On Slowey, Twins Sold Too Low Once Again

The Twins have often been criticized in recent years for the paltry returns they've gotten back when trading away players. We've seen Wilson Ramos, J.J. Hardy, Delmon Young and others flipped for questionable returns, only to quickly boost their value elsewhere. Jose Mijares was non-tendered earlier this offseason because the Twins didn't want to pay him $750,000 through arbitration, and he went on to immediately sign with the Royals for $950,000.

In my mind, the Twins front office has shown a persistent weakness in assessing the value of its own talent.

Kevin Slowey appears to be the latest example. Coming off the worst season of his pro career, Slowey was dealt to the Rockies back in December for relief prospect Daniel Turpen. Six weeks later, Colorado turned around and sent Slowey back to the AL Central, trading him to the Indians on Friday for another relief prospect, Zach Putnam.

Given that the Rockies have loaded up on back-end starters since acquiring Slowey and the Indians are now facing uncertainty in their rotation after "Fausto Carmona" was arrested in the Dominican Republic last week on charges of using a false identity, the move makes sense.

What I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around is that the Rockies were able to get a significantly superior prospect in return for Slowey, despite the fact that he hasn't done anything to raise his value since Colorado acquired him.

Let's compare Turpen and Putnam. The former is a 25-year-old who spent the 2011 season pitching in Double-A, where he tallied more walks (35) than strikeouts (33) over 59 2/3 innings while posting a 4.83 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. The latter is a year younger, but spent last season in Triple-A, where he posted a strong 68-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69 innings to go along with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Baseball America recently ranked Putnam as the 10th-best prospect in Cleveland's (albeit weak) farm system.

In short, Putnam is a solid prospect who would stand a good chance of factoring into the Twins' bullpen this year and beyond. Turpen is a stagnating minor-leaguer coming off a terrible year, and he didn't receive an invite to big-league camp. He's shuffled between four organizations in the past two years and seems like a long shot to make an eventual impact in the majors.

You can make the case that Slowey was a headache, and that his best days as a pitcher are behind him, and that the Twins won't regret letting him go. But this isn't about Slowey. This is about properly valuing assets and taking advantage of opportunities to infuse the organization with talent -- an opportunity that the front office, at best, failed to take full advantage of here.

Maybe Slowey had to go, but what was the rush to move him in early December? Why not wait until a more motivated buyer than Colorado came along? Perhaps in spring training when injuries pop up and needs arise, potentially leading to a better market?

When the Slowey-for-Turpen swap went down, I was surprised that no club was willing to part with more than a marginal minor-league relief arm for a 27-year-old starting pitcher with a big-league track record, a dominant minor-league résumé and a reasonable price tag. As it turns out, that wasn't the case. The Twins simply acted too hastily and once again cost themselves in the process.

Marquis for Slowey an Unexciting Swap

The Twins rounded out their rotation today, signing free agent right-hander Jason Marquis to a one-year, $3 million deal. Since Marquis essentially replaces Kevin Slowey, who was traded to the Rockies a few weeks ago and would have made about the same amount next season through arbitration, it seems appropriate to compare the two based on what they're likely to provide in 2012.

Slowey was disastrous this past season, but Marquis' 2010 campaign was almost equally catastrophic, as he posted a 6.60 ERA and 1.71 WHIP while being limited to 58 2/3 innings by injuries. He rebounded this year, putting up a mediocre 4.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while logging 132 innings over 23 starts between Washington and Arizona. That seems like a fair baseline expectation going forward.

Their career numbers aren't terribly different. Marquis' ERA in the majors sits at 4.55, Slowey 4.66. Both have been extremely hittable. Slowey owns the superior WHIP (1.29 to 1.43), thanks largely to a lower walk rate (1.4 BB/9 to 3.5), and he also boasts the higher strikeout rate (6.7 K/9 to 5.2).

Opting for a guy who misses fewer bats is disappointing in light of the strikeout shortage that I've written about a couple times this week. However, Marquis offsets his lack of whiffs with an elite ground ball rate, which stands in stark contrast to Slowey's extreme fly ball tendencies. Only six pitchers in the majors finished with a higher grounder rate than Marquis' 55.1 percent in 2011.

If he continues to put the ball in play and induce tons of grounders, Marquis will only be as good as the infielders behind him, so the gamble that the Twins took on Jamey Carroll holding up as a full-time shortstop at age 38 will be magnified.

If you asked me which guy I'd rather have on a one-year deal for $3 million next year, I'd probably opt for Slowey, if only because he's six years younger and offers greater upside. The difference isn't huge, though, and if Slowey is really the clubhouse headache he's been made out to be, this can be considered a justifiable swap at the bottom of the rotation.

Unfortunately, it does nothing to augment the top of the rotation, which will leave plenty of pressure on Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano to carry the load. Fans who were hoping for a serious upgrade to the starting corps aren't getting one here.

An Ugly Break-Up

On June 1, 2007, Kevin Slowey made his major-league debut for the Twins, pitching six innings of one-run ball in a no-decision against the Athletics. It looked to be the start of a long and fruitful career in Minnesota. As a polished, college-drafted pitcher who made up for his lack of pure stuff with precise control and a willingness to attack the strike zone, the right-hander fit right into the Twins' preferred mold.

Slowey shared many traits with Brad Radke, a local legend who had retired the previous offseason. Unfortunately, Slowey would prove to lack two qualities that endeared Radke to fans and coaches in Minnesota: durability and a willingness to put the organization before himself.

Ultimately, these two factors were likely the greatest contributors in the deterioration of a once promising relationship, which came to an end this week when the Twins traded Slowey to Colorado for a player to be named later.

Without question, 2011 was the most tumultuous season of Slowey's career. He quibbled with coaches over an assignment to the bullpen at the beginning of the year, dictated when he was willing to pitch, shuttled back and forth between the minors, spoke to reporters about a desire to be traded and then performed poorly when plugged into the big-league rotation out of absolute necessity.

In the end, Slowey logged only 59 1/3 innings for the Twins, finishing with an 0-8 record and 6.67 ERA. By the end of the season, his stock had bottomed out, making this yet another instance in which the Twins traded a talented player with his value at its absolute nadir.

Regardless of Slowey's attitude issues, that reflects poorly on the Twins. If he turned into a malcontent -- a label that has been attached to him by numerous reporters -- the club played its own part in pushing him to that point.

They left him off the postseason roster in 2010 after a 13-win season. They made a mockery of the "three-man competition" for the final two spots in the rotation this spring, forcing Slowey to prepare for the season as a starter despite the fact that it was clear they had him pegged for a bullpen job all along.

And while Slowey's attitude might have been unbearable, that doesn't really affect fans, who simply want to see a winning product. While removing an alleged clubhouse cancer might make life easier for teammates and reporters, it doesn't make the Twins a better team from a competitive standpoint.

Slowey is still only 27 years old, and for his major-league career he owns a stellar 4.70 K/BB ratio. That's better than the mark Radke retired with, and in fact it would rank among the best in the majors any given year.

Yes, Slowey's been extremely hittable at times, and homer-prone, and he's no one's idea of an ace-caliber pitcher. But the bottom line is that, if healthy, he's got the talent to be a very solid rotation staple in this league. And he'll be cheap next year. And the Twins are very, very short on depth in their starting rotation right now.

Perhaps the situation between the two sides had become untenable and a parting of ways was all but necessary. But it's a damn shame that it had to come to this point, and Slowey is not the only one deserving of blame, regardless of how he's been portrayed by certain irritated media members that have abandoned any semblance of objectivity in smearing his name on the way out (I'm looking at you, Jim Souhan).

I wish Slowey the best going forward. Smug prick or not, he's a gifted pitcher and could easily end up getting the last laugh in this sad, sad saga.

The One-Year Fallacy

I think we can all agree that 2011 was a disastrous year for the Minnesota Twins. Their win total decreased by a whopping 31 games from the season before, as nearly everything that could go wrong did.

But it was one season, and it's in the past now. It's time to look forward. That goes for the players that suffered through disappointing campaigns as well as the folks who continue to hold it against them.

Lately, I'm seeing too many fans and bloggers basing their entire perceptions of certain players on this one horrible season, and that just seems completely misguided when the game of baseball, by nature, is so volatile on a year-to-year basis.

From one season to the next, we've seen Francisco Liriano turn from erratic mess to elite frontline starter and then back again. We've seen Delmon Young go from imposing middle-of-the-lineup slugger to utter disappointment. We've seen Glen Perkins go from being unable to get hitters out in Triple-A to blossoming as one of the best late-inning relievers in the American League.

Fortunes turn quickly in this game. Careers are marked by peaks and valleys. And there are two players in particular that I see a lot of people giving up on after dramatic drop-offs in 2011: Matt Capps and Kevin Slowey.

Fans have widely lamented the notion that Capps could return in the closer role for the Twins next year. On this week's edition of the excellent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, John Bonnes went so far as to say that he'd hate a Capps signing regardless of the terms.

There are certainly reasons not to want Capps back, not the least of which being that he'd yield a high draft pick by signing elsewhere. But his merits as a late-inning reliever should not be completely condemned based solely on his struggles over the summer, when he was dealing with a forearm strain.

I'm no huge Capps fan and clearly the Twins have overpaid dearly for his services up to this point. But one ugly, injury-plagued campaign in a season that was filled with them should not cause people to ignore his lengthy track record as an effective reliever. For his career, he owns a 3.51 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and when he was healthy in 2010 he was a perfectly adequate ninth-inning man. There's little reason to believe he can't return to that level of productivity in 2012 if healthy, and at the right price this would make him a fine closing option for a team that doesn't necessarily expect to contend.

As for Slowey, the Twins have given indications that they plan on either non-tendering or trading the embattled righty. For the most part, the fan base seems to be fully on board with this course of action. It's true that he caused plenty of headaches this year and didn't record a single win even in his eight starts.

It's also true that Slowey won 35 games the previous three seasons (more than any Twins pitcher other than Scott Baker) and is a 27-year-old with a career 4.7 K/BB ratio who will cost only $3 million or so in 2012. With their shoddy rotation depth and limited funds, can the Twins afford to give up on such a player after one tumultuous year?

Those who follow the Twins, and especially those who are involved with the organization, have their own personal conceptions about these players – the inevitable result of prolonged up-close exposure. But when trying to make decisions for the betterment of the team, sometimes it's best to remove ourselves and make an objective assessment of how players like Capps and Slowey are likely to perform next year and beyond.

Contrary to popular belief, their future performances are not necessarily dictated by what happened in 2011. If that were universally the case, the Twins would have an impossibly tall task in front of them as they try to return to contention.

A Chance For Redemption

Scott Baker has been the only exception to the starting rotation's funk since the season's halfway point. His departure to the DL due to continued elbow soreness leaves behind a rather unimpressive bunch.

Here are the remaining Twins starters' marks in ERA and WHIP since the beginning of July:

Brian Duensing: 4.30 ERA / 1.33 WHIP
Francisco Liriano: 5.04 ERA / 1.66 WHIP
Carl Pavano: 5.84 ERA / 1.46 WHIP
Nick Blackburn: 7.34 ERA / 2.03 WHIP

Duensing is pacing the group with his average numbers, and from there it just deteriorates, with Blackburn -- who has amazingly allowed an average of two base runners per inning over his past seven starts -- serving as the anchor.

In other words, the bar is not set very high for Kevin Slowey.

Recalled to fill Baker's vacant rotation spot, Slowey will start in Cleveland on Sunday. I said at the beginning of the month that I felt it was "time to set this rift aside and let Slowey help the Twins again," so I'm pleased he's getting an opportunity.

And, while Twins fans might find this a sad fact, all Slowey needs to do is pitch up to his mediocre career norms (4.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP) and he's got a chance to be the team's best starter from here on out. Given the uncertainties that currently surround the health statuses of Baker and Kyle Gibson, not to mention the competence of Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn, trading Slowey might be a luxury the Twins can no longer afford.

If the embattled righty can pitch well down the stretch and rebuild bridges with his coaches and teammates, it would provide a meaningful positive development as this mercilessly awful season winds down.

Staying Put

The non-waiver trade deadline came and went yesterday without the Twins making a single move. The fan base had been on edge with Denard Span's name being thrown around by a lot of reporters, but when push came to shove nothing materialized between the Twins and Nationals.

It sounds like the main sticking point was Washington's unwillingness to include closer Drew Storen, and I'd guess they were at least a little tentative about Span's health. Either way, the Nats likely did the Twins a favor.

It probably says something about the level of faith people have in Bill Smith that the general reaction to a non-move at the deadline is relief rather than disappointment, but that's certainly where I'm at. The Span-for-Storen rumors reeked of another instance where Smith and the front office were undervaluing their own asset while vastly overvaluing the save statistic. (One report from Scott Miller of CBS Sports suggested that the Nats were pushing to include Tyler Clippard -- a reliever who is at least as good as Storen -- and the Twins balked because he's a "setup man.")

I said last week that I felt the Twins should sit tight at the deadline so I'm not upset by the lack of activity. I was pleasantly surprised to see Kevin Slowey stay put. Smith was undoubtedly dangling the right-hander, but didn't get an adequate offer and didn't cave in. For that, I give him credit.

It's time to set this rift aside and let Slowey help the Twins again. He was stellar in a Triple-A start in Rochester on Saturday night and should be starting in the majors. A spot could be created in the rotation by either shifting Brian Duensing to the bullpen (where I continue to believe he'd be a greater asset) or by bumping the struggling Nick Blackburn.

At the very least, Slowey would hopefully be able to build up some value for an offseason trade.

After dropping two of three in Oakland, the Twins enter August in fourth place and seven games back in a weak division. They still hold a faint chance at resuscitating their postseason hopes, and one could quibble with the lack of a move to add some bullpen help, but those kinds of deals can be pulled off in August -- in fact, that's where Smith has made done some of his best work.

The Slowey Saga

It would appear that Kevin Slowey's days in Minnesota are numbered.

We can glean from the article linked above that the right-hander has asked for a trade. It hardly comes as a surprise; Slowey has sulked all season about his role in the bullpen, and there are no rotation vacancies on the visible horizon.

Clearly, the Twins are fed up with the Slowey. He has rarely been available this season, overcome by a variety of ailments relating to the transition from starter to reliever. His act comes off as pouty and self-centered, leading to widespread criticism. Jim Souhan labeled him a "selfish, excuse-making malcontent" and the Twins broadcasters ripped him at length during Monday night's telecast.

Then again, Slowey also can't be blamed for wanting out. His behavior might seem selfish, but frankly it's not hard to understand what's brought him to this point. There has long been friction between player and organization.

I've repeatedly had reporters covering the team tell me that, like others who have been dealt away before him, Slowey's personality doesn't seem to mesh with the Twins' expectations. The team has done little to hide its lack of affinity.

While he had his inconsistencies last year in his return from a fairly significant wrist surgery, the righty still won 13 games and posted a 4.48 ERA. Yet, he was a healthy scratch from the Twins' playoff roster. I figured that was the last straw, predicting that he'd be traded during the offseason.

Turns out I jumped the gun. The Twins signed Carl Pavano for $16 million over the winter despite having five starters, and naturally Slowey was the odd man out despite posting a 1.69 ERA in spring training that was the best of any rotation candidate. And, even though they seemingly had their minds made up from the beginning, the Twins still conditioned Slowey as a starter right up until the end of March, then basically said, "Nice job starting the last few years, but we like some other guys better, now go and be a setup man because we let all the other ones walk during the offseason so we could sign your replacement."

At age 27 and now a full year removed from surgery, Slowey was looking to re-establish himself as a quality MLB starter this season. Instead, he's battling through injuries to try and throw long relief for baseball's worst club, and watching his earning potential plummet in the meantime.

Is Slowey putting himself before the team? Yes, but then again, it's a really bad team and an organization that hasn't exactly shown much fondness toward him.

He's a good pitcher who had an unfortunate wrist injury and never got his fair shake here. Assuming he's on his way out, I wish Slowey the best wherever he ends up. All I can do now is hope like hell that the Twins aren't shooting themselves in the foot by being forced to sell so low on him.

Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

Yesterday, I broke down the starting rotation, which I deemed to be "the club's strongest and deepest position." Today we look at a unit that falls on the opposite end of the spectrum. Unless you're engaging in starry-eyed optimism, it's tough to view the bullpen as a strength for the Twins as we enter the 2011 season. They lost several quality relief arms during the offseason and signed no one to replace any of them, so much will hinge on a return to form from Joe Nathan and the emergence of several unproven hurlers in unfamiliar roles.

Fortunately, the bullpen is certainly an area that can be improved over the course of the summer through in-season acquisitions, but that means parting with assets when there were a number of established relief pitchers available for nothing but a few million dollars (or less) during the offseason.

Let's take a look at how the bullpen shapes up as we enter the 2011 season:

Joe Nathan
2010 Stats: Did not pitch

Charles Krupa, AP

After missing the 2010 season with Tommy John surgery, Nathan entered spring training this year under the pretense that he would have to earn back a closer role that had been held by incumbent Matt Capps. As it turns out, the basis for the coaching staff's evaluation on this matter was not performance, as Nathan has been awarded closing duties despite allowing nine runs on 10 hits over 7 1/3 innings this month with four walks and only three strikeouts. Those numbers are certainly concerning coming from someone who hasn't pitched in a year after undergoing a serious elbow operation, but the Twins like what they've seen in terms of velocity and command from Nathan so hopefully their confidence is well warranted. If not, they do have the luxury of Capps waiting in the setup role.

Matt Capps
2010 Stats: 73 IP, 42 SV, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB

The Twins gave up too much to get Capps at the trade deadline last July and this year they're paying him too much money. What's done is done, though, and at this point we're better off appreciating what he provides to the bullpen. Nathan's status will remain a question mark until we've seen him successfully close out several games, and should his spring training struggles persist Ron Gardenhire won't hesitate in shifting the proven Capps into the role. That's not a good scenario, since someone else would have to fill Capps' role as top right-handed setup man and no other candidate for that role has much experience pitching high-leverage relief innings in the majors.

Jose Mijares
2010 Stats: 32.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 28/9 K/BB

The 2010 season was a forgettable one for Mijares. Injuries limited him to about half of his normal workload, and when he was on the field he often lacked his typical sharpness. This year, the lefty is reportedly adding a two-seam fastball to his repertoire, which should improve his results against right-handed hitters (a vital skill in a bullpen that already includes two other left-handers). Mijares came to camp looking trimmer this year; if healthy, he should be a quality late-inning option throughout the season.

Kevin Slowey
2010 Stats: 155.2 IP, 13-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 116/29 K/BB

Setting expectations for Slowey the reliever is not easy. We know that he's a good pitcher, and it's not hard to see his outstanding control being a real asset in the bullpen. Then again, he's made only four relief appearances in his major-league career after serving as a starter almost exclusively throughout the minors, so this is new territory for the righty. How will he handle being called on to throw in tight late-game situations? Will pitching in one-inning stints allow him to add a few ticks to his 89-mph fastball? Will his secondary stuff be maximized? Slowey certainly has the potential to succeed in relief, but like many other members of this unit he's a question mark.

Glen Perkins
2010 Stats: 21.2 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 14/5 K/BB

As a 28-year-old who's out of options and hasn't been effective since the 2008 season, Perkins seemed like a lock to be non-tendered this offseason. Instead, the Twins gave him a contract and now a spot in their bullpen. The team has cited Perkins' solid performance while pitching in relief last September as a key reason for retaining him, but -- even looking beyond the fact that opponents hit .326 against him during that minuscule 12-inning sample -- this seems awfully short-sighted. Perkins doesn't miss bats, has been bad against lefties and has always been a guy who's allowed a lot of base runners. I don't get it.

Dusty Hughes
2010 Stats: 56.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 34/24 K/BB

The Twins were very impressed when they faced Hughes as a left-handed reliever for the Royals last year. It's not hard to see why; when playing against Minnesota the southpaw allowed only three runs on nine hits over 13 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he'll no longer be able to face the Twins and against all other opponents Hughes posted a 4.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 28-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 43 innings.  In other words, he wasn't very good, and it was his first extended look in the majors as a 28-year-old who'd been fairly unspectacular in the minors. Dedicating two spots in a questionable bullpen to pitchers like Hughes and Perkins strikes me as an extremely bizarre decision.

Jeff Manship
2010 Stats: 29 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 21/6 K/BB

Rounding out the bullpen at the onset of the 2010 season will be Manship, a guy who spent some time there last season. In his big-league career, the right-hander has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, which aren't exactly the kind of numbers that inspire late-inning confidence. Manship has been quite hittable ever since reaching reaching the highest levels (he's allowed 260 hits over 209 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors) and unless that changes he won't be particularly useful. It will be interesting to see how Gardenhire elects to utilize him.

Musical Chairs

Back in grade school, the game of musical chairs seemed like good, innocent fun. Little did we know that it was actually designed to prepare us for the harsh realities of the world. Oftentimes in life, there are only a limited number of spots available, and when the music stops, it sucks to be the last one standing.

Several starting pitchers for the Twins will enter spring training in a musical chairs mindset this year. The signing of Carl Pavano creates a logjam in the rotation, with six viable candidates and only five spots available. We're safe in assuming that Pavano and Francisco Liriano are guaranteed spots. We're also safe, I think, in assuming that Scott Baker is guaranteed a spot -- he's been a relatively durable and effective arm in each of the past three years, throwing 170-plus innings in each with an ERA never exceeding 4.50.

One can argue that top prospect Kyle Gibson has a shot at earning a job, but I can't see that happening unless an injury or two strikes; there's simply no reason to start his arbitration clock unless pushed by necessity. So it comes down to Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Kevin Slowey competing for the two remaining spots.

Each hurler can make a good case for himself.

Blackburn was the most stable force in the rotation over the 2008 and '09 seasons. He averaged 200 quality innings, and the Twins rewarded that performance with a four-year contract last spring. After signing the new deal, however, Blackburn's contact-happy pitching style began to catch up with him, and he found himself demoted to Triple-A in July. Late in the year, he returned to the big-league rotation and pitched effectively, earning himself a spot in the playoff rotation (though his turn never came).

Duensing stepped into the rotation in 2009 and made a crucial contribution down the stretch, helping propel the Twins to a postseason berth. Last year, he once again played a significant role in the team's success, moving from the bullpen to the rotation when Blackburn's struggles created an opening in July and posting stellar numbers as a starter down the stretch. In 23 career major-league starts, Duensing is 12-3 with a 2.93 ERA.

Slowey pretty clearly has the best stuff and upside of the three, but he has also experienced the least success over the past couple years. A wrist injury limited him to 90 innings in 2009, and last year his production was suppressed by injuries and stamina issues, to the degree that he was left off the postseason roster. However, Slowey is the youngest and he's the only one with a sustainable recipe for success; Duensing's performance last year was propped up by a virtually unrepeatable .270 BABIP and Blackburn will always be heavily dependent on luck and defense. Slowey has a historically great strikeout-to-walk ratio and was flat-out dominant at every level in the minors.

My guess is that, barring a truly awful performance in spring training, Blackburn can stake his claim to one of the rotation spots in question. His greatest value is in his durability (team-leading 92 starts over the past three years), which I believe is the chief reason he got a long-term contract a year ago. He also doesn't offer much as a bullpen arm, and I suspect that is why, following his demotion to bullpen last year, he was sent to the minors after only two relief appearances to keep his arm in starting shape.

If I'm correct in that presumption, we'll be looking at a spring battle between Duensing and Slowey for the fifth and final spot. My opinion right now is that Duensing should be the odd man out. That's not so much an indictment of the left-hander as an acknowledgment that, among all three candidates, he's the only one with any history of success as a reliever. Before moving to the rotation last season, Duensing had registered a 1.67 ERA and held opponents to a .591 OPS in 39 appearances out of the bullpen. Outside of Matt Capps and Jose Mijares, the Twins are short on relief candidates with recent major-league success, so Duensing and his experience would be a vital addition.

Beyond being more well-suited to pitch in relief, Duensing is due for some serious regression as a starting pitcher. His 2.93 big-league ERA as a starter dwarfs his 4.00 mark in Triple-A, and despite his outstanding poise his stuff just isn't very good. This was on display when he failed to induce a single swinging strike in his ALDS start against the Yankees -- a stat I just can't get out of my head.

Eventually, mediocre stuff catches up with you. Look no further than Blackburn's 2010 campaign as evidence. That doesn't mean Duensing is going to suddenly turn into a pumpkin -- and it does help that he throws with his left hand -- but he's much more likely to be the team's fifth (or sixth) best starter this year than their third-best, as some people seem to view him.

I can see the argument for the other side. Certainly Duensing has done enough over the past two years to earn a rotation spot on merit, and given Slowey's stamina issues it's not hard to see his stuff playing better out of the bullpen. The difference-maker for me is Duensing's experience as a reliever, and the fact that -- much like the last two years -- he'll be ready to step into the rotation when things go south. If healthy, Slowey could easily recapture his 2008 form and become a legitimate top-end starter, while Duensing would have to rely on continuing to outperform his underwhelming peripheral numbers (against lineups stacked with righties, against whom he is extremely vulnerable in comparison to lefties) in order to achieve that kind of success.

Duensing has been there when the Twins have needed him over the past two years, and he's played an underrated role in their back-to-back division titles. He's shown an uncanny ability to step up and perform in whatever role he's asked, and that's all the more reason for him to open the season in the bullpen, where his dominance against lefty hitters can be fully utilized. Without a doubt, the Twins will need an extra starter at some point, and when that time comes, Duensing will hopefully be ready to step in with added confidence. Just like last year.

Kevin Slowey: Know When to Hold 'Em

The Twins avoided arbitration with Kevin Slowey yesterday, reaching agreement on a one-year, $2.7 million deal that equals the exact midpoint of the figures submitted by each side. The contract probably won't receive much fanfare, as Slowey hasn't done much to endear himself to fans (or, as I've heard, management) over the past couple years, but I see it as a great deal.

I know I've come to sound like a curmudgeon at times this offseason, but Slowey is one player I'm bullishly optimistic about. While there are a number of players on the roster who seem unlikely to perform up to the level of their salary, Slowey is a strong candidate to outperform his -- and perhaps by a lot.

Paging the calendar back four years, a 22-year-old Slowey was a fast-rising star in the Twins' farm system. After being selected in the second round of the 2005 draft, the right-hander had rocketed through four levels of minor-league competition in a little over one season with jaw-dropping numbers at each stop, and along with Matt Garza he represented a bright future for the Twins' rotation.

Despite posting dazzling stats everywhere he went while ascending through the minors, Slowey's potential as a major-leaguer was downplayed by scouts and prospect buffs who proclaimed his high-80s fastball and unimpressive secondary pitches wouldn't play in the bigs. They had a point, but there's something to be said for any pitcher who can dominate level after level of pro competition as a 22-year-old in his first full professional season.

What Slowey lacked in raw stuff, he made up for with everything else. Described often by those who cover the team as a particularly bright person, Slowey achieved success by outwitting opposing batters and hitting his spots with absolute precision. In 220 innings over that first season-and-change, Slowey issued only 30 walks.

For many pitching prospects who make a living off overpowering hitters with smarts or command rather than pitch quality, the results tend to tail off in the upper levels of the minors. That wasn't the case for Slowey. In 2007, he pulled together his most impressive minor-league performance yet, posting a 1.89 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 107-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 133 1/3 innings at Triple-A. He also received two big-league call-ups that season, struggling in his mid-summer debut but returning with a 3.34 ERA and amazing 28-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 29 2/3 innings during a September call-up.

From all evidence,  Slowey was ready to become a frontline pitcher for the Twins. At 23, he had dominantly conquered every level of the minors in just over two seasons, and was already adjusting to major-league competition.

His 2008 season, spent almost entirely in the Twins rotation, was an extremely impressive one. In 160 1/3 innings spread across 27 starts, Slowey went 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 123-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Not only was the young Slowey already turning in an elite walk rate and a very respectable strikeout rate, he was also establishing himself as a bulldog. His current reputation certainly doesn't reflect this fact, but Slowey hurled three complete games, and two shutouts (which was one more shutout than any other pitcher in the American League threw that year). In 55 minor-league starts, he'd turned in seven complete games.

When I reference Slowey's "current reputation" in a negative way, it's because the right-hander's standing in the eyes of Twins fans has dropped drastically over the past two years. It's not hard to see why -- he's struggled to even hover around mediocrity during that span. The thing is, you can make a pretty good case that those struggles are almost entirely the result of injuries.

Late in the 2008 season, in a game against the White Sox, Slowey was hit in the wrist by a Juan Uribe line drive. X-rays showed no broken bones, but the injury had a lasting effect. Slowey struggled out of the gate in 2009, saw his performance deteriorate rapidly in late June, and opted for season-ending wrist surgery in July. The procedure was rather serious, involving the placement of metal screws in Slowey's pitching wrist, and many wondered whether he would be able to once again harness his elite command.

The righty showed positive signs of that happening in 2010. He came back with pre-surgery velocity and, after some early hiccups, settled back into his groove as a perpetual strike-thrower. (He had a stretch of 17 consecutive outings spanning May, June, July and August in which he didn't walk more than one batter in a game.)

While his core numbers rebounded, Slowey began having stamina issues. His inability to last deep into games was partially rooted in the organization's stringent adherence to a set pitch count for young starters (Slowey exceeded 106 pitches in a start only once) but his opponents' OPS rose from .730 in innings 1-through-3 to .812 in innings 4-through-6, and those who watched him will attest that he regularly seemed to run out of gas before the sixth inning.

It's not clear whether this was related to residual wrist issues or the chronic sore elbow that forced him to have a start pushed back in early August and placed him on the disabled list later that month.

Either way, Slowey will enter the 2011 season with an offseason of rest (which was all that doctors deemed necessary) for the elbow and nearly two years removed from his wrist surgery. Still only 26, he seems like a prime candidate to have a breakout year, recapturing and building on his success from the '08 season.

Unfortunately, his struggles over the past two years -- along with the presence of five other starters on the roster -- do provide the Twins front office with an excuse to move him. I've always gotten the sense they don't see his personality as a clubhouse fit, which is why one of my three offseason predictions back in October was that he would be traded. I desperately hope that I'm wrong about that.

When the cards get dealt out this season, it's not likely that Slowey will come out an ace. But if he's healthy he'll be a very high card. And in a rotation that already features a potential ace in Francisco Liriano, an excellent veteran in Carl Pavano and a hopefully resurgent Scott Baker, that might be all the Twins need.

In poker, you never deal away a high card if it's got a chance to give you a great hand.

***

On an unrelated and more serious note, if you have any money you can afford to spare for a good cause, please consider contributing to One Clap for Zach. It's a fundraiser for the medical expenses of Zach Gabbard, who collapsed while playing basketball in Seth's hometown of Perham and is now hospitalized with a serious heart condition. Short of a monetary donation, I'm sure Zach's family would appreciate your thoughts and prayers.

Three Offseason Predictions

Based on things I've seen, things I've heard, or sheer intuition.

1) Kevin Slowey will be traded. 

This is not a move I'd endorse. I've liked Slowey since he was a star prospect obliterating minor-league hitters, and while he hasn't shown us a ton over the past two seasons I think he's going to turn the corner one of these years when he's able to stay healthy. He gave us a glimpse of his potential in 2008, when he posted a 3.99 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 160 innings, and he's still only 26 years old.

Yet, from talking to folks with a behind-the-scenes perspective, I've never gotten the sense that Slowey is particularly well liked by the Twins. That he was left off the postseason roster this year after winning 13 games during the regular season does nothing to dissuade that notion. It's not that he's a bad guy, just that his personality doesn't seem to fit with this organization. And historically, they tend to get rid of guys like that.

Despite his underwhelming results in the past two seasons, I think Slowey has plenty of trade value. He's a young pitcher with elite command and a dazzling minor-league track record who's entering his first year of arbitration eligibility.

My guess is that the Twins will roll with a rotation consisting of Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and a veteran starter signed from the free agent pool. Top prospect Kyle Gibson would be waiting in the wings should that veteran addition (or any of the other starters) fail, similar to what the Twins did in 2007 when they signed Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson with Slowey and Matt Garza opening the season in Triple-A -- though hopefully they would bring in a more competent veteran this time around.

I hope Slowey's back next year. Unfortunately, I have a hard time envisioning it. But it's just a hunch.

2) Among the team's relief pitchers eligible for free agency, Matt Capps and Jesse Crain will be back. Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay will not.

The Twins have six relievers with contracts expiring this winter and not nearly enough money available to bring them all back, so some decisions will need to be made.

It pains me to predict that Capps will be back, for reasons I explained on Monday. But Bill Smith said when he made the trade that he wouldn't have done it if the reliever was not under team control for 2011, so there's little doubt that the Twins will offer him arbitration and overpay for his services next season.

It's tougher to predict how the rest of the bullpen picture will be sorted out. My guess is that Crain is the only one who stays. Mahay will probably retire while Fuentes and Rauch will likely price themselves out of the Twins' range of interest. Letting Guerrier go would be tough, but the Twins have gotten their use out of him, running him out a league-leading 302 times over the past four years. It's not a good idea to invest much money in a 32-year-old arm with that much wear.

Crain is the only player among the group that was drafted and raised by the Twins, so they likely feel a greater sense of allegiance to him. In addition, he's been a success story for the coaching staff. Last year, when Crain was struggling mid-June, he was sent to the minors to work things out and was a much different pitcher after returning a month later, posting a 2.91 ERA the rest of the way. This year, Crain was again battling through early-season struggles, but some adjustments were made and over the final four months he was one of the league's most reliable relievers.

I think the Twins feel they have a good handle on how to straighten Crain out when he gets out of wack. That, combined with his relative youth, might prompt them to bring him back on a two-year deal.

3) Jim Thome will be back.

I've gone back and forth on this one. Thome is probably going to command a significant raise, as his services will be in much higher demand this winter after an outstanding 2010 campaign. And, while he didn't show his age much this season, he will turn 41 next year and skills can deteriorate quickly at this stage.

But, with all the questions surrounding Morneau, the Twins can hardly afford to lose Thome's power. As popular as he was with the coaches, players and fans, I think the front office will see the risk involved with signing him for $3-4 million as worthwhile. Ideally, Morneau will be back next year and Thome will be able to fill the role he was expected to fill this season -- bench bat and occasional starter. If Morneau can't go, I doubt they'd want Thome to be a full-time DH, but his bat would certainly be nice to have around in that scenario.

Fourth Starter in the Playoffs

On Monday, I posted an article submitting four questions about the Twins' playoff roster for consideration. The topic that seemed to generate the most discussion was which starting pitcher might get the nod to start Game 4 of the ALDS, should there be one.

Right now, the choice appears to be between Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker or the Game 1 starter on short rest. None of those options seem all that unappealing, which is a good sort of conundrum to face. I can't claim to know what the right answer is at this very point in time, and if you think you do, you're probably wrong.

Ron Gardenhire made his current preference clear yesterday, laying out a planned playoff rotation that includes Blackburn as fourth starter. Gardenhire left the door open for adjustments based on what happens over the team's final handful of regular season games, but for now Blackburn stands at the front of the line for that fourth rotation spot in October.

Is Gardy on the right track?

All things being equal, you want Baker or Slowey to pitch a big game before you want Blackburn. They're better pitchers, capable of controlling a lineup with strikeouts unlike Blackburn who allows an insane amount of contact and can only dictate to a certain degree whether those copious balls in play turn into outs. Against a team filled with outstanding hitters like the Yankees or Rays, you want the guy who can get you some essentially guaranteed outs.

But all things are not currently equal. Blackburn has been steadily excellent since returning from a minor-league stint, with a hugely increased ground ball rate and a pair of strong outings against a playoff team. Meanwhile, Baker hasn't pitched into the sixth inning of a game in nearly a month and has been bothered by a sore elbow.

Slowey has battled arm issues late in the season as well, and while he's occasionally flashed brilliance he has yet to settle into a prolonged groove. While Slowey's overall numbers are drastically better than Blackburn's this year, it bears noting that Blackburn has delivered 13 quality starts to Slowey's nine. That includes four against AL playoff teams for Blackburn, one for Slowey.

A hardcore sabermetrician likely will not waver in claiming that Baker should be the guy, regardless of performance over these final games. After all, according to advanced statistics that filter out luck and defense, Baker's been the team's second-best starter this season.

The problem with strictly statistical analysis is that it tends to ignore the human aspects of the game. These aren't robots out there playing. Sometimes streaks can be meaningful. Guys have confidence highs and lows. They go through stretches where their mechanics get out of whack. They pitch through injuries that affect their results.

This might sound like a major endorsement of Blackburn, and it's not meant to be. I've been as low as anyone on the right-hander this season, and there was a point where the thought of him starting a postseason game would have induced nausea for me. But we know he's a streaky pitcher and right now he's undeniably going good. If he unravels in his final starts while his competitors excel and prove they're fully healthy, you re-evaluate. If no one looks up to the challenge, maybe a start from Francisco Liriano on three days rest is the most logical choice.

Above all, I'd encourage everyone to keep an open mind. The right answer now could very well differ from the right answer on October 6th. Only one matters.

If the Playoffs Started Today...

With their victory last night, the Twins moved four games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. With their two best starters taking the mound in the final two games of the series, the Twins stand a good chance of holding a four- or six-game lead by the time the Sox leave town. With only 41 games remaining on the schedule (and with nearly a quarter of Chicago's remaining games coming against the Yankees and Red Sox), the Twins would have to be feeling pretty good about their chances.

Sure, the postseason is still a long ways away and we're getting ahead of ourselves by presuming that the Twins will be there. But, considering the resurgence of the bottom half the rotation, it is interesting to start thinking about which pitchers might get a chance to start in October.

While Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano are clearly in line to be your starters in the first two games of a postseason series (provided things don't come down to the wire in the AL Central again, deriving Ron Gardenhire of the ability to properly set up his rotation), it's not clear who might get the ball in Game 3 and a potential Game 4.

Traditionally, teams will go to a three- or four-man rotation in the playoffs. It's tough to predict which of those routes Gardenhire would choose, since he has done both in the past, but I suspect that if things are going as well as they are right now he'll use four starters. So today's question is this: If the ALDS were to start today, which two starters among the Twins' bottom three would you call upon to start in Games 3 and 4?

Early this summer, when Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn were all sputtering along, the question would have presented a "pick your poison" type of dilemma. However, now that Slowey and Baker have stepped their games up (last night's poor showing by Baker notwithstanding) while Brian Duensing has done an outstanding job replacing Blackburn, it's somewhat difficult to choose a guy to exclude.

I'll present a few strengths and weaknesses for each option and let you reach your own conclusions.

Kevin Slowey

Season Stats: 134.1 IP, 11-5, 4.22 ERA, 98/25 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP

Why He Should Start: Slowey is currently the hottest pitcher in the Twins' rotation. He notably hurled seven no-hit innings against the Athletics on Sunday, and is 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA and only one homer allowed over his past five starts. After displaying uncharacteristically shaky command early in the season, Slowey had issued one or zero walks in each of his past 16 starts prior to Sunday.

Why He Shouldn't Start: Slowey's recent success is a little misleading since it has mostly come against lousy offenses. His four quality starts during the aforementioned five-game span have come against Oakland, Seattle, Baltimore and Cleveland, which happen to be the four lowest scoring offenses in the American League. One has to wonder how his stuff would play against a playoff-caliber lineup in October, especially considering that he has no real big-game experience. He also has rarely pitched past the sixth inning this season and has recently battled some elbow soreness.

Scott Baker

Season Stats: 144.2 IP, 10-9, 4.85 ERA, 121/31 K/BB, 1.32 4WHIP

Why He Should Start: On the surface, Baker looks like the obvious odd man out. His overall numbers don't compare favorably with either of his competitors in this race, and surely most fans have a sour taste in their mouth after he failed to protect a four-run lead against the White Sox last night. But let's look more closely. If the playoffs started today, the other three entrants from the American League would be Texas, New York and Tampa Bay. It seems fairly likely that those three outstanding teams will hold their ground until October. In five starts against those three opponents, Baker owns a 2.53 ERA and has posted a 31-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 32 innings. That's pretty dominant and suggests that, while Baker's results have been inconsistent this year, he has not cowered against top teams. He's also the most experienced member of the group.

Why He Shouldn't Start: The aforementioned inconsistency is a serious concern with Baker. On certain days he looks dazzling, while on others he's prone to leaving multiple pitches hanging over the plate. It's no surprise that he leads the team in home runs allowed with 21, and in tightly contested postseason games that susceptibility to coughing up the long ball can be a death knell. Baker's K/BB ratio is fantastic, but with opponents hitting .284 and slugging .483 against him, one would have to be wary sending him to the hill for a key postseason start.

Brian Duensing

Season Stats: 76.1 IP, 6-1, 2.00 ERA, 42/19 K/BB, 1.05 WHIP

Why He Should Start: For a second consecutive season, Duensing has stepped into the Twins rotation and played the role of savior, providing big start after big start. Since taking over for the beleaguered Blackburn, Duensing has gone 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA in five starts, highlighting his impressive run with a shutout of the A's on Saturday. Despite lacking the ability to miss bats at the rate of Baker or Slowey, Duensing has been the least hittable member of the group this year as he's holding opponents to a measly .223 average. He's also given up only five home runs. In last year's ALDS, circumstances forced Duensing to take the mound in Game 1 and he held his own against the Yankees in New York, so he's no stranger to the pressures of October.

Why He Shouldn't Start: The main reason Duensing shouldn't be in the postseason rotation, and the reason I would probably choose him as the odd man out, actually has nothing to do with any particular flaw in his game. He's simply far more valuable to the bullpen than Baker or Slowey. Duensing was a tremendous asset to the Twins relief corps over the first several months of the season, posting a 1.67 ERA over 39 appearances and coming up big in several high-leverage situations. He has held left-handed hitters to a .143 average and .414 OPS this season. With Jose Mijares' health being in flux and with Ron Mahay being Ron Mahay, Duensing figures to be the Twins' top weapon against tough left-handed hitters come October.

At least that's my take. Obviously, things can change in a hurry over the next several weeks and it's possible that injuries or performance will make the decision a far easier one by the time the postseason rolls around. As things currently stand, though, I'd have Slowey and Baker starting the third and fourth games of a postseason series (though if it was an elimination game, I might be tempted to start Pavano or Liriano on short rest in Game 4).

What about you? If things stay roughly the same as they are now, how would you structure a Twins playoff rotation?

Slowey Taking His Foot Off the Brakes

Ron Gardenhire faced a troublesome dilemma late in yesterday's game.

Kevin Slowey had just wrapped up a seventh hitless inning against the Athletics, putting him on track to hurl the Twins' first no-hitter in almost 11 years. His pitch count sat at 106.

Gardenhire decided to pull Slowey. It was the right decision. Normally, I don't prescribe to the notion that a pitcher's arm is being horribly taxed every time a manager lets him creep over the 100-pitch mark, but Slowey was pitching on extended rest due to elbow soreness that had been bothering him earlier in the week. He's too vital to the Twins' playoff hopes to risk injury for the sake of a personal achievement.

Slowey might have had a shot at the no-no had he done a better job of keeping his pitch count in check, but this is an issue that has plagued him all season long. Whether due to lack of efficiency or lack of stamina, Slowey has regularly been unable to last deep into games this year. It's not because of ineffectiveness -- Slowey has allowed more than four runs only six times in 22 starts.

In those 22 starts, he has also pitched into the seventh inning just six times. While he was brilliant yesterday, the game was emblematic of his plight this season; Slowey was extremely advanced and poised in his approach, but his lack of truly outstanding stuff forced him to sometimes be too fine around the strike zone (three walks) and also resulted in a lot of extended at-bats from two-strike foul balls. Even when he's at his best, which he clearly was yesterday (a fifth inning in which he struck out the side after Alexi Casilla put the leadoff man on second with a brutal throwing error sticks out to me as the the highlight of Slowey's season thus far), it seems he's still just a few notches short of the elite caliber he flashed in the minors.

That's no slight. Slowey is a very good pitcher and a guy who I have always viewed as a potential borderline ace. He's been spectacular over his past handful of starts, and yesterday's pseudo no-hitter stands out as his best effort yet. His inconsistent work over the first several months of the season was baffling, but Slowey now seems to be settling in and his timing could not be better.

Is he an ace? Maybe not -- Slowey's best work has still come against relatively weak lineups and few would expect the same type of excellence against an upper echelon offense. Fortunately, with Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano already leading the pack, the Twins don't need Slowey to be an ace. He's looking like a damn good middle-of-the-rotation option, however, and is taking some significant strides in what is becoming an interesting race to earn a start in a potential postseason series.

Friday Notes

* With three members of the Twins' rotation struggling to consistently deliver quality performances, the team would undoubtedly like to add any of these three starters to the mix:

Pitcher A: 57.2 IP, 6-2, 3.28 ERA, 51/9 K/BB, .247 BAA
Pitcher B: 53.1 IP, 5-3, 3.54 ERA, 43/11 K/BB, .257 BAA
Pitcher C: 55.2 IP, 5-1, 3.72 ERA, 21/11 K/BB, .278 BAA

The thing is, all three of those pitchers are already in the Twins rotation. Those are the home splits for Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn. The problem is that all three hurlers have been absolutely terrible on the road. See for yourself:

Baker: 51.1 IP, 1-6, 6.66 ERA, 44/10 K/BB, .321 BAA
Slowey: 43.2 IP, 3-2, 5.98 ERA, 25/8 K/BB, .333 BAA
Blackburn: 41.1 IP, 2-6, 10.02 ERA, 13/16 K/BB, .398 BAA

Those numbers for Blackburn are especially egregious. Opponents have tagged him for a 1.164 OPS while hitting notching as many home runs (13) as strikeouts in nine starts.

The fact that all three of these pitchers are performing about as well as anyone could possibly expect when throwing at home suggests that whatever problems they're facing this season are largely mental. Sure, Target Field is a spacious and pitcher-friendly park, but that doesn't come close to explaining the enormous disparity in performance for all three of these guys. And if injuries were contributing to their struggles, why would those problems seemingly disappear when they're pitching at home?

The impetus is on Baker, Slowey, Blacbkurn and the Twins' coaching staff to figure out what is causing these issues on the road. These guys are now experienced major-league pitchers; for them to be unraveling in opposing ballparks again and again like this is beyond unacceptable.

* One pitcher you don't need to worry about is Francisco Liriano. Sure, he got roughed up in his last start before the break and neither his 6-7 record nor his 3.86 ERA scream "elite ace," but Liriano's performance this season has been much better than those numbers indicate.
In 107 1/3 innings, Liriano has struck out 117 batters while issuing 30 walks. He has allowed only two home runs. He has induced grounders on over 50 percent of balls in play; only 10 American League pitchers have a higher rate.

In other words, Liriano has been flat-out fantastic when it comes to factors that are under his direct control. That's why his FIP (a fielding independent metric) registers at 2.18, the best mark in the majors. The problem is that when batters are making contact, an inordinate number of balls are falling in for hits, especially over the past couple weeks. Despite the outstanding strikeout rate, Liriano has allowed about a hit per inning thanks to an inflated .361 batting average on balls in play. Compare that figure to the big-league average (.300), Liriano's career average (.318) or even Liriano's mark from last year (.324) and you can see that this is clearly a far higher BABIP than anyone should reasonably expect from the hard-throwing lefty. It's the result of bad luck and substandard fielding behind him.

With J.J. Hardy back in the mix and bad luck likely to even out, I fully expect Liriano to be one of the American League's best pitchers during the second half. In spite of what his record and ERA suggest, he already has been up to this point.

* Speaking of bad luck, lingering effects from Justin Morneau's concussion a couple weeks ago have landed the first baseman on the disabled list, forcing him to miss this weekend's key series against the division-leading White Sox and potentially setting the stage for yet another disappointing second half. I'm hopeful that Morneau can shake off his ailment and return to the outstanding level of production he provided throughout the first half, but we've been through this song and dance before and it's seemingly never ended well.

* Remember back in spring training when a faction of Twins fans was claiming that Wilson Ramos absolutely needed to be on the roster, drawing regular playing time while splitting his workload at catcher and DH? How silly that looks now. Ramos currently possesses a .252 on-base percentage in Triple-A and has hit only four home runs all year. His .562 OPS in Rochester barely edges Drew Butera's .560 mark there last year.

Ramos remains a very strong prospect and by no means am I saying that these struggles will prevent him from eventually turning into a very nice hitter. But maybe people will think twice before calling the Twins' front office morons for sending a 22-year-old with only 54 games of experience above Single-A back to the minors despite his strong performances in winter ball and spring training. Ramos clearly was not ready to be playing in the majors in April, nor is he now.

* Finally, if you haven't picked up a copy of the TwinsCentric 2010 Trade Deadline Primer yet, to me a favor and at least check out the free quarterbook sample here to see all it has to offer. A lot of work from a lot of talented people went into this sucker and we're pretty proud of it. I'm quite sure you'll find it to be an indispensable reference over the next couple weeks.

Slowey Needs to Step Up

The Twins narrowly avoided a disastrous loss on Saturday night, as they were able to battle back for an extra-innings victory after blowing a four-run lead in the ninth, but that didn't stop fans from unleashing their venom on the club during its brutal late-game implosion.

Much vitriol was aimed at Ron Gardenhire, who had Ron Mahay start the ninth with a four-run lead and watched the left-hander load the bases without recording an out before giving way to Jon Rauch, who allowed all three runners to score plus a couple more as the Twins watched a 6-2 lead turn into a 7-6 deficit.

I'm baffled with the anger at Gardenhire. Mahay had been highly effective all season up to that point and was facing the bottom three hitters in the Milwaukee lineup, two of whom were lefties. Still, it was clear on this day that neither Mahay nor Rauch could get the job done, and unfortunately Gardenhire's other options were limited. That's because he'd already been forced to use two of his most reliable relievers in the game due to Kevin Slowey's inability to get his job done.

Despite being handed a 4-0 lead in the first inning, Slowey was unable to work through six frames on Saturday, as Gardenhire was forced to remove him with two outs in the sixth after Corey Hart launched a deep bomb against the right-hander. While that was the only run he allowed in the start, Slowey was unable to work efficiently through the Brewers lineup in spite of his comfortable lead, as his pitch count sat at 102 when Gardenhire took the ball from him.

The short start marked the continuation of a disturbing trend for Slowey. Outside of his eight-inning gem against the punchless Indians lineup early in the season, Slowey has failed to complete six innings in any of his nine starts. This hasn't necessarily been the result of bad pitching, as Slowey has allowed more than three runs only twice, but it's taking him way too many pitches to get people out.

Relief implosions like the one we witnessed on Saturday are bound to happen if you're leaning too hard on your bullpen, and Slowey has been doing just that all year. Blame Gardenhire, Mahay and Rauch for the meltdown all you want, but Saturday's ninth inning nightmare was inevitable and it will happen again if Slowey can't find a way to start pitching deeper into games.

Aces in the Hole

Throughout the offseason, I repeatedly pointed to Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano as wild cards for the Twins rotation. The starting staff entered the season as the team's most glaring potential weakness, given that the Twins ranked 12th out of 14 AL teams in 2009 with a 4.84 starters' ERA and added no new pieces to the rotation from the end of last year to the start of this year. Yet, Slowey and Liriano -- who both had their '09 campaigns muddled by arm issues -- each had the ability to help turn around the fortunes of the Twins' rotation by simply bouncing back with healthy, productive seasons.

Slowey and Liriano have both given plenty of reason to believe they can develop into top-end starters. Slowey stampeded through the minors, posting a 1.94 ERA and 0.85 WHIP across five levels of competition before reaching the majors just two years after being drafted out of Winthrop University. He put in his first full big-league season in 2008, posting a 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 123-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 160 1/3 innings as a 24-year-old. Meanwhile, Liriano had blossomed into a top prospect after being acquired from the Giants in the A.J. Pierzynski trade, and when he joined the big-league ranks full-time in 2006 he was an unstoppable force, going 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 144-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 121 innings.

Yet, Slowey and Liriano both entered this season with big question marks hanging over their heads. Liriano had seen his meteoric rise in 2006 come to an abrupt halt when his elbow gave out, forcing him to undergo Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire '07 campaign and spent both of the past two years struggling to rediscover his command and velocity. Between those two campaigns, Liriano battled confidence problems while going 11-17 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.49 WHIP -- ugly numbers for the former phenom. Slowey ran into his own issues last year, as he posted disappointing numbers over his first 16 starts before succumbing to a painful wrist that ultimately required season-ending surgery. The right-hander had screws implanted in his pitching wrist, and it was unclear whether the operation would take a toll on his pinpoint command.

With Liriano looking to rebound from a lost season that had many questioning whether he'd ever be able to consistently throw the ball over the plate again and Slowey seeking to prove that his wrist surgery was but a bump in the road, this 2010 season loomed large for both starters, particularly given the hefty expectations being placed on his Twins team. Fortunately, positive signs began to emerge early for both pitchers. Liriano dominated the Dominican Winter League, garnering rave reviews and causing many analysts to declare he was back to form. The southpaw continued to impress in spring training, easily locking up the fifth spot in the Twins rotation by showing solid command of his mid-90s fastball while cruising to a 2.70 ERA and 30-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 20 innings of work. Slowey was equally sharp, posting a 1.95 ERA and 20-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his 27 frames.

Of course, those encouraging signs don't mean a whole lot unless they are carried into the regular season, and thus far Liriano and Slowey have both been able to follow through. This was most evident over the last two nights, when both pitchers thoroughly dismantled the Indians at Target Field. Each hurler rattled off eight scoreless frames, and they both did it in their own signature style. Slowey outwitted opposing hitters by working all around the strike zone and painting the corners of the plate. Liriano whipped his hard fastball and darting slider into the bottom part of the zone, inducing whiffs and ground balls. Neither pitcher gave Cleveland's lineup a chance to breathe. In short, both pitched like aces.

Of course, one home start against a relatively weak lineup does not immediately vault either pitcher to elite status. But, in combination with all the promising signs they've given us leading up to this point, these outings from Slowey and Liriano are bound to boost enthusiasm among MLB betting fans starving for a true ace. And while neither pitcher is a sure bet to fill the void that continues to exist in the absence of Santana, both seem poised to go from question marks to exclamation points.

Musing on Spring Performances

The Twins will wrap up their spring schedule down in Florida this week before heading back north and playing a pair of exhibition games against the Cardinals at Target Field over the weekend. This will be followed by a day off on Sunday, with the regular season officially getting underway in Los Angeles on Monday.

Between being out of town and breaking down the entire team position-by-position over the past few weeks, I haven't provided much commentary on what's happening in Grapefruit League play. So today, with the obvious caveat that spring training numbers are to be taken with a half of a grain of salt, I'll peruse some spring training performances and see if any useful insights can be gleaned.

* Yesterday I put out a tweet pointing out that Delmon Young currently leads the team with six extra-base hits this spring, which is an encouraging sign given that many are hoping that the left fielder can turn a corner and start hitting for power here in his age 24 season. As Aaron Gleeman quickly pointed out to me after I posted the tweet, though, Young also hit .361 with a .500 slugging percentage last spring before struggling once the regular season got underway.

No one doubts Young's innate ability, so it shouldn't come as any real surprise that he's been able to succeed in spring training against pitchers who are either rusty, not trying their hardest, not major-league caliber, or some combination of those things.

Ultimately, people are going to see what they want to see in the enigmatic outfielder. Is Young's strong spring a continuation of the improvement he showed late last year during the team's stretch run, or is it just another short-term fluke that won't translate into anything meaningful when the season starts? Unfortunately, I'd tend to lean toward the latter, but I'd love to be wrong.

* Jacque Jones won't be making the team out of spring training, but it's still tough not to be impressed with what he was able to accomplish at the Twins' camp. Given how long he'd been out of the majors and how dreadful the reports I'd received on him from various sources were, I half expected him to be unable to swing a bat. But Jones could certainly swing, as evidenced by his .364/.417/.625 hitting line. Unless another team swoops in to claim him, Jones will open the season in Rochester where he'll be just a phone call away from rejoining the Twins at Target Field. I'd love to see that happen.

* There were two key players I had serious concerns about entering spring training this year, based on injuries that had ended their 2009 seasons. One was Kevin Slowey and the other was Justin Morneau. Slowey has helped to ease my concerns by allowing just four runs on 15 hits over 20 innings while maintaining his pinpoint command, and while Morneau has batted just .184, he has homered twice and ripped three doubles. Since back injuries can really sap a player's power, that's the most important sign to me.

* Team leader in walks this spring? It's a tie between Denard Span and Orlando Hudson, who will be filling the first and second spots in the lineup this year. That's nice to see.

* At the outset of spring training, I had little doubt that Pat Neshek would be opening the season in the minors. He hadn't pitched in a major-league game since May of 2008 and spent all of last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, which would seemingly be an especially big deal for a pitcher with a quirky delivery like his. Yet, Neshek has been terrific this spring. In eight appearances, he has allowed only two runs on five hits over 8 2/3 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. Suddenly, Neshek is a very real candidate to sneak into a bullpen that is now somewhat lacking in right-handed power arms, and he could easily insert himself into the closer conversation.

* The fifth spot in the Twins' rotation is still being framed as an open competition between Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing, but it seems pretty clear who Ron Gardenhire has in mind for the role. Four of Liriano's five appearances this spring have been starts, whereas Duensing has entered as a reliever in three of his four outings. Of course, Liriano also has the gaudy numbers backing him up; in 14 innings, he has fanned 22 batters while issuing only two walks. I'm withholding excitement on Liri-- OK, I can't even say it. I'm really, really excited about Liriano this year.

Wrist Management

Last June, some friends and I made a baseball road trip and one of our stops was St. Louis to see the Twins play the Cardinals in a Saturday afternoon contest. It was a sweltering hot day, with a heat index well over 100 degrees, and the sweat soaking into our clothes subtracted somewhat from our enjoyment of the beautiful Busch Stadium. Perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the day, though, was watching Kevin Slowey struggle against the Cards lineup.

Slowey had entered the game on a roll, having posted a Quality Start in seven of his past eight outings while starting to look like a top-of-the-rotation stalwart. Yet, in his last turn he'd issued four walks -- most since his fourth major-league start back in 2007 -- and on this day something was clearly amiss. Slowey, who typically places all his pitches with exceptional precision, was missing his spots often and offering up far too many hittable pitches. He needed 58 pitches to get through three innings, during which he allowed six hits, including a pair of homers to Albert Pujols. Ron Gardenhire did not send Slowey out for the fourth. The right-hander would go on to make one more start, another three-inning dud against the Tigers, and then his season was done. After an unsuccessful rehab stint, Slowey underwent wrist surgery in early August, seeking to finally solve a problem that had been bothering him since he was hit by a line drive late in the '08 season, and began planning his return for the 2009 season.

The Twins' rotation struggled to replace Slowey's production until the team traded for Carl Pavano, who essentially performed like a Slowey clone following his arrival. Now, the hope is that the Twins' rotation can flourish with both Pavano and Slowey present to complement Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and whoever ends up in the fifth slot. With a well constructed lineup and a relatively deep bullpen, the Twins seem poised for success this year but the rotation remains a concern and much depends on Slowey's ability to prove that his wrist is completely healed. Despite the lengthy recovery time, that isn't a given.

Gardenhire mentioned in January that Slowey had experienced some swelling in that right wrist during the offseason. The team, naturally, downplayed the magnitude of this concern but we all know how these things can go. Should Slowey's wrist continue to be a problem, not only would it take away one of the club's only pitchers realistically capable of blossoming a legitimate frontline starter, it could force them to lean on unproven players like Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship in his stead.

If Slowey's wrist is fully healed, he's a prime candidate for a breakout year. His career MLB numbers up to this point are hardly overwhelming, but he's only 25 and is reaching the point in his career where many younger pitchers turn the corner. Slowey combines elite command with a legitimate ability to miss bats, a combination which led to incredible success during his minor-league career. If he can cut down on the hits allowed and make that recipe work a little better in the majors, there's no reason he can't build upon the success he found in 2008 and turn into one of the American League's better starting pitchers.

Slowey Done For Season

The Twins announced yesterday that Kevin Slowey will undergo surgery on his wrist and is likely done for the season. The news doesn't come as a big surprise. Slowey experienced uncharacteristic command problems in his last couple starts and was subsequently shut down indefinitely due to pain in his right wrist stemming from an injury he sustained late last season. Things like this don't bode well and generally lead to bad news. That is the case here.

It's really terrible news for the Twins. Slowey had been relatively inconsistent this year, giving up far too many hits and far too many homers, but he'd still displayed the ability to dominate at times and had been the team's second-best starter overall. His ability to rebound and pitch the way he did in, say, May -- when he went 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA -- was to be one of the biggest keys for the Twins in the second half in their quest to make a postseason run. Now they'll have to do it without him, and with Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker still struggling to get on track, that's an extremely tall task.

Anthony Swarzak has pitched fairly well in limited duty, but now he'll really be put to the test as a likely fixture in this rotation for the remainder of the season. His peripherals suggest his ERA won't stay under 4 for terribly long. Meanwhile, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins have seen their pitch-to-contact techniques backfire horribly in recent starts, Liriano has struggled hopelessly with his command, and Baker's ERA is still hovering around 5. It's too soon to write them off, but the Twins won't win without quality starting pitching and right now the outlook for this rotation isn't terribly optimistic.