenged by opposing hitters. Accuse me all you want of leaning too hard on the statistics, but Slama's numbers in Double-A lead to the almost undeniable conclusion that he was completely and totally overmatching hitters at that level of competition. Regardless of one's feelings about Slama's true value as a prospect and his chances of developing into an impact major-league arm, I just don't see how it could possibly be argued that he rightfully belonged at that level anymore.
I'm glad Slama is finally getting a chance to prove himself against the highest level of minor-league hitters, and we'll see how his stuff and command plays in Rochester. In two appearances since being promoted, he has thus far allowed no runs on one hit and one walk while striking out three over two innings.
* Yesterday's Red Wings game, in fact, featured three pitchers who could merit a look in the Twins' bullpen. Along with Slama, who handled the ninth, the 8-1 victory also featured a scoreless inning of relief from Rob Delaney, who now holds a 2.92 ERA and 31-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 innings since being moved up from New Britain, and also a brilliant start from Armando Gabino, a former reliever who has been moved into a starting role due to the depletion of Rochester's starting corps. Gabino hurled seven innings of one-run ball, allowing only three hits and a walk while striking out nine, and now holds a 2.93 ERA and 54-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 83 innings this year, during which he has allowed only 64 hits. Given that the Twins continue to lean on Bobby Keppel, who has allowed runs in eight of his past 11 relief appearances, it certainly seems as though they could give any of of these three pitchers a chance in at a righty relief role in the majors.
* Yesterday's Red Wings game, in fact, featured three pitchers who could merit a look in the Twins' bullpen. Along with Slama, who handled the ninth, the 8-1 victory also featured a scoreless inning of relief from Rob Delaney, who now holds a 2.92 ERA and 31-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 innings since being moved up from New Britain, and also a brilliant start from Armando Gabino, a former reliever who has been moved into a starting role due to the depletion of Rochester's starting corps. Gabino hurled seven innings of one-run ball, allowing only three hits and a walk while striking out nine, and now holds a 2.93 ERA and 54-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 83 innings this year, during which he has allowed only 64 hits. Given that the Twins continue to lean on Bobby Keppel, who has allowed runs in eight of his past 11 relief appearances, it certainly seems as though they could give any of of these three pitchers a chance in at a righty relief role in the majors.
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
Catching Up
Hey all. I'm just going to try and get caught up with some quick thoughts today. I've been insanely busy lately, for reasons I will explain soon.
* The All-Star rosters were announced this weekend, and the Twins' representatives came as no surprise. Joe Mauer, who was voted in overwhelmingly by the fans, will serve as the AL's starting catcher. Meanwhile, Justin Morneau was selected as a backup at first base and Joe Nathan as a member of the bullpen. These three players are all having All-Star caliber years and are basically the only players on the Twins roster who are (with the possible exception of Nick Blackburn), so I've got no grudges with the All-Star selecting process as far as Twins players are concerned.
* Speaking of Blackburn, he tossed his third complete game of the season on Sunday in the Twins' finale against Detroit, and is now sitting with a phenomenal 2.94 ERA (sixth in the AL) over 116 1/3 innings of work (fifth in the AL). With his low strikeout rates and non-elite ground ball rates, Blackburn seemed like a candidate to regress this season, but he continues to confound statisticians and is soundly outperforming his 4.92 xFIP.
I'm not a diehard Sabermetric guy and I'm certainly willing to accept that there are certain things about Blackburn's game that could consistently allow him to get better results than some normally accurate statistics would predict. He has demonstrated quite clearly that when he's on he can hit his spots at will and I think he has a fantastic ability to keep hitters off balance by changing speeds and keeping the ball away from the center of the plate. He won't continue to hold opposing batters to a .192/.257/.283 line with runners in scoring position and I don't think he'll maintain a sub-3 ERA from here on out, but obviously he's been a tremendously pleasant surprise this season and certainly don't think his success is a giant mirage.
* The Twins have been quite active in the international signing arena this year, and I couldn't be more pleased. Jorge Arangure, a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine who tracks international players and signings, reported via his Twitter account the Twins have signed switch-hitting Dominican shortstop Jorge Polanco with a sizable $700K bonus, and Ben Badler of Baseball America reported that the Twins have tabbed 16-year-old German outfielder Max Kepler, who has been touted as the best prospect to come out of Europe this year. One scout (quoted in the linked article) stated definitely that Kepler is "the toolsiest kid we've ever had in Europe." Sounds like a good find.
The Twins were also reportedly one of a handful of teams in on Miguel Angel Sano, a (purportedly) 16-year-old shortstop who is widely considered the top international prospect available this season and who is likely to sign for up to $4 million. It sounds now like they've fallen out of the race -- likely in no small part because of the two signings mentioned above -- but their pursuit of him in conjunction with those two relatively big-money signings is extremely encouraging. Given their disadvantage in the domestic free agent market, I've always felt the Twins should try to be a bit more aggressive in signing top foreign talent.
* How was Joe Mauer not the unanimous winner of the catcher spot in the All-Star balloting recently conducted among ESPN's "top baseball minds"? Did Keith Law get five votes?
Friday, June 19, 2009
Wrapping Up the Week
I was busy sabotaging Twins Geek's blog yesterday so I didn't get a chance to post here, but today I'll drop a few Twins notes as we head into what should be a beautiful weekend here in the Twin Cities...
* Despite once again performing dreadfully with runners in scoring position, the Twins were able to complete a series win over the Pirates yesterday, riding a complete-game gem from Nick Blackburn to a 5-1 victory.
A day after going 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position, the Twins went 1-for-11 yesterday, continually failing to capitalize on opportunities to break the game open. Brian Buscher's late two-run homer made the game look a lot less close than it really was. This team has got to start putting together better at-bats with runners on second and third.
On the (very) bright side, Blackburn sparkled again, coming within one out of a shutout before surrendering an RBI single to Adam LaRoche with two outs in the ninth. Blackburn notched only two strikeouts over his nine innings of work, but allowed just six hits and got 16 outs via ground ball in the sterling effort. He's now 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA this season, and will warrant serious All-Star consideration if he can keep this up for a few more starts.
* Several Twins fans I spoke with prior to the start of yesterday's game seemed disgruntled that Joe Mauer wasn't in the starting lineup. I found this to be a bit shocking. I don't know if people realize how much Mauer has been playing this year.
Since Mauer returned to the lineup on May 1, the Twins have played 46 games. Of those games, Mauer has appeared in 43 and started in 41. That means he's appeared in 93.5 percent of the team's games since his return, and started 89.1 percent. For comparison, in 2008, Mauer appeared in 90.1 percent of the team's games and started 85.8 percent of them. Russell Martin, who led all major-league catchers in games played and at-bats last year, played in 95.7 percent of the Dodgers' games and started 90.7 percent of them.
So basically, since joining the team, Mauer has been in the lineup at nearly the same rate as last year's major-league leader, in spite of the Twins' initial insistence that they'd be cautious with his playing time due to the back injury that kept him sidelined for the first month of the season. And through all that, he's still hitting .425. Amazing.
* After doubling in yesterday's game, Nick Punto now has one more extra-base hit than Delmon Young this season.
* Back at the .500 mark, the Twins haven't lost a series since dropping two of three to the Mariners early in the month, and they'll look to carry that streak forward as they take on the Astros at home this weekend, where they'll face three right-handed starters. The pitching match-ups:
Friday: Kevin Slowey vs. Roy Oswalt
Saturday: Scott Baker vs. Brian Moehler
Sunday: Glen Perkins vs. Wandy Rodriguez
* Despite once again performing dreadfully with runners in scoring position, the Twins were able to complete a series win over the Pirates yesterday, riding a complete-game gem from Nick Blackburn to a 5-1 victory.
A day after going 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position, the Twins went 1-for-11 yesterday, continually failing to capitalize on opportunities to break the game open. Brian Buscher's late two-run homer made the game look a lot less close than it really was. This team has got to start putting together better at-bats with runners on second and third.
On the (very) bright side, Blackburn sparkled again, coming within one out of a shutout before surrendering an RBI single to Adam LaRoche with two outs in the ninth. Blackburn notched only two strikeouts over his nine innings of work, but allowed just six hits and got 16 outs via ground ball in the sterling effort. He's now 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA this season, and will warrant serious All-Star consideration if he can keep this up for a few more starts.
* Several Twins fans I spoke with prior to the start of yesterday's game seemed disgruntled that Joe Mauer wasn't in the starting lineup. I found this to be a bit shocking. I don't know if people realize how much Mauer has been playing this year.
Since Mauer returned to the lineup on May 1, the Twins have played 46 games. Of those games, Mauer has appeared in 43 and started in 41. That means he's appeared in 93.5 percent of the team's games since his return, and started 89.1 percent. For comparison, in 2008, Mauer appeared in 90.1 percent of the team's games and started 85.8 percent of them. Russell Martin, who led all major-league catchers in games played and at-bats last year, played in 95.7 percent of the Dodgers' games and started 90.7 percent of them.
So basically, since joining the team, Mauer has been in the lineup at nearly the same rate as last year's major-league leader, in spite of the Twins' initial insistence that they'd be cautious with his playing time due to the back injury that kept him sidelined for the first month of the season. And through all that, he's still hitting .425. Amazing.
* After doubling in yesterday's game, Nick Punto now has one more extra-base hit than Delmon Young this season.
* Back at the .500 mark, the Twins haven't lost a series since dropping two of three to the Mariners early in the month, and they'll look to carry that streak forward as they take on the Astros at home this weekend, where they'll face three right-handed starters. The pitching match-ups:
Friday: Kevin Slowey vs. Roy Oswalt
Saturday: Scott Baker vs. Brian Moehler
Sunday: Glen Perkins vs. Wandy Rodriguez
Friday, April 24, 2009
Rough Starts
Here are the basic pitching statistics for the Twins' five current starters as of today:
Francisco Liriano is 0-4 with a 7.06 ERA
Scott Baker is 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA
Nick Blackburn is 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA
Kevin Slowey is 2-0 with a 5.89 ERA
Glen Perkins is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA
Shoddy, underperforming starting pitching early in the season -- this feels vaguely familiar. On April 24, 2006...
Johan Santana was 0-3 with a 4.81 ERA.
Brad Radke was 2-2 with a 7.50 ERA
Carlos Silva was 1-3 with an 8.33 ERA.
Kyle Lohse was 1-1 with an 11.57 ERA
Scott Baker was 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA
Now, this comparison is obviously to be taken with a grain of salt since the differences between the rotation that opened the 2006 season and the Twins' current stable of starting pitchers are vast. The point of bringing up these stat lines is to remind everyone that there's a recent local precedent for almost roundly underwhelming starting pitching performances out of the gate, and it doesn't necessarily doom an entire season.
In '06, Silva and Lohse never really rebounded from their poor starts, as Silva went on to post an 11-15 record and 5.94 ERA while Lohse was booted from the rotation and later traded to the Reds with a 7.07 ERA. Baker fell off after his solid start and was also eventually removed from the rotation. Yet, Santana came back strong and ended up winning the Cy Young Award and Radke -- a pitcher with notable similarities to a few members of the current staff -- also rebounded to become a key contributor the team's amazing second-half run.
What the 2009 Twins lack is a Francisco Liriano -- or, to a lesser extent, a Boof Bonser -- who can step in from the minors and energize the rotation. Therefore, internal improvement will be the key factor for this current group. Based on their career histories and the way they finished last year, there's little reason to believe that Liriano and Baker will continue to pitch this poorly unless there are underlying health issues. Meanwhile, Slowey already showed signs of getting back on track with a very strong showing last Saturday, and he'll look to continue that progress tomorrow night against the Indians.
I'd be lying if I said I weren't somewhat concerned with the dud performances the Twins' starting pitchers have been putting forth on most nights, but I also have a very difficult time believing this nearly team-wide slump is going to last. These guys are too talented to continue getting hit this hard. Hopefully the turn-around begins tonight in Cleveland.
Francisco Liriano is 0-4 with a 7.06 ERA
Scott Baker is 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA
Nick Blackburn is 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA
Kevin Slowey is 2-0 with a 5.89 ERA
Glen Perkins is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA
Shoddy, underperforming starting pitching early in the season -- this feels vaguely familiar. On April 24, 2006...
Johan Santana was 0-3 with a 4.81 ERA.
Brad Radke was 2-2 with a 7.50 ERA
Carlos Silva was 1-3 with an 8.33 ERA.
Kyle Lohse was 1-1 with an 11.57 ERA
Scott Baker was 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA
Now, this comparison is obviously to be taken with a grain of salt since the differences between the rotation that opened the 2006 season and the Twins' current stable of starting pitchers are vast. The point of bringing up these stat lines is to remind everyone that there's a recent local precedent for almost roundly underwhelming starting pitching performances out of the gate, and it doesn't necessarily doom an entire season.
In '06, Silva and Lohse never really rebounded from their poor starts, as Silva went on to post an 11-15 record and 5.94 ERA while Lohse was booted from the rotation and later traded to the Reds with a 7.07 ERA. Baker fell off after his solid start and was also eventually removed from the rotation. Yet, Santana came back strong and ended up winning the Cy Young Award and Radke -- a pitcher with notable similarities to a few members of the current staff -- also rebounded to become a key contributor the team's amazing second-half run.
What the 2009 Twins lack is a Francisco Liriano -- or, to a lesser extent, a Boof Bonser -- who can step in from the minors and energize the rotation. Therefore, internal improvement will be the key factor for this current group. Based on their career histories and the way they finished last year, there's little reason to believe that Liriano and Baker will continue to pitch this poorly unless there are underlying health issues. Meanwhile, Slowey already showed signs of getting back on track with a very strong showing last Saturday, and he'll look to continue that progress tomorrow night against the Indians.
I'd be lying if I said I weren't somewhat concerned with the dud performances the Twins' starting pitchers have been putting forth on most nights, but I also have a very difficult time believing this nearly team-wide slump is going to last. These guys are too talented to continue getting hit this hard. Hopefully the turn-around begins tonight in Cleveland.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher
I took part in an AL Central preview podcast last week in which Seth Stohs interviewed bloggers from each division team and got their thoughts on the division. When talking about the Twins, the part of the team that nearly everyone mentioned first was the starting rotation. Fans of other teams (and the other teams themselves, I'm sure) greatly respect the Twins' stable of starting pitchers, and with good reason. It's a young and talented group that is very solid one-through-five; in fact, their weakest link is a hard-throwing left-hander who was formerly a top prospect and who just posted a 4.41 ERA in his rookie season.
Regression and injuries are bound to occur, but entering the season, the rotation appears to be the Twins' strongest unit. The depth behind these five is fairly questionable, but if everyone can stay on the field and continue to improve, this group has the potential to carry the Twins into October. Let's take a look at each member of The Fab Five:
Scott Baker
2008 Stats: 172.1 IP, 11-4, 3.45 ERA, 141 K / 42 BB, 1.18 WHIP
At the beginning of the 2007 season, Baker was an afterthought in the minds of most Twins fans, as he was coming off a putrid 2006 campaign and had become lost in the shuffle behind guys like Johan Santana, Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva, Kevin Slowey, Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson. Two years later, hes slated to be the team's Opening Day starter, and with good reason. Throughout the 2008 season, Baker was the Twins most steady and reliable starter. While he might not match his 3.45 ERA from a year ago, he should continue to be a rock at the top of the Twins' rotation.
Francisco Liriano
2008 Stats: 76 IP, 6-4, 3.91 ERA, 67 K / 32 BB, 1.40 WHIP
When he first joined the Twins' rotation in 2006, Liriano had a pretty spectacular stretch, going 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over his first 10 starts. Last year, when he rejoined the Twins' rotation in August after spending three months in the minors, Liriano brought back fond memories, going 5-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his first eight starts. Of course, last year's Liriano wasn't quite as electric as the rookie version, and his overall season last year wasn't nearly as amazing due to the struggles in April and late September, but Liriano reminded us all that he's capable of dominating major-league hitters even after undergoing Tommy John surgery. A full season of performance anywhere close to the level he pitched at in August of last year, and Liriano is an ace type pitcher and a terrific complement to Baker atop the rotation. Frisco's surgically repaired elbow held up through 199 1/3 total innings last season; we'll be crossing our fingers and hoping it can survive a similar workload this year.
Kevin Slowey
2008 Stats: 160.1 IP, 12-11, 3.99 ERA, 123 K / 24 BB, 1.15 WHIP
Slowey might be the starter I'm most excited to watch this year. He had his hiccups in his first full season last year, but also tossed a few absolute gems (two shutouts and a 12-strikeout performance against Oakland come to mind). Slowey is not a fireballer and he lacks great secondary stuff, but he's one of the most poised and intelligent pitchers I've seen. He'll always give up a fair number of homers, but as long as he can continue to limit their damage by keeping runners off the bases (his WHIP would have ranked fourth in the AL last year had he not narrowly missed qualifying), he'll be successful.
Glen Perkins
2008 Stats: 151 IP, 12-4, 4.41 ERA, 74 K / 39 BB, 1.47 WHIP
2008 Stats: 193.3 IP, 11-11, 4.05 ERA, 96 K / 39 BB, 1.36 WHIP
It was a surprise to most that Blackburn made the Twins' rotation out of spring training last year. It was probably a surprise to all that he stayed there for the whole season, posting solid numbers and leading the team in innings. Aside from his excellent walk rate, nothing on Blackburn's stat sheet jumps out at you. He had a .500 record and a middling strikeout rate. He gave up a fairly high number of hits and gave up some homers. His ERA was exactly league average. Yet, getting that kind of production over 200 innings from the back end of your rotation -- particularly from a guy who had zero experience in a big-league rotation -- has plenty of value, which is why Blackburn received a few Rookie of the Year votes. Blackburn must now prove that his successful '08 season was not a fluke, but with his ability to attack the strike zone and induce ground balls at a solid rate, he's hardly a major concern.
Regression and injuries are bound to occur, but entering the season, the rotation appears to be the Twins' strongest unit. The depth behind these five is fairly questionable, but if everyone can stay on the field and continue to improve, this group has the potential to carry the Twins into October. Let's take a look at each member of The Fab Five:
Scott Baker
2008 Stats: 172.1 IP, 11-4, 3.45 ERA, 141 K / 42 BB, 1.18 WHIP
At the beginning of the 2007 season, Baker was an afterthought in the minds of most Twins fans, as he was coming off a putrid 2006 campaign and had become lost in the shuffle behind guys like Johan Santana, Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva, Kevin Slowey, Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson. Two years later, hes slated to be the team's Opening Day starter, and with good reason. Throughout the 2008 season, Baker was the Twins most steady and reliable starter. While he might not match his 3.45 ERA from a year ago, he should continue to be a rock at the top of the Twins' rotation.
Francisco Liriano
2008 Stats: 76 IP, 6-4, 3.91 ERA, 67 K / 32 BB, 1.40 WHIP
When he first joined the Twins' rotation in 2006, Liriano had a pretty spectacular stretch, going 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over his first 10 starts. Last year, when he rejoined the Twins' rotation in August after spending three months in the minors, Liriano brought back fond memories, going 5-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his first eight starts. Of course, last year's Liriano wasn't quite as electric as the rookie version, and his overall season last year wasn't nearly as amazing due to the struggles in April and late September, but Liriano reminded us all that he's capable of dominating major-league hitters even after undergoing Tommy John surgery. A full season of performance anywhere close to the level he pitched at in August of last year, and Liriano is an ace type pitcher and a terrific complement to Baker atop the rotation. Frisco's surgically repaired elbow held up through 199 1/3 total innings last season; we'll be crossing our fingers and hoping it can survive a similar workload this year.
Kevin Slowey
2008 Stats: 160.1 IP, 12-11, 3.99 ERA, 123 K / 24 BB, 1.15 WHIP
Slowey might be the starter I'm most excited to watch this year. He had his hiccups in his first full season last year, but also tossed a few absolute gems (two shutouts and a 12-strikeout performance against Oakland come to mind). Slowey is not a fireballer and he lacks great secondary stuff, but he's one of the most poised and intelligent pitchers I've seen. He'll always give up a fair number of homers, but as long as he can continue to limit their damage by keeping runners off the bases (his WHIP would have ranked fourth in the AL last year had he not narrowly missed qualifying), he'll be successful.
Glen Perkins
2008 Stats: 151 IP, 12-4, 4.41 ERA, 74 K / 39 BB, 1.47 WHIP
Perkins will probably slot as the Twins No. 4 starter due to Ron Gardenhire's preference to alternate righties and lefties in the rotation (even though this doesn't really matter -- there will be two consecutive right-handers no matter what alignment he chooses), for all intents and purposes he enters the season as the team's fifth starter. He's probably the guy worth worrying about most; with his high hit rate, low ground ball rate and paltry strikeout rate, his 12 wins and 3.96 ERA entering September last year seemed like the stuff of smoke and mirrors. Sure enough, over the season's final month he posted a 7.45 ERA while allowing 33 hits and seven homers in 19 1/3 innings. I remain bullish on Perkins though, and while he's not destined to post outstanding numbers if he pitches the way he did last year, by continuing to make adjustments he can certainly hold up as a quality back-of-the-rotation starter. It'd be great if he could remember how to miss bats the way he did in the minors, where he struck out more than a batter per inning.
Nick Blackburn2008 Stats: 193.3 IP, 11-11, 4.05 ERA, 96 K / 39 BB, 1.36 WHIP
It was a surprise to most that Blackburn made the Twins' rotation out of spring training last year. It was probably a surprise to all that he stayed there for the whole season, posting solid numbers and leading the team in innings. Aside from his excellent walk rate, nothing on Blackburn's stat sheet jumps out at you. He had a .500 record and a middling strikeout rate. He gave up a fairly high number of hits and gave up some homers. His ERA was exactly league average. Yet, getting that kind of production over 200 innings from the back end of your rotation -- particularly from a guy who had zero experience in a big-league rotation -- has plenty of value, which is why Blackburn received a few Rookie of the Year votes. Blackburn must now prove that his successful '08 season was not a fluke, but with his ability to attack the strike zone and induce ground balls at a solid rate, he's hardly a major concern.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Resurgent Rookies
Yesterday, the winners of the Rookie of the Year Award for both the American League and National League were announced. The top vote-getters, as expected and as picked by myself a month ago, were Rays third baseman Evan Longoria and Cubs catcher Geovany Soto.
As I noted when I picked my postseason award winners, the AL honor belonged to Longoria and it was "no contest." Yet, it's interesting to glance over the other players who received votes from the Writers' Association. White Sox second baseman Alexei Ramirez finished second behind Longoria (who received all 28 first-place votes), and Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury came in third. A look at the other players who received votes yields a couple familiar names:
That the Twins had a couple players receive votes for the ROTY award is not particularly exciting or surprising, but that those players ended up being Span and Blackburn has to be viewed with some measure of intrigue given the paths that both young men have followed.Mike Aviles, Royals, 9; Armando Galarraga, Tigers, 9; Joey Devine, A's, 3; Denard Span, Twins, 3; Nick Blackburn, Twins, 1; Joba Chamberlain, Yankees, 1; Brad Ziegler, A's, 1.
Blackburn was 26 years old all season long, which is not terribly young for a first-year major-leaguer. He never followed the profile of a top prospect; the Twins drafted him out a small college in the 29th round of the 2001 draft and he debuted in rookie ball as a 20-year-old. He had intermittent success as he worked his way up through the low levels of the minors, but he never displayed much dominance and wasn't what you would call a fast riser. After fanning 7.04 batters per nine innings as a 22-year-old in Low-A ball, Blackburn never posted a K/9 rate higher than 5.51 and was relatively hittable everywhere he went. By spring of 2007, he was a 25-year-old preparing to start his third season at the Double-A level after posting mediocre numbers there the prior year. Simply put, Blackburn was the type of guy who prospect buffs pass off as a nobody.
That's when Blackburn turned his career around. He went 3-1 with a 3.08 ERA over his first eight appearances with New Britain, and was then bumped up to Rochester, where he surprised almost everyone by going on a spectacular run. Soon after joining the Red Wings, Blackburn entered a streak where he pitched over 40 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run, a span that encompassed the entire month of June. He ended up going 7-3 with a 2.11 ERA in 17 starts with Rochester, earning a September call-up to the big leagues and, in the offseason, a spot on top of Baseball America's list of the Twins' top prospects. Now, a very solid first full season at the major-league level has earned Blackburn a Rookie of the Year vote and a definite spot in this organization's future plans.
Span has followed a very different but equally unconventional path. When the Twins selected Span with their first-round pick in 2003, many viewed him as perhaps the ultimate replacement to another former toolsy high-school draft pick who was currently roaming center field in the Metrodome. This created a lot of pressure for the speedy teenager, and he increased expectations by posting a .339/.410/.403 line over the first half of the 2005 season as a 21-year-old in High-A Ft. Myers and then finishing the year by posting some respectable numbers in Double-A. Span seemed to be brimming with potential, and with his athleticism, it seemed that all he needed to do was keep improving and he'd be ready to roam the Twins' outfield in no time.
Unfortunately, the improvements didn't come. In 2006, Span repeated Double-A and posted a .285/.340/.349 line that was nearly identical to the .285/.355/.345 line he'd posted there during the second half of the previous year. Despite a lack of true success, Span was moved up to Triple-A in 2007, where he posted a pedestrian .267/.323/.355 line. With four-and-a-half years of pro ball under his belt, Span had seemingly settled into a niche as a nice defensive outfielder with some speed who could hit for a decent average but wouldn't ever get on base or hit with enough power to justify a regular spot in a major league outfield.
Yet, just like Blackburn, Span seemed to have a light-bulb snap in his fifth full season as a pro. He went on a tear in Rochester, producing like he never had before since being drafted. It wasn't the high batting average (.340) or the speed (15 stolen bases in 40 games) that came as such a shock. It was the newfound plate discipline (36/26 K/BB, .434 OBP) and power (3 HR in 40 games after totaling 7 HR in 509 prior minor-league games) that created real cause for excitement. After a short April stint with the Twins, Span was recalled in June and he proved that his success in Rochester was no fluke, actually improving on his patience and power (60/50 K/BB and 6 HR in 93 games). Like Blackburn, Span has gone from afterthought to big-league fixture in just a short two-year frame.
Those (like me) who tend to follow and obsess over prospects will always focus on a few key aspects of a player's performance: with pitchers, the ability to miss bats and limit walks; with hitters, the ability to take walks, make contact and hit for power. The two young players featured in this article both consistently displayed massive weaknesses in some of these areas -- Blackburn with his inability to post impressive strikeout rates and Span with his lacking on-base skills and totally absent power stroke.
That's when Blackburn turned his career around. He went 3-1 with a 3.08 ERA over his first eight appearances with New Britain, and was then bumped up to Rochester, where he surprised almost everyone by going on a spectacular run. Soon after joining the Red Wings, Blackburn entered a streak where he pitched over 40 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run, a span that encompassed the entire month of June. He ended up going 7-3 with a 2.11 ERA in 17 starts with Rochester, earning a September call-up to the big leagues and, in the offseason, a spot on top of Baseball America's list of the Twins' top prospects. Now, a very solid first full season at the major-league level has earned Blackburn a Rookie of the Year vote and a definite spot in this organization's future plans.
Span has followed a very different but equally unconventional path. When the Twins selected Span with their first-round pick in 2003, many viewed him as perhaps the ultimate replacement to another former toolsy high-school draft pick who was currently roaming center field in the Metrodome. This created a lot of pressure for the speedy teenager, and he increased expectations by posting a .339/.410/.403 line over the first half of the 2005 season as a 21-year-old in High-A Ft. Myers and then finishing the year by posting some respectable numbers in Double-A. Span seemed to be brimming with potential, and with his athleticism, it seemed that all he needed to do was keep improving and he'd be ready to roam the Twins' outfield in no time.
Unfortunately, the improvements didn't come. In 2006, Span repeated Double-A and posted a .285/.340/.349 line that was nearly identical to the .285/.355/.345 line he'd posted there during the second half of the previous year. Despite a lack of true success, Span was moved up to Triple-A in 2007, where he posted a pedestrian .267/.323/.355 line. With four-and-a-half years of pro ball under his belt, Span had seemingly settled into a niche as a nice defensive outfielder with some speed who could hit for a decent average but wouldn't ever get on base or hit with enough power to justify a regular spot in a major league outfield.
Yet, just like Blackburn, Span seemed to have a light-bulb snap in his fifth full season as a pro. He went on a tear in Rochester, producing like he never had before since being drafted. It wasn't the high batting average (.340) or the speed (15 stolen bases in 40 games) that came as such a shock. It was the newfound plate discipline (36/26 K/BB, .434 OBP) and power (3 HR in 40 games after totaling 7 HR in 509 prior minor-league games) that created real cause for excitement. After a short April stint with the Twins, Span was recalled in June and he proved that his success in Rochester was no fluke, actually improving on his patience and power (60/50 K/BB and 6 HR in 93 games). Like Blackburn, Span has gone from afterthought to big-league fixture in just a short two-year frame.
Those (like me) who tend to follow and obsess over prospects will always focus on a few key aspects of a player's performance: with pitchers, the ability to miss bats and limit walks; with hitters, the ability to take walks, make contact and hit for power. The two young players featured in this article both consistently displayed massive weaknesses in some of these areas -- Blackburn with his inability to post impressive strikeout rates and Span with his lacking on-base skills and totally absent power stroke.
And despite all their doubters, both players turned a corner and became crucial members of this year's surprising near-playoff team. Blackburn more than held his own against major-league hitters and delivered a tremendous outing in the biggest game of the season. Span was a spark plug at the top of the order, providing the Twins with their first true leadoff hitter since... Chuck Knoblauch, maybe?
Now, this is not meant to be a total abandonment of those prospect-analysis tenets. It remains true that pitchers who can't strike minor-league hitters out and don't reach the big-leagues until they're 26 aren't usually bound for success. It also remains true that speedy, diminutive outfielders who show almost no power or patience over their first full years generally won't suddenly develop both those skills at the age of 24. But Blackburn and Span should serve as loud reminders that players can adjust and improve, even if it takes longer than results-hungry prospect hounds would like.
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