The Twins made their signing of Josh Willingham official yesterday, finalizing a three-year, $21 million deal with the veteran outfielder.
The move rules out a return to Minnesota for long-time franchise staple Michael Cuddyer, who'd been viewed as an alternative option to fill the same need.
Or does it?
While the Twins' interest in Willingham and Cuddyer had largely been framed as an either/or scenario over the first couple months of the offseason, there's been growing speculation that the club may consider bringing Cuddyer back even with Willingham locked in.
This strikes me as bizarre. It's not hard to see the appeal in a lineup that includes both bats, but the Twins are working with limited resources -- Terry Ryan would have to stretch the budget past ownership's desired target of $100 million to bring Cuddyer back -- and they haven't yet begun to address their flimsy pitching corps.
In fact, all the team has really done so far is subtract from a staff that finished second-to-last in the majors in ERA. It's tough to see how signing Cuddyer would leave much flexibility to add anything beyond the types of marginal minor-league arms they've already brought into the mix.
Not only would signing Cuddyer show a lopsided emphasis on offense versus pitching, it would also signal that the front office is focusing far too much on the present versus the future. It's great that Ryan and Co. are intent on righting the ship in short order, but they need to be rebuilding with an eye toward the organization's long-term health as well. Forfeiting a pair of high draft picks while committing $45 million to a pair of 33-year-old corner outfielders seems extremely short-sighted.
There's an inherent risk in making multi-year commitments to players that are aging into their mid-30s. Fortunately, that risk is mitigated in Willingham's case because $7 million annually is very reasonable for a player of his pedigree, which is why this deal has to be looked at as a slam dunk success for the front office.
By signing Cuddyer in addition to Willingham though, the Twins would be doubling their risk. Having both outfielders aboard would certainly strengthen the lineup in the short term, but the long-term ramifications are troubling and if the front office is willing to cough up an additional $24 million for a Cuddyer contract, it sure seems like that money could be put to better use on pitching.
[UPDATE: Such fears can be put to rest. Cuddyer signed a three-year, $31.5 million contract with the Rockies today.]
Showing posts with label cuddyer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cuddyer. Show all posts
Friday, December 16, 2011
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Three-Bagger: Outfield, Hoey & Mijares
* With their holes at shortstop and catcher addressed early on, the Twins' top remaining priority (outside of the eminent need for more pitching) is signing an outfielder. Presently, they're sort of in limbo with this task and have been for over a week.
It has been widely reported that the Twins have an offer out to Michael Cuddyer -- thought to be around three years and $24 million -- and view Josh Willingham as their top backup option should Cuddyer choose to sign elsewhere. The rumor mill has been fairly quiet with both players, but there are indications from both camps that decisions are coming within the next couple days.
Cuddyer and Willingham have similar profiles and both would fill the club's need for a righty-swinging outfielder with power that can slot between the lefties in the middle of the lineup. Willingham is probably a better hitter, but he's a little less versatile defensively. Assuming they require similar financial commitments, the two are essentially a push, and I think either one is likely to be a solid value at around $8 million per season.
What makes the decision a no-brainer, in my mind, is the fact that the Twins would attain two high draft picks next June by allowing the Type-A Cuddyer to sign elsewhere and bringing Willingham aboard. Those compensatory picks could go a long way toward restocking the farm system, and the Twins would hardly be hurting their competitive chances in the short-term, even though letting Cuddy walk would incense a certain segment of the fan base.
Will Terry Ryan follow his heart or his brain? It appears that we'll find out by the end of the week.
* The Twins waived Jim Hoey, the fire-balling right-hander received in the horribly misguided J.J. Hardy trade a year ago, and on Monday he was claimed by the Blue Jays. Now all the Twins have left to show for Hardy, who emerged as one of the league's better shortstops this season, is Brett Jacobson, a 25-year-old righty reliever that performed poorly in New Britain.
I'm not exactly a big Hoey fan, but I must confess I'm a little surprised and disappointed to see the Twins giving up on him so soon. His performance in the majors this season was clearly hideous, but he was reasonably decent in the minors, where his walk rate dropped for a third straight year, and the organization is short on guys who can hit 96 on the radar gun.
Ultimately, Hoey remains the same player he was when the Twins acquired him: a live arm with serious control issues that he will likely never fully overcome. Still, the front office liked him enough to target him a year ago, and now they're ditching him to open up a spot on the 40-man while preserving no-upside guys like Matt Maloney and Jeff Gray?
I don't get it.
* Another reliever that won't be with the Twins next year is Jose Mijares, whom the club chose to non-tender rather than retaining at a modest fee. At one point, Mijares was a very promising young southpaw, and I figured he'd be brought back considering how little he stands to make in arbitration. However, I certainly can't fault the team for cutting the cord.
Back in 2009, a 24-year-old rookie Mijares was a tremendous asset as a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen, turning in a 2.34 ERA and 55-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 61 2/3 innings while holding lefty hitters to a .480 OPS. His performance has rapidly deteriorated in the two seasons since, though, and the Twins have been vocally frustrated by his work ethic.
This past season, Mijares was flat-out awful. His effectiveness against left-handed hitters was greatly diminished and against righties he was a huge liability with a ghastly 11-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Mijares will find work somewhere and could rebound as he's only 27, but the Twins are already plenty deep on lefty bullpen options between Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing and Phil Dumatrait.
It has been widely reported that the Twins have an offer out to Michael Cuddyer -- thought to be around three years and $24 million -- and view Josh Willingham as their top backup option should Cuddyer choose to sign elsewhere. The rumor mill has been fairly quiet with both players, but there are indications from both camps that decisions are coming within the next couple days.
Cuddyer and Willingham have similar profiles and both would fill the club's need for a righty-swinging outfielder with power that can slot between the lefties in the middle of the lineup. Willingham is probably a better hitter, but he's a little less versatile defensively. Assuming they require similar financial commitments, the two are essentially a push, and I think either one is likely to be a solid value at around $8 million per season.
What makes the decision a no-brainer, in my mind, is the fact that the Twins would attain two high draft picks next June by allowing the Type-A Cuddyer to sign elsewhere and bringing Willingham aboard. Those compensatory picks could go a long way toward restocking the farm system, and the Twins would hardly be hurting their competitive chances in the short-term, even though letting Cuddy walk would incense a certain segment of the fan base.
Will Terry Ryan follow his heart or his brain? It appears that we'll find out by the end of the week.
* The Twins waived Jim Hoey, the fire-balling right-hander received in the horribly misguided J.J. Hardy trade a year ago, and on Monday he was claimed by the Blue Jays. Now all the Twins have left to show for Hardy, who emerged as one of the league's better shortstops this season, is Brett Jacobson, a 25-year-old righty reliever that performed poorly in New Britain.
I'm not exactly a big Hoey fan, but I must confess I'm a little surprised and disappointed to see the Twins giving up on him so soon. His performance in the majors this season was clearly hideous, but he was reasonably decent in the minors, where his walk rate dropped for a third straight year, and the organization is short on guys who can hit 96 on the radar gun.
Ultimately, Hoey remains the same player he was when the Twins acquired him: a live arm with serious control issues that he will likely never fully overcome. Still, the front office liked him enough to target him a year ago, and now they're ditching him to open up a spot on the 40-man while preserving no-upside guys like Matt Maloney and Jeff Gray?
I don't get it.
* Another reliever that won't be with the Twins next year is Jose Mijares, whom the club chose to non-tender rather than retaining at a modest fee. At one point, Mijares was a very promising young southpaw, and I figured he'd be brought back considering how little he stands to make in arbitration. However, I certainly can't fault the team for cutting the cord.
Back in 2009, a 24-year-old rookie Mijares was a tremendous asset as a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen, turning in a 2.34 ERA and 55-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 61 2/3 innings while holding lefty hitters to a .480 OPS. His performance has rapidly deteriorated in the two seasons since, though, and the Twins have been vocally frustrated by his work ethic.
This past season, Mijares was flat-out awful. His effectiveness against left-handed hitters was greatly diminished and against righties he was a huge liability with a ghastly 11-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Mijares will find work somewhere and could rebound as he's only 27, but the Twins are already plenty deep on lefty bullpen options between Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing and Phil Dumatrait.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Three-Bagger: Rosario, Kubeddyer & The Handbook
* La Velle posted an update on his blog yesterday that is definitely worth reading. It includes notes on various players and prospects. The most interesting tidbit, from my perspective, was that the Twins are trying minor-league outfielder Eddie Rosario at second base in instructional league, and plan to carry the experiment over to spring training.
Rosario, who turned 20 last month, has played the outfield exclusively in his minor-league career, which thus far has spanned only 118 games. He had a breakout season in the Appalachian Rookie League this year, batting .337/.397/.670 with 21 home runs and 60 RBI in only 67 games.
Between Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales, Oswaldo Arcia and perhaps Miguel Sano, the Twins are overloaded with talented young outfielders that have a chance to help them in the coming years. Rosario's bat is certainly looking legit after he led the Appy League in homers. If the Twins can successfully shift him from an area of organizational strength to an area of extreme weakness (middle infield), it'd be a huge win.
Rosario has played only one full professional season, so a transition to the infield could be easier than it would be for, say, Ben Revere. La Velle noted that the Puerto Rican prospect was "all for" trying second base, and that front office execs Deron Johnson and Mike Radcliff both said Rosario "looked pretty good there during instructional league."
* The same article wonders whether the Twins can afford to bring back both of their long-tenured free agent outfielders this offseason. Jason Kubel has been with the organization for 11 years and Michael Cuddyer for 14 years, so these are decisions that will be taken very seriously.
There are a lot of good arguments for bringing Cuddyer back, and I'd guess that if it comes down to a choice between the two, the Twins are leaning heavily in that direction. However, from a pure baseball standpoint, Kubel sure looks like the better bet to provide good value for the money over the life of a new contract.
After posting an .805 OPS in 2008 and a .907 OPS in 2009, Kubel is coming off a pair of down years where injuries have been an issue. This, combined with his defensive deficiencies and platoon split (which softened this year), will keep him from commanding a king's ransom on the open market. However, even with his reduced productivity over the last two years, his core numbers (.756 OPS, 33 HR, 150 RBI) are very similar to Cuddyer's (.777 OPS, 34 HR, 151 RBI).
Yes, Kubel is another lefty bat and he doesn't offer the same flexibility or leadership that Cuddyer does. But he's also three years younger and he's going to be a whole lot cheaper. It will be interesting to see how those factors weigh on the Twins.
* I'm pleased to finally announce that this year's edition of the TwinsCentric GM Handbook is now available for pre-order. If you lock up your copy now, you'll get a nice discount at 5.99 -- down from the official price of 9.99 -- and you won't have to wait long for your copy, as we'll be dropping the e-book PDF file in your virtual mailbox as soon as the World Series is finished. You can click on the image below to secure yours:
As always, the Handbook puts you in the shoes of the Twins GM and provides all the information you'll need to navigate the offseason and renovate the roster. We've got full run-downs of the free agent market, trade targets, arbitration eligibles, 40-man roster decisions and more, all packed with insight and advice from your TwinsCentric guides.
The GM Handbook has become our flagship product, and I hope that everyone who's interested in a comprehensive preview of this hugely important offseason will pick up a copy. Thanks, as always, for the support.
Rosario, who turned 20 last month, has played the outfield exclusively in his minor-league career, which thus far has spanned only 118 games. He had a breakout season in the Appalachian Rookie League this year, batting .337/.397/.670 with 21 home runs and 60 RBI in only 67 games.
Between Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales, Oswaldo Arcia and perhaps Miguel Sano, the Twins are overloaded with talented young outfielders that have a chance to help them in the coming years. Rosario's bat is certainly looking legit after he led the Appy League in homers. If the Twins can successfully shift him from an area of organizational strength to an area of extreme weakness (middle infield), it'd be a huge win.
Rosario has played only one full professional season, so a transition to the infield could be easier than it would be for, say, Ben Revere. La Velle noted that the Puerto Rican prospect was "all for" trying second base, and that front office execs Deron Johnson and Mike Radcliff both said Rosario "looked pretty good there during instructional league."
* The same article wonders whether the Twins can afford to bring back both of their long-tenured free agent outfielders this offseason. Jason Kubel has been with the organization for 11 years and Michael Cuddyer for 14 years, so these are decisions that will be taken very seriously.
There are a lot of good arguments for bringing Cuddyer back, and I'd guess that if it comes down to a choice between the two, the Twins are leaning heavily in that direction. However, from a pure baseball standpoint, Kubel sure looks like the better bet to provide good value for the money over the life of a new contract.
After posting an .805 OPS in 2008 and a .907 OPS in 2009, Kubel is coming off a pair of down years where injuries have been an issue. This, combined with his defensive deficiencies and platoon split (which softened this year), will keep him from commanding a king's ransom on the open market. However, even with his reduced productivity over the last two years, his core numbers (.756 OPS, 33 HR, 150 RBI) are very similar to Cuddyer's (.777 OPS, 34 HR, 151 RBI).
Yes, Kubel is another lefty bat and he doesn't offer the same flexibility or leadership that Cuddyer does. But he's also three years younger and he's going to be a whole lot cheaper. It will be interesting to see how those factors weigh on the Twins.
* I'm pleased to finally announce that this year's edition of the TwinsCentric GM Handbook is now available for pre-order. If you lock up your copy now, you'll get a nice discount at 5.99 -- down from the official price of 9.99 -- and you won't have to wait long for your copy, as we'll be dropping the e-book PDF file in your virtual mailbox as soon as the World Series is finished. You can click on the image below to secure yours:
As always, the Handbook puts you in the shoes of the Twins GM and provides all the information you'll need to navigate the offseason and renovate the roster. We've got full run-downs of the free agent market, trade targets, arbitration eligibles, 40-man roster decisions and more, all packed with insight and advice from your TwinsCentric guides.
The GM Handbook has become our flagship product, and I hope that everyone who's interested in a comprehensive preview of this hugely important offseason will pick up a copy. Thanks, as always, for the support.
Friday, October 07, 2011
What's Cuddyer Worth?
The Twins have three long-time staples hitting the free agent market this offseason, making it the biggest organizational crossroad since 2007, when the contracts of Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva expired.
The team had to let both those players go, while also trading Johan Santana, because in all three cases the contract demands were exorbitant. That's how it tends to go when 29 other teams are in the negotiating mix. With Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan all set to shop themselves this winter, some tough decisions lie ahead for the brain trust at Target Field.
Unlike 2007, the Twins are equipped financially to bring back all three players, although doing so might consume the bulk of their spending money. With a daunting variety of areas to address, as I outlined on Wednesday, it seems unlikely that all three players will be retained. I suspect that one or even two of these familiar faces will land elsewhere.
Of the three, Kubel is probably most expendable. Losing his reliable righty-mashing ability would sting, but the Twins -- ideally -- already have two middle-of-the-lineup left-handed bats on the roster and he's coming off a pair of underwhelming seasons. On the flip side, his injury hampered season might keep him affordable.
Nathan would be tougher to lose. The Twins are bereft of quality right-handed relief arms, and Matt Capps almost certainly won't be back. The team will clearly decline Nathan's $12.5 million option for next year but might be able to get him back on a two-year deal at the same price. If not, there will be quite a few alternatives on the market.
Cuddyer is the guy that the Twins really don't want to let get away. He's generally considered the clubhouse leader and is cherished by coaches, teammates and fans alike. He's the team's best outfield power bat, and his ability to play first has been invaluable with Justin Morneau's ongoing injury issues. If you remove Cuddyer from the roster, the best remaining right-handed bat might be… Danny Valencia? Trevor Plouffe? Not good.
Unfortunately, of the three players discussed here Cuddyer has the most leverage entering this offseason. He's coming off a very solid campaign in which he posted an .805 OPS with 20 home runs while making his first All-Star team. He might just be the second-best right-handed bat on the market behind Albert Pujols.
The Twins reportedly offered Cuddyer a two-year, $16 million extension during the season, but they had to know that wouldn't come close to getting it done. Given his high rank within the free agent class and his sterling reputation, Cuddyer should be able to get three or even four years at an average of $10 million or more.
At that point, the Twins need to look past their affinity for him and honestly assess how they think his game will age. Locking into a contract that assures a potentially declining 36-year-old big money down the line is not a situation the Twins need to get themselves into.
My guess? The Twins' best offer will be a three-year deal, at maybe a little over $30 million, with a team option for 2015. If Cuddyer won't budge on a guaranteed fourth year, I'd guess he'll be playing for another team next season.
The team had to let both those players go, while also trading Johan Santana, because in all three cases the contract demands were exorbitant. That's how it tends to go when 29 other teams are in the negotiating mix. With Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan all set to shop themselves this winter, some tough decisions lie ahead for the brain trust at Target Field.
Unlike 2007, the Twins are equipped financially to bring back all three players, although doing so might consume the bulk of their spending money. With a daunting variety of areas to address, as I outlined on Wednesday, it seems unlikely that all three players will be retained. I suspect that one or even two of these familiar faces will land elsewhere.
Of the three, Kubel is probably most expendable. Losing his reliable righty-mashing ability would sting, but the Twins -- ideally -- already have two middle-of-the-lineup left-handed bats on the roster and he's coming off a pair of underwhelming seasons. On the flip side, his injury hampered season might keep him affordable.
Nathan would be tougher to lose. The Twins are bereft of quality right-handed relief arms, and Matt Capps almost certainly won't be back. The team will clearly decline Nathan's $12.5 million option for next year but might be able to get him back on a two-year deal at the same price. If not, there will be quite a few alternatives on the market.
Cuddyer is the guy that the Twins really don't want to let get away. He's generally considered the clubhouse leader and is cherished by coaches, teammates and fans alike. He's the team's best outfield power bat, and his ability to play first has been invaluable with Justin Morneau's ongoing injury issues. If you remove Cuddyer from the roster, the best remaining right-handed bat might be… Danny Valencia? Trevor Plouffe? Not good.
Unfortunately, of the three players discussed here Cuddyer has the most leverage entering this offseason. He's coming off a very solid campaign in which he posted an .805 OPS with 20 home runs while making his first All-Star team. He might just be the second-best right-handed bat on the market behind Albert Pujols.
The Twins reportedly offered Cuddyer a two-year, $16 million extension during the season, but they had to know that wouldn't come close to getting it done. Given his high rank within the free agent class and his sterling reputation, Cuddyer should be able to get three or even four years at an average of $10 million or more.
At that point, the Twins need to look past their affinity for him and honestly assess how they think his game will age. Locking into a contract that assures a potentially declining 36-year-old big money down the line is not a situation the Twins need to get themselves into.
My guess? The Twins' best offer will be a three-year deal, at maybe a little over $30 million, with a team option for 2015. If Cuddyer won't budge on a guaranteed fourth year, I'd guess he'll be playing for another team next season.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Three-Bagger: Perkins, Heroes & Rookie Whiffs
* Glen Perkins surrendered the game-winning homer to Brandon Inge on Saturday night, continuing a troubling trend of poor performance for the lefty. He's has been charged with at least one earned run in nine of 16 appearances since the beginning of August.
It seems fair to speculate that Perkins may be wearing down here late in the season. He worked almost exclusively as a starter in the minors and has never experienced this type of workload before.
Perkins had never pitched in more than 39 games in a prior season; Saturday's appearance was his 59th this year.
* Michael Cuddyer earned praise from several local scribes a couple weeks ago when he heroically asked into the lineup for a meaningless game after taking a pitch to the wrist the night before. Since the plunking, Cuddyer has gone 4-for-34 (.118) with 10 strikeouts, and now the wrist has been bothering him enough that he hasn't played in a week.
Meanwhile, Joe Mauer, who sat out to let a sore neck heal at the same time Cuddyer was playing through a debilitating wrist injury, is back in the lineup and producing. He even a caught a game in Detroit over the weekend -- his first time since August 20th.
Turns out resting might actually be the smart approach with certain injuries rather than toughing it out and playing hurt in order to satisfy some ridiculous tenet of machismo. Imagine that.
* In his first 19 major-league plate appearances, Joe Benson has three hits and seven strikeouts. I wrote last week that whiffs figure to be a major issue for the promising young outfielder.
It seems fair to speculate that Perkins may be wearing down here late in the season. He worked almost exclusively as a starter in the minors and has never experienced this type of workload before.
Perkins had never pitched in more than 39 games in a prior season; Saturday's appearance was his 59th this year.
* Michael Cuddyer earned praise from several local scribes a couple weeks ago when he heroically asked into the lineup for a meaningless game after taking a pitch to the wrist the night before. Since the plunking, Cuddyer has gone 4-for-34 (.118) with 10 strikeouts, and now the wrist has been bothering him enough that he hasn't played in a week.
Meanwhile, Joe Mauer, who sat out to let a sore neck heal at the same time Cuddyer was playing through a debilitating wrist injury, is back in the lineup and producing. He even a caught a game in Detroit over the weekend -- his first time since August 20th.
Turns out resting might actually be the smart approach with certain injuries rather than toughing it out and playing hurt in order to satisfy some ridiculous tenet of machismo. Imagine that.
* In his first 19 major-league plate appearances, Joe Benson has three hits and seven strikeouts. I wrote last week that whiffs figure to be a major issue for the promising young outfielder.
Monday, August 08, 2011
Contemplating Cuddyer and Kubel
Only two American League teams (Oakland and Seattle) have hit fewer home runs than Minnesota this year. After hitting just one homer at Target Field over the weekend while the visiting White Sox clubbed seven, the Twins are on pace to barely edge the 100-homer mark as a team. If they fail to reach triple digits, it would be the first time since 1980 that it's happened for this franchise.
Yes, the Twins are amidst a rather distressing power drought. And unfortunately, the outlook going forward is none too bright.
Jim Thome is not likely to return next year. There's a good chance Delmon Young will be non-tendered or traded. And no player in the Twins' farm system can safely be projected as more than a 15-HR guy in the majors.
These factors add urgency to the decisions involving Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel in the upcoming offseason. Both slugging outfielders are eligible to become free agents, and losing the two of them could prove devastating for an organization that is already desperately short on pop.
Unsurprisingly, the Twins have made it clear that they intend to pursue Cuddyer, with reports suggesting that they've already uncharacteristically tried to open negotiations midseason by offering a two-year, $16 million extension.
Cuddyer and his agent smartly turned down that offer, knowing his outstanding season amidst the Twins' meltdown in 2011 has raised his price tag. Assuming he finishes strong, I'd be surprised if Cuddyer were asking for any less than three years and $30 million once he hits the open market. He can probably get it somewhere. Hopefully not here.
I appreciate all the things Cuddyer brings as a member of this team, but the Twins are already in bad shape with some bulky contracts and handing an expensive three-year deal to a 33-year-old who's never put together consecutive good seasons is bad business.
If it comes down to a choice between the two, the Twins would probably be better off re-upping Kubel. While he, like Cuddyer, has looked great at the plate this season, Kubel has missed significant time due to injury so his stock won't be quite as high.
Prior to this year, Kubel had played at least 140 games in three straight seasons, averaging 23 home runs and 91 RBI. While his platoon splits have been a chronic issue (one that's showing signs of improvement), Kubel's bat has been at least as good as Cuddyer's and he's also three years younger.
If the Twins want to loosen the purse strings and re-sign both outfielders, so be it. But keeping Cuddyer with a hefty contract at the expense of Kubel would be a mistake. In fact, outbidding any other motivated GM for Cuddyer's services will likely backfire in the long run, worsening an already murky financial situation.
Unless Cuddy is willing to accept a hometown discount, the Twins ought to offer arbitration, let the Type A free agent walk and use the draft picks next year to replenish a depleted minor-league system.
Yes, the Twins are amidst a rather distressing power drought. And unfortunately, the outlook going forward is none too bright.
Jim Thome is not likely to return next year. There's a good chance Delmon Young will be non-tendered or traded. And no player in the Twins' farm system can safely be projected as more than a 15-HR guy in the majors.
These factors add urgency to the decisions involving Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel in the upcoming offseason. Both slugging outfielders are eligible to become free agents, and losing the two of them could prove devastating for an organization that is already desperately short on pop.
Unsurprisingly, the Twins have made it clear that they intend to pursue Cuddyer, with reports suggesting that they've already uncharacteristically tried to open negotiations midseason by offering a two-year, $16 million extension.
Cuddyer and his agent smartly turned down that offer, knowing his outstanding season amidst the Twins' meltdown in 2011 has raised his price tag. Assuming he finishes strong, I'd be surprised if Cuddyer were asking for any less than three years and $30 million once he hits the open market. He can probably get it somewhere. Hopefully not here.
I appreciate all the things Cuddyer brings as a member of this team, but the Twins are already in bad shape with some bulky contracts and handing an expensive three-year deal to a 33-year-old who's never put together consecutive good seasons is bad business.
If it comes down to a choice between the two, the Twins would probably be better off re-upping Kubel. While he, like Cuddyer, has looked great at the plate this season, Kubel has missed significant time due to injury so his stock won't be quite as high.
Prior to this year, Kubel had played at least 140 games in three straight seasons, averaging 23 home runs and 91 RBI. While his platoon splits have been a chronic issue (one that's showing signs of improvement), Kubel's bat has been at least as good as Cuddyer's and he's also three years younger.
If the Twins want to loosen the purse strings and re-sign both outfielders, so be it. But keeping Cuddyer with a hefty contract at the expense of Kubel would be a mistake. In fact, outbidding any other motivated GM for Cuddyer's services will likely backfire in the long run, worsening an already murky financial situation.
Unless Cuddy is willing to accept a hometown discount, the Twins ought to offer arbitration, let the Type A free agent walk and use the draft picks next year to replenish a depleted minor-league system.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Return on Investment
After losing 11-0 last night to an Orioles team that had dropped eight straight, the Twins sit at 6-11 on the season. They have been outscored 83-50 in 17 games, averaging less than three runs per contest. They rank last in the major leagues in runs, walks, home runs and OPS.
Things are as grim as can be.
They will get better. Even with the injuries and the presence of offensive black holes like Alexi Casilla and Drew Butera, the Twins are not going to remain the worst-hitting team in baseball for long. They're too talented.
But the inevitability of improvement for their mind-numbingly bad offensive start does nothing to erase the more legitimate long-term concerns that have manifested in the early going.
In analyzing the 2011 squad as the season approached, the one thing that most deeply concerned me was the precariousness of the club's principal investments. Yes, the Twins pumped payroll up to an all-time high $112 million, but much of that money was tied up in significant question marks.
It wasn't the cheap role players like Casilla and Butera who would determine this team's fate. It was the hobbled veterans whose bulky salaries forced the team to part with quality players like Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, not to mention the entire bullpen.
So far, those pricy question marks have not fared well.
Joe Mauer, earning $23 million, struggled to a .554 OPS with one-extra base hit in nine games before landing on the disabled list with a bizarre assortment of ailments. There's no firm timetable in place for his return.
Justin Morneau, earning $14 million, has admirably returned to the field after a long battle with post-concussion syndrome, but has not been at all effective. He managed 11 hits -- no homers -- and three walks in 56 plate appearances before missing the last three games with the flu.
Joe Nathan, earning $11.5 million, also earns respect points for his recovery from serious injury, but it is evident that he does not belong on the major-league roster at this point. He is only hurting the club by occupying a spot in a bullpen that is already lacking trustworthy options.
The underrated Michael Cuddyer, earning $10.5 million, owns a .608 OPS with no homers, and still hasn't driven in one run in 16 games.
Those four players account for nearly half the payroll, and none have yielded any meaningful production up to this point. Throw in the struggles of moderately expensive players like Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Delmon Young and Matt Capps, and it shouldn't be difficult to see why the team is struggling so mightily.
The front office invested a lot of money into this 2011 roster and so far they've been ripped off by the hideous product on the field. Hopefully these players can get over their illnesses, rust, slumps and mental blocks in a hurry, because these dismal performances are getting harder to watch for fans and harder to justify for a $112M team that should be amidst a window of contention.
Things are as grim as can be.
They will get better. Even with the injuries and the presence of offensive black holes like Alexi Casilla and Drew Butera, the Twins are not going to remain the worst-hitting team in baseball for long. They're too talented.
But the inevitability of improvement for their mind-numbingly bad offensive start does nothing to erase the more legitimate long-term concerns that have manifested in the early going.
In analyzing the 2011 squad as the season approached, the one thing that most deeply concerned me was the precariousness of the club's principal investments. Yes, the Twins pumped payroll up to an all-time high $112 million, but much of that money was tied up in significant question marks.
It wasn't the cheap role players like Casilla and Butera who would determine this team's fate. It was the hobbled veterans whose bulky salaries forced the team to part with quality players like Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, not to mention the entire bullpen.
So far, those pricy question marks have not fared well.
Joe Mauer, earning $23 million, struggled to a .554 OPS with one-extra base hit in nine games before landing on the disabled list with a bizarre assortment of ailments. There's no firm timetable in place for his return.
Justin Morneau, earning $14 million, has admirably returned to the field after a long battle with post-concussion syndrome, but has not been at all effective. He managed 11 hits -- no homers -- and three walks in 56 plate appearances before missing the last three games with the flu.
Joe Nathan, earning $11.5 million, also earns respect points for his recovery from serious injury, but it is evident that he does not belong on the major-league roster at this point. He is only hurting the club by occupying a spot in a bullpen that is already lacking trustworthy options.
The underrated Michael Cuddyer, earning $10.5 million, owns a .608 OPS with no homers, and still hasn't driven in one run in 16 games.
Those four players account for nearly half the payroll, and none have yielded any meaningful production up to this point. Throw in the struggles of moderately expensive players like Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Delmon Young and Matt Capps, and it shouldn't be difficult to see why the team is struggling so mightily.
The front office invested a lot of money into this 2011 roster and so far they've been ripped off by the hideous product on the field. Hopefully these players can get over their illnesses, rust, slumps and mental blocks in a hurry, because these dismal performances are getting harder to watch for fans and harder to justify for a $112M team that should be amidst a window of contention.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Position Analysis: Right Field
Likely Starter: Michael Cuddyer
Potential Backups: Jason Kubel, Jason Repko, Ben Revere
Right field is Michael Cuddyer's position.
Well, sort of.
Over the past two years, Cuddyer has frequently been asked to move away from his established home, taking over first base after Justin Morneau went down in September of 2009 and last year bouncing around the infield before again settling at first in place of a sidelined Morneau.
Cuddyer has received more than his fair share of adulation from coaches, teammates and media for his willingness and ability to shift around the field, but lost in that praise is the fact that he's not terribly adept at fielding any of these positions and last year he was extremely disappointing offensively.
The average right fielder in the American League hit .276/.350/.441 in 2010. The average first baseman hit .259/.345/.443. Cuddyer, despite being an $8.5 million player who was labeled team MVP by his manager, posted a .271/.336/.417 line while splitting time mostly between those two positions. He made 25 more plate appearances than he did in 2009 and yet hit less than half as many home runs. He grounded into 26 double plays, a total that led the team and ranked second in the AL.
Despite the dismal performance, Cuddyer will be paid $10.5 million this season because of a ridiculous contract stipulation that forced the team to activate his 2011 option before the 2010 season. I'm not entirely convinced the Twins would have declined the lucrative option even if it had been triggered this past winter, but there's really no reasonable case to be made that Cuddyer is worth his hefty salary for this season based on last year's performance so he has much to prove, especially with free agency looming.
Cuddyer was one of a number of Twins players to undergo surgery during the offseason, an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee to alleviate soreness that, he told reporters at the time, had bothered him all season. This is a likely culprit for the hugely underwhelming numbers at the plate, and presuming that the issue (along with a foot wart removal that held him out of early spring training) is now fixed, we should expect much more from the right fielder this year.
Will Cuddyer actually stick in right all year long? That's obviously the hope, but if anything should go wrong with Morneau, Cuddy will be breaking out the first baseman's mitt and taking his act to the infield. In that event, Jason Kubel would once again take over regular duties in right. Cuddyer's better suited for right field than first base and Kubel's certainly better suited for DH than the outfield, so it's in the best interests of everyone that Morneau stay healthy and on the field this year.
Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Cuddyer: .275/.340/.470, 20 HR, 90 RBI
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| Paul Battaglia, AP |
Right field is Michael Cuddyer's position.
Well, sort of.
Over the past two years, Cuddyer has frequently been asked to move away from his established home, taking over first base after Justin Morneau went down in September of 2009 and last year bouncing around the infield before again settling at first in place of a sidelined Morneau.
Cuddyer has received more than his fair share of adulation from coaches, teammates and media for his willingness and ability to shift around the field, but lost in that praise is the fact that he's not terribly adept at fielding any of these positions and last year he was extremely disappointing offensively.
The average right fielder in the American League hit .276/.350/.441 in 2010. The average first baseman hit .259/.345/.443. Cuddyer, despite being an $8.5 million player who was labeled team MVP by his manager, posted a .271/.336/.417 line while splitting time mostly between those two positions. He made 25 more plate appearances than he did in 2009 and yet hit less than half as many home runs. He grounded into 26 double plays, a total that led the team and ranked second in the AL.
Despite the dismal performance, Cuddyer will be paid $10.5 million this season because of a ridiculous contract stipulation that forced the team to activate his 2011 option before the 2010 season. I'm not entirely convinced the Twins would have declined the lucrative option even if it had been triggered this past winter, but there's really no reasonable case to be made that Cuddyer is worth his hefty salary for this season based on last year's performance so he has much to prove, especially with free agency looming.
Cuddyer was one of a number of Twins players to undergo surgery during the offseason, an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee to alleviate soreness that, he told reporters at the time, had bothered him all season. This is a likely culprit for the hugely underwhelming numbers at the plate, and presuming that the issue (along with a foot wart removal that held him out of early spring training) is now fixed, we should expect much more from the right fielder this year.
Will Cuddyer actually stick in right all year long? That's obviously the hope, but if anything should go wrong with Morneau, Cuddy will be breaking out the first baseman's mitt and taking his act to the infield. In that event, Jason Kubel would once again take over regular duties in right. Cuddyer's better suited for right field than first base and Kubel's certainly better suited for DH than the outfield, so it's in the best interests of everyone that Morneau stay healthy and on the field this year.
Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Cuddyer: .275/.340/.470, 20 HR, 90 RBI
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Position Analysis: First Base
Likely Starter: Justin Morneau
When he's been in the lineup, production has never been an issue for Justin Morneau. Over the past five years, the Canadian first baseman has consistently been among the most productive in the league at his position, averaging a .900 OPS with 27 home runs and 105 RBI.
The issue for Morneau, recently, has been staying in the lineup. In both 2009 and 2010, he missed lengthy stretches of time due to freak injuries; first a fractured vertebrae, then a severe concussion.
To their credit, the Twins have made do without the former MVP in each of those two seasons, surging to postseason berths with Michael Cuddyer filling in at first base. Still, it's clearly a situation they'd like to avoid this year. There's no doubt that Morneau, with his uncommon ability to hit for both average and power with increasingly excellent plate discipline, can have a profound impact on the offense's fortunes when he's performing at peak level.
Morneau missed the final three months of the 2010 season due to concussion symptoms that persisted into the offseason and even into early spring. He overcame a huge hurdle last week by making his Grapefruit League debut on Friday, marking the first time in more than eight months he'd taken part in a live baseball game.
By his account, Morneau's symptoms are finally just now clearing up. That the afflictions which haunted him for eight months would suddenly disappear just weeks before the start of the baseball season seems awfully convenient, so it's entirely possible that they've grown more mild and he's simply decided to start pushing through them a little more than he's been willing to in the past. Either way, Morneau is now taking part in all baseball-related activities and, barring a setback, he's on pace to take the field on April 1st when the Twins return to Rogers Centre for the first time since he suffered his concussion there last July.
Projecting the slugger's performance for this year is exceedingly difficult. He's a tremendously talented hitter and last year, prior to the mishap in Toronto, he was putting together the most impressive offensive campaign of his career. If he can pick up where he left off it'd be a coup, but I'm hesitant to expect that for two reasons: residual injury effects and plain old rust.
Ideally, Morneau will be completely free of symptoms from the get-go this season, putting the traumatic brain injury behind him without issue. That's a best case scenario but probably not an entirely realistic one. Given the persistence of the concussion's lingering after-effects throughout the offseason it's hard to imagine he won't at least experience some minor symptoms as he attempts to return to everyday duty. Should he encounter some level of fogginess, nausea or sensitivity to light, one has to wonder how it will impact his performance as he attempts to read, register and swing at 95 mph fastballs and wicked breaking pitches.
Even if he does fully overcome concussion symptoms, we must acknowledge the fact that Morneau is returning from what is likely his longest hiatus from the sport since he began playing it. Not only has he been unable to participate in games for the past eight months, he has largely been unable to even take part in off-the-field activities designed to keep his skills sharp (such as batting practice and fielding drills). If he gets off to a bit of a slow start, it shouldn't come as a surprise.
It goes without saying that Morneau will now be extremely susceptible to any type of blow to the head. While every possible measure will be taken to protect his cranium, certain incidents are unavoidable. I suspect the Twins will show maximum caution with him this year, providing him with more frequent days off and holding him out of the lineup for weeks (or months) should symptoms reemerge.
With this being the case, it seemingly would have made sense for the front office to invest in some sort of legitimate backup who could keep Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome in their natural (and most suitable) roles. Unfortunately, it looks like Cuddyer will be Morneau's sole legitimate backup; no other candidate to play the position can be found on the 40-man roster (save for Chris Parmelee, who is a far cry from big-league ready).
Much like with Joe Mauer, Morneau's health is a question mark and the depth behind him is less than stellar, so the Twins will have to cross their fingers and hope for the best. We have a lot more reason for optimism than we did just a couple weeks ago, but there's a distant chasm between appearing in a couple exhibition games and permanently conquering one of the most serious concussion cases in recent history. Morneau's challenge is just beginning.
Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Morneau: .290/.360/.480, 25 HR, 100 RBI
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| Carlos Gonzalez, Star Tribune) |
Potential Backups: Michael Cuddyer, Justin Huber, Jeff Bailey
When he's been in the lineup, production has never been an issue for Justin Morneau. Over the past five years, the Canadian first baseman has consistently been among the most productive in the league at his position, averaging a .900 OPS with 27 home runs and 105 RBI.
The issue for Morneau, recently, has been staying in the lineup. In both 2009 and 2010, he missed lengthy stretches of time due to freak injuries; first a fractured vertebrae, then a severe concussion.
To their credit, the Twins have made do without the former MVP in each of those two seasons, surging to postseason berths with Michael Cuddyer filling in at first base. Still, it's clearly a situation they'd like to avoid this year. There's no doubt that Morneau, with his uncommon ability to hit for both average and power with increasingly excellent plate discipline, can have a profound impact on the offense's fortunes when he's performing at peak level.
Morneau missed the final three months of the 2010 season due to concussion symptoms that persisted into the offseason and even into early spring. He overcame a huge hurdle last week by making his Grapefruit League debut on Friday, marking the first time in more than eight months he'd taken part in a live baseball game.
By his account, Morneau's symptoms are finally just now clearing up. That the afflictions which haunted him for eight months would suddenly disappear just weeks before the start of the baseball season seems awfully convenient, so it's entirely possible that they've grown more mild and he's simply decided to start pushing through them a little more than he's been willing to in the past. Either way, Morneau is now taking part in all baseball-related activities and, barring a setback, he's on pace to take the field on April 1st when the Twins return to Rogers Centre for the first time since he suffered his concussion there last July.
Projecting the slugger's performance for this year is exceedingly difficult. He's a tremendously talented hitter and last year, prior to the mishap in Toronto, he was putting together the most impressive offensive campaign of his career. If he can pick up where he left off it'd be a coup, but I'm hesitant to expect that for two reasons: residual injury effects and plain old rust.
Ideally, Morneau will be completely free of symptoms from the get-go this season, putting the traumatic brain injury behind him without issue. That's a best case scenario but probably not an entirely realistic one. Given the persistence of the concussion's lingering after-effects throughout the offseason it's hard to imagine he won't at least experience some minor symptoms as he attempts to return to everyday duty. Should he encounter some level of fogginess, nausea or sensitivity to light, one has to wonder how it will impact his performance as he attempts to read, register and swing at 95 mph fastballs and wicked breaking pitches.
Even if he does fully overcome concussion symptoms, we must acknowledge the fact that Morneau is returning from what is likely his longest hiatus from the sport since he began playing it. Not only has he been unable to participate in games for the past eight months, he has largely been unable to even take part in off-the-field activities designed to keep his skills sharp (such as batting practice and fielding drills). If he gets off to a bit of a slow start, it shouldn't come as a surprise.
It goes without saying that Morneau will now be extremely susceptible to any type of blow to the head. While every possible measure will be taken to protect his cranium, certain incidents are unavoidable. I suspect the Twins will show maximum caution with him this year, providing him with more frequent days off and holding him out of the lineup for weeks (or months) should symptoms reemerge.
With this being the case, it seemingly would have made sense for the front office to invest in some sort of legitimate backup who could keep Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome in their natural (and most suitable) roles. Unfortunately, it looks like Cuddyer will be Morneau's sole legitimate backup; no other candidate to play the position can be found on the 40-man roster (save for Chris Parmelee, who is a far cry from big-league ready).
Much like with Joe Mauer, Morneau's health is a question mark and the depth behind him is less than stellar, so the Twins will have to cross their fingers and hope for the best. We have a lot more reason for optimism than we did just a couple weeks ago, but there's a distant chasm between appearing in a couple exhibition games and permanently conquering one of the most serious concussion cases in recent history. Morneau's challenge is just beginning.
Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Morneau: .290/.360/.480, 25 HR, 100 RBI
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
The Core Four
In 2009, the Twins scored 817 runs, ranking them fourth in the American League. They hit 172 home runs, which -- while below the league average -- marked their highest total in the past six years and an increase of 61 from the prior season.
They managed this relatively gaudy offensive production despite underwhelming performances from such regulars as Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, Joe Crede, Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez.
The lineup's overall success in '09 was keyed by four players that comprised the heart of the lineup: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Each of the four posted an OPS of .862 or higher, went deep at least 28 times and drove in at least 94 runs, transforming an otherwise sub par offense into one of the best in the league.
Last year, the Twins' lineup featured greater balance, but scored 45 fewer runs and hit 30 fewer homers. To pinpoint this drop-off in production we need look no further than those four players.
Mauer struggled with injuries and adjustments to his new home park; his home run total dropped from 28 to nine and his OPS dropped by 160 points. Morneau was tremendous over the first half of the season but didn't play a game after July 7, finishing with career lows in home runs (18) and RBI (56). Cuddyer never seemed to get his power swing going, tallying less than half as many home runs as the previous year (from 32 to 14) and posting the lowest full-season slugging percentage of his career (.417). Kubel saw his OPS drop from .907 to .750.
In my opinion, the lineup has gotten worse around these four players since last year. I see Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka as offensive downgrades from Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, and I have a hard time expecting the same kind of production from the likes of Jim Thome and Danny Valencia.
Even if those auxiliary players don't pan out as the team hopes, though, it doesn't mean the offense can't be more productive overall. If the four players at the heart of the order can move closer to their 2009 levels of production, they can change the entire complexion of the lineup, especially with Delmon Young now adding another legitimate power bat to the mix.
Whether or not these hitters can rebound will be largely dependent on health. It seems fair to say none of the four were completely healthy last year, and unfortunately three of them are already dealing with injury issues this spring that have prevented them from being able to take the field for a game thus far.
If the "Core Four" can put these pesky problems behind them and remain relatively healthy throughout the summer, they could easily be the difference between a mediocre lineup and an upper-echelon one.
They managed this relatively gaudy offensive production despite underwhelming performances from such regulars as Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, Joe Crede, Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez.
The lineup's overall success in '09 was keyed by four players that comprised the heart of the lineup: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Each of the four posted an OPS of .862 or higher, went deep at least 28 times and drove in at least 94 runs, transforming an otherwise sub par offense into one of the best in the league.
Last year, the Twins' lineup featured greater balance, but scored 45 fewer runs and hit 30 fewer homers. To pinpoint this drop-off in production we need look no further than those four players.
Mauer struggled with injuries and adjustments to his new home park; his home run total dropped from 28 to nine and his OPS dropped by 160 points. Morneau was tremendous over the first half of the season but didn't play a game after July 7, finishing with career lows in home runs (18) and RBI (56). Cuddyer never seemed to get his power swing going, tallying less than half as many home runs as the previous year (from 32 to 14) and posting the lowest full-season slugging percentage of his career (.417). Kubel saw his OPS drop from .907 to .750.
In my opinion, the lineup has gotten worse around these four players since last year. I see Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka as offensive downgrades from Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, and I have a hard time expecting the same kind of production from the likes of Jim Thome and Danny Valencia.
Even if those auxiliary players don't pan out as the team hopes, though, it doesn't mean the offense can't be more productive overall. If the four players at the heart of the order can move closer to their 2009 levels of production, they can change the entire complexion of the lineup, especially with Delmon Young now adding another legitimate power bat to the mix.
Whether or not these hitters can rebound will be largely dependent on health. It seems fair to say none of the four were completely healthy last year, and unfortunately three of them are already dealing with injury issues this spring that have prevented them from being able to take the field for a game thus far.
If the "Core Four" can put these pesky problems behind them and remain relatively healthy throughout the summer, they could easily be the difference between a mediocre lineup and an upper-echelon one.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
The Backup Plan
Thursday marks the deadline for Twins pitchers and catchers to report to camp in Ft. Myers. It's an annual holiday for baseball fans, and this year it will serve as prelude to a very interesting six weeks leading up to the start of the regular season. Rarely has a Twins team entered spring training with as many questions needing to be answered as this one.
How will Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer look after going through minor offseason knee surgeries? How will Scott Baker's arm look after reports of a setback in his recovery from a seemingly minor elbow surgery? Can Joe Nathan return to form just 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery? How will the middle infield and bullpen shake out?
All important questions, to be sure, but without a doubt the most discussed topic over the next month-and-a-half will be Justin Morneau. Trying to return to baseball for the first time since suffering a concussion over seven months ago, the first baseman will have his every move and word closely scrutinized, especially with club officials hinting at the possibility that he might not be ready for Opening Day.
Everyone hopes for the best with Morneau this year. But there's a realistic chance that he suffers a setback and the team is forced to open the season without him in the lineup.
It's important that they have a plan in place for that scenario.
Last year, the Twins got by fine without Morneau by sliding Cuddyer to first, Jason Kubel to right, and Jim Thome to regular DH duty. Those players all return this year, but it's awfully optimistic to expect that plan to pay the same kind of dividends, especially if Morneau will be missing months and not weeks.
Cuddyer and Kubel are defensive liabilities when venturing out of their expected roles, and over time such liabilities become magnified. Meanwhile, it's hard to imagine Thome, who will turn 41 this season, playing almost every day without breaking down.
There's really no candidate other than Cuddyer to play first base (which makes one wonder what Ron Gardenhire would do if both he and Morneau were unavailable) but the Twins can limit Kubel's exposure in right field, which will help both his knees and their defense. Jason Repko is available, but Gardenhire will want to avoid writing his punchless bat into the lineup too frequently.
The door would be open for Ben Revere.
If the 22-year-old outfielder has another hot spring (last year he hit .326 in exhibition play) he could put himself in line for a quick call-up should Morneau open the season on the disabled list. Revere could serve as part-time right fielder, representing a massive defensive upgrade over Kubel and an offensive upgrade over Repko (especially against right-handed pitching). This would allow Thome to be used more as a bench bat and occasional DH, increasing his odds of staying healthy and productive throughout the summer.
The Twins would benefit from getting an extended look at Revere in the big leagues. Kubel and Cuddyer will both be free agents after this season, and Delmon Young could be due for another significant pay raise. There's a good chance that the team will have an opening at one or both of their corner outfield spots, and I'm sure the organization would like nothing more than for the inexpensive, speedy and likable Revere to step in. Gaining some valuable experience this year would help prepare him for the challenge.
Revere looked pretty raw in his first sampling of the majors last September, and he has yet to spend any time above the Double-A level in the minors. But, if he looks the part this spring, there's no denying that he's an appealing option should Cuddyer be forced to serve as the team's first baseman.
If he's able to make meaningful contributions to the big-league club less than four years after joining the pro ranks, Revere would go a long way toward proving wrong those of us who doubted the Twins' wisdom when they reached for him in the first round of the 2007 draft.
The image in this article is the first page of a story I wrote about Morneau and concussions for the Maple Street Press Twins Annual 2011, which can be ordered here. This is your chance to get it before it even hits newsstands. Thanks to all for the support!
How will Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer look after going through minor offseason knee surgeries? How will Scott Baker's arm look after reports of a setback in his recovery from a seemingly minor elbow surgery? Can Joe Nathan return to form just 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery? How will the middle infield and bullpen shake out?
 |
| Order the MSP Twins Annual 2011 |
Everyone hopes for the best with Morneau this year. But there's a realistic chance that he suffers a setback and the team is forced to open the season without him in the lineup.
It's important that they have a plan in place for that scenario.
Last year, the Twins got by fine without Morneau by sliding Cuddyer to first, Jason Kubel to right, and Jim Thome to regular DH duty. Those players all return this year, but it's awfully optimistic to expect that plan to pay the same kind of dividends, especially if Morneau will be missing months and not weeks.
Cuddyer and Kubel are defensive liabilities when venturing out of their expected roles, and over time such liabilities become magnified. Meanwhile, it's hard to imagine Thome, who will turn 41 this season, playing almost every day without breaking down.
There's really no candidate other than Cuddyer to play first base (which makes one wonder what Ron Gardenhire would do if both he and Morneau were unavailable) but the Twins can limit Kubel's exposure in right field, which will help both his knees and their defense. Jason Repko is available, but Gardenhire will want to avoid writing his punchless bat into the lineup too frequently.
The door would be open for Ben Revere.
If the 22-year-old outfielder has another hot spring (last year he hit .326 in exhibition play) he could put himself in line for a quick call-up should Morneau open the season on the disabled list. Revere could serve as part-time right fielder, representing a massive defensive upgrade over Kubel and an offensive upgrade over Repko (especially against right-handed pitching). This would allow Thome to be used more as a bench bat and occasional DH, increasing his odds of staying healthy and productive throughout the summer.
The Twins would benefit from getting an extended look at Revere in the big leagues. Kubel and Cuddyer will both be free agents after this season, and Delmon Young could be due for another significant pay raise. There's a good chance that the team will have an opening at one or both of their corner outfield spots, and I'm sure the organization would like nothing more than for the inexpensive, speedy and likable Revere to step in. Gaining some valuable experience this year would help prepare him for the challenge.
Revere looked pretty raw in his first sampling of the majors last September, and he has yet to spend any time above the Double-A level in the minors. But, if he looks the part this spring, there's no denying that he's an appealing option should Cuddyer be forced to serve as the team's first baseman.
If he's able to make meaningful contributions to the big-league club less than four years after joining the pro ranks, Revere would go a long way toward proving wrong those of us who doubted the Twins' wisdom when they reached for him in the first round of the 2007 draft.
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The image in this article is the first page of a story I wrote about Morneau and concussions for the Maple Street Press Twins Annual 2011, which can be ordered here. This is your chance to get it before it even hits newsstands. Thanks to all for the support!
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Michael Cuddyer: Underrated?
Last week, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark published his version of baseball's All Underrated Team. It was a fun little read with a few notable snubs, but I had to pause when I reached the right field section.
Stark listed Michael Cuddyer as one of the most underrated players in all of baseball.
The same Cuddyer who will make $10.5 million coming off an extremely disappointing campaign; who was described during that disappointing campaign by his manager as team MVP; who is widely cherished by a fan base that lovingly looks past his flaws in embracing his contagious smile and cannon arm... underrated? That's an awfully tough case to make.
In making it, Stark enlists the wisdom of an anonymous scout, who provides us with this jewel:
When he's at his best, Cuddyer is a very good hitter who helps the team significantly. Certainly this was the case in 2009, when his late surge was elemental in pushing the Twins to an unlikely postseason berth, and in 2006 when he hit .284/.362/.504 with 24 homers and 109 RBI. The problem is that in the surrounding seasons, the 32-year-old has annually posted a sub-.800 OPS with less than 20 home runs and mediocre (at best) defense at non-premium positions.
Right field and first base, the two spots where Cuddyer tends to spend most of his time, bear higher offensive expectations than anywhere else on the field. Even in his best seasons, Cuddyer has not ranked as one of the elite performers at his position, and when all is accounted for, his production could best be described as "solid" and "unexceptional."
A defender of Cuddyer will surely point to the outfielder's intangibles: his work ethic, his willingness to move around the field without complaint, his fan appeal, and so forth. I recognize and appreciate these things, but don't necessarily see how they go above and beyond what should be considered basic expectations for a professional athlete. Answering the manager's call to change positions, being friendly toward fans, and maintaining professional and respectable habits off the field -- these should be standards for a person being paid over $8 million to play baseball, no? Yet we frequently see these attributes glorified through media articles that minimize his undeniably underwhelming production on the field, perhaps because Cuddyer has such a bright personality and is easy to like for those who spend time around him.
Underrated? Maybe by those who decry his supposed lack of clutch hitting and label him "Cruddy" or "Cuddaver," but that strikes me as a fringe minority. Unless my read on the general public perception of Cuddyer is way off, it seems to me like "overrated" would be a far more accurate descriptor.
That doesn't mean Cuddyer is a bad player, and it doesn't mean I mind having him on the team this year. The Twins will need his right-handed bat and he could be a real difference-maker if he can stay healthy and produce like he did in '09.
But in my mind he's got a long way to go before his actual value surpasses his perceived value, which continues to be inflated by flattering but ultimately empty portrayals like the ones provided by Stark and his scout.
Stark listed Michael Cuddyer as one of the most underrated players in all of baseball.
The same Cuddyer who will make $10.5 million coming off an extremely disappointing campaign; who was described during that disappointing campaign by his manager as team MVP; who is widely cherished by a fan base that lovingly looks past his flaws in embracing his contagious smile and cannon arm... underrated? That's an awfully tough case to make.
In making it, Stark enlists the wisdom of an anonymous scout, who provides us with this jewel:
"If I was going to give a one-word description that defines him, that would be the word 'winner,'" the scout said. "He's not the reason you win. But he makes everybody else better."I dare say this scout is doing a bit of a disservice to his profession by spouting vague and hackneyed cliches that offer no insight into Cuddyer's actual value as a player, but I digress.
When he's at his best, Cuddyer is a very good hitter who helps the team significantly. Certainly this was the case in 2009, when his late surge was elemental in pushing the Twins to an unlikely postseason berth, and in 2006 when he hit .284/.362/.504 with 24 homers and 109 RBI. The problem is that in the surrounding seasons, the 32-year-old has annually posted a sub-.800 OPS with less than 20 home runs and mediocre (at best) defense at non-premium positions.
Right field and first base, the two spots where Cuddyer tends to spend most of his time, bear higher offensive expectations than anywhere else on the field. Even in his best seasons, Cuddyer has not ranked as one of the elite performers at his position, and when all is accounted for, his production could best be described as "solid" and "unexceptional."
A defender of Cuddyer will surely point to the outfielder's intangibles: his work ethic, his willingness to move around the field without complaint, his fan appeal, and so forth. I recognize and appreciate these things, but don't necessarily see how they go above and beyond what should be considered basic expectations for a professional athlete. Answering the manager's call to change positions, being friendly toward fans, and maintaining professional and respectable habits off the field -- these should be standards for a person being paid over $8 million to play baseball, no? Yet we frequently see these attributes glorified through media articles that minimize his undeniably underwhelming production on the field, perhaps because Cuddyer has such a bright personality and is easy to like for those who spend time around him.
Underrated? Maybe by those who decry his supposed lack of clutch hitting and label him "Cruddy" or "Cuddaver," but that strikes me as a fringe minority. Unless my read on the general public perception of Cuddyer is way off, it seems to me like "overrated" would be a far more accurate descriptor.
That doesn't mean Cuddyer is a bad player, and it doesn't mean I mind having him on the team this year. The Twins will need his right-handed bat and he could be a real difference-maker if he can stay healthy and produce like he did in '09.
But in my mind he's got a long way to go before his actual value surpasses his perceived value, which continues to be inflated by flattering but ultimately empty portrayals like the ones provided by Stark and his scout.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Bill Smith's Greatest Weakness
Overall, Bill Smith's body of work as Twins general manager has been impressive. He took over at an extremely unenviable time, facing the task of letting two of the most popular and talented players in franchise history -- Torii Hunter and Johan Santana -- depart while keeping the team competitive. While that first winter was not a particularly strong one, Smith's Twins did surprisingly come within a game of the playoffs in 2008 and they won the division in each of the next two years.
The Twins front office under Smith has shown clear competency in a number of areas. These include targeting quality players in trades when their value is at a low point (JJ Hardy and Carl Pavano come to mind), acquiring valuable pieces through free agency (an area where Terry Ryan consistently struggled), drafting and being aggressive on the international market.
One area where Smith and Co. have not been particularly adept, however, is extending the contracts of their own players.
I'm not talking about the big fish. The heaping salaries of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan are hard to stomach now, obviously, but no one could have predicted they'd suffer the type of major injuries they did. One can question the wisdom of paying Joe Mauer $23 million annually for the better part of the next decade, but it was a fair contract and the Twins would have been ravaged if they hadn't locked the MVP up after '09.
What I take issue with is some of the extensions Smith has given lesser players on the roster, and specifically the timing of those extensions. While he's shown an ability to bring in external players at bargain prices because their value is down, he tends to negotiate contracts with his own players when their value is superficially high.
Denard Span and Nick Blackburn, both of whom signed long-term deals buying out all their arbitration years prior to this season, are good examples. Each of these players performed in '08 and '09 at a level that far exceeded their minor-league track record. Blackburn's numbers seemed particularly difficult to sustain, as it doesn't take a hardcore sabermetrician to understand that when you constantly pitch to contact and don't draw ground balls at a particularly dazzling rate, you're liable to get blown up.
Both those players took major steps backwards this season, which shouldn't have come as an enormous surprise based on their histories and tendencies. Yet, the team is now locked into paying them both over the next 3-4 years at a rate based on their performance in the first two seasons. If Span and Blackburn continue to decline, they'll keep being paid as strong producers due to contract extensions that were totally unnecessary given that both were under team control for several more years.
Nick Punto represents another example of badly timed extension. If the team wanted to keep him around (which you'd have to guess they always did), they could have handed him a low-money extension after his historically dismal 2007 season. Instead, they waited until he put together a solid effort in '08 -- his last year under contract -- and had to pay him $8.5 million over two years to keep him from exiting via free agency. As a result they've had to pay him $4 million in each of the past two years to put up a sub-.630 OPS while characteristically battling injuries.
And then there's the Michael Cuddyer contract. This stands out to me as Smith's most egregious and baffling move yet. It's not so much the contract itself -- a three-year deal worth $24 million -- I have a problem with, although one could certainly question handing him such a sizable deal after a very pedestrian 2007 campaign. It's the stipulation regarding the club option. It had to be exercised five days after the end of the 2009 World Series, meaning the Twins had to decide whether or not they would pay Cuddyer $10.5 million in 2011 before seeing what he did in 2010.
I can't recall ever seeing a contract structured like this before. I can see why Cuddyer's agent would push for it, knowing that Cuddyer would be moving past the age of 30 in 2009 and understanding that the team might be more likely to activate the lucrative option after that season than after his 2010 season where age could start taking a greater toll on the right fielder's performance. What I don't understand is why in the world Smith would agree to it.
Was it really a deal-breaker? Was Cuddyer going to turn down an extension that paid him an average of $8 million annually after a relatively mediocre season because the club option was to be exercised after the final guaranteed year of the deal, as with any normal contract? By structuring the deal like this, Smith opened himself to the possibility that Cuddyer would have a great '09 campaign, making the option look like a no-brainer and prompting the team to activate it, then follow up with a poor 2010 season that cast doubt on his future productivity. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened and now the Twins are forced to pay Cuddyer's hefty salary next year when under normal circumstances they'd have the option of letting him walk or negotiating a new deal.
I like most of what Smith has done, but the burdensome long-term contracts of players like Span, Blackburn, Punto and Cuddyer stand as glaring examples of a pervasive weakness. This winter, he'll once again have the opportunity to extend the contracts of several players. I mentioned Francisco Liriano as a top priority on Wednesday, and players like JJ Hardy, Alexi Casilla and Kevin Slowey are also candidates for extensions.
I can only hope that the front office shows better judgment in handing out such extensions this winter, because unlike the Yankees, this team simply isn't equipped financially to deal with a multitude of poorly concieved contracts.
The Twins front office under Smith has shown clear competency in a number of areas. These include targeting quality players in trades when their value is at a low point (JJ Hardy and Carl Pavano come to mind), acquiring valuable pieces through free agency (an area where Terry Ryan consistently struggled), drafting and being aggressive on the international market.
One area where Smith and Co. have not been particularly adept, however, is extending the contracts of their own players.
I'm not talking about the big fish. The heaping salaries of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan are hard to stomach now, obviously, but no one could have predicted they'd suffer the type of major injuries they did. One can question the wisdom of paying Joe Mauer $23 million annually for the better part of the next decade, but it was a fair contract and the Twins would have been ravaged if they hadn't locked the MVP up after '09.
What I take issue with is some of the extensions Smith has given lesser players on the roster, and specifically the timing of those extensions. While he's shown an ability to bring in external players at bargain prices because their value is down, he tends to negotiate contracts with his own players when their value is superficially high.
Denard Span and Nick Blackburn, both of whom signed long-term deals buying out all their arbitration years prior to this season, are good examples. Each of these players performed in '08 and '09 at a level that far exceeded their minor-league track record. Blackburn's numbers seemed particularly difficult to sustain, as it doesn't take a hardcore sabermetrician to understand that when you constantly pitch to contact and don't draw ground balls at a particularly dazzling rate, you're liable to get blown up.
Both those players took major steps backwards this season, which shouldn't have come as an enormous surprise based on their histories and tendencies. Yet, the team is now locked into paying them both over the next 3-4 years at a rate based on their performance in the first two seasons. If Span and Blackburn continue to decline, they'll keep being paid as strong producers due to contract extensions that were totally unnecessary given that both were under team control for several more years.
Nick Punto represents another example of badly timed extension. If the team wanted to keep him around (which you'd have to guess they always did), they could have handed him a low-money extension after his historically dismal 2007 season. Instead, they waited until he put together a solid effort in '08 -- his last year under contract -- and had to pay him $8.5 million over two years to keep him from exiting via free agency. As a result they've had to pay him $4 million in each of the past two years to put up a sub-.630 OPS while characteristically battling injuries.
And then there's the Michael Cuddyer contract. This stands out to me as Smith's most egregious and baffling move yet. It's not so much the contract itself -- a three-year deal worth $24 million -- I have a problem with, although one could certainly question handing him such a sizable deal after a very pedestrian 2007 campaign. It's the stipulation regarding the club option. It had to be exercised five days after the end of the 2009 World Series, meaning the Twins had to decide whether or not they would pay Cuddyer $10.5 million in 2011 before seeing what he did in 2010.
I can't recall ever seeing a contract structured like this before. I can see why Cuddyer's agent would push for it, knowing that Cuddyer would be moving past the age of 30 in 2009 and understanding that the team might be more likely to activate the lucrative option after that season than after his 2010 season where age could start taking a greater toll on the right fielder's performance. What I don't understand is why in the world Smith would agree to it.
Was it really a deal-breaker? Was Cuddyer going to turn down an extension that paid him an average of $8 million annually after a relatively mediocre season because the club option was to be exercised after the final guaranteed year of the deal, as with any normal contract? By structuring the deal like this, Smith opened himself to the possibility that Cuddyer would have a great '09 campaign, making the option look like a no-brainer and prompting the team to activate it, then follow up with a poor 2010 season that cast doubt on his future productivity. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened and now the Twins are forced to pay Cuddyer's hefty salary next year when under normal circumstances they'd have the option of letting him walk or negotiating a new deal.
I like most of what Smith has done, but the burdensome long-term contracts of players like Span, Blackburn, Punto and Cuddyer stand as glaring examples of a pervasive weakness. This winter, he'll once again have the opportunity to extend the contracts of several players. I mentioned Francisco Liriano as a top priority on Wednesday, and players like JJ Hardy, Alexi Casilla and Kevin Slowey are also candidates for extensions.
I can only hope that the front office shows better judgment in handing out such extensions this winter, because unlike the Yankees, this team simply isn't equipped financially to deal with a multitude of poorly concieved contracts.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
The Cuddyer Conundrum
Michael Cuddyer is a pretty controversial player.
Some believe he's a consummate teammate whose willingness to move around the field extends his value drastically beyond what he does at the plate. Others believe his relatively poor defense at each position he can fill makes him a liability.
Some believe his ability to provide right-handed power has been vital to the success of a lefty-dominated lineup over the past several years. Others believe that, with his inconsistency and lack of clutch hitting at the dish, his offensive game is hugely overrated.
Some believe his effervescent and affable nature helps keep the clubhouse loose. Others believe his lack of fiery competitiveness is the type of thing that keeps the team from being able to step up to the big bad Yanks.
Regardless of where you fall in this debate, it's no secret how the Twins view Cuddyer. Ron Gardenhire called him the team's MVP earlier in the season, and while that statement is laughable based on Cuddy's production, John Bonnes was astute in pointing out a few weeks ago that the manager has a better grasp than anyone on what players do behind the scenes to help a team win. Gardy's not unaware that Cuddyer's core numbers -- whether we're talking about average, OPS, homers, RBI -- were the lowest they've been since 2005 (outside of an injury-riddled 2008 campaign). I'm inclined to believe that Cuddyer is a more valuable guy to have on the roster than his statistics would suggest.
With that being said, there's almost no way to justify the $10.5 million he's going to make next year after the season he just had. Calling Cuddyer's numbers in 2010 mediocre is being kind; he spent the majority of his time playing offense-heavy positions (poorly) and came up with just a .271/.336/.417 line with 14 homers over 157 games.
Cuddyer's salary next year is tied up in a club option, but a strange stipulation in his contract forced the Twins to decide on that option after last year. At that point, Cuddy had just finished up perhaps the best campaign of his career, having posted an .862 OPS with 32 homers and 94 RBI with a late boost in September that was extremely significant in the team's surge for a division title.
So, the Twins activated his option with little hesitation. Had they faced that decision now, I'd have to think they would at least have to think twice. He's a $10 million wild card. In his best seasons, he's provided a key right-handed power bat in the middle of the lineup, but only twice in his career has he fulfilled that promise and for the most part he has been -- as Aaron Gleeman aptly puts it -- "a perfectly solid player who's paid like and treated as a star." To top it all off, Cuddyer just had surgery on a knee which he now says bothered him all season long.
The Twins already have a lot of money invested in wild cards next year. Joe Nathan will make $11.25 million in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Justin Morneau, whose status is completely uncertain after he missed the second half this year with a concussion, will make $14 million. And in Cuddyer, the Twins will be paying $10.5 million to a 32-year-old coming off a disappointing season and knee surgery.
No matter what you think about Cuddyer, there's simply no denying that his hefty guaranteed salary next year poses a serious conundrum for a team that is already staring at some considerable payroll issues. He's locked in and his contract is essentially unmovable, so the Twins are stuck with him at this point. Given the questions surrounding Morneau, it's nice to have a guy around who can competently cover at first base, but $10.5 million should buy you a lot more production than Cuddyer has given this team in three of the past four years, regardless of what he's providing off the field.
Some believe he's a consummate teammate whose willingness to move around the field extends his value drastically beyond what he does at the plate. Others believe his relatively poor defense at each position he can fill makes him a liability.
Some believe his ability to provide right-handed power has been vital to the success of a lefty-dominated lineup over the past several years. Others believe that, with his inconsistency and lack of clutch hitting at the dish, his offensive game is hugely overrated.
Some believe his effervescent and affable nature helps keep the clubhouse loose. Others believe his lack of fiery competitiveness is the type of thing that keeps the team from being able to step up to the big bad Yanks.
Regardless of where you fall in this debate, it's no secret how the Twins view Cuddyer. Ron Gardenhire called him the team's MVP earlier in the season, and while that statement is laughable based on Cuddy's production, John Bonnes was astute in pointing out a few weeks ago that the manager has a better grasp than anyone on what players do behind the scenes to help a team win. Gardy's not unaware that Cuddyer's core numbers -- whether we're talking about average, OPS, homers, RBI -- were the lowest they've been since 2005 (outside of an injury-riddled 2008 campaign). I'm inclined to believe that Cuddyer is a more valuable guy to have on the roster than his statistics would suggest.
With that being said, there's almost no way to justify the $10.5 million he's going to make next year after the season he just had. Calling Cuddyer's numbers in 2010 mediocre is being kind; he spent the majority of his time playing offense-heavy positions (poorly) and came up with just a .271/.336/.417 line with 14 homers over 157 games.
Cuddyer's salary next year is tied up in a club option, but a strange stipulation in his contract forced the Twins to decide on that option after last year. At that point, Cuddy had just finished up perhaps the best campaign of his career, having posted an .862 OPS with 32 homers and 94 RBI with a late boost in September that was extremely significant in the team's surge for a division title.
So, the Twins activated his option with little hesitation. Had they faced that decision now, I'd have to think they would at least have to think twice. He's a $10 million wild card. In his best seasons, he's provided a key right-handed power bat in the middle of the lineup, but only twice in his career has he fulfilled that promise and for the most part he has been -- as Aaron Gleeman aptly puts it -- "a perfectly solid player who's paid like and treated as a star." To top it all off, Cuddyer just had surgery on a knee which he now says bothered him all season long.
The Twins already have a lot of money invested in wild cards next year. Joe Nathan will make $11.25 million in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Justin Morneau, whose status is completely uncertain after he missed the second half this year with a concussion, will make $14 million. And in Cuddyer, the Twins will be paying $10.5 million to a 32-year-old coming off a disappointing season and knee surgery.
No matter what you think about Cuddyer, there's simply no denying that his hefty guaranteed salary next year poses a serious conundrum for a team that is already staring at some considerable payroll issues. He's locked in and his contract is essentially unmovable, so the Twins are stuck with him at this point. Given the questions surrounding Morneau, it's nice to have a guy around who can competently cover at first base, but $10.5 million should buy you a lot more production than Cuddyer has given this team in three of the past four years, regardless of what he's providing off the field.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
No Hook Needed for Cuddyer
Michael Cuddyer has a notorious reputation around the Twins clubhouse as an amateur magician. This season, though, his only trick has been creating two outs in one at-bat. Cuddyer leads the league in double plays grounded into with 12, and is currently on pace to shatter the all-time record of 36 set by Jim Rice back in 1984.
Double plays create more misdirected anger amongst fans than perhaps any other play in baseball. Yes, the twin killing is a frustrating outcome for an offense, as it wastes base runners and murders rallies. But, unlike a strikeout, the double play is not an obvious and blatant failure by the batter -- typically these are hard-hit balls that happen to roll right into an infielder's glove. Since batters can't really control exactly where a batted ball is going to go, the difference between a rally-extending hit through the hole and a morale-crushing DP is often a matter of luck. Cuddyer's luck this year has not been good.
Certainly, there's nothing in his numbers to suggest that the spike in double plays is a direct result of anything Cuddyer is doing wrong. He's not hitting the ball on the ground more; in fact, his 41.4 percent ground ball rate would be the lowest of his entire career. He's not even hitting into double plays at an astonishingly high rate; as Aaron Gleeman noted today, Cuddyer does not even rank among baseball's top ten in ground ball rate.
The chief culprit for Cuddyer's huge GIDP figure is abundant opportunity. When you happen to hit behind Justin Morneau, who leads the American League in on-base percentage and ranks second in walks, you're going to be batting quite often with a runner on first base. The GIDP bug would likely be biting anyone hitting behind Morneau with even a remote penchant for putting the ball on the ground. As such, the increasingly popular suggestion that Delmon Young -- who had been swinging a pretty good bat recently -- should be moved up to the fifth spot in the order to cut down on the double plays is flawed. Young is a far more GB-heavy hitter than Cuddyer and if he were hitting behind Morneau you can believe he'd be racking up the twin killings as well.
Ultimately, regardless of their recent trends, Cuddyer is a better hitter than Young and is the best right-handed hitter in the Twins lineup. His historical success against left-handed pitching makes him a good fit between Morneau and Jason Kubel (or Jim Thome), so there's no reason to believe Cuddyer should be moved out of that spot just because he has been slumping for a couple weeks. Let's not forget that in April, he posted a strong .825 OPS while leading the team in RBI. Clearly he can succeed in this role and shifting him down in the batting order would be nothing more than an overreaction to a slump.
With that being said, there's no denying that Cuddyer has been having a tough time lately, and it sure seems like he could stand to take a day off.
Double plays create more misdirected anger amongst fans than perhaps any other play in baseball. Yes, the twin killing is a frustrating outcome for an offense, as it wastes base runners and murders rallies. But, unlike a strikeout, the double play is not an obvious and blatant failure by the batter -- typically these are hard-hit balls that happen to roll right into an infielder's glove. Since batters can't really control exactly where a batted ball is going to go, the difference between a rally-extending hit through the hole and a morale-crushing DP is often a matter of luck. Cuddyer's luck this year has not been good.
Certainly, there's nothing in his numbers to suggest that the spike in double plays is a direct result of anything Cuddyer is doing wrong. He's not hitting the ball on the ground more; in fact, his 41.4 percent ground ball rate would be the lowest of his entire career. He's not even hitting into double plays at an astonishingly high rate; as Aaron Gleeman noted today, Cuddyer does not even rank among baseball's top ten in ground ball rate.
The chief culprit for Cuddyer's huge GIDP figure is abundant opportunity. When you happen to hit behind Justin Morneau, who leads the American League in on-base percentage and ranks second in walks, you're going to be batting quite often with a runner on first base. The GIDP bug would likely be biting anyone hitting behind Morneau with even a remote penchant for putting the ball on the ground. As such, the increasingly popular suggestion that Delmon Young -- who had been swinging a pretty good bat recently -- should be moved up to the fifth spot in the order to cut down on the double plays is flawed. Young is a far more GB-heavy hitter than Cuddyer and if he were hitting behind Morneau you can believe he'd be racking up the twin killings as well.
Ultimately, regardless of their recent trends, Cuddyer is a better hitter than Young and is the best right-handed hitter in the Twins lineup. His historical success against left-handed pitching makes him a good fit between Morneau and Jason Kubel (or Jim Thome), so there's no reason to believe Cuddyer should be moved out of that spot just because he has been slumping for a couple weeks. Let's not forget that in April, he posted a strong .825 OPS while leading the team in RBI. Clearly he can succeed in this role and shifting him down in the batting order would be nothing more than an overreaction to a slump.
With that being said, there's no denying that Cuddyer has been having a tough time lately, and it sure seems like he could stand to take a day off.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Position Analysis: Right Field
Likely Starter: Michael Cuddyer
2009 Stats: .276/.342/.520, 32 HR, 94 RBI
Potential Backups: Jason Kubel, Jacque Jones
Plodding right fielders who can hit post an 850 OPS while playing marginal defense aren't terribly uncommon, and that's basically the mold that Michael Cuddyer falls into. Yet, his value to the Twins stretches far beyond those traits.
He's the big right-handed power stick that can break up the big left-handed boppers in the middle of the Twins lineup. He's the cannon-armed defender who has kept even speedy runners from trying to take the extra base on hits to right field. He's the longest-tenured member of the Twins, a charismatic veteran and a clubhouse leader. One could argue that the $19 million Cuddyer will make over the next two seasons is exorbitant, given that players with his skill set are generally available at a lower cost. But the Twins are paying for a lot more than what shows up on the stat sheet.
Cuddyer demonstrated his value late in the 2009 season, when Justin Morneau's back injury forced the outfielder to don a first baseman's mitt and take over a position he'd barely played before during the most crucial stretch of the season. Cuddyer didn't complain; in fact, he stepped up and took his game to an all-new level, batting .325 and cranking eight homers while driving in 24 runs over the team's final 21 games. The Twins went 17-4 during that stretch, and Cuddyer -- who'd had a relatively mediocre season at that point -- was the offensive catalyst. Seeing him power the offense as he did during that final stretch has to make fans giddy to see what he'll be able to do this year, back in his natural position and sandwiched between two of the league's most feared left-handed power hitters.
Indeed, Cuddyer's 843 career OPS against southpaws looms large in the Twins' lefty-heavy lineup. He figures to garner plenty of RBI opportunities this year with a set of quality hitters in front of him. Health is always a concern for Cuddyer, who had his performance hampered in both 2007 and 2008 by injuries, but if he can stay healthy he'll be a crucial cog in the Twins' lineup. His range in the outfield is far from stellar, but much like the Metrodome, Target Field features a short right field wall that helps cover up for Cuddy's lack of foot speed.
From a visual standpoint, Cuddyer is not the most intimidating guy in the world. He's a red-cheeked Southern boy with a big smile usually smeared across his face. But there's no doubt that opposing pitchers feared him when he stepped up to the plate during those finals weeks of the 2009 season, and he'll likely be instilling similar fear this summer when he steps up to the plate as part of the parade of sluggers populating the middle part of the Twins' lineup.
Not too bad for a dime-a-dozen slugging corner outfielder.
Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Cuddyer: .275/.340/.500, 25 HR, 100 RBI
2009 Stats: .276/.342/.520, 32 HR, 94 RBI
Cuddyer brings big value to the Twins on and off the field.
Potential Backups: Jason Kubel, Jacque Jones
Plodding right fielders who can hit post an 850 OPS while playing marginal defense aren't terribly uncommon, and that's basically the mold that Michael Cuddyer falls into. Yet, his value to the Twins stretches far beyond those traits.
He's the big right-handed power stick that can break up the big left-handed boppers in the middle of the Twins lineup. He's the cannon-armed defender who has kept even speedy runners from trying to take the extra base on hits to right field. He's the longest-tenured member of the Twins, a charismatic veteran and a clubhouse leader. One could argue that the $19 million Cuddyer will make over the next two seasons is exorbitant, given that players with his skill set are generally available at a lower cost. But the Twins are paying for a lot more than what shows up on the stat sheet.
Cuddyer demonstrated his value late in the 2009 season, when Justin Morneau's back injury forced the outfielder to don a first baseman's mitt and take over a position he'd barely played before during the most crucial stretch of the season. Cuddyer didn't complain; in fact, he stepped up and took his game to an all-new level, batting .325 and cranking eight homers while driving in 24 runs over the team's final 21 games. The Twins went 17-4 during that stretch, and Cuddyer -- who'd had a relatively mediocre season at that point -- was the offensive catalyst. Seeing him power the offense as he did during that final stretch has to make fans giddy to see what he'll be able to do this year, back in his natural position and sandwiched between two of the league's most feared left-handed power hitters.
Indeed, Cuddyer's 843 career OPS against southpaws looms large in the Twins' lefty-heavy lineup. He figures to garner plenty of RBI opportunities this year with a set of quality hitters in front of him. Health is always a concern for Cuddyer, who had his performance hampered in both 2007 and 2008 by injuries, but if he can stay healthy he'll be a crucial cog in the Twins' lineup. His range in the outfield is far from stellar, but much like the Metrodome, Target Field features a short right field wall that helps cover up for Cuddy's lack of foot speed.
From a visual standpoint, Cuddyer is not the most intimidating guy in the world. He's a red-cheeked Southern boy with a big smile usually smeared across his face. But there's no doubt that opposing pitchers feared him when he stepped up to the plate during those finals weeks of the 2009 season, and he'll likely be instilling similar fear this summer when he steps up to the plate as part of the parade of sluggers populating the middle part of the Twins' lineup.
Not too bad for a dime-a-dozen slugging corner outfielder.
Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Cuddyer: .275/.340/.500, 25 HR, 100 RBI
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Cuddyer vs. Nathan: Who's Expendable?
The Twins' increased budget in the upcoming 2010 season has been a popular topic of conversation in many circles, and this blog has been no exception. But, as reports leak out that appealing free agents such as Orlando Hudson are seeking multi-year deals, it is pertinent to look ahead at how the team's payroll will shape up in 2011.
Travis Aune of the blog Travis Talks had a nice post earlier in the week examining this very subject. Travis lists out projected salary commitments for the 2011 season, and while he had to employ some guesswork (Joe Mauer's salary, various arbitration figures), his estimates seem reasonable. Even accounting for the subtracted salaries of Nick Punto, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Carl Pavano, who will be free agents, Travis arrives at an estimated total of $91 in commitments to 18 players. Depending on how high you believe the club's overall payroll will go next year (and Travis' estimate of $100 million seems fair), this doesn't leave a whole lot of money to fill the remaining spots on the 25-man roster.
This is most likely the reason the Twins have shied away from aggressively pursuing players like Hudson and Adrian Beltre, who clearly fit a need but are hesitant to settle for a one-year deal. The fact that the Twins were apparently willing to offer $5 million to Jarrod Washburn for this year suggests that Bill Smith is still willing to spend a bit more on the 2010 roster but is wary of the increase in commitments the following year.
If the Twins want to have a bit of financial flexibility to address holes in 2011 with something other than cheap rookies, they may need to dump salary in order to clear out some space. And as we look at the team's current contracts, there are two very obvious candidates for such a move: Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan, who will both be in the final guaranteed year of their lucrative contracts.
Cuddyer, whose '11 option was activated just after the conclusion of this past season, is scheduled to make $10.5M next year. And Nathan, who will be entering the final guaranteed year in his deal (though his does possess a $12.5M club option for 2012 with a $2 million buyout), will make $11.25M. Clearing either of those commitments from the books would create a significant amount of space to address other areas.
So now we have to ask ourselves: if it came down to it, which guy would we rather see go? I like both Cuddyer and Nathan and would prefer to have them both on the team, but if we're being realistic about finances there's no question that dealing one of them would be a logical move, particularly if they perform well this year and maintain solid trade value.
There are a number of considerations to weigh as we contemplate this decision. Which player is more valuable to the team, both on the field and off it? Which can be more easily replaced? Which will bring back more in a trade?
There really aren't any easy answers to these questions and opinions are sure to differ. As far as value, the Win Probability Added (WPA) metric suggests that Nathan has been worth an average of about 3.6 wins per season to the Twins over the past three years, whereas Cuddyer rings in at an average of 0.48 wins per season -- which was his exact figure last year. I'll note that I think WPA tends to exaggerate the value of closers, but that's a substantial gap nevertheless. Meanwhile, Wins Above Replacement pegs Nathan as having been worth 6.2 total wins over the last three years; Cuddyer 4.3. It's also worth noting that Nathan has shown a far greater ability to stay healthy.
It's difficult to quantify Cuddyer's value to the lineup overall as a threatening right-handed power hitter who can slot between Mauer and Justin Morneau, but at the same time it's difficult to quantify Nathan's value as a steady and dominant high-leverage reliever in a bullpen that has experienced its fair share of turnover and turmoil over the years.
Who's more replaceable? That question is even tougher than the last. The Twins have shown great aptitude with taking quality relievers and turning them into all-star closers over the years -- with Nathan and Eddie Guardado serving as prime examples -- but no one currently on the team looks like anything close to a slam-drunk replacement. Meanwhile, it isn't easy to find prime-aged right-handed hitters who can belt 30 homers on the cheap, although -- despite my pal Twins Geek's allusions to the contrary -- players of Cuddyer's ilk (weak defensive corner outfielders who can hit for power) are generally available at a reasonable cost. Marlon Byrd and Jack Cust are but two examples who have signed on the cheap already this offseason.
As far as trade value is concerned, that's really too sticky a topic for me to even dive into right now. Considering their price tags, only contending teams are likely to show interest in players like Nathan and Cuddyer, so the value of these two players on the trade market will likely be dictated by how many contending teams have needs at the positions they play. And again, much depends on how both players perform this year.
Cuddyer and Nathan were both key contributors to the Twins' past two AL Central title runs and are both well-liked core players. Yet, letting one of the two go after this season (or perhaps even during it, depending on the circumstances) is is an option that should at least be sitting in the back of our minds. Because even with the payroll boost that has come along with the new stadium, the Twins are headed for a tight budget in 2011 and could be in trouble if more holes emerge than the ones they've currently got.
Travis Aune of the blog Travis Talks had a nice post earlier in the week examining this very subject. Travis lists out projected salary commitments for the 2011 season, and while he had to employ some guesswork (Joe Mauer's salary, various arbitration figures), his estimates seem reasonable. Even accounting for the subtracted salaries of Nick Punto, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Carl Pavano, who will be free agents, Travis arrives at an estimated total of $91 in commitments to 18 players. Depending on how high you believe the club's overall payroll will go next year (and Travis' estimate of $100 million seems fair), this doesn't leave a whole lot of money to fill the remaining spots on the 25-man roster.
This is most likely the reason the Twins have shied away from aggressively pursuing players like Hudson and Adrian Beltre, who clearly fit a need but are hesitant to settle for a one-year deal. The fact that the Twins were apparently willing to offer $5 million to Jarrod Washburn for this year suggests that Bill Smith is still willing to spend a bit more on the 2010 roster but is wary of the increase in commitments the following year.
If the Twins want to have a bit of financial flexibility to address holes in 2011 with something other than cheap rookies, they may need to dump salary in order to clear out some space. And as we look at the team's current contracts, there are two very obvious candidates for such a move: Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan, who will both be in the final guaranteed year of their lucrative contracts.
Cuddyer, whose '11 option was activated just after the conclusion of this past season, is scheduled to make $10.5M next year. And Nathan, who will be entering the final guaranteed year in his deal (though his does possess a $12.5M club option for 2012 with a $2 million buyout), will make $11.25M. Clearing either of those commitments from the books would create a significant amount of space to address other areas.
So now we have to ask ourselves: if it came down to it, which guy would we rather see go? I like both Cuddyer and Nathan and would prefer to have them both on the team, but if we're being realistic about finances there's no question that dealing one of them would be a logical move, particularly if they perform well this year and maintain solid trade value.
There are a number of considerations to weigh as we contemplate this decision. Which player is more valuable to the team, both on the field and off it? Which can be more easily replaced? Which will bring back more in a trade?
There really aren't any easy answers to these questions and opinions are sure to differ. As far as value, the Win Probability Added (WPA) metric suggests that Nathan has been worth an average of about 3.6 wins per season to the Twins over the past three years, whereas Cuddyer rings in at an average of 0.48 wins per season -- which was his exact figure last year. I'll note that I think WPA tends to exaggerate the value of closers, but that's a substantial gap nevertheless. Meanwhile, Wins Above Replacement pegs Nathan as having been worth 6.2 total wins over the last three years; Cuddyer 4.3. It's also worth noting that Nathan has shown a far greater ability to stay healthy.
It's difficult to quantify Cuddyer's value to the lineup overall as a threatening right-handed power hitter who can slot between Mauer and Justin Morneau, but at the same time it's difficult to quantify Nathan's value as a steady and dominant high-leverage reliever in a bullpen that has experienced its fair share of turnover and turmoil over the years.
Who's more replaceable? That question is even tougher than the last. The Twins have shown great aptitude with taking quality relievers and turning them into all-star closers over the years -- with Nathan and Eddie Guardado serving as prime examples -- but no one currently on the team looks like anything close to a slam-drunk replacement. Meanwhile, it isn't easy to find prime-aged right-handed hitters who can belt 30 homers on the cheap, although -- despite my pal Twins Geek's allusions to the contrary -- players of Cuddyer's ilk (weak defensive corner outfielders who can hit for power) are generally available at a reasonable cost. Marlon Byrd and Jack Cust are but two examples who have signed on the cheap already this offseason.
As far as trade value is concerned, that's really too sticky a topic for me to even dive into right now. Considering their price tags, only contending teams are likely to show interest in players like Nathan and Cuddyer, so the value of these two players on the trade market will likely be dictated by how many contending teams have needs at the positions they play. And again, much depends on how both players perform this year.
Cuddyer and Nathan were both key contributors to the Twins' past two AL Central title runs and are both well-liked core players. Yet, letting one of the two go after this season (or perhaps even during it, depending on the circumstances) is is an option that should at least be sitting in the back of our minds. Because even with the payroll boost that has come along with the new stadium, the Twins are headed for a tight budget in 2011 and could be in trouble if more holes emerge than the ones they've currently got.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Left Out
After recording impressive victories on Friday and Saturday night, the Twins fell to the Indians 4-2 in yesterday's series finale to leave Cleveland with a series victory rather than a sweep. It was a good weekend for the Twins, but it's not too difficult to see why they were unable to pick up a win yesterday against left-handed starter Aaron Laffey.
Coming into the game, here were the numbers for the Twins' right-handed middle-of-the-lineup hitters against southpaws:
Michael Cuddyer: .188/.272/.385
Delmon Young: .188/.235/.375
Joe Crede: .286/.333/.500
Only Crede has been having any success against lefties so far in this young season. In total, the three hitters were 2-for-11 in the game, with both the hits being singles. The Twins need these three to step up their performance against left-handers so the offense won't be completely screwed on days where the big lefty bats -- Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel -- struggle as they did yesterday.
Of course, the impetus also falls on the team's other right-handed hitters, such as Brendan Harris (hitting .267 vs. LHP), Carlos Gomez (hitting .143 vs. LHP). The team's regular switch-hitters, Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla, have gone a combined 1-for-36 against southpaws.
Struggling against left-handers is nothing new for the Twins, but it's really not excusable given with the number of right-handed batters they can trot out against any lefty. Joe Mauer's return should provide an overall jolt to the lineup but shouldn't be expected to help them specifically in this area. Instead, the responsibility falls on guys like Cuddyer and Young to do their job and step up when left-handed pitchers are suppressing the team's big lefty bats.
Coming into the game, here were the numbers for the Twins' right-handed middle-of-the-lineup hitters against southpaws:
Michael Cuddyer: .188/.272/.385
Delmon Young: .188/.235/.375
Joe Crede: .286/.333/.500
Only Crede has been having any success against lefties so far in this young season. In total, the three hitters were 2-for-11 in the game, with both the hits being singles. The Twins need these three to step up their performance against left-handers so the offense won't be completely screwed on days where the big lefty bats -- Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel -- struggle as they did yesterday.
Of course, the impetus also falls on the team's other right-handed hitters, such as Brendan Harris (hitting .267 vs. LHP), Carlos Gomez (hitting .143 vs. LHP). The team's regular switch-hitters, Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla, have gone a combined 1-for-36 against southpaws.
Struggling against left-handers is nothing new for the Twins, but it's really not excusable given with the number of right-handed batters they can trot out against any lefty. Joe Mauer's return should provide an overall jolt to the lineup but shouldn't be expected to help them specifically in this area. Instead, the responsibility falls on guys like Cuddyer and Young to do their job and step up when left-handed pitchers are suppressing the team's big lefty bats.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Position Analysis: Right Field
Projected Starter: Michael Cuddyer
2008 Stats: .249/.330/.369, 3 HR, 36 RBI
Potential Backups: Delmon Young, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Jason Pridie
Michael Cuddyer is one of the biggest wild cards for the 2009 Minnesota Twins. If he can simply stay on the field, he should be expected to post numbers around his career line of .268/.344/.441. If he can actually stay fully healthy for the entire season, we could see him return to the level he was at in 2006. Either of those outcomes would be a significant upgrade over what either he or Delmon Young did last season. Cuddyer’s presence in the lineup figures to lead to an improvement, one way or another.
It’s now been two full years since 2006, when Cuddyer seemingly had a breakout season that entrenched him as that crucial right-handed bat which could be wedged between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the lineup. Cuddyer played solidly over the first half of the 2007 season, but injuries caused him to struggle over the final couple months. Last year, more injuries limited Cuddyer to just 71 games, and even when he managed to play his ailments weighed on him, causing him to post the worst numbers of his career.
Cuddyer’s standing in the clubhouse and his hefty contract guarantee him the starting job in right field to start the year, but his leash may not be terribly long. With Denard Span figuring to take the majority of playing time in left field, Young will be without a regular spot. Since right field is the position Young is best suited for, he stands as a ready replacement for Cuddyer in the event of another rash of injuries or poor performance.
I get the sense that Cuddyer is exasperated with the injuries he’s dealt with over the past two seasons and is very motivated to stay healthy and productive this season. While I’m not convinced he will ever again post the type of numbers he did in ’06, he definitely seems poised for a rebound. If he can hit for a decent average while posting an on-base percentage in the .360 range and smacking 30-35 doubles with 15-20 homers, Cuddyer will be a fine offensive player and a good fit in the middle of the lineup along with the big bats of Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and (hopefully) Joe Mauer.
If Cuddyer succumbs to injuries once again, Young should be the man to step in. Young is well suited for right field in the Metrodome, where his limited range is less of a liability since there isn’t as much ground to cover as the other outfield spots, and where his tremendous arm is most effectively utilized. I found Ron Gardenhire’s decision to use Young in left and Span in right last year to be mystifying, so hopefully if Cuddyer goes down this year the roles of those two players will be swapped. I won’t predict Young’s specific numbers during the Position Analysis series since he doesn’t project as a regular starter at any one position (he seems likely to split time between LF, RF and DH), but for what it’s worth I do expect Young to take a solid stride forward this year, and maybe post numbers closer to the .295/.340/.480 line I overzealously predicted from him last year.
Having Young in place as a backup plan for Span and Cuddyer puts the Twins in a pretty comfortable position as far as their corner outfield spots go. When I wrote up the left field analysis earlier this week I explained that I don’t expect a large regression from Span, so Young’s best shot at landing a regular spot at a particular position might be in right field. He’ll see some time there, I’m sure, but I foresee Cuddyer staying healthy for most of the year, holding down the right field job and adequately filling the No. 5 spot in the batting order.
Predicted 2009 Hitting Line for Cuddyer: .265/.355/.450, 15 HR, 80 RBI
2008 Stats: .249/.330/.369, 3 HR, 36 RBI
Potential Backups: Delmon Young, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Jason PridieMichael Cuddyer is one of the biggest wild cards for the 2009 Minnesota Twins. If he can simply stay on the field, he should be expected to post numbers around his career line of .268/.344/.441. If he can actually stay fully healthy for the entire season, we could see him return to the level he was at in 2006. Either of those outcomes would be a significant upgrade over what either he or Delmon Young did last season. Cuddyer’s presence in the lineup figures to lead to an improvement, one way or another.
It’s now been two full years since 2006, when Cuddyer seemingly had a breakout season that entrenched him as that crucial right-handed bat which could be wedged between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the lineup. Cuddyer played solidly over the first half of the 2007 season, but injuries caused him to struggle over the final couple months. Last year, more injuries limited Cuddyer to just 71 games, and even when he managed to play his ailments weighed on him, causing him to post the worst numbers of his career.
Cuddyer’s standing in the clubhouse and his hefty contract guarantee him the starting job in right field to start the year, but his leash may not be terribly long. With Denard Span figuring to take the majority of playing time in left field, Young will be without a regular spot. Since right field is the position Young is best suited for, he stands as a ready replacement for Cuddyer in the event of another rash of injuries or poor performance.
I get the sense that Cuddyer is exasperated with the injuries he’s dealt with over the past two seasons and is very motivated to stay healthy and productive this season. While I’m not convinced he will ever again post the type of numbers he did in ’06, he definitely seems poised for a rebound. If he can hit for a decent average while posting an on-base percentage in the .360 range and smacking 30-35 doubles with 15-20 homers, Cuddyer will be a fine offensive player and a good fit in the middle of the lineup along with the big bats of Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and (hopefully) Joe Mauer.
If Cuddyer succumbs to injuries once again, Young should be the man to step in. Young is well suited for right field in the Metrodome, where his limited range is less of a liability since there isn’t as much ground to cover as the other outfield spots, and where his tremendous arm is most effectively utilized. I found Ron Gardenhire’s decision to use Young in left and Span in right last year to be mystifying, so hopefully if Cuddyer goes down this year the roles of those two players will be swapped. I won’t predict Young’s specific numbers during the Position Analysis series since he doesn’t project as a regular starter at any one position (he seems likely to split time between LF, RF and DH), but for what it’s worth I do expect Young to take a solid stride forward this year, and maybe post numbers closer to the .295/.340/.480 line I overzealously predicted from him last year.
Having Young in place as a backup plan for Span and Cuddyer puts the Twins in a pretty comfortable position as far as their corner outfield spots go. When I wrote up the left field analysis earlier this week I explained that I don’t expect a large regression from Span, so Young’s best shot at landing a regular spot at a particular position might be in right field. He’ll see some time there, I’m sure, but I foresee Cuddyer staying healthy for most of the year, holding down the right field job and adequately filling the No. 5 spot in the batting order.
Predicted 2009 Hitting Line for Cuddyer: .265/.355/.450, 15 HR, 80 RBI
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Blind Loyalty
When Michael Cuddyer suffered a fractured foot after being hit with a line drive during a rehab stint in the minors in early August, it seemed time to chalk 2008 up as a lost season for the right fielder. The best-case scenario had Cuddyer returning with just a few weeks left of the season, and with no minor-league seasons still going on, he wouldn't be able to get back up to speed at a lower level before joining the team. The success experienced by Denard Span after replacing Cuddyer in right field made it seem all the more likely that Cuddyer was done contributing this season.
Yet, for whatever reason, the Twins have been aggressively pushing to get Cuddyer back into action here in the final weeks of the season. He came on as a pinch-hitter in games on Saturday and Sunday, and just a day after saying that Cuddyer was not an option to start because he couldn't run on his foot, Ron Gardenhire inserted him as the starting designated hitter last night. My question is, why?
Prior to his pinch-hit appearance in Saturday's game, Cuddyer had not taken a major-league at-bat since late June. As aforementioned, he wasn't able to go on a minor-league rehab stint before returning to the team this time, so he hasn't experienced live game action since he hurt his foot. He's gone 1-for-5 and hasn't looked good at the plate. He can't run well because his foot is still bothering him. Furthermore, Span has done an excellent job of filling in in right field while Randy Ruiz has been solid as a right-handed bat off the bench. There is essentially no reason to be giving at-bats to Cuddyer at this point other than blind loyalty and commitment to his newly minted contract. With the Twins a game out of first place with 12 games left to play, their priorities should be arranged a bit differently.
Yet, for whatever reason, the Twins have been aggressively pushing to get Cuddyer back into action here in the final weeks of the season. He came on as a pinch-hitter in games on Saturday and Sunday, and just a day after saying that Cuddyer was not an option to start because he couldn't run on his foot, Ron Gardenhire inserted him as the starting designated hitter last night. My question is, why?
Prior to his pinch-hit appearance in Saturday's game, Cuddyer had not taken a major-league at-bat since late June. As aforementioned, he wasn't able to go on a minor-league rehab stint before returning to the team this time, so he hasn't experienced live game action since he hurt his foot. He's gone 1-for-5 and hasn't looked good at the plate. He can't run well because his foot is still bothering him. Furthermore, Span has done an excellent job of filling in in right field while Randy Ruiz has been solid as a right-handed bat off the bench. There is essentially no reason to be giving at-bats to Cuddyer at this point other than blind loyalty and commitment to his newly minted contract. With the Twins a game out of first place with 12 games left to play, their priorities should be arranged a bit differently.
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