Odd Man Out

On Saturday afternoon, I met with a few Twins bloggers at Joe Senser's in Bloomington to discuss baseball over snacks and drinks. The gathering provided me with an opportunity to meet John Meyer (of Twins Most Valuable Blogger) and Parker Hageman (of Over the Baggy) for the first time, catch up with the affable Seth Stohs, and engage in another friendly yet contentious debate with John Bonnes over Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young (suffice to say we fall on opposite ends of the spectrum in our standpoints on both players). The outing also afforded my mother the opportunity to, upon learning of my plans from my Facebook status, take the following shot: "What kind of luncheon do people go to at 2:30 in the afternoon? Oh wait, this is a bloggers luncheon." Well played, mom.

Of course, we also had to talk a little bit about what qualifies as perhaps the Twins' biggest offseason move thus far -- the signing of reliever Luis Ayala to a one-year, $1.3 million deal. And that's just what we did... talk about it a little bit. Ayala just isn't someone worth getting excited about. He's got a history of pitching well, having posted a sub-3 ERA in each of his first three seasons as a big-leaguer, and he has some experience closing games. But he's 31 years old, missed the 2006 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and posted a 5.74 ERA and 1.45 WHIP between the Nationals and Mets last year. A right-handed reliever who has a history of posting solid ERA figures despite underwhelming peripherals and who is looking to bounce back from a miserable 2008 campaign... Ayala basically seems like another Matt Guerrier.

Now, I don't mean to say that Ayala is a terrible addition. He's a sinker specialist who seemingly has a decent chance to provide some quality innings this year, and it's tough to pout too much about a one-year commitment at just over a million dollars. What I find more interesting is that the signing of Ayala could very well signal that either Boof Bonser or Philip Humber is gone. Both those players are out of options, and the Twins were going to have a hard time bringing them both north out of spring training as it was. By signing Ayala to a contract and (at least in my view) essentially guaranteeing him a spot in the bullpen, the Twins are seemingly pushing one of the Bonser/Humber duo out the door.

Prior to Ayala's signing, a seven-man bullpen for the Twins would have probably looked like this: Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow, Jose Mijares, Bonser and Humber. With Ayala entering the fray, the Twins will either have to start Mijares in Triple-A or say goodbye to one (or both) of Bonser and Humber. That could present a difficult decision for Ron Gardenhire. While there's technically no downside to starting Mijares in the minors (and it's probably the option I'd choose), this would leave the Twins with only one lefty in the bullpen and would rob the team of its best non-Nathan relief option during the last month of the 2008 season.

If it comes down to it, the choice between Bonser and Humber is not an easy one. Bonser showed some devastating stuff after moving to the bullpen last season, and members of the organization have publicly mused that he could eventually blossom into a dominant setup man, so this doesn't seem like the proper time to give up on him. Humber came on strong in the second half for Rochester last year, and allowing one of the four prospects that came back in the Johan Santana trade to simply walk away one year later would probably not reflect well upon the organization.

While it makes sense to carry all these pitchers into spring training and let things sort themselves out (at least one of these relievers is bound to get hurt or perform horribly), there's some risk involved in this course of action. Humber and Bonser are both talented enough to have some semblance of trade value, so carrying them to the end of spring training and then being forced to lose them while getting nothing back would be a mistake worth avoiding.

Signing Ayala doesn't strike me as the type of move that provides a clear, decisive upgrade to the bullpen, but it could pan out. If, however, the move forces the Twins to part with either Bonser or Humber while receiving nothing in return, it could end up hurting more than it helps.

Philip Humber: The Next Joe Nathan?

I had a dream last week. In this dream, the Twins had not yet announced the Johan Santana trade, but indications were that a deal with an unknown team was in place and that a press release would be made available by the team shortly. I fully expected Santana to be headed to the Yankees, with 21-year-old wunderkind Philip Hughes coming back. The idea was tantalizing -- the Twins would be losing their historically great southpaw, but getting back an absolute stud with legitimate potential to fill the massive void left by Santana's departure. Hughes and Francisco Liriano at the top of the rotation for the next five years? My mouth watered. I think I drooled into my pillow a little bit.

The announcement was made. The Twins had traded Santana. I rushed to my computer to read through the official press release. "The Minnesota Twins announced to today that they have traded two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana for a package that includes right-handed pitcher Philip..." Yes, this is looking good... "H..." Oh baby! "u..." How long until Hughes Twins jerseys are available at the Pro Shops?? "...mber." WHAT?! I woke up in a panic. Thank goodness it was only a dream, and the Twins didn't really trade Santana for a package whose most attractive player might be a marginal pitching prospect who posted a 4.27 ERA in Triple-A last year. Oh wait... yes they did.

There was a time when Phil Humber's career path appeared headed in the direction that Hughes' has gone. Selected with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2004 draft by the Mets after a dominating career at Rice University, Humber had the makeup and stuff of a guy who could rocket through the minor leagues and be pitching at the top of an MLB rotation in no time. Sadly, elbow problems and Tommy John surgery have derailed Humber, and at this point he is far from a guarantee to develop into a strong major-league starter. At one point, it might have been realistic to say Humber could replace Santana as the Twins' ace, but at this point it would be difficult to make that case. Then again, it's entirely possible that the Twins wanted Humber in the package not as a replacement for Santana, but instead as a replacement for another elite Twins pitcher who may be on his way out.

Humber and Joe Nathan are alike in a number of ways. Nathan is 6'4" and 205 lbs. Humber is 6'4" and 210 lbs. Nathan came to the Twins as the most major-league ready pitcher in what was essentially a veteran-for-prospects swap. Ditto Humber. When he's at his best, Nathan relies on a speedy fastball and a nasty breaking pitch to fan opposing hitters. The same can be said for Humber.

Like Humber, Nathan was almost exclusively a starter as he traveled through the minor leagues, but obviously he thrived upon shifting to the bullpen. Could Humber experience the same type of success with a switch to the 'pen? It would be a logical move. Humber has struggled to regain the velocity on his fastball and bite on his curveball since undergoing surgery on his elbow. Working in shorter bullpen stints, he may be better able to utilize his stuff. The lesser workload might also lower his risk for injury. Additionally, moving to the bullpen can be beneficial for pitchers who struggle with control -- that certainly was the case for Nathan, who walked 4.56 batters per nine innings as a minor-leaguer but has never seen that number exceed 2.86 since becoming a full-time closer in the big leagues. The Twins are going to be needing to add some power arms to their bullpen in the near future, with Nathan and Juan Rincon both likely to be gone after next year and Eduardo Morlan no longer in the organization.

It's unlikely that anyone acquired in Mets trade is going to become the next Johan Santana, but if Humber can become the next Joe Nathan, it will make the deal a whole lot more palatable. I think he could do it, but maybe I'm just dreaming.