I've generally been pleased with the moves the Twins have made this offseason. In his return to the helm, Terry Ryan has wisely allowed some overpriced free agents to depart while signing solid producers like Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit to bargain deals with little downside.
Two moves that have rubbed me the wrong way, however, are the Kevin Slowey trade and the Matt Capps signing. This isn't because I take issue with the decisions that were made – trading Slowey was certainly justifiable and Capps filled a need as a hard-throwing late-inning righty – but rather the timing.
Ryan has been aggressive in addressing needs and taking care of business this offseason. The Slowey swap and the Capps contract, like the majority of the Twins' moves this winter, were both pulled off before Christmas. However, in neither case was there a need to rush, and events that have occurred recently have made the Twins' haste in those decisions appear rather misguided.
I addressed my quibbles with the Slowey trade earlier this week, when I pointed out that new needs tend to arise for teams as the season approaches and that a better market to trade the embattled starter would have likely developed had the Twins simply shown patience.
With Capps, the Twins clearly overpaid. He's a solid reliever and his $4.75 million deal for next year might be considered reasonable in a different offseason, but not this year. Not with him coming off an ineffecitve campaign and with a sizable crop of similar right-handed relievers on the market competing for jobs. Not with Ryan Madson forced to settle for a one-year deal; with Brad Lidge signing for only $1 million; with Dan Wheeler taking a minor-league contract.
There's no way any other team was going to give Capps close to $5 million. Not even close.
I argued back when the Twins re-signed Capps that the public backlash against the move was excessive – because although I certainly recognized it as an overpay at the time, many folks failed to recognize that the righty does have value and will be a boost to the bullpen.
I also embraced the "no such thing as a bad one-year contract" mantra, reasoning that overpaying Capps by a couple million wouldn't hurt the club long-term and wouldn't prevent them from making other cost-effective moves to round out their bullpen. That's not how a high-revenue team playing in a new stadium should operate.
And yet, the Twins have now watched numerous inexpensive setup men come off the board at dirt-cheap prices – including Lidge and Wheeler, who both signed yesterday – while crying poor and suggesting that they're up against their payroll limit. The Joel Zumaya signing was nice, but he should be viewed more as a smart low-risk flier than a safe bet to lock down the seventh or eighth inning.
I'm not a person who has berated the Twins for lowering payroll and it doesn't really bother me that they're spending $30 million less than the Tigers, who play in a similar market. But if they're not willing to add a million dollars to their current payroll fill an obvious need, the Capps deal looks a whole lot worse.
Maybe this grumbling is all for naught. Maybe Ryan plans to nab one of the remaining relief arms to fill that right-handed setup role and provide the type of security that Zumaya and a crop of iffy internal candidates do not.
But if they don't sign anyone else because they significantly overspent in their eagerness to bring Capps back, the Twins will again be setting up their closer to be the villain in a bullpen that could easily turn out thin and unreliable for a second straight year.
Showing posts with label capps. Show all posts
Showing posts with label capps. Show all posts
Friday, January 27, 2012
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Capps Outrage is Excessive
When it was officially announced on Monday that the Twins had reached agreement with Matt Capps on a one-year, $4.5M deal, the reaction among fans was about as venomous as I've ever seen. My Twitter timeline lit up with angry, expletive-laden tirades. Even some of the most mild-mannered fans were directing profane vitriol toward Terry Ryan. You'd think the Twins hired Jerry Sandusky to be their ninth-inning man.
To be honest, I'm having a hard time understanding why some fans are soaked with such heavy disdain for Capps. He's a generally effective closer who had a bad run of outings during a lost season. The right-hander was certainly tough to watch at times over the summer, but in the grand scheme, he was a minor contributor to the club's woes.
In my mind, Capps has three things working against him with the Target Field Faithful, two of which are completely out of his control:
1) He's not Wilson Ramos.
Capps' career with the Twins began on a sour note, as he was acquired in a lopsided trade that was widely panned at the time and only looks worse in hindsight. This past season, while Joe Mauer's future at catcher was being cast in doubt, fans were forced to watch Capps blow nine saves while the player he was traded for, Wilson Ramos, enjoyed a successful rookie campaign in Washington.
There's no doubt that the Twins would be in better shape right now had that trade never happened, but it did. At this point it should have no bearing on our assessment of Capps.
2) He's not Joe Nathan.
Ryan did such a phenomenal job in identifying and acquiring Nathan that it seems he actually set the bar way too high for himself. In six seasons with the Twins before suffering a torn elbow ligament, Nathan was never off. Even at his worst, he was still one of the league's most dominant and reliable relief arms. There's a reason why many regarded him as the best closer in the game outside of Mariano Rivera during that span.
Capps is certainly a far cry from that level of excellence, but this doesn't mean he's bad. Like the vast majority of relievers in the major leagues, he's susceptible to down years, and he had one in 2011. More often than not, though, he's been perfectly adequate as a late-inning bullpen weapon. At 28, he's still in the heart of his prime.
One other thing: In spite of all his struggles this year, Capps had the second-best qualified WHIP on the team behind Scott Baker, allowing fewer base runners on average than Glen Perkins.
3) He pitched through an injury this year.
In radio and print interviews, Twins' coaches and front-office personnel have clearly been going out of their way this offseason to convince people that Capps' struggles were largely the result of a right wrist injury he was pitching through.
As I wrote a couple weeks ago, a close look at the numbers indicates that these claims are valid. At no point in Capps' career has he had nearly as much trouble striking people out; if he's healthy again in 2012 I suspect we'll see a return to normalcy in K-rate, which would almost surely result in improved numbers across the board.
I don't necessarily think Capps was doing the Twins any favors by pitching through his wrist tendinitis this year, but isn't it exactly the kind of thing most fans wanted to see more of? Sure, Capps was garbage when he took the mound for a period of time, but at least he was out there pitching.
On top of that, he took accountability for his failures, telling reporters "I'd boo me too" when the hometown fans turned against him.
To me, Capps' bum rap seems almost totally unwarranted. I don't love his new contract -- $4.5 million is on the very upper end of what I'd be willing to pay him and the club forfeited an extra draft pick by re-signing him -- but there's really no such thing as a bad one-year deal and locking him in at a reasonable enough rate shores up the back end of the bullpen while enabling Ryan to turn his attention elsewhere.
To be honest, I'm having a hard time understanding why some fans are soaked with such heavy disdain for Capps. He's a generally effective closer who had a bad run of outings during a lost season. The right-hander was certainly tough to watch at times over the summer, but in the grand scheme, he was a minor contributor to the club's woes.
In my mind, Capps has three things working against him with the Target Field Faithful, two of which are completely out of his control:
1) He's not Wilson Ramos.
Capps' career with the Twins began on a sour note, as he was acquired in a lopsided trade that was widely panned at the time and only looks worse in hindsight. This past season, while Joe Mauer's future at catcher was being cast in doubt, fans were forced to watch Capps blow nine saves while the player he was traded for, Wilson Ramos, enjoyed a successful rookie campaign in Washington.
There's no doubt that the Twins would be in better shape right now had that trade never happened, but it did. At this point it should have no bearing on our assessment of Capps.
2) He's not Joe Nathan.
Ryan did such a phenomenal job in identifying and acquiring Nathan that it seems he actually set the bar way too high for himself. In six seasons with the Twins before suffering a torn elbow ligament, Nathan was never off. Even at his worst, he was still one of the league's most dominant and reliable relief arms. There's a reason why many regarded him as the best closer in the game outside of Mariano Rivera during that span.
Capps is certainly a far cry from that level of excellence, but this doesn't mean he's bad. Like the vast majority of relievers in the major leagues, he's susceptible to down years, and he had one in 2011. More often than not, though, he's been perfectly adequate as a late-inning bullpen weapon. At 28, he's still in the heart of his prime.
One other thing: In spite of all his struggles this year, Capps had the second-best qualified WHIP on the team behind Scott Baker, allowing fewer base runners on average than Glen Perkins.
3) He pitched through an injury this year.
In radio and print interviews, Twins' coaches and front-office personnel have clearly been going out of their way this offseason to convince people that Capps' struggles were largely the result of a right wrist injury he was pitching through.
As I wrote a couple weeks ago, a close look at the numbers indicates that these claims are valid. At no point in Capps' career has he had nearly as much trouble striking people out; if he's healthy again in 2012 I suspect we'll see a return to normalcy in K-rate, which would almost surely result in improved numbers across the board.
I don't necessarily think Capps was doing the Twins any favors by pitching through his wrist tendinitis this year, but isn't it exactly the kind of thing most fans wanted to see more of? Sure, Capps was garbage when he took the mound for a period of time, but at least he was out there pitching.
On top of that, he took accountability for his failures, telling reporters "I'd boo me too" when the hometown fans turned against him.
To me, Capps' bum rap seems almost totally unwarranted. I don't love his new contract -- $4.5 million is on the very upper end of what I'd be willing to pay him and the club forfeited an extra draft pick by re-signing him -- but there's really no such thing as a bad one-year deal and locking him in at a reasonable enough rate shores up the back end of the bullpen while enabling Ryan to turn his attention elsewhere.
Friday, December 02, 2011
The One-Year Fallacy
I think we can all agree that 2011 was a disastrous year for the Minnesota Twins. Their win total decreased by a whopping 31 games from the season before, as nearly everything that could go wrong did.
But it was one season, and it's in the past now. It's time to look forward. That goes for the players that suffered through disappointing campaigns as well as the folks who continue to hold it against them.
Lately, I'm seeing too many fans and bloggers basing their entire perceptions of certain players on this one horrible season, and that just seems completely misguided when the game of baseball, by nature, is so volatile on a year-to-year basis.
From one season to the next, we've seen Francisco Liriano turn from erratic mess to elite frontline starter and then back again. We've seen Delmon Young go from imposing middle-of-the-lineup slugger to utter disappointment. We've seen Glen Perkins go from being unable to get hitters out in Triple-A to blossoming as one of the best late-inning relievers in the American League.
Fortunes turn quickly in this game. Careers are marked by peaks and valleys. And there are two players in particular that I see a lot of people giving up on after dramatic drop-offs in 2011: Matt Capps and Kevin Slowey.
Fans have widely lamented the notion that Capps could return in the closer role for the Twins next year. On this week's edition of the excellent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, John Bonnes went so far as to say that he'd hate a Capps signing regardless of the terms.
There are certainly reasons not to want Capps back, not the least of which being that he'd yield a high draft pick by signing elsewhere. But his merits as a late-inning reliever should not be completely condemned based solely on his struggles over the summer, when he was dealing with a forearm strain.
I'm no huge Capps fan and clearly the Twins have overpaid dearly for his services up to this point. But one ugly, injury-plagued campaign in a season that was filled with them should not cause people to ignore his lengthy track record as an effective reliever. For his career, he owns a 3.51 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and when he was healthy in 2010 he was a perfectly adequate ninth-inning man. There's little reason to believe he can't return to that level of productivity in 2012 if healthy, and at the right price this would make him a fine closing option for a team that doesn't necessarily expect to contend.
As for Slowey, the Twins have given indications that they plan on either non-tendering or trading the embattled righty. For the most part, the fan base seems to be fully on board with this course of action. It's true that he caused plenty of headaches this year and didn't record a single win even in his eight starts.
It's also true that Slowey won 35 games the previous three seasons (more than any Twins pitcher other than Scott Baker) and is a 27-year-old with a career 4.7 K/BB ratio who will cost only $3 million or so in 2012. With their shoddy rotation depth and limited funds, can the Twins afford to give up on such a player after one tumultuous year?
Those who follow the Twins, and especially those who are involved with the organization, have their own personal conceptions about these players – the inevitable result of prolonged up-close exposure. But when trying to make decisions for the betterment of the team, sometimes it's best to remove ourselves and make an objective assessment of how players like Capps and Slowey are likely to perform next year and beyond.
Contrary to popular belief, their future performances are not necessarily dictated by what happened in 2011. If that were universally the case, the Twins would have an impossibly tall task in front of them as they try to return to contention.
But it was one season, and it's in the past now. It's time to look forward. That goes for the players that suffered through disappointing campaigns as well as the folks who continue to hold it against them.
Lately, I'm seeing too many fans and bloggers basing their entire perceptions of certain players on this one horrible season, and that just seems completely misguided when the game of baseball, by nature, is so volatile on a year-to-year basis.
From one season to the next, we've seen Francisco Liriano turn from erratic mess to elite frontline starter and then back again. We've seen Delmon Young go from imposing middle-of-the-lineup slugger to utter disappointment. We've seen Glen Perkins go from being unable to get hitters out in Triple-A to blossoming as one of the best late-inning relievers in the American League.
Fortunes turn quickly in this game. Careers are marked by peaks and valleys. And there are two players in particular that I see a lot of people giving up on after dramatic drop-offs in 2011: Matt Capps and Kevin Slowey.
Fans have widely lamented the notion that Capps could return in the closer role for the Twins next year. On this week's edition of the excellent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, John Bonnes went so far as to say that he'd hate a Capps signing regardless of the terms.
There are certainly reasons not to want Capps back, not the least of which being that he'd yield a high draft pick by signing elsewhere. But his merits as a late-inning reliever should not be completely condemned based solely on his struggles over the summer, when he was dealing with a forearm strain.
I'm no huge Capps fan and clearly the Twins have overpaid dearly for his services up to this point. But one ugly, injury-plagued campaign in a season that was filled with them should not cause people to ignore his lengthy track record as an effective reliever. For his career, he owns a 3.51 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and when he was healthy in 2010 he was a perfectly adequate ninth-inning man. There's little reason to believe he can't return to that level of productivity in 2012 if healthy, and at the right price this would make him a fine closing option for a team that doesn't necessarily expect to contend.
As for Slowey, the Twins have given indications that they plan on either non-tendering or trading the embattled righty. For the most part, the fan base seems to be fully on board with this course of action. It's true that he caused plenty of headaches this year and didn't record a single win even in his eight starts.
It's also true that Slowey won 35 games the previous three seasons (more than any Twins pitcher other than Scott Baker) and is a 27-year-old with a career 4.7 K/BB ratio who will cost only $3 million or so in 2012. With their shoddy rotation depth and limited funds, can the Twins afford to give up on such a player after one tumultuous year?
Those who follow the Twins, and especially those who are involved with the organization, have their own personal conceptions about these players – the inevitable result of prolonged up-close exposure. But when trying to make decisions for the betterment of the team, sometimes it's best to remove ourselves and make an objective assessment of how players like Capps and Slowey are likely to perform next year and beyond.
Contrary to popular belief, their future performances are not necessarily dictated by what happened in 2011. If that were universally the case, the Twins would have an impossibly tall task in front of them as they try to return to contention.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Finding Nathan's Replacement
The biggest question created by the departure of Joe Nathan is, obviously, who is going to fulfill his role as closer for the Twins.
This is an organization that has highly valued the ninth-inning job over the years, as evidenced by their willingness to hand Nathan a $47 million extension back in 2008, and later by their willingness to trade for and subsequently overpay established closer Matt Capps to be Nathan's fallback plan.
I would guess that the front office considers the closer position less of a priority at this point, given the likelihood that the team will not contend next year, but this is still not a decision I expect to be taken lightly. As I see it, there are four options for proceeding:
1) Promote Glen Perkins.
Perkins has certainly done plenty to earn consideration. He was one of the most dominant relievers in the American League this year, posting a 2.48 ERA with an excellent 65-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61 2/3 innings as a setup man.
What the Twins have to ask themselves is whether they're comfortable removing the southpaw from a role in which he was so wildly effective. As the Twins' de facto bullpen ace for much of the season, Perkins was frequently called upon to get more than three outs, to dispatch lefty hitters (whom he held to a .589 OPS) and to work out of sticky situations.
Perkins would not be utilized as optimally in the closer role, where he'd generally be facing whatever batters happened to be due up in the ninth, with a clean slate and with a lead ranging anywhere from one to three runs. All of those tricky spots he worked out of last year would go to someone else.
If the Twins believe Perkins is capable of repeating what he did in 2011, I think they're better off leaving him where he's at.
2) Re-sign Matt Capps.
I know, I know. This is an unthinkable option. But really, it's not.
In an interview with KFAN's Paul Allen yesterday, pitching coach Rick Anderson called out Capps as a potential replacement, saying "I wouldn't give up on a guy like him so quick." Anderson pointed out that the right-hander's struggles this season were largely attributable to a forearm injury that he pitched through, and it's a fair point.
When he's been healthy, Capps has generally been a good enough reliever to adequately handle closing duties, and he has the kind of makeup and accountability that Twins coaches like to see. He showed signs of returning to normal late in the season season, and if he could be signed for significantly less than he earned in 2011, he wouldn't be the worst option as a late-inning counterpart to Perkins.
There's no question that the Twins would have a tough time selling this one to the fans, though.
3) Sign another free agent.
There are a number of closers out on the market, which is one reason the loss of Nathan is easier to bear. On the high end, you've got guys like Ryan Madson, Heath Bell and Francisco Cordero, all of whom the Twins are likely to pass on due to cost.
But then you've got a number of intriguing buy-low candidates. One example is Jonathan Broxton, the formerly dominant Dodgers closer who was limited to 12 innings this year by injury but is still only 27. Another example is Brad Lidge, the slider-flinging right-hander from Philly who pitched only 19 innings but turned in a 1.40 ERA with lots of strikeouts.
4) Acquire a replacement via trade.
The Twins have already flirted with this option, as they were reportedly close to a deal with the Nationals in July that would have brought Washington's young closer Drew Storen to Minnesota. Joe Christensen said a week ago that he wouldn't rule out the possibility of those talks being rekindled, but Ryan may also turn his attention to another closer that is apparently being made available: Andrew Bailey of the Athletics.
ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted this week that the odds of Bailey being traded "appear to be about 100 percent." Like Storen, he's a young right-handed reliever with dominant numbers and several years of team control remaining. Bailey is four years older than Storen and he experienced some elbow problems this spring, but those factors should make him easier to acquire.
Of course, another option is that the Twins follow the route they did with Nathan, identifying a quality setup man in another organization who hasn't yet been established as a full-time closer. The Rays pulled this off quite successfully with Rafael Soriano in 2010.
Whichever direction they choose to take, the Twins will be wise not to invest a huge amount of money into the closer position considering the various uncertainties that surround this club in the short term. With Terry Ryan at the helm, I feel a lot more confident about their ability to do so successfully than I did before.
This is an organization that has highly valued the ninth-inning job over the years, as evidenced by their willingness to hand Nathan a $47 million extension back in 2008, and later by their willingness to trade for and subsequently overpay established closer Matt Capps to be Nathan's fallback plan.
I would guess that the front office considers the closer position less of a priority at this point, given the likelihood that the team will not contend next year, but this is still not a decision I expect to be taken lightly. As I see it, there are four options for proceeding:
1) Promote Glen Perkins.
Perkins has certainly done plenty to earn consideration. He was one of the most dominant relievers in the American League this year, posting a 2.48 ERA with an excellent 65-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61 2/3 innings as a setup man.
What the Twins have to ask themselves is whether they're comfortable removing the southpaw from a role in which he was so wildly effective. As the Twins' de facto bullpen ace for much of the season, Perkins was frequently called upon to get more than three outs, to dispatch lefty hitters (whom he held to a .589 OPS) and to work out of sticky situations.
Perkins would not be utilized as optimally in the closer role, where he'd generally be facing whatever batters happened to be due up in the ninth, with a clean slate and with a lead ranging anywhere from one to three runs. All of those tricky spots he worked out of last year would go to someone else.
If the Twins believe Perkins is capable of repeating what he did in 2011, I think they're better off leaving him where he's at.
2) Re-sign Matt Capps.
I know, I know. This is an unthinkable option. But really, it's not.
In an interview with KFAN's Paul Allen yesterday, pitching coach Rick Anderson called out Capps as a potential replacement, saying "I wouldn't give up on a guy like him so quick." Anderson pointed out that the right-hander's struggles this season were largely attributable to a forearm injury that he pitched through, and it's a fair point.
When he's been healthy, Capps has generally been a good enough reliever to adequately handle closing duties, and he has the kind of makeup and accountability that Twins coaches like to see. He showed signs of returning to normal late in the season season, and if he could be signed for significantly less than he earned in 2011, he wouldn't be the worst option as a late-inning counterpart to Perkins.
There's no question that the Twins would have a tough time selling this one to the fans, though.
3) Sign another free agent.
There are a number of closers out on the market, which is one reason the loss of Nathan is easier to bear. On the high end, you've got guys like Ryan Madson, Heath Bell and Francisco Cordero, all of whom the Twins are likely to pass on due to cost.
But then you've got a number of intriguing buy-low candidates. One example is Jonathan Broxton, the formerly dominant Dodgers closer who was limited to 12 innings this year by injury but is still only 27. Another example is Brad Lidge, the slider-flinging right-hander from Philly who pitched only 19 innings but turned in a 1.40 ERA with lots of strikeouts.
4) Acquire a replacement via trade.
The Twins have already flirted with this option, as they were reportedly close to a deal with the Nationals in July that would have brought Washington's young closer Drew Storen to Minnesota. Joe Christensen said a week ago that he wouldn't rule out the possibility of those talks being rekindled, but Ryan may also turn his attention to another closer that is apparently being made available: Andrew Bailey of the Athletics.
ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted this week that the odds of Bailey being traded "appear to be about 100 percent." Like Storen, he's a young right-handed reliever with dominant numbers and several years of team control remaining. Bailey is four years older than Storen and he experienced some elbow problems this spring, but those factors should make him easier to acquire.
Of course, another option is that the Twins follow the route they did with Nathan, identifying a quality setup man in another organization who hasn't yet been established as a full-time closer. The Rays pulled this off quite successfully with Rafael Soriano in 2010.
Whichever direction they choose to take, the Twins will be wise not to invest a huge amount of money into the closer position considering the various uncertainties that surround this club in the short term. With Terry Ryan at the helm, I feel a lot more confident about their ability to do so successfully than I did before.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Pitching Through Pain
That sound you heard on Monday? That was the collective groan from Twins fans everywhere around the time Joe Christensen posted a blog entry stating that the club has expressed interest in retaining embattled reliever Matt Capps.
The information comes from Capps' agent, Paul Kinzer, and his job is to create a market for his client so it wouldn't be surprising if he is overstating Terry Ryan's interest. Nevertheless, as Seth pointed out yesterday, the Twins wouldn't be crazy to bring Capps back -- in a reduced role and at a palatable price.
Kinzer told Christensen that he expects Capps to get a job closing somewhere, but given the number of established closers in free agency and the number of teams that actually need a ninth-inning guy, this seems like wishful thinking. More likely, Capps will have to settle for a setup job at about half the $7.15 million salary he earned this year. Therefore, I'm not irked by the notion that Ryan would consider reaching out.
I am, however, irked by another tidbit I came across. In pointing out the right-hander's struggles, Christensen mentions that "the Twins appreciated the way Capps kept taking the ball, even when he was dealing with some right wrist tendinitis."
Looking at Capps' 2011 season, it's not difficult to pinpoint the time frame where this ailment may have been affecting him. He's never been a huge strikeout artist, but from June 28th to August 18th he managed only three strikeouts while facing 84 batters. That's a 4 percent K-rate, which makes Nick Blackburn look like Nolan Ryan. During that span, opponents hit .320/.381/.480 against Capps, saddling him with a 5.79 ERA and three blown saves.
Outside of that mid-summer window, though, Capps struck out 16 percent of the batters he faced in 2011, which is right in line with his 18 percent career rate. In combination with his always excellent control, that kind of moderate strikeout proficiency can make Capps a successful late-inning reliever, and certainly has before.
Depending on the terms, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if the Twins were to bring back Capps for another season. But they'll be a lot better off in 2012 if he and the rest of his teammates swallow their pride and sit out when they're dealing with inhibiting injuries.
The information comes from Capps' agent, Paul Kinzer, and his job is to create a market for his client so it wouldn't be surprising if he is overstating Terry Ryan's interest. Nevertheless, as Seth pointed out yesterday, the Twins wouldn't be crazy to bring Capps back -- in a reduced role and at a palatable price.
Kinzer told Christensen that he expects Capps to get a job closing somewhere, but given the number of established closers in free agency and the number of teams that actually need a ninth-inning guy, this seems like wishful thinking. More likely, Capps will have to settle for a setup job at about half the $7.15 million salary he earned this year. Therefore, I'm not irked by the notion that Ryan would consider reaching out.
I am, however, irked by another tidbit I came across. In pointing out the right-hander's struggles, Christensen mentions that "the Twins appreciated the way Capps kept taking the ball, even when he was dealing with some right wrist tendinitis."
Looking at Capps' 2011 season, it's not difficult to pinpoint the time frame where this ailment may have been affecting him. He's never been a huge strikeout artist, but from June 28th to August 18th he managed only three strikeouts while facing 84 batters. That's a 4 percent K-rate, which makes Nick Blackburn look like Nolan Ryan. During that span, opponents hit .320/.381/.480 against Capps, saddling him with a 5.79 ERA and three blown saves.
Outside of that mid-summer window, though, Capps struck out 16 percent of the batters he faced in 2011, which is right in line with his 18 percent career rate. In combination with his always excellent control, that kind of moderate strikeout proficiency can make Capps a successful late-inning reliever, and certainly has before.
Depending on the terms, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if the Twins were to bring back Capps for another season. But they'll be a lot better off in 2012 if he and the rest of his teammates swallow their pride and sit out when they're dealing with inhibiting injuries.
Wednesday, July 06, 2011
The Closer Controversy
It's been a rough month of July thus far for Matt Capps.
On Saturday night, the right-hander entered to protect a three-run lead against Milwaukee in the ninth, only to yield four runs on five hits while recording two outs, giving away the remnants of what was once a seven-run edge.
The following day, he came on with a two-run lead, but gave up two quick hits while recording only one out and was replaced with Glen Perkins, who closed out the win.
Last night, Capps came on in a 3-1 ballgame, immediately surrendered a home run, then surrounded two outs with a hit and a walk before once again being pulled in favor of Perkins, who once again finished the job.
That's three consecutive multi-run leads that Capps has been unable to close out. Not exactly what you're looking for in a closer, especially when your offensively challenged club needs to play .630 ball the rest of the way in order to have a realistic shot at the postseason.
Ron Gardenhire is publicly maintaining that Capps is still the Twins' closer, but there's no doubt that his confidence has waned. Gardy's given the righty an uncharacteristically short leash over his past two outings (for which the manager deserves a lot of credit), and Capps hadn't been particularly effective prior to this month, converting only 13 of 18 save chances.
At this point, fans are calling for Capps' head (I think I learned some new cuss words sitting out by the bullpen at Target Field last night) but the reality is that he's a good -- not great -- reliever that's going through a slump. It's sort of similar, in fact, to the skid that struck Jon Rauch in July of last year, prompting the Twins to trade for Capps in the first place.
Since that swap, Capps has gone 29-for-37 in save opportunities. That 78 percent conversion rate is decidedly mediocre and is actually exactly the same as Rauch's rate over the past two years with Minnesota and Toronto. Similar results for similarly good-but-not-great relief pitchers.
What many said at the time has now been unequivocally proven: there was no mystical quality to Capps' "closing experience," for which the enamored Twins gave up their top catching prospect at the deadline last year and overpaid wildly in arbitration this year. They got suckered.
But there's no use in beating a dead horse. Right now I can only hope that the Twins' decision-makers have learned their lesson, and that they're prepared to swallow their pride and get somebody in the ninth inning who can throw the ball past a hitter once in a while.
It's not his last three outings that have made it obvious Capps is a bad fit in the closer role. It's his 5.3 K/9IP rate on the season. Consistent success is almost unachievable for a reliever allowing that much contact.
On Saturday night, the right-hander entered to protect a three-run lead against Milwaukee in the ninth, only to yield four runs on five hits while recording two outs, giving away the remnants of what was once a seven-run edge.
The following day, he came on with a two-run lead, but gave up two quick hits while recording only one out and was replaced with Glen Perkins, who closed out the win.
Last night, Capps came on in a 3-1 ballgame, immediately surrendered a home run, then surrounded two outs with a hit and a walk before once again being pulled in favor of Perkins, who once again finished the job.
That's three consecutive multi-run leads that Capps has been unable to close out. Not exactly what you're looking for in a closer, especially when your offensively challenged club needs to play .630 ball the rest of the way in order to have a realistic shot at the postseason.
Ron Gardenhire is publicly maintaining that Capps is still the Twins' closer, but there's no doubt that his confidence has waned. Gardy's given the righty an uncharacteristically short leash over his past two outings (for which the manager deserves a lot of credit), and Capps hadn't been particularly effective prior to this month, converting only 13 of 18 save chances.
At this point, fans are calling for Capps' head (I think I learned some new cuss words sitting out by the bullpen at Target Field last night) but the reality is that he's a good -- not great -- reliever that's going through a slump. It's sort of similar, in fact, to the skid that struck Jon Rauch in July of last year, prompting the Twins to trade for Capps in the first place.
Since that swap, Capps has gone 29-for-37 in save opportunities. That 78 percent conversion rate is decidedly mediocre and is actually exactly the same as Rauch's rate over the past two years with Minnesota and Toronto. Similar results for similarly good-but-not-great relief pitchers.
What many said at the time has now been unequivocally proven: there was no mystical quality to Capps' "closing experience," for which the enamored Twins gave up their top catching prospect at the deadline last year and overpaid wildly in arbitration this year. They got suckered.
But there's no use in beating a dead horse. Right now I can only hope that the Twins' decision-makers have learned their lesson, and that they're prepared to swallow their pride and get somebody in the ninth inning who can throw the ball past a hitter once in a while.
It's not his last three outings that have made it obvious Capps is a bad fit in the closer role. It's his 5.3 K/9IP rate on the season. Consistent success is almost unachievable for a reliever allowing that much contact.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Too Many Strikes
In baseball, as in life, things aren't always black-and-white.
For example, throwing strikes and limiting walks is generally a good thing for a pitcher. Yet, there is such a thing as throwing too many strikes, and I think we're seeing it from Matt Capps.
The Twins' closer has faced 111 batters this season and walked only two of them. His minuscule walk rate of 0.6 BB/9IP ranks as the lowest in the majors, edging Kyle Farnsworth, who's at 0.8 (what?). Capps has thrown 70 percent of his pitches for strikes.
Pounding the zone has helped the right-hander limit base runners, as evidenced by a stellar 0.93 WHIP. On the flip side, though, he's not fooling anybody. Hitters know what to expect and come to the plate ready to swing and make contact. Capps' strikeout rate has sunk to a career-low 5.5 K/9IP, and it's very tough for a closer to succeed with so few whiffs.
Capps has a good fastball, but he's throwing it 84 percent of the time and almost always over the plate. He's become too predictable, which has enabled hitters to jump on him for five home runs (one short of his total in 73 innings last year).
From my perspective, he needs to start working out of the zone a bit more often to keep hitters honest, making the opposite adjustment of Francisco Liriano. If he can cut down on the hard-hit balls and induce a few more strikeouts, Capps actually figures to be very successful in the second half.
Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's Minnesota Twins Vintage World Series DVD contest. The three names drawn were: Casey Bresnahan, Matthew Beyer and Mark Dasovic.
Thanks to everyone who submitted their name, especially those of you who included a nice personal note. I'll try and run another giveaway soon.
If you didn't win but are still interested in the DVD, you can check it out here.
Joe Mauer is hitting the Batting Cages with eyes on returning later this week. Can he help fuel the Twins' turnaround?
For example, throwing strikes and limiting walks is generally a good thing for a pitcher. Yet, there is such a thing as throwing too many strikes, and I think we're seeing it from Matt Capps.
The Twins' closer has faced 111 batters this season and walked only two of them. His minuscule walk rate of 0.6 BB/9IP ranks as the lowest in the majors, edging Kyle Farnsworth, who's at 0.8 (what?). Capps has thrown 70 percent of his pitches for strikes.
Pounding the zone has helped the right-hander limit base runners, as evidenced by a stellar 0.93 WHIP. On the flip side, though, he's not fooling anybody. Hitters know what to expect and come to the plate ready to swing and make contact. Capps' strikeout rate has sunk to a career-low 5.5 K/9IP, and it's very tough for a closer to succeed with so few whiffs.
Capps has a good fastball, but he's throwing it 84 percent of the time and almost always over the plate. He's become too predictable, which has enabled hitters to jump on him for five home runs (one short of his total in 73 innings last year).
From my perspective, he needs to start working out of the zone a bit more often to keep hitters honest, making the opposite adjustment of Francisco Liriano. If he can cut down on the hard-hit balls and induce a few more strikeouts, Capps actually figures to be very successful in the second half.
---
Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's Minnesota Twins Vintage World Series DVD contest. The three names drawn were: Casey Bresnahan, Matthew Beyer and Mark Dasovic.
Thanks to everyone who submitted their name, especially those of you who included a nice personal note. I'll try and run another giveaway soon.
If you didn't win but are still interested in the DVD, you can check it out here.
---
Joe Mauer is hitting the Batting Cages with eyes on returning later this week. Can he help fuel the Twins' turnaround?
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher
Yesterday, I broke down the starting rotation, which I deemed to be "the club's strongest and deepest position." Today we look at a unit that falls on the opposite end of the spectrum. Unless you're engaging in starry-eyed optimism, it's tough to view the bullpen as a strength for the Twins as we enter the 2011 season. They lost several quality relief arms during the offseason and signed no one to replace any of them, so much will hinge on a return to form from Joe Nathan and the emergence of several unproven hurlers in unfamiliar roles.
Fortunately, the bullpen is certainly an area that can be improved over the course of the summer through in-season acquisitions, but that means parting with assets when there were a number of established relief pitchers available for nothing but a few million dollars (or less) during the offseason.
Let's take a look at how the bullpen shapes up as we enter the 2011 season:
Joe Nathan
2010 Stats: Did not pitch
After missing the 2010 season with Tommy John surgery, Nathan entered spring training this year under the pretense that he would have to earn back a closer role that had been held by incumbent Matt Capps. As it turns out, the basis for the coaching staff's evaluation on this matter was not performance, as Nathan has been awarded closing duties despite allowing nine runs on 10 hits over 7 1/3 innings this month with four walks and only three strikeouts. Those numbers are certainly concerning coming from someone who hasn't pitched in a year after undergoing a serious elbow operation, but the Twins like what they've seen in terms of velocity and command from Nathan so hopefully their confidence is well warranted. If not, they do have the luxury of Capps waiting in the setup role.
Matt Capps
2010 Stats: 73 IP, 42 SV, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB
The Twins gave up too much to get Capps at the trade deadline last July and this year they're paying him too much money. What's done is done, though, and at this point we're better off appreciating what he provides to the bullpen. Nathan's status will remain a question mark until we've seen him successfully close out several games, and should his spring training struggles persist Ron Gardenhire won't hesitate in shifting the proven Capps into the role. That's not a good scenario, since someone else would have to fill Capps' role as top right-handed setup man and no other candidate for that role has much experience pitching high-leverage relief innings in the majors.
Jose Mijares
2010 Stats: 32.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 28/9 K/BB
The 2010 season was a forgettable one for Mijares. Injuries limited him to about half of his normal workload, and when he was on the field he often lacked his typical sharpness. This year, the lefty is reportedly adding a two-seam fastball to his repertoire, which should improve his results against right-handed hitters (a vital skill in a bullpen that already includes two other left-handers). Mijares came to camp looking trimmer this year; if healthy, he should be a quality late-inning option throughout the season.
Kevin Slowey
2010 Stats: 155.2 IP, 13-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 116/29 K/BB
Setting expectations for Slowey the reliever is not easy. We know that he's a good pitcher, and it's not hard to see his outstanding control being a real asset in the bullpen. Then again, he's made only four relief appearances in his major-league career after serving as a starter almost exclusively throughout the minors, so this is new territory for the righty. How will he handle being called on to throw in tight late-game situations? Will pitching in one-inning stints allow him to add a few ticks to his 89-mph fastball? Will his secondary stuff be maximized? Slowey certainly has the potential to succeed in relief, but like many other members of this unit he's a question mark.
Glen Perkins
2010 Stats: 21.2 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 14/5 K/BB
As a 28-year-old who's out of options and hasn't been effective since the 2008 season, Perkins seemed like a lock to be non-tendered this offseason. Instead, the Twins gave him a contract and now a spot in their bullpen. The team has cited Perkins' solid performance while pitching in relief last September as a key reason for retaining him, but -- even looking beyond the fact that opponents hit .326 against him during that minuscule 12-inning sample -- this seems awfully short-sighted. Perkins doesn't miss bats, has been bad against lefties and has always been a guy who's allowed a lot of base runners. I don't get it.
Dusty Hughes
2010 Stats: 56.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 34/24 K/BB
The Twins were very impressed when they faced Hughes as a left-handed reliever for the Royals last year. It's not hard to see why; when playing against Minnesota the southpaw allowed only three runs on nine hits over 13 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he'll no longer be able to face the Twins and against all other opponents Hughes posted a 4.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 28-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 43 innings. In other words, he wasn't very good, and it was his first extended look in the majors as a 28-year-old who'd been fairly unspectacular in the minors. Dedicating two spots in a questionable bullpen to pitchers like Hughes and Perkins strikes me as an extremely bizarre decision.
Jeff Manship
2010 Stats: 29 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 21/6 K/BB
Rounding out the bullpen at the onset of the 2010 season will be Manship, a guy who spent some time there last season. In his big-league career, the right-hander has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, which aren't exactly the kind of numbers that inspire late-inning confidence. Manship has been quite hittable ever since reaching reaching the highest levels (he's allowed 260 hits over 209 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors) and unless that changes he won't be particularly useful. It will be interesting to see how Gardenhire elects to utilize him.
Fortunately, the bullpen is certainly an area that can be improved over the course of the summer through in-season acquisitions, but that means parting with assets when there were a number of established relief pitchers available for nothing but a few million dollars (or less) during the offseason.
Let's take a look at how the bullpen shapes up as we enter the 2011 season:
Joe Nathan
2010 Stats: Did not pitch
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| Charles Krupa, AP |
Matt Capps
2010 Stats: 73 IP, 42 SV, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB
The Twins gave up too much to get Capps at the trade deadline last July and this year they're paying him too much money. What's done is done, though, and at this point we're better off appreciating what he provides to the bullpen. Nathan's status will remain a question mark until we've seen him successfully close out several games, and should his spring training struggles persist Ron Gardenhire won't hesitate in shifting the proven Capps into the role. That's not a good scenario, since someone else would have to fill Capps' role as top right-handed setup man and no other candidate for that role has much experience pitching high-leverage relief innings in the majors.
Jose Mijares
2010 Stats: 32.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 28/9 K/BB
The 2010 season was a forgettable one for Mijares. Injuries limited him to about half of his normal workload, and when he was on the field he often lacked his typical sharpness. This year, the lefty is reportedly adding a two-seam fastball to his repertoire, which should improve his results against right-handed hitters (a vital skill in a bullpen that already includes two other left-handers). Mijares came to camp looking trimmer this year; if healthy, he should be a quality late-inning option throughout the season.
Kevin Slowey
2010 Stats: 155.2 IP, 13-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 116/29 K/BB
Setting expectations for Slowey the reliever is not easy. We know that he's a good pitcher, and it's not hard to see his outstanding control being a real asset in the bullpen. Then again, he's made only four relief appearances in his major-league career after serving as a starter almost exclusively throughout the minors, so this is new territory for the righty. How will he handle being called on to throw in tight late-game situations? Will pitching in one-inning stints allow him to add a few ticks to his 89-mph fastball? Will his secondary stuff be maximized? Slowey certainly has the potential to succeed in relief, but like many other members of this unit he's a question mark.
Glen Perkins
2010 Stats: 21.2 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 14/5 K/BB
As a 28-year-old who's out of options and hasn't been effective since the 2008 season, Perkins seemed like a lock to be non-tendered this offseason. Instead, the Twins gave him a contract and now a spot in their bullpen. The team has cited Perkins' solid performance while pitching in relief last September as a key reason for retaining him, but -- even looking beyond the fact that opponents hit .326 against him during that minuscule 12-inning sample -- this seems awfully short-sighted. Perkins doesn't miss bats, has been bad against lefties and has always been a guy who's allowed a lot of base runners. I don't get it.
Dusty Hughes
2010 Stats: 56.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 34/24 K/BB
The Twins were very impressed when they faced Hughes as a left-handed reliever for the Royals last year. It's not hard to see why; when playing against Minnesota the southpaw allowed only three runs on nine hits over 13 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he'll no longer be able to face the Twins and against all other opponents Hughes posted a 4.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 28-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 43 innings. In other words, he wasn't very good, and it was his first extended look in the majors as a 28-year-old who'd been fairly unspectacular in the minors. Dedicating two spots in a questionable bullpen to pitchers like Hughes and Perkins strikes me as an extremely bizarre decision.
Jeff Manship
2010 Stats: 29 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 21/6 K/BB
Rounding out the bullpen at the onset of the 2010 season will be Manship, a guy who spent some time there last season. In his big-league career, the right-hander has posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, which aren't exactly the kind of numbers that inspire late-inning confidence. Manship has been quite hittable ever since reaching reaching the highest levels (he's allowed 260 hits over 209 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors) and unless that changes he won't be particularly useful. It will be interesting to see how Gardenhire elects to utilize him.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Insanity
In the wake of the Twins' quick exit from the playoffs last year, as I prepared myself for the offseason by looking through the team's financial particulars, I came to one clear conclusion: "The Twins would be insane to bring back Matt Capps."
In my blog post discussing the subject, I surmised that the Twins and arbitrators would overemphasize the value of Capps' saves, comparing him to other closers with similar totals. I concluded that "it's not hard to imagine Capps at least doubling his $3.5 million salary in 2011."
Of course, there was little doubt that the Twins would be bringing back Capps. They obviously overvalue the heck out of him, otherwise they wouldn't have traded away a top prospect to have him come in and close when they already had a guy who was adequately handling the job.
So I wasn't at all surprised when I heard that the Twins had tendered Capps a contract at the early-December deadline. The decision created a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach that kept growing and growing until the inevitable news came through yesterday: the Twins and the arbitration-eligible Capps have agreed on a one-year, $7.15 million deal.
In justifying the move on ESPN 1500 yesterday afternoon, after Phil Mackey astutely pointed out that the team could have kept two of its other departed relievers by not tendering Capps a contract, general manager Bill Smith said that the Twins want a good closing option should Joe Nathan be unable to fill the role. As if Capps -- who was non-tendered by the Pirates following a terrible campaign just a year ago -- is all that different of a pitcher from Jesse Crain ($4M next year), or Jon Rauch ($3.5M).
The Twins are talking out of both sides of their mouths with regards to Nathan. On the one hand they claim that they're very optimistic about his recovery, to the point where they apparently won't carry any trustworthy setup men other than Capps and Mijares. On the other hand, they're spending over $7 million on insurance at the closer position, where they've already got $11.25 million invested in what has been illuminated as a mistake of a contract. (I was on board with that extension myself at the time, but let's face it, losing Nathan had virtually no effect on the team's outcome last year.)
Meanwhile they refuse to spend $5.8 million -- the amount in J.J. Hardy's new one-year deal with the Orioles -- on insurance at shortstop. Even if you don't think Hardy should start, he's a drastically better backup plan than anything they have and it seems at least as risky to count on the perpetually underachieving Alexi Casilla to be a competent starting shortstop as it does to count on Nathan to close.
In what world is closer a more valuable and irreplaceable position than starting shortstop? And how would the Twins not be more aware of this than anyone? They've cycled through bad shortstops faster than the Vikings go through quarterbacks over the past decade but they've had no trouble turning solid setup men like Eddie Guardado and Nathan into All-Star closers.
What's that saying about insanity and trying the same thing over and over again while expecting different results?
In my blog post discussing the subject, I surmised that the Twins and arbitrators would overemphasize the value of Capps' saves, comparing him to other closers with similar totals. I concluded that "it's not hard to imagine Capps at least doubling his $3.5 million salary in 2011."
Of course, there was little doubt that the Twins would be bringing back Capps. They obviously overvalue the heck out of him, otherwise they wouldn't have traded away a top prospect to have him come in and close when they already had a guy who was adequately handling the job.
So I wasn't at all surprised when I heard that the Twins had tendered Capps a contract at the early-December deadline. The decision created a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach that kept growing and growing until the inevitable news came through yesterday: the Twins and the arbitration-eligible Capps have agreed on a one-year, $7.15 million deal.
In justifying the move on ESPN 1500 yesterday afternoon, after Phil Mackey astutely pointed out that the team could have kept two of its other departed relievers by not tendering Capps a contract, general manager Bill Smith said that the Twins want a good closing option should Joe Nathan be unable to fill the role. As if Capps -- who was non-tendered by the Pirates following a terrible campaign just a year ago -- is all that different of a pitcher from Jesse Crain ($4M next year), or Jon Rauch ($3.5M).
The Twins are talking out of both sides of their mouths with regards to Nathan. On the one hand they claim that they're very optimistic about his recovery, to the point where they apparently won't carry any trustworthy setup men other than Capps and Mijares. On the other hand, they're spending over $7 million on insurance at the closer position, where they've already got $11.25 million invested in what has been illuminated as a mistake of a contract. (I was on board with that extension myself at the time, but let's face it, losing Nathan had virtually no effect on the team's outcome last year.)
Meanwhile they refuse to spend $5.8 million -- the amount in J.J. Hardy's new one-year deal with the Orioles -- on insurance at shortstop. Even if you don't think Hardy should start, he's a drastically better backup plan than anything they have and it seems at least as risky to count on the perpetually underachieving Alexi Casilla to be a competent starting shortstop as it does to count on Nathan to close.
In what world is closer a more valuable and irreplaceable position than starting shortstop? And how would the Twins not be more aware of this than anyone? They've cycled through bad shortstops faster than the Vikings go through quarterbacks over the past decade but they've had no trouble turning solid setup men like Eddie Guardado and Nathan into All-Star closers.
What's that saying about insanity and trying the same thing over and over again while expecting different results?
Monday, October 18, 2010
Cut the Capps
When the Twins traded for Matt Capps at the trade deadline, I didn't hate the move.
I didn't love it, but since the reaction to the swap among Twins fans was overwhelmingly negative, I spent a lot of time defending it. Despite his success in the first half, the Twins saw something in Jon Rauch that led them to believe he'd soon become a liability in the closer role (his subsequent slump suggested they were right), so they wanted a proven commodity. Sure, the Twins overvalued Capps' standing as an established closer and gave up a better prospect than they maybe should have, but I accepted the move for three principal reasons: 1) I don't think they could have gotten a much better player for Ramos; 2) in my mind, the probability that the team will heavily regret dealing Ramos when they did is quite low; and 3) I liked the statement that the move made.
It was that last one that I felt most strongly about. We're so used to seeing the Twins play it conservative at the deadline, protecting their future assets at the expense of bettering their present chances. Now, they were dealing one of their top prospects and taking on significant salary with the hopes of ensuring that a bullpen derailment would not impede their budding momentum. Very often has a prospect panned out to be less than we'd hoped; very often, also, have we looked back at the end of a season and said, "Maybe that one extra piece at the deadline would have made the difference."
So the Twins made their bold move. But they did so for another reason, one that they were perfectly transparent about the time, but that I didn't spend much time thinking about then.
The Twins would be insane to bring back Matt Capps.
He's under team control for 2011 because he's entering his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. He was non-tendered by the Pirates following a crummy 2009 campaign (5.80 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .324 opponents batting average, just 27 saves in 32 chances), and he earned only a modest $1.2 million raise on his $2.3 million '09 salary when the Nationals signed him this season because of it.
This year, however, Capps put up some of the finest numbers of his career, and scored big in areas that arbitrators put a lot of weight into. Specifically, those areas are ERA (2.47) and saves (42, fifth-best in MLB). While I certainly don't think he's as bad a pitcher as many opponents of his acquisition make him out to be, Capps is at best merely a good reliever and those numbers unquestionably overstate his value.
Unfortunately, that's the type of lens through which arbitration judges are likely to view Capps. The market has been established. For instance, the Giants have Brian Wilson locked up for $8.5 million in 2012, which would be his last year of arbitration, and that contract was signed before he notched an MLB-leading 48 saves this year. Jonathan Papelbon just earned over $9 million in his second year of arbitration. Looking at these numbers, it's not hard to imagine Capps at least doubling his $3.5 million salary in 2011.
Meanwhile, relievers of similar quality to Capps who don't carry the closer label tend to make only a couple million per year. And regardless of how you weigh the value of having an established guy in the closer spot, there's a good chance the Twins won't be using him in that role with Joe Nathan returning.
In the best case scenario, they'd be paying Capps upper-echelon closer money (which they're already paying Nathan, to a higher degree) to be a solid setup man. If you're going to spend that kind of money on a guy who'd fill a setup role and serve as an insurance policy for Nathan, you're much wiser using it to bring back Brian Fuentes who figures to be only slightly more expensive if at all. He's a better pitcher and more useful if Nathan can close. Or you can save a few million and take your pick from the deep pool of strong relievers hitting the market this winter.
I have spent enough energy defending Capps. He served his duty very effectively after being acquired and was a fine -- if ultimately meaningless -- addition to the Twins this season. If he's back next year at $7 million, though, his acquisition will ultimately do more harm than good.
I didn't love it, but since the reaction to the swap among Twins fans was overwhelmingly negative, I spent a lot of time defending it. Despite his success in the first half, the Twins saw something in Jon Rauch that led them to believe he'd soon become a liability in the closer role (his subsequent slump suggested they were right), so they wanted a proven commodity. Sure, the Twins overvalued Capps' standing as an established closer and gave up a better prospect than they maybe should have, but I accepted the move for three principal reasons: 1) I don't think they could have gotten a much better player for Ramos; 2) in my mind, the probability that the team will heavily regret dealing Ramos when they did is quite low; and 3) I liked the statement that the move made.
It was that last one that I felt most strongly about. We're so used to seeing the Twins play it conservative at the deadline, protecting their future assets at the expense of bettering their present chances. Now, they were dealing one of their top prospects and taking on significant salary with the hopes of ensuring that a bullpen derailment would not impede their budding momentum. Very often has a prospect panned out to be less than we'd hoped; very often, also, have we looked back at the end of a season and said, "Maybe that one extra piece at the deadline would have made the difference."
So the Twins made their bold move. But they did so for another reason, one that they were perfectly transparent about the time, but that I didn't spend much time thinking about then.
"Having him for 2011 was critical," [Bill] Smith said. "We would not have had interest in having him for just two months."As you'll find when reading through your copy of the Offseason GM Handbook, the bullpen becomes a quagmire of tricky decisions for the Twins' front office this winter. I didn't need the headache while focusing on the Twins' 2010 season, so I hadn't spent much time thinking about it. Now that I've turned my gaze to the offseason and started breaking down the numbers, I've reached one inescapable conclusion:
The Twins would be insane to bring back Matt Capps.
He's under team control for 2011 because he's entering his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. He was non-tendered by the Pirates following a crummy 2009 campaign (5.80 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .324 opponents batting average, just 27 saves in 32 chances), and he earned only a modest $1.2 million raise on his $2.3 million '09 salary when the Nationals signed him this season because of it.
This year, however, Capps put up some of the finest numbers of his career, and scored big in areas that arbitrators put a lot of weight into. Specifically, those areas are ERA (2.47) and saves (42, fifth-best in MLB). While I certainly don't think he's as bad a pitcher as many opponents of his acquisition make him out to be, Capps is at best merely a good reliever and those numbers unquestionably overstate his value.
Unfortunately, that's the type of lens through which arbitration judges are likely to view Capps. The market has been established. For instance, the Giants have Brian Wilson locked up for $8.5 million in 2012, which would be his last year of arbitration, and that contract was signed before he notched an MLB-leading 48 saves this year. Jonathan Papelbon just earned over $9 million in his second year of arbitration. Looking at these numbers, it's not hard to imagine Capps at least doubling his $3.5 million salary in 2011.
Meanwhile, relievers of similar quality to Capps who don't carry the closer label tend to make only a couple million per year. And regardless of how you weigh the value of having an established guy in the closer spot, there's a good chance the Twins won't be using him in that role with Joe Nathan returning.
In the best case scenario, they'd be paying Capps upper-echelon closer money (which they're already paying Nathan, to a higher degree) to be a solid setup man. If you're going to spend that kind of money on a guy who'd fill a setup role and serve as an insurance policy for Nathan, you're much wiser using it to bring back Brian Fuentes who figures to be only slightly more expensive if at all. He's a better pitcher and more useful if Nathan can close. Or you can save a few million and take your pick from the deep pool of strong relievers hitting the market this winter.
I have spent enough energy defending Capps. He served his duty very effectively after being acquired and was a fine -- if ultimately meaningless -- addition to the Twins this season. If he's back next year at $7 million, though, his acquisition will ultimately do more harm than good.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
The Bullpen Ace
Perhaps one of the most under-appreciated storylines in this wonderful season for the Twins has been the dramatic turnaround of Jesse Crain. His performance in the early weeks of the season had most Twins fans clamoring for his dismissal, but since seeing his ERA swell to a season-high 7.31 on May 18, Crain has been one of the league's most dominant relievers.
In 46 2/3 innings of work since that date, the right-hander has allowed only 27 hits, including 22 singles and just one home run. He's struck out 46 batters and walked 18. He's been charged with only five earned runs -- good for a 0.96 ERA. I never would have expected to say this back in mid-May, but right now Crain is pretty much automatic.
His season highlight came on Tuesday night. With the Twins seeking to bury the dagger on a White Sox club that would be effectively eliminated from contention with a loss, Crain entered the game in an extremely sticky situation. The Sox, trailing by one in the bottom of the seventh, had put both of their first two hitters on against Matt Guerrier and were heading into the heart of their lineup with nobody out.
Alexei Ramirez moved both runners into scoring position with a sacrifice bunt. Crain then walked Alex Rios, loading the bases with one out for Chicago's No. 4 and 5 hitters. It's a nightmare scenario for any pitcher, but Crain employed his devastating slider/fastball combo to strike out both Paul Konerko and Manny Ramirez, ending Chicago's threat. The Twins tacked five runs to their lead in the next inning and slammed the door on any realistic postseason hopes for the White Sox.
It's quite clear that Crain is the Twins' best reliever at this point, and that has some folks wondering why the team acquired Matt Capps to fill the closer role when they could have simply had Crain and Jon Rauch swap roles.
It's a fair question, but I tend to think Crain's current role is perfect, and Tuesday night's game illustrated exactly why.
Managers in today's game (and Ron Gardenhire especially) tend to use their closers in a strict, rigid manner. That seventh-inning spot was the perfect time for Gardenhire to call upon his most dominant reliever, but I don't think I'm going out on a limb in saying that Gardy never would have gone to his closer in that spot. How many times have we seen Joe Nathan called upon in the seventh inning of a game?
If Crain had been labeled closer, he'd be pigeon-holed into pitching the ninth inning regardless of circumstances. In Tuesday night's game, he may have never gotten the chance to throw a meaningful pitch, because against a lesser reliever (like Rauch, who would have probably been the guy if he and Crain had simply switched duties) the middle of the Sox lineup might have broken the game open in that seventh inning.
It's for that reason that I'm persistently vexed by the way managers tend to limit the impact of their best reliever just because he tends to carry that "closer" label. For now, though, I'll just be glad not to have to worry about it with Crain. He's the bullpen's ace, ready to be called upon when the game is on the line and the opposing team's best hitters are in a position to do damage.
It's in that role that Crain can be most impactful, more so even than Capps, regardless of whether or not he racks up a bunch of saves.
In 46 2/3 innings of work since that date, the right-hander has allowed only 27 hits, including 22 singles and just one home run. He's struck out 46 batters and walked 18. He's been charged with only five earned runs -- good for a 0.96 ERA. I never would have expected to say this back in mid-May, but right now Crain is pretty much automatic.
His season highlight came on Tuesday night. With the Twins seeking to bury the dagger on a White Sox club that would be effectively eliminated from contention with a loss, Crain entered the game in an extremely sticky situation. The Sox, trailing by one in the bottom of the seventh, had put both of their first two hitters on against Matt Guerrier and were heading into the heart of their lineup with nobody out.
Alexei Ramirez moved both runners into scoring position with a sacrifice bunt. Crain then walked Alex Rios, loading the bases with one out for Chicago's No. 4 and 5 hitters. It's a nightmare scenario for any pitcher, but Crain employed his devastating slider/fastball combo to strike out both Paul Konerko and Manny Ramirez, ending Chicago's threat. The Twins tacked five runs to their lead in the next inning and slammed the door on any realistic postseason hopes for the White Sox.
It's quite clear that Crain is the Twins' best reliever at this point, and that has some folks wondering why the team acquired Matt Capps to fill the closer role when they could have simply had Crain and Jon Rauch swap roles.
It's a fair question, but I tend to think Crain's current role is perfect, and Tuesday night's game illustrated exactly why.
Managers in today's game (and Ron Gardenhire especially) tend to use their closers in a strict, rigid manner. That seventh-inning spot was the perfect time for Gardenhire to call upon his most dominant reliever, but I don't think I'm going out on a limb in saying that Gardy never would have gone to his closer in that spot. How many times have we seen Joe Nathan called upon in the seventh inning of a game?
If Crain had been labeled closer, he'd be pigeon-holed into pitching the ninth inning regardless of circumstances. In Tuesday night's game, he may have never gotten the chance to throw a meaningful pitch, because against a lesser reliever (like Rauch, who would have probably been the guy if he and Crain had simply switched duties) the middle of the Sox lineup might have broken the game open in that seventh inning.
It's for that reason that I'm persistently vexed by the way managers tend to limit the impact of their best reliever just because he tends to carry that "closer" label. For now, though, I'll just be glad not to have to worry about it with Crain. He's the bullpen's ace, ready to be called upon when the game is on the line and the opposing team's best hitters are in a position to do damage.
It's in that role that Crain can be most impactful, more so even than Capps, regardless of whether or not he racks up a bunch of saves.
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
Tuesday Notes
Happy Tuesday everyone! I hope you all enjoyed the holiday weekend (I know I did, since for me it was an extended five-day stay-cation), but now it's back to work. So let's get caught up with some notes.
* In beating the Royals yesterday, the Twins notched a victory for the ninth time in their past 11 games. Unfortunately, they've been unable to create any separation in the standings during that excellent stretch because the second-place White Sox have been on fire themselves. Chicago came back to beat the Tigers yesterday, marking the seventh straight victory for Ozzie and Co. Like the Twins, the White Sox have won nine of their past 11.
Last Monday, when the Sox were at their lowest point of the season, I wrote that they shouldn't be counted out because they were a streaky team stuck in a slump that could snap at any time. At that point, they'd just finished dropping a series to the Yankees that pushed them 4 1/2 games out of first, but since I posted that article the White Sox haven't lost and they've actually gained ground on a Twins club that's gone 6-1.
As the season winds down, an upcoming three-game series between the Twins and White Sox in Chicago begins to look increasingly pivotal. It commences a week from today and, depending on what happens in the six games between here and there, it could either give the White Sox a chance to vault the Twins with a home sweep or the Twins a chance to effectively bury the South Siders with only 16 games remaining afterward.
I'm reminded of a somewhat similar situation (with roles reversed) two years ago. Minnesota sat 2 1/2 games behind Chicago in the AL Central standings when they welcomed the White Sox to the Metrodome for a late September series. In a thrilling series capped by an epic 10th-inning walk-off in the finale, the Twins swept the Sox and found themselves in first place by the end of the three-game set.
Hopefully this year's Twins squad will be mindful as this series in Chicago looms.
* Matt Capps can't seem to get a break from the fans around here. For whatever reason -- perhaps because they feel like the Twins got stiffed in the trade that brought him here -- many of the Twins faithful that I interact with continue express serious doubts about Capps. Any time he allows a base runner or two in an outing, it seems that Twitter explodes with venom.
That was certainly the case on Sunday afternoon when Capps entered and allowed three hits and a walk to nearly cough up a gift-wrapped sweep-clinching victory against the Rangers. But, like he typically has since coming over, Capps got the job done. In fact, the Twins have yet to lose a game that their new closer has entered with a lead.
Ultimately, that's the barometer by which he should be judged. His saves may not always be pretty, but that's because he's merely a good reliever, not an elite shut-down guy. People should have stopped expecting the latter back in March when the Twins announced Joe Nathan's season-ending surgery.
Yesterday, Capps delivered a perfect ninth inning to seal a one-run victory over the Royals. That's the result he's usually going to get, even if he doesn't always get there all that cleanly. He's obviously not one of the game's great closers, but he's clearly a better option than Rauch -- who continues to look terrible -- and while many would prefer to see Jesse Crain taking care of the ninth, let's not forget that he's a guy with a history of bad slumps.
The Twins wanted a closer with an established track record, and they got one. So far, it's worked out just fine.
* I was delighted to see the Twins call up prospect Ben Revere over the weekend. Revere, a 22-year-old selected in the first round of the 2007 draft, has become one of my favorite stories in the organization.
A top prospect ever since bursting onto the scene with a .325 average in rookie ball after being drafted, Revere was enjoying a successful first season at the Double-A level when he was hit in the face with a pitch in early August, fracturing his eye socket. At the time, his season was thought to be done, and one couldn't be blamed for wondering whether his game would be affected by the traumatic incident.
Revere surprised many by returning to the New Britain lineup less than a month after taking the pitch, and he showed no fear at the plate, batting .382 in eight games. Now, he'll get the opportunity to help a major-league club make a push for a division title in September.
I don't know how much we'll see of him over the next few weeks, but I'll certainly be rooting for Revere every time he gets a chance to contribute. With his blazing speed, he's capable of providing us with some exciting moments.
* I didn't think I could be any more impressed with Jim Thome. Then, yesterday, he hit a home run that deflected off the top of the highest flag pole beyond the right field wall in Target Field.
It was the decisive blast in a 5-4 victory, and part of a 2-for-3 day that pushed the 40-year-old slugger's OPS into quadruple digits. His mark now sits at 1.020; only fives times in his illustrious career has Thome finished higher. He's averaging one home run per every 13.9 at-bats, which is almost exactly in line with his career rate of 13.6. Simply put, while it almost defies logic, Thome doesn't seem to have really lost anything at all.
I've said this before, but with the Vikings season upon us, I'm reminded of how fortunate we Minnesota sports fans have been over the past year to have the privilege of watching a couple of all-time greats in their respective sports playing at their very best despite being in the fourth decade of life. Especially considering that both legendary men had spent much of their prior careers playing for hated rivals.
I'm talking, of course, about Thome and Brett Favre. Much like with Favre, I'll bet we have plenty of folks clamoring for an encore to Thome's amazing performance.
* Today, Shawn Berg is celebrating the one-year anniversary of his "On the Road" blog, which features great Twins takes and eyewitness accounts of minor-league affiliate games (he did a nice report on Kyle Gibson's Triple-A debut back in the middle of August, for instance). Please do me a favor and go pay Shawn's site a visit. He's even giving a Rod Carew figurine away to his 1,000th visitor today!
* If some of these note themes sound familiar to you, it might because I've probably mused about all of them at one point or another on my Twitter page. I've basically started using Twitter as a stream of consciousness to post any Twins-related thoughts I have throughout the day (many of which become the seeds for lengthier blog posts), and I've also found it to be a great tool to interact with other fans. So if you've got an account and you haven't already, I'd love it if you gave me a follow and joined the conversation!
* In beating the Royals yesterday, the Twins notched a victory for the ninth time in their past 11 games. Unfortunately, they've been unable to create any separation in the standings during that excellent stretch because the second-place White Sox have been on fire themselves. Chicago came back to beat the Tigers yesterday, marking the seventh straight victory for Ozzie and Co. Like the Twins, the White Sox have won nine of their past 11.
Last Monday, when the Sox were at their lowest point of the season, I wrote that they shouldn't be counted out because they were a streaky team stuck in a slump that could snap at any time. At that point, they'd just finished dropping a series to the Yankees that pushed them 4 1/2 games out of first, but since I posted that article the White Sox haven't lost and they've actually gained ground on a Twins club that's gone 6-1.
As the season winds down, an upcoming three-game series between the Twins and White Sox in Chicago begins to look increasingly pivotal. It commences a week from today and, depending on what happens in the six games between here and there, it could either give the White Sox a chance to vault the Twins with a home sweep or the Twins a chance to effectively bury the South Siders with only 16 games remaining afterward.
I'm reminded of a somewhat similar situation (with roles reversed) two years ago. Minnesota sat 2 1/2 games behind Chicago in the AL Central standings when they welcomed the White Sox to the Metrodome for a late September series. In a thrilling series capped by an epic 10th-inning walk-off in the finale, the Twins swept the Sox and found themselves in first place by the end of the three-game set.
Hopefully this year's Twins squad will be mindful as this series in Chicago looms.
* Matt Capps can't seem to get a break from the fans around here. For whatever reason -- perhaps because they feel like the Twins got stiffed in the trade that brought him here -- many of the Twins faithful that I interact with continue express serious doubts about Capps. Any time he allows a base runner or two in an outing, it seems that Twitter explodes with venom.
That was certainly the case on Sunday afternoon when Capps entered and allowed three hits and a walk to nearly cough up a gift-wrapped sweep-clinching victory against the Rangers. But, like he typically has since coming over, Capps got the job done. In fact, the Twins have yet to lose a game that their new closer has entered with a lead.
Ultimately, that's the barometer by which he should be judged. His saves may not always be pretty, but that's because he's merely a good reliever, not an elite shut-down guy. People should have stopped expecting the latter back in March when the Twins announced Joe Nathan's season-ending surgery.
Yesterday, Capps delivered a perfect ninth inning to seal a one-run victory over the Royals. That's the result he's usually going to get, even if he doesn't always get there all that cleanly. He's obviously not one of the game's great closers, but he's clearly a better option than Rauch -- who continues to look terrible -- and while many would prefer to see Jesse Crain taking care of the ninth, let's not forget that he's a guy with a history of bad slumps.
The Twins wanted a closer with an established track record, and they got one. So far, it's worked out just fine.
* I was delighted to see the Twins call up prospect Ben Revere over the weekend. Revere, a 22-year-old selected in the first round of the 2007 draft, has become one of my favorite stories in the organization.
A top prospect ever since bursting onto the scene with a .325 average in rookie ball after being drafted, Revere was enjoying a successful first season at the Double-A level when he was hit in the face with a pitch in early August, fracturing his eye socket. At the time, his season was thought to be done, and one couldn't be blamed for wondering whether his game would be affected by the traumatic incident.
Revere surprised many by returning to the New Britain lineup less than a month after taking the pitch, and he showed no fear at the plate, batting .382 in eight games. Now, he'll get the opportunity to help a major-league club make a push for a division title in September.
I don't know how much we'll see of him over the next few weeks, but I'll certainly be rooting for Revere every time he gets a chance to contribute. With his blazing speed, he's capable of providing us with some exciting moments.
* I didn't think I could be any more impressed with Jim Thome. Then, yesterday, he hit a home run that deflected off the top of the highest flag pole beyond the right field wall in Target Field.
It was the decisive blast in a 5-4 victory, and part of a 2-for-3 day that pushed the 40-year-old slugger's OPS into quadruple digits. His mark now sits at 1.020; only fives times in his illustrious career has Thome finished higher. He's averaging one home run per every 13.9 at-bats, which is almost exactly in line with his career rate of 13.6. Simply put, while it almost defies logic, Thome doesn't seem to have really lost anything at all.
I've said this before, but with the Vikings season upon us, I'm reminded of how fortunate we Minnesota sports fans have been over the past year to have the privilege of watching a couple of all-time greats in their respective sports playing at their very best despite being in the fourth decade of life. Especially considering that both legendary men had spent much of their prior careers playing for hated rivals.
I'm talking, of course, about Thome and Brett Favre. Much like with Favre, I'll bet we have plenty of folks clamoring for an encore to Thome's amazing performance.
* Today, Shawn Berg is celebrating the one-year anniversary of his "On the Road" blog, which features great Twins takes and eyewitness accounts of minor-league affiliate games (he did a nice report on Kyle Gibson's Triple-A debut back in the middle of August, for instance). Please do me a favor and go pay Shawn's site a visit. He's even giving a Rod Carew figurine away to his 1,000th visitor today!
* If some of these note themes sound familiar to you, it might because I've probably mused about all of them at one point or another on my Twitter page. I've basically started using Twitter as a stream of consciousness to post any Twins-related thoughts I have throughout the day (many of which become the seeds for lengthier blog posts), and I've also found it to be a great tool to interact with other fans. So if you've got an account and you haven't already, I'd love it if you gave me a follow and joined the conversation!
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