ZOOM! Twins Add Powerful, But Fragile, Bullpen Arm

For Twins fans, the image is tough to forget.

Joel Zumaya was pitching to Delmon Young in the eighth inning of a late June game at Target Field. On a full count, the right-hander reared back and unleashed a 99 mph fastball, which Young fouled off.

It was immediately obvious that something went very wrong with Zumaya on the pitch, as he quickly clutched his right elbow and collapsed to the ground in extreme pain. His right hand was shaking violently as his coaches and teammates huddled around him near the pitcher's mound.

As it would turn out, Zumaya suffered an elbow fracture on the delivery, specifically to the olecranon, which is the top-most point of the ulna (shown to the right). It was the latest in a long line of arm injuries for the righty – the nature of the beast when your game is built around hurling triple-digit heaters – and it's kept him off the field for the last year and a half.

Zumaya can't have fond memories of Target Field, but it looks like he'll return to pitch at the site of his most gruesome injury, as he's reportedly agreed to terms with the Twins on a one-year deal. Pending a physical – which is no simple formality in this case – the reliever will earn a base salary of $800,000 plus incentives to serve as a much-needed right-handed power arm at the back end of the bullpen.

While auditioning in front of an army of scouts back in December, Zumaya was reportedly registering between 93-96 mph with decent command. That's a step back from his previous elite heat (his fastball was averaging 99.3 mph in 2010 before he went down) but it would still qualify him as the hardest thrower on the Twins' staff, and he'll likely add some ticks in spring training if he can stay healthy.

That's a big "if," obviously, as the newly added setup man will join a lengthy list of health question marks in Ft. Myers. Still, Zumaya is only 27, and broken bones tend to heal more reliably than torn ligaments. If the fireballer can finally make his way through a full season with good health – something he hasn't done since his rookie year in 2006 – he could provide a huge boost from the right side in the late innings.

And if things don't work out, the Twins won't be out much money, as his deal is non-guaranteed and his base salary is barely more than the club would've paid to keep Jose Mijares around. This is the kind of low-risk, high-upside signing that Terry Ryan should be looking to make whenever he can, especially with the payroll restrictions that have been imposed upon him.

The fact remains, though, that if Zumaya's arm fails him as it has in five straight seasons, Alex Burnett stands to be the top fallback option. We'll see if Ryan is done shopping for relief help.

Cuddyer and Priorities

The Twins made their signing of Josh Willingham official yesterday, finalizing a three-year, $21 million deal with the veteran outfielder.

The move rules out a return to Minnesota for long-time franchise staple Michael Cuddyer, who'd been viewed as an alternative option to fill the same need.

Or does it?

While the Twins' interest in Willingham and Cuddyer had largely been framed as an either/or scenario over the first couple months of the offseason, there's been growing speculation that the club may consider bringing Cuddyer back even with Willingham locked in.

This strikes me as bizarre. It's not hard to see the appeal in a lineup that includes both bats, but the Twins are working with limited resources -- Terry Ryan would have to stretch the budget past ownership's desired target of $100 million to bring Cuddyer back -- and they haven't yet begun to address their flimsy pitching corps.

In fact, all the team has really done so far is subtract from a staff that finished second-to-last in the majors in ERA. It's tough to see how signing Cuddyer would leave much flexibility to add anything beyond the types of marginal minor-league arms they've already brought into the mix.

Not only would signing Cuddyer show a lopsided emphasis on offense versus pitching, it would also signal that the front office is focusing far too much on the present versus the future. It's great that Ryan and Co. are intent on righting the ship in short order, but they need to be rebuilding with an eye toward the organization's long-term health as well. Forfeiting a pair of high draft picks while committing $45 million to a pair of 33-year-old corner outfielders seems extremely short-sighted.

There's an inherent risk in making multi-year commitments to players that are aging into their mid-30s. Fortunately, that risk is mitigated in Willingham's case because $7 million annually is very reasonable for a player of his pedigree, which is why this deal has to be looked at as a slam dunk success for the front office.

By signing Cuddyer in addition to Willingham though, the Twins would be doubling their risk. Having both outfielders aboard would certainly strengthen the lineup in the short term, but the long-term ramifications are troubling and if the front office is willing to cough up an additional $24 million for a Cuddyer contract, it sure seems like that money could be put to better use on pitching.

[UPDATE: Such fears can be put to rest. Cuddyer signed a three-year, $31.5 million contract with the Rockies today.]

Capps Outrage is Excessive

When it was officially announced on Monday that the Twins had reached agreement with Matt Capps on a one-year, $4.5M deal, the reaction among fans was about as venomous as I've ever seen. My Twitter timeline lit up with angry, expletive-laden tirades. Even some of the most mild-mannered fans were directing profane vitriol toward Terry Ryan. You'd think the Twins hired Jerry Sandusky to be their ninth-inning man.

To be honest, I'm having a hard time understanding why some fans are soaked with such heavy disdain for Capps. He's a generally effective closer who had a bad run of outings during a lost season. The right-hander was certainly tough to watch at times over the summer, but in the grand scheme, he was a minor contributor to the club's woes.

In my mind, Capps has three things working against him with the Target Field Faithful, two of which are completely out of his control:

1) He's not Wilson Ramos.

Capps' career with the Twins began on a sour note, as he was acquired in a lopsided trade that was widely panned at the time and only looks worse in hindsight.  This past season, while Joe Mauer's future at catcher was being cast in doubt, fans were forced to watch Capps blow nine saves while the player he was traded for, Wilson Ramos, enjoyed a successful rookie campaign in Washington.

There's no doubt that the Twins would be in better shape right now had that trade never happened, but it did. At this point it should have no bearing on our assessment of Capps.

2) He's not Joe Nathan.

Ryan did such a phenomenal job in identifying and acquiring Nathan that it seems he actually set the bar way too high for himself. In six seasons with the Twins before suffering a torn elbow ligament, Nathan was never off. Even at his worst, he was still one of the league's most dominant and reliable relief arms. There's a reason why many regarded him as the best closer in the game outside of Mariano Rivera during that span.

Capps is certainly a far cry from that level of excellence, but this doesn't mean he's bad. Like the vast majority of relievers in the major leagues, he's susceptible to down years, and he had one in 2011. More often than not, though, he's been perfectly adequate as a late-inning bullpen weapon. At 28, he's still in the heart of his prime.

One other thing: In spite of all his struggles this year, Capps had the second-best qualified WHIP on the team behind Scott Baker, allowing fewer base runners on average than Glen Perkins.

3) He pitched through an injury this year.

In radio and print interviews, Twins' coaches and front-office personnel have clearly been going out of their way this offseason to convince people that Capps' struggles were largely the result of a right wrist injury he was pitching through.

As I wrote a couple weeks ago, a close look at the numbers indicates that these claims are valid. At no point in Capps' career has he had nearly as much trouble striking people out; if he's healthy again in 2012 I suspect we'll see a return to normalcy in K-rate, which would almost surely result in improved numbers across the board.

I don't necessarily think Capps was doing the Twins any favors by pitching through his wrist tendinitis this year, but isn't it exactly the kind of thing most fans wanted to see more of? Sure, Capps was garbage when he took the mound for a period of time, but at least he was out there pitching.

On top of that, he took accountability for his failures, telling reporters "I'd boo me too" when the hometown fans turned against him.

To me, Capps' bum rap seems almost totally unwarranted. I don't love his new contract -- $4.5 million is on the very upper end of what I'd be willing to pay him and the club forfeited an extra draft pick by re-signing him -- but there's really no such thing as a bad one-year deal and locking him in at a reasonable enough rate shores up the back end of the bullpen while enabling Ryan to turn his attention elsewhere.

Twins Sign Jamey Carroll to Man Short

The Twins took their first step toward addressing a decimated infield today, signing free agent Jamey Carroll. According to Ken Rosenthal's sources, the plan is for Carroll to become the team's everyday shortstop.

My stance has been that the Twins' approach this offseason ought to involve finding competent stopgaps that could potentially aid a return to contention in 2012 if things break right, but won't break the bank or require significant long-term commitments. Carroll fits that bill about as well as Ramon Santiago or Nick Punto, who were the players I suggested in my blueprint last month.

Although he'll turn 38 in February, the righty-swinging Carroll has been a consistent producer, finishing with an on-base percentage of .355 or higher in each of the past four seasons, with steady if unspectacular defense in the middle infield. Twins shortstops turned in a .292 OBP while frequently batting in the two-hole this year, so the upgrade potential here is massive. Though he has no power to speak of (he hasn't hit a home run since August of 2009), Carroll is a disciplined hitter, a good base runner and last year he turned in the second-lowest swinging strike percentage in the majors. He's the quintessential piranha.

It's unclear how the veteran's range will play at shortstop as he inches toward his fourth decade of life, but he's committed only nine errors in 1,000 innings at the position for the Dodgers over the past two years, making it easy to recognize his appeal to Terry Ryan and the Twins after a gaffe-filled 2011.

I will say that I've got some quibbles with the contract. The Twins reportedly are guaranteeing Carroll between $6-7 million on a two-year deal; that seems quite excessive for a middling 37-year-old who has earned less than $12 million in his big-league career up to this point. He's bound to start declining sometime, perhaps as soon as 2012, and if that's the case his contract will prove considerably more burdensome than a cheap one-year pact with a similar option (such as Punto).

Here's another thing that should be noted about Carroll: While his .368 on-base percentage over the past two years is impressive, nearly half of his at-bats came in front of the pitcher. If you want an idea of how hitting eighth in an NL lineup can inflate an OBP, consider that Punto posted a career-high .388 mark this year while getting a big chunk of his at-bats there for the Cardinals.

Still, at the end of the day, $3.5 million is a reasonable price for a starting shortstop, and if the Twins felt compelled to spend a little extra in order to ensure they got their guy so they can move on to addressing other needs -- such as pitcher and catcher -- I can live with that.

I do hope that the club isn't done adding veteran depth to the infield. I also hope that the money saved by acquiring a low-cost starter at shortstop is put to good use elsewhere.

Optimism vs. Pessimism

For several weeks now, the Twins and Carl Pavano have been reported by various to sources to be close to a deal. Yesterday, the two sides finally reached agreement on a two-year, $16.5 million contract.

People will see this deal how they want to see it.

The optimist will focus on Pavano's marvelous 2010 campaign, in which he won 17 games with a 3.75 ERA. The pessimist will recall that in 2009, Pavano posted a 5.10 ERA with very similar peripherals.

The optimist will point out how durable Pavano was last year, when he racked up 221 innings and seven complete games. The pessimist will note that the 35-year-old right-hander has a lengthy injury history -- 2010 marked just the third time in a 13-year career he's surpassed 200 innings.

The optimist will celebrate the Twins opening the wallet to re-sign a high-quality veteran player. The pessimist will bemoan the loss of two high draft picks that would have come to the organization had they allowed Pavano to sign elsewhere and opted for an inexpensive one-year deal with Brandon Webb, or Jeff Francis, or Chris Young, or a similar starter.

The optimist will marvel at what a great deal the Twins got on Pavano. He will average just $8.25 million over the next two seasons; that's an incredible bargain for a free agent pitcher coming off the kind of year he just had.

The pessimist will conclude that Pavano's willingness to settle for a relatively modest $16.5 million after all this time indicates that the rest of the league wanted nothing to do with him. Granted, his Type A status was an inhibitor, but teams will generally give up draft picks to sign a player they like. Pavano was the opposite of a hot commodity. Few teams openly expressed any interest in him and the general manager for one team that was connected to him through media reports felt the need to come out and publicly dispel those myths.

With Pavano joining Jim Thome, Matt Capps and others on a roster that is rapidly taking shape and will apparently feature very few new faces from outside the organization, the optimist will commend the Twins for trying to hold together as much of last year's 94-win club as their expanded payroll restrictions will allow.

The pessimist will wonder why they're simply concocting a weaker version of the same recipe that got them booted from the playoffs in three games last October.

Toward which side do you lean?

Jim Thome and the (Modest) Price of Insurance

There are a number of storylines relating to the Twins that will increasingly come into focus as we edge toward spring training. The answers to a handful of important questions will play a large part in dictating whether the season is a success or a failure. Will Tsuyoshi Nishioka be able to effectively transition his game from Japan to the States? Will Joe Nathan be the same dominant late-inning reliever he was prior to surgery? Can Francisco Liriano blossom into one of the league's premier aces?

All players worth following. But to me, no storyline looms larger than the recovery of Justin Morneau, who hasn't been able to comfortably swing a bat since sustaining a concussion on July 7 of last year. If Morneau experiences another setback in spring training or takes any kind of bump to the head while on the field, the Twins will be facing the very real possibility of having to play without him for an extended period of time.

Up until this week, the front office had done little to address such a scenario. But on Friday, the Twins announced that they'd reached agreement with Jim Thome on a one-year, $3 million deal. The contract, which includes incentives based on playing time, ensures that a great bat from 2010 will be back in the mix this year, and also supplies the Twins with some Morneau insurance.

As great as Thome was last year, he's not necessarily an ideal fit. He's 40 years old and incapable of playing any position, which limits flexibility in an already suspect bench. He's a left-handed hitter who's weaker against southpaws, so if Morneau's healthy Thome does nothing to offset the Twins' vulnerability to lefties at the DH spot. (This was an issue many fans were pointing their fingers at after the Yankees took a two-game ALDS lead on starts from CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte.) 

Of course, those concerns are secondary when you consider the price. It's impossible not to like this signing at the terms the Twins were able to get. Thome is guaranteed only $3 million, which is a pittance for a player who became one of the league's best hitters upon stepping into regular duty last season.

After Morneau went down on July 7, Thome batted .303/.438/.669 with 15 home runs and 31 RBI in 50 games. His production was a key reason the Twins were able to handily lock up the AL Central despite losing their best hitter amidst an MVP-caliber season.

That performance, along with his excellent clubhouse rapport and tremendous fan appeal, has already earned Thome his 2011 salary, in my mind. As a fan, it's always more enjoyable to watch a player who truly likes being here. This was evident in Thome's demeanor last season and in the fact that he reportedly turned down at least $1 million from Texas to return to Minnesota. He's a class act and it will be a pleasure to watch him blast home run No. 600 -- only 11 more to go -- in a Twins uniform.

As a bench bat, Thome will be a godsend for a group that features Drew Butera, Matt Tolbert and Jason Repko. But there is room for concern over what will happen if indeed Morneau -- or Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel, for that matter -- should go down and force Thome into regular duty.

One can't realistically expect the Hall of Fame slugger to repeat his spectacular performance from last year. It was one of the top five seasons of his career, and duplicating that at age 40 with a balky back could be an impossibly tall order. One miraculous season for an aging star does not promise another -- just ask Brett Favre.

I've noted before that the track record for historically elite sluggers after turning 40 is not particularly pretty. Even the all-time greats tend to decline swiftly at this age. Then again, there wasn't much precedent for what Thome did last year, and he claims his back is feeling good, so why doubt him? He might not be ideal in terms of balancing the roster, but he's a great hitter and a great guy at a bargain price. I've got a lot more peace of mind now than I did a week ago when it looked as though he might be leaning toward the Rangers.

That peace of mind came in handy this weekend as I read the final paragraphs a Joe Christensen story updating the progress of Morneau's recovery:

Smith has had multiple conversations with Morneau's doctor and noted a recent change in the recovery plan.

"In July, August and September, the protocol was if he had any concussion symptoms, he needed to back off," Smith said. "Now I think the doctors have given him a little more of the go-ahead. If you have mild symptoms, you need to work through it, play through it.

"So we think that's a great sign, and the doctor was very pleased with where [Morneau] was when he saw him the last time."

I can't help but be troubled by what Smith was trying to frame as a positive update on the first baseman's condition. It indicates that, more than six months after initially sustaining his concussion in Toronto, Morneau still has not shaken symptoms. I'm not distrustful of the team's doctors, but it does strike me as a bit of a slippery slope advising Morneau to "work through" his symptoms -- this is a brain injury, not a sprained ankle. I'm sure that ultimately they'll exercise appropriate caution, as they have all along in this process.

Should worse come to worst with Morneau, it's comforting to know that the team now at least has someone on the roster capable of making up for even a fraction of that missing power production. In the best case scenario, Thome will serve as a late-inning weapon on the bench and occasional DH. For those purposes, you couldn't ask for a better hitter -- or person -- than a man who will soon become the eighth in major-league history to reach 600 home runs.

***

For some quick additional reading, check out this article from the ESPN.com Stats & Info Blog on the historical significance of Thome's numbers against right-handed pitching. You might be surprised by how high he ranks.

Settling

Earlier this week, I remarked that a return to Minnesota for Carl Pavano was "beginning to seem all but inevitable." As such, I was hardly surprised last night when I read a report from Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com that the right-hander and the Twins are closing in on what sounds like a two-year deal.

That qualifies as settling for Pavano, at least in his mind. At the outset of the offseason, he and his agent were allegedly seeking a three-year deal, and given the dearth of strong starting pitching options in free agency behind Cliff Lee, it seemed feasible that he could manage that. As it turns out, though, teams around the league aren't keen on handing pricey multi-year deals to 35-year-old pitchers with troubling injury histories. Especially not when they have to give up a high draft pick to do so.

The Twins' arbitration offer to Pavano, a Type A, might have been his death knell. Because despite his solid results in 2010, the veteran has apparently drawn almost no interest from teams other than the Twins in free agency. Those with needs in their rotations have looked elsewhere. The general manager of the Nationals, who had been tied to Pavano through recent media reports, downplayed his team's interest earlier this week:

"I hear we are 'the finalist' along with the Twins," said [Mike] Rizzo, acerbically. "We've never spoken to Pavano and we haven't talked to his agent since the winter meetings." 

The Twins never would have given Pavano three years, and rightfully so. For two, it sounds like they're willing to take the plunge. Fully analyzing this deal is impossible without hearing the financial terms, and it's possible those aren't even finalized -- Rosenthal only said the two sides were "closing in." My guess is that Pavano's salary will end up being around $9 million per year.

Nine million dollars isn't exactly the going rate for stud frontline starters, but it's a significant chunk of change for a team with a stretched budget. That figure would exceed the combined salaries next year for J.J. Hardy and Matt Guerrier, both of whom the Twins could have kept. At that price, the front office would be investing a lot of hope that Pavano can carry his success from 2010 forward into 2011 and 2012, at the ages of 35 and 36.

Unfortunately, there's not a lot of reason to believe he's got two more seasons like that in him. Only twice in his 13-year career has Pavano pitched at such a high level, and frankly the way he wrapped up his solid 2010 campaign serves as a perfect reminder of his downfalls.

Over 53 innings in his final eight regular-season starts, Pavano struck out only 20 hitters (good for a Blackburnian 3.4 K/9 rate) while allowing 70 hits and nine home runs. In his one postseason start against the Yankees, he yielded 10 hits and a homer while striking out only three of the 28 batters he faced.

The command is always going to be there for Pavano. He'll always limit walks and hit his spots. And when he's going good, he'll manage to keep the hits and home runs in check while missing a few bats. When he's not going good, like he was late last season and more frequently in a 2009 campaign where he posted a 5.10 ERA, he doesn't do those things. How often can we hope he'll be going good as he moves into his late 30s?

The Twins have watched several good players walk away this offseason, and now it's starting to look like they did it in order to make money available for this deal. It's a risky decision and one that could very easily backfire.

Then again, considering the lack of depth in this young rotation and the gamut of question marks surrounding the bullpen, maybe they had no choice. At the very least, Pavano should be able to eat up innings in bunches if he's healthy. That's the very least the Twins will need from him.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka: Hope vs. Expectations

When the Twins held a press conference on Saturday afternoon to officially announce the signing of Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, space was scarce. Patrick Reusse put the frenzy into perspective: "The formal interview room, which was built with the idea of hosting the media crowds for postseason games, was jammed to the point CEO Jim Pohlad took in the event while standing against the far wall."

Yes, the Nishioka era has begun in Minnesota, now that he and the Twins have officially reached agreement on a three-year, $9 million deal (with a $4 million option for 2014). Accounting for the $5.3 million posting fee and $250,000 option buyout, the Twins' commitment to Nishioka essentially amounts to $15 million. That's no chump change, but the team will likely find it a sound investment from a financial standpoint. The addition of a star Japanese player -- the first in franchise history -- will help build excitement among the fan base while greatly increasing the Twins' international appeal.

The more important question for hardcore fans is whether the team will find Nishioka's three-year contract a sound investment from a competitive standpoint.

I hope they do. I hope Nishioka can present an exciting new dynamic for the Twins' lineup, adding himself to a select list of successful transitions from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) to the major leagues. I hope he becomes an asset at the plate and in the field, and a fan favorite. I hope that by the time he's eligible for free agency in three years, he's a hot commodity.

But hopes are different from expectations. And I'd be lying if I said I expected any of that. There's just too much evidence leading me in the other direction.

Nishioka catapulted himself to a new level of stardom by winning the Pacific League batting title last year, hitting .346/.423/.482 with 11 home runs, 59 RBI and 22 stolen bases as a 25-year-old. He is also a five-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glover. These numbers have been widely touted by folks trying to stir up excitement over his acquisition, but they overlook an important fact: the level of play in NPB is roughly equivalent to Triple-A, and it's possible that even that's being generous.

As an example, consider the case of Matt Murton.  You might remember his name; he was a rather unexceptional big-league outfielder who scraped together a .286/.352/.436 career line while spending time with the Cubs, Athletics and Rockies -- mostly as a backup. Prior to the 2010 season, he signed a contract with the Hanshin Tigers of NPB and in his first year there he hit .349/.395/.499 with 17 home runs and 91 RBI over 144 games. As a major-leaguer, Murton had managed just 29 home runs and 112 RBI in 346 games.

If Nishioka can approximate Murton's big-league production while adding strong defense, he'd be a great get. But Nishioka's 2010 season stands as an outlier in an otherwise unspectacular NPB career. In the three years prior, he'd amassed a .287/.361/.427 line; while those numbers aren't bad, no one would get excited about seeing them from a Triple-A player. It is possible that Nishioka, who's just entering his prime years, turned a corner this past summer, but his production was largely fueled by his high batting average, which itself was propped up by an unsustainable .389 batting average on balls in play. Before 2010, he was a .284 career hitter.

Unless Nishioka carries over his great luck from this past year or makes meaningful improvements at the plate, his realistic upside is probably league-average offensive production (last year, for second basemen, that equated to .265/.330/.389). That kind of performance would be worth the price tag if it's coupled with above-average defense. But what to expect from Nishioka defensively is anyone's guess.

The fact that he's won three Japanese Gold Gloves, two of them at shortstop, should be taken with a grain of salt. Kaz Matsui won four NPB Gold Gloves, all at shortstop, but his defense at the position was considered so dreadful in the States that he was moved to second after one season. As another example, Akinori Iwamura won six Gold Gloves in Japan and was considered an ordinary fielder here.

Of course, the fact that neither of those players excelled defensively in the majors doesn't mean Nishioka can't. The Twins have always placed considerable value on infield defense, and likely wouldn't have made this bold move if their scouts didn't think he was capable. It's just important to keep in mind that, historically, great defensive reputations have not often carried over from NPB to MLB.

It's easy to get caught up in the Nishioka hype. He adds a unique new aspect to the franchise, he fills up press conferences and he's starred in an Adidas "Impossible is Nothing" ad. But among all that glitz and glamor, there's also the viewpoint of former MLB and NPB pitcher C.J. Nitkowski, who reacted to the lucrative signing by remarking that "AAA & AAAA middle infielders are wishing they were Japanese imports." (In other words, stating that Nishioka's talent level is really no different from an American player who stands out at Triple-A but isn't quite fit to be a regular in the major leagues.)

I want Nitkowski to be wrong. My hopes for Nishioka are set high. But my expectations are set considerably lower, to the point that he'd exceed them by turning into a league-average MLB middle-infielder.

Those expectations aren't very exciting, I suppose. But hey, that's what hope is for.

Going For Grudz

The Twins made a move aimed at addressing one of their biggest holes this weekend, inking Mark Grudzielanek to a minor-league contract with the apparent plan of plugging him in at second base if Alexi Casilla continues to struggle.

The move was interesting and unexpected, to say the least. With rumors floating around about various trade candidates who might interest the Twins, Bill Smith has elected to sign a 39-year-old free agent who hasn't played this season.

Grudzielanek hasn't, in fact, played in a game since August 1 of last year. He spent last season with the Royals and missed the final two months with an ankle injury, subsequently drawing little interest in free agency. This led many to believe he was done playing, so to see his name pop up as an acquisition for the Twins around the trade deadline is a huge surprise.

This isn't necessarily a bad move. Despite his age, Grudz has remained a productive hitter over the past several seasons. He hasn't posted a batting average lower than .294 since 2002. He bats from the right side. He's got decent power and has generally been good for 30 doubles and a few homers each year. Defensively, he's very solid and has graded out better than average basically every season that he's been in the league. If the Twins are getting the same Mark Grudzielanek from the past five years, they're getting a significant upgrade at second base.

Of course, whether they're actually getting that player remains to be seen and is far from a lock. At this point, there's really no way to know what kind of shape Grudzielanek is in after being away from the game for a full 12 months. And while he has maintained solid production over the past several years, a player in his mid to late 30s can drop off a cliff at any time (just ask Rondell White and Bret Boone).

With 1,772 games of major-league experience, it's possible that the 14-year veteran could jump right back in and acclimate himself quickly. The Twins will need him to do just that, because with only 70 games remaining and a two-game deficit in the standings, they don't have much time to be patient. This is a low-risk, medium-reward type of signing and many fans will no doubt be disappointed that this move very likely precludes any type of major trade being swung, but if the Twins have done their homework and are confident that he's in game shape, Grudz is definitely capable of shoring up the second base position over the final two months of the season.

Great Expectations

After reading through a story on Joe Crede on the Star Tribune's online edition yesterday, I glanced at the reader comments section below the article and came across this statement:

i would take crede at 75% over anybody else on the team.

Oh boy. On a team that features legitimate stars like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan, that's pretty ridiculous. Now, I bring up this comment not just to point out one loony anonymous opinion out there on the Web, but rather to point out what seems to be a common misperception among Twins fans. While the comment quoted above may be rather extreme, I've definitely picked up on a theme of misguided exuberance regarding this acquisition. I think this is largely the result of exasperation that has built up within the fan base over a long winter of overactivity, and also a tendency for fans to focus on Crede's perceived upside (like what he did to the Twins last year, and what he did overall in 2006) while overlooking his considerable flaws.

Now, contrary to popular belief, I don't hate Crede. And I certainly don't hate this move. I see the Twins' signing of Crede to a one-year deal for $2.5 million guaranteed, with $4.5 million in incentives based on plate appearances, as one that potentially carries very little downside for the Twins and gives them a reasonably good chance of getting improved play out of the third base position this season. My main concern when it came to signing Crede was that the Twins would hand him a large guaranteed contract, and then feel obligated to trotting him out there repeatedly even if he were ineffective in order to get their money's worth. Let's face it, stubborn loyalty to veteran players has been a Ron Gardenhire trademark in the past. Yet, the beauty of a contract in which well over half the money is tied up in playing time incentives is that not only are the Twins free of a large monetary commitment that would tie them to Crede, they actually have legitimate incentive not to continue trotting him out there if he's ineffective. That $3-4 million Crede can earn by working his way toward 525 plate appearances may not mean much to you and I, but I'd bet it matters to the Twins' front office and ownership. Let's not forget that this organization willingly took a big PR hit in 2007 by trading Luis Castillo for marginal prospects at midseason solely to get a couple million off the books.

Crede's negatives have been discussed exhaustively in this space: he's a major injury risk, he generally has not been a great hitter over the course of his career, his power numbers have been propped up by a hitter-friendly ballpark, etc. Moreover, it seems that members of the team have a rather skewed view of Crede's ability. For instance, says Michael Cuddyer: "Crede has killed us over the past couple years." Says Gardenhire: "He can put the ball in the seats as he’s done plenty of times against us. Those guys kind of make good impressions on you when they keep hitting balls in the seats against you." This whole "he's been good against us so he must be great" mentality is one I remember picking up on after last year's acquisition of Craig Monroe. It's worth noting, though, that while Crede has generally clobbered the Twins when the two teams have faced off in Chicago, he has posted just a .219/.242/.355 line over 49 career games in the Metrodome.

Now, none of that dooms Crede, and there's no denying that -- if healthy -- he can be a solid player. It is important to keep in mind that that is a big IF, and that there is a sizable difference between "solid" and "great." Crede is coming off two back surgeries and has missed 180 games over the past two seasons, and by his own admission he's still not quite 100 percent (that story seems to have changed since he was a free agent looking to get signed, oddly enough). Crede's biggest strength is his defense, and if his back continues to give him problems and limits his flexibility, his fielding could conceivably take a hit. It's encouraging, though, that he still rated quite well defensively last year with the White Sox in spite of the fact that he was probably playing through some back problems.

Still, I must stress that Crede's upside is not as high as many seem to believe, and his likelihood of reaching that upside isn't particularly great. Fans who are expecting Crede to repeat his 2006 performance this year are begging to be disappointed, because that season was as much of an outlier as Cuddyer's 2006 season. If he's healthy enough to stay on the field, Crede should be able to provide strong defense from the hot corner while popping a few big home runs, but he is also likely to make a lot of outs.

Crede has a lot invested in this season. Not only will he need to stay on the field to activate the incentives in his contract, he's also out to prove to teams around the league that he's healthy so that he can seek a larger contract next winter. These circumstances may play for or against the Twins. That motivation may push Crede to work extra hard and put up big numbers while going out of his way to avoid injury. It might also push him to play through injuries while posting poor numbers as he did in 2007. One of the best things about the Crede signing is that the Twins still have a solid backup option in place between Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris, but that benefit only works if Gardenhire is willing to fall back on it when the time is right.

This offseason has been a dreadfully slow one for the Twins, and many Twins fans -- including myself -- have grown exasperated with Bill Smith for missing the boat on some great opportunities. Yet, the GM deserves a lot of credit for his handling of the Crede situation. Rather than give in to absurd initial demands, Smith gauged the limited market for Crede and played the waiting game until finally the third baseman's demands came down to a reasonable level. If Crede truly believes he is going to be fully healthy and productive all year, he can now prove it on the field and earn his money. If he's not, the team has the ability to fall back on the Harris/Buscher option while only losing a couple million dollars. Whether they take advantage of that opportunity will fall on the manager.

Odd Man Out

On Saturday afternoon, I met with a few Twins bloggers at Joe Senser's in Bloomington to discuss baseball over snacks and drinks. The gathering provided me with an opportunity to meet John Meyer (of Twins Most Valuable Blogger) and Parker Hageman (of Over the Baggy) for the first time, catch up with the affable Seth Stohs, and engage in another friendly yet contentious debate with John Bonnes over Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young (suffice to say we fall on opposite ends of the spectrum in our standpoints on both players). The outing also afforded my mother the opportunity to, upon learning of my plans from my Facebook status, take the following shot: "What kind of luncheon do people go to at 2:30 in the afternoon? Oh wait, this is a bloggers luncheon." Well played, mom.

Of course, we also had to talk a little bit about what qualifies as perhaps the Twins' biggest offseason move thus far -- the signing of reliever Luis Ayala to a one-year, $1.3 million deal. And that's just what we did... talk about it a little bit. Ayala just isn't someone worth getting excited about. He's got a history of pitching well, having posted a sub-3 ERA in each of his first three seasons as a big-leaguer, and he has some experience closing games. But he's 31 years old, missed the 2006 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and posted a 5.74 ERA and 1.45 WHIP between the Nationals and Mets last year. A right-handed reliever who has a history of posting solid ERA figures despite underwhelming peripherals and who is looking to bounce back from a miserable 2008 campaign... Ayala basically seems like another Matt Guerrier.

Now, I don't mean to say that Ayala is a terrible addition. He's a sinker specialist who seemingly has a decent chance to provide some quality innings this year, and it's tough to pout too much about a one-year commitment at just over a million dollars. What I find more interesting is that the signing of Ayala could very well signal that either Boof Bonser or Philip Humber is gone. Both those players are out of options, and the Twins were going to have a hard time bringing them both north out of spring training as it was. By signing Ayala to a contract and (at least in my view) essentially guaranteeing him a spot in the bullpen, the Twins are seemingly pushing one of the Bonser/Humber duo out the door.

Prior to Ayala's signing, a seven-man bullpen for the Twins would have probably looked like this: Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow, Jose Mijares, Bonser and Humber. With Ayala entering the fray, the Twins will either have to start Mijares in Triple-A or say goodbye to one (or both) of Bonser and Humber. That could present a difficult decision for Ron Gardenhire. While there's technically no downside to starting Mijares in the minors (and it's probably the option I'd choose), this would leave the Twins with only one lefty in the bullpen and would rob the team of its best non-Nathan relief option during the last month of the 2008 season.

If it comes down to it, the choice between Bonser and Humber is not an easy one. Bonser showed some devastating stuff after moving to the bullpen last season, and members of the organization have publicly mused that he could eventually blossom into a dominant setup man, so this doesn't seem like the proper time to give up on him. Humber came on strong in the second half for Rochester last year, and allowing one of the four prospects that came back in the Johan Santana trade to simply walk away one year later would probably not reflect well upon the organization.

While it makes sense to carry all these pitchers into spring training and let things sort themselves out (at least one of these relievers is bound to get hurt or perform horribly), there's some risk involved in this course of action. Humber and Bonser are both talented enough to have some semblance of trade value, so carrying them to the end of spring training and then being forced to lose them while getting nothing back would be a mistake worth avoiding.

Signing Ayala doesn't strike me as the type of move that provides a clear, decisive upgrade to the bullpen, but it could pan out. If, however, the move forces the Twins to part with either Bonser or Humber while receiving nothing in return, it could end up hurting more than it helps.

Kubel's Contract, Cameron's Comments

The terms of Jason Kubel’s new contract have been disclosed, and they’re even better than I’d anticipated: two years, $7.2 million with a club option for 2011. The Twins will pay Kubel $2.75 million this year, $4.1 million in 2010 and -- should they choose to activate their option -- $5.1 million in 2011. Those terms compare very favorably to the annual salaries I guessed Kubel would make over this three-year deal ($3M/$5M/$7M).

Consider this: the 2009 season is the first year Michael Cuddyer would have been eligible for free agency, and as part of his new contract he’ll be making $6.75 million. Cuddyer has had only one season (2006) in his entire career in which he has posted better offensive numbers than Kubel has in each of his past two. Kubel has improved in each of the past two seasons and is reaching his peak years, so there’s no reason to believe he won’t either sustain or improve his performance over the next three seasons. So, in all likelihood, the Twins will be paying Kubel more than $1.5 million less in his first free-agent eligible season than they are Cuddyer, in spite of the fact that Kubel has pretty clearly established himself as the better hitter. This is a nice contract.

Dave Cameron doesn’t think so. In an article published Wednesday on FanGraphs.com, Cameron asserts that Kubel is basically the same player as Eric Hinske, who signed with the Pirates this week for $1.5 million, and uses this for the basis of an argument that paints Kubel’s contract as a needless risk for the Twins.

Let me first say that I am a huge fan of Dave Cameron. His work at the U.S.S. Mariner is outstanding and he’s truly one of my very favorite baseball bloggers outside of Minnesota. That’s why it pains me to say that he is woefully misguided on this topic.

From a purely statistical standpoint, there is some merit to the Kubel/Hinske comparison. Hinske is a .254/.335/.438 career hitter; Kubel weighs in at .268/.326/.445. Both rate dreadfully in the field, both display some nice left-handed power, both have fairly similar K/BB rates. What Cameron effectively ignores is that Hinske is four-and-a-half years older than Kubel and has nearly 1,800 more major-league at-bats. The only time Cameron makes any mention of the age difference between the two players is in this paragraph:

Yes, Hinske’s five years older, but MLB is full of players with that skillset. Minnesota could have just used Hinske this year, then found his clone next winter, and so on and so forth. Same reward with none of the associated risk that goes with multiyear contracts.

This is a completely baffling sentiment. First of all, five years of age and 1,800 at-bats of big-league experience are not inconsequential. We know what Hinske is by this point, but the fact that Kubel was a minor-league stud who missed a year of crucial development time due to a devastating knee injury and has been steadily improving ever since makes it much harder to judge what he’s capable of. In Kubel, I see a player who is inching closer and closer to the monster hitter he was in the minors. In Hinske, I see a washout whose utility doesn’t stretch beyond left-handed pinch hitter. The two players may share a “skillset” but are likely to be on opposite ends of the spectrum this year as far as how effective their skills really are.

As for Cameron’s suggested plan of using Hinske this year, then finding his “clone” next winter and continuing that path to keep the DH spot filled... it's fine in theory, but it's also something the Twins have shown absolutely no ability to do historically. As easy as it ostensibly is to find decent hitters who can fill the DH role, the Twins went almost half a decade without a competent player in that spot until Kubel’s emergence.

As for the supposed risk associated with the contract, the Twins are paying Kubel about a million more than Hinske will make this year (inconsequential considering their budget surplus) and they’re on the hook for $4.1 million in 2010, which they can pretty easily afford. That’s it. That’s all the risk they’re assuming. They can buy out his option for a paltry $350K in 2011 if his game goes to hell. The reward, which Cameron seems to believe doesn’t exist, is that the Twins have locked up a young, improving, in-house slugger to fill a position that has been a huge liability for them historically, and they’ve done so at a very reasonable price. No need to search the scrap heap on an annual basis for the supposedly ever-present slugging DH that is always available for a million bucks. Those who have followed the Twins are sure to appreciate this luxury, and one would think a person who had to suffer through Jose Vidro as a DH a year ago would appreciate it as well.

On the Lamb

The Twins signed their second former Astro in as many days yesterday, inking third baseman Mike Lamb to a two-year contract worth $6.6 million, with an option for a third year. Joe Christensen reports that while Lamb is a likely candidate to start at third base, assistant GM Rob Antony said, "We don't like to give anything away."

Considering the alternatives, my guess is that Lamb will be the Twins' starting third baseman next season, and that's not really a bad thing. He often struggled to get regular playing time during his eight seasons with the Rangers and Astros, and has never accumulated more than 381 at-bats in a season (EDIT: since his rookie season -- thanks Ryan!). Still, he's posted a solid .281/.339/.427 line over the course of his career, and last season with the Astros he batted .289/.366/.453 with 11 home runs and 40 RBI in 311 at-bats.

There's reason to question why an apparently rebuilding team would make a two-year commitment to a 32-year-old defensive liability, but Lamb is likely to provide at least league-average offensive production from third base next year, which will be a major upgrade from the atrocious .236/.308/.323 line the Twins got from third base last year. Plus, the presence of defensive wizard Adam Everett at shortstop should help offset Lamb's fielding deficiencies on the left side of the infield.

As the Twins struggled to field an offense that could even be considered respectable for much of the 2007 season, I often mused that if they could just upgrade from "awful" to "average" at a few positions, they'd have a shot at competing. Bill Smith has accomplished that, in earnest, by adding Lamb at third base.

Update: Twins Sign Everett

According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, the Twins have signed shortstop Adam Everett to a one-year contract. Everett became expendable to the Astros when they decided to trade for Miguel Tejada.

Step one to upgrading an anemic offense: sign a player with a .248/.299/.357 career hitting line to become your starting shortstop. Check.

Monroe's Aboard

Joe Christensen reported yesterday that the Twins have come to terms on a one-year contract with Craig Monroe, an arbitration-eligible outfielder whom they acquired from the Cubs about a month ago. The Twins signed Monroe for the smallest amount they could by rule at $3.82 million - a 20 percent reduction from his salary in 2007. That seems like an awful lot of money for a guy who hit .219/.268/.347 last season.

However, while I'm not overly enthused about the signing, I'm not too upset about it. In essence, what Bill Smith has done with the Twins' outfield so far this offseason is replace Rondell White with Delmon Young and Lew Ford with Craig Monroe, without much fluctuation in cost overall. Those are pretty significant upgrades. Despite his poor numbers last season, Monroe is a solid fourth outfielder who can come off the bench and provide some pop. He also hits well against lefties (.814 career OPS), which should be useful given that the Twins' 2008 lineup will likely contain at least four left-handed bats in Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and the center fielder (who I'm currently presuming will be either Jason Pridie or Jacoby Ellsbury).

It seems likely that Monroe will be overpaid in 2008, but that's really a luxury that Twins can afford, with have a massive chunk of payroll coming off the books even if Johan Santana isn't dealt. The Twins have continually claimed that they intend to increase payroll in 2008 -- it seems like they'll have a hard time doing so without handing out a few pricey short-term deals.