One of the most interesting tidbits to come out of La Velle's live chat on Wednesday over at StarTribune.com was the revelation that the Twins asked Trevor Plouffe to play winter ball this year and Plouffe declined.
My initial reaction was one of puzzlement. On Twitter, I said that Plouffe's decision was "hard to understand." After all, 2012 is shaping up to be a make-or-break season for the young infielder, at least with this organization. He's 25, he's spent four years in Triple-A and he'll be out of options next season.
If Plouffe can't take advantage of the ample opportunity that will be laid in front of him, with multiple starting spots figuring to be up for grabs, the Twins could hardly be blamed for moving on. Why wouldn't the former first-round pick head south and sharpen his skills over the offseason, perhaps accruing valuable experience at some different positions?
Later on Wednesday night, things came into focus for me upon learning that former Twins catcher Wilson Ramos was abducted from his home in Venezuela, which is where the winter league takes place. Armed gunmen entered Ramos' home, snatched him away from his family and took him away in an SUV. Now, authorities are scrambling to track down the 24-year-old, who just completed a solid rookie campaign with the Nationals.
This is pretty horrifying stuff. It's not the first time a professional athlete has been targeted for ransom in what has become an increasingly dangerous climate in Venezuela. Given this grave situation, I feel silly for even questioning someone's decision to stay out of that region.
At this point, all we can do is hope and pray for Ramos' safe return, while feeling glad that Plouffe opted to stay home for the winter. I would imagine that many players will make the same choice going forward.
Showing posts with label ramos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ramos. Show all posts
Friday, November 11, 2011
Monday, August 02, 2010
Capps-Sized?
I've been in Denver for the past four days, so I had to track this season's trade deadline drama from afar. That means I had only an outside glimpse of the local reactions to the Twins' big move, which involved sending prized catching prospect Wilson Ramos to the Nationals in exchange for reliever Matt Capps.
Amongst my like-minded and esteemed blogging brethren, the response to the trade was overwhelmingly negative. Gleeman hated it. Same for the Geek. Parker ripped it. Even mild-mannered Seth was critical of the move. Sentiment ranged from disappointment to flat-out disgust.
Yet, in spite of all the many reasonable arguments that I read deriding the trade, I just couldn't bring myself to truly dislike it. I think the widespread backlash to this deal is extremely hyperbolic. The Twins shored up an area that could potentially become problematic over the final two months of the season, and in order to do so they had to part with an asset. The value of that asset is the subject of some debate.
If there's one thing this swap tells me, it's that Wilson Ramos was being wildly overrated as a prospect by the vast majority of Twins fans. In all honesty, this doesn't surprise me, because it's something I had been thinking about more and more over the past few weeks. Ramos is a nice prospect, to be sure, but would any team really be willing to part with an established star player for a guy who is getting utterly dominated at Triple-A?
Granted, Ramos is only 22 years old and he's taking his first stab at the highest level of the minors. But he hasn't hit this year. After narrowly missing a spot on the Twins roster out of spring training, Ramos got his season off to a terrible start in Rochester and he hasn't shown a whole lot of improvement over the course of the season. This is a fact that far too many people seemed content to overlook, enamored with his shiny scouting reports and impressive build.
For all his power potential, Ramos has hit only five home runs this season. In fact, he's only hit 36 of them in five minor-league seasons. During that span, he's also drawn only 86 walks. Undoubtedly, a large part of the reason that Ramos' innate power has not manifested in games relates to his terrible plate discipline, an issue that has been clearly present this year and has helped contribute to a .241 average and a ghastly .277 on-base percentage.
Ramos' name arose in trade rumors opposite Cliff Lee, Dan Haren and other prominent stars. There is little doubt that the Twins tried heavily to shop their top catching prospect, since moving Ramos was all but a foregone conclusion. I wrote as much back in early May, when the Ramos hype machine was at its peak in the aftermath of a spectacular major-league debut. While there's no denying that the Venezuelan catcher has the potential to become a very good big-league contributor, rebuilding teams like the Mariners and Diamondbacks don't want to trade away their top trade piece for a player who is as much of a gamble as he is.
Jesus Montero, whom the Yankees reportedly used to outbid the Twins for Lee (though they themselves were subsequently outbid by the Rangers and Justin Smoak), currently owns an .809 OPS in Triple-A. Last year, he posted a .951 OPS between Single-A and Double-A. Ramos, whose OPS sits at .619 this season, hasn't posted a figure above .783 in a full season (although he did put up an .835 OPS in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign) and his career mark sits at .757. He's been young for every level, which is why Ramos is rightfully regarded as a very good prospect, but there are holes in the his swing that the kid simply hasn't been able to figure out. Montero is highly regarded not only because of his talent and youth -- he's almost two years younger than Ramos -- but also because he's translated his skills into impressive on-field results. That's what teams want in a big deadline deal. It's what Ramos doesn't have.
Ramos would only languish in the Twins' organization, whether being held in Triple-A in the hopes that improved performance would boost his stagnating trade value or being used as Joe Mauer's major-league back-up. The Twins had to trade their top catching prospect because they are making their push right now, with a championship-caliber roster assembled. After dangling Ramos all around in the weeks leading up to the deadline, Capps was the player that Bill Smith judged to be an appropriate value for Ramos. I don't doubt that Smith tried to turn Ramos into a better player than Capps, I just don't think he could.
Without question, the addition of Capps improves the Twins' bullpen. He's a better reliever than Jon Rauch, whom he'll be replacing at the back end. Rauch has performed admirably this year, converting 21 of 25 save opportunities while posting a 3.05 ERA. But he'd shown weakness in recent weeks, with his stellar control display early in the season trending back toward his mediocre career norm, and a 5.40 ERA and .361 opponents' batting average in July were doing nothing to inspire the Twins' confidence in their interim closer. This team has World Series aspirations and they wanted a more legitimate option taking care of the ninth inning.
Capps might be nine inches shorter than Rauch, but he is nonetheless an imposing presence on the mound. Weighing in at 245 lbs, the right-hander hurls a fastball that averages about 94 mph, several ticks faster than Rauch's offering. Whereas Rauch, who is four years Capps' senior, owns a relatively unimpressive 3.73 career ERA and 1.24 WHIP, Capps' career marks stand at 3.45 and and 1.19 in those categories, and this in spite of a down year in 2009 that has all the signs of a fluke. Capps possesses elite command, misses more bats and deserves more trust in high-leverage situations.
His addition also has a positive ripple effect on the Twins' bullpen. It pushes Rauch down into a set-up role he's better suited for, and eliminates Nick Blackburn -- who was of little use as a relief arm -- from occupying a roster spot. The Twins' once teetering bullpen now has the looks of a solid strength. Its right-handed options (Capps, Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Anthony Slama) are all well above average and the Jose Mijares/Ron Mahay combo stands as a fine defense against lefties. Perhaps most importantly, Capps is under team control for next season, which will make the looming free agent departures of Rauch and Guerrier far more palatable as Joe Nathan attempts his comeback from Tommy John surgery.
You'll notice I've gone through this entire post defending the trade without referring to two hot phrases that often pop up in tirades against the acquisition of Capps: his status as an established closer and his standing as a National League All-Star. To be clear, I don't doubt that both of these factors caused the Twins to overvalue Capps to some degree. But the front office is hardly delusional for thinking he makes their bullpen better, and with the rotation seemingly rounding into shape while the offense continues to churn out runs, the relief corps looked to be the only aspect of this team deserving of a significant external upgrade.
The Twins might have overpaid for an asset in Capps. But they didn't overpay to the degree that a lot of people seem to think, and in my opinion the organization should be lauded for making a bold move in their push to bring home a World Series title in their first season at Target Field. Ramos might turn into a very good player and he might not, but whatever his outcome it wasn't going to be realized as a Minnesota Twin. He had no future here with Mauer entrenched, and Smith moved his valued trade piece for what he could to give a little additional help to the excellent roster he's assembled this year for the stretch run. The Twins made a play for now -- how often have we been able to say that so confidently in the past? We haven't seen this type of aggression before and I personally like it.
The Twins are building steam and have won eight straight. With Capps added to the roster, a bullpen meltdown becomes less of a threat to derail their momentum as they ease back into a more difficult stretch of the schedule. By the time the playoffs roll around this year and onward into 2011, I anticipate that people will be happy Capps is around. I don't think they'll miss Ramos.
* I do realize, by the way, that I tweeted only a couple days before the trade that I wouldn't deal Ramos for Capps. Call it a change of heart. After looking at all the facts, I just can't criticize the Twins for making this move, even if it doesn't initially strike me as a great deal.
Amongst my like-minded and esteemed blogging brethren, the response to the trade was overwhelmingly negative. Gleeman hated it. Same for the Geek. Parker ripped it. Even mild-mannered Seth was critical of the move. Sentiment ranged from disappointment to flat-out disgust.
Yet, in spite of all the many reasonable arguments that I read deriding the trade, I just couldn't bring myself to truly dislike it. I think the widespread backlash to this deal is extremely hyperbolic. The Twins shored up an area that could potentially become problematic over the final two months of the season, and in order to do so they had to part with an asset. The value of that asset is the subject of some debate.
If there's one thing this swap tells me, it's that Wilson Ramos was being wildly overrated as a prospect by the vast majority of Twins fans. In all honesty, this doesn't surprise me, because it's something I had been thinking about more and more over the past few weeks. Ramos is a nice prospect, to be sure, but would any team really be willing to part with an established star player for a guy who is getting utterly dominated at Triple-A?
Granted, Ramos is only 22 years old and he's taking his first stab at the highest level of the minors. But he hasn't hit this year. After narrowly missing a spot on the Twins roster out of spring training, Ramos got his season off to a terrible start in Rochester and he hasn't shown a whole lot of improvement over the course of the season. This is a fact that far too many people seemed content to overlook, enamored with his shiny scouting reports and impressive build.
For all his power potential, Ramos has hit only five home runs this season. In fact, he's only hit 36 of them in five minor-league seasons. During that span, he's also drawn only 86 walks. Undoubtedly, a large part of the reason that Ramos' innate power has not manifested in games relates to his terrible plate discipline, an issue that has been clearly present this year and has helped contribute to a .241 average and a ghastly .277 on-base percentage.
Ramos' name arose in trade rumors opposite Cliff Lee, Dan Haren and other prominent stars. There is little doubt that the Twins tried heavily to shop their top catching prospect, since moving Ramos was all but a foregone conclusion. I wrote as much back in early May, when the Ramos hype machine was at its peak in the aftermath of a spectacular major-league debut. While there's no denying that the Venezuelan catcher has the potential to become a very good big-league contributor, rebuilding teams like the Mariners and Diamondbacks don't want to trade away their top trade piece for a player who is as much of a gamble as he is.
Jesus Montero, whom the Yankees reportedly used to outbid the Twins for Lee (though they themselves were subsequently outbid by the Rangers and Justin Smoak), currently owns an .809 OPS in Triple-A. Last year, he posted a .951 OPS between Single-A and Double-A. Ramos, whose OPS sits at .619 this season, hasn't posted a figure above .783 in a full season (although he did put up an .835 OPS in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign) and his career mark sits at .757. He's been young for every level, which is why Ramos is rightfully regarded as a very good prospect, but there are holes in the his swing that the kid simply hasn't been able to figure out. Montero is highly regarded not only because of his talent and youth -- he's almost two years younger than Ramos -- but also because he's translated his skills into impressive on-field results. That's what teams want in a big deadline deal. It's what Ramos doesn't have.
Ramos would only languish in the Twins' organization, whether being held in Triple-A in the hopes that improved performance would boost his stagnating trade value or being used as Joe Mauer's major-league back-up. The Twins had to trade their top catching prospect because they are making their push right now, with a championship-caliber roster assembled. After dangling Ramos all around in the weeks leading up to the deadline, Capps was the player that Bill Smith judged to be an appropriate value for Ramos. I don't doubt that Smith tried to turn Ramos into a better player than Capps, I just don't think he could.
Without question, the addition of Capps improves the Twins' bullpen. He's a better reliever than Jon Rauch, whom he'll be replacing at the back end. Rauch has performed admirably this year, converting 21 of 25 save opportunities while posting a 3.05 ERA. But he'd shown weakness in recent weeks, with his stellar control display early in the season trending back toward his mediocre career norm, and a 5.40 ERA and .361 opponents' batting average in July were doing nothing to inspire the Twins' confidence in their interim closer. This team has World Series aspirations and they wanted a more legitimate option taking care of the ninth inning.
Capps might be nine inches shorter than Rauch, but he is nonetheless an imposing presence on the mound. Weighing in at 245 lbs, the right-hander hurls a fastball that averages about 94 mph, several ticks faster than Rauch's offering. Whereas Rauch, who is four years Capps' senior, owns a relatively unimpressive 3.73 career ERA and 1.24 WHIP, Capps' career marks stand at 3.45 and and 1.19 in those categories, and this in spite of a down year in 2009 that has all the signs of a fluke. Capps possesses elite command, misses more bats and deserves more trust in high-leverage situations.
His addition also has a positive ripple effect on the Twins' bullpen. It pushes Rauch down into a set-up role he's better suited for, and eliminates Nick Blackburn -- who was of little use as a relief arm -- from occupying a roster spot. The Twins' once teetering bullpen now has the looks of a solid strength. Its right-handed options (Capps, Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Anthony Slama) are all well above average and the Jose Mijares/Ron Mahay combo stands as a fine defense against lefties. Perhaps most importantly, Capps is under team control for next season, which will make the looming free agent departures of Rauch and Guerrier far more palatable as Joe Nathan attempts his comeback from Tommy John surgery.
You'll notice I've gone through this entire post defending the trade without referring to two hot phrases that often pop up in tirades against the acquisition of Capps: his status as an established closer and his standing as a National League All-Star. To be clear, I don't doubt that both of these factors caused the Twins to overvalue Capps to some degree. But the front office is hardly delusional for thinking he makes their bullpen better, and with the rotation seemingly rounding into shape while the offense continues to churn out runs, the relief corps looked to be the only aspect of this team deserving of a significant external upgrade.
The Twins might have overpaid for an asset in Capps. But they didn't overpay to the degree that a lot of people seem to think, and in my opinion the organization should be lauded for making a bold move in their push to bring home a World Series title in their first season at Target Field. Ramos might turn into a very good player and he might not, but whatever his outcome it wasn't going to be realized as a Minnesota Twin. He had no future here with Mauer entrenched, and Smith moved his valued trade piece for what he could to give a little additional help to the excellent roster he's assembled this year for the stretch run. The Twins made a play for now -- how often have we been able to say that so confidently in the past? We haven't seen this type of aggression before and I personally like it.
The Twins are building steam and have won eight straight. With Capps added to the roster, a bullpen meltdown becomes less of a threat to derail their momentum as they ease back into a more difficult stretch of the schedule. By the time the playoffs roll around this year and onward into 2011, I anticipate that people will be happy Capps is around. I don't think they'll miss Ramos.
* I do realize, by the way, that I tweeted only a couple days before the trade that I wouldn't deal Ramos for Capps. Call it a change of heart. After looking at all the facts, I just can't criticize the Twins for making this move, even if it doesn't initially strike me as a great deal.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Friday Notes
* With three members of the Twins' rotation struggling to consistently deliver quality performances, the team would undoubtedly like to add any of these three starters to the mix:
Pitcher A: 57.2 IP, 6-2, 3.28 ERA, 51/9 K/BB, .247 BAA
Pitcher B: 53.1 IP, 5-3, 3.54 ERA, 43/11 K/BB, .257 BAA
Pitcher C: 55.2 IP, 5-1, 3.72 ERA, 21/11 K/BB, .278 BAA
The thing is, all three of those pitchers are already in the Twins rotation. Those are the home splits for Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn. The problem is that all three hurlers have been absolutely terrible on the road. See for yourself:
Baker: 51.1 IP, 1-6, 6.66 ERA, 44/10 K/BB, .321 BAA
Slowey: 43.2 IP, 3-2, 5.98 ERA, 25/8 K/BB, .333 BAA
Blackburn: 41.1 IP, 2-6, 10.02 ERA, 13/16 K/BB, .398 BAA
Those numbers for Blackburn are especially egregious. Opponents have tagged him for a 1.164 OPS while hitting notching as many home runs (13) as strikeouts in nine starts.
The fact that all three of these pitchers are performing about as well as anyone could possibly expect when throwing at home suggests that whatever problems they're facing this season are largely mental. Sure, Target Field is a spacious and pitcher-friendly park, but that doesn't come close to explaining the enormous disparity in performance for all three of these guys. And if injuries were contributing to their struggles, why would those problems seemingly disappear when they're pitching at home?
The impetus is on Baker, Slowey, Blacbkurn and the Twins' coaching staff to figure out what is causing these issues on the road. These guys are now experienced major-league pitchers; for them to be unraveling in opposing ballparks again and again like this is beyond unacceptable.
* One pitcher you don't need to worry about is Francisco Liriano. Sure, he got roughed up in his last start before the break and neither his 6-7 record nor his 3.86 ERA scream "elite ace," but Liriano's performance this season has been much better than those numbers indicate.
In 107 1/3 innings, Liriano has struck out 117 batters while issuing 30 walks. He has allowed only two home runs. He has induced grounders on over 50 percent of balls in play; only 10 American League pitchers have a higher rate.
In other words, Liriano has been flat-out fantastic when it comes to factors that are under his direct control. That's why his FIP (a fielding independent metric) registers at 2.18, the best mark in the majors. The problem is that when batters are making contact, an inordinate number of balls are falling in for hits, especially over the past couple weeks. Despite the outstanding strikeout rate, Liriano has allowed about a hit per inning thanks to an inflated .361 batting average on balls in play. Compare that figure to the big-league average (.300), Liriano's career average (.318) or even Liriano's mark from last year (.324) and you can see that this is clearly a far higher BABIP than anyone should reasonably expect from the hard-throwing lefty. It's the result of bad luck and substandard fielding behind him.
With J.J. Hardy back in the mix and bad luck likely to even out, I fully expect Liriano to be one of the American League's best pitchers during the second half. In spite of what his record and ERA suggest, he already has been up to this point.
* Speaking of bad luck, lingering effects from Justin Morneau's concussion a couple weeks ago have landed the first baseman on the disabled list, forcing him to miss this weekend's key series against the division-leading White Sox and potentially setting the stage for yet another disappointing second half. I'm hopeful that Morneau can shake off his ailment and return to the outstanding level of production he provided throughout the first half, but we've been through this song and dance before and it's seemingly never ended well.
* Remember back in spring training when a faction of Twins fans was claiming that Wilson Ramos absolutely needed to be on the roster, drawing regular playing time while splitting his workload at catcher and DH? How silly that looks now. Ramos currently possesses a .252 on-base percentage in Triple-A and has hit only four home runs all year. His .562 OPS in Rochester barely edges Drew Butera's .560 mark there last year.
Ramos remains a very strong prospect and by no means am I saying that these struggles will prevent him from eventually turning into a very nice hitter. But maybe people will think twice before calling the Twins' front office morons for sending a 22-year-old with only 54 games of experience above Single-A back to the minors despite his strong performances in winter ball and spring training. Ramos clearly was not ready to be playing in the majors in April, nor is he now.
* Finally, if you haven't picked up a copy of the TwinsCentric 2010 Trade Deadline Primer yet, to me a favor and at least check out the free quarterbook sample here to see all it has to offer. A lot of work from a lot of talented people went into this sucker and we're pretty proud of it. I'm quite sure you'll find it to be an indispensable reference over the next couple weeks.
Pitcher A: 57.2 IP, 6-2, 3.28 ERA, 51/9 K/BB, .247 BAA
Pitcher B: 53.1 IP, 5-3, 3.54 ERA, 43/11 K/BB, .257 BAA
Pitcher C: 55.2 IP, 5-1, 3.72 ERA, 21/11 K/BB, .278 BAA
The thing is, all three of those pitchers are already in the Twins rotation. Those are the home splits for Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn. The problem is that all three hurlers have been absolutely terrible on the road. See for yourself:
Baker: 51.1 IP, 1-6, 6.66 ERA, 44/10 K/BB, .321 BAA
Slowey: 43.2 IP, 3-2, 5.98 ERA, 25/8 K/BB, .333 BAA
Blackburn: 41.1 IP, 2-6, 10.02 ERA, 13/16 K/BB, .398 BAA
Those numbers for Blackburn are especially egregious. Opponents have tagged him for a 1.164 OPS while hitting notching as many home runs (13) as strikeouts in nine starts.
The fact that all three of these pitchers are performing about as well as anyone could possibly expect when throwing at home suggests that whatever problems they're facing this season are largely mental. Sure, Target Field is a spacious and pitcher-friendly park, but that doesn't come close to explaining the enormous disparity in performance for all three of these guys. And if injuries were contributing to their struggles, why would those problems seemingly disappear when they're pitching at home?
The impetus is on Baker, Slowey, Blacbkurn and the Twins' coaching staff to figure out what is causing these issues on the road. These guys are now experienced major-league pitchers; for them to be unraveling in opposing ballparks again and again like this is beyond unacceptable.
* One pitcher you don't need to worry about is Francisco Liriano. Sure, he got roughed up in his last start before the break and neither his 6-7 record nor his 3.86 ERA scream "elite ace," but Liriano's performance this season has been much better than those numbers indicate.
In 107 1/3 innings, Liriano has struck out 117 batters while issuing 30 walks. He has allowed only two home runs. He has induced grounders on over 50 percent of balls in play; only 10 American League pitchers have a higher rate.
In other words, Liriano has been flat-out fantastic when it comes to factors that are under his direct control. That's why his FIP (a fielding independent metric) registers at 2.18, the best mark in the majors. The problem is that when batters are making contact, an inordinate number of balls are falling in for hits, especially over the past couple weeks. Despite the outstanding strikeout rate, Liriano has allowed about a hit per inning thanks to an inflated .361 batting average on balls in play. Compare that figure to the big-league average (.300), Liriano's career average (.318) or even Liriano's mark from last year (.324) and you can see that this is clearly a far higher BABIP than anyone should reasonably expect from the hard-throwing lefty. It's the result of bad luck and substandard fielding behind him.
With J.J. Hardy back in the mix and bad luck likely to even out, I fully expect Liriano to be one of the American League's best pitchers during the second half. In spite of what his record and ERA suggest, he already has been up to this point.
* Speaking of bad luck, lingering effects from Justin Morneau's concussion a couple weeks ago have landed the first baseman on the disabled list, forcing him to miss this weekend's key series against the division-leading White Sox and potentially setting the stage for yet another disappointing second half. I'm hopeful that Morneau can shake off his ailment and return to the outstanding level of production he provided throughout the first half, but we've been through this song and dance before and it's seemingly never ended well.
* Remember back in spring training when a faction of Twins fans was claiming that Wilson Ramos absolutely needed to be on the roster, drawing regular playing time while splitting his workload at catcher and DH? How silly that looks now. Ramos currently possesses a .252 on-base percentage in Triple-A and has hit only four home runs all year. His .562 OPS in Rochester barely edges Drew Butera's .560 mark there last year.
Ramos remains a very strong prospect and by no means am I saying that these struggles will prevent him from eventually turning into a very nice hitter. But maybe people will think twice before calling the Twins' front office morons for sending a 22-year-old with only 54 games of experience above Single-A back to the minors despite his strong performances in winter ball and spring training. Ramos clearly was not ready to be playing in the majors in April, nor is he now.
* Finally, if you haven't picked up a copy of the TwinsCentric 2010 Trade Deadline Primer yet, to me a favor and at least check out the free quarterbook sample here to see all it has to offer. A lot of work from a lot of talented people went into this sucker and we're pretty proud of it. I'm quite sure you'll find it to be an indispensable reference over the next couple weeks.
Thursday, May 06, 2010
Responding to Ramos Critiques
My post yesterday titled "Trading Wilson Ramos is a No-Brainer" garnered mixed reactions. Some said I was spot-on in my analysis while others suggested that the only "no-brainer" was me.
Today, I'd like to respond to a few of the pervasive critiques of my argument in an effort to clarify my position and dispel some myths.
1. Ramos should stay because his bat will be an asset anywhere.
This seems to be a classic case of fans vastly overrating their own prospects. Yes, Ramos has a big frame and a nice swing, but there is little in the way of tangible evidence to suggest that he'll hit enough to be an asset at first base or DH, which are the only places he'd realistically be able to fill in outside of catcher.
Last year the average AL designated hitter posted a .780 OPS and the average AL first baseman posted an .832 OPS. Throughout his minor-league career, Ramos has accumulated a .777 OPS and he hasn't topped .800 at any level (with the exception of a short rehab stint in rookie ball). Now, granted, he's been young for every level and has the frame to evolve as a hitter as he reaches hi mid-20s, but one cannot simply assume he's going to come up to the majors and become a vastly better hitter, particularly considering that he has been nagged by ever-present plate discipline issues throughout his career.
In arguing with my thesis, many people said something to the effect of, "I'll trust the professional scouting reports over your opinion." That's fine, but scouts can get it wrong. I don't see how one can reasonably assume that Ramos' big-league hitting line -- particularly over his first several years as he adjusts to the league -- will be any higher than his .288/.336/.441 career line in the minors. That'd be good production for a catcher -- where American Leaguers averaged just a .715 OPS last year -- but it would be thoroughly mediocre for a DH or first baseman and would be minimizing Ramos' value as an asset.
2. The Twins need Ramos as insurance to protect their expensive investment in Mauer.
Many have argued that Ramos should be kept around so that the Twins will be able to rest Mauer more frequently and will have an able player to fill in should he go down with an injury. Have people completely forgotten that the organization already has a fine in-house option in the form of Jose Morales?
Certainly, Morales is not as great a hitter as his .328 average and .394 on-base percentage in limited MLB playing time would suggest, but the kid is almost an ideal backup catcher, with improving defensive skills and enough of a bat that he won't kill you if he has to fill in for a period of time. The 27-year-old switch-hitter is also cheap and controllable for many years. He's hurt right now, but once he's healed, Morales will return to his role as an above-average backup catcher, a role he can ably fill for the next several years.
3. Ramos enables the Twins to move Mauer to third base, where he'll stay healthier.
I will say that this is the one argument that has the most traction. Mauer's bat would play at third base and he's probably athletic enough to make the switch and remain a capable defender. Plus, outside of Danny Valencia, whom the organization seems to have -- at best -- moderate faith in as a long-term option, the organization is very weak at third base.
But, to reiterate, Mauer is heading toward a legacy as one of the best catchers in baseball history. He's an excellent defender behind the plate and his offensive output from a typically weak position is a big part of what makes him the trascendent talent that he is. Mauer would still probably be a great player as a third baseman, but his value would greatly decrease, particularly in the very plausible scenario that his defensive skills don't transfer over.
I think Mauer will shift away from catcher at some point, but not any time particularly soon. There is simply no precedent (that I can think of) for a team moving a Gold Glove catcher away from his natural position this early in his career.
4. Bill Smith traded Matt Garza for Delmon Young. I don't trust him.
People continue to fall back on the failed Garza/Young swap or the Johan Santana trade as evidence that Smith is too incompetent to bring back a worthy haul for the Twins' young catching prospect. Cut the guy some slack, folks. It was his first year on the job and -- in the case of the Santana trade -- he was leveraged to the point that he was in almost a no-win situation. The Mets were essentially bidding against themselves.
That won't be the case with Ramos. As a young power-hitting catcher with advanced defensive skills, Ramos is an extremely valuable asset in a league where many teams lack a legitimate long-term answer behind the plate. Given that Ramos will be cheap for the next six years, there's no big contract to stop small-market teams from bidding on him. If Smith makes Ramos' availability known, he'll be getting plenty of calls and should have no trouble bringing back an impressive haul.
Yes, the Young trade was a dud. But Young was more of a "can't-miss prospect" than Ramos is an he has done little since coming over to the Twins, while that deal has yielded a frontline starting pitcher and everday shortstop for the Rays. Wouldn't it be nice if Smith could follow a similar path in moving Ramos? Since he's coming off such a tremendous offseason, I'm inclined to give the Twins' GM the benefit of the doubt and overlook his lapses from three years ago.
Today, I'd like to respond to a few of the pervasive critiques of my argument in an effort to clarify my position and dispel some myths.
1. Ramos should stay because his bat will be an asset anywhere.
This seems to be a classic case of fans vastly overrating their own prospects. Yes, Ramos has a big frame and a nice swing, but there is little in the way of tangible evidence to suggest that he'll hit enough to be an asset at first base or DH, which are the only places he'd realistically be able to fill in outside of catcher.
Last year the average AL designated hitter posted a .780 OPS and the average AL first baseman posted an .832 OPS. Throughout his minor-league career, Ramos has accumulated a .777 OPS and he hasn't topped .800 at any level (with the exception of a short rehab stint in rookie ball). Now, granted, he's been young for every level and has the frame to evolve as a hitter as he reaches hi mid-20s, but one cannot simply assume he's going to come up to the majors and become a vastly better hitter, particularly considering that he has been nagged by ever-present plate discipline issues throughout his career.
In arguing with my thesis, many people said something to the effect of, "I'll trust the professional scouting reports over your opinion." That's fine, but scouts can get it wrong. I don't see how one can reasonably assume that Ramos' big-league hitting line -- particularly over his first several years as he adjusts to the league -- will be any higher than his .288/.336/.441 career line in the minors. That'd be good production for a catcher -- where American Leaguers averaged just a .715 OPS last year -- but it would be thoroughly mediocre for a DH or first baseman and would be minimizing Ramos' value as an asset.
2. The Twins need Ramos as insurance to protect their expensive investment in Mauer.
Many have argued that Ramos should be kept around so that the Twins will be able to rest Mauer more frequently and will have an able player to fill in should he go down with an injury. Have people completely forgotten that the organization already has a fine in-house option in the form of Jose Morales?
Certainly, Morales is not as great a hitter as his .328 average and .394 on-base percentage in limited MLB playing time would suggest, but the kid is almost an ideal backup catcher, with improving defensive skills and enough of a bat that he won't kill you if he has to fill in for a period of time. The 27-year-old switch-hitter is also cheap and controllable for many years. He's hurt right now, but once he's healed, Morales will return to his role as an above-average backup catcher, a role he can ably fill for the next several years.
3. Ramos enables the Twins to move Mauer to third base, where he'll stay healthier.
I will say that this is the one argument that has the most traction. Mauer's bat would play at third base and he's probably athletic enough to make the switch and remain a capable defender. Plus, outside of Danny Valencia, whom the organization seems to have -- at best -- moderate faith in as a long-term option, the organization is very weak at third base.
But, to reiterate, Mauer is heading toward a legacy as one of the best catchers in baseball history. He's an excellent defender behind the plate and his offensive output from a typically weak position is a big part of what makes him the trascendent talent that he is. Mauer would still probably be a great player as a third baseman, but his value would greatly decrease, particularly in the very plausible scenario that his defensive skills don't transfer over.
I think Mauer will shift away from catcher at some point, but not any time particularly soon. There is simply no precedent (that I can think of) for a team moving a Gold Glove catcher away from his natural position this early in his career.
4. Bill Smith traded Matt Garza for Delmon Young. I don't trust him.
People continue to fall back on the failed Garza/Young swap or the Johan Santana trade as evidence that Smith is too incompetent to bring back a worthy haul for the Twins' young catching prospect. Cut the guy some slack, folks. It was his first year on the job and -- in the case of the Santana trade -- he was leveraged to the point that he was in almost a no-win situation. The Mets were essentially bidding against themselves.
That won't be the case with Ramos. As a young power-hitting catcher with advanced defensive skills, Ramos is an extremely valuable asset in a league where many teams lack a legitimate long-term answer behind the plate. Given that Ramos will be cheap for the next six years, there's no big contract to stop small-market teams from bidding on him. If Smith makes Ramos' availability known, he'll be getting plenty of calls and should have no trouble bringing back an impressive haul.
Yes, the Young trade was a dud. But Young was more of a "can't-miss prospect" than Ramos is an he has done little since coming over to the Twins, while that deal has yielded a frontline starting pitcher and everday shortstop for the Rays. Wouldn't it be nice if Smith could follow a similar path in moving Ramos? Since he's coming off such a tremendous offseason, I'm inclined to give the Twins' GM the benefit of the doubt and overlook his lapses from three years ago.
Wednesday, May 05, 2010
Trading Wilson Ramos is a No-Brainer
Wilson Ramos has been garnering a lot of excitement around these parts lately. After working his way up to the top of most prospect lists with his outstanding work in the minors over the past couple years (he ranked second on my preseason list), Ramos was so impressive in spring training this year that he tempted the team to bring him north as Joe Mauer's backup despite his being just 22 and having only 54 games of experience above the Single-A level.
The early success has helped the Twins offense keep churning in Mauer's absence and has gotten many local fans downright giddy. Already I've seen many people pondering ways that Ramos can stick long-term with a team that already employs the game's best catcher.
I've seen many folks build hypothetical scenarios in which Mauer and Ramos can coexist on the roster. On the TwinsCentric blog yesterday, Seth Stohs laid out a plan that would have Ramos catching about 50 times a year and serving as designated hitter much of the time when not behind the plate. Others have proposed similar part-time playing alignments, while some have even suggested that the Twins ultimately make room for the young slugger by shifting Mauer -- or even Ramos -- to third base.
First, let's just throw out the idea of Ramos moving to third base. That's not going to happen. Because it can be discussed as a realistic option for Mauer, many people seem to have the perception that any catcher can easily be shifted to third base. That's not the case. With his big frame and strong arm, Ramos is perfectly built to catch, but he's slower than molasses, lacking the quickness and athleticism needed to man the hot corner. Throughout his minor-league career, Ramos has played catcher almost exclusively despite the Twins having Mauer entrenched. There's a reason for that: Catcher is Ramos' natural position and it's not going to change.
It's for that same reason that giving Ramos significant time at designated hitter, as Seth suggested, is not a legitimate option. Nor is shifting him to first base, which is the only other defensive position he'd likely be able to handle well. Ramos hits very well for a catcher but there's no reason to think he's a strong enough hitter to be an asset at first base or DH.
Ramos is valuable because he's a great young defensive catcher with pop. Those are hard to find around the league. But unfortunately the Twins are set at catcher for the foreseeable future and -- as I've outlined above -- the organization will be lessening the value of a great asset if they try to fool around with switching Ramos' position.
It's rare that a prospect as promising as Ramos is expendable, but for the Twins, he is. He has the look of a guy who should be catching full-time in this league and the Twins already have their catcher entrenched until Ramos is past 30.
Simply put, Ramos is more valuable to most other teams around the league than he is to the Twins. For that reason, trading him -- whether at the deadline this year or after the season -- is essentially a no-brainer.
Simply put, Ramos is more valuable to most other teams around the league than he is to the Twins. For that reason, trading him -- whether at the deadline this year or after the season -- is essentially a no-brainer.
Monday, May 03, 2010
Catching Up
Well, it was an interesting weekend as far as the Twins' catcher position is concerned.
On Friday night, Joe Mauer started but bruised his heel while running into first base.
The following night, Drew Butera got the nod at catcher while Mauer was thought to be too sore to catch but available in an emergency. We later learned that Mauer was probably not actually available at all since Butera was allowed to hit in several key situations late in a highly-contested game, going 0-for-5 on the night and helping cripple the Twins' chances when he grounded into a double-play with the bases loaded and the game tied in the 11th inning.
On Sunday, we learned that Mauer's injury was without question more serious than the team initially let on, as Wilson Ramos was called up to serve as interim catcher while Butera returned to his rightful spot on the bench. The well-built Ramos wasted no time making an impression, collecting four hits in his major-league debut and flashing his outstanding power by driving liners hard all over the field.
It was fun to see one of the very best prospects in the Twins system make such an immediate impact, but of course Ramos is no Mauer and we'll start to see that as he gets more exposure to big-league pitching. While he has about as much raw power as anyone in the organization, Ramos has very poor plate discipline, which helps explain why he was hitting .179 with a .214 OBP in Rochester prior to his call-up. He is undoubtedly a significant upgrade over Butera while Mauer is out, particularly because he appears to be a better defender, but the 22-year-old Ramos will go through his own growing pains. Count on it.
For the time being, though, enjoy this early glimpse of one of the very best catching prospects in all of baseball. Ramos is quickly showing the baseball world just why he carries that distinction.
On Friday night, Joe Mauer started but bruised his heel while running into first base.
The following night, Drew Butera got the nod at catcher while Mauer was thought to be too sore to catch but available in an emergency. We later learned that Mauer was probably not actually available at all since Butera was allowed to hit in several key situations late in a highly-contested game, going 0-for-5 on the night and helping cripple the Twins' chances when he grounded into a double-play with the bases loaded and the game tied in the 11th inning.
On Sunday, we learned that Mauer's injury was without question more serious than the team initially let on, as Wilson Ramos was called up to serve as interim catcher while Butera returned to his rightful spot on the bench. The well-built Ramos wasted no time making an impression, collecting four hits in his major-league debut and flashing his outstanding power by driving liners hard all over the field.
It was fun to see one of the very best prospects in the Twins system make such an immediate impact, but of course Ramos is no Mauer and we'll start to see that as he gets more exposure to big-league pitching. While he has about as much raw power as anyone in the organization, Ramos has very poor plate discipline, which helps explain why he was hitting .179 with a .214 OBP in Rochester prior to his call-up. He is undoubtedly a significant upgrade over Butera while Mauer is out, particularly because he appears to be a better defender, but the 22-year-old Ramos will go through his own growing pains. Count on it.
For the time being, though, enjoy this early glimpse of one of the very best catching prospects in all of baseball. Ramos is quickly showing the baseball world just why he carries that distinction.
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